Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

From Aug. 27 to Sep. 3, above-normal temperatures dominated the eastern United States, with areas along the Ohio River seeing temperatures upwards of 6 degrees above normal. The West and High Plains were a patchwork of above-, near- and below-normal temperatures. Isolated areas of southern New Mexico experienced temperatures of 5 degrees below normal. Overall, precipitation for most of the United States was within 1 inch of above- or below-normal conditions. This combination of hot and dry conditions led to continued drying in the Ohio River Basin, where conditions are dire. From Lake Superior southward to Alabama, drought conditions expanded with top and mid soil moisture and streamflow struggling. Texas and the western Gulf Coast saw over 8 to 10 inches of rain in some areas, quickly improving recent drying trends. In the West, there were dry conditions in the south and improving conditions in the Northwest…

High Plains

Parts of the eastern High Plains received precipitation. The areas of North Dakota and South Dakota in need of precipitation missed the 1 to 3 inches that fell in the central and eastern parts of the states. Abnormal dryness spread towards central Nebraska as the precipitation this week was very spotty. Southeast Nebraska into north-central and northeast Kansas saw both abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions expand despite precipitation this week, due to longer-term dryness. Southwestern Kansas has been seeing conditions continue to improve, leading to the trimming of abnormally dry, moderate and severe drought. The eastern foothills and plains of Colorado experienced little to no rain this week, leading to the expansion of moderate drought. Along the western Colorado border with Utah, abnormal dryness was removed with increased streamflows aiding conditions…

West

The West was a mixture of improvements in the northwest and Four Corners areas and degradations in in the desert areas of Nevada, Arizona, and California, plus isolated areas of the northern Rockies. South and central New Mexico received moisture, allowing some of the longer-term impacts to improve slightly. Utah saw some improvements on the eastern border with Colorado but did see abnormally dry conditions expand in Juab County and Millard County. In the Southwest, along with southern Nevada, western Arizona and southern California, abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions expanded. Moisture deficits continued in these areas, with not enough precipitation to aid in current dry conditions. Conditions from northwestern Washington southward along the Pacific Coast into northern California have seen improvements in short-term dryness, with streamflows and soil moistures improving. In central and northern Washington, there is still some lingering long-term drought but these, similarly to areas of short-term drought, are showing improvement…

South

Massive amounts of precipitation fell over Texas and along the Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana. Parts of central Texas saw 8 to 12 inches of rain. This moisture reversed much of the abnormally dry conditions introduced last week in central and southeastern Texas and western Louisiana. Northern Texas and Oklahoma missed out on meaningful precipitation, and with persistent dry conditions saw expansion of moderate and severe drought along the Texas-Oklahoma border. Precipitation deficits and drying soil moisture led to Tennessee seeing eastward expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate drought…

Looking Ahead

Over the next five days (September 4-9) the West and High Plains are likely to see little to trace amounts of precipitation, except for areas in the higher elevation of the southern Rocky Mountains. There is a better chance for precipitation in the Great Lakes region. There are three tropical waves in the Atlantic, with two having a 40 to 60% chance of developing into a tropical or sub-tropical cyclone within the next seven days. With these tropical waves the Gulf Coast states are likely to see 2 to 3 inches of rain.

The National Weather Service Climate Predication Center’s 6-10 day outlook heavily favors above-normal temperatures from the north-central Canadian border to Arizona-Mexican border. Surrounding areas to the west and east are leaning towards above-normal temperatures. From western Texas into Maryland the temperatures are expected to be near normal, with slightly increasing probability of cooler temperatures southward. Central and southern Florida are likely to see warmer-than-normal temperatures, along with the northern part of Alaska. The 6-10 day precipitation outlook is similar to the temperature outlook, though slightly shifted to the east. Areas of the northern Midwest are likely to see below-normal precipitation, with probability decreasing into the Rocky Mountains and Appalachian Mountains. There is a stronger probability that the Pacific Northwest and eastern Gulf Coast will see above normal precipitation. Hawaii and Alaska are also leaning toward above-normal precipitation.

Just for grins here’s a gallery of early September US Drought Monitor maps for the last few years.

46% of the Lower 48 is short/very short, 3% more than last week. Many of the Appalachian states dried out, and for the second week in a row, all of WV is short/very short. Much of the interior West also saw drying.

Click the link to read the release on the WMO website (Clare Nullis):

September 5, 2024

A vicious cycle of climate change, wildfires and air pollution is having a spiralling negative impact on human health, ecosystems and agriculture, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 

Key messages

• WMO Air Quality and Climate Bulletin highlights interlinkages
• Action against air pollution and climate change is win-win solution
• Wildfire smoke harms human, ecosystem and crop health
• Wildfire emissions cross borders and entire continents
• Particulate matter levels show differing regional trends

The WMO Air Quality and Climate Bulletin includes a special focus on wildfires. It also looks at global and regional concentrations of particulate matter pollution and its harmful effects on crops in 2023. 

The WMO bulletin was released for Clean Air for Blue Skies Day on 7 September. This year’s theme is Invest in Clean Air Now.  Ambient air pollution causes more than 4.5 million premature deaths annually and wreaks a high economic and environmental cost.

The bulletin, the fourth in an annual series, explores the intricate relationship between air quality and climate. 

The chemical species that lead to a degradation in air quality are normally co-emitted with greenhouse gases. Thus, changes in one inevitably cause changes in the other. 

Air quality in turn affects ecosystem health as air pollutants settle from the atmosphere to Earth’s surface.  Deposition of nitrogen, sulfur and ozone reduces the services provided by natural ecosystems such as clean water, biodiversity, and carbon storage.

“Climate change and air quality cannot be treated separately. They go hand-in-hand and must be tackled together. It would be a win-win situation for the health of our planet, its people and our economies, to recognize the inter-relationship and act accordingly,” said WMO Deputy-Secretary-General Ko Barrett.

“This Air Quality and Climate Bulletin relates to 2023. The first eight months of 2024 have seen a continuation of those trends, with intense heat and persistent droughts fuelling the risk of wildfires and air pollution. Climate change means that we face this scenario with increasing frequency. Interdisciplinary science and research is key to finding solutions,” said Ko Barrett.

Global 2023 particulate matter concentration 

Particulate matter PM_2.5 (i.e. with a diameter of 2.5 micrometers or smaller) is a severe health hazard, in particular if inhaled over long periods of time. Sources include emissions from fossil fuel combustion, wildfires and wind-blown desert dust.

