From The Associated Press via Colorado Public Radio:

Rivers are drying up, popular mountain recreation spots are closing and water restrictions are in full swing as a persistent drought intensifies its grip on pockets of the American Southwest.

Climatologists and other experts are scheduled Wednesday to provide an update on the situation in the Four Corners region — where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah meet.

The area is dealing with exceptional drought — the worst category. That has left farmers, ranchers and water planners bracing for a much different situation than just a year ago when only a fraction of the region was experiencing low levels of dryness.

“We face an overwhelming risk on the system, and the time for action is now,” Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Brenda Burman said Tuesday. She spoke before the Imperial Irrigation District in Southern California, one of the biggest single users of the Colorado River.

The drought has hit the Colorado River hard. Forecasters say the river will carry only about 43 percent of its average amount of water this year into Lake Powell, one of two big reservoirs on the system.

There’s a 52 percent chance that Mexico and the U.S. states of Arizona and Nevada will take a mandatory cut in their share of water in 2020 under the agreements governing the river, forecasters have said.

In New Mexico, stretches of the Rio Grande — another of North America’s longest rivers — have already gone dry as federal biologists have been forced to scoop up as many endangered Rio Grande silvery minnows as possible so they can be moved upstream.

The river this summer is expected to dry as far north as Albuquerque, New Mexico’s most populous city. The area saw its first major dose of rain Tuesday, bringing an end to a 54-day dry spell. It wasn’t enough to make up for months without meaningful precipitation.

From the New Mexico Political Report (Laura Paskus):

On Sunday, New Mexico entered into Article VII restrictions as storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs dropped below 400,000 acre-feet. Under Article VII of the Rio Grande Compact, that means Colorado and New Mexico can’t store water in any upstream reservoirs built after 1929.

In the Rio Grande watershed, reservoirs capture and store native Rio Grande water and water piped from northwestern New Mexico via the San Juan-Chama Project. Each drop is earmarked for particular users and managed under the legal strictures of the compact. Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs, for example, hold Rio Grande Project water for users in southern New Mexico and Texas. Heron, El Vado and Abiquiu reservoirs on the Chama River store water for cities like Albuquerque and Santa Fe, farmers and the six Middle Rio Grande pueblos. Cochiti Reservoir stores some San Juan-Chama water, but was built for recreation and flood control purposes.

Entering into Article VII restrictions wasn’t a surprise. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation officials have been warning since earlier this year that it would happen, due to the low snowpack and low spring runoff.

“Article VII restrictions are aimed at protecting the water supply of the Rio Grande Project,” explained Reclamation spokeswoman Mary Carlson. “However, with little to no runoff remaining upstream and the most optimistic [National Resources Conservation Service] forecast predicting zero inflow into Elephant Butte Reservoir, conditions on the project are unlikely to change much even with these restrictions.”

The issue merits a close eye given the state’s drought conditions and an interstate lawsuit over the waters of the Rio Grande. Currently, New Mexico is being sued in the U.S. Supreme Court by Texas and the federal government. The two parties allege that by allowing farmers in southern New Mexico to pump groundwater from near the Rio Grande, New Mexico failed for decades to send its legal share of water downstream.

Monsoon storms might provide some relief on the Rio Grande, but water from just one storm, or even several, can’t come close to making up the deficit. Speaking at a water conference last week, Bruce Thomson explained that flows in the Rio Grande are dominated by snowpack and receive little benefit from monsoons.

“Summer precipitation is very nice, but in terms of actual runoff, there is very little actual contribution,” said Thomson, professor emeritus and research professor at the University of New Mexico’s Department of Civil Engineering.

Pulse of water

By the time New Mexico entered into Article VII restrictions on May 20, about 20 miles were already dry through the Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge, extending upstream through San Antonio and toward Socorro. Drying began in early April, months earlier than in typical years.

Carlson said water managers and biologists from Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, the six Middle Rio Grande pueblos and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service coordinate daily on river flows.

“We are working closely with our partners who have already created two small operational pulses to help the Rio Grande silvery minnow to spawn,” she said. “The most recent appears to have been successful based on early egg detection in the Middle Rio Grande.” She added that the federal government continues efforts to lease all available San Juan-Chama Project water to supplement Rio Grande flows, as well.

Combined with a planned release of water at the Isleta Diversion Dam, she said, water from Monday’s storm created a pulse that will help silvery minnows spawn. Crews collect the eggs, then bring them to hatcheries, where the fish are raised and eventually released back into the river.

As for farmers in the Middle Rio Grande, hydrologist David Gensler says the storage restrictions shouldn’t affect deliveries. Gensler works for the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, which delivers water to farmers from Cochiti to south of Socorro.

Article VII will prevent them from storing water, he said, but it’s a “moot point.”

“Mainstem flows out of Colorado have been so low that we have been releasing from storage for the last 3 weeks just to meet [Middle Rio Grande] demand,” he wrote in an email prior to the official Article VII designation. “The runoff has come and gone, and there isn’t enough to store.”

The restrictions could affect the district later in the summer.

“Should we have a wet summer, and flows at La Puente do come up, then we will be unable to store excess water,” he said. La Puente is on the Chama River, above El Vado Dam. “That would be disappointing, but for the most part storing water in the summer is rare anyway.”

From The Fence Post (Amy Hadachek):

There are possible sources for rain opportunities in these spring/summer months, including anticipated periodic areas of low pressure and the dryline boundary (of instability) on the Plains, and possible rains if the El Nino sets up this summer, and then — the monsoonal flow (of seasonal reversal) up into the southern Rockies, among other storm-inducing features. Meanwhile, until the next rainfall, here’s the current drought impact.

