Academics and Lawmakers Slam an Industry-Funded Report by a Former Energy Secretary Promoting Natural Gas and LNG: “One has to distinguish between reality and wishful thinking” — Inside #Climate News #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Official photograph of [former] United States Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz. By Department of Energy – Office of the Secretary of the Department of Energy, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26224045

Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Phil McKenna):

May 5, 2024

With a pair of fossil-fuel friendly senators at his side, former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz on Tuesday released a favorable report on U.S. natural gas and liquified natural gas (LNG), funded by the natural gas industry.  

The report, โ€œThe Future of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon World,โ€ was written by the EFI Foundation, a nonprofit Moniz founded, and released at the U.S. Capitol. The report examined the role of natural gas in advancing energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability in the United States, Europe and Asia.

The EFI report comes at a pivotal moment for the U.S natural gas and LNG export industry. The Biden Administration paused the approval of new LNG export capacity in January while the Energy Department considers the climate and financial impacts to U.S. gas consumers of additional LNG exports. The document seeks to broaden the discussion on U.S. LNG exports. 

โ€œThe study, as youโ€™ll be hearing, examines the role of natural gas in addressing what is sometimes referred to as the โ€˜energy trilemmaโ€™: energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability,โ€ said Moniz,ย president of the EFI Foundation and chair of the advisory committee that oversaw the report. โ€œUnfortunately, too often, the discussion around those three priorities tends to devolve into stovepipes, as opposed to recognizing that progress on all of them requires treating it as one conversation.โ€

One of the reportโ€™s specific recommendations was to include an โ€œenergy security determinationโ€ in evaluating future permits for additional U.S. LNG export capacity.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), the largest recipient of oil and gas money in Congress, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), representing a state that derives a significant share of its revenue from oil and gas, joined Moniz as โ€œkeynoteโ€ speakers at the event.

Murkowski spoke of the need for an โ€œall of the aboveโ€ energy policy, which was the U.S. energy policy during the Obama administration when Moniz was Secretary of Energy.

Manchin called for lifting the pause on approvals for new LNG export capacity.

The report referred repeatedly to the โ€œessentialโ€ role of natural gas. 

The same day as the reportโ€™s release, Democrats in Congress released a report of their own, the culmination of a three-year investigation, concluding the oil and gas industry has misled Americans for decades about climate change.

โ€œThe fossil fuel industry engaged in an elaborate campaign of deception and doublespeak โ€ฆ as well as disinformation about the climate safety of natural gas and its role as a bridge fuel to a fossil-free future,โ€ the Democratsโ€™ report concluded.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), who released the report as chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, said the oil and gas industry seeks academic partnerships to legitimize its reports.ย 

โ€œDocuments explicitly discuss leveraging โ€˜third party endorsementsโ€™ and partnerships with academic institutions to bolster Big Oilโ€™s disinformation campaign,โ€ Whitehouse said in a written statement to Inside Climate News.

Referring explicitly to the new Moniz report on natural gas, Whitehouse said โ€œthis report is yet another example of the industry deceiving the public about the compatibility of continuedโ€”or even expandedโ€”production of natural gas with the scientific emission reduction targets we must achieve in order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the very worst effects of climate change.โ€

A spokeswoman for Democrats on the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability added that industryโ€™s disinformation campaign โ€œcontinues to this day, including, as [Monizโ€™s] recent report shows, their portrayal of natural gas as a green and climate friendly fuel even though they have failed to address methane emissions associated with natural gas. We know that Big Oil is intent on entrenching natural gas into both the U.S. and global energy economies for the foreseeable future by any means necessary.โ€

Some climate researchers echoed her conclusion that the new report may be a continuation of industry-funded misinformation.  

โ€œMy concern is that Moniz isโ€”and perhaps has been since his time in the administrationโ€”an advocate for polluters over people and the planet,โ€ said Michael Mann, an earth and environmental science professor at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media.ย 

โ€œIt strains credulity to believe this is a coincidence,โ€ Mann said of the reportโ€™s favorable view of natural gas, given its gas-industry funding. โ€œUnfortunately, the old adage โ€˜follow the moneyโ€™ seems quite relevant here.โ€

In addition to his role at EFI, Moniz is an emeritus professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a โ€œspecial advisorโ€ to MIT president Sally Kornbluth.

The EFI Foundation declined to respond publicly to criticisms of the report, and MIT did not respond to a request for comment.

The United States is the worldโ€™s largest exporter of LNG. Additional projects already approved by the Energy Department and not subject to the ongoing pause would triple existing U.S. export capacity. 

The pause followed the pre-release of a study that is still undergoing peer review by Robert Howarth, a professor at Cornell University.ย Howarthโ€™s studyย concluded the climate impact of LNG fuel is worse than burning coal.

Natural gas flares near a community in Colorado. Colorado health officials and some legislators agree that better monitoring is necessary. Photo credit the Environmental Defense Fund.

When burned, natural gas emits roughly half as much carbon dioxide as coal. However, methane, the primary component of natural gas, is a highly potent greenhouse gas, more than 80 times more effective at warming the planet than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. If even a small amount of methane is leaked, vented, or otherwise emitted into the atmosphere before the gas is burnedโ€”as it commonly isโ€”the climate impact of natural gas can be worse than that of other fossil fuels.

Whitehouse challenged the energy security claims in the Moniz report.

โ€œThere is no energy security for American families and businesses when the price of energy is determined by geopolitical events outside our control and by an industry that frequently engages in cartel-pricing,โ€ he said. โ€œTrue energy security will be achieved when we fully transition to renewable energy sources, the โ€˜fuelsโ€™ for whichโ€”wind, sunlight, flowing water, the earthโ€™s heatโ€”are free and not controlled by any one country or cartel.โ€

Nonetheless, the European Commissionโ€™s executive vice president for the European Green Deal, Maroลก ล efฤoviฤ, whose responsibilities include leading the European Commissionโ€™s work on becoming climate-neutral by 2050, praised the Moniz report in a video address shown at the release event.

โ€œNatural gas has a role to play as a transitional fuel, something reflected in the COP28 conclusions,โ€ ล efฤoviฤ said, referring to the 2023 U.N. climate conference in Dubai. โ€œIt will help ensure our energy security and energy equity as our economies decarbonize.โ€ 

โ€œSo with Europe, having taken decisive action to reach net zero by 2050 including by accelerating the clean energy transition, we also recognize the importance of natural gas, notably in the medium term, and LNG in particular will continue to represent a significant source of gas for the EU,โ€ ล efฤoviฤ added.ย 

Funders or โ€œsponsorsโ€ of the report, which was not peer-reviewed, included Chesapeake Energy, one of the largest independent gas producers in the U.S, and U.S. LNG export companies Venture Global LNG and Tellurian. The American Petroleum Institute and three other gas industry organizations or industry PR groups also provided funding.

Additional money came from the Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation, named after the late George P. Mitchell, who is often referred to as the โ€œfather of frackingโ€ for his role in developing the drilling technology known as hydraulic fracturing. The Institute of Energy Economics, a think tank in Japan, the worldโ€™s largest importer of LNG, also provided support.

The report states that the โ€œEFI Foundation maintains editorial independence from its public and private sponsors.โ€ However, more than half of the reportโ€™s โ€œadvisory committeeโ€ was comprised of individuals representing the reportโ€™s funders.

โ€œEFIโ€™s report reinforces more than a decadeโ€™s worth of independent and government-led research that has consistently shown the long-term role of natural gas in the global energy mix and its ability to accelerate global climate progress while strengthening global energy security,โ€ API spokesperson Scott Lauermann said.

Joseph Romm, a researcher also at the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media, said the reportโ€™s โ€œenergy trilemmaโ€ framing that looks at energy security, equity and environmental sustainability downplays the importance of climate change.

โ€œClimate is the overriding issue,โ€ Romm said. โ€œNot that the others arenโ€™t important, but if you donโ€™t do climate, the others donโ€™t matter.โ€

Romm noted that in 2018, the International Energy Agency, a global energy watchdog, concluded that the world could not afford to build any new carbon dioxide emitting projects if the planet were to stay within 2 degrees Celsius of warming, when compared to pre-industrial times. 

Six years later, there is even less room for new fossil fuel developments, Romm said.

The EFI report states that carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is an effective option for reducing CO2 emissions across the natural gas supply chain, even though to date such technology has never been successfully deployed at a commercial level. As the report notes, โ€œthere is no natural gas-fired power plant with CCUS in operation worldwide as of July 2023.โ€

The Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law have provided tax incentives and billions of dollars for large-scale carbon sequestration projects.   