The WMO bulletin used two independent and different products to estimate global particulate matter (PM) concentrations: the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO).

Both products found that wildfires over North America caused exceptionally high PM_2.5   emissions compared to the reference period 2003–2023. 

Above average PM_2.5   levels were also measured over India, due to an increase in pollution emissions from human and industrial activities. 

By contrast, China and Europe measured below-average levels, thanks to decreased anthropogenic emissions. This continues a trend observed since the WMO Bulletin was first published in 2021. 

Impacts of particulate matter on crops

Particulate matter has a major impact not just on health, but also on agriculture. It can reduce crop productivity in areas where maximizing yield is of crucial importance for feeding the population.

Global hotspots include agricultural areas in Central Africa, China, India, Pakistan and South-East Asia.

Experimental evidence from China and India indicates that particulate matter can reduce crop yields by up to 15% in highly polluted areas. It reduces the amount of sunlight reaching leaf surfaces and physically blocks leaf stomata which regulate exchange of water vapour and carbon dioxide with the atmosphere.

Agriculture itself is a major contributor to PM through release of particles and their precursors by stubble burning, fertilizer and pesticide applications, tillage, harvesting, and manure storage and use.

The WMO bulletin provides practical solutions, including planting trees or shrubs to physically shelter crops from local sources of PM, with added carbon sequestration and biodiversity benefits.

Wildfires

There were hyper-active wildfire seasons in both the northern and southern hemisphere in 2023. 

There are many different causes of wildfires, including land management and human actions (both accidental and arson). But climate change also has an indirect role by increasing the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and prolonging drought. These conditions heighten  the risk and likelihood of forest fires spreading, which in turn has a major impact on air quality. 

“Smoke from wildfires contains a noxious mix of chemicals that affects not only air quality and health, but also damages plants, ecosystems and crops – and leads to more carbon emissions and so more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” says Dr Lorenzo Labrador, a WMO scientific officer in the Global Atmosphere Watch network which compiled the Bulletin.

The 2023 wildfire season set a multi-decade record in Canada in terms of total area burned, with seven times more hectares burned than the 1990–2013 average, according to the Canadian National Fire Database.

Many large and persistent fires burned from the first week of May in western Canada (where it was unusually warm and dry) until the end of September. This led to  worsening air quality in eastern Canada and the north-eastern United States, particularly in New York City (in early June). Smoke was transported across the North Atlantic Ocean as far as southern Greenland and Western Europe. 

This resulted in cumulative total particulate matter and carbon emissions well above the annual average of at least the past 20 years. 

Central and southern Chile was struck by devastating wildfires in January and February 2023, with at least 23 deaths. More than 400 fires, many of them intentional, burned vast regions of plantations and woods. High temperatures and winds fuelled the fires in an area affected by a pervasive drought that has lasted more than a decade. The National Air Quality Information System recorded increased levels of all air pollutants in all stations.

As a result, the daily short-term exposure to ozone increased drastically at several monitoring stations. Chilean authorities declared a state of environmental emergency in various regions of central Chile.

“Concurrent observations of ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides and PM2.5 in central Chile exhibit the extreme detriment to air quality caused by intense and persistent wildfire events made more common in a warming climate,” write the Bulletin authors.

The Air Quality and Climate Bulletin also looks at:

Aerobiology. Accurate and timely information on concentrations of what is known as  “primary biological aerosols” (i.e. plant pollen, fungal spores, bacteria, etc), is in high demand from medical practitioners and allergy sufferers, agriculture and forestry industries, and climate change, biodiversity and air quality researchers, to name a few.

Bioaerosols play an important role in climate studies: vegetation is one of the most sensitive indicators of climate change. Biodiversity changes and plant flowering time, intensity and distribution patterns are all sensitive to meteorological conditions.

Over the past few years, and due to technological advances, new technologies have made it possible to obtain information on bioaerosol concentrations in real time. These new techniques open entirely new possibilities for the wide range of stakeholders interested in bioaerosols.

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:

August 22, 2024

Greenhouse gas concentrations, the global temperature across land and oceans, global sea level and ocean heat content all reached record highs in 2023, according to the 34th annual State of the Climate report. This is the most accessible BAMS State of the Climate report to-date.

The international annual review of the world’s climate, led by scientists from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information and published by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS), is based on contributions from more than 590 scientists in nearly 60 countries. It provides the most comprehensive update on Earth’s climate indicators, notable weather events and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice and in space.

Notable findings from the international report include:

Earth’s greenhouse gas concentrations were the highest on record. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide⁠—Earth’s major atmospheric greenhouse gases⁠—once again reached record high concentrations in 2023. Annual growth in global mean CO2 has increased from 0.6±0.1 ppm yr−1 in the early 1960s to an average of 2.5 ppm yr−1 during the last decade of 2014–23. The growth from 2022 to 2023 was 2.8 ppm, the fourth highest in the record since the 1960s. 

Record temperatures notable across the globe. A range of scientific analyses indicate that the annual global surface temperature was 0.99 to 1.08 of a degree F (0.55 to 0.60 of a degree C) above the 1991–2020 average. This makes 2023 the warmest year since records began in the mid to late 1800s, surpassing the previous record of 2016 by 0.23 to 0.31 of a degree F (0.13 to 0.17 of a degree C). The transition in the Pacific Ocean from La Niña at the beginning of the year to a strong El Niño by the end of the year contributed to the record warmth. All seven major global temperature datasets used for analysis in the report agree that the last nine years (2015–23) were the nine warmest on record. The annual global mean surface temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.14 to 0.16 of a degree F (0.08 to 0.09 of a degree C) per decade since 1880, and at a rate more than twice as high since 1981.

El Niño conditions contributed to record-high sea surface temperatures. El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean emerged in boreal spring 2023 and strengthened throughout the year. The mean annual global sea-surface temperature in 2023 was record high, surpassing the previous record of 2016 by 0.23 of a degree F (0.13 of a degree C). Each month from June to December was record warm. On August 22, an all-time high globally averaged daily sea-surface temperature of 66.18 degrees F (18.99 degrees C) was recorded. Approximately 94 percent of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2023, which is defined as sea-surface temperatures in the warmest 10 percent of all recorded data in a particular location on that day for at least five days. The eastern tropical and North Atlantic Ocean, the Sea of Japan, the Arabian Sea, the Southern Ocean near New Zealand, and the eastern tropical Pacific, were in a marine heatwave state for at least 10 months of 2023. The ocean experienced a new global average record of 116 marine heatwave days in 2023, which was far more than the previous record of 86 days in 2016, and a new record of 13 marine cold spell days, far below the previous record of 37 days in 1982.