SOUTHWEST COLORADO

For starters, extreme southwest Colorado including Durango are in exceptional drought, according to the Drought Monitor. Areas further north, including Grand Junction are in severe drought. Then further north into Steamboat Springs is classified as “abnormally dry.”

“So far this year, Durango has received just 1.39 inches of precipitation. Normal for this date is 5.21 inches, said Scott Stearns, meteorologist intern at the National Weather Service, Grand Junction, Colo. “The lowest ever was 0.81 inches in 2002, so this year isn’t the worst we’ve ever seen, but it’s close.” The Grand Junction NWS forecast area covers from the Continential Divide near Vail and Aspen, west into eastern Utah.

Grand Junction so far this year has received 2.91 inches of precipitation. Normal is 3.48 inches. The lowest ever received in Grand Junction was 0.77 inches. There’s potentially good news for southwest Colorado. “Some signals we’re seeing indicate the monsoonal moisture may come into our area a week or two earlier than normal, which is a good sign, although not a guarantee,” Stearns said.

“Western Colorado is favored to receive above normal precipitation, which is a change from last month’s outlook for June-July-August,” said Matthew Rosencrans, head of forecast operations, Climate Prediction Center, as he analyzed the latest 90-day outlook.

SOUTHEAST COLORADO

There’s also some hope for summertime rainfall in southeast Colorado, which is strongly needed to bust the current drought.

“The drought is bad,” said Service Hydrologist Tony Anderson at the National Weather Service in Pueblo, Colo. “If we go back to Oct. 1, snow accumulation has been at or near historic lows in the Arkansas River Basin and Rio Grand Basin. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, central and southeast Colorado have moderate to extreme drought conditions. The southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains are experiencing exceptional drought, which is the worst category.”

Since Oct. 1, (when precipitation really dropped off, also called the “Water Year”) Colorado Springs has received 2.63 inches of precipitation. Average for this time of year is 4.64 inches. Pueblo has received 1.89 inches, compared with the average 4.53 inches.

“The Climate Prediction Center indicates southeast Colorado is moving out of this drier pattern and closer to near-normal. A decent monsoon is indicated for the western Colorado/Utah area, but it’s highly variable regarding who gets rain and where thunderstorms set up each day,” Anderson said. “The CPC Drought Outlook indicates the drought may persist, but shows improvement mid-to late-summer.”

COLORADO LIVESTOCK

A Colorado Task Force overseeing Conservation Reserve Program and fire declarations, met on May 16, noting that because Colorado is a state with federally managed land, some decisions about when to turn cattle out, when to come off the land, when to graze or not, are actually out of the hands of producers, and are related to the environment.

Executive Vice President Terry Fankhauser of the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association told The Fence Post, some stocking rate reductions are taking place in southwestern Colorado.

“So, we have producers who are moving cattle to market early and are going ahead and selling because they’re concerned, if the drought persists they’d have to sell early, and they want to do it before cattle prices could possibly slip,” he said.

He also said that if the drought continues into the summer without much rain, the U.S. Forest Service would likely remove cattle from the federal lands to preserve adequate forage for wildlife.

“This would result in livestock producers finding alternative forage, which may not be available, or could be expensive to find and buy hay,” Fankhauser said.

He was quick to note this decision isn’t affecting the majority, and that many producers are optimistic and believe they’ll be able to push through this. “This thinking is probably appropriate, because after de-stocking, then the cost of re-stocking, as we learned in the 2012 period, can be very costly. We have (cattle association) members from southeast Colorado who have not yet recovered from from de-stocking in 2002 and 2003 and then re-stocking,” he said. Fankhauser said the cow price doubled following that drought.

“I believe that any de-stocking is a personal decision, and so, we work through issues and forecasting with producers so they’ll have ideas to bounce off about how their business is structured. You also have to live through feeding your family,” Fankhauser said. So, they only make recommendations, not decisions.

Some producers, and sale barns in southwest Colorado are having more cow runs than usual for this time of year.

“Remember, not all cattle can be raised at 8,000 feet so you can’t take a Kansas cow and bring it to Colorado and expect each one to survive in the mountains,” Fankhauser said. “A lot of these mountain ranches raise amongst themselves.”

Producers have been adding in oats to supplement alfalfa, which they’ll use for forage/silage to get some value. Fankhauser said there will be a market for hay, which doubled in price this past winter.

The southern half of Colorado is expected to make it through the summer with some irrigation water. “But that area looks like autumn right now; there’s been very little snowpack,” Fankhauser said. “The effect will be anyone down river, who counts on that snowpack.”

“A short-term drought is not going to put someone out of business,” Fankhauser said. “In a longer term drought, there’s stress on families, and if someone is emotionally struggling, we have a Crisis Hotline.”

As Agriculture Commissioner Don Brown recommends on the following website, “The agricultural economic crisis is real. The resulting stress is real. Let’s talk about it.” Call the hotline at (844) 493-TALK or text TALK to 38255 or go to https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/agmain/ag-financial-crisis.

“We think of ranchers as tough men and women, and they are but they’re human too,” Fankhauser said. “We hope this will be a short-term drought.”

SOUTHWEST KANSAS

“The drought has hit extremely hard here,” said southwest Kansas dryland farmers Marieta and Tom Hauser, who farm milo and wheat, and also planted some dryland corn last year for the first time on their farm in Ulysses, Kan. “We had some decent moisture last year, and now we’re right back in it,”

They’ll plant more this year, and are hopeful.

