Click on the thumbnail graphics for the current statewide snowpack map along with the Basin High/Low graphs for the South Platte and Arkansas river basins from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

The allocation committee of the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District on Thursday voted to recommend that about 65 percent of the water from the Fryingpan-Arkansas Project go to farms this year. The district board will consider the action next week…

The bad news: There isn’t much water. The Bureau of Reclamation’s May 1 projection for Fry-Ark imports from the Colorado River basin was 12,400 acre-feet, about one-fourth of average. So far, about 4,000 acre-feet have moved — and moved earlier than usual…

In the end, the district staff estimated about 9,900 acre-feet will be available for allocation this year, after evaporation, transit loss and obligations are accounted for. Of that, about 3,500 will go to municipal use, and nearly 6,400 acre-feet to farms. The ag allocations are spread out under a formula that incorporates eligible acres among nine canals and 15 smaller ditches or farms.

There will be a ripple effect because of smaller than projected return flows, which well groups rely on for part of their augmentation water. However augmentation plans are likely to be rewritten as farmers scale back operations to match conditions.

From the Leadville Herald-Democrat:

The latest snow surveys conducted by the NRCS show that most low- and mid- elevation-measurement locations have little or no snow, and the higher-elevation sites are well-below average and rapidly melting. The May 1 statewide snowpack report reflects this; measuring just 19 percent of average. For the second month in a row, statewide snowpack conditions match those recorded during the record-setting drought year of 2002. In the Arkansas River Basin, snowpack is at 25 percent of average and 22 percent of the amount measured at this time last year.

From The Aspen Times (Janet Urquhart):

This year’s runoff throughout the Colorado River Basin is expected to be about 50 percent of average. No one is predicting flows of 870 cubic feet per second in the lower Fryingpan River below the Ruedi Dam this year (it was flowing at about 120 cfs Thursday), but Ruedi Reservoir could be employed to help ease late-summer drought conditions on the Western Slope, according to Don Meyer, senior water resources engineer for the Colorado River District. The reservoir might not fill this summer but could inch above 100,000 acre-feet under the most optimistic projections, according to Tim Miller, of the Bureau of Reclamation. The reservoir is considered full at 102,369 acre-feet…

The reservoir might send very little water to the Front Range this year through the Fry-Ark transmountain diversion, Miller added. On average, 54,000 acre-feet are sent from the upper Fryingpan drainage to the far side of the Continental Divide. Last year, 98,000 acre-feet went east, but this year, about 12,430 acre-feet are expected to be diverted…

Between drought mitigation and other calls on Ruedi, flows could bump up to the 300-cfs range on the lower Fryingpan come August, which is not unusual, giving a boost to the Roaring Fork below its confluence with the Pan. The upper Fork, however, could see low flows and high enough water temperatures to harm the fishery if dry weather persists, Meyer said. The Roaring Fork at Glenwood Springs hit about 1,100 cfs last weekend, according to Meyer, and could do the same this weekend. A peak of about 1,500 is projected, he said…

The Colorado at Glenwood hit about 3,500 cfs last weekend and could do so again in the next couple of days, matching what is predicted to be the peak this season, he said. The high water is about a month ahead of last year’s peak.

From the Fort Collins Coloradodan (Kevin Duggan):

Drought conditions and historically low snowpack levels are not expected to translate into mandatory water-use restrictions this year in Fort Collins…

Supplies are strong enough that [Fort Collins] likely will be able to “carry over” up to 8,000 acre feet of water in local reservoirs for next year’s use. An acre foot of water is enough to meet the needs of two American families of four for a year…

Fort Collins’ main water sources are the Poudre River, where the city holds senior water rights, and Horsetooth Reservoir through the Colorado-Big Thompson system administered by the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District.

Because of the dry conditions, the district has agreed to provide a high amount of water this year to share owners. With its strong supply and limited storage capacity, the city plans to rent 5,600 acre feet of water to area farmers.

Here’s the release from Colorado State University (Emily Narvaes Wilmsen):

As large as a grapefruit? A DVD? A softball? Just how big is the record-holding hailstone in Colorado? Colorado State University State Climatologist Nolan Doesken can list at least 18 separate reports of hail stones as large as 4.5 inches in diameter, but few have been officially confirmed.

His office is now officially tracking these statistics – just in time for spring storms like the one that hit Colorado’s eastern Plains earlier this month, leaving piles of hail on roads and farms.

“Chances are there are at least 50 people in eastern Colorado who will say, ‘What the heck, we’ve seen way bigger hail than that!’” Doesken said. “That’s good, but they will need to prove their claim – by providing the stone itself or eyewitness reports along with excellent photos showing the stone with rulers or other known objects.”

Doesken’s Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State, working in tandem with the four National Weather Service offices that serve Colorado (Boulder, Pueblo, Grand Junction and Goodland, Kan.), have developed procedures for documenting hailstones including how to get a good photo, measure the maximum diameter and circumference, preserve the stone and contact appropriate officials. For instructions, examples and contact information, go to http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/hail.php.

In the meantime, Doesken encourages volunteers who observe large hail in Colorado to first report to the National Weather Service or to local law enforcement agencies. The National Weather Service can convey reports of damaging hail to a wider audience through National Weather Service alerts. Large-hail reports provide valuable ground truth which will be helpful for issuance of additional warnings.

