Residents of Boone County, Indiana, had a lot to be anxious about in 2023 when state authorities revealed the scope of a nearly 10,000-acre innovation and high-tech manufacturing park they were developing outside Lebanon, a half-hour drive northwest of Indianapolis.
One concern was the public taxpayer cost of the LEAP project โ short for Limitless Exploration/Advanced Pace โ now nearing $1 billion. Another was the way authorities made big decisions for the โmega site with mega opportunitiesโ with zero public consideration. Energy demand and managing the developmentโs wastes also commanded attention. Still, even in a Great Lakes state where water is commonly considered to be available in abundance, Boone Countyโs central worry was this: How much water would the projectโs tenants need for operations?
Two years later that question has been resolved. Largely due to effective civic organizing that resulted in public meetings attended by hundreds of people of every political alignment โ encompassing the right, the left, and everyone between โ Indiana lawmakers set out to accomplish an all-too-rare display of good governance. In April, Republican Gov. Mike Braun signed a new state law to assure that water demands for new developments undergo evaluation and permitting so they donโt drain Indianaโs surface and groundwater reserves.
The intensity of the civic resistance and the stateโs response opens one more all-too-rare opportunity. In an era rife with political disagreement, Americans are capable of finding common ground in the work of securing their water supply.
โFolks on the left, folks on the right got together,โ said Kerwin Olson, executive director of Citizens Action Coalition, an Indianapolis-based environmental advocacy group that helped build public consensus. โGroups were formed. Meetings were held where there were in excess of 1,000 people. Legislators lost their jobs. It really, truly was water. Water is life. Water is a unifying issue.โ
The idea that water can produce political unity is not new. International treaties to share water, like the one that the U.S. and Mexico signed in 1944 for three transboundary rivers, are common around the world. Across the arid American West, assuring ample water has been a requirement for new industrial development for decades.
Still, a convergence of powerful trends in climate, population growth, and the escalating water demands of advanced manufacturing and technology industries is driving water supply to new prominence as a public concern in places it never was before. In 2007, for instance, Indiana recruited Nestle to build a 215,000 square-foot water bottling plant in Greenwood with scant public attention to its water demand.
Such civic indifference no longer exists in America east of the Mississippi River. Examples abound.
Facing a sharp growth in demand, Georgia just approved $501 million for water treatment and water delivery infrastructure near Savannah to satisfy the needs of Hyundaiโs new electric vehicle manufacturing plant.
Water supply lies at the center of public opposition to a new electric vehicle battery plant in Mecosta County, Michigan.
Indiana Compelled to Consider Water Water wasnโt a primary consideration when the Indiana Economic Development Corporation began assembling farm land outside Lebanon for LEAP. The central marketing message was that the immense development would sit alongside I-65 at the center of a โworld without limitsโ 30 miles northwest of Indianapolis, the stateโs capital and largest city, and easily accessible to Purdue Universityโs world-class science and technology programs.
That was enticing to Eli Lilly, the Indianapolis-based drug manufacturer, which jumped in with an investment that now totals $13 billion to build research, processing, and manufacturing plants for its next-generation therapies and for its diabetes and obesity medicines. Meta, the parent company of Facebook, also expressed interest in building a 1,500-acre mega-water-gulping data center. Other companies were and still are being recruited to build advanced manufacturing plants in agricultural products, electrified transportation, and computer chips.
When state authorities revealed proposals to build two water pipelines, each about 50 miles long, to transport 150 million gallons a day from surface and groundwater reserves to serve LEAPโs demand, public anxiety escalated into powerful civic resistance.
Enter Citizens Action Coalition and its compelling December 2023 report charging state authorities with operating in secret, and raising concerns about the developmentโs cost to taxpayers and utility ratepayers. Most importantly, the group found that the region north of the state capital may have insufficient supplies of water to support the LEAP development. CAC called for Indiana to develop a new statewide industrial development policy to โsecure water availability for communities into the future.โ
States too often treat public campaigns that raise big questions about the economy, policy, and security of natural resources as an imposition unworthy of either serious consideration or concerted action. Not this time in Indiana. Former Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb ordered two studies that found that the supply of water will meet LEAPโs requirements and future demand. The authors of both reports also called for more aggressive water conservation practices to ensure adequate supplies.
Then came passage of the new water supply law. Since then, โwater has mostly died down,โ said Kerwin Olson of CAC. Still, the public vigilance about LEAPโs tenants remains keen. โOther things have overwhelmed the conversation,โ Olson added. โLike the energy piece.โ
In two years, Indiana assembled civic restiveness, agency oversight, and legislative consideration into a consensus that quelled concern over the supply of an essential resource. The pace and success of the stateโs response to overwhelming public concern is unusual and noteworthy in our era of political belligerence.
Glen Canyon Dam just upstream from Lee’s Ferry where the Upper Basin ends and the Lower Basin begins. Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming, which make up the Colorado Riverโs upper basin, launched the System Conservation Pilot Program late last year, offering money to farmers and others willing to forgo their water use this year. So far the program has struggled, with few people applying. The granted applications amount to less than 2% of the smallest amount of water federal officials hope to save throughout the entire Colorado River Basin. Photo credit: Simon Morris, Creative Commons
Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (Elise Schmelzer). Here’s an excerpt:
August 30, 2025
The likelihood of Western states reaching a consensus on a plan for the future of the Colorado River is dimming as time runs out for the negotiators tasked with dividing up the shrinking river relied upon by 40 million people.
โThe path to success seems tenuous at this point,โ Arizonaโs negotiator, Tom Buschatzke, said in an interview this week with The Denver Post. โThe discussions continue to revolve around the main issue that weโve been struggling with for some time since these discussions started.โ
The states have until Nov. 11 to tell the federal government whether they will have a deal and until Feb. 14 to submit a detailed plan. If consensus cannot be reached, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation will implement its own plan โ a scenario that would likely prompt years of expensive litigation and put complicated water management questions in the hands of judges who arenโt specialized in the issues…
Negotiators from the Lower Basin for months have argued that their counterparts in the Upper Basin must agree to mandatory usage cuts in the driest years. The Lower Basin has already made significant cuts to address the shrinking river, Buschatzke said this week…The Upper Basin states maintain that they already take water cuts every year because they are above the systemโs two major reservoirs. Since theyโre reliant on snowpack and precipitation, theyโre forced to live within the supply of the river. Unlike the Lower Basin states, the Upper Basin has never used its entire legal allotment, while the Lower Basin for years used more water than the river supplied and depleted water supplies stored in Mead and Powell, the basinโs negotiators have said…
The potential path forward.
Negotiators continue to discuss a concept that would base the amount released from the systemโs two major reservoirs on the amount of water flowing in the river, rather than the decades-old system that bases releases on water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The negotiatorsย spoke publicly last month about the concept,ย which some hailed as a potential breakthrough in negotiations. But optimism around that concept has faded. Mitchell said it was unclear whether an agreement could be reached around the framework. Buschatzke said major sticking points remained, like what percentage of the flow each basin should receive.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
Current drought conditions across the state of Colorado, with San Miguel County outlined in black, as of Aug. 26. The Town of Telluride implemented outdoor water restrictions on Monday, Aug. 25, due to ongoing drought conditions and limited water availability locally. (Map courtesy of the U.S. Drought Monitor)
The Town of Telluride implemented outdoor water restrictions beginning Monday, Aug. 25, due to ongoing drought conditions and limited water availability locally. All water utility customers for the Town of Telluride, including Lawson Hill, Hillside and Sunnyside, are required to follow an irrigation schedule, with outdoor watering only permitted on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Watering must take place between 7 p.m. and 8 a.m. Irrigation systems should be set to 70-75% of normal water use, and all exterior water features must be turned off. No users are permitted to truck in additional water…Additionally, restaurants and businesses should serve water only upon request, and people are requested to fix any leaks immediately. Water audits and monitoring of water bills for excessive use can also help people regulate their use. Property owners who have landscaping that has been installed since spring 2024 can apply for additional permission to water. The public works department will review variances for new or modified landscaping on a case-by-case basis…
Although monsoonal rains have recently brought some moisture to the local area, it is still very dry. On the Western Slope, drought conditions remain dire, with several zones in northwestern Colorado in the category of โexceptionalโ drought. Exceptional is the most severe category of drought and is often linked to hydrologic and agricultural issues.
โThe ongoing lack of precipitation has been to blame for that, and it was very hot last week,โ Allie Mazurek, engagement climatologist at the Colorado Climate Center, told the Daily Planet. โWe have an elevated wildfire risk.โ
[…]
Over 7% of Colorado remains under exceptional drought, and 1.86 million people are experiencing some type of drought, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Drought Monitor, published on Aug. 28. Exceptional drought typically happens about once every 50 years, although parts of Colorado also experienced exceptional drought in 2023. San Miguel County is faring slightly better than much of the Western Slope, although all of the county is under at least severe drought, and the eastern edge is under extreme drought…
Locally, the San Miguel River, measured at the Placerville gauge, ended up at 62% of normal total streamflow volume for the April through July period, and the Uncompahgre River at Ridgway Reservoir was at 66%. The Animas at Durango was also at 62% of median, and the Dolores was at 52%. Some of these streamflows are historical lows…This yearโs observed streamflow for the Dolores and Animas is only in the ninth percentile out of more than 100 years of observation…For the most current information on Tellurideโs Water Conservation Program, visitย bit.ly/totwaterย or follow @townoftelluride on social media.
The Crystal River was running under 8 cfs on Aug. 24, 2025. This section of river is downstream of big agricultural diversions and ditches owned and maintained by the Town of Carbondale. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Streamflows on the Western Slope have plummeted over the last month, sending water managers scrambling to boost flows for endangered fish and ranking it among the driest years in recent history.
According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, the Roaring Fork River basin ended the month of July at 28% of average streamflows. The Colorado River headwaters was at 42% of average; the Gunnison River basin was at 34% of average and rivers in the White/Yampa/Green River basin in the northwest corner of the state were running at 24% of average. Prior to this weekโs rains, the Crystal River near the Colorado Parks and Wildlife fish hatchery was running at 7.5 cfs, or 10% of average.
โWeโve been seeing pretty widespread well-below-normal flows across the entire upper Colorado River basin due to extremely dry conditions starting back in December,โ said Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.
For most of August, the Crystal River near fish hatchery was running at less than 15 cfs. These extremely low conditions plus water temperatures above 71 degrees Fahrenheit, prompted CPW to implement on Aug. 15 a full-day voluntary fishing closure on the Crystal from mile marker 64 on Highway 133 to the confluence with the Roaring Fork. This section of the Crystal is downstream from big agricultural diversions and ditches owned and operated by the town of Carbondale.
The upper Roaring Fork River and its tributaries are also suffering the consequences of low flows. On Aug. 25 the Colorado Water Conservation Board placed a call for the minimum instream flow on a seven-mile section of the Roaring Fork through Aspen, between Difficult and Maroon creeks. The call was released the next day after rain boosted flows above the 32 cfs minimum amount.
The CWCB is the only entity in the state allowed to hold instream flow water rights, which are intended to preserve the natural environment to a reasonable degree. Itโs not uncommon for the CWCB to place calls for this stretch in late summer and it did so in other years, including 2012, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022.
Low flows have also affected recreation at the North Star Nature Preserve, a popular area for paddle boarders east of Aspen. On July 24, Pitkin County implemented a voluntary float closure โ asking people to launch at South Gate instead of Wildwood โ which occurs when the river falls below 60 cfs.
โAt low water levels, users are at risk of touching bottom, which could damage the riparian habitat and would be considered trespassing,โ a Pitkin County official said in an email.
Before this weekโs rainfall, the Roaring Fork above Aspen hovered around 30 cfs.
Streamflows across the Western Slope are often at some of their lowest points of the year during the late summer and early fall when snowmelt has waned and irrigators are still drawing from streams. But this summerโs lack of precipitation and low soil moisture were the main drivers of dry streams. Much of the Western Slope is in extreme or exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
โThe biggest factor is the dry spring conditions and layered on top of them a much drier than normal summer,โ said Peter Goble, assistant state climatologist. โWe will be watching those base flows but also soil moisture levels as we go into fall and early winter to see if those pick back up.โ
Dry soils that suck up snowmelt before it makes it to streams can mean a normal snowpack translates into below-normal runoff.
This section of the Colorado River at the boat launch near Corn Lake dipped to around 150 cfs in lake August. Known as the 15-mile reach, this stretch of river should have at least 810 cfs to meet the needs of endangered fish. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Stressed out fish
Another area hard hit by low flows is the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River between Palisade and the confluence with the Gunnison River. The chronically dry section is home to multiple endangered fish species and is downstream from some of the biggest agricultural diversions from the Colorado River in the state. Each year water managers work together to time voluntary releases from upstream reservoirs to boost late-season flows for the fish.
But even with many entities working with the Upper Colorado River Endangered Fish Recovery Program, a 2022 memo from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service found that during the irrigation season of dry years, flows did not meet the 810 cfs target 39% of the time.
This year, flows have not been above 810 cfs since July 9. And although flows in the 15-mile reach have been climbing since Aug. 23, โ up to about 650 cfs on Aug. 27 โ nearly all the water in the reach before this weekโs rain was attributable to upstream reservoir releases specifically intended for endangered fish. Without releases for the recovery program, flows in the 15-mile reach could have dipped as low as 30 to 50 cfs.
โFrom my standpoint itโs amazing how a dry year just makes it really hard to get down even a third of that flow target,โ said Bart Miller, healthy rivers director with Western Resource Advocates. โItโs a challenging time for water users, but a super challenging time for fish. For the fish itโs a huge stressor.โ
This map shows the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River near Grand Junction, home to four species of endangered fish. Map credit: CWCB
This year there was about 29,175 acre-feet earmarked for endangered fish, according to a presentation by program staff. But by Sept. 1 nearly all this water was scheduled to be used up. The nonprofit Colorado Water Trust has stepped in to lease an additional 5,000 acre-feet out of Ruedi Reservoir. The water is owned by the town of Palisade, the Colorado River Water Conservation District and QB Energy. The releases of about 100 cfs are projected to begin Aug. 27 and continue through mid-October, said Danielle Snyder, a water resources specialist with the Colorado Water Trust.
โThis particular stretch is very critical for the health of the ecosystem,โ Snyder said. โWe saw a lot of benefit for both the community and the environment and we thought this would be a great opportunity given we have the capacity and funds to provide water to that region.โ
The CWCB will also lease an additional 2,350 acre-feet for fish flows.
Locally dwindling streamflows have big implications downstream. Projections released earlier this month from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation show the nationโs two largest reservoirs โ Lake Powell and Lake Mead โ continuing to drop. Lake Powell could drop below the level needed to make hydropower by late 2026. As proof of how dry the month of July was across the basin, inflow to Lake Powell was just 12% of normal.
One bright spot in an otherwise bleak forecast is that parts of the Western Slope are finally seeing some relief from the hot and dry summer with rain this week. But it probably wonโt be enough to make up for the months-long lack of precipitation.
โWe have been dry for six-plus months so I donโt imagine it will have a significant impact long term, but itโs nice to finally see some precipitation in the forecast and observed over the last day or two,โ Moser said.ย
Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):
August 26, 2025
๐ค Data Center Watch ๐พ
What Iโm about to write is strange, even a little surreal, even to me. It seems over the top, hyperbolic, and alarmist, all things I try to avoid in my writing (unless Iโm going for satire). But here it is: The Big Data Center Buildup is transforming the West (and other regions) as quickly and radically as the post-war Big Buildup of coal plants and other power infrastructure in the 1950s, โ60s, and โ70s.
See what I mean by hyperbolic? After all, data centers are just big box stores filled with walls of computer, processors, servers, and other equipment rather than cheap plastic items. How transformative could they really be?
Very, it turns out. As Iโve written here before, data centers use huge amounts of energy and water, and if they keep sprouting like weeds in business parks and rural areas, then they very well could not only hamper, but reverse the transition away from fossil fuels.
Tech bros will certainly say Iโm being hysterical, and point to the latest estimates showing that each AI query uses a tiny fraction of the energy and water that a person consumes by doing other cyberspace activities or, for that matter, simply existing in modern times. Google, for example, says a โmedianโ Gemini text query uses .24 watt-hours of electricity, which is about the same as watching 9 seconds of television, or microwaving for 1 second, or running a refrigerator for six seconds. And growing the beef for a single hamburger uses hundreds of times more water than hundreds of AI queries.
As far as I can tell, these figures are accurate. But what do they really tell us? I suppose we can feel a bit less guilty about succumbing to the temptation to use that iPhone AI thingy to identify something we photograph, or for asking ChatGPT to pen a song. It has no bearing, however, on whatโs playing out on the ground, which is a sort of colonization of the power grid by larger and larger server farms.
I closely follow energy-related news as part of my job, and hardly a day goes by when I donโt encounter a story about the growing electricity demand from new data centers and utilities scrambling to keep up. Less than a decade ago, most Western utilities were expecting power consumption to plateau or even begin decreasing by now.
In 2018, for example, California utility regulators approved a plan to shutter Diablo Canyonโs two nuclear reactors in 2024 and 2025. Doing so would deprive the stateโs grid of enough juice to power some 1.7 million homes. But Pacific Gas & Electric, the plantโs operator, figured it wouldnโt be a problem, since demand was expected to decline over time due to efficiency gains and more rooftop solar, and they could cover the rest with new renewables.
Instead, demand has increased substantially on PG&Eโs grid since then, in large part due to new data centers in Silicon Valley, and itโs likely to continue to balloon over the next couple of decades. This forecast-blowing turnaround has prompted PG&E to toss out its old resource plans, work on acquiring more energy generation, and delay Diablo Canyonโs retirement for at least another five years. The pattern is being repeated all over the West with alarming regularity. It seems as if no place is safe from the invasion.
Some recent examples:
In late July, PG&E said it expects 10 gigawatts of new data center capacity to connect to its grid over the next ten years. Ten gigawatts, or 10,000 megawatts, is about one-fourth of the total demand on the California grid on a hot summerโs day, or equivalent to about five Diablo Canyons. Itโs a crapload of power, in other words, and thereโs no way theyโre going to serve that kind of demand growth with just solar and wind, especially since a certain administration is doing all it can to stop all solar and wind from being built. Itโs also notable because itโs a 20% increase in projected data center capacity since May.
NorthWestern Energy signed on to provide up to 1,000 MW of power โ or nearly all of the utilityโs generating capacity โ to Quantica Infrastructureโs AI data center under development in Montanaโs Yellowstone County. This would require the utility to either construct or purchase additional power, which could lead to higher rates for their existing customers. Now NorthWestern is proposing to merge with Black Hills Corp., another electricity and gas utility, saying the combined utility would be better positioned to meet rising power demand from, you guessed it, new data centers.
Xcel Energy expects to spend about $22 billion in the next 15 years to meet new data centersโ projected power demand in Colorado, potentially doubling or even tripling legacy customersโ rates. Also of concern: If the projections are overblown, Xcel could end up building a bunch of new generation thatโs not needed, leaving the utility and its customers with a bunch of stranded assets.
Wyoming officials have worked to lure data centers and cryptocurrency firms to the state, and it seems to be working. Earlier this month energy firm Tallgrass proposed building an 1,800 MW data center, along with dedicated gas-fired and renewable power facilities, near Cheyenne. That adds to Metaโs facility in Cheyenne and the 1,200 MW natural gas-powered Prometheus Hyperscale data center under development in Evanston. Observers say electricity demand from these centers could transform the physical and regulatory utility landscape and potentially drive up costs for โlegacyโ customers.
New Mexico utilities are struggling to meet growing demand from an increasing number of data centers, while also complying with the stateโs Energy Transition Actโs requirements for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
Numerous companies are eyeing Delta, Utah, as a site for new data centers. This is in part because land is cheap there. But also because it is home to the Intermountain Power Project, a massive coal plant built during the Big Buildup. The plant is scheduled to be converted to run off natural gas and, ultimately, hydrogen, but Utah lawmakers want at least one of its units to continue to burn coal. They just need a buyer for the dirty power: Enter data centers. Fibernet MercuryDelta is looking to construct the 20-million-square-foot Delta Gigasite there; and Creekstone Energy plans to manage 10 gigawatts of capacity there, with power coming from coal, solar, and natural gas.
And Arizonaโs largest utilities say demand from planned new data centers could increase total power load by 300% over current levels. Recently, Arizona Public Service announced it would keep burning coal at Four Corners Power Plant beyond its scheduled 2031 retirement to help meet this growing demand.
Sometimes the tech firms will purchase renewable power or build their own solar, wind, or geothermal facilities. But in most cases, they rely partly or wholly on fossil fuel generation, whether itโs from the grid โ which is still largely dominated by natural gas and coal in many places โ or from dedicated generators. While a lot of solar is still being added to the grid, it isnโt enough to keep up with rapidly growing demand. Plus, it may not last. The GOP phased out federal tax credits for wind and solar. And the Trump administration killed the Solar for All program that funded rooftop solar for lower-income households, and crippled the REAP program, which helps farmers install solar panels. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has vowed to make it as difficult as possible to develop solar and wind on federal lands.
What that means is that weโre likely to see another Big Buildup for the cyber age. It will include single new data centers that span nearly 500 acres and consume more power than all of the homes of Montana and Wyoming combined. And it will include the generating facilities to run the servers and to keep them cool. In the absence of policies limiting fossil fuel burning and preventing cost shifts to existing customers, weโre all going to pay the price.
๐ธ Parting Shot ๐๏ธ
Bullfrog Creek and the Little Rockies, Utah. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Revel in every drop of rain falling in your neighborhood right now, because the state is drying out again, with drought spreading, monsoon rains falling short, and a fall and winter forecast calling for dry weather.
Statewide, Colorado precipitation is measuring at just 81% of normal, well below last yearโs mark at this time, when moisture registered at 104% of normal, according to Nagam Bell, hydrologist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Lakewood.
Bellโs report came Tuesday at a meeting of the stateโs water monitoring committee, which tracks rain, snow and soil moisture levels to help urban and rural communities plan for shortages and, this year on the Western Slope, flood hazards.
Water officials said dry conditions have come back with a vengeance, said Allie Mazurek, a climatologist with the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University. โOver the last four weeks, lots of our state has begun experiencing drought. Colorado has become the epicenter of drought in the West.โ
But the Western Slope has suffered the most, she said, as evidenced by the fierce wildfires.
Particularly worrisome, she said, are measurements that show at least one monitoring gauge in the Gunnison River Basin recording precipitation levels that are the lowest seen since 1894.
One buffer against dry times are Coloradoโs water storage reservoirs, and those too are below normal, registering at 83%. In areas such as metro Denver, stored water supplies are holding their own, according to Nathan Elder, water supply manager with Denver Water, the stateโs largest water utility.
โItโs not great, but itโs not dire,โ Elder said.
The outlook in Highlands Ranch is more worrisome, said Swithin Dick, water resources administrator for Highlands Ranch Water, which serves the large residential community in Douglas County.
Dick said water use is up 25% this summer while stored water supplies have dropped to 58% of normal.
Last year, Mazurek said, the picture was much different. โMost of Colorado wasnโt experiencing any drought at the start of the water year,โ she said, referring to the Oct. 1 through Sept. 30 period that water managers use to measure supplies. โBut over the last water year weโve had poor snowpack, followed by hot and dry conditions over the summer.โ
Forecasts indicate the weather will begin to dry out more next month and that La Niรฑa conditions will develop in the winter. These refer to a weather pattern over the Pacific Ocean in which cold temperatures prevail and trigger drier than normal winter weather in places such as Colorado.
โI donโt anticipate any issues this year,โ Dick said, โbut we will be watching the winter intensely and I am a little nervous about 2026.โ
Under the 1922 Colorado Compact, the Upper Division states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming share the river with the Lower Division states of Arizona, California and Nevada, with each Division apportioned 7,500,000 acre-feet of water annually. Over eighty percent of the water of the Colorado River originates as snowpack in the Upper Division, so sharing of the Riverโs flows is accomplished through Article 3.d of the Colorado Compact, which provides that the Upper Division States will not cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry, which is in Arizona just below Lake Powell, to be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre-feet for any period of ten consecutive years. Under a 1944 treaty, the Republic of Mexico is entitled to 1,500,000 acre-feet of Colorado River water each year. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the largest reservoirs in the United States, hold Colorado River water for delivery to the states and Mexico and are operated under the authority of the Secretary of the Interior (Secretary) through the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
The U.S. Supreme Courtโs ruling Arizona v. California, 373 U.S. 546 (1963) determined that Arizona entitled to divert 2.8 million acre-feet per year of Colorado River water in normal years. This is an important supply, constituting approximately 36% of Arizonaโs total water use.
Glen Canyon Dam, which forms Lake Powell, was completed in 1963, and thereafter Lakes Powell and Mead were operated under guidelines finalized in 1970, called the Long Range Operating Criteria (LROC). In 2007, in response to several years of drought and declining reservoir levels, the Secretary, in collaboration with the Colorado River states and other stakeholders, adopted a new set of operating guidelines. The 2007 Guidelines were designed to help stabilize water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead, to provide certainty regarding shortage conditions and to incentivize conserving water in Lake Mead by providing flexibility in deliveries to certain entities through the creation of โassigned waterโ (also commonly known as โIntentionally Created Surplusโ). The 2007 Guidelines expire on December 31, 2025 but its provisions generally remain in effect through the end of 2026. The 2007 Guidelines include three important aspects of Colorado River management that impact all who share the river. These are:
The amount of water the Secretary releases annually from Lake Powell into Lake Mead under different reservoir conditions.
Broadly speaking, the goal of these releases is to equalize the amount of water in Lakes Powell and Mead. Releases are based on water levels in Lake Powell relative to water levels in Lake Mead among other factors.1
2. The conditions under which the Secretary declares a shortage of Colorado River water in the Lower Division and of the amount of shortage assessed to each state.
A shortage is declared in the Lower Division when the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation annual August 24-Month Study projects that Lake Mead will be at or below elevation 1,075โ on the following January 1.
Arizona is shorted 320,000 acre-feet of water below Lake Mead elevation 1,075โ and above 1,050โ , 400,000 acre-feet of water below elevation 1,050โ and above 1,025โ and 480,000 acre-feet of water below elevation 1,025โ. Nevada takes shortages at these levels proportional to its 300,000 acre-foot allocation and no shortages are defined at these reservoir levels for Californiaโs allocation of 4.4 million acre-feet.
3. The terms under which entities can voluntarily create and hold volumes of assigned water in Lake Mead.
Assigned water is created and held in Lake Mead under the Secretaryโs authority to allocate surplus water under Article II(B)(2) of the consolidated Supreme Court decree in Arizona vs California and via treaty with Mexico. It is assigned to and held by an individual entity separate from the priority system of water allocation to which all other water in Lake Mead available for delivery in the Lower Division is subject.2
As of 2024, the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, the Gila River Indian Community, the Colorado River Indian Tribes, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, the Imperial Irrigation District, the Southern Nevada Water Authority and the Republic of Mexico hold accounts of assigned water in Lake Mead.
Generally, water in Lake Mead available to but not ordered by one Colorado River contract entitlement holder can be ordered by another for delivery. Thus, for assigned water to be held in Lake Mead, several entities with contracts to Colorado River water must agree to forego their rights to order the same water over all of the years that the assigned water is held in Lake Mead. These entities signed a Forbearance Agreement in which they agreed not to order another entityโs assigned water under certain conditions. The Forbearance Agreement expires on December 31, 2025 but forbearance provisions for assigned water created through intentional conservation that exists as of that date continue through 2036 and through 2056 for assigned water created through other means.
Despite the efforts taken through the 2007 Guidelines, and due to chronic over-allocation of the river and continuing drought, water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead are at or near historic lows. To address continuing declines in water storage, various entities in Arizona, California and Nevada entered into several agreements including the 2019 Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan, the 2021 500+ Agreement and the 2023 System Conservation Agreement. Through these agreements the states committed to:
Voluntarily leave specified volumes of water in Lake Mead as Drought Contingency Plan contributions 3ย through the year 2026.
The voluntary contribution of water totals 192,000 acre-feet per year for Arizona between Lake Mead water levels below 1,090โ and above 1,045โ and totals 240,000 acre-feet per year below 1,045โ.
The voluntary contribution of water totals 8,000 and 10,000 acre-feet per year for Nevada at these levels. California did not agree to voluntary contributions of water at Lake Mead water levels above 1,045โ.
2. Through the year 2026, voluntarily leave some water in Lake Mead as unassigned water.
Unassigned water in Lake Mead belongs to no one entity and bolsters the supply of water available through the priority system to all Colorado River contract entitlement holders in the Lower Division (referred to as โSystem Conservationโ).
The states agreed to leave approximately three million acre-feet of unassigned water in Lake Mead. The federal government paid various entities with entitlements to Colorado River water, such as municipal water providers, agricultural interests, Tribes and mining companies to leave this water in Lake Mead.
The Secretary agreed to take affirmative actions to create or conserve 100,000 acre-feet per annum or more of Colorado River system water to contribute to conservation of water supplies in Lake Mead.
For unassigned water to be left in Lake Mead, several entities with contracts to Colorado River water must agree to forego their rights to order the same water. However, in the case of System Conservation, the water is held in Lake Mead only in the year the conservation takes place and subsequently becomes available the next year for delivery through the priority system. A group of entities, including the Director of Water Resources on behalf of the State of Arizona, signed various forbearance agreements in which they agreed not to order another entityโs conserved water. In these cases, forbearance is only required in the same year in which the system conservation activity takes place. These agreements expire at the end of 2026.
If no new set of operational guidelines is in place, upon expiration of the 2007 Guidelines and the Forbearance Agreements:
Rules for annual releases of water from Lake Powell into Lake Mead revert to the guidelines set forth in the LROC.
Generally, annual releases from Lake Powell to Lake Mead are set at 8.23 million acre-feet as an objective subject to Secretarial discretion and other factors. Arguably the Secretary has more discretion under LROC to set annual releases than under the 2007 Guidelines, which more precisely define releases based on relative water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead.
2. The specified shortages assessed to Arizona and Nevada under the 2007 Guidelines become moot and shortage determinations revert to the Secretaryโs authority, which has been broadly interpreted in times of shortage by the U.S. Supreme Court in its 1963 decision, Arizona v. California.
Under LROC, the Secretary has authority to โdetermine from time to time when insufficient mainstream water is available to satisfy annual consumptive use requirements of 7,500,000 acre-feetโ after consideration of various factors.
โข When insufficient water is available,
oย Deliveries through the Central Arizona Project are cut to the extent necessary to meet the demands of more senior Colorado River rights or entitlement holders in Arizona, California and Nevada.
oย If after these cuts there still remains insufficient water available to meet the demands of more senior Colorado River contract entitlement holders, the shortage provisions of Article II(B)(3) of the decree in Arizona v. California become effective, meaning that the rights of the Chemehuevi Indian, Cocopah Indian, Fort Yuma Indian, Colorado River Indian and Fort Mohave Indian Reservations are satisfied first, without regard to state lines, in order of their priority dates, and then present perfected rights are satisfied according to priority.
3. Some, but not all, forms of assigned water can no longer be created.
Creation of assigned water in Lake Mead through extraordinary conservation activities can no longer occur.
Creation of assigned water through importation of non-Colorado River system water and through certain tributary water into the Colorado River mainstem can continue to occur.
