Day: February 1, 2024

#Drought News February 1, 2024: Most of the High Plains region was dry this week, with only portions of central #Colorado, far southwest #Kansas, and northern #NorthDakota recording normal to above-normal precipitation. The entire West was near to above normal for temperatures

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

US Drought Monitor map January 30, 2024.
High Plains Drought Monitor map January 30, 2024.
West Drought Monitor map January 30, 2024.
Colorado Drought Monitor map January 30, 2024.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

The synoptic pattern over the last week favored continued precipitation over the coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest and very widespread and heavy precipitation in the South and Southeast and into the Midwest. Some areas of east Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi recorded over 8 inches of rain for the week. Dryness dominated the central to high Plains and most of the rest of the West as well as the Atlantic Coast into south Florida. After a very strong cold snap in previous weeks, temperatures this week were warmer than normal over much of the U.S., with the upper Midwest having the greatest departures of 15-20 degrees above normal in Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Across the plains of Wyoming and Montana and into the northern Rocky Mountains, there is building concern over the lack of snow this current water year and snow drought concerns are also prevalent in portions of the High Plains and upper Midwest…

High Plains

Most of the region was dry this week, with only portions of central Colorado, far southwest Kansas, and northern North Dakota recording normal to above-normal precipitation. Temperatures were near normal over much of Kansas and central Nebraska and were 5-10 degrees above normal for most of the rest of the region. Most of the region did not see any changes to the drought status this week. Moderate drought was introduced over portions of western South Dakota and central Wyoming due to the ongoing dry winter and lack of snow. Abnormally dry conditions were improved in central Colorado based on the short-term improvements being observed there…

Drought Monitor one week change map ending January 30, 2024.

West

Areas along the coast and inland and into the Southwest recorded above-normal precipitation this week while much of the central to northern Rocky Mountains were dry. The entire West was near to above normal for temperatures with the greatest departures over Montana, Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, where some areas were 10-15 degrees above normal for the week. This same area has been impacted by snow drought this current water year and there are developing concerns about water availability heading into the spring and summer as we approach February. Severe drought was introduced into more of southern and central Montana and into northwest Wyoming. Abnormally dry conditions were expanded in southern Utah and introduced into eastern California and western Nevada. Moderate drought expanded in northeast Oregon into Idaho and in southern Oregon in the Klamath Valley. Elsewhere in Oregon and Washington, improvements were made to moderate and severe drought in western Oregon and Washington while some areas of abnormally dry conditions were contracted. Areas of southern Arizona and southern New Mexico had improvements where extreme drought was removed from much of southern Arizona and reduced in southern New Mexico with additional improvements to moderate and severe drought…

South

Temperatures were cooler than normal over central Oklahoma into northern Texas where departures were 1-3 degrees below normal. Most of the rest of the region was near normal to 3-6 degrees above normal, with the greatest departures over Mississippi where it was 9-12 degrees above normal. A very wet week for the region. Some areas of east Texas and into Arkansas recorded over 800% of normal precipitation for the week and almost all areas were 200-400% of normal precipitation. Widespread improvements to the overall drought status were made this week over most of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana and east Texas where a full category improvement in drought intensity status was made. Some areas were investigated for multiple categories of improvement but with some of the long-term issues still showing up, most improvements were limited to a single reduction in intensity this week. Southern Oklahoma and north Texas had targeted improvements to the severe and moderate drought as well as the abnormally dry conditions. Portions of west Texas continued to be dry and may need to see drought intensification if the pattern doesn’t change…

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5-7 days, an active pattern is anticipated to remain over the South and Southeast with another week of widespread precipitation from east Texas to the Carolinas. Some precipitation is anticipated over the central Plains while a wetter pattern is anticipated over most of the West, with the greatest precipitation along the California coast. Temperatures during this period are anticipated to be below normal over California, Nevada, and into Utah and Arizona while warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected to impact the Plains, Midwest and portions of the South. The greatest departures of above-normal temperatures are anticipated in the upper Midwest and northern Plains with departures of 20-25 degrees above normal.