“When it’s safe to go out again, retrieve the largest stones and freeze them as soon as possible to avoid further melting,” Doesken said. “Use a ruler to get an accurate measure of the diameter and a flexible or strong tape or string to measure the circumference. If an accurate scale is available, weigh the stone. Preserve the stone by tightly wrapping and sealing it in an air-tight bag.”

If the stone is 4.5 inches in diameter or greater, contact the Colorado Climate Center at (970) 491-8545 or nolan@atmos.colostate.edu.
People who have kept hailstones in their freezer will be disappointed to know the stones lose mass over time, Doesken said. Even if they are tightly wrapped, the ice structure changes with time. But changes will occur more slowly if they are sealed up air tight.

Doesken got the idea for a hailstone repository while he was a member of the executive committee of American Association of State Climatologists. Several neighboring states including Nebraska, South Dakota and Kansas have established new records in recent years. A stone that was eight inches in diameter fell in Vivian, S.D., on July 23, 2010 – almost the size of a football. For more information on that stone, go to http://www.crh.noaa.gov/abr/?n=stormdamagetemplate.

“I don’t believe Colorado has ever had hail that big – and I hope we never do,” Doesken said. “But stones don’t need to be that big to cause damage.

You can really get pummeled with stones that are 1 inch in diameter. Even golf-ball sized hail, which most people don’t realize is nearly 2 inches in diameter, can do serious damage. Crops and gardens can be badly damaged by hail that may only be pea-sized.”

“The motivation has been that other states have been establishing these repositories and Colorado should have done this long ago,” he said. “If you’re going to get hit with something that big, you might as well take some credit for it.”

Doesken has been tracking hail data for more than 30 years. Fort Collins was one of the locations hit with 4.5-inch diameter hail on July 30, 1979.

In 1998, Doesken established a volunteer precipitation monitoring network in Colorado known as the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network, or CoCoRaHS. The network is now in all 50 states with more than 15,000 volunteers. Data from the volunteers improves precipitation monitoring and helps provide detailed storm analysis, drought, water supply and other water decision-making information to municipalities, homeowners, industries, utility providers, resource managers and educators. The program continues to seek volunteers. To volunteer, go to http://www.cocorahs.org/.

Guide for hailstone size (diameter measurement listed)

Ping pong ball – 1.5 inches
Golf ball –1.75 inches
Tennis ball – 2.5 inches
Baseball – 2.75 inches
Hockey puck – 3 inches
Softball – 4 inches
Grapefruit – 4.5 inches
CD/DVD – 4.75 inches

Click on the thumbnail graphics for the current statewide snowpack map, the Yampa/White Basin High/Low graph and the Gunnison Basin High/Low graph from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

From The Aspen Times:

Some long-range forecasts call for a wet July and August following extremely dry weather in May and June — which is why Denver Water officials are using a mid-range forecast to dictate their management decisions. Still, others take a more cautious approach…

Dillon Reservoir is just one of the municipal water provider’s storage units, but it will be affected, said Bob Steger, manager of water resources for the utility. Typically, the South Platte River is the go-to source for Denver’s water, but though the basin fared better with snowfall than the Colorado River basin, it wasn’t by much. Even with modest forecasts, the Dillon Reservoir is expected to drop below Frisco Bay Marina’s operating levels — causing it to anchor docks in the deeper water to maintain customer service. Estimates are a drop of as much as 25 feet by September. Downstream from Dillon Reservoir, Green Mountain Reservoir is 59 percent full. Dillon Reservoir is 94 percent full. The average is 84 percent full.

From the Summit County Citizens Voice (Bob Berwyn):

A flow management program [ed. Arkansas River voluntary flow program] developed in the 1980s serves as a statewide model for cooperative agreements on how to meet recreational, environmental and municipal and agricultural needs during years when water is in short supply. White said he’s hopeful the stakeholders will be able to make the agreement work to the benefit of boaters this year…

The voluntary flow program was crafted in the 1990’s by what is now Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Colorado Trout Unlimited, the Southeastern Colorado Water Conservancy District, the Colorado Department of Natural Resources and the Arkansas River Outfitters Association. Administered by the Bureau of Reclamation, the Flow Program provides water management guidelines that benefit the fishery and provide for whitewater flows in the Arkansas River for recreation users, including commercial outfitters and private boaters, in the spring and summer months. Meetings throughout the month of May will help determine how much water municipalities and other water managers will be able to contribute to this year’s program.

From the Longmont Times-Call (Scott Rochat):

On Wednesday, it was time for Firestone’s town board to take up a dry topic — namely, the town’s drought management plan. Still in its draft stages, the plan would allow for restrictions if Firestone’s water supply slips below 110 percent of its demand. The restrictions could deepen further if the water supply reaches genuine shortages, getting below 100 percent or 90 percent of demand…

Both Steve Nguyen of Clear Water Solutions (who prepared the draft) and town manager Wes LaVanchy said it was good to see the town developing a plan ahead of a drought…

The plan soon will be available on the town’s website, ci.firestone.co.us/index.html. Public comment on the plan will be taken for 60 days, beginning today. A preliminary version, which will receive some minor editing this week, is already on the site in the town board’s packet; click on “Town Board,” “TB Agenda/Packet” and then “Meeting Packet.”

