Snowfall in the West will probably decline under climate change. Even in areas with more precipitation that moisture will likely come as rain. This is a big water rights question as many irrigators do not have storage and will likely not have much end of crop season water. Here’s a report from Brett Walton writing for Circle of Blue. Click through and read the whole post. Here’s an excerpt:

Famously overcast and stormy in the cold months, the Pacific Northwest is normally a haven for snow lovers. From volcanic peaks to valley basins, winter resounds with the glee of cherry-cheeked skiers and the terror of thunderous avalanches. Mount Baker, a mainstay of the Washington state ski circuit, is accustomed to skyscraping snow accumulations deep enough to entomb an 18-meter (60-foot) building.

Not this year. Record-warm temperatures expose bare mountain ridges and disappoint ski bums and lift operators alike. Despite average levels of precipitation, rain is falling, not snow. Snowpack in much of the Olympics, the remote Washington peninsula mountain range, and in the Cascades, the spine from here to northern California, is less than 30 percent of normal.

It is a worrisome development, say hydrologists. Snowpack acts as a natural reservoir, a bank of moisture that melts slowly and keeps rivers flowing through the heat of the August dry season when spawning salmon, big wheat fields, and apple orchards are most in need of water…

Snowless conditions in the Cascades this winter are a cautionary signal for the entire American West, which is undergoing a “major hydrological shift” from snow to rain because of higher temperatures, according to a paper from University of Idaho researchers published last July. Their analysis projects that the area in which temperatures are cold enough for snow in the 11 western states will decrease by roughly 30 percent by mid-century…

Water managers need to balance a constellation of competing interests, from hydropower generation and flood protection, to fish health, forest fire risks, and water supply to cities and farms. The old playbook for operating dams and reservoirs must be revised and adapted to the new hydrology, managers say.

To do so, they argue, local, state, and federal governments must continue a recent trend of investing in stream gauges and equipment that monitors river flows, snow levels, and weather patterns. These tools are the guide ropes that managers use to allocate water and prepare for droughts and floods…

Better Management through Better Data

On-the-ground data is the lifeblood of hydrological forecasting. Computer models that predict conditions up to a year in advance need to be calibrated and refined by comparing the model’s output with historical measurements. The region’s river forecast centers use stream flow information from U.S. Geological Survey monitoring networks and snow measurements from National Resources Conservation Service sites.

Both Seattle Public Utilities and the Bureau of Reclamation use forecasts from the Northwest River Forecast Center, one of 13 regional forecasting divisions of the National Weather Service. Yet even as the complexity of river forecasting increases, and hydrological cycles are more disrupted than ever before, the nation’s resolve to pay for data collection and analysis is in transition.

Two years ago, at the height of Congress’s drive for fiscal austerity, some 618 stream gauges were shut down by the U.S. Geological Survey and its local partners for lack of money. Federal dollars used to support half the cost of operating a jointly-funded stream gauge. Now, the federal share is down to 30 percent. National Water and Climate Center officials told Circle of Blue last year that they deferred maintenance of many snow-monitoring sites after a 15 percent budget cut in 2011 and a 7 percent retraction during sequestration in 2013.

Recently, though, Congress increased funding for the National Streamflow Information Program, which goes toward stream gauges, by $US 6 million in 2014 and $US 1.2 million in 2015, a 26 percent increase over two years. It was enough money to provide full support for 1,000 of the 8,100 monitoring sites in the national streamflow program. The remaining sites are paid for by state and local agencies.

“Congress is starting to get it,” Pixie Hamilton told Circle of Blue. Hamilton is the national coordinator of the Cooperative Water Program, a branch of the U.S. Geological Survey that facilitates data collection partnerships. “Congressional folks are understanding the value of stream gauges in their districts. Word is getting out that stream gauges serve multiple needs, and there is keen interest around the states and Congress to keep up these gauges.”

Still, there is room for improvement. The Cooperative Water Program’s budget — $US 59 million — has remained roughly the same for 25 years, cutting the real value of its funding in half because of inflation. More of the 4,759 gauges deemed a national priority could be supported by a full appropriation from Congress, and the federal cost-share for collaborative projects could be increased.