โ€œYou shouldnโ€™t go around telling people that, โ€˜Oh, youโ€™re going to solve whatever your natural gas problem is with carbon capture, utilization and storageโ€™ when there isnโ€™t a single one in operation,โ€ Romm said. โ€œOne has to distinguish between reality and wishful thinking.โ€ [ed. emphasis mine]

The Moniz report also says that LNG shippers have started to offer their customers โ€œcarbon-neutral LNG cargo,โ€ in which emissions from LNG production are offset through the purchasing of carbon credits. 

Carbon offsets have come under increasing scrutiny in recent years as offset projects have failed to live up to their emission reduction claims. Even if the projects offset the emissions of LNG production, there would still be significant emissions when the fuel is burned.

The report acknowledges the climate impact of methane emissions associated with natural gas and says โ€œmethane emissions reductions are also critical.โ€ The report also notes that โ€œthe carbon footprint of natural gas, while lower than some alternatives, must be dramatically reduced furtherโ€ and โ€œovercoming these challenges will ultimately determine whether natural gas is indeed a transitional fuel or an integral part of the long-term global energy mix.โ€

In releasing the report, Moniz said the gas industry โ€œcan do a lot more in terms of having the pause be a pause by taking care of some of the homework that needs to be done,โ€ such as on methane emissions reductions. 

However, the report focuses less on methane emissions and more on the carbon dioxide emissions reductions that can be achieved by switching from coal to gas.

Interested in methane and other greenhouse gas emissions near you? Check out http://climatetrace.org, which allows you to see emissions from oil and gas fields, large individual facilities, and more. You can also break it down by industry.

Whitehouse said the focus on carbon dioxide emissions over methane emissions is misleading, intentional and not new.

โ€œInternal documents obtained in our recent investigation demonstrate that fossil fuel companies knew methane leaks made natural gas just as harmful to the climate as coal but sought to discredit the scientific evidence and paint natural gas as a clean fuel and a crucial part of the energy mix,โ€ Whitehouse said.

One such document obtained through the Congressional investigation was an August 2016 email from Amory Lovins, the cofounder and, at the time, chief scientist for the Rocky Mountain Institute, a clean energy and sustainability research organization now known as RMI. The email was addressed to Rex Tillerson, then the chief executive of ExxonMobil.

Tillerson had just been appointed the chair of the National Petroleum Council, a federal advisory committee to the Secretary of Energy, a position then held by Moniz.

Lovins, who served as an environmental representative on the council, warned Tillerson of increasing methane emissions monitoring by โ€œcitizen activists.โ€ He urged Tillerson, the countryโ€™s leading oil and gas executive, and his industry to โ€œget ahead of that emerging movementโ€ and โ€œfix the leaksโ€ before the โ€œsloppy operators further damage the good firmsโ€™ reputation.โ€

Another record obtained through the Congressional investigation isย a document from Chevron marked โ€œclassified,โ€ย which includes a presentation Lovins gave to the oil and gas companyโ€™s board of directors at a meeting in Pebble Beach, California, in 2018.

In the presentation, Lovins notes that the โ€œ#1 threat to gasโ€ is โ€œmethane โ€˜slip,โ€™โ€ or emissions. Lovins added that โ€œ2.3% of US gas output is now lostโ€ as emissions, making gas โ€œlittle/noโ€ better for the climate than burning coal. Lovins added that LNG is โ€œworseโ€ for the climate than coal.  

LNG has higher greenhouse gas emissions than natural gas due to the energy it takes to liquify and then regasify natural gas, not counting the additional methane emissions that occur during the transport of LNG in ships.

โ€œRMI experts routinely share their independent analysis and research with a variety of stakeholders, and in this case, we presented our understanding of the climate risks of methane to the oil and gas industry, in the hopes that the facts would lead to solutions,โ€ Lovins said in an email. โ€œThe facts presented then and subsequent research from RMI and peers have confirmed that leaks of methane, the main ingredient in natural gas, even at small amounts, make it as bad as or worse than coal for the climate and not necessarily the cleaner alternative it was once thought to be.โ€

Peer-reviewed studies published since 2018 suggest the climate impact of natural gas is worse than previously thought.ย A study published last month in Natureย found that 2.95 percent of U.S. gas output is emitted rather than the 2.3 percent figure Lovins used in 2018. For the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, where much of the natural gas that is exported from the U.S. as LNG originates, emissions are far higherโ€”9.6 percentโ€”according to the Nature study.

Other factors, such as the use of a 20-year rather than 100-year timeframe for measuring the climate impact of methane, can result in an even smaller leak rate, making natural gas worse than coal. A study published last year in Environmental Research Letters by RMI researchers found a โ€œmethane leakage rate as low as 0.2 percent brings a gas systemโ€™s climate risk on par with coal.โ€

For Howarth, the Cornell professor, recent events elicit a sense of dรฉjร  vu. In 2011, Howarth published one of the first studies suggesting the climate impact of natural gas may be worse than coal. 

The same year, Moniz, then the director of the MIT Energy Initiative, was co-chair of a non-peer-reviewed Energy Initiative report funded largely by industry, โ€œThe Future of Natural Gas,โ€ a title nearly identical to the EFI report Moniz and colleagues published this week.

The 2011 report led by Moniz downplayed Howarthโ€™s findings and called for federal policies that โ€œencourage the development of a [global liquid natural gas] market.โ€

โ€œIt feels familiar,โ€ Howarth said of the new โ€œFuture of Natural Gasโ€ report. โ€œShale gas is clearly as bad or worse than coal, no matter what industry funded people want to spin.โ€ 

โ€œAnd even if I were wrong,โ€ Howarth added, โ€œItโ€™s just not the time to be promoting any fossil fuels.โ€

Report on microplastics published by USGS — NGWA

Diagram credit: USGS

Click the link to read the release on the NGWA website:

May 6, 2024

The U.S. Geological Survey published a report on May 2 on the critical topic of microplastics in the environment.

The report titled โ€œIntegrated Science for the Study of Microplastics in the Environment โ€”  A Strategic Science Vision for the U.S. Geological Surveyโ€ is available on the USGS website.

The report which covers microplastics and nanoplastics states โ€œa myriad of environmental exposure pathways to humans including ingestion, inhalation, and bodily absorption, are likely to exist.โ€ It adds there is growing evidence that bioaccumulation of microplastics in tissues and organs of humans can potentially lead to nutritional and reproductive effects.

Current science gaps are mentioned. The report says that โ€œunderstanding if or when environmental exposures pose a health risk is complicated by the diversity of microplastic sizes, morphologies, polymer types, and chemicals added during manufacturing or sorbed from the environment; ongoing challenges in analytical methods used to detect, quantify, and characterize microplastics and associated chemicals in our ecosystems; and the fact that ecotoxicological studies regarding microplastics are still in their infancy.โ€

It also adds that a better understanding of the sources, pathways, fate, and biological effects of microplastics has become a priority of the federal government as well as some state governments.

One of the most cited Groundwaterยฎ papers in recent years is โ€œMicroplastic Contamination in Karst Groundwater Systemsโ€ by Samuel V. Panno et. al. NGWA members can view the complete paper on Wiley Online Library.

The Environmental Protection Agency rejects plan to pump Moneta oilfield waste into potential drinking water — @WyoFile #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

On the Wind River Indian Reservation, Fort Washakie is home to nearly 1,800 people. (Matthew Copeland/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile website (Angus M. Thuermer Jr.):

April 24, 2024

Federal environmental officials have rejected a request by Aethon Energy to pump Moneta Divide oilfield wastewater into the Madison aquifer, saying the deep reservoir could be used for drinking water, especially by tribal nations on the Wind River Indian Reservation.

The Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission in November 2020 approved wastewater disposal into the 15,000-foot deep well, but the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said last week the stateโ€™s decision did not align with federal rules.

Aethonโ€™s plan does not support a finding โ€œthat the aquifer cannot now and will not in the future serve as a source of drinking water,โ€ the EPA wrote in a 20-page record of decision. Aethon argued, and the Wyoming commission agreed 4-1, that the underground Madison formation was too deep and remote to be used for drinking water.

The EPA relied on the Safe Drinking Water Act as the authority under which to protect the aquifer. It also cited climate, environmental justice and tribal interests in its decision, pointing to the nearby Wind River Indian Reservation as a community that could use the water.

โ€œThe significance of that is the EPA finally didnโ€™t wimp out on us,โ€ said Wes Martel, a member of the Wind River Water Resources Control Board. โ€œWeโ€™re just glad they now have some people in place following up on their Indian policy.โ€

The Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho Tribes โ€œforesee increased reliance on groundwater for drinking water purposes and anticipate needing to access deeper aquifers, such as the Madison aquifer, as the climate changes and water resources grow scarcer,โ€ the EPA wrote in a 94-page analysis of tribal interests. The agency cited historic cultural and spiritual ties to the land and water and tribesโ€™ status as sovereign nations in its decision.

โ€œWe have to make sure our future generations have a reliable source of clean water,โ€ Martel said. โ€œOur reservation, this is all we have left. Weโ€™ve got to do our best to protect it.โ€

The Powder River Basin Resource Council, along with the Wyoming Outdoor Council and others, has spent years monitoring discharge reports and industry permits and was vital in challenging pollution threats, Martel said.

The EPA understood that science, and the law did not support Aethonโ€™s request, said Shannon Anderson, organizing director and staff attorney with the resource council. โ€œThey recognized the value of our groundwater resources and the need to protect those into the future,โ€ she said, hailing the decision.

Vast quantities of water

Aethon must find a way to dispose of produced water โ€” a brine pumped from energy wells to release gas and oil โ€” as it expands the Moneta Divide field by 4,500 wells. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management authorized that expansion in 2020, leaving the question of water disposal to Wyoming, which has authority over surface and underground water quality under overarching federal standards.

Aethon must find a way to dispose of the equivalent of 120 Olympic-sized swimming pools full of produced water a day to expand the field. Aethon and Burlington Resources, a co-producer at Moneta, could generate $182 million a year in federal royalties, $87.5 million a year in Wyoming severance taxes and $106 million annually in County Ad Valorem taxes from the expansion.

An elk skull adorns a fencepost near the Eastern Shoshoneโ€™s buffalo management land on the Wind River Indian Reservation. (Katie Klingsporn/WyoFile)

But Aethon has violated state permits that allow it to pump some produced water into Alkali and Badwater creeks that flow into Boysen Reservoir, a drinking water source for the town of Thermopolis. Wyomingโ€™s Department of Environmental Quality has notified the Dallas-based investment company of its infraction and has required Aethon to reduce the salinity of surface discharges this year.

The DEQ this year listed the two creeks as โ€œimpairedโ€ and unable to sustain aquatic life. Underground injection of wastewater into the Madison was to be a new component of the disposal program.

The EPA cited climate change, drought, increasing temperatures and use of reservation surface water by others as some of the reasons to preserve the Madison aquifer.

โ€œRemoving the existing statutory and regulatory protections for a potential source of high-quality drinking water for the rural and overburdened communities in Fremont County and on the WRIR would further exacerbate existing inequities particularly with respect to historic and ongoing adverse and cumulative impacts to water resources and community health,โ€ the EPA wrote.

โ€œThus, equity and environmental justice considerations, which include Tribal interest considerations, support maintaining the existing [Safe Drinking Water Act] protections that apply to the aquifers consistent with Congressional intent to protect both current and potential future sources of drinking water,โ€ EPA documents state.

Neither Aethon nor a representative of the Oil and Gas Conservation Commission responded immediately to a request for comment Wednesday. But WyoFile received this response from Tom Kropatsch, oil and gas supervisor for the Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, shortly after publication:

โ€œWe do not agree with EPAโ€™s decision on this application. We are still reviewing their decision and the information utilized by EPA in support of their decision. Much of this information was not part of the original application or a part of the record. EPA did not follow the standard procedure of allowing the WOGCC and the applicant to review and respond to the additional information they had available prior to making their final decision. EPA evaluated data that differs in its geographic, geologic, engineering, and other technical information. EPA also inappropriately related the proposed injection location to other areas of the state. Since the data EPA reviewed does not accurately reflect the conditions at the location of the proposed disposal well it is not appropriate to rely on it for a decision on this application. The WOGCC is reviewing EPAโ€™s decision and weighing its options for further action.โ€

Wyoming rivers map via Geology.com

#Vermont passes bill to charge #FossilFuel companies for damage from #ClimateChange

This graph shows the globally averaged monthly mean carbon dioxide abundance measured at the Global Monitoring Laboratoryโ€™s global network of air sampling sites since 1980. Data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. Credit: NOAA GML

Click the link to read the article on the NBC News website (Maura Barrettย andย Lucas Thompson). Here’s an excerpt:

May 7, 2024

Vermont lawmakers passed a bill this week that is designed to make big fossil fuel companies pay for damage from weather disasters fueled by climate change. The legislation is modeled after the Environmental Protection Agencyโ€™s superfund program, which requires the companies responsible for environmental contamination to either clean sites up themselves or reimburse the government for the costs of work to do so.ย  Vermontโ€™s bill, referred to as itsย Climate Superfund Act, would similarly mandate that big oil companies and others with high emissions pay for damage caused by global warming.

The amounts owed would be determined based on calculations of the degree to which climate change contributed to extreme weather in Vermont, and how much money those weather disasters cost the state. From there, companiesโ€™ shares of the total would depend on how many metric tons of carbon dioxide each released into the atmosphere from 1995 to 2024. The law passed with just three no votes in Vermontโ€™s state Senate in early April, followed by approval in the state House on Monday. The Senate will deliver a final vote later this week before the bill heads to Republican Gov. Phil Scottโ€™s desk.ย  State Sen. Anne Watson, a co-sponsor of the bill, said she hopes that if the law goes into effect, it pushes big oil companies โ€œto become purveyors of renewable energy sources and keep fossil fuels in the ground.โ€

Governor Jared Polis, lawmakers unveil new oil and gas fee in #climate deal aimed at defusing ballot war: Agreement calls for #Colorado Democrats to abandon four bills aimed at tightening industry regulations — The #Denver Post #ActOnClimate

Oil and gas infrastructure is seen on the Roan Plateau in far western Colorado. (Courtesy of EcoFlight)

Click the link to read the article on The Denver Post website (Seth Klamann and Nick Coltrain). Here’s an excerpt:

April 29. 2024

Leading Colorado Democrats and the stateโ€™s oil and gas industry announced a preemptive armistice Monday โ€” one that seeks to defuse the latest round ofย dueling ballot initiativesย andย legislation aimed at the industryย and its environmental impacts. The proposals, described to reporters by Gov. Jared Polis and legislative leadership, include imposing a new per-barrel production fee on the industry and enacting new environmental standards. In exchange, the industry, lawmakers and several environmental groups agreed to abandon recent attempts at regulatory legislation and ballot initiatives…

A key part of the deal takes the form of two new bills set to be introduced in the coming days โ€” roughly one week before the end of the legislatureโ€™s 2024 session. One bill would institute a fluctuating production fee on oil and gas that is expected to generate roughly $138 million annually, based on returns from recent years. Much of that money would go toward supporting transit in Colorado, potentially including metro Denverโ€™s Regional Transportation District. The state also would set aside a slice to help restore public lands impacted by oil and gas production. The second bill would seek to reduce emissions and improve air quality via new permitting and enforcement authority. It would include funding to plug orphan wells and strategies to help communities that are disproportionately impacted by the oil and gas industry, Polis and legislative leaders said at Mondayโ€™s late-afternoon news conference.

#Wyoming Governor Gordon promises to sue after Environmental Protection Agency moves to slash #coal emissions — @WyoFile #ActOnClimate

Ceremonial shovels mark the location of the Innovation Center coal refinery field demonstration project north of Gillette on Sept. 2, 2022. It will be co-located with Atlas Carbon’s facility that produces activated carbon products. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the aricle on the WyoFile website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

April 26, 2024

Biden administrationโ€™s suite of coal pollution rules a win for climate and health, advocates say, but a major blow to one of Wyomingโ€™s bedrock economic drivers.

Gov. Mark Gordon has promised to sue over a new suite of federal rules that most observers agree will hasten the U.S. thermal coal industryโ€™s trajectory toward extinction โ€” an existential threat to many Wyoming communities and one of the stateโ€™s main economic drivers.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday issued four โ€œfinalโ€ rules aimed at drastically cutting coal pollution, including a mandate that existing coal-fired power plants cut or capture 90% of their planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions by 2032 or convert to natural gas or close altogether. The agencyโ€™s other rules set timelines for significant cuts to smokestack emissions of mercury and other toxic metals, polluted wastewater from coal power plants and more stringent standards for coal ash disposal.

The โ€œpower plantโ€ rules make good on President Joe Bidenโ€™s promise to address human-caused climate change, according to the EPA. The actions are also intended to help curtail illness and premature deaths from coal pollution while providing a clear regulatory framework for utilities to shift to renewable sources of energy.

The agency also noted that it consulted with coal-reliant utilities about their existing plans regarding coal facilities and crafted the implementation schedules to allow for planning that avoids electrical power supply issues.

Gov. Mark Gordon and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan held a joint press conference at the University of Wyoming on August 9, 2023. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

โ€œBy developing these standards in a clear, transparent, inclusive manner, EPA is cutting pollution while ensuring that power companies can make smart investments and continue to deliver reliable electricity for all Americans,โ€ EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said in a prepared statement.

Coal proponents in Wyoming are furious.ย 

This graph shows the globally averaged monthly mean carbon dioxide abundance measured at the Global Monitoring Laboratoryโ€™s global network of air sampling sites since 1980. Data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. Credit: NOAA GML

While the rules target coal-fueled power plants, they also put Wyoming coal mines on notice: Their already waning U.S. customer base has an expiration date.

โ€œIt is clear the only goal envisioned by these rules released by the Environmental Protection Agency today is the end of coal communities in Wyoming,โ€ Gordon said in a prepared statement Thursday. โ€œEPA has weaponized the fear of climate change into a crushing set of rules that will result in an unreliable electric grid, unaffordable electricity and thousands of lost jobs.โ€

The Wyoming Mining Association also discounted climate change as an excuse to attack the coal industry. 

โ€œWyoming is once again the sacrificial lamb on the altar of the climate change cult,โ€ the associationโ€™s Executive Director Travis Deti said. 

The rules

Theย carbon dioxide emissions ruleย applies to coal-fired power plants as well as new natural gas-fired facilities, requiring them to prevent at least 90% of greenhouse gasses from entering the atmosphere.ย 

โ€œExisting coal-fired power plants are the largest source of [greenhouse gas] from the power sector,โ€ the EPA stated in the rule. โ€œNew natural gas-fired combustion turbines are some of the largest new sources of [greenhouse gas] being built today, and these final standards will ensure that they are constructed to minimize their [greenhouse gas] emissions.โ€ 

The rule updating Mercury and Air Toxics Standards tightens emissions by about 70%, an especially significant reduction for plants that burn lignite โ€” a lower-value coal than Wyomingโ€™s subbituminous product โ€” according to the agency.

Coal-fueled power plants will also be required to reduce various โ€œpollutantsโ€ associated with wastewater by more than 660 million pounds annually, and follow more stringent standards to prevent leaks at coal-ash storage facilities.

Implications for Wyoming

Wyoming remains the nationโ€™s largest coal producer, although production has plummeted by nearly half since 2008, with companies shipping some 237 million tons in 2023, according to the Wyoming State Geological Survey. More than 90% of coal mined in the state is sold to power plants in the U.S., which is why itโ€™s often referred to as โ€œthermal coalโ€ โ€” unlike โ€œmetallurgic coalโ€ that is sold to steel manufacturers.

Wyoming coal production has decreased by nearly half since 2008. (University of Wyoming)

Coal mining contributed some $650 million in taxes, royalties and fees to the state in 2019 and employed more than 5,000 workers, according to the Wyoming Mining Association.

The vast majority of coal mining occurs in the Powder River Basin in the northeast corner of the state, while several communities host nearby coal-fired power plants: Gillette, Glenrock, Wheatland, Kemmerer and Rock Springs.

Although Wyoming has experienced declines in both coal production and coal-fired power, the industry still serves as a major economic backbone for the state โ€” and a significant source of government revenue. The potential loss of coal-fired power facilities is an especially daunting prospect for nearby communities.

Those communities have wrestled with the knowledge of potential plant closures for a long time already, and the EPAโ€™s new rules only serve to clarify that potential reality, said Robert Godby, associate professor at the University of Wyomingโ€™s Economics Department.

โ€œIt really just kind of steepens the glide path to what we all knew was happening anyway,โ€ he told WyoFile on Friday.ย 

Explosive materials are loaded into a โ€œblast holeโ€ at a coal mine. (Dyno Nobel)

The new rules are likely to be challenged in court, not only by Wyoming, but also by other coal-reliant states, Godby said. Politics will also continue to play a role โ€” particularly if a Republican wins the presidential election this year. He noted, however, that former President Donald Trump was not able to make good on a promise to turn around the coal industryโ€™s decline.

Regardless, utilities are under increasing pressure to make long-term investment decisions in a quickly changing energy environment, and the EPAโ€™s actions this week diminish the likelihood that theyโ€™ll find the regulatory certainty needed to invest in coal-fueled power.

โ€œIt makes it more likely theyโ€™re going to retire [coal plants] and announce firm dates,โ€ Godby said. โ€œThatโ€™s going to create more certainty for the communities that are affected.โ€

Meantime, Gordon, who has touted technologies to reduce carbon dioxide from coal power plants, has vowed to fight the rules.

โ€œThese rules are a travesty, and their effects are devastating,โ€ Gordon said. โ€œI have directed the Wyoming Attorney General to engage with and lead a coalition of states to challenge the power plant emissions rule, and we are prepared to apply our litigation strategy to the oncoming wave of federal regulatory actions that threaten Wyoming.โ€

The University of Wyoming’s School of Energy Resources, and its partners, are advancing multiple CO2 capture and sequestration demonstration projects at Basin Electric’s Dry Fork Station north of Gillette, seen here on Sept. 2, 2022. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Newย EPA rules will force fossil fuel power plants to cut pollution

by Robert Zullo, Utah News Dispatch
April 25, 2024

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday released a sweeping set of rules aimed at cutting air, water and land pollution from fossil fuel-fired power plants.

Environmental and clean energy groups celebrated the announcement as long overdue, particularly for coal-burning power plants, which have saddled hundreds of communities across the country with dirty air and hundreds of millions of tons of toxic coal ash waste. The ash has leached a host of toxins โ€“ including arsenic, mercury, lead, cadmium, radium and other pollutants โ€“ into ground and surface water.

โ€œToday is the culmination of years of advocacy for common-sense safeguards that will have a direct impact on communities long forced to suffer in the shadow of the dirtiest power plants in the country,โ€ said Ben Jealous, executive director of the Sierra Club, one of the nationโ€™s oldest and largest environmental organizations. โ€œIt is also a major step forward in our movementโ€™s fight to decarbonize the electric sector and help avoid the worst impacts of climate change.โ€

But some electric industry and pro-coal organizations blasted the rules as a threat to jobs and electric reliability at a time when power demands are surging. They also criticized the ruleโ€™s reliance on largely unproven carbon capture technologies.

Americaโ€™s Power, a trade organization for the nationโ€™s fleet of about 400 coal power plants across 42 states, called the number of new rules โ€œunprecedented,โ€ singling out the new emissions standards that will force existing coal plants to cut their carbon emissions by 90% by the 2032 if they intend to keep running past 2039.  Michelle Bloodworth, the groupโ€™s president and CEO, called the rule โ€œan extreme and unlawful overreach that endangers Americaโ€™s supply of dependable and affordable electricity.โ€

The Pennsylvania Coal Alliance, a nonprofit organization representing Pennsylvania coal mining companies, called the new rule โ€œa haphazard and dangerous threat to our gridโ€™s electricity supply, national security and our economy,โ€ in a news release.

โ€˜This forces thatโ€™

Many experts expect the regulations to be litigated, particularly the carbon rule, since the last time the EPA tried to restrict carbon emissions from power plants, a group of states led by West Virginia mounted a successful legal challenge that went to the U.S. Supreme Court.

But Julie McNamara, deputy policy director with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the agency took great pains to conform the rule to the legal constraints outlined by the court.

โ€œThis rule is specifically responsive to that Supreme Court decision,โ€ she said. โ€œWhich doesnโ€™t mean that it wonโ€™t go to the courts but this is so carefully hewn to that decision that it should be robust.โ€

The four rules EPA released Thursday mainly target coal-fired power plants.

โ€œBy developing these standards in a clear, transparent, inclusive manner, EPA is cutting pollution while ensuring that power companies can make smart investments and continue to deliver reliable electricity for all Americans,โ€ EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said.

In some ways, they attach a framework to a sea change in electric generation that is already well under way, McNamara said.

Coal accounted for just 16% of U.S. electric generation in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In 1990, by comparison, it comprised more than 54% of power generation. However, some states are more reliant on coal power than others.

In 2021, the most coal-dependent states were West Virginia, Missouri, Wyoming and Kentucky, per a 2022 report by  the EIA.

โ€œThis rulemaking adds structure to that transition,โ€ McNamara said. โ€œFor those who have chosen not to assess the future use of their coal plants, this forces that.โ€

The same EIA report found that Ohio and Pennsylvania had the largest declines in coal-fired capacity over the past two decades. Both states shifted from coal to natural gas as their largest source of electricity over that period.

Heather Oโ€™Neill, president and CEO of the clean energy trade group Advanced Energy United, said the new regulations are a chance for utilities to embrace cheaper, cleaner and more reliable options for the electric grid.

โ€œInstead of looking to build new gas plants or prolong the life of old coal plants, utilities should be taking advantage of the cheaper, cleaner, and more trusty tools in the toolbox,โ€ she said.

The carbon rule 

In 2009, the EPA concluded that greenhouse gas emissions โ€œendanger our nationโ€™s public health and welfare,โ€ the agency wrote, adding that since that time, โ€œthe evidence of the harms posed by GHG emissions has only grown and Americans experience the destructive and worsening effects of climate change every day.โ€

The new carbon emissions regulation will apply to existing coal plants and new natural gas plants. Coal plants that plan to operate beyond 2039 will have to capture 90% of their carbon emissions by 2032. New gas plants are split into three categories based on their capacity factor, a measure of how much electricity is generated over a period of time relative to the maximum amount it could have produced.

The plants that run the most (more than 40% capacity factor) will have to capture 90% of their carbon emissions by 2032. Existing gas plants will be regulated under a forthcoming rule that โ€œmore comprehensively addresses GHG emissions from this portion of the fleet,โ€ the agency said.

Michelle Solomon, a senior policy analyst for Energy Innovation, an energy and climate policy think tank, predicts that most coal plants will close rather than install the costly technology to capture carbon emissions.

โ€œClimate goals aside, the public health impacts of the rules in securing the retirement of coal fired power plants is so important,โ€ she said. Coal power in the U.S. has been increasingly pressured by cheaper gas and renewable generation and mounting environmental restrictions, but some grid operators have still been caught flat-footed by the pace of coal plant closures.

โ€œI think the role of this rule, to provide that certainty about where weโ€™re going, is so crucial to get the entities that have control over the rate of the transition to start to take action here,โ€ she said. But the National Rural Electric Cooperative Associationโ€™s CEO, Jim Matheson, called the rules โ€œunlawful, unrealistic and unachievableโ€ noting that it relies on technology โ€œthat is not ready for prime time.โ€

And Todd Snitchler, president and CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association, a trade group for competitive power suppliers, called the rule โ€œa painful example of aspirational policy outpacing physical and operational realitiesโ€ because of its reliance on unproven carbon capture and hydrogen blending technologies to cut emissions.

A beefed up Mercury and Air Toxic Standards rule

The EPA called the revision to the Mercury and Air Toxic Standards  โ€œthe most significant update since MATS was first issued in February 2012.โ€ It predicted the rule would cut emissions of mercury and other air pollutants like nickel, arsenic, lead, soot, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and others. It cuts the mercury limit by 70% for power plants fired by lignite coal, which is the lowest grade of coal and one of the dirtiest to burn for power generation.

For all coal plants, the emissions limit for toxic metals is reduced by 67%. The EPA says the rule will result in major cuts in releases of mercury and other hazardous metals, fine particulate matter, nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide.  The agency projects โ€œ$300 million in health benefits,โ€ including reducing risks of heart attacks, cancer and developmental delays in children and $130 million in climate benefits.

Stronger wastewater discharge limits for power plants

Coal fired power plants use huge volumes of water, and when the wastewater is returned to lakes, rivers and streams it can be laden with mercury, arsenic and other metals as well as bromide, chloride and other pollution and contaminate drinking water and harm aquatic life.

The new rule is projected to cut about 670 million pounds of pollutants discharged in wastewater from coal plants per year. Plants that will cease coal combustion over the next decade can abide by less stringent rules.

โ€œPower plants for far too long have been able to get away with treating our waterways like an open sewer,โ€ said Thomas Cmar, a senior attorney at Earthjustice, a nonprofit environmental law organization, during a briefing on the new rules earlier this week.

Closing a coal ash loophole 

Coal ash, whatโ€™s left after coal has been burned for power generation, is one the nationโ€™s largest waste streams. The 2015 EPA Coal Combustion Residuals rule were the first federal regulations for coal ash. But that rule left about half of the ash sitting at power plant sites and other locations โ€“ much of it in unlined disposal pits โ€“ unregulated because it did not apply to so-called โ€œlegacy impoundmentsโ€ that were not being used to accept new ash.

โ€œWeโ€™re going to see a long-awaited crackdown on coal ash pollution from Americaโ€™s coal plants, and itโ€™ll be a huge win for Americaโ€™s health and water resources,โ€ said Lisa Evans, a senior attorney with Earthjustice. โ€œThey are all likely leaking toxic chemicals like arsenic into groundwater and most contain levels of radioactivity that can be dangerous to human health.โ€

Groundwater monitoring data shows that the vast majority of ash ponds at coal plants are contaminating groundwater, said Abel Russ, a senior attorney with the Environmental Integrity Project. Butunder the old rule, Russ said, facilities could dodge cleanup requirements by blaming contamination on older ash dumps not covered by the regulation.

โ€œThis is a huge loophole,โ€ Russ said. โ€œYou canโ€™t restore groundwater quality if youโ€™re only addressing half of the coal ash sources on site.โ€

However, several attorneys on the Earthjustice briefing said the new rules, which will require monitoring at clean up and hundreds of more ash sites, will only be as good as the enforcement.

โ€œItโ€™s meaningful only if these utilities obey the law. Unfortunately to date, many of them have not,โ€ said Frank Holleman, a senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center.

Utah News Dispatch is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Utah News Dispatch maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor McKenzie Romero for questions: info@utahnewsdispatch.com. Follow Utah News Dispatch on Facebook and Twitter.

#Wyoming stakeholders nudge feds in opposing directions on sage grouse #conservation plan — @WyoFile

Sunrise Ceremony

The courtship ritual performed by the sage-grouse, the icon of western North Americaโ€™s sagebrush plains, is one of natureโ€™s most dramatic. Males woo hens at display sites, called leks, fanning their tails and inflating their breast sacs. For decades, The Nature Conservancty has worked with ranchers and energy and mining companies to protect the grouseโ€™s stage in the sage. GREATER SAGE-GROUSE ยฉ Charlie Hamilton James

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

April 26, 2024

Embracing the stateโ€™s decades of collaboration, federal officials have found more agreement than outrage in response to a pending plan to protect the iconic western bird.

As home to about 38% of the planetโ€™s remaining greater sage grouse โ€” far more than any other state or province โ€” and the architect of key conservation measures, Wyoming has a lot to gain or lose from upcoming changes to the complex, multi-agency matrix of rules and regulations governing management of the imperiled bird and its habitat. 

Those stakes were top of mind Wednesday evening for Natrona County rancher Doug Cooper and others who attended a BLM information session on the agencyโ€™s recently released draft management plan for sage grouse habitat

โ€œWhen you say โ€˜conservation,โ€™ it sounds wonderful,โ€ Cooper said. โ€œBut Iโ€™m not sure โ€˜conservationโ€™ is going to mean just that when we get down on the ground.โ€

Similar questions bubbled up for the dozen residents trying to make sense of the latest developments in what has been a whipsaw of approaches between Republican and Democratic administrations. Does the pending plan account for sage grouse predation from ravens and magpies? Is livestock grazing considered a harmful practice that might come under new restrictions in sage grouse habitats? And how might restrictions on federal lands impact grazing and oil and gas development on adjacent private property?

Natrona County rancher Doug Cooper poses a question to Bureau of Land Management officials April 24, 2024 in Casper. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Not only is the birdโ€™s future at stake, but it serves as an indicator for 350 other species that rely on a sprawling sage-steppe ecosystem that also supports rural economies in Wyoming and throughout much of the West. If the sage grouse is in peril, so are myriad other species and rural economies, according to proponents. The future of the species and its habitat also has major implications for the oil and gas industry, which frequently targets minerals underlying the sage grouseโ€™s habitat in Wyoming. 

The agency is soliciting public comments through June 13 on itsย draft environmental impact statement. After weighing that input, the BLM will issue a final rule for how it will manage sage grouse habitat in 10 western states, including the speciesโ€™ stronghold in Wyoming.

โ€œIt is extremely important to get your guysโ€™ feedback and ideas on how this plan can be improved,โ€ BLM Wyoming Sage Grouse Coordinator Matt Holloran said.

Holloran, a wildlife biologist who has led myriad sage grouse studies, explained that the draft plan includes several aspects of the agencyโ€™s 2015 and 2019 plans while incorporating new scientific data and accounting for mounting pressures on the birdโ€™s habitat from climate change, invasive plant species and wildfire.

The draft plan includes six alternative approaches, ranging from very stringent conservation measures to no change in current management. The BLMโ€™s โ€œpreferredโ€ option is Alternative 5, which mostly aligns with Wyomingโ€™s own evolving management strategies implemented by executive order under recent governors.

Bureau of Land Management Wyoming Sage Grouse Coordinator Matt Holloran (right) visits with a Natrona County resident April 24, 2024 in Casper. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

That alignment with state policy has likely contributed to stakeholders across the spectrum in Wyoming expressing cautious, but caveated, optimism since the BLM published the draft plan in March

Sage grouse conservation in Wyoming

The BLM manages 18 million surface acres and about 43 million acres of subsurface minerals in Wyoming. Although the agency does not manage wildlife, it does manage wildlife habitats, giving it an outsized influence on the stateโ€™s bedrock energy, recreation, wildlife and agriculture industries.

When conservation groups in the early 2000s sounded alarms about declining sage grouse populations, state leaders sprung into action fearing economy-endangering federal action, including a potential listing under the Endangered Species Act. Wyoming has earned accolades since for being the first state to voluntarily take on greater sage grouse protections โ€” both a proactive drive for conservation and in defense of ongoing agriculture and oil and gas development.

In some instances, the stateโ€™s protections go further than the federal governmentโ€™s, including a maximum 5% disturbance threshold for industrial activity in sage grouse โ€œcore areas.โ€ So far, Wyoming is the only western state with a disturbance threshold that also takes wildfire impacts into account.

How the 5% calculation is made, however, is important. Some critics have alleged that some core area boundaries are simply made larger to allow for more disturbance.

The gubernatorial-appointed Sage Grouse Implementation Team is considering adding tens of thousands of acres of protective โ€œcore area,โ€ along with some retractions, to the state map. Proposed changes are outlined here. (Sage Grouse Implementation Team)

So far, the BLM management strategies align with Wyomingโ€™s, which are prescribed in its sage grouse core areas plan and overseen by the Sage-Grouse Implementation Team.

Following Wyomingโ€™s lead, the BLM proposes to maintain livestock grazing within core areas โ€” mostly considered an insignificant impact and, in some cases, beneficial to sage grouse, according to state and federal documents. Although the BLMโ€™s preferred alternative doesnโ€™t include major changes to grazing, it does further define poor grazing practices that would be restricted in sage grouse management areas, according to local BLM officials.

Stakeholder responses

Oil and gas industry officials in Wyoming have tentatively expressed hope for a workable federal approach to conserving sage grouse and its habitat. Notably, the BLMโ€™s preferred alternative does not include new leasing restrictions for oil and gas.

Conservation groups, however, want the BLM to include the use of a special wildlife habitat designation โ€”ย Areas of Critical Environmental Concernย โ€” which would prohibit industrial activities. They point to a 2021ย U.S. Geological Survey studyย that shows sage grouse populations have declined 80% throughout the West since 1965, and that even with recent conservation measures the speciesโ€™ population is still expected to decline.

Responding to a question Wednesday, the BLMโ€™s Holloran said the agency takes the speciesโ€™ cyclical population into account. โ€œWhat you see is those lows keep getting lower and the highs are not as high,โ€ he said.

The Petroleum Association of Wyoming says it will push back against calls to include stringent habitat designations such as Areas of Critical Environmental Concern.

โ€œAlternative 5 is the best option presented, but there is still work to be done,โ€ PAW Vice President Ryan McConnaughey told WyoFile via email. โ€œWe appreciate the BLMโ€™s willingness to take a measured approach and will work through the comment process to share our concerns.โ€

Reached for comment, Gov. Mark Gordonโ€™s office referred to earlier statements regarding the BLMโ€™s draft plan.

โ€œWhile more analysis of this is needed,โ€ Gordon said in March, โ€œthe first pass shows the BLM picked a preferred alternative that will allow for detailed comments that specifically [address] Wyomingโ€™s  concerns, including that the preferred alternative does not propose Areas of Critical Environmental Concern (ACEC) on top of our state identified core areas.โ€

Visit this BLM website for more information regarding the draft plan and how to comment.

Greater sage grouse range map via the USFWS.

Is Biden a public-lands protector?ย 

by Jonathan Thompson, High Country News
April 25, 2024

Welcome to the Landline, a monthly newsletter from High Country News about land, water, wildlife, climate and conservation in the Western United States.  Sign up to get it in your inbox.

On March 27, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland signed an order withdrawing nearly 222,000 acres of federal land in western Coloradoโ€™s Thompson Divide area from future mining claims and oil and gas leases. The protected area includes aspen forests, alpine ridges, piรฑon-juniper-dotted mesas and high-country meadows โ€” diverse habitat that is home to an array of big game species and other wildlife. It stretches from Glenwood Springs to Crested Butte and over to Paonia, home of High Country Newsโ€™ headquarters.

The move was a big deal for the eclectic ensemble of local ranchers, environmentalists and recreational users who had spent the last two decades fighting proposed mining and fossil fuel development in the area. It solidified a decade-old ban on new oil and gas leases while also driving a nail into the coffin of a thwarted bid to mine molybdenum on the โ€œRed Lady,โ€ a wildflower-strewn mountain outside Crested Butte.

The Thompson Divide protections cover just one-tenth of 1% of the land administered by the Bureau of Land Management. So a cynic might see this temporary withdrawal โ€” it expires in 2044 โ€” as little more than a mildly consequential attempt by President Joe Biden to further differentiate himself from his Republican rival and perhaps regain the support of voters disillusioned by his administrationโ€™s failure to end or significantly curtail fossil fuel development on public lands.

Zoom out a bit, though, and a much different picture reveals itself: The Thompson Divide withdrawal, like the Chaco region leasing ban, is merely one piece in a far larger policy puzzle. Taken alone, theyโ€™re not terribly significant. But the whole is far greater than the sum of the parts: Itโ€™s the most significant shift in public-land management since Congress passed the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976, which mandated multiple use and sought to rid the BLM of its reputation as the โ€œBureau of Livestock and Mining,โ€ in the process rocking the Western political landscape and sparking the Sagebrush Rebellion.

Marcelina Mountain in the Raggeds Wilderness is seen from Gunnison National Forestโ€™s Horse Ranch Park trail, Colorado. A portion of the scene is part of a withdrawal of nearly 222,000 acres of federal lands in Coloradoโ€™s Thompson Divide area from future mining claims and oil and gas leases.

The administration has issued so many public-lands-related orders, rules and protections over the last several weeks that Iโ€™ve had a tough time keeping up. Tracking the environmentalistsโ€™ fluctuating responses โ€” along with the growing outrage from Republican officials โ€” has been downright exhausting, and at times exasperating. The recent acts include:

The BLM finalized its methane waste prevention rule on March 27, requiring operators on public lands to find and repair leaks and to reduce flaring and venting of the potent greenhouse gas. Each year, oil and gas facilities on federal land lose about 44.2 billion cubic feet of methane โ€” i.e., natural gas โ€” and other associated gases to venting and flaring alone. This equates to burning 2.7 million tons of coal, and it also robs American taxpayers of as much as $32 million per year in lost royalties. The rule will not only require drillers to capture or reuse methane when feasible, it will also charge royalties on wasted gas, bringing in tens of millions of dollars annually in additional revenue.

The administration blocked new oil and gas leases on 13 million acres โ€” or just over half โ€” of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. The move is a bittersweet victory for environmentalists; it doesnโ€™t affect the gargantuan Willow Project, which the Biden administration approved last year, or any other active leases in the reserve. Alaska Republicans slammed Biden nonetheless, calling his action an โ€œillegalโ€ blow and a โ€œone-two punchโ€ to the stateโ€™s economy.

The administration revoked a Trump-era approval for the proposed 211-mile Ambler industrial road through northwestern Alaska wilderness, saying it would violate environmental laws and harm wildlife and Indigenous subsistence hunters. The road would give mining companies access to a massive copper deposit buried beneath ecologically sensitive lands.

The Biden administration also blocked new mining claims and oil and gas leases on 4,200 acres of federal land near Placitas, New Mexico, for the next 50 years. The Pueblos of San Felipe and Santa Ana consider the land in question sacred.  

The administration finalized rules raising royalty rates and reclamation bonding amounts for oil and gas drilling on federal land. Environmentalists welcomed the new rules, which mark one of the most significant changes to the Mineral Leasing Act since it became law in 1920. However, some argued that they did not go far enough to reduce hydrocarbon production โ€” or reduce the resulting emissions โ€” from public lands. And a ProPublica/Capital & Main investigation found that the new bonding amounts, which were based on flawed math, would not be nearly enough to cover the actual costs of cleaning up all the wells. Meanwhile, New Mexicoโ€™s oil and gas industry, which has enjoyed record-high profits in recent years, whined: โ€œThe new anti-oil and gas development policies will substantially handcuff production opportunities for small producers.โ€

The Biden administration just blocked new oil and gas leases on over half of Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve.

Probably the most intense reactions โ€” of both elation and anger โ€” came in response to last weekโ€™s finalization of the public-lands rule, designed to put conservation on a par with oil and gas development, grazing and other extractive uses. The rule directs the agency to prioritize landscape health and creates a mechanism enabling outside entities to lease public land for restoration projects, much as a rancher or oil and gas company might lease BLM land. It also allows firms to lease land for mitigation work to offset impacts from development elsewhere on public lands, and it clarifies the process for designating areas of critical environmental concern, or ACECs, where land managers can add extra regulations to protect cultural or natural resources. And it directs the agency to incorporate Indigenous knowledge into decision-making, particularly when considering ACECs.

Environmentalists lauded the decision. In a written statement, Wilderness Society President Jamie Williams called it a โ€œgeneration-defining shift in how we manage our shared resources.โ€ It was met by an equally fervent but entirely opposite response from conservative lawmakers. Rep. Lauren Boebert, a Colorado Republican, denounced it as a โ€œland grabโ€ that would โ€œend federal grazingโ€ and block access to public lands โ€” a misguided worry that was echoed by a variety of her GOP colleagues.

Both responses are likely to prove excessive. The rule doesnโ€™t add any new restrictions or put any public land off-limits to development, nor does it give greens the power to expel a legitimate drilling, mining or grazing operation in order to do a restoration project. It simply provides new tools to help the BLM uphold the multiple-use charge that Congress mandated nearly 50 years ago, before the agency went astray during the Reagan and successive Bush administrations. And Boebertโ€™s notion that it will hurt grazing is especially off-base: While Biden has occasionally stood up to the oil industry, he has done nothing to reform public-lands grazing policy, much to conservationistsโ€™ dismay.

Again, taken on its own, the new rule is hardly radical or revolutionary. But combined with the administrationโ€™s other actions โ€” from significantly reducing the amount of land leased to oil and gas companies, to restricting energy development via resource management plans, to establishing new and restoring shrunken national monuments โ€” it begins to amount to something important.  At long last, a coherent โ€” if imperfect โ€” public-lands climate policy has begun to take shape.

This article first appeared on High Country News and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

A flurry of public land protections: Biden’s rushing to get new rules in place, just in case โ€ฆ — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org)

Beeweed and pumpjack. San Juan Basin, New Mexico. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

The public lands beat has been rather busy, to put it mildly, as the Biden administration rushes to finalize rules, orders, and protections as soon as possible to make them less vulnerable to being rolled back if Biden were to lose in November to, ummm, a more hostile candidate. Maybe Bidenโ€™s also working to more clearly distinguish himself on environmental issues from Trump in advance of the election โ€” as if the stark contrast isnโ€™t abundantly clear already. 

So much has happened that Iโ€™ve fallen behind. So forget the pre-amble, letโ€™s get to it:

In late March, the Bureau of Land Management finalized its methane waste prevention rule, which requires oil and gas operators on federal lands to find and repair leaks in their infrastructure and to phase out flaring and venting of methane โ€” a.k.a. natural gas. The rules complement the EPAโ€™s similar regulations finalized earlier this year. 

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, having about 86 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over the near-term (methane in the atmosphere breaks down into carbon dioxide and water over the long-term). While methane โ€” which occurs alongside oil in underground reservoirs โ€” can be captured and marketed as natural gas, oil drillers tend to vent or flare it and other associated gases, since it isnโ€™t as profitable as oil.ย 

Flaring and venting of methane and other gases shot up after horizontal drilling-multistage hydraulic fracturing opened up vast new stores of oil. Source: Bureau of Land Management.

Between 2010 and 2020, after the โ€œfrackingโ€-enabled shale revolution got underway, oil and gas operations on federal and tribal land vented and flared an average of 44.2 billion cubic feet of methane annually. Thatโ€™s as bad for the climate as burning around 9 million tons of coal. And since operators donโ€™t pay royalties on gas they throw away,  that cost American taxpayers some $166 million in lost revenue over a decade. 

The rules look to rein that in by gradually decreasing the maximum amount of methane that can be flared or vented and charging royalties on the gases that are wasted. It is expected to slash greenhouse gas emissions and result in about $50 million annually in added royalty revenue.ย 

Methane Madness: Part IJonathan P. Thompson

***

A few days later, the administration finalized its ban on new oil and gas leases and mining claims on about 220,000 acres along Western Coloradoโ€™s Thompson Divide. The protections cover a stretch of high-country BLM and USFS land between Glenwood Springs, Crested Butte, and Somerset. It does not affect valid, existing leases or claims. 

In the early 2000s an eclectic group of environmentalists, ranchers, and recreational users banded together to protect the Divide from the growing threat of oil and gas development. Their efforts goaded the feds to halt new development and cancel existing leases on much of the acreage, long before this springโ€™s move. Meanwhile, a similar uprising in the Crested Butte area blocked a proposed molybdenum mine on Mt. Emmons, or the Red Lady. 

The administrationโ€™s withdrawal bolsters these efforts and blocks new development for the next 20 years. By then, one would hope, the administrationโ€™s demand-side efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption โ€” including encouraging clean energy development and pushing zero-emission cars โ€” will have kicked in.ย 

***

And Biden and Interior Secretary Deb Haaland raised royalty rates and reclamation bonding amounts for oil and gas drilling on federal land. This one was a long-time coming. The previous 12.5% royalty rate has remained unchanged since Congress passed the Mineral Leasing Act in 1920. And oil and gas drillers have been getting away with posting bonds for all of their wells in a state that donโ€™t get anywhere near covering the cost of cleaning up a single well. 

Environmentalists welcomed the reforms, but also criticized them for failing to address climate impacts of oil and gas development on public lands. Oh, and then thereโ€™s the thing about the faulty math: Mark Olalde and Nick Bowlin, for ProPublica and Capital & Main, found that even the new bonding amounts wouldnโ€™t cover clean up. The problem? A BLM staffer miscalculated the cost to plug and reclaim a single well, and the inaccurate figure got incorporated into the analysis and final rule. Whoops. 

***

The administration blocked new oil and gas leases on 13 million acres of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. Thatโ€™s a huge amount of land and especially remarkable given that itโ€™s in a petroleum reserve and itโ€™s likely to result in some 50% less greenhouse gas emissions than Trumpโ€™s plan for the same area. Still, it may not be enough for the climate hawks who remain livid over the administrationโ€™s approval of a scaled-back, but still gargantuan, Willow (a.k.a. โ€œcarbon bombโ€) drilling project in the reserve. Meanwhile, Bidenโ€™s Willow approval is not enough to soothe the anger of Alaskaโ€™s congressional delegation โ€” including Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola โ€” who blasted Biden for ignoring Alaskaโ€™s love for fossil fuels and called it an โ€œillegalโ€ move that dealt a โ€œone-two punchโ€ to the stateโ€™s economy. You just canโ€™t win for losing, can you? 

***ย 

Light and texture. Big Gypsum Valley, Colorado. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

And last, but certainly not least: The Bureau of Land Management finalized its public lands rule, designed to put conservation on a par with oil and gas development, grazing, and other extractive uses.