From The Valley Courier (Ruth Heide):

Colorado Division of Water Resources Division 3 Division Engineer Craig Cotten reported to members of the Rio Grande Roundtable on Tuesday that the Rio Grande Basin snowpack is about 18 percent of average right now. He said the basin is about a month early as far as runoff. Many of the rivers have already peaked or are at their peak this week. “It is not looking real good,” he said.

He added that the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) forecasts for both the Rio Grande and Conejos River systems dropped significantly from April to May. Last month the NRCS was predicting an annual flow for the Rio Grande of 465,000 acre feet. This week that forecast was down to 380,000 acre feet…

Of the forecasted flow, 93,200 acre feet must be delivered to the state line to meet Rio Grande Compact obligations. A large portion of that has already been delivered or will be delivered through the winter months, so the current curtailment on the Rio Grande is only 2 percent.

On the Conejos, the current curtailment is 0 percent, Cotten said. He said the Rio Grande Compact obligation to downstream states on the Conejos will be met with what has been delivered so far and what will be delivered after the irrigation season ends this winter, “so we don’t need to curtail ditches on the Conejos system at all to get water to the downstream states.”

The NRCS forecast for the Conejos River system also declined from April to May, he added. In April the NRCS predicted 215,000 acre feet on the Conejos, and this week the forecast was only 180,000 acre feet, about 54 percent of the long-term average.

From the Summit Daily News (Janice Kurbjin):

“The long-term weather forecast is for warmer, drier weather in the foreseeable future,” said Troy Wineland, the district’s new water commissioner. “The picture isn’t altogether pretty at the moment.” Wineland was one of the speakers at Tuesday’s State of the River, an annual meeting hosted by the Colorado River District and its partners. Blue River Watershed Group helped to put on the Summit County event. It’s held every spring to give citizens a chance to understand what’s happening in their watershed, the demands on water resources, and projects that are underway to facilitate water management…

Listeners at the State of the River annual meeting suggested Denver Water officials raise the drought stage to stay ahead of the problem. “It’s not good enough,” said Matt Wade of Ten Mile Creek Kayaks in Frisco. “If we don’t have a crystal ball, shouldn’t we be proactive and have stricter water regulations in Denver to play it safe?” His comment was met with a smattering of applause.

“The philosophy of our drought response plan are that our actions are commensurate with the situation,” [Bob] Steger said, adding that Denver Water board members may choose to heighten the alert, but that hasn’t happened yet.

From the Sky-Hi Daily News (Tonya Bina):

Snowpack measurements for the Upper Colorado basin are the lowest in 45 years, according to the latest Natural Resources Conservation Service readings. At 21 percent of average, the Upper Colorado is at 6 percentage points lower than the previous record set in 2002. The “melt-out at many sites in Colorado this year has been four to six weeks earlier than normal,” states a May 1 Colorado Water Supply Outlook Report produced by the Natural Resources Conservation Service. “It is likely that, barring well above-average spring and summer precipitation, peak flows have already occurred in many basins,” the report reads…

…Eric Kuhn, general manager of the Colorado River District, cautions Front Range and West Slope utilities not to be “lulled into inaction by relatively good reservoir storage,” according to a Colorado River District April newsletter reporting on the district’s quarterly board of directors meeting.

“One of the lessons of 2002 was that municipal users of West Slope water were slow to recognize the drought that year and institute watering restrictions,” the newsletter states, paraphrasing Kuhn. “The result was that reservoirs were hit hard that summer before restrictions were implemented, putting the utilities in a poor storage position for the ensuing year.”

The majority of the state’s streams and rivers are poised to produce just 20 to 40 percent of average volumes during the high water-demand season.

Here are the summaries from yesterday’s webinar from the Colorado Climate Center. Click on the thumbnail graphic for the precipitation summary.

Click on the thumbnail graphics for the current statewide snowpack map and the Basin High/Low graph for the San Miguel/Dolores/Animas/San Juan basins from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. The area is about 2 to 2.5 inches of SWE ahead of 2002.

From The Greeley Tribune (Eric Brown):

Welcome rains trickled down on a parched Weld County on Sunday night and into Monday morning, providing a bit of relief for [Dave] Petrocco, other farmers and municipal water officials who so far this year have been dealing with historically low precipitation amounts…

In Greeley, rainfall amounted to .43 inches during the 24-hour period between 5:30 p.m. Sunday and 5:30 p.m. Monday, according to figures recorded at the University of Northern Colorado. It was the most precipitation the city had received in a 24-hour period so far this year…

Until this week’s storm, the Greeley area had received only about 1.5 inches of precipitation this year — the third-lowest amount on record for the city. The average through the end of April is 3.81 inches…

City of Greeley Water and Sewer Department Director Jon Monson said that — because of the unusually dry and hot conditions, and because of extensive lawn-watering by residents — the city’s treatment facilities were releasing about 35 million gallons of water per day last week. That’s about 40 percent more than in previous years, he added.

The Pueblo Chieftain’s excellent reporter, Chris Woodka, tackles the topic of population growth in this column. Click through and read the whole column. Here’s an excerpt:

Sometimes, a newcomer to the discussions the state is having about water will meekly raise a hand or boldly stand and say something stupid like: “You know, there is only so much water available here in Colorado. Why don’t we talk about limiting growth?”

And the water intelligentsia just roll their eyes and hold their noses as if the interloper had made the mistake of publicly using one of the low-flow toilets on display in the exhibition room across the hall.