“We are creatures of the water cycle,” Fleming said referring to his water management colleagues. “The more we can enhance our knowledge and bring it into the decision-making, the better position we’ll be in.”

More infrastructure coverage here.

From The Mountain Town News (Allen Best) (Click through for the graphics):

Across much of the West last week it was a wonderful week, as good as they get for March or even April. Except, of course, that it was early February.

In Fraser, the warmth was unsettling to Andy Miller. To have streets bare of snow was one thing. But out on the cross-country ski trails, he found the snow conditions unlike anything he could remember seeing in his almost 40 years of residency. Off trail, the snow was sugary, without a base. But more disturbing was the wetness of the ski trails themselves.

“We used to get spoiled. We put on green wax and, on warm days, a dab of blue. Waxing skis was never much of challenge,” says Miller, a town trustee in Fraser.

But on the ski trails, Miller has been putting purple, a softer wax, on his skis and this week thought he actually needed klister, the softest of waxes ordinarily reserved for skiing on hot spring days.

It’s something I can’t ever remember happening before,” says Miller.

Memory loss? Not at all. Records collated by the Colorado Climate Center show the entire state in the grip of a mid-winter heat wave from Jan. 27 to Feb. 29.

“The northwest portion of the state was 15 degrees above average, and other parts of the state were 12 degrees above average,” said Wendy Ryan, assistant state climatologist.

Steamboat Springs had the highest temperatures for that period in 105 years of record-keeping. Snowfall has been reasonable, but the snowpack has shrunken with the warm temperatures. Instead of a three-wire winter, as ranchers called a year of deep snow, it’s a one-wire winter.

In Summit County, it was the warmest mid-winter period ever in the 54 years of record-keeping at Dillon. In Crested Butte, it was the 5th warmest out of 100 years. And at Grand Junction, it was fourth warmest after 116 years of measurements.

After a dry January, attention turned to reservoir levels. Many are near capacity, a legacy of the big winter of 2013-2014. That’s a little less the case in southwest Colorado.

Lawns on south-facing houses in Telluride were bare last week. How often does that happen in Telluride in early February? “About once or twice a decade,” said Art Goodtimes, a resident since 1981.

West of Durango, the unpaved parking lot at the tiny Hesperus ski area looked like it was made to order for a Tough Mudder race: spatter-the-windshield muddy.

At Beaver Creek, temperatures that hit 40 degrees seemed to favor ski racers in the World Alpine Ski Races who went first, before the snow turned slushy and skis got grabby.

In Crested Butte, the lean snow is causing organizations of the annual Ally Loop ski race to alter starts and finishes.

In the Cascade Range, dump trucks have been called upon in years past to haul up to 55 loads of snow from Mount Bachelor to a ski and snowboard event held each mid-February in Bend, Ore. This year, snow is too scarce and temperatures so balmy that a motocross stunt team was scheduled to replace the snow sports, reports the Bend Bulletin.

In California, it was worse. The state water agency there said that January will likely go down as the driest month in California’s recorded history. Along the shores of Lake Tahoe, “people are raking, picking up pine cones and wondering if winter is only for those who live on the East Coast,” reported the Lake Tahoe News in early February. The website described the situation as “horrible.”

In Alberta, it was dry enough for prescribed burns in the Banff-Canmore area. In Jasper, the Fitzhugh talked about melting snow and rain showers. But examining weather records from the past 30 years, the newspaper blamed faulty memories, not errant weather.

“Despite our memories of frigid Januaries, full of long johns, woolies and frozen eyelashes, this January’s weather … is nothing new or unusual.”

But in Fraser, weather during the last few weeks has been distinctly different from what Miller remembers or the icy climate in which the town 70 miles northwest of Denver takes perverse pride. The town got the title in the 1950 and 1960s when local weather tracker Edna Tucker reliably got up every few hours to note the temperature. Morning radio shows—this was before TV—often had Fraser as coldest in the nation, with minus 30 and minus 40 not all that uncommon in January and February.

This winter, says Miller, it got to 20 below one night. He also remembers that in decades past, the temperature might warm to almost freezing at night – a sure signal of more snow, followed by the icebox once again.

