Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Climate Center website (Peter Goble):

February 14, 2025

Happy Valentine’s Day! Every mid-February we take a day to let our romantic partners know how much they mean to us, or perhaps more cynically, to give money to Hallmark. Growing up, this was never one of my favorite holidays. For one, I was a nerd, and usually single. For two, I suffer from a tinge of seasonal affective disorder. Once the glow of Christmas, New Year’s, and a holiday break wears off, we are left to suffer through the remainder of the cold season with relatively few festivities. Growing up in northern Colorado my rule of thumb was always “things get better after Valentine’s Day.”

If you are somebody who is impacted by the short daylight hours and low sun angles, chances are you have already noticed things getting better. Here in Fort Collins, the sun rose at 7:21 AM and set at 4:37 PM on the winter solstice in late December. Today the sun rose at 6:54 AM and will set at 5:34 local time. That is over an hour and a half of improvement! Having said that, if you are somebody who is impacted more by cold temperatures than short days, yesterday morning’s low of -5 ˚F probably did you no favors. Of course, not every mid-February day is so cold, but even the average daily minimum temperature on Valentine’s Day is only 20 ˚F, just three degrees warmer than the average low in late December. Similarly, the mean daily temperature (daily max + daily min)/2 on Valentine’s Day is 33 ˚F, only 3 ˚F warmer than late December.

We know that the sun is our primary source of energy here on Earth, and we know that winter is cold because the northern hemisphere, in which we live, is tilted away from the sun. Conversely, summer is warmer because the northern hemisphere is tilted towards the sun, leading to longer days and more direct sunlight. The days are already getting much longer. Why are we not heating up more quickly?

As it turns out, at a large scale, the atmosphere takes about one month to adjust to an increase or decrease in solar forcing. This creates a cycle wherein changes in average temperatures lag changes in daylight by about a month. This plays out almost like a dance between light and heat where light leads and heat follows. To illustrate this point, I grabbed the Fort Collins 1991-2020 daily temperature normals data from SCACIS, and sunrise/sunset times for 2025 from timeanddate.com. A 15-day smoothing filter was applied to the temperature data for the sake of improved visualization (this means each day’s temperature normal is an average of the current day, and the seven calendar days before and after). The plot of our daylight hours throughout the year is nearly a perfect sine wave peaking at the summer solstice in June and hitting a minimum at the winter solstice in December (it is not a perfect sine wave because the earth’s orbit is not perfectly symmetrical). The plot of average temperatures similarly looks like a sine wave, but is phase shifted by about one month.

Light and heat’s annual dance is not perfectly choreographed here in Fort Collins, nor in most any other location. If you’re looking closely at these graphics you probably also noticed some asymmetries and additional wiggles in our average temperature curve. I want to talk about two of the main ones, which I will define with the following terms: the summer:winter asymmetry and the spring shimmy. The summer:winter asymmetry refers to the fact that average temperatures are at their lowest right around the winter solstice, but at their highest a full month after the summer solstice (July 20-24). Were this a dance, you could imagine light spinning heat out in the summer and corralling heat back in for the winter.

Our summertime average temperatures peaking in late July fits perfectly with the explanation above of temperatures trailing solar forcing. Temperatures reaching a minimum just about in lockstep the winter solstice does not fit with our above explanation.  According to climatologist Brian Brettschneider, who wrote a tremendous blog post on seasons back in 2017, there is actually a dearth of scientific literature over why seasonal fluctuations vary from place-to-place the way they do. My hypothesis is that average precipitation is a bit higher on the northern Front Range in November and December than January and February, so there may be a slightly higher probability of cloudy conditions during this time, keeping averages lower in December than January.

The spring shimmy refers to the wiggle in average temperature’s increase in April. In our dance analogy, heat is accelerating pace to catch light, but does a toe drag. This behavior is much easier to explain. Fort Collins sees its highest average precipitation in late April through early June. We definitely see cloudier conditions around this time, and more of the sun’s energy goes into evaporation and transpiration during this time because of the wetter surface conditions. Both of these factors slow our warming pattern in spring.