Click on the thumbnail graphics for the statewide snowpack map, the Upper Colorado River Basin High/Low graph and the South Platte Basin High/Low graph from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

Showers late Sunday night and throughout the day Monday deposited about 0.30 inches of rain in the Pueblo area, and more could be in store for the next month. “Certainly there is some short-term relief,” said Randy Gray, of the National Weather Service station at Pueblo Memorial Airport. “Until the end of the month, it looks like we’re in a good position to get more.” The weather system that produced rain in Pueblo covered most of the eastern part of the state, leaving anywhere from half an inch at Fort Collins to nearly an inch near Trinidad. Snowfall was reported in the mountains…The rainfall was the most Pueblo had seen since the beginning of April, when 0.45 inches was recorded. Still, this is the time of year when more showers are expected. Overall, April was dry, just 57 percent of average.

From the Fort Collins Coloradoan (Bobby Magill):

More than 0.6 of an inch of rain fell in most areas of [Fort Collins] y during the storm – more than the city has received since Feb. 4, said Wendy Ryan, a researcher at the Colorado Climate Center at CSU. Colorado State University climatologist Nolan Doesken said the rainfall dumped about a week’s worth of precipitation on the area in one evening. “The amount of precipitation we received (Sunday into Monday) is about what we normally get in a week-to-10-day period in an average May,” Doesken said. “It’s a week’s worth of precipitation. It’s wonderful. It’ll make things green.”[…]

Scientists who determine drought conditions in the region likely will keep the Fort Collins area listed under severe drought conditions until another wet storm moves through, he said. Ryan said only 1.79 inches of precipitation have fallen in Fort Collins since Jan. 1, putting the city 3.18 inches below normal for the year…

A chance for rain and thunderstorms in northeast Colorado will return to the forecast toward the end of the week with a cold front coming out of the northwest, meteorologist Julie Soper of DayWeaether in Cheyenne, Wyo., said.

Click here to download your own copy. Thanks to Mage Skordahl (Natural Resources Conservation Service) for sending the link along in email. She certainly picked an interesting year to take over the snow survey reporting.

Click on the thumbnail graphic for the May 1 streamflow forecast map for Colorado. The map mirrors the snowpack map except for four sub-basins along the southern border of Colorado. Here’s a preview of the report:

As we head into the high water demand season, the prospects for improved runoff conditions continue to diminish. The continuation of dry conditions in April resulted in significant reductions in streamflow forecasts for the second month in a row. Most of those decreases ranged from 5 to 20 percentage points. The highest forecasts in the state, which are still calling for less than 50 percent of average volumes, are in the Upper Rio Grande River basin and in the rivers in the southwest corner of the state. The majority of the state’s streams and rivers are expected to produce only 20 to 40 percent of average volumes. The lowest runoff volumes are expected in northern Colorado, where streamflows are expected to be 15 to 30 percent of average. With much of the meager snowpack already melted we can only hope for abnormally wet conditions for the remainder of this spring and into the summer to alleviate shortages.

Data from the storm over the weekend and yesterday is not reflected in the report. In 2010 there were two separate peaks in the South Platte basin in May. Last year we saw three peaks during May. One of my colleagues tells me, “You sound like a farmer.” I guess it’s a glass half-full way of thinking. I have talked to one farmer who is not planting part of his place this year fearing the lack of ditch water late in the season for finishing corn.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Chris Woodka):

A drought preparedness workshop will be from 10 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. May 15 at the Colorado State Fairgrounds in the Creative Arts Building, 1001 Beulah Ave. Registration will start at 9:30 a.m. The outlook for water supply, agricultural risk management and managing weeds will be among the topics to be discussed.

More drought coverage from Scott N. Miller writing for the Vail Daily. From the article:

A group of representatives of those businesses — members of the local chapter of the Associated Landscape Contractors of Colorado — gathered Friday at Donovan Pavilion for updates about topics including this summer’s water supply prospects and drought-tolerant plants. When Mike Earl, of Land Designs by Ellison, was putting the May meeting together in February, Diane Johnson, of the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, told him she didn’t really want to talk about drought just yet. After Colorado’s driest March on record, it was time to talk about water supplies, Johnson said…

Todd Fessenden, the district’s operations manager, said that for now, the standard outdoor watering regulations are in effect — people water every other day except Monday based on their street addresses. If the district declares a “supply emergency” though, virtually all outdoor watering will be banned, whether in specific areas or across the entire eastern part of the valley.

From the Estes Park Trail (Julie Harvey):

“Our source of water is more than enough,” [Estes Park Mayor Bill Pinkham] told residents attending the chat at the Art Center last Wednesday. “We’re fortunate because of the water allocation (at) headwater and leases. You’ll hear about that at the next (town) board meeting.”

From KUSA.com (Megan Fitzgerald):

Typically, the snow run off fills up ditches and farmers are able to irrigate their crops, but that’s not the case this year. Farmers say the surface water could run out at any time and their options for taking care of their fields will be limited.

“It’s a huge issue, I consider water more valuable than gold. We can’t survive without it,” Glen Fritzler, a Weld County farmer said.

Fritzler and his family have been farming for generations. He says it’s all he knows and it’s the only job he would want to do. But, now that the surface water supply is running out, Fritzler says his only option is well water. But even that is limited ever since the drought in 2002.

“We cannot operate our wells like we have in the past or like we need to to grow out produce,” Fritzler says.

