Shuang-Ye Wu, University of Dayton

A powerful storm system that stalled over states from Texas to Ohio for several days in early April 2025 wreaked havoc across the region, with deadly tornadoes, mudslides and flooding as rivers rose. More than a foot of rain fell in several areas.

As a climate scientist who studies the water cycle, I often get questions about how extreme storms like these form and what climate change has to do with it. There’s a recipe for extreme storms, with two key ingredients.

Recipe for a storm

The essential conditions for storms to form with heavy downpours are moisture and atmospheric instability.

First, in order for a storm to develop, the air needs to contain enough moisture. That moisture comes from water evaporating off oceans, lakes and land, and from trees and other plants.

The amount of moisture the air can hold depends on its temperature. The higher the temperature, the more moisture air can hold, and the greater potential for heavy downpours. This is because at higher temperatures water molecules have more kinetic energy and therefore are more likely to exist in the vapor phase. The maximum amount of moisture possible in the air increases at about 7% per degree Celsius.

Warm air also supplies storm systems with more energy. When that vapor starts to condense into water or ice as it cools, it releases large amount of energy, known as latent heat. This additional energy fuels the storm system, leading to stronger winds and greater atmospheric instability.

That leads us to the second necessary condition for a storm: atmospheric instability.

Atmospheric instability has two components: rising air and wind shear, which is created as wind speed changes with height. The rising air, or updraft, is essential because air cools as it moves up, and as a result, water vapor condenses to form precipitation.

As the air cools at high altitudes, it starts to sink, forming a downdraft of cool and dry air on the edge of a storm system.

When there is little wind shear, the downdraft can suppress the updraft, and the storm system quickly dissipates as it exhausts the local moisture in the air. However, strong wind shear can tilt the storm system, so that the downdraft occurs at a different location, and the updraft of warm moist air can continue, supplying the storm with moisture and energy. This often leads to strong storm systems that can spawn tornadoes.

Extreme downpours hit the US

It is precisely a combination of these conditions that caused the prolonged, extensive precipitation that the Midwest and Southern states saw in early April.

The Midwest is prone to extreme storms, particularly during spring. Spring is a transition time when the cold and dry air mass from the Arctic, which dominates the region in winter, is gradually being pushed away by warm and moist air from the Gulf that dominates the region in summer.

This clash of air masses creates atmosphere instability at the boundary, where the warm and less dense air is pushed upward above the cold and denser air, creating precipitation.

A cold front forms when a cold air mass pushes away a warm air mass. A warm front forms when the warm air mass pushes to replace the cold air mass. A cold front usually moves faster than a warm front, but the speed is related to the temperature difference between the two air masses.

The warm conditions before the April storm system reduced the temperature difference between these cold and warm air masses, greatly reducing the speed of the frontal movement and allowing it to stall over states from Texas to Ohio.

The result was prolonged precipitation and repeated storms. The warm temperatures also led to high moisture content in the air masses, leading to more precipitation. In addition, strong wind shear led to a continuous supply of moisture into the storm systems, causing strong thunderstorms and dozens of tornadoes to form.

What global warming has to do with storms

As global temperatures rise, the warming air creates conditions that are more conducive to extreme precipitation.

The warmer air can mean more moisture, leading to wetter and stronger storms. And since most significant warming occurs near the surface, while the upper atmosphere is cooling, this can increase wind shear and the atmospheric instability that sets the stage for strong storms.

Polar regions are also warming two to three times as fast as the global average, reducing the temperature gradient between the poles and equator. That can weaken the global winds. Most of the weather systems in the continental U.S. are modulated by the polar jet stream, so a weaker jet stream can slow the movement of storms, creating conditions for prolonged precipitation events.

All of these create conditions that make extreme storms and flooding much more likely in the future.

Shuang-Ye Wu, Professor of Geology and Environmental Geosciences, University of Dayton

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Click the link to read the release on the Colorado State University website:

Bark beetles and other insects are spreading through Colorado’s forests, leaving dead and dying trees in their wake – a cycle that could fuel future wildfires, according to an annual Colorado State Forest Service report released March 26.  

Following a wet and cool year in 2023, the shift back to near-record temperatures and below-average precipitation in Colorado last year exacerbated the proliferation of forest pests and weakened trees’ defenses against them. 

“Trees in Colorado can’t catch a break as our climate becomes warmer and dryer,” said Matt McCombs, state forester and director of the Colorado State Forest Service. “This ongoing trend toward persistent drought and higher temperatures not only makes trees easier prey for insects but increases the risk of large and severe wildfires. 

“Couple that with more people living in areas prone to burn, and the state faces enormous challenges,” McCombs added. “The good news is we know Colorado is on the right path to address these challenges and foster forests and communities that are resilient to wildfire and forest pests.” 

The 2024 forest health assessment details which insects and diseases are the biggest threats to the state’s forests and where outbreaks are expanding. The report also describes the state forest service’s science-based management practices that are promoting wildfire-resilient forests and healthy watersheds. 

The CSFS updates the Colorado General Assembly and residents annually on the health of the state’s forests based on an annual aerial survey, field inspections and information from forest landowners. 

Read the 2024 Report on the Health of Colorado’s Forests and view a story map with additional data here. 

Adapted from a CSFS press release. 

Click the link to read the research article on the AGU website (M. S. Kukal, M. Hobbins):

Abstract

Global atmospheric evaporative demand has increased, impacting agricultural productivity and water use. Traditionally, trend assessments have been limited to total evaporative demand, overlooking shifts in daily extremes, which are meaningful for agrohydrological outcomes yet largely unknown. Here, using a fully physical metric of evaporative demand, that is, standardized short crop reference evapotranspiration, we introduce the concept of thirstwaves—prolonged periods of extremely high evaporative demand—and analyze their characteristics during 1981–2021 growing seasons for the conterminous US. Findings show that long-term mean spatial patterns demonstrated by thirstwave characteristics do not follow that of total or mean evaporative demand. Weighted for cropland area harvested, thirstwave intensity, duration, and frequency have increased by 0.06 mm d⁻¹ decade⁻¹, 0.10 days decade⁻¹, and 0.39 events decade⁻¹, respectively during 1981–2021. Statistically significant trends appear across 17%, 7%, and 23% of cropland area for intensity, frequency, and duration. Not only have thirstwaves increased in severity, but the likelihood of no thirstwaves occurring during the growing season has significantly decreased. Our work proposes a novel metric to describe periods of extremely elevated evaporative demand and presents a systematic analysis of such conditions historically for US croplands.

