Unexpected voices in the national #climate debate: A few paragraphs in a #Meeker newspaper triggered a legal brief supporting #Boulder in Supreme Court case heard on Monday — Allen Best (BigPivots.com)

Suncor refinery Commerce City. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

October 6, 2026

Four paragraphs buried in a story published by the Meeker Herald-Times during mid-June triggered the entry of several Colorado ranchers into the Boulder-Suncor case argued on Monday morning before the U.S. Supreme Court.

The Herald Times is the newspaper of record (and the only one) in Rio Blanco County, which is in the state’s northwestern corner. It’s distinctly rural. Cattle numbers vary by season, somewhere between 16,000 and 25,000. In all seasons they outnumber humans: 6,529 as of the 2020 census.

The newspaper story recounted a June 9 meeting of county commissioners. They heard about agrivoltaics from Longmont’s Byron Kominek (Jack’s Solar Garden) and their county attorney advised them on best legal procedures for setting meeting agendas. The new Colorado State University County extension agent had stopped by to say hello, and the state transportation director for the region delivered an update on highway plans.

In the story’s 32nd paragraph, news was delivered that the county commissioners had agreed to participate in an amicus brief in the Supreme Court case siding with Suncor and Exxon Mobil at a cost to the county up to $17,500.

ā€œThe outcome of this decision by the Supreme Court will affect 100 other cases across the United States, so we felt that it was well worth our time and money to try and do the right thing,ā€ explained Commissioner Doug Overton of why Rio Blanco County should add its name to the filing by the Associated Governments of Northwest Colorado.

Deirdre Macnab later read that story at her nearby ranch along the White River. She had a different and visceral reaction as to what constituted the ā€œright thingā€ in this case.

Unlike many of her neighbors in Rio Blanco County, who have family trees several generations deep, she had arrived in 2020 from Florida and, before that, Manhattan. She has her own Wikipedia entry, which describes her as an ā€œAmerican women’s rights and voting rights activist and sustainable agriculture rancher.ā€

Macnab decided other voices were needed from Rio Blanco County in this case.

ā€œI called Boulder County and spoke to some of the attorneys there,ā€ she related in a noon-hour session with students at the University of Colorado Law School on Oct. 1. ā€œWould you be interested in hearing from some of the people who are involved in agriculture in the state?ā€ she asked. Yes, they said.

ā€œAnd it wasn’t very difficult to find a number of ranchers.ā€

One rancher, a veterinarian, lives near Grand Junction, Macnab told the audience in Boulder, speaking from a remote source.

ā€œShe is currently selling her herd of cattle because it does not make financial sense to try to feed her cattle hay through the winter because the heat and the drought this year was so extreme that she was not able to grow the forage that she usually grows. We’re seeing hay prices that have increased by more than 50%. This is just one example of many ranchers that I’ve spoken to.ā€

Another among her agricultural acquaintances, she said, has pigs near Hayden. ā€œHe said his pigs were dying of sunstroke, and he was facing the decision of having to go out of business because for the first time he was having to haul water at a cost of $2,000 to $3,000 a month.ā€

Meeker and other parts of the Western Slope have been warming at a faster rate than Colorado altogether. And Colorado, of course, has warmed rapidly in the last 125 years, particularly during the last 25. A map posted on the Colorado State University’s Colorado Climate Center website tells the story of temperature increases from 1895 to 2025 in shades of pink, orange and red. Far western Colorado from the San Juans north to Wyoming — including both Grand Junction and Rio Blanco County — is deep red.

Macnab began her comments to the law students with a description of the two wildfires in 2025 that afflicted Rio Blanco County. The Lee, the fifth largest in Colorado’s recorded history, and the Elk together covered more than 137,000 acres.

ā€œI have a neighbor rancher,ā€ said Macnab. ā€œHe had 60 cows that burned to death. I had another neighbor and close friend whose entire ranch burned, and she nearly lost her house. There were flame marks on her house. A number of ranchers lost miles and miles of fence.ā€

Kathleen Kelley in June explained to visitors the devastation of the Lee Fire of the previous summer. Photo/Allen Best

That good friend who nearly lost her house and a great deal of fence, too, was Kathleen Kelley. Kelley had grown up in Meeker and had been ranching since the 1980s, as her father had before.