From the Fairplay Flume (Lynda James):

Drought conditions in the Upper South Platte sub-basin, which includes Park County, harken back to 2002, when Colorado was hit by the largest wildfire in its history, the Hayman fire, which started in Park County. As of May 1, snowpack in the sub-basin – which also includes small portions of Jefferson, Douglas, Teller and Clear Creek counties – had dropped to 19 percent of average and 16 percent of last year’s snowpack on May 1. As of April 1, Colorado as a whole had the lowest snowpack percentage since 2002 and the second lowest in the 45 years data has been collected. In March, the South Platte River Basin, which covers the sub-basin and most of the northeastern part of Colorado, had precipitation that was 17 percent of average for that month, which was the lowest in the state…

Most of Park County is listed as D0, abnormally dry. The northwest and southeast corners of the county are classified as D1, moderate drought…

[Garver Brown, Division 1, District 23 water commissioner’s] email said that on April 1, the snowpack in the Upper South Platte watershed was 49 percent of average for April 1 and 51 percent of last year. This is 6 percent less than the average for the entire South Platte Basin. Brown wrote that on April 29 the snow water equivalent at the six Upper South Platte SNOTEL sites was 25 percent of the May 1 average. Total snow water equivalent for the entire South Platte River Basin using SNOTEL sites was 35 percent. Snow survey sites were measured on April 30. Brown personally collects data from three of the ten Upper South Platte sites. Data is collected at the end of each month from January through April. Brown said the April 30 data from snow surveys will be combined with SNOTEL data to update the May 1 snowpack and snow water equivalent maps. The May 1 maps were not available before press time. Brown emailed The Flume May 1 data for the Upper South Platte – using both SNOTEL and snow survey sites. Snowpack had dropped to 19 percent of average and 16 percent of last year’s snowpack on May 1…

Brown wrote that the river call is affecting irrigation rights in District 23, with nearly all irrigation rights “called out” by this senior call. He wrote that several river calls occur during the summer each year, but an 1871 river call at this time of year is unusual compared to a normal snowpack year. “With such a low snowpack, I would expect senior calls to last during the entire irrigation season absent significant rain events,” Brown wrote. According to the Colorado Division of Water Resources, that 1871 call extends throughout five other water districts, including District 80 in northeast Park County.

From The Greeley Tribune (Eric Brown):

Statewide snowpack as of May 1 was 19 percent of the 30-year average, according to a report released by the Natural Resources Conservation Services office in Colorado late Thursday afternoon.

That ties for the state’s worst snowpack on record for May 1.

Only May 1, 2002, — a historic drought year for the state — was as bad.

At 21 percent of average, the Colorado River Basin’s snowpack on May 1 of this year was at a record low.

While the Colorado River flows from the mountains in the opposite direction of Greeley and Weld County, the river makes up a sizeable portion of the water that goes into the Colorado-Big Thompson River Project — which transports Colorado River water from the Western Slope and flows to more than 640,000 acres of irrigated farm and ranch land and to about 850,000 people in eight northern Colorado counties.

This year’s May 1 report showed the South Platte River Basin’s snowpack — which accounts for the rest of the water supply in northern Colorado — was at 25 percent of average. That’s the third-worst mark on record for the basin on May 1.

From The Mountain Mail (Joe Stone) via the Leadville Herald Democrat:

Summer precipitation would be good news for state water managers and firefighters, but even Doesken acknowledged, “More than a week out, weather projections get really difficult.” Nonetheless, Doesken said data indicate the currently dominant La Niña weather pattern may be giving way to a wetter (for Colorado) El Niño pattern. Doesken presented data from around the state that shows below-average precipitation, which he described as “unsettling.”

March 2012, he added, is one of the three warmest and driest Marches on record in Colorado, similar to March 1910. Doesken said the Arkansas Basin has been “chronically dry since the wet summer of 2010.” Walsenburg, for example, “has large, Dust Bowl-type (precipitation) deficits.” With dwindling snowpack, Doesken said, conditions are similar to 2002.

Snowpack measurements at the Fremont Pass Snowpack Telemetry, or SNOTEL, station are slightly better than 2002 readings, he said. Unfortunately, Doesken said, snowpack at the Porphyry Creek SNOTEL station just west of Monarch Pass has already melted out, just as it did in 2002.

I get alerts from the USGS when the Clear Creek at Golden gage exceeds 200 cfs. We’re seeing a bit of a meltout this weekend.

From the current Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District newsletter (Brian Werner):

Dry weather is a normal part of life in Colorado, and while we enjoy the abundant sunshine and humidity-free days, our arid climate brings risks. Farmers worry about crops getting enough moisture. Cities impose watering restrictions. Tap fees grow more costly.

This year, our snowpack is in many places lower than in 2002, the year of Colorado’s last significant drought. That’s when Colorado suffered the quadruple whammy of low snowpack, well below average stream runoff, lack of precipitation and high temperatures.

This is just part of life in Colorado. At the same time, the economic health of Colorado’s farmers, ranchers, businesses and citizens depends on a reliable water supply.

The current dry year has attention focused once again on water supplies and an opinion piece by Rep. Cory Gardner reiterates the need for storage to carry us through the dry years.