“We hope and pray we get enough rain to bring it up,” said Marieta Hauser, also the director of the Grant County, Kansas Chamber of Commerce, and on the Kansas Farm Bureau board of directors. “Also, the wheat is short this year and thin, but with a little moisture we could have a somewhat decent crop,”

The couple got almost three-fourths of an inch of rain (0.70) a couple of weeks ago, which was the first measurable moisture since October. “People here talk about the Grant County split; storms will rain north and south of us,” she said. “You watch it come, then it doesn’t materialize.”

As the chamber director, Hauser is also concerned that a drought hurts their retail businesses when people don’t have money to spend downtown.

“We also battled the fires and some of our CRP grass caught on fire when a train passing produced a spark, catching dry weeds alongside the track.”

Wildfires burned 30 minutes south and west of Ulysses.

KANSAS COUNTIES

Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer, MD, issued an executive order March 13, 2018, declaring drought in all 105 Kansas counties due to below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures. Twenty-eight counties are classified in emergency status from central Kansas into southern Kansas and southwest Kansas. Twenty-nine counties in central, western Kansas and the east/central parts of the state are in a warning status, and 48 Kansas counties are in a watch status which includes the rest of the state: north/central, northwest, eastern and southeast Kansas.

The complete national map shows the 2018 Secretarial Drought Declarations with extreme drought conditions from central and southern Kansas into all of Oklahoma, south into northwest Texas, then west into southeast and southwest Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Utah.

SOUTHWEST KANSAS LIVESTOCK

Right in the heart of southwest Kansas’ hardest hit drought area, David Clawson of Englewood, Kan., the 2017 president of the Kansas Livestock Association said the drought has gotten worse.

“We’re still supplementing on grass,” said Clawson, who has a cow/calf operation. “Livestock still come to our pickups for protein supplements, which tells you the grass doesn’t have enough to feed. It’s greening up, but we haven’t had enough moisture for growth, My neighbors are all in the same boat. We’re anxiously waiting to see if we get enough moisture to recover.”

Over the past 60 days, Clawson has been selling cows. “We’re de-stocking to just hold onto the best cows we can,” he said. “We also went through this in 2011 and 2012 so experience makes it a little easier to deal with. It’s just part of a planned program to give the grass a chance to recover.”

Just to their south, in Oklahoma, Clawson’s neighbors are in the drought area and have had to fight wildfires. “It’s just trying to green-up there,” he said. “We need a few inches of rain spread out over a couple of weeks. We got one of the best showers last night (May 15, with rainfall between 0.40 to 0.80 of an inch) and that’s encouraging, but we need much more.”

NEBRASKA

There are some areas that are now abnormally dry or beginning drought particularly in southern Nebraska, from Omaha westward to the area just east of McCook and then southward. However, an extension agent has some uplifting news.

“We are on the dry side. But one positive aspect, we had enough moisture for planting, and we got good stands,” said Randy Pryor, Nebraska Extension educator/resident in Saline County. “That is, unless you till the ground. We have people who till the ground but had to run pivots this season. However, on the other side of the coin, farmers were able to plant areas that routinely you just cannot plant because they’re usually too muddy,”

Also, in Jefferson and Saline Counties, there wasn’t the “flush of growth” in May that they typically get in cool-season pastures. “We were behind in April because of temperature, and then a growth in May in pastures,” Pryor said. “But, there’s going to have to be timely rains if we’re going to have a decent corn crop. We don’t have a full soil profile of moisture like we are used to in southeast Nebraska. Parts of Jefferson, Gage and Pawnee counties had some good rains, but you still have the ‘have nots.'”

Normally, those Nebraska counties expect an average of 4 1/2 inches of rain in May, which is the highest precipitation month on average in southeast Nebraska. However, official recordings in Saline County, for example in Crete official recorders received 0.41 of an inch, Friend 0.17, and the town of Western 0.93.

Pryor said in southeast Nebraska, they’re used to starting with a full profile of moisture on their silty, clay loam soils, which can mean 8-inches of water 4-feet deep, half of which is readily available for the crop. “Then, in dryland farming, you can figure on 6-feet deep, which would be 6-inches crop available water. We’re more used to that, which gives you resiliency in those times when you don’t have rains in the summer and gets you through a summer dry spell, but this is different when we’re starting out this way. For soybeans, our main concern comes in August to receive timely rainfall.”

Meanwhile, Pryor said Nebraska hay prices have escalated and are almost double, and there’s a drought to the south. “A local producer recently had a third cutting that went for $150 (for a big round) bale.”

Many pastures in these dry areas of southern Nebraska are heavily dependent on cool-season grasses, primarily bluegrass and brome grass.

“The challenge we’re starting to face pretty critically is that unless these grasses get some good growing moisture before Memorial Day, we’re likely to be short of pasture for the rest of the year. Once we get into June, July and especially August, the heat prevents them from growing very well, even when they have a lot of moisture,” said Bruce Anderson, Ph.D., University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extensive forage specialist.

WYOMING

The director of the Wyoming Cattlemen’s Association said that Wyoming is not in a drought. “We’re in pretty good shape,” said William Doenz.

There are, however, abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions reported over southwest Wyoming, and the next one to two weeks are forecast to be warmer than average. But there’s hope on the horizon.

“During these next couple of weeks, there are slightly wetter than average conditions expected, with an active weather pattern of periodic showers,” said Senior Meteorologist Mike Jamski at the National Weather Service in Cheyenne, Wyo.

Keeping a positive outlook can be challenging, but several folks believe it’s a choice.

“The life we’ve decided to live in — agriculture,” Clawson said, “We’ve just gotta have faith.”

“The weather cycles, you go through dry periods, and then there’s rain,” Hauser said. “So we keep at it.”