Like Macnab, Kelley differs from many other ranchers in the White River Valley, where Meeker is located. She drives an electric car. As for the house that didn’t burn, it had triple-pane windows, a rarity everywhere, more costly but more energy efficient. In this case, the triple panes prevented heat from exploding the windows and allowing the flames to leap into the house.

Kelley was unusual in other ways, too. When still in her 20s, she had been elected a Colorado state legislator, the youngest ever female to do so. Now in her 70s, she retired earlier this year after a 20-year stint as a teacher in Meeker. She contributed an essay to Big Pivots in September after the death of Windell Berry. It can be found here.

Being retired, she told Big Pivots, she feels more freedom — and responsibility to speak out. She has had many opportunities in recent months. It began in an account in the The Denver Post last year about the fire. Then, earlier this year, the Trump administration refused funds to aid the ranchers of Rio Blanco County, an apparent case of spite against Colorado. An enterprising New York Times reporter, who had grown up in Colorado Springs, contacted her, resulting in a story in that newspaper this summer.

In recent weeks, she has in turn been contacted first by a reporter from Colorado Newsline and then by other reporters from Los Angeles to Washington D.C. They want to know about her involvement in the lawsuit. Recent days brought more mentions in publications such as Mother Jones and Grist.

Kelley was interviewed by a radio station in Boston in a report that was broadcast on Monday. The radio station also interviewed a county commissioner in Mesa County, which is on the other side of this fence.

These inquiries were not the result of a PR machine. Rather, it appears to have been a case of journalists reading each others’ stories. And it happened very, very quickly..

ā€œI have been involved in a lot of grassroots efforts, but this one was was the least orchestrated one I have ever seen,ā€ she said. It was, she added, not a message massaged by an advocacy group, but rather a group of ranchers saying what they had to say.

ā€œFor Colorado ranchers, climate change is not an abstract possibility, but a lived reality that is threatening the economic viability of a way of life that has been central to communities for generations,ā€ says the amicus brief that was filed on behalf of the ranchers.

The PIceance Basin in Rio Blanco County was full of drilling rigs in 2007 when gas prices reached $14/million Btu before tumbling rapidly as the recession arrived. Photo/Allen Best

The brief filed on behalf of Rio Blanco County — the government, not the handful of ranchers — also includes seven other Western Slope counties: Archuleta, Delta, Grand, Garfield, Mesa, Montezuma, and Montrose. That brief argues that the economic interests of the counties would be harmed because they depend upon oil and gas extraction. In Montezuma County (Cortez), between 40% and 50% of county tax revenue has historically come from oil-and-gas production,ā€ the brief says. ā€œThe potential impacts of this litigation on those counties are staggering.ā€

A clear exception is Grand County, which has virtually no oil and gas extraction. (This writer used to live there). Apparently, Grand County is just along for the ride.

The Suncor-Boulder case fundamentally involves climate change, although the specific question before the Supreme Court is over jurisdiction. Boulder and Boulder County (and on the coattails, San Miguel County) sued Suncor and ExxonMobil in 2018, claiming monetary damages resulting from warming and other climate changes caused by greenhouse gas emissions. It cites floods, heat and drought.

This filing was in Colorado courts. The fossil fuel companies tried to get the case moved to federal court, but the Colorado Supreme Court ruled in 2025 that the state courts do have jurisdiction. Suncor, ExxonMobil and their supporters want the Boulder case — and dozens of others like it from elsewhere in the country — decided in federal courts.

Lawyers from the law school in Boulder at the noon session last Thursday sorted through the legal twists and turns of this case in the noon-hour session. It’s complicated.

ā€œYou may be experiencing what I’m experiencing, which is kind of a Kafka-esque disorientation of confusion,ā€ said Chris Winter, executive director of the Getches-Wilkinson Center at the University of Colorado Law School. The federal government, he said, wants to have it both ways. It is arguing that this is a federal case while it also says it has no statutory authority to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act.