Now, even after a storm, it’s staying well above zero. This icebox clearly is busted.

Rain to replace snow in the Sierra Nevada

LAKE TAHOE, Calif. – Those big dumps of snow that the Sierra Nevada is famous for? In the future, as the air warms, many of them will be replaced by big drenchings.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that 2014 was the 38th straight year with global annual temperatures above the long-term average.

In California, temperatures last year averaged 61.5 degrees Fahrenheit in California, or 4.1 degrees hotter than the 20th century average, reports the San Jose Mercury News, citing a new report issued last week by federal scientists.

Three other Western states—Alaska, Arizona and Nevada—also experienced their hottest years since 1895, when modern instrumentation became widespread. And Anchorage, Alaska, didn’t have a single day in 2014 in which the temperature dropped below zero, the first time in 101 years of record keeping.

A report by the Aspen Global Change Institute, a non-profit that caters primarily to visiting physicists, finds that the temperature in Aspen has increased during all seasons since 1940. However, precipitation, including snowfall, has increased.

Climate scientists say that it’s only going to get warmer.

Mike Dettinger, with the U.S. Geological Society, was in Lake Tahoe recently, and he echoed the forecast that the average snowpack for the Sierra Nevada in 2050 is expected to be half of what it is now.

“With more rain, less snow, and larger storms, it all comes together that the flood risk goes up in the Sierra,” Dettinger said, according to an account in Lake Tahoe News.

While peak runoff today is in May, rising temperatures will cause peak runoff to eventually be in April, said Arlan Nickel, with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

The Tahoe News also noted that Jim Hansen, one of the most vocal of scientists about the need to abate the burning of fossil fuels, also spoke at the conference.

“If you add C02 to the atmosphere, it’s like putting a blanket on the planet,” he explained.

The Lake Tahoe News reported that Hansen, former director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, argues that the only way to solve the problem is to levy an across-the-board fee on carbon, with revenues redistributed to households.

From InkStain (John Fleck):

The Colorado Basin’s two primary reservoirs lost, on paper, a million acre feet of water because of January’s dry snowpack, according to the latest numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. That’s the difference between what we expected to end the current water year with based on the January forecast, versus what the forecast looks like today, a month later. The Bureau’s monthly “24-month study” (it comes out once a month and projects conditions for the next two years, hence the name – pdf here) anticipates 1.162 million acre feet less water in Lake Powell than was expected just a month ago.

As currently forecast, that means Lake Powell is expected to drop 8 feet in elevation in 2015, while Lake Mead drops 7 feet.

The current snowpack for the Roaring Fork Watershed is 84% of normal (1981-2010 median). The snowpack in the Crystal River headwaters is…

— RoaringFkConservancy (@rfconservancy) February 12, 2015

US Drought Monitor February 20, 2015

West Drought Monitor February 10, 2015

Colorado Drought Monitor February 20, 2015

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

This U.S. Drought Monitor week saw improvements along the West Coast as a series of strong Pacific storms produced substantial rainfall accumulations in northern California and western portions of Oregon and Washington. The storms were the first significant precipitation event to affect California since mid-December. Since the moisture associated with these storms was subtropical in origin, the vast majority of the precipitation fell as rain while snowfall was restricted to the higher elevations. Overall, the storms had little impact on the well-below-normal snowpack conditions across the Sierra Nevada and Cascades ranges. Elsewhere in the West, mountain snowpack conditions are currently below normal across the Great Basin and Southwest as well as in parts of the Intermountain West and Central Rockies. Reservoir storage remains below normal in Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, and Utah in contrast to slightly above average conditions in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Washington, and Wyoming. Temperatures during the past week were well above normal in the western half of the conterminous U.S. with record high temperatures observed across the West and Central Plains. In contrast, the Northeast remained in a cold, snowy pattern with areas of Massachusetts, New York, New Hampshire, and Vermont receiving more than a foot of new snowfall…