From The Aspen Times (Andre Salvail) via the Glenwood Springs Post Independent:

Typically, the 12,095-foot [Independence Pass} opens the Thursday before Memorial Day weekend, which falls this year on May 24. Thanks to the below-average snowpack this year, which high daytime temperatures had melted by Tuesday, CDOT plans to open the pass by 11 a.m. on May 11. CDOT maintenance patrol supervisor Don Poole said there was a huge difference between clearing the road this year and last year, when his crews worked feverishly through late May to open the road on the afternoon of May 26, just in time for the traditional Memorial Day weekend start. “The difference between the two years was amazing,” Poole said. “It’s clear on both sides all the way to the top. We’re just taking advantage of the good weather and time we have to get some other maintenance done up there, mainly cleaning the ditches, fixing signs, repairing the potholes, getting some other stuff done.”[…]

“About the deepest we got into this year was 12 feet,” Poole said. He said the weather atop the pass has been good but breezy in recent days.

Here’s the May 1 release from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (Mage Skordahl):

The month of April brought another significant drop in snowpack percentages across the state. Warm, dry conditions continued to prevail in the mountains of Colorado setting the stage for snowmelt to begin early and fast. “Statewide snowpack looks to have peaked around March 12, a month ahead of the average peak date, and began melting in late March at rates typically not observed until May,” said Phyllis Ann Philipps, State Conservationist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The latest snow surveys conducted by the NRCS show that most low and mid elevation measurement locations have little or no snow and the higher elevation sites are well below average and rapidly melting. The May 1 statewide snowpack report reflects this; measuring just 19 percent of average. For the second month in row statewide snowpack conditions match those recorded during the record setting drought year of 2002.

The largest losses in snowpack percentage were measured in the Gunnison and the Upper Rio Grande basins; both reported drops of 38 percentage points from April 1 to May 1. The Upper Rio Grande basin now has the lowest snowpack percentage in the state, at just 15 percent of average as of May 1. The combined Yampa and White basins, while no longer the lowest in the state, are not far behind at 17 percent of average. The North Platte basin, still a dismal 27 percent of average, has the highest basin wide snowpack in the state. Snowpack reports in the other major basins range from 18 to 25 percent of average.

In an average year, the snowpack in Colorado continues to accumulate during the first half of April and then slowly begins to melt during the second half of the month. This year by April 1 the shallow snowpack had already advanced well into the melt season and melt continued progressing 4 to 6 weeks earlier than normal throughout the rest of the month. As of May 1, 55 percent of the snow survey locations throughout Colorado reported no snow.

Streamflow forecasts across Colorado have dropped significantly for the second consecutive month. At this point most forecast points in Colorado are expected to see streamflow volumes that are less than 50 percent of average for the May to July season

The state’s reservoir storage continues to provide a glimpse of hope this year, with total storage volumes across the state remaining above average. This stored water may help alleviate conditions early in the season; however water users should be aware of the potential for late season shortages

The table below shows Colorado’s snowpack and reservoir storage as of May 1, 2012.

Click on the thumbnail graphic for the table of snowpack and storage.

From The Greeley Tribune (Eric Brown):

Statewide snowpack as of May 1 was 19 percent of the 30-year average, according to a report released by the Natural Resources Conservation Services office in Colorado late Thursday afternoon. That ties for the state’s worst snowpack on record for May 1. Only May 1, 2002, — a historic drought year for the state — was as bad. At 21 percent of average, the Colorado River Basin’s snowpack on May 1 of this year was at a record low…

This year’s May 1 report showed the South Platte River Basin’s snowpack — which accounts for the rest of the water supply in northern Colorado — was at 25 percent of average. That’s the third-worst mark on record for the basin on May 1…

Many producers — who are also dealing with historically low precipitation along the Front Range and Eastern Plains — have been holding off on planting certain crops this spring, waiting to see how the water and rain situations play out.

Having enough water in the Colorado River for the four endangered species is a challenge this year. Here’s a report from Bob Berwyn writing for the Summit County Citizens Voice. Click through for the cool photos. Here’s an excerpt:

As flows are reduced to a trickle, the Colorado pikeminnow, razorback sucker, and especiallly the humpback chub and bonytail chub, will face serious threats from competing non-native species. But they’ll get a little help from Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program biologists, who will be doing their best to remove remove smallmouth bass, northern pike, and in some areas, white sucker, walleye and burbot. Overall, recovery program leaders say they’ll manage the little bit water they do have based on experience from the drought in the early 2000s.

“We’ve been there before,” said program director Tom Chart, explaining that low flows will likely result in a temporary setback for recovery efforts, especially in tributaries like the Yampa River. There are places we saw on Yampa in 2002 where there was virtually no surface flow,” Chart said. “It was just a connected series of pools on the river. Native fish seem to have a propensity to vacate those places … but some of them don’t, and that’s the real concern.”

From The Denver Post (Joey Bunch):

Colorado’s iconic Independence Pass will open at 9 a.m. on May 11, almost two weeks ahead of schedule.

From the Ag Journal via the Bent County Democrat:

A Drought Preparedness Workshop will be held Tuesday, May 15, from 10 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. at the Colorado State Fairgrounds in the 4-H Auditorium Building, 1001 Beulah Avenue in Pueblo. Registration will start at 9:30 a.m. with plenty of coffee to get you ready for a few hours of informative presentations. The program begins at 10 a.m. and will conclude at 3:30 p.m.