ā€œSo that’s awfully confusing. I’m confused. I know a lot of you are confused as well.ā€

The New York Times, in a report published Sunday, said critics had called the federal government’s position a paradox. ā€œThe federal government is trying to get out of the business of regulating greenhouse gases, while also saying it has sole authority to regulate greenhouse gases.ā€

Confusion continued into Monday morning’s two-hour hearing before the Supreme Court. The Times reported that at least two justices admitted to being confused at various junctures in what the newspaper described as a ā€œcomplex dispute.ā€

The question arose whether the federal government could have it both ways. ā€œAs I understand it, the EPA has disclaimed the power to regulate greenhouse gases,ā€ said Justice Neil Gorsuch. The Wall Street Journal also reported that questions from Chief Justice John Roberts suggested an openness to Boulder’s argument.

That leaves open some potential for a 4-4 vote next year, which would leave the case in the Colorado Supreme Court. Justice Samuel Alito announced on Sept. 28 that he would not participate because of his ownership of stock in oil and gas companies. In the case of a tie, Boulder would win the question of jurisdiction, leaving the case in Colorado.

The decision will likely not be delivered until next June, possibly July, according to the national reporters who camp out at the Supreme Court.

ā€œThe argument was harder to read than most,ā€ said the Times’ Adam Liptak. ā€œThe three Democratic appointees were likely votes for Boulder, and Justice Kavanaugh was adamant in his support for the energy companies. But the remaining Republican appointees’ questions were more mixed, and Boulder needs only one of their votes to prevail in light of Justice Alito’s recusal.ā€

But, once again, it’s a complex case deep into the legal weeds.

In question, at least in part, is whether this case has parallels with the litigation against a handful of tobacco companies in the 1990s that ultimately yielded a $206 billion settlement. In this case, though, the sources of emissions are much more diffuse – and importantly, global. Too, as Gale Norton, a former attorney general in Colorado (and interior secretary in the Bush administration) told the New York Times, fossil fuels have benefited people broadly. The same claim for tobacco is a much more difficult case to make.

Bloomberg, in an Oct. 1 story, said that climate suits, unlike the tobacco suits, have had trouble getting off the ground. The Supreme Court closed one avenue, ruling unanimously in 2011 that states cannot invoke federal law to force utilities to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Boulder has tried a different approach, filing in state law and using traditional tort doctrines in arguing the oil companies misled the public about the risks of climate change while simultaneously contributing to the problem by producing and promoting fossil fuels.

The Wall Street Journal, in an editorial, took a dim view of Boulder’s case. Boulder, it said, ā€œcannot supplant Congress’s power to regulate commerce among the states. Tolerating Boulder’s raid would blow the Constitution’s doors open to laws like those in New York and Vermont that seek to raid U.S. oil and gas producers for alleged damages caused by global CO2 emissions.ā€

William Barr, the former attorney general, had something similar to say in a guest commentary in the same publication under the headline: ā€œBoulder Has No Business Making Foreign Policy.ā€

Boulder’s suit, wrote Barr, ā€œasks a state court to impose potentially enormous liability on selected American energy companies for their alleged contribution to a worldwide phenomenon. Yet the overwhelming share of the conduct at issue lies beyond not only Colorado’s borders but America’s.ā€

The U.S. Constitution, he said, does not allow state and local governments to make that kind of judgement.

These legal abstractions were largely absent in the remarks of Boulder and Boulder Count officials after the oral arguments before the Supreme Court. Instead, Mayor Aaron Brockett issued a statement that talked about ā€œhotter summers and extreme heat, to drought, declining snowpack, worsening wildfire risk and devastating fires. And every time those impacts intensify, our community pays,ā€ he said.

