From The Cortez Journal (Ryan Simonovich):

Birds and fish struggle with less water, but bears benefit from warmer weather

Some animals, such as birds, do not need to drink much water because they metabolize water from the food they eat, said Colorado Parks and Wildlife spokesman Joe Lewandowski.

But drought conditions decrease the moisture in vegetation, which is detrimental to animals’ hydration. This can be problematic for lactating females, for instance, because they need extra water to produce milk.

For this reason, Parks and Wildlife hopes monsoons this summer will bring moisture to the vegetation, creating a larger inventory of food for animals.

The warm spring, which has so far stayed clear of a major freeze, has been beneficial for bears, Lewandowski said.

Last year, there was a late freeze that affected bears’ natural food supply. Bears then came into town to forage in humans’ trash. This year, food such as plants and berries are growing and available for the bears to eat.

Dry years also affect fish habitats. Low river and creek water levels mean fewer places for fish to go. Fish eat bugs, and the more water there is, the more bugs there are. When water is warmer, there is less oxygen available in the water.

At the Durango fish hatchery, Parks and Wildlife is releasing fish into the wild earlier than normal because there is less water available for the hatchery to use.

Species have adapted to different climates for thousands of years, so there is no threat of a mass extinction, Lewandowski said. However, biologists are worried that long-term drought will have harmful effects on wildlife.

From The Denver Post (Bruce Finley):

Peak flows on the Arkansas River apparently happened May 18, more than a month earlier than usual. The water levels peaked at 1,870 cubic feet per second, far below the average 2,500 to 3,000 cfs and have fallen to 1,500 cfs…

A deal has been done with downriver farmers and cities to help the whitewater industry get through difficult years like this one — by setting up a reserve of 10,000 acre-feet of water held in Turquoise Lake, Twin Lakes and Clear Creek Reservoir.

CPW officials this week said they’ve notified agricultural water users and federal Bureau of Reclamation operators of the reservoirs that rafting companies probably will need to draw on that reserve to keep the river flowing at a level no lower than 700 cfs — crucial for boating — through Aug. 15.

“They said they will have the 10,000 ace-feet available,” White said. “That feels great. It is invaluable. It is the difference between having a lousy summer and having a good summer.”

[…]

Earlier high flows on rivers caused by earlier melting of reduced mountain snowpack — which this year measured as low as 40 percent of normal in some areas — exemplify the changes scientists have linked to a buildup of heat-trapping greenhouse gas pollution in the atmosphere.

“Adapting to climate variability is something we are going to have to wrap our heads around in the future,” American Whitewater president Mark Singleton said Friday in an interview. That group represents boaters nationwide and serves as a central source of statistics on matters such as deaths. (Along the Arkansas River since 1986, only 13 rafting deaths on commercial rafting trips were reported, Singleton said, lauding careful state management of the river under a partnership with the federal Bureau of Land Management.)

“These are all fundamental changes in the river systems,” Singleton said. “And if there’s no water in the reservoirs, there’s no river flow. … What we have seen is these really big swings. In all of our climate systems, we are seeing greater variability.”

From Steamboat Today (Tom Ross):

“I think the main stem of the Yampa has peaked,” forecast center senior hydrologist Ashley Nielson said Wednesday. “There is a chance for some rain this weekend, but it would take heavy precipitation over the Yampa and Elk rivers,” to send them to a new level.

That means the Yampa reached its zenith for the season at 12:45 a.m. May 14, when the flow was 2,570 cubic feet per second. If that figure is confirmed, it would be the lowest peak since 2012 when the river topped out at 1,570 cfs on April 27.

From The Minneapolis Star-Tribune (Ron Way):

Lake Superior is big, all right. It and the other Great Lakes contain one-fifth of the whole world’s fresh water and, get this, hold enough to submerge the continental U.S. under 10 feet.

Those far-off onlookers thirst mightily for the Lakes’ 6.5 million billion gallons of fresh water that, to them, just sits there before running off to the ocean. Wasted.

It’s easy for us lake-landers to dismiss such thoughts, but those in the American Southwest are up against a 17-year drought that keeps getting worse. After an unusually warm winter, it’s expected to worsen still more this summer due to a dearth of mountain snow that will again leave Colorado River flow far below normal, with forecasts of dry and very hot weather à la La Niña.

What’s beyond scary is that NASA computer models indicate that the West could be facing a 50-year megadrought, the first such event since long before Europeans even knew North America existed. Moreover, higher temperatures and wind wrought by climate change dry things out and increase demand for irrigation water while at the same time increasing already problematic evaporation rates from reservoirs and canals.

Primary water sources in Arizona, Nevada and Southern California are dangerously low. Benchmarks are the historically low Lake Mead reservoir behind Hoover Dam (built in 1930) and similar low levels of Lake Powell on the upstream end of the Grand Canyon. Las Vegas, which draws 90 percent of its water from Lake Mead, has twice lowered its intake “straw” due to falling levels.

One relief option is desalination of ocean water, but scaling up that technology has proved frustratingly difficult and outrageously expensive. The largest existing plant, at San Diego, provides only 7 percent of that city’s needs.

Another option is to strictly restrict water use, but that’s politically dicey and can’t get much beyond talk.

Then there’s a plan to spend gazillions to capture several of Alaska’s free-flowing rivers with a grand network of dams, canals and tunnels to divert water south to the Colorado basin. It seems that the drought is getting serious enough so that even far-fetched ideas get a look.

So OK, now what?

To desert dwellers, an idea that makes intuitive sense is to pipe Lake Superior water to where it’s “needed.” Such a project would be staggeringly expensive but technically doable; besides, the Great Lakes surely wouldn’t miss, say, 50 billion gallons — would they?

The populace all around the Lakes is rock-solid against shipping any water anywhere, and advancing any diversion plan would set off political warfare.

Or perhaps one should say “renew hostilities.” This story isn’t new. In 2007, New Mexico’s then-Gov. Bill Richardson suggested a Great Lakes diversion when the Western drought was only six years old. Following bloodcurdling protest, fellow Democrat Jennifer Granholm, then Michigan’s governor, told Richardson to zip it. A year later the eight Lakes states, including Minnesota, adopted — and President George W. Bush signed — a compact banning diversions without concurrence of all signatories.

Plus, an international pact gives Canada (along with the federal government in D.C.) a veto over any transfer.

But because the ultimate power rests with Congress and the president, multistate compacts and international accords can be false security. What’s done can be undone, as evidenced by all the undoing from today’s Washington crowd. What’s more, some scholars say the compact could be vulnerable to legal challenge, especially if a national emergency were declared.

A political knockdown would pit the Midwest vs. Westerners accustomed to no-holds-barred combat for water (to the death in the Wild West) and who have tended, when all else failed, to get what they wanted by simply taking it (for example, the lands of indigenous tribes).

Fear the Westerners.

From Utah Public Radio (Kerry Bringhurst):

A group of western water advocates is focused on finding ways for western communities to work together to protect wildlife and the environment. Drew Beckwith is water policy manager with Western Resource Advocates, a team of scientists, lawyers and economists following drought conditions in the west.

Beckwith said when water managers with the Central Arizona Water Project announced they were going to pull water from Lake Powell to address drought problems in their state, managers from other drought-stricken states responded.

“There were some stern letters that were written from folks in Utah, Colorado and Wyoming,” Beckwith said. “That is sort of how the water community polices itself. There is no real legally binding argument that someone did something wrong. It is almost like a peer pressure and shaming.”

Efforts taken by the Bureau of Reclamation, the seven Colorado River Basin states, along with water districts and Mexico are working to conserve water. Beckwith agrees these voluntary efforts help address the decline of water reserved in Lake Mead. This approach has delayed the onset of reductions to water users in Arizona, Nevada, Mexico and California. But he says it is becoming necessary for all players to create cooperative agreements that will protect Lake Mead and Lake Powell if drought conditions persist.

“Let’s not focus on things that are individualistic that only benefit a few people,” he said. “Lots of different uses are important. We need to get everyone’s views to make sure those are all incorporated.”

Reclamation Commissioner Burman would like drought contingency plans from each state to be in place before the end of this year. She is calling on states, tribes, water districts and non-governmental organizations to work together to meet the needs of over 40 million people who depend on reliable water and power from the Colorado River.

On Tuesday Burman announced the Jordan Valley Water Conservancy District in Utah will receive $160,000 to develop a drought contingency plan for its service area in Salt Lake and Utah counties. The district’s service area includes 15 cities and is home to nearly 25 percent of Utah’s population and is expecting rapid population growth due to a healthy economy.

According to the bureau’s Peter Soeth, the district will assemble stakeholders from all sectors to identify projects, actions and partnerships needed to prepare for and reduce water shortages and improve drought resilience for the areas water users.

From The New York Times (Henry Fountain):

“Nobody’s got a whole lot of water,” said David Gensler, the hydrologist for the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, whose job is to manage the river water that is delivered to Mr. Rosales and the others through diversion dams, canals and ditches. “If we use it up early in the season and don’t get any rain further on, the whole thing’s going to crash.”

