From NOAA (Emily Becker):

Sea shanties
During January, the sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region of the tropical Pacific—our primary measurement for ENSO’s ocean component—was close to 1.0°C cooler than the long-term average. This places it comfortably in La Niña territory.

The November–January temperature in the Niño3.4 region was also 1.0°C cooler than the long-term average. Our double-dip La Niña’s second year has been stronger than the first, as the greatest departure from average during 2016–17 was -0.7°C. As Nat showed in his excellent post last week, this is somewhat unusual for a double-dip La Niña, as the second year tends to be a bit weaker than the first. However, as he discussed, the impacts on North American temperature and precipitation tend to be stronger in La Niña’s second year… if you haven’t read Nat’s post, go do it now! I’ll wait.

Carrying the tune
The atmosphere continues to respond to the cooler-than-average surface waters in the tropical Pacific, showing all the signs of a strengthened Walker Circulation. Those cooler-than-average waters lead to less rising air and cloud formation in the central Pacific than average, with more rising air and storms forming over the far western Pacific and Indonesia.

More evidence of the strengthened Walker Circulation during January was provided by stronger-than-average near-surface winds (the trade winds), as well as stronger west-to-east winds in the upper atmosphere. The stronger trade winds help to keep the surface cooler, and to keep warmer water piled up in the far western Pacific—part of the critical feedback processes that make up ENSO. However, this feedback doesn’t go on forever, and we’re seeing signs that La Niña’s swan song is imminent.

Bass notes
We keep track of what’s going on under the surface of the tropical Pacific, too, as significant temperature changes in the subsurface waters can provide a valuable clue about the evolution of ENSO events. From early December to late January, an area of warmer-than-average water centered between about 50 and 200 meters (~160–650 feet) under the surface traveled from the western Pacific to the east-central Pacific. This downwelling Kelvin wave chased away most of the cooler-than-average subsurface waters, leaving La Niña without it’s steady supply of cooler waters.

This movement toward more neutral subsurface temperatures is one of the factors forecasters are looking at as we anticipate the decline of La Niña. Most of the computer models also foresee this transition, and overall forecasters have come to the consensus of a 55% chance that La Niña conditions will dissipate by March–May, as the tropical Pacific transitions to neutral conditions.

World music… or, a little off-key?
While this La Niña’s effect on precipitation and temperature has been generally in-line with expectations over North America, especially regarding the dry conditions across the southern half of the US, global impacts haven’t been entirely as expected during the past few months.

La Niña during November–January is associated with more rain than average in eastern Australia, northern South America, and southern Africa. On the other hand, La Niña ordinarily tends toward drier conditions in southern Brazil/northern Argentina/Uruguay, as well as southeastern China. (These maps show the expected patterns, but the colors are reversed, since they’re showing El Niño… sorry!) November 2017–January 2018, however, did not conform well to the expected patterns.

La Niña’s global effects on temperature have historically been associated with cooler temperatures in Australia, southern Africa, and much of South America, but, due to human-caused global warming, it’s increasingly rare to see a lot of cooler-than-average areas over the globe.

This doesn’t mean ENSO is useless as a forecasting tool, but it does further illustrate the complexity of the global climate system, and why forecasts are probabilistic. Over the past few months, La Niña just wasn’t the loudest voice in much of the world’s climate acapella group. (Check out Angel Munoz’s post about La Niña’s effects in South America for a much more effective musical analogy!)

Regarding other voices—stay tuned for Michelle’s later February post on the Madden-Julian Oscillation, who’s been outperforming himself over the past few weeks, likely affecting global weather and climate. Also, the MJO is currently substantially weakening the trade winds, potentially hastening La Niña’s curtain call. Don’t touch that dial! There’s more to come on Radio ENSO, after this message from our sponsors.

US Drought Monitor February 6, 2018.

West Drought Monitor February 6, 2018.

Colorado Drought Monitor February 6, 2018.

Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

During the 7-day period (ending Tuesday morning), near- to above-normal precipitation was observed from the interior Southeast into New England, while dryness intensified across the southern half of the Plains and much of the southwestern quarter of the nation. Drought continued to expand on the southern Plans, while a reduction in drought intensity and coverage was noted in parts of the south and east where rain and snow were heaviest. The situation across the western U.S. presented sharply diverging scenarios, with good season-to-date moisture supplies across the northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest in sharp contrast to intensifying drought and a lack of vital snowpacks across central and southern portions of the Rockies and Sierra Nevada…

South

Rain in eastern portions of the region contrasted with intensifying drought across the southern Plans and environs. Rain totaled 1 to 3 inches (locally more) over central and eastern Mississippi, while two-week totals of 2 to 6 inches extended from southeastern Texas into central Mississippi. Despite the much-needed moisture, considerable longer-term deficits persisted in the Delta’s core Moderate and Severe Drought (D1 and D2) areas, with 90-day precipitation at or below 50 percent of normal (D2 equivalent or worse). Farther west, Extreme Drought (D3) expanded across much of northern Texas and western Oklahoma, with subsequent increases in D2 noted in central Texas and eastern Oklahoma. From Lubbock, Texas, northward into Oklahoma, little — if any — rain or snow has fallen over the past 90 days; the four-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was well below D4 levels (-2.0 or lower) in these locales. Despite the cooler season with minimal agricultural activity on the Plains, impacts were beginning to appear. In Oklahoma, the percent of winter wheat rated poor to very poor jumped from 10 percent at the end of November to 79 percent by the end of January, with 93 percent of the state’s topsoil moisture rated short to very short. In Texas, the lack of precipitation is reaching historic levels. According to the National Weather Service, February 7, 2018, marked the 117th consecutive day without measurable precipitation for Amarillo, shattering the previous mark of 75 days (records date back to 1892). In Lubbock, February 7 marked the 91st consecutive day without measurable precipitation, just 7 days shy of the 98-day benchmark. The situation on the southern Plains is rapidly becoming dire, and precipitation will be needed soon to prevent further expansion or intensification of drought…