Key Points

• Regional hotspots of thirstwaves do not necessarily align with areas of high overall evaporative demand
• Intensity, duration, and frequency of thirstwaves have increased significantly (p < 0.05) over 17%, 7%, and 23% of US cropland area, respectively
• The likelihood of no thirstwaves occurring during the growing season has significantly decreased

Plain Language Summary

The atmosphere is getting more demanding for water around the world, and this affects water use and farming outcomes. Previously, studies mainly looked at the overall atmospheric demand for water, but little is known about changes in occurrence of very high atmospheric demand for water over consecutive days. In this study, we use introduce the idea of “thirstwaves,” which are long periods of very high atmospheric demand for water. We looked at these thirstwaves that have occurred during 1981–2021 in the US and analyzed them for how intense and how frequent they were and how many days they lasted. We found that the worst thirstwaves happened in places that do not see the highest demand. Over time, all aspects of these thirstwaves have gotten worse. It has also become much less likely that a growing season will pass without any thirstwaves. These findings suggest that in addition to monitoring overall atmospheric demand for water, it’s important to track, measure, and report thirstwaves to those managing agriculture and water resources.

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

.This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw widespread improvement in drought-related conditions across areas of the South, Southeast, and Midwest, where a series of strong storms delivered heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and severe flooding. The multi-day storm event saturated soils leading to inundation of rivers, and severe flooding in low-lying areas from Arkansas to Ohio. Storm totals from the multi-day event ranged from 4 to 18+ inches, with the highest accumulations observed across central Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, and western portions of both Tennessee and Kentucky. In addition to heavy rainfall, the storm system sparked dozens of tornadoes as well as strong gusty winds in other areas, causing widespread power outages. Elsewhere, improving conditions over the past 30 to 60 days, led to reduction in areas of drought in the Northeast, from New York to Maine, as well as in areas further south including New Jersey and Virginia. In the Midwest, this week’s rainfall event pushed rainfall totals well above normal levels for the past 30-day period, leading to improvements across the Midwest in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. In the Upper Midwest and portions of the Plains, drought-related conditions improved on the map across areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and South Dakota, where precipitation has been above normal for the past 30-90-day period and soil moisture monitoring products are showing normal to above-normal levels. In the West, above-normal springtime temperatures are causing a rapid melting of high-elevation snowpacks across the entire region. Looking at the current snowpack conditions out West, deep seasonal snowpack deficits remain across the ranges of southwestern Colorado, New Mexico, northern Arizona, and southwestern Utah. Elsewhere in the region, areas of the Great Basin and Intermountain West saw improvements on the map including parts of northeastern Nevada, Wyoming, and northwestern Colorado. In terms of reservoir storage in the West, California’s reservoirs continue to be at or above historical averages for the date (April 8), with the state’s two largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, at 116% and 120% of average, respectively. In the Southwest, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is reporting (April 6) Lake Powell at 33% full, Lake Mead at 34% full, and the total Colorado system at 41% full (compared to 42% full at the same time last year)…

High Plains

On this week’s map, improvements were made in the region, namely in northern Kansas, northern Nebraska, and South Dakota, where shorter-term precipitation (past 30-60 days) is normal to above normal. Additionally, these areas were showing improvements in other drought indicators including soil moisture, streamflow activity, and satellite-based vegetation health. In western North Dakota, areas of Extreme (D3), Severe (D2), and Moderate (D1) drought expanded on the map in response to a combination of factors, including numerous recent impact reports from the agricultural sector, below-normal precipitation (past 30 days), and low streamflow and soil moisture levels. For the week, generally dry conditions prevailed across western portions of the region, while eastern portions received modest accumulations of <1.5 inches (liquid). In terms of temperatures, below-normal average temperatures (ranging from 2 to 10+ degrees F) were logged across the entire region…

West

Out West, generally dry conditions prevailed over much of the region, including areas of California, the Great Basin, the Intermountain West, and the Desert Southwest (southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico). However, some mountain locations in the Pacific Northwest and the Rocky Mountains received light-to-moderate precipitation accumulations. On the map, areas of Extreme (D3) drought were introduced in southeastern Arizona, where precipitation deficits existed at both short- and longer-term time scales. Similarly, ongoing below-normal snowpack conditions (snow water equivalent at NRCS SNOTEL stations ranging from 6 to 55% of median) in the Nacimiento, San Juan, and Sangre de Cristo ranges of New Mexico, led to the introduction of areas of Extreme (D3) drought. Elsewhere, some improvements were made on the map in drought-affected areas of northeastern Nevada, northeastern Utah, northwestern Colorado, and Wyoming. Looking at the regional snowpack, the NRCS SNOTEL network is reporting (April 8) the following region-level (2-digit HUC) SWE levels: Pacific Northwest 102%, Missouri 97%, Upper Colorado 89%, Great Basin 104%, Lower Colorado 69%, and Rio Grande 46%…

South

On this week’s map, widespread improvements were made in response to very heavy rainfall accumulations observed across parts of the region, with the highest totals (ranging from 5 to 15+ inches) observed in northeastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, western Tennessee, and southern Mississippi. The multi-day storm event led to catastrophic flooding in parts of the region as well as tornadic activity, widespread power outages, and loss of life. However, the deluge of rains also led to significant improvements in drought-related conditions, with multiple category improvements made on the map. For the week, average temperatures were above normal in eastern areas, with anomalies ranging from 3 to 12 degrees F. Conversely, the western extent of the region, including much of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, experienced temperatures ranging from 3 to 12 degrees F below normal. Looking at Texas reservoir conditions, statewide reservoirs are reported to be 75.7% full, with many reservoirs in the eastern part of the state in good condition (over 90% full), while numerous reservoirs in the western portion of the state continue to experience below-normal levels, according to Water Data for Texas (April 9). In terms of streamflow activity (April 9), the U.S. Geological Survey is reporting well above normals streamflows (>90th percentile) across northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, Mississippi, and western Tennessee, while areas of central and southern Texas are experiencing below normal levels (1st to 24th percentile range)…

Looking Ahead

The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for relatively dry conditions across the conterminous U.S., except for light-to-moderate accumulations across areas of the Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, Lower Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10-day Outlook calls for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across the Western U.S., Plains, and areas of the South, while below-normal temperatures are expected across eastern portions of the Midwest and portions of the Northeast. Elsewhere, near-normal temperatures are favored. In terms of precipitation, there is a low-to-moderate probability of above-normal precipitation across New Mexico, Texas, and Oklahoma as well as areas of the Upper Midwest. Elsewhere, below-normal precipitation is expected across most of the West, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic.

