Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

This week, a powerful storm system crossed from the Great Plains into the Great Lakes, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorms to parts of the Midwest, and a historic blizzard to portions of the Upper Midwest, especially in northern Wisconsin and Michigan near Lake Superior. Total precipitation amounts exceeded 2 inches in a large area of the western Great Lakes, while lighter amounts, mostly 0.5-3 inches of precipitation, fell across parts of the southern and eastern Contiguous U.S. Improvements to ongoing drought and dryness occurred across large portions of the Midwest, parts of the lower Mississippi River Valley, and in the Northeast outside of northern New England. Heavy rain and, in some areas, mountain snow, fell across parts of the Northwest, locally improving drought conditions. However, significant deficits in snow still exist in many parts of the West, including the Pacific Northwest, which limited the longer-term benefits of the precipitation that fell. Much of the Southwest, and the central and southern Great Plains, missed out on precipitation, and instead dealt with a dry, warm and windy week. Precipitation deficits, and lack of snowpack in the mountains, continued to worsen amid high evaporative demand, leading to widespread worsening of abnormal dryness and drought, especially in South Dakota and Nebraska, southwest Kansas, southern Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and parts of Oregon that missed out on precipitation. A kona low delivered heavy precipitation to all of Hawaii this week, leading to widespread 1- and local 2-category improvements to ongoing drought conditions from Molokai eastward…

High Plains

In the southern half of the High Plains region, warmer-than-normal weather continued this week amid mainly dry and frequently windy conditions. Degradation in drought conditions was widespread across Nebraska and southern parts of South Dakota. A deadly wildfire in western Nebraska, the Morrill Fire, has burned a record amount of land for Nebraska wildfires. This fire, and others across Nebraska, occurred amid weather conditions favorable for fire growth and a background of worsening drought conditions. The Great Plains of southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado also saw worsening drought and abnormal dryness this week, as precipitation deficits continued to mount along with warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter and early spring. Large precipitation deficits and above-normal evaporative demand over the last several months led to extreme drought development in parts of the Black Hills in southwest South Dakota. Colder temperatures and some precipitation kept conditions unchanged (and mostly free of drought or abnormal dryness) in North Dakota and northern South Dakota…

West

Current drought conditions in the West continued to be headlined by snow drought this week. The Sangre de Cristo Mountains and portions of the San Juan Mountains in southern Colorado and northern New Mexico saw widespread worsening conditions this week. Overall dry and warm conditions worsened both precipitation deficits and snowpack conditions in these areas. Some snow-water monitoring sites in the region have seen near-full or full melting of snowpack. Degradations to ongoing drought and dryness were also widespread in Arizona this week, where warmer-than-normal temperatures combined with dry weather to worsen short-term precipitation deficits, increase evaporative demand and support low streamflow levels. High-elevation parts of Arizona that usually have snow on the ground in mid-March are also suffering from snow drought. This combination of drier- and warmer-than-normal weather and snow drought may set the state for drought conditions to worsen in the coming weeks if weather conditions remain warm and dry. Warmer-than-normal and dry weather occurred this week in Nevada, worsening conditions in some areas, especially in the north, where impacts are being reported as a result of unusually warm and dry weather over the last several months and meagre mountain snow. Due to locally heavy precipitation or lack thereof, a mix of small-scale improvements and degradations occurred in Oregon. Amid the snow drought, localized degradations occurred in southwest Idaho, while heavier mountain snows improved snowpack in some mountain ranges in parts of western Montana, leading to localized improvements. The effectiveness of this locally renewed snowpack in improving soil moisture will be analyzed further in the weeks ahead…

South

This week, parts of east Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee benefitted from localized rains of at least 2 inches. Elsewhere, deep south Texas, western Texas, and northern and western Oklahoma were mostly dry this week. Temperatures across the region were warmer than normal, with readings varying widely from a degree or two above normal to 9-12 degrees above normal. Soil moisture levels improved and precipitation shortfalls lessened in parts of east-central Texas, Louisiana and southeast Arkansas, leading to localized improvements to drought conditions in these areas. Despite heavier rains, a small area of extreme drought shifted northeast in southeast Tennessee due to very large precipitation deficits that continued this week. Growing short-term precipitation deficits led to the development of severe drought in a small area of northwest Tennessee. Heavy rain in Dallas improved local conditions. Warm, dry and windy conditions were the rule elsewhere in the southern Great Plains and deep south Texas, leading to localized degradations in central and northern Texas, deep south Texas, south-central and northwest Oklahoma, and the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles…

Looking Ahead

Through the evening of Monday, March 23, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center’s forecast depicts mostly dry weather across a large swath of the Contiguous U.S. Precipitation totaling 0.5-1 inch may fall from West Virginia into New York, and in spots in New England. Similar precipitation amounts are forecast in parts of northwest Montana and the Idaho Panhandle. Western Washington is forecast to receive widespread precipitation amounts of at least 1 inch, with some favored mountainous areas forecast to receive 2.5-5 inches of precipitation (or locally more). Elsewhere, the forecast calls for precipitation amounts to remain at or below 0.5 inches, with most of the Great Plains, Mississippi and Lower Ohio River Valleys, and the Gulf Coast states likely to remain completely dry.