High Plains

Additional snow in the north and west contrasted with increasingly dry conditions in southern and eastern portions of the region. A continuation of the recent unsettled weather pattern in northeastern Colorado (30-day surplus of 1-2 inches, liquid equivalent) supported the reduction of Moderate Drought (D1). Conversely, a lack of precipitation over the past 90 days coupled with input from experts in the field led to an expansion of D1 in northeastern South Dakota and southeastern North Dakota. Of particular concern is this winter’s subpar snowfall to date; winter snowfall is important for agriculture (providing runoff to refill stock ponds, protects winter wheat from temperature extremes, provides topsoil moisture) and serves as early spring water supply for ecosystems as the snowmelt season approaches…

West

Favorable conditions in the north contrasted sharply with dry, warm weather in central and southern portions of the region. From the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies, the favorable start to the current Water Year continued, with additional rain and mountain snow (1-4 inches liquid equivalent, locally more) reported during the 7-day period. As of Tuesday, February 6, the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) of mountain snowpacks was well above normal (50-100th percentile) from Washington into the northern Rockies, with surpluses extending southward into the east-central Rockies (just west of Denver, Colorado). Conversely, the SWE was approaching or at historical lows (25th percentile or lower, with many stations reporting no snow at all) from western Colorado and much of Utah southward into Arizona and New Mexico. Likewise, the lack of snow — due in part to unseasonable warmth — has raised the specter of re-intensifying western drought in the Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, and Blue Mountains. The lack of snow is having an immediate impact, forcing some ski areas to close historically early. Furthermore, a significant portion of the western water supply is contingent on snowmelt, and the poor spring runoff prospects will place a higher-than-normal burden on reservoirs. Currently, reservoir supplies are mostly in good shape due to last year’s abundant rain and snow. Nevertheless, the overall lack of precipitation since the beginning of the current Water Year (October 1) is compounding the effects of very low SWE, with season-to-date precipitation tallying a meager 25 percent of normal or less from southern California into the Four Corners region. In many of the aforementioned areas, drought will rapidly expand and intensify if precipitation does not return soon…

Looking Ahead

A wintry mix will depart the East Coast at the beginning of the period, with this system having already provided much-needed rain and snow to many drought areas of the southern and eastern U.S. On this storm’s heels, a frontal boundary initially draped over the northern Plains and Corn Belt will be the focus for another round of rain and snow. As the front pushes south, a wave of low pressure will develop and move northeastward across the Atlantic Coast States during the weekend. As a result, moderate to heavy precipitation (1-2 inches, locally more) will provide additional drought relief from the Delta into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with lighter showers expected over the Southeast. Despite the active weather pattern, dry weather will linger from the southern Plains into the Southwest. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for February 13 – 17 calls for warmer- and wetter-than-normal weather across the eastern third of the nation. Likewise, near- to above-normal temperatures are anticipated from the Plains to the Pacific Coast — save for chilly weather on the northern Plains — but unfavorable dryness will persist from the western Corn Belt and central Plains to the Pacific Coast States.

From The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (Dennis Webb):

January was wetter than previous months in Colorado’s mountains, but still saw precipitation that was just 70 percent of average, which pretty much sums up the atrocious state of affairs when it comes to current snowpack levels.

Statewide snowpack was at 64 percent of median Wednesday, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service data.

That’s up from 54 percent of normal Jan. 1, but the wetter January “can hardly be viewed as a reprieve from the tenacious pattern of dry weather,” the NRCS said in a news release Wednesday…

Brian Domonkos, Colorado snow survey supervisor for NRCS, said in the release, “Nearly one-quarter of the almost 200 snow monitoring sites across our network recorded snowpack at the lowest or second-lowest levels on record.”

Current snowpack levels range from 93 percent of median in the South Platte River Basin to just 33 percent in the Upper Rio Grande Basin. The Upper Colorado Basin is at 79 percent of median, and the Gunnison Basin is at just 49 percent, reflecting the sharp divide in moisture levels between northern and southern Colorado thanks to a La Niña weather pattern that typically brings more snow to the northern part of the state.

Domonkos said areas such as Wolf Creek Pass and Red Mountain Pass in the San Juan Mountains currently have just two or three feet of snow, compared to a typical five to six feet of snow in early February.

“What’s more concerning is the considerable number of mid- to lower-elevation monitoring sites that have little to no snow,” he said.

Some streams in the Upper Colorado and South Platte basins are forecast to have near-average streamflows this summer, but the Gunnison Basin forecasts range from 72 percent of average for the Slate River near Crested Butte to 27 percent for Surface Creek at Cedaredge.

The current streamflow forecast for the Plateau Creek drainage is 39 percent of average, another reflection of poor snowpack levels in the Grand Mesa area. Powderhorn Mountain Resort on Grand Mesa recently announced it was returning to a reduced, Thursday through Sunday operating schedule to help preserve snowpack higher on the mountain as the drought continues…

A saving grace for the state’s water outlook in coming months is reservoir storage, which the NRCS says is at the highest January level in many years, at 115 percent of normal. Gunnison Basin storage is at 104 percent of normal, and Colorado River Basin storage is at 116 percent.

As of Feb. 1, the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center was projecting that inflows into Lake Powell will be 47 percent of average during the runoff season. The reservoir, viewed by Colorado and other states in the Upper Colorado River Basin as their bank account for meeting downstream water-delivery obligations, is 56 percent full.

From The Greeley Tribune (Sharon Dunn):

Snowpack for the two basins that provide water to northern Colorado — the upper Colorado and South Platte River basins — still are cause for concern, despite the fact they are in a better spot than other basins around the state, said Brian Werner of Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District.

As of Wednesday, the upper Colorado was 79 percent of average while the South Platte was 93 percent of average. Statewide, snowpack is at 64 percent of average, now halfway through the season.

