Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Much of the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), south of the Great Lakes, received little to no rainfall, and this is on top of several weeks of below normal rainfall leading up to last week. In addition, temperatures have remained hot for many locations. This combination of antecedent dryness, much below normal rainfall, and hot temperatures has resulted in rapidly deteriorating conditions, particularly across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast, with large increases in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions. Conversely, southern Texas, the Four Corners region, and the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains experienced several rounds of heavy rainfall. Some locations across southern Texas (associated with Tropical Storm Alberto) and the north-central CONUS received well in excess of 5 inches of rainfall that led to flash and river flooding, as well as improvements to drought conditions. Some localized flooding also occurred in portions of the Four Corners region, associated with a surge of tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto that came ashore in northern Mexico late last week. Across much of the western CONUS, conditions are starting to dry out a bit, particularly in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. In Alaska, moderate drought was introduced in the eastern interior Mainland, where warm and dry weather continues, elevating fire concerns. In Hawaii, trade winds are lacking moisture resulting in below normal rainfall across the islands and the widespread expansion of abnormal dryness. Puerto Rico continues to remain drought-free…

High Plains

The High Plains region experienced a mixture of both deteriorating and improving drought conditions last week, which has predominantly been the case over at least the last month. High pressure over the eastern U.S. and an active storm track across the northern tier of the lower 48 states have been able to funnel moisture northward over the past few weeks, but precipitation has been hit-and-miss from week to week. However, last week was a little different from prior weeks, as some of the moisture from Tropical Storm Alberto was funneled northward into the Four Corners region and then into the Central and Northern Plains. Southeastern South Dakota received in excess of 5 inch rainfall surpluses for the week leading to flooding along the Missouri River and some of its tributaries. Heavy rain also fell across parts of southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas last week, associated with the surge of moisture from Alberto, leading to some targeted improvements to the drought depiction in those areas as well. Elsewhere in the High Plains region, targeted degradations are warranted due to antecedent dryness, below normal weekly precipitation, and predominantly above normal temperatures (with the exception of northern Montana and the Dakotas)…

West

A surge of moisture from Tropical Storm Alberto led to widespread, localized heavy rainfall across portions of the Four Corners region, leading to localized flash flooding and targeted drought improvements across Arizona, New Mexico, and southeastern Colorado. Conversely, targeted degradations are warranted across parts of the interior Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, where warm and dry weather prevailed. Elsewhere in the West, conditions are largely drying out, but the influx of tropical moisture from Alberto has helped to stall the progression of the dryness a bit for many locations…

South

The passage of Tropical Storm Alberto in northern Mexico resulted in a large influx of moisture into southern Texas, with widespread 5 inch rainfall totals (locally upwards of 8 inches for some locations). This heavy rainfall caused localized flash flooding and resulted in large improvements to soil moisture. However, leading up to last week, southern Texas was experiencing abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions, so despite some large improvements (2-category improvements in some cases), some parts of southern Texas remain abnormally dry given the rainfall deficits leading up to Alberto’s landfall. Heavy rainfall also fell across portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle, with several locations receiving in excess of 5 inches of rain, warranting some targeted 2-category improvements to the drought depiction there as well. Elsewhere in the Southern region, conditions are rapidly deteriorating, as rainfall has been lacking entirely over the past few weeks for many locations. Persistent heat has exacerbated the ongoing dryness, leading to degradations across parts of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys, western Texas, and northern Oklahoma. Following a very wet May, the last few weeks have been very dry across eastern Texas and this area will need to be monitored in the coming weeks if warmer than normal temperatures persist…

Looking Ahead

During the next five days (June 27 – July 1), a couple of storm systems and trailing frontal boundaries are forecast to bring periods of rainfall to portions of the eastern U.S. These storm systems are likely to usher in some cooler than normal air behind them, particularly across the northern tier of the lower 48 states. Temperatures are expected to remain predominantly warmer than normal across the southern tier of the U.S., with excessive heat also possible across the Gulf Coast states.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day outlook (valid July 2 – 6), favors enhanced chances of above average temperatures across the southern two-thirds of the lower 48 states and near to below normal chances across the northern tier states. Near to below normal temperatures are also favored in the Desert Southwest, due to the increased potential for above normal precipitation. Below normal precipitation is favored across parts of California and Nevada, and across the southeastern U.S. Increased above normal precipitation chances are favored elsewhere across the lower 48 states, with the highest chances across portions of the Southwest and Midwest.