Looking ahead from March 24-28, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecast strongly favors warmer-than-normal temperatures in most of the West, especially in the Southwest, and across much of the Great Plains and South. Near- or below-normal temperatures are favored from northern North Dakota eastward through the Great Lakes into much of the Northeast. Above-normal precipitation is favored in Washington, northern Oregon, the Idaho Panhandle and northwest Montana, and from northern Michigan eastward across the northern half of the Northeast. Wetter-than-normal weather is also forecast in central and southern Florida. Elsewhere in the contiguous United States, below-normal precipitation is more likely, especially from the Great Plains to Utah, Nevada, the Desert Southwest and California.

Click the link to read the article on the Water Education Colorado website (Shannon Mullane):

March 12, 2026

An otherwise dismal snow year in Colorado has one clear upside: At least the snow that has fallen on the state isn’t dusty.

Each year, storms pick up dust from across the Southwest and drop it on Colorado’s mountain snowpack, where it can hasten melting. Earlier snowmelt has ripple effects on water supplies, forecasts, irrigators and ecosystems. But this year, the snow is white and clean all the way through, at least at the test locations observed by Jeff Derry’s team at the Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies.

What gives? Derry chuckled. It’s storms that bring dust — and snow, he said.

“We haven’t had the dust because we haven’t had the storms,” Derry said. “They kind of come hand in hand.”

Since mid-January, Colorado has experienced its lowest snowpack since 1987. The winter storms that have dumped snow on the mountains have been quickly followed by warm temperatures, leaving a relatively shallow layer of snow at higher elevations. The snowpack is scarce, if present at all, at lower elevations.

Derry, executive director of the center’s Dust-on-Snow Program, spent early March traveling around the state, digging pits in the snow, and looking for rusty, brownish layers of dust.

The program’s snow monitoring sites are close to other data collection sites that are part of the federal snow telemetry, or SNOTEL, network. These stations, basically sheds outfitted with antennae and an array of scientific instruments, help track precipitation, temperature and other climate information across the West.

“This tour so far, after doing three sites, has been easy on my back,” he said. “SNOTEL stations aren’t lying. It’s a skimpy snowpack.”

The dust that typically mars Colorado’s snowpack is dropped by winter storms, which carry it from arid regions in Arizona, New Mexico and Utah. Some of that dust was loosened by human actions, like overgrazing and developing land.

Dark dust layers on the snow’s surface absorb more solar radiation, which causes the snow to melt faster and earlier in the season. When that happens, it changes how plants use water. They send more moisture into the air, which reduces the amount of water entering streams and rivers, according to researchers.

In some years since 2003, these dust events, as scientists call them, have blown over Colorado as early as October or November. Scientists observed 12 dust events in 2009 and in 2012, the most per year since 2003

But what Derry saw on his tour this year — from Rabbit Ears Pass near Steamboat Springs to Red Mountain Pass in southwestern Colorado — was a layer of white, even after a storm Friday cast a new layer of snow over much of Colorado.

Derry hoped the recent storm will help keep the snowpack from melting too early. Or, this year could offer something new, he said: A dust-free, albeit “skimpy,” snowpack.

But after 20 years of tracking dust-on-snow events, researchers have found that there are no seasons without dust. Derry will be watching out in March, April and May when about 80% of dust events typically happen, he said.

“Even though things might be looking good now. It just takes one nasty storm to change everything. With the shallow snowpack, we’ll see early melt anyway,” he said. “Add some dust and it could make it even worse.”

An early spring melt

Derry’s team started checking their snow monitoring sites seven to 10 days earlier than usual. They’re expecting an early spring melt, Derry said.

Colorado’s statewide snowpack typically reaches its peak around April 8, although the peaks typically occur earlier or later, depending on the watershed.

The melt starts soon after. Reservoirs help pace the flow of water as it rushes out of the mountains, storing water that becomes vital to farmers and ranchers later in the summer.

Dust can accelerate that melt by two to four weeks or 50 days in more extreme years. (Scientists are still trying to understand what factors cause extreme years and whether dust events can be better predicted.)

So can warmer temperatures, like the exceptional heat wave in the forecast for Colorado starting March 16. Some areas are pushing 20 degrees above normal this week and next week, according to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.

“This heatwave may be the final nail in the coffin for any hope of snowpack recovery this season in Colorado’s Rockies and elsewhere across the West,” Bouldercast Weather, a team of Denver and Boulder weather experts, said on social media Monday.

A weekend storm could bring up to 6 inches of snow to the northern Rockies in Colorado, said David Byers, a meteorologist for the weather service in Grand Junction.

The water that runs out of Colorado’s mountains serves communities in 19 states before it eventually reaches the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean.

Not much snow translates into very little water, Derry said. That could affect fire season, forest health and water resources for everyone in all the basins that Colorado serves.