Creation of a special class of assigned water, called Developed Drought Supply, can continue to occur. Developed Drought Supply water can only be created during declared shortages and must be delivered in the same year it is created.
Rights to hold and deliver existing assigned water continue through 2036 for assigned water created through extraordinary conservation activities and through 2057 for assigned water used for Drought Contingency Plan contributions, and created through tributary water importation, non- Colorado River system water importation and Developed Drought Supply water.
Colorado River contract entitlement holders could theoretically continue to voluntarily leave water in Lake Mead as unassigned water, either compensated or not, but the expiration of the forbearance agreements means that another entity could simply order that same water for delivery.
Deliveries of Colorado River water to the Republic of Mexico are governed under a 1944 treaty and subsequent treaty minutes. Through various treaty minutes Mexico agreed to cuts to its deliveries under certain shortage conditions. These treaty minutes also allow Mexico to create assigned water in Lake Mead. The provisions regarding cuts to Mexican deliveries during shortage and the creation of Mexican assigned water expire at the end of 2026, though Mexico can continue to hold and request delivery of existing assigned water under generally the same terms and conditions that govern assigned water created by the Lower Division states through extraordinary conservation activities and used for Drought Contingency Plan contributions.
What Expiration of the 2007 Guidelines and the Forbearance Agreements Means for Arizona
Absent additional guidance from the Secretary or an agreement among the seven states that share the Colorado River, and assuming continued poor hydrology and runoff, water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead will continue to decline and Arizona can expect potentially very deep cuts to the Colorado River water imported into central Arizona via the Central Arizona Project. Eventually cuts could be deep enough to impact higher priority water users in Mohave, La Paz and Yuma Counties.
If less than 82,500,000 acre-feet of water is delivered to the Lower Division over any ten consecutive years, the United States and the Upper Division may have to contend with a legal demand from the Lower Division under Article 3.d of the Colorado Compact, which states that the Upper Division States โwill not cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre-feet for any period of ten consecutive years.โ The Lower Division asserts that the Upper Division is also responsible to deliver half of the obligation to Mexico, bringing the total ten-year obligation to 82,500,000 acre-feet. Under continued poor hydrology and runoff, it is likely that the ten-year consecutive total will fall below 82,500,000 in 2027. [ed. emphasis mine]
1ย If Lake Powell were drawn down too far while Lake Mead remained relatively full, the risk that deliveries at Lee Ferry would be depleted below an aggregate of 75,000,000 acre-feet over ten consecutive years would increase, which would put the Upper Division at risk of failing to meet Colorado Compact requirements. At the same time, keeping Lake Mead relatively full avoids deep water shortages in the Lower Division. A goal of equalization between the reservoirs balances these risks.
2 Though, holders of Priority 1-3 entitlements would likely contest the Secretaryโs authority to cut their deliveries while withholding assigned water from the priority system.
3ย If assigned water is chosen as the form of DCP contribution, it remains recoverable above elevation 1,110 until 2057.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
On August 21, Hurricane Erin passed about 200 miles east of North Carolinaโs Outer Banks, with minimal weather impacts aside from gusty winds along portions of the Atlantic Seaboard. A peak northerly wind gust to 43 mph was clocked on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. More broadly, Erin resulted in an extended period of Atlantic coastal impacts, such as life-threatening surf and higher-than-normal tides. Meanwhile, patchy downpours maintained adequate to locally excessive soil moisture in much of the upper Midwest, while locally heavy showers dotted the central and southern Plains and the lower Southeast. However, mostly dry weather in many other areas across the central and eastern U.S. led to declining topsoil moisture reserves, especially where combined with late-summer heat. Cooler air arrived, however, late in the drought-monitoring period, starting in the North and soon reaching all areas east of the Rockies but the northern High Plains and the Deep South. Meanwhile in the West, hot, mostly dry weather prevailed until late in the period, when shower activity increased and began to spread northward….
The High Plains region experienced a mix of drought improvement and deterioration. The regionโs most significant drought exists across western sections of Colorado and Wyoming. On August 24, statewide topsoil moistureโas reported by the U.S. Department of Agricultureโwas rated 70% very short to short in Wyoming. During the drought-monitoring period, the most significant drought improvement occurred in central Colorado, although there were also targeted improvements in Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota…
Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending August 26, 2025.
A hot weather pattern gradually yielded to increasingly cloudy and showery weather. In most areas, however, showers were insufficient to result in significant drought relief, except in central Colorado and environs. Still, there were several episodes of significant weather, including a thunderstorm-fueled haboob on August 25 in Phoenix, Arizona, where high winds (clocked to 70 mph at Sky Harbor International Airport) and near-zero visibility in blowing dust led to travel and electrical disruptions. By August 26, at the end of the drought-monitoring period, shower activity began to shift farther north and east. In the Northwest, where hot, dry weather prevailed for much of the period, there was some drought expansion, with two previously separate areas of severe drought (D2) merging across eastern Washington. Some of the worst agricultural conditions in the country have been noted in recent weeks across Washington, with the U.S. Department of Agriculture reporting that 47% of the stateโs rangeland and pastures were rated in very poor to poor condition on August 24. On the same date, Washington led the U.S. with 57% of its barley and 53% of its spring wheat rated very poor to poor…
Flash-drought conditions across the mid-South contrasted with the arrival of heavy rain in Oklahoma and neighboring areas. On August 24, prior to the heavy rain, statewide topsoil moisture was rated 60% very short to short in Texas, along with 53% in Oklahoma. Portions of central and northwestern Oklahoma received 3 to 6 inches of rain during the drought-monitoring period. Meanwhile, topsoil moisture was rated more than one-half very short to short on August 24 in Arkansas (92%), Tennessee (63%), and Mississippi (53%). Aside from eastern Tennessee, southern Mississippi, and west-central Arkansas, where some heavy rain fell, conditions generally worsened across those three states, with broad expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2)…
Looking Ahead
A generally cool weather pattern will persist in most areas of the country for the remainder of the month. However, heat will gradually return across the West, with temperatures in parts of the Desert Southwest topping 110ยฐF by the last day of August. East of the Rockies, anomalous warmth should be limited to the northern High Plains and the Deep South, mainly from southern Texas to southern Florida. Meanwhile, much of West will experience a drying trend, although late-month downpours in portions of the central and southern Rockies could lead to flash flooding and debris flows, especially on burn-scarred hillsides. Heavy, late-month rainfall (locally 2 to 4 inches or more) may also affect an area stretching from the mid-South to the southern Atlantic Coast. In contrast, little or no rain will fall during the next 5 days from the middle Mississippi Valley into the middle Atlantic States.
The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for September 2 โ 6 calls for the likelihood of below-normal temperatures in the central and eastern U.S., aside from warmer-than-normal weather in northern Maine, peninsular Florida, and the western Gulf Coast region. In contrast, late-summer warmth will dominate the West, except in the central and southern Rockies. Meanwhile, near- or above-normal precipitation across most of the country should contrast with drier-than-normal conditions in parts of the Pacific Northwest.
US Drought Monitor one week change map ending August 26, 2025.
Whether its potable water, agricultural needs, or recreation, seven different states between Colorado and the Pacific Ocean actively rely on the water that flows through Garfield County. Yet with consistently increasing yearly temperatures, decreasing yearly snowpacks, and constant threat of wildfires โ the health of the legendary watershed has never been more important. The Colorado, Roaring Fork, Crystal, and Frying Pan Rivers all have individual and unique impacts that stretch from the local economy to produce and amenities…Following a โmixedโ winter resulting in the lowest snowpack seen in 10 years, it was not unexpected that riverflows would fail to hit an 80-year median this summer season. But a dramatically dry summer took a bad situation and made it worse.
In 2025, the Colorado River peaked barely above 4,000 Cubic Feet per Second (CFS), measured by theย United States Geological Survey near Dotsero. The 4,120 CFS peak on June 3 fell far short of the median of 6,200 CFS (1940-2025)…[Brendon] Langenhuizen said he was more concerned about the near-nonexistent monsoonal season this summer โ and its implications for what future monsoon seasons could look like.
โThe monsoons just arenโt really coming in like they were forecasted to three months ago,โ he said.
He explained that the supplement of heavy rains in the higher alpine can both briefly reinvigorate the tributaries and provide much needed assistance to the ranching community.
โ(The peak) means that itโs just a drier year,โ Langenhuizen said. โI think that not getting those monsoons โ which havenโt shown up yet โ is really what has put us into this situation. We had average snowfall to lower yield, which put us into this dry category of year, and we havenโt had those monsoons that bolster those flows later throughout the late summer months.โย
Monsoon storm near Tucson 2021. Image credit: Roberto (Bear) Guerra/High Country News
Hard times in the Colorado River region. A near-average snowpack dissipated into an inflow into Powell Reservoir of only 40 percent of average; dry soils in the headwaters and high deserts, and increased evaporation and plant transpiration in a warming world are taking big tolls. And the negotiators for the seven Basin states, trying to work out a river management plan to replace the failing current management strategies, with the 30 Indian nations and Mexico looking over their shoulders, are continuing toโฆ negotiate. Trumpโs Interior Department officials have given then until November to negotiate a draft plan for beyond 2026.
Projected Lake Powell end-of-month physical elevations from the latest 24-Month Study inflow scenarios.
Meanwhile the Bureau of Reclamation has issued its annual 24-month projection, and it has no good news. Its worst case scenario โ the one everyone looks at โ suggests that, barring a huge winter this year, Powell Reservoir might drop to the elevation at which it can no longer produce hydropower by late fall 2026 โ at which point it cannot even make large deliveries downstream, because all the water would then have to go through four antique tubes never meant to carry that much water 24/7. This could undermine the best-laid plans of the negotiators, should they achieve a plan, with no ability to move sufficient water past Glen Canyon Dam until the reservoir filled back up to the power level. No plans have been announced for creating a Glen Canyon Dam bypass.
All the news dribbling out of the negotiations indicate that the negotiators persist in carrying forward the Colorado River Compactโs division of the river into Upper and Lower Basins. Do they not see that this is no longer necessary, or even desirable โ nothing but a cause of conflict and contention?
When representatives from the seven Colorado River Basin states gathered in Washington in January 1922, six of the states knew what they wanted: they wanted a seven-way division of the consumptive use of the riverโs waters that would transcend on the interstate level the appropriation doctrine all seven states adhered to intrastate.
They wanted this because southern California, the seventh state, was growing so fast, and already using so much of the riverโs water, that the other six knew they would be losers in a seven-state horse race to appropriate the riverโs water. The representatives all accepted the first-come first-served appropriation law as holy writ within their states, but saw its limits when looking at the whole river and the regional challenge of uneven development.
California sat down with the other six states because at that point, the other six states held a big card: California needed a interstate river to control floods and โrationalizeโ the flow and distribution of the riverโs water, rather than watching an uncontrolled flood of snowmelt โwasteโ most of the water to the ocean. And California knew that Congress would provide for that big dam only if all seven states were sure they would have a share of the water, once the river was controlled. So California had to participate in setting long-term limits on itself in order to get what it needed in the short term.
But after several days of trying to work out that seven-way division, the compact negotiators gave up in frustration. Each negotiator had come with estimates of his stateโs future water needs based on potentially arable land, mining-generated industry, possible urban development. Not really knowing what the future would bring did not dim their estimates at the turn of the 20th century, with the imperial impetus to โcreate our own realityโ just kicking into high gear. But by the time the seven negotiators had laid out their statesโ envisioned water needs, the basin-wide total was half again even the Bureau of Reclamationโs rosiest estimates of Colorado River flows. And no one wanted to cut their estimates, go home to tell their governor and legislators heโd had to diminish the stateโs envisioned future by a quarter or so.
Several of the frustrated negotiators thought they should abandon the whole idea of an interstate compact, but the federal representative and chairman, Herbert Hoover โ himself an engineer eager to see the big dam built โ persuaded them to stay with the idea for the rest of the year. They convened for some hearings around the west in the summer, and had a tour of the proposed big dam sites. But then Hoover and Coloradoโs representative to the commission, Delph Carpenter, began circulating the idea of a two-basin division to break the impasse over the seven-way division, and Hoover was able to convene a November charrette to work until a compact was done.
Toward the end of an eleven-day marathon at a resort near Santa Fe, with 18 transcribed sessions and who knows how many informal barroom and hotel room caucuses, Chairman Hoover summarized their situation:
“We finally reached, in effect, this general conclusion as to the form of the compact, and that was that none of the figures and data in our possession, or within the possibility of possession at this time were sufficient upon which we could make an equitable division of the waters of the Colorado River [in perpetuity]โฆ.ย [W]e make now, for lack of a better word, a temporary equitable division, reserving a certain portion of the flow of the river to the hands of those men who may come after us, possessed of a far greater fund of information; that they can make a further division of the river at such a time, and in the meantime we shall take such means at this moment to protect the rights of either basin as will assure the continued development of the river. (Text from the 12thย of 18 transcribed November meetings, boldface added)“
That was the Colorado River Compact as seen in process by the commission chairman: โa temporary equitable divisionโ to be refined and finished when โa greater fund of informationโ about both the riverโs flows and the flow of the future was known. No one โ with the probable exception of Delph Carpenter โ was very happy with the Compact the commissioners took home to their states. Arizona refused to ratify it, and it took several years to get it through the other six state legislatures. But the U.S. Congress was actually somewhat eager to develop the river, making its desert lands available for development, and decided that six of the seven states on board was good enough. The Boulder Canyon Project Act was passed in 1928, and Hoover โ then President โ was able to launch construction of not just the huge Hoover Dam, but Parker Dam as the holding bay for the Metropolitan Water Districtโs 250-mile aqueduct, and the Imperial Dam and All-American Canal to carry water to the Imperial and Coachella Valleys โ a major regional development that really set a course for the 20thย century.
Enabling that, and what followed over the next four or five decades, did achieve the Compact goal to โsecure the expeditious agricultural and industrial development of the Colorado River Basin,โ probably the major goal stated in its preamble (Article I) for most of those involved. But a century later we can say pretty definitely that its โtemporary equitable divisionโ (still apparently regarded as permanent), has not achieved most of the other goals listed in the preamble. It did not โprovide for the equitable division and apportionment of the use of the waters,โ either in the division between Basins explicit in Article III(a) nor in the relationship between the two Basins stated in Article III(d); it obviously did not โpromote interstate comityโ; and the two-basin division did not โremove causes of present and future controversies.โ If anything, the Compact created controversies with badly written sections like Article III(c) on the Mexican obligation, and Article III(d) on interbasin โobligations.โ (If you would like to review the Compact, you can find it here.)
More to the point โ it is possible now to achieve what the 1922 commissioners originally wanted: an equitable seven-way division of the use of the river with a share for Mexico, which renders the two-basin โtemporary divisionโ irrelevant and burdensome.
The seven-way division has been effected, not through interstate negotiation but through the โcontinued development of the riverโ; today, the seven states and Mexico all know, practically to the acre-foot, what has evolved as their share of the river as we have known it โ the 14.6 million acre-foot average flow of the development period, the 1930s through the 1990s.
Allotments for the three Lower Basin states were set by the Boulder Canyon Project Act in 1929 as acre-foot portions of the Compact allotment of 7.5 maf, and confirmed by the Supreme Court in its 1963-4 Arizona v. California decision. Mexico received its share, 1.5 maf, in a 1944 treaty negotiated through the U.S. State Department. And the four Upper Basin states negotiated a compact for their share of the river in 1948 โ by then known to be a variable quantity, usually less than the Compactโs allotment of 7.5 maf, so they divided their fluctuating share by percentages.
Native America in the Colorado River Basin. Credit: USBR
The โfederal reserved rightsโ of the Basinโs 30 Indian nations โ barely given a โplaceholderโ in the Compact โ have been shoehorned in as state responsibilities through the 1952 โMcCarran Amendmentโ to a resource bill; this says that all federal reserved water rights, for all public lands as well as the Indian reservations, have to be adjudicated in the state water courts. The โequityโ of this is questionable; some states have only a few Indian nations; Arizona has 22 of them. Most of the Indian nations that have not already achieved some water rights are working on โsettlementsโ out of court, negotiating with those who have been using water for which the Indians had a prior claim (dating from the creation of their reservation) for water and money with which to develop the water they can get. The federal government puts up much of the money for the development of Indian water rights; there is still a long way to go in correcting this long-standing dereliction and shame, but there has been more activity in the past couple decades than in the previous century.
The point being โ nearly everyone knows with some accuracy how much water they have had to use from the Colorado River โ in the 20th century. Hardly anyone is happy with the resulting numbers, but we also all know that this is all the water there is โ or was, in the 20th century. The river has been divided among the states and nations, de facto, if not yet de jure.
The structural deficit refers to the consumption by Lower Basin states of more water than enters Lake Mead each year. The deficit, which includes losses from evaporation, is estimated at 1.2 million acre-feet a year. (Image: Central Arizona Project circa 2019)
The alarming draw-down of the riverโs major reservoirs in the early 21stcentury to date has been only partially caused by the โdroughtโ and permanent climate-related aridification. The bulk of the draw-down has been a โstructural deficitโ stemming from the Lower Basin statesโ blithe refusal to incorporate their โsystem lossesโ โ evaporation and transpiration, riparian losses, etc โ and their portion of the Mexican share into their allotments, preferring to let the amenable Bureau release them as โsurplusโ from Powell and Mead storage โ a surplus that has not existed since the Central Arizona Project began to come on line after 1985, along with increased Upper Basin uses (still well below its โCompact allotmentโ). The Compact failed to include system loss provisions โ probably around 12-14 percent of the water that flows from the headwaters snowpack.
The good news there is that, in the planning for river management beyond 2026, the Lower Basin states have agreed to absorb the โstructural deficitโ and their share of the Mexican obligation into their river shares. The Upper Basin users have already absorbed their system losses by the time the Bureau moves Lower Basin water out of Powell.
It is not rocket science to lay out the seven-states-plus-Mexico division of the waters in a chart, a feat impossible in 1922, but largely accomplished de facto by the Compactโs century mark โ a chart without any reference to the โtemporary equitable divisionโ into two basins. If we were to eliminate the two-basin division form our future management plans, we would unload quite a lot of unnecessary baggage. We would be much closer to thinking of the Colorado again as one river, with one set of challenges for everyone, rather than this โCold Warโ between Upper and Lower.
The big challenge comes in trying to fit that division of the 14.6 maf river of 1930-2000 into the river we have today โ ~12.5 maf, and dropping incrementally but steadily.
If we lived in a fair, just and moral universe, resolution of management guidelines for the future of the one river would just be a matter of applying basic high school math: if a stateโs allotment (including a proportionate share of system losses) of a 14.6 maf river is X maf, what will be that stateโs new allotment if the riverโs volume drops to 12.5 maf? Or to 11.5 maf by 2050? Easy: you just convert the stateโs allotment to a percentage of the 14.6 maf river, and multiply those percentages by 12.5 maf, or whatever the flow has dropped too. Do that for all users and, presto, thereโs everyoneโs new 21st-century allotment, learn how to live with it โ
Wups. Uh-oh. One can already hear the โharrumphingโ firing up in the Imperial Valley: what about our senior water rights?! If you say we have to take the same cuts as everyone else, weโll see you in court!
The Interior Departmentโs current acting assistant secretary for water and science, Scott Cameron, actually spoke to that eventuality or probability in a meeting of water mavens in Arizona: โHaving senior water rights is a wonderful thing, but having senior water rights does not give you a free pass to ignore whatโs happening in the greater community.โ
Whatโs happening in the greater community is diminishing flows for everyone due to a warming, drying climate that is everyoneโs and no oneโs fault โ a problem of a different order of magnitude from the issues the senior-junior appropriation doctrine developed to resolve. If Asst. Secretary Cameronโs perception (unusually perceptive from an official in the Trump administration) were to prevail as federal policy, it might facilitate a serious discussion in the arid West about how far and how high a body of law should be applied, that originated for working out squabbles between neighbors โ with โfirst-come first-servedโ the one-size-fits-all resolution. A resolution that is usually transcended locally in dry times with โgentlemenโs agreementsโ to share the pain between neighbors who have also become friends.
Members of the Colorado River Commission, in Santa Fe in 1922, after signing the Colorado River Compact. From left, W. S. Norviel (Arizona), Delph E. Carpenter (Colorado), Herbert Hoover (Secretary of Commerce and Chairman of Commission), R. E. Caldwell (Utah), Clarence C. Stetson (Executive Secretary of Commission), Stephen B. Davis, Jr. (New Mexico), Frank C. Emerson (Wyoming), W. F. McClure (California), and James G. Scrugham (Nevada)
CREDIT: COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY WATER RESOURCES ARCHIVE via Aspen Journalism
The westerners who convened for the 1922 compact commission wanted to suspend at the interstate level the appropriation doctrine they all adhered at home, for good reasons involving the uneven pace of regional development. We are now confronting a reduced volume of water for everyone, caused by a changing climate that is no oneโs and everyoneโs fault. Is this not a problem on a scale with the problem that convened a Compact commission a century ago to suspend โ or more accurately, maybe, transcend โ the appropriation doctrine at the interstate level?
Well โ we keep getting news every day about the fairness, justice and morality of our small sector of the universe. Pray for rain; itโs more likely.
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
Colorado River “Beginnings”. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism
Click the link to read the article on the AZCentral.com website (Kate Gallego, Chad Franke, Tom Kiernan and Manuel Heart). Here’s an excerpt:
August 25, 2025
Key Points
The Colorado River, a vital resource for millions, has reached a critical tipping point, thanks to drought and overuse.
The river needs urgent, collaborative action and flexible solutions for long-term water security.
Failure to reach agreements risks costly litigation and uncertain outcomes.
Reservoirs like Lakes Mead and Powell are again approaching record lows, and every water user is being affected…Against this backdrop, we urgently need unified action. We must proactively adjust our plans given the Colorado Riverโs changing water supply. We must confront the crisis with urgency and collaboration to build a workable water future for the broad network of Colorado River interests.ย To succeed, comprehensive, forward-looking solutions must replace the current crisis-to-crisis management approach…
Solutions must be rooted in flexibility, innovation and cooperation โ and acknowledge both the urgency of todayโs water supply shortages and the need for long-term water reliability and resilience.ย Doing so will require the immediate development of durable agreements โ not just between Upper and Lower Basin states, but also among the states, U.S. and tribes, and between the U.S. and Mexico โ that re-balance water demands with the riverโs shrinking supply…Creating comprehensive, forward-looking solutions also requires immediate engagement with tribes, water users and other stakeholders. Their input is needed to tailor flexible strategies that meet the needs of different water users across various basin geographies, including the mountain headwaters, the Colorado Plateau and the desert Southwest…Without such tools and agreements, the Colorado Riverโs future will be decided by the courts following litigation that inevitably breeds a failure of dialogue, delays progress and leads to costly, drawn-out battles. At the end of that road lies a loss of local control as well as uncertain and harmful outcomes to water users throughout the basin.
Glen Canyon Dam May 2022. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots
Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):
August 18, 2025
The words โurgencyโ and โimmediate actionโ were used by Trump administration officials on Aug. 15 in releasing the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 24-month study for the Colorado River Basin.
The study sees a high probability of water levels of Lake Powell falling to within 48 feet of the minimum power pool by January. That elevation, 3,490 feet above sea level, is the reservoirโs lowest level at which hydroelectricity can be produced. That has not happened since soon after Powell began filling after completion of Glen Canyon Dam in 1966.
โThis underscores the importance of immediate action to secure the future of the Colorado River,โ said David Palumbo, acting commissioner for the agency.
Scott Cameron, the acting assistant secretary for water and science in the Department of Interior, had similar words of warning to the seven states that share use of the river.
โAs the basin prepares for the transition to post-2026 operating guidelines, the urgency for the seven Colorado River Basin states to reach a consensus agreement has never been clearer,โ said Cameron. โWe cannot afford to delay.โ
The announcement cited โunprecedented droughtโ but made no mention of climate change. This seems to be a theme. [ed. emphasis mine]
Cameron, at the Getches-Wilkinson Centerโs annual water seminar in Boulder during June, talked for 24 minutes without once mentioning climate change. He even answered a question about climate change without using the phrase. He did seem to acknowledge it, saying that in the โreal worldโ there is less water than before, โand that is probably not going to change a whole bunch.โ
Might the situation be even worse than what Bureau of Reclamation has projected will be most likely?
A bias of optimism
On Aug. 14, a day before the bureauโs release of the 24-month study, John Fleck and others posted an analysis on Fleckโs Inkstain that warned the study would likely be overly optimistic.
The problem, explained Fleck and his co-authors, is that the โassumptions underlying the study do not fully capture the climate-change driven aridification of the Colorado River Basin.โ
The precipitation received from October through July in the Colorado River Basin fits in with a theme that is best understood when coupled with rising temperatures, which produces greater evaporation and transpiration. Image/Western Water Assessment
The bureau uses a 30-year average in predicting what lies ahead. However, using the hydrology of the Colorado River Basin since the 1990s no longer provides the same usefulness in predicting what lies ahead during the next 24 months. The climate is changing too fast.
In that paper, Milley and his co-authors argued that human-induced climate changes were altering the means and extremes of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and the rates of runoff in rivers. As such, they contended, using the old models to guide water management no longer worked as well.
In their posting at Inkstain, Fleck and his coauthors โ Anne Castle, Erick Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen and Katherine Tara โ noted that the Bureau of Reclamationโs 24-month study a year ago found that the โmost probableโ level for Powell would be 3,593 at the end of July 2025.
It was 38 feet lower than the projection. It had been another so-so or worse winter and then an early, warm spring.
This, they said, illustrated the bias toward optimism in the models used by the agency. That bias had been detailed in a 2022 study of past projections by a team led by Jian Wang of the Utah State Center for Colorado River Studies.
โMost probableโ in the Bureau of Reclamation projections occupied a band of 80% likelihood. The bureau also issues maximum and minimum probable scenarios.
Fleck and his team contend that the bureauโs โminimum probable scenario has become the most valuable in providing a reliable indicator of the futureโ for Colorado River flows.
This past winter was mediocre, near average snowfall in some basins but among the worst in the San Juans. Spring was warm or more in many places, and rains in July were almost entirely absent.
The preliminary estimated inflow into Powell for April through July was 41% of the average from 1991 through 2020, according to the bureauโs most-probable study. During July, runoff slipped to 12% of that 30-year average.
Might fortunes soon be reversed? Not likely in months ahead, said Fleck and his team. They noted this summerโs weak monsoon for most of the upper basin coupled with the seasonal outlook by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Together, they point to a warmer and drier than average fall.
โItโs a good bet that this trend will continue at least through winter,โ they wrote.
As it stands, levels in Lake Mead, downstream from Powell, will necessitate cuts in the lower-basin as required by several agreements reached between 2007 and 2019. Arizona is to see an 18% cut and Nevada a 7% cut in their annual apportionments. Mexico is to get 5% less than its annual allotment. In acre-feet, thatโs 412,000 for Arizona, 21,000 for Nevada, and 80,000 for Mexico.
A new agreement
The big story continues to be what agreements the seven basin states can achieve in recognition of the inadequacy of past agreements given reduced flows.
Drought as conventionally understood is part of the story, but only a part. A 2017 study by Jonathan Overpeck and Brad Udall, โThe 21st Century Hot Drought and Implications for the Future,โconcluded that between a third and a half of reduced flows in the Colorado from 2000 to 2014 could be attributed to the rising greenhouse gas emissions. They spoke about โmegadrought,โ a word now common in Colorado River discussions, as is โaridification.โ
This year has brought more studies that strengthen the evidence. Included is a study published just last week in Nature, that identifies new ways that the warming climate has altered the hydrology of Colorado and other southwestern states. See: โWhy rain and snow skip the Southwest.โ
In 2018, an agreement among the states was reached regarding how to deal with drought. It was universally recognized as an interim agreement, with a final agreement to be reached in advance of a 2026 deadline. That deadline is now close at hand.
That impending deadline was alluded to in the comments of the federal officials.
โHealth of the Colorado River system and the livelihoods that depend on it are relying on our ability to collaborate effectively and craft forward-thinking solutions that prioritize conservation, efficiency, and resilience,โ said Cameron, Interiorโs undersecretary, in the Aug. 15 announcement.
In June, Cameron had called on the Colorado River Basin states to submit details of a preliminary operations agreement by mid-November and share a final seven-state proposal by mid-February 2026. The plan would be to reach a final decision in the summer of 2026 with implementation beginning in October 2026.
Non-government organizations issued statements also calling for the states to figure out a way forward.
โThis is not just a crisis. Itโs also a call to action to use remaining time wisely to replace our current, reactive, emergency-based management framework with new, long-term solutions,โ said John Berggren, the regional policy manager for Western Resource Advocates. โWe canโt litigate our way out โ we must collaborate forward.โ
For many months, all reports suggested that the four-upper basin states โ who speak with one voice in these negotiations โ and the three lower-basin states remained far apart. A story on June 27 in the Las Vegas Review Journal described the meetings as โtenseโ and โdeadlocked.โ
Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico along with Colorado constitute the upper basin. Arizona, Nevada and California make up the lower basin.
Becky Mitchell, Coloradoโs representative in the negotiations, told a forum in Silverthorne covered by Big Pivots in May that hydrologic risk must be shared between the upper basin and the lower-basin states.
The Blue River flowing through Silverthorne just below Dillon Dam in May 2025. Photo/Allen Best
This sore spot has long festered. The Colorado River Compact of 1922 specified that the upper basin states โwill not cause the flow of the river at Lee Ferry to be depletedโ below an aggregate of 75 million acre-feet for any 10 consecutive years. The location is between Glen Canyon and the Grand Canyon.
But what if the river fails to deliver that much water? Upper basin states have delivered that volume so far, but thatโs mostly because Wyoming, in particular, has not developed what was expected 100 yeas ago.
Those who had originally gathered in Santa Fe in 1922 to negotiate the compact had understood drought, but only as a temporary thing. They had no extensive long-term perspective โ and chose to ignore what evidence was at hand, according to a 2019 book by Fleck and Kuhn, โScience be Dammed: How Ignoring Inconvenient Science Drained the Colorado River.โ
Coloradoโs beef and that of other upper-basin states has been that the two big dams on the river provided certainty for the lower-basin states to get water. However, the headwaters states have no certainty. They must live with what Mother Nature provides. They have balked at cutting water use to provide certainty for downstream states. They want the risk shared.
Natural flow proposal
In June came the first public word of what may have been a breakthrough. It is called the โnatural flow proposal.โ As explained by Tom Buschatzke, the director of Arizona Water Resources, to the Arizona Republic in a story on June 18, the idea is to focus less on who gets what and more on what the river can realistically provide.
โWe do have to recognize what the hydrologic risks are to us,โ he said after presenting the idea to a committee,โ and we have to kind of find an equitable way to share those risks.โ
That idea being discussed would employ a rolling three-year average of the natural flow of the river. Natural would be defined as the volume if there were no diversions and impoundments.
Buschatzke โ a frequent visitor at the Colorado River forum sponsored by the University of Coloradoโs Getches-Wilkinson Center each June โ pointed out that the goal would be to spread the pain equitably, not equally. The lower basin would need more water than the upper basin, which has still to develop all the water allocated it in the 1922 compact.
