Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority and #EagleRiver Water & Sanitation District boards of directors will consider new and increased fees during their July 28 board meetings

Two men fish the Eagle River just above its confluence with the Colorado River in Dotsero. Homestake Partners released 1,667 acre-feet of water down Homestake Creek and into the Eagle River in September 20210to test how a release would work in a compact call.
CREDIT: BETHANY BLITZ/ASPEN JOURNALISM

From email from the Eagle River Water & Sanitation District (Diane Johnson):

The Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority and Eagle River Water & Sanitation District boards of directors will consider new and increased fees during their July 28 board meetings at 8:30 and 11:30 a.m., respectively.

he proposed new fees are for seven different labor-intensive one-time services provided directly to individual customers, such as transfer-of-service, account reactivation, and new construction applications. With no current fees, the direct and indirect costs associated with the work to review and process such requests is distributed across all customers, rather than the individual account requesting the service.

The proposed new fees cover services that customers need within a defined timeframe which causes staff to prioritize the work and leaves limited hours available to complete tasks that benefit all customers. Such work has required hiring additional staff, so fee revenue collected would recover associated costs and lessen the cost of added personnel.

The district and authority generally serve properties from East Vail through Cordillera (plus Minturn for wastewater services only). The proposed fees would apply to all accounts within the service areas and would only be assessed when such individual services are requested.

The boards will also consider increasing the cost of seven existing fees that have been the same since about 2018 to recoup associated costs. The proposed new and increased fees include:

The public hearings are the first item on the respective agenda for this week’s board meetings. The staff memo and proposed fee resolution are available online in the board packet for the authority and district. Both board meetings are held at the ERWSD office at 846 Forest Road in Vail and are open to the public.

If approved, the new and increased fees would be effective Aug. 1. All fees will be further reviewed as part of the annual budget process this fall. Any further changes would be proposed for the authority and district 2023 budgets to take effect next year.

For more information, visit http://www.erwsd.org or contact district customer service at 970-477-5451.

Carbon-Reduction Plans Rely on Tech That Doesn’t Exist: Instead of scaling up #renewable energy, researchers promote unproved ideas — Scientific American #ActOnClimate

Global proposed (grey bars) vs. implemented (blue bars) annual CO2 sequestration. More than 75% of proposed gas processing projects have been implemented, with corresponding figures for other industrial projects and power plant projects being about 60% and 10%, respectively. sBy <a href="//commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:RCraig09" title="User:RCraig09">RCraig09</a> – <span class="int-own-work" lang="en">Own work</span>, CC BY-SA 4.0, Link

Click the link to read the article on the Scientific American website (Naomi Oreskes). Here’s an excerpt:

Stop and think about this for a moment. Science—that is to say, Euro-American science—has long been held as our model for rationality. Scientists frequently accuse those who reject their findings of being irrational. Yet depending on technologies that do not yet exist is irrational, a kind of magical thinking. That is a developmental stage kids are expected to outgrow. Imagine if I said I planned to build a home with materials that had not yet been invented or build a civilization on Mars without first figuring out how to get even one human being there. You’d likely consider me irrational, perhaps delusional. Yet this kind of thinking pervades plans for future decarbonization…

The IPCC models, for instance, depend heavily on carbon capture and storage, also called carbon capture and sequestration (either way, CCS). Some advocates, including companies such as ExxonMobil, say CCS is a proven, mature technology because for years industry has pumped carbon dioxide or other substances into oil fields to flush more fossil fuel out of the ground. But carbon dioxide doesn’t necessarily stay in the rocks and soil. It may migrate along cracks, faults and fissures before finding its way back to the atmosphere. Keeping pumped carbon in the ground—in other words, achieving net negative emissions—is much harder. Globally there are only handful of places where this is done. None of them is commercially viable…

One site is the Orca plant in Iceland, touted as the world’s biggest carbon-removal plant. Air-captured carbon dioxide is mixed with water and pumped into the ground, where it reacts with the basaltic rock to form stable carbonate minerals. That’s great. But the cost is astronomical—$600 to $1,000 per ton—and the scale is tiny: about 4,000 tons a year. By comparison, just one company, tech giant Microsoft (which has pledged to offset all its emissions), produced nearly 14 million tons of carbon in 2021. Or look at carbon capture at the Archer Daniels Midland ethanol plant in Illinois, which, since 2017, has been containing carbon at a cost to the American taxpayer of $281 million (more than half the total project cost); at the same time, overall emissions from the plant have increased. And the total number of people employed in the project? Eleven. Meanwhile numerous CCS plants have failed. In 2016 the Massachusetts Institute of Technology closed its Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies program because the 43 projects it was involved with had all been canceled, put on hold or converted to other things.

It’s obvious why ExxonMobil and Archer Daniels Midland are pushing CCS. It makes them look good, and they can get the taxpayer to foot the bill. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, passed last year, contained more than $10 billion for efforts to develop carbon-capture technologies. In contrast, the act contained merely $420 million for renewable energy—water, wind, geothermal and solar.

Science Senator. It’s called science.

#Colorado Water conservation board approves $17 million for #drought resilience and aging #water infrastructure projects — The Ark Valley Voice

West Drought Monitor map July 19, 2022.

Click the link to read the article on the Ark Valley Voice website (Jan Wondra). Here’s an excerpt:

During its bi-monthly meeting on Wednesday this week, the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB) – the state’s water policy agency, considered and unanimously approved the Governor’s request for $17 million to kick-start local-level implementation of the recently updated Colorado Water Plan…

This newly transferred funding is on top of an additional $3 million previously authorized to the state’s Water Supply Reserve Fund. The recommendation to significantly increase the total amount of funding ($20 million) for basinwide and local water projects comes from severance tax revenue.

It’s time for another monthly #ClimateChange indicator update. Sorry — @ZLabe #ActOnClimate

Yes, #Utah got ‘lackadaisical’ about #water, Gov. Spencer Cox concedes. Here’s why he remains hopeful. From landmark reforms to state water laws to big investments in infrastructure, he believes it’s not too late for the #GreatSaltLake — The Salt Lake Tribune

Click the link to read the article on the Salt Lake Tribune website (Leia Larsen). Here’s an excerpt:

Cox lauded nearly $500 million invested in water-saving measures this year. But the governor conceded that much of that spending would not have been possible without federal pandemic aid. HB242, for example, is a sweeping bill that will require meters on nearly every secondary water connection across the state. Its $250 million price tag was funded by the American Rescue Plan Act…While secondary meters will give Utahns a better understanding of how much water they are using outdoors — and provide water districts a mechanism to charge for that use — the governor acknowledged agriculture still gulps the lion’s share of the state’s water…

On making a difference using agriculture, Cox noted that one of the most significant pieces of legislation he signed last session was HB33. That bill allows water rights holders to temporarily lease their water to the state to benefit the environment, including the Great Salt Lake…The state is negotiating with several partners to secure donated or leased water to boost stream flows and ensure that water tickles all the way to Utah’s iconic but beleaguered terminal lake. In a follow-up request sent to the Utah Department of Natural Resources, a spokesperson confirmed the state is not currently leasing water to benefit the Great Salt Lake because the details of those agreements are still getting ironed out.

Utah Rivers map via Geology.com

#Wyoming options limited in #ColoradoRiver #drought effort: Under a federal deadline to commit additional #water to downstream states, Wyoming officials say they can’t get specific about volumes — @WyoFile #GreenRiver #COriver #aridification

A paddler plies the placid waters of the upper Green River, with the Bridger Wilderness of the Wind River Mountains as a backdrop. The Green River is the main tributary to the troubled Colorado River. (Angus M. Thuermer Jr/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile.com website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

Wyoming joined the three other Upper Colorado River Basin states this week in telling federal officials they will take on additional water conservation efforts, but cannot commit to sending specific volumes of water to downstream states in 2023.

“We stand ready to participate in and support efforts, across the Basin, to address the continuing dry hydrology and depleted storage conditions,” Upper Colorado River Commission Executive Director Charles Cullom stated in a July 18 letter to the Bureau of Reclamation. “The options the Upper Division States have available to protect critical reservoir elevations are limited.”

The federal government in June asked for firm, voluntary water conservation commitments among all seven Colorado River Basin states that would keep an additional 2 million to 4 million acre feet of water flowing into Lake Powell and Lake Mead in 2023. That’s the estimated volume of additional water necessary to keep the levels at Powell and Mead high enough to continue generating hydroelectricity next year. Wyoming is one of four upper-basin states governed by the Colorado River Compact.

Map credit: AGU

For comparison, the Flaming Gorge Reservoir straddling the Wyoming-Utah border has a storage capacity of 3.8 million acre feet of water.

If unsatisfied with the voluntary commitments, the Bureau of Reclamation and Interior Department are prepared to use their federal authority to implement mandatory water conservation actions, according to Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton. Touton issued the challenge to Colorado River Basin states in June, giving them 60 days to submit their voluntary water savings commitments. States have until Aug. 15 to respond.

But for Wyoming, one of the four Upper Basin states along with Utah, Colorado and New Mexico, it’s impossible to either quantify or guarantee a specific volume of water savings under the ongoing Colorado River Drought Response Operations Plan, according to Wyoming State Engineer Brandon Gebhart.

Mother Nature is the biggest reason behind that, he said. As a headwaters state, Wyoming’s role in the Colorado River system is that of a supplier, and that supply varies wildly depending on seasonal snowfall, evaporation and soil moisture — even more so than volumes of water used by ag producers, industry and municipalities.

“We really are unable to commit to any specific volumes by the deadline [Aug. 15],” Gebhart said. “The [water supply estimating] process requires forecasting data that isn’t available until late winter and early spring of 2023.”

Further, Gebhart added, the federal government lacks the authority to force those with water rights in Wyoming to curtail their water use, and the state is reluctant to do so because it would require coordination among thousands of water rights users. “We would much rather have the water rights users decide how they want to be involved than for us to go in and regulate.”

Flaming Gorge Reservoir on the Utah side near the dam in September 2021. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Wyoming and other Upper Colorado River Basin states should feel an obligation to do a better job of accounting for their water use compared to seasonal water availability, Great Basin Water Network Executive Director Kyle Roerink said. That would help those states set more specific targets in contributing to the system-wide drought response plan.

“For right now, the response from the Upper Basin states has been ‘hell no, we’re not giving up a drop,’” Roerink said.

Colorado River crisis

The continuing climate change-driven aridification across much of the West has depleted Colorado River reservoirs to historic lows, threatening hydroelectric power generation and water supplies to some 40 million people who rely on the river system. The surface elevation at Lake Powell fell to 3,522 feet in June, the lowest since construction of the Glen Canyon Dam in the 1960s. Water intake ducts at the dam’s hydroelectric power station would no longer function if the lake’s surface level reaches 3,490 feet, according to the Bureau of Reclamation.

Increasing demand for water throughout the southwest combined with climate forecasts suggest the situation will only become worse for those dependent on the river system.

“The conditions we see today, and the potential risks we see on the horizon, demands that we take prompt action.” Interior Department Assistant Secretary Tanya Trujillo told reporters in May.

Boat ramps stretch to the water at Flaming Gorge Reservoir in September 2021. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

The Bureau of Reclamation owns and operates a large complex of reservoirs along the Colorado River and its tributaries that serve as a water banking system. That includes the Flaming Gorge Reservoir on the Green River in Wyoming and Utah. The Green River, the chief tributary to the Colorado River, originates in the Wind River Range, flows to Flaming Gorge Reservoir, then connects with the Colorado River in Canyonlands National Park in Utah.

In June, the Bureau of Reclamation announced it would release an extra 500,000 acre feet of water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir this year, dropping the surface level by an estimated 15 feet sometime in the fall. The agency also plans to withhold 480,000 acre feet of water in Lake Powell, while Colorado River Lower Basin users agreed to increased water conservation measures.

Federal and state officials worry that more drastic measures may be required to maintain critical water levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead next year and for the foreseeable future.

“Despite the actions taken by the [Bureau of Reclamation], significant and additional conservation actions are required to protect the Colorado River system infrastructure and the long-term stability of the system,” Commissioner Touton testified to the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in June.

More conservation tools
Rather than committing to sending specific volumes of water downstream, the four Upper Basin states say they need the Interior’s help in pushing Congress to reauthorize the 2014 System Conservation Pilot Project. The program offered payments to water rights users who voluntarily cut back on their normal water diversions.

“[Reauthorization] is a Congressional action,” Gebhart said. “And because [the SCPP program] is voluntary, we don’t know what amount of participation will occur.”

U.S. Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyoming) and John Hickenlooper (D-Colorado) said they would bring a reauthorization bill to the Energy and Natural Resources Committee this month.

Other elements of the Upper Colorado River Commission’s counter-offer, or “5 Point Plan,” include asking the federal government to fund better water measurement, monitoring and reporting tools. Combined with reauthorizing the SCPP, Wyoming and other Upper Colorado River Basin states can build a more “permanent” program to manage water demand, according to Gebhart and the Wyoming Attorney General’s Office.

Setting up a comprehensive conservation plan is the best Wyoming can offer for now, said Chris Brown, Wyoming Senior Assistant Attorney General for the office’s water division.

“It’s something we can do to try to help the system within the time period that the [Bureau of Reclamation] commissioner asked for,” Brown said. “We’ll set that up and do what we can to try to incentivize reductions in use.”

Committing specific volumes of water savings is “logistically impossible” to do by the Aug. 15 deadline, he added.

Meantime, Gebhart said he and other Wyoming officials will continue to work within Gov. Mark Gordon’s Colorado River Working Group and with all the Colorado River Basin stakeholders in figuring out how Wyoming can help stabilize the river system under worsening conditions.

DUSTIN BLEIZEFFER

Dustin Bleizeffer is a Report for America Corps member covering energy and climate at WyoFile. He has worked as a coal miner, an oilfield mechanic, and for 22 years as a statewide reporter and editor primarily… More by Dustin Bleizeffer

West Drought Monitor map July 19, 2022.

#Arizona #Water Leaders Lay Out Plans For Facing The Emerging Crisis In The #ColoradoRiver System — Arizona Department of Water Resources #COriver #aridification

Graphic credit: USBR

Click the link to read the article on the Arizona Department of Water Resources website:

Arizona’s water leaders on July 13 laid out the path forward for contending with the extraordinarily difficult choices facing all of the Colorado River system’s water users over the next several months.

In a sobering presentation to the Arizona Reconsultation Committee (the panel assembled to help develop an Arizona perspective on new operational guidelines for the river system by 2026), Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke and Central Arizona Project General Manager Ted Cooke described the unprecedented challenges facing the system currently.

In addition, they gave the ARC members a first glimpse into the negotiations among Colorado River states on how they will contend with enormous water-delivery cutbacks.

Alan Butler of the Bureau of Reclamation provided an analysis of the river system’s current hydrology and an analysis of the enormous volumes of water that must be left in Lake Powell and Lake Mead to protect the system from descending to below critical levels.

Butler told the ARC members that the system currently is at 35 percent of capacity, down from 41 percent of capacity at this time last year. He observed that Lake Mead will almost certainly be in a Tier 2 shortage condition in 2023.

“That continued declining condition is predicted to continue,” said Butler.

On June 14, Bureau Commissioner Camille Touton said at a U.S. Senate committee hearing that the Colorado River system would need between 2-4 million acre-feet of additional conservation in the two reservoirs to achieve stability. Butler emphasized that his analysis of the critical surface levels that needed to be maintained did not suggest specific amounts that each Basin States would need to conserve.

“We wanted to quantify the magnitude of what it would take to keep the reservoirs at those levels, but we’re not attributing that to anyone or any one basin.”

CAP GM Cooke recalled Commissioner Touton’s comments to the Senate in which she observed that the necessary volumes could not be achieved by any one entity, such as agriculture or municipal water providers, or by any one state.

Map of the Colorado River drainage basin, created using USGS data. By Shannon1 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0

She said that “everyone had to participate across the Basin, and that includes Upper Basin and Lower Basin.”

“It doesn’t take much diving into the math to realize that this is the case,” said Cooke.

By itself, he added, Arizona has committed to conserving more than 800,000 acre-feet in the system in 2022 alone, when all the various commitments like the Drought Contingency Plan and the 500+ Plan and volunteer efforts are totaled.

Butler’s presentation illustrated one of the most serious developments affecting the system – the fact that very low volumes of water are making it into the river system despite near-normal volumes of snowpack in the river’s main source of moisture, the Colorado Rockies.

Director Buschatzke laid out for the audience the actions that he anticipates will be needed to stabilize the system.

He particularly recalled Commissioner Touton’s June 14 testimony in which she asserted the federal government’s commitment to protecting the system, even if the Basin States could not come to an agreement among themselves.

“Her answer was, ‘yes, we will protect the system.”

“We’re hearing a consistent story from the United States that they are going to protect the system, that everyone needs to contribute, and that while priorities will be respected to some degree, they are not going to be the outcome at the end of the day.”

With considerable emphasis, Buschatzke also declared he would vigorously oppose any effort to make the “junior” status of most Central Arizona Project water the solution to the Colorado River system’s current crisis:

“We in Arizona are not going to walk out of any room in which an agreed-upon outcome is CAP going to zero. That is not something that Ted and I will ever agree to.

“If they want to force that outcome on us we will deal with those impacts, but we are not going to voluntarily send CAP into the mud.”

(Sen. Mark Kelly Questions Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton During Hearing On Extreme Drought In The Western United States)

Why nighttime heat [daily low temperature] matters so much: All-time daily temperature records have been smashed in #Colorado this summer, but here’s why the rising overnight minimums are so concerning — @BigPivots #ActOnClimate

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

Whew – it was another hot night [July 20-21, 2022], the worst in a string of hot July nights in metropolitan Denver. The temperature, according to my cell phone, did not fall below 80 degrees until 1 a.m. In my office, it was even hotter, approaching 84.

Yes, you are correct. I have no air. I have a full-house fan, which draws colder air in through windows and ushers the hot air out through the attic of this 133-year-old bungalow. To work effectively, night-time temperatures must get down into the 60s. The phone told me that overnight it got down to 74.

Summer nights have been warming. We pay attention to the record highs, and we’ve had some of those. But cooling off at night can make all the difference.

“In general, we know that summer minimum temperatures are rising,” said Peter Goble, a climatologist with the Colorado Climate Center. This summer’s overnight lows so far in 2022 haven’t been setting new high marks – but they’re very, very close.

“It’s not unprecedented but it’s right up there with the all-time maximums (for overnight lows) that have been observed,” he said after checking data for several locations.

For example, Denver’s Central Park Station – this is where the former Stapleton airport was located – had a temperature of 69 the night when supposedly it got only to 74 here at my home/office in Olde Town Arvada. No record – but it was pushing the extreme. Only 12 times have temperatures exceeded 70 degrees.

These night-time hot temperatures serve as a strong reminder of the relatively narrow band of temperatures at which humans can feel comfortable — and function. Older people – I guess that includes me – are less accommodating of both heat and cold. We’re also at more risk.

“It’s not a single hot night that hurts. It’s the accumulation of multiple hot days and nights. That’s where we are right now,” said Nolan Doesken the morning after that hot, hot night. “Heat waves don’t start claiming human lives until they’re three or four days in a row.”

The former Colorado state climatologist, Doesken has a vivid memory of the hottest night on record in Fort Collins, where he lives. He had driven solo that day 1,100 miles from Muskegon, Mich. That’s a grueling drive for anybody, but for Doesken, a lover of all things weather since a child growing up in the Midwest, most notable was the complete absence of clouds.

Doesken has an air conditioner as backup but tries to rely upon a whole-house fan. “When we get down to 62 or 63 overnight, we can be very comfortable with our full-house fan.”

Some people have no air conditioning. Swamp coolers work well in dry climates, but they, too, have their limits.