Parts of the state got some much-needed rain this week, which may help Mr. Gensler extend his irrigation water a bit. But whatever happens this spring and summer, the long-term outlook for the river is clouded by climate change.

The Rio Grande is a classic “feast or famine” river, with a dry year or two typically followed by a couple of wet years that allow for recovery. If warming temperatures brought on by greenhouse gas emissions make wet years less wet and dry years even drier, as scientists anticipate, year-to-year recovery will become more difficult.

“The effect of long-term warming is to make it harder to count on snowmelt runoff in wet times,” said David S. Gutzler, a climate scientist at the University of New Mexico. “And it makes the dry times much harder than they used to be.”

With spring runoff about one-sixth of average and more than 90 percent of New Mexico in severe to exceptional drought, conditions here are extreme. Even in wetter years long stretches of the riverbed eventually dry as water is diverted to farmers, but this year the drying began a couple of months earlier than usual. Some people are concerned that it may dry as far as Albuquerque, 75 miles north.

But the state of the Rio Grande reflects a broader trend in the West, where warming temperatures are reducing snowpack and river flows.

A study last year of the Colorado River, which provides water to 40 million people and is far bigger than the Rio Grande, found that flows from 2000 to 2014 were nearly 20 percent below the 20th century average, with about a third of the reduction attributable to human-caused warming. The study suggested that if climate change continued unabated, human-induced warming could eventually reduce Colorado flows by at least an additional one-third this century.

“Both of these rivers are poster children for what climate change is doing to the Southwest,” said Jonathan T. Overpeck, dean of the School for Environment and Sustainability at the University of Michigan and an author of the Colorado study.

While both the Colorado and the Rio Grande are affected by warming, Dr. Overpeck said, the Rio Grande has also been hurt by declines in winter precipitation. “It’s a one-two punch,” he said.

Last year, though, was a wet one on the Rio Grande, with a strong snowpack in the winter of 2016-17 that allowed the conservancy district to store water in upstream reservoirs. Using that water now should help Mr. Gensler keep the irrigation taps turned for several months.

“In some ways I’m more concerned about 2019 than 2018,” he said. “There’s a possibility we’re going to drain every drop this year, and go into next year with nothing.”

Temperatures in the Southwest increased by nearly two degrees Fahrenheit (one degree Celsius) from 1901 to 2010, and some climate models forecast a total rise of six degrees or more by the end of this century. As elsewhere in the West, warmer temperatures in winter mean that more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow in the San Juan and Sangre de Cristo mountains that feed the Rio Grande.

Dr. Gutzler said spring temperatures have an impact, too, with warmer air causing more snow to turn to vapor and essentially disappear. A longer and warmer growing season also has an effect, Dr. Overpeck said, as plants take up more water, further reducing stream flows.

Running for nearly 1,900 miles, mostly through arid lands, the Rio Grande is one of the longest rivers in the United States. It is also one of the most managed, having been controlled by dams and other structures for most of the last century. But use of the river for irrigation dates back much further: For hundreds of years its water nourished the crops of native Puebloan people and Spanish colonizers.

In a typical year most water in the upper Rio Grande is diverted for irrigation. (Albuquerque, by far the state’s largest city, gets its drinking water from groundwater wells and from a project that diverts water from the Colorado River basin through a tunnel under the Continental Divide.)

By law, some Rio Grande water must also be sent further downstream, to a reservoir that serves farmers in southern New Mexico and Texas. That section of the river, which forms the border with Mexico and empties into the Gulf of Mexico, has its own severe problems, and relies on a Mexican tributary for most of its water.

As the river dries, crews from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service spring into action, working to rescue the Rio Grande silvery minnow, a federally protected endangered species that used to thrive along the full length of the river but now is found only in the upper reaches.

Crews have been rescuing the small fish most springs and summers for about 20 years, running nets through pools that remain as the river dries up and delivering the fish to wetter areas upstream.

Normally the crews would start this work in June, said Thomas P. Archdeacon, a Fish and Wildlife biologist who heads the minnow rescue operation. This year, he said, they made their first rescue on April 2 and have moved northward as stretches of the river dried up.

“I look at it as an umbrella species,” he said of the minnow. “Because it has these federal protections, it’s protecting basically everything along the river.” The Rio Grande is still lined with willows, Russian olive and other vegetation along its banks, and together with the irrigated farmland forms a long, narrow oasis amid an otherwise parched brown landscape.

But much of the riverbed itself is as dry as a bone…

who farms 650 acres near San Antonio, has wells to pump groundwater onto his fields should the irrigation canals dry up and the rains not materialize. “I’m droughtproof,” he said. “When we plant in the spring we don’t even take into consideration how much snowpack or surface water there’s going to be.”

North of Albuquerque, Derrick J. Lente, a member of the Sandia Pueblo, cultivates 150 acres, some of which is pasturage for cows that he raises. Under water laws, farmers in the pueblos would be among the last to lose water.

His ancestors have farmed in this region for hundreds of years, through wet times and dry. But Mr. Lente, who is also a state legislator, recognizes that there is long-term trouble ahead. His father and uncles, who have been farming far longer than him, have seen changes.

“This is the worst they’ve seen it in their lives,” he said. “The times are changing to where it’s hotter.”

Mr. Lente does not have irrigation wells on his farm, but he has made improvements to conserve water, lining some of his irrigation ditches and replacing another with a tunnel.

“I never built it with the idea we won’t ever have water,” he said. “I don’t want to think of that time, I really don’t. We’d have to make some hard decisions.”

From The Albuquerque Journal (Ollie Reed Jr.):

A map released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s drought monitor shows that more than 20 percent of New Mexico – scattered areas in the northern part of the state – is in exceptional drought, the most serious category, and more than 99 percent of the state is in some kind of drought. And the dropping of water levels in the Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs forced a restriction on storing additional water in northern New Mexico reservoirs.

To make things grimmer, Fontenot said Thursday that the outlook for the next eight to 14 days is hot and dry.

There is a silvery lining, however. David Gensler, water operations manager for the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, said the sudden increase in Rio Grande flows caused by the rain this week stimulated spawning among the endangered silvery minnow, as indicated by the number of minnow eggs collected in surveys…

Reservoirs down

“Twenty percent of the state in exceptional drought is pretty high,” Fontenot said. He said New Mexico has not had that degree of exceptional drought since August 2013. But it has been even worse in the past. In a drought that lasted from May 2011 to May 2012, as much as 49 percent of New Mexico was in that category.

Some parts of New Mexico got a lot of rain from a system that moved into the state Monday and lingered into Thursday. A thunderstorm Monday broke a 54-day streak without measurable precipitation in Albuquerque. Albuquerque got 0.12 inch that day, Clayton 0.46, Roswell 0.51, Tucumcari 1.10 inches and Clovis 1.21.

Some areas got more rain in the succeeding days. Fontenot said that on Wednesday up to 6 inches of rain fell within six hours along U.S. 84 in San Miguel and Guadalupe counties…

This week’s rain, as vigorous as it was in some areas, did not stop the water levels in the Elephant Butte Reservoir, five miles north of Truth and Consequences, and Caballo Reservoir, 16 miles south of TorC, from dropping low enough to trigger a Rio Grande Compact provision prohibiting the storage of additional water in upstream reservoirs…

The Conservancy District’s Gensler said the total water in Elephant Butte and Caballo dropped below 400,000 acre-feet Sunday, putting the Article VII restriction into effect for the first time since early this year. An acre-foot is the amount of water necessary to cover an acre to a depth of 1 foot.

On Thursday, combined water in the two reservoirs was at about 394,000 acre-feet, Gensler said…

OK for now

Gensler said the Article VII restriction would probably not change much for the irrigators on the 70,000 acres of cropland served by the Conservancy District.

“Opportunities for storage are pretty rare during the summertime anyway,” he said. And he noted that even though Article VII restricts the storage of additional water, it does not prohibit the release of water that had already been in storage. He said that adds up to 107,000 acre-feet in El Vado, Heron and Abiquiu…

Gensler said, however, that things could get really bad if the state is still under the Article VII restriction next spring.

From NIDiS:

For a written summary of the webinar, please click here.

Here’s the release from Senator Thune’s office:

“I can’t say it enough – no one knows what’s needed to improve agriculture policy more than the farmers and ranchers who work the land and raise livestock in South Dakota.”

U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee and a longtime member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, today introduced the Improved Soil Moisture and Precipitation Monitoring Act of 2018, legislation that would provide tools and direction to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to help improve the accuracy of the U.S. Drought Monitor and require the coordination of USDA agencies that use precipitation data to determine livestock grazing loss assistance and stocking rates. He also introduced legislation to strengthen and improve the Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) of the National Weather Service, of which the Commerce Committee has jurisdiction, in order to support state-coordinated programs that provide data for the Drought Monitor and other weather programs. The COOP system is the nation’s largest and oldest weather network and is entirely run by volunteers. Thune introduced these bills after hearing directly from several concerned ranchers at an agriculture roundtable event that he hosted in Rapid City in April 2018.