Ocean heat and global sea level were the highest on record. Over the past half-century, the oceans have stored more than 90 percent of the excess energy trapped in Earth’s system by greenhouse gases and other factors. The global ocean heat content, measured from the ocean’s surface to a depth of 2000 meters (over 6,500 feet), continued to increase and reached new record highs in 2023. Global mean sea level was record high for the 12th-consecutive year, reaching about 4.0 inches (101.4 millimeters) above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began. This rise is an increase of 0.3±0.1 of an inch (8.1±1.5 millimeters) over 2022, the third highest year-over-year increase on record.

Antarctica sea ice sets record lows throughout 2023. Eight months saw new monthly mean record lows in sea ice extent and sea ice area, and 278 days in 2023 set new daily record-low sea ice extents. On February 21, Antarctic sea ice extent and sea ice area both reached all-time record lows, surpassing the previous record lows that were set just a year earlier in February 2022. On July 6, a new record-low daily sea ice extent was 695,000 square miles (1.8 million square kilometers) lower than the previous record low for that day.

The Arctic was warm and navigable. The Arctic had its fourth-warmest year in the 124-year record, with summer (July to September) record warm. Below-ground, permafrost temperatures were the highest on record at over half of the reporting sites across the Arctic. Permafrost thaw disrupts Arctic communities and infrastructure and can also affect the rate of greenhouse gas release to the atmosphere, potentially accelerating global warming. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the fifth-smallest in the 45-year record. The amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season in the Arctic—continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice that is more than four years old. Both the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage became accessible to non-ice-hardened marine traffic. The Northern Sea Route, connecting the European Arctic to the Pacific Ocean via the north coast of Russia and Bering Strait, saw 75 ship transits in the 2023 open season, the second-highest number of ships on record. The Northwest Passage, which connects the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific via northern Canada and Alaska waters, saw a record number of ship passages. A total of 42 ships made the complete Northwest Passage transit, far surpassing the previous record of 33 ships in 2017.

Antarctica sea ice sets record lows throughout 2023. Eight months saw new monthly mean record lows in sea ice extent and sea ice area, and 278 days in 2023 set new daily record-low sea ice extents. On February 21, Antarctic sea ice extent and sea ice area both reached all-time record lows, surpassing the previous record lows that were set just a year earlier in February 2022. On July 6, a new record-low daily sea ice extent was 695,000 square miles (1.8 million square kilometers) lower than the previous record low for that day.

Tropical cyclone activity was below average, but storms still set records around the globe. There were 82 named tropical storms during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons last year, which was below the 1991–2020 average of 87. Seven tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy—a combined measure of the strength, frequency, and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes—rebounded from the lowest in the 43-year record in 2022 to above average in 2023. Typhoon Doksuri (named Egay in the Philippines) caused $18.4 billion U.S. dollars in economic losses in the northern Philippines and China. Beijing received 744.8 mm of rain from remnants of the storm in a 40-hour period, which was the city’s heaviest rainfall in its 140-year record and caused floods that killed 137 residents. Tropical Cyclone Freddy became the world’s longest-lived tropical cyclone on record, developing into a tropical cyclone on February 6 and finally dissipating on March 12. Freddy crossed the full width of the Indian Ocean and made three landfalls in total: one in Madagascar and two in Mozambique. In the Mediterranean—outside of traditional tropical cyclone basins—heavy rains and flooding from Storm Daniel killed more than 4,300 people and left more than 8,000 missing in Libya. 

The State of the Climate report is a peer-reviewed series published annually as a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. The journal makes the full report openly available online. NCEI’s high-level overview report is also available online

43% of the Lower 48 is short/very short, 6% more than last week. Soils dried out throughout the US, except on the West Coast and in the Northeast. Greatest drying was in the Eastern U.S. All of WV is short/very short.

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

A strong ridge of high pressure maintained its grip across the central part of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during this U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week (August 21-27). It was responsible for warmer-than-normal temperatures that stretched across the Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Upper-level troughs of low pressure dominated the West and East coasts, keeping weekly temperatures cooler than normal on both ends of the country. Pacific weather systems spread above-normal precipitation over northern California to the Pacific Northwest as they moved through the western trough, then triggered bands of thunderstorms over the Rockies and central to northern Plains as they bumped up against the ridge. In between the West Coast and Rockies rain areas, the West was dry from southern California to northern Montana. Rain developed along a stationary front that was draped across Florida. But for most of the CONUS east of the Rockies, the week was drier than normal with little to no rain falling from western Texas to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The ridge migrated eastward as the week ended, so warmer-than-normal temperatures spread into the Midwest and Southeast. Abnormal dryness and drought expanded and intensified across the southern Plains and Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys in a rapidly developing flash drought situation, as well as parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, northern Plains, and Far West. Exceptional drought (D4) developed in parts of Ohio and West Virginia for the first time in the 25-year USDM history. Hurricane Hone’s rains brought improvement to most of the main Hawaiian Islands…

High Plains

Weekly temperatures were warmer than normal across most of the High Plains region, ranging from near to 2 degrees below normal in western Colorado to 6 to 10 degrees above normal in parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Thunderstorm complexes moved across parts of the region, dropping locally 2 to 3 inches of rain. In many cases, the storms were localized with one part of a county receiving rain and another part getting nothing – this was the case in other parts of the country as well. Drought or abnormal dryness contracted in a few areas of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota, but expanded or intensified in parts of all of the High Plains states. USDA statistics indicate half or more of the topsoil is short or very short in Wyoming (73%), Colorado (52%), and Kansas (52%), and half or more of the subsoil is short or very short in Wyoming (81%) and Kansas (57%)…