“Our biggest water-related months are March and April,” Werner said. “That’s where we get the wet, heavy spring snows that provide a lot of water to us. Our biggest months are still ahead of us.”

According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, January’s statewide snowpack measured at 69 percent; that sank 5 percentage points by Wednesday. For January, a quarter of the state’s 200 snow monitoring sites across the state showed the lowest or second lowest levels on record, Brian Domonkos, Colorado Snow Survey supervisor, reported in a news release…

Northern Water on Wednesday had just conducted its first streamflow forecast for the year, as well. Based on that check, officials forecast that runoff — the amount of water that will flow through the rivers into local water supplies — will be at 80 percent to 90 percent of average come May and June. But that number can change every month.

The rest of the state may not be so lucky.

“While some streamflow forecasts in the South Platte and Upper Colorado River basins are projected to produce runoff within the range of normal, far more rivers and streams throughout the rest of Colorado are forecasted to provide below normal to well below normal runoff this spring,” the release stated.

Northern Colorado’s water supply is especially important to the agriculture industry throughout Weld County. The season has been dry and windy, and cause for concern. Soil moisture conditions were threatened due to a dry November, December and January, as well as heavy winds that tended to dry out the soil.

“That’s a concern with farmers, so some of the wet snows ahead could help us,” Werner said.

From The Denver Post (Bruce Finley) via The Loveland Reporter-Herald:

In southern Colorado river basins, the federal data through Feb. 7 showed snowpack in the Rio Grande River basin measured 33 percent of normal. In the combined San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins, snowpack measured 35 percent of normal.

Northern Colorado fared wetter. Survey crews measured snow depths in the South Platte River basin that serves as a main source for metro Denver and northeastern farm fields at 93 percent of normal, and in the North Platte River basin at 88 percent of normal. The snowpack in the upper Colorado River basin that also is a key source of water for booming Front Range cities measured 79 percent of normal.

At this point with traditional winter passing, recovery to near-normal snowpack would require a major shift in ocean-driven weather patterns.

Temperatures also play a role. On Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a bulletin noting that the average U.S. temperature in January was 2.1 degrees higher than the 20th Century average. Colorado ranked among nine western states where temperatures in January were much warmer than average.

The low mountain snowpack means water flows in streams this spring likely will fall far below normal.

However, Denver Water officials who supply water to 1.4 million people, said recent storms in mountains above its reservoirs brought snowpack at those locations to normal or better for this time of year.

“Denver Water is cautiously optimistic regarding snowpack,” spokeswoman Stacy Chesney said. “The next few months will determine the water available to us during spring runoff. It’s still too early to speculate on snow totals for the year because we often see good snow accumulation in March and April.”

Northern Water officials echoed that assessment.

“Obviously, we would rather be above average heading into February,” Northern Water spokesman Brian Werner said. “However, our two biggest water-producing snowpack months are ahead of us in March and April. The next three months will prove critical. We’ve seen years turn around completely in the spring with those good, heavy, wet snows that add to water supplies once they melt.

“Is there concern? Yes, especially for those in southwestern Colorado where the numbers are much worse,” he said. We like to see snow everywhere in the mountains this time of year.”

A few years ago when mountain snow stayed at record-low levels in California and Nevada, water shortages and droughts hit hard. California officials ordered urban water use restrictions. Here in Colorado, state officials leave water supply planning and drought response largely to the discretion of local governments and utilities.

From the Associated Press via KTAR.com:

Hydrologist Greg Smith of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Wednesday Lake Powell is expected to get 47 percent of its average inflow because of scant snow in the mountains that feed the Colorado River.

Smith says there’s only a 10 percent chance that enough mountain snow will fall during the rest of the winter to bring inflows back to average.

From Tucson.com (Tony Davis):

If you drive over Red Mountain Pass near Silverton, Colorado, north of Durango this weekend, you’ll see lots of snow, like every winter. But you’ll also see rocks and trees poking through the snow that you don’t normally see this time of year.

Those rocks and trees symbolize Rocky Mountain snowpack stuck at record-tying low levels for midwinter. These levels spell potential trouble for the spring-summer runoff that supplies much of Tucson and Phoenix’s drinking water, both for now and for the future.

The Upper Colorado River Basin snowpack in places like Red Mountain Pass, elevation 11,500 feet, feeds the river’s tributaries that drain into the main Colorado River, which supplies the Central Arizona Project serving Tucson, Phoenix and Pinal County cities and farmers.

Normally by now, Red Mountain Pass has had 12 winter snowstorms, said Jeff Derry, director of the nonprofit Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies in Silverton. This winter, it’s had four. Farther north, 2 feet of snow are piled in the mountain passes near Glenwood Springs in western Colorado, compared with 6 to 8 feet a year ago.

Overall, the Upper Basin’s snowpack recently has ranged from 63 to 65 percent of normal, says the federal Colorado River Basin Forecast Center. That ties with 1990 for the lowest snowpack on record for this time of year, the forecast center says.

The center predicts that April-July runoff into Lake Powell will be 47 percent of normal. That doesn’t make a CAP shortage likely next year. As of now, the federal government says the chance of such a shortage is only 17 percent for 2019.

But the risk rises to 49 percent in 2020, 58 percent in 2021 and 63 percent in 2022, say current U.S. Bureau of Reclamation forecasts based on computer models.

And Tom Buschatzke, director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources, is concerned that under the worst case scenario, Lake Mead could dip a half-foot below 1,075 feet by the end of 2018 and drop an additional 4.5 feet by 2020. A shortage is supposed to be declared if the lake drops below 1,075 feet, although he says additional water conservation could probably prevent that.

Arizona and the rest of the river basin have been through such worries before and came through unscathed. In winter and spring 2015, snowpack levels and runoff forecasts were grim through April. Authorities in Arizona were gearing up for the first-ever cutback in CAP deliveries in the following year.

Instead, Colorado was pounded by record rainfall the next month, which has since been dubbed “Miracle May,” and no 2016 shortage occurred.