The Plains

Across the northern and southern Plains states, temperatures were well above normal for the period. During the weekend, record high temperatures were observed in Kansas and South Dakota. In western Kansas, temperatures soared into the high 70s and low 80s, while portions of South Dakota reached the mid-60s. On this week’s map, changes included expansion of Abnormally Dry (D0) into western South Dakota in response to above normal temperatures and precipitation deficits during the past 30 days. In southeastern Kansas, some minor expansion in an area of Moderate Drought (D1) occurred in response to warmer temperatures and deterioration in local stock pond levels…

The West

During the past week, a series of strong Pacific storms came ashore late last week and continued throughout the weekend. This storm system – which tapped a conveyor-belt of warm, moist air from the subtropics – delivered widespread, heavy rainfall to northern California and the western portions of Oregon and Washington. In northern California, liquid precipitation accumulations ranged from three-to-fifteen inches, with the highest accumulations centered over the mountains of northwestern and north-central California as well as further south in the Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia ranges. In the northern half of the Sierra Nevada Range, rainfall accumulations ranged from three-to-ten inches, and the greatest accumulations occurred on the western slope between 2000 and 7000 feet in elevation. Snow levels were generally high (above 8000 feet) throughout the storms, and the cumulative effect of the snowfall received did not have a significant impact on the poor snowpack conditions across the range. According to the California Department of Water Resources, California’s snowpack (snow water equivalent) is currently at 27% of normal. On a more positive note, runoff associated with the event provided the addition of approximately 500,000 acre feet of inflow to the four major reservoirs (Folsom, Oroville, Shasta, and Trinity) in northern California. In response to the storm, a one-category improvement was made to areas of Extreme Drought (D3) in northwestern California as well as in the Santa Cruz Mountains (between San Francisco and Santa Cruz) and in the northern half of the Santa Lucia Range along the Central Coast. No changes were made on the map in the Sierra Nevada Range because snowpack conditions remain well below normal. In the Pacific Northwest, the same series of storms brought heavy rains (four-to-eight inches) to western portions of Oregon and Washington leading to one-category improvements in southwestern Oregon. According to the National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) SNOTEL network, the snowpack in the Cascades of Oregon and Washington remains well below normal for this time year with snow water equivalent (SWE) percentages ranging from 7 to 64% of normal with the lowest values being observed in Oregon. Overall, the past week was unseasonably warm (three to fifteen degrees above normal) across the entire West with record high temperatures observed in California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming…

Looking Ahead

The NWS HPC 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for light precipitation accumulations (generally less than one inch) across the eastern half of the country while portions of the central and southern Rockies are forecasted to receive between one and two inches of liquid accumulation. The 6–10 day outlooks call for a high probability of above-normal temperatures across the West while below-normal temperatures are forecasted for the eastern half of the country. A high probability of above-normal precipitation is forecasted across eastern portions of the West, Plains, South, Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic regions while below-normal precipitation is expected in the Pacific Northwest, northern California, Great Basin, and the Upper Midwest.

From TheDenverChannel.com (Matt Makens):

We’ve had snows, but nothing too big. Denver’s largest snow has been 5.4 inches on December 29, 2014.

Since moisture is critical to the state, and so many neighboring state’s rely on our snowpack, let’s check on how the season is doing…

For Denver and the Front Range, we’ve had a wet season — 0.62 inches ahead of normal. Further, this north-central section has been Colorado’s wettest on average. For Denver alone, the season’s snowfall is currently about 3 inches behind, but we’ve had rain to compensate so our total moisture is in good shape.

The south-central mountains on the other hand are the driest. Closing in on a quarter inch below average, this area needs quite a bit of snowfall to return to normal. Just looking at snowfall, that area is 59 percent of normal water within their snowpack. (see attached image of Colorado’s current water from snowpack status). The entire mountain range needs snow. Remember, our snowpack provides water for all of the southwestern US, and without it, they will be in water trouble too.

From the National Water and Climate Center via the Sierra Sun Times:

An unusually warm, dry January slowed snowpack accumulation in much of the West, according to data from the second 2015 forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Water and Climate Center (NWCC). California, Arizona and New Mexico, as well as parts of Colorado, Utah, Oregon and Nevada, remain in prolonged drought.

“January is usually a big month for snowpack accumulation,” NWCC hydrologist Cara McCarthy said. “But most of the West didn’t see significant gains this month. With isolated exceptions, only Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Montana received near average precipitation last month.”