Click the link to read the briefing on the Western Resource Advocates website:

With the snow accumulation portion of the 2025 water year drawing to a close, snowpack in much of the region was near average, except for southern Colorado, southern Utah and northeastern Wyoming where snowpack ranged from 50-80% of average. Above average precipitation in northern Utah and much of Wyoming added to snowpack during March and caused the removal of drought conditions from the Wasatch Front and northern and central Wyoming. A late-March rain/snow event produced record precipitation along the northern Front Range and Eastern Plains and alleviated drought. Seasonal streamflow volume forecasts vary from much below average in southern Utah and southwestern Colorado to near average forecasts for more northerly river basins such as the Colorado headwaters, Yampa, North Platte and Bighorn River Basins. The streamflow volume for Lake Powell’s inflow is forecasted at 67% of average.

March precipitation was near-to-above average in Wyoming and much of Utah. Below average March precipitation fell across much of Colorado and southeastern Utah. In northern Utah, March precipitation was 130-200% of average and large areas of Wyoming received 130-300% of average March precipitation. Parts of southern Colorado and southeastern Utah received less than 50% of average March precipitation, further worsening drought conditions. Six long-term weather monitoring sites in eastern Colorado received record-low March precipitation.

March temperatures were mostly above average. In Utah and southwestern Colorado, March temperatures were within two degrees of average. March temperatures in other parts of Colorado and Wyoming were two to six degrees above average.

April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) was near average for much of Wyoming, northern Colorado and northern Utah, ranging from 90% in the Lower Green to 110% in the Upper Snake River Basins. In southern Colorado and southern Utah, April 1 SWE was below to much below average, ranging from 44% in the Virgin to 80% in the Gunnison River Basins. On a statewide basis, SWE was near average in Utah (92%) and Wyoming (100%), but below average in Colorado (84%). In southwestern Utah, eight Snotel sites at elevations ranging from 6,000-8,900 feet have completely melted, which is 14 to 34 days earlier than average.

Spatial estimates of SWE on March 31, provided by INSTAAR at the University of Colorado, show lower estimates of SWE relative to average for all river basins except Wyoming’s Bighorn, Snake and Yellowstone Basins. The lower percent average SWE from spatial SWE estimates compared to Snotel-derived SWE is largely due to the inclusion of low elevation snowpack in the spatial SWE estimates which is not well-represented in the Snotel network. Snowpack at elevations below Snotel sites was generally low in 2025 due to higher snow levels and periods of warm sunny weather in March. The entire Spatial SWE report for 3/31/25 can be downloaded here.

April 1 seasonal (April-July) streamflow volume forecasts were near-to-below average across the region. In general, seasonal streamflow volume forecasts were near average in the North and below or much below average in the South. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, near average streamflow volumes are forecasted for the Colorado Headwaters (90%) and the Yampa (94%); below average streamflow volumes for the Upper Green (80%), Lower Green (80%) and Gunnison (85%); and much below average streamflow volume for the Dolores (55%) and San Juan (48%). Seasonal streamflow is forecasted at 67% of average for Lake Powell. In the Missouri River Basin, near average seasonal streamflow volumes are forecasted for the Bighorn and North Platte River Basins, and below average streamflow is forecasted for the Arkansas, Cheyenne, Powder, South Platte and Tongue River Basins. Note: both NRCS and the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) provide seasonal streamflow forecasts for the Upper Colorado River Basin and these forecasts occasionally differ due to differences in streamflow forecasting models. For example, the April 1, 2025 seasonal streamflow forecast for the Upper Green River at Flaming Gorge is 80% from the CBRFC and 94% from the NRCS.

On April 1, drought conditions covered 54% of the region, a 2% regional decline from February 25. Significant expansion of drought in Colorado during March was offset by the removal of drought conditions along the Wasatch Front in northern Utah and in northern and central Wyoming. Extreme drought conditions were removed from the Snake and Powder River Basins and the area of severe drought contracted during March. Drought conditions expanded and became more severe in western Colorado and drought conditions emerged in both central and southeastern Colorado during March.

Pacific Ocean temperatures were near average in March, ENSO is currently in a neutral phase, and there is a greater than 50% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions continuing through early fall. The NOAA monthly outlook for April suggests an increased probability of below average precipitation and above average temperatures across most of Colorado and Utah. The NOAA Seasonal Precipitation Outlook (April-June) indicates an increased probability of below average precipitation for the entire region, especially in Utah and western Colorado. There is also an increased probability of above average temperatures for Colorado, Utah and southwestern Wyoming during April-June.

Significant weather event: Record Front Range precipitation. After a dry January-March, record precipitation fell across the northern Front Range and Eastern Plains of Colorado on March 29-30. Rain fell for most of the event at lower elevations with wet snow accumulating in the foothills. Daily precipitation records were set on March 29 in Boulder (1.41”), Brighton (0.46”), Eastonville (0.70”), Greeley (0.60”), Longmont (0.66”) and Winter Park (0.76”) and two-day precipitation records were set on March 29-30 at 11 locations with more than 50 years of data. Notably, more rain fell on March 29-30 than in all of 2025 at 18 locations. The late March rain and snow event caused a one-category improvement in drought conditions, including the removal of all drought and abnormally dry conditions across a large swath of northeastern Colorado. An area of extreme drought was also removed from Larimer County.

Click the link to read the release on the NRCS website:

April 8, 2025

As Colorado approaches the seasonal peak of its snowpack, data as of April 1 show statewide snow water equivalent at 85 percent of median, down from 112 percent this time last year. March delivered 105 percent of median precipitation across the state, improving snowpack totals in many basins.

As of April 1st Colorado’s snow water equivalent (SWE) is at 85 percent of median, compared to 112 percent on this date last year. Statewide monthly precipitation for March reached 105 percent, while water year to date (WYTD) is at 92 percent of median. March brought increased storm activity, bolstering precipitation and snowpack values, especially across western, northern and central basins. The southern half of the state remains below average, reflecting the extended period of below average precipitation from December through February. However, 30-day precipitation totals through March show improvements. The Gunnison, Arkansas, Upper Rio Grande (URG) and combined San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan (SMDASJ) basins each record above to near average precipitation for the month, with values reaching 108, 77, 86 and 117 percent, respectively. Even with the recent increase in March precipitation, snowpack remains below median in the Gunnison, Arkansas, Upper Rio Grande and combined SMDASJ basins which are at 81, 74, 56 and 63 percent of median, respectively. 