From WesternSlopeNow.com (Marcus Beasley):

The snowpack up in the mountains, which was below average for most places this year, is melting quickly…

A drought isn’t just affected by the lack of precipitation, being abnormally warm can have an effect on the drought as well. The drought and low snowpack will have an affect our summer water supply…

“Being in a drought now and having less snowpack now means that there will be less water for us as we go into the summer.”

The drought we’re currently in could also have long term effects if we’re dry again next year.

“If we start to continue to be dry and move into a year and a half to two years. that’s where it can really impact us, so it’s good to start conserving water now and to be thinking about that, conserve the water that we have so we can think about the future in case we don’t get those real good rains this summer that help us out or if the snowpack is low enoughnext year it could make it worse for the next year.”

Hopefully this summer brings us some much needed rain.

From The Vail Daily (Scott Miller):

Local rivers seem to have hit peak flows. That isn’t good.

The Colorado River at Dotsero hit its peak seasonal flow Tuesday, May 15. That peak was just more than 3,000 cubic feet per second. The median figure for that date — based on 77 years of data — is about 5,000 cubic feet per second.

This year’s May streamflows aren’t the lowest ever recorded, but the news isn’t good. Still, local water supplies and recreation will survive for the season.

At Minturn Anglers, guide Alex Garnier said fishing on the Eagle River has been good so far this season. The water is clearer than usual, and the flows are low enough to fish in a number of spots…

While the Colorado River has probably hit its seasonal peak, there could be some spikes to come on Gore Creek and the Eagle River.

In an email, Eagle River Water & Sanitation District Communications and Public Affairs Manager Diane Johnson wrote that a string of warm days could accelerate snowmelt in the upper reaches of Gore Creek and the Eagle River. That more-rapid snowmelt could spike flows above current peaks. Those peaks are now running ahead of seasonal medians.

No one wants the snow to come off any faster, though, since snowpack makes up a major portion of the district’s water storage.

“If it stays a little cooler we get to keep (runoff) flowing a little longer,” Johnson wrote.

Click here to read the current assessment from the Colorado Climate Center. Click here to go to the NIDIS website hosted by the Colorado Climate Center.

From 9News.com (Jordan Chavez):

“Snowpack in the South Platte collection system… is well below average,” said Travis Thompson, a spokesperson for Denver Water.

The other half of Denver Water’s supply comes from the Colorado River Basin which also isn’t running at the level it usually does. The river’s water flows have already peaked, according to the National Weather Service.

Colorado Water Trust told 9NEWS this is extremely early.

“It looked like a very unusual year,” said Andy Schultheiss, Colorado Water Trust’s executive director. “It was a La Nina year and a lot of storms passed to our north. It was looking bad quite early this year.”

The collection systems from both rivers are made up of snowpack which is important when it comes to putting out wildfires, according to Schultheiss.

“People think summer storms help with wildfires but they don’t actually prevent it,” he said. “It’s those snowpacks that infiltrate into the soil that really control wildfires. So, when you have a year like this, when there’s very little snowpack, the potential for a serious wildfire goes way, way up.”

From News 4 Tucson (Jeff Beamish):

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, much of Arizona has slight chance for above average rainfall between July and September.

Northeastern Arizona has the best odds for above average Monsoon rainfall. Coincidentally, the worst of the ongoing drought resides around the Four Corners region.

Below average Monsoon rainfall can’t be ruled out, according to the CPC’s latest odds. Southern Arizona has a 67% chance for near or above average rainfall, but only a 33% chance for below normal Monsoon precipitation.

The Monsoon officially begins on June 15th and ends September 30th. Climatology says Tucson’s average Monsoon rainfall is 6.08”.

From Western Resource Advocated (Erin Overturf):

But climate change is impacting those of us who live in the West. It may not come in the form of “super storms,” but it can be just as devastating. These are three of the most prominent threats of climate change in the West:

Threat #1: Water Supply

Perhaps the most profound and immediate threat from climate change in the West is to our water supply. Our rivers help to sustain our iconic wildlife, feed our communities, power our economies, and offer an escape to play.

Most of our precipitation falls as snow in the mountains, which acts like a water bank for downstream communities. Climate change has shortened the winter – when we stock up on snow – leaving our water supplies uncertain. In turn, our landscape is getting drier, leaving it more vulnerable to severe drought and bigger, more dangerous wildfires. And the effects compound each other: a drier landscape means more dust, and dust causes snowpack to melt and evaporate faster from our mountains, leaving less water flowing into downstream rivers and reservoirs.

Threat #2: Wildfires

Our mountains and canyons across the West are known for their gorgeous expanses of forests and grasses. Our prairies offer sustaining agriculture and the poetry of endless blue skies. Historically, natural wildfires have refreshed soil nutrients and maintained the forest ecosystem.

But climate change has changed that natural fire dynamic on Western lands. Since 1970, the annual wildfire season has lengthened by 78 days. Since 1984, the area that burns annually has doubled. The Forest Service estimates that area may double again by 2050. Our forests and grasslands are drier and more susceptible to disease and pests, such as the mountain pine beetle. When they do burn, they burn hotter and longer, endangering ecosystems, wildlife, and homes.

Threat #3: Our Public Health

We sometimes forget the effect that climate change has on our own health. Higher temperatures can cause air pollution, such as from ozone and dust. People who suffer from asthma, like my son and me, are particularly vulnerable when air quality is low. Smoke from wildfires can make it impossible to venture outside without wheezing. Increased ozone and poor air quality disproportionately impact those who suffer from heart disease, the elderly, the young, and low-income communities. And they make it harder to get outside and enjoy the beauty of the West.