The 6–10 day outlooks show above-normal chances for warmer-than-normal temperatures over much of the country east of the Rocky Mountains with the greatest probability over the Great Lakes region and upper Midwest. The best chances for cooler-than-normal temperatures will be over the West and Florida with the best chances of below-normal temperatures over much of California. Much of the western half of the U.S. will have high probabilities of above-normal precipitation with the greatest chances over the Southwest. The best chances of below-normal precipitation will be in upper New England and through much of the Mid-Atlantic and into the Southeast. The highest probability of below-normal precipitation will be over Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts.

US Drought Monitor one week change map ending January 30, 2024.

Interview: #Colorado’s new youth advisor to the EPA says #ClimateChange isn’t just a future issue – it’s having an impact on the present — Colorado Public Radio #ActOnClimate

18-year-old Gabriel Nagel represents Colorado on the new National Environmental Youth Advisory Council

 Click the link to read the transcript on the Colorado Public Radio website (Carl Bilek, Joe Wertz, and Ryan Warner). Here’s an excerpt:

January 29, 2024

A college freshman from Denver will chair the Environmental Protection Agency’s first National Environmental Youth Advisory Council. 18-year-old Gabriel Nagel graduated from Denver East High School and now attends Stanford University. He said young people can make a difference in addressing issues like climate change if they just get involved. 

“They need to start speaking up to leaders in their community, whether that be their school district, even just their high school working to make local change. That could be really impactful,” said Nagel.

From the EPA’s National Environmental Youth Advisory Council webpage:

Gabriel Nagel is an accomplished youth climate justice activist and community organizer. He is the founder and CEO of the nonprofit Light CO2, which launched a carbon footprint tracking app, curated a collection of youth-written articles, and planted 10,000+ trees. Gabriel is also the founder and co-leader of the DPS Students for Climate Action team, which developed an environmental justice policy passed across 200 schools, impacting 92,000 students. The policy is one of the first among all US school districts to address social and climate justice. He serves on Denver’s Sustainability Advisory Council, which manages a $40 million budget, and as the United Nations Association’s Climate Action Ambassador, where he is drafting the first UN Youth Declaration of Human Rights. In addition to being featured on NPR twice, he spoke at NYC Climate Week and met with Vice-President Kamala Harris to discuss climate anxiety. He is honored with the President’s Environmental Youth Award.

#Colorado Water Conservation Board Approves Funding for Continued Shoshone Preservation Efforts #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

This historical photo shows the penstocks of the Shoshone power plant above the Colorado River. A coalition led by the Colorado River District is seeking to purchase the water rights associated with the plant. Credit: Library of Congress photo

Click the link to read the release on the Colorado Water Conservation Board website:

January 29, 2024—The Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) has voted to recommend $20 million in funding to the Colorado River District as part of the annual Water Projects Bill contributing to a larger funding effort to secure Shoshone permanence and foster water security on the Colorado River. 

“The CWCB Board considered this funding application very carefully. This is a significant step towards maintaining historic flows on the Colorado River,” said Lauren Ris, CWCB Director. “As an agency, we will continue to do our due diligence in this process, with the hope that these efforts can benefit the environment and give West Slope water users more certainty.”

The decision follows a special workshop held on January 25, and a final vote during CWCB’s January Board Meeting. On December 19, 2023, the Colorado River Water Conservation District and Public Service Company signed an agreement that would allow the River District to purchase the water rights associated with the Shoshone power plant. The River District is also planning to seek funds from the Bureau of Reclamation and others.

In the coming months to years, CWCB will work with the River District to negotiate an instream flow agreement. If approved, the two entities would then seek a change in water right decree through Colorado Water Court. The CWCB’s Instream Flow Program secures instream flow water rights to protect streamflow to preserve the natural environment of streams and lakes where fish and other species live. The integrity of this long-standing program depends on a thorough review, so it’s critical CWCB staff follow public processes. 