Brian Bledsoe will start by giving us insight on the weather with a Drought Outlook and his guide of what to expect in 2012-2013. His presentations will teach you about current weather patterns and help you to know what to expect in the short term and long term future. Next, Dr. Perry Cabot, Water Resource Specialist with the Colorado Water Institute and CSU Extension, will share the outlook for water supplies and methods for optimal water use. This information will be very useful as we look to our storage and irrigation needs compared to current water availability.

An update from Farm Service Agency (FSA) will be presented by Brent Fillmore, the County Director of Farm Service Agency. He will discuss Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP): FSA’s Disaster Risk Management Tool. The information Brent presents will go well with Jeff Tranel, Agriculture and Business Management Economist with CSU Extension, as he speaks about Pasture, Rangeland, Forage (PRF) Insurance. Both presentations will enlighten us all on available insurance and risk management tools for agricultural producers.

From the Associated Press:

The National Weather Service pronounced the two-year La Nina (NEEN’-yah) finished on Thursday.

From the Summit County Citizens Voice (Bob Berwyn):

“Statewide snowpack looks to have peaked around March 12, a month ahead of the average peak date, and began melting in late March at rates typically not observed until May,” said Phyllis Ann Philipps, State Conservationist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

In some parts of the Upper Colorado, stream are flowing at October levels at a time when they should be cresting toward peak flows. For the summer, most streams are expected to flow at less than 50 percent of average.

The latest snow surveys show that most low and mid elevation measurement locations have little or no snow and the higher elevation sites are well below average and rapidly melting. The May 1 statewide snowpack report reflects this, measuring just 19 percent of average. For the second month in row statewide snowpack conditions match those recorded during the record-setting drought year of 2002.

The largest losses in snowpack percentage were measured in the Gunnison and the Upper Rio Grande basins; both reported drops of 38 percent from April 1 to May 1. The Upper Rio Grande basin now has the lowest snowpack percentage in the state, at just 15 percent of average as of May 1.

The combined Yampa and White basins, while no longer the lowest in the state, are not far behind at 17 percent of average. The North Platte basin, still a dismal 27 percent of average, has the highest basin wide snowpack in the state. Snowpack reports in the other major basins range from 18 to 25 percent of average.

From the Fort Collins Coloradoan:

Statistics released Tuesday by the Colorado Climate Center at CSU show that April’s average temperature was 54.8 degrees – 5.9 degrees higher than normal. With dry weather turning Northern Colorado into a tinderbox, a separate report issued Tuesday by the National Integrated Drought Information System recommends that a severe drought be declared for the Fort Collins area.

CSU data show high-temperature records for Fort Collins being broken by as many as 4 degrees, including the warmest day of the month, April 24. The high temperature reached 88 degrees that day, breaking the previous record of 84, set in 1996. Four high-temperature records were broken or tied in April. Three records for the warmest low temperature, called the “minimum” temperature, were also broken, one by 5 degrees. April 11’s low temperature of 50 breaks the previous minimum temperature record of 45, set in 1992.

Fort Collins received only 0.4 inches of precipitation last month, 1.66 inches below normal, making April the eighth-driest on record.

From The Pueblo Chieftain (Tracy Harmon):

Thanks to a warm spring, the excitement will start as early as mid-May when snowmelt will begin to buoy the river levels. The river should peak by early June while rafting will continue through mid-August, aided by water releases from reservoirs, said Bob Hamel of Arkansas River Tours in Cotopaxi.

Micah Salazar, operations manager for Noah’s Ark Rafting in Buena Vista, said summers seldom produce the exact same conditions on the river. He has seen everything from rousing 5,000 cubic feet per second flows in 1995 to the dismal trickle of water that came during the drought year of 2002. One thing is for sure: this year won’t be like either one, Salazar said. “With the current snowpack conditions, we can expect a low-water summer,” Salazar said.

Here’s the release from the Department of Interior and Governor Hickenlooper’s office:

On Friday, May 4, 2012, Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar and Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper will announce the next steps in implementing conservation and recreation projects throughout the Denver metropolitan area and along the South Platte River, including the Rocky Mountain Greenway Project.

Last May, Gov. Hickenlooper and Sec. Salazar announced three conservation initiatives in Colorado as part of the America’s Great Outdoors Initiative, a nationwide effort to encourage and support community-driven conservation and recreation projects around the country. On Friday, they will host a meeting with elected officials, local and regional planners, and other open space leaders throughout the metropolitan area to discuss the initiatives’ ongoing progress.

The Rocky Mountain Greenway Project focuses on a federal, state, local and stakeholder partnership to enhance the Denver metropolitan area parks, open spaces, river corridors and trails—creating an uninterrupted trails/transportation link connecting the Denver metro area’s trail systems, the three National Wildlife Refuges in the metro region, Rocky Mountain National Park, and community trails systems in between.

Sec. Salazar and Gov. Hickenlooper will also be joined by Senator Mark Udall, Congressman Ed Perlmutter and Denver Mayor Michael B. Hancock to unveil a Colorado Department of Transportation directional sign for the Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge. A former chemical weapons manufacturing facility, the site has since been transformed into an urban gateway and sanctuary for residents, visitors and wildlife. The sign is part of an effort to increase the refuge’s visibility and encourage more visitors.

