Click the link to read the discussion on the Climate Prediction Center website:
Febrary 13, 2025
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the near-term, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (66% chance).
La Niña conditions continued this past month, as indicated by the below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly indices were -0.6°C in Niño-3.4 and -0.9°C in Niño-4, with values close to zero in Niño-1+2 and Niño-3. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted, with below-average temperatures dominating the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Low-level wind anomalies remained easterly over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and western Pacific and was enhanced over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicated La Niña conditions.
The IRI multi-model average predicts weak La Niña conditions to continue through February-April 2025 and then transition to ENSO-neutral. The IRI dynamical model average and several of the models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict an earlier transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2025. The forecast team favors a weak La Niña through February-April, but there is also a 41% chance of ENSO-neutral emerging in this season. A weak La Niña is less likely to result in conventional winter/spring impacts, though predictable signals can still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the near-term, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (66% chance).