When there are too many low-snow years in a row, reservoirs can struggle to keep up their water storage. Between 2020 and 2025, Colorado has had three below-average winters, two average winters and one above-average winter, according to federal data from SNOTEL stations.

Colorado is heading into this year’s spring runoff with about 87% of its usual reservoir storage, according to federal data.

“It’s great not to see any dust of course,” Derry said. “But it’s pretty scary to see the skimpy snowpack around the state.”

More by Shannon Mullane

Click the link to read the briefing on the Western Water Assessment website:

March 12, 2025 – CO, UT, WY

Much of the region experienced its warmest February on record, and Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming ended the season with the warmest December-February on record. As temperatures were much above average throughout the region, precipitation was below to much below average for much of the region, with record-dry conditions along the Front Range, as well as pockets in southeastern Colorado and southern Wyoming. As of March 1, snow drought continues to persist as below to much below normal snow-water equivalent (SWE) was observed for Colorado, Utah, and eastern Wyoming. Seasonal streamflow volume forecasts for regional river basins are below to much below average, except in northern Wyoming where there are near to above average forecasts. Regional drought coverage increased to 76% by early March. The NOAA Seasonal Outlooks for March-May suggest below average precipitation and above average temperatures. 

Regional precipitation was below to much below average in February, particularly in northeastern Colorado, with a large pocket of less than 2% of average conditions in Denver, Arapahoe, Adams, Washington, and Weld Counties. Another large pocket of less than 2% of average conditions occurred in southeastern Colorado in Baca County. In contrast, scattered pockets of above average precipitation occurred in each state, with two large pockets of 150-200% of average precipitation in southeastern Colorado and western Wyoming. One small pocket of 200-400% of average precipitation occurred in southeastern Colorado in Kiowa and Bent Counties, and a pocket of 400-800% of average precipitation occurred in western Wyoming in Fremont County. Record-dry February precipitation occurred in many counties along the Front Range in Colorado, including Denver, Boulder, Larimer, Jefferson, Douglas, Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, El Paso, Weld, and Park Counties, as well as Baca County in southeastern Colorado. Record-dry conditions also occurred in Carbon and Albany Counties in southern Wyoming, and Tooele County in western Utah.

Regional temperatures were much above average to record-warm in February. Large swaths of 9 to 12°F above average temperatures occurred in each state, particularly in Wyoming and Colorado, and a large pocket of 12-15°F above average temperatures occurred in southwestern Wyoming. Colorado and Wyoming experienced the warmest February on record, and Utah experienced the third warmest February on record. All three states experienced the warmest meteorological winter (December-February) on record. These records are ranked by NOAA NCEI from 1895-2026.

Below to much below normal snow-water equivalent (SWE) continues in Colorado, Utah, and eastern Wyoming as of March 1. River basins with 50% or less of normal SWE include the Upper Arkansas (45%) in Colorado, and the Lower Colorado-Lake Mead (50%), Upper Colorado-Dirty Devil (47%), Escalante Desert-Sevier Lake (46%), and Lower San Juan (23%) in Utah. In contrast, western Wyoming river basins have near normal SWE, including the Snake Headwaters (96%), Upper Yellowstone (95%), Big Horn (94%), and the Upper Green (91%). Due to record-warm temperatures and below average precipitation for most of the region this winter, snow drought continues to persist.

Seasonal streamflow volume forecasts for river basins in Colorado, Utah, and southeastern Wyoming are below to much below average. Near to above average seasonal streamflow volumes are forecasted for northern Wyoming. In Colorado, seasonal streamflow forecasts suggest 45-60% of average runoff for all major river basins. Runoff in most major Utah river basins is forecasted at 35-55% of average, except for the Bear River Basin (72%). Wyoming has a mix of streamflow forecasts, with below average forecasts in the Little Snake (46%), North Platte (52%), Cheyenne (57%), Upper Green (64%), and Laramie (69%) River Basins, near average forecasts in the Tongue (93%), Wind (93%), Powder (95%), and Yellowstone (108%) River Basins, and above average forecasts in the Shoshone (113%) and Big Horn (123%) River Basins. Below average inflow is forecasted for many regional reservoirs, including Lake Powell (36%), Navajo (44%), McPhee (47%), Blue Mesa (50%), Guernsey (52%), Deer Creek (53%), Scofield (56%), Deerfield (57%), and Flaming Gorge (64%) Reservoirs.

Dry and warm conditions during February caused regional drought coverage to increase to 76% by March 3 (drought covered 63% of the region on February 3). Drought conditions especially deteriorated in Wyoming, where moderate (D1) drought coverage increased by 33%, severe (D2) drought coverage increased by 14%, and extreme (D3) drought emerged in southwestern and southeastern Wyoming. In Colorado, D2 drought coverage increased by 11%, and D3 drought coverage increased by 3%, emerging in the Denver Metro region and northwestern Colorado. Utah drought coverage remained the same, with an emergence of D3 drought in northeastern Utah.