From The Mountain Town News (Allen Best):

Ski slopes in Colorado and other parts of the West were slow to turn white this now-departed winter. That’s not terribly unusual. For nearly all of the modern resort era, ski hill bosses have periodically summoned Native Americans to speak to the higher powers. Ski areas can announce opening dates months in advance, but weather keeps its own schedule.

Snowmaking can overcome that varied natural schedule. But even snowmaking failed the Aspen Skiing Co. and many other ski areas in Colorado and elsewhere early in the past season. It was just too warm.

Snowmaking begins at temperatures of 26 degrees F. or less, but the machines can really crank at temperatures of 10 degrees Fahrenheit, observes Victor Gerdin, mountain planner for the Aspen Skiing Co.

“Not only did we have very few days of 26 degrees or less, we had practically no days of 10 degrees in November and December,” he told the Aspen Daily News.

Aspen plans to plow $5.5 million into new snowmaking equipment before next winter at its four ski areas. Some of the new equipment will replace older, less energy-efficient infrastructure. But Aspen also hopes to expand terrain covered by snowmaking, especially so at its money mountain, Snowmass.

Can snowmaking overcome the effect of global warming altogether? No—and some ski areas too low in elevation to sustain cold temperatures are almost certain to fall by the wayside. But for others, snowmaking can provide a crucial margin to sustain operations. The key, says Robin Smith, a snowmaking consultant, is that resorts invest in the most modern equipment, to maximize opportunities during shrinking windows of cold temperatures.

Smith, who has several dozen clients among ski areas across the country, says some of his customers have lost 30 percent or more of their snowmaking windows in the last decade. “That makes snowmaking tougher,” he tells Mountain Town News.

He foresees significant challenges for lower-elevation ski areas on the East Coast, the Midwest and elsewhere. Aspen, Vail and other higher elevation resorts in the Rockies will still have snow, but will face problems —similar to this year—of increased weather volatility produced by the warming atmosphere.

In a 2016 study, the Environmental Protection Agency projected temperatures in decades ahead for 247 ski areas in the United States. The study concluded that warming temperatures will cut deeply into the 450 hours of sufficiently cold temperatures that ski areas commonly believe they need to make snow in time for Christmas openings. That study, however, did not address the potential savior of automated snowmaking systems, says Smith, of Snowconsult.

This past winter was a challenge for many ski areas in Colorado, California and other regions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a map for December through February showing that much of western Colorado, including Aspen, had “much above average” temperatures.

This fits with what Aaron Smith, a ski patroller at Aspen Highlands, told Auden Schendler, Aspen’s vice president for sustainability, during the early season struggles.

“He said that it wasn’t that there was no snow coming down. It was that when any (solar) radiation hit it, it melted right away,” says Schendler. “That speaks to warmer temperatures I think.”

This fits in with the conclusions of a paper published in February 2017 by Water Resources Research. The authors of the paper declared that the drought of the 21st century in the Colorado River Basin actually had more to do with temperature increases than precipitation declines.

One of the researchers, Brad Udall, of Colorado State University’s Colorado Water Institute, laid out the thesis at a conference in downtown Denver recently. He said that a 20 percent decline in overall precipitation has been recorded in the basin from 2000 through 2017. This is despite a 5 percent increase in moisture content in the warming atmosphere.

“Something very odd and unusual is going on,” Udall said at the inaugural Water in the West Symposium.

“Something very odd and unusual is going on,” Udall said at the inaugural Water in the West Symposium.

Udall’s partner in the research, Jonathan Overpeck, formerly of the University of Arizona and now dean of the School of Environment and Sustainability at the University of Michigan, further fleshed out the study a few days later at the 2018 Next Generation Water Summit in Santa Fe.

The two big reservoirs on the river, Powell and Mead, were full in 1999, he pointed out. Powell was 52 percent full and Mead 39 percent fill as of April 28. Lake Mead, with a surface level now at 1,080 feet, is likely to drop below 1,075 feet, the place where shortage criteria kick in.

“That’s why we’re now starting to see fights over water again,” he said, alluding to a flurry of sharply-worded letters from upper-basin states to the Central Arizona Project. The upper-basin states accuse the Arizona agency of manipulating water demands and supplies for self-gain, at the expense of other water users.

Why are the reservoirs emptying? It’s not drought, as conventionally understood. It’s what Overpeck and Udall call aridification.

“Precipitation in this current drought is a contributor, a secondary contributor. The main cause of this drought is temperature,” said Overpeck.

The warming atmosphere, he explained, demands more moisture. This is accomplished in various ways. Most significant is increased evapotranspiration from soil and plants Precipitation is also sublimated from snow, there is more rain and less snowpack, and the growing season is longer. Plus, of course, there is more evaporation from surface water.

“Stop thinking about drought as precipitation,” he said.

Modeling indicates that if we tamp down emissions that temperatures will rise only 1 to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 to 3.6 degrees F), he said. But at the top end, without changes, warming of 5 to 7 degrees C (9 to 12 degrees F) can be expected.

Might the warming atmosphere produce more precipitation? Overpeck concedes that possibility. Climate models that cover Colorado have suggested a trend toward less precipitation in the Southwest and more precipitation in the northern half of the state. But water experts have warned that the models at this relatively micro-level have great ranges of uncertainty.

But even more precipitation falling from the sky will not result in precipitation that lingers on the ground, said Overpeck.