“We also greatly appreciate the hard work and dedication of CWCB staff in this effort and their positive recommendation of funding to the Board,” said Andy Mueller, Colorado River District General Manager. “We consider the state an integral partner in protecting Shoshone’s flows in perpetuity, and the $20 million funding milestone brings this generational investment in Colorado water security one step closer to the finish line.”

“If completed, Shoshone water right preservation would help maintain flows on the Colorado River, and support the system as a whole,” said Dan Gibbs, Executive Director of the Colorado Department of Natural Resources. “Securing this water right and negotiating an instream flow use agreement could mean supporting healthy agriculture, providing clean drinking water, fostering healthy environments, and more. We look forward to working with the Colorado River District and Xcel Energy as this process enters the next phases of evaluation and approval.”

#NewMexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham unveils 50-year water action plan — Source NM

New Mexico Lakes, Rivers and Water Resources via Geology.com.

Click the link to read the article on the Source NM website (Danielle Prokop):

January 31, 2024

Even as New Mexico water supplies are predicted to decline by more than 25% over the next five decades, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said she always views the glass as half-full, in the Tuesday presentation of a long-awaited report addressing the state’s water needs for the next 50 years.

Or really: “45 years, since it took us five years to write it,” the governor quipped.

Over the next 50 years, due to human-driven climate change, scientists say New Mexico will be hotter, drier and lead to less water. Hotter weather shrinks the snowbanks, parches the soils and shrivels the rivers. Less available water in rivers puts more pressure on New Mexico aquifers and reduces the chances to refill them. Climate change also turns up the heat on wildfires, which decimate watersheds, and will deepen droughts and worsen flooding.

Without action, New Mexico will have a shortage of 750,000 acre feet of water in that time period, according to the document.

The 23-page document proposes using water conservation, new water supplies and protections for watersheds to address the shortfall. It breaks down further into 11 subsections with points to develop public education campaigns, improve infrastructure, modernize wastewater treatment plants and protect and restore watersheds.

“It conserves water and it reduces waste,” Lujan Grisham said. “If it’s leaking, and it’s evaporating, we don’t know where it is, and if we’re not protecting it and if it gets polluted.”

During an hour-long press conference before the document was made public, Lujan Grisham advocated again for a plan to invest half a billion dollars to develop a market in desalination and oil wastewater treatment technology.

Lujan Grisham described the quantities of brackish water (salty water) in deep underground aquifers to be as vast as an “ocean.”

“We should not be using our fresh drinking water in a number of industries,” she said. “Because we don’t need to make that choice between your safe drinking water and your business. We have the chance here to do both. And that’s exactly the path we’re on.”

Lujan Grisham said that treated produced and brackish water would not be used for drinking water or agricultural sources, but only in manufacturing and industrial uses, at this time.

It’s unclear how much brackish water would be available to support the governor’s goals, said State Geologist J. Michael Timmons, because the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources has not received full funding for an aquifer mapping project. An executive budget request asked for $9 million dollars for aquifer mapping.

“There are probably vast amounts of water, we need to better understand the quantity and quality of that water,” Timmons said. “It leads to the details of how accessible it is, to draw it through the rock formations. There’s a lot of work to be done on our part as a state agency, and others, to better understand those resources.”

At the press conference, Lujan Grisham was joined by the governors from Sandia and Santa Clara Pueblos, the New Mexico Environment Department secretary, the Clovis mayor and several lawmakers.

Some water advocates celebrated the priorities in the plan upon first review. Allyson Siwik, the executive director of Gila Resources Information Project, said she was pleased to see watershed pollution protections, restoration projects, stormwater management and drinking water infrastructure included.

Others said the plan did not address the issues facing New Mexico’s water crisis, including Melissa Troutman, a climate and energy advocate for WildEarth Guardians.