Elizabeth Babcock, the climate team manager for the city of Denver, reports she weatherized her older home – an imperative for keeping cool temperatures in and hot temperatures out – and installed an evaporative, or swamp, cooler. They can cool the interiors of buildings, but they do a poor job of filtering impurities such as come with wildfire smoke.

The better answer? Air-source heat pumps, which can filter the air while cooling homes in summer and warming them in winter.

“I think we have to be strategic in how we think about cooling technologies,” said Babcock.

Denver, along with the rest of the globe, has been heating up. A 2017 study by the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization found the number of 100-plus days per year had more than doubled in the 21st century. With continued high emissions of greenhouse gases, Denver should expect mid-century high daytime temperatures 2 degrees hotter on average than experienced in El Paso, Texas, in the latter decades of the 20th century.

By century’s end, Denver’s high temperatures will be on par with those of Tucson in recent years, according to the study.

Babcock believes that the nighttime warming temperatures experienced in Denver already make that study look dated. “We are seeing impacts of climate change here today, and we really weren’t built for this new climate.”

In making Denver more resilient to rising temperatures, Denver conducted a study to identify neighborhoods most vulnerable to extreme heat, both day and night.

Vulnerable populations can be identified in various ways, including physical disabilities and age. Children under 5 and those over 70 tend to be most vulnerable. So are people with diabetes. And do they have access to transportation?

Even if transportation is available, the better option is to make homes less vulnerable. “There are lots and lots of reasons that people would not want to leave their homes to go to a cooling shelter,” said Babcock.

See Denver’s heat-vulnerability mapping.

Globeville, which is bifurcated by Interstate 70, is one of Denver’s neighborhoods most vulnerable to extreme heat. Photo/Allen Best

The city is rolling out several programs to enhance resiliency to extreme heat. One will yield 2,000 trees over the next three years in the Westwood, Globeville, Elyria, and Swansea neighborhoods, among the city’s most vulnerable. The trees and plantings along with care will be provided for several years.

Another measure to temper what is called the heat-island effect of a city is a requirement governing roofs of 25,000 square feet or more. Instead of black tar, which absorbs and retains heat, the new roofs must use materials that have greater reflectivity. They should cool off more quickly at night.

The city is also aggressively pursuing electrification to lower emissions, but that also reduces the heat in urban areas by replacing engines that generate heat with electricity. “When you think about things like internal combustion vehicles, they produce a lot of heat. Electrification will temper the heat somewhat.

“We’re looking at all potential tools available to us to address the extreme heat,” Babcock said.

No data are readily available about how many deaths in Colorado can be attributed to heat. Axios this week reported more than 1,900 people had died in Spain and Portugal from the heat there during the preceding week. The Environmental Protection Agency points to some statistical approaches that more than 1,300 deaths occur per year in the United States due to extreme heat. The New York Times reported that 100 million Americans this week were under heat advisories or warnings. That included Austin, the capital of Texas, where temperatures had reached 100 or more for the 40th straight day on Wednesday.

In a June story titled, “How Extreme Heat Kills, Sickens, Strains and Ages Us,” the Times told of research by scientists. “One thing is for sure, scientists say: The heat waves of the past two decades are not good predictors of the risks that will confront us in the decades to come,” the newspaper’s Raymond reported. Their research, he went on, has now focused on the effects on ordinary people.

Like many meteorologists, Doesken was not immediately sold on climate change. The accumulating evidence of hot nights persuaded him. Goble, at the Colorado Climate Center, explains why night-time high temperatures are so important to understand.

“Summertime minimum temperatures do not vary naturally from year-to-year as much as summertime maximum temperatures, or temperatures in other seasons. For this reason, it is easier to spot long-term trends, such as our current warming trend, looking at summertime minimum temperature data,” he explains.

Other times of year, including winter, weather is altogether more variable from day to day and week to week.

In summer, there’s more variability in daytime temperatures than at night. So when we have a marked increase in nighttime temperatures, that is a strong indicator of a warming climate consistent with the theory of global warming.

Theory in this case means not a hypothesis, but rather a cohesive and complex idea that explains much. Einstein’s theory of relatively, for example, remains intact after a century of people looking for flaws. Similarly, theory of global warming explains much of what is being observed.

“The easiest way to identify long-term trends is in summer nighttime temperatures,” says Goble.

“We are seeing significantly warmer night-time minimum temperatures in summers of the 21st century as compared to the 20th century.”

ABOUT THE CHART: It comes from the National Weather Service, an agency within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. One of the meteorologist in Boulder explains that the chart was assembled using a gridded data set from 500 stations, of which only 180 are currently active. See more at this website, and if you really want to get into the weeds, you can go to this place that explains the computation in greater detail.

SEE ALSO: A story on Climate Central report on cities, extreme heat and humidity: https://www.denverpost.com/2016/07/14/colorado-summers-getting-hotter-stickier/

Big #Water Pipelines, an Old Pursuit, Still Alluring in Drying West — Circle of Blue

The Second Los Angeles Aqueduct Cascades, located in Sylmar, just east of the I-5 Freeway near Newhall Pass, in the San Gabriel Mountains foothills of the northeastern San Fernando Valley. The Cascades are the terminus of the Los Angeles Aqueduct, which brings water 338 miles (544 km) from the Owens Valley to Los Angeles. Construction of the aqueduct began in 1908 and completed in 1913. The cascades are a Los Angeles Historic-Cultural Monument (HCM #742), a California Historical Landmark (#653), and a Historic Civil Engineering Landmark. By Los Angeles (talk · contribs) – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4882240

Click the link to read the article on the Circle of Blue website (Brett Walton):

  • As the region’s climate becomes drier, more pipelines are being proposed despite the economic and climate risks.
  • Pipelines that are advancing the fastest are rural and tribal projects backed by federal funding.
  • The proposals echo a century of large-scale water engineering that ushered in the modern era in the American West.
  • Across the country’s western drylands, a motley group of actors is responding to the region’s intensifying water crisis by reviving a well-worn but risky tactic: building water pipelines to tap remote groundwater basins and reservoirs to feed fast-growing metropolitan areas, or to supply rural towns that lack a reliable source.

    Government agencies, wildcat entrepreneurs, and city utilities are among those vying to pump and pipe water across vast distances — potentially at great economic and environmental cost. Even as critics question the suitability of the water transfers in a new climate era, supporters in California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, the federal government, Indian tribes, and other states are prepared to spend billions on water-supply pipelines.

    Lake Powell Pipeline map via the Washington County Water Conservancy District, October 25, 2020.

    The pipelines range in length from several dozen miles to several hundred and the largest are intended to transport tens of millions of gallons per day. Among these is the 140-mile Lake Powell Pipeline, a roughly $2 billion project that aims to deliver 86,000 acre-feet (28 billion gallons) each year to Washington County, in Utah’s southwest corner.

    Not all the projects are cut from the same cloth. Because of the daunting expense, lengthy permitting process, and legal battles, projects with federal backing have a leg up. The infrastructure bill signed by President Joe Biden last November includes $1 billion for rural water supply projects in the western states. Many of these projects, including one in progress in eastern New Mexico, were authorized more than a decade ago.

    The infrastructure bill also includes $2.5 billion for tribal water rights settlements, which typically include a water-supply component. The Navajo-Gallup water pipeline, now under construction in northwest New Mexico to supply the Navajo Nation, Jicarilla Apache Tribe, and the city of Gallup, is part of the San Juan River water rights settlement.

    Owens Valley

    The current batch of pipeline proposals traces its lineage to a century of engineering and building mammoth water supply projects that ushered in the modern era of the American West. State and federal canals snake the length of California. Los Angeles bullied its way into the Owens Valley in the 1910s, eventually siphoning the valley’s water through an aqueduct. A few years later, San Francisco reached into Hetch Hetchy Valley for a reservoir and pipeline. The Central Arizona Project, which broke ground in the 1970s, was built to lift 1.5 million acre-feet of water — almost 500 billion gallons a year — more than a half mile in elevation along its 336-mile course to supply Phoenix and Tucson. In Colorado, at least 11 major projects pierce the Rockies, transferring water to the high-growth Front Range. States west of the 100th meridian would not have been able to attract millions of residents or develop their commercial and agricultural sectors without these water projects.

    As the region’s climate becomes drier, more diversions are being proposed despite the economic and climate risks. Large-scale engineering retains its appeal and pipeline options are doggedly pursued by state and local agencies, and a band of self-styled water entrepreneurs.

    Potential Water Delivery Routes. Since this water will be exported from the San Luis Valley, the water will be fully reusable. In addition to being a renewable water supply, this is an important component of the RWR water supply and delivery plan. Reuse allows first-use water to be used to extinction, which means that this water, after first use, can be reused multiple times. Graphic credit: Renewable Water Resources

    Renewable Resources, a firm backed by former Colorado Gov. Bill Owens, wants to pump groundwater from the San Luis Valley to Front Range cities that are mushrooming with new subdivisions. A competing outfit, Water Horse Resources, is led by Aaron Million, who has dreamed for more than a decade of piping more Colorado River water to the Front Range. The potential water source for Water Horse is some 500 miles away: Flaming Gorge Reservoir, which straddles Wyoming and Utah. Another Front Range project in the Fort Collins area envisions a pair of new reservoirs and an 80-mile pipe network that extends to 15 communities. Called the Northern Integrated Supply Project, it is still waiting on an key federal permit.

    In New Mexico, meanwhile, supporters of the Agustin Plains scheme wish to export 54,000 acre-feet of groundwater per year from a high desert basin to communities along the Rio Grande, some 60 miles to the east. The state engineer rejected the permit in 2018, but the applicant is appealing.

    Southwest Utah is another epicenter of contested water diversions. The most recent came to light in April, when Escalante Valley Partners filed an application with the state Division of Water Rights for more than 50,000 acre-feet of groundwater per year for export. The water, more than 44 million gallons a day, would come from 115 wells drilled between 1,000 and 5,000 feet deep in Beryl-Enterprise, a basin where the state has restricted use of shallow groundwater due to over-extraction.

    In the same area, the Central Iron County Water Conservancy District is championing the $260 million Pine Valley Water Supply project, currently being reviewed by the Bureau of Land Management for a right-of-way permit. If approved, the district would construct 66 miles of pipeline to access groundwater in neighboring Beaver County.

    The most expensive water project in southwest Utah is a proposed 140-mile pipeline to Lake Powell. Critics contend that Lake Powell and the Colorado River that flows into it cannot handle any more diversions. The Bureau of Reclamation, which manages Powell and is reviewing the pipeline application, is already taking emergency action to augment the shrinking reservoir, holding back more water than usual and releasing extra supplies from reservoirs higher in the watershed.

    Zach Renstrom is the general manager of the Washington County Water Conservancy District, the pipeline project’s chief beneficiary. The basic logic of today’s water manager is not so different from an investment adviser: manage risk through a portfolio of investments. Critics assert that Washington County residents, though use has declined from its very high early 2000s peak, still consume more water than almost any community in the U.S. and that water conservation practices should be sufficient. But Renstrom defends the need for another water source — even a very expensive one, with an overall price tag of about $2 billion — because Washington County’s single source right now is the Virgin River.

    “Especially as someone who looks at climate change very seriously and believes in climate change and knows we need to account for that, to make sure the next generation has the tools that it needs to deal with those issues, I think we need to build these large water infrastructure projects,” Renstrom told Circle of Blue.

    Utah officials are also pursuing a project in the state’s northern reaches to send water from the Bear River, the main tributary of the shrinking Great Salt Lake, to communities some 90 miles distant along the Wasatch Front. The state does not anticipate needing the project for several decades.

    Map of the Mississippi River Basin. Made using USGS data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=47308146

    Those projects are miniscule compared to calls to divert eastern rivers like the Mississippi. An undertaking like that — which has legal, technical, environmental, and economic hurdles so enormous as to be implausible today, water experts say — echo even more grandiose and farfetched schemes that were proposed in the 1960s: engineering fantasies like the North American Water and Power Alliance, a continental-scale replumbing of North America’s watersheds, which never advanced much farther than the Parsons Company’s drafting board.

    Few of these projects have secured all required permits and fewer still have broken ground. But it is often the case that designs that look appealing in sketches fold when they collide with real world obstacles.

    One of the biggest obstacles is supply, says Denise Fort, a professor emerita at the University of New Mexico. Do these areas hold enough water to support more diversions?

    Nearly a decade ago, Fort co-authored a report with the Natural Resources Defense Council on the proliferation of pipeline proposals in the western states. In reviewing that report today, Fort told Circle of Blue that the findings still hold true.

    “Many of the pipeline projects under consideration today are dramatically different from those constructed in the past, in terms of sustainability of water supplies, available alternatives, costs, environmental impacts and energy use,” the report concluded. “The communities and agencies that are considering these projects would be well served by a careful analysis of the implications of these important choices.”

    Construction of the Monument Valley waterline extension, which was funded by The Indian Health Service and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The pipeline provided 128 homes with water. Another water project, the Western Navajo Pipeline, has been on hold for at least 10 years.
    Photo credit: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

    Fort said that, in many cases, pursuit of these pipelines is an attempt to continue a water-consuming lifestyle in a region that can no longer support the burden of that demand. Scientists expect the flow of the Colorado River to decline by 9 percent with each degree Celsius that the planet warms.

    “We know what the future is, it’s coming,” Fort said. “And so we can’t continue to act as though it’s just a cyclical thing, and the water will reappear. We know that it will not.”

    Fort believes that instead of sticking more straws into a shrinking pool, municipalities should seriously consider reallocating water from agriculture, which uses the lion’s share of the region’s supply. Instead of growing alfalfa for export, that water could be directed to cities. This approach is not without controversy and requires careful crafting — rural communities, in some cases, have resisted “buy and dry,” preferring leases that do not permanently sever water from land.

    But such a move is what El Paso is banking on. The largest city in West Texas has spent $220 million since 2016 to purchase 70,000 acres of ranch land about 90 miles east, in Dell City. Crucially, the land comes with water rights. Today, El Paso leases the land for farming. But in several decades the city plans to pipe the water beneath those fields to its residents.

    At the foundation of these debates about pipelines are competing views of the American West.

    One school of thought is that water follows growth. “I think it’s much cheaper to take the water to the people than move people to the water. You disrupt a lot less lives that way,” Todd Adams, deputy director of the Utah Department of Natural Resources, told the Utah Water Summit last October.

    Great Basin wetland. Photo credit: The Great Basin Water Network

    The other view is one of conservation and restraint, championed by people like Kyle Roerink, the executive director of the Great Basin Water Network, a group that advocates against transferring water out of its natural basin.

    “There is a suburban Manifest Destiny mindset throughout the region that I think is antithetical as it relates to the amount of resources that are available,” Roerink told Circle of Blue.

    Looking at the history of pipeline projects and water transfers in the West, Roerink worries about unintended financial and environmental consequences if the current contenders move ahead. In the arid Great Basin, which covers much of Nevada and Utah, he is particularly attuned to dry soils if groundwater-dependent basins are depleted. It’s not an unheard of risk. To offset environmental damage in the Owens Valley from its aqueduct, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power has spent $2.5 billion in ratepayer funds to suppress dust storms.

    Many of the biggest projects were built in an era of minimal environmental review and major government subsidy. Those conditions have changed, one of many reasons why mega-projects like diverting the Mississippi River westward are implausible, even fanciful.

    Of the pipeline projects currently under construction, most are not fanciful. Most are like the Eastern New Mexico Rural Water System — smaller in scale and federally supported.

    Congress authorized the 140-mile project in 2009 and is contributing 75 percent of the cost. The rest is coming from local partners, which include four communities in Curry and Roosevelt counties.

    The project received $177.4 million from the federal government this year and $30 million from the state government. If funding in future years comes in as expected, construction should be completed in six to eight years, Orlando Ortega, the administrator of the Eastern New Mexico Water Utility Authority, told Circle of Blue.

    Ogallala Aquifer. Credit: Big Pivots

    The project is a federal priority because the partner communities are all served by groundwater from the depleting Ogallala aquifer. At some point, the water will run out. The pipeline is designed to bring surface water from the state-owned Ute Lake.

    Like all western water supply projects, there are questions about the long-term availability of Ute Lake as the region dries.

    “We are very sensitive to drought conditions, and would certainly be cutting back on our reservation, if needed,” Ortega said.

    Brett Walton

    Brett writes about agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and the politics and economics of water in the United States. He also writes the Federal Water Tap, Circle of Blue’s weekly digest of U.S. government water news. He is the winner of two Society of Environmental Journalists reporting awards, one of the top honors in American environmental journalism: first place for explanatory reporting for a series on septic system pollution in the United States(2016) and third place for beat reporting in a small market (2014). He received the Sierra Club’s Distinguished Service Award in 2018. Brett lives in Seattle, where he hikes the mountains and bakes pies.

    Responding to federal pressure, Upper #ColoradoRiver states seek to revive conservation program — KUNC #COriver #aridification

    Glen Canyon Dam in Page, Ariz., forms Lake Powell. It’s still unclear how Colorado would participate in a federally mandated plan to conserve 2 to 4 million acre-feet water to protect the Colorado River system.
    CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

    Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Luke Runyon). Here’s an excerpt:

    In a letter to the Bureau of Reclamation, officials from Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico say they are already dealing with water shortages due to ongoing dry conditions along the Colorado River, which serves as a drinking water source for 40 million people in the southwest. A reauthorization of the 2014 System Conservation Pilot Program (SCPP) is one prong of the states’ newly rolled out Five-Point Plan. Senators John Hickenlooper, of Colorado, and John Barrasso, of Wyoming, are expected to introduce the bill to the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee at a meeting Thursday…

    The Upper Basin letter argues Congress should reauthorize the SCPP. For four years the program paid farmers in Upper Basin states to restrict their use in order to create “system water,” or simply conserved water that would flow to Lake Powell. The program demonstrated that farmers would participate in programs where they’re paid to fallow their fields. But the program left some thorny questions unanswered, about how to fund such a program on a broad scale, how to ensure the conserved water flowed to the struggling reservoir it was meant to boost, and how to avoid rural communities from being hurt economically when farmers were paid not to grow crops.

    Map credit: AGU

    At a Wednesday board meeting, Colorado Water Conservation Board director Becky Mitchell said the Upper Basin’s planning efforts hinge on how Arizona, California and Nevada respond to the federal government’s recent charge of needing two to four million acre-feet of conservation in 2023 to keep Lakes Powell and Mead from declining to critically low levels.

    Upper Basin leaders have chafed at the idea of committing to specific volumes of water to be conserved within their boundaries.

    “There is recognition that while we must find basin-wide solutions, the options in the Upper Basin are limited,” Mitchell said at the meeting, noting that the Upper Basin states do not benefit from having a large reservoir like Lake Mead from which to draw on in dry times.

    A Conversation with Nicholas Colglazier, #Colorado Corn Administrative Committee — @WaterEdCO

    Nick Colglazier. Photo credit: Water Education Colorado

    Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Caitlin Coleman):

    Back in the spring, we spoke with Nicholas Colglazier, a member of the Water Education Colorado Board of Trustees and executive director of the Colorado Corn Administrative Committee (CCAC), for the Summer 2022 issue of Headwaters magazine “How Are Colorado Farms and Ranches Managing Water For Tomorrow?” about the challenges facing corn growers and the organization’s work to promote water efficiency improvement measures.

    CCAC is the state check-off for corn producers in Colorado, established back in 1987 through a market order to collect a 1.8 cents per bushel assessment on all grain corn grown in Colorado. CCAC uses that funding to conduct research, market development, promotion, outreach and education. That work includes sharing opportunities related to water efficiency soil health and more.

    What does your water-related research and work look like?

    We’re really looking at how do we help our producers be more efficient? How do we help producers operate with better management practices or best management practices?