At her 2,000-acre ranch near Meeker, Kelley on Sunday pondered what connected her and the other ranchers who had filed the brief in August. Jay Fetcher, who has been profiled in Big Pivots, has a ranch northwest of Steamboat Springs, where he has continued the observations of his father, who since the late 1940s began noting the date of the last snow on the ranch. Snow has disappeared earlier over the decades — especially so this year. See: ā€œAlong the Elk River, earlier springs and more uncertainty.ā€

Cattle far outnumber people in Rio Blanco County, and when water is available — as it obviously was on this pasture near Meeker in August — the meadows can turn vibrant green. Photo/Allen Best

Another rancher, Mike Callicrate, lives in Evergreen but was a bull rider in his younger days and married a Kansas farm girl and has feedlots there. He has an opinionated website called nobull.mikecallicarte.com, where he inveighs against the ā€œoligarchs and multinational corporationsā€ of our food system.

The common theme among these and others who signed onto the brief, said Kelley, was a belief in regenerative agriculture.

Last week, reviewing the filings with the Supreme Court in this Boulder-Suncor case, Kelley noticed the date the oil companies had asked the U.S. Supreme Court to take the case — arguing that Colorado had no jurisdiction: Aug. 8, 2025.

That same day, she said, she and her family were evacuated a second time because of the Lee Fire, leaving her to wonder whether they would have a house to which they could return.

ā€œOn one hand these guys are evading responsibility and on the other hand is my family not knowing whether we will be able to afford the impacts of the Lee Fire on our property.

Kelley confides that she rarely cries, but she did when she saw that date.

ā€œThat was like a two-by-four with nails.ā€

Data Dump: Western Hay and Alfalfa Exports — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org) #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Graph from the 1946 federal report, ā€œThe Colorado River: A Natural Menace Becomes a Natural Resource,ā€ showing the value of livestock to Upper Basin states.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

September 30, 2026

ā˜˜ļø ANNALS OF ALFALFA šŸ€

It seems like only a few years ago that a PR person from the East Coast emailed me to tell me how surprised she was to read in the Land Desk that alfalfa and other livestock forage crops guzzled up a lot of the West’s water. ā€œI didn’t even know they still grew alfalfa,ā€ she wrote, incredulously. Actually, it was only a few years ago, but my how things have changed in the realm of alfalfa discourse. I’m guessing she and just about everyone else who pays attention has figured that one out by now, as it’s become vogue in certain circles to assert that the solution to the West’s water crisis is simply to stop growing alfalfa and other ā€œlow-valueā€ agricultural crops and use the water for cities and data centers, instead. At the very least, they argue, we shouldn’t be exporting alfalfa overseas. 

I’m not going to jump into that hornet’s nest again, at least not today. Instead, I dug up a bunch of data and used them to build a handful of graphs that will, hopefully, illuminate the situation a bit and give all parties — alfalfaphobes and alfalfaphiles alike — something to chew on. Call it statistical cud that I’ve gnawed on, masticated, partially digested, and now am handing over to you to derive some nutrients from. (Eww. That’s gross. Sorry.)

From the 1946 report, ā€œThe Colorado River: A Natural Menace Becomes a Natural Resource.ā€
This is for each state as a whole, and includes acreage that is not in the Colorado River Basin and that is not irrigated with Colorado River water (in California’s Central Valley, for example, or Colorado’s San Luis Valley, or around the Great Salt Lake in Utah). Note that this graph singles out alfalfa, and does not include acreage planted in other types of hay or forage (the other graphs look at hay generally). Data Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service.

While hay and alfalfa are often maligned as ā€œlow-valueā€ crops, farmers also grow it to make money. As you can see from the chart below, farmers in Colorado River Basin states harvested nearly $5 billion worth of hay in 2022. That’s on a par with the Colorado ski industry’sĀ annual economic output.

Over the last two decades or so, Western state farmers have sold an increasing amount of hay, especially alfalfa, to overseas buyers. This is largely due to the growing global taste and demand for cow-milk products. Alfalfa is favored by dairy operations because its high protein content increases milk yield. So if you’re trying to reduce alfalfa demand by quitting beef, you’re barking up the wrong tree; you’ll have to ditch the ice cream and cheese, as well (or switch to goat or sheep milk products). 

While hay exports are a billion-dollar-per-year industry, they are dropping off for a variety of reasons, from tariffs and trade wars to China’s shrinking dairy herds and gradually decreasing production here at home.

Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

While the Western hay-export industry brought in over $1 billion in 2022, it’s not quite accurate to say thatĀ mostĀ of the region’s hay production is for export. Still, more than 20% is quite a lot of Western water to be sending overseas on giant container ships.

In 2025, exports accounted for about 17% of all Colorado River Basin state hay production value. Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service.

The largest hay exporter in the West is California, with Arizona and Utah trading second and third places. Other Colorado River Basin states export insignificant amounts of hay, according to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

California’s biggest overseas hay customers have been Japan and China, though the China market has been shrinking since 2022. Source: USDA FAS
China has been Utah’s biggest hay buyer by far, though it also ships hay to Korea and Japan. Source: USDA FAS.
Most of the hay exported from Arizona has traditionally gone to Saudi Arabia via Fondomonte Farms, which is owned by Almarai, a huge Saudi dairy and food company. Fondomonte owns farms in Arizona where it grows its own alfalfa for export. Fondomonte pumps groundwater for irrigation, which is not counted against Arizona’s allocation from the Colorado River (even though groundwater and surface water are connected). Source: USDA FAS.

So what’s the takeaway from all of this? Well, like I said, I’m just providing the fodder for you to ruminate on, so to speak. 

But it does definitively show that alfalfa and hay aren’t just some kind of side gig for Western farmers. They are important crops. And trying to convince farmers to give them up — along with the nearly $5 billion per year they can generate — is going to be tough, even if it is necessary. 


ā›ļø MINING MONITOR ā›ļø

In last week’s dispatch on more mining claims staked in the shrunken Bears Ears National Monument I mentioned a few dozen that appeared to have been located by Land Survey Advisors, including some in the former monument. I was able to finally get past the glitches in the San Juan County database and get confirmation that all 36 claims were, in fact, staked within Bears Ears’ pre-shrinkage boundaries. That brings the total number of new claims in Bears Ears to 72. 

I’ll map all of the claims for a future dispatch and will continue to keep my eyes open for more new ones.

šŸ“– READING (&LISTENING) ROOM šŸ“°
  • The Magic Southwest podcast has an insightful episode about the lost working-class neighborhoods that once lined the Animas River in Durango.Ā Well, I shouldn’t say they’re ā€œlost.ā€ They were mostly destroyed by the city to make way for roads, sewage treatment plants, parks, or just as a form of urban renewal, if you will. Give it a listen below:
  • Heads up Four Corners area folks: I’ll be giving a presentation on the Dolores River as part of a Dolores River Boating Advocates’ event on Friday, Nov. 6, from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. at the Powerhouse in Durango.Ā Following a short film about Snaggletooth Rapid I’ll speak about my personal relationship with the Dolores River, its history, the way it is a sort of microcosm of the Colorado River as a whole, and about its potential futures. I’ll also throw in a funny little tale about the time I saw Ed Abbey go through Snaggletooth. Tickets are $10 — which will help DRBA defray costs — and seating is limited. There will also be a cash bar.Ā Reserve your spot now.Ā 
ā›ˆļø WACKY WEATHER WATCHāš”ļø

Things are getting crazy down in southern New Mexico, especially near Hatch, where the Rio Grande has jumped its banks and inundated fields, homes, and even I-25. Check out the video below for more. And stay tuned next week when I have a recap of the 2026 water year, which may have been the wackiest on record.

#Drought news October 8, 2026: Widespread heavy precipitation abetted robust improvement across eastern #Colorado, central and western #Kansas, and parts of southern Nebraska, 2-category improvements in portions