“South Dakota farmers and ranchers are familiar with working through extreme weather conditions, especially drought,” said Thune. “And after the 2016 and 2017 drought conditions in much of Western South Dakota, some of them would probably say they’re all too familiar with it and are very concerned about accurate precipitation measurement. I recently heard some of those concerns firsthand, which is what led to the development of this legislation. Together, I’m hopeful that we can make the Drought Monitor a far more effective and efficient tool and, at the same time, ensure USDA programs are using accurate and consistent data in administering programs that are designed to help the agriculture community.

“I can’t say it enough – no one knows what’s needed to improve agriculture policy more than the farmers and ranchers who work the land and raise livestock in South Dakota. I’m thankful for everything they do for our communities and state and can say with certainty that this is not the first, nor will it be the last piece of legislation that will move through the halls of Congress thanks to their suggestions and input.”

Thune’s Improved Soil Moisture and Precipitation Monitoring Act would:

Grant the secretary of agriculture the discretion to improve soil moisture monitoring by increasing the number of monitoring stations or by utilizing other appropriate cost-effective soil moisture measuring devices;

Increase the number of precipitation and soil moisture monitoring stations in any area that has experienced extreme or exceptional drought for any six month period since the beginning of 2016, including South Dakota, and authorizes a $5 million per year appropriation to do so;

Require USDA to develop standards to integrate data from citizen scientists and to collect soil moisture data; and

Require USDA agencies to use consistent precipitation monitoring data and drought assessment across the programs that USDA administers.

Thune has heard a number of concerns with respect to the accuracy of the Drought Monitor, especially given its use in determining grazing disaster assistance through programs administered by the Farm Service Agency. Among these concerns is a frustration that USDA does not fully utilize data gathered by existing reporting stations to determine indemnities for insured grazing losses under the Pasture, Rangeland, Forage Insurance Program that is administered by the Risk Management Agency.

Ranchers have also raised concerns about USDA’s differing rainfall and drought determinations during last summer’s drought that plagued Western South Dakota for several months. For example, the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) determined that some federal grazing lands were too dry and that stocking rates needed to be reduced on USFS grasslands. At the same time, the Drought Monitor classified the same area as not dry enough for ranchers to be eligible for Livestock Forage Program assistance. Thune’s legislation is aimed at addressing these and other concerns.

Click on a thumbnail graphic below to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor.

US Drought Monitor May 22, 2018.

West Drought Monitor May 22, 2018.

Colorado Drought Monitor May 22, 2018.

Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

The active weather pattern persisted across most of the nation, though unfavorably dry, hot weather lingered over parts of the South and Southwest. During the 7-day period ending Tuesday morning, areas of heavy to excessive rainfall provided widespread drought relief across the central and southern Atlantic Coast States and from Texas northward into Montana and the Dakotas. Conversely, short-term dryness intensified along the central Gulf Coast, while worsening drought conditions were noted in portions of Arizona and Oregon. Likewise, short-term dryness continued to develop in parts of New England. Please note the wet weather pattern continued through the week; any rain that fell after 12z Tuesday (8 a.m., EDT) will be incorporated into the following week’s drought assessment…

High Plains

The overall trend toward improving conditions in the south contrasting with increasingly dry weather in the far north continued, though some northerly areas benefited from locally heavy rain. In southern Kansas, another week with moderate to locally heavy showers (1-3 inches, as high as 3.72 inches in Longton, KS) led to widespread reductions of drought intensity and coverage. Nevertheless, 6-month precipitation in the state’s lingering Extreme Drought (D3) was less than half of normal, while the Exceptional Drought (D4) in the state’s southwestern corner stood at less than one third of normal over the same time period. Moderate to heavy rainfall (locally more than 3 inches) in northeastern Colorado likewise trimmed the coverage of Abnormal Dryness (D0). In south-central Nebraska and north-central Kansas, heavy rain (2-3 inches; Phillipsburg, KS, reported 3.95 inches) yielded a corresponding reduction of D0. In southeastern Nebraska, increasingly dry conditions over the past 90 days (40-60 percent of normal) led to a modest increase of Moderate Drought (D1) southwest of Lincoln. Farther north, sharply wetter conditions between Bismarck, ND, and Aberdeen, SD, (6.17 inches in Java, SD) resulted in a considerable reduction of D0. Beneficial rain (1-2 inches) was also reported in northeastern Montana, where D0 was reduced accordingly. Meanwhile, D1 and D2 were increased somewhat in North Dakota from Bismarck to the Canadian border, where 60-day rainfall shortfalls (locally less than 30 percent of normal) have added to the region’s lingering long-term drought…

West

Outside of beneficial rain in eastern-most portions of the region, lackluster water-year precipitation and unusual warmth have led to increasing drought despite the cool wet season having drawn to a close. Beneficial rain was reported during the period in northeastern portions of Montana and Colorado, resulting in reductions of Abnormal Dryness (D0) and as well as Moderate (D1) and Severe (D2) Drought. However, the overarching theme in the West continued to be the ongoing and intensifying drought in the lower Four Corners as well as the interior Northwest. In the latter region, Moderate and Severe Drought (D1-D2) were expanded over much of Oregon’s Harney Basin to reflect a sub-par water year (50-75 percent-of-normal precipitation, or 10-25th percentile) as well as protracted dryness over the past 60 days (less than half of normal). Farther south, Extreme (D3) and Exceptional (D4) Drought were expanded over Arizona. The numbers from the Four Corners Region as a whole tell a dire story, with water-year precipitation totaling a meager 10 to 30 percent of normal in the hardest-hit areas; the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which puts these values in a drought-intensity equivalent, are D3- and D4-equivalent over much of central and northeastern Arizona. A sub-par snowpack and above-normal temperatures have left little water available through snowmelt. Furthermore, the satellite-derived Vegetation Health Index (VHI) — which incorporates both vegetation greenness and thermal stress — shows extremely poor conditions over most of Arizona as well as neighboring portions of southern California and southern New Mexico. This region will be in need of a robust Southwest Monsoon beginning in early July to help offset the impacts brought on by this season’s Extreme to Exceptional Drought in the lower Four Corners Region…

Looking Ahead

An active pattern will continue, with two significant areas of wet weather over the next 5 days. Forecast data continues to show a tropical or subtropical system developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and lifting slowly northward over the Memorial Day holiday weekend; if this were to verify, the potential exists for another round of heavy to excessive rain (2-6 inches, possibly more) over the lower Southeast. Meanwhile, a pair of slow-moving storms system will produce moderate to heavy rain (1-4 inches) from the northern Rockies eastward across northern portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front will trigger showers over the western Corn Belt and Mississippi Valley. Despite the continuation of a generally active weather pattern, the Southwest will remain unfavorably dry. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for May 29 – June 2 calls for below-normal rainfall over the Northwest and from Texas and the southern High Plains into the Great Lakes and New England. In contrast, wetter-than-normal conditions are expected from the northern Great Basin into northern portions of the Rockies and Great Plains, with a second higher-likelihood area of above-normal rainfall over the southeastern quarter of the nation. Abnormal warmth is expected over most of the nation save for near-normal temperatures in the aforementioned rainy and cloudy Southeast.

From the Kiowa County Press (Chris Sorensen):

Despite the start of spring thunderstorms, Colorado’s drought situation continued to deteriorate. One-third of the state is in the two worst categories of drought.

Some areas showed improvements, with the northeast and north central areas continuing to lead that trend as the area benefitted from moderate to heavy rain, with some locations receiving up to three inches of rain.

Morgan county moved into drought-free conditions, while parts of Elbert, Lincoln, Cheyenne and Kiowa counties shifted to moderate drought from severe. Northern Douglas county is now abnormally dry, an improvement from moderate drought last week.

Extreme drought expanded northward over the southeast plains to cover the remainder of Otero and most of Bent county. Extreme conditions expanded into Crowley county, as well as a larger part of Pueblo county. Fremont and El Paso counties saw severe drought overtake areas previously in moderate conditions.

Minor changes were observed in northwest Colorado.

Overall, more than one-fifth of the state is drought-free, a slight improvement over the previous week. Abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions also decreased slightly to about 14 percent each. Moderate drought dropped to about 17 percent of the state, while extreme drought increased to nearly 26 percent, both changing roughly three percent over the prior report. Exceptional drought was steady at about eight percent.

One year ago, 94 percent of Colorado was drought-free, while about six percent was abnormally dry.

From The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (Gary Harmon):

The Colorado River at Cameo hit its peak May 15 with flows of 8,500 cubic feet per second.

The average seasonal peak for the Cameo gauge is 13,600 cfs and it usually takes until June 9 to hit that high-water mark.

“So not only is our seasonal peak below the average, it occurred over three weeks early and did not even reach the average flow on a day that is typically three weeks before the average seasonal peak date,” Knight said…

Fontanelle Reservoir, which can hold 345,000 acre-feet of water, was 65 percent full on Wednesday and Flaming Gorge, which can hold back 357,000 acre-feet, was 87 percent full.

Blue Mesa Reservoir, the largest body of water in Colorado with a potential volume of 830,000 acre-feet, was 61 percent full.

Grand Valley water agencies already are asking consumers for voluntary reductions as they look forward to a long, dry summer.