The Rio Grande Basin may be even harder hit. The river starts in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado, flowing past Taos and Santa Fe. U.S. Senator Tom Udall (a cousin to Brad Udall), speaking at the same conference, suggested more reservoirs are needed in the headwaters of the Rio Grande instead of at Elephant Butte, the big down-stream reservoir that loses so much water to evaporation.

In Denver, Brad Udall said temperature-induced losses in the Colorado River Basin will triple by 2050 and increase almost six-fold by the end of the century.

Earlier this year, Oregon’s Philip Mote and other researchers also fingered rising temperatures in a study of changing hydrology.

This won’t end skiing in the high Rockies, but it does suggest that the warm temperatures that frustrated efforts by Aspen and many other ski areas from making snow last November and December will become more frequent in decades ahead.

Some ski areas will have it worse than others. The EPA study concluded that given the current trajectory for greenhouse gas emissions, most skiing—even with snowmaking—will be gone in the East, Midwest and coastal Far West by 2090. Some of ski areas will be closed even sooner, within 30 years.

Smith, writing in the May issue of Ski Area Management, said he “absolutely believes the temperature predictions” produced for individual ski areas by the EPA study. However, the EPA study failed to account for improvements in snowmaking as well as the durability and resistance to melting of machine-made snowpack, he says.

Can snowmaking compensate? If the United States and other countries contain greenhouse gas emissions in line with the targets identified in the Paris climate accords, the answer seems to be yes, at least until 2050, and for most all resorts well beyond.

“But that’s only if each resort can adopt today’s cutting-edge snowmaking technology on a significant enough percentage of its terrain,” wrote Smith, who previously worked for five years as the North American representative for Italian snowmaking manufacturer TechnoAlpino.

“Automated snowmaking systems will be essential, because the windows of snowmaking opportunity will get smaller, and the available hours will become less. This has been happening already, of course. My clients in the last 10 years have observed 30 percent fewer total snowmaking hours under 28 degrees wet bulb. For clients with full automation, the diminished hours have not shortened their season at all.”

That’s if the world constrains emissions. If not? What if we continue with business as usual?

“Things get more difficult for all areas outside of the Central Rockies and the High Sierras, especially after 2050. We’d need some kind of technological breakthrough I don’t see coming.”

About Allen Best
Allen Best is a Colorado-based journalist. He publishes a subscription-based e-zine called Mountain Town News, portions of which are published on the website of the same name, and also writes for a variety of newspapers and magazines.
View all posts by Allen Best →

From KUNC (Luke Runyon):

A new study from NASA reinforces the idea that droughts are getting worse and could become more frequent in the Western U.S.

The culprit is human-caused climate change.

Droughts aren’t just about precipitation, says NASA scientist and the study’s co-author Benjamin Cook. They’re also about the timing of snowmelt and the wetness of soil, both of which are upended by a warming climate…

“We have pretty clear evidence now that climate change has already begun to make droughts worse or more likely in at least some regions,” he says. “So it’s a now problem, not a future problem.”

Definitions of drought vary. A meteorological drought happens when snow and rain are diminished. An agricultural drought is tied to soil moisture and can be influenced by the type of soil and the crops and vegetation grown. A hydrological drought refers to lessened runoff from snow, which in turn means less water ending up in surface reservoirs.

Here’s the link to my post about the late Kelly Redmond’s commentary, “The Depiction of #Drought,” required reading from professor Fleck.

Nowadays you have to include the “hot drought” and “aridification” in your calculus. Read this publication from the Colorado River Research Group, “When is drought not a drought? Drought, aridification, and the “new normal.”

Click here to read the discussion:

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19.

During April 2018, the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral, as indicated by mostly near- to- below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the equator. The latest weekly Niño indices were near zero in all regions (between +0.2°C and -0.3°C), except for Niño-1+2, which remained negative (-0.6°C). Subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) remained positive, due to the continued influence of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. Atmospheric indictors related to La Niña also continued to fade. While convection remained suppressed near and east of the Date Line, rainfall near Indonesia was also below average during the month. Low-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level winds were anomalous westerly over the eastern Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected a return to ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018 (Fig. 6). As the fall and winter approaches, many models indicate an increasing chance for El Niño. Therefore, the forecaster consensus hedges in the direction of El Niño as the winter approaches, but given the considerable uncertainty in ENSO forecasts made at this time of year, the probabilities for El Niño are below 50%. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor.

US Drought Monitor May 15, 2018.

West Drought Monitor May 15, 2018.

Colorado Drought Monitor May 15, 2018.

Click here to go to the NIDIS website hosted by the Colorado Climate Center. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

During the 7-day period ending Tuesday morning, areas of locally heavy rain provided drought relief from the Plains to the East Coast, though much of the Southeast was dry. Toward the end of the time frame, an influx of tropical moisture associated with a slow-moving disturbance generated heavy to excessive rainfall in Florida, with rain associated with this broad area of unsettled weather overspreading the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States after the data cutoff for this week’s analysis; any rain that falls after 12z Tuesday (8 a.m., EDT) will be incorporated into the following week’s drought assessment. In contrast, dry, hot weather maintained or exacerbated drought from the southern High Plains into the Southwest. Likewise, despite the generally unsettled weather pattern, pockets of dryness and drought lingered or intensified in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains…