Today’s long-range forecasts for the Colorado Basin don’t see miracles ahead. They predict a dry spring in areas of the Upper Basin south of Interstate 70, which covers the majority of Colorado and a good part of Utah.

There’s no way to predict a Miracle May because it didn’t happen in 2015 “until it was right on top of you,” said Eric Kuhn, retired general manager of the Colorado River District that manages water in western Colorado.

The immediate cause of this low snowpack is a combination of two extremely strong weather systems hanging over the region since November that have refused to move.

First, an Arctic-spawned low-pressure system — which Arizona water officials have dubbed “the Blob” — is centered over Canada’s Hudson Bay. It has held temperatures well below normal for much of the winter across the eastern and midwestern U.S.

Below that is a high-pressure system hanging over the eastern Pacific and the Southwest that has driven the jet stream northward and left much of the West warm and dry, including not only the Colorado River Basin but the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California.

“We unfortunately are dominated by this high-pressure ridge over the West, and it works in tandem with the really strong low pressure ridge to the east,” said Greg Smith, a hydrologist for the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center. “When these features are very strong, they can be persistent. These features have been persistent over much of the winter.”

Another potential, and probably likely factor, is climate change.

Studies have shown significant snowpack declines across most of the western U.S. since the 1950s, the Environmental Protection Agency has said. Human factors, including climate change, ozone depletion and land use, accounted for 20 percent of the loss in annual Western mountain snowpack since the 1980s, said an April 2017 study from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Berkeley, California.

Peak runoff in streams and rivers of the West is strongly influenced by melting of accumulated mountain snowpack.

Based on the current state of the snowpack, the researchers predict a further loss of up to 60 percent within the next 30 years.

“The projected losses have serious implications for the hydropower, municipal and agricultural sectors in the region,” said John Fyfe, a research scientist for Environment and Climate Change Canada, and lead author of the study, published in the journal Nature Communications.

Brad Udall, a prominent Colorado State University water researcher, acknowledged there’s no way to be certain without additional study that this year’s poor snowpack is directly related to climate change caused by greenhouse-gas emissions.

But many of the weather patterns that are linked with this year’s poor snowpack “look like our future,” based on what other researchers have predicted will happen because of climate change, Udall said.

First, this year saw a late start to winter weather across the entire river basin and in California, he said.

Second, record-warm Colorado weather from October through December meant that a lot of snowpack evaporated and became water vapor instead of becoming stream runoff. Finally, this winter’s pattern of extremely dry weather south of Interstate 70 and the less dry weather north of I-70, is also what climate models have predicted, Udall said.

Over the past 18 years ending in 2017, only four years saw even average runoff down the Colorado, Udall said.

“That’s less than half of the big flow years on average that we used to get,” he said.

From Water Deeply (Tom Philip):

If we are adequately to talk about the weather this century, we are going to need a new lexicon that better captures the current reality, writes Tom Philp of Metropolitan Water District.

Water policy is becoming a prisoner of its own limited vocabulary, particularly when it comes to the weather. Here is a case that “drought” and “normal” belong in the dustbin of history, for their overuse can lead to the wrong conversation. These words are not so sinister as to be banned from the dictionary. But they tend to miss the mark as to what seems to be happening with our weather this century.

First, the case against “drought.”

In California, a drought only happens when a governor declares it to be so. It is invariably announced via an executive order when the state is already well into a publicized dry pattern. Likewise, Sacramento declares the drought over after it has been raining like mad.

Yes, dry years strung together are important. They have their acute set of management problems. The recent multi-year dryness brought true hardship to many communities, farmers and aquatic ecosystems throughout the state. Longer streaks may lie ahead.

But looking back at California’s weather so far this century, we have been “dry” (as in below-average precipitation) two years out of three. Sometimes they have come in streaks that draw temporary attention. Sometimes they have been sandwiched in between by a single wet year.

Being dry two years out of three is a very big deal. For lack of a better term, it is like a Semi Drought. A Dry Period. This needs a name. This has some very serious consequences.

There is evidence throughout the West that groundwater basins have suffered because of this chronic semi-drought. The University of Arizona recently documented the emerging problems of the Semi Drought.

And Southern California, even with intensive groundwater management, has not been immune from the impacts. Based on information collected by the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, local groundwater production has decreased by more than 200,000 acre-feet since 2000. The net loss is roughly equivalent to the annual residential needs of the cities of San Diego, Burbank, Anaheim, Long Beach, Glendale and Garden Grove.

No governor has ever declared California to be in a chronic Semi-Drought. Perhaps this weather trend is rarely discussed, and never declared, because we haven’t settled on a catchy word that describes what has steadily emerged to be our most challenging long-term weather problem.

Second, the case against “normal.”

Yes, normalcy has an unavoidable mathematical purpose. There must be a benchmark for a past to describe the present. But there really is not such a thing as normal, or average, in the state that has had the most variable weather in the country. And the experts seem to be telling us that things will be even less “normal” in the future.

Cases in point are two studies that came out of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California-San Diego last fall. They pointed to even more volatility, as in dramatic swings from wet to dry years (sound familiar?) in the future.

“Rainfall in a warmer future will be delivered in less frequent but more intense events,” Scripps meteorologist Alexander Gershunov said at the time.

As Gershunov intimated, the Scripps research also pointed to more frequent dry years in the future. That is more evidence that the Semi Drought that is under way is truly the norm.

Meanwhile, we all watch the weather. We all wonder what about the future. And we converse about it in yesteryear’s language.

If we truly are in a long and challenging Semi-Drought, or whatever we end up calling it, whether it is very wet or very dry or very “average” in any given year is important in the short term. But in the long term, it is a statistical asterisk.