From Arizona Public Media (Anthony Perkins):

Steven Miranda is fire staff officer for the Coronado National Forest. He says drought is bringing the threat of wildfires from the country to the city.

“I would not say it could never happen,” said Miranda. “But when you look at some of the other places, like Colorado a couple of years ago, when things get in alignment, it’s very challenging.”

Colorado suffered two straight years of deadly fire seasons in 2012 and 2013. In each case, more than 250,000 acres burned, and hundreds of homes were lost. More than three-quarters of Colorado baked under drought conditions just ahead of the wildfires.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s forecast for Colorado, Arizona, Utah and New Mexico for 2018 is warning of a similar setup. U.S. drought experts have categorized the region’s outlook as “exceptional,” and not in a good way. “Exceptional” is the worst drought condition. The forecast is leaving farmers, ranchers and water planners preparing for a tougher situation than last year, when only a fraction of the region was experiencing this much drought.

Forestry officials are trying to get in front of wildfire danger. This week, they started closing parts of three national forests: Apache-Sitgreaves, Coconino and Tonto…

Southern Arizona received some rainfall in the winter months, but forecasters maintain it wasn’t enough. The Arizona Department of Water Resources reported last winter was the driest on record.

Arizona Game and Fish Department officer Karen Klima says the lack of moisture is significant for the state’s wildlife. She says desert wildlife can adapt to dry conditions, but animals are not accustomed to going through an entire season with little water.

“Normally, when we have our monsoon precipitation, there are areas where water collects, and wildlife can use those areas in the drier months,” according to Klima. “We didn’t have that this year, so now they are really working down into areas where we have water, into areas where people have water out. People with fountains may see wildlife coming into their yard.”

Klima says residents living near forest land shouldn’t be surprised to see unexpected visitors seeking to quench their thirst.

From The Associated Press via Colorado Public Radio:

Rivers are drying up, popular mountain recreation spots are closing and water restrictions are in full swing as a persistent drought intensifies its grip on pockets of the American Southwest.

Climatologists and other experts are scheduled Wednesday to provide an update on the situation in the Four Corners region — where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah meet.

The area is dealing with exceptional drought — the worst category. That has left farmers, ranchers and water planners bracing for a much different situation than just a year ago when only a fraction of the region was experiencing low levels of dryness.

“We face an overwhelming risk on the system, and the time for action is now,” Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Brenda Burman said Tuesday. She spoke before the Imperial Irrigation District in Southern California, one of the biggest single users of the Colorado River.

The drought has hit the Colorado River hard. Forecasters say the river will carry only about 43 percent of its average amount of water this year into Lake Powell, one of two big reservoirs on the system.

There’s a 52 percent chance that Mexico and the U.S. states of Arizona and Nevada will take a mandatory cut in their share of water in 2020 under the agreements governing the river, forecasters have said.

In New Mexico, stretches of the Rio Grande — another of North America’s longest rivers — have already gone dry as federal biologists have been forced to scoop up as many endangered Rio Grande silvery minnows as possible so they can be moved upstream.

The river this summer is expected to dry as far north as Albuquerque, New Mexico’s most populous city. The area saw its first major dose of rain Tuesday, bringing an end to a 54-day dry spell. It wasn’t enough to make up for months without meaningful precipitation.

From the New Mexico Political Report (Laura Paskus):

On Sunday, New Mexico entered into Article VII restrictions as storage in Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs dropped below 400,000 acre-feet. Under Article VII of the Rio Grande Compact, that means Colorado and New Mexico can’t store water in any upstream reservoirs built after 1929.

In the Rio Grande watershed, reservoirs capture and store native Rio Grande water and water piped from northwestern New Mexico via the San Juan-Chama Project. Each drop is earmarked for particular users and managed under the legal strictures of the compact. Elephant Butte and Caballo reservoirs, for example, hold Rio Grande Project water for users in southern New Mexico and Texas. Heron, El Vado and Abiquiu reservoirs on the Chama River store water for cities like Albuquerque and Santa Fe, farmers and the six Middle Rio Grande pueblos. Cochiti Reservoir stores some San Juan-Chama water, but was built for recreation and flood control purposes.

Entering into Article VII restrictions wasn’t a surprise. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation officials have been warning since earlier this year that it would happen, due to the low snowpack and low spring runoff.

“Article VII restrictions are aimed at protecting the water supply of the Rio Grande Project,” explained Reclamation spokeswoman Mary Carlson. “However, with little to no runoff remaining upstream and the most optimistic [National Resources Conservation Service] forecast predicting zero inflow into Elephant Butte Reservoir, conditions on the project are unlikely to change much even with these restrictions.”

The issue merits a close eye given the state’s drought conditions and an interstate lawsuit over the waters of the Rio Grande. Currently, New Mexico is being sued in the U.S. Supreme Court by Texas and the federal government. The two parties allege that by allowing farmers in southern New Mexico to pump groundwater from near the Rio Grande, New Mexico failed for decades to send its legal share of water downstream.

Monsoon storms might provide some relief on the Rio Grande, but water from just one storm, or even several, can’t come close to making up the deficit. Speaking at a water conference last week, Bruce Thomson explained that flows in the Rio Grande are dominated by snowpack and receive little benefit from monsoons.

“Summer precipitation is very nice, but in terms of actual runoff, there is very little actual contribution,” said Thomson, professor emeritus and research professor at the University of New Mexico’s Department of Civil Engineering.

Pulse of water

By the time New Mexico entered into Article VII restrictions on May 20, about 20 miles were already dry through the Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge, extending upstream through San Antonio and toward Socorro. Drying began in early April, months earlier than in typical years.

Carlson said water managers and biologists from Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, the six Middle Rio Grande pueblos and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service coordinate daily on river flows.

“We are working closely with our partners who have already created two small operational pulses to help the Rio Grande silvery minnow to spawn,” she said. “The most recent appears to have been successful based on early egg detection in the Middle Rio Grande.” She added that the federal government continues efforts to lease all available San Juan-Chama Project water to supplement Rio Grande flows, as well.

Combined with a planned release of water at the Isleta Diversion Dam, she said, water from Monday’s storm created a pulse that will help silvery minnows spawn. Crews collect the eggs, then bring them to hatcheries, where the fish are raised and eventually released back into the river.

As for farmers in the Middle Rio Grande, hydrologist David Gensler says the storage restrictions shouldn’t affect deliveries. Gensler works for the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, which delivers water to farmers from Cochiti to south of Socorro.

Article VII will prevent them from storing water, he said, but it’s a “moot point.”

“Mainstem flows out of Colorado have been so low that we have been releasing from storage for the last 3 weeks just to meet [Middle Rio Grande] demand,” he wrote in an email prior to the official Article VII designation. “The runoff has come and gone, and there isn’t enough to store.”

The restrictions could affect the district later in the summer.

“Should we have a wet summer, and flows at La Puente do come up, then we will be unable to store excess water,” he said. La Puente is on the Chama River, above El Vado Dam. “That would be disappointing, but for the most part storing water in the summer is rare anyway.”

From The Fence Post (Amy Hadachek):

There are possible sources for rain opportunities in these spring/summer months, including anticipated periodic areas of low pressure and the dryline boundary (of instability) on the Plains, and possible rains if the El Nino sets up this summer, and then — the monsoonal flow (of seasonal reversal) up into the southern Rockies, among other storm-inducing features. Meanwhile, until the next rainfall, here’s the current drought impact.

SOUTHWEST COLORADO

For starters, extreme southwest Colorado including Durango are in exceptional drought, according to the Drought Monitor. Areas further north, including Grand Junction are in severe drought. Then further north into Steamboat Springs is classified as “abnormally dry.”

“So far this year, Durango has received just 1.39 inches of precipitation. Normal for this date is 5.21 inches, said Scott Stearns, meteorologist intern at the National Weather Service, Grand Junction, Colo. “The lowest ever was 0.81 inches in 2002, so this year isn’t the worst we’ve ever seen, but it’s close.” The Grand Junction NWS forecast area covers from the Continential Divide near Vail and Aspen, west into eastern Utah.

Grand Junction so far this year has received 2.91 inches of precipitation. Normal is 3.48 inches. The lowest ever received in Grand Junction was 0.77 inches. There’s potentially good news for southwest Colorado. “Some signals we’re seeing indicate the monsoonal moisture may come into our area a week or two earlier than normal, which is a good sign, although not a guarantee,” Stearns said.

“Western Colorado is favored to receive above normal precipitation, which is a change from last month’s outlook for June-July-August,” said Matthew Rosencrans, head of forecast operations, Climate Prediction Center, as he analyzed the latest 90-day outlook.

SOUTHEAST COLORADO

There’s also some hope for summertime rainfall in southeast Colorado, which is strongly needed to bust the current drought.

“The drought is bad,” said Service Hydrologist Tony Anderson at the National Weather Service in Pueblo, Colo. “If we go back to Oct. 1, snow accumulation has been at or near historic lows in the Arkansas River Basin and Rio Grand Basin. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, central and southeast Colorado have moderate to extreme drought conditions. The southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains are experiencing exceptional drought, which is the worst category.”