Throughout the final week of March, all basins in the state experienced snowmelt, most notably in the southern half of the state where accelerated melt occurred at many sites. In the Upper Rio Grande basin snowmelt is particularly pronounced with several sites showing both lower than average peak SWE and faster than normal melt rates. Statewide median peak SWE typically occurs April 8^th, although actual timing varies basin to basin. The Headwaters of the Rio Grande sub-basin are days away from peak with the median date around April 11^th. Following a storm over the first weekend of April the Headwaters of the Rio Grande sub-basin records a modest boost in SWE, now holding 73 percent of median and ranking in the 17^th percentile.

Colorado’s northern river basins all have near to above median snowpack ranging from 93 to 103 percent. As of April 1^st, the South Platte is at 98 percent of median snowpack, the Laramie and North Platte at 103 percent, Colorado Headwaters is at 96 percent and the Yampa-White-Little Snake at 93 percent. Each of these basins have reached approximately 84 to 91 percent of median peak SWE, with room to grow before their median peak dates in mid to late April. 

While April has the potential to deliver meaningful snowpack accumulation, it’s worth noting that many sites in southern basins have likely already passed their seasonal peak. Median peak SWE dates in these basins range from April 2^nd to April 8^th. To date, the Arkansas, URG and SMDASJ reached their highest SWE around March 23-24. Current SWE as a percent of median ranges from 47 to 71 percent in southern basins. These values reflect a notably below average snowpack and while not all sites are record breaking, there are some sites among the lowest on record or near record at several locations. Of the 198 SNOTEL and snow course sites in Colorado, 40 sites (20% percent) currently fall withing the lowest 15^th percentile for their respective period of records. “These values reflect how far off some sites are from their typical accumulation and highlight the larger picture of below normal snowpack in the southern basins,” says Nagam Gill, NRCS hydrologist. SNOTEL records in this group span 9 to 47 years, while manual snow course surveys extend from 42 to 88 years of data. 

Statewide reservoir storage is at 92 percent of median and 58 percent of total capacity. While this is slightly below last year’s 100 percent of median at this time, most major reservoir across the state observe near 30 year medians. Dillon Reservoir is at 97 percent of median and 80 percent capacity and Lake Granby holds 101 percent of median at 58 percent capacity. Pueblo Reservoir is at 109 percent of median and 71 percent of capacity. The streamflow forecast at Pueblo Reservoir Inflow project 370,000 acre-feet for the April – September period or 94 percent of median and has stayed consistent from last months projections. Blue Mesa is at 96 percent of median and 60 percent of capacity. Notably below average is McPhee Reservoir at 76 percent of median and 56 percent of capacity. 

April 1 volumetric streamflow forecasts reflect snowpack and precipitation conditions across Colorado at 86 percent of median. Forecasts are near to above average for northern basins and below to much below average for the southern half of the state. Statewide, 40 percent of forecast points are at 75 or less of median and 27 percent of those points fall in the lower 25^th percentile. Navajo Reservoir Inflow forecasts a 325 kaf median departure from the period of record (POR) median. McPhee Reservoir Inflow is at 64 percent of median with a 91 kaf departure. Forecast volumes in the Colorado Headwaters, Yampa-White-Little Snake, Laramie and North Platte, and South Platte are at 96, 95, 102 and 93 percent of median seasonal streamflow volumes, respectively. In contrast, the Gunnison, Arkansas, URG and combined SMDASJ basins are forecast at 86, 87, 63 and 60 percent of median, respectively. These outlooks reflect the considerable differences in peak SWE and melt out trends already underway in the southern portion of the state. Compared to March 1 outlooks, forecast volumes decline by roughly 12 to 15 percentage points in the URG and SMDASJ basins, driven by accelerated snowmelt during late March. The variability of forecasted volumes means that relying solely on the 50% exceedance forecast may not fully capture the uncertainty in future weather. A critical consideration when reviewing these forecasts is the full suite of exceedance probabilities.

Click the link to read the outlook on the NRCS website. Here’s an excerpt:

Click the link to read the article on the Denver7.com website (Colette Bordelon). Here’s an excerpt:

April 7, 2025

“The problem is becoming tougher to deal with and more acute,” one Western water lawyer told Denver7.

…this time of year has water experts wondering what the snowpack levels will mean for runoff into the Colorado River, a critical resource.

“Right now is exactly when we start being concerned about what our runoff is going to look like,” said James Eklund, who is a Western water lawyer. “It’s starting to get warmer, and so all that snow that everybody skied on and snowboarded on over the winter is going to start melting off and go into our rivers and our reservoirs.”

“Right now, we’re showing about 67% of average runoff, and that’s really remarkable, because our snowpack is right around 100% of average,” Eklund explained. “Even though we’ve got pretty good precipitation, and we did have really good skiing conditions in many parts of the state over much of the ski season, it’s not translating to as much runoff as we had hoped.”

Sixty-seven percent of average runoff is “not where you want to be,” according to Eklund, who considers this to be a “below average year.”

Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Kristy Burnett):

On April 1, Gov. Jared Polis and the Colorado State Forest Service (CSFS) announced $7.04 million in wildfire mitigation grants. 

In total, the CSFS will award the $7.04 million to 37 projects in 26 counties across Colorado.

Included in the funding is Wildfire Adapted Partnership for community fuels reduction in Southwest Colorado 

Colorado’s diverse forests cover more than 24 million acres, and they provide crucial benefits, including clean air and water, habitat for wildlife, outdoor recreation and more. 

All of these values that Colorado’s forests provide are at risk of wildfire. Since 2018, the state of Colorado has provided funding to assist communities and groups across Colorado to reduce their wildfire risk and promote forest health through the Forest Restoration and Wildfire Risk Mitigation (FRWRM) grant program, administered by the CSFS. 

“Preventing wildfires is an all-hands-on-deck effort in Colorado. Wildfires continue to be a serious threat to Colorado communities, and investing in fire mitigation initiatives and helping communities create defensible spaces helps all Coloradans and firefighters to be better prepared in the event of a fire emergency. This $7.04 million in wildfire grants will provide the essential resources that are crucial to continue building resilience to wildfires across Colorado,” Polis said. 

The FRWRM grant program has a matching requirement, either through cash or in-kind contributions. 

Award recipients in areas with fewer economic resources, as defined by the social vulnerability index layer within the Colorado Forest Atlas, must match 25 percent of the project total, and all other award recipients must match 50 percent of the total project cost, amounting to nearly $9 million in match. 

