From The Colorado Independent (Alex Burness):

Colorado’s scorching summer of 2018 may signal a new normal.

Best-case scenarios show 100-degree days becoming seven times more common in coming decades, while worst-case scenarios show temperatures topping the century mark on roughly 10 percent of days by 2080.

Much of this depends on the near-future global efforts o reduce emissions and stem global warming, but Colorado climate scientists are clear that emissions cuts won’t determine whether extreme heat becomes more common in the state, but how much more common.

On July 11, Denver had its 30th day of 2018 at 90 degrees Fahrenheit or higher. That mark had never previously been crossed so early in the year.
But, Stephen Saunders of the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization, warned, “What we’ve seen so far is probably only a small taste of what lies ahead of us.”
Saunders was the lead author on a series of recent studies examining extreme heat scenarios in various segments of Colorado’s Front Range, including Denver, Boulder County and Larimer County.

Those studies, conducted in 2016 and 2017 and funded by the Colorado Department of Local Affairs and the Denver Department of Public Health and Environment, present some almost unfathomably scorching scenarios.

For example: At the current rate of global emissions, Denver will see 25 days per year above 100 degrees by mid-century during extreme summers, like the current one, the researchers found.

It’s unlikely, though, that the current rate will be maintained. Every country in the world, other than the United States, is signed onto the 2015 Paris agreement, which calls on individual nations to voluntarily work to reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions.

The central goal of the Paris agreement is, as the United Nations puts it, “to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) … and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius.”

Saunders’s team wondered just how much hotter Colorado would get if the 2-degree Paris goal is reached.

On average, the state will see 2 days per year with temperatures over 100, they found, under a scenario of enormous global success in limiting emissions. That might not sound like too many extra-hot days every year, but consider that over the past century, Colorado’s averaged only one day above 100 every three years, roughly.

Kevin Trenberth, who holds the title of distinguished senior scientist at Boulder’s National Center for Atmospheric Research, isn’t optimistic that the world will achieve the Paris goals.

“I personally think there’s no way that’s going to happen,” he said of the goal to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius, “and I think it’s very unlikely we meet 2 degrees Celsius. I think we’ll zoom right by that around 2050.”

The United States’s lack of formal participation in the Paris accord — a reversal by President Trump of the country’s Obama-era course, inspired many cities and states, including Denver, to commit to their own, local 2050 emissions targets. But, Trenberth said, that’s likely not enough.

The U.S. has, over time, produced far more heat-trapping pollution than any other nation, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

It’s fallen behind China in annual pollution, but in overall emissions, remains above everyone else. And while the country is economically, intellectually and industrially capable of dramatically shifting focus toward lowering emissions, its present administration has rarely even acknowledged the existence of human-caused climate change, much less taken steps to lead on the issue.

“It’s been very hard to get across to the general public and to politicians that we can’t simply turn back the clock very easily on this issue,” Trenberth said. “There are long-term consequences.”

Trenberth explains how he sees these consequences playing out:

There is more heat beating down on our planet than can escape the atmosphere because of the blanket of greenhouse gases the U.S. helped knit. That blanket prevents heat from going out to space.

So, the temperature goes up, on average, and the added heat means moisture evaporates more quickly. In turn, the extra water in the atmosphere fuels storms that are heavier and more vigorous than those we’ve historically seen.

And, in the places it’s not raining, the heat saps needed moisture and the risk of wildfire goes up.

This summer in Colorado already has seen a point at which eight different wildfires were burning at once. Gov. John Hickenlooper said this week that the state’s now over budget for addressing wildfires.

And if our current June and July become the norm, Coloradans can come to expect worse fire seasons and government budgets unequipped to keep pace.

“We can avoid a really fundamental transition of our climate if we reduce emissions,” Saunders said. “But that takes our entire planet doing it.”

From Colorado Public Radio (Grace Hood):

“Most of the pasture we used last year we’re not using this year because there’s no moisture,” [Matt] Isgar said of the land he ranches in Hesperus, west of Durango. “There’s no new growth.”

With the dark red bull’s eye of exceptional drought looming over the Four Corners region, Isgar has lowered his grazing standards. He sold off 35 cows to stave off financial bleeding, but there are still costs.

“We’re spending more material and labor fixing fences and hauling water, and we’re supplementing with protein. So every day is more expensive to operate,” he said.

Hot and dry conditions have become an insidious foe to Colorado ranchers and farmers. While dry summers aren’t new, a winter and spring with little snow and rain have pushed parts of the state to get drier, faster. June marked the third warmest on record for the entire state. Colorado should soon see normal monsoon moisture, but that won’t help Rocky Ford cantaloupe farmer Greg Smith. The legendary local crop grows out on the southern eastern plains, another region dealing with exceptional drought.

Smith saw the writing on the wall with the spring’s low snow pack and only planted a third of his 100 acre farm.

“It’s just brown dry,” he said. “A match gets started on fire and you have a prairie fire that may run for miles.”

There’s a cost to leaving fields empty. Smith still treats the soil to prevent weeds. And financially, even with fewer acres planted, he has the same bills to pay. Even his retirement plans got delayed. His intention to build a second retirement residence was torched by the Spring Creek Fire…

Nearby Baca County was the epicenter of the 30s dust bowl, so dryland wheat farmer Brian Brooks said he’s seen worse. His crop yields are down by about 5 bushels per acre. Prices have decreased slightly. His only saving grace at the moment was above average rainfall from last year that supercharged the soil. Farming advances have allowed him to conserve that moisture for his benefit for now.

The future likely will mean hotter temperatures which can prolong drought. Roger Pulwarty, a senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said hotter temperatures can prompt flash droughts, like in 2012, when the majority of the U.S. dried in just a few months.

“This idea of intensification in drought is what makes drought very unique … By the time it’s intensified, we’ve used up all the buffers we’ve relied on, [like] cheaper grain. And now we’re at the mercy of a very, very strong event,” he said.

It feels like that hotter drier future has already arrived for hay grower Ed Zink. For 70 years he’s lived on Waterfall Ranch, near Durango. He typically sees the namesake waterfall on the nearby rocky cliffs — but not this year. It’s a first for Zink…

Zink watched the 416 Fire come within a half mile of this property in June, another first. Ample water rights for his property have meant little difficulty for growing hay this year. But 70 years ago, Zink said his property was situated at the edge of alpine forest. He could see desert to the south. That desert has started marching northward toward his farm.

“I don’t know how to exactly put it in perspective,” he said. “It feels like the edge of that desert has moved 50 or 75 miles in my lifetime.”

Zink’s neighbor’s wells have started to dry up, another change in his lifetime. Groundwater is on the decline, and the cause is not fully known. La Plata County plans on a comprehensive study of the problem. The picture adds up to a landscape of more people making due with less water.

From The Mountain Town News (Allen Best):

Slipping in climate change amid the daily weather on TV in Colorado

Television meteorologist Mike Nelson has two-and-a-half minutes each night to recap the day’s weather and inform viewers of Denver’s KMGH-TV what to expect in the hours and days ahead. Rarely does he have time to mention the changing climate.

