Click the link to read the article on the Climate Prediction Center website:

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC
DISCUSSION

issued by

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

9 June 2022

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: Though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July-September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance).

During May, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continued across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, negative SST anomalies weakened during the past month, as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.6ºC to -0.9ºC during the past week. Subsurface temperatures anomalies (averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth) also weakened with values returning to near zero. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to at least ~75m depth from the central to the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures continuing at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the east-central equatorial Pacific, while upper level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific and was weakly enhanced over parts of Indonesia. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continues to reflect La Niña.

The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23. This is now in greater agreement with the forecast consensus this month, which also predicts La Niña to continue into the winter. However, it is clear that recent observed oceanic and atmospheric anomalies have weakened and this is anticipated to continue through the summer. Uncertainty remains over whether La Niña may transition to ENSO-neutral during the summer, with forecasters predicting a 52% chance of La Niña and a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. After this season, the forecast is for renewed cooling, with La Niña favored during the fall and early winter. In summary, though La Niña is favored to continue through the end of the year, the odds for La Niña decrease into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (52% chance in July/September 2022) before slightly increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (58-59% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor.

US Drought Monitor map June 7, 2022.

High Plains Drought Monitor map June 7, 2022.

West Drought Monitor map June 7, 2022.

Colorado Drought Monitor map June 7, 2022.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

A slow-moving cold front resulted in thunderstorms with heavy rainfall (locally more than 3 inches) across the central to southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and the Ozarks Region from May 31 to June 2. As this front progressed eastward, locally heavy rain also fell across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Mid-level low pressure, which has persisted over the northeastern Pacific through much of the spring, continued to enhance onshore flow and precipitation from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern Rockies. 7-day precipitation amounts from May 31 to June 6 exceeded 0.5 inches (locally 2 inches or more) over a broad spatial area of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, and northern Wyoming. After Hurricane Agatha made landfall on the southern coast of Mexico, its remnant low pressure system tracked northeast to the Yucatan Peninsula and reemerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico. This low pressure system, which became Tropical Storm Alex, brought more than 5 inches of rainfall to southern Florida and triggered flooding in Miami. Seasonal dryness prevailed across southern California and the Desert Southwest. 7-day temperatures, from May 31 to June 6, averaged above-normal across much of the eastern and southern tier of the U.S., while cooler-than-normal temperatures prevailed throughout the northern to central Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. Mostly dry weather was accompanied by above-normal temperatures across Alaska during late May into the beginning of June. Trade wind showers brought beneficial wetness to the Big Island of Hawaii. Short-term precipitation deficits continue to increase across Puerto Rico, following another drier-than-normal week…

High Plains

Heavy rainfall (1.5 to 3 inches, locally more) this past week resulted in a 1-category improvement to southeastern and central Kansas. More than 1.5 inches of rainfall this past week, along with soil moisture and long-term SPIs, supported a change from exceptional (D4) to extreme (D3) drought in parts of southwestern Kansas and adjacent southeastern Colorado. Widespread beneficial rainfall, exceeding 1 inch, this past week prompted a 1-class improvement to much of eastern Colorado. Swaths of heavy rainfall (more than 1 inch) also led to improvements of various Dx categories across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. Much above-normal precipitation during the past 30 to 90 days and soil moisture percentiles supported the elimination of moderate drought (D1) across much of west-central Wyoming…

West

The wet late spring continues to support improving conditions from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the Northern Rockies. Based on multiple indicators including springtime precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow, a broad 1-class improvement was made to eastern Washington with improving conditions also supported for parts of Oregon. The recent precipitation was enough to shift the long-term SPEIs out of exceptional (D4) drought in much of Klamath and Lake Counties of Oregon. In western Idaho, severe drought (D2) was improved to moderate drought (D1) based in part on the hydrologic response in the Weiser Basin. Southwestern Montana had a 1-class improvement, following recent wetness, soil moisture recharge, and 60-day SPI. Precipitation amounts of 1 to 3 inches along with below-average temperatures resulted in a 1-category improvement to parts of north-central Montana. Despite the recent cool pattern, 90 to 180-day SPIs supported 1-category degradation to parts of northern Montana. Impacts in this worsening drought area include required supplemental feeding, very dry soils, and dry stock ponds. Based on 90-day SPI and hydrology considerations in the Sevier River basin, extreme (D3) to exceptional (D4) drought was expanded across parts of Utah. Widespread severe to exceptional drought persists throughout much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and California. Hydropower production concerns at reservoirs in California and Nevada continue due to low water levels…