West

Most of the West region was cooler than normal, with temperatures more than 10 degrees below normal across interior portions, especially in Nevada; eastern areas were warmer than normal, up to 6 or more degrees above normal in eastern Montana and eastern New Mexico. More than 2 inches of rain fell over coastal parts of northern California, southern Oregon, and northern Washington, with 0.5 to 2 inches over large parts of the Four Corners states. The rain that fell was not enough to make up for deficits that have accumulated over several months to more than a year, so no improvement to the depiction was made. Abnormal dryness expanded in Nevada and southern California, where little to no rain fell this week, and moderate to extreme drought expanded in Montana. According to USDA statistics, half or more of the topsoil moisture was short or very short in Montana (82%), Oregon (77%), Idaho (68%), Washington (64%), New Mexico (62%), and Nevada (55%), and half or more of the subsoil moisture was short or very short in Montana (82%), Oregon (72%), Nevada (70%), Idaho (64%), Washington (63%), and New Mexico (63%). Half or more of the pasture and rangeland was rated in poor or very poor condition in Oregon (64%), Washington (60%), and Arizona (52%)…

South

Hot and dry conditions continued for the South region this week. Western parts of Texas and Oklahoma were the epicenter of the heat, with weekly temperatures averaging 6 to 10 degrees above average, with local areas even warmer. In the east, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee averaged 2 to 4 degrees cooler than normal. Parts of coastal Texas to the state’s interior received half of an inch to locally 2 inches of rain, but this mostly fell on drought-free areas. Most of the South region had no rain this week. Abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought expanded in all of the states, while extreme drought expanded in Texas and developed in Oklahoma, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The heat and dryness of this August have resulted in flash drought conditions. Summer last year was a period of record and near-record heat and dryness. These extreme conditions of these two periods have combined to overwhelm the wet conditions that happened during the intervening months. More than half of the topsoil and subsoil moisture was short or very short across all states, with Texas leading at 72% of the subsoil and 81% of the topsoil so rated. More than 70% of the topsoil was short or very short in Louisiana (77%) and Mississippi (72%), and more than 60% so rated in Arkansas (63%) and Tennessee (64%). In Texas, 41% of the cotton crop and 58% of the pasture and rangeland was in poor to very poor condition. Drought impact reports in Oklahoma included desiccated fields, dry ponds, and a high risk of wildfires, as well as low reservoir levels in the southwestern part of the state. In Tennessee, drought impacts include pastures providing little to no feed, drying or dried up ponds, creek levels very low, complete or near crop failure. In Mississippi, 4 counties have burn bans, pastures in the northern half of the state are no longer producing grass for cattle, and soils are so dry they no longer can support vegetation…

Looking Ahead

In the two days since the Tuesday valid time of this USDM, scattered showers and thunderstorms brought areas of rain to a few parts of the Southwest, northern Rockies, northern and southern Plains, Midwest, and Florida, but the rest of the CONUS was mostly dry. For August 29-September 3, an upper-level ridge will build over the West, bringing warmer- and drier-than-normal weather, while a weather system moves across the eastern CONUS and a weather disturbance lingers over the western Gulf of Mexico Coast. An inch or more of rain, with locally over 2 inches, is forecast for the southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Carolinas to New York. Four or more inches could fall over parts of the southern Plains, New Mexico, and western Gulf Coast. The rain will help to improve drought conditions in the Deep South and central Appalachians, but won’t be enough to end the drought. The Rockies to West Coast, and western High Plains, are forecast to receive no precipitation during this period.

For much of the next 2 weeks, a ridge will remain anchored over the West with a trough along the East Coast, while a couple weather systems try to move through this upper-level blockade. The Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) 6-10 Day Outlook (valid September 3-7) and 8-14 Day Outlook (valid September 5-11) favor warmer-than-normal temperatures across the West, central and northern Plains, along the Gulf of Mexico Coast, and over the eastern half of Alaska, with near to cooler-than-normal temperatures expected over parts of the southern Plains and from the Ohio Valley to East Coast. Odds favor below-normal precipitation across most of the West, the northern tier states, the Midwest, the northern and central Plains, and Hawaii. Odds favor above-normal precipitation across the Gulf of Mexico Coast to the Carolinas, and over eastern Alaska.

Click the link to read the article on the Kansas Reflector website (Clay Wirestone):

August 26, 2024

Speaker after speaker at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last week hauled out an oversized prop copy of Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s guide to creating a more perfect conservative presidential administration.

Former president Donald Trump and his presidential campaign have disavowed the plan, saying it doesn’t represent his views. But the document was prepared by former members of his administration and overlaps with much of what the candidate has advocated (270 proposals and counting, according to CBS News). If you want to know what a second Trump administration would bring, there’s no better guide.

And Kansans have gotten the message.

I was part of a panel digging into the specifics Tuesday in Lenexa, brought together by the nonprofit Mainstream Coalition. We spoke to a capacity crowd of more than 200 everyday folks who wanted to know all the gory details. What became clear over the hour and a half was how these plans could upend institutions and plans right here in Kansas. 

Kansas Reflector opinion editor Clay Wirestone joins a panel discussion on Project 2025 on Aug. 20 at Shawnee Mission Unitarian Universalist Church.

Amii Castle, a professor at the University of Kansas, summarized the myriad ways the document attacks abortion rights. Yes, an overwhelming majority of Kansans turned out to reject an anti-choice state constitutional amendment. But that wouldn’t matter if Project 2025 were implemented. It foresees a de facto national ban on the procedure through enforcement of the long-dormant Comstock law and restructuring of the Department of Health and Human Services into the Department of Life.

“You have to really read the document to go through and see all of the different things that they want to do with respect to abortion,” Castle told the crowd. “But really what it amounts to is absolutely no abortions in the United States and no contraception.”

Kansas public education advocates have struggled for decades to ensure the state adequately funds schools. The Heritage Foundation’s plan takes a different approach, to put it mildly.

Project 2025 calls for eliminating the Department of Education, ending Head Start and cutting off Title I funding for schools serving low-income students. As you might expect, it also calls for universal “school choice,” weakening the system that has educated generations of Kansans.

“Basically the federal government steps out of education entirely and leaves all of this to state and local governments,” said Andrea Vieux, an associate professor of political science at Johnson County Community College, at the Mainstream event. “Now, if you’re in a state that values public education, great. If you’re not in a state that values public education, that’s going to be a problem.”

At nearly 1,000 pages, Project 2025 goes on and on.

Underlying the bewildering assortment of proposals (which include restructuring the executive branch, overhauling the immigration system, targeting climate spending and banning pornography) lurks something far darker. Heritage has embraced Christian Nationalism, envisioning an America in which the federal government has merged with the most repressive and retrograde form of evangelical Christianity. State Rep. Susan Ruiz, D-Shawnee, emphasized this connection to the crowd.

