January 2026

Click the link to access the report on the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health website (Madani K., Mir Matin, Aria Farsi, Luying Wang, Amir AghaKouchak, Mohammed Azhar, Jenna Elshurafa, Sogol Jafarzadeh, Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi, Ali Mirchi, Abraham Nunbogu, Mojtaba Sadegh, Robert Sandford, Manoochehr Shirzaei, William Smyth, Hossein Tabari, MJ Tourian, Farshid Vahedifard).

Global water bankruptcy in brief

• The planet has entered the Global Water Bankruptcy era. In many basins and aquifers, long-term water use has exceeded renewable inflows and safe depletion limits, and parts of the water and natural capital—rivers, lakes, aquifers, wetlands, soils, and glaciers—have been damaged beyond realistic prospects of full recovery.
• Billions remain water insecure. Nearly three-quarters of the world’s population lives in countries classified as water-insecure or critically water-insecure. Around 2.2 billion people still lack safely managed drinking water, 3.5 billion lack safely managed sanitation, and about 4 billion experience severe water scarcity for at least one month a year.
• Surface waters are shrinking at scale. A growing number of major rivers now fail to reach the sea or fall below environmental flow needs for significant parts of the year. More than half of the world’s large lakes have lost water since the early 1990s, affecting around one-quarter of the global population that depends directly on them for water security.
• Wetlands have been liquidated on a continental scale. Over the past five decades, the world has lost roughly 410 million hectares of natural wetlands—almost the land area of the European Union—including an estimated 177 million hectares of inland marshes and swamps, roughly the size of Libya or seven times the area of the United Kingdom. The loss of ecosystem services from these wetlands is valued at over US$5.1 trillion, roughly equivalent to the combined annual GDP of about 135 of the world’s poorest countries.
• Groundwater depletion and land subsidence are widespread and often irreversible. Groundwater now provides about 50% of global domestic water use and over 40% of irrigation water, tying both drinking water security and food production directly to rapidly depleting aquifers. Around 70% of the world’s major aquifers show long-term declining trends.
• Excessive groundwater extraction has already contributed to significant land subsidence over more than 6 million square kilometers—almost 5% of the global land area—including over 200,000 square kilometers of urban and densely populated zones where close to 2 billion people live. In some locations, land is sinking by up to 25 centimeters per year, permanently reducing storage capacity and increasing flood risk.
• Cryosphere loss is liquidating critical “water savings”. The world, in multiple locations, has already lost more than 30% of its glacier mass since 1970. Several low- and mid-latitude mountain ranges risk losing functional glaciers within decades, undermining the long-term security of hundreds of millions of people who rely on glacier- and snowmelt-fed rivers for drinking water, irrigation, and hydropower.
• Agricultural heartlands are running down their water capital. Roughly 70% of global freshwater withdrawals are used for agriculture. Around 3 billion people and more than half of the world’s food production are located.
• in areas where total water storage—including surface water, soil moisture, snow, ice, and groundwater—is already declining or unstable. More than 170 million hectares of irrigated cropland—roughly the combined land area of France, Spain, Germany and Italy—are under high or very high water stress.
• Land and soil degradation are amplifying water-related risks. More than half of global agricultural land is now moderately or severely degraded, reducing soil moisture retention and pushing drylands toward desertification. Salinization alone has degraded roughly 82 million hectares of rainfed cropland and 24 million hectares of irrigated cropland—together more than 100 million hectares of cropland—eroding yields in some of the world’s key breadbaskets.
• Drought is increasingly anthropogenic and extremely costly. Over 1.8 billion people were living under drought conditions in 2022–2023. Drought-related damages, intensified by land degradation, groundwater depletion and climate change rather than rainfall deficits alone, already amount to about US$307 billion per year worldwide—larger than the annual GDP of almost three-quarters of UN Member States.
• Water quality degradation is shrinking the truly usable resource base. In many basins, pollution from untreated or inadequately treated wastewater, agricultural runoff, industrial and mining effluents, and salinization means that a growing share of water is no longer safe or economically viable for drinking, food production or ecosystems—even where nominal volumes have not yet declined dramatically.
• The planetary freshwater boundary has been transgressed. Global evidence shows that two important elements of the freshwater cycle—“blue water” (surface and groundwater) and “green water” (soil moisture)—have been pushed beyond a safe operating space, alongside planetary boundaries for climate, biosphere integrity, and land systems.
• Existing governance and agendas are no longer fit for purpose. In many basins, the sum of legal water rights, informal expectations and development promises far exceeds degraded hydrological carrying capacity in the absence of effective governance institutions to address water bankruptcy. The current global agenda focused primarily on WASH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene), incremental efficiency gains and generic IWRM (Integrated Water Resources Management) prescriptions is insufficient to address structural overshoot, irreversibility and the rising risks of social instability and conflict associated with water bankruptcy.

Executive Summary

Water is the quiet infrastructure of everything the United Nations cares about: human security and prosperity, food and energy security, biodiversity, environmental resilience, public health, climate stability, and peace. The UN Sustainable

Development Goal 6 (SDG 6) captures this centrality by committing the world to ensuring the availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all. Yet, the world is still very far from meeting SDG 6. About 2.2 billion people still lack safely managed drinking water, 3.5 billion lack safely managed sanitation, and about 4 billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least one month per year. Nearly 75% of the world’s population lives in countries classified as water-insecure or critically water-insecure with progress toward SDG 6 is far off track for 2030. These figures indicate that water-related risks are now systemic rather than marginal.

For decades, the global policy and science communities have warned of an escalating “water crisis” and called for accelerated action to avert it. Those warnings were not wrong, but they are now incomplete. The language of crisis—suggesting a temporary emergency followed by a return to normal through mitigation efforts—no longer captures what is happening in many parts of the world. This report by the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) on the 30th anniversary of its inception responds to this gap by offering a new, more precise diagnosis and recommendations for a new governance agenda fitting the water realities of the Anthropocene in the 21st century. The report is a wake-up call and an open invitation to the policy community to use water as a powerful bridge to promote cooperation to address some of the most critical security, peace, justice, development, and sustainability challenges of our time.

The central message of this report is direct: the world has entered the era of Global Water Bankruptcy. In many regions, human–water systems are already in a post-crisis state of failure. Over decades, societies have withdrawn more water than climate and hydrology can reliably provide, drawing down not only the annual “income” of renewable flows but also the “savings” stored in aquifers, glaciers, soils, wetlands, and river ecosystems. At the same time, pollution, salinization, and other forms of water quality degradation have reduced the fraction of water that is safely usable.

The consequences of water bankruptcy are now visible on every continent: rivers that no longer reach the sea; lakes, wetlands, and glaciers that have shrunk or disappeared; aquifers pumped down until land subsides and salt intrudes; forests and peatlands drying and burning; deserts and dust storms expanding, and cities repeatedly brought to the brink of “Day Zero.” These are not simply signs of stress or episodes of crisis. They are symptoms of systems that have overspent their hydrological budget and eroded the natural capital that once made recovery possible, with knock-on effects for food prices, employment, migration and geopolitical stability.

The report calls for the recognition of the state of ‘Water bankruptcy’ as a persistent post-crisis condition of a human–water system in which long-term water use has exceeded renewable inflows and safe depletion limits, causing irreversible or effectively irreversible degradation such that previous levels of water supply and ecosystem functions cannot realistically be restored. In a bankruptcy state, some damages are physically irreparable on human time scales: compacted aquifers do not rebound, subsided deltas do not rise, extinct species do not return, and lost lakes cannot be restored within planning horizons. Others are technically reversible only at costs so high, or over periods so long, that they are effectively irreversible for policy and planning purposes. This is what distinguishes water bankruptcy from two better-known states: water stress, where high pressure still allows recovery, and water crisis, where an acute, time-bound shock can in principle be overcome.

Water bankruptcy is not only about the ‘insolvency’ of the system but also about its ‘irreversibility’. The shift from crisis to bankruptcy has profound implications for how the world approaches both mitigation and adaptation. Crisis management is essentially restorative: it aims to survive a shock and get back to the previous normal, often through mitigation efforts, short-term emergency measures, and supply-side fixes. Bankruptcy management is different. In finance, declaring bankruptcy is the precondition for a fresh, more sustainable start: debts are recognized, claims are written down, and a new balance sheet is constructed to prevent further collapse. In the same way, managing water bankruptcy calls for a transformational fresh start in human–water relations. It demands a deliberate combination of efforts for mitigation plus adaptation to new hydrological and environmental normals.

Bankruptcy management acknowledges the failure of the current development system and water management model and irreversibility of some damages, while recognizing the urgency of preventing additional damages through transformative reforms. Mitigation attempts seek not only to restore the lost past but also to avoid pushing more basins into bankruptcy and to slow the erosion of remaining water-related natural capital. In the meantime, adaptation efforts are focused on functioning more efficiently within tighter hydrologic incremental efficiency gains and generic IWRM limits through reconfigured economics, governance prescriptions—is no longer fit for purpose in the institutions, and development models, while Anthropocene or for an era of growing geopolitical recognizing non-stationary climatic and changed tensions and stalled multilateral processes. It environmental conditions.

The report reframes the water governance for achieving the goals of the Rio Conventions challenge for a post-crisis era. Rather than asking and the 2030 Agenda, aligning local and national only how to avoid a future water crisis, it asks what it priorities with global climate, biodiversity and means to govern human–water systems on a water-land commitments, and offering common ground bankrupt planet: how to admit insolvency where it between the Global North and Global South as exists; how to manage irreversibility honestly; how well as between rural and urban, left and right to share unavoidable losses fairly; and how to design constituencies. It proposes that water be used as institutions, development pathways, and financial a bridge between fragmented policy arenas and frameworks that prevent further overspending of a divided world, helping to re-energize stalled hydrological capital and damage to the underlying negotiations on the triple planetary crisis. The natural capital.

The report emphasizes that water bankruptcy is also “Water for Sustainable Development” in 2028, a justice, security and political economy challenge. and the 2030 deadline for SDG 6 are identified as Water bankruptcy management must therefore critical milestones for embedding water-bankruptcy be explicitly equity-oriented: securing basic diagnostics, monitoring frameworks and just-human needs and critical services; safeguarding transition support into global governance. environmental flows; providing compensation and social protection where livelihoods must change; and strengthening grievance and conflict resolution mechanisms at local, national, and transboundary levels. Without this justice lens, necessary reforms risk fueling social unrest and undermining the political viability of transitions.

Finally, the report situates Global Water Bankruptcy within the wider multilateral landscape and the realities of a fragmented world. It argues that the current global water agenda—focused primarily on safe drinking water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), incremental efficiency gains and generic IWRM limits through reconfigured economics, governance prescriptions—is no longer fit for purpose in the institutions, and development models, while Anthropocene or for an era of growing geopolitical recognizing non-stationary climatic and changed tensions and stalled multilateral processes. It environmental conditions. calls for a new water agenda that recognizes water as both a constraint and an opportunity sector The report reframes the water governance for achieving the goals of the Rio Conventions challenge for a post-crisis era. Rather than asking and the 2030 Agenda, aligning local and national only how to avoid a future water crisis, it asks what it priorities with global climate, biodiversity and means to govern human–water systems on a water-land commitments, and offering common ground bankrupt planet: how to admit insolvency where it between the Global North and Global South as exists; how to manage irreversibility honestly; how well as between rural and urban, left and right to share unavoidable losses fairly; and how to design constituencies. It proposes that water be used as institutions, development pathways, and financial a bridge between fragmented policy arenas and frameworks that prevent further overspending of a divided world, helping to re-energize stalled hydrological capital and damage to the underlying negotiations on the triple planetary crisis. The natural capital. upcoming UN Water Conferences in 2026 and 2028, the conclusion of the International Decade for Action The report emphasizes that water bankruptcy is also “Water for Sustainable Development” in 2028, a justice, security and political economy challenge. and the 2030 deadline for SDG 6 are identified as Water bankruptcy management must therefore critical milestones for embedding water-bankruptcy be explicitly equity-oriented: securing basic diagnostics, monitoring frameworks and just-transition support into global governance.

This UNU-INWEH report is not another warning about a crisis that might arrive in the future. It is a declaration that the world is already living beyond its hydrological means and that many human–water systems are operating in a state of water bankruptcy. Recognizing this post-crisis reality is not an act of resignation; it is the starting point for a more honest, science-based and justice-oriented agenda that uses mitigation and adaptation to build a fresh, more sustainable balance between societies and the water on which they depend—before the remaining natural capital is lost.

Key Policy Messages

• The world is already in the state of “water bankruptcy”. In many basins and aquifers, long-term overuse and degradation mean that past hydrological and ecological baselines cannot realistically be restored. While not every basin or country is water-bankrupt, enough critical systems around the world have crossed these thresholds—and are interconnected through trade, migration, climate feedbacks, and geopolitical dependencies—that the global risk landscape is now fundamentally altered.
• The familiar language of “water stress” and “water crisis” is no longer adequate. Stress describes high pressure that is still reversible; crisis describes acute, time-bound shocks. Water bankruptcy must be recognized as a distinct post-crisis state, where accumulated damage and overshoot have undermined the system’s capacity to recover.
• Water bankruptcy management must address insolvency and irreversibility. Unlike financial bankruptcy management, which deals only with insolvency, managing water bankruptcy is concerned with rebalancing demand and supply under conditions where returning to baseline conditions is no longer possible.
• Anthropogenic drought is central to the world’s new water reality. Drought and water shortage are increasingly driven by human activities—over-allocation, groundwater depletion, land and soil degradation, deforestation, pollution, and climate change—rather than natural variability alone. Water bankruptcy is the outcome of long-term anthropogenic drought, not just bad luck with hydrological anomalies. Water bankruptcy is about both quantity and quality. Declining stocks, polluted rivers, and degrading aquifers, and salinized soils mean that the truly usable fraction of available water is shrinking, even where total volumes may appear stable.
• Managing water bankruptcy requires a shift from crisis management to bankruptcy management. The priority is no longer to “get back to normal”, but to prevent further irreversible damage, rebalance rights and claims within degraded carrying capacities, transform water-intensive sectors and development models, and support just transitions for those most affected.
• Governance institutions must protect both water and its underlying natural capital. The existing institutions focus on protecting water as a good or service disregarding the natural capital that makes water available in the first place. Efforts to protect a product are ineffective when the processes that produce it are disrupted. Recognizing water bankruptcy calls for developing legal and governance institutions that can effectively protect not only water but also the hydrological cycle and natural capital that make its production possible.
• Water bankruptcy is a justice and security issue. The costs of overshoot and irreversibility fall disproportionately on smallholder farmers, rural and Indigenous communities, informal urban residents, women, youth, and downstream users, while benefits have often accrued to more powerful actors. How societies manage water bankruptcy will shape social cohesion, political stability, and peace.
• Water bankruptcy management combines mitigation with adaptation. While water crisis management paradigms seek to return the system to normal conditions through mitigation efforts only, water bankruptcy management focuses on restoring what is possible and preventing further damages through mitigation combined with adaptation to new normals and constraints.
• The world has an untapped, strategic opportunity to capitalize on water as a powerful bridge in a fragmented world. Water can align national priorities with international priorities and improve cooperation between and within nations. Roughly 70% of global freshwater withdrawals are used for agriculture, much of it by farmers in the Global South. Elevating water in global policy debates can help rebuild trust not only between the Global South and Global North, but also within countries—bridging rural and urban communities and easing polarization across left and right constituencies.
• Water must be recognized as an upstream sector. Most national and international policy agendas treat water as a downstream impact sector where investments are focused on mitigating the imposed problems and externalities. The world must recognize water as an upstream opportunity sector where investments have long-term benefits for peace, stability, security, equity, economy, health, and the environment.
• Water is an effective medium to fulfill the global environmental agenda. Investments in addressing water bankruptcy deliver major co-benefits for the global efforts to address its environmental problems while addressing the national security (e.g., employment, national stability, and food security) concerns of the UN member states. Elevating water in the global policy agenda can renew international cooperation, increase the efficiency of environmental investments, and reaccelerate the halted progress of the three Rio Conventions to address climate change, biodiversity loss, and desertification.
• A new global water agenda is urgently needed. Existing agendas and conventional water policies—focused mainly on WASH, incremental efficiency gains and generic IWRM guidelines—are not sufficient for the world’s current water reality. A fresh water agenda must be developed that takes Global Water Bankruptcy as a starting point and uses the 2026 and 2028 UN Water Conferences, the conclusion of the Water Action Decade (2028), and the 2030 SDG 6 timeline as milestones for resetting how the world understands and governs water.

Click the link to read the article on the Circle of Blue website (Brett Walton):

January 20, 2026

The planet’s water reserves are overstretched and polluted, pushing the warming world into a dangerous condition of “water bankruptcy,” argues a new UN University report.

This is not an alarm bell for the future, the report states. Bankruptcy is present today. For water, the world is living beyond its means, draining its underground savings accounts, degrading its ecological foundations, and watching its rain and snow become less reliable and evaporate as the planet warms.

“Bankruptcy tells us that we already have passed this stage of a crisis and are already in a failure mode,” said Kaveh Madani, the report’s lead author. [ed. emphasis mine]

The report favors monetary metaphors – savings accounts, cash flows, insolvency – to explain the state of the world’s water. A business files for bankruptcy when its liabilities are greater than its assets and it needs to restructure. The owners, in other words, admit that their business model has failed and current practices cannot continue.

The planet requires a similar reckoning for water, Madani argued. It is not enough to acknowledge that the planet’s water accounts – its aquifers, lakes, rivers, wetlands, and glaciers – are being drained. Leaders must recognize that new operating rules and ecological guardrails are necessary for life on a hotter planet in which water extraction has been the governing principle for decades.

“When we see insolvency combined with irreversibility, that defines the concept of water bankruptcy,” said Madani, who is also director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment, and Health.

Madani calls this a “post-crisis” mindset – not attempting to resurrect a failed system but instead developing a relationship to water that prioritizes adaptability to an unstable environment while also ensuring justice for the world’s vulnerable people. Admitting failure and changing course, he said, is a way “to protect the future.”

The report details a planet that has veered off the rails. Thirty percent of global glacier mass has melted since the 1970s. In the same period, the world has plowed or drained more than a billion acres of wetlands, an area equal to the European Union. Seventy percent of the world’s major aquifers are in long-term decline. Water extraction from aquifers and rivers accelerated after the Second World War, and 70 percent of the supply goes into irrigated agriculture.

The loss of water in those savings accounts, when paired with other risks, presents a more worrisome picture, Madani said. Pollutants from industry, agriculture, and untreated human waste reduce the amount of high-quality water. Soils are degraded and accumulating salts. The number of water conflicts is rising. Rural water shortages have prompted an exodus toward cities. Meanwhile, inadequate infrastructure investment means that 2.1 billion people do not have clean water at home and 3.4 billion do not have safe sanitation.

It is perhaps not surprising that the Eurasia Group named water conflict as one of its top political risks of 2026.

Madani, who was deputy head of Iran’s environment department in 2017-18, has been using the bankruptcy language since at least 2021 to describe his home country’s dire water situation. Tehran, whose reservoirs are frightfully low, is the latest city to face the prospect of a Day Zero scenario of dry taps.

To reduce the risk of conflict and shortages, the report recommends a wholesale restructuring. Governments could trim water rights and water claims to more align demand with supply and rebuild institutions that allow for continuous adjustment in an unstable environment. Madani acknowledged that reforms at such scale will not be easy, but they ought to be embraced widely because all areas face risks.

“What matters is how you manage your budget, not how rich you are,” he said. “So you can be poor and not get bankrupt and you can be very rich and get bankrupt if you don’t adjust your lifestyle according to your budget.”

All of these changes need to be rooted in justice, argued Madani, who sees a world cleaved in two. Richer areas with diversified economies are better positioned to withstand water shocks. California, for example, which weathered a deep drought in 2014-15. On the other side are poorer societies whose livelihoods are inseparable from farming. Water shortages hit these areas hard. Madani said economic transformation toward less water-intensive jobs is essential for social, political, and ecological durability.

Despite the daunting outlook, Madani views bankruptcy as a fresh start and a way to position water as a bridge-building issue that crosses political chasms.

“We are not naive about the problems of the international world or the diplomatic world,” Madani said. “But at the same time, we think that it is possible to think about water differently, to tell stories that are different, to tell stories that are less dividing, if they are more inclusive and are reflective of the concerns of the Global South, and if we do so, then we can earn their trust and bring them to the negotiations table and do a better job together.”

Click the link to read the article on the Sky-Hi News website (Ryan Spencer). Here’s an excerpt:

January 17, 2026

Colorado’s statewide snowpack has again hit record-lows, and could remain there for several days as the state is expected to enter a dry spell until the last week of January. Colorado Assistant State Climatologist Peter Goble described the snow season as “a bummer so far.” With each passing day that this low-snow trend continues, Goble said the less likely it becomes that the state will see enough snow to dig itself out of its snowpack deficit.

“It’s likely to get worse before it gets better,” he said. “We’re starting to look at the rest of the snow season and see a limited runway for improvements. It’s not impossible, but it’s not probable either.” [ed. emphasis mine]

The snowpack statewide has sat at the zeroth percentile, meaning it’s the worst on record, since Wednesday, and remained there as of Friday, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Snow Telemetry or SNOTEL program. It’s at least the third time the statewide snowpack has hit record-lows so far this season. The snowpack also hit record-lows in late November and late December. Midway into January, Colorado is “rapidly approaching the halfway point of a normal snow season,” Goble said. With most forecasts calling for little-to-no snow for at least the next seven days, he said it is likely the state will enter February at or near record lows…As of Friday, Colorado’s snowpack sat at 4.8 inches of snow-water equivalent, more than 3 inches below the median of 7.1 inches that is more typical of this time of year, according to SNOTEL data. Statewide, the median peak snowpack has occurred on April 8, with a snow-water equivalent of 16.7 inches. While it is too early to call this winter the worst in Colorado’s history, the state is “not keeping good company at this point in the season,” Goble said. The snow-water equivalent so far this season is about an inch below where it was during the 2011-12 season, which was one of the worst winters in the 21st century. The season so far is more comparable to the winters of 1980-81 and 1976-77, which is often considered the worst winter in Colorado history. Since Colorado’s SNOTEL system wasn’t fully built out in those years, it is hard to make direct comparisons to those historically poor snow years, Goble said. Notably, the winter of 1980-81 saw a significant amount of snow later in the year, and ended the season far better than it started. While he said he is hopeful this season will see significant late-season snow, it is far from certain.

Click the link to read the article on The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel website (Dennis Webbs). Here’s an excerpt:

January 14 2026

Colorado’s snowpack levels remain meager so far this winter season, with little moisture in the near-term local forecast in a year when water managers can scarcely afford a poor spring runoff season due to low storage levels downstream in Lake Powell. The state’s snowpack stood at 63% of median as of Tuesday, according to the federal Natural Resources Conservation Service. Levels range from 76-77% in some basins in far-northern Colorado to 58% in the Colorado River headwaters and just 50% in the Arkansas River basin. The Gunnison River Basin is at 63% of median.

The NRCS said in a news release that warm and dry conditions have led to the below-normal snowpack conditions. Climatologist Allie Mazurek with The Colorado Climate Center said in a December blog post that September-November was the fourth-warmest on record for that period for Colorado, with November in specific being third-warmest on record. Some Western Slope locations had their warmest fall on record, Mazurek wrote. The conditions have challenged ski resorts that have opened later, and with limited terrain. But Powderhorn Mountain Resort announced Saturday that it would be boosting its operations through the opening of its West End Lift the following day, following a 15-inch storm and cooler temperatures that allowed around-the-clock snowmaking.

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

It was a more active week nationwide, with significant precipitation across the central Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. Parts of Mississippi and Alabama received more than 5 inches of rain. In the Plains and Midwest, much of the precipitation fell as rain rather than snow due to unseasonably warm temperatures. Portions of the Southwest and central Rocky Mountains also received beneficial rain and snow, slowing drought intensification and leading to localized improvements. Temperatures were warmer than normal across most of the country, with near- to slightly below-normal temperatures limited to the West and Southwest. The largest departures occurred in the upper Midwest and northern Plains, where temperatures were 15–20°F above normal…

High Plains

Above-normal precipitation occurred across eastern Colorado, Kansas, and southeast Nebraska, falling primarily as rain and infiltrating soils due to warm temperatures. Much of the rest of the region remained dry. Temperatures were 10–15°F above normal across most areas, with parts of the Dakotas and eastern Montana 15–20°F above normal. Southeast Colorado was the only area near to below normal. Abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions improved in southeast Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and parts of south-central Colorado. Drought expanded across eastern Wyoming, west-central South Dakota, and northeast Colorado…

West

Above-normal precipitation occurred across southeast Arizona, western and central New Mexico, parts of Colorado, and western Washington. Temperatures were mixed, with California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico up to 5°F below normal, while northern areas were 5–10°F above normal and parts of central Montana 15–20°F above normal. Most drought changes reflected improvement, including moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions in western Montana and central Idaho, severe drought in western Colorado, and severe to extreme drought in eastern Arizona, western New Mexico, eastern Nevada, and western Utah. However, drought expanded in southwest Idaho and northern Nevada, extreme and exceptional drought expanded in central Colorado, and abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions expanded across much of eastern Wyoming…

South

Temperatures were above normal across nearly the entire region, with departures of 9–12°F above normal in the east and 6–9°F above normal across Texas and Oklahoma. Northern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and eastern Tennessee, and southeast Arkansas received well above-normal precipitation, with southern Mississippi recording 200–400% of normal. Central and southern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and Arkansas remained largely dry. Drought improvements occurred across Mississippi, southern Louisiana, and eastern Tennessee, including improvements to severe drought in northwest Mississippi and northern Louisiana. In contrast, drought expanded across much of Arkansas and eastern and southern Texas. Extreme drought expanded across south Texas, with a new area in northeast Texas. Moderate and severe drought also expanded across east Texas into Arkansas, while abnormally dry conditions increased in central Texas and western Oklahoma. Severe drought expanded from eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee…

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days, much of the western half of the U.S. is anticipated to be dry from the West into the Plains. The wettest areas are anticipated to be over the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast. At the end of the period, there could be some coastal precipitation in portions of south and east Texas as well as Louisiana. Temperatures during this time are anticipated to well above normal over the West, with departures of 10-13°F above normal from Nevada into Utah and Wyoming. Cooler-than-normal temperatures will be commonplace over the eastern half of the country, with the greatest departures over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes with departures of 10-13°F normal. The below-normal temperatures will migrate all the way into the South, with portions of the Southeast and Florida 6-9°F below normal.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the likelihood of above-normal temperatures over much of the Southwest and southern Plains. The best chances of below-normal temperatures will be over the upper Midwest and into the Northeast. From the northern Plains into the Southeast and Florida and areas east of here have the best chances of below normal temperatures. Precipitation is expected to be below normal over Florida and the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest. The best chances of above-normal precipitation are anticipated over the Tennessee Valley as well as over the Rocky Mountains and into the Southwest.

Just for grins here’s a slideshow of early January US Drought Monitor maps for the past few years.

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:

January 13, 2026

Annual Key Points:

• For the first time since 2015, no hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. or its territories during 2025.
• The tornado in Enderlin, North Dakota, was the first verified EF-5 since 2013.
• The Eaton and Palisades Fires were the second- and third-most destructive California wildfires on record, respectively.
• The Texas Hill Country experienced a 1-in-100- to 1-in-1,000-year flood event that killed at least 135 people after nearly two feet of rain fell in just a few days.
• Utah and Nevada set new annual temperature records, with Utah eclipsing its previous record that had stood since 1934.

Other Highlights:

Temperature

Annual temperatures across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) averaged 54.6°F in 2025, which was 2.6°F above the 20th-century average and ranked as the fourth-warmest year in the 131-year record. Temperatures were above average nationwide, with the most pronounced warmth across the western third of the country. Averaged across the entire region from the West Coast through the Rocky Mountains, this area recorded its warmest annual temperature on record.

Based on average annual temperatures across NOAA climate regions, the Southwest saw its warmest year on record; the West and Northwest both ranked third warmest, and the South tied for its fourth-warmest year. Statewide, Utah and Nevada recorded their warmest years on record at 4.3°F and 3.7°F above their 20th-century averages, respectively. In total, a dozen states experienced one of their four warmest years. At the county level, 62 counties across 10 states—more than eight million people—recorded their warmest year on record.

Annual temperatures in Alaska averaged 29.5°F, 3.5°F above the 1925–2000 average, ranking as the ninth warmest in the 101-year record. Much-above-average temperatures persisted through most of the year, producing the third-warmest January–November statewide, though a notably cold December lowered the annual ranking.

Hawaiʻi recorded an average annual temperature of 67.0°F, 0.7°F above the 1991–2020 average, placing the year within the warmest third of the 35-year record.

Precipitation 

The CONUS received an average of 29.19 inches of precipitation in 2025, 0.73 inch below the 20th-century average, placing the year in the driest third of the 131-year record. The annual average does not fully reflect some of the pronounced regional wet and dry patterns seen throughout the year: the western U.S. experienced drier-than-average conditions in the first half of the year, followed by wetter-than-average conditions late in the year, while central and eastern regions generally saw above-average precipitation in spring and early summer, then below-average totals in the fall.

Much of the Southwest and Southeast ended the year below average, with deficits exceeding one foot in parts of the Southeast, while the central and northern Plains, along with the western Ohio Valley, were wetter than average. Kentucky had its 10th-wettest year on record, with over a third of its counties receiving more than a foot above their average annual rainfall.

Alaska received 39.72 inches of precipitation in 2025, 3.02 inches above average, placing the year within the wettest third of the 101-year record. Hawaiʻi recorded a total of 41.96 inches, 19.77 inches below average for the state, or about 68 percent of normal (1991–2020), marking its third-driest year in the 35-year record.

Tropical Cyclones

Despite the lack of U.S. landfalls in 2025, the North Atlantic hurricane season was active, producing 13 named storms, including five hurricanes and four major hurricanes; this amount was near the long-term average. The season was particularly notable for three Category 5 hurricanes—Erin, Humberto and Melissa—the second-most to form in a single year. While Erin and Humberto remained offshore, Hurricane Melissa made landfall on Jamaica at peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph—tying with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane as the strongest landfall on record in the Atlantic Basin and ranking as the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide in 2025. Although no direct landfalls occurred, remnants of tropical systems—including Super Typhoon Halong (Alaska) and Hurricane Priscilla (Southwest)—brought flooding impacts to the U.S. late in the year.

Floods

2025 was characterized by widespread and significant flooding, driven by a combination of atmospheric rivers, slow-moving convective systems and tropical moisture. Significant flood events were observed in every season and region; July alone recorded 1,434 flash flood warnings from the National Weather Service—the second-highest July total in 40 years. Several historic precipitation events overwhelmed infrastructure, producing 1-in-1,000-year rainfall recurrence intervals in parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina and Texas. These events resulted in significant loss of life; catastrophic flooding in the Texas Hill Country in July resulted in at least 135 fatalities, while recurring storms in the Ohio Valley and severe weather across the South contributed to dozens of additional fatalities throughout the year.

The year featured stark regional extremes, beginning and ending with strong atmospheric rivers that impacted the West Coast; notable events in February, November and December caused widespread damage and fatalities in California and the Pacific Northwest. In the interior, stalled spring fronts produced historic rainfall across the Lower Ohio Valley, while summer saw a shift to the Northeast, where record-breaking rainfall rates inundated the New York City metro area. Unique hydrological extremes also marked the year, including a record-breaking glacial outburst flood in Alaska, tsunami-induced flooding in Hawaiʻi and deadly flash floods over wildfire burn scars in New Mexico.

Tornadoes

The preliminary U.S. tornado count for 2025 was 1,559, ranking as the fifth-highest on record and 127 percent of the 30-year (1991–2020) average. The year was marked by several notable extremes, including 300 preliminary tornado reports in March—a new March record—more than three times average. In addition to the Enderlin EF-5 tornado, five EF-4 tornadoes occurred in Arkansas, Louisiana, Illinois and Kentucky. At the state level, North Dakota shattered its previous annual tornado record of 61 (set in 2010), with 72 tornado reports in 2025.

Wildfires

The number of wildfires in 2025 was approximately 105 percent of the 20-year (2001–20) average, with more than 72,000 wildfires reported. The total number of acres burned from these wildfires—5.0 million acres—was 72 percent of the 20-year average of nearly seven million acres.

Southern California experienced some of the year’s most destructive fires. Fueled by Santa Ana winds gusting up to 90 miles per hour and dry conditions, the Eaton Fire burned 14,000 acres, while the Palisades Fire burned more than 23,000 acres and was the most destructive wildfire on record for Los Angeles. Together, these fires damaged or destroyed over 18,000 structures during January and were responsible for 31 fatalities. Later in the year, the Gifford Fire became the largest wildfire for California in 2025, burning over 131,000 acres across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties in August.

In Arizona, the Dragon Bravo Fire burned more than 145,000 acres between July and September, making it the largest wildfire of the year in the U.S. and the 10th-largest in Arizona history.

Alaska had a below-average 2025 wildfire season, with approximately one million acres burned—about two-thirds of the state’s 20-year (2001–20) average.

Drought

The drought footprint across the CONUS experienced marked fluctuations during 2025, following a distinct pattern of spring expansion, early summer contraction and autumn resurgence. The year began with 38.1 percent of the lower 48 states in moderate to exceptional drought (D1–D4). Coverage expanded steadily through March, reaching a spring peak of 44.7 percent on March 25. Widespread precipitation then drove a substantial decline, with drought coverage falling to its annual minimum of 29.6 percent by June 3. However, this improvement was short-lived. Drought conditions intensified during late summer and autumn, with coverage increasing rapidly to a yearly maximum of 46.1 percent on October 21 and again on November 18. By the final week of the year (December 30), drought coverage had eased slightly but remained elevated at 42.8 percent, leaving a larger portion of the country in drought than at the start of 2025.

Snowfall

The 2024–25 snow season featured above-average snowfall across parts of the mountainous West, central Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast and Ohio Valley, while below-average snowfall occurred across much of the Great Basin, southern Rockies, northern Plains, Upper Midwest and portions of the Northeast.

The 2025–26 snowfall season to date (October 1–December 31, 2025) saw above-average snowfall across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes region, with lake-effect areas receiving more than a foot above average for this period. In contrast, much of the Mountain West and High Plains received lower-than-average snowfall, particularly the Cascades, Wasatch and Uinta and the northern and southern Rockies, with the exception of the Sierra Nevada and parts of the northern Cascades, Bitterroots and middle Rockies. 

Climate Extremes Index

The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) for 2025 was 58 percent above average, ranking 12th-highest in the 116-year record. Warm extremes in both maximum and minimum temperatures were above average across the CONUS, as was the extent of exceptionally dry conditions (very low Palmer Drought Severity Index); each of these indicators ranked among the top 10 on record. Several regions had an annual CEI that was much above average, with the Southwest recording its third highest on record.

Warm temperature extremes were widespread in 2025. Extremes in overnight minimums affected more than 85 percent of the West, Northwest and Southwest regions and over half of the CONUS as a whole, while extremes in daytime maximums covered more than three-quarters of those same western regions. The Southwest also recorded its fourth-largest extent of extremely dry conditions on record, with all regions ranking in the driest third historically.

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Check out the comprehensive 2025 Annual U.S. Climate Report. For additional information on the statistics provided here, visit the Climate at a Glance and National Maps webpages.

Click the link to go to the NRCS website to read the report and to drill down to your favorite watershed.

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Caroline Llanes):

January 8, 2026

As guests ski and ride down Schoolmarm, a stretch of beginner-friendly terrain at Keystone Resort in Colorado, they are treated to views of Dillon Reservoir nearly the whole way down. More eagle-eyed skiers and riders will notice that snowmaking machines line the run’s three miles, which spans from summit to base.

On a sunny, cloudless November day, it’s one of the resort’s only accessible ski runs with much of the credit going to those machines. 

“It gives pretty much everybody the ability to ski here on day one,” said Kate Schifani, the resort’s senior director of mountain operations. She says Keystone is super focused on that early opening day.

“We are the first resort in the country to open,” she said, referring to the 2025 season. “So we put a lot of stock in what we can do early-season, and having great snowmaking helps us do that.”

It’s a familiar problem for Rocky Mountain ski resorts over the last 20 years, which have become increasingly prone to scant early season snow. [ed. emphasis mine] Many have chosen to stick with their traditional opening days near the Thanksgiving holiday and take the gamble that snow might arrive in time. To match their guests’ demands for skiable acreage amid a warming climate, resorts are doubling down on snowmaking technology and acquiring the water rights needed to make it happen. 

Winter is off to a slow start across the West this year. Snowpack is below average in every major river basin across the entire region. That’s a concern for ski resorts, many of which have delayed their opening days. That includes Jackson Hole in Wyoming, Alta in Utah, and Beaver Creek, just down the highway from Keystone.

Human-caused climate change has changed the way precipitation falls in the mountains, especially in autumn. As more early season storm clouds bring rain instead of snow, resorts are increasingly relying on snowmaking to give their guests the ability to ski at all. 

But this year, it wasn’t just a lack of snow that caused resorts headaches. November was warm as well, which also affects snowmaking operations. Throughout the Upper Colorado River Basin, temperatures were anywhere from five to eight degrees above average, with much of Utah setting records. Denver logged its warmest November day ever this year.

Schifani said ideally, snowmaking happens when it’s colder than 28 degrees.

“So it’s 32.7 degrees right now,” she said, checking the temperature on a monitor attached to one of the snow guns at the top of the River Run gondola. “So we’re just a little too warm for snowmaking.”

Keystone made upgrades to its snowmaking system in 2019, so all of its guns are relatively new. Each one has a weather system built into it, detecting temperature and relative humidity. They’re all automated, so when it finally drops below 28 degrees, the guns turn on with a loud rumble.

“This gun will know as it gets colder, we can add more water, we can make more snow,” Schifani explained. “As it gets warmer, we cut back on the water, we make a little bit less snow until it gets too warm for us to make snow at all.”

Once it’s cold enough, man-made snow takes about two parts compressed air and one part water. Unlike other uses in the West that transport water over long distances to sprawling cities or faraway farm fields, snowmaking keeps water close to where it originated. 

Steven Fassnacht, a professor of snow hydrology at Colorado State University, said that about 80% of the water used in snowmaking goes back into the watershed it came from.

“[Ski resorts] are taking water out of the river, out of a reservoir … and they’re putting it on the mountain and they’re storing it somewhere different for the winter,” he said. “So the actual use, we call it consumptive use, the amount of water that leaves the system is relatively small.”

But that use still matters in a region where every drop of water is accounted for. Fassnacht said it will matter even more as the region’s climate gets warmer and drier, and as competition for water ramps up. 

“In drier conditions, maybe that water use — possibly, likely — that consumptive use is actually going to increase,” he said. “And it may be harder to actually get that water out of the system to put on the mountains.”

Ski areas’ water usage can get contentious. Telluride Resort is currently in a dispute with the town of Mountain Village over its water use, and a federal court recently dismissed a lawsuit from Purgatory, a resort near Durango, over accessing decades-old groundwater rights on Forest Service land.

Chris Cushing is a principal with the consulting firm SE Group, which works on mountain planning for resorts across the country.

He recently worked with Deer Valley in Utah on a massive expansion: the resort added ten new chairlifts and doubled its skiable terrain, which it plans to open this season — with a state of the art snowmaking system. 

“It’s just massive, it’s literally building a new ski resort,” he said of the expansion, which is called East Village.

Cushing says the expansion was only possible because the land acquired by Deer Valley already had water rights allocated to it — a calculation many other resorts he works with are having to factor in their plans as well.

“Absolutely the first question I ask is, ‘what’s your water situation?’” he said.

Long-term drought means ski resorts aren’t just in the game of acquiring new supplies, but also how to make the water they do have go further.

In 2023, Keystone added a new chairlift, providing skiers and riders easier access to its Bergman Bowl, which used to be an area only hikers could reach. Schifani says the resort expanded its snowmaking system to blanket that area at will too.

“But for perspective, that didn’t take any more water than we had previously used because we just got better at using what we already have,” she said.

It’s not yet clear what this winter will bring for the ski industry, but resorts, like other water users across the West, will have to prepare for the reality of doing more with less.

This story was produced in partnership with The Water Desk at the University of Colorado Boulder Center for Environmental Journalism.

Alejandro N. Flores, Boise State University

Much of the western U.S. has started 2026 in the midst of a snow drought. That might sound surprising, given the record precipitation from atmospheric rivers hitting the region in recent weeks, but those storms were actually part of the problem.

To understand this year’s snow drought – and why conditions like this are a growing concern for western water supplies – let’s look at what a snow drought is and what happened when atmospheric river storms arrived in December.

What is a snow drought?

Typically, hydrologists like me measure the snowpack by the amount of water it contains. When the snowpack’s water content is low compared with historical conditions, you’re looking at a snow drought.

A snow drought can delayed ski slope opening dates and cause poor early winter recreation conditions.

It can also create water supply problems the following summer. The West’s mountain snowpack has historically been a dependable natural reservoir of water, providing fresh water to downstream farms, orchards and cities as it slowly melts. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that up to 75% of the region’s annual water supply depends on snowmelt.

Snow drought is different from other types of drought because its defining characteristic is lack of water in a specific form – snow – but not necessarily the lack of water, per se. A region can be in a snow drought during times of normal or even above-normal precipitation if temperatures are warm enough that precipitation falls as rain when snow would normally be expected.

This form of snow drought – known as a warm snow drought – is becoming more prevalent as the climate warms, and it’s what parts of the West have been seeing so far this winter.

How an atmospheric river worsened the snow drought

Washington state saw the risks in early December 2025 when a major atmospheric river storm dumped record precipitation in parts of the Pacific Northwest. Up to 24 inches fell in the Cascade Mountains between Dec. 1 and Dec. 15. The Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at Scripps Oceanographic Institute documented reports of flooding, landslides and damage to several highways that could take months to repair. Five stream gauges in the region reached record flood levels, and 16 others exceeded “major flood” status.

Yet, the storm paradoxically left the region’s water supplies worse off in its wake.

The reason was the double-whammy nature of the event: a large, mostly rainstorm occurring against the backdrop of an uncharacteristically warm autumn across the western U.S.

Atmospheric rivers act like a conveyor belt, carrying water from warm, tropical regions. The December storm and the region’s warm temperatures conspired to produce a large rainfall event, with snow mostly limited to areas above 9,000 feet in elevation, according to data from the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes.

The rainfall melted a significant amount of snow in mountain watersheds, which contributed to the flooding in Washington state. The melting also decreased the amount of water stored in the snowpack by about 50% in the Yakima River Basin over the course of that event.

As global temperatures rise, forecasters expect to see more precipitation falling as rain in the late fall and early spring rather than snow compared with the past. This rain can melt existing snow, contributing to snow drought as well as flooding and landslides.

What’s ahead

Fortunately, it’s still early in the 2026 winter season. The West’s major snow accumulation months are generally from now until March, and the western snowpack could recover.