Nelson, though, does speak up when he can. “It’s not just about polar bears. It’s about our children and our grandchildren,” he said on a recent Saturday morning in downtown Denver as he showed a picture of his own grandchildren. “This is really important stuff.”

A handful of representatives from TV stations in Denver, Colorado Springs and Grand Junction were at the session held on the Auraria campus. Nelson, chief meteorologist at Channel 7, had helped organize the program with the National Weather Service, bringing in two climate scientists to talk about how greenhouse gases are warming the planet and changing the climate.

It was a low-key affair in an ordinary classroom in the Science building. There was coffee in the back and pink-glazed donuts, but also carrots and dip. Few of the faces were familiar to casual TV watchers. Other than Nelson, only Danielle Grant, a relatively recent addition to the prime-time slots at Channel 9, stood out. Nelson has been reciting the temperatures and dishing out predictions of rain, snow, and sunshine in Denver with his signature voice, smooth and calmly authoritative, since 1991.

The scientists talked about weather and climate, physics and politics, despair and optimism.

Greenhouse gas emissions have actually accelerated in the last three years, said Kevin Trenberth, distinguished senior scientist with the Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. “We’re not making a dent in the problem so far,” he said. Half of all modern emissions have occurred since 1985.

Trenberth, whose accent betrays his New Zealand roots, has been consulted frequently by reporters for national news organizations such as when Hurricane Sandy flooded Manhattan. While temperatures have clearly been rising, Trenberth was among the first to proclaim the increased energy could also be detected in extreme weather.

About 90 percent of the increased heat goes into the ocean, causing expansion of the water and rising sea levels. Trenberth said he believes that hurricanes are a way that oceans use to shed heat, much as a body sheds heat perspiration. The warming climate may not result in more hurricanes, he said, but it is already increasing their severity by 5 to 15 percent. The effect of warming produced by accumulated greenhouse emissions can be found in the deeper droughts and more ferocious storms.

Dealing with detractors

In 2009, hijacked e-mails from Trenberth and others were cited by climate contrarians as proof that climate change, as President Donald Trump has said more recently, is nothing more than a giant hoax.

One of the quotes cited as evidence had been sent by Trenberth to climate scientists in Great Britain. “We cannot show any warming, and it is a travesty that we cannot,” he had written. His detractors had conveniently neglected to provide the context. He was referring to the lack of an adequate monitoring system to show the warming in the deeper waters of the ocean.

Nelson said that he, too, often gets angry e-mails and phone calls when he mentions climate change. “Spare me,” was in the subject line of one e-mail he got last October.

“Stick to making erroneous forecasts like you always do and let the real scientists discuss climate change,” said the viewer. “BTW, we’ve had climate change for 4.5 billion years, always have always will. This is just a minor blip.”

Detractors don’t stop Nelson. He speaks to about 50 schools per year, 15,000 students altogether. Youngsters want to hear about tornadoes, he said, but it’s important to also explain the basics of climate change. He also challenges the students to come up with inventions and innovations to solve the problem.

“I tell students the problems are real, but the solutions can be found,” he said. “I thank them for the solutions they will find in the next 25 to 30 years.”

Nelson also uses social media to occasionally push climate change education. He recently interviewed both Trenberth and another climate scientist, Scott Denning, of Colorado State University, for 20 minutes each on Facebook. Those interviews have had 25,000 views.

Denning also spoke to the weathercasters, at first in deference. His audiences usually consist of maybe a couple dozen students. “Every day you talk to hundreds of thousands of people. It’s amazing.”

Then he laid out Climate Science 101 to people with bachelor’s and master’s degrees. The basic mechanism of the greenhouse effect, he said, is really no more difficult to understand than the science taught in grade schools.

“This really isn’t complicated.” The absorption spectrum of carbon dioxide, he said, was first measured by Irish scientist John Tyndall in 1863, when Abraham Lincoln was president. “This is not something we discovered 20 or 30 years ago.”

Denver can expect the heat of Albuquerque, located almost 500 miles to the south, in coming decades, and Estes Park, at 7,500 feet in elevation, the heat now of Denver, 2,300 feet lower in elevation. Trail Ridge Road will be as warm as Estes Park.

“This is huge, and it’s here,” he said. The warming now underway is the most rapid that has occurred on the Earth since the end of the last Ice Age. The post-glacial warming that took 100 centuries is now expected in just 100 years—some of it inevitably, even if rapid progress can be made in abating emissions.

Denning calls his presentation “Simple. Serious. Solvable.” He brings a performer’s intensity to each theme. “This is so depressing I don’t even want to talk about it,” he said, flipping past one no-doubt serious slide.

Then came the solvable, which he suggested is simple enough. Converting to 100 percent non-carbon energy will only cost about 1 percent of the gross domestic product. “That’s what it cost to retrofit the world’s cities with indoor plumbing a century ago,” he added. “It was so worth it.”

Our future well-being need not be based on “stuff we extract from the ground,” he concluded. Changing our technologies will not require us to go back to shivering in the dark. “That is a grim, awful view of human progress.”

What the survey results found

Ten or 15 years ago, many TV meteorologist were deeply skeptical of the conclusions being reached by climate scientists. Some still are. At the Colorado Water Congress several years ago, Brian Bledsoe, chief meteorologist at KKTV in Colorado Springs, argued strongly that the vast majority of climate scientists had it all wrong. Bledsoe, who grew up in a ranching and farming area of eastern Colorado, retains a core audience in the agriculture community for his forecasting service, Weather5280.com.

Even now, broadcast meteorologists altogether remain notably skeptical about the conclusions being drawn by climate scientists. A 2017 survey of 486 participating broadcast meteorologists by the American Meteorological Society found that 95 percent thought climate change is happening. However, only 49 percent of broadcast meteorologists said they were convinced that the changed climate observed during the past 50 years has been mostly or entirely due to human activity.

Another 21 percent attributed the changes equally to human activity and natural forces, and the final 21 percent said the changes were entirely natural.

Members of the American Meteorological Society altogether are far more accepting of the human role in the changing climate. So are Americans altogether. Gallup has asked Americans since 2001 whether they believe global warming is caused by human activities. The percentage has increased from 57 early in the century to a high of 68 percent last year. In the March poll, it fell back to 64 percent.

Opinions differ sharply based on political affiliation. The Gallup poll in March found that 69 percent of Republicans think the seriousness of global warming is generally exaggerated, and 33 percent of independents agreed, compared to just 4 percent of Democrats.

Democrats and Republicans even disagree in what they think they hear scientists saying. Some 86 percent of Democrats say most scientists believe warming is occurring, compared to 65 percent for independents and 42 percent of Republicans.

