New water cuts announced by feds after #ColoradoRiver Basin states miss deadline for agreement — #Colorado Newsline #COriver #aridification

Credit: The Congressional Research Service

by Chase Woodruff, Colorado Newsline
August 17, 2022

Federal officials on Tuesday moved to implement a series of emergency cuts to water use in the Colorado River Basin, after seven Western states missed a deadline to come up with a plan to do it on their own.

The cuts announced by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation include reductions in annual releases from Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, where water levels have been dropping precipitously amid a severe, 23-year-long “megadrought” driven by climate change. To prevent levels from dropping further, water allotments from Lake Mead to Arizona, Nevada and the country of Mexico will be reduced between 7% and 21% for 2023.

The Bureau of Reclamation, which is overseen by the Department of the Interior, said it “will continue to seek consensus support” among water users in the seven Colorado River Basin states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Nevada, Arizona and California — for substantial further cuts to offset projected shortages.

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“Every sector in every state has a responsibility to ensure that water is used with maximum efficiency,” Tanya Trujillo, the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for water and science, said in a statement. “In order to avoid a catastrophic collapse of the Colorado River system and a future of uncertainty and conflict, water use in the Basin must be reduced.”

Lake Mead is on the border of Nevada and Arizona. The Colorado River headwaters are located in Colorado.

In June, Bureau of Reclamation officials gave states a 60-day deadline to commit to cuts for 2023 before the federal government stepped in. The four “Upper Basin” states — Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — responded last month with a five-point plan that did not include any mandatory cuts, maintaining instead that the bulk of reductions should come from the Lower Basin, which uses nearly twice the amount of water as the Upper Basin.

Certain Upper Basin interests are holding the Bureau of Reclamation hostage at this point.

– Kyle Roerink, executive director of the Great Basin Water Network

Last-minute negotiations reportedly held in Denver last week failed to produce a broader agreement between Upper and Lower Basin states.

While facing the urgent need for short-term cuts, the seven states are also engaged in high-stakes negotiations over the future of the 100-year-old Colorado River Compact ahead of the 2026 expiration of its current Drought Contingency Plan. Forty million people in the Western U.S. rely on water supplies from the Colorado River, where flows have been diminished significantly by a climate-driven megadrought that scientists say is more severe than any dry spell the region has experienced in at least 1,200 years.

Rebecca Mitchell, director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, said in a statement Tuesday that the Upper Basin states had “met the moment” with their plan, which centers on voluntary pilot projects aimed at improving water conservation.

“Our focus now turns to implementation, including additional conservation efforts to maximize efficiency in all sectors,” Mitchell said. “However, this plan is ineffective without action in the Lower Basin. This will require leadership from the Department of the Interior through the Bureau of Reclamation, and bold action across the Basin.”

In a press release, however, the conservation group Utah Rivers Council faulted the Upper Basin states for failing to commit to reductions, calling their plan “a nothingburger letter designed to evoke the appearance of cutting water, while actually cutting no water whatsoever.”

“Certain Upper Basin interests are holding the Bureau of Reclamation hostage at this point,” Kyle Roerink, executive director of the Great Basin Water Network, said in a statement. “They have called the Bureau’s bluff time and again. Nothing has changed with today’s news — except for the fact that the Colorado River system keeps crashing.”

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Colorado Newsline is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Colorado Newsline maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor Quentin Young for questions: info@coloradonewsline.com. Follow Colorado Newsline on Facebook and Twitter.

Drought eases in Gunnison County — The Gunnison Country Times #GunnisonRiver #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Colorado Drought Monitor map August 9., 2022.

Click the link to read the article on the Gunnison Country Times website (Alan Wartes). Here’s an excerpt:

Better than expected monsoonal rains this summer have not led Gunnison County out of the region’s persistent drought — but the moisture has gone a long way to lessen its severity. Beverly Richards, water resource specialist for the Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District, shared the message with the Gunnison County Commissioners on Tuesday. As of last week, over 96% of Gunnison County was listed in the National Integrated Drought Information System as falling in the category of “moderate drought,” one step above the least severe rating of “abnormally dry.” The 30-day outlook calls for continued improvement, as forecasts predict at least a 33% chance of above normal precipitation in the next month.

Richards said the wetter-than-forecasted summer has done little to improve the water storage outlook at Blue Mesa Reservoir, however. Current forecasts call for the lake to drop to 33% of capacity heading into winter, up only slightly from the 29% estimate in early summer. The water level in the reservoir peaked at 48% in July and sits at 44% of capacity.