Since Oct. 1, (when precipitation really dropped off, also called the “Water Year”) Colorado Springs has received 2.63 inches of precipitation. Average for this time of year is 4.64 inches. Pueblo has received 1.89 inches, compared with the average 4.53 inches.

“The Climate Prediction Center indicates southeast Colorado is moving out of this drier pattern and closer to near-normal. A decent monsoon is indicated for the western Colorado/Utah area, but it’s highly variable regarding who gets rain and where thunderstorms set up each day,” Anderson said. “The CPC Drought Outlook indicates the drought may persist, but shows improvement mid-to late-summer.”

COLORADO LIVESTOCK

A Colorado Task Force overseeing Conservation Reserve Program and fire declarations, met on May 16, noting that because Colorado is a state with federally managed land, some decisions about when to turn cattle out, when to come off the land, when to graze or not, are actually out of the hands of producers, and are related to the environment.

Executive Vice President Terry Fankhauser of the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association told The Fence Post, some stocking rate reductions are taking place in southwestern Colorado.

“So, we have producers who are moving cattle to market early and are going ahead and selling because they’re concerned, if the drought persists they’d have to sell early, and they want to do it before cattle prices could possibly slip,” he said.

He also said that if the drought continues into the summer without much rain, the U.S. Forest Service would likely remove cattle from the federal lands to preserve adequate forage for wildlife.

“This would result in livestock producers finding alternative forage, which may not be available, or could be expensive to find and buy hay,” Fankhauser said.

He was quick to note this decision isn’t affecting the majority, and that many producers are optimistic and believe they’ll be able to push through this. “This thinking is probably appropriate, because after de-stocking, then the cost of re-stocking, as we learned in the 2012 period, can be very costly. We have (cattle association) members from southeast Colorado who have not yet recovered from from de-stocking in 2002 and 2003 and then re-stocking,” he said. Fankhauser said the cow price doubled following that drought.

“I believe that any de-stocking is a personal decision, and so, we work through issues and forecasting with producers so they’ll have ideas to bounce off about how their business is structured. You also have to live through feeding your family,” Fankhauser said. So, they only make recommendations, not decisions.

Some producers, and sale barns in southwest Colorado are having more cow runs than usual for this time of year.

“Remember, not all cattle can be raised at 8,000 feet so you can’t take a Kansas cow and bring it to Colorado and expect each one to survive in the mountains,” Fankhauser said. “A lot of these mountain ranches raise amongst themselves.”

Producers have been adding in oats to supplement alfalfa, which they’ll use for forage/silage to get some value. Fankhauser said there will be a market for hay, which doubled in price this past winter.

The southern half of Colorado is expected to make it through the summer with some irrigation water. “But that area looks like autumn right now; there’s been very little snowpack,” Fankhauser said. “The effect will be anyone down river, who counts on that snowpack.”

“A short-term drought is not going to put someone out of business,” Fankhauser said. “In a longer term drought, there’s stress on families, and if someone is emotionally struggling, we have a Crisis Hotline.”

As Agriculture Commissioner Don Brown recommends on the following website, “The agricultural economic crisis is real. The resulting stress is real. Let’s talk about it.” Call the hotline at (844) 493-TALK or text TALK to 38255 or go to https://www.colorado.gov/pacific/agmain/ag-financial-crisis.

“We think of ranchers as tough men and women, and they are but they’re human too,” Fankhauser said. “We hope this will be a short-term drought.”

SOUTHWEST KANSAS

“The drought has hit extremely hard here,” said southwest Kansas dryland farmers Marieta and Tom Hauser, who farm milo and wheat, and also planted some dryland corn last year for the first time on their farm in Ulysses, Kan. “We had some decent moisture last year, and now we’re right back in it,”

They’ll plant more this year, and are hopeful.

“We hope and pray we get enough rain to bring it up,” said Marieta Hauser, also the director of the Grant County, Kansas Chamber of Commerce, and on the Kansas Farm Bureau board of directors. “Also, the wheat is short this year and thin, but with a little moisture we could have a somewhat decent crop,”

The couple got almost three-fourths of an inch of rain (0.70) a couple of weeks ago, which was the first measurable moisture since October. “People here talk about the Grant County split; storms will rain north and south of us,” she said. “You watch it come, then it doesn’t materialize.”

As the chamber director, Hauser is also concerned that a drought hurts their retail businesses when people don’t have money to spend downtown.

“We also battled the fires and some of our CRP grass caught on fire when a train passing produced a spark, catching dry weeds alongside the track.”

Wildfires burned 30 minutes south and west of Ulysses.

KANSAS COUNTIES

Kansas Gov. Jeff Colyer, MD, issued an executive order March 13, 2018, declaring drought in all 105 Kansas counties due to below-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures. Twenty-eight counties are classified in emergency status from central Kansas into southern Kansas and southwest Kansas. Twenty-nine counties in central, western Kansas and the east/central parts of the state are in a warning status, and 48 Kansas counties are in a watch status which includes the rest of the state: north/central, northwest, eastern and southeast Kansas.

The complete national map shows the 2018 Secretarial Drought Declarations with extreme drought conditions from central and southern Kansas into all of Oklahoma, south into northwest Texas, then west into southeast and southwest Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and Utah.

SOUTHWEST KANSAS LIVESTOCK

Right in the heart of southwest Kansas’ hardest hit drought area, David Clawson of Englewood, Kan., the 2017 president of the Kansas Livestock Association said the drought has gotten worse.

“We’re still supplementing on grass,” said Clawson, who has a cow/calf operation. “Livestock still come to our pickups for protein supplements, which tells you the grass doesn’t have enough to feed. It’s greening up, but we haven’t had enough moisture for growth, My neighbors are all in the same boat. We’re anxiously waiting to see if we get enough moisture to recover.”

Over the past 60 days, Clawson has been selling cows. “We’re de-stocking to just hold onto the best cows we can,” he said. “We also went through this in 2011 and 2012 so experience makes it a little easier to deal with. It’s just part of a planned program to give the grass a chance to recover.”

Just to their south, in Oklahoma, Clawson’s neighbors are in the drought area and have had to fight wildfires. “It’s just trying to green-up there,” he said. “We need a few inches of rain spread out over a couple of weeks. We got one of the best showers last night (May 15, with rainfall between 0.40 to 0.80 of an inch) and that’s encouraging, but we need much more.”

NEBRASKA

There are some areas that are now abnormally dry or beginning drought particularly in southern Nebraska, from Omaha westward to the area just east of McCook and then southward. However, an extension agent has some uplifting news.

“We are on the dry side. But one positive aspect, we had enough moisture for planting, and we got good stands,” said Randy Pryor, Nebraska Extension educator/resident in Saline County. “That is, unless you till the ground. We have people who till the ground but had to run pivots this season. However, on the other side of the coin, farmers were able to plant areas that routinely you just cannot plant because they’re usually too muddy,”

Also, in Jefferson and Saline Counties, there wasn’t the “flush of growth” in May that they typically get in cool-season pastures. “We were behind in April because of temperature, and then a growth in May in pastures,” Pryor said. “But, there’s going to have to be timely rains if we’re going to have a decent corn crop. We don’t have a full soil profile of moisture like we are used to in southeast Nebraska. Parts of Jefferson, Gage and Pawnee counties had some good rains, but you still have the ‘have nots.'”

Normally, those Nebraska counties expect an average of 4 1/2 inches of rain in May, which is the highest precipitation month on average in southeast Nebraska. However, official recordings in Saline County, for example in Crete official recorders received 0.41 of an inch, Friend 0.17, and the town of Western 0.93.

Pryor said in southeast Nebraska, they’re used to starting with a full profile of moisture on their silty, clay loam soils, which can mean 8-inches of water 4-feet deep, half of which is readily available for the crop. “Then, in dryland farming, you can figure on 6-feet deep, which would be 6-inches crop available water. We’re more used to that, which gives you resiliency in those times when you don’t have rains in the summer and gets you through a summer dry spell, but this is different when we’re starting out this way. For soybeans, our main concern comes in August to receive timely rainfall.”

Meanwhile, Pryor said Nebraska hay prices have escalated and are almost double, and there’s a drought to the south. “A local producer recently had a third cutting that went for $150 (for a big round) bale.”

Many pastures in these dry areas of southern Nebraska are heavily dependent on cool-season grasses, primarily bluegrass and brome grass.

“The challenge we’re starting to face pretty critically is that unless these grasses get some good growing moisture before Memorial Day, we’re likely to be short of pasture for the rest of the year. Once we get into June, July and especially August, the heat prevents them from growing very well, even when they have a lot of moisture,” said Bruce Anderson, Ph.D., University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extensive forage specialist.

WYOMING

The director of the Wyoming Cattlemen’s Association said that Wyoming is not in a drought. “We’re in pretty good shape,” said William Doenz.

There are, however, abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions reported over southwest Wyoming, and the next one to two weeks are forecast to be warmer than average. But there’s hope on the horizon.

“During these next couple of weeks, there are slightly wetter than average conditions expected, with an active weather pattern of periodic showers,” said Senior Meteorologist Mike Jamski at the National Weather Service in Cheyenne, Wyo.

Keeping a positive outlook can be challenging, but several folks believe it’s a choice.