As of mid-February, La Niña conditions are declining and there is a 90% probability of transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May. The NOAA March Precipitation Outlook suggests equal chances while the March Temperature Outlook suggests an increased probability of above average temperatures throughout the region. The NOAA Seasonal Precipitation Outlook for March-May suggests an increased probability of below average precipitation in Colorado, Utah, and southern Wyoming, and particularly in the Four Corners region. The NOAA Seasonal Temperature Outlook for March-May suggests an increased probability of above average temperatures in Colorado, Utah, and southern and western Wyoming, and particularly in southern Utah and southwestern Colorado.

Significant weather event: Extremely warm and dry winter for the Front Range. Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming experienced the warmest meteorological winter (December-February) on record, and Colorado and Wyoming experienced the warmest February on record. Colorado’s statewide average temperature for December-February was 33.6°F, surpassing the previous record of 32.0°F during the 1980-1981 winter season. Colorado’s Front Range had a particularly warm and dry February, causing extreme (D3) drought to emerge in the Denver Metro region. Denver, Adams, and Arapahoe Counties experienced their driest February on record. Denver experienced its second warmest winter on record, with an average temperature of 39.6°F, just short of the 40.1°F record from the 1933-1934 winter season. For context, the average winter temperature for Denver is 31.9°F, which this winter season significantly exceeds. Denver also experienced its driest winter, with only 13.4 inches of snow recorded by the end of February, well below the average of about 35 inches of snow for December-February. These warm and dry conditions were due to many factors, but the persistent high-pressure ridge that stayed over the western U.S. coupled with La Niña conditions was particularly notable in keeping moisture and cold temperatures out of the region.

Note that the NRCS graphs have not updated since Saturday, March 14, 2026 and that many of the graphs are showing an early melt-out or sublimation from the warm and windy weather.

Click the link to read the article on the Yale Climate Connections website (Jeff Masters):

March 11, 2026

February 2026 was the world’s fifth-warmest February in analyses of global weather data going back to 1850, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI, reported March 11. The European Copernicus Climate Change Service also rated February 2026 as the fifth-warmest February on record, while NASA had it tied for fourth-warmest. The global-average temperature for December 2025 to February 2026 was the fifth-highest on record.

Global land areas had their sixth-warmest February on record in 2026, while global oceans had their second-warmest February, falling just 0.16 degrees Celsius (0.29°F) shy of the record set in 2024, NOAA said. Africa had its second-warmest February, and South America and Asia experienced their seventh- and eighth-warmest February, respectively. While North America, Europe, Oceania, the Arctic, and the Antarctic all experienced above-average February temperatures, none ranked among the top 10.

Snow cover in February was well below average over the Western U.S. and much of Asia and Europe. Overall, Northern Hemisphere snow cover during February 2026 was the third-lowest since records began in 1967.

Warm and dry in the U.S.

As detailed in our post from Tuesday, in the contiguous U.S., winter 2025-26 was the second-warmest and fifth-driest in records going back to 1895. February was the fourth-warmest and fifth-driest February on record. According to the March 5 U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 55% of the continental U.S. was in drought at the beginning of March, up from the 43% coverage at the beginning of the year. Snow-covered area across the Western United States was 38% of the average for February, ranking last in the 26-year satellite record. It was the second month in a row to reach a record low.

An El Niño event looking more likely to develop this year

A weak La Niña event continues in the Eastern Pacific, NOAA reported in its February monthly discussion of the state of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO (the next discussion is scheduled for March 12). La Niña conditions are expected to end in the February-April 2026 period (60% chance), with ENSO-neutral conditions then persisting through August (56% chance). An increasing chance of El Niño conditions is predicted as 2026 progresses, according to the Columbia University International Research Institute for Climate and Society forecast issued February 19. Update: On March 12, in its monthly ENSO discussion, NOAA issued an El Niño Watch; they noted that if El Niño does materialize later this year, there is now a 1-in-3 chance that the event will be a strong one.

The forecast for the August-September-October peak of hurricane season called for a 61% chance of El Niño, a 34% chance of ENSO-neutral, and a 5% chance of La Niña. NOAA is giving a 35% chance of moderate or stronger El Niño conditions if an El Niño event develops. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity through an increase in wind shear, but La Niña conditions tend to have the opposite effect. The most recent ENSO forecast from the European model was very bullish on a significant El Niño event developing by late spring or summer and continuing through at least fall 2026.

Last month, NOAA switched to using the Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI, as its standard ENSO monitoring tool. This tool uses sea surface temperatures across the tropics to adjust the Oceanic Niño Index, making it a better gauge of how ENSO is expressed in a warming climate.

Read: A new and better way to keep tabs on El Niño

Arctic sea ice: third-lowest February extent on record

Arctic sea ice extent during February 2026 was virtually tied with February 2017 as the third-lowest in the 48-year satellite record, behind only February 2025 and February 2018, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Overtopping this depleted ice was an atmosphere more frigid than the recent norm, as the Arctic had its 45th warmest February since 1850 – but the coldest since 2009.