Grizzly Reservoir to be drained next summer for rehab work: Repairs planned for dam, tunnel, outlet works — @AspenJournalism

Grizzly Reservoir will be drained next summer for a rehabilitation project on the dam, tunnel gates and outlet works. The reservoir serves as the collection bucket for water from the surrounding drainages before it’s diverted through the Twin Lakes Tunnel to the Front Range. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

Grizzly Reservoir, the high-mountain lake above Aspen formed by damming Lincoln and Grizzly creeks, will be drained next summer for repairs to the dam, tunnel and outlet works.

After spring runoff next year, Twin Lakes Reservoir and Canal Company will draw down the reservoir so workers can install a membrane over the steel face of the dam, which was constructed in 1932 and is corroded and thinning, according to a May report on the feasibility of the dam rehabilitation.

The report, by RJH Consultants, Inc. of Englewood, included an inspection and evaluation of the infrastructure, and presented different options for rehabilitation. Half the cost of the study — $50,000 — was funded by the Colorado Water Conservation Board.

The project will also replace the gates that control the flow of water into the Twin Lakes Tunnel and repair the outlet works that release water down Lincoln Creek. According to the report, the outlet works have issues with cracks, holes and seepage, and the more-than-80-year-old tunnel gates have problems with leakage, are difficult to operate and require significant maintenance every year.

“The purpose of the rehabilitation of the dam is to address dam safety concerns associated with the corroded and thinning upstream-slope steel facing, uncontrolled seepage, and operational problems with the outlet works,” the report reads.

Twin Lakes officials expect the project to be completed in October 2023. They will also draw down the reservoir this month to weld a small test portion of the dam membrane to see how it fairs through the harsh winter at 10,500 feet. That work is scheduled to begin Aug. 22 and the reservoir will be refilled in October.

“That infrastructure is aging and it’s time to do some rehab work on it,” said Twin Lakes Reservoir and Canal Company Board President Kalsoum Abbasi.

Grizzly Dam is considered a high hazard dam by the Division of Water Resources. That does not mean it’s likely to fail, but it means loss of life would be expected if the dam did fail. The last state inspection in 2021 found the dam satisfactory — the highest rating — and said full storage capacity was safe.

The report estimated a nearly $7 million price tag for the rehabilitation work. Twin Lakes plans to get a CWCB loan for some of the cost and will pay the remainder with money raised from assessments on its water users.

Large trees, bad projects: The Biden administration must protect old-growth forests and large trees on public lands — Wild Earth Guardians

Old growth forest. Photo credit: Wild Earth Guardians

Click the link to read the release on the Wild Earth Guardians website (Andrew Rothman):

Imagine the largest tree you ever saw. Maybe you remember looking up, trying to see all the way to its crown. Maybe you recall wanting to stretch your arms around the tree. How many people did it take to encircle it? Maybe you remember the ecosystem you and the tree were in. Regardless of where your memory of this tree takes you, it’s likely you can recall it vividly.

This, to me, is because big trees are impactful. They resonate. They are magical. There is history and wisdom in large trees that we humans will never fully be able to access. While you’re there admiring the giant for just a moment, the giant has taken in and modified the ecosystem where it stands for 100, 200, 300 years or more. The tree has been habitat for who knows how many species. It’s converted carbon dioxide to oxygen, held soil in place, filtered water, and maintained moisture regimes.

Contemporary research shows that large trees actually transfer nutrients via mycorrhizal networks to their own offspring and exchange nutrients with other species of trees to help themselves and others survive. And we know these large trees store massive amounts of carbon, 17.2 billion metric tons in federal forests alone.

On Earth Day 2022, the Biden administration ordered the federal government to inventory mature and old-growth forests on federal lands and identify threats to the large trees. Unfortunately, this executive order did not ban logging of mature and old-growth trees. Though the president’s order noted America’s forests absorb more than 10 percent of the nation’s total greenhouse gas emissions, the order doesn’t identify logging as a threat to these same trees. And while there’s lots of nice talk about old-growth forests and their value in reducing the impacts of climate change, project after project coming out of the U.S. Forest Service specifically targets these trees that are fundamental to our survival. Many of these projects are being proposed in the name of saving the forest from forest fires. As a biologist, I’ve never quite grasped the convoluted rationale that by cutting down large trees we will somehow save them or the ecosystem benefits they provide.

