U.S. Winter Outlook: Warmer, drier South with ongoing La Niña — NOAA

This animation scrolls through NOAA’s 2022-23 U.S. Winter Outlook maps. The first two show which parts of the country have the highest chances for a much wetter or drier than average winter and a much cooler or warmer than average winter. The third map shows the projected changes in drought conditions through the end of January 2023, and the final map shows drought conditions as of October 20. NOAA Climate.gov animation, based on data from NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

DETAILS

This year La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the Climate Prediction Center—a division of the National Weather Service. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

“Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.”

Temperature

– The greatest chance for warmer-than-average conditions are in western Alaska, and the Central Great Basin and Southwest extending through the Southern Plains.

– Warmer-than-average temperatures are also favored in the Southeastern U.S. and along the Atlantic coast.

– Below-normal temperatures are favored from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the western Great Lakes and the Alaska Panhandle.

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