Am I the only one who’s uncomfortable with the “40 million” number?

A young boy with a surprised expression is sitting at a classroom table, looking at a worksheet with large numbers. He holds a marker and appears puzzled by the question 'Forty million??' in bold yellow text. Other children are visible in the background, engaged in their activities.
A.I. generated image using Nana Banana 2

While it’s technically true that 40 million people across seven states and Mexico use water systems that are supplied in part by the Colorado River, it’s misleading to say that “40 million people depend on Colorado River water”. That oft-repeated statement obscures the fact that the vast majority of water districts use multiple sources of water. Worse – 40 million is obviously just a rough guess which makes it sound like our federal agencies don’t really know the actual number.

Top three reasons why the “40 million” phrase is misleading

1. Agriculture consumes the vast majority of the water, not individuals

The phrase implies that 40 million people rely on the river primarily for drinking, bathing, and basic survival. In reality, agricultural irrigation consumes roughly 75% to 80% of the river’s water. A massive portion of that goes specifically toward water-intensive cattle feed crops like alfalfa and hay. Domestic, household use accounts for only about 10% to 13% of the total supply. The narrative of “40 million thirsty citizens” masks the fact that the crisis is fundamentally an agricultural management problem rather than a residential population crisis. 

2. Major urban areas only use the river as a fractional supplement

Many of the 40 million people counted in this statistic live in large coastal or metropolitan cities—such as Los Angeles, San Diego, Denver, and Phoenix—that do not rely solely on the Colorado River. These cities utilize a diversified portfolio of water sources, including local groundwater, northern state aqueducts, state-wide recycling systems, and other local river basins. Saying they “depend” on the Colorado River implies total reliance, when it often provides only a fraction of their municipal supply. 

3. Aggressive water recycling and conservation significantly blunt “dependence”

Using the word “depend” creates a fatalistic narrative that if the river’s flow drops, 40 million people will run out of water. In practice, many of the urban centers counted in the 40 million figure are highly resilient due to aggressive wastewater recycling and conservation efforts. For example, Las Vegas and the state of Nevada recycle nearly 85% of their treated wastewater back into Lake Mead. Because these cities reuse the same water multiple times, their actual net depletion of the river is much lower than their gross population would suggest.

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