“The governor’s water plan ignores critical water threats in New Mexico, such as daily oil and gas spills that go unpenalized,” Troutman said in a written statement. “And her Strategic Water Supply incentivizes water-intensive industrial development like hydrogen, manufacturing, and fossil fuels that are inappropriate for any arid bioregion.”

How did we get here?

Lujan Grisham has been calling for a 50-year water plan since 2019. While lawmakers declined to fund the plan  in prior years, New Mexico In Depth reported lawmakers provided $250,000 annually for the 50-year water plan and granted $500,000 in a one-time appropriation to the Office of the State Engineer in 2023.

A draft of the 50-year water plan circulated in 2022. What was presented today, “evolved” from that draft, said the governor’s spokesperson Maddy Hayden.

“The Action Plan released today evolved from the draft 50-Year Water Plan shared with the public and Water Task Force members in 2022 and reflects the Governor’s priority actions to provide water security for future New Mexicans,” Hayden wrote.

Hayden continued to say that the plan  “complements many ongoing state agency programs” and that the implementation will have community involvement.

The 50-year plan is separate from the state water plans, which must be reviewed every five years.

The action plan is based on input from state agencies, a 29-member task force, two working groups which focused on tribal water and acequias, and a 192-page report analyzing the science of climate change impacts based on peer-reviewed research in New Mexico.

It bears little resemblance to those other reports.

The New Mexico Water Policy and Infrastructure Taskforce led by state environmental agencies, but also with lawmakers, conservation nonprofits, local water districts, tribal governments and more, issued a 90-page report that included detailed recommendations for funding more data collection. The group outlined dollar amounts for future legislation and staffing levels to sustain these water plans.

The 50-year action plan asks for recurring funding of $1.25 million per year for aquifer mapping and any additional funds would provide more than 100 monitoring wells in the next 12 years.

The other funding request in the plan asks for $500 million in 2024 and 2025 for the Strategic Water Supply Project. The “Return on Investment” for that project, according to the document, would be 100,000 acre feet of new water by 2028. By 2035, the report says, 50,000 feet to treat brackish water would be available for “recharging freshwater aquifers,” or used for “communities, farms, aquatic ecosystems and interstate compact compliance.”

The report assigns deadlines for actions in the next few years, but does not indicate how much the goals cost to accomplish.

In one section, the report says in order to address contaminated groundwater across hundreds of sites – including legacy uranium sites, petroleum releases and other polluted spots, New Mexico will “develop a dashboard of all known contaminated groundwater sites, including the status and estimated cost of cleanup for each site.”

It would then, “launch a state program to pay for the remediation of 100 neglected sites with no responsible party,” by 2025.

#California is in a ‘snow drought.’ Why this week’s atmospheric rivers won’t be enough to end it — The Los Angeles Times #snowpack #ActOnClimate

Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map February 1, 2024 via the NRCS.

Click the link to read the article on The Los Angeles Times website (Ian James). Here’s an excerpt:

January 31, 2024

Storms that are moving in from the Pacific are forecast to bring more snow to the mountains starting this week, along with torrential rains in other parts of the state. But most of California’s storms this year have been shaped by warm conditions, bringing more rain and less snow — a trend that experts say is influenced by the current El Niño conditions on top of rising temperatures driven by human-caused climate change. [ed. emphasis mine] After conducting the state’s second seasonal snow survey Tuesday [January 30, 2024], De Guzman noted that most of the storms this year have been warmer, bringing more rain and less snow.

“That rain-snow transition line has been creeping up further and further compared to years past,” De Guzman told reporters. “With a warming climate, we can expect that to be the new norm, where we would tend to see more rainfall where you would have typically seen snow.”

