Experts urge caution in taking #ColoradoRiver negotiations to U.S. Supreme Court — The Las Vegas Review-Journal #COriver #aridification #CRWUA2024

Map credit: AGU

Click the link to read the article on the Las Vegas Review-Journal website (Alan Halaly). Here’s an excerpt:

December 5, 2024

Most who work on the Colorado River concur: A courtroom is the last place decisions about water should be made. But as total agreement between the Upper and Lower Basin seems more like a pipe dream with each passing month, a court battle has become a possibility while U.S. states, Native American tribes and Mexico chart a path forward as operating guidelines for the river expire in 2026. It would be an expensive, decadeslong legal fight against the Bureau of Reclamation’s decision that would likely make its way to the Supreme Court. At the annual Colorado River Water Users Association conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday, a panel of legal experts who have worked on interstate water cases spoke about the challenges such a case might bring. The bottom line: Engineers are far better equipped to solve water issues than judges, and all efforts should be made to keep post-2026 Colorado River negotiations out of the courtroom.

“The court has a limited understanding of technical water cases,” said Jeff Kightlinger, ex-general manager of the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California. “It has a very limited ability to draft nuanced, long-term solutions.”

[…]

“New plot using the nClimGrid data, which is a better source than PRISM for long-term trends. Of course, the combined reservoir contents increase from last year, but the increase is less than 2011 and looks puny compared to the ‘hole’ in the reservoirs. The blue Loess lines subtly change. Last year those lines ended pointing downwards. This year they end flat-ish. 2023 temps were still above the 20th century average, although close. Another interesting aspect is that the 20C Mean and 21C Mean lines on the individual plots really don’t change much. Finally, the 2023 Natural Flows are almost exactly equal to 2019. (17.678 maf vs 17.672 maf). For all the hoopla about how this was record-setting year, the fact is that this year was significantly less than 2011 (20.159 maf) and no different than 2019” — Brad Udall

The breakdown of talks between the Upper and Lower Basin states has centered on whether the Upper Basin states should be required to take cuts to their allocations from the river as climate change reduces water availability…Arizona’s [Tom Buschatzke], however, has publicly signaled that the state is eyeing $1 million in state funds to retain a lawyer if it becomes necessary. But that doesn’t mean leaders are satisfied with that option.

“I do not want litigation. There is uncertainty with litigation,” Arizona Department of Water Resources Director Tom Buschatzke said at a meeting earlier this year. “We see that in other basins, with judges running rivers. It’s not good for anybody.”

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