    And so a lot of that has actually been focused on water in the past. A lot of it has focused on variable rate irrigation or variable rate sprinklers. We’re also looking at, if you’re short on water, when should you irrigate to get the best yield for your crop? So we put some research dollars into that.

    We’re really very much invested in how we use this scarce and very important resource efficiently and for the betterment of our industry and environment.

    The latest thing we’re doing is we have really dove into soil health because what we see in terms of agriculture is a need for resilience especially as we see the climate changing, whether it’s getting hotter or drier or just hotter will be borne out in the future. But regardless, to be successful you have to be able to manage water and one of those ways is through soil health.

    This monitoring station is part of a research project by Colorado State University to track soil and plant conditions in irrigated pastures. The study aims to learn more about how using less water affects high-elevation fields.
    CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

    What does soil health mean for producers?

    If you can improve your soil health, whether it be through soil structure, organic matter, minimizing erosion from water as well as wind, you build a healthy foundation that you have as an agriculturalist to really be able to make it through harder times.

    If you’re able to store more water in your soil, that means that you’ll have a better chance of making a crop in a hotter, dryer year.

    If you have better soil structure that means that you have a higher infiltration rate. So when we get a hard rain, which we are notorious for here in Colorado—you know, getting 4 inches of rain in a couple of hours—your field has a better chance of actually absorbing and taking that water into the soil rather than letting it run off and provide no benefit for the future crops.

    So we’re really investing heavily with the Colorado Department of Agriculture. We’re part of their soil health initiative and we’re trying to help farmers adopt those conservation practices that will lead to healthier soil and lead to better water retention. And a lot people recognize that this is really what we’re after water retention and healthier soil, so that we can better manage that water here and for future crops.

    How are you communicating the importance of soil health out to corn growers?

    What we’re trying to do is enroll about seven producers in the STAR+ program. STAR stands for Saving Tomorrow’s Agricultural Resources and it basically awards producers a star level depending upon their practices. So if you are minimizing soil disturbance, if you are building soil armor, if you’re incorporating livestock, if you have plant diversity, if you have a continual live root, these are all things we look for to increase soil health and the microbiome within it. If you’re doing this, you get awarded points.

    It’s not like a test where you get answers wrong and they take points away, it is literally an accumulation of points where they look at, “OK, what are you doing? Are you doing your best management practices? Are you adopting good conservation methods? Are you looking out for ways to lessen soil erosion? Are you looking out for ways to lessen your trips across the field and while you’re doing it, lessen the disturbance of that soil so that you can build that soil health?”

    And that goes into everything, like soil structure, water infiltration rates, and managing that soil so it can better take in that water resource.

    So we’ve been trying to get out there and get a few people to bite.

    We have some monetary incentives because these things aren’t cost-free, it takes money to change these practices and buy new equipment, to buy new cover crop seed, you name it. It takes capital investment from our producers and if we can help offset that from the very beginning so that we can learn how things work on farms and get actual practical knowledge and practice on somebody’s farm, it helps flatten that learning curve for the future so that more and more people will be willing to adopt.

    So we’re really trying to incentivize producers into this program so that we can get that data and help communicate further to producers to say, you know, doing this is not only beneficial to the environment but it’s beneficial for your bottom line and that sustainability tripod of economics, environment, and social benefits are all there. Without one of them, that whole sustainability table topples right over so were really big believers in that and moving that forward.

    Farmers Highline Canal Arvada.

    What are the biggest challenges that Colorado Corn growers are up against today?

    I’d say first and foremost is water availability.

    We look at what’s going on, not only just soil health but also in terms of what water’s available and who’s out there buying it. We’ve seen a lot of agricultural operations dry up in the past and we’ve seen a lot of municipalities and people buy farms specifically for the water for later use. So the farm may be using that water now but what is it going to be like in 10, or 15 or 20 years? Are they going to keep that water on the farm or are they going to pull that off for municipal reasons? Keeping water available to farmers is definitely an issue that we see farmers facing down.

    Making sure that people who have water have access to it is a big issue, but also making sure the resource is there for the longevity of the industry and community it supports.

    Another one is profitability. That is always something that has been an issue within agriculture. It’s a pretty interesting time to talk about it because we’re seeing $8 corn on the board and I just looked at it today in Yuma you can contract, October and November, corn for $7.81 that’s a very, very high price for corn. But we’re also facing questions on the availability of fertilizers and pesticides that are needed to successfully grow a crop. And if you don’t have access to those tools, are you going to be able to grow a crop? Even with $7 corn.

    Micha Ide of Bright Ide Acres farm, Washington, practices rotational grazing on her farm. Animals are moved frequently around the pasture to increase soil fertility and enhance the sustainability of the farm.
    Photo credit: Audra Mulkern

    Another issue that we’re constantly trying to figure out is the sustainability of corn. We entered into the soil health arena with the department because we realized sustainability really is a big deal but it’s becoming a much bigger deal outside of our industry. Our customers are the ethanol plants and feed yards, they’re the ones who are selling, ultimately, to the consumer and the consumers are demanding more environmentally conscious sustainability in their products and their buying.

    So, how can corn make sure we are on that path? That we’re providing a sustainable product to our consumers so to feed lots, to the ethanol plants, to the hog farms, to the chicken farms. How do we make sure that corn is sustainable?

    It’s finding that message and delivering the fact that throughout the years we’ve been ahead of our time. Take 1980-2015, you know, we reduced erosion immensely, we’ve become much more efficient with our land use, we’ve become much more efficient with our water use, we reduced our gas footprint, but we’ve got to keep doing more.

    We’re seeing companies like Mcdonald’s and Walmart come out with sustainability statements on row crops, so you know that at some point, those are going to take hold and it’s going to impact what we can and can’t do on our farms. Those producers who are able to adopt practices so they can meet those sustainability metrics are going to be successful. It’s going to impact the entire industry and how we do things.

    So, making sure we keep that up, we are at the table when it comes to these sustainability discussions so we can look at a Walmart or a Mcdonald’s and, as they set their goals, we can say ‘Yeah, we can do that” or “you’re asking too much, that’s just not a feasibility.” There are limitations on what we can do and still allow profitability in the system. Because if you don’t have profitability in the system, you’re not going to have anybody there to do it.

    Are most producers feeling the same pressure and push toward sustainability?

    I don’t know if they are feeling it at the farm level just yet. A lot of them are probably looking at just figuring out “how do we make it through this year, how do we make it through next year?”

    But a lot of them are looking at how do we become more sustainable in our operations? Maybe not because of what Walmart or Mcdonald’s are doing but because we need to become more sustainable. We realize that sustainability, the traditional definition of social, economic, environmental benefit, they’re trying to find a balance between all of those knowing that’s what they need to do for their own success in their operation. If they can find ways to impact the environment less, if they can find ways that build that soil, build that foundation, they’re going to be ultimately more successful. So I think a lot of them are looking in that direction versus what are customers’ customers demanding of them. And sometimes that’s coming from the top down.

    Agriculture in Colorado is the state’s largest water diverter and user. But knowing that, ultimately, we’re doing that for consumers and we’re trying to do that in the most environmental and sustainable way possible. Being efficient, trying to conserve where we can, and doing this because ultimately, the food we grow whether it be corn for livestock or fruit and vegetables is consumed by consumers, who, most of them live in the Denver metro area. So, that relationship that everybody has to water and agriculture is there because every day, whether it’s a direct consumption of water through your faucet or consumption of water through the foods that they eat ultimately it comes back to us as a consumer when it comes to agriculture diverting water.

    That’s why it’s so important to find ways to keep water in agriculture because that allows that food that we consume each and every day, for a lot of it to come from their backdoor, from their state, to not have to bring it across state lines or transport it thousands of miles, it allows them to support their farmers who are just in their backyard, out on the Eastern Plains or the Western Slope and it’s incredibly important that people realize that we’re all part of this water cycle and we’re all using that water.

    Read about other ways in which Colorado’s farmers and ranchers are managing water with an eye toward efficiency and water quality improvements in the summer 2022 issue of Headwaters magazine “How Are Colorado Farms And Ranches Managing Water For Tomorrow?

    Say hello to Farm Aid Resources for Farmers and Ranchers Facing #Drought

    Agricultural Irrigation Pivot. Photo credit: Colorado Springs Utilities

    Click the link to go to the Farm Aid website (Lori Mercer):

    WHAT WE’RE HEARING

    Since its inception in 1985, our Farm Aid hotline team has routinely witnessed the consequences of natural disasters, policy decisions, trade wars, corporate consolidation and most recently, the Coronavirus, on our nation’s family farms. At a time when the projected median farm income represents a negative value (estimated to decrease in 2020 to -$1,248) and the majority of farm families rely on second jobs to survive, there’s no leeway for additional stressors…and yet, the longest drought in US history has intensified to an unparalleled magnitude. Currently, 90% of the west is designated as “in drought,” half of which is classified as “severe” to “exceptional.” California’s Lake Mead, our nation’s largest reservoir, is at 35% capacity and the first ever mandatory water cuts have been imposed for the Colorado River.

    How does this turmoil play itself out during a typical hotline shift? Over the past few months, our hotline operators have shepherded farmers through a variety of crises. Here is a handful of examples: A farmer reported his well spit out nothing but sand one morning when preparing to feed his livestock. During the time the hotline staff researched solutions, a family member obtained a loan to replace the well. Two farmers reported their cattle were starving due to escalating hay prices with little choice but to cull some of their herd; a variety of hay listings, low interest loans and alternative feeds to hay were provided to ease their trials. A farmer sought legal advice for himself and others in anticipation of a lawsuit from their local irrigation district; he was referred to the Farmers Legal Action Group (FLAG), “a nonprofit law center dedicated to providing legal services and support to family farmers and their communities in order to help keep family farmers on the land.”

    We recognize that such distress calls represent a mere fraction of producers reeling from this drought. If you’ve been impacted, please know there’s support available. First, start with a Guide that offers a solid disaster assistance overview. Three to start with include Farm Aid Resource Guide for Farm Crisis Support, Farm Aid Disaster Assistance for Farmers Guide and Rural Advancement Foundation International (RAFI)-USA’s recently updated Disaster Assistance webpage. You’ll notice a common theme amongst them: document, document, document. The adage “Use your camera before your shovel” cannot be stressed enough. It’s imperative to be able to prove the nature and extent of damage, and your efforts to obtain assistance when relief funding becomes available. Second, please make use of the national and state-based resource directory below to locate drought specific assistance and programs both nationally and in your state. California producer resources are particularly rich, thanks to a conversation with UC-Davis Cooperative Extension agent for Fresno and Tulare counties Ruth Dahlquist-Willard, who stressed the importance of working with your county’s cooperative extension office. These qualified folks are deeply attuned to your area’s support network.

    RESOURCES FOR FARMERS AND RANCHERS FACING DROUGHT

    View the resources below, or click here to view this on Google Sheets.

    #Drought news (July 21, 2022): Severe drought expanded on the plains of E. #Colorado and extreme S.E. #Wyoming

    Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor.

    Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

    This Week’s Drought Summary

    Most of the eastern third of the U.S. recorded precipitation during the last week, with only a few pockets that missed out. Portions of the Midwest and into the Southeast had some amounts over 3 inches for the week and even widespread 5+ inch amounts in the coastal areas of Florida, and some rain at the end of the period allowed for much of New England to stay status quo for the week and even see a few improvements. The areas with the most rain also had the coolest temperatures, with much of the Midwest and Southeast cooler than normal for the week with departures of 2-4 degrees below normal. Warmer-than-normal temperatures dominated the western half of the country with areas from Montana to Texas recording temperatures that were 6-8 degrees above normal. The coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest were cooler than normal while the Great Basin was warmer than normal with departures of 6-8 degrees above normal. With the dryness and heat, the flash drought that has been developing in the central to southern Plains developed even more this week with the wet conditions of May and June quickly being forgotten…

    High Plains

    A warm and mainly dry week dominated the region. Temperatures were warmest in eastern Montana and from western North Dakota to western Kansas, where departures were 6-8 degrees above normal. There were some pockets of very intense rains in Nebraska, North Dakota and eastern Colorado, but widespread rains were minimal. South Dakota had expansion of abnormally dry and moderate drought over much of the southern tier of the state while eastern Kansas had widespread introduction of abnormally dry conditions and moderate drought expansion. Severe and extreme drought expanded over much of western Kansas while severe drought expanded over north-central Nebraska and in the panhandle. Severe drought also expanded on the plains of eastern Colorado and extreme southeast Wyoming. There was a slight improvement in extreme drought in northeast Nebraska where some intense rains fell in the middle of the previous extreme drought area…

    Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending July 19, 2022.

    West

    Temperatures were warmer than normal over much of Montana and into northern Nevada, southern Idaho, and eastern Wyoming with departures of 6-8 degrees above normal. Temperatures were cooler than normal by 1-2 degrees over the coastal regions of Washington and Oregon. Highly variable and scattered monsoonal moisture continues to impact the region, with some areas with above-normal precipitation for the week in Nevada, Arizona, and southern California as well as into areas of southern Colorado and Utah. Only minimal changes were made this week as the full impact of the recent precipitation is not fully known yet, but improvements are possible depending on how the rest of the monsoon season continues…

    South

    As with areas of the central Plains, the South had widespread hot and dry conditions for the week. Areas of northeast Arkansas, western Louisiana and northern Mississippi had the most rain, with pockets of rain throughout central and southern Texas. Temperatures were warmer than normal with departures of 4-6 degrees above normal over most of northern Texas and Oklahoma. As both long-term and short-term dryness have impacted this area, extreme and exceptional drought expanded over Oklahoma and Texas while flash drought development has impacted much of eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. Widespread degradation took place this week with a full category degradation over much of Oklahoma, Arkansas and into northern Texas. Further degradation took place over portions of east Texas with just small areas of improvement over far west Texas, the western Panhandle and into southwest Texas…

    Looking Ahead

    Over the next 5-7 days, it is anticipated that wet conditions will continue over the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast. Areas of the Midwest will also continue with the recent wet pattern, with the greatest rains anticipated over southern Wisconsin. Dry conditions will dominate the West and South and monsoonal moisture will continue to bring rains to the Four Corners region and into the central Plains. Temperatures during this time will be above normal for most of the country; the greatest departures of 6-9 degrees above normal will be over the West and into the Plains. Cooler-than-normal conditions will be experienced over the northern Plains, where temperatures in North Dakota are anticipated to be 6-9 degrees below normal.

    The 6-10 day outlooks show that the West, South, Midwest and East Coast have the best chances to record above-normal temperatures, with the best chances over the South and Pacific Northwest. The best probability for below-normal temperatures will be over the northern Plains, southern Arizona and Alaska. The best chances of above-normal precipitation appear to be over the central to southern Plains, Southwest and Midwest, with the best chances over Kansas, Oklahoma, and Kentucky. Below-normal precipitation chances are best over the Pacific Northwest and into portions of the Southeast.

    US Drought Monitor one week change map ending July 19, 2022.

    The latest seasonal outlooks (through October 31, 2022) are hot off the presses from the #Climate Predication Center

    6 Big Findings from the IPCC 2022 Report on #Climate Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability — World Resources Institute #ActOnClimate

    Click the link to go to the World Resources Institute website:

    The newest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) paints a troubling picture: Climate change is already impacting every corner of the world, and much more severe impacts are in store if we fail to halve greenhouse gas emissions this decade and immediately scale up adaptation.

    Comparing risks from rising temperatures. Credit: World Resources Institute via Ravi Karkara

    2021 #COleg: Walking the legislative talk of environmental justice — @BigPivots #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

    Suncor Refinery with Sand Creek in the foreground July 9, 2022. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

    Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

    Colorado legislators in 2021 passed a suite of laws that in various ways give state agencies new marching orders that this energy transition will reconcile past wrongs and put people on an equal footing. But there’s a lot to sort through in this.

    Now comes the part where the rhetoric about a just transition of the energy economy — paying special attention to disproportionately impacted communities and rectifying past wrongs with the word “equity” in mind — gets tested in the field.

    In late July and early August, the three members of the Colorado Public Utilities Commission will take turns hosting six meetings from Lamar to Grand Junction, places selectively chosen because of evidence of disproportionate impacts from energy.

    The meetings serve a dual purpose. The commissioners are gathering thoughts about how the state’s four regulated gas-distribution utilities will start changing how we heat buildings and water in order to reduce emissions. They are required to submit what are called clean-heat plans.

    The four gas utilities —Xcel Energy, Black Hills Energy, Atmos Energy, and Colorado Natural Gas — must show how they will be able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 4% by 2025 and 22% by 2030, based on a 2015 baseline.

    But the commissioners are also very deliberately meeting in cities that have been identified by mapping tools as having, or being proximate to, disproportionately impacted communities.

    Get accustomed to hearing that phrase, now used so often it has been reduced to an acronym in many documents: DIC. Among other things, the commissioners want to better understand how to define equity (as distinct from equality) and what constitutes a DIC community.

    It’s an early milestone in Colorado’s difficult and still new process, one parallel to others underway in several states around the country.

    Pushing their investigation are five laws passed by Colorado legislators in 2021 that collectively seek to put the hands of those communities on the steering wheel in ways that they have not before.

    SB 21-272, “Modernize the Public Utilities Commission,” tells the PUC that it must adopt rules that “consider how best to provide equity, minimize impacts, and prioritize benefits to disproportionately impacted communities and address historical inequalities.”

    What are disproportionately impacted communities? This law provides a glimpse:

    “Certain communities, both in Colorado and internationally, have historically been forced to bear a disproportionate burden of adverse human health or environmental effects, as documented in numerous studies, while also facing systemic exclusion from environmental decision-making processes and enjoying fewer environmental benefits,” says SB21-272.

    The law cites a 2021 report from the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley. The project, called Mapping for Environmental Justice, attempted to paint a holistic picture of intersecting environmental, social, and health impacts in individual states, including Colorado.

    The study found that “communities of color breathe nearly twice as much diesel pollution and are 1.5 times more likely to live near a Superfund site than white communities. The disparity holds across an array of environmental hazards: from wastewater releases to air toxins, Coloradoans of color are consistently exposed to more pollution.”

    This same law, SB 21-272, instructs the PUC to “identify disproportionately impacted communities” and host meetings and in other ways invite input from them to ensure that they will have at least proportionate access to the benefits of retail customer programs, incentives and investments.”

    The PUC must go through a rule-making process that governs how the PUC reviews plans by utilities —including not just energy utilities, but also transportation and other sectors it regulates.

    The goal is to deliver equity – which will be defined later – in programs and incentives that serve low-income customers and disproportionately impacted communities.

    Clean Heat

    The second law of relevance, SB 21-264, the “Clean Heat Bill,” requires Colorado’s four natural gas utilities to start figuring out how to reduce fossil fuel combustion from buildings. It gives the largest gas utilities, including Xcel, various ways to achieve a 22% reduction in emissions by 2030. They can, for example, help customers convert to electricity through use of air-source heat pumps. Utilities are required to submit clean-heat plans.

    This clean-heat bill also has an environmental justice component. That law also calls out the “historic injustices that impact lower-income Coloradans and black, indigenous, and other people of color who have borne a disproportionate share of environmental risks while also enjoying fewer environmental benefits.”

    As the PUC goes about creating the rules for evaluating clean-heat plans, it must hold at least two meetings in disproportionately impacted communities.

    In planning six meetings, not just two, the PUC obviously aims for a robust compliance with the letter of the law. The PUC has gone a step beyond, and we’ll explain that later in this article.

    Yet a third law, HB 21-1266, called the “Environmental Justice Act,” takes direct aim and, unlike the others, delivers more explicit instructions for the Air Quality Control Commission – an agency within the state’s health department – to engage with disproportionately impacted communities.