The spring shimmy shows up even more prominently if we find a way to display both daylight and temperatures using one line on the same graph. In the image below I computed what we’ll call a “heat fraction” for each day of the year. This is computed as follows: [Current day average temperature – Lowest day average temperature]/[Highest day average temperature – lowest day average temperature]. The highest average daily temperature is 74F (in July) and the lowest is 30 F (in December). The formula above gives a unitless quantity with a max value of 1 (in July) and a minimum value of 0 (in December). As an example, the average temperature on October 1^st is 56 F, so the heat fraction would be [56-30]/[74-30] =  26/44 = 0.59. I did the same for “light fraction” which uses the same formula above, but for daylight hours. Below I plotted the difference between the two: heat fraction – light fraction. It reaches a maximum value of +0.21 on September 8^th and a minimum value of -0.3 on April 30^th, right during our wettest time of year.

The temperature dataset actually includes some additional even smaller wiggles. My supposition is that these wiggles are mostly due to the fact that we are only using 30 years of data: 1991-2020. Our climate normals are just an average of wildly varying day-to-day weather conditions. Even though we used 30 years of data and applied a smoothing filter to the temperature dataset, there are still likely to be some small peaks and dips due to highly anomalous individual weather events. Take for instance December 2022 (see graph below): temperatures were mostly warmer than normal until right before Christmas when we quickly plummeted to a low of -17 ˚F. It takes a lot of years of data to fully smooth out events like this.

Other locations: Not all locations in the northern hemisphere experience their average peak summer heat or frigid winter weather at the same time. Using data from the National Centers for Environmental Information we can see that much of the country does experience the coldest weather in January rather than December. The image below from Brian Brettschneider’s blog shows that the start and end of the average coldest 90-day stretch of the year varies significantly across North America. The Arctic Circle does not see any sunlight all winter, so it is not surprising that the average coldest 90-day period is later: lasting from late December all the way until late March. Most of the country sees the coldest weather of the year between late November and late February, but the northeastern United States sees a bit longer lag with the coolest 90 days lasting from early December to early March. Conversely, most of North America experiences its warmest weather between early June and early September. Coastal areas tend to see their warmest weather a little later in the season because ocean waters heat up and cool down more slowly in response to solar forcing than land and air.

After all this information, I want to bring the focus back to my opening statement about seasonal affective disorder that “Things get better after Valentine’s Day.” We see in the data that our days are already getting longer, and at an accelerating pace. Furthermore, while average temperatures have not warmed much yet, they are certainly about to. The average temperature on Valentine’s Day is 33 ˚F, but one month later it’s 41 ˚F. Three months from now it’s 57 ˚F. Even so, winter is not over yet. This is neither medical nor even climatological advice, but my advice for staying happy during cold weather is to embrace it. February and early March is a perfect time of year for all sorts of winter fun like downhill and cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, and ice skating. You don’t even have to do anything fancy. When I go outside to walk in cold weather I rarely regret it unless conditions are also windy. In contrast, if I use cold weather as an excuse to hibernate, eat unhealthy food, and overconsume insipid short-form content on my phone, I regret that every time.

Click the link to read the article on The Durango Herald website (Shane Benjamin, Reuben M. Schafir, and Jessica Bowman). Here’s an excerpt:

February 14, 2025

The storm is good news for the region’s water supply, which has languished in recent weeks. The SNOTEL site at Cascade Creek, just north of Purgatory Resort, reported 18 inches of snow accumulation since Thursday afternoon, which translated to 1.2 inches of snow-water equivalent. The side near the top of Coal Bank Pass reported 20 inches of snow accumulation and 1.8 inches snow-water equivalent. Lemon Reservoir had received 16 inches of snow with 1½ inches of snow-water equivalent as of 6 p.m. Friday….