South

Spotty heavy downpours brought localized drought relief to portions of Oklahoma and Texas, while dry, warmer-than-normal weather prevailed across the rest of the region. Locally heavy showers (2-4 inches) dotted drought areas from central Texas northward into western Oklahoma. Where rain was heaviest, reductions in drought intensity and coverage were made; however, considerable longer-term deficits remained, with the remaining Exceptional Drought (D4) areas reporting less than 25 percent of normal precipitation (locally less than 10 percent) over the past six months. Along the Gulf Coast, Abnormal Dryness (D0) was expanded eastward to reflect increasingly dry conditions over the past 30 to 60 days, while D1 and D2 were added in coastal locales where 90-day rainfall was less than half of normal. Farther inland, Moderate to Severe Drought (D1 and D2) were expanded in western Texas to reflect increasingly dry conditions at both the shorter term (60-day rainfall averaging 10 to 25 percent of normal) and longer time frame (6-month precipitation averaging less than 50 percent of normal, locally less than 25 percent)…

High Plains

The overall trend toward improving conditions in the south contrasting with increasingly dry weather in the north continued. From northeastern Colorado into central and southern Kansas, areas of moderate to heavy rain (1-3 inches) netted reductions in drought intensity and coverage. The most significant improvements were made in south-central Kansas, where a large area of 2 to 4 inches of rain (locally more) fell on areas of Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought. Moderate to heavy rain (1-3 inches) was similarly beneficial in northeastern Colorado, trimming the aerial extent of Abnormal Dryness (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1). Farther north, outside of locally beneficial downpours (1-3 inches) in northwestern South Dakota, acute short-term dryness over the past 30 days resulted in expanding D0 across southwestern South Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and northeastern Montana, while a more prevalent dry signal over the past 90 days (50 percent of normal or less) led to expanding D1 and D2 in northeastern North Dakota…

West

Outside of beneficial rain and high-elevation snow in the north, pronounced short- and long-term dryness led to drought intensification and expansion across the Southwest. In southern Idaho, Abnormal Dryness (D0) was removed from most locales north of the Snake River, as recent rain and snow have pushed Water Year (to date) precipitation at or above the 35th percentile. However, sub-par seasonal precipitation coupled with increasingly dry conditions over the past 30 days led to the expansion of D0 in northeastern Montana and Moderate Drought (D1) in southwestern Idaho. Abnormal Dryness was expanded westward across central and northern portions of California’s Coastal Range due to a sub-par water year coupled with increasingly dry conditions over the past 30 days (deficits of 2 inches or more, locally less than 10 percent of normal). Farther south, Severe, Extreme, and Exceptional Drought (D2-D4) were increased from southern California into much of New Mexico. Changes were most pronounced in eastern portions of the region, where Water Year precipitation was in the 2nd percentile or lower, particularly across the northern third of New Mexico. Satellite-derived vegetation health data indicated conditions have deteriorated rapidly across the region, with the worst vegetation indices with respect to normal noted from Arizona southeastward into southern New Mexico. Drought Monitor authors are in close contact with local and regional experts from the Southwest, and further detailed analysis will likely result in additional intensification and expansion of drought as the situation is assessed over the upcoming weeks…

Looking Ahead

An active pattern will continue, with three significant areas of wet weather over the next 5 days. Moderate to heavy rain will continue to soak locales from the Appalachians to the East Coast, with totals approaching or topping 5 inches in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will develop over the middle part of the nation, triggering moderate to heavy rain (locally more than 2 inches) from the central Plains into the Dakotas, while a trailing cold front producers similar rainfall amounts over north-central Texas and environs. Finally, a pair of upper-air disturbances will generate periods of rain across the northern two-thirds of the western U.S. Despite the unusually active pattern, dry weather will prevail from central and southern California into the lower Four Corners. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for May 22 – 26 calls for below-normal rainfall across central and southern Texas and from the Great Lakes into New England. Conversely, wetter-than-normal conditions are expected from northern portions of the Rockies and Great Basin to the central and southern Atlantic Coast, with the greatest likelihood for abnormally wet weather in the Southeast. Abnormal warmth is expected over most of the nation save for near-normal temperatures in California and New England.

From CBS Denver (Ashton Altieri):

The City of Salida is now encouraging residents to follow the voluntary restrictions “similar to past years”. This includes even street address watering on even numbered days and odd on odd days and not watering between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.

A year ago no part of Colorado was officially under drought. A few areas were “abnormally dry” including all of Park County and much of the Grand Junction area.

Fast forward to May 2018 and nearly 70% of the state is under some state of drought, making it likely that voluntary water restrictions may become mandatory restrictions in some areas.

From 5280.com (Jay Bouchard):

With dangerously low snowpack levels across the state, Colorado is facing a severe water shortage. We take a look at what that means for rivers, wildfires, and the future of water use in the West.

To put things in perspective, on April 9—which is historically the peak day for snowpack in Colorado—almost the entire state was sitting at below-average levels. Southern Colorado had it worst. The Upper Rio Grande basin, for instance, boasted a meager 43 percent of its normal snowpack. The Gunnison basin sat at only 57 percent. The Arkansas basin was at 63 percent. Only the North and South Platte River basins approached normal levels.

A month later, little has improved. “We’re staring down a pretty bleak water year,” says Matt Rice, director of the American Rivers’ Colorado Basin Program. And what’s worse, he says, is that “This is absolutely part of a trend.” According to river and conservation scientists, Colorado is in the midst of a drought that dates back to the record-dry year of 2002. Although we have had some wet winters over the past two decades, dry seasons are now becoming “the new normal.” And that’s a problem—not just for our ski resorts, rivers, and lakes, but also for our farmers, cities and our neighboring states…

Ask a climate scientist why water scarcity in Colorado has become so dire, and their most simple answer will likely be a two-part explanation: Climate change and population growth. Over the past several decades, Colorado has seen warmer temperatures with dryer winters and diminished snowpack. It doesn’t help that, since 2000, Colorado has gained approximately 1.3 million residents, all of whom in some way rely on the state’s water sources. “The population growth is very much compounded by climate change,” Rice says. “There is increasing demand on rivers for municipal and industrial water use.”