 Antarctic sea ice extent in February 2026 was near the long-term average, ranking as the 21st-lowest in the 48-year record. The Antarctic had above-average temperatures in February, ranking as the 13th-warmest since 1850. Antarctic sea ice reached its minimum extent for the year, at 2.58 million square kilometers (996,000 square miles) on February 26, 2026, ranking 16th-lowest in the 48-year satellite record.

Click the link to read the discussion on the Climate Prediction Center website:

March 12, 2026

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory / El Niño Watch

Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

La Niña continued in February 2026, with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) persisting in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.5°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at -0.2°C and +0.6°C, respectively. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180 -100°W) continued to increase, reflecting the strengthening of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific. Over the east-central equatorial Pacific, low-level wind anomalies were easterly, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and convection was enhanced over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system remained consistent with La Niña.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2, points toward ENSO-neutral through the late Northern Hemisphere Spring 2026, with a transition to El Niño thereafter. Even though model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year, the increasing odds of El Niño are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds. If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be “strong” during October-December 2026 (Niño-3.4 ≥ +1.5°C). In summary, a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month, with ENSO-neutral favored through May-July 2026 (55% chance). In June-August 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (62% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

Click the link to read the update on the NIDIS website. Here’s an excerpt:

March 12, 2026

Record Snowpack Deficits Worsen in February; Conditions Expected to Deteriorate Further with Chances for Record Heat

Key Points

• Snow drought worsened from February into early March due to record warmth, despite near-normal precipitation across much of the West. Some locations, such as the central and northern Cascades in Washington, were also drier than normal during this period. Every major river basin and state in the West is experiencing a snow drought.
• Record-breaking high temperatures are forecasted for large parts of the West. Further, the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center lean toward drier-than-normal conditions for almost all of the West along with a strong probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures through March. Record-breaking snow drought conditions are expected to further deteriorate as snow melt begins much earlier for some. 
• Every major river basin in the West experienced its first or second warmest winter (December, January, and February) on record. The Great Basin, Rio Grande, Arkansas-White-Red, and Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins experienced their warmest winter on record, while the Missouri and Columbia River Basins recorded their second warmest.
• As of March 8, Colorado reported record-low statewide snowpack. Stations in the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington are reporting the greatest snowpack deficits in the West. Some states, such as California, are already experiencing an early melt out of snow.
  • The Colorado River Basin reports record-low snow water equivalent (SWE). 
  • Basins like the Deschutes, Humboldt, Yakima, and Rio Grande continue to see snow drought conditions deteriorate. 
• Snow drought impacts are occurring and are expected to worsen. Municipal and agricultural water supply concerns and restrictions are increasing.
  • The Bureau of Reclamation’s most probable forecast for Lake Powell shows minimum power pool elevation being reached by December 2026. If the water drops below this point, the Glen Canyon Dam may no longer generate hydroelectricity.
  • The Bureau of Reclamation’s initial April–September water supply forecast for the Yakima Basin has those with pro-ratable water rights only receiving 44% of their full water allotments. 
  • The North Platte River Basin is under priority administration issued by the Wyoming State Engineer’s Office based on the Modified North Platte Decree.

Snow Drought Conditions Summary

This update is based on data available as of Monday, March 9, 2026 at 12:00 a.m. PT. We acknowledge that conditions are evolving. 

Quantifying snow drought values is an ongoing research effort. Here, we define snow drought as snow water equivalent (SWE) at or below the 20th percentile, which is a baseline guided by partner expertise and research. Note that reporting of SWE by Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations may be unavailable or delayed due to technical, weather or other issues, which may affect snow drought depiction in this update. 

Current Conditions

The last three months (December, January, and February) were the warmest or tied the warmest winter on record dating back to 1895 for Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, and Wyoming. Arizona and New Mexico broke their previous records set in 2015 and 1907, respectively, by over 2°F. California, Idaho, and Montana experienced their second warmest winter on record; Washington experienced its fourth warmest. 

Coming off of a record-dry January, near-normal precipitation fell over most, but not all, of the West in February and early March. Precipitation deficits are increasing in parts of Colorado, the Washington Cascades, New Mexico, Arizona, and the plains of Wyoming and Montana. 

This winter brought record flooding, rain-on-snow events, record-warm temperatures, and record dryness across the West. Because of these conditions, snow melted early in many places and failed to accumulate in middle and lower elevations. Snow fell and is currently present at higher elevations where temperatures were cold enough to produce snow, but high-elevation snow does not offset overall deficits from the absence of middle and low-elevation snowpack. As a result, snowpack remains extremely low across the West. Some minor improvements occurred in some basins over the last month, but there was not enough snow to offset the substantial deficits.

If Precipitation Fell, It Fell as Rain for Many

Winter Concludes as the Record Warmest for Much of the West

Winter Ends With More Record-Low Snow

Rocky Mountain Snow Conditions (Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming)

Northern Rocky Mountains

• 54% of stations in Montana are in snow drought
• 59% of stations in Idaho are in snow drought
• 42% of stations in Wyoming are in snow drought

Snow drought conditions continue to be widespread across the region. Lower to mid-elevation and plains snowpack is almost non-existent across Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming. February precipitation was near-to-above normal, except over northern Montana, as well as central and eastern Wyoming, which saw substantial precipitation deficits. Record-breaking warm temperatures in February worsened snow drought as precipitation that fell did so as rain. Snow accumulated mostly at the highest elevations across the Northern Rocky Mountains.