โIt is not 50-50,โ he told represents at the June 17 meeting. โI wonโt try to speculate on what the number might be.โ
California uses the most water of any state in the Colorado River Basin, partly for its cities along the Pacific Coast but a substantial amount for agriculture in the Imperial Valley. Photo December 2015/Allen Best
A few weeks later, John Entsminger, Nevadaโs representative in interstate talks, similarly was vague about details. โItโs not something where I can tell you what the score is in the third inning: the baseball game is still being played,โ he told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Details remain sparse, he added.
โEverybodyโs pretty much accepted that weโve got to come up with a new formula for dividing the river,โ Mark Squillace, an environmental law professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder, told the Las Vegas newspaper. โThe devilโs in the details about getting the numbers right.โ
According to the best information that Big Pivots was able to obtain, there is still no agreement about what the percentage should be, although it is not 50-50.
Mitchell, Coloradoโs representative on the Upper Colorado River Commission (and its acting chair), told the Review-Journal that the 2007 guidelines that provide the management map of the riverโs operations โare not ustainable, because the water is just not there. Itโs not in storage, and itโs not in the river.โ
For a late-June story in Politicoโs E&E, Mitchell described the natural flows idea as a math problem. โThe concept under discussion is that Powell would release a certain percentage of volume of the average of the last few years of natural flows, as measured at Lee Ferry,โ she said.
E&E described a more complex challenge.
โThe theory โ the premise of sharing the river based on how much water would travel downstream without dams or diversions or other human interventions โ is actually a complex mathematical problem, rife with potential pitfalls and technical issues.โ
This idea of basing releases from Lake Powell likely would take several years to implement. As such, it would not immediately impact levels in the reservoir.
As for the minimum power pool at Powell, thatโs the level at which hydroelectricity can no longer be generated. Some 16 municipal and cooperative electrical utilities in Colorado get power from the dam. Those amounts tend to be smaller, about 5% or less, although important if the utilities are stretching to achieve decarbonization goals.
The greatest value of Glen Canyon is that if the Western grid has a blackout, the grid can be restarted with hydropower from the dam.
And too, the role of Congress
As administrator of the two big dams in the basin and several smaller ones, the federal government must figure out how to manage them consistently with the agreements among the states. It is also the formal administrator among the lower-basin states.
At the conference in Boulder, Cameron clearly said the federal government wants the states to figure out the solution. However, he also said that if the states cannot come to agreement, the federal government, as the administrator of the infrastructure, has authority to set policy, too.
And finally, he mentioned that the whole package may need to go to Congress, as was the case with the Colorado River Compact. It was approved in 1929. (Arizona had refused to endorse the compact until much later).
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
Lake Powell at Wahweap Marina as seen in December 2021. Dwindling streamflows and falling reservoir levels have made it more likely that what some experts call a Colorado River Compact โtripwireโ will be hit in 2027. Credit: Heather Sackett/Aspen Journalism
Climate change appears to have driven an ongoing 25-year shortfall in winter rains and mountain snows across the U.S. Southwest, worsening a regional water crisis thatโs also related to hotter temperatures and growing demand. Multiple studies now suggest that human-caused climate change is boosting an atmospheric pattern in the North Pacific that favors unusually low winter precipitation across the Southwest.
This weather pattern โ known to scientists as a negative mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO โ is one phase of a slow-moving swing between warm and cool temperatures in the northeast and tropical Pacific Ocean. The PDOโs monthly value for July was the lowest in 171 years of data (see Fig. 1 below).
Climate change was already implicated in warming temperatures that pull more moisture from the landscape and shorten periods of mountain snow cover, thus exacerbating the impacts of dry spells. But scientists had previously assumed that the PDOโs variations over decades, which affect the rainfall and snowfall itself, were largely natural.
A study published in Nature on Wednesday, August 13, finds that emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases and tiny sun-blocking particles called aerosols have driven long-term PDOchanges over the last few decades, depriving the Southwest of much-needed winter rain and snow.
Using new techniques to extract signal from noise in model output, the researchers found that โobserved PDO impacts โ including the ongoing multidecadal drought in the western United States โ can be largely attributed to human activity.โ [ed. emphasis mine}
Figure 1. Monthly variations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation from 1854 to present. Most months since 1998 have registered negative PDO values. Last monthโs reading of -4.00 (July 2025) was the lowest value in the entire 171-year dataset, and the current stretch of 67 consecutive months of negative PDO values is the longest on record. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)
For the past quarter-century, precipitation across the Southwest has been on par with the driest periods in modern history. As the landscape dries, sunshine is able to warm it more effectively, helping boost temperatures even more and worsening the drying effects on the rivers, reservoirs, and landscapes crucial for the Southwestโs growing population.
Until now, those temperature effects were believed to be the main human-caused climate factor in the mix.
But scientists looked more closely at the PDO in part because of its relationship to a better-known pattern, the El Niรฑo and La Niรฑa oscillations in the tropical Pacific that influence weather across the world. Shorter-term La Niรฑa events, lasting 1 to 3 years, are more common and can be stronger when the longer-term PDO phase is negative, and both of these patterns strongly favor drier-than-usual winters across the Southwest.
During the last 25 years, La Niรฑa has been in place for 12 winters versus just eight winters for El Niรฑo, a tilt that has helped to reduce winter precipitation in the Southwest. The latest outlook from NOAA predicts a near-even chance of La Niรฑa conditions yet again in 2025-26.
Figure 2. La Niรฑa causes the jet stream to move northward and to weaken over the eastern Pacific. During La Niรฑa winters, the Southwest tends to see warmer and drier conditions than usual. Since La Niรฑa conditions are more common during the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a negative PDO is likewise associated with warmer, drier conditions across the Southwest. (Image credit: NOAA)
The Southwestโs largest two reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead, were both running at less than a third of capacity as of August 3, and total inflow for the water year ending this summer was expected to be only about 50% of average.
In recent years, the Southwestโs normally scorching heat has intensified to levels that are smashing record after record. On August 7, Phoenix reached 118 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest reading ever observed there so late in any summer in data going back 130 years.
Experts in the Phoenix area have documented a major spike in heat mortality over the past decade, as population and vulnerabilities increase along with the heat itself. More than a thousand heat-related deaths were recorded in 2023 and 2024 alone.
"Phoenix is experiencing record-breaking, prolonged extreme heat driven by climate change, pushing the city into uncharted territory with growing risks to health, infrastructure, and daily life." via weather.com/news/climate…
Even more disconcerting is what the new work suggests for the Southwest going forward. The Nature study warns that as long as human-produced greenhouse gases and aerosols continue to produce these effects, โthe PDO will remain persistent in its negative state, driving continued precipitation deficits in the western U.S.โ
Confounding expectations
The puzzling behavior of the Pacific over the last several decades has drawn increasing scrutiny, especially since itโs long been expected that 21st-century warming would lead to an El Niรฑo-like pattern. Instead, the Pacific has behaved in the opposite fashion. Itโs been unclear why model projections of the PDO have been off track for so long.
โI donโt think weโve untangled all this yet, but I think this opens up new possibilities for what models are missing,โ said Jeremy Klavans of the University of Colorado Boulder, lead author of the Nature paper.
Figure 3. A schematic showing where sea surface temperatures are generally above and below average during the positive (warm) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The โwarmโ refers to the horseshoe-like arc of warmer-than-average readings from the Gulf of Alaska along the west coast of North America and into the eastern tropical Pacific, where it often coincides with an El Niรฑo event. Since 2000, most years have featured the opposite pattern, with the horseshoe in blue instead of red and the eastern Pacific often in a La Niรฑa mode. (Image credit:ย Adapted by NOAA Climate.govย from original by Matt Newman based on NOAA ERSSTv4 data.)
Figure 2. La Niรฑa causes the jet stream to move northward and to weaken over the eastern Pacific. During La Niรฑa winters, the Southwest tends to see warmer and drier conditions than usual. Since La Niรฑa conditions are more common during the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a negative PDO is likewise associated with warmer, drier conditions across the Southwest. (Image credit: NOAA)
Plucking the signal of climate change out of decades of noise
The large year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability in the PDO makes it hard to detect subtle but important longer-term trends. Moreover, climate models tend to exaggerate the peaks and valleys in the PDOโs natural variability.
Scientists increasingly study questions like the PDOโs recent behavior using model ensembles โ dozens of simulations from the same model for the same period, with tiny variations in the starting-point data that account for inherent uncertainty in models and observations. Klavans and colleagues found that at least 70 simulations were needed in order for a model ensemble to extract the longer-term climate-change influence from the natural variations. Their project ended up drawing on 572 ensemble members from 13 separate models.
Like a sound mixer at a recording studio boosting an instrument that would otherwise be drowned out, the researchers amped up the strength of the PDOโs longer-term climate change signal while retaining its shorter-term variability. After this adjustment, the models ended up doing a much better job of replicating the recent multi-decade drop in winter precipitation across the Southwest. This finding suggests that the fainter, longer-term signal, obscured until now, is actually a crucial part of whatโs happening.
Based on prior work in the Atlantic Ocean, it appears that the climate-change impact on the PDO stems from greenhouse gas increases as well as the global evolution of sun-blocking air pollution over the last few decades.
โWeโve now demonstrated the signal-to-noise problem in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific,โ Klavans said. In both cases, the signals of longer-term climate change in atmospheric patterns were getting drowned out by the noise of natural variability. The techniques employed to get around this problem are helping to reveal strengths in model performance that can now be accessed, according to Klavans: โWe think this example is just scratching the surface of what models can tell us more broadly about regional climate impacts.โ
The biggest El Niรฑo events can sometimes push the PDO into a positive mode that can persist for years or decades, but the strong El Niรฑo of 2023-24 didnโt accomplish that feat. Next time around, Klavans will be watching intently: โIf the eastern equatorial Pacific starts warming, if we get an El Niรฑo-like response, does it flip the PDO?โ
More sleuthing bolsters the case
Another recent paper, published last month in Nature Geoscience, reinforces the idea that climate change itself has pushed the Southwest into a lower-precipitation mode since the 1980s. Using a variety of model simulations, the authors show that sun-blocking aerosol emissions appear to have teamed up with the influence of human-produced warming in the tropics to favor persistently high pressure in the North Pacific. In turn, this negative-PDO-like pattern has helped steer wintertime precipitation away from the Southwest.
Climate scientists refer to these chains of events as โforcingsโ, meaning that something other than natural variability has driven, or forced, changes to weather and climate. Forcings can be anything from a one-time massive volcanic eruption to decades of sun-blocking pollution or centuries of greenhouse-gas emissions.
โThe main takeaway is that thereโs this forced signal in historical droughts for the Southwest since 1980, not only in temperature but also in the precipitation changes,โ said lead author Yan-Ning Kuo of Cornell University.
Thereโs been some research suggesting that the long-expected climate-change trend toward El Niรฑo-like patterns in the Pacific could finally emerge later this century as the world continues to warm. But even if that occurs, โit is unlikely to substantially alleviate the currently projected future drought risk,โ Kuo and colleagues warn in their new paper.
โFor the longest time, we chalked these precipitation changes up to natural variability,โ said Cornellโs Flavio Lehner, a co-author on the paper. โI think weโre revisiting that, and it heightens the stakes. If indeed the forcings continue to act in this way, then precipitation decline in the Southwest may continue. It makes a much stronger case for human influenceRead: Wet winter wonโt fix Colorado River woes
Clues from 6,000 years ago
Yet another just-published study โ this one looking back thousands of years โ suggests that a warming planet itself, even without human-added greenhouse gases, can help push the PDO into its drier-in-the-Southwest mode for many years. This paper, also published in Nature Geoscience last month, focuses on the mid-Holocene period, about 6,000 years ago.
At that point, Earthโs 23,000-year precession cycle (basically a wobble around Earthโs rotation axis) had lined up Northern Hemisphere summer with perihelion, the planetโs closest approach to the Sun. As a result, winters were generally colder and summers warmer than today. Also, the current Sahara Desert had been layered with vegetation for millennia; it would be hundreds of years more before it would start morphing into the arid landscape that โSaharaโ brings to mind.
Although the causes were different from today, the climate was relatively warm across the world, making this study period useful for shedding light on whatโs happening now, said the studyโs lead author, Victoria Todd of the University of Texas at Austin.
When a set of 23 paleoclimate simulations from 17 models replicated this period, they produced a long-lived negative-PDO-like pattern. This matches up with winter precipitation records for the Southwest, inferred from new leaf-wax isotope records from sites in New Mexico and Colorado that extend back 12,000 to 14,000 years.
โWe found that Northern Hemisphere warming in the past, and what we see in the future projections, really does keep the North Pacific in this persistent sea surface temperature pattern that resembles the negative phase of the PDO, and that this drives long-term drought in the Southwest U.S.โ Todd said.
Todd and co-authors end their paper with a stark warning that captures the mood of all three recent studies:
โmodels may be underestimating the severity of future winter precipitation changes and the future risk of drought in the Southwest United States.โ
Clara Deser, a senior scientist at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research and a longtime researcher on variability and change in the Earth system, is among the coauthors on the papers led by Klavans and Kuo. โI still think there is a role for both natural variability and anthropogenic [human-related] influences on PDO trends over the past 30 years or so,โ Deser said. โBut the new research (which comes from independent lines of evidence) is pointing to a relatively larger role for the latter compared to the former.โ
Dive deeper: What exactly does โdroughtโ mean?
The term โdroughtโ is often used in multiple and overlapping ways that can get confusing. When precipitation is below average for an extended period, thatโs meteorological drought. When such a dry period affects soils and crops, itโs agricultural drought, and when it hits water supplies, itโs hydrological drought. More recently, the term ecosystem drought has come into use, referring to more general landscape drying.
The U.S. Southwest has dealt with all of these unwelcome guests over most of the last quarter-century. A number of high-profile studies have classified the period since 2000 as a megadrought, which refers to an intense, multi-decade drought โ in this case, an especially stark one in its impacts on the environment and society.
An analysis led by Park Williams (University of California, Los Angeles) deemed the period from 2000 to 2021 as the worst megadrought in at least 1,200 years for a broad region from southern Idaho and Oregon to northwest Mexico.
What about the drought subtypes? Precipitation has fallen persistently short of average in this megadrought period, with 17 out of 25 water years from 1999-2000 to 2024-25 running drier than the 20th-century average. Looking purely at meteorological drought, this has been a prolonged, high-impact event, yet itโs not completely unprecedented. Across the Southwest climate region (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah), total water-year precipitation from 1999-2000 through 2024-25 averaged 13.53 inches, according to NOAA. These values were actually a touch lower during several periods in the mid-20th century, including 13.42 inches from 1942-43 through 1966-67.
Figure 4. Average water-year precipitation (October through September), 1895-96 through 2024-25, for the Southwest region (the Four Corners states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah). Annual amounts are in green; the running five-year average is in red. The lowest five-year averages occurred in the mid-1950s and the early 2000s. The linear precipitation trend (not shown) is about 0.04 inch per decade, or about 0.52 inch from 1895-96 through 2024-25. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)
Itโs all too clear what has pushed this dry period into truly historic territory: a warming climate. Distinctly hotter temperatures across the Southwest โ rising about 2.6 degrees Fahrenheit over the past 130 years, close to the rate of global-scale warming โ have drawn more and more moisture out of the landscape.
Figure 5. Average annual temperatures (October through September), 1895-96 through 2024-25, for the Southwest region (the Four Corners states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah). (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)
In their 2022 study noted above, Williams and colleagues based their worst-megadrought designation on soil moisture, reconstructed over the past 1,200 years using proxy data from tree rings, whose width corresponds closely to annual moisture.
We canโt know for sure how much rain or snow fell across these 1,200 years. But Williams and colleagues estimated that without human-caused climate change, โthe turn-of-the-twenty-first-century drought would not be on a megadrought trajectory in terms of severity or duration.โ Based on model output, they attributed 42% of the 22-year drought (as defined by soil-moisture loss) to climate change. One could imagine that percentage going higher if the most recent PDO-related research above were taken into account.
In July, regional precipitation was generally below normal, with record-dry conditions throughout much of the region, including western and southeastern Utah and the West Slope of Colorado. Regional temperatures were generally above normal, with much above normal temperatures throughout much of Utah and western Colorado. Regional streamflow was normal to much below normal, with much below normal conditions observed in many river basins throughout each state. As of August 1, Colorado reservoirs are 63% full, Utah reservoirs are 75% full, and Wyoming reservoirs are 72% full. Regional drought coverage in late July was 62%, with extreme drought expanding in western Colorado and developing in Utah. ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through early fall. The NOAA seasonal outlook for August-October suggests an increased probability of below average precipitation and above average temperatures in the region.
Regional July precipitation was below normal for the majority of Utah, western Colorado, and southern Wyoming. Large swaths of 5-25% of normal conditions occurred throughout Utah and western Colorado, and a large pocket of less than 2% of normal conditions occurred in Tooele, Juab, and Millard Counties in western Utah. Smaller pockets of less than 2% of normal precipitation occurred across Utah, including in Washington, Cache, San Juan, and Beaver Counties. Record-dry conditions occurred throughout much of western and southeastern Utah and the West Slope of Colorado, with small pockets scattered throughout Utah, Park and Teton Counties in Wyoming, Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Douglas Counties in the Denver metro, and more. Small pockets of above normal precipitation occurred in northern and southeastern Wyoming, eastern and southern Colorado, and Emery County in Utah. Pockets of 150-200% of normal conditions occurred in Washington County in Colorado and Laramie County in Wyoming, with large swaths across north-central and northeastern Wyoming. Large pockets of 200-400% of normal conditions occurred in several Wyoming counties, particularly in Sheridan, Big Horn, Washakie, and Natrona Counties. One pocket of 400-800% of normal precipitation occurred in Big Horn County in northern Wyoming.
Regional July temperatures were near to above average. In July, temperatures were two degrees above normal for much of the region, except for southern and eastern Colorado and southwestern Utah where temperartures were two degrees below average. In northern Colorado, northern Utah, and western Wyoming, July temperatures were two to four degrees above average. Pockets of four to six degrees above average temperatures were observed in Park County, Wyoming, and between Uintah and Carbon Counties in Utah. July temperatures were in the top 10% of historical observations ย throughout much of Utah and Colorado, particularly in northern and eastern Utah and western Colorado, the Front Range and the southwestern half of Wyoming.
July streamflow was below normal throughout the region except for eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming where average July streamflow conditions were observed. Below to much below normal streamflow conditions were observed throughout ย the region, particularly in western Colorado, western Wyoming, and most of Utah. Several USGS stream gauges reported July streamflow conditions in the lowest 3% of all historical observations, including four in Colorado, two in Wyoming, and one in Utah.
As of August 1, Colorado reservoirs are 63% full and at 83% of median capacity, Utah reservoirs are 75% full and at 100% of median capacity, and Wyoming reservoirs are 72% full and at 87% of median capacity. There are many reservoirs with 80% or more of capacity, including Carter Lake, Horsetooth, Lake Granby, and Morrow Point in Colorado, East Canyon, Flaming Gorge, Jordanelle, Scofield, Strawberry, and Utah Lake in Utah, and Alcova, Belle Fourche, Buffalo Bill, Fontenelle, and Jackson Lake in Wyoming. Reservoirs with less than 60% capacity include McPhee, Navajo, and Pueblo in Colorado, Lake Powell and Willard Bay in Utah, and Angostura, Glendo, Keyhole, Pathfinder, and Seminoe in Wyoming.
On July 29, moderate (D1) drought conditions covered 62% of the region, nearly unchanged since July 1. Severe (D2) drought expanded by 8% in Colorado, 16% in Utah, and 19% in Wyoming. Extreme (D3) drought expanded by 4% on the West Slope of Colorado, developed in Utah to 2% coverage, and remains at 0% in Wyoming.
ENSO-neutral conditions continued in July, and ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through the rest of the summer with chances exceeding 50% through early fall. The NOAA monthly outlook for August suggests an increased probability of below average precipitation in Colorado, Utah, and southern Wyoming, and above average temperatures throughout the region, particularly in southern Utah and southwestern Colorado. The NOAA seasonal outlook for August-October suggests an increased probability of below average precipitation throughout the region, particularly in eastern Wyoming and northern Colorado, and above average temperatures throughout the region, particularly in Utah, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming.
Significant weather event: Large wildfire in Utah. The Monroe Canyon Fire began on July 13, 2025, near Richfield in Sevier County, Utah, and is currently the largest active wildfire in Utah. As of August 6, it has burned approximately 64,957 acres and is 15% contained. The cause remains undetermined. However, Utah Governor Spencer Cox said 72% of this year’s Utah wildfires were human-caused. During a press briefing on August 1, Governor Cox said, โI havenโt begged in a long time. Iโm begging people right now to please exercise extreme caution.โ Governor Cox declared a 30-day state of emergency to mobilize resources and protect lives, property, livestock, drinking water supplies, and critical infrastructure. On August 3, fire crews were able to gain some control amid lower temperatures and milder winds and have since made progress in containment efforts along Highway 24 and in areas like Elk Country, Bagley Ranch, and Manning Meadows. Some evacuation orders have been lifted, but officials continue to urge caution due to the ongoing fire danger. The fire is under red flag conditions that are predicted to remain at least until the end of the week, with high temperatures, low humidity, strong winds, and critically dry fuels contributing to these conditions. These challenges follow record-low snowpack in the mountains near the fire. Additionally, several thunderstorms are expected to pass through the area later in the week, but unfortunately, they will not bring moisture with them.
The Bureau of Reclamation recently released its August 24-month study of the Colorado River, its projected water supplies, and the effect on reservoir levels and water cutbacks. Itโs a doozy that, according to the Bureau, reaffirms the โimpacts of unprecedented drought,โ and necessitates continued water-use reductions for Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico.
Thing is, it may actually be even worse than the feds predict.
Hereโs the chart for Lake Powell, showing reservoir levels for July, and projected levels for the maximum, minimum, and most probable inflow scenarios. Check it out:
Projected Lake Powell end-of-month physical elevations from the latest 24-Month Study inflow scenarios.
A couple of details struck me right off the bat. The first is that in order for the maximum scenario to come to fruition, there would have to be a big surge of flow in the Colorado River upstream from Lake Powell in October, November, and December (see how the blue line departs from the others in October?), followed by a massively snowy winter. Itโs possible, but seems pretty unlikely, given that inflows and water levels almost always drop in the fall and winter.
The second is that even in the minimum flow scenario, they are predicting that next yearโs spring runoff will increase lake levels by about eight feet, whereas this year the runoff only boosted the level by four feet. So even the worst case scenario is better than the most recent reality. For the most probable scenario to work out, meanwhile, this coming winter would have to be far snowier than this past one โ possible, but I wouldnโt bank on it.
Now, I donโt really know what Iโm talking about here. But John Fleck, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, et al, most certainly do. And they wrote a piece warning that the Bureau of Reclamationโs forecasts historically tend toward the optimistic. โWhatever you see in Reclamationโs report of the โMost Probableโ reservoir levels for the next two years,โ they write on Fleckโs Inkstain blog, โwe must prepare for things to be much worse.โ
They remind readers that last year, Reclamation predicted Lake Powell would most probably be up to 3,593 feet above sea level by the end of this July. In fact, it was at 3,555 feet (and has dropped another four feet since then). So, yeah, Rec was way the heck off, and it certainly wasnโt the first time. Fleck and company say this is because the study does not โfully capture the climate-change driven aridification of the Colorado River Basin.โ
This all matters because Reclamation bases water deliveries and cuts on these studies. And if they have an โoptimistic bias,โ then it could affect planning, and may lead to Lake Powellโs levels dropping far faster than predicted, which could in turn lead to another โChallenge at Glen Canyonโ a la 1983, albeit due to too little water rather than too much.
It has once again prompted the Utah Rivers Council, Glen Canyon Institute, and Save the Colorado to call for the feds to overhaul the river outlet tubes and provide a bypass outlet for Glen Canyon Dam that will allow water to be released safely when levels drop below the minimum power pool.
The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson
Thunderheads at sunset over the Four Corners Country. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
It always began with a hot summerโs day in late July or early August. The sun beating down from a cloudless noontime sky, the high growl of lawnmowers harmonizing in the distance, the pungent smell of freshly cut grass. Stillness. Maybe a bit of loneliness, too, as the other neighborhood kids are off at their other parentโs house, or at summer camp, or whatever. Maybe my brother will take me fishing with him. Put the worm on the hook, toss it into the murky pool upstream from the bridge, grow impatient and decide to catch the little bullheads instead. Mottled sculpin, actually. The riverโs low this time of year, low enough to drag an old log in and ride it downstream for a bit till it bucks us off and we scramble to stand up on the slippery rocks in the current, and thatโs when we notice the sun is not so bright and look up to see towering thunderheads all billowy above Smelter Mountain and the breeze kicks up prickly sand and throws it at us and suddenly itโs not hot anymore and itโs time to get home before the rain and the lightning, even though our jeans and shirts and TG&Y sneakers are soaking wet already.
We jog through the park and up the hill and another block to the house and I stay out in the yard to await the storm. The wind bends the big maple and elm and ash trees, threatens to tear another branch off the old apricot, rushes through my hair. The sky, now, is dark grey, almost cobalt blue. A flash of lightning โฆ one-one-thousand, two-one-thousand, three โ- boom! Itโs getting close. And then the first drop of rain hits my outstretched hand, big and cold, and I run onto the porch to revel in the petrichor and the tempest to come.
Butte and monsoon sky, Southeastern Utah. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
It is the monsoon season in the Southwest, which, once upon a time, meant that a violent thunderstorm would arrive every afternoon, bringing huge amounts of precipitation in a short period of time, perhaps in the form of hail or sleet, leading to gully busters and flash floods and overflowing gutters and a spike in the riverโs flow. Then the clouds would move on, the sun would return for the last hour or two of the day, and steam would rise from the pavement, giving the arid town a glimpse of sultriness.
It has always been my favorite time of year, especially in Durango and the Animas Valley. Thereโs just something about the combination of colors: The slate-blue sky against the desert-varnish-striped Entrada sandstone against the deep red Cutler and Chinle formation against the emerald green of irrigated hayfields. And the weird patterns the storms follow as they move through the valley. Downtown can be deluged, while just north or south of town stays bone dry.
Horses, sky, Ute Mountain. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
But then, each part of the West is special during the monsoon: The mountains are downright frightening, especially when youโre rushing to summit a peak before the storm and you look over to see your companionโs hair standing on end. Canyon Country can be a blast, so long as youโre in an elevated area where you can watch the water spill off sandstone cliffs and race through sandy arroyos and you donโt have to drive back across that arroyo to get to work or something. And down in Tucson and Phoenix it often provides extra excitement in the form of dust clouds, then crazy lightning and thunder displays, followed by torrents that provide a bit of relief from the searing heat.
This year, however, the monsoon has so far failed to arrive. In fact, over the last decade or so, it seems to have been far less reliable generally than it was in my youth. Memory, however, is fallible, especially when it comes to recalling weather patterns from the distant and even not so distant past. So I checked the records, and they verify that Iโm not totally fabricating things here.
Durangoโs online records only go back to 2000, so they donโt do me much good. Instead, I relied on Mesa Verde National Park, which has records back to the 1920s (but tends to be drier than Durango). Based on a random sampling from each decade, it would appear that the monsoon nearly always delivers in parts of July and August, with normal monthly precipitation totals of 1.4โ and 2.05โ respectively. However, my memory of nearly daily storms was off: Even way back when I was a kid, it only rained every three days or so, sometimes less often. Meanwhile, the more recent past hasnโt been quite as bad as I thought. The July-August precipitation totals were below normal for six of the last ten years, and above normal during the other four. Not great, but not catastrophic.
Still, August is more than halfway over and the two month total so far is only .27โ of precipitation, all of which fell in July.
Dark sky, road, ball. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
***
The result, naturally, is lower-than-normal streamflows (which were already down due to the lack of snow last winter and above-normal temperatures). This isnโt only bad for us terrestrial water users, but also harms fish and other aquatic life, especially when accompanied by high water temperatures. The Yampa River in northwestern Colorado, for example, is running at just 56 cubic feet per second at the USGSโs Deerlodge Park gauge, which is not good. But more concerning is that the water temperature has been shooting up to 81ยฐ F during the day. Trout start to struggle at around 70ยฐ.
๐ซฃ Correction ๐
Remember the Monkeywrenching essay I wrote last week? I have been informed by a very reliable source, eyewitness, and possible accomplice โ who will remain anonymous, of course โ that I was wrong about my father and companions burning a single billboard near Silverton. Hereโs how it really unfolded:
The Colorado River flows near Parker, Arizona on August 5, 2025. The Colorado River Indian Tribes want to give the river the same legal rights as a person, taking millennia of cultural values and putting them into law. Alex Hager/KUNC
Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Alex Hager):
August 20, 2025
This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.
In far western Arizona, the dusty beige expanse of desert stretches as far as the eye can see. Under the baking summer sun, which regularly pushes temperatures above 110 degrees in the summer, even scrubby desert bushes can struggle to survive.
But in the middle of that desert, the Colorado River creates a striking strip of green.
The river winds through the valleys and deserts of the Southwest, carrying Rocky Mountain snowmelt hundreds of miles away, giving life to places like Parker, Arizona. Itโs home to the Colorado River Indian Tribes โ one of 30 federally recognized tribes in the Colorado River Basin, but one of the few whose land includes a stretch of the river itself.
โIt’s our lifeblood,โ said Dillon Esquerra, a member of the tribe who serves as its water resources director. โIt’s who we are. It’s part of our identity.โ
People in this community have deep cultural ties to the river that go back millennia. Many of those people, Esquerra said, have a close personal relationship with its life-giving water.
โWe look at it as something that nurtures us,โ he said, โSo we have to protect it.โ
Dillon Esquerra, water resources director for the Colorado River Indian Tribes, poses in the ‘Ahakhav Tribal Preserve near Parker, Arizona on August 6, 2025. โ[The Colorado River] is our lifeblood,โ he said. โIt’s who we are. It’s part of our identity.โ Alex Hager /KUNC
Now, the Colorado River Indian Tribes, often referred to as CRIT, is trying to take those long-held cultural ideas and put them into law. They are planning to establish legal personhood status for the Colorado River, giving it some of the same rights and protections a human could hold in court. No government, tribal or otherwise, has given these kinds of rights to the Colorado River before.
The effort comes at a critical juncture in the riverโs future. Climate change means thereโs less water in the river each year, and steady demand from cities and farms is stretching that supply thin. The regionโs indigenous people have largely been shut outfrom decisions about its management, despite a long history of using โ and living alongside โ the river long before it was divided and allocated according to the laws of white settlers.
CRIT, in essence, is trying to work within those laws to get some representation for a river that it sees as a living, beleaguered individual.
People along the river
The people of CRIT are river people. Itโs in their name. The traditional name of the Mohave, Hamakhav, means โpeople along the river.โ
CRIT itself is a relatively modern construct, a reservation established by the U.S. government that puts four different ethnic groups under the umbrella of one tribal government. The tribeโs current reservation lands were originally occupied by the Mohave people, then the Chemehuevi. In the 1940s and 1950s, Hopi and Navajo people were relocated to the reservation from further north.
What many of those people share, especially those who grew up on CRITโs riverside reservation, is a deep reverence for the Colorado River.