[…]

Moreover, the Front Range gets about 50 percent of its water—roughly 160 billion gallons—via annual trans-mountain diversions from rivers on the Western Slope. These diversions draw water away from communities and rivers experiencing the most severe drought conditions in Colorado. “We’re all connected, says Bart Miller, Healthy Rivers program director for Boulder-based Western Resources Advocates. “Water use in Denver, in some ways, is having an impact on our West Slope neighbors.” A complicated diversion system, in conjunction with population growth and a changing climate, leaves us facing a stark reality: We’re running out of water.

Click here to read the report:

Climate Highlights — April

Temperature

During April, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 48.9°F, 2.2°F below the 20th century average, making it the 13th coldest April on record and the coldest since 1997.

Below-average temperatures were observed from the Rockies to the East Coast. Twenty-two states had an April temperature that ranked among the 10 coldest on record. Eight states had their second coldest April on record and two states—Iowa and Wisconsin—were record cold.

Above-average April temperatures were observed across much of the West, with record warm temperatures for parts of the Southwest. Arizona had its second warmest April on record with a statewide temperature 6.3°F above average.

Above-average April temperatures were also observed in southern Florida.

The contiguous U.S. average maximum (daytime) temperature during April was 61.7°F, 1.7°F below the 20th century average, marking the 21st coolest value on record and coolest since 1997. Below-average maximum temperatures were observed from the Rockies to East Coast, with 19 states having a top 10 cold April maximum temperature. Iowa had a record cold April maximum temperature.

The location of record and near-record cold maximum temperature coincided with record-setting April snowfall. Above-average conditions were observed in the Southwest, where Arizona had its second warmest April maximum temperature on record.

Nationally, the April minimum (nighttime) temperature was the seventh coldest on record at 36.1°F, 2.6°F below average. Below-average conditions were observed from the Rockies to the East Coast, where nine states had an average minimum temperature for the month that was record cold with fourteen additional states having much-below-average minimum temperatures. Above-average minimum temperatures were observed across the West.

The Alaska average April temperature was 26.6°F, 3.3°F above the long-term mean. This ranked among the warmest third of the historical record. St. Paul and Cold Bay each had their fifth warmest April on record. Along the state’s west coast, sea ice continued to be much below average, contributing to the above-average temperatures. Some impacts of the low sea ice reported include coastal erosion and loss of hunting/fishing grounds.

During April there were 7,068 record cold daily high (3,778) and low (3,290) temperature records, which was about 2.8 times the 2,563 record warm daily high (972) and low (1,591) temperature records.

Based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during April was 82 percent above average and was the fifth highest value in the 124-year period of record. The below-average temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest contributed to the above-average REDTI.

Precipitation

The April precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 2.41 inches, 0.11 inch below average, and ranked near the median value in the 124-year period of record.

During April, above-average precipitation was observed along the West Coast, Northern Rockies and much of the East. Record high precipitation was observed in parts of the Northwest, with Washington state having its third wettest April on record with 5.53 inches of precipitation, 2.70 inches above average. This was the wettest April for the state since 1996.

Below-average precipitation stretched from the Southwest, through much of the Great Plains, where five states had a monthly precipitation total that was much below average. The dry conditions in the Southern Plains provided ideal wildfire conditions with numerous large wildfires burning during the month. Record-low precipitation was observed in parts of the Southwest and mid-Mississippi Valley.

According to NOAA data, analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the contiguous U.S. snow cover extent during April was 508,000 square miles, 227,000 square miles above the 1981–2010 average. This was the fifth largest April snow cover extent on record for the Lower 48 since satellite records began 52 years ago, and the largest April snow cover extent since 1997. Above-average snow cover was observed for most northern locations in the nation, with below-average snow cover in the Southwest.

Most locations on the Hawaiian Islands had above-average precipitation during April with Lihue having its sixth wettest April and Kula its third wettest. On April 14-15, heavy rain fell across Kauai causing major flooding and landslides. According to preliminary data, a rain gauge near Hanalei, on Kauai’s North Shore, reported 49.69 inches of rain in 24 hours, potentially a new national record. It is pending review by the National Climate Extremes Committee.

According to the May 1 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 28.6 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down from 29.4 percent at the beginning of April. Drought conditions improved in California, the Northern Plains and the Southeast. Drought also improved in parts of the Alaskan panhandle. Drought conditions expanded and intensified in the Southwest and Central to Southern Plains. The percent area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing D4 – Exceptional Drought, the worst category, expanded to 2.2 percent, the highest since November 2016. D4 drought conditions stretched from the Southwest to Southern Plains.

Click on a thumbnail graphic below to view a gallery of snowpack data from the NRCS.

Statewide Basin High/Low graph May 13, 2018 via the NRCS.

Yampa and White Basin High/Low graph May 13, 2018 via the NRCS.

South Platte River Basin High/Low graph May 13, 2018 via the NRCS.

San Miguel, Dolores, Animas, and San Juan Basin High/Low graph May 13, 2018 via the NRCS.

Upper Rio Grande River Basin High/Low graph May 13, 2018 via the NRCS.

Laramie and North Platte Basin High/Low graph May 13, 2018 via the NRCS.

Gunnison River Basin High/Low graph May 13, 2018 via the NRCS.

Upper Colorado River Basin High/Low graph May 13, 2018 via the NRCS.

Arkansas River Basin High/Low graph May 13, 2018 via the NRCS.

Statewide basin-filled snowpack map May 14, 2018 via the NRCS.