South

Heavy rainfall (1.5 to 3 inches, locally more) resulted in a 1-category improvement to west-central OK and northwestern TX, setting up a tight west to east gradient in Dx categories. In areas such as Custer County in western Oklahoma, that locally received as much as 8 inches of rainfall during the past week, a 2-category improvement was justified. This heavy rainfall extended southward into southeastern New Mexico and western Texas where parts of the Permian Basin, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend received more than 2 inches at the beginning of June. Farther to the east across parts of central and eastern Texas, along with northwestern Louisiana, increasing short-term precipitation deficits (2 to 4 inches), above-normal temperatures, and higher evapotranspiration rates resulted in a 1-category degradation. This expansion of abnormal dryness (D0) was supported by 30 to 60-day SPEI and these areas stand out on the EDDI product for flash drought. Eastern Texas and northern Louisiana will have to be closely monitored in subsequent weeks as short-term drought could rapidly develop. Locally heavy rain (more than 1 inch) this past week resulted in a slight decrease in D0 for northeastern Louisiana. On June 6, heavy rainfall extended south of the Ohio River which led to a general decrease in the small areas of D0 in Tennessee…

Looking Ahead

A couple of low pressure systems and trailing cold fronts are forecast to bring widespread, heavy rainfall to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through June 11. Along a nearly stationary front, a swath of heavy rainfall is forecast to spread southeastward from the Ozarks Region to the northern Gulf Coast on June 9 and 10. The wet pattern is likely to continue from the Pacific Northwest eastward to the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains through June 13, as another low pressure system emerges from the northeastern Pacific. Meanwhile, a heat wave is forecast to expand from California and the Desert Southwest eastward to the south-central U.S. during mid-June.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid June 14-18, 2022) depicts large probabilities (more than 70 percent) for above-normal temperatures across the southern Great Plains, lower Mississippi Valley, and Southeast. Below-normal temperatures are favored to persist across the Pacific Northwest. Below-normal precipitation is favored for the central to southern Great Plains, middle to lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Corn Belt. Probabilities for above-normal precipitation are elevated across the Pacific Northwest along with parts of the Southwest.

And just for grins here’s a gallery of early June US Drought Monitor maps for the past few years.

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Click the link to read the report on the NOAA website:

Key Points:

The average temperature of the contiguous U.S. in May was 61.9°F, which is 1.7°F above average, ranking in the warmest third of the 128-year record. Temperatures across the Northwest and northern Rockies were below average, with much of the Southwest, Deep South and locations east of the Mississippi River above average. Triple-digit heat scorched portions of the South throughout the month, setting a number of temperature records across Texas.

May precipitation for the contiguous U.S. was 3.17 inches, 0.26 inch above average, ranking in the wettest third of the historical record. Precipitation was above average across portions of the Northwest, northern and central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, eastern Gulf of Mexico coast and the Appalachians. Precipitation was below average from California to Texas and across portions of the Northeast. California experienced its driest January-May on record.

As of May 31, the largest fire on record in New Mexico, the Hermits Peak Fire, had consumed more than 315,000 acres and was 50 percent contained. Across all 50 states, 1.9 million acres have burned from January 1 through June 2 — more than two times the average for this time of year.

Several severe weather events occurred across the U.S. during May, producing 196 preliminary tornado reports. This is 71 percent of the 1991-2010 average of 276 tornadoes for the month of May.

According to the May 31 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 49.3 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought. Severe to extreme drought remains widespread across the western half of the contiguous U.S.

Other Highlights:
Temperature

For May, a persistent trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest contributed to Washington state ranking eighth coldest on record while the downstream ridge brought unseasonable warmth to the Deep South, resulting in Texas ranking second warmest.