As a supporter of WildEarth Guardians, you know that Guardians is steadfast in its work to conserve and protect old-growth and mature trees and forests across the West, from ponderosa pines to sequoias to grand firs. This is why we’re currently challenging the U.S. Forest Service in eastern Oregon and southeastern Washington, where at the 11th hour Trump axed restrictions on cutting old, large trees across six national forests via the removal of the Eastside Screens. And in northwest Montana where the Forest Service is targeting some of Montana’s oldest—and wettest forests—on the Kootenai National Forest with a massive logging and roadbuilding project in crucial habitat for an isolated, fragile population of about 25 grizzly bears in the Yaak Valley. This is why we’re tracking proposals across the West, Gila to Glacier, and through the Sierras and Cascades, that might allow logging old, large trees. And this is why we’ve joined the Climate Forests Campaign, which brings together dozens of groups to push the Biden administration and the federal agencies that manage public lands to enact strong, lasting rules that protect old-growth and mature trees from logging.

To expose the terrible projects being planned that threaten big, old, important trees, the Climate Forests Campaign has identified a Top 10 list of bad logging projects being pushed from coast to coast.

We can’t keep saying old-growth forests and large trees are important—but then allow millions of acres of forests, including tens of thousands of acres old-growth, to be turned into board feet. Speak for the trees, and let the Biden administration know they need to stop talking out of both sides of their mouths and must protect old-growth forests and large trees on public lands.

Aspinall Unit operations update: Bumping down to 1450 cfs August 18, 2022 #GunnisonRiver #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

Blue Mesa Reservoir is the largest storage facility in Colorado in the Upper Colorado River system. Prolonged drought and downriver demand is shrinking the reservoir. Credit: Tom Wood, Water Desk

From email from Reclamation (Erik Knight):

Releases from the Aspinall Unit will be decreased from 1550 cfs to 1450 cfs on Thursday, August 18th. Releases are being decreased as rainfall has helped put river flows above the baseflow target on the lower Gunnison River. The actual April-July runoff volume for Blue Mesa Reservoir came in at 68% of average.

Flows in the lower Gunnison River are currently over the baseflow target of 900 cfs. River flows are expected to continue at or above the baseflow target for the foreseeable future.

Pursuant to the Aspinall Unit Operations Record of Decision (ROD), the baseflow target in the lower Gunnison River, as measured at the Whitewater gage, is 900 cfs for June, July and August.

Currently, Gunnison Tunnel diversions are 1050 cfs and flows in the Gunnison River through the Black Canyon are around 550 cfs. After this release change Gunnison Tunnel diversions will still be around 1050 cfs and flows in the Gunnison River through the Black Canyon will be near 450 cfs. Current flow information is obtained from provisional data that may undergo revision subsequent to review.

Upper Colorado River Commissioner (Rebecca Mitchell) Statement on Sustaining Colorado River Basin System — CWCB #COriver #aridifcation

Becky Mitchell, the state of Colorado’s top water official. (Source: Colorado Water Conservation Board)

Here’s the release from the Colorado Water Conservation Board (Sara Leonard):

The Bureau of Reclamation released its Colorado River Basin August 2022 24-Month Study, which sets annual operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead, both of which have reached critically low levels. Below is a statement from Colorado River Commissioner Becky Mitchell:

“The Colorado River Basin is facing unprecedented challenges, and the 40 million people who rely on this critical resource are depending on the Basin states and federal government to develop inclusive, sustainable solutions that protect the system and its infrastructure now and into the future. I am proud to say that the Upper Division States are meeting the moment with our 5 Point Plan, and our focus now turns to implementation, including additional conservation efforts to maximize efficiency in all sectors. However, this plan is ineffective without action in the Lower Basin. This will require leadership from the U.S. Department of the Interior through the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, and bold action across the Basin. Downstream of Lake Mead and Lake Powell, depletions must come into balance with available supply. Colorado stands ready to work with our partners in the Lower Basin, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, and the U.S. Secretary of the Interior as they make the difficult decisions that are necessary to sustain the system.”

Hay supplies tight; Record hay prices — Beef Magazine

Click the link to read the article on the Beef Magazine website (Derrell Peel). Here’s an excerpt:

The August Crop Production report released recently by USDA-NASS included forecasts for hay production in selected states and the U.S. Total production of alfalfa hay in 2022 is forecast at 49.1 million tons, down 0.3 percent from 2021 levels and 13.6 percent below the ten-year average from 2011-2020. All other hay production for 2022 is forecast at 67.7 million tons, down 4.6 percent year over year and down 7.4 percent from the ten-year average. Total 2022 U.S. hay production is forecast at 116.8 million tons, down 2.9 percent from one year ago and down 10.1 percent from the 2011-2020 average. Alfalfa and other hay prices are forecast at record levels in 2022.