The Colorado River flows into Parker, Arizona on August 5, 2025. The river holds deep cultural importance to the people of the Colorado River Indian Tribes. “We’re supposed to be the stewards of these gifts from our creator,” said Anisa Patch, a tribal council member. Alex Hager/KUNC
In our culture, the river is precious,โ said Anisa Patch, a member of the CRIT tribal council who is among those pushing for legal personhood status. โWe’re supposed to be the stewards of these gifts from our creator. That’s what was taught to us by my grandmother, our aunts, our other relatives. It’s in the stories.โ
Patch explained that personhood is a way to take those deeply-held cultural and spiritual values and put them into a lasting, enforceable code โ one that will stay in writing across generations and changes in political leadership.
โWe want to have a stake in the ground to stand firm on,โ she said. โTo say that you have to recognize this is something not just personal to us, but something of cultural significance, something of significance to life itself for a lot of people.โ
A river at a crossroads
CRITโs decision to declare personhood status for the Colorado River is a timely one.
The river is used by nearly 40 million people and a massive agriculture industry across seven states. That includes major cities like Denver and Los Angeles, as well as farms that send produce to grocery shelves across the nation. It has been cut and divided and redirected in ways that exemplify humanityโs attempts to defy the design of nature. The Colorado River is stored in reservoirs that represent historic feats of engineering. Its water is pumped hundreds of miles through tunnels and canals that carve through deserts and mountains.
With the river portioned out by a complicated web of physical and legal infrastructure, CRITโs leadership worries that there isnโt much water left for the river itself, nor the plants and animals that rely on it.
โWe’ve taken, we’ve taken, we’ve taken, we’ve taken from this river,โ said Amelia Flores, CRITโs chairwoman. โWe’re not giving back. We’re not being reciprocal and giving back.โ
The sun rises over a boat dock on the Colorado River near Parker, Arizona on August 6, 2025. Boaters visiting the Colorado River Indian Tribe’s land and riverside casino resort provide an economic benefit to the community. Alex Hager/KUNC
Right now, the Colorado River is at a crossroads. Policymakers are negotiating a new plan to share its water after the current rules expire in 2026, and they are facing calls to implement painful, permanent cuts to some areasโ water supplies.
A Supreme Court decree, Arizona v. California, recognized CRIT as having the most senior water rights on the lower Colorado River, and among the most senior in the entire basin. That means CRIT has some of the most legally untouchable water rights along the lower half of the Colorado River, making the tribe the last to face cutbacks in times of shortage.
Longstanding legal precedent means the fast-growing Phoenix area would likely be the first to face cutbacks. As that possibility settles in, cities and municipalities in the nationโs 10th-largest metro area are knocking on CRITโs door, looking to lease some of the tribeโs water. The tribeโs land is about 130 miles west of Phoenix, straddling the Arizona-California border.
Tribal leaders said the new legal protections would serve two purposes: a symbolic one and a practical one. The first is about sending a message.
As those Phoenix-area cities come to do business with CRIT, those legal protections would force outside governments and water agencies to sign deals acknowledging the nuanced importance of the river.
โIt’s not just going to be an economic transaction,โ said John Bezdek, a water attorney employed by the tribe. โIt’s going to be one that talks about the river, the needs of the community and how those are intertwined.โ
Colorado River water flows through La Paz County, Arizona on August 6, 2025. The Central Arizona Project canal carries water from near the Colorado River Indian Tribes reservation to Phoenix and Tucson. Cities in the Phoenix area may look to the tribe in search of more water amid the threat of mandatory cutbacks to their existing Colorado River supplies. Alex Hager/KUNC
The second purpose, Bezdek said, is more practical.
Tribal council members are considering setting up a fund for the river, and anybody leasing water from the tribe would have to pay into it in order to do business. That money could be used for habitat restoration along the river, like improving wetlands, setting up ponds for migrating birds or expanding a nature preserve on the reservation. It could also boost tribal membersโ access to the river by funding new parks or designated swimming areas.
The money could also be used to teach tribal youth about the importance of the Colorado River.
โWe want to keep that essence alive as much as we can,โ Flores said. โAnd if the essence is in this Western way of thinking, then so be it, because the next generation coming up may not have that cultural tie, that religious tie to the river.โ
Beyond the Colorado River
While legal personhood for the Colorado River would be new, the idea of giving rights to an element of nature has been around for a while.
CRITโs effort is part of the โrights of natureโ movement, which has seen tribal and non-tribal governments around the world try to establish protections for the waters, lands and plants that are important to them.
Flores said the idea for Colorado River personhood came from a series of trips to New Zealand, where she canoed the Whanganui River with the indigenous Mฤori people. They achieved legal personhood for the river in 2017 after one of New Zealandโs longest-running court cases.
Cases like the Whanganui, and a handful of similar legal efforts in the United States, can provide some insights on what might happen with this historic rights of nature declaration on the Colorado River.
Amelia Flores, chairwoman of the Colorado River Indian Tribes, poses near the tribe’s government offices on August 6, 2025. Tribal leaders view legal personhood as a way to put their cultural values and reciprocal relationship with the river into law. Alex Hager/KUNC
Erin OโDonnell, a senior lecturer at the University of Melbourne in Australia, researches water law with a focus on the global rights of nature movement. OโDonnell said those rights can be a โpowerful transformative process to shift human relationships with rivers,โ but also a โsword that can cut both waysโ by inciting legal backlash, especially in the U.S.
OโDonnell cited a 2019 case in which the city of Toledo, Ohio, established a โbill of rightsโ for Lake Erie, and was promptly sued by a farming corporation. Not long after, the bill of rights was struck down in court for being โunconstitutionally vague.โ
โWe have seen significant backlash in the United States,โ OโDonnell said. โA real rejection of the idea that nature should have rights, and a kind of fear-based reaction that says, โI’m going to sue to dismantle these rights and make them invalid before they can be weaponized against me.โโ
OโDonnell said that tribal rights of nature declarations are often perceived differently, though, because they are focused on humansโ relationship with nature, not just legal rights. In cases like CRITโs, she said, granting legal personhood to a river can start to change the way that people outside the river think about its water and health.
โThe most successful examples of rights of nature around the world have been the ones that are indigenous led,โ OโDonnell said. โThey tend to be the ones that get less backlash. Not necessarily no backlash, but certainly a lot less.โ
New Zealandโs Whanganui River, which directly inspired CRITโs legal push, OโDonnell said, is โan outstanding example of almost no backlash.โ
Cars exit the Colorado River Indian Tribes reservation on August 5, 2025. Tribal leaders said they would use legal personhood rights to fund habitat improvements along the river and education programs for the community’s youth. Alex Hager/KUNC
The biggest questions about how CRITโs declaration will play out have to do with how the riverโs new rights will be deployed in court.
The Colorado River will only have legal personhood under CRIT tribal law, which only applies to the water that it has the legal right to use and lease.
So, if a faraway water user, outside of tribal land, does something to the river that impacts the stretch running through CRITโs land, can they be sued? OโDonnell said that it depends a lot on how the new law is written.
Bezdek said CRIT does not plan to use legal personhood status to go after a person or entity that is harming the river outside of tribal lands, which would fall outside of tribal law.
But, OโDonnell said, creating legal personhood for the Colorado River could leave the door open to lawsuits. Another case in the U.S. gives us clues about how that might play out.
In 2018, the White Earth Band of Ojibwe in Minnesota recognized the rights of manoomin, or wild rice. Courts have mostly interpreted those protections narrowly and havenโt held faraway entities liable for harm to the water rice needs to grow. That example, OโDonnell said, shows it would be difficult for similar cases on the Colorado River to succeed.
New tools for an uncertain future
How CRITโs plans will shape the broader debate over the future of the Colorado River remains to be seen. Tribes have largely been excluded from negotiations about sharing its water. Many of them have directly called for greater inclusion in todayโs talks. For the most part, tribes still do not have a formal role in the state and federal discussions that will shape the riverโs next chapter.
A personhood declaration may not directly change that, but one tribal law expert says itโs worth trying anyway.
โWe have to recognize that what has happened to date hasn’t really worked, but the river is still in decline,โ said Heather Tanana, a member of the Navajo Nation and a law professor at the University of Denver. โWe’re still over-allocating and over-using, so turning to new ideas, new tools, definitely should be explored, and rights of nature is one of those.โ
Tanana said rights of nature can change the way people think about the natural world at a time when the Colorado River faces complicated, unprecedented challenges.
d Dillon Esquerra, water resources director for the Colorado River Indian Tribes, watches water flow into an irrigation canal near Parker, Arizona on August 6, 2025. “โAs far I’m concerned,โ he said, โWe’ve always looked at the river as a person.โ Alex Hager/KUNC
Only one tribe in the U.S. has succeeded in giving rights of nature to a river. The Yurok tribe secured legal personhood for the Klamath River, which runs through Oregon and California. Amy Bowers Cordalis, a Yurok member and lawyer for the tribe, said it was a โ100% good ideaโ for CRIT to pursue legal personhood.
โTribal rights of nature is a really important step in bringing social, economic and environmental justice to tribes,โ Cordalis said. โBecause it is a declaration of the tribeโs relationships with the natural environment. Itโs a critical step into bringing those values and rights into modern U.S. law.โ
Cordalis said the Yurok Tribeโs personhood declaration has had impacts outside of the courtroom. Putting tribal wisdom and ecosystem health at the forefront of decision making gave people โtremendous hope.โ
โHowever, CRIT decides to approach this,โ Cordalis said. โIf itโs consistent with their values, their sovereignty, the future they want to create, then it is a positive step in the right direction.โ
While rights of nature may be a modern legal tool, the values they represent go back generations.
Dillon Esquerra, CRITโs water resources director, stood amid the tall reeds and grasses of the ‘Ahakhav Tribal Preserve, a backwater of the Colorado River, where native plants and animals thrive across more than 1,200 acres of protected habitat. In the background, birds chirped and cooed. Under the waterโs surface, fish flitted in and out of clustered aquatic plants.
โAs far as I’m concerned we’ve always looked at the river as a person. It’s an entity,” said Esquerra. “It’s what we rely on to survive, you know. It is a person to us. It’s a living, breathing person.โ
โItโs a really scary time to be living in the basin and trying to help with water management at a time where thereโs so much fear and stress,โ she said.
Directing the Colorado River Program, Hawkins will lead teams working within seven U.S. states, 30 tribal nations and Mexico. Programs range from on-the-ground conservation projects to basinwide policy issues and interstate negotiations.
Colorado water officials announced Wednesday a rough plan to figure out how the state would handle an unwelcome specter in the Colorado River Basin: forced water cuts.
Mandatory water cuts are possible under a 103-year-old Colorado River Compact in certain circumstances, mainly if the riverโs 10-year flow falls too low. Itโs a possibility that is one or two โbad yearsโ away, some experts say.
Colorado, however, does not have a clearly defined plan, or regulations, for how exactly it would handle such forced water cuts. Itโs time to start preparing, according to state engineer Jason Ullmann, Coloradoโs top water cop.
Over the years, Coloradans on both sides of the Continental Divide have asked about these โcompact administration regulations,โ Ullmann told state lawmakers during the Water Resources and Agriculture Review Committee hearing Wednesday in Steamboat Springs.
โWeโve heard those questions,โ Ullmann, director of the Division of Water Resources, said as hundreds of water professionals listened at the Colorado Water Congress Summer Meeting.
If the riverโs flow falls below a 10-year rolling average of about 82.5 million acre-feet, the Lower Basin states โ Arizona, California and Nevada โ could demand that the Upper Basin send more water downstream based on the 1922 Colorado River Compact. In the water world, this is often called a โcompact call.โ
The Upper Basin states โ Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming โ argue that the trigger is actually 75 million acre-feet because of a difference in legal opinions about how the basin states should meet their obligations to share Colorado River water with Mexico.
That 10-year average flow was forecast to be about 82.8 million acre-feet by September 2026. If the flow falls below the tripwire, it would cause a legal mire that could take years to sort out.
State officials said Colorado is in compliance and expects to remain so in the future. If a compact call ever happened, it would be a historic first for the Colorado River Basin.
Colorado officials would need to be able to send more water downstream. But the state doesnโt have regulations to say who cuts back, where the water comes from, when cuts happen or how it would track the water to make sure it would end up where it needed to go.
State officials have debated whether they should even have these discussions in light of larger basin negotiations over water use. Some people wanted to focus the stateโs resources on the negotiations. Others feared that finding water supplies that could be cut would weaken the stateโs stance that it has no extra water to spare.
Based on Ullmannโs remarks, the state is shifting its next course of action: many, many feedback meetings with communities.
This is pretty big news, said state Sen. Dylan Roberts, a Frisco Democrat, asking for more details about the timeline.
This winter and spring, state officials will reach out to key water user groups to host small listening sessions to hear their thoughts on the need for compact administration regulations, Ullmann said.
After that, the state will hold broader public meetings to get more input.
โItโs not something that we intend on doing in a vacuum,โ Ullmann said. โItโs important for everybody in the state of Colorado that this would be a very transparent question.โ
The state has already started on another key task when it comes to managing mandatory water cuts: improving how the Western Slope measures its water diversions.
โYou canโt manage what you canโt measure,โ Ullmann said.
Western Slope water users do already measure their use, but the measurements are not as advanced or consistent as in other river basins where Coloradans already curtail their use to meet interstate water sharing obligations, he said.
The state has already made progress on improving measurement rules and requirements in northwestern Colorado, southwestern Colorado and the Gunnison River area. Water diversions along the Colorado River in western Colorado are next up, a process that will wrap up in November.
Colorado could also adapt to the prospect of forced cuts by creating a โconservation pool,โ like a savings account that could be tapped in the event of a compact call, according to other water experts who spoke to lawmakers.
Some pinned their hopes on the stateโs Colorado River negotiators who have been charged with reaching a seven-state agreement for how to manage the basinโs major reservoirs after the current operating rules expire in 2026.
โWeโre not going to have a compromise unless they [the Lower Basin] waive compact compliance threats. We just canโt enter into any agreement with that,โ said Andy Mueller, general manager of the Colorado River District.
Those negotiations have been stalled over fundamental issues like how to cut back on water in the basinโs driest water years.
Coloradoโs Colorado River Commissioner, Becky Mitchell, told lawmakers Wednesday that the discussions continue to be challenging. Negotiators have until November to share more information about a seven-state agreement with the federal government.
โWhether or not we reach a seven-state consensus, all of us will be forced to deal with this reality in one way or another,โ Mitchell said. โBut today, what weโre hearing from our counterparts is they may be unwilling to reduce their uses in some dry years. It appears they believe that this gap should somehow be filled by the Upper Basin water, using any means necessary.โ
Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Politics website (Eugene Buchanan). Here’s an excerpt:
Tribal leaders are pushing for a seat at the negotiating table, where allocation and management of the Colorado River will be determined.ย The representatives from tribal nations joined a panel discussion called โColorado River: The Emerging Role of Tribes in the 2026 Negotiations,โ moderated by the Nature Conservancyโs Western Colorado Water Project Director Celene Hawkins, at the Colorado Water Congress in Steamboat Springs. During the panel, water executives from several of the 30 tribes relying on the Colorado River Basinโs water talked about their challenges and successes in managing the precious resource. While Native American Tribes hold significant water rights in the Colorado River Basin, their role in the systemโs management is limited. Key hurdles, they said, include funding to implement water programs, infrastructure improvements, and water accountability…
โIn the past, tribes have been treated as an afterthought when it comes to water issues and negotiations,โ said Lisa Yellow Eagle. โBut now weโre having open, honest dialogue.โ
Native America in the Colorado River Basin. Credit: USBR
The Colorado River Water Conservation District spans 15 Western Slope counties. Voters across the district are considering a mill-levy increase that would raise the River Districtโs budget by $5 million, funding a variety of water-related projects.
Colorado River District/Courtesy image
The Colorado River District Board of Directors unanimously approved and adopted a new five-year strategic plan at its quarterly meeting on July 15โ16, 2025. The new Strategic Plan outlines a clear vision and action-oriented roadmap for advancing the Districtโs mission to lead in the protection, conservation, use, and development of the water resources of the Colorado River Basin for the benefit of West Slope water users.
The newly adopted plan is the product of a year-long collaborative effort between the Board, staff, and strategic consultants. Through surveys, interviews, retreats, and intensive staff workgroup sessions, the plan identifies focused priorities and initiatives aligned with the evolving water challenges facing the West Slope.
โThis plan is the result of close collaboration between our Board, staff, and consulting team, and it charts a strong course for the next five years,โ said Marc Catlin, Board President of the Colorado River District. โIt positions the River District to act as a leader, respond quickly to change, and deliver real, lasting benefits to West Slope communities.โ
The new Strategic Plan is built around three key focus areas: Community Protection, Trusted Resource, and Recognized Leader on Colorado River Matters. It outlines goals and actionable steps to address the water needs of western Colorado in a hotter, drier future, protect water resources for agriculture and local communities that rely on them, and reinforce the River Districtโs role as a trusted, data-informed voice in water policy across the district and the basin. The plan also includes efforts to support core organizational services and retain staff, ensuring that essential day-to-day work continues alongside new strategic priorities.
โThe Strategic Plan is a collaborative, working strategy that affirms our commitment to our constituents and communities,โ said Amy Moyer, the Districtโs Chief of Strategy. โImplementation is already underway, and weโre building internal structures to ensure that the initiatives are aligned with the realities of Coloradoโs water future.โ
To support implementation, the River District plans to develop internal workgroups for each focus area and track progress through regular updates to the Board each July, with quarterly updates embedded into staff reports throughout the year. The River District extends its gratitude to the Board and all who contributed to the planning process. The complete 2025-2030 Strategic Plan is available at ColoradoRiverDistrict.org.
Between Aug. 13โ19, 2025, dry and drought conditions were widespread, driven by hotter-than-average temperatures and below normal precipitation across much of the country. Temperatures across the country were mostly 1 to 5 degrees above normal, while isolated areas of North Dakota, Minnesota and California saw below-normal temperatures. Areas in the central High Plains and Midwest, Arkansas, along the Ohio River, central Pennsylvania and New York saw temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Precipitation was mostly near to slightly below normal for much of the country. Along the Pacific Northwest coastline, rainfall was 1 to 3 inches above normal. The Southeast also saw areas of 1 to 3 inches above normal precipitation where thunderstorms dropped heavy precipitation. A series of storms brought above normal rainfall from South Dakota to Lake Michigan, with areas of eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northeastern Illinois recording 2 to 5 inches. Storms that brought decent moisture saw improvements across the northern Intermountain West, central High Plains and the western Great Lakes region. In the West, severe to exceptional drought (D2โD4) remained widespread across California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico, while hot, dry weather pushed drought to expand in Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. These conditions also fueled large wildfires, particularly in California and the Southwest, where dry vegetation and gusty winds created dangerous fire behavior. The High Plains also saw abnormal dryness and drought intensify across Nebraska, Kansas, and the Dakotas as above-normal temperatures and limited rainfall added stress to crops and rangeland. A few localized showers, however, offered minor improvements. In the South, scattered storms brought limited relief to parts of Texas and south-central Tennessee. Along the Tennessee and mid-Mississippi River valleys, flash drought conditions led to widespread intensification and expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D1)โparticularly in southern Missouri, western Kentucky and Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi and Arkansas. Areas of the Midwest that received heavy rains saw steady or improved conditions in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa, while continued dryness led to worsening drought in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The Southeast saw mostly stable conditions, though moderate drought and abnormally dry areas persisted in Alabama, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Meanwhile, the Northeast continued to dry up, with the expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought (D2) across New England…
The High Plains saw a mixed pattern of drought changes between Aug. 13โ19. North Dakota improved the most, as widespread storms erased nearly all dryness, leaving only a small pocket in the northeast. South Dakota had patchy outcomes, with rainfall trimming drought in some central and southern counties while western areas remained dry. Nebraska also showed contrasts with severe dryness expanding in the Sandhills, especially in Cherry and nearby counties, while parts of the east improved after storms. Kansas slipped slightly drier, with abnormal dryness spreading into the southwest. Conditions were most concerning in Colorado and Wyoming, where persistent heat and limited rainfall drove drought deeper. In Colorado, drought expanded along the Front Range and southwest into northern New Mexico, while Wyoming saw new extreme drought in the northwest and broader expansion of abnormally dry conditions across central counties. These worsening conditions have fueled wildfire activity, most notably Coloradoโs Lee Fire, which has already burned more than 137,000 acres, ranking among the stateโs largest, while Wyoming has faced smaller but fast-moving rangeland fires…
Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending August 19, 2025.
Hot, dry weather dominated much of the West, fueling widespread drought expansion. Arizona and New Mexico saw severe to extreme drought spread north and east as monsoon rains largely missed these areas. In Utah, drought expanded in the south and along the borders of Colorado and Wyoming. Idaho worsened, with severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought spreading in the southeast and north. Montana was mixed: heavy rains in the northeast allowed drought to ease, but hot, dry weather in the southwest caused drought to intensify. Oregon and Washington saw smaller changes, with some localized improvement in southeast Oregon but worsening conditions in northern Oregon and southern Washington. California remained locked in extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought in the southern regions with no major change. The dry conditions have fed several large wildfires: Arizonaโs Dragon Bravo Fire has burned over 145,000 acres and Californiaโs Gifford Fire about 130,000 acres. A record-breaking heat wave, with temperatures above 110ยฐF in desert areas and red-flag warnings across California, has heightened fire danger…
The South saw widespread drought expansion over the week, despite scattered thunderstorms that brought brief, localized relief. Texas saw some improvements due to heavy rains and flooding in south-central counties earlier in the month that continued to ease drought there. Temperatures across the region stayed hot and humid, with heat index values topping 100ยฐF in Texas and Oklahoma. Fire danger also crept higher in Oklahoma and Texas, where persistent heat and dry rangelands created favorable conditions for grassfires. Abnormal dryness (D0) formed in the Panhandle and north-central Texas. There was widespread expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate drought across much of Oklahoma under hot, windy conditions. Arkansas is experiencing a flash drought with conditions deteriorating quickly, with nearly the entire state now abnormally dry (D0) or worse and pockets of severe drought (D2) developing in the northeast and central counties, along with the expansion of moderate drought (D1). Louisiana also saw abnormal dryness (D0) expand in the northwest and in the southeast and into Mississippi. Mississippi saw moderate drought (D1) expand in both the south and northwest, while Tennessee recorded broad expansion of drought in the west, despite some trimming in the south-central counties. Overall, the South ended the week with worsening drought almost everywhere, reinforcing the strain of prolonged heat and limited rainfall…
Looking Ahead
From Aug. 21 to 26, the heaviest precipitation is forecast along the East Coast, especially from North Carolina through the Mid-Atlantic and into southern New England, where amounts may exceed 5 inches, likely tied to a coastal storm system. Pockets of heavier rain are also expected in parts of the central Rockies, High Plains and southern Texas, with localized totals between 2 and 4 inches. Much of the Midwest, Southeast and Southwest are forecast to receive lighter but widespread rainfall, generally between 0.5 and 2 inches. By contrast, the Pacific Northwest and much of California show little to no precipitation expected. Overall, the forecast highlights a wet period for the East Coast and scattered parts of the interior U.S., while the West Coast remains mostly dry.
The Climate Prediction Centerโs 6-10 day outlook (valid Aug. 26-30) shows much of the central and eastern U.S. is expected to be cooler than normal, with the greatest chance for well-below-average temperatures across the Midwest and Ohio Valley. In contrast, warmer-than-normal conditions are favored along the West Coast, especially in the Pacific Northwest and northern California, as well as in Florida, parts of Alaska and Hawaii. Rainfall patterns show a split across the country: wetter-than-normal conditions are likely in the central and southern Rockies, the Southwest and the central Plains, along with parts of Alaska. Drier-than-normal conditions are forecast for the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and portions of the interior Northeast. The Southeast, Gulf Coast and parts of the interior West are generally expected to see near-normal precipitation. Overall, the late-August outlook points to a cool and damp stretch for much of the central U.S., warmer weather along the West Coast and in the far South, and a drier setup in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
US Drought Monitor one week change map ending August 19, 2025.
There was a very interesting session on Day 2, “Tools and Techniques in Agricultural Water Conservation“. During the session Eaโmon OโToole (Ladder Ranch) made this point: There needs to be a streamlined process for storage less than 15,000 AF. Let’s construct storage high in the mountains so the conserved water doesn’t evaporate from Lake Mead. He also mentioned that there is no way to shepherd conserved water downstream.
In defense of the irrigation methods on his ranch he added: I create habitat with flood irrigation. For me the ducks, etc. are just as important as my crop.
Oak Flat, Arizona features groves of Emory oak trees, canyons, and springs. This is sacred land for the San Carlos Apache tribe. Resolution Copper (Rio Tinto subsidiary) lobbied politicians to deliver this National Forest land to the company with the intent to build a destructive copper mine. By SinaguaWiki – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=98967960
Click the link to read the article on the AZCentral website (Debra Utacia Krol). Here’s an excerpt:
August 20, 2025
Key Points
Hours after the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals blocked a land swap for a copper mine at Oak Flat, President Donald Trump called the mine’s critics “Anti-American.”
Tribal leaders reacted quickly, reminding the president that they are the first Americans and are trying to protect their sacred lands.
Trump reportedly met with mining executives at the White House and, in his Truth Social post, argued that the United States needed to protect its copper reserves.
Arizona tribal leaders struck back after President Donald Trump called opponents of a planned copper mine at Oak Flat “anti-American,” suggesting they were allied with other copper-producing countries like China. Trump posted comments on Truth Social on Aug. 19, hours after the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appealsย temporarily halted a land exchangeย that would allow Resolution Copper to build the mine on a site east of Phoenix held sacred by the Apache people and other Indigenous communities. “Those that fought (the mine) are Anti-American, and representing other Copper competitive Countries,” Trump wrote, while claiming that the 9th Circuit Court is “a Radical Left Court.” He did not include any evidence to support his claims…Currently,ย 10 of the judges on the 9th Circuit’s panel are Trump appointees;ย another three are Republican-appointed justices, while the remaining 16 judges in the circuit court are Democratic appointees, according to the legal news outlet Daily Journal. The president also said the U.S. needs copper now…
In aย Facebook postย on Aug. 20, San Carlos Apache Tribe Chairman Terry Rambler hit back: “As first Americans, the San Carlos Apache Tribe agrees on the importance of protecting Americaโs interests,” he said, but “the Presidentโs comments mirror misinformation that has been repeated by foreign mining interests that want to extract American copper.” Rambler also pointed out that a Chinese company, Chinalco, is the largest shareholder of Rio Tinto and BHP, the two British-Australian firms that jointly own Resolution Copper. “Of course their interest is in mining this copper and shipping it to China.” With just three smelters in the U.S., and one of those currently non-functional, mines have been shipping crushed ore to China for processing for years.
The San Carlos Apache Tribe and a coalition of environmental groups have fought for years against the Resolution Copper mine, which would become one of the countryโs largest at the cost of a site revered by the tribe.
Just hours before the deal was set to go through, a federal appeals court temporarily blocked a land transfer in Arizona on Monday that would ultimately lead to the destruction of a site sacred to Western Apache people.
The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appealsโ temporary restraining order is the latest in a long-running saga in which the U.S. Forest Service has planned to transfer the land to a mining company, Resolution Copper, while the San Carlos Apache Tribe and a coalition of environmental groups have fought to protect the sacred site of Oak Flat, or Chรญโchil Biลdagoteel in Apache.
The company has worked for two decades to gain access to the 2,200 acres of land in Tonto National Forest that contains both the sacred site and one of the worldโs largest untapped copper deposits. The restraining order halts the land transfer until the court can rule on two consolidated cases, which have argued in lower courts that approval of the land transfer and mine violates the National Environmental Policy Act and failed to adequately consult with the tribe.
โThe Apache people will never stop fighting for Chรญโchil Biลdagoteel,โ said San Carlos Apache Tribe Chairman Terry Rambler in a statement. โWe thank the court for stopping this horrific land exchange and allowing us to argue the merits of our pending lawsuit in court.โ
A spokesperson for Resolution Copper said in a written statement that the order is โmerely a temporary pause so that the court of appeals can consider plaintiffsโ eleventh hour motions,โ and that the company is โconfident the court will ultimately affirm the district courtโs well-reasoned orders explaining in detail why the congressionally directed land exchange satisfies all applicable legal requirements.โ
U.S. District Judge Dominic W. Lanza on Friday denied the tribe and environmental groupsโ challenges, which had cleared the way for the land transfer to go through. In his order, he acknowledged the mine would destroy the sacred area and use a massive amount of the regionโs scarce groundwater. But he noted that the transfer was signed into law in 2014 by President Barack Obamaโmandated by Congress in a rider attached to a defense billโand that the Supreme Court declined to hear another case challenging the mine.
A spokesperson from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which oversees the Forest Service, declined to comment on the latest court order, but said the bill authorizing the land transfer aligns with the Trump administrationโs efforts โto strengthen domestic mineral and energy production, advancing the nationโs economic and strategic goals.โ
In April, the Trump administration signaled it would approve the project. A years-long religious freedom case brought by Apache Stronghold, an Apache religious group, was denied by the Supreme Court in May. Then, the U.S. Forest Service postedthe final environmental impact statement and draft record of decision for the Resolution Copper project, setting the stage for Oak Flat to be transferred to the mining company by Aug. 19.
Since then, the proposed mine has become one of the most high-profile environmental battles in the U.S. The 9th Circuitโs order requires the tribe and environmental groups to file their opening brief by Sept. 9, with answering briefs from the Forest Service and Resolution Copper due by Sept. 29.
โWeโre thankful that the court has paused this ill-conceived land exchange that would destroy Oak Flat and all that makes it special, including the old Emory oak trees, endangered hedgehog cactus, and its significant cultural and recreational values,โ said Sandy Bahr, director of the Sierra Clubโs Grand Canyon Chapter, in a statement. The Sierra Club is one of the plaintiffs. โThere is still a lot to do to save this special place, but we remain committed to doing everything we can to ensure Oak Flat is here for future generations.โ
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
Yesterday was a hoot. The workshop “Pathways to a Pool – How to Make Voluntary Conservation Add Up” was a firehose of information and ideas as to how Colorado can work to shore up storage on the Colorado River and keep agriculture whole. Another highlight was Governor Polis’ recap of what the state has accomplished during his time in office and his introduction of ColoradoRiver.com.
Save The Poudre will not appeal a judge’s ruling allowing Thornton’s pipeline project to proceed.
The environmental advocacy group focused on the Poudre River contends Colorado water law, created more than 100 years ago, is not in line with public values today.
Save The Poudre urges Thornton to take a more active role in protecting and restoring the Poudre River
In announcing the decision not to appeal the judge’s ruling, Save The Poudre Executive Director Gary Wockner said Colorado’s water law gives agencies the right to drain rivers, and it doesn’t seem like a wise use of resources to appeal when a challenge would likely fail…
Todd Barnes, communications director for the city of Thornton, noted the deadline to appeal is still ahead, on Aug. 21. He said Thornton doesn’t plan to issue a statement about the development as of now…Thornton and Northern Water have planned to co-locate a few miles of their pipelines to reduce disruption. But Barnes said Thornton has heard nothing concrete from NISP. Regardless, he said, the city will follow through with all of the requirements of its permit, which includes co-location.