Peter Goble, an assistant state climatologist at the Colorado Climate Center, said the snowpack is lower than it has been since 2018 – and one storm won’t turn that around.

“Every storm like this is a storm we’ll take, at this point,” he said, but he noted that the region needs several more storms to catch up to normal snowpack levels.

Soil moisture in the region is not as dry as recent years, he said. And that’s good news because arid soils suck up snowmelt, reducing runoff.

Click the link to read the assessment on the Western Water Assessment website:

In January, precipitation varied across the region, from much below average conditions in Utah and western Colorado to much above average conditions in eastern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. January temperatures were colder than usual, especially in Colorado and Wyoming where temperatures were 6 to 10°F below average. Snow-water equivalent (SWE) was generally below normal, particularly in southern Utah and southwestern Colorado. Seasonal streamflow forecasts for February 1st indicate below average runoff for much of the region, with the worst forecasts for Utah. Drought coverage increased across the region, affecting 56% of the region as of February 4th. La Niña conditions emerged in the Pacific Ocean but are expected to transition back to ENSO-neutral by spring 2025. NOAA seasonal forecasts for February-April suggest an increased probability of below average precipitation for the majority of the region.

January precipitation was below to much below average in Utah, western Colorado, and southwestern Wyoming, and above to much above average in eastern Colorado and central to southeastern Wyoming. Large areas of 200-400% of average precipitation occurred from Laramie County in southeastern Wyoming down to Pueblo County in southeastern Colorado, with small pockets of 200-400% of average precipitation in Natrona County in central Wyoming and Uintah County in northeastern Utah. Large areas of less than 2% of average precipitation occurred in southern Utah. Record-dry conditions occurred across Utah and in the West Slope of Colorado.

January temperatures were near to below average in Utah and below to much below average in Colorado and Wyoming. Temperatures of 6 to 8°F below average occurred throughout most of Colorado and Wyoming with scattered pockets of 8 to 10°F below average. One pocket of lower than 10°F below average temperatures occurred in Carbon County in southern Wyoming.

Snow-water equivalent (SWE) was near to below normal for the majority of the region, with much below normal conditions in southern Utah and southwestern Colorado. The majority of river basins in Colorado and Utah saw a significant decrease in SWE conditions relative to median during January, whereas many Wyoming river basins saw a significant increase, particularly the Belle Fourche, Cheyenne, Tongue, Bighorn, and Powder River Basins. On a statewide basis, February 1st SWE conditions in Colorado were near normal (90%) and below normal in Wyoming (85%) and Utah (76%). Southern Utah is still experiencing the worst snow drought conditions with the Virgin River Basin at 26% of normal and the Escalante River Basin at 40% of normal. According to the Real-Time Spatial Estimates of Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE) tool, all major river basins in the region have below average February 1 SWE except for the Tongue and Powder River Basins in Wyoming which are slightly above average at 113% and 108%, respectively. The Lower Colorado and Lower San Juan River Basins in southern Utah are experiencing the lowest average SWE at 4% and 1%, respectively.

February 1st seasonal streamflow forecasts suggest below average runoff throughout much of the region, with much below average runoff in Utah, and near average runoff in eastern Colorado and northeastern Wyoming. In Colorado, seasonal streamflow forecasts for the Animas, Upper Colorado, and Gunnison are below average (70-89%), and the Dolores and San Juan River Basins are much below average (50-69%). In Utah, seasonal streamflow forecasts for the Lower Green, Price, Provo, and Six Creeks are below average and the Bear, Colorado, and Weber are much below average, with exceptionally below average forecasts for the Duchesne, Sevier, and Virgin River Basins (<50%). In Wyoming, seasonal streamflow forecasts for the North Platte and Snake are below average and the Bighorn, Upper Green, Shoshone, and Wind River Basins are much below average.