[…]

After California began the year with a dismal snowpack that measured just 25% of average, the amount of snow in the Sierra Nevada has grown but remains small for this time of year. As of Tuesday, sensors across the Sierra Nevada showed the snowpack stood at 52% of average for the date, with two months left until the snow usually reaches its peak accumulation around April 1. De Guzman and other officials measured 29 inches of snow at Phillips Station, near South Lake Tahoe. Last year at this time they had stood on more than 7 feet of snow — one of the largest snowpacks on record, which came during a colder winter. California has traditionally relied on the Sierra snowpack for about 30% of the state’s water supplies on average. But scientific research has found that in recent decades, average snowlines have been creeping higher with rising temperatures as more precipitation falls as rain instead of snow. And scientists say the current strong El Niño conditions have brought warmer temperatures, further tilting conditions toward more rain this year.

“Historically El Niño winters weren’t that much warmer than other winters in California, but now they are. That’s climate change,” UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a webinar.

What explains the sold-out water conferences? — Allen Best (@BigPivots)

People at Lake Powell May 25, 2022. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

January 30, 2024

The Colorado Water Congress is sold out again, this time a month in advance. How much do the #ColoradoRiver problems explain this surge?

Members of the Colorado Water Congress this week will gather for three days at a hotel along Colfax Avenue in Aurora to hash through dozens of topics. There will be sessions about wildfire and water, the views of Gen Z water professionals and, of course, a report from Becky Mitchell, Colorado’s chief negotiator on Colorado River issues.

Not registered to attend? It’s too late. The conference was sold out in late December, the registrations capped at 650. It sold out last year, too. In prior years, the maximum attendance was around 500. Other water conferences in Colorado and beyond have also seen an uptick in attendance.

What’s going on? Conference organizers in some cases attribute the increased attendance to the Colorado River crisis. More broadly, though, they attribute the swelling registrations to other triggers. Most important is the desire of people to get together in the flesh once again after the social isolation forced by the covid epidemic.

“It might be a little bit of a mix,” says Doug Kemper, executive director of the Colorado Water Congress, the state’s largest organization of water professionals. “I don’t think it’s being driven by a specific water issue.”

There is interest in the Colorado River, obviously, given how much of Colorado depends upon the troubled river, both for agriculture and for its supplies for urban cities. About half of water for Front Range cities comes from the Colorado River and its headwaters.

Also stirring interest, said Kemper, are other topics, such as the question of whether Nebraska will be able to develop its share of the South Platte River within Colorado.

Mostly the increased attendance of the last two years has been driven by the desire of people to see faces, not computer screens.

Attendance at conferences organized by the American Water Works Association seem to confirm Kemper’s observation that the uptick has more to do with Covid recovery than to any specific water concerns.

Greg Kail, director of communications for the Colorado-based organization, the nation’s largest for water professionals, reports that numbers have grown at all conferences across North America, not just those in places close to the Colorado River.

“We would attribute those upticks primarily to Covid recovery, people wanting to get together in person,” he says.

Where the Colorado River tensions really do seem to drive greater attendance is at an annual  meeting in Las Vegas. There, the Colorado River Water Users Association annual conference is held each December at Caesar’s Palace or some other hotel along The Strip. In some years past, even as the Colorado River situation continued to deteriorate, enough conference chairs remained vacant to seat the entire population of a small town from the river’s headwaters.

Then, in 2022, attendance surged. Water levels in the river’s two giant reservoirs, Mead and Powell, had dropped precipitously, posing difficult questions whether too little water would remain to generate electricity, something that had not occurred since the two reservoirs filled in respectively the 1930s and 1960s. The Bureau of Reclamation adopted a more urgent stance. National media devoted space, ink and time.

Whereas the average attendance in prior years had been 1,100, registration in 2022 swelled to 1,374. In December 2023, the 1,700 cap at a larger conference venue was also reached.

“A lot is happening on the Colorado River right now and will continue through 2026, and I attribute the increased attendance in large part to that,” said Crystal Thompson, communications manager for the Central Arizona Project, who handles press relations of the annual conference.

Thompson expects that increased attendance will be the new norm during at least the next several years.

Screenshot from Kestrel Kunz’s presentation at the CRWUA 2023 Annual Conference.