The Yampa River Core Trail runs right through downtown Steamboat. Photo credit City of Steamboat Springs.
I’m hopping on my bicycle for the ride up the Yampa River to the Steamboat Grand for Day 1 of the Colorado Water Congress Summer Convention. Today starts with workshops and then the general sessions kick off after lunch. Here’s the agenda and Timeline: https://coloradowatercongress.growthzoneapp.com/ap/CloudFile/Download/rX4NKmlr
Visitor volume to Las Vegas in June was down 11.3% from the previous year, according to local statistics. Visitation to Southwestern national parks is also lagging. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Last month I took a look at national park visitation numbers for the first half of the year to try to get a sense of how a drop in international travelers is affecting Western gateway communities. It wasnโt all that conclusive: Most parks were seeing numbers similar to in the past, though they were beginning to dip in June.
Now July figures are available for many parks, and they show that the June slump was no anomaly. Media reports indicate the tourism sectors across the West is starting to feel the pain.
The Moab Times-Independentreported that community resort taxes for April were down 11% from the previous year. And that was even before visitation had started dropping off at national parks. Moabโs figures for June and July arenโt available yet, but local business owners told the Times-Independent that theyโve seen fewer international tourists this year. A Colorado Sunstory by Jason Blevins records the same phenomenon on Coloradoโs Western Slope, where visitation and tourist spending has dropped since last year.
The World Travel & Tourism Council predicted the U.S. will lose about $12.5 billion in international spending this year and is the only nation it tracks that is seeing a decline in tourism. Visitation from the U.K., Germany, South Korea, Canada, and other European countries is down significantly.
โThis is a wake-up call for the U.S. government,โ said Travel & Tourism Council President Julia Simpson in a written statement. โWhile other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.โ That is to say, Trump administration policies and actions are generally hostile toward the rest of the world, which understandably is dampening the desire to travel to the U.S.
The good news is the crowds are ebbing slightly at some of the Westโs most popular national parks. This, of course, isnโt so good for the economies of nearby communities that have come to rely almost entirely on tourism.
Some numbers:
Zion National Park had 529,798 visitors in July, a huge number, yes, but also the third lowest in the last decade (with only 2018 and COVID-affected 2020 lower).
Canyonlands had its second slimmest visitation in July since 2014.
Capitol Reef saw 111,183 visitors in July, which is higher than in 2022 (107,562), but lower than during any other year since 2014.
Lake Mead NRA saw 1.18 million visitors this June and July combined, the second lowest (after 2023) number for those two months since 1981. This jibes with tourism statistics for Las Vegas, where total visitor volume in June was down a whopping 11.3% from last year.
Itโs a similar story at Bryce Canyon, Natural Bridges National Monument, Mesa Verde, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Joshua Tree, Great Sand Dunes, and the Grand Canyon (there is a huge fire burning there, after all, but the South Rim remains open).
The downward trend does not seem to have spread further north. Glacier, Yellowstone, and Grand Teton national parks are doing fine so far this year.
Hoover Dam, at Lake Mead National Recreation Area, where visitation is down significantly from past years. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
๐ฅต Aridification Watch ๐ซ
The good news: As I write this, there is a flash flood watch for parts of the Phoenix area and on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon.
The bad news, climate-wise: Just about everything else.
This yearโs dry and hot spell continues, manifested in trickling streams and smoky skies and heat-related death. The current โspellโ is a continuation of the quarter-century-long megadrought that is the worst to hit the Southwest in 1,200 years. And a new study finds the aridification likely will continue well into the future.
Letโs start with the study.
University of Colorado researchers have found that the Colorado River Basinโs megadrought is linked to the Pacific decadal oscillation climate pattern, in which the oceanโs water temperatures fluctuate and move around in two-decade-long cycles. Or at least thatโs whatโs supposed to happen. But since the early 1990s, the oscillation has been stuck in its negative phase, causing a reduction in precipitation in the Southwest.
While the oscillation is natural, the researchers found that it can also be influenced by external forces, and since the middle of the last century, greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions have had an increasing impact and have been responsible for a good part of the megadrought. What this means, researchers say, is that if greenhouse gas emissions continue at current levels โ which they almost undoubtedly will, given the societal reticence to give up fossil fuel burning โ then the drought will continue for decades to come.
Meaning this yearโs desiccation is, indeed, part of the new normal, which is damned frightening.
The ongoing aridification can be seen in very concrete ways in the streamflows โ or lack thereof โ in my home river, the Animas in southwestern Colorado (which I choose because its flow through Durango is largely unregulated, given there are no dams or large diversions upstream).
Today, the flow through Durango dropped below 150 cubic feet per second, putting some sections into the boat-bottom-dragging territory, and prompting rafting companies to consider shutting down operations early. But thatโs bountiful compared to whatโs happening downstream: The river below Aztec and through Farmington has come perilously close to drying out altogether. Check out the charts of the last month compared to last year:
The blue line is this yearโs streamflow in cubic feet per second (149 cfs and falling) compared to last year (in the kahki/olive green color). Last year, flows didnโt even drop below 200 cfs before the monsoon came, pushing it back up into the 600s. This year it dropped below 200 cfs in early August, and with no significant rainfall in sight is likely to continue dropping.
Float downstream (if you can) a few dozen miles, and past more diversion points, and things look really grim. The Animas below Aztec dropped below 8 cfs for a moment before jumping back up on Aug. 14. While the increase looks like the result of a heavy downpour it was not (there was no rain in the area, and the gage at Cedar Hill, just 11 miles upstream, didnโt show the same spike. That leads me to believe it was the result of a big diversion, probably one of the upstream irrigation ditch withdrawals, being shut off. While it put some water back in the river, itโs still just a trickle.
Hereโs another visual, sent to my by David Fosdeck. It shows the new surf wave infrastructure on the Animas as it runs through Farmington. Surf is not up, needless to say.
Farmingtonโs new surf wave, sans surf. Source: David Fosdeck.
Lake Powellโs surface level has now dropped down to 3,552 feet above sea level, almost exactly what it was on this date in 2021.
And now for a quick update on the current fire situation:
The Lee Fire in Rio Blanco County, Colorado, has reached 134,000 acres, making it theย fifth largest blazeย on record in the stateโs history. It is only 10% contained, meaning thereโs a damned good chance it will jump up to the third largest before long.
The Stoner Mesa Fire in the southwest corner of the state has grown to 7,400 acres.
The Middle Mesa Fire east of Navajo Reservoir and just south of the Colorado-New Mexico line is now 92% contained.
The Dragon Bravo Fire on the Grand Canyonโs North Rim is up to 145,000 acres, but is 56% contained.
The other day, I was chatting with the venerable Sammy Roth of the Los Angeles Times for his Boiling Point podcast. We were talking about how fire season has changed in my lifetime, and I remarked that up until 2002, the Lime Creek Burn โ which in 1879 charred forests south of Silverton โ was the largest blaze in the stateโs recorded history.
When I told Roth that the blaze was a mere 26,000 acres, he looked a little befuddled. Thatโs because in this age of megafires, a 26,000-acre wildfire is relatively small. In fact, the Lime Creek Burn no longer makes the stateโs top 20 largest blazes โ all of which have occurred since 2002. Even the 70,000-acre Missionary Ridge Fire, which seemed gargantuan when it blew through forests north of Durango in 2002, is now only number 7, er, 8 (because the Lee Fire slotted in above it).
Climate change: United Nations โข Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Human activities have been the main driver of climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas.
The lack of a good monsoon so far has also meant the lack of cooling afternoon rains in the hottest parts of the Southwest. And that has exacerbated the danger posed by the heat. Phoenix has suffered through an unusually hot August so far, with daily average temperatures reaching 11 degrees higher than normal. If current trends continue, this could end up being the hottest August on record for the city.
And itโs taking its toll on the people of Phoenix, as Maricopa Countyโs heat-related mortality report shows. So far this year the heat has killed or contributed to the deaths of 35 people, but another 369 cases remain under investigation (at the end of the year, most of these tend to end up in the heat-caused or heat-contributed category).
๐ธย Parting Shotย ๐๏ธ
Dragonfly in Natural Bridges National Monument. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
Coyote Gulch on the Yampa River Core Trail August 2022 during the Colorado Water Congress Summer Conference.
I’m heading over to Steamboat Springs for the CWC 2025 Summer Conference “Conservation: Meeting Demands, Managing Responsibly”. Follow along on my BlueSky feed: https://bsky.app/profile/coyotegulch.bsky.social. I also hope to get a few posts up here at Coyote Gulch.
As of Tuesday, the Animas River was running noticeably low โ at 35% normalcy for this time of year, according to a recentย SnoFloย report. According to U.S. Geological Surveyย data, the streamflow on Tuesday was at 153 cubic feet per second, and its gauge height was measured at 2.17 feet. Last week, the flow sat around 199 cfs, with the water height resting near the 2.24-foot level, representing a small piece of a larger decline seen historically across the riverโs history…
Aquatic wildlife can be impacted by low river levels, said John Livingston, spokesman with Colorado Parks and Wildlife. One effect of low water levels is an overgrowth of riverbed vegetation. Algae, in an attempt to get closer to the sun, may grow thicker and taller than usual, Livingston said. In the Animas River, blue-green algae blooms, also called cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms, are the most likely culprits of this overgrowth, he said.
Late light on Glen Canyon rock formations. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
August 1, 2025
When I was in college and my friends all went to study abroad, I attended a field study program run by The Sierra Institute, an outpost of the University of California, Santa Cruz. Over the course of an academic quarter, we learned about four California ecosystems by studyingย inย them: the Mojave Desert, the Big Sur coast, the High Sierra and the Klamath Mountains. Along the way we hiked and camped and read and wrote and took turns with cooking, cleanup, fire tending and latrine duty.ย
โNature, Philosophy and Religionโ was the course title and our area of inquiry. We studied the thinkers and spiritual traditions that have been concerned with the splendor of nature, the sustenance humans get from it, and our mutual symbiosis. We considered our own obligations as individuals and as a species. Rather than a distant place and foreign language, we immersed ourselves in the ways that humans live with, steward and find holiness in the natural world.
These are not values I see reflected in todayโs political discourse. Our government is working to cancel any programs aimed at sustainability. Elected and appointed officials are erasing climate data and defunding climate action. They are seeking to sell and develop public land and ignoring, at great risk, the ways humans depend on healthy natural systems. They have no interest in the ethics of their policies: who or what will be impacted, and how. Any deference to the land and its creatures โ canceled!
Jennifer Sahn, editor-in-chief. Photo credit: High Country News
If everyone could do an extended field study program, could be exposed to natural wonder and experience close-knit community, perhaps the idea of having a responsibility toward the Earth, each other and future generations would be more widely understood and accepted. If youโve havenโt learned why itโs important to respect and preserve natural systems, how would you understand that you have a choice, at this very moment, to be on the side of life โย allย life โ and against the denigration and desecration of habitats and wild places, the last refugia where humans are required to show restraint. Atย High Country News, we side with life.
Sadly, after 40 years of running field programs in the backcountry, The Sierra Institute closed in 2015. A post on its Facebook page read, โIt is something of a mystery as to why over the last decade the programs became more and more difficult to fill, but it is likely due to a broader cultural change than merely a miscalculation of how to advertise and promote.โ The broader cultural change we so desperately need is one in which people believe in the value of nature because they have experienced it and want to continue experiencing it, and because they want those experiences to be available to future generations.
Colorado River water flows through La Paz County, Arizona on August 6, 2025. The Central Arizona Project is among the agencies facing cutbacks on water supply while the river is under shortage conditions. Alex Hager/KUNC
Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Alex Hager):
August 15, 2025
This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage.
The latest projections for the Colorado River are out, and they paint a picture of more dry conditions and dropping reservoirs.
The river supplies water to nearly 40 million people across the Southwest, and itโs stretched thin by climate change and steady demand. New data from the Bureau of Reclamation shows low inflows and dropping water levels at the nationโs two largest reservoirs โ Lake Powell and Lake Mead. This is just the latest bad news in the midst of a megadrought going back more than two decades.
Projected Lake Mead end-of-month physical elevations from the latest 24-Month Study inflow scenarios.
Projected Lake Powell end-of-month physical elevations from the latest 24-Month Study inflow scenarios.
The river will enter 2026 in a โTier 1 Shortage,โ under which Arizona and Nevada will face mandatory cutbacks to their water supply. While they put some water users in an uncomfortable pinch, those cutbacks arenโt raising the same alarm bells they once did. Dry conditions and water reductions have become a sort of new normal. Shortage conditions for the lower Colorado River basin were first declared in 2021, and have been in place since.
On the ground, the agencies that have to deal with these cutbacks seem to be adapting. Major water users tout their conservation efforts. The towns and cities that are most likely to face permanent reductions to their water use are putting hundreds of millions of dollars into systems that will steel them against smaller water deliveries in the future.
This 2023 diagram shows the tubes through which Lake Powell’s fish can pass through to the section of the Colorado River that flows through the Grand Canyon. Credit: USGS and Reclamation 2023
Meanwhile, further upstream, dropping levels at Lake Powell are creating a near-term crisis. The new federal water data shows the reservoir ending this year only 27% full. If it drops much lower, the reservoir could fall below the pipes which allow water to flow through hydropower generators inside the dam โ jeopardizing electricity generation for about five million people across seven states. The new data shows that could happen as soon as November 2026.
The back of Glen Canyon Dam circa 1964, not long after the reservoir had begun filling up. Here the water level is above dead pool, meaning water can be released via the river outlets, but it is below minimum power pool, so water cannot yet enter the penstocks to generate electricity. Bureau of Reclamation photo. Annotations: Jonathan P. Thompson
Policymakers who can shape the regionโs long-term response to dry conditions have been facing mounting calls for action. They are under pressure to come up with new rules for managing the river in the long-term before the current guidelines expire in 2026.
Cynthia Campbell, who directs a water policy research center at Arizona State University, said instead of urgently working on a long-term plan, those policymakers seem to have spent the past few years โgamblingโ on the idea that water might come back and reverse the crisis at major reservoirs.
โIf they were betting on that,โ she said, โThen they’re losing, because it is continuing to march on. Mother Nature is continuing to march on, and we’re continuing to see declines in the system.โ
While some small glimmers of hope have emerged from negotiations, water managers from the seven states that use the Colorado River seem stuck at an impasse.
โWe have yet to see any courage in the sense of making choices that will bolster long-term system reliability,โ said Campbell, who formerly served as a top water lawyer for the city of Phoenix. โThere seems to be an unwillingness on the collected parties to do that, and that is not good news.โ
Climate scientists say the riverโs dry conditions are unlikely to turn around anytime soon. A warming, drying climate is sapping the region of its water at every turn, and significant reductions to demand are likely the only solution to that new reality.
Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (Elise Schmelzer). Here’s an excerpt:
August 15, 2025
Drought and long, hot summer days are sucking Western Coloradoโs rivers dry, parching farm fields and fueling the massive wildfires proliferating across the region. A chunk of northwestern Colorado in the last week plunged into exceptional drought โ the most dire category recorded by the U.S. Drought Monitor. The swath of affected land represents 7% of the state and covers most of Garfield and Rio Blanco counties, as well as parts of Moffat, Mesa, Delta, Routt and Pitkin counties…Exceptional drought is expected to occur once every 50 years, [Russ] Schumacher said. So far this summer, the afternoon monsoon rains that provide relief have been largely absent from the Western Slope. The higher-than-normal temperatures and a lack of rain have sapped the rivers in the Western half of Colorado. Streamflows statewide are at only half of the median recorded between 1991 and 2020,ย according to National Water and Climate Center data. The lack of water has limited fishing and rafting opportunities, reduced agricultural irrigation and threatened river environments…Nearly half of Colorado is experiencing some level of drought, according to newย data released Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor. More than 1.4 million people live in that drought-impacted area, which encompasses the entire western half of the state, parts of metro Denver and some areas of southern Colorado…
This summer has been one of the driest on record for the stateโs critical Colorado River basin, similar to 2018 and 2021, said Calahan of the Colorado River District. Drought in those years made the Colorado River look more like a creek than a river and promptedย a 120-mile-long fishing banย on its mainstem…Streamflow in the basin is worst on its western flank and best on its eastern side near the headwaters, he said…The [Colorado River] district is speaking weekly with irrigators across the region to best divvy up the water that remains. Low flows are being supplemented by releases from reservoirs…A lack of water in the Eagle River near Vail prompted local water authorities to warn of a potential coming water shortage. Flows on the river near Avon were about half of normal โ and the third-lowest recorded on the stream gaugeโs 26-year record, said Siri Roman, the general manager of theย Eagle River Water and Sanitation District…Thirteen of the 14 stream gauges with historic data in the Upper San Juan basin were reporting flows below or extremely below normal on Wednesday.ย The Animas River in Durangoย was flowing at 153 cubic feet per second โ a fraction of the median of 499 cfs for the day across 113 years of data, and close to the historic low for that date of 137 cfs…Several stream gauges in the basin were recording record daily lows, like the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs and on Vallecito Creek…On the opposite side of the state, the Yampa River basin, too, is struggling. The river above Stagecoach Reservoir was flowing at less than half of the 36-year median.
As wildfire crews battled the Dragon Bravo Fire on the Grand Canyonโs North Rim in July 2025, the air turned toxic.
A chlorine gas leak had erupted from the parkโs water treatment facility as the building burned, forcing firefighters to pull back. The water treatment facility is part of a system that draws water from a fragile spring. Itโs the only water source and system for the park facilities on both rims, including visitor lodging and park service housing.
The fire also damaged some of the areaโs water pipes and equipment, leaving fire crews to rely on a fleet of large water trucks to haul in water and raising concerns about contamination risks to the water system itself.
By mid-August, Dragon Bravo was a โmegafire,โ having burned over 140,000 acres, and was one of the largest fires in Arizona history. It had destroyed more than 70 structures, including the iconic Grand Canyon Lodge, and sent smoke across the region.
A National Park Service worker assesses a split in an exposed section of the Grand Canyonโs fragile water lines in 2014. The water pipeline, installed in the mid-1960s, feeds water from Roaring Springs, located approximately 3,500 feet below the North Rim. Grand Canyon National Park via Flickr
Wildfires like this are increasingly affecting water supplies across the U.S. and creating a compounding crisis that experts in water, utilities and emergency management are only beginning to wrestle with.
A pattern across the West
Before 2017, when the Tubbs Fire burned through neighborhoods on the edge of Santa Rosa, California, most research on the nexus of wildfire and water had focused on issues such as drought and how climate change effects ecosystems.
The Tubbs Fire destroyed thousands of buildings and also melted plastic water pipes. After the fire, a residentโs complaint about the taste and odor of tap water led to the discovery that the fireโs damage had introduced contaminants including benzene, a carcinogen, into parts of the public water system.
It quickly became obvious that the damage discovered at the Tubbs Fire was not unique.
In southern Oregon, the 2020 Almeda Fire damaged water pipes in buildings, leaving water to flow freely. That contributed to low system pressure just when people fighting the fire needed the water.
Water meters and pipes are vulnerable to damage during a fire. Andrew Whelton/Purdue University, CC BY
In Colorado, the 2021 Marshall Fire burned through urban water lines, damaging six public drinking-water systems along with more than 1,000 structures in the Boulder suburbs. All six systems lost power, which in some cases led to a loss of water pressure, hampering firefighting.
As firefighters worked on the Marshall Fire, water system operators raced to keep water flowing and contaminants from being transported into the water systems. But tests still detected chemical contamination, including benzene, in parts of the systems a few weeks later.
Then, in January 2025, the Los Angeles fires supercharged concerns about water and wildfire. As firefighters raced to put out multiple fires, hydrants ran dry in some parts of the region, while others at higher elevations depressurized. Ultimately, over 16,000 structures were damaged, leading to insured losses estimated to be as high as US$45 billion.
Water supplies are crucial to fighting fires. In cities, fire crews like this one battling the Palisades Fire in Los Angeles in January 2025 can often rely on hydrants. But water systems can lose pressure and potentially the power to run their pumps during fires. AP Photo/Etienne Laurent
Water infrastructure is not merely collateral damage during wildfires โ it is now a central concern.
It also raises the question: What can residents, first responders and decision-makers reasonably expect from water systems that werenโt designed with todayโs disasters in mind?
Addressing the growing fire and water challenge
While no two water systems or fires are the same, nearly every water system component, ranging from storage tanks to pipelines to treatment plants, is susceptible to damage.
The Grand Canyonโs Roaring Springs system exemplifies the complexity and fragility of older systems. It supplies water to both rims of the park through a decades-old network of gravity-fed pipes and tunnels and includes the water treatment facility where firefighters were forced to retreat because of the chlorine leak.
Many water systems have vulnerable points within or near flammable wildlands, such as exposed pump houses that are crucial for pulling water from lower elevations to where it is needed.
A stand pipe at Zorthian Ranch in Altadena, Calif., failed during the January 2025 fire there, making it even more difficult for Alan Zorthian to fight the flames sweeping across his property. He used a pump drawing water from a swimming pool to try to fight the flames, but numerous structures were destroyed. Myung J. Chun/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
In addition, hazardous materials such as chlorine or ammonia may be stored on-site and require special considerations in high fire risk areas. Staff capacity is often limited; some small utilities depend on a single operator, and budgets may be too constrained to modernize aging infrastructure or implement fire mitigation measures.
As climate change intensifies wildfire seasons, these vulnerabilities can become disaster risks that require making water infrastructure a more integral part of fighting and preparing for wildfires.
Prioritizing fire-resistant construction, better shielding of chemicals and, in some cases, decentralizing water systems can help protect critical facilities, particularly in high-risk zones. Having backup power supplies, mobile treatment systems and alternate water sources are essential to provide more security in the face of a wildfire.
Emergency command protocols and interagency coordination are most effective when they include water utilities as essential partners in all phases of emergency response, from planning to response to recovery. Fire crews and water operators can also benefit from joint training in emergency response, especially when system failure could hinder firefighting itself.
Longer term, protecting upstream watersheds from severe fire by thinning forests and using controlled burns, along with erosion control measures, can help maintain water quality and reduce water pollution in the aftermath of fires.
Smaller and more isolated systems, particularly in tribal or low-income communities, often need assistance to plan or implement new measures. These systems may require technical assistance, and regional support hubs could support communities with additional resources, including personnel and equipment, so they can respond quickly when crises strike.
Looking ahead
The Dragon Bravo Fire isnโt just a wildfire story, itโs also a water story, and it signals a larger, emerging challenge across the West. As fire seasons expand in size and complexity, the overlap between fire and water will only grow.
The Grand Canyon fire offers a stark illustration of how wildfire can escalate into a multifaceted infrastructure crisis: Fire can damage water infrastructure, which in turn limits firefighting capabilities and stresses water supplies.
The question is not whether this will happen again. Itโs how prepared communities will be when it does.
The latest US Drought Monitor (released August 14) highlights big changes to the current drought situation in western Colorado, including the introduction of โexceptionalโ or โD4โ conditions to some locations. Exceptional drought represents the most severe category of drought and is frequently tied to widespread hydrologic and agricultural impacts.
Colorado Drought Monitor map August 12, 2025.
Historical context and current impacts
Exceptional drought hasnโt been seen in Colorado since May 2023, when a very small fraction of the southeast corner of the state (Baca County) was classified under such conditions. And the last time that exceptional drought conditions were realized in the western half of the state was nearly four years ago in October 2021, when parts of Moffat County were included in the D4 category. The current exceptional drought area covers a larger fraction of the state than either of those two recent examples (roughly 7% of it) and includes portions of Moffat, Routt, Rio Blanco, Garfield, Eagle, Pitkin, Gunnison, Delta, and Mesa counties.
Coloradoโs โhigh and dryโ climate makes it no stranger to drought, and some part of the state will be experiencing some degree of drought at any nearly any given time. However, long-livedexceptional drought tends to be rarer. Since the inception of the US Drought Monitor, there have been four widespread and persistent periods of exceptional drought, with the most recent being 2020-2021.
Time series showing the percent of Colorado that has been classified under D4 or exceptional drought conditions from 2000-present.
Current impacts to water, soils, and vegetation in the most drought-afflicted areas help capture the current severity of the situation. For example, streamflow along the White River at Meeker is in the 1stย percentile among its 121-year record, and current flow is very close to the stationโs all-time record low. Many other streamgauge sites, including those along the Yampa, Colorado, Animas, and Dolores rivers, show streamflow below the 10thย percentile, indicating well below-normal flow conditions.
Left: Hydrograph showing 7-day averaged streamflow for 2025 (black line) compared to previous years and various percentiles for the White River near Meeker. Right: USGS streamgauge sites in Colorado. [Source: USGS]
The multiple wildfires currently burning across western Colorado are evidence that there is stress on vegetation and soils in the drought-afflicted areas. This includes the Lee Fire (near Meeker, CO), which at over 127,000 acres is now firmly Coloradoโs fifth-largest wildfireย on record. Satellite-based drought products show severe vegetation stress and soil moisture percentiles below the 5thย percentile, further confirming that surface conditions are extremely dry in western Colorado.
Left: Active wildfires and perimeters across western Colorado. Data are from August 14. [Source: NIFC] Right: Vegetation Drought Response Index valid August 10. [Source: NDMC/USGS]
How did we get here? A look back at Water Year 2025
With only about a month and a half left in Water Year 2025, it is worth looking back at how the drought landscape has changed in Colorado since last October. Water years run from October 1 to September 30 and are designed to capture the movement of water from the time that streamflows are generally at their minimum (in the fall), through the build up of the water supply as snowpack during the winter, to the annual runoff in the spring and summer. Keeping track of drought and precipitation over the course of a water year is helpful for tracking and managing water resources.
At the start of the Water Year 2025, nearly everywhere west of the Continental Divide was drought-free, while the Front Range, Urban Corridor, and parts of the Eastern Plains were experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions. That pattern has switched in many ways, with most areas east of the Divide now currently drought-free, while nearly everywhere west of the Divide is being impacted by at least D1 drought conditions. The class change map comparing the drought monitor at the start of Water Year 2025 to the current drought monitor highlights this shift well:
Left: US Drought Monitor from October 1, 2024. Right: US Drought Monitor class change map from October 1, 2024 compared to the latest US Drought Monitor (August 12, 2025).
The current drought in western Colorado did not immediately unfold at the onset of the new water year. In early winter, drought was largely avoided in this area in part thanks to a major snowstorm in early November (refresh your memory with our blog post here). That event brought drought relief to much of the Eastern Plains and gave an early boost to the winter snowpack for most of the rest of the state.
However, the snow largely ceased across southern Colorado in December and January, and substantial high country snowpack deficits became apparent by the end of February, with the snowpack in several basins standing at only ~2/3rds of average. At the beginning of March, most of southwestern Colorado and the lower elevations of the West were experiencing D1-D2 drought conditions according to the US Drought Monitor.
While the stateโs northern river basins were spared from significant snowpack deficits for most of the winter, March and April ended up being drier than normal. For this part of Colorado, the spring months are typically the wettest on average, and they are crucial months for amassing snowpack to accommodate warm season water needs (in the form of runoff). While deficits remained in better shape compared to southern Coloradoโs basins, snowpack peaked earlier than normal across much of the state. This below-average winter snowpack has undoubtedly played an important role in the current drought situation across the western half of the state.
This brings us to mid-Mayโthe last time we wrote a blog post about drought. By that time, most areas west of the Continental Divide were experiencing some level of drought, including D3 or โextremeโ drought conditions over parts of the West Slope and San Juans. Aside from a decent precipitation event in early June, conditions in western Colorado have been abnormally hot and dry. Northwest Colorado has seen some of the quickest drought development in the state, with some locations going from D0-D1 conditions in Mid-May to D3-D4 conditions just three months later. June-July 2025 was among the top-10 hottest and driest on record for most of that area.
Left: US Drought Monitor from May 13, 2025. Right: US Drought Monitor class change map from May 13, 2025 compared to the latest US Drought Monitor (August 12, 2025).
While areas east of the Divide saw some drought development in the spring as well, much of that was alleviated thanks to widespread and persistent thunderstorm activity throughout the summer. This regular rainfall has also continued to help ward off major drought development (though some locations that have missed out on recent precipitation, such as the Denver Metro, have begun to slip back into drought conditions). Locations west of the Divide have not been as fortunate. These areas typically benefit from the North American Monsoon (NAM), which (when active) provides increased moisture and precipitation throughout July and August. The lack of relief from the NAM combined with the below-average snowpack from last winter have brought us to the current drought situation.
What can we expect in the coming weeks/months?
First, letโs briefly talk precipitation climatology (stay tuned for more on this in an upcoming blog post). For much of the West Slope, August-October tends to be the time of year that this area receives its greatest amounts of precipitation. Seeing that weโre only about halfway through August, there is plenty of time remaining in this wetter time of year. However, this seasonality does not guarantee โdrought-bustingโ precipitation, nor should we expect our weather patterns to perfectly follow climatology.
Percent of average annual precipitation that falls between August-October. [Data from PRISM]
Still, there is a little hope in the medium-range outlook for precipitation in the western half of the state. The 8-14 day precipitation outlook from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center suggests elevated chances for above-average precipitation towards the end of the month, with the greatest likelihood spanning the western and central parts of the state. At the same time, above-average temperatures are expected to persist over this time frame, which could work against precipitation driven drought relief (warmer temperatures are connected to increased evaporative demand, or potential water loss from the Earthโs surface).
8-14 day precipitation (left) and temperature (right) outlooks from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, issued August 13.
Looking even further ahead, the Climate Prediction Center 3-month outlook (August-October) that was released in mid-July does not inspire much optimism for drought relief as we head into fall. Their predictions call for elevated chances of below-normal precipitation across most of Colorado. Additionally, it is becoming increasingly likely that La Niรฑa conditions will develop in late fall to early winter. While there is some evidence thatย La Niรฑa favors wetter conditions over parts of north and central Colorado during the winter months, it favors overall drier conditions statewide, especially during the fall (though the correlations between ENSO phase and precipitation are relatively weak compared to other locations).
(Left) seasonal precipitation outlook for August-October and (right) El Niรฑo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) probabilities through May 2026. [Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
To summarize:ย poor snowpack during the winter teed up western Colorado for drought heading into summer, and the dry, hot conditions over the past few months have exacerbated conditions. These factors have lead to the widespread extreme to exceptional drought conditions that are currently depicted in the US Drought Monitor. There are a couple reasons to remain optimistic about precipitation in following weeks and months, but many uncertainties remain, and *a lot* of precipitation will be needed to alleviate drought conditions in western Colorado.
When I was a kid, I collected pinback buttons, political and otherwise. Most of you probably know what that is, but for the youngs out there, itโs basically an analog meme you pin to your clothing to let folks know which political candidate or other cause you might support.
Iโm pretty sure I had a โJohn Anderson for Presidentโ button. My parents supported the Independent candidate in the 1980 election because he had been a vocal opponent of the Vietnam War. Jimmy Carter, while championing environmental preservation, had supercharged the fossil fuel industries in the West, which ravaged landscapes and economies, losing their support. I had a couple of buttons from the early Snowdown celebrations in Durango, and one from Wolverton Mountain Days, a funky event held at the Durango nordic center whose motto was: โTrack, Telly, Twinkie,โ or something along those lines. Maybe the little collection included a โGilbert Slade for County Commissioner,โ that I would have picked up at one of Sladeโs Democratic Party goat roasts out on the Dryside.
But perhaps the most intriguing one was small, dark blue or black, with a bold white typeface declaring: โFight Blight / Burn a Billboard Tonight.โ I probably had to ask an adult what blight meant, though the second part I understood. It was, perhaps, my first encounter with the concept of monkey-wrenching, or sabotaging equipment or structures or billboards as a form of protest, usually with environmental motivations.
This would have been shortly after Edward Abbeyโs The Monkey Wrench Gang was published (50 years ago this month), in which Doc Sarvis and Bonnie Abbzug did some billboard burning of their own before joining up with Seldom Seen and George Hayduke and moving on to bigger acts of sabotage. But the buttonโs text preceded the novel. The slogan was a favorite of David Brower, according to John McPheeโs โEncounters of the Archdruid,โ which ran in the New Yorker in 1971.
Though I wouldnโt find out until much later, it turns out my father lived out the slogan during his younger days in Silverton, Colorado.
***
Up until the 1950s, Silverton was a full-on mining town, with a little bit of tourism on top. Following World War II, however, the last big mine, the Shenandoah-Dives, shut down. The local economy, sputtered and gasped, ushering in what Silvertonians would come to call the โBlack Decade.โ
Desperate, the townsfolk turned to tourism, capitalizing on a Hollywood-fueled, global fascination with the Wild West of American mythology. The Durango-to-Silverton stretch of railroad switched from hauling ore to carrying sightseers, and almost overnight Silverton morphed from mining town to a facsimile of a Hollywood version of a place that never existed. In order to lure motorists, some local businesses installed billboards along Highway 550 as it dropped into town from Molas Pass.
My parents arrived in Silverton in the 1960s. Mining had come back in force, with Standard Metalsโ American Tunnel facilitating the re-opening of the fabled Sunnyside Mine. Yet the tourism industry and its cheesy theatrics persisted, much to the disgust of my parents and their peers, who were members of a sort of rural Western intelligentsia, drawn there by the mountains, the wildness, the culture, the history, and perhaps most of all, the authenticity of the community. They saw the tchotchke-peddling economy as the antithesis of the richer, more real mining culture.
In July 1963, Terry Marshall summed up the sentiment in a Silverton Standard editorial on the surreal scene that unfolded every day at โtrain time.โ
Ultimately, the town would pass statutes and rules that reined in the carnival atmosphere. Yet the billboards on 550 remained and fell into disrepair, and efforts to have the highway department take them down apparently went nowhere. One day in the late 1960s โ the story goes 1ย โ my father was telling his cousin about his frustration with the situation, not just at how ugly the billboards were, but at the powerlessness to do anything about it. This relative (who will remain nameless), suggested in his sanguine way: โLetโs just burn it.โ
And so, on one dark night, thatโs exactly what they did, with my mother possibly driving the get-away car, nearly a decade before the fictional George Hayduke sabotaged the equipment building the road through Comb Ridge. My father and accomplices were never caught. Indeed, the billboard was so damned ugly that maybe nobody cared.
***
People who knew or knew of my father might find it incredible that he would go to this extreme. He was a diplomat and uniter, someone who could bring together disparate factions to benefit the community. He also had a strong moral compass and cared deeply about this land and its communities, and would do what he could to defend it โ within reason โ even if it may have skirted the law just a little bit.
I know this because when I was maybe 12 or 13, I went camping with my dad and his friend and the friendโs kid. It was way up near Raplee Ridge, in southeastern Utah, looking down into the San Juan River, on a dusty two-track. On the way to the campsite, we noticed some survey flags sticking up from the sparse and rocky earth.
This would have been the early 1980s, when the Carter-era quest for โenergy independenceโ was still in full-force, and miners and drillers were ripping apart the Western landscape for whatever uranium, coal, oil and gas, or oil shale they could find. My young heart ached at the realization that the stakes marked a future extraction site, that soon the bulldozers and the drill rigs would show up and tear the earth apart and suck out whatever minerals dwelled down there.
On the way back, the adults stopped the car near the site, told us kids to stay put, got out, walked over to the stakes, methodically pulled them out of the ground, and threw them over the edge of the cliff. Then they got back in and we drove away, without saying anything else about it. It was a soothing site to witness, even from the remove of the old car.
The site was never developed or drilled or mined, though Iโm guessing that had less to do with this little act of sabotage than with the fact that the energy booms all faded shortly thereafter. For them, however, it was a significant act of resistance, and perhaps of love for the Place. Maybe just as importantly, they were defying the powerlessness we feel in the face of the churning gears of progress and greed, apathy and cruelty.
***
The Monkey Wrench Gang is often considered monkey-wrenchingโs literary debut. Itโs not. Two years before Abbey published his book, there was Jim Harrisonโs A Good Day to Die, which followed a trio on a Florida-to-Idaho road trip in a quest to blow up a dam.
Harrisonโs protagonist is named Tim, a Hayduke-esque guy just back from a couple tours in Vietnam, scarred in more ways than one and with a hankering for booze and pills to ease the pain. The storyโs narrator, a bit of a cad with relationship issues, is on a fishing trip and escapist odyssey in Floridaโs Keys when he encounters Tim. During a drinking session, the narrator tells Tim offhandedly that thereโs a dam in the Grand Canyon, or at least they are planning one, pushing Tim into a melancholic slump. โJesus Christ,โ he says, โit will fill up with water.โ
Tim is immediately fixated by the idea, noting that he has never seen the Grand Canyon. The narrator โhad seen Glen Canyon years ago before it was literally drowned and liked it better but any comparison was absurd with such splendors.โ After a little more thought, he notes, casually: โWe probably ought to blow up the goddamn thing.โ
Tim takes the idea and runs with it, though it isnโt entirely clear what his motives are. Is he truly looking to defend the environment and free the Colorado River? Is he seeking to punish those who deigned dam up something as sacred as the Grand Canyon? Or is he merely lashing out at the general injustice of the world, hoping to be heard among all the cruel noise?
Whatever it is, the narrator gets caught up in it, too, maybe just to have a bit of purpose beyond baking in the sun and waiting for the fish to bite. When Tim suggests a trip West, the narrator hesitates and says only if they return quickly. But as the story progresses he becomes more invested in the act, even if it is only a means for pursuing the alluring Sylvia, Timโs on-again-off-again girlfriend.
When they discover there is no dam in the Grand Canyon, the narrator refuses to abandon the mission, and suggests they instead decommission an earthen dam on a tributary of the Clearwater in Idaho, โwhere a wealthy rancher ruined a good steelhead stream โฆ out of greed and contempt for the natural world.โ Once the new target is picked, the narrator feels โstrong and clean and very moral. Heroic, in fact.โ 2
***
A Good Day to Die may have preceded and even inspired the Monkey Wrench Gang, but the latter was far more widely read and influential. Abbeyโs classic was published 50 years ago this month, inspiring many acts of low- and high-level eco-sabotage in the decades that followed. And in 1985, Bill Haywood and Dave Foreman published a manual for Abbeyโs acolytes called Ecodefense: A Field Guide to Monkeywrenching.
Monkeywrenchers pulled up survey stakes by the dozen, spiked trees to halt logging projects, cut commercial fishing drift nets, dumped sand and corn syrup into bulldozersโ gas tanks and crankcases, vandalized ski-lift supports, cut power to uranium mines, and plotted to topple transmission towers carrying electricity from nuclear plants. Some were caught. Others were not.
In the late 1990s, factions of the Animal Liberation Front and the Earth Liberation Front took it up a notch by torching a Bureau of Land Management wild horse captivity facility in Burns, Oregon. Then, in 1998, they burned down several structures at the Vail Ski Resort in an effort to block the ski area expansion and its deleterious effects on lynx habitat.
The ski area recovered and expanded, despite an estimated $24 million worth of damage. Direct environmental action, however, took a hit as federal law enforcement (and corporate interests) began throwing around the term โeco-terrorist,โ the connotations of which became far more grim after 9/11 3. The FBI then declared monkeywrenching to be one of theย nationโs leading domestic terror threats, surpassing even right-wing militia groups, despite the fact that the saboteurs only damage property and make a point of not harming humans or other living beings.
This put quite a damper on environmental direct action, since even pulling up a few survey stakes might get you labeled a terrorist and tossed in the clink โ or even Guantanamo Bay โ for years. Monkeywrenching, however, did not die. In 2016, for example, a crew of โValve Turnersโ managed to shut down several major oil pipelines in an attempt to slow fossil fuel burning and bring attention to the climate crisis (Michelle Nijhuis wrote a terrific piece on this in 2018). Otherwise there have been very few high-profile direct-action eco-sabotage cases, at least from what I can gather.
***
Monkeywrenching is on my mind not because itโs MWGโs half-century birthday or even because the White House, Congress, and the courts have been occupied by authoritarians, oligarchs, and their enablers, who value profit over everything else, especially the environment. Iโve actually been pondering it for several months, since long before Trump was elected.
A couple of things sparked this line of thought. First, it seems as if thereโs a bit of a literary revival of monkeywrenching. Itโs one of the methods employed by climate activists in Stephen Markeyโs excellent novel The Deluge. And it is the main theme of the film, How to Blow Up a Pipeline, which is a fictional rendering of Andreas Malmโs non-fiction treatise of the same name.
I began to write that these books and films are Monkey Wrench Gangs for the global warming age. But I donโt think thatโs quite right. The tone of the newer book and film is far different โ more urgent and somber โ than MWG or a Good Day to Die. And the motives of the protagonists are also more serious and deep, if you will. Pipelineโs characters, for example, mostly were direct victims of the fossil fuel industry, making their sabotage a form of self-defense, while the Delugeโs eco-saboteurs see themselves as warriors fighting for the planetโs very survival.
Itโs not surprising that eco-sabotage is experiencing a revival, even if itโs only fictional. The urgency of a warming climate is becoming acute, and yet the powers that be are diddling their thumbs. More and more people are frustrated and fed up with the lugubrious process of fighting climate change and environmental destruction in legal and legitimate ways. Even when the Democrats control the executive and legislative branches of the federal government, they rarely are able to take more than a half-step forward policy-wise, only to see their incremental progress obliterated by Trump, the MAGA-dominated Congress, and a runaway Supreme Court within weeks after taking power.
Now the Trump administration is even precluding public input for major mines, oil and gas drilling, and other developments on public lands, all in the name of a bogus โenergy emergency.โ They are literally blocking the publicโs legal avenues for making a difference, leaving concerned citizens with little choice but to take more direct action.
What is surprising to me is that a new wave of eco-sabotage has not made it from the screen and page to real life. 4ย Instead, climate activists areย throwing soup, paint, and other stuff at prominent artworks, hoping to bring attention to their cause. They are gluing themselves to the road and disrupting bicycle races, from theย World Championshipsย in Scotland to theย Tour de France, and Just Stop Oil even defaced Charles Darwinโs graves.
The activists and their supporters claim that these actions raise public awareness. That may be so, but awareness of what, exactly? How does disrupting a bike race, of all things, reduce fossil fuel combustion? How does defacing a painting โ even if only โsymbolicallyโ โ relate to environmental destruction? And whatโs with targeting Darwinโs grave? While I appreciate the zeal, I canโt help but wonder: If youโre going to vandalize something and risk jail time, why not do something that makes a direct and immediate difference โ even if only temporarily?
When the narrator in a Good Day to Die decides to get rid of the dam in Idaho, he is hit with a moment of moral clarity. I suspect it has to do with the directness of his planned action. He sees a problem, a fish-harming dam, and sets about to solve it in the most logical and direct way possible: blowing it up โ preferably without harming anybody. Heโs not looking to send a message, to make a symbolic gesture, or raise awareness. Heโs just trying to fix something thatโs wrong, not unlike burning an atrocious billboard or surreptitiously removing some survey stakes from a remote area or destroying a pipeline that defiles the land and carries planet-killing fossil fuels.
Donโt get me wrong. Iโm not suggesting that anyone go out and do anything illegal. Iโm just saying that when a personโs home โ whether thatโs a house, a community, a Place, or the entire planet โ comes under attack, it shouldnโt be surprising that they would go to extreme lengths to defend it.
Four Corners Power Plant. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.
For the last several years, the coal industry in the Western U.S. has been suffering from what I call the Big Breakdown โ as opposed to the Big Buildup of the 1960s and 1970s, when coal power plants and mines popped up all over the Colorado Plateau and beyond. Now, it appears that the proliferation of energy-intensive data centers is stalling the Breakdown, maybe even reversing it. Last week, Arizona Public Service announced it would keep the Four Corners coal plant in northwestern New Mexico running โ and polluting โ for another seven years beyond its scheduled 2031 retirement.
The coal-burning extension is part of the stateโs largest utilityโs plan to shift its climate goal from becoming zero carbon by 2050 to carbon neutral. While that sounds like a mere semantic switch, its on-the-ground effects will be significant. Along with the coal plant news, APS and the stateโs other largest utilities are going in on a new natural gas pipeline from the Permian Basin so it can increase fossil fuel generation rather than pivoting entirely to solar, wind, battery energy storage, and other carbon-free sources.
APS officials say the shift is necessary to meet growing power demand. While population growth and increasingly hot temperatures play a role in the ever-larger load on the grid, the crop of new energy-intensive data centers sprouting in the Phoenix area is a principle driver. The utility is also likely reacting to the Trump administrationโs fondness for fossil fuels and disdain for renewables.
The Four Corners plant and its accompanying Navajo Mine were constructed about 15 miles west of Farmington in the early 1960s by a consortium of utilities led by APS and Utah Construction & Mining Co, a subsidiary of Kennecott, a global mining firm. It was the flagship of a much larger fleet that would include the San Juan, Navajo, Mojave, Cholla, Coronado, and Escalante plants. Mojave was shuttered in 2005, with the other big plants closing down more recently (Coronado will be converted to natural gas). That leaves just Four Corners, which was supposed to be shuttered in 2031, or even sooner, if Public Service Company of New Mexico were able to get out of its 13% stake before then.
But over the last few years, utilities have been second-guessing plans to decommission the aging behemoths as data centers have sprouted across the region, significantly increasing demand on the power grid. Over the last week, both Salt River Project and APS have set new peak power demand records as both residents and data centers crank up the coolers to offset extreme heat. Demand is projected to grow significantly over the next decade, mostly due to new data centers. Itโs the Big Buildup all over again, only this time itโs high-tech server farms sprouting all over the place, with power generating sources struggling to keep up.
1 *I didnโt hear this story until after my father died, so this is all second-hand and the details may be a bit off.
2 I wonโt tell you what happens. If you read the book, you should be warned that reviewers of the time sneered at it for being too macho, too crude, having too much drug and alcohol use, โadolescent,โ and so forth. Maybe thatโs all true, but I liked it the first time I read it decades ago, and I still liked it when I read it again recently.
3 * The term was apparently coined in the 1980s by Ron Arnold, the founder of the anti-environment Wise Use Movement.
4**ย Right-wing nationalist attacks on the power grid are not, in my mind, a form of monkeywrenching. Their goal is to disrupt and harm society, including humans, not to stop environmental damage or even make a political protest.
The 24-Month Study projects future Colorado River system conditions using single-trace hydrologic scenarios simulated with the Colorado River Mid-term Modeling System (CRMMS) in 24-Month Study Mode. The Most Probable and Probable Minimum 24-Month Studies are released monthly, typically by the 15th day of the month. The Probable Maximum 24-Month Study is released alongside other 24-Month Studies in January, April, August, and October.
Initial Conditions: The 24-Month Study is initialized with previous end-of-month reservoir elevations.ย
Hydrology: In the Upper Basin, the first year of the Most Probable inflow trace is based on the 50thย percentile of Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) forecasts and the second year is based on the 50thย percentile of historical flows. To represent dry and wet future conditions, the Minimum Probable and Maximum Probable traces use the 10thย and 90thforecast percentiles in the first year and the 25thย and 75thย percentiles of historical flows in the second year, respectively. The Lower Basin inflows are based only on historical intervening flows that align with the Upper Basin percentiles.ย
Water Demand: Upper Basin demands are estimated and incorporated in the unregulated inflow forecasts provided by the CBRFC; Lower Basin demands are developed in coordination with the Lower Basin States and Mexico.ย
Policy: 2007 Interim Guidelines, 2024 Supplement to the 2007 Interim Guidelines, Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan, and Minute 323 are modeled reflecting Colorado Riverย policies. For modeling purposes, simulated years beyond 2026 assume a continuation of the 2007 Interim Guidelines including the 2024 Supplement to the 2007 Interim Guidelines (no additional SEIS conservation is assumed to occur after 2026), the 2019 Colorado River Basin Drought Contingency Plans, and Minute 323 including the Binational Water Scarcity Contingency Plan. With the exception of certain provisions related to ICS recovery and Upper Basin demand management, operations under these agreements are in effect through 2026. Reclamation initiated the process to develop operations for post-2026 in June 2023, and the modeling assumptions described here are subject to change.
Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead.
For more detailed information about the approach to the 24-Month Study modeling, see the CRMMS 24-Month Study Modepage. All modeling assumptions and projections are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. Please refer to this discussion of uncertainty for more information.
Projections
The latest 24-Month Study reports for each study can be found at the links below:
WASHINGTONโฏโ The Bureau of Reclamation released the August 2025 24-Month Study, reaffirming impacts of unprecedented drought in the Colorado River Basin and pressing the need for robust and forward-thinking guidelines for the future. The study provides an outlook on hydrologic conditions and projected operations for Colorado River reservoirs over the next two years and sets the 2026 operating conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead.
โThis underscores the importance of immediate action to secure the future of the Colorado River,โ said Reclamationโs Acting Commissioner David Palumbo. โWe must develop new, sustainable operating guidelines that are robust enough to withstand ongoing drought and poor runoff conditions to ensure water security for more than 40 million people who rely on this vital resource.โ
Lake Powellโs elevation on Jan. 1, 2026, is projected to be 3,538.47 feetโapproximately 162 feet below full pool and 48 feet above minimum power pool. This places the reservoir in the Mid-Elevation Release Tier, with a planned release of 7.48 million acre-feet of water for water year 2026, October 1, 2025, through September 30, 2026. If hydrologic conditions worsen, the water year release volume may be reduced in accordance with the 2024 Record of Decision for the Supplement to the 2007 Interim Guidelines.
Lake Mead is projected to stay in a Level 1 Shortage Condition, with an expected elevation of 1,055.88 feetโ20 feet below the Lower Basin shortage determination trigger. This condition necessitates significant water reductions as indicated by the 2007 Interim Guidelines and the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan in the United States and Minute 323 and the Binational Water Scarcity Contingency Plan in Mexico. This calls for Arizona to contribute 512,000 acre-feet, about 18% of its annual apportionment, Nevada to contribute 21,000 acre-feet or 7%of its annual apportionment, and Mexico to contribute 80,000 acre-feet or 5% of its annual allotment.
Current guidelinesโincluding the 2007 Interim Guidelines, 2019 Drought Contingency Plans, and international agreements Minutes 323 and 330โare all set to expire at the end of 2026, leaving a critical void that must be filled with comprehensive strategies that address current and future challenges.
โAs the basin prepares for the transition to post-2026 operating guidelines, the urgency for the seven Colorado River Basin states to reach a consensus agreement has never been clearer. We cannot afford to delay,โ said Department of the Interiorโs Acting Assistant Secretary for Water and Science Scott Cameron. โThe health of the Colorado River system and the livelihoods that depend on it are relying on our ability to collaborate effectively and craft forward-thinking solutions that prioritize conservation, efficiency, and resilience.โ
In June, Cameron called on the seven Colorado River Basin states to submit the details of a preliminary operations agreement by mid-November and share a final seven state agreement on that proposal by mid-February 2026, with the goal of reaching a final decision next summer to begin implementation in the 2027 operating year.
In the meantime, near-term operating guidelines approved last year provide additional strategies to reduce the risk of reaching critical elevations at Lake Powell and Lake Mead. These short-term tools, available through 2026, include conserving 3 million acre-feet or more of water in the Lower Basin and the potential to reduce release from Lake Powell. Under the Drought Contingency Plan, Upper Basin drought response operations could also include sending additional water to Lake Powell from upstream reservoirs.
โThese short-term tools will only help us for so long,โ Cameron emphasized. โThe next set of guidelines need to be in place. We remain committed to this effort and will continue to invest in infrastructure improvements and system water reuse and conservation efforts as we move forward toward viable solutions.โ
The Department and Reclamation continue meeting regularly with the basin states and Tribal Nations to collaborate on the Post-2026 Operating Guidelines as part of their continued commitment to ensuring water security and promoting long-term sustainability in the Colorado River Basin. For more information on the August 2025 24-Month Study, visit https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/riverops/24ms-projections.html.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
From email from Western Resource Advocates (John Berggren):
August 15, 2025
Western Resource Advocates released the following statement in response to the August 24-Month Study by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which determines reservoir operations and Lower Basin shortages for the coming Water Year, and projects future conditions in the Colorado River system for the next two years.
“This study confirms what weโve known for decades: the Colorado River is overallocated with demands outpacing supplies. We face continued shortages, emergency measures, and the limits of our current agreements, all which are set to expire in the next 12 months. It further sounds the alarm that the Colorado River is drying out and Western states need to act now to protect this vital waterway and its tributaries.”
– John Berggren, Ph.D.
The Colorado River provides drinking water for one in ten Americans and after years of persistent drought, declining snowpack, and rising temperatures, the river continues to face a historic and growing imbalance where demand overwhelms available supply. It is operating under extreme stress and at the edge of a critical management transition.
โThis is not just a crisis. Itโs also a call to action to use remaining time wisely to replace our current reactive, emergency-based management framework with new, long-term solutions. We canโt litigate our way out โ we must collaborate forward. A negotiated agreement among all the Colorado River sovereigns and stakeholders will be more comprehensive, more adaptable, and more responsive to our communities throughout the Basin.โ
Change is the only constant on the Colorado River. Its water carved the Grand Canyon, its flows fluctuate seasonally, its path is altered by a network of dams and pipelines, and its water is dwindling as climate change dries out the West. The River is a dynamic and living system with real limits, yet early agreements treated it like a simple water delivery pipeline.
“Going forward, itโs essential for all water stakeholders and decision makers to take an honest look at the Basinโs hydrology and accelerate coming together around a set of proactive solutions to keep the river healthy.ย Decisions made in the coming months will determine whether we can meet the needs of our communities and protect the river for future generations and for the fish, wildlife, and recreationists that depend on it. The time to lead is now.”
Thank you for fighting climate change in the West with us.
Click the link to read the article on the InkStain website (John Fleck, Anne Castle, Eric Kuhn, Jack Schmidt, Kathryn Sorensen, and Katherine Tara):
As we await Fridayโs (Aug. 15, 2025) release of the Bureau of Reclamationโs Colorado River 24-Month Study, we need to remember a painful lesson of the last five years of crisis management: whatever you see in Reclamationโs report of the โMost Probableโ reservoir levels for the next two years, we must prepare for things to be much worse.
A year ago, Reclamationโs โMost Probableโ forecast told us to expect Lake Powell to hold 10.36 million acre feet of water at the end of July 2025, with a surface elevation 3,593 feet above sea level. Actual storage in Powell at the end of July was 7.46 maf, 2.9 million acre feet less, and the reservoir is 38 feet lower, than the โMost Probableโ forecast.
Four years ago, one of us (Eric Kuhn) wrote this, which is helpful in understanding what is happening:
“The problem: the assumptions underlying the study do not fully capture the climate-change driven aridification of the Colorado River Basin.”
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
In 2022, a Utah State Center for Colorado River Studies team led by Jian Wang (including one of us, Schmidt) took this on in more technical detail โ Evaluating the Accuracy of Reclamationโs 24-Month Study of Lake Powell Projections. The finding provided technical support for an intuition water managers already had: the 24-Month Study has an optimistic bias.
Produced monthly, Reclamationโs 24-Month Study includes three scenarios: Most Probable, Minimum Probable, and Maximum Probable. The Study includes 18 pages of data and forecasts for twelve Colorado River system reservoirs, from Fontenelle and Flaming Gorge in the north to Mohave and Havasu in the south, projecting things like elevation, storage, inflows, releases, evaporation, and hydropower production each month for the next two years.
“Projections for reservoir elevations during the next few months are based on predictions of reservoir inflow using a widely accepted watershed hydrologic model run by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. The input data for that model are observed snowpack in the watershed, soil moisture, and anticipated precipitation and temperature. Projections for reservoir elevations beyond the immediately proximate winter, a year or more in the future (โsecond year projectionsโ), are based on statistical probabilities calculated using analyses of past inflows during a 30-year reference period.”
The resulting model runs represent a wide range of uncertainties, which are captured in three resulting scenarios:
Most Probable: the middle of the range
Maximum Probable: the 90th percentile scenario, meaning that 10% of the model runs predict even wetter hydrology and 90% predict drier.
Minimum Probable: the 10th percentile scenario, meaning that 10% of the model runs predict even drier hydrology and 90% predict wetter.
The problem, implicit in the argument Milly et al. made nearly two decades ago, is that a 30-year reference period is no longer a reliable indicator of what we should expect in the future. It represents a river we no longer have. This is not to suggest any bias or partiality on the part of Reclamation, but merely that the algorithms and modeling used to produce the 24-Month Study have proven in recent years to be skewed more toward the the past than the true-to-life. Our response needs to reflect that reality.
Because of the changing conditions in the Colorado River Basin, the Minimum Probable scenario has become the most valuable in providing a reliable indicator of the future. Actual flows and reservoir levels have been tracking the minimum probable forecast since March of this year. As we enter the fall of 2025, with the weak summer monsoon for most of the Upper Basin coupled with weak La Niรฑa conditions persisting through the fall and early winter, and NOAAโs seasonal outlook pointing to a warmer and drier than average fall, itโs a good bet that this trend will continue at least through mid-winter. The Basin should be prepared for minimum probable conditions, with a clear possibility that actual conditions could be worse than the 10th percentile scenario. The basin community needs to be ready to respond with the necessary water use reductions now to protect the Colorado River system on which we all depend.
Pine River Marina at Navajo Reservoir. Photo credit: Reclamation
From email from Reclamation (Conor Felletter):
August 15, 2025
The Bureau of Reclamation has scheduled an increase in the release from Navajo Dam to 900 cubic feet per second (cfs) from the current release of 850 cfs for Saturday, August 16, at 4:00 AM.
Releases are made for the authorized purposes of the Navajo Unit, and to attempt to maintain a target base flow through the endangered fish critical habitat reach of the San Juan River (Farmington to Lake Powell). The San Juan River Basin Recovery Implementation Program recommends a target base flow of between 500 cfs and 1,000 cfs through the critical habitat area. The target base flow is calculated as the weekly average of gaged flows throughout the critical habitat area from Farmington to Lake Powell.
This scheduled release change is subject to changes in river flows and weather conditions. If you have any questions, please contact Conor Felletter (cfelletter@usbr.gov or 970-637-1985), or visit Reclamationโs Navajo Dam website athttps://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.html
Reclamation conducts Public Operations Meetings three times per year to gather input for determining upcoming operations for Navajo Reservoir. Input from individuals, organizations, and agencies along with other factors such as weather, water rights, endangered species requirements, flood control, hydro power, recreation, fish and wildlife management, and reservoir levels, will be considered in the development of these reservoir operation plans. In addition, the meetings are used to coordinate activities and exchange information among agencies, water users, and other interested parties concerning the San Juan River and Navajo Reservoir. The next meeting will be held Tuesday, August 19th at 1:00 PM. This meeting is open to the public with hybrid options, in person at the Civic Center in Farmington, NM (200 W Arrington St, Farmington, NM 87401, Rooms 4&5) and virtual using Microsoft Teams. Register for the webinar at this link
Trail building by the Civilian Conservation Corps on Notch Mountain, then a popular destination for its view of the Mount of the Holy Cross and the throngs of religious pilgrims who were drawn to the site in the early days of the Holy Cross National Forest, now part of the White River National Forest. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Editorโs note: This story is the third of a three-part series examining the notion of public lands, both in the United States and in our region. Part one looked at the earliest expressions of the commons in territories that would become the United States. Parts two and three look at the history and legacy of what is now the White River National Forest.
The hunger for land was an insatiable draw to legions of the dispossessed who were on the march across America eager for land ownership. The Utes were simply in the way of an advance that could not or would not be stopped. The tragic story of these first inhabitants of the White River National Forest (WRNF) played out to a violent end amid a rush for land and resources in the Colorado Rockies that had 5,000 people per day pouring into the state by the 1870s.
Native inhabitants had been hunting and gathering here for more than 10,000 years. The Utes โ the โPeople of the Shining Mountains,โ according to the title of a book by Charles Marsh โ ruled a vast and rugged empire of about 225,000 square miles that stretched from the Central Rockies west into Utah and Nevada, south into New Mexico and east onto the Great Plains where they hunted buffalo on horseback. The Utes were among the first Native Americans to acquire the horse from Spanish stock that, it was assumed, had been lost. Horses were key to Ute identity, and equestrian skills were a mark of manhood that provided rapid mobility and warrior status.
White River Ute warrior Gray Eagle and his young bride Honey Dew of the Mountains, on horseback on the western slope of the Wasatch Range in Utah, then roaming their vast territory west of the White River before the White River Agency was established. Circa 1871-1875. CREDIT: DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
Broken treaties and war
The advance of Europeans into Ute lands set up a tension that grew with every treaty violation and every trespass. As their domain was carved away, the U.S. government naively assumed the Utes could be transitioned from nomadic hunter-gatherers and cordoned off as sedentary farmers. Indian agents were hired to effect this transition, which, in the long run, proved futile and disastrous. There was no reasonable answer to โthe Ute problem,โ which was the terminology used by Frederick Pitkin, Coloradoโs second governor from 1879-82, to refer to the cultural impasse.
The ensuing drama escalated at the White River Agency near todayโs Meeker in 1879 when Indian agent Nathan Meeker, a naive and misguided minister, attempted to force the Utesโ compliance to โwhite manโs waysโ by denying them their horses, rationing allotments and plowing over their racetrack to plant crops. Meeker and others believed that the Utes were in need of redemption for their spiritual welfare. The Utes, who found spiritual depth in the natural world around them, believed otherwise and clung to their sacred traditions.
The conflict boiled over in the late summer of 1879 when Meeker had a violent altercation with a Ute sub chief. The frightened Meeker sent for the U.S. Army, which advanced from Wyoming and was met by a strong Ute force. When the detachment of 190 troops crossed into Ute territory on Sept. 29, shots rang out, kicking off a grueling six-day battle of attrition that saw 17 U.S. soldiers killed and wounded 44, while the Utes saw 24 killed, in what became known as the Battle of Milk Creek. As the battle raged 17 miles away, Utes also attacked the White River Agency, killing Meeker, 10 men under his employ, and kidnapped women and children, including Meekerโs wife and daughter.
All captives were later released from a Ute camp on Grand Mesa. But the violent outbreak provided ample pretext for the whites to pursue a campaign of ethnic cleansing. In 1881, Pitkin issued an edict stating that the Utes would either be removed to reservations in Utah and southern Colorado or exterminated. Many were marched out of their homelands near the Uncompahgre River at gunpoint, while remaining bands roamed northwest Colorado until an 1887 military campaign known as the Colorow War.
