From the Fort Collins Coloradoan (Ryan Maye Handy):
After two years of devastating drought — which the September rains alleviated for much of the state — snow in October might seem like a sign of good things to come, but it doesn’t guarantee a good ski season.
Unlike in previous years, Colorado will likely not fall into an El Nino or La Nina weather pattern this winter. The federal Climate Prediction Center recently released its snow forecast for the nation, and gave Colorado a “ neutral” prognosis — there will not be a warmer and wetter weather cycle passing over the state, known as El Nino, nor will there be a drier and colder cycle, known as La Nina.
“It’s a bad cop-out,” said National Weather Service forecaster Mike Baker of the state’s snow outlook. “There are equal chances of above or below or equal snowfall.”
For the past three years, Colorado has fallen into one of two weather patterns. During the 2010-11 winter season, the state was in an El Nino cycle, a system that pushes warm, moist air over the San Juan and Sangre De Cristo mountains in the south. In Colorado, El Nino cycles have a reputation for creating good snow years, Baker said.
Above-average snowfall made that winter particularly memorable, only to be followed by two remarkably dry and cold winters, memorable only for their lack of snow. Those were La Nina years, when cold, dry winters left much of the state without snow, Baker said.
But a “neutral” weather cycle this year will bring a mix of the two, Baker added.
“There is no set pattern. With the neutral storm track the weather can be all over the place. There is no rhyme or reason,” he said. “Well, we really don’t have a good handle on what might happen this winter.”