“The life we’ve decided to live in — agriculture,” Clawson said, “We’ve just gotta have faith.”

“The weather cycles, you go through dry periods, and then there’s rain,” Hauser said. “So we keep at it.”

From WesternSlopeNow.com (Marcus Beasley):

The snowpack up in the mountains, which was below average for most places this year, is melting quickly…

A drought isn’t just affected by the lack of precipitation, being abnormally warm can have an effect on the drought as well. The drought and low snowpack will have an affect our summer water supply…

“Being in a drought now and having less snowpack now means that there will be less water for us as we go into the summer.”

The drought we’re currently in could also have long term effects if we’re dry again next year.

“If we start to continue to be dry and move into a year and a half to two years. that’s where it can really impact us, so it’s good to start conserving water now and to be thinking about that, conserve the water that we have so we can think about the future in case we don’t get those real good rains this summer that help us out or if the snowpack is low enoughnext year it could make it worse for the next year.”

Hopefully this summer brings us some much needed rain.

From The Vail Daily (Scott Miller):

Local rivers seem to have hit peak flows. That isn’t good.

The Colorado River at Dotsero hit its peak seasonal flow Tuesday, May 15. That peak was just more than 3,000 cubic feet per second. The median figure for that date — based on 77 years of data — is about 5,000 cubic feet per second.

This year’s May streamflows aren’t the lowest ever recorded, but the news isn’t good. Still, local water supplies and recreation will survive for the season.

At Minturn Anglers, guide Alex Garnier said fishing on the Eagle River has been good so far this season. The water is clearer than usual, and the flows are low enough to fish in a number of spots…

While the Colorado River has probably hit its seasonal peak, there could be some spikes to come on Gore Creek and the Eagle River.

In an email, Eagle River Water & Sanitation District Communications and Public Affairs Manager Diane Johnson wrote that a string of warm days could accelerate snowmelt in the upper reaches of Gore Creek and the Eagle River. That more-rapid snowmelt could spike flows above current peaks. Those peaks are now running ahead of seasonal medians.

No one wants the snow to come off any faster, though, since snowpack makes up a major portion of the district’s water storage.

“If it stays a little cooler we get to keep (runoff) flowing a little longer,” Johnson wrote.

Click here to read the current assessment from the Colorado Climate Center. Click here to go to the NIDIS website hosted by the Colorado Climate Center.

From 9News.com (Jordan Chavez):

“Snowpack in the South Platte collection system… is well below average,” said Travis Thompson, a spokesperson for Denver Water.

The other half of Denver Water’s supply comes from the Colorado River Basin which also isn’t running at the level it usually does. The river’s water flows have already peaked, according to the National Weather Service.

Colorado Water Trust told 9NEWS this is extremely early.

“It looked like a very unusual year,” said Andy Schultheiss, Colorado Water Trust’s executive director. “It was a La Nina year and a lot of storms passed to our north. It was looking bad quite early this year.”

The collection systems from both rivers are made up of snowpack which is important when it comes to putting out wildfires, according to Schultheiss.

“People think summer storms help with wildfires but they don’t actually prevent it,” he said. “It’s those snowpacks that infiltrate into the soil that really control wildfires. So, when you have a year like this, when there’s very little snowpack, the potential for a serious wildfire goes way, way up.”

From News 4 Tucson (Jeff Beamish):

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, much of Arizona has slight chance for above average rainfall between July and September.

Northeastern Arizona has the best odds for above average Monsoon rainfall. Coincidentally, the worst of the ongoing drought resides around the Four Corners region.

Below average Monsoon rainfall can’t be ruled out, according to the CPC’s latest odds. Southern Arizona has a 67% chance for near or above average rainfall, but only a 33% chance for below normal Monsoon precipitation.

The Monsoon officially begins on June 15th and ends September 30th. Climatology says Tucson’s average Monsoon rainfall is 6.08”.

From Western Resource Advocated (Erin Overturf):

But climate change is impacting those of us who live in the West. It may not come in the form of “super storms,” but it can be just as devastating. These are three of the most prominent threats of climate change in the West:

Threat #1: Water Supply

Perhaps the most profound and immediate threat from climate change in the West is to our water supply. Our rivers help to sustain our iconic wildlife, feed our communities, power our economies, and offer an escape to play.

Most of our precipitation falls as snow in the mountains, which acts like a water bank for downstream communities. Climate change has shortened the winter – when we stock up on snow – leaving our water supplies uncertain. In turn, our landscape is getting drier, leaving it more vulnerable to severe drought and bigger, more dangerous wildfires. And the effects compound each other: a drier landscape means more dust, and dust causes snowpack to melt and evaporate faster from our mountains, leaving less water flowing into downstream rivers and reservoirs.

Threat #2: Wildfires

Our mountains and canyons across the West are known for their gorgeous expanses of forests and grasses. Our prairies offer sustaining agriculture and the poetry of endless blue skies. Historically, natural wildfires have refreshed soil nutrients and maintained the forest ecosystem.

But climate change has changed that natural fire dynamic on Western lands. Since 1970, the annual wildfire season has lengthened by 78 days. Since 1984, the area that burns annually has doubled. The Forest Service estimates that area may double again by 2050. Our forests and grasslands are drier and more susceptible to disease and pests, such as the mountain pine beetle. When they do burn, they burn hotter and longer, endangering ecosystems, wildlife, and homes.

Threat #3: Our Public Health

We sometimes forget the effect that climate change has on our own health. Higher temperatures can cause air pollution, such as from ozone and dust. People who suffer from asthma, like my son and me, are particularly vulnerable when air quality is low. Smoke from wildfires can make it impossible to venture outside without wheezing. Increased ozone and poor air quality disproportionately impact those who suffer from heart disease, the elderly, the young, and low-income communities. And they make it harder to get outside and enjoy the beauty of the West.

From The Mountain Town News (Allen Best):

Ski slopes in Colorado and other parts of the West were slow to turn white this now-departed winter. That’s not terribly unusual. For nearly all of the modern resort era, ski hill bosses have periodically summoned Native Americans to speak to the higher powers. Ski areas can announce opening dates months in advance, but weather keeps its own schedule.

Snowmaking can overcome that varied natural schedule. But even snowmaking failed the Aspen Skiing Co. and many other ski areas in Colorado and elsewhere early in the past season. It was just too warm.

Snowmaking begins at temperatures of 26 degrees F. or less, but the machines can really crank at temperatures of 10 degrees Fahrenheit, observes Victor Gerdin, mountain planner for the Aspen Skiing Co.

“Not only did we have very few days of 26 degrees or less, we had practically no days of 10 degrees in November and December,” he told the Aspen Daily News.

Aspen plans to plow $5.5 million into new snowmaking equipment before next winter at its four ski areas. Some of the new equipment will replace older, less energy-efficient infrastructure. But Aspen also hopes to expand terrain covered by snowmaking, especially so at its money mountain, Snowmass.

Can snowmaking overcome the effect of global warming altogether? No—and some ski areas too low in elevation to sustain cold temperatures are almost certain to fall by the wayside. But for others, snowmaking can provide a crucial margin to sustain operations. The key, says Robin Smith, a snowmaking consultant, is that resorts invest in the most modern equipment, to maximize opportunities during shrinking windows of cold temperatures.

Smith, who has several dozen clients among ski areas across the country, says some of his customers have lost 30 percent or more of their snowmaking windows in the last decade. “That makes snowmaking tougher,” he tells Mountain Town News.

He foresees significant challenges for lower-elevation ski areas on the East Coast, the Midwest and elsewhere. Aspen, Vail and other higher elevation resorts in the Rockies will still have snow, but will face problems —similar to this year—of increased weather volatility produced by the warming atmosphere.

In a 2016 study, the Environmental Protection Agency projected temperatures in decades ahead for 247 ski areas in the United States. The study concluded that warming temperatures will cut deeply into the 450 hours of sufficiently cold temperatures that ski areas commonly believe they need to make snow in time for Christmas openings. That study, however, did not address the potential savior of automated snowmaking systems, says Smith, of Snowconsult.

This past winter was a challenge for many ski areas in Colorado, California and other regions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a map for December through February showing that much of western Colorado, including Aspen, had “much above average” temperatures.

This fits with what Aaron Smith, a ski patroller at Aspen Highlands, told Auden Schendler, Aspen’s vice president for sustainability, during the early season struggles.

“He said that it wasn’t that there was no snow coming down. It was that when any (solar) radiation hit it, it melted right away,” says Schendler. “That speaks to warmer temperatures I think.”

This fits in with the conclusions of a paper published in February 2017 by Water Resources Research. The authors of the paper declared that the drought of the 21st century in the Colorado River Basin actually had more to do with temperature increases than precipitation declines.

One of the researchers, Brad Udall, of Colorado State University’s Colorado Water Institute, laid out the thesis at a conference in downtown Denver recently. He said that a 20 percent decline in overall precipitation has been recorded in the basin from 2000 through 2017. This is despite a 5 percent increase in moisture content in the warming atmosphere.

“Something very odd and unusual is going on,” Udall said at the inaugural Water in the West Symposium.