“It’s the thread that goes through the entire document,” she said. “And for me, it is the foundation with which they have built everything up.”

Money, power and local control

The evening event in Lenexa could have run far longer. The audience submitted dozens of questions for moderator Laurel Burchfield, Mainstream’s advocacy director. Those of us on the panel did our level best to provide context.

The discussion focused my thinking on the fringe conservative movement that has wormed itself into the brains of formerly sensible people. Project 2025 has become a flashpoint in the presidential race because it condenses this extremism. Trump can distance himself all he wants — and fact checkers can offer him cover — but everyone sees the overlap. Everyone understands the subsequent lies for political advantage.

It also highlights the blatant hypocrisy of those who bankroll hard-right campaigns and think tanks like Heritage. They don’t care about the damage done to reproductive rights or the education system or religious freedom. They care about the taxes they pay, the regulations their companies face, and the lives of privilege they enjoy.

The billionaire members of this plutocratic elite don’t need a government to protect their rights. Their dollars do that.

If their wives or daughters or girlfriends need abortion care, they will receive that abortion, no matter where they are or what the law says. Their children and grandchildren and friends can receive astonishing educational opportunities no matter the quality of public schools. They may be evangelical Christians or not, but their freedom won’t be abridged by federal law. They can always head to another country.

Those wealthy beyond the dreams of Midas don’t have to worry about losing health insurance because they can always pay for whatever treatment they need. They can flee the worst effects of climate change. They can rest easy at night, knowing they won’t ever lose their job or require unemployment assistance or food stamps.

That leaves them free to bankroll would-be authoritarians. It leaves them free to support the spread of Christian nationalism without the slightest concern for themselves or their families.

It leaves them free to threaten everyday Kansans.

So what can be done? Kansas voters will likely have little to contribute to the national presidential contest. As a largely red state, albeit less conservative than its reputation suggests, Kansas’ six electoral votes will likely go to Trump.

However, we do have power, and that power can be grasped and employed by engaging with politics at a local level. That means school boards, city councils, county commissions, and state government. That means understanding the roles of advisory boards, volunteer organizations and community institutions. Those funding Project 2025 and sympathetic candidates would like nothing more than seeing our nation degraded into tiny radicalized fortresses, mainlining Fox News and bristling with weaponry.

What they don’t want to see is a nation where residents actually care for one another and step up to help when the need arises. For all their chatter about honoring family, hard-right extremists attack and demonize young people rather than including them in our nation’s future. They want power and profit now, damn the consequences.

Turning the avaricious tide won’t be easy. But last week, I witnessed an audience eager to toss Project 2025 onto the ash heap of history.

Clay Wirestone is Kansas Reflector opinion editor. Through its opinion section, Kansas Reflector works to amplify the voices of people who are affected by public policies or excluded from public debate. Find information, including how to submit your own commentary, here.

Click the link to access the letter on the American Geophysical Union website (Caelan E. Simeone, John C. Hammond, Stacey A. Archfield, Dan Broman, Laura E. Condon, Hisham Eldardiry, Carolyn G. Olson, Jen C. Steyaert):

Abstract

Hydrological drought is a pervasive and reoccurring challenge in managing water resources. Reservoirs are critical for lessening the impacts of drought on water available for many uses. We use a novel and generalized approach to identify periods of unusually low reservoir storage—via comparisons to operational rule curves and historical patterns—to investigate how droughts affect storage in 250 reservoirs across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We find that the maximum amount of water stored in reservoirs is decreasing, and that periods of unusually low storage are becoming longer, more severe, and more variable in (a) western and central CONUS reservoirs, and (b) reservoirs with primarily over-year storage. Results suggest that reservoir storage has become less reliable and more vulnerable to larger deviations from desired storage patterns. These changes have coincided with ongoing shifts to the hydroclimate of CONUS, and with sedimentation further reducing available reservoir storage.

Key Points

• Low-storage periods are longer, more severe, and more variable in over-year storage reservoirs and in the western and central CONUS
• Longer periods of low storage for some regions in recent years suggests decreased reservoir reliability in a changing hydroclimate
• Maximum annual storage is also declining across CONUS, furthered by storage losses from sedimentation

Plain Language Summary

Drought in water systems is a major challenge in managing water resources. Reservoirs are important as they can lessen the impacts of drought on water availability for many users. However, they are impacted by drought as well. We use a novel and generally applicable method to identify when reservoir storage is unusually low, potentially from drought, at 250 reservoirs across the conterminous U.S. We find that the maximum amount of water stored in reservoirs is decreasing across the U.S. We also find that periods of unusually low storage are becoming longer and more severe in western and central U.S. regions as well as for certain types of reservoirs. This suggests that reservoir storage may be less reliable and more vulnerable to extreme conditions and may be further impacted by changing climate and hydrology across the U.S. and by sediment building up behind reservoirs.

Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Alex Hager):

August 23, 2024

This story is part of ongoing coverage of the Colorado River, produced by KUNC and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.

A new study of high-mountain snow and rain suggests research should pay more attention to springtime conditions than scientists previously thought. The new data could help hone water supply forecasts for the streams that feed the Colorado River.

Researchers with the University of Washington initially set up a study near Crested Butte, Colo. to gather data about wintertime snow behavior. However, they found that weather and climate factors in warmer months had a noticeable impact on the amount of snowmelt that ended up flowing into streams and rivers.

“We thought it was about snow,” said Jessica Lundquist, a co-author of the study. “Really, when we looked at all the statistics across all the seasons, spring is the most dynamic season, and this tells us to change our focus to what’s happening in the spring.”

Water forecasts for the Colorado River, which supplies about 40 million people across seven western states, are mostly focused on mountain snow. Eighty-five percent of the Colorado River starts as snow in the high-altitude mountains of Colorado and Wyoming.

As climate change and steady demand have shrunk the river’s supplies, scientists have worked to produce increasingly granular data about that mountain snow and how it melts. That gives water managers — sometimes in cities hundreds of miles away — a more accurate sense of how much water they can expect to flow their way each year.

In this case, spring is defined as March, April, and May. The factors that make those months so important are sunshine, plants, and rain.

If it’s sunny in the spring, plants are thirstier and soak up more snowmelt from the ground. If it’s cloudy and rainy, two things happen — plants are less thirsty and pull less water from the soil, and the water they do get is more likely to be recently fallen rain instead of snowmelt.