With these matching funds included, communities and groups across Colorado will invest about $16 million in efforts dedicated to forest restoration and wildfire mitigation. The projects awarded in this funding cycle will also build capacity for wildfire mitigation projects through staffing and equipment purchases. 

The funding for this round of FRWRM awards will help Coloradans complete the following activities:

• Build community capacity to address wildfire.
• Reduce the risk of wildfire to people, property and infrastructure.
• Promote forest health and restoration.
• Encourage the use of wood from forest health and fuels reduction projects.

“Addressing forest health and wildfire mitigation at the local level is the most efficient and effective way to make Colorado’s forests more resilient,” said Matt McCombs, state forester and director of the CSFS. “This funding is crucial each year to protect our homes, critical infrastructure and our way of life.”

For the 2024-2025 round of FRWRM grants, the CSFS received 95 eligible applications requesting nearly $25 million. Since $7.04 million was available for this round of grants, 58 projects totaling nearly $15.4 million could not be funded. In addition, of the 37 awarded projects, the CSFS could only partially fund six of them, leaving about $2.5 million of their original requests unfunded.

“The Colorado State Forest Services FRWRM grant is a critical element in our overall state efforts to improve forest health and reduce the risk of wildfires on our landscapes, and creating fire-adapted communities,” said Dan Gibbs, executive director of the Colorado Department of Natural Resources. “Colorado is one lightning strike and one unattended campfire away from our next wildfire. With about half of all Coloradans living in the wildland-urban interface, these grants provide important capacity for locally and regionally driven wildfire prevention efforts.”

The CSFS will announce the next round of funding assistance through the FRWRM grant program in the fall. For information about the program, visit the CSFS website. 

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

This U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) week saw improvement in drought-related conditions across areas of the Intermountain West, High Plains, South, Upper Midwest, and Southeast. Meanwhile, conditions degraded on the map in the Southwest, Lower Midwest, and the Mid-Atlantic. Out West, a series of Pacific storms delivered significant rainfall to the lower elevation coastal areas and heavy mountain snow in the Klamath Mountains, Cascades, and Sierra Nevada ranges, as well as to the higher elevations of the Great Basin and the central and northern Rocky Mountains. In the coast ranges of Northern California, 7-day rainfall totals exceeded 10+ inches in some areas, according to preliminary data from the National Weather Service (NWS) California-Nevada River Forecast Center. The series of storms provided a late-season boost to mountain snowpack levels including in California, where the statewide snowpack (April 1) was 96% of normal, according to the California Department of Water Resources. In the Southwest, drought expanded and intensified across areas of southeastern and northeastern Arizona, northeastern New Mexico, and southwestern Colorado, where snowpack levels are below normal in the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo ranges. In the South, southern Texas received record-breaking rainfall (12+ inches) leading to widespread improvements in drought-related conditions. In the Upper Midwest, an ice storm impacted northeastern Wisconsin and northern Michigan, leading to widespread power outages. Precipitation from the storm event led to improvements on the map in those areas. In parts of the Northeast, some improvements occurred in response to a combination of factors, including normal to above-normal precipitation (past 30-60 days), increased streamflows, and some recovery in groundwater levels. In the Southeast, short-term dryness expanded areas of drought from North Carolina to Georgia, while Florida saw some minor improvement in drought conditions in response to recent rainfall events.

In terms of reservoir storage in areas of the West, California’s reservoirs continue to be at or above historical averages for the date (April 1), with the state’s two largest reservoirs, Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville, at 113% and 121% of average, respectively. In the Southwest, as of March 31, Lake Powell is 32% full (55% of typical storage level), Lake Mead is 34% full (54% of average), and the total Lower Colorado system is 41% full (compared to 42% full at the same time last year), according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. In Arizona, the Salt River Project is reporting the Salt River system reservoirs 72% full, the Verde River system 53% full, and the total reservoir system 70% full (compared to 89% full one year ago). In New Mexico, the state’s largest reservoir along the Rio Grande is currently 14% full (30% of average). In the Pacific Northwest, Washington’s Franklin D. Roosevelt Lake is 81% full (148% of average for the date), Idaho’s American Falls Reservoir on the Snake River is 96% full (108% of average), and Hungry Horse Reservoir in northwestern Montana is 72% full (108% of average)…

High Plains

On this week’s map, only minor changes were made in the region, namely in western Nebraska and areas of Kansas. In the Sand Hills of Nebraska, precipitation during the past 7-day period (1 to 2 inches) led to 1-category improvements in areas of Severe (D2) and Extreme (D3) drought. In Kansas, short-term dry conditions (past 30-60 days) led to the expansion of isolated areas of drought in the southwestern and northeastern parts of the state. Generally dry conditions prevailed across much of the region for the week, with some small accumulations (0.5 to 1 inch liquid) observed in southern and eastern South Dakota, northern Nebraska, and southeastern Kansas. In terms of temperatures, near-normal average temperatures were logged across the region…

West

Out West, a series of Pacific storms delivered heavy rain to the lower elevations and snow to the higher elevations of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. In the Lake Tahoe area, 7-day snowfall totals ranged from 1 to 2+ feet, while areas of the Klamath Mountains of northwestern California received totals up to 3 feet. Other mountain regions, including the Cascades of Oregon, the Wasatch and Uintas of Utah, and the northern Rockies, received accumulations ranging from 6 to 24 inches. Looking at the regional snowpack, the NRCS SNOTEL network is reporting (April 1) the following region-level (2-digit HUC) SWE levels: Pacific Northwest 104%, Missouri 98%, Upper Colorado 89%, Great Basin 103%, Lower Colorado 49%, and Rio Grande 49%. In the Desert Southwest, areas of Extreme Drought (D3) expanded in northeastern and southeastern Arizona in response to very low streamflows and below-normal precipitation since the beginning of the Water Year (Oct 1). In areas of southwestern and south-central Colorado, degradations were made on the map where snowpack conditions at numerous NRCS SNOTEL stations are reporting well below-normal SWE levels. Likewise, poor snowpack conditions have been observed in the mountain ranges of southern Utah, northern Arizona, and northern New Mexico…