Regional drought coverage increased in January and now, as of February 4th, covers 56% of the region, compared to 39% in early January. Drought coverage nearly quadrupled in Utah and doubled in Colorado, while Wyoming saw a slight decrease in drought coverage. In Colorado, moderate (D1) drought expanded in the West Slope and severe (D2) drought developed in the southwest. In Utah, D1 drought expanded across the state, D2 drought expanded in the southwest, and extreme (D3) drought developed in the southwest. Despite Wyoming still experiencing over 80% drought coverage, there was a slight improvement in drought conditions across the state in January.

After many months of ENSO-neutral conditions, La Niña conditions emerged during January. These conditions will most likely be short-lived as there is a 60-70% probability of ENSO-neutral conditions emerging by spring 2025. NOAA monthly forecasts for February suggest an increased probability of above average precipitation for northern Utah and western Wyoming, above average temperatures for southeastern Utah and southwestern Colorado, and below average temperatures for northeastern Wyoming. NOAA seasonal forecasts for February-April suggest an increased probability of below average precipitation for the majority of the region, below average temperatures for northern and eastern Wyoming, and above average temperatures for southern Utah and southwestern Colorado.

The new Experimental Winter Forecast predicts December-March precipitation in the western United States using Pacific and Atlantic Ocean temperatures. The most current forecast uses October-December ocean temperatures and indicates slightly above average winter precipitation for much of the region. The regional pattern of precipitation reflects average Pacific Ocean and warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures. Slightly above average winter precipitation is forecasted for most of the region with the highest precipitation relative to average in southern Utah and the lowest in central Wyoming and eastern Colorado.

Significant weather event: Polar vortex descends on Intermountain West. A severe cold wave impacted the Intermountain West on January 19-23. Winter cold waves in temperate latitudes are sometimes referred to as a polar vortex. A polar vortex is an area of low pressure and cold temperatures that always occurs around the North and South Poles. During winter, the polar vortex periodically expands in size and covers more temperate latitudes; this is the source of a cold wave, or Arctic blast in the United States. The severity of the cold wave peaked on 1/20 and 1/21 in Wyoming and Colorado, with slightly warmer temperatures in Utah. Considering weather sites with at least 50 years of data, daily minimum temperature records were set at 9% and 17% of Colorado sites and 21% and 5% of Wyoming sites on 1/20 and 1/21. Daily minimum high-temperature records were set at 17% of Colorado sites on 1/20 and 30% of Colorado sites on 1/21. Temperatures were particularly cold in the lower Arkansas River valley with record daily minimum temperatures of -19ºF in Pueblo and -22ºF in Tacony, CO on 1/21. In Colorado, -40ºF was the coldest temperature of the event, observed at Harbison Meadow near Grand Lake. In Crested Butte, -36ºF was the coldest temperature recorded since 2011. The coldest temperature observed in Wyoming, while not a daily record, was a frigid -40ºF at Old Faithful in Yellowstone, the site’s coldest temperature since 2016. The cold wave was not as severe in Utah as a whole, but a unique site at Peter’s Sink in northern Utah bottomed out at -56.1ºF. In case you were wondering, the coldest recorded temperature in the Lower 48 was -69.7ºF at Rodger’s Pass Montana; the second coldest temperature recorded was at Utah’s Peter’s Sink where temperatures dipped to -69.3ºF in 1985. For the week surrounding the cold wave, average temperatures were 15ºF to 20ºF below normal for large parts of Colorado and Wyoming with small areas up to 25ºF below normal.

Click the link to read the global climate report for January on the NOAA website:

January Highlights:

• Temperatures were above average over much of the globe, but much below average over the United States, Greenland and far eastern Russia.
• Eurasian snow cover extent and Arctic sea ice extent both ranked second lowest on record for January.
• Global tropical cyclone activity was slightly below average with five named storms, three of which occurred in the Indian Ocean.