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Shannon Mullane):

June 27, 2024

Colorado has seen an average water year so far, but looking ahead, climate experts say much of the state could fall into drought conditions and struggle to find relief. 

Colorado’s very average snowpack has officially melted away from all 115 federal snow monitoring stations in the state, as of this week. Reservoir levels are at 94%, just slightly below average, while precipitation was at exactly 100% of the 30-year median, according to a Water Conditions Monitoring Committee meeting Tuesday.

Heat, however, has been on the rise. Even summer showers may not be enough to combat its effects, or to keep the state away from drought.

“Really the entire state is at risk of developing drought this summer,” Assistant State Climatologist Becky Bolinger told listeners during the meeting. “A strong monsoon would be really helpful. It would limit that risk of worsening drought, particularly over the Four Corners. … For now, it’s looking like that is not as likely, and that it’s going to be a pretty rough summer.”

Climate experts track precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and other factors year-round to gauge water supplies and storage for farmers, city utility managers, reservoir operators and residents around the state.

This year’s outlook has some of those water users looking out for impacts to fish populations, recreation opportunities, irrigation supplies and wildfires. 

“Without much rain, wildfire will definitely be a pretty serious concern,” said Adrian Bergere, executive director of the San Miguel Watershed Coalition in southwestern Colorado.

The period from October 2023 through May ranked in the top 10 warmest time periods across a significant majority of the state when compared with a 129-year historical record, Bolinger said. 

Areas of southeastern Colorado, like Lamar and La Junta, have already reported 20 or more days over 90 degrees. The Front Range has already had 10-15 days over 90 degrees. Most of the country is also likely to be hotter than usual for the rest of the summer, she said.

That’s quite the switch after last year, which started out with cooler-than-average months, Bolinger said.

The hotter temperatures are likely to continue for the rest of the summer. Western Colorado and the Four Corners area have a 70%-80% chance of above-average temperatures — a very high degree of confidence, Bolinger said.

Colorado’s stream and river levels are receding after a normal runoff year, and incoming precipitation will be increasingly helpful for water users in the late summer and early fall. Although the state has seen average precipitation so far, there’s a 40%-50% chance rainfall will tumble below normal levels for July through September. 

Some areas, like Fort Collins and Burlington, have seen less-than-average rainfall so far. Even with some rain in the near-term forecast for early July, it will be hard for these areas to end the water year, which closes Sept. 30, at the average level, Bolinger said.

The combination of hot and dry weather could make it harder for areas of the state that are already experiencing drought conditions to recover, and it could mean that more areas fall into drought, she said. 

About 16% of the state is experiencing drought conditions. That is vastly better than in late 2020 and early 2021, when the entire state was in drought and over 20% was in the most severe drought category. At that level, agricultural and recreational economic losses are large, reservoirs are low, large fires can develop and mandatory water restrictions are often implemented, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

“There is a slightly increased risk for drier extremes in the southern part of the state, which really means there would be a low likelihood that any drought that worsens or develops in the summer is not going to see relief through the fall,” Bolinger said. 

In the Upper Rio Grande River Basin, aquatic biologist Estevan Vigil is keeping an eye on the water temperatures and water levels on the Rio Grande and Conejos rivers for Colorado Parks and Wildlife.

Brown trout and rainbow trout flourish when water is about 50 degrees but struggle when it rises above 70 degrees. At that level, their immune systems become stressed, and catch-and-release fishing can lead to higher fish mortality.

If stream levels fall below 50% of the norm, and if temperatures rise above 70 degrees, Vigil may implement voluntary or emergency fishing closures.

“In the [San Luis Valley] since 2019, we’ve probably done it twice,” Vigil said. “I’m anticipating having to do it this year.”

A strong monsoon season would help keep rivers flowing and fishing access open, he said.

Several city water managers said their reservoir storage supplies were looking good during the water conditions meeting. Colorado Springs Utilities reservoirs were at 85% of their capacity, and Denver Water’s reservoirs were 97% full.

The lack of monsoons would heighten concerns over wildfire risk or lead to a shorter rafting season for boaters, Bergere said. Less-than-average rainfall could also leave sections of the river dry as water gets pulled for other uses, like irrigation and municipal supplies.

Water users in the San Miguel River Basin know how to endure fluctuating supplies, Bergere said.

“What we’re looking at there is not amazing, but it’s something we’re pretty used to down here,” he said. “Without much rain, wildfire will definitely be a pretty serious concern.”