“Something very odd and unusual is going on,” Udall said at the inaugural Water in the West Symposium.

Udall’s partner in the research, Jonathan Overpeck, formerly of the University of Arizona and now dean of the School of Environment and Sustainability at the University of Michigan, further fleshed out the study a few days later at the 2018 Next Generation Water Summit in Santa Fe.

The two big reservoirs on the river, Powell and Mead, were full in 1999, he pointed out. Powell was 52 percent full and Mead 39 percent fill as of April 28. Lake Mead, with a surface level now at 1,080 feet, is likely to drop below 1,075 feet, the place where shortage criteria kick in.

“That’s why we’re now starting to see fights over water again,” he said, alluding to a flurry of sharply-worded letters from upper-basin states to the Central Arizona Project. The upper-basin states accuse the Arizona agency of manipulating water demands and supplies for self-gain, at the expense of other water users.

Why are the reservoirs emptying? It’s not drought, as conventionally understood. It’s what Overpeck and Udall call aridification.

“Precipitation in this current drought is a contributor, a secondary contributor. The main cause of this drought is temperature,” said Overpeck.

The warming atmosphere, he explained, demands more moisture. This is accomplished in various ways. Most significant is increased evapotranspiration from soil and plants Precipitation is also sublimated from snow, there is more rain and less snowpack, and the growing season is longer. Plus, of course, there is more evaporation from surface water.

“Stop thinking about drought as precipitation,” he said.

Modeling indicates that if we tamp down emissions that temperatures will rise only 1 to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 to 3.6 degrees F), he said. But at the top end, without changes, warming of 5 to 7 degrees C (9 to 12 degrees F) can be expected.

Might the warming atmosphere produce more precipitation? Overpeck concedes that possibility. Climate models that cover Colorado have suggested a trend toward less precipitation in the Southwest and more precipitation in the northern half of the state. But water experts have warned that the models at this relatively micro-level have great ranges of uncertainty.

But even more precipitation falling from the sky will not result in precipitation that lingers on the ground, said Overpeck.

The Rio Grande Basin may be even harder hit. The river starts in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado, flowing past Taos and Santa Fe. U.S. Senator Tom Udall (a cousin to Brad Udall), speaking at the same conference, suggested more reservoirs are needed in the headwaters of the Rio Grande instead of at Elephant Butte, the big down-stream reservoir that loses so much water to evaporation.

In Denver, Brad Udall said temperature-induced losses in the Colorado River Basin will triple by 2050 and increase almost six-fold by the end of the century.

Earlier this year, Oregon’s Philip Mote and other researchers also fingered rising temperatures in a study of changing hydrology.

This won’t end skiing in the high Rockies, but it does suggest that the warm temperatures that frustrated efforts by Aspen and many other ski areas from making snow last November and December will become more frequent in decades ahead.

Some ski areas will have it worse than others. The EPA study concluded that given the current trajectory for greenhouse gas emissions, most skiing—even with snowmaking—will be gone in the East, Midwest and coastal Far West by 2090. Some of ski areas will be closed even sooner, within 30 years.

Smith, writing in the May issue of Ski Area Management, said he “absolutely believes the temperature predictions” produced for individual ski areas by the EPA study. However, the EPA study failed to account for improvements in snowmaking as well as the durability and resistance to melting of machine-made snowpack, he says.

Can snowmaking compensate? If the United States and other countries contain greenhouse gas emissions in line with the targets identified in the Paris climate accords, the answer seems to be yes, at least until 2050, and for most all resorts well beyond.

“But that’s only if each resort can adopt today’s cutting-edge snowmaking technology on a significant enough percentage of its terrain,” wrote Smith, who previously worked for five years as the North American representative for Italian snowmaking manufacturer TechnoAlpino.

“Automated snowmaking systems will be essential, because the windows of snowmaking opportunity will get smaller, and the available hours will become less. This has been happening already, of course. My clients in the last 10 years have observed 30 percent fewer total snowmaking hours under 28 degrees wet bulb. For clients with full automation, the diminished hours have not shortened their season at all.”

That’s if the world constrains emissions. If not? What if we continue with business as usual?

“Things get more difficult for all areas outside of the Central Rockies and the High Sierras, especially after 2050. We’d need some kind of technological breakthrough I don’t see coming.”

About Allen Best
Allen Best is a Colorado-based journalist. He publishes a subscription-based e-zine called Mountain Town News, portions of which are published on the website of the same name, and also writes for a variety of newspapers and magazines.
View all posts by Allen Best →

From KUNC (Luke Runyon):

A new study from NASA reinforces the idea that droughts are getting worse and could become more frequent in the Western U.S.

The culprit is human-caused climate change.

Droughts aren’t just about precipitation, says NASA scientist and the study’s co-author Benjamin Cook. They’re also about the timing of snowmelt and the wetness of soil, both of which are upended by a warming climate…

“We have pretty clear evidence now that climate change has already begun to make droughts worse or more likely in at least some regions,” he says. “So it’s a now problem, not a future problem.”

Definitions of drought vary. A meteorological drought happens when snow and rain are diminished. An agricultural drought is tied to soil moisture and can be influenced by the type of soil and the crops and vegetation grown. A hydrological drought refers to lessened runoff from snow, which in turn means less water ending up in surface reservoirs.

Here’s the link to my post about the late Kelly Redmond’s commentary, “The Depiction of #Drought,” required reading from professor Fleck.

Nowadays you have to include the “hot drought” and “aridification” in your calculus. Read this publication from the Colorado River Research Group, “When is drought not a drought? Drought, aridification, and the “new normal.”

Click here to read the discussion:

ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19.

During April 2018, the tropical Pacific returned to ENSO-neutral, as indicated by mostly near- to- below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the equator. The latest weekly Niño indices were near zero in all regions (between +0.2°C and -0.3°C), except for Niño-1+2, which remained negative (-0.6°C). Subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) remained positive, due to the continued influence of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave. Atmospheric indictors related to La Niña also continued to fade. While convection remained suppressed near and east of the Date Line, rainfall near Indonesia was also below average during the month. Low-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level winds were anomalous westerly over the eastern Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected a return to ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict ENSO-neutral to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2018 (Fig. 6). As the fall and winter approaches, many models indicate an increasing chance for El Niño. Therefore, the forecaster consensus hedges in the direction of El Niño as the winter approaches, but given the considerable uncertainty in ENSO forecasts made at this time of year, the probabilities for El Niño are below 50%. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored through September-November 2018, with the possibility of El Niño nearing 50% by Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor.

US Drought Monitor May 15, 2018.

West Drought Monitor May 15, 2018.

Colorado Drought Monitor May 15, 2018.

Click here to go to the NIDIS website hosted by the Colorado Climate Center. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

During the 7-day period ending Tuesday morning, areas of locally heavy rain provided drought relief from the Plains to the East Coast, though much of the Southeast was dry. Toward the end of the time frame, an influx of tropical moisture associated with a slow-moving disturbance generated heavy to excessive rainfall in Florida, with rain associated with this broad area of unsettled weather overspreading the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States after the data cutoff for this week’s analysis; any rain that falls after 12z Tuesday (8 a.m., EDT) will be incorporated into the following week’s drought assessment. In contrast, dry, hot weather maintained or exacerbated drought from the southern High Plains into the Southwest. Likewise, despite the generally unsettled weather pattern, pockets of dryness and drought lingered or intensified in the Upper Midwest and northern Plains…

South

Spotty heavy downpours brought localized drought relief to portions of Oklahoma and Texas, while dry, warmer-than-normal weather prevailed across the rest of the region. Locally heavy showers (2-4 inches) dotted drought areas from central Texas northward into western Oklahoma. Where rain was heaviest, reductions in drought intensity and coverage were made; however, considerable longer-term deficits remained, with the remaining Exceptional Drought (D4) areas reporting less than 25 percent of normal precipitation (locally less than 10 percent) over the past six months. Along the Gulf Coast, Abnormal Dryness (D0) was expanded eastward to reflect increasingly dry conditions over the past 30 to 60 days, while D1 and D2 were added in coastal locales where 90-day rainfall was less than half of normal. Farther inland, Moderate to Severe Drought (D1 and D2) were expanded in western Texas to reflect increasingly dry conditions at both the shorter term (60-day rainfall averaging 10 to 25 percent of normal) and longer time frame (6-month precipitation averaging less than 50 percent of normal, locally less than 25 percent)…

High Plains

The overall trend toward improving conditions in the south contrasting with increasingly dry weather in the north continued. From northeastern Colorado into central and southern Kansas, areas of moderate to heavy rain (1-3 inches) netted reductions in drought intensity and coverage. The most significant improvements were made in south-central Kansas, where a large area of 2 to 4 inches of rain (locally more) fell on areas of Severe (D2) to Extreme (D3) Drought. Moderate to heavy rain (1-3 inches) was similarly beneficial in northeastern Colorado, trimming the aerial extent of Abnormal Dryness (D0) and Moderate Drought (D1). Farther north, outside of locally beneficial downpours (1-3 inches) in northwestern South Dakota, acute short-term dryness over the past 30 days resulted in expanding D0 across southwestern South Dakota, southeastern North Dakota, and northeastern Montana, while a more prevalent dry signal over the past 90 days (50 percent of normal or less) led to expanding D1 and D2 in northeastern North Dakota…