WHO: Ken Salazar, Secretary of the Interior
John Hickenlooper, Governor of Colorado
Michael B. Hancock, Mayor of Denver
Mark Udall, U.S. Senator
Ed Perlmutter, U.S. Representative
WHAT: Press Conference on Colorado’s Great Outdoors
WHEN: 11:30 a.m. MDT
WHERE: Rocky Mountain Arsenal National Wildlife Refuge Visitor Center
6550 Gateway Road
Commerce City, Colorado

Click on the thumbnail graphics for the current statewide snowpack map and the Basin High/Low graph for the Rio Grande Basin along with the current U.S. Drought Monitor map (a new one is due out later today).

From The Crestone Eagle (Keno):

Drought conditions are rated on a scale from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional (D4). As of April 1, readings across the state were as follows: Both the entire Four Corners area, along with the South Platte Basin, were rated D0, while a D2 zone covered the northwest part of Colorado. Parts of the Rio Grande and Arkansas basins have been at D2 and D3 since last summer. For the San Luis Valley, the Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and the entire Crestone area, all of which is a part of the Rio Grande basin, the reading is D2.

The snowpack up in the mountains, which the entire state of Colorado relies on for its water, has been at record low levels across the state since March, thanks to the lack of snowfall. The statewide average for snowpack was at 39% as of April 19 and has been falling rapidly, dropping on average of around 10% in just a week’s time. That 39% reading is even lower for that date than what it was at in 2002, the year of one of Colorado’s worst droughts ever, when the early April snowpack measured back then was at 52% of average.

Here are a few snowpack reports from locations in Colorado: the Gunnison Basin was at 47% of average; the upper Colorado Basin, 37%; the Yampa Basin 38%; the Arkansas Basin 44%; the South Platte Basin, 52%; and the Rio Grande Basin at 45%. The Sangre de Cristo mountain peaks did see a nice amount of snow fall in mid-April that did help a bit in slowing down the snow melt, but we need to see a lot more of that in the next several weeks before any real improvement can be noted.

From Steamboat Today (Tom Ross):

The Yampa River, pushed by 0.71 inches of rain overnight Thursday, jumped to 1,570 cubic feet per second at 7:30 a.m. Friday where it flows beneath the Fifth Street Bridge in downtown Steamboat Springs. And with the benefit of hindsight, that may turn out to have been the river’s peak for spring runoff 2012. However, with high-elevation snowpack hanging on in the Park Mountains, water officials aren’t quite ready to commit.

The river had been on the way down since Friday night and was flowing at 797 cfs at 5 p.m. Monday. And the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center in Salt Lake City expects the river to remain at fairly consistent flows through May 9.

The river could rebound to just more than 1,000 cfs at midweek, then slip to 750 cfs May 8 to 9, based on the latest projections. Ashley Nielson, a hydrologist with the agency, said April 23 that based on historical data the Yampa River where it passed through Steamboat had a 90 percent chance of peaking at 1,200 cfs, and a 75 percent chance of peaking above 1,400 cfs. Thanks to last week’s rainstorm, the Yampa has beaten that 75 percent proposition. However, it might be a lot to expect it to rally to 1,800 cfs this season. Nielson rated that peak flow a 50-50 chance a week ago. The historic average peak flow for the Yampa is 3,070 cfs at the Fifth Street Bridge…

[Mage] Skordahl’s agency [NRCS] doesn’t look at peak flows in individual rivers. Instead, the NRCS is interested in the total volume of water expected to flow past the various stream measuring gauges in Colorado over the entire course of spring runoff. That number on the Yampa at Fifth Street is typically about 100,000 acre feet during the four months from April to July, Skordahl said. The river here already has seen 36 percent of that total flow in the first 25 percent of the timeframe, she said.

From The Telluride Daily Planet (Collin McRann):

According to data from the Colorado Snow Survey, snowpack levels reported Tuesday for the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan river basins were sitting at 29 percent of average. Statewide, the snowpack is at 25 percent of average. The levels represent the fifth lowest year to date since snowpack record-keeping began in 1968. Last spring, following heavy storms in April, snowpack levels for the area were reported at near 100 percent of average — bringing big spring runoffs to the region.

“I’d say based on the weather that we’ve been having, that snowpack levels are not going to improve by any great means,” said Mage Skordahl with the Colorado Snow Survey program. “It looks like, from our data, that we reached peak snow-water equivalent in early to mid March. That’s around two to six weeks earlier than average.”[…]

The San Miguel River near Placerville was flowing at around 220 cubic feet per second April 30, according the U.S. Geological Survey. The river hit a high in mid April at just over 400 cubic feet per second, but it has been in decline since then, according the Survey. Last year, the San Miguel was flowing at more than 300 cubic feet per second by May 1.

Local temperature records were also broken during the months of March and April. According to a blog run by Thom Carnevale, who compiles local weather data, the temperature in Telluride reached 73 degrees on March 25, tying the record set in 1986. On April 23, he reported, a high of 79 degrees was recorded in town, which broke the previous record of 78 degrees set in 1992.

Snowfall has also been sparse this spring. Carnevale measured a total of 15.5 inches of snow in the month of March, down from the month’s average of 33.9 inches.

From The Brighton Standard-Blade (Steve Smith):

City officials see no reason to change the watering schedule that’s been in place since 2000. That means another summer of circles, diamonds and squares, depending on the last two numbers of the address. Residents can water every third day but not between the hours of 10 a.m. and 6 p.m. “That’s the warmest part of the day,” said city water specialist Dawn Hessheimer. “That’s when the water will evaporate the most.”