“This is as low a snowpack as I’ve seen across the Sierra Nevada and Cascades for many locations at this time of year,” said NWCC Director Mike Strobel. Several Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites in those ranges are snowless, which is very unusual for this time of year.

Even the precipitation in the Southwest wasn’t enough to take these regions out of drought conditions. In Western states where snowmelt accounts for the majority of seasonal water supply, information about snowpack serves as an indicator of future water availability. Streamflow in the West consists largely of accumulated mountain snow that melts and flows into streams as temperatures warm in spring and summer. NWCC scientists analyze the snowpack, air temperature, soil moisture and other measurements taken from remote sites to develop the water supply forecasts.

The Cascades of Oregon and Washington have received normal levels of precipitation this water year, but it’s mostly fallen as rain instead of snow. California’s Sierra Nevada has seen little rain or snow. The extreme drought in California may be further aggravated by reduced streamflow in other parts of the West.

“This month the inflow forecast for Lake Powell fell from 90 to 70 percent of normal,” said McCarthy. “Because southern California draws water from the Colorado River, this may impact their water supply. This is only the second forecast of the season, and there’s still time for conditions to change. We’ll keep watching conditions and updating our forecasts as the year continues.”

The NWCC, part of USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, monitors conditions year-round and will continue to issue monthly forecasts until June. The water supply forecast is part of several USDA efforts to improve public awareness and mitigate the impacts of climate change, including drought and other extreme weather events. Through the creation of the National Drought Resilience Partnership, launched as part of the President’s Climate Action Plan, federal agencies are working closely with states, tribes and local governments to develop a coordinated response to drought.

Since 1939, USDA has conducted snow surveys and issued regular water supply forecasts. Other resources on drought include the U.S. Drought MonitorThis is an external link or third-party site outside of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) website.. For information on USDA’s drought efforts, visit USDA Disaster and Drought Information. And to learn more about how NRCS is helping private landowners deal with drought, visit the NRCS’ drought resources.

From the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment:

Nine Colorado community drinking water and wastewater systems will receive a total of $4.6 million in grants to assist with projects helping them recover from the September 2013 flooding. This funding is provided under HB14-1002.

These grants provide funding for planning, design, construction, improvement, renovation or reconstruction of wastewater treatment works and public drinking water systems that were affected, damaged or destroyed as a result of the floods. Grants were issued in counties where Gov. John Hickenlooper declared a disaster emergency.

Statewide snowpack map February 10. 2015

Arkansas River Basin High/Low graph February 10, 2015 via the NRCS

Upper Colorado River Basin High/Low graph February 10, 2015 via the NRCS

Gunnison River Basin High/Low graph February 10, 2015 via the NRCS

Laramie and North Platte Basin High/Low graph February 10, 2015 via the NRCS

Upper Rio Grande River Basin High/Low graph February 10, 2015 via the NRCS

San Miguel, Dolores, Animas, and San Juan Basin High/Low graph February 10, 2015 via the NRCS

South Platte River Basin High/Low graph February 10, 2015 via the NRCS

Yampa and White Basin High/Low graph February 10, 2015 via the NRCS

From 9News.com (Anastasiya Bolton):

Justin Whitesell of the Wildland Fire Management Section at the Division of Fire Prevention and Control is also watching the conditions.

“‘We’re average’ still means that we have potential for wild land fires, that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods,” Whitesell said. “You can still have a High Park Fire even though it’s showing average. You’re going to see the average number of fires.”

Firefighters and meteorologists try to predict how bad the season will be.

“It’s a crap shoot, it really is,” Whitesell said. “We all gear up almost the same way every year.”

From the Vail Daily (Scott N. Miller):

While snowfall is being measured in feet in the northeastern U.S., particularly New England — Boston has broken a 30-day snowfall record — the western part of the country has been clear and dry. In fact, the last sustained snowfall in the valley dates back weeks now, probably into the last days of 2014.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM

The culprit has been a lingering high pressure system in the western U.S. that has shuffled Pacific storm systems into a persistent low-pressure system in the eastern part of the country. The result has been great gobs of snow there, with just a few random snowstorms in this part of the country.