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Heavy to excessive rainfall impacted significant parts of the Contiguous States this past week. Amounts of 4 to locally over 8 inches of rain were common across south-central and southeastern Georgia, northeastern Florida, the Florida Panhandle, portions of the immediate Gulf Coast, and a swath from central Texas through the middle Red River (South) Valley. This brought an abrupt end to a protracted spell of hot and dry weather across the southern Great Plains that dated back through most of the summer. Dallas, TX recorded 4 inches of rain from September 30 through the first week of October, including a daily total of 3.47 inches on October 1. Prior to that, Dallas recorded only 0.01 inch of rainfall July 16 through September 29 (76 days), and a total of 2.27 inches going back to June 8. Elsewhere, a few broad areas recorded at least 2 inches for the week, including most of the Gulf Coast, southern Alabama, central and southern Georgia, the northern half of Florida, a large stripe through central and adjacent eastern Texas, central through southeastern Oklahoma, and in numerous patches from southeastern Colorado and much of Kansas through southeastern Nebraska, portions of Iowa, northern Missouri, northern Illinois, and the central to southern Great Lakes Region. In some of the wetter locations across the central Plains and adjacent Front Range, impacts improved substantially enough to justify 2-cagegory improvements on the Drought Monitor. Meanwhile, several patches across northern Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, and the adjacent Lower Ohio Valley also received 2 or more inches of rain. Moderate totals exceeding 0.5 inch, with localized totals topping 2 inches, affected areas from the central High Plains and southern half of the Great Plains eastward and northeastward through much of the Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central and southern Great Lakes, the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic Region, and the St. Lawrence Valley. Meanwhile, light precipitation at best was observed through most of the Northeast, the Upper Ohio Valley, the far Upper Mississippi Valley, the northern Great Plains, and most areas from the High Plains to the Pacific Coast outside Kansas, Colorado, and northern New Mexico. Many existing areas of drought that were impacted by the heavy precipitation experienced marked relief, but despite expansive areas receiving little or no measurable precipitation, drought intensification was limited in extent, largely due to the lower temperatures and the typical autumnal decline in human and environmental water demand…

High Plains

Widespread heavy precipitation abetted robust improvement across eastern Colorado, central and western Kansas, and parts of southern Nebraska. Numerous locations reported 3 to locally over 6 inches of rain, which was sufficient to support 2-category improvements in portions of southeastern Colorado and the western half of Kansas. Precipitation amounts declined abruptly north of a line from central Colorado through northeastern Nebraska, and only a few tenths of an inch at best was observed beyond this delineation. Still, improvements were introduced in parts of the central and northern Dakotas where earlier precipitation may have been more beneficial than initially assessed. The only areas of deterioration noted were in northeastern Colorado and part of north-central Wyoming, which consistently have been north and/or west of the heaviest precipitation. Elsewhere, dryness and drought intensities did not markedly change from last week…

Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending October 6, 2026.

West

Moderate to heavy precipitation (0.5 to locally approaching 2.0 inches) fell early in the period across north-central and northeastern New Mexico, but conditions were quiet across the rest of the West Region. There were scattered small areas reporting a few tenths of an inch of precipitation last week, primarily in Montana and the lower Four Corners States, while most sites observed no measurable amounts. But despite the predominantly dry week, fairly substantial areas of improvement were noted as the environmental response to earlier above-normal to heavy precipitation continued. Improvement was most common this week across New Mexico, Arizona, and Montana, with a few areas also noted in southeastern Idaho and Utah. Across almost all of Nevada, Idaho, and the three West Coast States, dryness and drought were essentially unchanged from the prior week…

South

A variable precipitation pattern was observed across Tennessee and the Lower Mississippi Valley last week, resulting in some areas of nominal improvement (scattered across eastern Tennessee, southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and northern and northwestern Arkansas) and other areas of somewhat increased moisture deficits and deterioration (scattered across central and western Tennessee, southern and eastern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and central through southwestern Louisiana). Farther west, across Texas and Oklahoma, broad areas recorded heavy to excessive precipitation, resulting in several sizeable areas of widespread improvement. Multiple inches of rain – for the second consecutive week in some areas – induced improvements across most of southeastern and Deep South Texas, and in a swath from central Texas through much of the Red River (South) Valley into central Oklahoma. Farther west, across the Big Bend and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, light to moderate precipitation following the excessive amounts recorded last week led to widespread one-category improvements. Enough precipitation was observed to support 2-category improvements at a few locations in Deep South Texas, south-central Oklahoma, and the western Oklahoma Panhandle. There were a few patches in southwestern Texas and the northern interior missing the heavy precipitation that hit most locations over the past couple of weeks, resulting in scattered spots of deterioration. Improvement was far more common across Texas and Oklahoma, however, as opposed to the mixed bag of changes noted farther east…

Looking Ahead

During October 7-12, Tropical Storm Isaias in the southwestern Gulf is expected to intensify into a category-2 hurricane and head northeastward and then northward toward the United States. After peaking in intensity and beginning to weaken, landfall is expected somewhere along the north-central or northeastern Gulf Coast late October 9. Once inland, Isaias should weaken more quickly as the remnant circulation tracks northward into the Southeast or adjacent Lower Mississippi Valley. Sustained winds are expected to peak around 105 mph in the northern Gulf, but with weakening expected to start prior to landfall up to a couple hundred miles inland. A surge of tropical moisture is expected to accompany Isaias into the Southeast, bringing moderate to heavy rains into the region, reaching as far northward as the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Region. By the end of the period, upwards of 7 inches of rain are expected in a few parts of the Florida Panhandle, and amounts exceeding 3 inches are forecast as far north as northern Alabama and adjacent areas in Mississippi and Georgia. Most areas along the Carolinas Coast are also expected to receive over 3 inches of rain. Farther west, another push of tropical moisture into the interior West could bring 3 to 6 inches of precipitation to isolated spots in the higher elevations of northeastern Utah and west-central Wyoming. At least 1.5 inches of rain are anticipated from central Mississippi eastward, reaching as far north as the Tennessee Valley, southern Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic Region. Scattered locations in the higher elevations of the interior West and southern California Coastal Ranges are also forecast to record over 1.5 inches of precipitation by October 12. Moderate amounts exceeding 0.5 inch should cover southernmost Florida along with the greater Ohio Valley, most of the Appalachians, central and southern New York, and southern New England. Many lower elevations across the interior West are also expected to see at least 0.5 inch. In contrast, little or no precipitation is expected in many areas impacted by dryness and drought, including the Far West to the north and west of the Sierra Nevada, most of the Plains and Great Lakes Region, and western reaches of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Above-normal temperatures are anticipated across a broad swath of the Nation’s Midsection from the southern and central Plains through the Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes Region. Daily high temperatures are expected to average at least 4 deg. F above normal there, with anomalies exceeding +10 deg. F from north-central Texas through most of Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas. Farther west, most locations from the northern and western Rockies to the Pacific Coast are expecting below normal temperatures, along with most of Montana. Daily highs are expected to average at least 3 deg. F below normal from the Cascades southward and eastward, with anomalies of -8 to -12 deg. F forecast in the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains of Montana.

Wetter than normal conditions are expected over the ensuing 5 days (October 13-17) across a large part of the Contiguous U.S. from the Rockies and northern High Plains eastward through New England, the Mid-Atlantic Region, the southern Appalachians, and the Florida Panhandle. The best odds for unusually heavy precipitation extend from the central and lower Four Corners Region eastward through Texas, the Red River (South) Valley, and the western Lower Mississippi Valley. At least marginally enhanced chances for surplus precipitation also cover all of Alaska and Hawaii. Only west-central and northern California and southwestern Oregon have nominally increased chances of subnormal precipitation. Meanwhile, above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the Pacific Northwest and over a large area including the Southeast, central and southern Appalachians, southern Great Lakes Region, Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, central and southern Great Plains, and southern High Plains. Warmer than normal conditions are also favored across Hawaii and the central and eastern sections of Alaska. Increased odds of below-normal temperatures are limited to the Northeast and New England.

US Drought Monitor one week change map ending October 6, 2026.

Just for grins here’s a slideshow of early October US Drought Monitor maps for the past few years.

How the QSA improved water conservation, reliability, technology, and infrastructure

By Brad Barham & Robert Marcos

It’s now painfully clear that the Colorado River is a limited resource which has been decreasing in flow for the past 25 years. Therefore new water conservation and transfer initiatives are more critical than ever to the continued economic and social vitality of the Southwest. An excellent example of this was provided in 2003 by the QSA between San Diego and the IID.

In 2003 the San Diego County Water Authority (SDCWA) and the Imperial Valley Irrigation District (IID) forged a mutually beneficial water partnership that demonstrated that urban sustainability and agricultural prosperity could thrive together. In their “Quantification Settlement Agreement“, the SDCWA provided major infusions of capital to the IID in exchange for an annual allotment of 200,000 acre feet of Colorado River water, accounting for more than half of the region’s water supply. The SDCWA received an additional 77,700 acre-feet of water that was conserved by lining long stretches of the All-American and Coachella canals.1, 2

At the time of the historic agreement San Diego County’s population had just passed the 3 million mark and 95% of its water had been coming from a single source: the Metropolitan Water District’s Colorado River allotment. Worse – it would be 12 more years until San Diego’s very expensive desalination plant would come online, offering a new source of water that supplies only about 10% of the county’s water use.. This meant that prior to the QSA the county’s water supply was exceptionally vulnerable to shortage.

From the IID’s point of view, their massive 3.1 million acre-foot (AF) Colorado River allotment had a major vulnerability: unlined earthen canals had been losing up to 100,000 AF of water every year through seepage. In addition to this the IID wanted farmers to employ more advanced irrigation systems but their investment costs limited adoption. That changed after the influx of hundreds of millions of dollars from San Diego and the State, which provided the financial lifeline needed to pay for the upgrades.

1. San Diego paid for an array of on-farm conservation upgrades: Under the QSA only water that was saved due to the following efficiency upgrades could be transferred to San Diego. 3

  • Drip Irrigation Systems
  • Portable & Fixed Sprinkler Systems
  • Tailwater Return (Recovery) Systems
  • Cascade Systems
  • Laser Land Leveling

2. System and Infrastructure Conservation: San Diego funds IID’s internal delivery system improvements to generate water efficiency. 4

  • Regulating & Mid-Lateral Reservoirs
  • Delivery System Automation
  • Main Canal Seepage Interception projects

3. All-American and Coachella Canal Concrete Lining: Paid for via QSA Partnerships

Through the QSA, San Diego secured $257 million in State of California subsidies to pay for the massive physical construction of concrete-lined sections of these earthen canals. This prevents massive water loss from seepage and provides San Diego with an additional ~80,000 acre-feet of water annually. 5

4. Historical Land Fallowing — Paid for through 2017

During the initial years of the QSA (2003–2017), before farmers had time to build modern drip and tailwater systems, San Diego paid for temporary land fallowing to kickstart the water transfer volumes. They also provided $30 million to mitigate environmental and economic impacts on the Imperial Valley from idling those fields. 6

San Diego and the Imperial Irrigaton District weren’t the QSA’s only beneficiaries

• Coachella Valley Water District (CVWD)

Prior to the QSA the Coachella Valley Water District received as much as 330,000 acre feet of Colorado River water, but those deliveries had been unreliable, and as a result the Coachella Valley’s groundwater was in a state of severe overdraft. Thanks to the QSA, CVWD’s water rights were officially quantified, the district received an immediate, additional 35,000 acre-feet of Colorado River water, and its long-term imported supply was scheduled to steadily increase over time. 7

• Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD)

The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the massive wholesale supplier for cities across Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties—was a core player. While MWD took a reduction in some historic surplus supplies to help California stay within its strict 4.4 million acre-foot total river limit, the QSA secured and stabilized MWD’s baseline water rights. It granted MWD reliable access to dry-year water transfers from agricultural areas (like the Palo Verde Valley) and canal-lining projects. This reliably safeguards the water supply for more than 12 million urban Southern Californians outside of San Diego. 8

• The San Luis Rey Indian Settlement Parties (Native Tribes)

A crucial portion of the water saved from the All-American and Coachella canal lining projects was legally designated for five San Diego-area Native American tribes. These included the La Jolla Band of LuiseƱo Indians, Pala Band of Mission Indians, Pauma Band of LuiseƱo Indians, Rincon Band of LuiseƱo Indians, and the San Pasqual Band of Mission Indians. For decades, these tribes had been locked in a fierce federal water rights dispute with local cities. The QSA permanently resolved this by allocating 16,000 acre-feet of water per year from the canal lining projects to these tribes and their partner cities of Escondido and Vista. 9