The meteorological spring (March-May) average temperature for the Lower 48 was 52.2°F, 1.3°F above average, ranking in the warmest third of the record. Temperatures were above average from California to the Deep South and, in general, from the Mississippi River to the East Coast. Temperatures were below average from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Midwest. Rhode Island ranked fourth warmest while nine additional states across the Northeast, Southeast and Southern Tier ranked among their warmest 10 spring seasons on record.

Averaged over the first five months of the year, the contiguous U.S. temperature was 44.3°F, 1.0°F above the 20th-century average, ranking in the warmest third of the January-May record. Temperatures were above average from California to Texas and from the central Gulf Coast to New England. California ranked eighth warmest on record for this period. Temperatures were below average in parts of the Northwest and from the northern Plains to parts of the Midwest.

The Alaska statewide May temperature was 39.9°F, 2.1°F above the long-term average. This ranked among the warmest one-third of the 98-year period of record for the state. Temperatures were above average across much of southern mainland Alaska as well as the northern Panhandle and parts of the North Slope. Temperatures were near average across much of the rest of the state.

The Alaska spring temperature was 27.3°F, 3.3°F above the long-term average, ranking in the warmest third of the record for the state. Temperatures were above average across most of the state with the eastern Interior regions and parts of the Panhandle region near average for the season.

The year-to-date temperature for Alaska was 18.8°F, 3.0°F above the long-term average, ranking in the warmest third of the record for the state. Above-average temperatures were observed across most of the southern half of the state, as well as much of the West Coast.

Precipitation

A ridge of high pressure suppressed precipitation across the Southwest in May and resulted in Arizona ranking fifth driest for the month. Conversely, the Pacific Northwest received above average precipitation, and Washington ranked eighth wettest.

The U.S. spring precipitation total was 8.07 inches, 0.13 inch above average, ranking in the middle third of the March-May record. Precipitation was above average across parts of the Northwest, northern Plains, Great Lakes, central Plains, along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast and across parts of the Northeast for the season. Precipitation during March-May was below average from California to the High Plains and western Gulf Coast. North Dakota ranked fourth wettest while New Mexico ranked sixth driest for the spring season.

The January-May precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 11.48 inches, 0.91 inch below average, ranking in the driest third of the record. Precipitation was above average from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes and from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Northeast. Precipitation was below average across much of the West and Deep South, as well as portions of the central Plains during the January-May period. California ranked driest on record while Nevada, Utah and Arizona ranked third driest for this five-month period. North Dakota ranked fourth wettest for January-May.

Integrated across the state, precipitation across Alaska ranked fourth driest for May. Precipitation was above average across parts of the North Slope and eastern interior regions, but was generally very dry across much of the state throughout the month.

For the spring season, precipitation ranked 12th driest across Alaska although wetter-than-average conditions were observed across the Southeast Interior division. Precipitation was below average across much of the remainder of the state.

Despite the dry May and Spring season across Alaska, precipitation averaged across the state for the January-May period ranked in the wettest third of the record and was generally above average across much of southeastern Alaska and near or below average for much of the rest of the state. Record precipitation received in early 2022 contributed to the Southeast Interior division ranking wettest on record for the January-May period.

Other Notable Weather

Severe storms formed across the central Plains on May 4, producing several tornadoes including an EF3 near Lockett, TX. A line of severe storms, also known as a derecho, barreled across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest on May 12, causing extensive damage from at least 13 tornadoes and straight-line winds. The Upper Midwest was again impacted by severe weather over Memorial Day weekend, where more than 20 tornadoes were reported, including an EF2 in Forada, MN, and an EF3 in Altamont, SD.

Drought

According to the May 31 U.S. Drought Monitor report, 49.3 percent of the contiguous U.S. was in drought, down about 4.5 percentage points from the beginning of May. Drought intensified and/or expanded across the Southwest, West and parts of the Northeast. Exceptional drought expanded in southern Nevada, southern California, and in areas of the South, primarily along the Texas-New Mexico border. Areas of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rocky Mountains and High Plains saw drought conditions improve over the month of May. Moderate drought was introduced to portions of south-central Alaska, drought expanded across Puerto Rico and the extent of drought across Hawaii lessened during May.