    The law incorporates demographic factors but delegated to a new Environmental Justice Action Task Force the work of defining what exactly constitutes a disproportionately impacted community. The law also added transition to a more equitable clean energy economy to the mission of the Colorado Energy Office.

    Two more laws deserve mention.

    SB 21-246, Promote Beneficial Electrification, requires investor-owned utilities to file plans with the PUC that must include “programs targeted to low-income housing or disproportionately impacted communities with at least 20% of the total beneficial electrification program funding” directed to those communities and income levels.

    HB21-1105 modified the eligibility standards for low-income programs.

    The trajectory

    Why did all of this come together in 2021?

    Ean Tafoya, of GreenLatinos, who is co-chair of the new task force, says the thinking had been growing for years of the need to “redress” inequities.

    In 2019, the first year that Democrats gained a majority in both chambers, as well as the governor’s mansion, the legislators who might have carried the bills were too new to the General Assembly to be effective.

    Then came the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer in 2020, spurring national protests, including in Denver. This was just months after the covid pandemic descended, hitting minority populations harder.

    Those things “helped to galvanize the creation of a more formidable environmental justice coalition,” says Tafoya. This pressure seems to have created “more political room for the politicians to move forward.”

    Tafoya also says that this powerful new environmental justice coalition wouldn’t settle for legislation that in early drafts didn’t initially include equity provisions.

    In this, he refers to major bills driven by Sen. Chris Hansen of Denver and two Boulder County legislators, Sen. Steve Fenberg and Rep. Tracey Bernett, as well as Rep. Alex Valdez and Rep. Meg Froehlich.

    A bill that started out as SB 200 was recreated in SB 1266 with Faith Winter as a primary author. She did not respond to several requests for an interview.

    The Environmental Justice Act is sweeping. It requires the Air Quality Control Commission to adopt rules to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas operations. It also requires that commission to adopt rules to reduce emissions from the industrial and manufacturing sector in Colorado by at least 20% by 2030 relative to 2015 levels.

    This is from Big Pivots 59 (July 17, 2022). Please consider subscribing.

    Environmental justice, though, is front and center in the law. It requires the Air Quality Control Commission to promote outreach to disproportionately impacted communities by creating new ways to gather input from communities across Colorado, using multiple languages and multiple formats.

    The law also created the task force of which Tafoya is a member with the responsibility to make recommendations to legislators of “practical means to address environmental justice inequities” by Nov. 14.

    That task force has met four times beginning in December, and it also has five subcommittees that meet monthly.

    Pueblo’s Jamie Valdez, who is also on the task force, describes it as a “very difficult process.” But the goal is to avoid compromising as has occurred in the past.

    Members have received much testimony “that there has not been enough consideration or responsiveness to community and too much to industry,” he says.

    The table has been tilted heavily to a discussion between industry and regulators, to the exclusion of others, says Valdez, who is paid staff and a community organizer for southern Colorado on behalf of Mothers Outfront, a mothers-funded environmental justice organization whose mission is to work for a livable climate for all children.

    Equity and equitable

    The Colorado Public Utilities Commission has also been moving along. The commission held a workshop in February to get insights from participants about how to implement the environmental justice component of HB21-264, the law that requires the meetings in disproportionately impacted communities. In March, the PUC asked the states’ four natural gas utilities – Xcel, Black Hills Energy, Atmos, and Colorado Natural Gas – to identify three ideas for meeting locations.

    Xcel identified Grand Junction, metro Denver, and Pueblo. Black Hills identified Montrose, Rocky Ford, and Yuma. Atmos Energy identified Greeley, Lamar, and Craig.

    The utilities were advised to consult a data-rich mapping tool created by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment called EnviroScreen. This was a result of the Environmental Justice Bill. When I first looked at this a year ago, I found it primitive. It showed the Wildridge neighborhood north of Avon and the Singletree neighborhood of Edwards to be in an environmentally impacted tract. (That all of us should be so unfortunate as to live in such areas.)

    A review for this article shows a sophisticated tool, if still not complete. A tutorial explains it was created “to help identify the relative health burdens and environmental risks facing different communities across Colorado.”

    On June 1, the PUC hosted a session on equity initiatives. Kelly Crandell, of the PUC staff, explained the SB 21-272 requirement to promulgate rules that seek to “provide equity and minimize impacts and prioritizes benefits to disproportionately impacted communities that have experienced historical inequalities.”

    During the next few months, she said, the PUC commissioners and staff will be focusing on learning things that can be used to shape these new rules, the ones being drawn up to govern how the PUC evaluates plans by utilities.

    Crandell carefully distinguished between equality and equity. With the equality, the idea is to provide something to everyone equally. So, your residential rates for electricity will be the same as your neighbors’.

    Equity as Crandell explained it has a historical dimension. It recognizes that things may need to change so that others can participate, that actions of the past such as redlining must be acknowledged to properly rectify going forward.

    “It’s challenging to an agency such as ours because conversations more traditionally operated in the vein of equality,” she said.

    The legislation, she explained, had three dimensions: 1) recognize why certain communities have suffered, such as because of redlining practices; 2) procedural inequalities. How can the PUC make its process more accessible to the public; and 3) broadly prioritizing the benefits of new energy programs to disproportionately impacted communities.

    Different sorts of meetings

    Most interesting of these meetings may be at Montbello, located in northeastern Denver on the north side of I-70. It will use a new format of outreach.

    There, community members will be paid to attend and share their thoughts. The meeting will be led by the Denver Office of Climate Action, Sustainability and Resiliency. That municipal agency has been hosting community meetings. In this case two community-based organizations have been enlisted to put it together.

    “The event will include a listening session on energy priorities within these neighborhoods in addition to a discussion about clean heat plans,” the decision notice issued by the PUC on July 6 says. The event will be presented in both English and Spanish.

    Ah yes – the clean heat plans. The natural gas utilities must figure out how to reduce emissions from buildings. A small bit of this can be accomplished by augmenting supplies of methane distributed to homes for heating and cooking with what is called renewable natural gas, such as that harvested from landfills. But there are many other tools – including beneficial electrification, including the use of air source heat pumps to displace or at least augment natural gas furnaces. They’re still relatively expensive, though, with a payback that in most cases will take at least several years.

    Tafoya observes that focus groups have already found that tax credits won’t work for lower-income residents. “It’s clear that people want down-payment assistance, not just tax credits.”

    Colorado is far from alone in trying to look at utility decisions through the new lenses of equity. A report called “Advancing Equity in Utility Regulation” issued in November 2021 by Berkeley National Laboratory notes an effort in California in 2020 requiring “environmental justice” to be part of the state’s mission. New York and Washington also adopted legislation in 2019, the latter state charging the utilities commission with “ensuring that all customers are benefiting from the transition to clean energy.”

    In 2021, Massachusetts, Oregon, Illinois, and Maine all passed somewhat parallel legislation along with Colorado.

    Also worth checking out:

    Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment Environmental Justice page

    Colorado Public Utilities Commission Equity Initiatives page

    Meetings

    July 21: Greeley, Greeley Recreation Center, 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m.

    July 21: Denver, Montebello Recreation Center, 5-7:30 p.m.

    July 27: Grand Junction, Colorado Mesa University Center, 11:30 a.m.-1 p.m.

    July 28: Montrose, Montrose Event Center, 11:30 a.m.-1 p.m.

    Aug. 4: Pueblo, Bessemer Community Room at Steelworks Center for the West, 11:30 a.m.-1 p.m.

    Aug. 4: Lamar Cultural Events Center, 4:30-6 p.m.

    The 5 bills:
    SB21-272 “Measures to Modernize the Public Utilities Commission.” Requires PUC to identify disproportionately impacted communities (DICs) and to reach out to let them help create new rules.

    SB 21-264, “Clean Heat Bill.” Requires natural gas utilities to begin decarbonizing gas distributed to buildings. Requires PUC to hold at least two meetings in DICs.

    HB 21-1266 “Environmental Justice Act.” Instructions specifically to Air Quality Control Commission.

    SB 21-246, “Promote Beneficial Electrification.” Requires 20% of program funds be used for low-income households or disproportionately impacted communities.

    HB21-1105, modifies eligibility standards for low-income programs.

    Photo from http://trmurf.com/about/

    Say hello to Project Drawdown #Climate Solutions 101 #ActOnClimate

    Click the link to go to the Project Drawdown website:

    Your climate solutions journey begins now. Filled with the latest need-to-know science and fascinating insights from global leaders in climate policy, research, investment, and beyond, this video series is a brain-shift toward a brighter climate reality.

    Climate Solutions 101 is the world’s first major educational effort focused solely on solutions. Rather than rehashing well-known climate challenges, Project Drawdown centers game-changing climate action based on its own rigorous scientific research and analysis. This course, presented in video units and in-depth conversations, combines Project Drawdown’s trusted resources with the expertise of several inspiring voices from around the world. Climate solutions become attainable with increased access to free, science-based educational resources, elevated public discourse, and tangible examples of real-world action. Continue your climate solutions journey, today.

    This week’s Topsoil Moisture Short/Very Short by @usda_oce

    From NIDIS on Twitter:

    A 3% jump across the Lower 48. The last 3 weeks have seen the highest levels of topsoil moisture short/very short for this time range in 8 years. TX (94%) and AR (90%) have the highest levels short/very short.

    Upper Division States and Upper #ColoradoRiver Commission Provide 5-Point Plan for Additional Protection Actions

    Map credit: AGU

    Click the link to read the UCRC letter on the Upper Colorado River Commsission website (Alyx Richards):

    Upper Division States 5 Point Plan for Additional Actions to Protect Colorado Storage Project Initial Units:

    Dear Commissioner Touton,

    The Upper Division States of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, through the Upper Colorado River Commission (UCRC), are writing in response to your request that the Colorado River Basin States take
    additional actions in response to the continuing drought and depleted system storage. During your testimony to the Senate Natural Resources Committee on June 14, 2022, you asked the Basin States to develop plans to provide an additional 2-4 million acre-feet (MAF) of water in 2023 to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell and Lake Mead. You also indicated that, absent such plans being developed by mid-August, the Bureau of Reclamation is prepared to take unilateral action under its existing authority to protect the system.

    The Upper Division States recognize that bringing the system into balance will require collaboration and efforts from all Basin States and water use sectors. Accordingly, we stand ready to participate in and support efforts, across the Basin, to address the continuing dry hydrology and depleted storage conditions. However, the options the Upper Division States have available to protect critical reservoir elevations are limited. The Upper Basin is naturally limited to the shrinking supply of the river, and previous drought response actions are
    depleting upstream storage by 661,000 acre-feet. Our water users already suffer chronic shortages under current conditions resulting in uncompensated priority administration, which includes cuts to numerous present perfected rights in each of our states.

    In order to proactively support critical infrastructure and resources related to the Colorado River Storage Project Act Initial Units, we have developed a 5 Point Plan. We intend to implement the 5 Point Plan to the
    extent it is effective, in conjunction with plans developed for the Lower Basin. The components of the 5 Point Plan are as follows:

    (1) Seek amendment and reauthorization of the System Conservation Pilot Project legislation originally enacted in 2014. The amendment will provide for extension of the authorization and reporting periods
    to September 30, 2026, and September 30, 2027, respectively, and seek funding to support the program in the Upper Basin. Upon obtaining reauthorization, the necessary funding, and finalizing any
    required agreements, we intend to reactivate the program in the Upper Basin in 2023.

    (2) Commence development of a 2023 Drought Response Operations Plan (2023 Plan) in August 2022 with finalization in April 2023 consistent with the Drought Response Operations Plan Framework (Framework). A 2023 Plan must meet all the requirements of the Drought Response Operations Agreement and the Framework. These requirements include, but are not limited to, determining the effectiveness of any potential releases from upstream Initial Units to protect critical elevations at Glen
    Canyon Dam, and ensuring that the benefits provided to Glen Canyon Dam facilities and operations are preserved.

    (3) Consider an Upper Basin Demand Management program as interstate and intrastate investigations are completed.

    (4) Implement, in cooperation with Reclamation, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law for Upper Basin Drought Contingency Plan funding to accelerate enhanced measurement, monitoring, and reporting
    infrastructure to improve water management tools across the Upper Division States.

    (5) Continue strict water management and administration within the available annual water supply in the Upper Division States, including implementation and expansion of intrastate water conservation programs and regulation and enforcement under the doctrine of prior appropriation.

    The challenges in the Colorado River Basin affect us all and require collaboration across the entire Basin. We request your support as we advance our 5 Point Plan, including for federal legislation to reauthorize the System Conservation Pilot Program and for funding to support the Plan through September 2026.

    Reclamation data shows that Lower Basin and Mexico depletions are more than double the depletions in the Upper Basin. Therefore, additional efforts to protect critical reservoir elevations must include significant actions focused downstream of Lake Powell. Otherwise, the effectiveness of our 5 Point Plan will be limited.

    We look forward to working with you on this critical effort while also developing sustainable long-term solutions to address the challenges we face in the Colorado River Basin.

    Becky Mitchell, the state of Colorado’s top water official. (Source: Colorado Water Conservation Board)

    From email from the Colorado Water Conservation Board (UCRC Commissioner Rebecca Mitchell):

    In coordination with the other Upper Division States of New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, Colorado is taking action in response to the call from the Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton to the Colorado River Basin states to conserve a total of 2-4 million acre-feet to protect critical infrastructure at Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The Upper Division States’ 5 Point Plan is outlined in a letter sent to Commissioner Touton by the Upper Colorado River Commission on July 18.

    “The challenges facing the Colorado River are significant and require action across the entire Basin. While the options available in the Upper Division states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming are limited by hydrologic conditions, we are doing our part to protect the system. The Upper Basin states take water cuts responsive to hydrologic conditions and have also provided a significant amount of water from our upstream reservoirs. On top of these actions, we have developed a comprehensive new 5 Point Plan. But these efforts will be successful only if additional actions are taken downstream of Lake Powell,” said Colorado River Commissioner Becky Mitchell.

    Registration is now open for the 2022 Sustaining #Colorado Watersheds Conference Oct. 11-13, 2022 — @WaterEdCO

    Aspinall Unit operations update: 490 cfs in Black Canyon #GunnisonRiver #ColoradoRiver #aridification

    Black Canyon July 2020. Photo credit: Cari Bischoff

    From email from Reclamation (Erik Knight):

    Releases from the Aspinall Unit will be increased from 1450 cfs to 1500 cfs on Wednesday, July 20th. Releases are being increased to maintain flows above the baseflow target on the lower Gunnison River. The forecasted April-July runoff volume for Blue Mesa Reservoir is 67% of average.

    Flows in the lower Gunnison River are currently very near to the baseflow target of 900 cfs. River flows are expected to drop below the baseflow target without this additional increase in release from the Aspinall Unit.

    Pursuant to the Aspinall Unit Operations Record of Decision (ROD), the baseflow target in the lower Gunnison River, as measured at the Whitewater gage, is 900 cfs for June, July and August.

    Currently, Gunnison Tunnel diversions are 1030 cfs and flows in the Gunnison River through the Black Canyon are around 440 cfs. After this release change Gunnison Tunnel diversions will still be around 1030 cfs and flows in the Gunnison River through the Black Canyon will be near 490 cfs. Current flow information is obtained from provisional data that may undergo revision subsequent to review.

    The Colorado River District Acts to Address Spiking #ColoradoRiver Temperatures #COriver #aridification

    Colorado trout. Photo credit: Colorado River district

    Click the link to read the release on the Colorado River District website:

    District calls on Front Range diverters to assist in prevention of further fish kills, economic impairment.

    Low flows and high water temperatures are creating critical conditions on the Upper Colorado for the second consecutive year, triggering fishing closures amidst reports of struggling and dying fish. Anticipating these conditions, the Colorado River District chose to release water from an already-reduced Wolford Mountain Reservoir last weekend. This voluntary release generated approximately 200 acre-feet of water to protect the health of the river – and by extension, local economies and downstream water users. District staff, however, says further action is needed.

    “Our constituents are seeing fish floating by belly-up and struggling to survive current hot temperatures,” said Brendon Langenhuizen, the River District’s Director of Technical Advocacy. “We’ve also received reports of dead fish along the riverbanks. Since the beginning of July, these new-normal conditions are having major impacts on the Upper Colorado River ecosystem. Colorado Parks & Wildlife’s fishing closures are symptomatic of a larger issue that needs the attention of all water users. Our District has and will continue to do our part with voluntary releases when water is available from our limited resources at Wolford Mountain Reservoir.”

    Wolford Mountain Reserovir, and the Gore Range. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism

    Recent monsoonal rains are bringing some relief, but soil moisture issues and hot, dry conditions forecasted for early next week have prompted a need for direct action. In response, the River District began releasing an additional 50 cubic feet-per-second (cfs) Friday morning, July 15, and will continue through Sunday, July 17, providing another 300 acre-feet of water for the river by Monday morning. Limited West Slope water supplies will inhibit the River District’s ability to fully address temperature and flow issues, however.

    “We can’t fix this situation alone,” Langenhuizen stated. “Our constituents are asking for help to address the river’s unhealthy conditions causing fish kills. They’re wondering why large Front Range providers are not reducing their transmountain diversions to join the River District in aiding Colorado’s namesake river and the livelihoods it supports.”

    The River District urges these water providers to act in partnership with West Slope water users to protect the health of the Upper Colorado River.

    Colorado River just after crossing under highway 34. Photo credit: Colorado River District

    June’s global average concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (#CO₂) was about 419 parts per million (ppm), a roughly 50% increase since 1750 due to human activities, such as burning fossil fuels and land-use changes — NASA #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

    PROXY (INDIRECT) MEASUREMENTS
    Data source: Reconstruction from ice cores.
    Credit: NOAA

    Click the link to go to the NASA website for all the inside skinny and to use the interactive map:

    Carbon Dioxide

    LATEST MEASUREMENT: June 2022

    419 ppm

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping gas, or greenhouse gas, that comes from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, and natural gas), from wildfires, and from natural processes like volcanic eruptions. The first graph shows atmospheric CO2 levels measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, in recent years, with natural, seasonal changes removed. The second graph shows CO2 levels during Earth’s last three glacial cycles, as captured by air bubbles trapped in ice sheets and glaciers.

    Since the beginning of industrial times (in the 18th century), human activities have raised atmospheric CO2 by 50% – meaning the amount of CO2 is now 150% of its value in 1750. This is greater than what naturally happened at the end of the last ice age 20,000 years ago.

    The animated map shows how global carbon dioxide has changed over time. Note how the map changes colors as the amount of CO2 rises from 365 parts per million (ppm) in 2002 to over 400 ppm currently. (“Parts per million” refers to the number of carbon dioxide molecules per million molecules of dry air.) These measurements are from the mid-troposphere, the layer of Earth’s atmosphere that is 8 to 12 kilometers (about 5 to 7 miles) above the ground.

    Summer work begins at Glade Reservoir as #NISP awaits federal permit — The #FortCollins Coloradoan #PoudreRiver #SouthPlatteRiver

    U.S. Highway 287 runs through the future site of Glade Reservoir. The Larimer county Board of County Commissioners approved the 1041 Land Use Permit for NISP in September, 2020. Photo credit: Northern Water

    Click the link to read the article on the Fort Collins Coloradoan website (Sady Swanson and Jacy Marmaduke). Here’s an excerpt:

    Crews began conducting rock and soil assessments in June at the site of the planned Glade Reservoir, north of Ted’s Place on U.S. Highway 287. The assessments will give Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District officials site-specific geotechnical and geological information that will inform the design and construction of the Glade Reservoir dam…

    The assessment work is expected to continue through November, according to a Northern Water news release. This work includes:

  • Digging a 1,000-foot-long trench at the main dam site to test materials and drill the foundation
  • Building a test pad of embankment material types
  • Producing aggregates and rock fill from quarries and investigating material characteristics
  • This work is being done ahead of the project’s anticipated approval by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which is expected to make its final determination this year. If that happens, construction could start as early as 2023 with completion expected by 2028.