Drought reduced hay production in 2021 with continued impacts in 2022. May 1 hay stocks were down 6.9 percent year over year but were down 16.9 percent from the 2011-2020 average.The total hay supply for the 2022-2023 hay crop year (May-April) is the sum of May 1 (beginning) hay stocks and 2022 hay production. The total hay supply is projected to be down 3.4 percent year over year and is down 11.0 percent from the ten-year average (Table 1)…

Table 1. May 1 Hay Stocks, Hay Production and Total Hay Supply, Top Ten States and U.S., 2022. Forecast; USDA-NASS, Crop Production, August 2022

With the growing season winding down amid continuing drought, the 2022 hay supply data illustrate why so much herd liquidation has occurred this year. It also speaks to the continuing challenges that cattle producers will face to get through the winter before the 2023 growing season could provide the next opportunity for improved forage conditions.

FEDS: #Drought-stricken #Arizona, #Nevada to get less from #ColoradoRiver — The #Aurora Sentinel #COriver #aridification

Brad Udall: Here’s the latest version of my 4-Panel plot thru Water Year (Oct-Sep) of 2021 of the Colorado River big reservoirs, natural flows, precipitation, and temperature. Data (PRISM) goes back or 1906 (or 1935 for reservoirs.) This updates previous work with @GreatLakesPeck.

Click the link to read the article from the Associated Press via tje Aurora Sentinel website (Suman Naishadham and Sam Metz). Here’s an excerpt:

For the second year in a row, Arizona and Nevada will face cuts in the amount of water they can draw from the Colorado River as the West endures an extreme drought, federal officials announced Tuesday…That’s not all. In addition to those already-agreed-to cuts, the Bureau of Reclamation said Tuesday that states had missed a deadline to propose at least 15% more cuts needed to keep water levels at the river’s storage reservoirs from dropping even more. For example, officials have predicted that water levels at Lake Mead, the nation’s largest reservoir, will plummet further. The lake is currently less than a quarter full.

“The states collectively have not identified and adopted specific actions of sufficient magnitude that would stabilize the system,” Touton said.

After putting last year’s burden on the agricultural industry, Arizona officials will have to decide whether to spread additional pain to growing cities that rely on the river. The cuts are not expected to have a tangible effect on Nevada, which has already implemented the region’s most aggressive conservation policies, including grass bans and rebate programs…

Under Tuesday’s reductions, Arizona will lose slightly more water than it did this year, when 18% of its supply was cut. In 2023, it will lose an additional 3%, an aggregate 21% reduction from its initial allocation. Mexico will lose 7% of the 1.5 million acre-feet it receives each year from the river. Last year, it lost about 5%. The water is a lifeline for northern desert cities including Tijuana and a large farm industry in the Mexicali Valley, just south of the border from California’s Imperial Valley. Nevada also will lose water — about 8% of its supply — but most residents will not feel the effects because the state recycles the majority of its water used indoors and doesn’t use its full allocation. Last year, the state lost 7%.

#ColoradoRiver #water Twitter posts August 16, 2022

Note that these #CORiver Tier 2a cuts for AZ, NV, MX are only slightly more than the current cuts under Tier 1:
AZ: 592 kaf (+80 kaf vs Tier 1)
NV: 25 kaf (+4 kaf)
MX: 104 kaf (+24 kaf)

So that's 108 kaf of additional cuts to the Lower Basin under 2a.

1/2 https://t.co/EbZ6gcUx2u

— Jeff Lukas (@LukasClimate) August 16, 2022

These are just the previously agreed cuts under the Interim Guidelines and DCP. No additional cuts have been imposed yet. I would say feds have a month or two to unilaterally come up with numbers or do nothing at all. I don't see unilateral cuts coming in Dec without time to plan

— Hayley Namorada (@Mis2Ks) August 16, 2022

NEWS: Colorado River Basin states fail to meet federal deadline to submit plans to get to 2-4 maf in conservation.
Absent state agreement, the federal government is also not detailing how it plans to achieve that unprecedented level of conservation needed to protect reservoirs.

— Luke Runyon (@LukeRunyon) August 16, 2022

The feds talked tough about stepping in to save Lake Mead and Lake Powell if states could not agree to cuts. But was that just an empty threat? https://t.co/ltwHzg3eY8 via @azcentral

— Joanna Allhands (@joannaallhands) August 16, 2022

.@usbr wanted today's Tier 2 shortage declaration to look like they were coming down hard on the states. But they did not. This shortage was spelled out in agreements signed in 2007 and 2019. It was expected. For months.