South

Generally dry conditions prevailed across areas of the region including Oklahoma, western Texas, Arkansas, and southern Mississippi. Conversely, the Gulf Coast regions of Texas and Louisiana received very heavy rainfall in some areas (5 to 15 inches based on radar estimates), with the highest accumulations observed along the southern Gulf Coast region of Texas and the South Texas Plains. The deluge of rainfall led to life-threatening flooding and loss of lives. The rains also led to significant improvements in drought-related conditions, with multiple category improvements made on the map. In contrast, short-term dry conditions continued in Arkansas, although heavy rains are expected to impact the state over the next week. For the week, average temperatures were well above normal, with anomalies ranging from 4 to 10+ degrees F. Looking at reservoir conditions in Texas, statewide reservoirs are reported to be 75.3% full, with many reservoirs in the eastern part of the state in good condition, while numerous reservoirs in the western portion of the state continue to experience below-normal levels, according to Water for Texas (April 2)…

Looking Ahead

The NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) calls for moderate-to-heavy precipitation accumulations ranging from 3 to 10+ inches (liquid) across areas of the South, Lower Midwest, and the Pacific Northwest (Washington), with the heaviest accumulations expected in the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio River Valley regions. Light-to-moderate accumulations are expected in areas of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Upper Midwest, and central and southern Plains. In the central and southern Rocky Mountains, mountain snowfall is expected. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6-10-day Outlook calls for a moderate-to-high probability of above-normal temperatures across the Western U.S. and Plains, while below-normal temperatures are expected across the Midwest and Eastern Tier. In terms of precipitation, there is a moderate-to-high probability of below-normal precipitation across most of the West, Plains, South, and the Midwest. Elsewhere, above-normal precipitation is expected across the Eastern Seaboard and in the Pacific Northwest (Washington).

Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Bob Berwyn):

March 27, 2025

Researchers comparing satellite measurements of the planet’s water with the wobble in its rotation identified a steady loss of global soil moisture.

Earth has lost enough soil moisture in the last 40 years to change the planet’s spin and shift the location of the North Pole, according to a new study published today in Science that tracks how human activities have disrupted the global water cycle. The persistent loss of water from land to oceans has dried out huge portions of every continent and may be irreversible, scientists describing the new research said this week.

“Large regions in East and Central Asia, Central Africa, and North and South America show pronounced depletion,” between 2003 and 2007, the authors wrote. When they extended the timeframe to 2021, the depletion of soil moisture grew large enough to cover those areas and also included Europe and the Eastern U.S.

“This study provides robust evidence of an irreversible shift in terrestrial water sources under the present changes in climate,” said Luis Samaniego, a hydrology researcher at the UFZ Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig, Germany. 

“The continents are drying out over time,” said Samaniego, who was not involved in the new study but wrote a related Perspective article in Science. 

In some regions, there would have to be well above average rainfall for 10 consecutive years to recover from extended periods of drought, he said.

“You can forget it. It’s not going to be like that. This is permanent, at least for our time scale,” he said.

“On a longer timescale, over millions of years…Earth could become as dry as Mars,” he added. “Earth could become a desert without atmosphere, but I don’t think that is where we want to live.”

The new study describes the “magnitude of the changes that we are causing,” he said. “Because at the end, what is creating this change in moisture is this minute molecule of CO2 that we keep pumping and pumping and pumping and pumping, and that’s creating an instability in the atmosphere.”

When the researchers combined satellite data about water in soils, sea level measurements and observations of precipitation, they found a “dramatic depletion in soil moisture.” Soils lost about 1,614 gigatons of water between 2000 and 2002—a big downward step in global soil moisture from which there has been no recovery. Instead, the depletion continued, with soils losing an additional 1,009 gigatons of water from 2003 to 2016. In comparison, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost about 900 gigatons of water from melting ice between 2002 and 2006. 

The findings suggest that this decline is primarily driven by shifts in precipitation patterns and increasing evaporative demand due to rising temperatures. As of 2021, soil moisture had made no recovery, the authors noted, adding that they saw little likelihood of recovery under current climate conditions. 

Co-author Dongryeol Ryu, an environmental hydrologist at the University of Melbourne, said that as the researchers examined the data, they saw a step-change in sea level rise in the early 2000s that looked unnatural.

“When something looks too strange or too new, naturally, scientists suspect there were some errors,” he said. “So we tried to replicate that using different measurements.”

When they removed all the possible contributing factors other than soil moisture from their calculations, the big jump in global mean sea level in the early 2000s remained, and matched the loss of soil moisture, with roughly 1 millimeter global mean sea level rise for every 360 gigatons of water lost from land, he said.

At some point, “We may see a drying of lakes and drying streams,” he said, although where the drying trend will lead isn’t clear. “Even if you have sufficient rainfall, they may continue to dry.”

He noted that, globally, funding for ground monitoring has been decreasing and the number of gauge stations declining.

“We need a community effort for that, not just one or two groups, because there are so many different types of monitoring stations,” he said. ”I hope we could put all these isolated data together to see if they are pointing in the same direction.”

Polar Motion

The redistribution of water can change the way Earth wobbles as it spins on its axis, so the team compared the “polar motion” that shows that teetering to their comprehensive soil moisture database, Ryu said. The changes in the Earth’s spin correlated with the changed distribution of water on the planet, with the wobble behaving as expected with less moisture in soil and more water in the oceans.

The research team included geoscientist Clark Wilson, professor emeritus with the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the University of Texas, who has been studying Earth’s rotation for 50 years, starting with his 1976 dissertation.

“In the early ‘70s, polar motion was just an oddity,” he said, “But now, everybody has a GPS receiver in their cell phone, and the whole GPS system and satellite navigation systems all require very, very accurate knowledge of polar motion.”

That’s led to a big increase in the number of people studying the Earth’s wobble, he said.

In the last 100 years, post-glacial rebound of land and loss of ice masses have shifted the exact location of the rotational axis by about 20 meters, he said. 

Knowing where the exact point of rotation is relative to other fixed points in space is the basis for all modern GPS navigation, including missile guidance systems, but scientists also realized early on that the Earth’s wobble also provided insights about global climate change.

“Global sea level tells you about total water volumes, but it doesn’t say where it came from,” he said. “Polar motion, on the other hand, is sensitive to geographical distribution of mass.”

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission launched in 2002 allowed for the observations of how the distribution of mass on the planet was changing, particularly through its ability to monitor terrestrial water storage by measuring changes in gravity.

“It’s a wonderful measurement because in the past, water storage in the soil was done by drilling a well and measuring the level of the water,” he said.

Those isolated measurements didn’t help to define a global water budget that included factors like evaporation and runoff, making it impossible to model planet-wide water cycles, he said. “GRACE has changed all that.” 

Global Drought?

Ryu, the University of Melbourne researcher, said it’s important to go back to the 1980s, when the average global temperature started increasing sharply, to understand the changes they measured in the new study.

Initially, scientists were puzzled that the vapor pressure deficit—a measure of how much moisture is in the air compared to what it could hold at a given temperature—did not immediately increase to match the rising temperatures, he said. 

“But starting in about 2000, the vapor pressure deficit started increasing very steeply, coinciding with our analysis period,” he said. 

That coincided with an “unusual” three-year decline of global precipitation from 2000 to 2003, leading to the decline in soil moisture that persisted through at least 2021. The two big declines were in the early 2000s and in 2015 and 2016, the second associated with a strong El Niño, a warm phase of a tropical Pacific Ocean cycle that shifts global rainfall patterns. Another strong El Niño could result in another big step down of global soil moisture, he said.

Regional impacts continue to be concerning, he said, highlighting a highly unusual and ongoing dry period in the Amazon.“If you look at the GRACE data over the Amazon, that’s really scary,” he said.

Drought, in many cases, is a slow-onset impact of global warming, he said.

“Not visible doesn’t mean that it’s not important,” he said. “We are very, very cautious about floods, earthquakes and wildfires, because they happen in the timescale of our life. The impacts are very visible, but drought is a creeping disaster.”

Most conventional drought measurements are based on precipitation and potential evaporative transpiration, which can suggest short-term recovery from drought conditions, but only have limited capability to detect the slow, long-term depletion of soil moisture. But their measurements of terrestrial water around the world found persistent declines, sometimes in steep steps.

“After a shock of rainfall deficits for a year or two, we used to be able to see recovery, but not anymore,” he said. “That is a very serious concern.” 

Southwest Hit Especially Hard

The global pattern identified in the new study has been emerging since the GRACE data has become available, said water researcher and co-author Jay Famiglietti, global futures professor at Arizona State University’s School of Sustainability. 

“It’s what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been predicting, which is wet areas getting wetter and the tropics and mid-latitudes getting drier,” he said.

The rate of drying in middle latitudes is higher, he noted, because of a positive feedback loop in which people use more groundwater as lands become more arid.

The implications of the research are especially profound in the Southwest, he said, where it shows the Four Corners region has been drying out for 30 or 40 years. 

“That really puts our food security at risk, and it also puts the economy of the Southwest at risk,” he said, noting the growing importance of the water-intensive computer chip and data center industries.

With most rain that falls in the Southwest already evaporating rapidly, and that rate increasing as temperatures climb, staunching the hemorrhaging of groundwater there is critical to the region’s survival.

“With a wet winter, you get a little recovery of groundwater, but then you get a big drop, and then maybe you get another little recovery and another big drop,” he said. “I liken it to a tennis ball bouncing down the stairs.

“It’s pretty much one way. We need to put the brakes on, understanding that we’re not going to get more [water],” he said. 

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

On March 18—for the second time in 5 days—a ferocious dust storm across the southern High Plains and neighboring regions led to sharp visibility reductions and increasingly stressful conditions for rangeland, pastures, and winter grains. The dust, lofted by high winds, was drawn into a storm system crossing the central Plains and upper Midwest, leading to widespread reports of “dirty” rain and snow. On March 19-20, significant accumulations of wind-driven snow occurred from parts of Kansas and Nebraska into northern Michigan, while locally severe thunderstorms erupted across the Midwest. More than a dozen tornadoes were spotted on March 19 across Illinois and Indiana. Farther east, however, parts of the Carolinas experienced a rash of spring wildfires, with the Black Cove and Deep Woods Fires near Saluda, North Carolina, collectively charring some 6,000 acres of vegetation and destroying at least 20 structures. Some of the fuel for fires in the Carolinas was provided by trees downed by Hurricane Helene about 6 months ago. Elsewhere, dry weather dominated the southern Plains and the Southwest, while late-season precipitation fell in northern and central California and the Northwest. According to the California Department of Water Resources, the average water equivalency of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snowpack climbed nearly to 25 inches, essentially ensuring a normal seasonal accumulation. For the second week in a row, near- or below-normal temperatures dominated the West, although warmer weather arrived late in the drought-monitoring period. Conversely, warm weather prevailed in many areas east of the Rockies, with consistently chilly conditions limited to portions of the nation’s northern tier…

High Plains

Major storm systems continued to “undercut” the Dakotas and portions of neighboring states. Notably, severe drought (D2) was broadly expanded in South Dakota, where season-to-date snowfall totals were broadly at least 1 to 2 feet below average. With the northern Plains’ drought occurring at multiple time scales, current impacts include poor conditions for rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat. In contrast, late-season storminess across the northern Intermountain West, including much of northern and western Wyoming, led to improved mountain snowpack, more favorable spring and summer runoff prospects, and reductions in drought coverage and intensity…

West

Occasional precipitation continued to fall across roughly the northern half of the region, further improving high-elevation snowpack, as well as spring and summer runoff prospects. Drought improvements of up to one category were introduced from the northern Great Basin to the northern Rockies. Meanwhile, dry weather returned across the Southwest, following some late-season precipitation that was heaviest in parts of southern California but did not reach the southern Rockies. In fact, significant increases of all drought categories were introduced in New Mexico, parts of which have been affected by the same windy, dusty weather that has been plaguing the southern Plains…

South

Drought-related impacts further spread and intensified across parts of Texas and Oklahoma, amid March winds, dust, and dryness. In fact, two previously separate areas of drought were connected across Texas and Oklahoma. Meanwhile, little rain has fallen since mid-February across Arkansas and portions of neighboring states. While the short-term dryness has been favorable for spring fieldwork, rain will soon be needed across the mid-South for pastures, fall-sown small grains, and recently planted summer crops. By March 23, nearly one-half (46%) of the intended rice acreage had been planted in Louisiana, along with 36% in Texas. In Arkansas, 10% of the corn and 2% of the rice had been planted by March 23, while 7% of the winter wheat had headed. Pastures in Arkansas—rated 27% very poor to poor on March 23—were just starting to exhibit some stress from short-term dryness. On that date, rangeland and pastures in Texas were in much worse shape (71% very poor to poor), reflecting drought at multiple time scales and the impact of recent blowing dust…

Looking Ahead

Drought-easing rain across southern Texas will gradually shift eastward along the Gulf Coast. Five-day rainfall totals could reach 2 to 8 inches or more across the western half of the Gulf Coast region, with higher totals leading to flooding in southern and coastal Texas. Meanwhile, active weather will also prevail in the vicinity of a nearly stationary front draped across the northern United States. The front will separate cold air to the north from warmth farther south, with accumulating snow expected during the weekend from parts of the northern Plains eastward into northern New England. Meanwhile, Midwestern 5-day rainfall could total 1 to 2 inches, accomdpanied at times by locally severe thunderstorms. Elsewhere, persistent low pressure near the northern Pacific Coast will maintain showery, unsettled conditions from the Northwest to the northern Rockies, while mostly dry weather will persist in the Southwest, despite a cooling trend.