Here’s the release from the NRCS (Brian Domonkos):

In the mountains of Colorado, January proved to yield the best precipitation so far this water year, but it can hardly be viewed as a reprieve from the tenacious pattern of dry weather. At 70 percent of average, January precipitation was only slightly better than October at 69 percent. Snowpack too saw minimal improvement across the state up from 54 percent of normal last month to now 59 percent of normal on the first of February. “Nearly one quarter of the almost 200 snow monitoring sites across our network recorded snowpack at the lowest or second lowest levels on record,” said Brian Domonkos, Colorado Snow Survey Supervisor, referring to the network of USDA Natural Resources Conservations Service SNOw TELemetry and Snow Course sites nestled in the mountains of Colorado. With nearly one third of the typical winter season remaining, a major shift in weather patterns will be needed to make significant improvements, particularly in Southern Colorado.

Highlighting the below normal conditions, SNOTEL sites within the Rio Grande basin indicate snowpack is the lowest in recent history at 31 percent of normal. Meanwhile the SNOTEL sites in the combined San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins observe the lowest standing year-to- date precipitation at 29 percent of normal. Northern Colorado however is performing considerably better. On the high side, snowpack in the North Platte River basin is at 82 percent of normal and in the South Platte River basin, which is home to much of the Denver Metro area, snowpack is at 80 percent of normal and year-to-date precipitation is much closer to normal at 98 percent.

Areas of Colorado such as Wolf Creek Pass and Red Mountain Pass in the San Juan Mountains typically boast five to six feet of snow in early February, but currently report only two to three feet. Domonkos adds, “What’s more concerning is the considerable number of mid to lower elevation monitoring sites that have little to no snow.” Most of these sites are located in the southern half of the Colorado.

Reservoir storage across the state is at the highest January levels in many years, at 115 percent of normal and will provide some assistance to spring and summer runoff where snowpack is well below normal. While some streamflow forecasts in the South Platte and Upper Colorado River basins are projected to produce runoff within the range of normal, far more rivers and streams throughout the rest of Colorado are forecasted to provide below normal to well below normal runoff this spring. For more specific streamflow forecast values refer to the Colorado Water Supply Outlook Report.

For more detailed and the most up to date information about Colorado snowpack and supporting water supply related information, refer to the Colorado Snow Survey website at:
http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/main/co/snow/
Or contact Brian Domonkos – Brian.Domonkos@co.usda.gov – 720-544-2852

Click here to read the release from NOAA:

Warmth in the West contrasted with cold in the East

Depending on your location, January brought a warmer or colder start to the year. Data show that much-above-average temperatures in the West offset below-average conditions in the East and made for a slightly warmer-than-average January for the nation as a whole.

Perhaps the bigger news: The U.S. drought continued to expand and intensify to its largest area in nearly four years (May 2014). As of January 30, 38.4 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, up from 27.7 percent at the beginning of January.

Here’s how last month fared in terms of the climate record:

Climate by the numbers
January 2018
During January, the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 32.2 degrees F, 2.1 degrees above average, ranking among the warmest third in the 124-year record, according to scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

Most locations from the Rockies to the West Coast were warmer than average in January, where nine states had monthly temperatures that ranked among the 10 warmest on record and more than 2,000 daily warm temperature records were broken or tied. Below-average temperatures stretched from the Southern Plains to the East Coast. Several significant cold waves impacted the eastern half of the nation with more than 4,000 daily cold temperature records broken or tied.

The precipitation total for the month was 1.81 inches, 0.50 of an inch below average, making it the 21st driest January on record. Below-average precipitation was observed across large areas of the country, including parts of the Southwest, Southern Plains, Northern Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Above-average precipitation was observed across parts of the Northwest, Central Plains and Northeast.

Other notable climate events for the month

Snowfall impacted the South, spared the West: During January, numerous snow storms impacted the eastern U.S. The Savannah, Georgia, airport received 1.2 inches of snow on January 4, the most since 1989 (See NASA’s satellite image above of Savannah area). Conversely, mountain locations in the Southern Cascades, Southern Rockies and Sierra Nevada Mountains had snowpack totals that were less than 25 percent of average.

Alaska experienced the warmest January temperature on record: On January 14, the temperature at a NOAA tide gauge at Ketchikan reached 67 degrees F, the highest January daily temperature ever measured in Alaska, besting the previous record of 62 degrees set in January 2014.

Pacific Islands were record-dry: Drought conditions spread and intensified into the U.S. Pacific Islands during January. Honolulu received 0.06 inches of rain, only three percent of normal, marking the third driest January on record. Guam record only 0.94 inches of rain, making it the driest January since records began in 1957.

Click here to read the release from NOAA:

During January, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 32.2°F, 2.1°F above the 20th century average. This ranked among the warmest third of the 124-year period of record. Much-above-average temperatures in the West offset below-average conditions in the East. The January precipitation total was 1.81 inches, 0.50 inch below the 20th century average. This tied the 21st driest January on record. Drought intensified and expanded across parts of the West, Southern Plains and Southeast.

This monthly summary from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, business, academia and the public to support informed decision-making.

January Temperature

Most locations from the Rockies to the West Coast were warmer than average, where nine states had monthly temperatures that ranked among the 10 warmest on record. While no state was record warm during January, more than 2,000 daily warm temperature records were broken or tied across the region.

Below-average temperatures stretched from the Southern Plains to the East Coast. Several significant cold waves impacted the eastern half of the nation during January with more than 4,000 daily cold temperature records broken or tied across the East. No state had a record cold monthly temperature.

The Alaska January temperature was 6.8°F, 4.6°F above the long-term average. This ranked in the warmest third of the 94-year period of record for the state. The first half of January was mild across Alaska with a cold end to the month. On January 14, the temperature at a NOAA tide gauge at Ketchikan reached 67°F, the highest January daily temperature ever measured in Alaska. The previous record was 62°F in January 2014.

January Precipitation

During January, below-average precipitation was observed across large areas of the country, including parts of the Southwest, Southern Plains, Northern Plains, Midwest, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Alabama had its ninth driest January and New Mexico tied its 10th driest. Above-average precipitation was observed across parts of the Northwest, Central Plains and Northeast.