    Northern Integrated Supply Project (NISP) map July 27, 2016 via Northern Water.

    Opinions differ on timeline as #CrystalRiver Wild & Scenic efforts move ahead — @AspenJournalism #RoaringForkRiver #ColoradoRiver #COriver

    State Highway 133 crosses the Crystal River several times as it flows downstream to its confluence with the Roaring Fork River in Carbondale. Some proponents of a federal Wild & Scenic designation are pushing for a quick timeline while others want a more cautious approach. CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

    Click the link to read the article on the Aspen Journalism website (Heather Sackett):

    A campaign to protect one of the last free-flowing rivers in Colorado is moving forward, but some proponents say not enough progress has been made over the past year.

    Last spring a handful of advocates led by Pitkin County revived an effort to secure a federal Wild & Scenic designation, which would protect the upper Crystal River from future development, dams and diversions. A year into the effort, some say a planned stakeholder process is moving too slowly, while others say a designation can’t be rushed and must be approached carefully and inclusively.

    The different philosophies underscore a rift between those who say a cautious and thorough multi-year approach is what’s needed to ensure success and those who say mounting threats to the river, driven by the climate crisis, demand bold and immediate action.

    “That difference of opinion concerns me a great deal,” said Kate Hudson, Crystal River Valley resident and western U.S coordinator for Waterkeeper Alliance. “We are at an existential moment both in terms of water and climate and our congressional balance of power that requires we at least try and do this faster. We should at least try to move this as quickly as possible.”

    In 2021 Pitkin County Healthy Rivers granted $35,000 to Carbondale-based environmental conservation group Wilderness Workshop to start up a public outreach and education campaign, with the goal of laying a foundation of grassroots support for the effort. The organization has built a website, held events and collected about 1,000 signatures on a petition supporting the designation. The next step will be working with Pitkin County to hire a facilitator for a formal stakeholder process.

    At the June Healthy Rivers board meeting, Wilderness Workshop’s Wild & Scenic campaign manager Michael Gorman gave a presentation about progress so far. Board member Wendy Huber asked about the timeline and whether the process should be moving faster. Gorman said a designation could take several more years.

    “I’m feeling a little urgency,” she said. “To sort of dilly dally seems to be losing opportunities.”

    Grant Stevens, communications director for Wilderness Workshop, said that while he understands the community’s urgency, it’s important to develop a proposal that Colorado’s congressional representatives can get behind. A designation must be approved by Congress and advocates have been in contact with representatives from Sens. Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper’s offices.

    “We want to make sure we have something that a federal elected official will support, and we need to make sure we go through a community-driven process to get to that point,” Stevens said. “We don’t want to rush that.”

    The view looking upstream on the Crystal River below Avalanche Creek. A Pitkin County group wants to designate this section of the Crystal as Wild & Scenic.
    CREDIT: CURTIS WACKERLE/ASPEN JOURNALISM

    Designation details

    The U.S. Forest Service first determined in the 1980s that the Crystal River was eligible for designation under the Wild & Scenic River Act, which seeks to preserve rivers with outstandingly remarkable scenic, recreational, geologic, fish and wildlife, historic and cultural values in a free-flowing condition. There are three categories under a designation: wild, which are sections that are inaccessible by trail, with shorelines that are primitive; scenic, with shorelines that are largely undeveloped, but are accessible by roads in some places; and recreational, which are readily accessible by road or railroad and have development along the shoreline.

    The potential proposal for the Crystal includes all three types of designation: wild in the upper reaches of the river’s wilderness headwaters, scenic in the middle stretches and recreational from the town of Marble to the Sweet Jessup canal headgate. Each river with a Wild & Scenic designation has unique legislation written for it that can be customized to address local stakeholders’ values and concerns.

    Cache la Poudre River from South Trail via Wikimedia Foundation.

    Despite its renowned river rafting, fishing and scenic beauty, which contribute to the recreation-based economy of many Western Slope communities, Colorado has just 76 miles of one river — the Cache La Poudre — designated as Wild & Scenic. This underscores the difficulty of trying to preserve free-flowing streams, especially in a water-scarce region where some would like to see rivers remain available for future water development.

    This map shows the sections of the Crystal River that could be designated wild, scenic and recreational according to the finding of eligibility by the U.S. Forest Service.
    CREDIT: COURTESY ROARING FORK CONSERVANCY

    Stakeholder participation

    Since the Crystal flows through Gunnison County and the town of Marble, advocates say getting those residents and elected representatives on board will be key to moving the effort forward. A first attempt at a Wild & Scenic designation, which sought to prevent the possibility of a future dam and reservoir project, couldn’t get buy-in from some Marble residents or Gunnison County. Advocates shelved the discussion in 2016 with the election of President Donald Trump. This time around, they hope to secure at least the participation if not the support of past opponents.

    Marble Town Administrator Ron Leach acknowledged there is still a lot of work to be done as far as gauging public sentiment and building awareness.

    Leach has been heavily involved in the town’s multi-year process to address overcrowding on the Lead King loop, a popular off-highway vehicle route near Marble. He said when it comes to these things, slow and methodical is the right strategy and that town officials are totally supportive of the Wild & Scenic stakeholders group, in which he participates as the Marble representative.

    “The more process, the better the product,” Leach said. “I’ve learned that the hard way. Take it easy and make sure it’s right.”

    Gunnison County Commissioner Roland Mason agreed. He said more conversations need to happen before he could say whether Gunnison County would support a designation.

    “I appreciate the fact that they are not trying to rush the timeline,” Mason said. “From my perspective it’s moving at a little bit of a slow pace because of trying to get everyone on board but at the same time, it’s kind of necessary.”

    But supporters may never get everyone on board. Larry Darien, who owns a ranch on County Road 3 that borders the river, was one of the early opponents to the designation and still remains opposed to Wild & Scenic because of its potential effect on private property.

    While the Wild & Scenic Rivers Act does give the federal government the ability to acquire private land, there are many restrictions on those abilities. Condemnation is a tool that is rarely used, according to a Q&A document compiled by the Interagency Wild and Scenic Rivers Coordinating Council.

    “I’m not in favor of a dam on the Crystal River and I’m not in favor of water being taken out and sent someplace else and I’m not in favor of Wild & Scenic designation,” he said. “There are other ways we can manage this besides Wild & Scenic and I think that’s the way we need to go instead of getting the federal government involved.”

    The alternate route Darien is referring to is a collaboratively created alternative management plan on the Upper Colorado River, which offers some of the same protections as Wild & Scenic, but still allows for some water development.

    Advocates will have to decide whether total consensus is a realistic goal and if they should move forward even though some opposition remains.

    he headwaters of the Crystal River include the tributary of Yule Creek, the drainage seen to the left from an Eco-Flight, where Colorado Stone Quarries’ marble quarry is located. Some, including Pitkin County, would like to see the Crystal River designated under the federal Wild & Scenic River Act.
    CREDIT: HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM

    Threats to the Crystal?

    While there may be a general feeling of worry about drought and falling reservoir levels in the Colorado River basin overall, it’s unclear what — if any — specific, imminent threats there are to the upper Crystal River. In 2012, conservation group American Rivers deemed the Crystal one of the top 10 most endangered rivers. This was spurred by plans, which have since been scrapped, from the Colorado River Water Conservation District and the West Divide Conservation District to preserve water rights tied to reservoirs near Redstone.

    Still, in a place where much of the state’s headwaters are taken across the Continental Divide to thirsty Front Range cities, Wild & Scenic proponents say it could happen on the Crystal, even if those threats are currently hypothetical. Many of Colorado’s rivers have been overly tapped, but there’s still water left to develop on the Crystal.

    “To me, the greatest threat to the Crystal isn’t so much the storage facility, it’s that there’s still water in the Crystal,” said Pitkin County Attorney John Ely. “The biggest risk to the Crystal is just taking water out of the drainage. That’s why I think the (Wild & Scenic) effort is still worth doing.”

    Aspen Journalism covers water and rivers in collaboration with The Aspen Times.

    #Water resources to become less predictable with #ClimateChange, declining #snowpack will cause more variability in runoff, streamflow — NCAR/UCAR

    Declining snowpack will lead to more variable and unpredictable streamflow. Some of the snowmelt flowing in the Blue River as it joins the Colorado River near Kremmling, Colo., will reach the Lower Basin states. Dec. 3, 2019. Credit: Mitch Tobin, the Water Desk

    Click the link to read the article on the NCAR/UCAR website (David Hosansky):

    Water resources will fluctuate increasingly and become more and more difficult to predict in snow-dominated regions across the Northern Hemisphere by later this century, according to a comprehensive new climate change study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

    The research team found that, even in regions that keep receiving about the same amount of precipitation, streamflow will become more variable and unpredictable. As snowpack recedes in a warmer future and fails to provide reliable runoff, the amount and timing of water resources will become increasingly reliant on periodic episodes of rain.

    “Water managers will be at the whim of individual precipitation events instead of having four-to-six months lead time to anticipate snowmelt and runoff,” said NCAR scientist Will Wieder, the lead author. “Water management systems in snow-dominated regions are based on the predictability of snowpack and runoff, and much of that predictability could go away with climate change.”

    Observations show that snowpack is already melting earlier, and even declining in many regions. This decline will become so pronounced toward the end of the century that the amount of water contained in snowpack at the end of an average winter in parts of the U.S. Rocky Mountains could plummet by nearly 80 percent, the scientists found.

    The changes in runoff and streamflow are likely to have cascading impacts on ecosystems that depend on reliable water from snow, the study warns. Although the changes won’t be uniform across regions, more snow-free days and longer growing seasons will put stress on water resources, drying out soils in many areas and heightening fire risk.

    The study assumes that emissions of greenhouse gasses continue at a high rate (a scenario known as SSP3-7.0). Wieder said that the most severe impacts on snowpack, runoff, and ecosystems would likely be avoided if society successfully reduced greenhouse gas emissions.

    The scientists drew on an advanced set of computer simulations to fill in details about the future of water resources, showing the extent to which changes in temperature and precipitation will alter snow accumulation and runoff patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Although past research looked at the impacts of climate change on water availability, the new study focuses on the increasing variability of water resources.

    The study is being published the week of July 18 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. It was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation, which is NCAR’s sponsor.

    “A RACE WITH PREDICTABILITY”

    Many regions of Earth rely on the accumulation of snow during the winter and subsequent melting in the spring and summer for regulating runoff and streamflow. For years, however, scientists have warned that the snowpack will become thinner and melt earlier as more precipitation during the colder months falls as rain instead of snow, and as melting occurs at times during the winter instead of the spring runoff season.

    To determine how reduced snowpack will affect the variability of water resources, Wieder and his co-authors turned to a powerful NCAR-based climate model: the Community Earth System Model, version 2. They drew on a recently created database of simulations, known as the CESM2 Large Ensemble, to compare a past period (1940-1969) with a future period (2070-2099). The simulations were run on the Aleph supercomputer at the Institute for Basic Science supercomputer in Busan, South Korea.

    The results illuminate the extent to which widespread shifts in the timing and extent of water flows will occur in much of the world by 2100. There will be an average of about 45 more snow-free days yearly in the Northern Hemisphere, assuming high greenhouse gas emissions. The largest increases will occur in midlatitudes that are relatively warm and high-latitude maritime regions that are influenced by changes in sea ice.

    Many regions that rely the most on predictable relationships between snowpack and runoff will experience the largest loss in predictability because of a sharp decline in reliable pulses of spring runoff. These regions include the Rocky Mountains, Canadian Arctic, Eastern North America, and Eastern Europe. The authors warn that this will substantially complicate the management of freshwater resources, both for society and ecosystems.

    “We are in a race with predictability when it comes to streamflow because we’re trying to improve our forecasts through better data, models, and physical understanding, but these efforts are being canceled by the rapid disappearance of our best predictor: snow,” said Flavio Lehner, a professor of earth and atmospheric science at Cornell University and a co-author of the study. “It might be a race we’ll lose, but we’re trying to win it, and that is why we need to study these topics.”

    Although the reduced runoff will result in drier summertime soil conditions in much of the Northern Hemisphere, the simulations showed that certain regions — including East Asia, the Himalayas, and Northwestern North America — will maintain soil moisture because of increased rainfall.

    “Snow-related metrics are critical for informing society’s management of precious water resources,” said Keith Musselman, a hydrologist at the University of Colorado Boulder and co-author of the study. “As utilities and civil works agencies plan new reservoirs and other infrastructure to adapt to a changing climate, we must address basic research questions about the changing characteristics of winter snowpack and resulting streamflow that we have long relied upon.”

    ABOUT THE ARTICLE

    Title: “Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

    Authors: William R. Wieder, Daniel Kennedy, Flavio Lehner, Keith N. Musselman, Keith B. Rodgers, Nan Rosenbloom, Isla R. Simpson, Ryohei Yamaguchi
    Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

    The flight of the Nez Perce — USGS

    Click the link to read the article on the USGS website:

    Summer 2023 marks 146 years since the flight of the Nez Perce, when an indigenous tribe crossed Yellowstone in an attempt to reach Canada and during a running battle with the US army.

    Yellowstone Caldera Chronicles is a weekly column written by scientists and collaborators of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. This week’s contribution is from Cole Messa, Ph.D. student and Professor Ken Sims, both in the Department of Geology and Geophysics at the University of Wyoming.

    Throughout its history, Yellowstone has been frequented by numerous indigenous tribes. All of these groups have a unique and cherished tale bonding them with the land upon which Yellowstone sits, but perhaps one of the most harrowing and tragic recent stories is that of the Nez Perce (Nimiipu).

    Photo of Hinmatóowyalahtq̓it (Chief Joseph) taken in November 1877 by O.S. Goff in Bismarck. From Wikipedia (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Chief_Joseph-1877.jpg).

    In the summer of 1877, the gold rush and a series of treaty miscommunications resulted in the Nez Perce being driven from their homeland of the Wallowa Mountains in Oregon. A group of about 800 Nez Perce decided to refuse relocation to the newly established reservation, instead opting to seek a new home, led by their soft-spoken and stoic leader, Hinmatóowyalahtq̓it (also known as Chief Joseph). The voyage was meant to be peaceful, but skirmishes with settlers inevitably ensued, often times manifesting as back-and-forth revenge for killings committed during prior encounters. As a result, the Nez Perce’s trek to discover a new home, safe from the relentless encroachment of an ever-growing nation, became marked by fear and bloodshed.

    After an initial skirmish in Idaho, the U.S. Army began to pursue the band of Nez Perce on their march east from the Wallowa Mountains, first making contact at White Bird Battlefield in western Idaho on June 17, 1877. While the U.S. Army was being greeted by a 6-person peace party of Nez Perce carrying a while flag, a civilian volunteer opened fire, sparking a battle which resulted in heavy casualties and ignited the flight of the Nez Perce toward Canada. The Nez Perce would continue to encounter the U.S. Army on numerous occasions during their journey, including at the Clearwater Battlefield (northeastern Idaho) and the Big Hole Battlefield (western Montana), before the group entered Yellowstone National Park on August 23, 1877.

    Stinging from their loses at the 1876 Battle of Greasy Grass, or as it also known, the Battle of the Little Bighorn, and determined to punish the Nez Perce to discourage other indigenous tribes who might consider rebelling against the rule of the United States, the Nez Perce were pursued by over 2,000 U.S. Army soldiers. Yellowstone was not foreign country to the Nez Perce, who often visited the park in pursuit of its abundant resources and wild game. While within the park, the Nez Perce encountered 25 tourists, and looting of supplies and multiple revenge killings occurred. Today, you can follow the path of the Nez Perce through Yellowstone National Park along park roads near Nez Perce Creek, Otter Creek, Nez Perce Ford, and Indian Pond. The Nez Perce forded the Yellowstone River at Nez Perce Ford, traveled through Pelican Valley and Hoodoo Basin, and passed over the Absaroka Mountains, finally exiting Yellowstone National Park to head north towards the Canadian border, where they hoped to find safety. Before they could reach their destination, the Nez Perce were stopped by the U.S. Army once more in the foothills of the Bear’s Paw Mountains of northern Montana, only 40 miles away from Canada.

    Route followed by a band of Nez Perce (or, in their language, Nimiipu or Nee-Me-Poo) in 1877. A band of 800 men, women, and children—plus almost 2,000 horses—left their homeland in what is now Oregon and Idaho pursued by the US Army. The group crossed through Yellowstone National Park in their attempt to reach Canada, and they were ultimately captured by US Army forces in northern Montana. Courtesy of the National park Service Yellowstone Spatial Analysis Center (https://www.nps.gov/yell/learn/historyculture/flightnezperce.htm).

    This epic journey of the Nez Perce covered more than 1,170 miles across four states and multiple mountain ranges, and about 250 Nez Perce warriors held off the pursuing US Army troops in 18 battles, skirmishes, and engagements. Ultimately, hundreds of US soldiers and Nez Perce (including women and children) were killed in these conflicts before the Nez Perce surrendered, and Chief Joseph—one of the last surviving chiefs of the band—gave the now-famous speech* in which he said, “From where the sun now stands, I will fight no more forever.” Some of the Nez Perce were able to reach Canada, but the rest, including Chief Joseph, accepted resettlement in numerous reservations throughout the American northwest. Chief Joseph would pass away in 1904 at the age of 64 on the Colville Indian Reservation (WA) of a “broken heart”, per his doctor’s account. He is buried near the village of Nespelem, WA.

    Yellowstone National Park is a place of wonder, beauty, and almost spiritual significance to all who look upon its enchanting landscape. But long before western society encroached upon its borders, indigenous people revered this land for its resources and cultural importance. The next time you find yourself driving along Wyoming Highway 296, also known as the Chief Joseph Scenic Byway, on your way to visit Yellowstone National Park, remember the flight, and plight, of the Nez Perce, who walked the very trail upon which you drive.

    You can visit numerous Nez Perce Commemorative Sites of Nez Perce National Historical Park along the 1,170-mile Nez Perce National Historic Trail, stretching from Wallowa Lake, Oregon, to the Bear’s Paw Mountains, Montana. For more details, see https://www.nps.gov/nepe/index.htm.

    North American Indian regional losses 1850 thru 1890.

    My people have lived in the Amazon for 6,000 years: You need to listen to us — #Climate Home News

    Indigenous leader and activist Txai Suruí (Photo: Gabriel Uchida )

    Click the link to read the article on the Climate Home News website (Txai Suruí):

    Everything I know and love about nature has been passed down to me from my ancestors.

    I am only 25 years old but my people have been living in the Amazon rainforest for at least 6,000 years. I follow our ancient traditions that allow us to live in harmony with nature and protect the rainforest in which we live.

    When corporations look at my home in the Amazon rainforest, they don’t see the intricacies of the trees’ roots, the way they weave their way in and out of rich soil. They don’t pay attention to the sound of raindrops as they hit leaves, small and large. They do not see a land capable of sustaining life on Earth, a land that needs protection, a land that is sacred. Instead, they see commodities.

    Today, my peoples’ mission to protect nature is becoming impossible. The climate is warming rapidly, the animals are disappearing and the flowers are not blooming like they did before.

    And when we try to protect our environment from the powers that be, we are bullied, harassed, and sometimes even murdered.

    My childhood friend, Ari Uru-eu-wau-wau, was murdered for protecting the forests from illegal loggers, farmers and miners. His story is shared in a documentary I helped produce called The Territory. It was co-produced by the Indigenous Uru-Eu-Wau-Wau people and chronicles their struggle to defend the land on which Ari and his ancestors have lived for millennia.