The question, then, is when those patterns will change, bringing relief to the Northeast and the relief of fresh powder to the Mountain West?

‘EVENTUALLY’

The answer, at this point, is a somewhat vague, “eventually.”

Ellen Heffernan, a forecaster at the National Weather Service’s Grand Junction office, said next week could bring a slight disturbance in those persistent patterns. The predicted snow, though, could track mostly into the southern part of the state.

But if you think this part of the state could use some snow, Southern Colorado is really hurting. The U.S. Drought Monitor website shows the southeastern part of the state is already in a “severe” drought, with other areas rated as being in a “moderate” drought.

Most of Western Colorado is rated as “abnormally dry.”

WATER SUPPLY FOR SUMMER

That’s bad for powder-loving skiers, of course. It could also be bad news for summer water supplies, since virtually all of Colorado relies on mountain snowfall for agricultural and domestic water.

But Jim Pringle, another forecaster at the National Weather Service’s Grand Junction office, said current snowpack numbers are OK, despite several dry weeks. Still, he said, the warm weather is abnormal for the region.

According to a Feb. 5 release from the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service, the Colorado River basin, of which Eagle County is a part, still had 95 percent of its average snowpack despite a very dry January.

But snow is needed, and fairly soon, to maintain a good snow supply for the summer.

Diane Johnson of the Eagle River Water & Sanitation District said it’s important to look ahead into the spring, toward the dates when snowpack generally is at its peak for the snow season.

“Every day you don’t get precipitation, you’re affecting that peak,” Johnson said.

That’s why good numbers now can quickly turn dismal if the weather doesn’t cooperate.

The peak dates are also important because snowpack numbers tend to fall quickly once the warm days of spring arrive. Even a big snowfall in late April won’t have much of an impact because that snow tends to melt quickly.

LONGTERM OUTLOOK

Forecasters can’t predict specific storm patterns past 10 days or so. On the other hand, the long-term outlook is pretty positive. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center calls for near-normal temperatures and above-average precipitation through the end of March and into April.

Pringle acknowledged the difficulty of long-range forecasts for specific storms, but added the Climate Prediction Center’s more general forecasts are generally pretty reliable.

Don’t put away the boots and shovels or drain the gas tanks on the snow blowers just yet.

From Steamboat Today (Tom Ross):

In spite of sparse January snowfall and the early spring skiing weather that prevailed during the first week of February, the moisture stored in the snow on the West Summit of Rabbit Ears Pass is a healthy 98 percent of median for Feb. 9.

To the south, in the foothills of the Flat Tops at Crosho Lake, that number is 119 percent of the median for the date. Snowpack numbers at Rabbit Ears and Crosho Lake don’t jive with the overall Feb. 1 snowpack numbers released Feb. 5 for the combined Yampa/White River basins by the Natural Resources Conservation Service. And in other locations in Northwest Colorado, snowpack is much lower.

Colorado Snow Survey Supervisor Brian Domonkos said in a news release that the North Platte River Basin along with the combined Yampa/White River Basins saw snowpack decrease in January by margins of 23 and 26 percent of normal respectively.

“With nearly one-third of the winter remaining, Colorado is running short of time to catch up,” Domonkos said. “Statewide snowfall would need to amount to 124 percent of normal from now until mid-April to achieve normal snowpack peak levels.”[…]

Domonkos said that although summer outlooks for streamflow volumes for April through July vary significantly around the state, most are forecasted to be between 60 percent and 85 percent of average.

The forecast for the Yampa stood at 81 percent of average streamflow on Feb. 1. The Little Snake River drainage to the northwest of Routt County was forecasted to have only 71 percent of average flows. And the forecast for the White is 79 percent.

If there is a reason for optimism, it could be found in the current water storage in reservoirs around Colorado. Reservoirs in the Yampa/White River drainages are among the strongest in the state, averaging 112 percent after heavy rainfall in July, August and September, according to the Conservation Service.

The snowpack numbers around the Yampa and Elk River drainages are spotty.

On Buffalo Pass at the tower measuring site, snowpack was 79 percent of median on Monday. But even Buffalo Pass seems to be benefitting from the fact that the relative handful of snow storms that have passed over the northern Flat Tops and the Park Range have been high-moisture events.