Temperature

The January global surface temperature was 2.39°F (1.33°C) above the 20th-century average of 53.6°F (12.0°C) and 0.05°F (0.03°C) above the previous record set last year, making last month the warmest January on record. According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Outlook, there is a 7% chance that 2025 will rank as the warmest year on record.

The new January global record is particularly notable for having occurred during a La Niña episode, the cold phase of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Global temperatures tend to be cooler during periods of ENSO-neutral conditions and even cooler during La Niña. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s January 9 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, La Niña conditions emerged in December 2024 and are expected to persist through February–April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March–May 2025 (60% chance).

January temperatures were above average across much of the global land surface, particularly over Alaska, much of western Canada and most of central Eurasia. The United States, Greenland, far eastern Russia and parts of southern Africa and Antarctica were colder than average. Overall it was the warmest January on record over global land areas. Sea surface temperatures were above average over most areas, while much of the central and eastern tropical Pacific was below average (consistent with La Niña), as were parts of the southeast Pacific, western North Atlantic and the northwestern Indian Oceans. The global ocean was the second warmest on record for January.

Snow Cover

The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in January was the fourth lowest on record. While snow cover over North America and Greenland was slightly above average (by 80,000 square miles), Eurasia ranked second lowest on record (940,000 square miles below average). Areas of below-average snow cover stretched across most of Europe southeastward into central Asia.

Sea Ice

Global sea ice extent was the seventh smallest in the 47-year record at 6.89 million square miles, which was 1.17 million square miles below the 1991–2020 average. Arctic sea ice extent was below average (by 330,000 square miles), ranking second lowest on record, and Antarctic extent was slightly below average (by 130,000 square miles).

Tropical Cyclones

Five named storms occurred across the globe in January, which was below the average of seven. Three named storms formed in the southwestern Indian Ocean, the most impactful being Intense Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi, which made landfall on Madagascar and Mozambique, bringing high winds and heavy rains to the affected regions.

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For a more complete summary of climate conditions and events, see our January 2025 Global Climate Report or explore our Climate at a Glance Global Time Series.

Click the link to read the discussion on the Climate Prediction Center website:

Febrary 13, 2025

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

Synopsis: La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the near-term, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (66% chance).

La Niña conditions continued this past month, as indicated by the below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest weekly indices were -0.6°C in Niño-3.4 and -0.9°C in Niño-4, with values close to zero in Niño-1+2 and Niño-3. Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted, with below-average temperatures dominating the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Low-level wind anomalies remained easterly over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and western Pacific and was enhanced over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicated La Niña conditions.

The IRI multi-model average predicts weak La Niña conditions to continue through February-April 2025 and then transition to ENSO-neutral. The IRI dynamical model average and several of the models from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predict an earlier transition to ENSO-neutral in January-March 2025. The forecast team favors a weak La Niña through February-April, but there is also a 41% chance of ENSO-neutral emerging in this season. A weak La Niña is less likely to result in conventional winter/spring impacts, though predictable signals can still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña conditions are expected to persist in the near-term, with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (66% chance).

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Conditions this week were largely based on where precipitation fell. Storms across the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic brought very beneficial rainfall, leading to improvements in eastern Oklahoma, northeast Mississippi, northern Alabama, the Tennessee-North Carolina border, Virginia and northern West Virginia. Outside of this band of precipitation in the center and eastern U.S., conditions continued to deteriorate after weeks of little to no precipitation. Many of the coastal states in the Southeast saw widespread degradation as short-term indicators show deteriorating conditions. High temperatures in many of these areas make conditions worse. Snow in the Northern Rockies and central Montana brought improvements but the rest of the West was not so lucky. Precipitation along coastal mountains kept conditions in Oregon and California unchanged, Nevada and the four-corners region saw conditions continue to deteriorate. Areas of higher elevation are seeing low snowpack for this time of year. Hawaii also saw conditions improve, while Alaska and Puerto Rico remain free of any dry or drought conditions…