Snow water equivalent (SWE) in Idaho is 58-87% of median, with many SNOTEL stations in southwestern Idaho reporting record-low values. Record-low SWE is occurring at many SNOTEL stations across Wyoming’s Big Horn and Laramie Mountains. In western Montana, SWE is 78-95% of median, with several stations reporting record-low SWE values across the state.  

Central Rocky Mountains

• 74% of stations in Utah are in snow drought
• 97% of stations in Colorado are in snow drought

Despite snowfall in February, snow drought continued across the Central Rocky Mountains of Colorado and Utah. Colorado experienced its warmest February on record, and Utah its third warmest on record. Though snow water equivalent (SWE) as a percent of median improved over the last month, seasonal deficits are so great that snow drought and record-low SWE persists in much of the region. For example, from February 10-20 several snow storms brought substantial, needed snow across the state of Colorado. However, the snow was not enough to alleviate deficits, and statewide average SWE remained at a record low.

Both the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basin are reporting record-low SWE. USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service’s SWE projections for the Upper Colorado River Basin indicate that the most likely scenario peak SWE is around 10-30% of normal. These values could change depending on how conditions evolve. In Colorado, SWE in 1977 and 1981 was lower than in 2026, according to long-term snow course records with at least 50 years of data. However, this was due to less precipitation. Winter 2026 was much warmer than the winters of 1977 and 1981, while those years were much drier than this year. 

Colorado statewide average SWE is at its record low, 63% of median. Utah statewide average SWE is the second lowest on record at 65% of median. All basins in the Central Rocky Mountains are below 70% of median SWE, except small portions of the Green River Basin in northeast Utah. 

Record-Low Snow Water Equivalent Since Mid-January in the Upper Colorado River Basin 

Looking Ahead

Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Record-breaking high temperatures are forecasted for large parts of the West next week. Further, the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center lean toward drier-than-normal conditions for almost all of the West along with a strong probability of warmer-than-normal temperatures through March. Record-breaking snow drought conditions are expected to further deteriorate as snowmelt begins much earlier for some. Additional, early snow loss at middle- and low-elevation stations is likely to occur over the next two weeks. Some basins may melt completely weeks earlier than normal. These forecasted conditions would increase already critical water supply concerns across the West…

Water Supply Forecasts

Many regions are likely to see earlier and lower than usual runoff. Water supply forecasts from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center are well-below average, with most sites forecasted to see less than 70% of average season runoff. The forecasted unregulated inflow into Lake Powell is only 35% of average, which would be the fifth driest over the historical record. Seasonal water supply forecasted volumes from the California-Nevada River Forecast Center dropped significantly after the late February snowmelt event in the Sierra Nevada, and most locations are forecasted to receive less than 70% of median April–July runoff. In the Northwest, April–September runoff volume forecasts are mostly near to below normal, according to the Northwest River Forecast Center. Forecasts from the Missouri Basin River Forecast Center range around 78% of average for the Missouri Basin above Fort Peck, Montana. 

Wildfire

Without the presence of snow across the landscape, soils and plants may begin to dry out earlier than usual. Due to the record-breaking warmth this year, high temperatures can lead to increased and rapid dry down of the landscape, again leading to an early start to the fire season. An extended fire season is a critical concern but does not guarantee large fires, as ignitions would still be required to generate large wildfires. 

For More Information, Contact:

Dan McEvoy 
Desert Research Institute, Western Regional Climate Center
daniel.mcevoy@dri.edu

Jason Gerlich
University of Colorado Boulder Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences / NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System 
jason.gerlich@noaa.gov

Amanda Sheffield 
University of Colorado Boulder Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences / NOAA’s National Integrated Drought Information System 
amanda.sheffield@noaa.gov

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Following a drier-than-normal winter, a pattern change at the beginning of March resulted in widespread heavy precipitation (1 to 3 inches, locally more) and a 1-category improvement to parts of the Ohio and Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley. This drought improvement extended east to the Central Appalachians and the Northeast. However, a long-term drought continues for much of the Northeast. Despite the much-needed rainfall for portions of the Southeast and Southern Great Plains, severe (D2) to extreme (D3) drought persists for many areas. A low snowpack and early onset of snowmelt are a major drought concern for the West. As of March 10, drought of varying intensity was designated for parts of Hawaii. Alaska and Puerto Rico remain drought-free…