In January, numerous snow storms impacted the eastern U.S., bringing snow and ice to locations across the South that hadn’t experienced snow in many years. On January 4, the Savannah, Georgia, airport received 1.2 inches of snow, the most since 1989. Conversely, snow generally missed large parts of the West. Mountain locations in the Southern Cascades, Southern Rockies and Sierra Nevada Mountains had snowpack totals that were less than 25 percent of average. The lack of snow in the West could result in below-average spring runoff causing water resource concerns. Tourism in the region was also impacted.

According to the January 30 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 38.4 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, up from 27.7 percent at the beginning of the month. This was the largest drought footprint since May 2014. Drought conditions expanded and intensified in parts of the West, Southern Plains and Southeast. Some drought improvement was observed in the Northern High Plains, Central Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and coastal Southeast.

The NOAA National Weather Service issued a drought statement for Guam, Northern Mariana Islands and the Marshall Islands as drought intensified and spread during January 2018. With 0.94 inch of rain, the weather station at Guam observed the driest January in the 1957–2018 record.

See all January U.S. temperature and precipitation maps.

Click here to read the report from the NRCS.

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of snowpack data from the NRCS.

Statewide basin-filled snowpack map February 5, 2018 via the NRCS.

Statewide Basin High/Low graph February 4, 2018 via the NRCS.

Yampa and White Basin High/Low graph February 4, 2018 via the NRCS.

San Miguel, Dolores, Animas, and San Juan Basin High/Low graph February 4, 2018 via the NRCS.

Upper Rio Grande River Basin High/Low graph February 4, 2018 via the NRCS.

Laramie and North Platte Basin High/Low graph February 4, 2018 via the NRCS.

Gunnison River Basin High/Low graph February 4, 2018 via the NRCS.

Upper Colorado River Basin High/Low graph February 4, 2018 via the NRCS.

Arkansas River Basin High/Low graph February 4, 2018 via the NRCS.

South Platte River Basin High/Low graph February 4, 2018 via the NRCS.

Here’s the Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map for February 5, 2018 from the NRCS.

And here’s the situation in California where they perform their own snow course measurements independent of the NRCS.

From USA Today (Doyle Rice):

As of Thursday, 38.4% of the continental U.S. is in a drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That is the highest percentage since the 40% recorded in May 2014.

In California, which emerged from a brutal four-year drought last year, 44% of the state is now considered to be in a moderate drought. That’s a dramatic jump from just last week, when the figure was 13%.

Major winter storms have mostly bypassed the West, meaning that much-needed mountain snow has not fallen, said NOAA meteorologist Richard Heim, author of this week’s Drought Monitor. This winter, snow sensors across the Sierra Nevada show the snowpack is just 30% of average for this time of year.

Extremely warm weather is causing most of the precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow. “This will have major ramifications for western water managers if they don’t get some major winter storms soon,” Heim said.

Whether California heads into another drought cycle will depend largely on how much rain and snow falls during February and March.

Further east, the amount of snow on the ground is also far below average across the Colorado River Basin, where a 17-year run of mostly dry years has left reservoirs at alarmingly low levels.

“Mountain snowpack was abysmally low, reaching record low levels for this time of year in parts of New Mexico and Colorado,” Heim wrote in the monitor this week.

Climate scientists and managers of water agencies describe the situation as a “snow drought,” driven in part by winter temperatures that are well above the long-term average.

The southern Plains has also been bone-dry, where some spots haven’t seen a drop of rain in months. In Amarillo, Texas, for example, no measurable precipitation has fallen for a record 111 days…

In Oklahoma, pasture conditions were generally poor and deteriorating and 79% of the winter wheat crop was rated in poor to very poor condition, the Drought Monitor said.

Looking ahead, drought is expected to either persist or intensify over the next several months, the Climate Prediction Center said.

“The general trend of increasing drought coverage should continue through the end of April, as most areas of drought are expected to persist, along with development forecast in parts of southern California, central Colorado, and the southern Plains,” the center said.

From The Summit Daily (Jack Queen):

Colorado’s snowpack levels are roughly 60 percent of their historical average, and the southern reaches of the state remain in dire straits with only several months left in the snow season. Overall, it’s shaping up to be the state’s worst winter since 2012.

Water managers aren’t quite panicking yet, thanks to healthy reservoir levels that should be able to provide a backstop against drought. But if things don’t turn around soon, some of the many water jurisdictions fed by Colorado’s high-elevation snowpack could be in for tough times.

“There are some parts of the state that are in dire situations,” said Jim Pokrandt, director of community affairs for the Colorado River District, a state water policy agency. “I think it would be wise for water providers to look around the corner. We could still get up to 100 percent, but people should certainly start thinking about drought planning.”

As dismal scenes from Crested Butte and Telluride can attest, the southern mountains are faring the worst. The latest data show two river basins in the southwest corner of the state — the Upper Rio Grande and the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan — at 34 and 36 percent of average snowpack, respectively. The Gunnison basin to the north isn’t doing much better at 47 percent of historical snow-water equivalent.

The Upper Colorado River basin, which includes Summit County, is currently at a respectable 75 percent of average, owing partly to a La Niña affect that has been pushing storms northward.

A closer look indicates that despite underwhelming snow accumulations at local ski areas, Summit County has been having an unusually strong winter. Measurements by Denver Water show that snowpack on the mountains that drains into Dillon Reservoir is roughly 105 percent of its historical average.

“We’re faring a little bit better than the rest of the state, and in some areas like Summit County, we’re actually doing better than we typically would be this time of year,” said Travis Thompson, a Denver Water spokesman.

In all areas of the Upper Colorado River watershed where the agency collects water, snowpack is at 97 percent of normal, and its sites in the Upper South Platte watershed are at 91 percent.

Summit enjoyed a light dusting on Thursday that was expected to continue periodically into the weekend. Weak storms like that have characterized the 2017-18 winter season so far, a stark contrast to the season before, when a series of massive storms pummeled the county in December and January and built most of the winter’s total snowpack.