At Rabbit Ears on Feb. 2, the snow depth was a modest 37 inches and contained 12.2 inches of moisture. Four days later on Feb. 6, 15 inches of additional snow depth had bumped the water content to 14.8 inches, or an additional 2.6 inches of snowpack.

It was a similar story on top of Buffalo Pass where the snowpack picked up an additional 4.3 inches of water thanks to 20 inches of new snow that boosted snow depth to 77 inches.

North of Steamboat, the Elk River and Lost Dog sites at 8,700 feet on the edge of the Mount Zirkel Wilderness area both stand at 83 percent of average.

Click on a thumbnail graphic below to view a gallery of snowpack data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Snowpack? It's low pack or no pack for much of Far West; grim indicator of spring streamflow http://t.co/d9GHBZdxfz pic.twitter.com/QfiuVvs1MB

— NIDIS Drought.gov (@DroughtGov) February 9, 2015

Statewide snowpack map February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Arkansas Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Upper Colorado River Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Gunnison River Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Laramie and North Platte Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Upper Rio Grande River Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

San Miguel, Dolores, Animas, and San Juan Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

South Platte River Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Yampa and White Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

US Drought Monitor February 3, 2015

US Drought Monitor February 4, 2014

US Drought Monitor February 5, 2013

US Drought Monitor February 7, 2012

US Drought Monitor February 1, 2011

Click on a thumbnail graphic for a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor.

From Aspen Public Radio (Marci Krivonen):

In the dry month of January, snowpack levels in nearly every river basin in Colorado declined. In the Roaring Fork Valley, not only did the amount of snow diminish but drought conditions returned.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday puts the Western Slope in the “abnormally dry” category, including the majority of Eagle and Pitkin Counties and all of Garfield County. “Abnormally dry” is the least severe of five categories.

The latest snowpack report shows the Roaring Fork Watershed sits at 90 percent of normal – less than last year at this time, but significantly more snow than two years ago. Sarah Johnson is with the Roaring Fork Conservancy.

“It’s important to remember that even though our snowpack numbers are behind right now, I think the high country is holding the snow that it’s received and I think the warm temperatures are mostly affecting our valley floor. The snow that we have received is sticking around, which is really important because that snow in the high country determines our streamflow later in the spring and summer.”

The snowpack typically peaks in April, leading to peak river flows in June. Early season melting could lead to diminished water supplies and increased wildfire risk. There’s still time to catch up. March normally brings the wettest snow of the year.

From The Aspen Times (Scott Condon):

Last year wasn’t the hottest on record for Aspen, according to daily maximum and minimum temperature data stretching back to 1940, but data shows a definitive long-term trend toward significant warming, according to Jaime Cundiff, forest program director for the Aspen Center for Environmental Studies.

The number of annual frost-free days has soared since the 1950s and the number of consecutive frost-free days also is trending higher, Cundiff said. Snowpack levels vary from year to year with no definitive trend, but evidence shows that the snowpack is melting out sooner in the spring, she said. And the number of winter days with temperatures at or below zero is falling, creating more mild winters.

All of those factors have consequences for the environment, Cundiff said. Frost-free days, for example, can affect the budburst of vegetation and the overall species composition of an area.

ACES is analyzing weather and snowpack data for Aspen, among other mounds of data, as part of its Forest Health Index — an ongoing project to monitor a wide range of interlocking environmental conditions that affect forest health.

As part of the study, ACES found that the number of frost-free days in Aspen increased from an average of 73 per year in the 1950s to 99 in the 1990s and 107 in the 2000s.

Aspen also is experiencing milder winters. In the 1940s, there was an average of 35 days per year at or below 0 degrees during the 1940s. That fell to an average of 15 days per year during the 2000s.

“Extreme low temperatures are understood to play an important role in forest ecology,” the Forest Health Index said. “For instance, hard freezes are believed to help control insect-related disturbances such as the Mountain Pine Beetle infestation. Changes in extreme cold also serve as a broader indicator of change to the region’s climate.”

The index also found, in general, that the Aspen-area snowpack starts melting a week earlier in the spring and reaches the half-way melt-out period about one week sooner in the summer than it did in earlier decades.