High Plains

Widespread drought of varying intensity continues across much of the Central Great Plains and Central Rockies. Drought expanded this past week to include all of southwestern Colorado and intensified for northwestern parts of the state. The low snowpack throughout the Central Rockies, especially Colorado, remains a major concern heading into the spring. As of March 10, snow water equivalent for the river basins of Colorado is running below 70 percent of the 1991-2020 average. There were a couple exceptions to the worsening conditions. A wet snow (1” or more, liquid equivalent) supported the removal of extreme (D3) drought across parts of the Denver metro area. Heavy rainfall (more than 1.5 inches) prompted small 1-category improvements to eastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska…

West

The low snowpack throughout much of the West is a major concern heading into the spring. As of March 10, snow water equivalent (SWE) is less than 40 percent of normal from the Cascades of the Pacific Northwest southward through the Great Basin and Four Corners region. 14-day temperatures, valid from February 25 to March 10, have averaged 5 to degrees F above normal. This warmer-than-normal end to February and start to March has led to an early onset of snowmelt for parts of the West. Although California remains drought-free, SWE is 53 percent of normal statewide according to the California Department of Water Resources. Overall, only minor changes were made this past week to the West Region. Based on increasing 60-day precipitation deficits and to reflect the low snowpack, abnormal dryness (D0) was added to parts of northern California. Drought expanded into southeastern Utah while intensifying to severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought across northeastern and western portions of the state. Moderate (D1) drought was expanded across north-central to northeastern Washington along with central Oregon due to 30 to 90-day precipitation deficits and low snowpack…

South

Despite the locally heavy rainfall across the Lower Mississippi Valley along with eastern Oklahoma and Texas, only modest improvements were warranted as a favorable response among the various indicators was not enough to justify more widespread 1-week changes. However, targeted 1-category improvements were made to parts of northwestern Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma, eastern Texas, and the Lower Mississippi Valley where weekly precipitation amounts exceeded 2 inches. In areas that missed out on the beneficial rainfall, drought intensified for parts of west-central Oklahoma and the Oklahoma Panhandle. A majority of the South Region has received less than half their normal precipitation with a temperature departure of more than 6 degrees F above normal during the past 90 days. These 3-month precipitation and temperature observations are consistent with a La Nina wintertime pattern…

Looking Ahead

In the wake of a cold front, sharply colder temperatures are forecast to overspread the eastern U.S. on March 12. A second and even stronger cold front is expected to progress east from the Great Plains to the East Coast by March 16. Following this strong March cold front, subfreezing temperatures are forecast to extend as far south as Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. According to the Weather Prediction Center, 5-day precipitation amounts from March 12-16 are forecast to exceed 1 inch, liquid equivalent, across the Great Lakes and New England. Much needed rainfall is also anticipated for drought-stricken Florida. Elsewhere, drier weather is forecast for the Ohio Valley, Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley, and Great Plains. During mid-March, dry weather will be accompanied by an increasing chance of record heat across California, the Great Basin, and Southwest. A powerful Kona low will bring heavy to excessive rainfall to Hawaii through at least March 14. 

The NWS 6-10 day outlook (valid March 17-21) leans toward below-normal temperatures for the East, while above-normal temperatures are likely from the West Coast to the Great Plains. Above-normal temperature probabilities exceed 90 percent across most of California, the Great Basin, and Southwest. In contrast to the warmer–than-normal temperatures over the West, Alaska is likely to be colder-than-normal. A majority of the lower 48 states are favored to have below-normal precipitation from March 17-21 with the largest below-normal precipitation probabilities (greater than 50 percent) forecast across the Central to Southern Great Plains, Southwest, and much of California. The wet pattern is forecast to persist for Hawaii with enhanced above-normal precipitation probabilities.

Click the link to read the analysis on the NOAA website:

March 9, 2026

Key Points:

• February was the fourth warmest and fifth driest on record for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) in the 132-year record.
• Winter (December 2024–February 2025) ranked as the second warmest for the CONUS and was the driest in 45 years.
• Arizona, New Mexico and Utah each broke their previous warmest-winter record by more than 2°F.
• A historic “bomb cyclone” during Feb 22–24 brought blizzard conditions, hurricane-force wind gusts and heavy snowfall from the Mid-Atlantic to New England.
• Alaska saw a particularly cold winter, recording much-below-average temperatures across parts of the central Interior.
• Drought conditions expanded by more than 10% in February to cover more than half of the CONUS.

Other Highlights:

Temperature

The CONUS average temperature during February was 40.4°F, 6.6°F above the 20th-century average. Extensive portions of the country west of the Mississippi River experienced much-above-average temperatures, while portions of the eastern seaboard observed below-average temperatures that ranked in the lowest third of their historical records. Seven states experienced one of their two warmest Februaries on record, including Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Oklahoma, which each set new statewide records.

The CONUS average temperature for meteorological winter (December–February) was 37.1°F, 4.9°F above the 20th-century average, ranking as the second-warmest winter in the 131-year record. Based on average temperatures across NOAA climate regions, the West and Southwest each experienced their warmest winter on record, while the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Plains as well as the South each ranked second warmest. In contrast, the Northeast climate region was cooler than average, ranking in the lowest third of its historical record.