No federal hammer was dropped. https://t.co/icruE62QCe

— Luke Runyon (@LukeRunyon) August 16, 2022

Correct. No new cuts. Rather it’s Implementation of previously agreed upon “cuts” under DCP and 2007 Guidelines. https://t.co/cEsVTaMwXr

— Jeffrey Kightlinger (@8thGenCA) August 16, 2022

Tier 2 shortage in Colorado River is important & a tough loss. But it's expected & agreed-upon under DCP. It doesn't tell us anything new, & it doesn't get us to BoR's 2-4 maf reduction. That will require new deals between water users & basin states or unilateral federal action.

— Rhett Larson (@rhett_larson) August 16, 2022

Statement from ADWR Director Tom Buschatzke and CAP GM Ted Cooke in response to the U.S. Department of the Interior announcement of actions to protect the Colorado River system and 2023 Operating Conditions for Lake Powell and Lake Mead https://t.co/nqFK5hWH3R @CAPArizona pic.twitter.com/wegNoEF8vL

— ADWR (@azwater) August 16, 2022

NEW: It's official, the federal government is issuing new mandatory water cutbacks.

The lower Colorado River basin will see its first-ever "tier 2a" shortage. The latest forecasts show Lake Mead will drop just below 1,048 ft. at the beginning of next year.

Here are the cuts. pic.twitter.com/fGFNztDMBl

— Alex Hager (@awhager) August 16, 2022

“Lake Mead will operate in its first-ever Level 2a shortage condition in CY 2023” California will not be required to water savings contributions under this operating condition….

— Meena Westford (@h2oexecutive) August 16, 2022

If you're just tuning in to today's water news, you can get some background in this thread.

In June, the federal government told states to conserve a huge amount of water, and they only had 60 days to sort out a plan. That deadline is today.https://t.co/vGt47ZCm0y

— Alex Hager (@awhager) August 16, 2022

"The Bureau’s latest forecast, while bleak, is no surprise. It confirms what we already know — without swift, responsible action, the Colorado River Basin is nearing a system-wide crash." Read Water for Colorado's statement on today's @usbr announcements: https://t.co/nGGHbpgExT

— WaterForColorado (@water4colorado) August 16, 2022

"The cuts are significant, but I think even more significant is the rapidity with which the reservoirs on the Colorado River are declining. And we have clear indications that these cuts won't be enough." @JnPitt @audubonsociety https://t.co/hFGiO3ZuK1

— Stephanie Sy (@TheStephSy) August 17, 2022

Feds require additional water cuts as the Colorado River sinks deeper into drought and overuse, https://t.co/nbiJuZAfeh

— Denver Post Breaking (@DenverPostBrk) August 16, 2022

“As these discussions continue, we urgently call on everyone who relies on #CoRiver water, including communities across #SoCal, to prepare for reduced supplies from this source, permanently. This is not simply a drought that will end," said GM @adelh2o. https://t.co/YNxiyuPkdj pic.twitter.com/SDJcikWQb1

— MWD of SoCal (@mwdh2o) August 16, 2022

Arizona loses one-fifth of its Colorado River allocation under new federal drought plan https://t.co/hHO9NxhmP4 via @azcentral

— Deb Krol (@Debkrol) August 16, 2022

.@azwater & and @CAPArizona say that negotiations among AZ, NV and CA to reduce Colorado River use failed, so the feds will create the plan

The translation here is: California wouldn't cut enough, and it's their fault pic.twitter.com/klotBhD0sQ

— Jim Small (@JimSmall) August 16, 2022

With all these imaginary reservoir elevations, my data dashboards just got a lot more complex.

— Lauren Steely (@MadreDeZanjas) August 16, 2022

"This much uncertainty hurts us all…" https://t.co/qvmkSmLzZT

— Heather Hansman (@hhansman) August 16, 2022

Unfortunately, there was not a lot of “new or threatening actions” spelled out today… a lot of “let’s work it out together and a need to cooperate with Federal help. #cor https://t.co/8am1hP2kmh

— Meena Westford (@h2oexecutive) August 16, 2022

Nevada's water allotment will be cut by 8% next year as Lake Mead is set to operate in a Tier 2 shortage condition.

Still, water managers say the state is in "a relatively enviable position," as usage is already below that allotment. Via @s_golonka: https://t.co/8a9LWhtv1w

— Nevada Independent (@TheNVIndy) August 16, 2022

The @USBR says there's still time for "consensus" on Colorado River cuts. Looks like the basin states will have at least until the spring to negotiate an emergency deal. The move shows just how seriously federal officials take the threat of litigation by ag communities.

— Joshua Emerson Smith (@jemersmith) August 16, 2022

And here's an analysis of the errors. "Approximately 60% to 75% of all forecasts made between October and May of the year preceding the water year being forecast overestimated actual future inflows, and the range of inaccuracy in forecasts was approximately 7 maf." pic.twitter.com/3gNgfpY4D8

— Deirdre Des Jardins (@flowinguphill) August 16, 2022

Upper Colorado River Basin states can expect 'substantial releases' in reservoirs to help lower basin states, say Feds
https://t.co/d29wVKTCru

— Sky-Hi News (@SkyHiNews) August 17, 2022

SNWA boss John Entsminger hoped there would be more specifics about what the federal government would do if states can't agree on Colorado River cuts.

Instead, he said federal officials "danced around it the whole time" during today's announcement.https://t.co/uWP3t7nJG1

— Colton Lochhead (@ColtonLochhead) August 17, 2022

Federal officials announced today that they will study potential modifications to the Glen Canyon Dam, but they were light on details.

Plus: Gov. Cox says push to build the controversial Lake Powell Pipeline may be slowed down if drought continues https://t.co/qwObB30Xwl

— Zak 🦦 Podmore (@zak_podmore) August 17, 2022

Thank you @POTUS ! The Inflation Reduction Act provides unprecedented resources to help @Interior @usbr meet unprecedented challenges associated with climate change and drought. https://t.co/0Pq11RT1Ky

— Tanya Trujillo (@AsstSecTrujillo) August 16, 2022

Interior Department Announces Actions to Protect #ColoradoRiver System, Sets 2023 Operating Conditions for #LakePowell and #LakeMead #COriver #aridification

Click the link to read the release on the USBR website:

As the worsening drought crisis continues to impact communities across the West, the Department of the Interior today announced urgent action to improve and protect the long-term sustainability of the Colorado River System, including commitments for continued engagement with impacted states and Tribes. The Bureau of Reclamation also released the Colorado River Basin August 2022 24-Month Study, which sets the annual operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead in 2023 in light of critically low reservoir conditions.

Prolonged drought and low runoff conditions accelerated by climate change have led to historically low water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead. Over the last two decades, Department leaders have engaged with Colorado River Basin partners on various drought response operations. However, given that water levels continue to decline, additional action is needed to protect the System.

In addition to the actions being announced today, the Biden-Harris administration is making unprecedented investments in drought resilience and water management. President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law makes a historic $8.3 billion investment to address water and drought challenges and invest in our nation’s western water and power infrastructure, while rebuilding our existing projects to withstand a changing hydrology. Additionally, the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act includes $4 billion in funding specifically for water management and conservation efforts in the Colorado River Basin and other areas experiencing similar levels of drought.

“The worsening drought crisis impacting the Colorado River Basin is driven by the effects of climate change, including extreme heat and low precipitation. In turn, severe drought conditions exacerbate wildfire risk and ecosystems disruption, increasing the stress on communities and our landscapes,” said Deputy Secretary Tommy Beaudreau. “The Biden-Harris administration is taking an all-of-government approach to mitigating the drought, and the Interior Department is committed to using every resource available to conserve water and ensure that irrigators, Tribes and adjoining communities receive adequate assistance and support to build resilient communities and protect our water supplies.”

“Every sector in every state has a responsibility to ensure that water is used with maximum efficiency. In order to avoid a catastrophic collapse of the Colorado River System and a future of uncertainty and conflict, water use in the Basin must be reduced,” said Assistant Secretary for Water and Science Tanya Trujillo. “The Interior Department is employing prompt and responsive actions and investments to ensure the entire Colorado River Basin can function and support all who rely on it. We are grateful for the hardworking public servants who have dedicated their lives to this work, and who are passionate about the long-term sustainability of Basin states, Tribes, and communities.”

“The solution to our challenges relies on the bedrock of a century of collaboration and partnership in the Colorado River Basin. But as water stewards, it is our responsibility to protect the system and the millions of Americans who depend on it. Today, Reclamation starts the process on actions we can take to deliver on those responsibilities,” said Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Calimlim Touton. “Reclamation remains fully committed to working in a consensus manner across the Upper and Lower Basins, with Tribes, and with the country of Mexico. I am confident that, by working together, we can achieve meaningful change toward a sustainable future for the river that serves as the lifeblood of the American West.”

2023 Operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead

Given the 23-year ongoing historic drought and low runoff conditions in the Colorado River Basin, downstream releases from Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams – which created Lakes Powell and Mead – will be reduced again in 2023 due to declining reservoir levels. In the Lower Basin, the reductions represent the second year of additional shortage declarations, demonstrating the severity of the drought and critically low reservoir conditions.

The key determinations from the August 2022 24-Month Study include:

Lake Powell will operate in the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier in water year 2023 (Oct. 1, 2022, through Sept. 30, 2023). The 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell’s Jan. 1, 2023, water surface elevation to be 3,521.84 feet – 178 feet below full pool (3,700 feet) and 32 feet above minimum power pool (3,490 feet). The August 24-Month Study projects that Lake Powell will likely release 7 million acre-feet in water year 2023 with the potential for Powell releases to range between 7 to 9.5 maf during water year 2023, depending on hydrologic conditions, as Lake Powell and Lake Mead balance storage contents under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier.

The Department will evaluate hydrologic conditions in April 2023 and will implement the Interim Guidelines Section 7.D by limiting water year 2023 releases (with a minimum of 7.0 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023.

<br>

Lake Mead will operate in its first-ever Level 2a Shortage Condition in calendar year 2023 (Jan. 1, 2023, through Dec. 31, 2023). The August 24-Month Study projects Lake Mead’s Jan. 1, 2023, operating determination elevation to be 1,047.61 feet, which is calculated by taking Lake Mead’s projected end of calendar year 2022 physical elevation (1,040.78 feet) and adding the 480,000 acre-feet of water held back in Lake Powell to Lake Mead’s capacity to maintain operational neutrality. The projected elevation of 1,047.61 feet reflects a Level 2a Shortage Condition, within the DCP elevation band of 1,045 and 1,050 feet, with required shortage reductions and water savings contribution for the Lower Basin States and Mexico, pursuant to Minute 323, as follows:

Arizona: 592,000 acre-feet, which is approximately 21% of the state’s annual apportionment

Nevada: 25,000 acre-feet, which is 8% of the state’s annual apportionment

Mexico: 104,000 acre-feet, which is approximately 7% of the country’s annual allotment

There is no required water savings contribution for California in 2023 under this operating condition.

In May 2022, drought operations to protect Lake Powell were implemented under the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement, and Glen Canyon Dam releases were reduced under the 2007 Interim Guidelines, which together provided approximately 1 million acre-feet of additional water to help protect water levels at Lake Powell. Building on these important responsive actions, Reclamation will begin efforts to modify low reservoir operations at both Lake Powell and Lake Mead to be prepared to reduce releases from these reservoirs in 2024 to address continued drought and low runoff conditions in the Basin.

Reclamation will continue to implement the applicable provisions of the 2007 Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and coordinated operations for both reservoirs: Minute 323 to the 1944 U.S. Mexico Water Treaty; and the 2019 Drought Contingency Plans.

Call for Basin-Wide Conservation

In recent months, Reclamation has shared updated information documenting the increasing risks that will continue to impact Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Reclamation’s “Protection Volume Analysis” details that, depending on future snowpack and runoff, a range of actions will be needed to stabilize elevations at Lake Powell and Lake Mead over the next four years (2023-2026). The analysis shows, depending on Lake Powell’s inflow, that the additional water or conservation needed ranges from 600,000 acre-feet to 4.2 maf annually.

In June 2022, Commissioner Touton testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources and called on water users across the Basin to take actions to prevent the reservoirs from falling to critically low elevations that would threaten water deliveries and power production. Reclamation is using the best available science and actively collaborating with water users across the Basin to determine the best ways to meet this increased conservation need.

Accordingly, in addition to undertaking preliminary work to develop the post-2026 strategies and operations, as several reservoir and water management decision documents expire at the end of 2026, Reclamation will immediately initiate a number of administrative actions in the Basin.

In the Upper Basin, Reclamation will:

Take administrative actions needed to authorize a reduction of Glen Canyon Dam releases below 7 million acre-feet per year, if needed, to protect critical infrastructure at Glen Canyon Dam.

Accelerate ongoing maintenance actions and studies to determine and enhance projected reliability of the use of the river outlet works, commonly referred to as the bypass tubes, at Glen Canyon Dam for extended periods.

Support technical studies to ascertain if physical modifications can be made to Glen Canyon Dam to allow water to be pumped or released from below currently identified critical and dead pool elevations.

Continue to work with the Basin states, Basin Tribes, stakeholders and partners to be prepared to implement additional substantial releases from Upper Basin Reservoirs to help enhance reservoir elevations at Lake Powell under the Drought Contingency Plan’s Drought Response Operations Agreement.

Invest in system conservation and voluntary agreements.

Consider other operational actions to establish flexibility in Upper Basin operations at Reclamation facilities.

In the Lower Basin, Reclamation will:

Take administrative actions needed to further define reservoir operations at Lake Mead, including shortage operations at elevations below 1,025 feet to reduce the risk of Lake Mead declining to critically low elevations.

Prioritize and prepare for additional administrative initiatives that would ensure maximum efficient and beneficial use of urban and agricultural water, and address evaporation, seepage and other system losses in the Lower Basin.

Support technical studies to ascertain if physical modifications can be made to Hoover Dam to allow water to be pumped/released from elevations below currently identified dead pool elevations.

Invest in system conservation and voluntary agreements.

Consider other operational actions to establish flexibility in Lower Basin operations at Reclamation facilities.

The Department’s approach will continue to seek consensus support and will be based on a continued commitment to engage with partners across the Basin states, Tribes and the country of Mexico to ensure all communities that rely on the Colorado River will provide contributions toward the solutions.

The August 2022 #ColoradoRiver 24-month Operating Plan is hot off the presses from USBR #COriver #aridification

Click the link to access the operating plan on the USBR website.

The operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead in this August 2022 24-Month Study is pursuant to the December 2007 Record of Decision on Colorado River Interim Guidelines for Lower Basin Shortages and the Coordinated Operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead (Interim Guidelines), and reflects the 2022 Annual Operating Plan (AOP). Pursuant to the Interim Guidelines, the August 2021 24-Month Study projections of the January 1, 2022, system storage and reservoir water surface elevations set the operational tier for the coordinated operation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead during 2022.

The August 2021 24-Month study projected the January 1, 2022, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,575 feet and at or above 3,525 feet and the Lake Mead elevation to be at or above 1,025 feet. Consistent with Section 6.C.1 of the Interim Guidelines the operational tier for Lake Powell in water year 2022 is the MidElevation Release Tier.

The August 2021 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2022 Lake Mead elevation to be at or below 1,075 feet and at or above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, a Shortage Condition consistent with Section 2.D.1.a will govern the operation of Lake Mead for calendar year (CY) 2022. In addition, Section III.B of Exhibit 1 to the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) Agreement will also govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2022.Efforts to conserve additional water in Lake Mead under a 2021 Lower Basin Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to facilitate near-term actions to maintain the water surface elevation of Lake Mead will also take place in CY 2022.

In light of the prolonged drought, low runoff conditions, and depleted storage at Lake Powell, the Department of the Interior implemented an action under Sections 6 and 7.D of the 2007 Interim Guidelines specifically reducing the Glen Canyon Dam annual releases to 7.00 maf in water year 20221. This action was undertaken in conjunction with the 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan actions which together are anticipated to add approximately one million additional acre-feet of storage to Lake Powell by April 2023. The Department of Interior and Reclamation will work to determine the manner in which to operate Glen Canyon Dam to ensure the benefits of these actions are preserved.

The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 will result in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with routine operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for “as if” this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. The elevations listed in this report reflect the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described.

Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projects the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powell’s operations in water year 2023 will be governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August 24-Month Study:

• The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines;

• Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023;

• Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the May 2022 action. Any Lake Powell balancing release volume will be calculated as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead in WY 2022; and

• The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024.

Consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations.

Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead.

The August 2022 24-Month Study projects the January 1, 2023 Lake Mead elevation, determined as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead in water year 2022, to be below 1,050 feet and above 1,045 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, a Shortage Condition consistent with Section 2.D.1.b will govern the operation of Lake Mead for calendar year 2023. In addition, Section III.B of Exhibit 1 to the Lower Basin DCP Agreement will govern the operation of Lake Mead for calendar year 2023. Efforts to conserve additional water in Lake Mead under the 2021 MOU will also continue in CY 2023.

Current runoff projections into Lake Powell are provided by the National Weather Service’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center and are as follows.

The observed unregulated inflow into Lake Powell for the month of July was 0.491 maf or 51 percent of the 30-year average from 1991 to 2020. The August unregulated inflow forecast for Lake Powell is 0.250 maf or 66 percent of the 30-year average. The preliminary observed 2022 April through July unregulated inflow is 3.75 maf or 59 percent of average.

In this study, the calendar year 2022 diversion for Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) is projected to be 1.08 maf. The calendar year 2022 diversion for the Central Arizona Project (CAP) is projected to be 0.997 maf. Consumptive use for Nevada above Hoover (SNWP Use) is projected to be 0.238 maf for calendar year 2022.

Due to changing Lake Mead elevations, Hoover’s generator capacity is adjusted based on estimated effective capacity and plant availability. The estimated effective capacity is based on projected Lake Mead elevations. Unit capacity tests will be performed as the lake elevation changes. This study reflects these changes in the projections. Hoover, Davis, and Parker Dam historical gross energy figures come from PO&M reports provided by the Lower Colorado Region’s Power Office, Bureau of Reclamation, Boulder City, Nevada. Questions regarding these historical energy numbers can be directed to Colleen Dwyer at (702) 293-8420.