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May 14, 2025
OUTDOOR CONDITIONS
The early May rain delivered a recharge to the Upper Rio Grande Basin, and perhaps there’s more snowmelt coming from the higher elevations that forecasters haven’t yet figured out?
Craig Cotten of the Colorado Division of Water Resources, in speaking at this week’s May 13 meeting of the Rio Grande Basin Roundtable, said airborne snow forecasts are predicting “much higher” streamflows on the Rio Grande and Conejos than the other two sources the state relies on to make its predictions – U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and National Weather Service.
Cotten explained the state division of water resources uses all three sources to help it forecast the depths and the amount of water in the rivers. Colorado is forecasting 390,000 acre-feet this water year on the Rio Grande and 180,000 acre-feet on the Conejos – both measurements at around 60 percent of the long-term averages for the river system.
While NRCS and National Weather Service have been predicting low river flows from a light snow year, the Colorado Airborne Snow Measurement Program and its ASO Snow Survey has data that suggests “much higher” streamflows and is a source of information that the state is “trying to figure out what’s going on,” Cotten said.
“We still think it’s not going to be a great year on any of our stream systems,” he said.