Click the link to read the article on the Climate Prediction Center website:
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: There is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December–February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023.
Pacific Ocean during September. Most of the Niño indices decreased during the past month, with the latest weekly index values spanning – 0.8C to-1.6C. For the last couple of months, negative subsurface temperature anomalies remained mostly unchanged, reflecting the persistence of below-average temperatures across the eastern Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly wind anomalies and upper-level westerly wind anomalies prevailed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific and was enhanced over Indonesia. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña.
The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2023. The forecaster consensus for this month favors a slightly later transition to ENSO-neutral, during February-April 2023, which is consistent with the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). However, predicting the timing of transitions is challenging, and there continues to be uncertainty over how long La Niña may last. In summary, there is a 75% chance of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter (December-February) 2022-23, with a 54% chance for ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023.