Nine states recorded their warmest winter on record, with an additional five experiencing their second warmest. Daytime high temperatures were particularly notable, with the CONUS averaging 48.3°F—5.6°F above average—marking the warmest winter for daytime highs in the 131-year record and the first time the seasonal average exceeded 48°F. Eleven states also recorded their warmest winter for average maximum temperatures. At the county level, 585 counties—home to more than 116 million people, or roughly one-third of the U.S. population—experienced their warmest winter on record for daytime highs. Illustrating this exceptional warmth, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport recorded 16 days with maximum temperatures of at least 80°F, the highest seasonal total on record (since 1898) and about 60% above the previous record set in 2016–17.

Despite the widespread warmth, eight states stretching from Ohio to Massachusetts experienced below-average winter temperatures that ranked in the lowest third of their records.

The Alaska statewide temperature in February was 4.0°F, 0.8°F below the 1925–2000 average and ranked in the middle third of the 102-year period of record for the state. Much of mainland Alaska had below-average temperatures, contrasting with above-average conditions in southeast Alaska, the Aleutians and the lower Alaska Peninsula. Alaska’s average temperature for winter was 0.8°F, 2.8°F below the 1925–2000 average, ranking in the coolest third of the record. Much of the Alaska Interior recorded below- to much-below-average temperatures for the season, with Fairbanks Airport recording its coldest winter since 1970–71.

The Hawaiʻi statewide average temperature during February was 63.2°F, 0.2°F above the 1991–2020 average, ranking in the middle third of the 36-year record. For winter as a whole, the statewide average temperature was 64.4°F, 0.7°F above average, placing it in the warmest third of the record.

Precipitation

February precipitation for the CONUS was 1.37 inches, 0.76 inch below the 20th-century average and the driest since 2002. Significant precipitation deficits stretched from the northern Rockies and central Plains through the Midwest, Ohio Valley and Northeast, and from parts of the Southwest and southern Plains across much of the Deep South and Southeast. In total, 11 states recorded one of their 10 lowest February precipitation totals, including Mississippi, which broke its 1947 record receiving less than 30 percent of its average February precipitation. In contrast, above-average precipitation was largely confined to a narrow corridor from the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes, with isolated areas across parts of the West and Northwest.

A historic blizzard on February 22–24 brought heavy snowfall and hurricane-force winds to portions of the Northeast. Providence, RI, reported its largest snowstorm on record, while several other cities recorded February totals not seen in more than a decade. The storm was classified as a major snowstorm based on NOAA’s Regional Snowfall Index (RSI), which estimates that snowfall affected more than 115 million people—about one-third of the U.S. population—including about 28 million people who received over a foot.

The CONUS received an average of 4.95 inches of precipitation during winter, 1.84 inches below the 20th-century average, ranking as the fifth-driest winter in the 131-year record. Large portions of the central and eastern U.S. experienced much-below-average precipitation—18 states recorded one of their 10 driest winters on record—while much of the western U.S. had near-average totals. A notable exception was Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, which received much-above-average to record winter precipitation.

Alaska’s average monthly precipitation in February ranked in the middle third of the 102-year period of record. For winter as a whole, precipitation across Alaska was also near average.

The Hawaiʻi statewide precipitation total during February was 8.11 inches, 3.01 inches above the 1991–2020 average, ranking in the wettest third of the 36-year record. Several records were set during the month as powerful Kona Lows delivered extreme rainfall, including over 25 inches in a single day on Oahu and a 72-hour total surpassing 30 inches on the Big Island. For winter as a whole, the statewide precipitation total was 16.22 inches, 0.33 inch below the 1991–2020 average, placing it in the middle third of the record.

Drought

According to the March 3 U.S. Drought Monitor report, about 54.9% of the CONUS was in drought, an increase of about 10.4% from the beginning of February. Drought persisted across much of the Rockies and the eastern seaboard and expanded or intensified across portions of the northern Rockies, Plains, Mississippi Valley, South and Southeast.

Monthly Report

Most of the CONUS is favored to see above-average temperatures in March, with the highest probabilities (exceeding 60–70%) centered over the South and Southeast, while Alaska is forecast to experience below-average temperatures, particularly in the Alaska Interior. Above-average precipitation is likely for a broad swath extending from the southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes. Drier-than-average conditions are favored for much of California and Florida. Visit the Climate Prediction Center’s Official 30-Day Forecasts for more details.

Drought is expected to persist across much of the interior West, Southwest and High Plains, along with the eastern seaboard. However, significant improvement or drought removal is forecast for parts of the Southern Plains, across much of the Mississippi Valley and Hawaiʻi. Visit the U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook website for more details.

Significant wildland fire potential is above average across a wide region including the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast, extending northward into Virginia. For additional information on wildland fire potential, visit the National Interagency Fire Center’s One-Month Wildland Fire Outlook.

For more detailed climate information, check out our comprehensive February 2026 U.S. Climate Report scheduled for release on March 12, 2026. For additional information on the statistics provided here, visit the Climate at a Glance and National Maps webpages.

Click the link to read the report on the NRCS website (and to visit the data for the individual basins). Here’s an excerpt: