From The Denver Post (Susan Clotfelter):

Every time it rains in Colorado, we tend to forget we live in a high desert. Every time we’re blessed with a cool spring, we tend to forget that come mid-June — or sooner — it’s going to get hot. Summer’s onset reliably brings a bumper crop of ways to save money on energy and water. Here are a few.

1. Maintain your air-conditioning system. If it’s a whole-house unit that relies on your furnace to move cooled air, change furnace filters. Remove the winter cover; trim weeds or grass around the unit, and book a pro to check on the evaporator and condenser, which are usually sealed. Consult websites like howstuffworks.com or familyhandyman.com to clean the parts you can access. Indoors, clean air-return ducts and clear clutter from around them.

2. That ’80s staple, the ceiling fan, can be a great way to keep a space comfortable without turning on the air conditioning. If you’ve got one, turn the reversible switch so that it rotates counterclockwise for the warm season. And hey, while you’re up there? Dust the blades. Clean machinery lives longer.

3. Got energy audit? Sign up for one. Check your utility provider or municipality’s website; some subsidies and bargains remain to be had. A certified pro will visit your home and find your biggest energy (and money) drains and help you fix them. If you got an energy audit done, but haven’t acted on its recommendations yet, pick one of the top three.

4. Use less water. My own energy audit included easy ways to save on this precious Colorado commodity. My auditor installed a kitchen-faucet aerator and a balloon in the tank of my one non-low-flow toilet (which I’ve since replaced).

My top-loading, late ’90s washing machine refuses to die so that I can justify a high-efficiency machine, but I’ve learned to cut back on its use it by combining loads. I also hang most of my laundry to dry, which trims dryer use (and extends the life of my clothes).

5. Waste no water. Sprinkler system? Get it checked, or check it yourself, to fix or adjust any broken or wasteful heads. And check Denver Water’s website (denverwater.org) for water-saving tips that still allow you to have a beautiful summer landscape. You can also use what I call the Thrifty Girl’s Drip Irrigation system: Put a plastic tub in the kitchen sink and a 3- to 5-gallon bucket in the shower to collect the water that runs while you’re waiting for the flow to heat up. Use that water in the garden on shrubs, perennials or larger vegetables by pouring it into a second bucket with three or four quarter-inch holes in the bottom. Put the pierced bucket in the garden to drip-water plants. If you’re fussy about how that looks, paint the bucket.

More conservation coverage here.

Click here to read the report. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

When viewing current statewide totals for all water supply parameters, it would be difficult to find a more “normal” year. With statewide snowpack, water year-to-date precipitation and reservoir storage at 107, 102 and 93 percent normal respectively, conditions are favorable for good water supplies this season. Of course the story is more complex than just the statewide numbers. Although 2014 was not a La Nina year some of the snow accumulation patterns could be construed as such the Upper Rio Grande and the combined San Juan, Animas, Dolores and San Miguel basins in Colorado both have snowpack percentages below 70 percent of median, while significantly better snowpack’s exist in the northern tier basins. All of the northern basins boast snowpack percentages that are greater than 120 percent of median. In general the statewide snowpack trended downward over the course of April falling 8 percentage as a result of below average precipitation in the form of snowfall throughout the month. Although monthly precipitation for the state was just 80 percent of average this April, year-to-date precipitation rounded out at 102 percent of average on May 1. With nearly all reservoirs currently at better standing than last year at this time, it is hard to frown upon the below average storage in the Upper Rio Grande and Arkansas River basins. In addition the vast majority of water supply forecasts for Colorado look to be better than last year based on current data.

Snowpack

Despite a slight decline in the snowpack percent of median during April, statewide snowpack was still 128 percent of last year according to SNOTEL and snow course observations on May 1. The Upper Rio Grande saw the greatest decline in snowpack with a 29 percent drop this month. All major basins saw a decrease this month, yet many remain near to above normal while some are well above normal. With nearly one third of all sub basin snowpack’s at 125 percent of median or better and 19 of 34 sub basins above 100 percent of median, this season is just what was needed to replenish last year’s ailing water supplies in the state’s northern watersheds. In the other regions of the state, the Arkansas and Gunnison basins are fortunate to have snowpack’s at 99 and 97 percent of median respectively, while the “have not” basins include the Upper Rio Grande and the combined San Juan watersheds at 50 and 68 percent of median respectively. The moral of this snow season is: snowpack varies greatly across the state, from 41 percent of median in the combined Conejos & Rio San Antonio watersheds to 169 percent of median in the Muddy Creek drainage in the Colorado River basin. Be sure to look at basins of interest and the sites within for the most concise data to prepare for the year to come.

Precipitation

For the first time since January, monthly precipitation was below average, not just statewide, but in every major basin. Quite similarly to January when monthly precipitation was at 81 percent of average, precipitation this month was 80 percent of average. Thanks to strong accumulations in October, January, February and March, year-to-date precipitation remains slightly above normal at this point. Thankfully the differences in year-to-date precipitation across the state are not as extreme as in the case of snowpack. The Upper Rio Grande basin has the lowest year-to-date total at 80 percent of average, with the only above average month this water year being November. Conversely, the South Platte basin is currently showing year-to-date precipitation at 119 percent of average. In general the precipitation map looks much the same as the snowpack map with better totals in the northern basins, and below average numbers in the south.

Reservoir Storage

With over one half of the states reservoirs currently at 100 percent of average storage or better, and nearly three quarters of the state’s reservoirs at or above 80 percent of average at the end of April, statewide reservoir storage is in fairly good standing. The Arkansas River basin currently has the lowest storage as a percent of average at 59 percent but on a positive note Pueblo Reservoir is right at the 30 year average storage with volumes at 54 percent of capacity. The South Platte River basin has the best storage at 110 percent of average and 90 percent of capacity. With the snowpack in the basin this year it is likely the South Platte reservoirs will reach 100 percent capacity this spring. The vast majority of all reservoirs in the state currently have higher storage levels than at this time last year. For areas with well above normal snowpack’s and projected streamflows, it is often necessary to draft reservoirs to make room for the above normal expected inflows. If reservoir storage is below average in a drainage basin with above to well above normal snowpack the project may be anticipating above average inflows.

Streamflow

Projected streamflows in Colorado are typically a reflection of current snowpack totals and monthly precipitation totals throughout the year, and this month is no exception. Similar to the snowpack reports current forecasts vary widely across the state from 148 percent of the May to July average for the Inflow to Wolford Mountain Reservoir to 16 percent of the May to September average at San Antonio River at Ortiz in the Upper Rio Grande. For the three major watersheds in the north, nearly all streamflow forecasts are calling for above normal runoff this season. Within that same region only three forecast points have forecasts below average; all other points look to have strong water supplies going into the beginning of summer. On the flip side of the state, in the four major southern basins, just over one quarter of the forecasted streamflows are projected to be 100 percent of normal or better. Brightening the scenario further in the south, 24 of the 55 forecast points are projected to be better than 80 percent of average. But with highly variable snowpack across the state forecasts differ greatly as well, be sure to consult the actual forecast information for the most accurate information.

From The Durango Herald (Dale Rodebaugh):

The snowpack as of May 1 in the watersheds drained by the Animas, San Juan, Dolores and San Miguel rivers leaves the southwest corner of Colorado hurting.

At 68 percent of its 30-year median, the amount of snow in the highcountry foretells a sparse runoff.

Only the Rio Grande basin is worse off at 50 percent.

On the flip side, the Colorado, South Platte, North Platte and Yampa/White basins are wallowing in snow. The Yampa/White and Colorado basins have snowpacks that stand at 121 and 122 percent, respectively. The South Platte has 133 percent and the North Platte, 135 percent…

“In general, moisture-laden storms have favored the northern-tier basins throughout 2014,” Domonkos said. “Last month, the Gunnison, Upper Rio Grande and San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan basins were impacted by warmer temperatures and lack of snowfall.”

Overall, however, the state is not doing too badly in regards to reservoir storage, Domonkos said.

Slightly more than 50 percent of state reservoirs stand at 100 percent of average or better and nearly three-quarters of them at 80 percent of average or better, Domonkos said.

Reservoirs catching runoff from the Animas, San Juan, Dolores and San Miguel basins were at 85 percent of average on May 1. Last year on the same date, the reservoirs stood at 64 percent of average.

Statewide, reservoirs hold 93 percent of their average, up from 71 percent on the same 2013 date. Three basins, the Yampa/White, Gunnison and South Platte, hold more than 100 percent of their average – 106, 107 and 110 percent respectively.

River flows in general will be good to excellent, the report says. More than one-half of stream-flow forecast points should have more than 100 percent of their average and nearly two-thirds should have flows of more than 80 percent of average.

But again, Southwest Colorado is the exception, the report says.

“Runoff volumes for May through July are expected to range from average to below average,” the report says.

Here’s the release from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (Mage Hultstrand):

The latest snowpack measurements, conducted by the USDA – Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), show above normal levels of snow at many measuring sites throughout the Yampa, Colorado, North and South Platte River basins in Colorado. Conversely, observations in the Upper Rio Grande, Arkansas, Gunnison and combined San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan River basins indicate near to below normal snowpack’s.

“The month of April yielded below average precipitation in all watersheds but affected year-to- date precipitation and snowpack totals little, rounding out the snowpack on May 1 at 107 percent of median,” according to Brian Domonkos, Colorado Snow Survey Supervisor with the NRCS.

In general, moisture laden storms favored the northern tier basins in the state of Colorado throughout 2014. Last month the Gunnison, Upper Rio Grande and San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan basins were impacted by warmer temperatures and lack of snowfall. These basins have fallen further below normal since last month’s report, with the most severe deficit in the Upper Rio Grande basin, which fell from 79 percent of median last month to 50 percent of median this month. The latest surveys indicate the lowest snowpack percentage in the state was measured in the Upper Rio Grande basin at 50 percent of median. The San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan basins declined to 68 percent of median and the Gunnison declined to 97 percent of median.

With slightly better than one half of the states reservoirs at 100 percent of average or better, and nearly three quarters of the state’s reservoirs at or better than 80 percent of average at the end of April, statewide reservoir storage is in fairly good standing. The Arkansas River basin currently has the lowest storage as a percent of average at 59 percent but on a positive note Pueblo Reservoir is right at the 30 year average and 54 percent of capacity. The South Platte basin has the best storage at 110 percent of average and 90 percent of capacity. The vast majority of all reservoirs in the state have higher storage levels than at this time last year. For areas with well above normal snowpack or projected streamflows, it is often necessary to draft reservoirs to allow for the above average inflows. If reservoir storage is below average in a drainage basin with above to well above normal snowpack the project may be anticipating above average streamflow.

For most of the state, this spring’s runoff and summer water supplies are predicted to be good to excellent. More than half of the 89 streamflow forecast points in Colorado are predicted to have better than 100 percent of average streamflows. Nearly two thirds of the state is projected to have better than 80 percent of average streamflows. Two excellent statistics compared to this time last year. The basins that can expect some of the largest volumes include the Colorado, Yampa, North Platte and along the Cache La Poudre River in the South Platte basin. The exceptions are the Upper Rio Grande, and those basins in southwestern Colorado where runoff volumes for the May through July period are expected to range from average to below average volumes.

Click here to read the latest discussion from the Climate Prediction Center. Here’s an excerpt:

Synopsis: Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during
summer.

ENSO-neutral continued during April 2014, but with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) developing over much of the eastern tropical Pacific as well as persisting near the International Date Line. The weekly SST indices were near to slightly above average and increasing in the Niño1+2, Niño3 and Niño3.4 regions, and above average in the Niño4 region. The down-welling phase of a strong oceanic Kelvin wave that began in January greatly increased the oceanic heat content during March and April, and produced large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific. The upper portion of these subsurface anomalies reached the sea surface, warming the waters east of 125ºW longitude. Also during April, weak low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the far western Pacific, while upper-level easterly anomalies occurred over much of the Pacific. Convection was enhanced over the west-central equatorial Pacific. These atmospheric and oceanic conditions collectively indicate a continued evolution toward El Niño.

From New Scientist (Michael Slezak):

The weather is preparing to go wild, and will wreak havoc and death around the globe later this year. An El Niño, a splurge of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, is coming. It will unleash floods in the Americas, while South-East Asia and Australia face drought. Yet little is being done to address these consequences.

“The tropical climate system is primed for a big El Niño,” says Axel Timmermann of the University of Hawaii in Honolulu…

The effects can be deadly. A big El Niño in 1997-98 killed 20,000 people and caused almost $97 billion of damage.

Meteorologists contacted by New Scientist all expect an El Niño at the end of this year. And it looks like a big one, says Wenju Cai of CSIRO, Australia’s national research agency, in Melbourne. The more heat in the Pacific, the bigger the El Niño, and right now, 150 metres below the surface, a ball of warm water is crossing that ocean. “It’s huge,” says Cai.

Yet official forecasts remain cautious. As recently as 5 May, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration only said the odds of an El Niño would exceed 50 per cent this year.

Most El Niño researchers say forecasters are being too conservative. “One thing I hear over and over again is ‘we do not want to create a panic’,” says Timmermann. There is a reason: forecasting a big El Niño would cause a spike in food prices. “But it may be better to have this reaction at an early stage, when farmers can still adapt, rather than later.”

The good news is that El Niño is a known quantity. “We already know what happens when a big El Niño hits,” says Zafar Adeel of the United Nations University in Hamilton, Canada. That means vulnerable populations can be identified and emergency plans put in place. But not everywhere has a plan.

Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

The Plains

After good rains last week across parts of the northern Plains, dryness followed this week across most of eastern South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. Unseasonably cool weather continues to delay impacts thus far as 30-90 day deficits (25-75% of normal across the region) are starting to mount considerably for many parts of these states heading into summer. This has led to some changes this week in the form of expanding D1-D2 in eastern Nebraska as well as in the southern Panhandle out west. D1 also expanded in southeastern South Dakota, although some trimming of D0 on the northernmost flank of D0 in eastern South Dakota is also noted this week as they have been wetter than those counties in the southeast. Kansas continues to set the southern edge of the intense drought that seems to be waking up and pushing rapidly north along with warmer temperatures. A large expansion of D3 now covers nearly the entire southern half of Kansas and D4 is slowly pushing north out of Oklahoma. Soil moisture and groundwater levels are hurting well in front of the peak demand season as the cumulative impacts of such an intense multi-year drought are already glaringly evident, and it’s only early May. Precipitation totals on the year are running just 25-50% of normal, or worse, for many locales across southern Kansas.

The story is even bleaker in the southern Plains, where the heat and drought described above for Kansas are even more pronounced and entrenched across western Oklahoma and much of Texas as well. Expansion has begun to happen in earnest now that Mother Nature has turned up the furnace, which will do the landscape no favors with summer not here yet. Expansion of D2-D4 is noted across western Oklahoma and all changes in Texas are for the worse this week as well, with expansion of D0-D4 found statewide and D3 and D4 covering large portions of southern, central, north-central and the Panhandle of Texas. Streamflow and groundwater levels are hurting given the long duration and sustained intensity of this drought, which is now going on close to four years. Winter wheat has also been hard hit by hard freezes and the more recent triple-digit heat. Lack of range and pasture land, as well as fire, are the other main impacts already being reported early this year.

The West

Most of the West remains in status quo after a relatively dry but warmer than normal week. For the drought-affected regions, the general lack of snow pack and water equivalent totals (as reported by USDA-NRCS) leaves a lot to be desired, with many locations falling at, or below, 50% of normal, and many areas have already melted out that shouldn’t have at this time of year. As the dry season settles in and demand peaks, water supplies will quickly follow suit as many in the region have already turned their attention to what the monsoon or potential El Niño may bring, knowing that the tap is about to go dry.

Some minor changes were made this week, with some slight expansion of D1 in extreme northeastern Colorado, where the drought in the Plains continues to slowly push westward toward the Front Range of the Rockies. Farther west and north, a late-season push of moisture brought some recovery to year-to-date totals in western Idaho, leading to some minor improvement of D0-D2 there.

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5 days (May 8-13), the National Weather Service is calling for a system to potentially bring some relief to the Pacific Northwest along with parts of the central Rockies and Front Range. Heavy precipitation is possible in northeastern Colorado and in the Nebraska Panhandle along with heavier, but spottier, totals expected in a band running north to south from Minnesota, western Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and parts of north-central and southern Texas along with southern Louisiana as well. In addition, above-normal rains appear to be likely for Mississippi and northern Alabama along with the western reaches of the Tennessee Valley, northern Georgia and the extreme western counties in the Carolinas. As for temperatures, below-normal readings (5 to 10 degrees) are expected over roughly this same time period for the northern Plains, central/northern Rocky Mountain states, Idaho and parts of the Intermountain Basin region. The opposite is forecast for parts of all states east of the Mississippi River, except for Florida, with readings expected to run 3 to 9 degrees above normal.

The 6-10 day (May 13-17) and 8-14 (May 15-21) day outlooks are both consistent in showing a greater likelihood of above-normal temperatures across the West and below-normal temperatures east of the Mississippi River valley as well as the Great Lakes and Gulf Coast region, including coastal Texas. As for precipitation, below-normal rainfall is more likely across western Alaska, much of the West (not as likely in the Pacific NW), the central and southern Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley and over into the Southeast as well. Above-normal precipitation is likely only in the Northeast and New England regions, with lower chances stretching south into the northern Mid-Atlantic region.

Here you go folks… our initial post on weekend storm and that four-letter-word #snow: http://t.co/HKMkLeam62 #cowx pic.twitter.com/B8yBR8nrYI

— Brendan Heberton (@BrendansWeather) May 8, 2014

From the Fort Collins Coloradoan (Ryan Maye Handy):

Colorado residents have seen the affects of climate change scar their mountains in the form of wildfires and massive bark beetle outbreaks, according to the U.S. Climate Assessment released Tuesday by the White House.

Considered to be a part of the Southwest Region, which encompasses drought-stricken states such as New Mexico and California, Colorado is likely to see the impacts of climate change in things ranging from annual snowpack, to water, to agriculture and to weather…

Colorado is heavily dependent on its winter snowpack — it provides water to farmers and cities, is often a good indicator for drought, and also fuels the ski-tourism industry. Colorado’s mountains are also the headwaters for rivers and streams that feed 18 other states, making the state an epicenter for water availability issues in the Midwest and West.

The climate change assessment predicts that the Southwest Region’s population of 56 million will increase to 94 million by 2050.

The report relied on local scientists for input on their regions. Dennis Ojima, a Colorado State University professor of Ecosystem Science, wrote a chapter on the Great Plains, and Reagan Waskom, director of the Colorado Water Center, helped author the Southwest Region chapter. There were also several other CSU political scientists, epidemiologists and fire experts who contributed to the report.

Click on a thumbnail to view a gallery of snowpack data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. The melt out has started in earnest in the southern and western basins. The South Platte Basin is hanging on a bit. Unlike last season and 2011 we haven’t gotten the big Spring storms boosting the snowpack. There may be something on the horizon today and tomorrow and next week. Keep dancing for snow.

Former NRCS snow guru Mike Gillespie told me a while back that this is the time of year to start paying attention to “current as a percent of peak” numbers instead of “percent of average.”

From The Greeley Tribune (Eric Brown):

A large snowpack has river flows in the mountains and foothills well above average for this time of year, but that hasn’t yet translated into historically full rivers closer to Greeley. There’s plenty of water coming down, experts say, but local farmers — having endured two dry and windy months — have been taking it out of the river about as fast as it’s been coming down during the past week.

“It’s been bone dry lately … so anyone who’s in priority to take water is taking whatever they can,” said Mike Hungenberg, a farmer near Greeley and Eaton, and president of the New Cache La Poudre Ditch and Irrigation Co. in Lucerne. He noted that, in addition to it being dry recently, some farmers could be taking more water than normal now because they’ve planted more acres this year than in recent years because of the positive water outlook.

The biggest contrast in river flows has been in the Poudre River. At its mouth above Fort Collins, the Poudre River was seeing flows of about 950 cubic feet per second on Tuesday — more than double the historic average of about 450 cubic feet per second for May 6 at that location, according to Colorado Division of Water Resources numbers. But by the time the river reached Greeley, flows on Tuesday were 35 cubic feet per second — far below the historic average of about 170 cfs for May 6 at that location.

It was a different story on the Poudre River near Greeley last week. Flows in the river near Greeley reached about 380 cfs on April 28 — well above the historic average of about 150 cfs for that date. Hungenberg noted that his ditch started delivering water to its local farmers a couple days later because they were in need, helping contribute to the sharp drop in stream flows in the river.

“A lot of factors play into it,” said Dave Nettles, the Colorado Division of Water Resources Division 1 engineer, based in Greeley. “We’ve had some cooler temperatures that have helped slow some of the flows. But no doubt we’re seeing farmers irrigating more than normal for this time of year because of how dry it’s been lately.”

With river levels historically low near Greeley and in Weld County, it could be a cushion the area needs to endure too much water coming this way later on.

“It could play a part in that,” Nettles said.

A well above-average snowpack in the mountains, combined with rivers and streams that are still littered with debris and compromised banks, has caused concern for potential flooding in northeast Colorado during the spring run-off period this spring.

Local farmers said they don’t like using this much irrigation water just to get their crops started, but they don’t have much choice.

Last September’s historic flooding gave local farmers good soil moisture heading into 2014 and, during the first two months of the year, precipitation in the Greeley area was double what it is historically. Since March 1, however, Greeley has only received about 2 inches of precipitation — about 40 percent less than normal. The recent exclamation point to the dry-spell was a series of windy days that parched the soil even more so. Local farmers say they’re glad to have the abundant run-off to help them get their crops off to a good start, but added that they’re eager for rain to come to the rescue, helping them reserve some of their run-off supplies for irrigating later in the year.

Meanwhile Clear Creek at Golden is up ~40 cfs this morning. From email from the USGS Water Watch system:

Streamflow of 285 cfs exceeds subscriber threshold of 200 at 2014-05-07 04:45:00 MDT
06719505 00060 CLEAR CREEK AT GOLDEN, CO

From email from Reclamation (Kara Lamb):

This morning we made some additional changes to the outflow at Olympus Dam. Inflows to Lake Estes were up again last night, as is typical for this time of year. As a result, in a series of two changes at 7:15 a.m. and again at 9:15 a.m., we bumped up the outflow from the dam to correspond with the forecasted inflows to the small reservoir. Today, the Big Thompson River is flowing at about 236 cubic feet per second at the top of the Big Thompson Canyon by the gage below Olympus Dam.

Now that runoff has begun, we will likely be making changes every day to adjust outflow with inflows. We are also going to move back to our regular operations schedule where we adjust the gates at Olympus Dam shortly after midnight each night to match the predicted inflows for the reservoir in the early morning hours.

Tenmile Creek flows 2X average right now, 2011 the most comparable year … #CoWater

— Bob Berwyn (@bberwyn) May 7, 2014

From CDOT via the Glenwood Springs Post Independent:

High water from the start of the seasonal mountain runoff prompted Colorado Department of Transportation officials to close a section of the Glenwood Canyon bike path on Tuesday afternoon. The path between the Shoshone put-in and the Hanging Lake trailhead will remain closed until further notice, CDOT spokeswoman Tracy Trulove said.

“We will monitor the situation daily, but for now that section is closed,” Trulove said.

It’s possible that other sections of the path could also be closed at times during the spring runoff season, she said.

BREAKING: NOAA, fed scientists stand w/ #POTUS in release of #USClimateReport at http://t.co/CFvEY8XKIy #NOAAclimate pic.twitter.com/PYtC1p3SEH

— NOAA (@NOAA) May 6, 2014

See what #ClimateChange means for your region via clickable map at http://t.co/CNUK0y8rzZ #USClimateReport pic.twitter.com/If6rYgT3sv

— NOAA (@NOAA) May 6, 2014

From NOAA:

Drought conditions across a large swath of the Western United States are unlikely to improve during May, according to the Monthly Drought Outlook from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. From the state of Washington south to the Mexican border, then east into Texas and north into the High Plains, increased chances for warmer-than-average temperatures and a normal decline in the amount of precipitation expected across the West and Southwest in late spring mean that existing drought conditions will likely remain in place or become worse.

The map…shows the monthly drought outlook for May 2014. Yellow areas show where drought is likely to develop. Areas where drought is already present and likely to persist or worsen are shown in brown—not a hopeful outlook for California or southeastern Colorado. Tan areas show where drought conditions are likely to improve, and green areas show where drought is likely to end. Drought is likely to expand in southern Texas, but the eastern portion of the southern Great Plains is likely to see drought improve or end.