“We’re inching up and every little bit counts — a couple inches today, a couple inches tomorrow,” Pokrandt said. “Everybody’s looking for a 2-foot dump for a lot of reasons, but we’ll take what we can get. We’re inching ahead. … This year we just haven’t gotten that pineapple express effect that comes across dumping and dumping.”

From The Cortez Journal (Gabi Morey and Kristie Borchers):

What is snow, anyway? Snow crystals are born in high-altitude clouds, thousands of feet above Earth. Clouds are made up of water vapor containing microscopic water droplets. Clouds are visible because a million trillion water droplets are collected in one area. At the very center of the water droplet is a tiny particle of dust or salt. With below-freezing temperatures, the water droplets become very complex snow crystals.

How do snowflakes form?

Dust (sometimes salt) acts as a nucleus for condensation.

Water vapor condenses on the dust.

The water droplet grows larger in size.

When water cools, it freezes and becomes an ice crystal.

The crystal grows six-sides.

The crystal becomes heavier as more water vapor condenses and it begins to fall.

The crystal’s shape continuously changes as it falls and experiences continued condensation.

The crystals fall out of the clouds into warmer air, which makes them bunch-up together into snow

No two snowflakes are alike! Scientists have studied the growth of crystals in high-altitude clouds. In 1988, one scientist accidentally found twins in samples of ice crystals. While not identical, snow scholars called these two ice crystals “very much alike.” In the 20 minutes that it takes a typical ice crystal to fall to earth, two crystals would have to be exposed to identical conditions of temperature, pressure and moisture content. All collisions – and subsequent formations – with other crystals would also have to be identical, which makes identical snowflakes virtually impossible.

Snow is part of something called the cryosphere. The cryosphere includes the parts of the earth that are frozen in snow or ice. This includes the Antarctic, Arctic, sea ice, glaciers, as well as places such as mountain tops full of snow and ice, and even frozen soil.

From the Associated Press (Dan Elliott) The Aurora Sentinel:

Colorado has released an update of its state climate plan that includes additional steps to limit greenhouse gases and to prepare for potential impacts from global warming.

Gov. John Hickenlooper announced the update Wednesday at a symposium on clean energy and climate change.

The revision calls for a new rule on reporting on greenhouse gas emissions that mirrors a federal rule, working with utilities to increase the use of renewable energy and building more charging stations for electric vehicles.

It also calls for research into links between climate change and insect-born diseases and heat-related illnesses.

The update proposes that climate variability be included in statewide water planning and using forest management practices that reduce wildfires, improve wildlife habitat and capture and store carbon that might otherwise be released into the atmosphere.

From The Colorado Springs Gazette (Liz Forster):

Gov. John Hickenlooper rolled out the latest update of his climate blueprint for the state Wednesday at the first Colorado Communities Symposium, calling on nearly 400 local and state officials, businesses and nonprofit leaders in attendance to act to build an attractive brand for Colorado…

The plan highlights eight main areas – water, public health, greenhouse gas emissions, energy, transportation, agriculture, tourism and recreation, and ecosystems – as focal points for bolstering climate resilience and adaptivity.

Hickenlooper demanded leaders act with urgency, not only for the health of the environment but for the strength of Colorado’s economy. “The faster we move, the more it is to our benefit,” he said.

He mentioned the proposal to shut down two coal-fired power plants in Pueblo owned by Xcel Energy. The move would reduce air pollutants without a cost increase to Xcel customers in Pueblo, he and David Eves, the president of Xcel Energy Colorado, said.

And although it initially would displace 85 jobs at the plants, Xcel is exploring opportunities to open a solar project at the county’s steel mill facility to provide jobs and clean energy to the Pueblo County community, Eves said.

The symposium was born out of the governor’s executive order on climate change issued in July, which set emission reduction goals for the state, among other steps. Participants echoed Hickenlooper’s call for swift action, saying the state needs to move at the pace of technological development and in the direction of economic trends…

A hot topic at the symposium and across the state is transportation. With talk of electric vehicle expansion, autonomous public transit and a Hyperloop train between Cheyenne, Wyo., and Pueblo, Colorado policymakers and business owners are building partnerships to ensure that every pocket of the state benefits from such innovations.

The next two days of the symposium will be spent formulating concrete methods to tackle these challenges and propel Colorado forward as a leader in business, tourism and sustainability.

Although Colorado Springs City Council members, Mayor John Suthers and El Paso County commissioners are not in attendance, Colorado Springs Utilities and members of the Manitou Springs government are representing the county’s interests at the symposium.

US Drought Monitor January 30, 2018.

West Drought Monitor January 30, 2018.

Colorado Drought Monitor January 30, 2018.

Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

A weak ridge in the upper atmosphere tried to assert itself over the western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week, but Pacific storm systems moved through it in a stronger westerly flow. The ridge weakened the Pacific systems, limiting their precipitation to coastal areas from northern California to Washington, where 4 to locally 10+ inches of precipitation fell; the upslope portions of the Sierra in northern California, where mostly 2 inches or less precipitation was observed; and across the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies, where precipitation amounts ranged from 2-4 inches in the north to less than a tenth of an inch in the south. Most of the interior basin, 4 Corners States, and southern California received no precipitation. The Pacific lows and cold fronts were dried out as they crossed the Rockies, leaving the Great Plains and Upper Midwest with little to no precipitation. They picked up Gulf of Mexico moisture as they crossed the Mississippi River Valley, dropping 2 or more inches of rain in the wetter areas from southeastern Texas to Southern New England. Half an inch or more of precipitation occurred from the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to the East Coast. In spite of these areas receiving precipitation, the week was wetter than normal only along the northern California to Washington coast, the northern parts of the Pacific Northwest, and parts of the Gulf Coast, East Coast, and Mid-Appalachia. The rest of the CONUS was much drier than normal. Most of the CONUS was warmer than normal, with temperature departures as much as 10 degrees above normal in the Pacific Northwest and Midwest. The dryness this week was a continuation of severely dry conditions which have persisted for the last 3 to 4 months across much of the Southwest to southern Plains. Contraction of drought and abnormal dryness occurred in parts of the South to Mid-Atlantic where the heaviest rains fell, but drought expansion was the rule across the rest of the CONUS…