With that Pitkin proclamation, 12 million acres of western Colorado opened for settlement. The White River Timberland Reserve was later created on these former Ute lands, placing them under federal administration. The Utes were compensated about $22 per capita in a settlement for all that they were forced to surrender. However, draws from those payments were taken from Ute hands to fund pensions paid to families of soldiers and agency staff killed during the violence surrounding the Meeker incidents. So ended the empire of the Utes.
Milk Creek Battlefield Park, 18 miles northeast of Meeker, Colorado. Battle of Milk Creek, Sept. 29 through Oct.5, 1879, between the Utes and the U.S. troops, which triggered the Meeker incident. The battle persisted with the Utes surrounding the wagon-circled troops until military reinforcements arrived. Most sources tally 17 whites killed and 44 wounded, along with 24 Utes killed and unknown numbers wounded, while 127 horses and 183 mules of the U.S. troopers died. By Jeffrey Beall – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=70937831
Exploitation, waste and destruction
โOne of the most pressing problems facing Colorado in the 1880s and 1890s,โ wrote Justine Irwin, author of the 1990 manuscript โWhite River National Forest: A Centennial History,โ โwas the prevalent exploitation of its natural resources by westward moving pioneers โฆ [who] accepted the waste and destruction that followed as a small price to pay for their dream of prosperity.โ
The prevailing attitude of the day regarded โwildernessโ as a wasteland ripe for the biblical mandate in the Book of Genesis: โIncrease, multiply, replenish the earth and subdue it.โ These newcomers to western Colorado, wrote Irwin, viewed the land with โutilitarian spectacles,โ through which โtrees became lumber, prairies became farms, and canyons became the sites of hydroelectric dams.โ
A dramatic example of the settlersโ creed was the extermination of the native elk herd as meat hunters ignored sustainable yields and fecklessly shot and killed all the native elk in the region, selling their harvest to railroad builders and mine workers. So-called โmarket huntingโ flourished only as long as the herds lasted, and the 6,000 to 8,000 elk estimated to have been in the WRNF region in 1879 were soon extirpated. Hunters took only the hindquarters of the animals, leaving the rest as waste. The selling price for meat was 7 cents a pound for deer, 9 cents for elk, 10 cents for bighorn sheep and bear, and 50 cents for grouse.
Meanwhile, the General Land Office, a real estate branch of the Department of Interior, was busy selling off the commons at $1.25 per acre. The Homestead Act gave land away to qualifying settlers in 160-acre allotments for each adult member of a family. Large families could acquire considerable acreage of public lands. The Timber Culture Act of 1873, the General Mining Act of 1872 and the Railroad Act of 1862 gave away huge swaths of the public domain, all to encourage monetizing the commons and capitalizing on the riches of the continental empire of the United States.
โRanchers, loggers and others invaded railroad lands taking what they wished and giving no thought to the long-range future of the region,โ wrote Irwin, who describes a ruthless lawlessness that discouraged any interference in this land-based free-for-all. But there was change in the air as lawmakers recognized that there were limits to the nationโs natural resources. The giveaways continued, but national parks and designated forests were proposed and gradually established to preserve legacy Western landscapes for future generations in a first glimmer of conservation. The philosophy behind this growing movement was shared by Henry David Thoreau, George Catlin, John James Audubon, John Muir and an influential cadre of preservationists who began to win over advocates in Washington, D.C. The conservation ethic is summed up by author Rod Nash in his โWilderness and the American Mindโ (1967), in which he wrote, โDoesnโt the present owe the future a chance to know the past?โ
Environmental concerns for preserving intact ecosystems to protect valuable and irreplaceable watersheds played a utilitarian role in conservation efforts on Western lands. Forestry management entered the lexicon of policymakers when, in 1875, Section 6 of the Colorado Constitution called for โPreservation of Forests: The General Assembly shall enact laws in order to prevent the destruction of, and to keep in good preservation, the forests upon the lands of the state.โ
Citizen involvement through civic forestry associations amplified the call to protect national assets and save something for the future. In 1889, a timber reserve was called for on the Western Slope of Colorado to safeguard against wildfires, overgrazing and irresponsible timber harvests โ all of which were decimating irreplaceable landscapes. A similar approach to nature aesthetics was winning hearts and minds for preserving the inspiring vistas that were beginning to sensitize America to the natural treasures of which it had taken possession.
In 1891, a groundswell of support led President Benjamin Harrison to enact the General Revision Act, a sweeping mandate to protect Western lands that led Harrison to issue a proclamation establishing the White River Plateau Timber Land Reserve, the first binding federal protection for a large expanse of central and northwest Colorado and the second of its scale and scope in the United States, after a forest reserve designated near Yellowstone National Park. Supporters called it a great victory, but detractors โ of which there were many โ impugned the initiative as a โtakingโ of what they considered the entitlement of free land.
The account of a boasting pioneer quoted in โWhite River National Forest: A Centennial Historyโ and who had unconscionably plundered the public domain is a grim tale of misuse without supervision and reasonable limits of what was perceived as an infinite cornucopia: โIn the summer of โ89, I killed about 700 deer and pulled the hides off, just for the hides. That fall, I got 43 bear near Lost Park. I shipped the hides to Chicago and they netted me clear $1.50 apiece. Everybody killed game for the hides and made money that way. Iโll tell you a fact: In โ89 I could ride up anywhere and there would be 40 to 50 bucks lying in one bunch. You could ride up to within a few feet of them. I killed 23 bucks in one day and jerked the hides off.โ
Such carnage became repugnant to many and shameful to a growing number of nature lovers who advocated protective legislation such as the Forest Management Act of 1897 that granted the secretary of the interior power to regulate โoccupancy and useโ of federal lands. Implementation was another thing as new and often-inexperienced forest rangers came up against hardened libertarians who were armed and militant โ namely, loggers and ranchers. Threats against rangers, who lacked policing power, were said to โmake your eyes swell shut and your nose bleed,โ according to โA Centennial History.โ
โA ranger must be able to take care of himself and his horses under very trying conditions; build trails and cabins; ride all day and all night; pack, shoot and fight without losing his head. All this requires a very rigorous constitution,โ read one early Forest Service job posting. A group of White River National Forest rangers are shown here at a 1921 meeting. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Forest rangers bring law to the wilderness
According to Irwinโs manuscript, โthe forest ranger had to become not only a conservationist, a lands manager, a grazing expert, a timber expert, a watershed manager, a wildlife protector and jack-of-all-trades, he also had to become an expert in public relations with a keen understanding of community and national politics.โ Few could match up to these requirements without rigorous training and a deep commitment to the role.
In 1898, Charles W. Ramer of Fort Collins was appointed the first supervisor of the White River Plateau Timber Land Reserve, headquartered in Meeker. Jack Dunn, Harry Gibler and Solon Ackley were the first rangers hired to patrol the reserve, which was divided into nine districts. The rangers were assigned to observe that loggers and ranchers kept to their assigned boundaries, to ensure that game regulations were followed and to put out brush fires.
These early rangers faced tremendous personal risks from unruly forest users, as described in an account by ranger William Kreutzer, who faced repeated threats from his efforts to enforce regulations. One night in the early 1900s, wrote Irwin, โas he was returning to his camp from a day patrolling, three men sprang suddenly from the aspen thickets and attacked him. Almost instantly he was struck on the head with something that rendered him unconscious. When he recovered, many hours later, he was lying beside the road, his head ached, his nose was bruised.โ
Early forest rangers faced personal risks from unruly forest users. One account by ranger William Kreutzer, shown here, described facing beatings and attempted shootings from his efforts to enforce regulations.
Another incident from Irwinโs manuscript revealed that Kreutzer boldly confiscated tools from a group of timber cutters felling trees inside the protected reserve. โOne day he was riding a trail and a bullet whizzed by close to his head. He rolled from his saddle and sought shelter behind a large tree. Four more bullets struck near him. The boom that followed each shot told him they had come from a large rifle fired from a spot some distance away. He had only his six-shooter, but ascertaining as best he could the spot whence the shots came, he elevated the barrel of his gun and fired every cartridge. The shots of his assailant ceased. He decided that someone had just tried to scare him a bit.โ
Trophy hunters flocked to hunt in the White River Reserve, the most prestigious of whom was President Theodore Roosevelt whose special train passed through Glenwood Springs in 1901. The Roosevelt party hunted the Danforth Hills near Meeker, killing 14 mountain lions. Although Roosevelt championed conservation of wild lands, he withdrew substantial acreage from the reserve on the advice of his chief forester, Gifford Pinchot, in order to appease complaints from forest users of โlocking up the land.โ
Meanwhile, posted notices advertised the following: โMen Wanted!! A ranger must be able to take care of himself and his horses under very trying conditions; build trails and cabins; ride all day and all night; pack, shoot and fight without losing his head. All this requires a very rigorous constitution. It means the hardest kind of physical work from beginning to end. It is not a job for those seeking health or light outdoor work. Invalids need not apply.โ
Requirements were incredibly demanding, but men equal to the challenge answered the call and were hired only after completing a grueling exam that included saddling a horse, riding a required distance, packing a horse or mule with tools and camping gear, pacing the pack animal over a designated trail, taking bearings with survey tools and more. The annual salary for the few who were able to pass the test was $900 to $1,500, but starting at a lower figure.
The staunchest objectors to enforcement were cattlemen whose livelihood required substantial range. Among them was Roaring Fork Valley rancher Fred Light, who protested the charging of range fees for grazing his stock. Lightโs story traces a reluctant yet gradual progression from vehement protests to acceptance of the principles of forest management.
Trophy hunters around the turn of the 20th century flocked to the newly created White River Reserve, the most prestigious of whom was President Theodore Roosevelt whose special train passed through Glenwood Springs in 1901. The Roosevelt party hunted the Danforth Hills near Meeker, killing 14 mountain lions. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Light of the Roaring Fork
Fred Light (1856-1931) came to the Roaring Fork Valley in 1880. He prospected before locating a homestead on East Sopris Creek where he cut and sold hay in Aspen to feed the many teams required for mining and camp life. Eventually, Light proved up on his land, expanded his operation, and raised cattle and horses. In 1885, he was elected to the Colorado legislature and served two terms. He was a prominent, well-respected rancher who had political savvy โ and clout.
โWe want no forest reserves,โ Light announced to cheers and applause at a meeting of the Stockmenโs Association in 1907. โIf we must have reserves, we want no grazing tax; if we must have reserves and the tax, the cattlemen claim the privilege of saying who will be placed in charge of the reserves.โ
Light gained notoriety when, that same year, he allowed his cattle to drift into the newly formed White River Forest Reserve where grazing was prohibited. Light, like many early ranchers, was resistant to government control over a resource that he and many ranchers took possession of as an entitlement by simply being there first and assuming a right of ownership.
Light was cited, which started a grazing-trespass case with the U.S. Department of Forestry and which eventually reached the Supreme Court. Light lost his case, but he had made a bold statement of rugged individualism that animated the spirit and the myth upon which much of the American West was settled. The decision against him, however, verified the governmentโs legitimacy in charging grazing fees and regulating uses on reserve land. Light accepted the decision and thereafter paid the appropriate fees. He also agreed to the rules and regulations, and he even came to endorse them as he witnessed how competing forest users were beginning to negatively impact the land.
Lightโs story is compelling, but there was a far more sensational and dire event in his colorful life in the Roaring Fork Valley that describes a sad, personal anecdote. The Aspen-Democrat Times reported a dramatic event: An electrical storm, proclaimed โthe worst in the history of this locality,โ killed one person and wounded others in the Capitol Creek area.
According to the July 14, 1909, news story, โEarly last evening an electrical storm set in which surpassed in severity any before experienced in this locality and brought disaster to the household of Hon. Fred Light of Capitol Creek, one of the most prominent and highly respected families of Pitkin County.โ That evening, a bolt of lightning struck a potato cultivator outside the home, jumped to the gable on the homeโs roof and ran down to the basement, where Lightโs five children were packing meat. Lightโs son Ray, 18, was killed with four others rendered unconscious.
Lightโs conversion to the ways of the forest was a sign of progress, but, unfortunately, it did nothing to ameliorate an even more vitriolic conflict. A range war erupted in the early 1900s that pitted cattlemen and sheepherders against one another in a blood feud that resulted in thousands of sheep being slaughtered and a number of men being beaten and killed. The Western tradition of โfirst in time, first in rightโ gave cattlemen the wherewithal to declare the range existed for cattle only. Sheepherders were not forbidden by law or permit, but they took their lives in their hands if they violated the cattlemenโs self-imposed privilege.
Chapman Dam in the Fryingpan River basin, shown here in 1940, was a Great Depression-era Civilian Conservation Corps project. CREDIT: WWW.WATERARCHIVES.ORG
Range wars
While the Glenwood Post became amenable to regulations in the White River Reserve by acknowledging the advantages of range protection, increased pasturage and peaceable possession for cattlemen, the advent of sheepherders lit the fuse of a conflict that blew up repeatedly. Irwin describes the George Woolley Sheep Massacre in Routt County when, in 1911, several hundred sheep were โrimrockedโ in a stampede that drove them off a cliff. In 1913, many sheep were killed by strychnine poisoning. Finally, a full-on range battle ensued in 1913 in the Battle of Yellowjacket Pass, between Craig and Meeker, when warring sheepherders and cattlemen fired upon one another, necessitating the calling out of the Colorado State Militia.
Changes in the cattle industry โ such as growing domestic hay for winter feed and breeding more efficient strands of range cattle โ increased weight gain and reduced the desperate need for vast grazing acreage. Forest rangers also played a part as peacemakers and mediators who headed off range feuds. They also took on rapidly expanding responsibilities to regulate timber cutting and supervise road-building, water diversions, irrigation, reforestation, erosion control, trail-building, sign-postage, wild game and fish management, and many other tasks. When elk were reintroduced to the forest in 1912 โ Fryingpan Valley rancher Nelson Downey reportedly killed the last bull elk of the original herd in 1895 โ rangers monitored the habitat and protected the imported elk from over-hunting.
As a more peaceful era settled on the reserve (renamed the White River Forest Reserve in 1902 by Roosevelt), a new use with rapidly growing popularity became evident as people came to the reserve, not to graze animals or cut timber, but to simply enjoy the sublime natural beauty that is in such profusion here. Enter recreation and a new identity for the public commons.
A U.S. Forest Service photo dated between 1910 and 1930 shows a man with a fishing pole near a tent at Snowmass Lake, with Snowmass Peak in the distance covered with snow. Recreation grew in popularity throughout the early 20th century, creating new priorities for the Forest Service. CREDIT: DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
For the love of nature
Pinchot, the chief forester, considered recreation to be only an โincidental useโ until 1905, when hotels and sanitariums were introduced to the reserve for popular enjoyment and therapeutic healing. Gradually, roads and trails became part of the White River National Forest (Congress renamed it so in 1907) with the mandate to include all users. This brought commercial use into local cultural and economic equations and began a shift of management priorities.
An annual report on the forest in 1913 stated that natural resources would now be managed to reduce impacts from grazing and logging in order to โpreserve the natural beauty of the location unmarred for the enjoyment of the public.โ A potentially lucrative recreation economy spurred a tangential threat of privatizing public lands for commercial gain as stated in a letter to the U.S. Forest Service from the Denver Chamber of Commerce in 1913: โWe deny that it is right or advisable for the federal government to retain title to and lease the public lands for any purpose whatsoever.โ
The Forest Service was not alone in wariness of privatizing the commons for private development. In a major turnabout from only a decade before, Colorado stock growers shared the alarm: โWe earnestly object to any action by Congress abolishing the national forests or transferring their control or administration from the national government, and we must respectfully urge our congressmen to oppose any measures materially changing the present method regulating grazing on the national forests.โ
Even Light came to the forestโs defense as reflected in a report in the Glenwood Post in 1916: โFred Light was even ready to kiss and forgive the forestry officials. โฆ Mr. Light says he has learned to adapt himself to the forestry regulations and that the officials mean only good to the stockmen.โ
Grazing and logging continued as fundamental to the forest economy, especially during World War I when resources were in great demand, and yet the clamor for private resorts and vacation cabins began exerting influence. Trappers Lake was a sought-after locale for a proposed lodge and several hundred cabins that threatened to commercialize a scenic focal point on this White River National Forest wilderness enclave. In 1919, Arthur Carhart, landscape architect for the U.S. Forest Service, made a survey of the area and later advocated for a new concept in public-lands management โ wilderness โ especially after a meeting with assistant forester Aldo Leopold, Americaโs first conservation biologist.
โHow far shall the Forest Service carry or allow to be carried manmade improvement in scenic territories?โ wrote Carhart. โThe Forest Service is obliged to make the greatest return from the forests to the people of the nation that is possible.โ Carhart acknowledged forest yields in economic terms, but then urged for a higher concept of land use. โThere is a great wealth of recreational facilities and scenic values within the forests,โ he opined. โThere are portions of natural scenic beauty which are God-made and which of a right should be the property of all the people. There are a number of places with scenic values of such great worth that they are rightfully property of all people. They should be preserved for all time for the people of the nation and the world.โ
With that statement, Carhart leaped beyond the utility of conversation via Pinchot into the notion of preservation along the aesthetic and spiritual lines of Muir and Leopold. Carhart concluded: โIf Trappers Lake is in or anywhere near in the class of superlatives, it should not have any cabins or hotels intruding in the lake basin.โ Trappers Lake was preserved, and Carhartโs memo became a strong endorsement of the Wilderness Act of 1964.
The mess tent at a Civilian Conservation Corps work project camp at Maroon Lake,1935. The CCC put the impoverished and the unemployed to work on federal lands to build roads, trails and facilities. CREDIT: ASPEN HISTORICAL SOCIETY
A Civilian Conservation Corps work project camp at Ashcroft, 1938. The workers at the camp were improving Castle Creek Road and building and repairing bridges. CREDIT: ASPEN HISTORICAL SOCIETY
The scenic WRNF and the CCC
There is a mountain in the distant West That, sun-defying, in its deep ravines Displays a cross of snow upon its side.
William Henry Jackson wrote that verse after photographing Mount of the Holy Cross (at 14,009 feet) during his wilderness sojourn in 1874 with the Ferdinand Hayden geologic survey team. Located in Eagle County, this dramatic peak became a religious icon in the 1920s when pilgrimages were made to nearby Notch Mountain for the spectacular view. Visitors came from around the world to see the sight, having either to hike there or to travel by horseback. President Herbert Hoover declared the peak a national monument in 1929. In 1950, that status was rescinded after the pilgrim era had tapered down to almost nothing.
Still, the religious influence of this remarkable mountain left an imprint in the American psyche that, for growing numbers, infused scenic lands with sacred status. A tide had turned when Western lands attained a divine countenance that glowed with ethereal majesty and touched the hearts, minds and imaginations of those who saw them. This love of the land became a national balm when, in 1929, the stock market crashed and America entered the Great Depression.
As many Americans suffered economic privation, the forests of the West became sanctuaries, places to escape the grit and grime of depressed cities and breathe fresh air. When Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected president in 1932, his socially progressive legislative agenda included the formation of a national service component called the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC).
Federal dollars put the impoverished and the unemployed to work on federal lands to build roads, trails and facilities. CCC workers, each paid $30 per month, were mostly young men, from all walks and all corners of the nation, who spent weeks, months and sometimes years working in national forests, living in communal camps and recognizing the virtues of public lands.
During the 1930s, there were CCC camps in Woody Creek and at Norrie in the Upper Fryingpan. Gradually, forest access was opened to more users as land improvements mitigated erosion with the planting trees and shrubs, removing invasive or poisonous species, and making the forests prime recreation areas under the multiple-use mandate, which the Forest Service described as โinseparably interwoven into the social and economic future of forest communities.โ
Maintaining the health of the range within the White River National Forest was a constant challenge made more practical by the Taylor Grazing Act of 1934, named for U.S. Rep. Edward Taylor, D-Colo., of Glenwood Springs. The act was designed specifically to prevent overgrazing and soil deterioration, and to provide for the orderly use and improvement of public lands, while also stabilizing the livestock industry dependent on the public range. Fundamentally, the act protected the health of the rangelands and the resources they provided.
Members of the 10th Mountain Division climb a slope during a winter training exercise where the troops skied from Leadville to Aspen. This image was likely captured near Mount Champion. After the war, many 10th Mountain veterans were among the legions of young skiers and mountaineers who established the Colorado ski industry that was soon to develop resorts on national forest land. CREDIT: 10TH MOUNTAIN DIVISION RESOURCE CENTER, DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
World War II and the 10th Mountain Division
Americaโs entering World War II with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 raised demands for resources from the White River National Forest and reduced its workforce as all attention was focused on national defense. A different kind of attack, this one by the Engelmann spruce beetle, saw huge mortality rates throughout the forest, prompting foresters to implement the sustainable yield concept for renewable timber harvests, especially given the decimation from beetle-killed trees. This resulted in the passage, in 1944, of the Sustained Yield Forest Management Act, which found favor with the War Production Board and opened the forest to widespread logging. A deep cold snap in 1951 greatly reduced spruce beetle populations, restored forest health and obviated the need for insecticide applications that had been tested on Basalt Mountain.
The war brought a new user group to the forest when the 10th Mountain Division trained at Camp Hale, near Leadville. After the war, legions of young skiers and mountaineers were attracted to the stateโs Rocky Mountains, where many established the Colorado ski industry that was soon to develop resorts on national forest land. Aspen became a focal point for Coloradoโs identity with skiing, which brought Walter and Elizabeth Paepcke from Chicago to Aspen in 1945. Elizabeth Paepcke, who founded the Aspen Center for Environmental Studies (ACES), is described by Irwin as โan ardent conservationist trained by family friend, Gifford Pinchot,โ and later by early wilderness advocate Enos Mills.
A Civilian Conservation Corps work project on Castle Creek Road,1937. Workers camped on public lands near Ashcroft improved Castle Creek Road and built and repaired bridges. CREDIT: ASPEN HISTORICAL SOCIETY
NEPA boosts environmental oversight
As recreation created mounting pressures for land development, the Forest Service recognized the need for greater environmental oversight, leading Congress in 1969 to pass the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This groundbreaking legislation focused initially on the impacts of ski-area design and later became an overarching management tool for all public land uses.
Meanwhile, the White River National Forest became โthe ski-area forestโ as thousands of acres of public lands were permitted for ski runs and resort infrastructure. The town of Vail was incorporated in 1966, where by the end of the 1967-68 ski season, 1 million lift tickets were sold and revenues reached nearly $3 million. General forest visitation had also grown to 171,000 in 1947 from 96,000 in 1946. โFor every two who pitched camp in our forests in 1948,โ wrote a forester in 1950, โthree or more did in 1949.โ The recreation boom had begun.
By the mid-1950s, public demand for designated campgrounds created an ever-growing budget for facilities that could accommodate nature-seeking Americans. The role of the forests became focused on serving visitors in unprecedented numbers. The 1960 Multiple Use-Sustained Yield Act ushered in a new thrust for outdoor recreation as โmultiple useโ became the law of the land. Along with the explosion in tourism came ambitious water diversions as natural watersheds were impounded to fill dams and regulate flows for human benefit under the Bureau of Reclamation. Transmountain diversions and dams proliferated in the WRNF throughout the upper Fryingpan, Roaring Fork and Lincoln Gulch basins.
William Henry Jackson, who is credited with the image here, first photographed the cross of snow on the northeast face of the Mount of the Holy Cross in 1873, and the peak became one of the Rocky Mountainsโ best known features. It was declared a national monument in 1929, but saw that status rescinded in 1950 as the number of religious pilgrims declined. The 14,009-foot peak has been protected by the Holy Cross WIlderness since 1980. CREDIT: DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
The wilderness idea
As human impacts threatened over-development of forest lands, a chorus of wilderness advocates called for a balance by establishing primitive and wilderness areas based on Carhartโs memo urging the preservation of Trappers Lake. The Wilderness Act of 1964 made possible the formation of the Maroon Bells-Snowmass Wilderness Area and many other mountain redoubts with roadless designations and pristine environments. Today, containing eight wilderness areas, the WRNF has 751,900 acres of statutory wilderness, the highest protected landscapes in the country, and 640,000 roadless acres.
The wilderness philosophy calls for preserving the nationโs legacy landscapes, where man is only a visitor. Although a mere 2% of the 48 contiguous states is protected with wilderness designation, these irreplaceable landscapes are sought after more and more frequently. They are fast becoming overcrowded, with many wilderness areas requiring permits merely to set foot in them. A deeper concept of nature has redefined recreation with access to quiet, peaceful settings where visitors may experience a spiritual balm and even a moral grounding for humanity. Lakota Sioux Luther Standing Bear said as much when he wrote at the turn of the 20th century: โThe old Lakota was wise. He knew that a manโs heart away from nature becomes hard; he knew that lack of respect for growing, living things soon lead to a lack of respect for humans too.โ
By the turn of the 21st century, the WRNF strained to manage for multiple uses of limited resources as competing users seek a balance among development, land conservation, wilderness preservation and environmental oversight. Management pressures are only growing, but under the current Trump administrationโs Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), many forest rangers and administrators have been dismissed, staffing is nearing a critical shortage, and the long-range management goals that have underpinned the health and resilience of the White River National Forest are under grave risks that are likely to impact the quality of our public lands.
A national forest mission statement describes whatโs at stake: โThe White River National Forest provides quality recreation experiences for visitors from around the world. Through strong environmental leadership we maintain a variety of ecosystems, producing benefits of local and national importance. Our success is due to active partnership with individuals, organizations and communities. Our strength is a diverse and highly skilled workforce.โ
A current map of the White River National Forest, in green, which is Coloradoโs largest, containing eight wilderness areas shaded dark green on this map.
The WRNF by the Numbers:
Total Acres of Land: 2.3 million
Wilderness Acres: 751,900
Roadless Acres: 640,000
Miles of System Trails: 2,500
Miles of System Road: 1,900
Miles of Streams: 4,000ย
Ski Resorts/Acres: 12 Resorts, 45,500 acres
Number of Campgrounds/ Picnic Areas: 85
Visitors per year: 9.2 million
This story, and Aspen Journalismโs ongoing coverage of challenges facing local public lands, is supported by a grant from the Fund for Investigative Journalism.
After weeks of hot, dry and windy weather across western Colorado, Gunnison County Commissioners received a water-issues update on Tuesday that was filled with โsoberingโ news. In addition to details about Gunnison Countyโs worsening drought conditions, commissioners heard from representatives of the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) that the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is once again considering emergency releases from Blue Mesa Reservoir to bolster falling water levels in Lake Powell [in 2026, h/t Sue Serling].
West Drought Monitor map August 12, 2025.
According to drought.gov, approximately 50% of Gunnison County is in โextremeโ drought, compared to just 5% one month ago. Conditions in most of the remainder of the county are rated as โsevere.โ Precipitation for most of the county has been between 25% and 50% of normal for the past 30 days, with little immediate relief in sight.
CWCB representative Amy Ostdiek told commissioners she believes emergency releases will come from elsewhere in the Upper Basin this year, but couldnโt rule out the possibility that Blue Mesa would be included…If current conditions persist, Lake Powell is projected to fall below the critical elevation of 3,525 feet above sea level in the spring of 2026. This would be the second time that has occurred since the reservoir filled in 1980. The other time happened in 2021, precipitating emergency releases from Blue Mesa Reservoir and Flaming Gorge and Navajo reservoirs totaling 180,000 acre-feet. An acre-foot is the volume of water that would cover one acre a foot deep.
As of Aug. 10, Blue Mesa was 61% full and is projected to end the year at 51% of its storage capacity โ without any additional releases. Taylor Reservoir is forecasted to be at 65% of average capacity at the end of 2025. The threshold of 3,525 feet at Lake Powell was agreed to in the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement as the trigger point for possible releases. The purpose is to prevent Lake Powell from dropping below 3,490 feet, known as โdead poolโ โ the point at which the Glen Canyon Dam can no longer generate electricity. Up to 5 million people across six western states depend on hydroelectric power from the dam. Emergency releases in 2021 were controversial. Critics argued that federal authorities did not properly consult with Upper Basin water users prior to the decision and failed to account for impacts to local economies and communities. Further, many objected on the grounds that water managers had no way of measuring whether the extra water in fact reached Lake Powell.
Jeff Hurd, the U.S. representative from western Colorado, met this week with first responders and residents from a region where multiple wildfires are raging. The Lee Fire had become the fifth-largest wildfire in state history and was threatening the town of Rifle, where officials had to evacuate a state prison in the fireโs potential path.
In a social media post about the visits, Hurd thanked local authorities and community members for their response to the fires tearing across his district, and he vowed to โbe here for the long haul to help recover.โ
But nowhere did he offer the most appropriate gesture: an apology.
Hurd, along with the other three Republican members of Coloradoโs U.S. House delegation, has promoted drill-baby-drill policies as part of a Trumpist โenergy dominanceโ agenda, even though those policies crank up the greenhouse gas emissions that guarantee more megafires in Colorado. The only posture truly available to Hurd when he meets constituents is contrition. The only plausible message is, โI was wrong.โ
Rising global temperatures are increasing the risk and frequency of extreme weather across the globe. The Southwest is being transformed by aridification amid the worst drought in 1,200 years. There is no scientific doubt that the primary cause of climate change is the combustion of fossil fuels.
In Colorado, this means bigger, fiercer wildfires and a fire season that no longer respects warm-month limits. The most destructive wildfire in state history, the Marshall Fire in 2021 in Boulder County, occurred five days after Christmas. The stateโs 20 biggest fires have all occurred since the turn of the century. The three biggest came in 2020, when one of them, East Troublesome, grew so ferocious it leapt over the Continental Divide. A 2021 study found that hotter, drier conditions in the American West are causing fires, such as East Troublesome, to reach high elevations that were previously too wet to burn.
โAnd they are burning at rates unprecedented in recent fire history,โ the authors wrote. โWhile historical fire suppression and other forest management practices play a role in the Westโs worsening fire problem, the high-elevation forests we studied have had little human intervention. The results provide a clear indication that climate change is enabling these normally wet forests to burn.โ
Colorado is especially exposed. A huge part of the state is the site of one of the largest areas of the highest temperature spikes in the lower 48 states. It covers Hurdโs hometown of Grand Junction and much of his district. Either Hurd is oblivious to the science or heโs cynically chosen to side with oil and gas industry interests.
During the freshman Hurdโs campaign last year, he sometimesย seemed to alignย with an โall of the aboveโ energy policy, which at least purports to include renewables, but he also signaled aย strong preferenceย for fossil fuel extraction over wind, solar and other renewable energy sources. He evenย championsย coal, the most damaging of fossil fuels, a position heโsย reinforcedย as recently as April.
Hurd found himself in an awkward spot once he was in the House as MAGA extremism sought to demolish the all-of-the-above plank and demonize renewables. He and U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans of Fort Lupton were among 21 Republicans who urged colleagues not to eliminate energy tax credits, which support wind and solar jobs and development in Colorado. (The other two House members from Colorado, Lauren Boebert and Jeff Crank, left their names off the letter.) But they both voted to pass the recent Trump megabill, which eliminated the credits.
Hurd insists he believes climate change is real. But this just makes his approach all the more hypocritical. For example, he repeats the pro-carbon talking point that since fossil fuel in other countries is dirtier than Americaโs the U.S. should maximize production.
โIf you genuinely care about reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, then you ought to support getting as much energy out of Colorado as possible. That includes not only the clean coal that we have, but also natural gas,โ he told CPR in September.
But thatโs like saying that since people are going to abuse fentanyl even though itโs deadly, America should manufacture a superior product to preempt Chinaโs more dangerous supply. An immoral practice should be avoided because itโs immoral, not pursued with improvements.
If he has any doubt that prioritizing carbon-based energy is immoral, Hurd should take a closer look at the environmental catastrophe unfolding in his own district. He often cites the jobs at risk in the transition to renewable energy, but this short-sighted perspective ignores substantial state greening efforts to responsibly transition local economies, and it misses the larger risk that whole regions of a cooked Earth will be uninhabitable.
The megafires in Hurdโs district are exposing โenergy dominanceโ as disastrously self-defeating.
Intensifying short-term rainfall shortages led to expanding and intensifying dryness and drought over much of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Northeast, and parts of the Deep South, southern Plains, central Arizona, and the central Rockies. Meanwhile, a second consecutive week with moderate to heavy precipitation led to areas of improvement in the South Atlantic States from the Carolinas through Florida, across northern reaches of the Rockies and Plains, and over parts of the central Great Plains. The heaviest amounts (8 to 11 inches) doused areas in southeast Wisconsin from central Washington and Ozaukee Counties southward through much of north and central Waukesha and Milwaukee Counties. Meanwhile, 6 to 8 inches were dropped on a broader section of southeast Wisconsin as well as a few patches across southeast South Dakota, the Carolinas Piedmont and adjacent southern Appalachians, the coastal Carolinas, north-central Florida, the central Florida Peninsula, and interior southeast Florida…
Rainfall varied in intensity across the High Plains Region once again this week, with abundant rainfall amounts falling on much of North Dakota, southern Nebraska, and some spots in Kansas leading to improved conditions. Some improvement was also noted in part of the southeast Wyoming High Plains. Meanwhile, less precipitation kept dryness and drought approximately unchanged across South Dakota, and allowed for areas of intensification for the second consecutive week in central and western parts of Colorado and Wyoming. A sizeable swath of northwestern Colorado deteriorated into exceptional drought (D4), and D2 to D3 conditions expanded in other areas over and near the higher elevations in western parts of the High Plains Region. Since early July, USDA indicated that the proportion of topsoils short or very short of moisture increased from 20 to 32 percent in Colorado, and from 52 to 63 percent of Wyoming. In Colorado, 19 percent of the corn crop is in poor or very poor condition (up from just 1 percent in early July) while in Nebraska, one-third of the oat crop is in poor or very poor condition (up from 5 percent in early July)…
Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending August 12, 2025.
Heavy precipitation (one to locally multiple inches in most areas) prompted significant areas of improvement across northern and part of western Montana as well as portions of northern Idaho. Farther south, a few weeks of deficient monsoonal rainfall and above-normal temperatures prompted deterioration in D1 to D3 conditions across southwestern Montana, several swaths across Utah, and a few areas in Arizona and eastern Nebraska. In addition, conditions deteriorated from moderate to severe drought (D1 to D2) in part of northwestern Washington. In other parts of the West Region, dryness and drought was unchanged compared to last week. Outside the northern tier of the Region, very little precipitation was reported outside several tenths to about an inch in southeastern Arizona. The proportion of rangelands in poor or very poor condition increased in the last 5 weeks from 32 to 49 percent in Utah, from 22 to 44 percent in Washington, and from 10 to 34 percent in Idaho. Over half of the Washington spring wheat crop is in poor or very poor condition compared to just 17 percent in early July. During this period, the proportion of Montana spring wheat in poor or very poor condition increased from 37 to 47 percent. USDA also indicated that 53 percent of the Washington barley crop is in poor or very poor condition, compared to just 14 percent in early July…
Patches of moderate to heavy rain were observed over southernmost Louisiana and adjacent Texas, much of the Red River (south) Valley, the southern Texas Panhandle, and the northern tier of Oklahoma. Other areas saw scattered to isolated showers that did not markedly improve any extant dryness. Similar to conditions in adjacent Mississippi, above-normal precipitation earlier in the summer ebbed beginning in early July, and significant short-term rainfall deficits have accumulated over the past several weeks although multi-month precipitation totals are generally near or above normal. In conjunction with hot summertime conditions, this has led to quickly-depleting surface moisture over much of Tennessee, Arkansas, and portions of Louisiana. As a result, D0 conditions have been introduced and expanded rapidly. Farther west, less widespread short-term moisture deficits led to several patches of new D0 this week in western Arkansas, Oklahoma, and northeastern Texas. Farther south and west, some D0 and D1 expansion was noted in Deep South Texas, but dryness and drought were essentially unchanged across New Mexico and the remainder of Texas. USDA indicated that short or very short topsoil moisture covered 60 percent of Tennessee and 80 percent of Arkansas (up from 18 and 39 percent, respectively, in early July). The proportion of the Tennessee cotton crop in poor or very poor condition increased from 12 percent in early July to 26 percent last week…
Looking Ahead
From August 14 to 18, heavy rain (2 to locally 5 inches) is forecast in the higher elevations and coastal sections of Washington and Oregon, and also from the eastern Upper Mississippi Valley through much of the Great Lakes. At least several tenths of an inch of rain, with isolated totals near 2 inches, in areas commonly affected by the late summer and autumn monsoon in the Southwest and higher elevations of central Colorado. Similar amounts are anticipated in the Lower Mississippi Valley, Gulf Coast states, interior Southeast, South Atlantic States, coastal Northeast, northern Plains, eastern Great Lakes, and lower elevations of Washington and western Oregon. Light to locally moderate amounts potentially approaching an inch are expected in the Ohio Valley and scattered locations across the Rockies. Meanwhile, little or no precipitation is forecast across California, the Great Basin, the northern Rockies, the central and southern Plains, and the Middle Mississippi Valley. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Erin to move northwestward while strengthening into a major hurricane by the end of the period. Most guidance keeps the system east of the Bahamas and the East Coast, but there is a lot of uncertainty in any forecast hurricane track 3 to 5 days in advance. Rough surf and high waves may impact the East Coast and the Bahamas even if the storm stays well out to sea. Generally above-normal should prevail from the Appalachians westward through central and northern sections of the Plains and Rockies, as well as the coastal Northeast. Temperatures should average closer to normal over the Southeast, the mid-Atlantic, and southern portions of the Plains and Rockies. Cooler than normal weather should be confined to the Great Basin and West Coast States.
The Climate Prediction Centerโs 6-10 day outlook (valid August 19-23, 2025) features significant uncertainty in the precipitation outlook. Odds for above-normal precipitation exceeding 40 percent are found in much of southern Arizona and the northern High Plains, and nowhere else. There are, however, fairly broad areas with slightly enhanced chances (33 to 40 percent) for wetter than normal wetter; specifically, from the portions of the Southwest typically affected by the late summer and autumn monsoon through the central and northern High Plains, and the northern Great Plains. Similar odds favoring above-normal precipitation also prevail across the southern Great Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the interior Southeast, the Carolinas, the mid-Atlantic, and the coastal Northeast. Wetter than normal weather is also slightly favored across the northern half of Alaska. Meanwhile, odds lean towards below-normal rainfall in the Northwest and the northern Intermountain West, the Great Lakes, and the St. Lawrence Valley and adjacent New England. Drier than normal conditions are also favored along the southern tier of Alaska while near-normal amounts are expected across Hawaii. Meanwhile, warmer than normal weather is favored over the western half and southeastern quarter of the Contiguous United States, with odds reaching 60 to 80 percent in the central and northern High Plains, the Rockies, and the Florida Peninsula. Unusually warm weather is also favored across the southern half of Alaska, and Hawaii. Subnormal temperatures are favored over the eastern Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast.
US Drought Monitor one week change map ending August 12, 2025.
Lake Pleasant (pictured), located north of Phoenix, serves as the Central Arizona Projectโs water storage reservoir, as well as being a popular recreational amenity. Water shortages are impacting Colorado River basin reservoirs such as Lake Mead in Nevada and Lake Powell, which stretches across northern Arizona and southern Utah. Environmental changes throughout the Southwest are presenting challenges to maintaining flows. Photo courtesy of Central Arizona Project
Arizona is about to enter a new era when it comes to water rights and distribution.
The stateโs main source of surface water โ the Colorado River โ has been dwindling as a result of climate change and increased water demand.
That means less water for approximately 40 million people in two countries, seven states and 30 Native American tribes. And the rules that govern how states face water cuts are set to expire on Dec. 31, 2026.
The seven states involved have struggled to reach an agreement regarding the future of these cuts. But whatever the outcome may be of negotiations or potential litigation between these seven states, experts say that Valley residents face significant water risks, including:
Arizona could lose up to 40% of its water supply.
The Central Arizona Water Project could be significantly cut and would deliver less water.
The reuse of water will become paramount to the state, including turning wastewater into drinking water.
One Arizona State University expert says not to panic but be prepared to open your wallet.
Rhett Larson, the Richard Morrison Professor of Water Law at ASUโs Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law, estimates water prices could significantly increase in some parts of the Valley if Arizona cannot come to an equitable and sustainable agreement with the other six states on how to share in decreased flows of the Colorado River.
โArizona is not running out of water. We are running out of cheap water,โ said Larson, who is also a senior research fellow with the Kyl Center for Water Policy at ASU’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy. โThis means not just higher water rates, but also difficult choices on economic trade-offs โ for example, higher food prices due to less water for agriculture but lower housing prices with more water for residential growth.โ
ASU News spoke to several water policy scholars to get a behind-the-scenes look at how the seven states are working together on the new agreement, what are some viable options in case of a shortfall, and what Arizonaโs future looks like when it comes to its most precious resource.
Udall/Overpeck 4-panel Figure Colorado River temperature/precipitation/natural flows with trend. Lake Mead and Lake Powell storage. Updated through Water Year 2024. Credit: Brad Udall
A ticking clock
Over the past century, the Colorado River’s flow has declined by about 20%. With rising temperatures and declining Rocky Mountain snowpack, scientists have predicted flow reductions of up to 30% by mid-century.
The seven states within the Colorado River basin are under increasing pressure to develop long-term management strategies, as the existing agreements are set to expire at the end of 2026. A significant challenge lies in managing the persistent drought while balancing the requirements of stakeholders, including agricultural interests, urban water consumers, environmental needs and Indigenous rights holders.
In response to a prolonged drought, diminishing storage capacities and increasing demands for Colorado River water, the secretary of the interior issued a directive in May 2005 for reclamation to formulate enhanced strategies aimed at optimizing the coordinated management of the reservoirs within the Colorado River system.
On April 23, 2007, all seven states signed an interim agreement that memorialized the consensus recommendation to the secretary. Those rules have remained in place for the last 18 years, but the flow of recent events demand dramatic action.
โThereโs no way that this ends without lower water supplies in Arizona,โ Larson said. โEven the best-case scenario means that Arizona will have to make do with less water.โ
However, Larson said thereโs been progress as of late. He said there is a proposal on the table where the upper basin states would shift the way the water is measured to align more closely with reality.
โThere have been some promising breakthroughs, but it could also collapse into litigation,โ said Larson, who is representing Arizona in the agreement.
โThereโs a decent chance the states of the basin will sue each other in the United States Supreme Court, and who knows how that will play out?โ he said.
Options on the table
If the seven Colorado River basin states canโt come to an agreement by the deadline, Arizona does have other water options. Some are legal, some are logistical and some are long shots. And they all come with a price tag.
โTrends are pointing to the fact that the Colorado River is becoming drier and I think it would be safe to say that the Central Arizona Project wonโt be as large a provider of water as at present,โ said Enrique Vivoni, ASUโs Fulton Professor of Hydrosystems Engineering in the School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment and the director of the Center for Hydrologic Innovations. โSo, if thatโs the case, it means Arizona will have to start thinking about replacing that water supply. That would require investments.โ
Vivoni, whose research focuses on hydrology and water resources, said Arizona has several water augmentation options at its disposal. They include groundwater extraction, water desalination, reservoir expansion, wastewater reclamation and interbasin transfers from other areas.
All these options require complex agreements and investments.
For example, Vivoni said groundwater extraction would require major investment in infrastructure, such as new wells and pipelines to bring water supplies to existing systems. The desalination option could involve paying to build a plant in Mexico in exchange for a portion of their Colorado River water. Expansion of Arizonaโs Bartlett Reservoir capacity will require raising the dam to retain more Verde River water.
โAll of these options require capital expenses and large operations and maintenance costs on an annual basis,โ Vivoni said. โItโs going to require some hard choices. There will be some winners and some losers, and itโs going to require some behavioral changes by individuals, residents, communities, industry and cities.โ
By measuring the gravitational pull of water for more than two decades, NASA satellites have peered beneath the surface and measured changes in the groundwater supplies of the Colorado River Basin for years 2015 to 2024. Credit: NASA
Pressure on groundwater
In addition to the costs of tapping groundwater, ASU researchers recently reported that the stateโs unseen groundwater losses have been great as well.
Karem Abdelmohsen, Jay Famiglietti and colleagues used orbiting satellites to measure changes in groundwater from 2002 to 2024 in the Colorado River basin, in comparison to losses in streamflow and reservoir storage.
The satellite study found that groundwater depletion accounted for more than half of the total water storage loss in the upper Colorado River basin and more than two-thirds of losses in the lower Colorado River basin, which is greater than the losses in lakes Powell and Mead.
โThe rate of depletion has actually accelerated over the last decade,โ said Famiglietti, science director for ASUโs Arizona Water Innovation Initiative.
With less access to water from the Colorado River, demand for groundwater will grow. Famiglietti said that the effectiveness of groundwater management varies across the Colorado River basin states, leaving the resource open to overexploitation.
Cautious optimism abounds
If the seven states donโt come to an agreement soon, one possible scenario is that the secretary of the interior would make unilateral decisions on cuts and deliveries. Such actions would likely lead to lawsuits challenging the secretaryโs authority to do so.
โNot having a consensus agreement in place means we could go from relative certainty about the conditions of shortage to total uncertainty,โ said Kathryn Sorensen, who oversees the research efforts of the Kyl Center for Water Policy, serves as a professor of practice at the Watts College of Public Service and Community Solutions and contributes to the Global Futures Laboratory. โWhat we donโt want is someone making those decisions for us.โ
That lack of certainty could lead to many drawbacks, according to Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy.
โBeing in the dark about this situation could lead to higher (water) prices,โ Porter said. โIt could also lead to a disruption in economic development and the stateโs prosperity. Not having clarity regarding how much water will be available over the long term could impact the stateโs ability to attract industry. If thereโs too much uncertainty about our long-term water supplies, then weโre not a good bet for investment.โ
But water scarcity is not a new issue for Arizona. The state has a history of managing limited resources for collective benefit.
And thatโs reason for hope as the state faces these current challenges.
โIf you look at the history of water management in the Phoenix area, itโs a story of adaptation and overcoming obstacles and finding ways to be innovative,โ Sorensen said. โWe know how to do more with less, and weโre good at it.โ
Weโre also good at problem-solving and finding solutions, Porter said.
โIโm very optimistic about our water future because weโve had over 100 years as a seven-state basin to figure out solutions,โ Porter said. โIโm also optimistic because Iโve seen how creative and dedicated Arizona municipal water managers are โ theyโre resourceful, prepared and have their short- and long-term plans in place.
โI think thereโs going to be water to help us enjoy a good quality of life and a thriving economy for central Arizona for a long time.โ
ASU News reporter Joe Rojas-Burke contributed to this article.
Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0
An undated historic photo shows the U.S. Forest Service ranger near the Mount of the Holy Cross. Before the turn of the 20th century, public lands lacked formal protection. โNowhere has the strength and vitality of America been better reflected in the last 100 years than in the evolution of the National Forest System,โ a forest official wrote in 1990. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Editorโs note: This story is part two of a three-part series examining the notion of public lands, both in the United States and in our region. Part one looks at the earliest expressions of the commons in territories that would become the United States. Parts two and three look at the history and legacy of what is now the White River National Forest.
The evolution of the White River National Forest (WRNF) in just over a century mirrors the settlement of the American West โ from an unregulated, free-for-all wilderness to strategically managed industrial tourism and sustainable, extractive industries. As the WRNF formed, it refined its management purview over user groups as they expanded from traditional timber and ranching to the ski areas, recreation sites and wilderness terrain that define the forest today.
Beginning with its original designation as a forest reserve in 1891, forest management was besieged by militant factions that argued against any management at all. This was an era when user groups included homestead farmers, fiercely independent ranchers and opportunistic loggers. Shrill denunciations and blatant noncompliance often occurred with these original land claimants who argued that public lands should be designated for those who came first and that its uses should be for what was best for them alone. Only as the forest adapted to changing times and needs did the multiuse mandate create opportunities and protections for all.
A prime example was Fred Light, a traditional rancher in the Roaring Fork Valley from the 1880s who at first resented the overlay of federal control over lands where he and other ranchers had grazed their cattle with no oversight and no fees. Light later came to appreciate the forest as it protected his interests from other users who threatened to overrun grazing lands, usurp water from the range or, in other ways, impinge on grazing entitlements. Lightโs shift in temperament and his eventual willingness to follow forest regulations reflected a growing, if reluctant, acceptance that management principles are essential for all forest users to ensure equal access to the public commons.
Lightโs transformation spread to other users as complexities arose around the need for sustainability. As a result, the forest mission grew into the broader interpretation of what is the best and highest use for all. This egalitarian approach required a deep and pragmatic exploration of values and resources that led to accommodating conflicting interests.
In the early days of the WRNF, however, forestry officials were immersed in countless disputes and occasional violent conflicts. Rangers were harassed, beaten and fired upon as they performed their duties according to the evolving directives of forest administrators. Juggling over the ensuing decades the utilitarian and esoteric aspects of this remarkably diverse topography of mountains, valleys, meadows, forests and rock-and-ice alpine splendor has required scientifically based and diplomatically advanced regulations to avoid the impacts of overgrazing, timber clear-cutting, mining, overcrowded recreation and other issues yet to surface.
Through it all, the WRNF remains public land โ 2.3 million acres (3,593.75 square miles) of the most visited national forest in the United States, stewarded by rangers trained with the necessary skills of backwoodsmen, diplomats, defenders, peacemakers, resource managers and ecologists.
The story of the WRNF is therefore a weave of time and place, and of a people for whom the forest is both an economic lifeblood and a battleground for conservation and preservation. For many, the forest is a place of sacred, cherished, iconic and legacy landscapes in which any and all visitors may experience and celebrate the power and splendor of pristine nature.
The White River Plateau Timber Land Reserve, the second federal forest reserve to be created, came into existence in 1891 and has evolved into the White River National Forest we know today as the most visited national forest in the country. Its management purview reflects two centuries of tension between exploitation and preservation for the greater good. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Snowmass Mountain is shown in a historic U.S. Forest Service photo. The architecture of the White River National Forest was determined by vast and nearly incomprehensible geologic forces that shaped the mountain landscapes we see today. CREDIT: U.S. FOREST SERVICE
Public lands with no protection
In a foreword to Justine Irwinโs unpublished manuscript โWhite River National Forest: A Centennial History,โ Thomas Hoots, the WRNF supervisor in 1990, led off with a crucial observation: โBefore the turn of the century, the public lands were without a protector.โ The national commons was being plundered and exploited by whoever got there first. Such was the opportunism that was rampant during the fever of westward expansion marked by Manifest Destiny and a willful disregard to impose limits on human agency.
This land hunger was described the following way by Gifford Pinchot, chief of the U.S. Forest Service from 1898 to 1910 and one of Americaโs original wise use conservationists: โThere is no hunger like land hunger, and no object for which men are more ready to use unfair and desperate means than the acquisition of land.โ
Pinchot led a growing advocacy for conservation of national resources against great odds as they lobbied for protection of federal lands from the unbridled influences of capitalistic greed.
Richard A. Ballinger, secretary of the interior from 1909-11, clearly defined a prevailing view: โYou chaps who are in favor of this conservation program are all wrong. In my opinion, the proper course to take with regard to [the public domain] is to divide it up among the big corporations and the people who know how to make money out of it.โ
Thanks to those with clearer vision for a public lands legacy for America, the world and for future generations, Ballingerโs idea did not come to fruition. And yet such has been the message from the transactional Trump administration as the monetization of public lands offers yet again the potential for financial gain.
Thirty-five years ago, Hoots described a different ethic: โThe nationโs leadership recognized this dilemma and so began the long climb towards public land and resource management as we know it today. Nowhere has the strength and vitality of America been better reflected in the last 100 years than in the evolution of the National Forest System.โ
Gifford Pinchot portrait via the Forest History Society
The WRNF is an integral part of that system. It is also a stellar example of a forest that has withstood numerous threats and, despite many compromises toward achieving the multiple-use mandate, has retained the conservation principles that has made it one of the most successful stories of land management in the United States. โThe strength of our nation,โ concluded Hoots on the centennial of the WRNF, โdemands nothing less of the stewards of these public resources.โ
Federal forest management dates to 1876 when Congress created the office of special agent in the U.S. Department of Agriculture to assess the quality and conditions of forests in the United States. In 1881, the department expanded the office into the Division of Forestry. A decade later, Congress passed the Forest Reserve Act of 1891, authorizing the president to designate public lands in the West into what were then called โforest reserves.โ
Enter what would become the White River National Forest, the preliminary boundaries of which were drawn on federal maps under the direction of administrators in Washington, D.C. These long-distance planners for a realm of national treasures gazed over mountainous regions whose value they could only speculate, but which they reasoned were valuable in ways other than extractive, fast-buck profits measured only in capital gains for the few.
Responsibility for these reserves fell under the Department of the Interior until 1905 when President Theodore Roosevelt transferred their care to the Department of Agricultureโs new division: the U.S. Forest Service. Pinchot led this agency as its first chief, charged with caring for the newly renamed public commons.
The WRNF was created as the White River Plateau Timber Land Reserve on Oct. 16, 1891, by President Benjamin Harrison. This reserve was the second oldest in the newly conceived forest system, after a reserve established east of Yellowstone National Park, which two decades earlier became the countryโs first national park. The WRNF would become the largest forest in Colorado when, in 1945, it absorbed the Holy Cross National Forest, created as a reserve in 1905. This newly defined national forest was a priority because it was being exploited with unsustainable resource extraction. It soon earned a place of immeasurable importance in the mosaic of public lands designated across the rugged western United States.
A geologic map of Colorado, produced by the survey team led by Ferdinand Hayden in 1873-74, helped draw prospectors to the mountains. CREDIT: DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
Nature laid the foundation
The architecture of the WRNF was determined by vast and nearly incomprehensible geologic forces that shaped the mountain landscapes we see today. Precambrian granite is the bedrock that was heaved up, twisted, broken, eroded and later covered with beds of sandstone and, later still, covered with an inland seaway that stretched from Mexico to Canada.
That seaway propagated plant and marine life-forms that speak to a far-different climate and ecology than today and that would eventually, under enormous pressure, form into huge coal deposits. This Cretaceous Seaway then gave rise to new landscapes as several major uplifts shed the accumulated water into major river systems and began building the mountain peaks rising from the bedrock floor. The uplifting, some from magma upwelling, brought metals and minerals to the surface where they were dissolved in super-heated groundwater and conveyed in solution into bedrock faults and fissures where they precipitated out at concentration. This formed the veins that gold and silver miners would later extract through labyrinthine tunnels and shafts.
Glaciation sculpted the finishing touches on the landscape by paring mountains into ragged escarpments and precipitous arรชtes, and gouging deep U-shaped valleys where glacial runoff cut deeper still in the V-shaped drainages that we see today. Natureโs work is never complete, and so the mountains and valleys continue to be formed by erosion and an almost immeasurable continued uplifting from energies emanating from Earthโs depths.
Then biology stepped in and established an overlay of life, the flora and fauna that we see today inhabiting the niches where they are genetically suited to proliferate and thrive. These are the desert scrublands, grassy meadows, mixed forests and lichen-covered alpine terrain comprising a half-dozen life zones and multiple ecosystems that give the WRNF the diversity that characterizes a healthy and vibrant ecology.
The forest is home to one of the largest mule deer herds and one of the largest elk herds in the nation, as well as bighorn sheep, mountain goats, black bears, mountain lions, snowshoe hare, marmot, porcupine, badger, marten, ground squirrels and chipmunks, hundreds of bird types, and thousands of plant species in a veritable Garden of Eden of biodiversity.
But the human stories are what capture our imaginations, as noted in Irwinโs WRNF Centennial History; the people of the forest have differed greatly in their relationship to it: โSome have loved her, some have abused her, some have hated her, but all have made her what she is today.โ
A map shows the route of the 1776 Dominguez-Escalante expedition, led by two Spanish priests trying to find a way from Santa Fe to California. They reached Utah Lake before turning back, becoming the first Europeans to explore a vast portion of what would later become Colorado and Utah. CREDIT: WIKIMEDIA COMMONS
The first Europeans
The first Europeans to visit the region of the WRNF and enter the traditional homelands of the native Utes were Spanish Franciscan friars Fray Silvestre Velez de Escalante and Fray Francisco Atanasio Dominguez. The two explorers and their party left Santa Fe on an ambitious exploratory mission to find an overland route to the Roman Catholic mission in Monterey, in what later became California. They ventured into the Western wilderness in July 1776, the same year the American colonies declared independence from British rule.
After traversing what is now northern New Mexico and southwest Colorado, the party traveled north, eventually passing through the Paonia area and Muddy Creek. They met the Colorado River near Divide and Mamm creeks along the Grand Hogback, a diagonal sawtooth range near Silt and New Castle. With Ute guides, they crossed the White and Green rivers, making it as far as what is now known as Utah Lake along the Wasatch Front, where they encountered a thriving indigenous community. With winter approaching, the party turned back toward Santa Fe and faced starvation as they struggled to cross the Colorado River at a location now flooded by Lake Powell, but all made it back alive.
The Louisiana Purchase of 1803 opened the door to more exploration, this from the east where a few adventuresome parties reached Coloradoโs Front Range. The towering Rockies were considered too severe an obstacle to pass through, except for freelancing traders and trappers who knew no bounds and no limits in their pursuit of trade and beaver pelts.
A French trapper, Antoine Robidoux, was perhaps the first Anglo to trap in the White River in 1825, harvesting beaver pelts from Trappers Lake on the north side of the Flat Tops. The Yampa Valley, to the north, became widely visited by mountain men such as Jim Bridger, Kit Carson and Jedediah Smith.
John Fremont, an Army officer and explorer, took part in an 1845 journey that crossed Tennessee Pass from the Arkansas River basin and then followed the White River into Utah. Credit: Wikimedia Commons
The seizing of Texas from Mexico in 1836 by Sam Houston stretched the promising Western U.S. boundaries, inviting more visitation as manifest destiny became a divine entitlement for Western settlement and provided a God-given mandate to force out native peoples and exploit the land and its many resources.
In 1845, John Fremont, guided by Carson, crossed Tennessee Pass from the Arkansas Valley and along the White River to Utah. With the announcement that gold had been discovered in California, streams of fortune-seekers flowed west through Colorado, many of whom recognized the grazing potential of verdant mountain valleys well-watered by rolling streams and rivers. After striking out on California gold, some returned to what would, in 1876, become Colorado to farm and raise cattle. The discovery of gold along Cherry Creek, near todayโs Denver, made Colorado a hot new prospect in 1859, popularizing this mostly unmapped territory.
The next year, 1860, Capt. Richard Sopris, for whom Mount Sopris is named, prospected the Roaring Fork Valley with a party of 14. In journals, it was mentioned that they stopped to take in the soothing waters of Yampa Hot Springs at todayโs Glenwood Springs. The Homestead Act was passed by Congress in 1862, encouraging more western migration and providing a relief valve for growing national tensions during the Civil War.
Official U.S. survey teams were sent west to report on resources and tribal relations. Foremost among them was John Wesley Powell, a Civil War veteran who had lost his right arm in the Battle of Shiloh, but it didnโt impede him from exploring the Green, Yampa, White and Colorado rivers. By the early 1870s, cattlemen began grazing their herds in Brownโs Park and the Meeker area in what would become northern Colorado.
As permanent settlements became established, some officials in the federal government became aware that Western lands had no protective management. They garnered congressional funding for a particularly seasoned survey team under the leadership of Ferdinand Vandeveer Hayden, who would later win acclaim for surveying Yellowstone. Haydenโs 1873-74 visits to the Gunnison Country, the Roaring Fork Valley and the White River produced maps that would later draw hordes of mining prospectors into Ute lands in the late 1870s.
The Hayden Survey produced detailed drawings of multiple mountainscapes across Colorado, including these depictions of Pikes Peak, the Sawatch Range and Elk Range. CREDIT: DENVER PUBLIC LIBRARY
Hayden and his โRover Boys,โ including renowned photographer and artist William Henry Jackson and geographer Henry Gannett, for whom the highest peak in Wyoming is named, summited, triangulated, mapped and named most of the major peaks that we know and climb today. The scientific acumen that this team provided was monumental in their understanding of geology, flora and fauna. Hayden correctly referred to the Elk Mountains as an example of an โeruptive rangeโ and a โgeologic jumbleโ for the upheavals he recognized. Described as โtall, slender, with soft brown hair and blue eyes,โ Hayden, a consummate geologist, was given a nickname by the Utes that translated to โcrazy man who runs around picking up rocks.โ
A letter from Rover Boy J.T. Gardner to his daughter in New York state characterized what must have been a crowning moment in history to witness a pure wilderness: โWe are in full tide of successful career camping almost every night at 11,000 or 12,000 feet and climbing peaks 14,000 feet and over, their tops overlooking crested ridges and grand rock-walled amphitheaters where old glaciers were born, I cannot tell you how I am enjoying this wonderful region. โฆ What a sweet sight. โฆ The terrible grandeur around me here where life is represented by the grim bears crawling along the edges of perpetual snow fields or the mountain sheep scaling the shattered crags.โ
In a later letter, Gardner described the partyโs discovery of Mount of the Holy Cross where a horizontal ridge and vertical couloir form a snow-filled cross. โWe are undoubtedly the first who have ever reached this peak. I do not feel in the least over-fatigued and am very well and strong.โ Enduring an early-winter storm, Gardner wrote: โOn this climb I wore four heavy shirts and a thick buckskin coat. The snow blew so that I had to wear spectacles to protect the eyes.โ
Hayden spent 20 days nursing a sick member of the party at the base of Mount Sopris while his party explored the Crystal River Valley, with Jackson photographing it all. Unfortunately for history, Jacksonโs load-bearing mule stumbled and fell into the Crystal River, breaking the glass plate negatives. All photographic documentation from that portion of the survey was lost.
Nonetheless, Haydenโs Atlas of Colorado was published by the U.S. Department of the Interior in 1877, featuring six finely drawn resource maps identifying forests, pastures, croplands, and regions of coal, gold and silver. These geologic maps became a spur for treasure-seekers eager to flood into Ute lands. And there lay the age-old conflict between European trespass on the Western Slope of Colorado still controlled by the Utes under treaties, later broken, that were doomed at keeping the peace.
This story, and Aspen Journalismโs ongoing coverage of challenges facing local public lands, is supported by a grant from the Fund for Investigative Journalism.
