Click the link to read the post in Jeff’s LinkedIn feed:
May 6, 2026
In the Colorado River Basin, water year 2026 will go down in history…while also deepening the present crisis and casting a harsh light on the challenges of the future.
After yet another much drier- and warmer-than-normal month, NOAA CBRFC’s latest (May 1st) official 50% exceedance forecast for Lake Powell April-July inflows slid down to 800 KAF–an are-you-kidding-me 13% of average.
On my spaghetti plot for the past 36 years of Powell forecasted and observed inflows, the 2026 ‘most-probable’ forecast is now below the record-low volume in 2002 (963 KAF). It’s also below the April 1st 2026 70% exceedance forecast (950 KAF) that I said last month we should entertain as a more likely outcome, given the propensity and outlook for dry weather this spring.
If there’s any shine to put on this absolute turd of a water year, it’s that thanks to the extreme rain event in mid-October focused on the San Juan basin, and the early snowmelt, Lake Powell got 2200 KAF of inflow between October 1st and April 1st. That’s below normal, but not nearly as far below as the April-July flow will be.
And in the month of April, Powell got 366 KAF of inflow, which sets the absolute floor for the total April-July inflow volume–that is, the May 1st 50% forecast of 800 KAF includes that April inflow of 366 KAF. (As of May 5th, the observed inflow since April 1st is up to 403 KAF.)
So 2026 will end up as a very “front-loaded” water year, with most of the flow occurring outside of the April-July peak-runoff period, which typically accounts for ~80% of the water-year total. But even with that boost from the October storms, 2026 will end up rivaling, if not exceeding, 1977 and 2002 as the driest-ever water year.
Here’s the NOAA CBRFC Powell inflows forecast page and 2026 forecast evolution plot: https://lnkd.in/gCquGDEW
