Forecasting water supply in a La Niña year

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From the Vail Daily (Lauren Glendenning):

The La Nina weather pattern this coming winter means one thing for sure — there will be unusually cold ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the Equator. The conditions tend to bring wetter than normal conditions across the Pacific Northwest and dryer and warmer than normal conditions across much of the southern tier of the United States. Colorado sits right in the middle, meaning things here could go either way. The last La Nina winter was 2007-08 and brought tons of snow to the valley. Powder days became the norm, but you never would have known it based on some early winter weather predictions that year, though…

[Klaus Wolter, a Boulder-based climatologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] said this coming winter is a “big La Nina year,” but that doesn’t necessarily mean previous La Nina patterns in the area mean anything about what’s to come. “2007-08 was a La Nina that was very beneficial for us, and unfortunately that doesn’t mean it will happen again,” Wolter said…

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s long-range weather prediction for Western Colorado for the upcoming December, January and February months shows a 7.5 percent probability for record high amounts of snowfall, a 30.4 percent chance for above normal snowfall, a 36.1 percent chance for near normal snowfall, a 33.4 percent chance for below normal snowfall and an 8.7 percent chance for record lows of snowfall. Greene said looking at data like that and interpreting it “kind of depends on if you’re a glass half-full or glass half-empty person.”

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