“If it’s going to be sunny, the plants are going to say, ‘Oh, I’m so happy. The snow just melted and I have a ton of water, so I’m going to grow like gangbusters,’” said Danny Hogan, the study’s other author. “This research really centers the importance of studying the whole snow season, not just when the snowpack is the deepest.”

Hogan and Lundquist said this research, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, is important because it helps explain why streamflow has varied so greatly in recent decades. Since 2000, streamflow in the Colorado River basin has gone down by 19%. The new data shows springtime precipitation and water demand from plants account for about two-thirds of that change.

Warming temperatures in the 21st century have made it harder to predict the amount of water that ends up in the Colorado River each year. Previously, forecasts were mostly focused on the amount of snow in the mountains. But recent years have brought a growing gap between the amount of snow that falls and the amount of snowmelt that flows through streams, rivers, and reservoirs.

Scientists are only beginning to understand what is driving that gap.

Hogan and Lundquist originally set out to study another under-researched factor that influences the difference between snow totals and streamflow. At the research site near Crested Butte, they first studied snow sublimation — the process by which snow evaporates before it has a chance to melt.

For the winter of 2023-2024, models projected that 30% to 40% of snow would be lost to sublimation. The team found that about 10% of snow was actually lost to sublimation, less than models predicted. Those findings helped pave the way for the paper on spring conditions.

Other scientists have also been studying the influence of climate change on runoff. Much of that work has focused on soil moisture. Early findings indicate that warmer temperatures are causing drier soils, which soak up snowmelt before it has a chance to reach streams and rivers.

Click the link to read the blog post on the Colorado Climate blog (Peter Goble):

August 23, 2024

The Farmer’s Almanac released their official winter forecast map for winter 2024-2025, and in the meteorological community this means… nothing. Despite the consistent national and local media attention the Farmer’s Almanac gets year-after-year, and assertions about its fabled accuracy, it is not a tool that the scientific community uses or endorses.  

Seasonal forecasting is a very difficult problem, and the forecasts are often wrong, sometimes even verifying worse than a random guess, so why wouldn’t weather forecasters embrace the Farmer’s Almanac? There are two major reasons: 1. The Farmer’s Almanac’s seasonal forecasting methods are not transparent, and 2. The Farmer’s Almanac is not skillful.  

Let’s start with the lack of transparency: There is no peer reviewed scientific literature backing the Farmer’s Almanac’s seasonal forecasting methods. In fact, their methods aren’t even disclosed. This from farmersalmanac.com: “Over the years, various methods have been used to make the Farmers’ Almanac predictions, including studying sunspot cycles, solar activity, tidal forces, and even the reversal of winds in the stratosphere over the equator.” They add: “The Moon acts as a “meteorological swizzle stick,” occasionally stirring up atmospheric disturbances with its cyclical and predictable movements…” As a climate scientist, this description of methods does not instill me with confidence. While we know that sunspot cycles, and the quasi-biennial oscillation (reversal of winds in the stratosphere over the equator) do influence seasonal weather to some degree, there is no mention of some of the largest tools used by in seasonal forecasting: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and trends associated with climate change. As for the moon being a “meteorological swizzle stick,” yes, the moon actually does impact the weather. The atmosphere is a fluid just like the ocean, and a full moon stretches the atmosphere out slightly much like the ocean tides. This effect has been shown to raise precipitation rates, but only by 1-2%. Furthermore, this is a daily cycle. Whether the moon is new or full, we face the moon once/day. How can a daily cycle, which is always present, be used to make a forecast more accurate for the whole winter? I would ask the Farmer’s Almanac forecaster my questions personally, but the forecaster (yes, it’s apparently just one person, not a team) who goes by the pseudonym Caleb Weatherbee, remains anonymous so he is not “hassled.” I believe a seasonal forecaster should be able to defend their forecasting methods against the scruples of scientific peer review and public comment. 

What about accuracy? The average customer probably will not care that the Farmer’s Almanac methods are opaque so long as the forecasts are accurate. A 2010 Weatherwise study from the University of Illinois used a list of 32 cities to test the accuracy of the Farmer’s Almanac and found that it was just under 52% accurate; not much better than a coin flip. Yet the tool’s popularity persists. Why? Have the forecasts improved? Are they equal to, or better than, the seasonal forecasts climatologists and meteorologists look at? For this blog, we evaluate the skill of the Farmer’s Almanac winter outlooks relative to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center CPC seasonal outlooks over the last five years (winter 2019-2020 through winter 2023-2024). The current CPC winter forecast is shown below:  

The data: We used 4km resolution Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes (PRISM) modeled climate data from across the contiguous United States. PRISM leverages observations from trusted weather networks (such as the National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program) and uses physically derived relationships between meteorological variables and elevations/slope angles to create beautiful, spatially complete reanalyses of our weather. We averaged December-February PRISM temperatures and precipitation over the regions shown in the Farmer’s Almanac above. This is our forecast verification dataset. A description of which states are in which region is available in the following table (bear in mind that the Farmer’s Almanac drew these regions, not me. I would never consider Tennessee part of the “Great Lakes” region):  

Selecting Forecasts for Evaluation: One of the problems with testing the skill of the Farmer’s Almanac forecasts is that most of the language is subjective. For example, the Farmer’s Almanac forecast for winter 2022-2023 in the North-Central region was “Hibernation Zone. Glacial, Snow-Filled.” How does one evaluate this forecast? Is a normal, or even above normal, winter in the north-central United States not glacial and snow-filled? Because of this we will only evaluate skill in regions where the Farmer’s Almanac declares that temperature or precipitation will be below, near, or above normal. For the sake of consistency, we will only evaluate the Climate Prediction Center in the same number of regions for the same variables. For instance, if the Farmer’s Almanac makes testable claims in two regions for temperature, and one for precipitation, we will use the CPC maps to do the same, testing their two most confident regional temperature predictions, and single most confident precipitation predictions.  