High Plains

The High Plains once again missed out on the precipitation that moved through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic parts of the U.S. Western Nebraska and Kansas saw degradation as the lack of precipitation continues to affect the area. Colorado also saw degradations. In the far Northeast, abnormally dry conditions expanded from Nebraska and Kansas. Western Colorado continues to see degradations in the Western Slope and San Juan regions. Wyoming did see some extreme drought removal in the northwest and north central areas as snowpack has markedly improved in the non-mountainous areas…

West

Washington and northwestern Montana saw moderate drought expansion. Despite recent snow accumulation, they are still experiencing large moisture deficits. Conversely, central Idaho into central Montana saw widespread improvements as conditions continue to improve. Idaho has benefited from the recent snow from Boise into the Rocky Mountains into Montana. California remained unchanged this week. Conditions continue to deteriorate across the Four Corners area in the Southwest. Snowpack is below normal for this time of the year and soil moisture and streamflow levels are well below normal…

South

Heavy precipitation fell across western Oklahoma into Kentucky, bringing improvements to the few remaining areas of dry or drought conditions. Northwest Oklahoma saw the removal of some abnormal drought along with northeast Mississippi. Western and central Texas, Louisiana and southern Mississippi missed out on the band of heavy precipitation and saw degradations…

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days, some coastal areas of the West could see precipitation from the Washington Cascades into most of California. Other higher-elevation areas in the Intermountain West as well as in the Southwest, are also expected to receive some precipitation. Heavy precipitation is expected across the South, Southeast and Northeast where amounts are estimated to reach 1.25 to 5 inches in the lower Ohio River Valley and through Alabama. Once again, much of the Plains, from North Dakota through central-west Texas, are expected to see less than a quarter of an inch of precipitation.

The 6-10 day outlook shows the greatest probability of below-normal temperatures are in the central Midwest. Below-normal temperatures are expected to be below-normal from central Montana to central Texas and all the way into Maine. The best chances of above-normal temperatures will likely be across Alaska and Hawaii. Southern Arizona and southern Florida are expected to stay near normal temperatures. The greatest chances of above-normal precipitation are expected to be across the Gulf Coast from Texas and across the Florida Peninsula. A large swath of the country (Washington towards the Gulf of Mexico) is leaning towards above-normal precipitation. Alaska is also leaning toward above-normal precipitation. Along California’s central and southern coast precipitation are expected to be drier –than normal, and to a lesser extent, Arizona, Nevada, and southwest New Mexico. The northern Midwest and Great Lakes region, along with Hawaii, are expected to have near or just below normal precipitation.

Click the link to read the article on the Fence Post website (Amy G. Hadachek):

February 8, 2025

Snowpack has been improving somewhat for Wyoming and northern Colorado — much of that falling in the past week. However, in the southern half of the Intermountain West, there’s a long way to go especially in Arizona and New Mexico, which was explained on the latest Intermountain West Webinar and Drought Outlook on Tuesday, Feb. 4, 2025, hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System. The Intermountain West is made of five states — Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico. Thanks to recent snows, northern Colorado and Wyoming are actually having about 90 percent of median to median snowpack. That means northern Colorado and Wyoming were extremely close to being right on target for normal snowpack, thanks to their winter snowfall, so far…Meanwhile, much of southern Colorado and northern Utah have 70 to 90 percent of median snowpack…Unfortunately, that doesn’t include parts of southwest Colorado and southern Utah, which are showing a smaller snowpack with just 50 to 70 percent of median snowpack.  Then, further down the list is a large chunk of Arizona and New Mexico, which have less than 50 percent of median, with much area under 25 percent of median snowpack…