    The murder of British journalist Dom Phillips and indigenous expert Bruno Pereira in the Amazon is not an isolated case. It’s a tragedy that there are so many other cases like this.

    My husband is also a journalist based in the Amazon and he has received death threats for reporting on illegal activities. My father, my mother and so many of my friends also face regular intimidation and threats for defending their ancestral land.

    The justice we are calling for extends beyond those holding the guns that are killing Earth defenders. We want Brazil’s leaders whose actions or lack thereof, are allowing this violence to go rampant, to be held to account too.

    Since President Jair Bolsonaro took office in Brazil three years ago, his administration has made it a priority to weaken environmental protections. The government agency supposed to protect Indigenous Peoples’ rights, was turned against us. This has resulted in grim records for deforestation in Brazil.

    Despite the government’s pledges at Cop26 to end and reverse deforestation by 2030, the Brazilian Amazon saw a 64% jump in deforestation in the first three months of 2022 compared to the previous year – which was already up from the year before that.

    Although international pressure from companies and countries which buy agricultural products from Brazil has increased, we cannot ignore the fact that several multinational corporations are still profiting from the anti-environment and anti-indigenous legislation being pushed in Brazil.

    That’s why my father, the great Chief Almir Suruí, together with Chief Raoni Metuktire of the Kayapo people, presented a formal request to the International Criminal Court in The Hague last year to investigate what is happening in Brazil. They are demanding that those responsible are held accountable for crimes against humanity.

    As we wait for a decision, we wonder: will our evidence be taken seriously? Will the countries that promised to uphold human rights and protect the Earth keep their word? How many more will be killed in a senseless war on the environment and those who protect it before things change?

    And much like we must protect peoples’ rights, we need to defend the ecosystems that support us. This is why I am calling on the international community to request the International Criminal Court to recognise the crime of ecocide. Courts around the world have long claimed that they want to fight environmental crime. Now they have the chance to turn their words into actions and recognise the attacks against my home in the Amazon for what they are: ecocide.

    I ask world leaders, especially from the Global North: Have you given up living on Earth? Why do indigenous peoples have to protect more than 80% of the world’s biodiversity with so little support while the rich dream of colonising other planets?

    The mistakes that have brought us to this climate crisis are a heavy burden. But you cannot run away from it. We can still fight! Join us and support indigenous land defenders.

    I have been raised with the understanding that in order to live harmoniously on this planet we must listen to the stars, the moon, the wind, the animals and the trees. We must listen to the Earth. She is speaking and her message is clear: we have no time to waste.

    Txai Suruí is an Indigenous leader and activist from the Brazilian Amazon. She leads the Rondônia Indigenous Youth Movement and the Kanindé Association and is the executive producer of the award-winning documentary The Territory.

    Guest column #Water Talks: The crisis of the #ColoradoRiver system — The Ark Valley Voice

    Glen Canyon Dam creates water storage on the Colorado River in Lake Powell, which is just 27% full in June 2022. Bureau data on the reservoir’s water-storage volume showed a loss of 443,000 acre-feet. Credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

    Click the link to read the column on the Ark Valley Voice website (Terry Scanga):

    It should be obvious to anyone; trying to fill a bathtub with the drain wide open is foolish. This is precisely what the operators of the Colorado River System (Lake Powell and Lake Mead) have been attempting to do for the past 20 years. They have disregarded the increased withdrawals to the Lower Basin states (California, Arizona, and Nevada) and the ubiquitous arid nature of the Southwest.

    The Colorado River system and the Colorado Compact Administration were set up with a series of reservoirs recognizing the aridity of the region and the unpredictable amount of annual precipitation. With reservoirs, when water is more abundant the excess can be stored for later use when the inevitably drier periods arrive. In recent years, instead of reserving excess flows in the reservoirs, this excess was released to the lower basin states with the resultant excess draw-down of the vital storage system.

    Most of the water supply for the Colorado River System is supplied by the Upper Basin States, Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico. As planned, these states have continuously supplied the required 75-million-acre feet in 10 years, or an average of 7.5 million per year.

    The amount of water that each of these states uses each year is completely dependent upon precipitation and in Colorado is allocated strictly by the prior appropriation system without the benefit of a storage system to draw upon for leaner years except for water saved under the prior appropriation system. As such Colorado’s prior appropriation system automatically operates as a forced reduction in water use—a built-in “conservation brake”.

    In contrast, the Lower Basin States, California, Arizona, and Nevada receive their Colorado River supply from reservoirs and have the luxury of taking any excess deliveries in wetter years or drawing previously saved water from storage in drier years.

    The prudent regime would be to reserve the excess amounts in storage for use during drier periods. Instead of this exercise of prudence, the Lower Basin states have continuously gambled those wetter periods would arrive and replenish the reservoirs.

    In the chart below, we clearly see how Colorado and the Upper Basin states have reduced their use during drought while the Lower Basin states have increased their use during the same period.

    The primary purpose of Lake Powell and Lake Mead is for hydro-power production and secondarily for drinking and irrigation. The falling levels of these reservoirs spell disaster for power production and now the Bureau of Reclamation is sounding the alarm.

    Unfortunately, unless drastic measures are taken that significantly reduce the annual draw by the Lower Basin States for the foreseeable future, all Colorado River reservoirs will be jeopardized. Blue Mesa and Flaming Gorge have already been lowered to rescue the Lower Basin reservoirs. The present crisis is more about having allowed the Lower Basin to over appropriate water from the system than the impact of the drier period of the past 20 years.

    In Colorado, the Arkansas Basin and the entire Eastern portion of Colorado depend on a significant portion of its water from Colorado River system imports. In the Arkansas, about 15 percent of all river flows are derived from this system.

    In drier periods these flows have always been reduced since they are regulated by the prior appropriation system. However, further reductions could come if the Lower Basin is not forced to comply with the Compact. It is possible that political forces could reduce the amount of water exported to the Eastern portion of Colorado — and that includes the Arkansas Basin.

    By: Ralph “Terry” Scanga, General Manager. Upper Arkansas Water Conservancy District

    Graphic via Holly McClelland/High Country News.

    #Water22 Live Stream: Kevin Fedarko

    Here’s to weekends on wild rivers! And to cool boats that make a statement. There is no ride like a classic dory – and the Glen Canyon is a special boat. You must give this a try sometime if you haven’t already. So cool! @AmericanRivers

    Usability study for the drought.gov website — Ashlyn Shore #drought

    West Drought Monitor map July 12, 2022.

    From email from Ashlyn Shore:

    We are working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) to investigate the usability of the drought.gov website. The usability study consists of a short virtual interview to learn about a participant’s affiliation and professional experience, followed by an exercise using scenarios on the website. We are hoping to hear from a diverse set of backgrounds, including farmers, master gardeners, agriculture extension groups, environmental reporters, drought management plan authors, and other water supply professionals…

    UNC Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center (NEMAC) is working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) to investigate the usability of the http://drought.gov website.

    A usability study consists of a short virtual interview followed by an exercise using scenarios on the drought.gov website. The session is virtual and typically lasts about 30 minutes. If you are interested in participating, please enter your name and email address in this form.

    Your feedback is invaluable and we appreciate your consideration. Usability only works when people like you participate!

    I wish everyone on Earth knew how genuinely “off the charts” key planetary trends are right now, and how abnormal and critical it is — Peter Kalmus @ClimateHuman #ActOnClimate

    Guest essay: What Joe Manchin Cost Us: “Mr. Manchin’s grandchildren will grow up knowing that his legacy is #climate destruction” — The New York Times (Lean C. Stokes) #ActOnClimate

    Denver School Strike for Climate, September 20, 2019.

    Click the link to read the essay on The New York Times website (Leah C. Stokes):

    Over the last year and a half, I’ve dissected every remark I could find in the press from Senator Joe Manchin on climate change. With the fate of our planet hanging in the balance, his every utterance was of global significance. But his statements have been like a weather vane, blowing in every direction. It’s now clear that Mr. Manchin has wasted what little time this Congress had left to make real progress on the climate crisis.

    Since early 2021, congressional Democrats and President Biden have worked relentlessly to negotiate a climate policy package. When Build Back Better passed the House last fall, it included $555 billion in clean energy and climate investments. After four decades of gridlock in Congress, the Democrats were poised to finally pass a major climate bill, with agreement from 49 senators. But yesterday, one man torched the deal, and with it the climate: Mr. Manchin.

    By stringing his colleagues along, Mr. Manchin didn’t just waste legislators’ time. He also delayed crucial regulations that would cut carbon pollution. Wary of upsetting the delicate negotiations, the Biden administration has held back on using the full force of its executive authority on climate over the past 18 months, likely in hopes of securing legislation first.

    The stakes of delay could not be higher. Last summer, while the climate negotiations dragged on, record-breaking heat waves killed hundreds of Americans. Hurricanes, wildfires and floods pummeled the country from coast to coast. Over the last 10 years, the largest climate and weather disasters have cost Americans more than a trillion dollars — far more than the Democrats had hoped to spend to stop the climate crisis. With each year we delay, the climate impacts keep growing. We do not have another month, let alone another year or decade, to wait for Mr. Manchin to negotiate in good faith.

    The climate investments in the bill ranged from incentives for clean power like wind and solar, to support for electric vehicles. They were essential to meeting President Biden’s goal of cutting carbon pollution in half from its 2005 levels by 2030 — the United States’ contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Congress’s failure to act means that, under the best case scenario with the policies we already have in place, we will only get 70 percent of the way there.

    After months of stop-and-start discussions, with Mr. Manchin repeatedly walking away from the negotiations, Congress has largely run out of time. Democrats need to pass their reconciliation package this summer, and despite weeks of round-the-clock effort from Senator Chuck Schumer, the majority leader, and his team, Mr. Manchin has now refused to agree to vote for spending on climate. While he claimed on a West Virginia talk show on Friday that it wasn’t over, that “we’ve had good conversations, we’ve had good negotiations,” this is doublespeak; he simply doesn’t want to be held accountable for his actions. He has consistently said one thing and done another.

    Mr. Manchin’s refusal to agree to climate investments will hurt the economy he claims he wants to protect. The package would have built domestic manufacturing, supporting more than 750,000 climate jobs annually. It would have also fought inflation, helping to make energy bills more affordable for everyday Americans. This is particularly ironic since Mr. Manchin said inflation was the chief reason he was uncomfortable with supporting tax incentives for clean energy right now.

    Over the past year, Mr. Manchin has taken more money from the oil and gas industry than any other member of Congress — including every Republican — according to federal filings. A Times investigation found that he also personally profited from coal, making roughly $5 million between 2010 and 2020 — about three times his Senate salary. Coal has made Mr. Manchin a millionaire, even as it has poisoned the air his own constituents in West Virginia breathe.

    As Upton Sinclair put it: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

    But one thing I have never understood about Mr. Manchin is how he looks his grandchildren in the eye. While he may leave his descendants plenty of money, they will also inherit a broken planet. Like other young people, Mr. Manchin’s grandchildren will grow up knowing that his legacy is climate destruction.

    5 Things to Know About #Drought in the American West — Circle of Blue

    The largest saline lake in the western hemisphere, the Great Salt Lake dropped to a record low in 2022 as a result of a hot drought that increased evaporation and decreased water flows. USGS technician at the Great Salt Lake July 20, 2021. Photo credit: USGS

    Click the link to read the article on the Circle of Blue website (Brett Walton):

    Harsh and unrelenting. But also transformative?

    The dry conditions blanketing much of the American West are setting records nearly every week. Lakes Mead and Powell, the country’s largest reservoirs by capacity, dropped to new lows this year. The Great Salt Lake did, too. This spring, New Mexico endured its largest ever wildfire. Even with those distinctions, more are likely on the way. The hottest months of the year are still to come.

    Shortened time frames are now the norm. Water cuts that were once nearly unthinkable even in the long term in the Colorado River basin are now being implemented in a matter of months, not years or decades. Still, some see opportunity in calamity, a chance to reposition the region for trials to come.

    “While the situation is objectively bleak, it is not in my view unsolvable,” John Entsminger, the general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority, told a Senate panel on June 14. Basin officials are steeling themselves for short, intense negotiations.

    It amounts to a season of potentially long-lasting change for some of the country’s fastest-growing states and biggest economies.

    Here are five things to know about how the drought is re-writing the story of America’s drylands.

    1) It’s a Hot Drought

    The drought is not just a failure of precipitation. Rising temperatures due to global warming are also depleting the region’s rivers.

    The mechanisms are easy to understand. Extreme heat bakes the land surface. Warmer, drier air holds more water. Parched soils then gobble rain and melting snow before the water reaches rivers and reservoirs. A thirsty atmosphere evaporates or sublimates its share. Together, they are a powerful one-two punch.

    With increasing temperatures, “we’re seeing places that do have drought, the intensification is more rapid,” says Roger Pulwarty, a senior scientist in the physical sciences laboratory at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    The Colorado River basin illustrates the impacts of a hot drought. According to the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, precipitation in the watershed above Lake Powell since October was 94 percent of the 30-year average. In other words, just a tick below normal. Snowpack peaked at 83 percent of average. Yet only a fraction of that water made it into Lake Powell. Runoff into the lake this summer is just 56 percent of average. A hot drought is a stealthy thief.

    Glen Canyon Dam creates water storage on the Colorado River in Lake Powell, which is just 27% full in June 2022. Bureau data on the reservoir’s water-storage volume showed a loss of 443,000 acre-feet. Credit: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

    2) Drought Has a Long Reach

    When water stops flowing, difficult days are ahead.

    Forests become tinder boxes, a spark removed from calamity. Already there have been massive disruptions. U.S. Forest Service staff lost control of a prescribed burn in Santa Fe National Forest in April, resulting in the 341,000-acre Hermits Peak-Calf Canyon fire, the largest wildfire on record in New Mexico.

    “Drought, extreme weather, wind conditions and unpredictable weather changes are challenging our ability to use prescribed fire as a tool to combat destructive fires,” wrote Randy Moore, the chief of the U.S. Forest Service, in an incident assessment.

    Hydropower is weakened. With less water in reservoirs, generators crank out fewer megawatt-hours, raising the cost of electricity and increasing the risk of summer blackouts. In California last year, hydropower generation was nearly half the 10-year average. This year, Glen Canyon Dam is operating at just 60 percent of its maximum electrical generating capacity due to the drying of Lake Powell.

    There are human health consequences when lakes are depleted. Earlier this month, the Great Salt Lake dropped to its lowest point since record-keeping began in 1847. Receding shores expose more lakebed salts and dust, which become a respiratory hazard during windstorms — and can hasten snowmelt in the mountains.

    Ecosystems — and the birds and fish that depend on them — are also under stress. Utah regulators have identified high numbers of toxin-producing algae in the southern reaches of Utah Lake, a water body notorious for summer algae outbreaks. In California, sampling carried out in June by the Environmental Protection Department of the Big Valley Band of Pomo Indians revealed algal toxins in Clear Lake that were higher than state advisory levels. These hazardous outbreaks typically worsen deeper in the summer.

    3) Cutbacks Are Inevitable

    When supply ebbs and reservoirs are near record lows, authorities have one durable tactic: reduce demand.

    In fits and starts, that is happening. California regulators passed an emergency order in June that took small steps to address the supply-demand imbalance. The order prohibits businesses, industries, schools, churches, and other institutions from watering “non-functional” grass with potable water. What’s non-functional? Grass that covers median strips and office parks.

    Cities and farms that are customers of the two major canals in California — one state and one federal — already had their allocations substantially reduced as a result of below-average reservoirs. With less water, irrigators will fallow more land.

    The largest cuts, however, will be in the Colorado River basin. Camille Touton, the commissioner of the Bureau of Reclamation, said in June that the states would have to reduce their draw on the river by two million to four million acre-feet in the next year.

    Entsminger of the Southern Nevada Water Authority called the proposed cuts “a degree of demand management previously considered unattainable.”

    Their plan is due next month.

    4) Drought Is Political

    The right to use water in the western states is subject to arcane laws, court decrees, and precedents, some of which date to the era of colonial settlement.

    Persistently dry conditions and a reckoning with historical inequities are forcing residents and lawmakers to reassess the established way of doing business.

    In June, the Nevada Supreme Court upheld a groundwater management plan for Diamond Valley irrigators that abandons long-held principles of state water law, such as the priority system that privileges senior water rights and “use it or lose it” requirements.

    Activists in Arizona are gathering signatures to put groundwater regulation on the ballot. Their citizen’s initiative would ask voters to approve two Active Management Areas in Cochise and Graham counties, places where big farming operations have dried up shallow wells and caused the ground to fracture, damaging highways.

    “Dams Not Trains” billboards dot the highways of California’s Central Valley, a plea by the region’s biggest farmers for legislators to redirect their spending preferences. At the same time, a budget proposal in the California Legislature would direct $1.5 billion to buy senior water rights from farmers in order to keep more water in rivers.

    A relatively recent development is the political muscle of the region’s Indian tribes. Acting as dealmakers, tribes have emerged as key players in water supply negotiations, particularly in Arizona, where the Gila River Indian Community has leased water to cities and pledged to conserve 129,000 acre-feet this year to boost water levels in Lake Mead.

    Brad Udall: Here’s the latest version of my 4-Panel plot thru Water Year (Oct-Sep) of 2021 of the Colorado River big reservoirs, natural flows, precipitation, and temperature. Data (PRISM) goes back or 1906 (or 1935 for reservoirs.) This updates previous work with @GreatLakesPeck.

    5) Drought Is Probably the Wrong Word

    To some researchers and advocates, we shouldn’t even be calling this a drought.

    Drought, they say, implies a temporary condition, a deviation from normal.

    But what is happening in the Colorado River basin and other western regions is a shift toward a drier climate.

    Even though precipitation in this two-decade period is anomalously and historically low, climate modeling suggests that the region is not going to snap back to the wetter periods of a generation ago.

    To describe this new era, they prefer a different term: aridification. Clunky, perhaps. But more accurate.

    A collective of respected Colorado River scholars argued in a 2018 paper that language change was necessary and could possibly induce behavioral change on the scale required to meet the challenge.

    “A very modest starting point,” they wrote, “is to admit words such as drought and normal no longer serve us well, as we are no longer in a waiting game; we are now in a period that demands continued, decisive action on many fronts.”

    Brett Walton

    Brett writes about agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and the politics and economics of water in the United States. He also writes the Federal Water Tap, Circle of Blue’s weekly digest of U.S. government water news.

    Lawn Lake flood 40 years ago changed #EstesPark — The #Loveland Reporter-Herald

    Lawn Lake Flood

    Click the link to read the article on the Loveland Reporter-Herald website (Dallas Heltzell |). Here’s an excerpt:

    A disaster 40 years ago today changed the face of downtown Estes Park, and its tourism-dependent businesses still are reaping the benefits of a landscaped riverwalk and other improvements…Lawn Lake, at 10,789 feet at the headwaters of Roaring River in what now is Rocky Mountain National Park and eight miles west of Estes Park, originally was a 16.4-acre natural body of water dammed by a glacial moraine. However, in 1903, 12 years before the park’s founding, the Farmers Irrigation Ditch and Reservoir Co. added a dam to supply water to farmlands around Loveland. By 1982, the reservoir covered 48 acres and was up to 35 feet deep. The dam was allowed to remain when the park was founded, but access for maintenance and inspections deteriorated over the years…

    Within six weeks after the flood, town trustees approved the EPURA, and the foundation paid the legal costs to develop the ordinance needed. Gov. Dick Lamm obtained a federal disaster declaration from President Ronald Reagan, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency “took over the overall management of trying to put the town together again,” Rosener said. “They were tremendous.”

    Foundation members recruited urban designers and “convinced the town to hire them,” Rosener said, “and we created an urban renewal plan. All of my team worked over the next 12 to 14 months to create the plan, construction began in 1984 and was done in about two years.”

    One building at the intersection of Elkhorn Avenue and Riverside Drive had to be demolished to make way for the design’s Confluence Park, where the Fall and Big Thompson rivers met, Rosener said. Along Elkhorn, narrow sidewalks were widened and parallel parking eliminated. Private businesses were encouraged to update their properties, Rosener said, and tearing up Elkhorn Avenue to redo it revealed “a main waterline made out of wood slats wrapped in steel bands. There were all kinds of issues with telephone and gas — it was just a spider web when they opened up Elkhorn.” Because East Elkhorn Avenue carried U.S. Highways 34 and 36, “we had to convince the state to give up one lane of traffic” — a decision that aided the beautification but also, three decades later, fueled the controversial one-way “Loop” proposal. But the result, Thomas said, was that “the new urban-renewal authority formed after the flood beautified the town and created a streetscape that totally changed the face of downtown” and provided a venue for some new river-facing businesses. “Instead of having these ugly areas behind stores, they turned the focus back toward the rivers. Now we have the riverwalk, we have park benches, we have new lighting. We have trees planted along Elkhorn Avenue. All of that was the result of the Lawn Lake flood.”

    #SanJuanRiver flow below median despite wet June — The #PagosaSpringsSun #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

    Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website (Josh Pike). Here’s an excerpt:

    Stream flow for the San Juan River on July 13 at approximately 9 a.m. was 132 cubic feet per second (cfs), according to the U.S. Geological Service (USGS) National Water Dashboard. This is down from a nighttime peak of 150 cfs at 4 a.m. on July 13. Flows are down from last week’s reading of 328 cfs at 9 a.m. on July 6 and from that day’s nighttime peak of 499 cfs at 2:45 a.m. The median flow for July 13 for the period between 1987 and 2022 is 205 cfs. Last year, the San Juan River was at 86.1 cfs at 9 a.m. on July 13, down from a nighttime peak of 102 cfs at 9:15 p.m. on July 12.

    Colorado Drought Monitor map July 12, 2022.

    Drought

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) reports that 100 percent of the county is experiencing drought. Although June 2022 was the second wettest June in 128 years, with 2.48 more inches of precipitation than normal, 2022 to date is the 33rd driest year in the last 128 years, with 2.84 inches of precipitation less than normal, according to the NIDIS.

    The NIDIS places the entire county in a severe drought, which the
    website notes may cause farmers to reduce planting, producers to sell cattle and the wildfire season to be extended, among other impacts. The NIDIS also notes that a severe drought is associated with low surface water levels and reduced river flows.

    The NIDIS provides an evaporative demand (EDDI) forecast…The forecast for the area indicates that in the next two weeks, the majority of Archuleta County will be experiencing a mix of severe wet and extreme wet conditions while the four-week forecast shows the county will be experiencing a mix of severe wet and moderate wet conditions.

    The Pagosa Area Water and Sanitation District (PAWSD) board will hold a public hearing concerning proposed upgrades to the Snowball #Water Treatment Plant on August 18, 2022 — The #PagosaSprings Sun

    The water treatment process

    Click the link to read the article on the Pagosa Springs Sun website. (Josh Pike). Here’s an excerpt:

    He explained that the engineer had estimated that the cost would be $25 million but that the contractor placed the price at “closer to $40 million,” necessitating that PAWSD reapply for a larger loan. The meeting will be held at 5 p.m. at the PAWSD administrative office at 100 Lyn Ave.

    They sounded alarms about a coming #ColoradoRiver crisis. But warnings went unheeded — The Los Angeles Times #COriver #aridification

    Brad Udall: Here’s the latest version of my 4-Panel plot thru Water Year (Oct-Sep) of 2021 of the Colorado River big reservoirs, natural flows, precipitation, and temperature. Data (PRISM) goes back or 1906 (or 1935 for reservoirs.) This updates previous work with @GreatLakesPeck.

    Click the link to read the article on The Los Angeles Times website (Ian James). Here’s an excerpt:

    Now, many of the scientists’ dire predictions are coming to pass, with Lake Mead and Lake Powell nearly three-fourths empty and their water levels continuing to fall. Some researchers say the seven states that depend on the river would have been better prepared had they acted years ago.

    “If I’ve learned anything recently, it’s that humans are really reluctant to give things up to prevent a catastrophe,” said Brad Udall, a water and climate scientist at Colorado State University. “They’re willing to hang on to the very end and risk a calamity.”

    He said it’s just like humanity’s lack of progress in addressing climate change despite decades of warnings by scientists. If larger cuts in water use were made sooner, Udall said, the necessary reductions could have been phased in and would have been much easier.

    Peter Gleick, a water and climate scientist and co-founder of the Pacific Institute, said the collective failure to heed scientists’ repeated warnings is “directly responsible for how bad conditions are today.”

    “If we had cut water use in the Colorado River over the last two decades to what we now understand to be the actual levels of water availability, there would be more water in the reservoirs today,” Gleick said. “The crisis wouldn’t be nearly as bad.”

    Map credit: AGU

    Public can inform future management of the #ColoradoRiver — #Arizona Public Radio #COriver #aridification

    Water levels in Lake Mead have dropped to historic lows over the past year, triggering a shortage declaration on the Colorado River. Some of the frameworks that govern how the river is managed are set to expire in 2026. As states and stakeholders negotiate the next management framework, tribal nations want to make sure they have a seat at the table. Photo by Jeffrey Hayes / Flickr

    Click the link to read the article on the Arizona Public Radio website (Melissa Sevigny). Here’s an excerpt:

    Several key pieces of the rules that govern the Colorado River Basin are set to expire in 2026, including guidelines for dealing with drought and water shortage. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has asked for the public’s input on what should come next. KNAU’s Melissa Sevigny spoke about the opportunity to shape the Southwest’s future with University of New Mexico water policy expert John Fleck.

    Who is at the table for these negotiations?

    That’s actually such a great question, because it’s not entirely clear. The states—the appointed representatives that each governor appoints on behalf of each of the seven Colorado River Basin states—and then representations of the federal government …. But, there is a strong desire, on the part of a lot of people, and I count myself among those groups, to recognize the fact that tribal communities are sovereign nations [within] the basin that have been traditionally excluded from these processes…and then as a practical matter, major water users within the states also participate either formally at the negotiating table, or if you can imagine a metaphorical meeting room, standing round the back whispering in the ears of the people sitting at the table.

    What questions should we be asking about what comes next?

    Someone, somewhere is going to be using less water than they are now, a lot less water…But the question is, how do we apportion those cutbacks? Do the states in the Lowe Basin which have been using by far the most water, and arguably overusing, like folks in Arizona, do they have to cutback more deeply?…Do the states in the Upper Basin agree, we need to share the pain and cut back as well?…So there’s really a lot of tension. And then the most interesting tension is broad and spans the entire basin, which is, to what extent are the cutbacks going to be felt in agricultural irrigation communities?…There’s no way around there’s going to be less irrigated agriculture going forward as a result of climate change and drought and the reality that we’ve pretty much drained the reservoirs as far as we can, but the question of how you apportion those cuts and who takes bigger cuts, and who gets compensated for giving up water, perhaps, those are the kinds of questions that are going to be on the table…

    Comments can be submitted until September 1 by emailing CRB-info@usbr.gov. More information can be found in the Federal Register.

    Extreme #drought, #sawfly infestation cause wheat yields to plummet: CSU scientists are working on strains of drought- and bug-resistant wheat — The #Sterling Journal-Advocate

    Peetz Town Hall via Armchair Explorer.

    Click the link to read the article on the Sterling Journal-Advocate website (Jeff Rice). Here’s an excerpt:

    Wheat production in northeast Colorado is down by half or more, according to reports from area grain elevators, and experts put the blame on .an exceptionally dry year and an infestation of wheat stem sawfly. Although no hard numbers are yet available – the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s field workers are gathering that information now – reports from elevators in Sterling, Julesburg, Peetz and Haxtun are estimating between 20 and 30 bushels per acre and, in some hard-hit areas, as little as three bushels per acre…

    Nationwide, the USDA has projected harvests of around 47 bushels per acre, or about 8 percent less than normal. But here in the shadow of the Rocky Mountains, an almost complete absence of moisture has driven that number down even further…

    Colorado Drought Monitor map July 12, 2022.

    According to the U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday, northeast Colorado remains in the grip of a severe to extreme drought, wile moderate to severe drought conditions cover most of the rest of the state. The best drought conditions in the state are along the Front Range, where upslope conditions wring water out of moist air moving over the Rockies, although even there it is mostly abnormally dry…

    As if the drought wasn’t bad enough, wheat farmers face an old bug with a new appetite. Meyer said wheat stem sawfly has actually been around eastern Colorado since the late 1800s, but kept mostly to hollow-stemmed prairie grasses. The fly lays eggs on grass stems and when the larva hatch, they burrow into the stem and work their way down until the cut the stem off near the ground. Over the past five years, Meyer said, the flies have discovered wheat and increasingly migrated into wheat fields. A tour of area wheat fields by this reporter over the past two weeks showed that some fields showed as much as 50 percent sawfly destruction.

    The counties in brown have experienced their driest January-June in the historical record, while those in dark teal have had their wettest. Note the swaths of brown in #CA and #NV — @DroughtDenise #drought

    County precipitation ranks January through June 2022. Credit: NOAA

    Secretarial #Drought Designations for 2022 encompass 925 primary counties and 209 contiguous counties as of July 1 — @DroughtCenter

    Secretarial drought designations as of July 1, 2022. Credit: USDA
    US Drought Monitor map July 12, 2022.

    Bargains Don’t Get More Faustian Than Selling Off the Town’s #Water: If you sell off your water, you’re going to get hosed — Esquire

    Click the link to read the article on the Esquire website (Charles P. Pierce). Here’s an excerpt:

    Water and sewer privatization has been going on for a while now. According to the folks at http://foodandwaterwatch.org, customers of private water systems pay 59 percent higher rates than do customers of public systems, and the rates in areas with private water systems increase an average of three times the rate of inflation.

    And, all math aside, if water is not a basic human right, then nothing is. The United Nations declared as much in 2010. As water supplies around the world edge into the critical zone, the time to protect that human right against profiteering and corporate pillage is now, before the situation gets irreversible and we find that all our water is owned by some hedge-fund cowboys with bank accounts in the Caymans.

    Turning a buck on water is very much like subletting the air, which I’m sure someone is working on as we speak.

    The latest #ENSO diagnostic discussion is hot off the presses from the #Climate Prediction Center

    Plume of ENSO indicators July 2022 via the Climate Predication Center

    Click the link to read the discussion on the Climate Prediction Center website:

    ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

    Synopsis: La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July-September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance).

    During June, below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) weakened across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean with SSTs returning to near-average in the east-central Pacific, as reflected by the Niño indices, which ranged from -0.4oC to -1.2oC during the past week. Subsurface temperatures anomalies averaged between 180°-100°W and 0-300m depth were weakly positive in June. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted near the surface to ~75m depth in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, with above-average temperatures at depth (~100 to 200m) in the western and central Pacific Ocean. Low-level easterly wind anomalies prevailed in the western and central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level westerly wind anomalies continued over most of the equatorial Pacific. Convection remained suppressed over the western and central Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system was consistent with La Niña conditions.

    The most recent IRI/CPC plume average for the Niño-3.4 SST index now forecasts La Niña to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23. The forecaster consensus also predicts La Niña to persist during the remainder of 2022, with odds for La Niña remaining at 60% or greater through early winter. Lowest odds occur during the next few months with a 60% chance of La Niña and a 39% chance of ENSO-neutral during July-September 2022. Subsequently, chances of La Niña increase slightly during the fall and early winter. In summary, La Niña is favored to continue through 2022 with the odds for La Niña decreasing into the Northern Hemisphere late summer (60% chance in July- September 2022) before increasing through the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter 2022 (62-66% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

    Helicopters are back in the air to protect northern #Colorado’s #water — KUNC

    Aerial mulching. Photo credit: Colorado State Forest Service

    Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Alex Hager):

    Work to protect water quality on the northern Front Range resumes this week with a whir of helicopter blades in Poudre Canyon. For the second year in a row, those aircraft will drop mulch on areas burned by the Cameron Peak Fire in 2020 — an effort to stabilize burned soil and keep ashy debris out of rivers.

    Colorado’s largest-ever wildfire left a charred moonscape, with soil turned into gray dust and shards of blackened trees and plants littering the ground. When it rains, ash and sediment can be swept downhill into rivers that supply water to town pipes. In 2021, that forced the City of Fort Collins to stop treating water from the river and switch to an alternate supply from Horsetooth Reservoir…

    Last year, crews dropped wood shards on 5,050 acres in the Cache La Poudre and Big Thompson watersheds. This summer, they hope to cover nearly 5,000 more — with 3,500 acres identified near the Poudre and 1,200 acres near the Big Thomspon. Those efforts aren’t cheap. Last year’s aerial mulching work cost $11 million. Keeping a helicopter in the air costs $87 each minute, but local utilities justify the expense as a precaution against even more costly treatment that would be necessary without it.

    Contractors will begin 2022’s aerial mulching campaign on Thursday, July 14, 2022 starting in the Pingree Park area. It will continue through the summer and fall.

    The South Platte River Basin is shaded in yellow. Source: Tom Cech, One World One Water Center, Metropolitan State University of Denver.

    July 2022 #LaNiña update: comic timing — NOAA

    Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website (Emily Becker):

    I’m in San Diego this week, gazing out across the Pacific toward La Niña’s cool tropical ocean surface. (I’m not here for Comic-Con, but there are a lot of posters around the city that keep that upcoming event in the forefront.) Just over my horizon, La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (“ENSO” for short)—remains in force, despite some warming in the sea surface temperature over the past month or so. Forecasters expect La Niña to continue through the summer and into the fall and early winter.

    Sea surface temperatures around the equator in the central and eastern Pacific were mostly cooler than average (blue) in June 2022. A few warm pockets (orange) dotted the far eastern Pacific. NOAA Climate.gov map from our Data Snapshots collection.

    Ka-Pow!

    Numbers-wise, there’s about a 60% chance of La Niña through the summer, ticking up a bit to the mid 60%s around 66% by October–December 2022. The second most likely outcome is ENSO-neutral conditions. El Niño is a distant third, with chances only in the low single digits through the early winter. This forecast isn’t much different from the past couple of months.

    The official CPC/IRI ENSO probability forecast. The bars show the seasonal chances for each possible ENSO state—El Niño (red), La Niña (blue), and neutral (gray)—from spring 2022 through winter 2022–23. The forecast is based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters, and it is updated during the first half of the month, in association with the official CPC/IRI ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. It is based on observational and predictive information from early in the month and from the previous month. Image from IRI.

    While we’re doing the numbers, let’s see how La Niña measured up last month. As I mentioned above, the cool sea surface temperature anomaly weakened a bit in June, but remained in La Niña territory. (Anomaly = difference from the long-term average, long-term being 1991–2020 here, and the La Niña threshold is -0.5 °Celsius, which is just shy of 1 degree Fahrenheit.) According to the ERSSTv5, our most consistent sea surface temperature dataset, June’s sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region was -0.8 °C. This is the 7th-strongest negative June anomaly in our 1950–present record.

    Three-year history of sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for 8 previous double-dip La Niña events. The color of the line shows the ENSO state in the third winter (red: El Niño, darker blue: La Niña, lighter blue: neutral). The black line shows the current event. Monthly Niño-3.4 index is from CPC using ERSSTv5. Time series comparison was created by Michelle L’Heureux, and modified by Climate.gov.

    This recent weakening in the Niño-3.4 anomaly—it was -1.1 °C in May—is partly due to a slight diminishment of the trade winds, the prevailing east-to-west winds near the Equator, in the first half of June. When the trade winds weaken, wind-driven evaporative cooling slows and the surface warms. Also, a fairly weak downwelling Kelvin wave, a region of warmer-than-average water under the surface, has been moving from west to east over the past few months , gradually rising toward the surface.

    The trade winds re-strengthened over the second half of June, and remain stronger than average as we go to press. This will likely help to cool the surface, and may contribute to an upwelling Kelvin wave, a region of cooler-than-average subsurface water that moves west to east. Along with being a sign that La Niña’s amped-up Walker circulation—the atmospheric response to La Niña’s cooler sea surface—is still present, the stronger trades are a source of confidence in the forecast for La Niña to continue through the summer.

    Sea surface temperatures the week of July 9, 2022, showing the warm-to-cool gradient in temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean from west to east. Temperatures in the West Pacific Warm Pool, around the Maritime Continent, are above 80 degrees Fahrenheit (yellow-orange), while a cooler tongue of water (blue) extends from the coast of South America to the central Pacific. The prevailing east-to-west trade winds near the equator create this temperature contrast by pushing warm water west and allowing deeper, cooler water to well up to the surface. NOAA Climate.gov image from our Data Snapshots collection.

    Zowie!

    That said, there may well be short-term fluctuations in the Niño-3.4-region sea surface temperature that flirt with the La Niña threshold. For example, the current weekly Niño-3.4 index is -0.5°C. (This uses a different sea surface temperature monitoring dataset, the OISST.) However, as Michelle detailed a few years ago, ENSO is a seasonal phenomenon, meaning we evaluate it using monthly and seasonal averages, not weekly. Most climate models are predicting that the three-month-average Niño-3.4 index will remain below -0.5°C, another source of confidence in the forecast.

    Thwack!

    As I mentioned above, the June sea surface temperature anomaly was the 7th-most negative June anomaly on record. Where does the atmospheric response rank? Let’s take a look at the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI), an index that measures the relative atmospheric surface pressure in the equatorial eastern Pacific versus that in the western Pacific.

    The Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index compares pressure anomalies across a broad region of the western tropical Pacific (5 degrees North and South latitude, 80–130 degrees West longitude) to pressure anomalies on the other side of the basin (5 degrees North and South latitude, 90–140 degrees East longitude). NOAA Climate.gov image by Fiona Martin.

    When this index is positive, it means the pressure is relatively higher in the east and lower in the west, indicating a stronger Walker circulation. June 2022 tied for third strongest on record (1950–present), which got me wondering about the relationship between the strength of the Walker circulation in the summer to the Niño-3.4 index in the following early winter.

    It turns out that the June EQSOI has a correlation of about 0.7 with the Niño-3.4 index in the following November–January period. This is a fairly strong correlation, but by no means does it guarantee any particular November-January outcome. The other tied-for-third June, 2013, was followed by an ENSO-neutral winter. Most other Junes in the range of the 2022 value were followed by La Niña winters, though.

    Each dot on this scatterplot shows the atmospheric ENSO conditions each June (horizontal axis) since 1950 versus the oceanic ENSO conditions the following November–January (vertical axis). When the June Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (ESOI) is negative, winter Oceanic Niño Index conditions are frequently in the El Niño range (red dots), sometimes neutral (gray dots), but rarely in the La Niña range (blue dots). When June ESOI is positive, the winter is usually in the La Niña range, sometimes in the neutral range, but rarely in the El Niño range. The June 2022 EQSOI—shown as an open circle on the horizontal axis—was the third-highest June SOI on record. Data from CPC, image by Climate.gov.

    Blammo!

    Given all these sources of confidence, why isn’t the probability of La Niña higher? First, while a majority of the climate models do predict continued La Niña, there is still a pretty wide range of potential outcomes. Also, as I mentioned above, the subsurface temperature in the eastern half of the tropical Pacific is a bit warmer than average. If this anomaly is large—much cooler than average, or much warmer—it has a stronger relationship with the eventual Niño-3.4 index. However, when it is pretty small, as it was in June 2022, the outcomes are more varied. Finally, as we’ve covered extensively, a triple-dip (three-peat!) La Niña is a pretty unusual occurrence.

    That’s all, folks! I’m going to go dip my toes in the Pacific.

    A case for retreat in the age of fire — The Conversation #ActOnClimate


    After the 2018 wildfire in Paradise, Calif., many fire-damaged homes were razed.
    Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

    Emily E. Schlickman, University of California, Davis; Brett Milligan, University of California, Davis, and Stephen M. Wheeler, University of California, Davis

    Wildfires in the American West are getting larger, more frequent and more severe. Although efforts are underway to create fire-adapted communities, it’s important to realize that we cannot simply design our way out of wildfire – some communities will need to begin planning a retreat.

    Paradise, California, is an example. For decades, this community has worked to reduce dry grasses, brush and forest overgrowth in the surrounding wildlands that could burn. It built firebreaks to prevent fires from spreading, and promoted defensible space around homes.

    But in 2018, these efforts were not enough. The Camp Fire started from wind-damaged power lines, swept up the ravine and destroyed over 18,800 structures. Eighty-five people died.

    Across the America West, thousands of communities like Paradise are at risk. Many, if not most, are in the wildland-urban interface, a zone between undeveloped land and urban areas where both wildfires and unchecked growth are common. From 1990 to 2010, new housing in the wildland-urban interface in the continental U.S. grew by 41%.

    Whether in the form of large, master-planned communities or incremental, house-by-house construction, developers have been placing new homes in danger zones.

    Map showing wildfire risk highest in the Western U.S. and southern Plains, particularly the mountains.
    First Street Foundation created a national wildfire model that assesses fire risk at the local level to help communities understand and prepare. The map reflects the probability wildfire will occur in an area in 2022.
    First Street Foundation Wildfire Model

    It has been nearly four years since the Camp Fire, but the population of Paradise is now less than 30% of what it once was. This makes Paradise one of the first documented cases of voluntary retreat in the face of wildfire risk. And while the notion of wildfire retreat is controversial, politically fraught and not yet endorsed by the general public, as experts in urban planning and environmental design, we believe the necessity for retreat will become increasingly unavoidable.

    But retreat isn’t only about wholesale moving. Here are four forms of retreat being used to keep people out of harm’s way.

    Limiting future development

    On one end of the wildfire retreat spectrum are development-limiting policies that create stricter standards for new construction. These might be employed in moderate-risk areas or communities disinclined to change.

    An example is San Diego’s steep hillside guidelines that restrict construction in areas with significant grade change, as wildfires burn faster uphill. In the guidelines, steep hillsides have a gradient of at least 25% and a vertical elevation of at least 50 feet. In most cases, new buildings cannot encroach into this zone and must be located at least 30 feet from the hillside.

    While development-limiting policies like this prevent new construction in some of the most hazardous conditions, they often cannot eliminate fire risk.

    Illustration of a home set back from a road on a steep hillside
    Development-limiting policies can include stricter construction standards. The illustration shows the difference between a home on a steep hillside that is hard to defend from fire and one farther from the slope.
    Emily Schlickman

    Halting new construction

    Further along the spectrum are construction-halting measures, which prevent new construction to manage growth in high-risk parts of the wildland-urban interface.

    These first two levels of action could both be implemented using basic urban planning tools, starting with county and city general plans and zoning, and subdivision ordinances. For example, Los Angeles County recently updated its general plan to limit new sprawl in wildfire hazard zones. Urban growth boundaries could also be adopted locally, as many suburban communities north of San Francisco have done, or could be mandated by states, as Oregon did in 1973.

    Two illustrations, one of a new subdivision, the other of a few homes.
    Halting construction and managing growth in high-risk parts of the wildland-urban interface is another retreat tool.
    Emily Schlickman

    To assist the process, states and the federal government could designate fire-risk areas, similar to Federal Emergency Management Agency flood maps. California already designates zones with three levels of fire risk: moderate, high and very high.

    They could also develop fire-prone landscape zoning acts, similar to legislation that has helped limit new development along coasts, on wetlands and along earthquake faults.

    Incentives for local governments to adopt these frameworks could be provided through planning and technical assistance grants or preference for infrastructure funding. At the same time, states or federal agencies could refuse funding for local authorities that enable development in severe-risk areas.

    In some cases, state officials might turn to the courts to stop county-approved projects to prevent loss of life and property and reduce the costs that taxpayers might pay to maintain and protect at-risk properties

    Threehigh-profile projects in California’s wildland-urban interface have been stopped in the courts because their environmental impact reports fail to adequately address the increased wildfire risk that the projects create. (Full disclosure: For a short time in 2018, one of us, Emily Schlickman, worked as a design consultant on one of these – an experience that inspired this article.)

    Incentives to encourage people to relocate

    In severe risk areas, the technique of “incentivized relocating” could be tested to help people move out of wildfire’s way through programs such as voluntary buyouts. Similar programs have been used after floods.

    Local governments would work with FEMA to offer eligible homeowners the pre-disaster value of their home in exchange for not rebuilding. To date, this type of federally backed buyout program has yet to be implemented for wildfire areas, but some vulnerable communities have developed their own.

    The city of Paradise created a buyout program funded with nonprofit grant money and donations. However, only 300 acres of patchworked parcels have been acquired, suggesting that stronger incentives and more funding may be required.

    Removing government-backed fire insurance plans or instituting variable fire insurance rates based on risk could also encourage people to avoid high-risk areas.

    Another potential tool is a “transferable development rights” framework. Under such a framework, developers wishing to build more intensively in lower-risk town centers could purchase development rights from landowners in rural areas where fire-prone land is to be preserved or returned to unbuilt status. The rural landowners are thus compensated for the lost use of their property. These frameworks have been used for growth management purposes in Montgomery County, Maryland, and in Massachusetts and Colorado.

    Two illustrations, one showing lots of homes. The other only a few, with old home sites evident.
    Incentivized relocating can be used in severe risk areas by subsidizing the movement of some people out of wildfire’s way. The illustrations show what before and after might look like.
    Emily Schlickman

    Moving entire communities, wholesale

    Vulnerable communities may want to relocate but don’t want to leave neighbors and friends. “Wholesale moving” involves managing the entire resettlement of a vulnerable community.

    While this technique has yet to be implemented for wildfire-prone areas, there is a long history of its use after catastrophic floods. One place it is currently being used is Isle de Jean Charles, Louisiana, which has lost 98% of its landmass since 1955 because of erosion and sea level rise. In 2016, the community received a federal grant to plan a retreat to higher ground, including the design of a new community center 40 miles north and upland of the island.

    This technique, though, has drawbacks – from the complicated logistics and support needed to move an entire community to the time frame needed to develop a resettlement plan to potentially overloading existing communities with those displaced.

    Two illustrations, the first with many houses in a community. The other with none.
    In extreme risk areas, wholesale moving could be an approach – managing the resettlement of an entire vulnerable community to a safer area.
    Emily Schlickman

    Even with ideal landscape management, wildfire risks to communities will continue to increase, and retreat from the wildland-urban interface will become increasingly necessary. The primary question is whether that retreat will be planned, safe and equitable, or delayed, forced and catastrophic.The Conversation

    Emily E. Schlickman, Assistant Professor of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Design, University of California, Davis; Brett Milligan, Associate Professor of Landscape Architecture and Environmental Design, University of California, Davis, and Stephen M. Wheeler, Professor of Urban Design, Planning, and Sustainability, University of California, Davis

    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

    The Evolution of Agriculture — @WaterEdCO

    Photo courtesy of Ben Wolcott, Wolcott Ranches

    Click the link to read the article on the Water Education website (Sensa Wolcott):

    My family has been raising cattle in the Southwest for almost 50 years, and last year we experienced a first – producers in our valley did not receive any supplemental irrigation water from the reservoir. Agricultural producers in the river valleys and winding canyons of the Southwest are feeling the impacts of climate change. Temperatures are rising, snowpack is decreasing, runoff is occurring earlier in the year, and it’s becoming drier. As climate change continues to impact the Southwest, understanding how these environmental changes impact us will help farmers and ranchers like myself adjust our land management practices to remain resilient to drought and climate change.

    Ecosystems Adapt & So Can We!

    Areas that receive low amounts of rainfall are especially susceptible to changes in the environment. The plants and animals that live in dry areas are specialized to this unique landscape, and as the world around them changes, they must adapt or face extinction. Fortunately, healthy ecosystems respond to change, and so can we. The key to responding is diversity. Biodiversity is what gives species the genetic advantage they need to adapt to changing environments. The environment is changing, and just as genetic diversity allows for change, farmers and ranchers can proactively use innovative, versatile strategies to respond and help their enterprises survive.

    Healthy Livestock Make Happy, Profitable Ranchers

    Ensuring livestock remain healthy is the top priority for those who raise animals. Managed grazing that supports healthy soils and robust forage is a must. Lack of water affects the nutritional content and digestibility of forage. This leads to animals – and ranchers – becoming stressed. Adjusting stocking rates and pasture rotation are a few strategies recommended by the USDA Southwest Climate Hub that can help support the health of your pastures, which in turn supports the health of your animals.

    Increased temperatures aren’t just uncomfortable; livestock consume more water when it is hot, making stock water especially important when water is scarce. Warmer temperatures also directly impact the health of our livestock, which in turn reduces profits. Providing access to pastures with trees or shade structures where livestock can get out of the sun is just as important as providing access to water.

    It’s No Surprise That Plants Need Water

    Photo courtesy of Sensa Wolcott

    When water is limited, our fields produce less hay, forage and produce, making it challenging to grow what we need to be successful. Changing temperature will affect which crops thrive in particular areas. The Colorado State University Extension office provides many helpful strategies for how we can tackle these challenges. Prepare to make adjustments to the specific plants that you cultivate. Try planting crop varieties that require less water to thrive and research how specific crops use water. Rotate crops in a way that better promotes growth and productivity during drought and incorporate strategies that slow down water and increase infiltration, such as installing contour swales in fields.

    Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will impact the harvest timing of hay and produce and increase the likelihood of weeds popping up. Be prepared for changes in when you typically harvest and focus on increasing biodiversity by planting a mixture of different types of plants in a hayfield or pasture. Variety provides resilience as well as defense against invasive species, which are less likely to move into healthy, drought-resilient pastures and hayfields.

    Healthy Watersheds Support Us All

    Wetland. Photo courtesy of Sensa Wolcott

    Water is critical to life in Colorado because it supports the biodiversity and health of the entire watershed, including the animals and plants so important to farmers and ranchers. Improving irrigation efficiency and upgrading diversion structures can help us adapt to rising temperatures that cause snow to melt and runoff earlier in the year. Early runoff means there is less water later in the season, when animals, plants, and irrigators all need water. Practicing irrigation strategies that encourage keeping rivers wet and implementing practices that increase groundwater storage support healthy waterways and support the needs of farmers and ranchers.

    Riparian area management techniques like those mentioned in this article from Agri-Food Canada can benefit producers and the ecosystem. Try fencing livestock out of parts of the riparian corridor to support healthy riparian ecosystems. Livestock can cause erosion and water quality concerns – but well-planned access points that provide livestock with access to crucial drinking water can support both a healthy herd and a thriving waterway.

    Farmers and ranchers want to see water in the river – the longer the better – which also supports the health and well-being of the aquatic ecosystem. Protecting our riparian areas is imperative; when our riparian corridors are healthy and thriving, so are we.

    We Have a Choice

    The future of agriculture is tied tightly to the future of our waters. Healthy ecosystems that have a variety of plants and animals are vital. Choosing innovative management strategies enables us to be good stewards of the natural world while also improving our farms and ranches so that we all can remain resilient in the face of drought and a changing climate.

    Sensa Wolcottt.

    Sensa Wolcott works as the Watershed Coordinator for the Mancos Conservation District. She is pursuing her Masters in Biology through Miami University’s Project Dragonfly, where her work focuses on community-based conservation and connecting people with the land through dialogue and collaboration. Sensa and her family live on their family owned and operated cattle ranch and enjoys hiking, camping, mountain biking, and photography.

    Mancos and the Mesa Verde area from the La Plata Mountains.

    Assessing the Global #Climate in June 2022 — NOAA

    Iceland. Photo credit: Jennifer Fulford/NOAA

    Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:

    Globally, June 2022 was the sixth-warmest June in the 143-year NOAA record. The year-to-date (January-June) global surface temperature was also the sixth warmest on record. According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a greater than 99% chance that 2022 will rank among the 10-warmest years on record but only an 11% chance that it will rank among the top five.

    This monthly summary, developed by scientists at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, business, academia and the public to support informed decision-making.

    Monthly Global Temperature

    The June global surface temperature was 1.57°F (0.87°C) above the 20th-century average of 59.9°F (15.5°C). This ranks as the sixth-warmest June in the 143-year record. June 2022 marked the 46th consecutive June and the 450th consecutive month with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average. The ten-warmest Junes on record have all occurred since 2010.

    The Northern Hemisphere land-only surface temperature for June was 2.81°F (1.56°C) above average, making it the second warmest on record after June 2021. Europe had its second-warmest June on record, largely due to an unusually early heatwave heat wave coming from North Africa. Spain and France recorded temperatures not typically seen until July or August, breaking many temperature records for the month. Asia also had its second-warmest June on record.

    Temperatures were above average throughout most of North America, Europe, and Asia and across parts of northern Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and western and northern Oceania. Parts of China, the Middle East, and northern Africa experienced record-warm temperatures for June. Sea surface temperatures were above average across much of the northern, western, and southwestern Pacific, as well as parts of the Atlantic and eastern Indian oceans.

    Temperatures were near- to cooler-than-average across parts of western and southern South America and in small areas of eastern Australia, western Russia, and southern Africa. Consistent with La Niña, sea surface temperatures were below average over much of the south-central, central, and eastern tropical Pacific. There were no areas with record-cold June temperatures in 2022.

    Sea Ice

    Globally,June 2022 saw the second-lowest June sea ice extent on record. Only June 2019 had a smaller sea ice extent.

    June 2022 Arctic (left) and Antarctic (right) sea ice extent. Courtesy of NSIDC and NOAA.

    Arctic sea ice extent in June averaged 4.19 million square miles, which is 347,000 square miles — roughly the size of Sweden, Norway, and Denmark combined — below the 1981-2010 average and the 10th-smallest June extent in the 44-year record. According to an analysis by theNational Snow and Ice Data Center(NSIDC), regional sea ice extent was below average in the Barents, Chukchi, East Siberian, and Kara seas and Hudson Bay, while conditions in Baffin Bay were near normal. The 10-smallest June Arctic sea ice extents have occurred since 2010.

    Antarctic sea ice extent for June was a record low at 4.68 million square miles, or about 471,000 square miles below average. Following a below-average Antarctic sea ice extent in May, sea ice growth in June was slower than average.

    Global Tropical Cyclones

    June 2022 produced five named storms across the globe, which is near-normal activity for June. Only one of those, Hurricane Blas, reached tropical cyclone strength (74 mph) in June, but two storms that formed in June later reached cyclone strength in July. The global cyclone activity for January through June remains near normal by most metrics.

    Although it was only a tropical storm for about 30 hours, Tropical Storm Alex was the Atlantic’s first named storm of the season. The East Pacific had two named storms in June, which is near-average activity. The West Pacific, which has below-average year-to-date activity, only had one named storm this month.

    #Drought news (July 14, 2022): Exceptional drought was removed in southeast #Colorado and extreme drought was reduced this week…Severe drought was improved in southwest Colorado

    Click on a thumbnail graphic below to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

    Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

    This Week’s Drought Summary

    An active weather pattern over much of the Midwest and Southeast brought with it ample rain over many areas, with some places recording more than 5 inches for the week. Dry conditions were noted in the Northeast, West, and southern Plains where flash drought conditions were impacting vast portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and into the lower Mississippi River valley. Monsoonal moisture continued to be spotty over much of Arizona and New Mexico, reaching into portions of west Texas as well as southern Colorado and Utah. Temperatures were near normal to slightly above over most of the U.S., with cooler-than-normal temperatures over portions of the West, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic and above-normal temperatures over most of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern Missouri…

    High Plains

    Most of the region had warmer-than-normal temperatures for the week, with most areas 1-3 degrees above normal. Heavy rains through western North Dakota, central and eastern South Dakota, northwest and central Nebraska, and northeastern Kansas helped with some dryness in the areas. The scattered nature of the rains left many dry, though, as summer thunderstorms were hit or miss in the region. Some improvements were made in Nebraska and central Kansas as well as on the plains of Colorado and Wyoming this week where the short-term wetness helped to alleviate concerns. Degradation took place over central Wyoming, southern South Dakota and western Kansas where longer-term dryness has been in place and most of these areas have missed out on earlier precipitation events. Exceptional drought was removed in southeast Colorado and extreme drought was reduced this week. Southeast Kansas is an area where abnormally dry and moderate drought expanded this week, as they are on the northern fringe of a flash drought that has been developing over the last 4-5 weeks…

    Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending July 12, 2022.

    West

    Cooler-than-normal temperatures prevailed from the Pacific Northwest into much of California and western Nevada, where temperatures were 1-3 degrees below normal. Much of the rest of the region was normal to slightly above normal for the week. Above-normal rains fell in portions of Oregon and Washington as well as in Montana. Monsoonal moisture continues in New Mexico and Arizona, but it is widely scattered in nature compared to earlier in June. The rains did allow for some improvement in areas of New Mexico, where extreme and severe drought were reduced, and western Arizona, where severe drought was reduced. Severe drought was improved in southwest Colorado and much of the drought area of Montana had a full-category improvement. Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions were adjusted in Washington to show a mix of improvements and some expansion of moderate drought. Extreme and exceptional drought was expanded over central Nevada and exceptional drought was expanded to include more of the San Joaquin Valley in California…

    South

    The region was mainly dry outside of some monsoonal moisture that made it into portions of West Texas and the panhandle. Portions of southwest Mississippi into southern Louisiana also benefited from above-normal precipitation this week. Some of the warmest temperatures in the country were observed in the region this week with many places having multiple days of triple-digit heat. Temperatures were 5-10 degrees above normal over much of the region as flash drought has developed. With the rapidly developing situation, without relief from the heat or precipitation, drought will continue to intensify rapidly. There were many changes to the drought intensity of the region this week, with only areas of west Texas and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma showing any improvements. Almost all of eastern Oklahoma, northern Texas, and Arkansas had a full-category degradation this week. Further degradation took place over central and southern Texas as well as portions of northern and western Louisiana. Coleman County, Texas had its driest January-to-June period on record going back to 1895. Other counties that had the driest first six months of the year were Bosque, Hamilton, Coryell, Wilson, Karnes, and Bee counties in Texas and Calcasieu Parish in Louisiana. There has been an uptick in the number of cattle sales taking place as water and feed demands are being impacted by the drought…

    Looking Ahead

    Over the next 5-7 days, it is anticipated that the monsoonal moisture will continue to bring rains throughout the Four Corners region. Active weather over the Midwest, Gulf Coast and Southeast will again bring widespread precipitation. Precipitation in the central Plains and northern Rocky Mountains will be minimal and dry conditions will continue to dominate the West as well as much of the southern Plains. Temperatures during this period will be well above normal over the western half of the U.S. with temperatures 6-9 degrees above normal while cooler-than-normal temperatures will be common over the eastern half with departures of 1-3 degrees below normal.

    The 6-10 day outlooks show that the vast majority of the country has above-normal chances of recording temperatures that will be warmer than normal. The greatest probability of above-normal temperatures will be over the central to southern Plains. Alaska has above-normal chances of having cooler-than-normal temperatures during this time. The best chance of above-normal precipitation is over the Southwest and Southeast while much of the rest of the country will likely have below-normal precipitation, with the greatest chances in the Pacific Northwest and southern Plains.

    US Drought Monitor one week change map ending July 12, 2022.