West

Outside of beneficial rain and high-elevation snow in the north, pronounced short- and long-term dryness led to drought intensification and expansion across the Southwest. In southern Idaho, Abnormal Dryness (D0) was removed from most locales north of the Snake River, as recent rain and snow have pushed Water Year (to date) precipitation at or above the 35th percentile. However, sub-par seasonal precipitation coupled with increasingly dry conditions over the past 30 days led to the expansion of D0 in northeastern Montana and Moderate Drought (D1) in southwestern Idaho. Abnormal Dryness was expanded westward across central and northern portions of California’s Coastal Range due to a sub-par water year coupled with increasingly dry conditions over the past 30 days (deficits of 2 inches or more, locally less than 10 percent of normal). Farther south, Severe, Extreme, and Exceptional Drought (D2-D4) were increased from southern California into much of New Mexico. Changes were most pronounced in eastern portions of the region, where Water Year precipitation was in the 2nd percentile or lower, particularly across the northern third of New Mexico. Satellite-derived vegetation health data indicated conditions have deteriorated rapidly across the region, with the worst vegetation indices with respect to normal noted from Arizona southeastward into southern New Mexico. Drought Monitor authors are in close contact with local and regional experts from the Southwest, and further detailed analysis will likely result in additional intensification and expansion of drought as the situation is assessed over the upcoming weeks…

Looking Ahead

An active pattern will continue, with three significant areas of wet weather over the next 5 days. Moderate to heavy rain will continue to soak locales from the Appalachians to the East Coast, with totals approaching or topping 5 inches in parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will develop over the middle part of the nation, triggering moderate to heavy rain (locally more than 2 inches) from the central Plains into the Dakotas, while a trailing cold front producers similar rainfall amounts over north-central Texas and environs. Finally, a pair of upper-air disturbances will generate periods of rain across the northern two-thirds of the western U.S. Despite the unusually active pattern, dry weather will prevail from central and southern California into the lower Four Corners. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for May 22 – 26 calls for below-normal rainfall across central and southern Texas and from the Great Lakes into New England. Conversely, wetter-than-normal conditions are expected from northern portions of the Rockies and Great Basin to the central and southern Atlantic Coast, with the greatest likelihood for abnormally wet weather in the Southeast. Abnormal warmth is expected over most of the nation save for near-normal temperatures in California and New England.

From CBS Denver (Ashton Altieri):

The City of Salida is now encouraging residents to follow the voluntary restrictions “similar to past years”. This includes even street address watering on even numbered days and odd on odd days and not watering between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m.

A year ago no part of Colorado was officially under drought. A few areas were “abnormally dry” including all of Park County and much of the Grand Junction area.

Fast forward to May 2018 and nearly 70% of the state is under some state of drought, making it likely that voluntary water restrictions may become mandatory restrictions in some areas.

From 5280.com (Jay Bouchard):

With dangerously low snowpack levels across the state, Colorado is facing a severe water shortage. We take a look at what that means for rivers, wildfires, and the future of water use in the West.

To put things in perspective, on April 9—which is historically the peak day for snowpack in Colorado—almost the entire state was sitting at below-average levels. Southern Colorado had it worst. The Upper Rio Grande basin, for instance, boasted a meager 43 percent of its normal snowpack. The Gunnison basin sat at only 57 percent. The Arkansas basin was at 63 percent. Only the North and South Platte River basins approached normal levels.

A month later, little has improved. “We’re staring down a pretty bleak water year,” says Matt Rice, director of the American Rivers’ Colorado Basin Program. And what’s worse, he says, is that “This is absolutely part of a trend.” According to river and conservation scientists, Colorado is in the midst of a drought that dates back to the record-dry year of 2002. Although we have had some wet winters over the past two decades, dry seasons are now becoming “the new normal.” And that’s a problem—not just for our ski resorts, rivers, and lakes, but also for our farmers, cities and our neighboring states…

Ask a climate scientist why water scarcity in Colorado has become so dire, and their most simple answer will likely be a two-part explanation: Climate change and population growth. Over the past several decades, Colorado has seen warmer temperatures with dryer winters and diminished snowpack. It doesn’t help that, since 2000, Colorado has gained approximately 1.3 million residents, all of whom in some way rely on the state’s water sources. “The population growth is very much compounded by climate change,” Rice says. “There is increasing demand on rivers for municipal and industrial water use.”

[…]

Moreover, the Front Range gets about 50 percent of its water—roughly 160 billion gallons—via annual trans-mountain diversions from rivers on the Western Slope. These diversions draw water away from communities and rivers experiencing the most severe drought conditions in Colorado. “We’re all connected, says Bart Miller, Healthy Rivers program director for Boulder-based Western Resources Advocates. “Water use in Denver, in some ways, is having an impact on our West Slope neighbors.” A complicated diversion system, in conjunction with population growth and a changing climate, leaves us facing a stark reality: We’re running out of water.

Click here to read the report:

Climate Highlights — April

Temperature

During April, the average contiguous U.S. temperature was 48.9°F, 2.2°F below the 20th century average, making it the 13th coldest April on record and the coldest since 1997.

Below-average temperatures were observed from the Rockies to the East Coast. Twenty-two states had an April temperature that ranked among the 10 coldest on record. Eight states had their second coldest April on record and two states—Iowa and Wisconsin—were record cold.

Above-average April temperatures were observed across much of the West, with record warm temperatures for parts of the Southwest. Arizona had its second warmest April on record with a statewide temperature 6.3°F above average.

Above-average April temperatures were also observed in southern Florida.

The contiguous U.S. average maximum (daytime) temperature during April was 61.7°F, 1.7°F below the 20th century average, marking the 21st coolest value on record and coolest since 1997. Below-average maximum temperatures were observed from the Rockies to East Coast, with 19 states having a top 10 cold April maximum temperature. Iowa had a record cold April maximum temperature.

The location of record and near-record cold maximum temperature coincided with record-setting April snowfall. Above-average conditions were observed in the Southwest, where Arizona had its second warmest April maximum temperature on record.

Nationally, the April minimum (nighttime) temperature was the seventh coldest on record at 36.1°F, 2.6°F below average. Below-average conditions were observed from the Rockies to the East Coast, where nine states had an average minimum temperature for the month that was record cold with fourteen additional states having much-below-average minimum temperatures. Above-average minimum temperatures were observed across the West.

The Alaska average April temperature was 26.6°F, 3.3°F above the long-term mean. This ranked among the warmest third of the historical record. St. Paul and Cold Bay each had their fifth warmest April on record. Along the state’s west coast, sea ice continued to be much below average, contributing to the above-average temperatures. Some impacts of the low sea ice reported include coastal erosion and loss of hunting/fishing grounds.

During April there were 7,068 record cold daily high (3,778) and low (3,290) temperature records, which was about 2.8 times the 2,563 record warm daily high (972) and low (1,591) temperature records.

Based on NOAA’s Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index (REDTI), the contiguous U.S. temperature-related energy demand during April was 82 percent above average and was the fifth highest value in the 124-year period of record. The below-average temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest contributed to the above-average REDTI.

Precipitation

The April precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 2.41 inches, 0.11 inch below average, and ranked near the median value in the 124-year period of record.

During April, above-average precipitation was observed along the West Coast, Northern Rockies and much of the East. Record high precipitation was observed in parts of the Northwest, with Washington state having its third wettest April on record with 5.53 inches of precipitation, 2.70 inches above average. This was the wettest April for the state since 1996.

Below-average precipitation stretched from the Southwest, through much of the Great Plains, where five states had a monthly precipitation total that was much below average. The dry conditions in the Southern Plains provided ideal wildfire conditions with numerous large wildfires burning during the month. Record-low precipitation was observed in parts of the Southwest and mid-Mississippi Valley.

According to NOAA data, analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab, the contiguous U.S. snow cover extent during April was 508,000 square miles, 227,000 square miles above the 1981–2010 average. This was the fifth largest April snow cover extent on record for the Lower 48 since satellite records began 52 years ago, and the largest April snow cover extent since 1997. Above-average snow cover was observed for most northern locations in the nation, with below-average snow cover in the Southwest.

Most locations on the Hawaiian Islands had above-average precipitation during April with Lihue having its sixth wettest April and Kula its third wettest. On April 14-15, heavy rain fell across Kauai causing major flooding and landslides. According to preliminary data, a rain gauge near Hanalei, on Kauai’s North Shore, reported 49.69 inches of rain in 24 hours, potentially a new national record. It is pending review by the National Climate Extremes Committee.

According to the May 1 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 28.6 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down from 29.4 percent at the beginning of April. Drought conditions improved in California, the Northern Plains and the Southeast. Drought also improved in parts of the Alaskan panhandle. Drought conditions expanded and intensified in the Southwest and Central to Southern Plains. The percent area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing D4 – Exceptional Drought, the worst category, expanded to 2.2 percent, the highest since November 2016. D4 drought conditions stretched from the Southwest to Southern Plains.