So far, its been a banner winter for many parts of the Intermountain West. The official snow total for Cheyenne, Wyo., as of Feb. 5, 2025 is 16’6″. Here are other snowfall totals from CoCoRaHS (Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network) for the three northern states. “And, I would really stress that these are atypical and solely because of their locations, especially having to do with elevation. Totals in the 20″-50” range are much more the norm throughout the West, Bergantino said. Reports from CoCoRaHS observers are used by the National Weather Service, the National Centers for Environmental Information, engineers, farmers, teachers and many others. Smoot, Wyo., 4.9 SSE (south of Afton) — 127 inches; Crested Butte, Colo., 6.2 N (west central Colorado) — 111.8 inches; Heber City, Utah, 10.1 ESE (southeast of Salt Lake) — 107 inches Interestingly, Colorado snowfall varied almost every month from fall to current. October was mostly near normal for much of the state. November, however, was generally 400 to 600 percent of normal, especially for sites south of Highway 50, while areas to the north were more spotty, with some areas near normal and other areas above. 

Click the link to read the release on the NRCS website:

February 1, 2025

January brought drier than normal conditions across Colorado, leading to declines in snowpack percentages and streamflow forecasts. Statewide snow water equivalent is 90 percent of median, with the combined San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan basin seeing the most significant decline.

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Denver, CO – February 7^th, 2025 – After a strong early season, January brought drier than normal conditions throughout most of the state, leading to a decrease in snowpack percentages and decreased streamflow forecasts. As of February 5^th, statewide snow water equivalent (SWE) is at 90 percent of median, 5 percent lower compared to early January, reflecting a muted accumulation period. January precipitation continues at below normal levels at 77 percent of median an improvement from December’s 69 percent of median. Water year to date precipitation as of February 1^st is below normal at 91 percent. The January storm cycle was largely uneventful with modest accumulations. The average SWE delta from January 1 to February 6^th is 2 inches with the highest SWE delta at the Tower SNOTEL showing 7.9 inches of SWE for this period. Compared to this time last year most basin snowpack conditions are slightly higher with the exception of the combined San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan River basin at 66 percent of median SWE, a 10 percent drop from this time last year. Reservoir storage remains relatively unchanged, with 94 percent of median statewide as of the end of January. This is a slight decline from 100 percent of median this time last year. Reservoir inputs and outputs have remained steady and no significant changes are expected until spring runoff begins. Streamflow forecasts have decreased since January, now at 89 percent of median, down from 98 percent at the start of the year. This reflects the persistent dry conditions through January. 

January saw significant temperature swings statewide. A sharp cold spell in mid-January set new record lows. This was followed by record high temperatures in late January and early February. Snowpack and streamflow forecasts will remain sensitive to upcoming storm activity, particularly in southern basins where conditions have continued to decline. Near term conditions from NOAAs 6-10 day outlook suggest mid-February may bring increased precipitation statewide, however January’s deficits could limit overall recovery. 

Looking ahead, there are still roughly two months, give or take, until peak SWE, depending on location. Late season storms can still have significant impact and upcoming precipitation plays an important role in shaping spring runoff. To stay informed, water users can explore Basin Reports for precipitation, SWE, reservoir storage and streamflow data at the basin level (Basin Reports). For real time, station specific data, the RG Lite Tool offers a mobile friendly way to track SNOTEL data from standard SNOTEL elements to extended sensor data including soil moisture where available (RG Lite Tool). 

Click the link to read the report on the NRCS website. Here’s an excerpt:

Click on a thumbnail graphic to view a gallery of drought data from the US Drought Monitor website.

