The latest ENSO discussion is hot off the presses from the Climate Prediction Center

Mid-October 2013 Plume of model ENSO predictions via the Climate Prediction Center
Mid-October 2013 Plume of model ENSO predictions via the Climate Prediction Center

Click here for the discussion. Here’s the synopsis:

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.

During October, ENSO-neutral persisted, as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. During the month, slightly below-average SSTs were evident in most of the Niño regions, except for Niño-4, which remained near zero. However, the oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) rose from near average to slightly above average, due to the eastward shift of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which was reflected in the above-average subsurface temperatures across the western half of the Pacific. The atmospheric circulation remained largely near average during the month, with generally small departures in equatorial convection and upper and lower-level winds. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic conditions reflect ENSO-neutral.

The majority of model forecasts indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C) will persist into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014 (Fig. 6). Though confidence is highest for ENSO-neutral, there are also growing probabilities for warm conditions (relative to cool conditions) toward the spring/summer 2014. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

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