#ColoradoRiver basin states offer divergent plans to govern operations after 2026 — #Colorado Politics — #COriver #aridification

“New plot using the nClimGrid data, which is a better source than PRISM for long-term trends. Of course, the combined reservoir contents increase from last year, but the increase is less than 2011 and looks puny compared to the ‘hole’ in the reservoirs. The blue Loess lines subtly change. Last year those lines ended pointing downwards. This year they end flat-ish. 2023 temps were still above the 20th century average, although close. Another interesting aspect is that the 20C Mean and 21C Mean lines on the individual plots really don’t change much. Finally, the 2023 Natural Flows are almost exactly equal to 2019. (17.678 maf vs 17.672 maf). For all the hoopla about how this was record-setting year, the fact is that this year was significantly less than 2011 (20.159 maf) and no different than 2019” — Brad Udall

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Politics website (Marianne Goodland). Here’s an excerpt:

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation set a deadline of Monday for the seven states to come up with plans, but a hoped-for joint plan was not in the cards. By the end of 2024, the Bureau of Reclamation anticipates having what’s called a draft “environmental impact statement” that will present alternatives for how the Colorado River will operate in the decades to come. Those new guidelines will also determine the management and facilities of the two reservoirs, as well the Hoover and Glen Canyon dams…

Upper Basin plan

The plan submitted by the Upper Basin states calls for the following:

• A commitment from the Upper Basin states to help preserve the ability to make releases from Lake Powell, the nation’s second-largest reservoir that provides power through the Glen Canyon dam

• For Lake Powell: Modeled releases from Lake Powell that are based on hydrologic conditions and designed to rebuild storage to protect Lake Powell’s ability to make releases consistent with the Law of the River, as dictated by the 1922 Colorado River compact

• Lake Mead: Modeled Lower Basin operations adapted from a concept first provided by the Lower Basin States based on the combined storage of Lake Powell and Lake Mead…

The Lower Basin plan

Tom Buschatzke, the director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources and the state’s principal negotiator on matters relating to the Colorado River, said while he has not yet fully examined the upper division states’ alternative plan, he told Colorado Politics he is disappointed by what he’s seen so far.

• Addresses the structural deficit in the Lower Basin

• Operates the reservoirs based on system contents, rather than elevations at Lake Powell and Lake Mead

• Shared water use reductions broadly

• Creates provisions for the storage and delivery of stored water

• Releases from Lake Powell that are adaptable to a broad range of hydrology and “hydrologic shortages”

The alternative dictates cuts calculated by state — every state, not just those in the Lower Basin — depending on how much the levels drop at Lake Mead.

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