The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for April 1-5 calls for above-normal precipitation nearly nationwide, with northern and central California and the western Great Basin having the greatest likelihood of experiencing wet conditions.  Elevated odds of near- or below-normal precipitation should be limited to southern Texas.  Meanwhile, warmer-than-normal weather from the southern half of the Plains to the middle and southern Atlantic Coast should contrast with below-normal temperatures in the Far West and across the nation’s northern tier.

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Shannon Mullane):

March 27, 2025

The pressure is on: Colorado’s average snowpack statewide masks worrisome water conditions in the south, where water providers are banking on more storms to boost water supplies before snowmelt begins in April.

Much of Colorado’s annual water supply is stored in its winter snowpack, which builds up until early April when it melts and flows into soils, streams and reservoirs. Statewide, Colorado is headed toward that April 8 peak with 92% of its normal snowpack for this time of year. But conditions vary widely from north to south and within individual river basins, leaving some water experts concerned about drought, wildfires and reservoir levels, officials said during a Water Conditions Monitoring Committee meeting Tuesday.

One of those experts is Pat McDermott, who is based in the Upper Rio Grande River Basin in south-central Colorado, where the snowpack is 69% of the norm from 1991 to 2020.

“We need to keep having snow. This has been a dismal year for snowpack accumulation,” McDermott, a staff engineer for the Colorado Division of Water Resources, said Tuesday. “We had a whole month and a half — from Dec. 1 to Jan. 15 — when it hardly snowed a speck.”

In the northern half of the state, the snowpack is normal, according to the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The Colorado Headwaters Basin, where the Colorado River begins; the Yampa-White-Little Snake combined basin, which supplies Western Slope communities in the northwestern corner of the state; and the South Platte Basin, which feeds rivers on the Front Range, are all in good condition.

The Laramie and North Platte combined basin was the only region with a higher-than-average snowpack, measuring about 103% of the median compared to the 30-year period as of Tuesday. There is a storm in the forecast this week — both small positive notes for an area dealing with persistent drought conditions after a dry summer in 2024.

The snowpack in these regions typically peaks between April 8 and April 26.

With these conditions heading into spring runoff, officials have an eye out for flooding. Flood risk from snow runoff might be suppressed in areas where the snowpack is lower than average, said Kevin Houck, chief of watershed and flood protection at the Colorado Water Conservation Board, which hosts the monthly water conditions meeting.

Some of these northern basins, like the Yampa-White-Little Snake basin, are heading into the summer with little drought and average reservoir levels in addition to the normal snowpack.

In southern parts of the state, it’s the opposite.

Experts are scouring the data. They’re gauging moisture in the soil, pre-runoff reservoir conditions and weather forecasts for the next three months.

Their goal is to assess whether regions are being dealt a bad hand.

A poor snowpack can mean less water flowing into rivers and streams. Some of that subpar runoff can get sucked up by dry soils. That leaves even less water flowing into reservoirs that are already low. Sparse storms in the forecast, and warm or dry conditions can just make matters worse.

These compounding factors elevate concerns about wildfire risk and raise the odds that farmers will have to reduce their crop output because they won’t have enough irrigation water.

That’s what happening in southern Colorado with more warm and dry weather on the horizon.

“That is not the kind of outlook that we like to see at this point either,” said Russ Schumacher, the state climatologist, in a presentation during Tuesday’s water conditions meeting.

Spotlight on the Upper Rio Grande

Down in the south-central region of the state, McDermott is worried.

At the summit of Wolf Creek Pass, the snowpack is 66% of normal. But down the pass toward Pagosa Springs and the rest of the San Juan River Basin, the snowpack is 45% of average.

“It’s worse this year at Wolf Creek than it was on the same date in 2018, so we’re using 2018 as a potential forecast point here in the Upper Rio Grande Basin this year,” McDermott said. “Of course, 2018 was a terrible year.”

That year, the snowpack peaked March 30 with 6.9 inches of liquid water in the snow. It normally peaks on April 3 with 14.4 inches, according to federal data. Runoff plummeted and ended a month early.

This year, the basin had 7.9 inches of liquid water in the snow as of Tuesday.

In the Upper Rio Grande River Basin, there are two positives to consider: The region had good precipitation heading into the winter, which locked more moisture into the frozen soils, and some of the smaller basins have a better snowpack than others.

On the east side of the San Luis Valley, the snowpack in the Sangre de Cristo mountains varies from 30% to 96% of normal in basins that are mere miles from each other. The snowpack near Great Sand Dunes National Park is at 6%.

“It looks like it’s going to be below normal over there on the Sangre de Cristos, but depending on which little basin you’re in, you may have a little better year than others,” McDermott said.

March, normally the region’s snowiest month, has not served up enough snow to make up for the dry winter. It’ll need more snow just to hold onto that before spring runoff starts, he said. The region’s snowpack typically reaches its peak accumulation April 3.

Climate models indicate less than the normal amount of precipitation across southern Colorado for the next week.

McDermott predicted that it will be one of the top 10 worst runoff seasons basinwide since 1900, during the water meeting Tuesday. The basin is heading into a subpar spring runoff with reservoirs that are already low, holding just 20% to 60% of their full capacity.

Sanchez Reservoir stored about 5,000 acre-feet of its 100,000-acre-foot capacity as of Tuesday. One acre-foot of water equals about 325,850 gallons of water and can supply roughly two to four households for one year.

“We’re a little hamstrung,” McDermott said. “We’re running what appears to be a dry year.”

The future outlook does not offer much relief to the basin or other regions of southern Colorado.

The two-week forecast shows higher temperatures across the state, and less-than-average precipitation in the southeastern region, Schumacher said.

Drought conditions are already creeping into the Western Slope, although drought conditions have improved along the Front Range, north-central Colorado and the Eastern Plains. By June, the wildfire risk is expected to be above normal for the southwestern corner of the state, Schumacher said.

“The news is probably tilted towards the bad side in terms of drought,” he said.

More by Shannon Mullane