More snow has since fallen in the Yakima River Basin, which has made up the snow water storage it lost during the December storm, although it was still well below historical norms in early January 2026.

Scientists and water resource managers are working on ways to better predict snow drought and its effects several weeks to months ahead. Researchers are also seeking to better understand how individual storms produce rain and snow so that we can improve snowpack forecasting – a theme of recent work by my research group.

As temperatures warm and snow droughts become more common, this research will be essential to help water resources managers, winter sports industries and everyone else who relies on snow to prepare for the future.

Alejandro N. Flores, Associate Professor of Geoscience, Boise State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Click the link to read the discussion on the NOAA website:

January 8, 2026

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis:  La Niña persists, followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026.

In December 2025, La Niña was reflected in the continuation of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.5°C, with the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices remaining cooler at -0.8°C and -0.7°C, respectively. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) became slightly positive, reflecting the expansion of above-average temperatures from the western to the east-central Pacific at depth. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific Ocean remained consistent with La Niña. For most of the month, easterly wind anomalies were present over the central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued across the equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection persisted over Indonesia and suppressed convection strengthened near the Date Line. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remains consistent with La Niña.

The IRI multi-model predictions indicate ENSO-neutral will emerge during January-March (JFM) 2026. In conjunction with the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, the team favors ENSO-neutral to develop during JFM 2026. Even after equatorial Pacific SSTs transition to ENSO-neutral, La Niña may still have some lingering influence through the early Northern Hemisphere spring 2026 (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). For longer forecast horizons, there are growing chances of El Niño, though there remains uncertainty given the lower accuracy of model forecasts through the spring. In summary, La Niña persists, followed by a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026.

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

The past week featured above-normal temperatures across much of the western half of the U.S. Areas west of the Mississippi River generally experienced near- to above-normal temperatures, with portions of the northern Rocky Mountains running 15–20°F above normal for the week. These warm conditions favored rain over snow, which is critical for winter water supply in the West, and many locations continue to experience a slow start to the snow season.

In contrast, cooler-than-normal temperatures dominated the Florida Peninsula, with departures of 5–10°F below normal across southern Florida. Below-normal temperatures were also widespread from the Upper Midwest into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, where departures of 5°F or more below normal were common. Parts of New England were particularly cold, with temperatures 10–15°F below normal.

Outside of the West, above-normal precipitation was limited to pockets of the Southeast, Florida, and the Upper Midwest. Much of the West recorded more than 100% of normal precipitation for the week, with large portions of California receiving over 200% of normal…

High Plains

Warmer-than-normal temperatures dominated the region, with departures exceeding 15°F above normal across parts of western Nebraska, western Kansas, northeast Colorado, Wyoming, and southeast Montana. Precipitation was minimal, with the greatest totals confined to northeastern North Dakota.

The continued warm and dry winter has resulted in some areas experiencing their driest start to winter on record. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across southern Nebraska and northeast Kansas, as well as southeast Kansas, where moderate drought also increased. Moderate and severe drought expanded across southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, northeast Colorado, and southeast Colorado…

West

The largest positive temperature departures occurred in the West, with areas from central Montana into western Wyoming and northwest Colorado experiencing temperatures more than 15°F above normal. These warm conditions pushed snow to higher elevations and increased rainfall at lower elevations. While many areas received above-normal precipitation, snowpack remains critically low, and significant snow drought persists across numerous mountain ranges, including the Cascades, Oregon’s Blue Mountains, Idaho’s Bitterroot Range, and the central Rocky Mountains of Colorado.

It was a wet week for much of the region, with nearly all of California recording above-normal precipitation, along with much of Nevada and western Arizona. Above-normal precipitation also occurred across eastern Washington and Oregon, Idaho, western Utah, and Montana. Severe and extreme drought improved across northern Montana, with additional improvement to moderate drought in the southwest part of the state.

Continued wet conditions led to improvements in moderate and severe drought across Nevada, Arizona, eastern Oregon and Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. Abnormally dry conditions expanded across northeast New Mexico, while extreme and exceptional drought expanded across central Colorado. Extreme drought was removed from southwest Wyoming, and moderate drought improved across western Wyoming. In Washington, abnormally dry conditions were adjusted to reflect recent precipitation while also accounting for persistent snow drought in the Cascades…

South

Nearly the entire region was dry, with only isolated precipitation observed in Mississippi and southwest Tennessee. Temperatures were above normal across most areas, with portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles running more than 12°F above normal.

Drought conditions deteriorated across every state in the region. Moderate drought expanded across northern and southern Mississippi. Central and eastern Tennessee saw expansion of moderate and severe drought, while moderate drought increased in western Tennessee. Moderate and severe drought expanded across much of Louisiana and southern and western Arkansas. Severe drought expanded in northeast and northwest Arkansas and into northeast Oklahoma. Severe and extreme drought spread from southwest into central Oklahoma, while moderate drought continued to fill in across eastern Oklahoma.

Across Texas, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expanded over much of the Panhandle, while moderate and severe drought grew across east Texas and coastal southeast Texas. Drought conditions continued to intensify in far south Texas…

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days, the pattern over the continental U.S. appears to be active with many areas showing a strong probability of precipitation. Areas from the Central Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes areas are anticipated to receive up to an inch of precipitation. Further south, areas from Louisiana northeast into Kentucky are expected to receive the greatest amount of precipitation with several inches expected. From the Pacific Northwest into the Rocky Mountains and Southwest, widespread precipitation is anticipated. The driest areas are expected to be over the northern Great Plains, California, central and southern Texas and from the Carolinas into the Florida peninsula. Temperatures are expected to remain warmer than normal over much of the country. Only the areas along the southern tier of the U.S. will be near to below normal. The warmest departures are expected over the central to northern Plains, with some areas of Montana predicted to be 10-15 °F above normal.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that the likelihood of above-normal temperatures is projected over almost the entire U.S., with the exception of the Southeast and south Texas. The greatest chances of above-normal temperatures are over the West Coast, as well as the northern Plains and northern Rocky Mountains. The best chances of below-normal precipitation are over the Western U.S. and into the southern Plains. Above-normal chances of above-normal precipitation are anticipated over the central to northern Plains, Florida and along the coast of the Carolinas, as well as Alaska and Hawaii.