Click the link to go to the US Drought Monitor website. Here’s an excerpt:

This Week’s Drought Summary

Another week with isolated precipitation and warmer-than-normal temperatures for much of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) brought a mixture of degradations and some smaller areas of improvement. The Midwest, Northeast and Southeast generally saw one-category degradations near existing abnormally dry or drought areas. There was some improvement from Texas to West Virginia and northeastern Kansas into northwestern Illinois, which followed a band of beneficial precipitation that fell this week. The northern intermountain West saw minor improvements with isolated precipitation and decent snow (snow water equivalent). Washington saw some improvement along the eastern Cascades while abnormally dry conditions expanded southward into northwest Oregon. The Southwest and southern Plains saw extensive degradation. Another week with no precipitation continues drying out the region, with alarmingly low streamflows in some areas and high fire danger from south California into southern New Mexico. Many mountainous regions of the Southwest and into Utah and Colorado are showing abnormally low snowpack, leading to degradation in these areas…

High Plains

Like much of the central part of the country, the High Plains were 5 to 10 degrees warmer than usual. Little precipitation led to minor improvements in southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas and along the Wyoming Rockies. Due to prolonged dryness, South Dakota saw the expansion of severe drought in the north-central eastward and extreme drought in the southwest…

West

The Northwest saw below-normal temperatures while the rest of the Western states were near or above normal. The intermountain West saw temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Precipitation fell along the western coast from Washington to northern California, central Idaho, and higher elevations in Montana and Wyoming. This precipitation, along with good snow water equivalents, aided dry and drought conditions in north-central Washington, northwest and northern Wyoming, and central Montana. Unlike the rest of the northwest, Oregon saw the expansion of abnormal dryness in the northwest. Despite precipitation, streamflow and soil moisture were below the 30th percentile, indicating abnormally dry conditions. The remainder of the West saw widespread degradations. Severe and extreme drought expanded in southern California into southern Nevada, Utah and Arizona. Exceptional drought was introduced in southern Nevada along the northwestern Arizona border. Conditions are alarmingly dry, with dry soil and high fire danger. Moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expanded in central and northern Utah and western Colorado. One-category degradations continued into New Mexico, with abnormal dryness to extreme drought expanding across the state into west Texas…

South

Above-normal temperatures and the absence of this week’s precipitation led to widespread degradations across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, along the Red River and in central Oklahoma. Last week, a band of heavy rainfall fell, leading to improvements in central Texas, along the eastern edge of the Oklahoma-Texas border, along the Red River, and up into central and northern Tennessee. Outside the band of precipitation, Tennessee saw degradations in the West and along the Georgia and North Carolina borders….

Looking Ahead

Over the next five to seven days, some coastal areas of the West could see precipitation from the Oregon Cascades into northern and central California. Other higher-elevation areas in the intermountain West are also expected to receive some precipitation. Precipitation chances appear good over the southern Plains and across much of eastern CONUS, with the heaviest expected in the Appalachian region. Areas from northern Louisiana into West Virginia could see 3 to 5 inches of precipitation. Dry conditions will continue in the Southwest and Central Plains.

The 6-10 day outlook shows the greatest probability of below-normal temperatures is in the northern Plains and across the U.S.-Canadian border. Below-normal temperatures are leaning toward below normal as far south as north Texas. The best chances of above-normal temperatures will be across the Southeast, with the greatest chance being in the Florida Panhandle. Hawaii is also likely to see above-normal temperatures. Alaska could experience below-normal temperatures in the Southeast and above-normal temperatures along the state’s western side. The greatest chances of above-normal precipitation are in the southern Appalachian region and the West in south Oregon and north California. The best opportunity for below-normal precipitation is in the central and northern Alaska interior.

Just for grins here’s a slide show of early February US Drought Monitor maps for the past few years.

Click the link to read the article on the KTNV website (Geneva Zoltek). Here’s an excerpt:

January 25, 2025

In our desert climate, the water we use to shower, brush our teeth or do our landscaping with mostly originates from one area. That’s the Upper Colorado Basin snowpack, which is our long-term water storage system that’s replenished every winter. Currently, that snowpack sits at 76% of the 30 year average. That’s a pretty significant difference compared to the 91% reported just last month...That snowpack feeds the Colorado River, and that water drains into Lake Powell and Lake Mead. Both reservoirs remain relatively low. As of early February, Lake Mead is 34% full and Lake Powell is at 36%.