Testing skill: It is common for seasonal forecasts to be made using terciles. A tercile represents one third of the probability distribution of a dataset. The lower tercile represents below normal conditions, the middle tercile represents near normal conditions, and the upper tercile represents above normal conditions. For example, if winter temperatures were colder than in 80% of years in the historical record, that would be in the lower tercile (since in over two thirds of years temperatures were greater). In this study we use the following scoring matrix to judge a winter forecast:    

Below normal will be defined as temperatures or precipitation within (or below) the lower third of the 1991-2020 climate normals. Above normal is defined as temperatures or precipitation within (or above) the upper third of the 1991-2020 climate normals distribution for a region. Near normal is defined as the middle tercile in the 1991-2020 PRISM climate normals. For example, if the Farmer’s Almanac forecasts “normal temperatures” for the Pacific Northwest Region in winter 2022, and the PRISM averaged December-February temperatures fall within the 1991-2020 middle tercile range, that forecast is worth +2 points. If it is outside of the middle tercile range, it is worth –1. Upper and lower tercile forecasts work differently: they are worth more points if correct (because the forecaster must be confident in a deviation from normal) but will burn the forecaster if they miss by a wide margin. An upper or lower tercile forecast that is correct is worth +3, but if the opposite tercile verifies, it is –3. Note that the expected value for a lower, middle, or upper tercile forecast is zero if forecasting randomly. 

Complications: There are a few problems with these methods that would need to be examined more closely to submit this kind of comparison to peer review: 1. Unlike CPC, the Farmer’s Almanac forecasts, even when calling for below, near, or above normal, make no mention of terciles. The Farmer’s Almanac forecaster may tailor their seasonal forecasts a bit differently if apprised to the rules of our game. 2. It is also worth noting that the CPC forecasts are not deterministic, they are probabilistic. Each grid point is assigned a probability of below normal, near normal, and above normal temperature and precipitation. In this evaluation CPC forecasts are treated as deterministic. In some cases, a CPC forecast is treated as calling for “above normal” or “below normal” temperature or precipitation when CPC is only 40-50% confident in above (or below) the upper (or lower) tercile. 3. The CPC does not use the climate divisions drawn in the Farmer’s Almanac, or any divisions for that matter; it is a gridded product. Determining the regions in which CPC is most confident in the winter forecast sometimes takes some creative eyeballing. Like the Farmer’s Almanac, the CPC forecast team would probably tailor their winter forecasts differently if apprised to the rules of the game. With all the methodology and caveats finally out of the way, let’s play! 

2019-2020: Year number one of our Farmer’s Almanac vs Climate Prediction Center skill challenge is winter (December-February) 2019-2020. If we look at the Farmer’s Almanac forecast, we see a few subjective yet colorful descriptions of winter: “frozen, snowy,” “brisk & wet,” “frosty, wet & white.” These descriptions generally describe the winter climates of the Great Lakes, Southeast, and Atlantic Regions of the United States respectively. However, we do see three claims that we can test using PRISM temperature and precipitation data: “Normal Precipitation” in the Pacific Northwest, “Normal Precipitation” in the Southwest, and “Average Precipitation” in the South-Central Region. We will not distinguish between “normal” and “average” here. For each of these regions, a December-February precipitation value in the middle tercile range of the 1991-2020 normals will be scored as +2, and an outer-tercile value will be scored as –1. 

The 2019-2020 Pacific Northwest Region-average December-February precipitation value of 14.26” is ever-so-close to the inner tercile range (11.15-14.16”), but no cigar. -1. The southwest region verified much drier than normal. -1 again. However, the South-Central region value of 7.87” barely squeezes into the inner tercile range of 6.33-7.88”. +2. It’s a wash for an annual score of zero.  

All three of the Farmer’s Almanac’s testable claims were precipitation forecasts. Per our methods above, we will now score the CPC’s three most confident regional precipitation forecasts for December-February 2019-2020. These include above normal precipitation over the North-Central and Great Lakes Regions, and below normal precipitation over the Southwest Region.  

The CPC starts strong in winter 2019-2020 with a clean sweep. PRISM-averaged, North-Central Region Precipitation verifies across the region at 3.47”, which, believe it or not, is above the 67^th percentile value of 3.22”. This region is so cold in winter that high precipitation events are rare. The Great Lakes Region value comes in at 11.17”, comfortably eclipsing the 67^th percentile of 9.30”. The Southwest Region, as stated earlier, was dry, which also matched the CPC forecast. 

At the end of one round, the scoreboard reads CPC: 9, Farmer’s Almanac: 0 with the CPC achieving the maximum possible score for the round. Is hope lost for the Farmer’s Almanac already? With four of five years remaining, I doubt it!

2020-2021: It is a new year and new battle for the Farmer’s Almanac, who have again submitted a forecast with top-notch descriptive language. This forecast includes details about the interregional and intertemporal variation of temperature and precipitation: “Wet Coastal Regions, Snowy Inland” for the Southwest, and “Temperamental! Wild swings from mild to tranquil to cold & wintery” for the South-Central Region. Within this forecast lies two testable claims: “Normal Temps” for the Southwest and “Seasonably Cold” for the… Mid-Atlantic? This region is not used in all years. We will create an ad-hoc region from Virginia up though Pennsylvania that runs from West Virginia to the Atlantic Coast to score this. Indeed, both the Southwest and Mid-Atlantic Regions had near normal winter temperatures, giving the Farmer’s Almanac a score of +4 for the year. 

How about the CPC? Given our stated methods, this time, we must test their two most confident regional temperature forecasts. This includes an increased chance of above normal temperatures for the Southwest and South-Central Regions. The Southwest saw near-normal winter temperatures. The Farmer’s Almanac called it. The CPC did not. Does it get better for the CPC from here? Oh no! The CPC’s call for increased chances of a warmer than normal winter in the South-Central Region will not amuse Texans, who had disastrous, and sometimes deadly, impacts from a horrible cold snap in February 2021, which saw millions of Americans without power. This earns the CPC an emphatic –3. 

At the end of two rounds the Farmer’s Almanac has nearly drawn even, trailing by a manageable deficit of 6-4. 

2021-2022: The 2021-2022 winter comes with greater potential for the tide to shift in either direction. The Farmer’s Almanac has submitted a seasonal forecast with six testable claims: three for temperature, and three for precipitation. Descriptive language still abounds, calling for “numb’s the word, just shoveling along” in the North-Central Region. We also have calls for normal, or typical, temperature and precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Southwest Regions, near normal precipitation in the South-Central Region, and “typical winter chill” in the Northeast Region. The Northeast Region did see “typical winter chill,” with an average temperature of 25.3 °F, comfortably inside the middle tercile. I did want to subtract points for the addition of “stormy Jan, tranquil Feb.” as this was not even close to true. February was easily the coldest month of the winter in New England in 2022. I’ll award credit for the forecast of average winter temperatures, even if the temporal variability was plainly wrong. +2. The Farmer’s Almanac correctly called near-normal winter temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, but precipitation verified just outside of the inner tercile: 11.10” (the 33^rd percentile is 11.15”). The Almanac forecast was ugly down south. It called for near normal temperatures and precipitation for the Southwest, and near normal precipitation for the South-Central Region. Both regions were significantly warmer and drier than normal. All tallied, it’s a wash. The Farmer’s Almanac made six testable claims and scored a net zero points. 