A second report, Climate Change and Aspen, prepared by the Aspen Global Change Institute for the city of Aspen, noted many of the same environmental trends.

“For Aspen, climate change will likely include longer summertime warm periods, earlier onset of spring snowmelt, more precipitation arriving as rain rather than snow, and longer dry periods with heavier precipitation events in between,” said the report, released in December. “These types of changes could exacerbate already risky wildfire conditions, place extra pressure on already stretched water providers and users, provide additional challenges to ski area operators and other winter and summer recreation providers, as well as result in other impacts to every sector important to the Aspen community.”

Cundiff said the Forest Health Index places more stock in extremes, such as number of days with high and low temperatures rather than average annual temperatures. Statistics for any given year aren’t really useful. It’s trends that the index is seeking.

Nevertheless, she analyzed maximum and minimum daily temperatures for Aspen since 1940 and found that the average annual temperature between 1940 and 2014 was 41.44 degrees. The average for 2014 alone was 42.71 degrees. However, 2014 didn’t stand out. Several other years were at or above that temperature, she said. So, climate change didn’t make 2014 the hottest on record for Aspen, but trends show global warming is stressing Aspen’s environment.

From InkStain (John Fleck):

Today’s high in Durango was 59F (15C), 18 degrees above the 1981-2010 average for Feb. 8. In the mountains to the east – the mountains that provide Albuquerque’s San Juan-Chama drinking water – the snow has already begun to melt.

The snowpack there is lousy to begin with – 62 percent of normal for this time of year at the sites measured with automated SNOTEL gauges. But the first week of February is ridiculously early for the Azotea Tunnel, which brings SJC water under the continental divide and drops it into the Rio Grande Basin, to begin flowing.

It’s not a lot of water right now, a peak of ~23 cubic feet per second this morning. But the normal for this time of year is zero, and the tunnel typically doesn’t break 20cfs until the second week in March. This is basically a month early…

The worry here is not early melt. We’ve had that pattern for a while, with more of the snowmelt coming in March-May, and less in June and July. The early melt water coming through the tunnel will end up in Heron Reservoir, part of usable supply for Albuquerque and the other SJC water users. The worry is that weather this warm, dry and early could start a round of early sublimation – snow evaporating into the dry air before it has a chance to melt.

Check snowpack, river levels with interactive map of Colo River Basin in UT CO AZ NM NV WY http://t.co/SbmVIFKhNL pic.twitter.com/ItO8MZNSKm

— NIDIS Drought.gov (@DroughtGov) January 6, 2015

In order for Colorado to have an average snowpack peak this year, it'll take 126% of normal snow to reach it. pic.twitter.com/0j3IGHvPrU

— Luke Runyon (@LukeRunyon) February 9, 2015

From TheDenverChannel.com (Marc Stewart):

“Water planners would rather have some big storms falling right now and packing that up so you don’t depend upon a storm coming in — in late March and April,” said Nelson.

7NEWS traveled to Lake Dillon in Summit County to check on water levels, and for the moment, the levels are above average.

Yet, Denver Water is always watching.

“You never know when the next dry period is going to come and even more important, you never know how long it’s going to last,” said Denver Water spokesperson Travis Thompson.

Sunny days in Colorado may bring smiles, but they also generate uncertainty.

“In a state like Colorado, water is gold,” said Nelson.

From Inkstain (John Fleck):

January was dry in the water-producing parts of the Colorado River Basin.

The official Feb. 1 forecast for the Colorado River above Lake Powell (the part of the Basin where all the water comes from) calls for just 80 percent of median April-July inflow. That’s a big drop from the Jan. 1 forecast, which called for inflow of normal (and by “normal” I mean at the median).

That’s about 1.2 million acre feet less inflow forecast.

Click on a thumbnail graphic below to view a gallery of snowpack data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Statewide snowpack map February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Arkansas Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Upper Colorado River Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Gunnison River Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Laramie and North Platte Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Upper Rio Grande River Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

San Miguel, Dolores, Animas, and San Juan Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

South Platte River Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS

Yampa and White Basin High/Low graph February 5, 2015 via the NRCS