High Plains

This was a dry week across the High Plains region. Parts of Colorado and South Dakota received up to a fourth of an inch of precipitation, but nothing fell across most of the region. D1 crept a little to the east along the Canadian border in northeastern North Dakota. D1-D2 expanded in Kansas, where wells were drying up, creeks and springs were going dry, and ponds were near 2012 drought levels, especially in the central part of the state. According to end-of-January USDA reports, 79% of the topsoil in Kansas was rated short to very short of moisture (dry to very dry) and 44% of the winter wheat crop was in poor to very poor condition. In South Dakota, 64% of the topsoil moisture was short to very short, and in Colorado that statistic was 59%. Improvement was made in Nebraska, however, with D0 contracting in the central part of the state due to new data and a re-evaluation of the precipitation that fell last week…

West

With dry weather dominating the West this week and much of the last six or more months, D0 was expanded from California and Nevada northward across the Great Basin to Oregon and southern Idaho. Outside of the Pacific Northwest, impacts from drought were common across the West. As reported by the Nevada State Climatologist, dry conditions in northwest and eastern Nevada were impacting area ranchers. As reported to the National Weather Service, in southern Arizona ranchers were already starting (or preparing) to haul water for livestock as ponds were drying up. This is more typical of spring than mid-winter. Reports from drought wells in the southeast part of the state show declines more rapid than experts have ever seen down there, although some of the decline may be due to increased demand as ponds are drying up. CoCoRaHS condition reports included no forage for livestock on the hillsides in southern Arizona, and ranchers were hauling water for livestock in Gila County. Mountain snowpack was abysmally low, reaching record low levels for this time of year in parts of New Mexico and Colorado. Temperatures during the last three months have been well above average for much of the Southwest, including California, and this has increased evaporative demand which tends to dry out vegetation, soils, and water resources faster than under normal temperature conditions. The increased evaporation, combined with low precipitation, has helped expand drought in the Southwest. D1-D2 expanded in New Mexico and Utah, D1 protruded further into eastern Nevada, D2 grew in Arizona, and spots of D3 were added to Arizona.

With water resources so heavily managed, California is able to weather droughts reasonably well. Severe meteorological dryness can impact landscape and rangeland conditions while water supply conditions may be much better off. This makes it difficult to assess drought impacts. While some reservoirs (such as Diamond Valley in Riverside County) are nearly full, the D1 in southern California was expanded more to reflect long-term deficits and ties in to the growing risk of wildfires. Low mountain snowpack and water-year-to-date (October 1, 2017 to present) precipitation values prompted expansion of D0 expansion in northern California. According to the California State Climatologist, an 8-station index used for northern California monitoring registered right at D0 levels of dryness. D2 was added to southern California to reflect long-term precipitation deficits in Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties…

Looking Ahead

In the 2 days since the Tuesday morning cutoff time of this week’s USDM, light precipitation has fallen across the northern tier states while the southern CONUS has been dry. For February 1-6, a ridge will set up over the western U.S., blocking storm systems and bringing warmer-than-normal temperatures, while a trough will dominate the East with colder-than-normal air masses. No precipitation is in the forecast for the Southwest to southern Plains. Pacific systems tracking across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies are predicted to drop half an inch of precipitation with over 3 inches in favored high elevation locations. The systems will dry out as they cross the Rockies, dropping up to half an inch of precipitation across the northern Plains to Great Lakes. The fronts and surface lows will pick up Gulf of Mexico moisture as they travel into the eastern trough, bringing half an inch to an inch of precipitation from eastern Texas to the East Coast, with up to 2 inches expected from northeastern Mississippi to southern West Virginia. The ridge/trough pattern is expected to persist into February 7-14, continuing warmer-than-normal temperatures for the West and southern Alaska, and cooler-than-normal temperatures for the northern and central Plains to East Coast. Odds favor below-normal precipitation beneath the ridge across the West and into the central Plains. The February 7-14 period is expected to begin wetter than normal for the northern Plains to Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic to Northeast regions, but turn drier than normal for the latter part of the period. Odds favor above-normal precipitation in southern Alaska and below-normal precipitation in northern Alaska during this period.

From The Pagosa Sun (Chris Mannara):

The southwest region is classi- fied as D2, which is also known as severe drought.

The entire eastern portion of the state of Colorado has been catego- rized as D1, or moderate drought.

The northern portion of Colo- rado is categorized as D0, or ab- normally dry.

As of Wednesday, local snow- pack for the area containing the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins stood at 37 percent of the Jan. 31 median, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Natural Resource Conversation Service (NRCS).

The Wolf Creek summit sat at 41 percent of median as of Wednesday.

According to information from the USDA NRCS website, “The Snow Water Equivalent percent of Median represents the current snow water equivalent found at selected SNOTEL sites in or near the basin compared to the Median value for those sites on this day.”

The Upper San Juan Basin sat at 28 percent of median.

Comparatively, the Gunnison River Basin sat at 49 percent of median.

Local snowpack, however, is not the lowest in the state, with the the Upper Rio Grande Basin at 36 percent of median.

(Scroll down for Coyote Gulch posts.)

This event is cancelled. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Please consider attending my presentation, “Climate Change is Water Change,” Wednesday in Denver. We’ll consider the three questions: Should we act on Climate Change; Can we act on Climate Change; and, Will we Act on Climate Change?

Where: Smiley Branch Library, 4501 W 46th Ave, Denver, Colorado 80212
When: Wednesday, February 7, 2018, 6:00 – 7:00 PM

The presentation is part of the Climate Reality Project.