We evaluated the CPC’s three most confident regional forecasts for temperature and precipitation. The region-averaged December-February temperatures were 45.7 °F for the South-Central Region and 49.7 °F for the Southeast Region. These marks were comfortably in the upper tercile of the 1991-2020 distribution and net the CPC +6 points. The call for an increased probability of above normal temperatures in New England did not pan out, again thanks to that bone-chilling February. Zero points. The CPC also made a smart call in the Great Lakes, forecasting an increased probability of above normal precipitation, likely driven by La Niña conditions. The region average of 9.82” did exceed the 67^th percentile of 9.30”. It was a wash out west. The CPC faced a tough break as the increased probability of above normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest was followed by lower tercile precipitation, -3 points. However, the forecast of an increased probability of below normal precipitation in the southwest did pan out. The December-January value of 4.31” was below normal, netting +3. 

Three years of data and 11 total testable claims was enough for the CPC to begin to pull away from the Farmer’s Almanac with cumulative scores of +15 for the CPC, and +4 for the Farmer’s Almanac. 

2022-2023: The winter 2022-2023 season brought the third year in a row of La Niña conditions. The prevailing evidence suggests that this is associated with wetter than normal conditions over the northern United States, especially the Great Lakes Region, and drier than normal conditions over the south and southwestern United States. Much warmer than normal Atlantic Ocean temperatures also lent confidence, at least for the CPC, that a warmer than normal winter could occur up and down the eastern seaboard.  

The Farmer’s Almanac forecast featured three testable claims this winter including “normal precipitation” for the Pacific Northwest, “drier than normal” for the Southwest, and “normal precipitation” for the South-Central Region. Other regional forecasts, such as “Hibernation Zone, Glacial, Snow-Filled” for the North-Central Region, and “Significant Shivers, Slushy, Icy, Snowy” for the Northeast Region unfortunately could not be scored. 

The Farmer’s Almanac net +1 points in 2023, dropping back down to a cumulative score of just +2. “Normal precipitation” was the correct forecast for the Pacific Northwest and South-Central Regions. The call for “drier than normal” in the Southwest was terrible as much of the Sierra Nevadas and western Rocky Mountains received near-to-record high snowpack in winter 2023. One might also argue that “unreasonably cold” was not a good forecast for the Great Lakes Region, which had one of the mildest winters on record. However, perhaps it is fair to counter that winter in the Great Lakes Region is always “unreasonably cold.” 

The Climate Prediction Center net another +3 points in winter 2022-2023 with their three most confident regional precipitation predictions. The Great Lakes Region again verified with above normal precipitation at 9.55″ averaged across the region. The CPC forecast called for an increased probability of below normal precipitaiton in the South-Central and Southeastern Regions. Both of these regions ended up with near normal precipitation, and scored 0 points.

Neither the Farmer’s Almanac nor the CPC had a particularly strong showing in 2022-2023, netting only +1 and +3. After four years, the cumulative scores are +18 for the CPC and +5 for the Farmer’s Almanac. With just one year left in our forecast competition, it would take a crystal ball for the Farmer’s Almanac to make up that kind of a deficit. 

2023-2024: The Farmer’s Almanac only floundered in the final year of competition, calling for ”unseasonably cold” conditions in the South-Central Region (it was warmer than normal: -3) and ”seasonably cold” conditions in the Pacific Northwest (also warmer than normal: -1).  

Winter 2023-2024 brought El Niño conditions for the first time in the five-year competition. Meanwhile, Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies remained high. The CPC used these facts in tandem to confidently call for increased chances of above normal temperatures across the northern United States and above normal precipitation in the southeastern United States. CPC had a very good year, and had the Farmer’s Almanac made more testable claims about temperature and precipitation, it could have scored as high as +12 or +15. However, the call for increased chances of above normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and Northeast both verified, and can be counted using our methodology above for an additional +6. 

All things considered, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center blew out the Farmer’s Almanac over our last five years of winter temperature and precipitation predictions. The CPC came away with a final score of +24, and the Farmer’s Almanac came away with a score of +1 where the expected value for both entities using random number generation would be 0.  

The CPC shined in the Great Lakes Region, netting +9 points in over five years. Some of the CPC’s totals could have been higher if we were not enforcing that the CPC only be evaluated on the same number of regional forecasts/year as the Farmer’s Almanac. The CPC did not shine everywhere. The CPC net zeros points in the Pacific Northwest, which was worse than the Farmer’s Almanac (+3), and zeros points in both the South-Central and Northeast Regions (tied with the Farmer’s Almanac). When we look at individual regions, five years is a small sample size, so I would not recommend Seattle residents pick up this year’s copy of The Almanac today. The North-Central Region was also tricky for the CPC because it is a large, diverse region, and seasonal forecasts rarely leaned confidently one way or the other across the region. In some cases, there was an increased probability of above normal temperatures in the south end of the region, and below normal temperatures in the northern end of the region, or vice versa.  

The CPC’s score of +24 was greater than that of over 99% of 10000 simulations using random number generation, so we can say with confidence that the CPC is better at forecasting winter temperature and precipitation than random forecasting. The Farmer’s Almanac score was only better than about 55% of 10000 random number generation simulations. We cannot reject the hypothesis that the Farmer’s Almanac makes winter forecasts equivalent in skill to picking randomly. This is the outcome I expected given the tools and resources these two entities use to make their predictions.  

Seasonal forecasting is an ongoing challenge in the scientific community. For many stakeholders, significantly better than random chance is simply not good enough. More precision is often needed for stakeholders to make changes to their operations based on a forecast (e.g. farmers planting different crops, ski resorts extending snow making operations). I still understand why the Farmer’s Almanac is popular. It is entertaining. However, if you are considering making decisions based on a seasonal forecast that have any real economic consequence, I strongly suggest deferring to experts like the Climate Prediction Center.