Nelson likes to say that TV meteorologists like himself are as close as most people get to a scientist on a daily basis. He first encountered climate science as a student in the 1970s at the University of Wisconsin. “The talk was of global cooling due to dust, but even then, the majority of scientists thought the CO2 would eventually win out,” he says. By the 1990s, he began thinking about greenhouse gas emissions again and, eventually, his responsibility to insert climate change into his public conversations.

“When we have a climate-related news story in the newscast, I try to have it positioned to lead into my report, so I can comment, perhaps have a supporting graphic or have something posted on social media that I can have the viewer check,” he says.

Nelson had said he hoped the session at Auraria would embolden younger weathercasters to talk about climate change, despite the risk of what he calls “nasty-grams.”

“The fact is we need to talk about it,” he told his younger colleagues while describing climate change as the “most existential threat” to civilization. But, he added, it’s a simple matter of physics—and solutions can be found.

Afterward, Nezette Rydell, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service office in Boulder, defended the turnout to the session, despite the shortage of marquee faces. Like Nelson, she tilted forward with a glimmer of a smile. “Climate scientists used to be so depressing,” she said. “It’s not the end of the world anymore.”

From Colorado Public Radio (Nathan Heffel):

When is a drought so dry it can no longer just be called a drought? In Colorado, that time may be right now. At least, that’s what University of Colorado researcher Douglas Kenney thinks. Kenney directs the school’s Western Water Policy Program, which recently released a paper called “When is Drought, Not a Drought: Drought, Aridification, and the “New Normal.”

Kenney talked to Colorado Matters about why he and his peers believe that aridification is the more appropriate word. [ed. Click through to listen.] Aridification describes a period of transition where an environment becomes increasingly and permanently water scarce — a new reality for the Western U.S.

Take a trip down memory lane through mid-July West Drought Monitor maps.

West Drought Monitor July 10, 2018.

West Drought Monitor July 18 2017.

West Drought Monitor July 19, 2016.

West Drought Monitor July 21, 2015

West Drought Monitor July 15, 2014

Click here for all the inside skinny and to register.

From The Summit Daily (Deepan Dutta):

Colorado’s fish are in hot water. Low river flows and high water temperatures are endangering trout in rivers and streams across the state, and wildlife officials are urging anglers to fish early in the day and take their lines out when water warms in the afternoon.

“We’re experiencing some extreme high water temperatures in some of our rivers and streams, high enough to stress out trout,” said CPW aquatic biologist Jon Ewert, who oversees aquatic life in Grand and Summit counties.

Ewert said that trout thrive around 50 degrees, get lethargic in the 60s and become very stressed in the 70s. Trout mortality is likely at 74 degrees and above.

The worry about water temperature is verified by data from the water monitoring gauge at the Pumphouse recreation site near Kremmling, a very popular place for wade and float fishing. At one point this season water temperature there reached 70 degrees and has been holding steady between 60 and 70 since.

“We’re in the worst shape when it comes to conditions,” said Lori Martin, CPW’s senior aquatic biologist for northwest Colorado. “The snowpack melted early, and it’s constantly hot and dry.”

Martin referred to the snowmelt that peaked in mid-May in Summit, a month earlier than normal, causing water flows to bottom out much earlier in the season.

Historical data from the Pumphouse gauge showed that the typical water flow at this point in July is usually around 1,200 to 1,400 cubic feet per second. But this year, water levels peaked in mid-June and have been hovering around 850 cfs for over a week.

Water levels are important when it comes to temperature, as higher levels mean water warms up more slowly while the opposite is true for lower levels. With early melt-off, the hottest part of the summer is coinciding with the lowest water levels…

Ewert said that anglers should not be fishing after 1 p.m., as it is the hottest part of the day and when fish are most stressed…

“It’s a little frustrating that these reservoirs are full but they’re not letting any of it out,” said [Jack] Bombardier. “But the primary function of those reservoirs is for human consumption to mitigate low summer flows, and not for fish.”

As with anything water-related this summer, the hope comes in the form of rain. Monsoon season is expected to be wetter than average and the cloud coverage is expected to help cool streams enough to keep trout happy. Ewert said that the water temperature situation isn’t dire yet, but if rains don’t come soon the state may likely consider voluntary fishing closures in Summit County.

US Drought Monitor July 10, 2018.

West Drought Monitor July 10, 2018.

Colorado Drought Monitor July 10, 2018.

Click here to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

Summary

An active summer pattern continued over the central and northern Plains and into the upper Midwest, with several areas seeing well above normal precipitation associated with thunderstorms. Along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida, precipitation was plentiful and widespread as ample moisture continued to be transported into the region. The precipitation along the Gulf also helped to keep temperatures 1-3 degrees cooler than normal for this time of year. Some monsoon activity started up in the Southwest with some scattered precipitation while most of the rest of the West remained warm and dry with an increase in fire danger and active fires throughout the region…

High Plains

An active thunderstorm pattern helped to bring ample precipitation to North Dakota, northern South Dakota, central and eastern Nebraska, and portions of western Kansas. The precipitation last week along with recent rains has allowed for improvements in the Dakotas. Severe drought was eliminated from both North and South Dakota while abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions contracted as well. All of the abnormally dry conditions were eliminated from northwest South Dakota and southwest North Dakota. Eastern Kansas remained dry and severe drought expanded through northeast Kansas and was introduced into southeast Kansas while moderate drought expanded as well. Southwest Kansas had a full category improvement to drought conditions this week as the recent wetness has helped improve drought in this part of the state. In Nebraska, the recent rains in June and early July did not impact all of the state equally and portions of southern Nebraska are starting to show lingering impacts due to dryness going back to the autumn of 2017. This area will need to be monitored closely for development in the coming weeks.

Portions of southeast Colorado improved this week in response to the recent wet pattern, but a new area of exceptional drought was introduced in eastern Colorado as conditions have been rapidly worsening in both the short and long term…

South

The southern portions of the region had the most precipitation as the Gulf Coast continued to be wet and also cooler where the most rain occurred. Areas of eastern Oklahoma and northern Arkansas into northern Mississippi continued to remain dry with some short-term impacts starting to develop. Areas of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles had improvements this week as the rains continued in the short term and continue to improve the longer-term issues that allowed exceptional drought to be removed in Oklahoma. Severe drought was introduced into northeast Oklahoma, and abnormally dry and moderate drought were also expanded. Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions were also expanded in northern and central Arkansas and into eastern Mississippi. Improvements were made in southern Louisiana where the most recent rains helped in the short term.

In Texas, conditions improved along the Gulf Coast and Rio Grande regions where exceptional drought was eliminated and extreme drought contracted. Northeast Texas also saw some improvements to moderate and severe drought while abnormally dry conditions were also improved in east Texas into Louisiana. In central Texas, severe drought was introduced and moderate drought expanded, and extreme drought was expanded in northern Texas. West Texas had moderate drought introduced, while other areas had improvements to abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions…

West

Most of the region was dry this week and also recorded temperatures that were 3-6 degrees above normal. Portions of Arizona, New Mexico, southern Utah, and eastern Nevada did see some monsoon activity with scattered precipitation in both states. The hot and dry conditions have allowed for quite a rapid expansion of drought in portions of Utah and Colorado. A full category degradation was introduced over much of eastern Utah and western Colorado, bringing most of the area into exceptional drought conditions. Moderate drought was expanded to most of northwest Colorado while moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions migrated to the east in Colorado to include the Denver area. Moderate drought was introduced into northwest Montana and the panhandle of Idaho while abnormally dry conditions expanded over northeast Washington. Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions were also expanded over central Oregon and Washington because of the short-term issues combined with dryness through the winter. Abnormally dry conditions were also expanded in southwest Wyoming. Eastern New Mexico did have some improvement where exceptional drought was retracted in the northeast portion of the state, and some improvements were also made along the border with Texas…

Looking Ahead

Over the next 5-7 days, the active precipitation pattern is expected to continue over the Southwest and into southern Colorado. The central Plains and Upper Midwest as well as areas of the Southeast also should see widespread rain. Temperatures will be warmest over the West and Great Basin as well as over most of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, with departures 6-9 degrees above normal in the West and 3-6 degrees above normal over the East.

The 6-10 day outlooks show that greatest probabilities of above-normal temperatures are in the West and also from the southern Plains through the Midwest and across much of the East, while much of the central Plains and Alaska have the best probabilities of below-normal temperatures. The greatest probabilities of above-normal precipitation are from the Southwest into the central Plains and into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. The highest probabilities of below-normal precipitation are in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains, the northern Plains and much of Texas.

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Click here to read the current assessment. Click here to go to the NIDIS website hosted by the Colorado Climate Center.

Here’s the release from NOAA:

The contiguous United States had its third warmest June on record

The June contiguous U.S. temperature was 71.5°F, 3.0°F above the 20th century average. Only June 1933 and 2016 were warmer for the nation. Above-average temperatures spanned much of the Lower 48, with near- to below-average temperatures in the Northwest and Northeast. The first half of 2018 was marked by large month-to-month swings in temperature, but when averaged, the contiguous U.S. temperature was 49.4°F, 1.9°F above the 20th century average, and the 14th warmest January-June on record.

The June precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 3.08 inches, 0.15 inch above average, and ranked near the middle of the 124-year period of record. Much-above-average precipitation fell in parts of the Midwest, Northern to Central Plains and Mid-Atlantic with below-average precipitation across parts of the West and South. Several significant flash-flooding events impacted the U.S. during June. For the year-to-date, the precipitation total was 15.78 inches, 0.47 inch above average, and ranked near the middle of the 124-year period of record.

This monthly summary from NOAA’ s National Centers for Environmental Information is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, business, academia and the public to support informed decision-making.

June Temperature

Above-average June temperatures were observed for much of the nation. Seventeen states across parts of the Southwest, Great Plains, Midwest and Southeast had a much-above-average temperature. Minimum temperatures, or overnight lows, were particularly warm across the central and southeastern U.S. Iowa, New Mexico and Texas each had a record warm June minimum temperature.

Near- to below-average June temperatures were observed across the Northwest and Northeast. In the Northeast, a heatwave that began in late June and persisted into early July was not enough to compensate for below-average temperatures in early- and mid-June.

June Precipitation

Above-average precipitation was observed in a string of states from the Northern Rockies and Plains, through the Midwest, and into the mid-Atlantic. Indiana, Iowa and Kentucky each had a June precipitation total that was much above average. During June, there were several noteworthy heavy precipitation events that caused significant regional flooding.

On June 15-17, heavy rainfall caused fatal flash flooding in the Upper Midwest, washing out highways, with record crests along some rivers. One of the hardest hit communities was Houghton County, Michigan, where nearly 7.0 inches of precipitation fell in a short period.

A slow moving low pressure system, with tropical origins, dropped record-setting rainfall along the southern Texas coast on June 18-21. A report of 11.00 inches or more of precipitation near Premont, Texas, was received by the National Weather Service. The rain gauge reached its capacity of 11.00 inches before overflowing. Widespread flooding was reported during the event.

On June 22, 7.61 inches of precipitation was observed in Richmond, Virginia, causing flash flooding, power outages and the closure of the Richmond International Airport. This was the second highest daily rainfall total for the city, with a period of record that dates to 1887. Of the total precipitation, 4.09 inches of rain fell in just one hour, a new hourly record for the airport.

Below-average precipitation was observed across parts of the West, South, Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast during June. Utah tied its sixth driest June on record, receiving just 0.07 inch of precipitation during the month, 0.66 inch below average. Some locations in the Southwest received zero precipitation during June, a frequent occurrence during this time of year.

According to the July 3 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 29.7 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, up from 26.4 percent at the end of May. Drought conditions worsened in parts of the West, Southern Plains, the Mississippi River Valley and the Northeast. Numerous large wildfires impacted parts of the Rockies and Southwest during June, where months of warm and dry conditions contributed to an abundance of wildfire fuels. Drought conditions improved for parts of the Great Plains, Midwest and the Texas Gulf Coast. Abnormally dry conditions expanded in Hawaii and Puerto Rico.

Year-to-Date (January-June) Temperature

Above-average January-June temperatures were observed across the West, Southern Plains, East Coast and much of the Midwest. Eight states in the West and South had much-above-average year-to-date temperatures, including Arizona and New Mexico that were record warm. The Arizona statewide average temperature was 59.5°F, 4.3°F above average, and the New Mexico temperature was 53.4°F, 4.1°F above average. Near- to below-average temperatures were observed in the north-central contiguous U.S.

The Alaska statewide average temperature for the year-to-date was 25.6°F, 4.3°F above average, and tied 2005 as the 10th warmest on record. Above-average temperatures were observed across western and northern areas of the state, with near-average temperatures in southern Alaska.

Year-to-Date (January-June) Precipitation

Above-average precipitation was observed in the Northern Plains, Midwest and along parts of the East Coast. Seven states had a January-June precipitation total that was much above average, with record precipitation observed for some localized areas.

Below-average precipitation was observed for locations across the Southwest, Southern Plains, Upper Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Colorado had its 11th driest year-to-date on record.

Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters

Through the end of June, there have been six weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the U.S. during 2018. This was double the long-term average of three events for the January-June period since 1980, but slightly less than the 7.4 event average for the January-June period of the last five years. These events included four severe storm events and two winter storm events. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 36 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted.

Since these records began in 1980, the U.S. has sustained 233 weather and climate disasters where overall damages/costs reached or exceeded $1 billion (including CPI adjustment to 2018). The total cost of these 233 events exceeds $1.5 trillion.

The arrival of the Southwest’s summer monsoons is good news—good news everyone has been waiting for, especially since a dry, warm winter hit the state hard this year.

But drought conditions still persist in New Mexico, and despite temporary bumps in flows, the state’s rivers are still experiencing lower-than-normal flows. At the Otowi Gage on the Rio Grande in northern New Mexico—a critical point for determining how much water New Mexico must send to Texas under the Rio Grande Compact—flows dipped over the weekend to just above 700 cubic feet per second. (One cubic foot per second is equal to about 448 gallons flowing past in a minute or 7 gallons per second.) In Albuquerque, Thursday’s rainstorm pushed the river up to about normal flows. But by Saturday, the Rio Grande through the city dropped back down to about 350 cfs, about half what its flows have historically been in early July.

And it’s not just the Rio Grande.

On Saturday, the Animas River in Farmington was running at about 20 cfs—compared with flows that should be about 1,000 cfs this time of year. The San Juan River in Farmington saw an uptick earlier in the week, but by Saturday it had dropped down to 1,000 cfs, when it should be closer to 1,800 cfs. The Pecos River above Santa Rosa Dam is running at about seven cfs, less than a quarter of the historic norm. And in southwestern New Mexico, the Gila River near the town of Cliff—near where the state plans to build a diversion on the river—is jumping between 15 and 30 cfs. Downstream, near Red Rock, the Gila’s been running at a consistent three cfs. And while it was exciting to see the Santa Fe River roaring after Thursday’s storm, by the next day, the river was down to about six cfs.

To see stream flow measurements statewide, visit the USGS website here…

As of late last week, the state’s largest river, the Rio Grande, was dry for about 22 miles in the San Acacia reach south of Socorro and for about four miles in the Isleta reach above Peralta…

Meteorologists with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center anticipate that drought will remain in the state, but that conditions will improve between now and September, thanks to monsoon rains. Even that won’t return things to normal. According to the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, the southwestern United States has such a precipitation deficit right now that even a historically-good monsoon won’t help the region recover enough to reach 100 percent of its normal water year precipitation.

From The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (Charles Ashby):

The state’s low snowpack and lack of significant spring rains have caused several water suppliers statewide to put in place some mandatory restrictions, some of which go as far as to ban all outdoor landscape watering.

While that hasn’t happened in the Grand Valley, water suppliers have placed the area on voluntary restrictions, meaning they are asking, but not requiring, area residents to be more judicious in how they use water.

“(The year) 2018 has quickly become even more significant than the 2002 drought,” said Joe Burtard, external affairs manager for the Ute Water Conservancy District. “The domestic water providers along with the irrigation water providers moved Mesa County into a voluntary water restriction the earliest we’ve ever moved in, in early May of this year.”

[…]

Burtard said the four main water suppliers in the valley — Ute Water, Clifton Water District, the city of Grand Junction and the town of Palisade — have created a Grand Valley Regional Water Conservation Plan.

Part of that plan includes the Drought Response Information Project, a collaborative effort created by the four water suppliers after the 2002-03 drought to help instruct Grand Valley residents about water conservation.

While that plan asks water users to voluntarily place themselves on restrictions — or at least be a little smarter about how they use water — it also comes with an agreement that if one of the water suppliers decides to make those restrictions mandatory, they all will.

From The Albuquerque Journal (Maddy Hayden):

A map released Thursday by the [New Mexico’s] Drought Monitoring Workgroup indicated that 87 percent of the state remains in severe or worse drought.

That’s down from 89 percent last month, but conditions are still looking extremely dry in this part of the world.

At the end of June 2017, that percentage was 0.

Now, 18 percent of New Mexico – stretching from the Four Corners across much of the northern part of the state – is in exceptional drought…

Only a small strip of land along the state’s southern border from Las Cruces eastward, making up around 1.3 percent of the state, is currently drought-free.

Rivers around the state, including the Rio Grande, are dry or hardly flowing at some points.

John Fleck, director of the University of New Mexico’s Water Resources Program, said the Rio Grande near Embudo north of Española was the lowest in history for Thursday’s date in more than 120 years of record keeping.

A 22-mile stretch of the river in Socorro County is dry.

There, the carcasses of fish litter the white sand of what should be a wet ribbon winding through the desert.

Fleck said the the Rio Grande is still wet in Albuquerque only because of releases from the Heron, El Vado and Abiquiú reservoirs.

“It’s not clear how much longer those supplies of stored water will last,” Fleck said.

Depending on monsoon rains, Fleck said, the river could go dry in Albuquerque in August, which would be the first time that has happened since 1977.

The Pecos River, too, is essentially dry above the Santa Rosa Reservoir.

The winter’s abysmal snowpack has taken a toll on the state’s reservoirs.

Conchas Lake was down more than 15,500 acre-feet, and Abiquiu Reservoir was down 13,000 acre-feet since the beginning of the month…

In Albuquerque, water use has been kept under control, said Katherine Yuhas, water resources manager for the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority.

Water Utility Authority customers have used around 160 million more gallons than they had at this time last year.

“That sounds like a lot, but that’s equal to about three-fourths of a gallon more a day,” Yuhas said.

From The Deseret News (Amy Joi O’Donoghue):

On Thursday, the U.S. Drought Monitor released drought details that show worsening conditions in Utah as areas already experiencing extreme or exceptional drought are continuing to grow.

Those extremely dry conditions make the state ripe for more wildfires, the governor said, and it will likely get worse with the fireworks season looming…

“The most severe places for drought are centered in the southeastern corner, but it is starting to spread northward,” said Shane Green, rangeland management specialist with the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

From The Canon City Daily Record:

The Quarry Fire that erupted Saturday night near Fremont Peak is 90 percent contained, according to fire officials.

In an update late Sunday afternoon, officials said 67 fire personnel are working the fire with one KMAX helicopter assigned to the incident.

The fire, which officials said was started by a lightning strike, is estimated to be at 8.5 acres.

Firefighters battled two fires in Fremont County on Saturday evening. The Twin Fire off of CR 3A near the former Buckskin Joes and the Royal Gorge Park was less than one acre and was fully contained Saturday night.

From The Summit Daily (Lance Maggart):

Grand County’s Sugarloaf Fire, located in a remote segment of US Forest Service land southwest of the town of Winter Park, continued its slow growth over the weekend.

As of Sunday afternoon the fire was listed at 1,270 acres on the interagency information management website InciWeb. Sunday’s burn area represents only a slight increase from early last week when federal officials were listing the fire at slightly less than 1,200 acres. Fire officials calculate the Sugarloaf Fire’s containment at 20 percent and are still listing Aug. 31 as the estimated containment date.

“With the existing weather conditions, the fire has slowed its spread, but it continues to creep and smolder, back down slopes with some single tree torching,” stated fire officials. “With fire behavior today, we expect the fire to continue to spread in the upper reaches of the Darling Creek drainage.”

Officials stated they expect increased fire behavior and fire growth if the Sugarloaf blaze crosses Darling Creek. Weather in the Fraser Valley was overcast with scattered rain showers Saturday afternoon but according to officials no moisture had fallen in the area of the fire as of Sunday.

All necessary work for structure protection, including homes in the area as well as Henderson Mill and Mine infrastructure, has been completed, according to federal reports.

From The Aspen Daily News (Madeleine Osberger):

The Lake Christine Fire, which has burned 5,916 acres outside Basalt, was 30 percent contained as of Sunday night, according to Keith Brink, chief of fire operations, during a public meeting at Basalt High School.

That will allow for the release of about 200 people over the next few days, who can then be routed to some of the other wildfires that are raging across the west.

“We’re making some good headway on this fire,” Brink shared with a crowd of more than 70 attendees on Sunday evening. However, he cautioned that heavy smoke on the hillside will still be visible for weeks and asked that people not call 911 to report the fire.

Mike Almas, incident commander of the Northern Rockies Incident Management Team, told the audience at the high school: “The fuels have burned out around those larger fuels that you see as candles out there.”

Brink confirmed that the fire had spread about 200 acres between Saturday and Sunday morning, but said the kind of containment progress made over the weekend was expected to continue.

From The Denver Post (Kieran Nicholson):

SPRING CREEK FIRE

The human-caused Spring Creek fire, which has burned more than 60,700 acres in Costilla County, has destroyed at least 104 homes, fire officials said Monday night. A 52-year-old man from Denmark, Jesper Joergensen, has been arrested on suspicion of arson for starting the fire on June 27 about 9 miles northeast of Fort Garland. Joergensen is in the United States on an expired visa, according to an arrest warrant.

The fire has formed two distinct columns, fire officials said. The Rocky Mountain Incident Management team blue will manage the north column and the RMIM team black with manage the south column. U.S. Highway 160 remains closed in the area because of fire activity and Colorado 12 is also closed in the Cuchara Valley area.

On Monday, single-digit humidity, hot weather and winds prompted the National Weather Service to post a Red Flag Warning for “extreme fire behavior” in the area. Winds gusted to 30 mph and relative humidity dropped to 8 percent in some areas…

416 FIRE

“There are no remaining evacuation orders or pre-evacuation notices in place due to the 416 fire” as of late Monday afternoon, according to La Plata County officials.

The fire, which started on June 1 about 10 miles north of Durango, has burned about 51,000 acres and was 37 percent contained on Monday afternoon, fire officials said.

At 4 p.m. Monday, pre-evacuation notices were lifted for the Falls Creek and High Meadows subdivisions. The lifting of the notices affected 447 residences and five commercial structures…

HIGH CHATEAU FIRE

About 200 firefighters are battling the High Chateau fire, which has burned more than 1,300 acres about 7 miles northwest of Cripple Creek. The fire is burning through tall grass, ponderosa pine and mixed conifer, according to fire officials.

On Monday afternoon, the “fire behavior on the northeast portion of the fire increased and the fire spotted across High Meadows Drive,” according to firefighters. Single engine air tankers dropped multiple loads of fire retardant and helicopter drops were also carried out on Monday afternoon.

The fire has been moving north and east. There’s been no recent rain in the area and the fire’s size may continue to increase because of dry weather and fuel conditions. The active fire has been doing “short crown runs” and “group torching.” The blaze’s “resistance to control is high,” fire officials said. The fire started on June 29 and the cause is under investigation.

WESTON PASS FIRE

The fire grew to more than 6,400 acres Monday afternoon, fire officials said. The blaze, caused by a lightning strike, broke out on June 28 about 9 miles southwest of Fairplay. Firefighters expect the fire to grow as winds continue in the area. A containment date has been set for July 29. About 300 firefighters are battling the blaze.

CHEDSEY FIRE

A 5-acre fire was reported Monday in Jackson County, burning in Routt National Forest about 15 miles southwest of Walden. The Teal Lake campground was evacuated because of the fire, 80 firefighters are battling the blaze.

ADOBE FIRE

The 6-acre fire was reported Monday burning through timber about 6 miles west of Wetmore. Air support efforts on the fire included a lead plane, one heavy air tanker and two helicopters.

From The Farmington Daily Times:

Weekend storms that are expected to help douse some of the stubborn 416 Fire near Durango, Colorado, bring with them the possibility of flash floods in the fire zone.

The 416 fire area was put under a flash flood watch today by the National Weather Service in effect from this afternoon through this evening.

“Meteorologists are forecasting heavy rainfall over the burn area, which may lead to flash flooding and debris flows,” the fire team said. “Residents near this wildfire and along the Highway 550 corridor near Hermosa should prepare for potential flooding impacts. … The probability of rain increases through the weekend, with amounts ranging from .10 to .25 inches expected daily.”

[…]

Clearing the air

The fire has burned 54,129 acres and remains 45 percent contained as it keeps 383 personnel busy. The cost so far is $29.5 million.

The rains will be good news to local communities suffering from smoke pollution.

“As the amount of rain increases, it will penetrate the canopy, wetting fuels and making them less available to burn,” the team’s morning report said today. “Smoke impacts to surrounding communities should diminish rapidly as fuels become saturated.”

Crews are redeploying or removing equipment as needed, and some areas are still off-limits to the public.

From The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (Kate Langford):

A lightning-sparked wildfire burning seven miles northeast of Nucla has grown to 500 acres and is at 10 percent containment, according to officials with the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forests.

The Tabeguache Fire was first reported Friday night and grew to 155 acres on Saturday.

While firefighters were aided by rainfall over the weekend, the steep terrain and dry pinon-juniper and brush are a challenge for crews, said Spokesman John Abernathy.

Crews are currently focused on securing the south and west flanks of the fire, Abernathy said, because they border Bureau of Land Management and private lands.

From The Canon City Daily Record:

Fremont County officials are reporting that the Twin Fire near the Royal Gorge Park is now out and those firefighters are attending to the Quarry Fire.

The Quarry Fire is burning about 10 acres near Fremont Peak. According to the Fremont County Sheriff’s Office, the Eastridge Campground was evacuated as a precaution.

Here’s the release from NOAA:

Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) Seminar Series

Thursday, July 12, 2018 – 12:00 ET

Click here to register.

Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) Seminar Series, by the U.S. Global Change Research Program & in partnership with NOAA.

Speaker: Katharine Hayhoe, Atmospheric Scientist, Texas Tech University. Presenting remotely.

Sponsors: The U.S. Global Change Research Program and NOAA’s National Ocean Service Science Seminar; co-hosts are Katie Reeves (kreeves@usgcrp.gov) and Tracy.Gill@noaa.gov

Webinar Access: Mymeeting webinar uses phone and internet. Audio is only available over the phone: dial toll-free from US or CAN: 1-877-708-1667. Enter code 7028688# For the webcast, goto http://www.mymeetings.com Under “Participant Join”, click “Join an Event”, then add conf no: 744925156. No code is needed for the web. Be sure to install the WebEx application when logging in – the temporary application works fine.

Abstract: Human emissions of greenhouse gases now overwhelm the influence of natural drivers on Earth’s climate. How will our energy choices and resulting emissions affect temperature and precipitation, extreme events, sea level rise and more, over this century and beyond? What are the implications for meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement and avoiding dangerous change? And what about the potential for surprise, as we push the climate system harder and faster than any time in human history? Join Katharine as she highlights key results and new science from the first volume of the Fourth U.S. National Climate Assessment, and lays out what to expect from the second volume on how climate change is affecting regions and sectors across the U.S.

About the Speaker: Katharine Hayhoe is an atmospheric scientist whose research focuses on understanding what climate change means for people and the places where we live. She served as a lead author on the Second, Third, and Fourth National Climate Assessments and is also known for her communication and outreach efforts, such as the PBS Digital Series Global Weirding. This year, she was the recipient of the Stephen H. Schneider Award for Outstanding Climate Science Communication. Katharine has a B.Sc. in Physics and Astronomy from the University of Toronto and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Science from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. She is currently a Professor of Public Administration and directs the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University.

Subscribe to the OneNOAA Science Seminar weekly email: Send an email to OneNOAAscienceseminars-request@list.woc.noaa.gov with the word `subscribe’ in the subject or body. See http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/seminars/

From The Aspen Times (Alex Zorn):

On Friday, 214 fire personnel were working the fire with six hand crews (roughly 20 people per crew), 18 engines (varies with three to five fire personnel), two Type 2 helicopters, two Type 1 helicopters and a light helicopter that is used mainly for reconnaissance work, according to Friday’s on-duty public information officer Pat Thrasher.

One of the heavy Chinook helicopters used to fight the fire also has been stationed out of the Glenwood Springs Municipal Airport, according to Amy Helm, manager of the small airport south of town.

Friday was the first day that Single Engine Air Tankers, or SEATs, were not used to drop slurry, or retardant, on the fire line, though four were stationed at Rifle Airport on Friday just in case.

“We are supporting ground personnel, they are doing the hard work,” SEAT pilot Bob DeRosier said. “Anytime we can clear them to save structures, that’s what we are there for.”

While the SEATs were not necessary Friday, the tankers were used to drop slurry on the fire’s boundary to help solidify the fire line and allow ground crews access to the area.

From The Fairplay Flume:

As of Monday, July 2, the Weston Pass Fire (left) had grown to 6,417 acres. Park County issued mandatory evacuations for eight homes south of County Road 22 and for the Campground of the Rockies Association. Those living in the Black Mountain subdivision are under voluntary evacuation orders, and should be ready to leave at any time. For the High Chateau Fire (right) there were mandatory evacuations in place for Park Ridge, Doe Valley, Pike Meadow, Four Mile Ranch, Olson Slater Creek, and Ponderosa subdivisions between 8826 County Road 100 and County Road 102 and between County Road 71 and the Teller County line. The fire had grown to 1,422 acres.

From The Denver Post:

Containment estimates on the Spring Creek and 416 fires increased Friday as firefighters took advantage of improved weather conditions to close out the week.

SPRING CREEK FIRE

When rain came to the Spring Creek fire area, people stopped what they were doing and literally danced in the streets.

The fire in Costilla and Huerfano counties in southern Colorado has burned more than 105,000 acres and was 35 percent contained as of Friday, according to fire officials.

U.S. 160 over La Veta Pass is scheduled to reopen at 2 p.m. Saturday, according to the Colorado Department of Transportation. The pass has been closed since June 27…

416 FIRE

North of Durango the 416 fire has burned more than 54,000 acres, and containment was at 50 percent on Friday, fire officials said.

Increasing subtropical moisture is expected to move into southwest Colorado through the weekend, including afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Rain accumulation of about a quarter inch is forecast Saturday, with up to the same on Sunday, fire officials said.

“A quasi-monsoon pattern is setting up,” said Russell Danielson, a meteorologist and NWS spokesman. The current weather pattern is bringing much-needed moisture to the intermountain West in the form of isolated showers and storms.

A high-pressure change in the near future could allow more moisture to stream into the fire area as the summer progresses, Danielson said. Slow thunderstorms are expected in the area Monday and Tuesday.

WESTON PASS FIRE

The fire, started by lightning on June 28 southwest of Fairplay, has moved into the Buffalo Peaks Wilderness area, which is now closed to the public.

The fire has burned about 12,900 acres and was 32 percent contained as of Friday, fire officials said…

LAKE CHRISTINE FIRE

Mandatory evacuation orders were lifted at 7 p.m. Friday for the area north of Colorado 82 and west of El Jebel Road/Upper Cattle Creek road to the Garfield County line. The lifting of the order allows 150 families to return to their homes. All other evacuations orders remain in place.

The 5,263 fire, about one mile northwest of Basalt, is 0 percent contained. The fire roared on the night of July 4, destroying three homes. It was first reported on July 3 racing through extremely dry fuels.

At least 925 residences had been evacuated and potentially remain threatened in the Basalt, El Jebel and Missouri Heights areas.

From The Durango Herald (Ryan Simonovich):

About 250 homes were placed on pre-evacuation notice Friday afternoon for possible flooding around the 416 Fire burn area, but as of 8 p.m., no floods had been reported.

The notice was issued for homes near the Tripp Creek and Dyke Gulch drainages north of Durango. It included High Meadows Ranch, Falls Creek Ranch and Sanctuary subdivisions, as well as Durango Regency mobile home park, Hermosa Circle and Tripp Creek, said Megan Graham, spokeswoman for La Plata County.

Storm clouds developed Friday afternoon over the mountains north of Durango, but no significant rainfall resulted. Isolated thunderstorms producing heavy amounts of rainfall did occur west of the burn area in parts of Montezuma County.

The evacuation notice was issued because soil conditions in the burn area of the 416 Fire cannot hold moisture, which can trigger floods and debris flows. The pre-evacuation notices, issued about 3:45 p.m., were meant to prepare residents in the event they have to evacuate in a moment’s notice, Graham said.

Areas on alert were in zones that have historically experienced debris flows.

A flash-flood watch was issued by the National Weather Service until 9 p.m. Friday.

From The Grand Junction Daily Sentinel (Dennis Webb):

Jennifer Costich, spokeswoman for the Lake Christine Fire near Basalt, reported late Friday afternoon that firefighting efforts were progressing well over the course of the day in terms of building a fireline in some areas. The fire had burned 5,263 acres as of the latest estimate, destroying three homes earlier in the week. About 350 firefighters were working on it Friday afternoon, with the help of five helicopters.

Nearly 2,000 people have been evacuated as a result of the fire. The Garfield County Sheriff’s Office on Friday lifted a voluntary evacuation order applying to residents living in the Missouri Heights area of Garfield County, but other mandatory evacuation orders remain in place.

Hickenlooper was joined by U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., and U.S. Rep. Scott Tipton, R-Colo., at a stop at the Basalt fire that was to be followed by ground visits and flyovers of other blazes including the massive Spring Creek Fire in southern Colorado.

“Where you get this many fires at one time you obviously stretch your resources,” Hickenlooper said during the Basalt stop, according to a video the Aspen Times posted to its website.

He said the most firefighting assets ever deployed in Colorado may be currently active in the state, but he voiced confidence in the ability to access more if warranted…

The Divide Fire about 32 miles northwest of Craig had burned about 13,500 acres as of Friday afternoon.

That fire began June 29. Its cause remains under investigation.

After several days of minimal activity it flared up Wednesday, growing by nearly 7,000 acres, and several aircraft responded to help ground crews. The fire made an additional push Thursday evening, and hot, windy weather contributed to further growth Friday, authorities say.

BLM spokesman David Boyd said the fire burned a home June 29 and a seasonally occupied trailer on Wednesday. He said some structures are still threatened by the blaze, which is burning in sagebrush.

About 75 firefighters were fighting the blaze Friday, along with four single-engine air tankers and a helicopter.

Hickenlooper on Friday noted that it was the 24th anniversary of the day that 14 firefighters were killed while fighting a blaze on Storm King Mountain near Glenwood Springs.

“Everybody is very aware of that and sensitive to that. We’ve got to make sure the highest priority obviously is the safety of the citizens but also the people fighting the fires,” he said.

Hickenlooper also addressed the issue of the Lake Christine Fire’s reported cause — two people allegedly shooting tracer bullets at a Colorado Parks and Wildlife shooting range. While CPW has noted that the use of such bullets is never allowed at its shooting ranges, it has faced questions about allowing the shooting range to stay open even after Eagle County had gone into heightened, Stage 2 fire restrictions. The agency since has closed until further notice all its shooting ranges in northwest Colorado, including two in Mesa County.

Here’s a photo essay from Tucson.com. From the article:

More than 60 large blazes burn across the United States, mostly in the West, where whipping winds and increasing heat have made it easy for flames to spread.

Fires exploded in Northern California, Utah and other areas, where a prolonged and severe drought has desiccated forests.

Hotter, drier weather was forecast in Northern California, where thousands of firefighters were battling a wildfire that was already about three times the size of San Francisco.

Smoke from the fire temporarily halted flights into the resort town of Aspen, Colo. A tornado was reported Thursday south of Fairplay, a central Colorado town about 10,000 feet (3,000 meters) above sea level. Tornadoes are rare at that elevation and are seldom seen at any wildfire.

In Utah, scorching summer temperatures and winds quickly pushed flames through bone-dry vegetation. The 66-square-mile (171-square-kilometer) fire near Strawberry Reservoir has burned about 90 structures.

From The Denver Post (Kirk Mitchell):

Since the [Spring Fire] was ignited by a man cooking in a fire pit on June 27, wind currents out of the southwest have been mostly pushing the north end of the 100,000-acre-plus wildfire in a northeasterly direction. But a cold front swept in overnight turning the fire 180 degrees. It was a good thing for homes on the eastern flank, but an absolutely devastating turn of events for neighborhoods and pine forests on the western flank, Brack said.

With wind gusts of 35 mph, the fast-moving blaze defied measurement, Brack said. Officials say the total number of damaged homes stands at 119 and the number of demolished homes is 132, although authorities know those figures are a small percentage of the affected homes. Dangerous conditions have made it too difficult for county officials to go into neighborhoods and count how many homes have been damaged or destroyed. Tallies are expected to rise significantly.

Officially, the fire swept over an additional 15,000 to 20,000 acres at night, when wildfires normally lay down as temperatures drop.

“We’re seeing unprecedented fire behavior that pushed this fire through the night. Because the fire has been moving so fast we don’t know exactly know how big it has become,” Brack said.

The thermodynamics of this historic wildfire demand unusual tactics by firefighters. Crews have bulldozed trenches around subdivisions and homes, installed sprinkling systems and back-burned brush to create extremely wide fire breaks. But the blaze remains only 5 percent contained.

From The Denver Post (Kirk Mitchell):

Fire experts battling several wildfires across Colorado including the 416 fire north of Durango; Spring Creek fire in south central Colorado and the Lake Christine fire near Basalt are using terms like “unprecedented” and “unnatural” to describe fire dynamics this season. Wildfires typically burn uphill, not downhill. They lay down at night, not race faster than any man can run. A 300-foot-high tsunami of wildfire scorched 20,000 acres of heavy tall pine forests and grassland into stumps and ash, said Ben Brack, spokesman for the 103,000 Spring Creek fire…

“I have never seen this kind of fire behavior in my 40 years of fighting fires,” said Chief Scott Thompson, of the Basalt and Rural Fire Protection District, about the Christine Lake fire in Eagle County…

The unusual fire behavior triggered an emergency evacuation of the Missouri Heights trailer park at around 12:30 a.m. Thursday morning. Three homes were destroyed and the wildfire blew up from more than 300 acres to around 2,700 acres. The intense wildfire triggered power line explosions, he said.

“We’re kind of bummed. We feel like we failed…” Thompson said.

In the interest of safety, wildfire task forces have had to change up tactics, which has somewhat damaged morale, Brack said.

“We’re not used to being pushed back by fire. We like being right on the fire fighting it. But this fire is moving too fast. Grass fires are moving up to 35 miles an hour. No human can outrun that,” he said.

From The Cortez Journal (Stephanie Alderton):

The Burro Fire continued to lie down Friday after two days of rain in the San Juan Mountains.

Public information officer Kathy Russell said the fire remains at 4,593 acres with minimal activity after afternoon rains gave the area “a good soaking” on Thursday and Friday. On Saturday she said firefighters will continue to clear containment lines of any possible fuel sources, while the crews that have reached their 21-day limit prepare to demobilize. Despite its reduced movement, the fire will likely continue to smolder for a long time.

The weather has been favorable for firefighting efforts ever since temperatures started cooling down earlier this week, Russell said.

“The fire was calmed down already because of the increased humidity, and when that rain came, it calmed down even more,” she said. “We expect it to continue at very low levels.”

The National Weather Service predicted more afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures in the low 70s. Although both Thursday and Friday’s showers came with lightning, Russell said it doesn’t seem to have caused any more fire activity. Firefighters always leave exposed places “at the first sign of lighting,” according to a Saturday morning press release.

Crews have finished constructing a contingency line down to Colorado Highway 145, and the San Juan Hotshots who spearheaded that effort have left the scene, Russell said. Out of the remaining personnel, several planned to spend Saturday removing firefighting equipment from the area and bringing it to the U.S. Forest Service district office in Dolores.

According to the release, all equipment must be inventoried, cleaned and shipped to the Rocky Mountain Interagency Support Cache, which supplies wildland firefighting efforts across the West.

On Saturday there were about 45 firefighters working on the Burro Fire, but Russell said several personnel have completed their 21-day assignment and will be gone by Sunday. Members of the interagency incident management team are required to take some time off after three weeks at a fire.

Other personnel, including the two new crews that arrived this week, planned to continue clearing and widening containment lines. Although Russell said firefighters don’t expect the fire to grow as long as the rain continues, it remains officially at 40 percent containment.