The ruleโ€™s main provisions include:ย 

  • It directs the agency to prioritize landscape health in all decision making, which is what itโ€™s already supposed to do when assessing grazing allotments. It hasnโ€™t done a very good job at that, so far.ย 
  • It creates a mechanism for outside entities โ€” states, tribes, or nonprofits โ€” to lease public land for restoration projects โ€” much as a rancher or oil and gas company might lease BLM land.ย 
  • It allows firms to lease land for mitigation work to offset impacts from development elsewhere.ย 
  • It clarifies the process for designating areas of critical environmental concern, or ACECs, where land managers can add extra regulations to protect cultural or natural resources.ย 
  • And it directs the agency to incorporate Indigenous knowledge into decision-making, particularly when considering ACECs.ย 

The rule is being hailed by conservationists as a โ€œgeneration-defining shiftโ€ in public land management, and lambasted by Sagebrush Rebel-wannabes as a โ€œmisguided land grab meant to prevent oil and gas production โ€ฆ <and> โ€ฆ an attack on our ranchers and farmers that will end grazing on federal lands and will also prevent Coloradans from accessing their public lands.โ€ (A gold star to whoever guesses which MAGA-loving congress member made the latter grossly misinformed quote!).

Honestly, Iโ€™m not sure either sideโ€™s hoohas are warranted. Itโ€™s hard to see how a couple new leasing categories will be generation defining, I kinda doubt the rules will affect oil and gas production, and Iโ€™m absolutely certain they wonโ€™t end grazing or otherwise block access to public lands. 

The rule doesnโ€™t add any new restrictions or put any land off-limits to development. It doesnโ€™t give greens the power to kick a legitimate drilling, mining or grazing operation off public land to do a restoration or mitigation project. The mitigation leases could actually facilitate energy development. As for grazing, the Biden administration has indicated it considers ranching to be a type of land conservation, a theory that is manifested in the BLMโ€™s policy of veering away from public lands grazing reform. Grazing is allowed in most ACECs. And the agency just set the 2024 grazing fee at $1.35 per animal unit month, the minimum Congress allows. I think the cows and their ranchers will be just fine under this new rule.

It seems to me that this ruleโ€™s provisions are fairly open to interpretation. That means the actual implementation โ€” and how it plays out on the ground โ€” will depend largely on BLM state, regional, and field-office managers. And those local-level bureaucrats can be swayed by the prevailing attitudes of the communities where they live and work, and by pressure from local or state officials.ย 

In the end, the rule is essentially a reminder to the BLM that their job is not just to bend over for corporate and extractive interests, but to actually care for the land that belongs to all Americans. It is simply reinforcing the multiple-use charge Congress set forth when it passed the Federal Lands Policy and Management Act back in 1976. Itโ€™s not that big of a deal. But then again, FLPMA helped spark the Sagebrush Rebellion in the late 1970s. So who knows what this rule might inspire now…

๐Ÿ“ธ Parting Shot ๐ŸŽž๏ธ

Eagles in a tree near Norwood, Colorado. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

How much water remains in southeast #Coloradoโ€™s aquifers?: Colorado legislative committee approves many millions for water projects in Colorado โ€” including $250,000 for a study crucial for Baca County — Allen Best (@BigPivots) #OgallalaAquifer #RepublicanRiver #RioGrande

Corn in Baca County. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

Unanimous votes in the Colorado Legislature are rare, but they do happen. Consider HB24-1435, the funding for the Colorado Water Conservation Board projects.

The big duffle bag of funding for various projects was approved 13-0 by the Senate Water and Agriculture Resources Committee. It had bipartisan sponsors, including Rep. Marc Catlin, a former water district official from Montrose.

โ€œColorado has been a leader in water for a long, long time, and this is bill is an opportunity for us to stay in that leadership position,โ€ said Catlin, a Republican and a co-sponsor.

โ€œThis is one of my favorite bills,โ€ said Rep. Karen McCormick, a Democrat from Longmont and former veterinarian. She is also a co-sponsor.

This historical photo shows the penstocks of the Shoshone power plant above the Colorado River. A coalition led by the Colorado River District is seeking to purchase the water rights associated with the plant. Credit: Library of Congress photo

The bill has some very big-ticket items, including $20 million for the Shoshone power plant agreement between Western Slope interests and Public Service Co. of Colorado, better known by its parent company, Xcel Energy. Andy Mueller, the general manager of the Glenwood Springs-based Colorado River District, called the effort to keep the water in the river โ€œincredibly importantโ€ to those who make a living in the Colorado River Basin.

This map shows the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River near Grand Junction, home to four species of endangered fish. Map credit: CWCB

Mueller also pointed out that keeping water in the river will benefit of four endangered species of fish that inhabit what is called the 15-mile stretch of the Colorado River near Grand Junction.

Another $2 million was appropriated for the turf-replacement program in cities, a program first funded in 2022. Another mid-range item is telemetry for Snotel sites, to keep track of snow depths, the better to predict runoff. It is to get $1.8 million.

Among the smallest items in the budget is a big one for Baca County, in Coloradoโ€™s southeast corner. The bill, if adopted, would provide the Colorado Water Conservation Board with $250,000 to be used to evaluate the remaining water in aquifers underlying southeastern Colorado. There, near the communities of Springfield and Walsh, some wells long ago exhausted the Ogallala aquifer and have gone deeper into lower aquifers, in a few cases exhausting those, too. Farmers in other areas continue to pump with only modest declines.

What exactly is the status of the underground water there? How many more decades can the agricultural economy dependent upon water from the aquifers continue? The area is well aside from the Arkansas River or other sources of snowmelt.

A study by the McLaughlin Group in 2002 delivered numbers that are sobering. Wes McKinley, a former state legislator from Walsh, at a meeting in February covered by the Plainsman Herald of Springfield, said the McLaughlin study numbers show that 84% of the water has been extracted. That study suggested 50-some years of water remaining. If correct, that leaves 34 years of water today.

Tim Hume, the areaโ€™s representation on the Colorado Groundwater Commission, has emphasized that he believes this new study will be needed to accurately determine how water should be managed.

How soon will this study proceed? asked Rep. Ty Winter, a Republican from Trinidad who represents southeastern Colorado. Tracy Kosloff, the deputy director of the Colorado Division of Water Resources, answered that the technical analysis should begin sometime after July. โ€œI would think it is reasonable to finish it up by the end of 2025, but that is just an educated guess.โ€

She said the state would work with the Baca County community to come up with a common goal and direction โ€œabout how they want to manage their resources.โ€

Ogallala Aquifer groundwater withdrawal rates (fresh water, all sources) by county in 2000. Source: National Atlas. By Kbh3rd – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6079001

Unlike the Republican River area of northeastern Colorado, where farmers also have been plunging wells into the Ogallala and other aquifers, this area of southeastern Colorado has no native river. In the Republican Basin, Colorado is trying to remove 25,000 acres from irrigation by the end of 2029 in order to leave more water to move into the Republican River.ย See story. A similar proposition is underway in the San Luis Valley, where farmers have also extensively tapped the underground aquifers that are tributary to the Rio Grande.ย See story.

San Luis Valley Groundwater

The closest to critical questioning of the bill came from Rep. Richard Holtorf, a Republican who represents many of the farming counties of northeastern Colorado. He questioned the $2 million allocated to the Office of the Attorney General.

He was told that $1 million of that constantly replenishing fund is allocated to the Colorado River, $110,000 for the Republican River, $459,000 for the Rio Grande, $35,000 for the Arkansas and $200,000 for the South Platte.

Then thereโ€™s the litigation with Nebraska about the proposed ditch that would begin in Colorado near Julesburg but deliver water to Nebraskaโ€™s Perkins County. Colorado hotly disputes that plan.

Lauren Ris, the director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, said Colorado is โ€œvery confident in our legal strategy.โ€

Holtorf also noted that the severance tax provides 25% of the funding for the water operations. The severance tax comes from fossil fuel development. As Colorado moves to renewable energy, โ€œwhat happens to this Colorado water if we kill the goose that lays the golden egg?โ€

Ris replied said future declines in the severance tax is a conversation underway among many agencies in Colorado state government.

The South Platte Hotel building that sits at the Two Forks site, where the North and South forks of the South Platte River come together. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism

#Colorado Department of Natural Resources Produced Water Consortium Submits First Report: Best Practices for In-field Recycling and Reuse of Produced Water Report

Click the link to read the release on the DNR website:

(DENVER) -The Colorado Produced Water Consortium, an initiative within the Department of Natural Resources, released its first legislative deliverable, the Initial Guidance Documents and Case Studies to Promote Best Practices for In-field Recycling and Reuse of Produced Water Report

โ€œI am proud to see the collaborative work of the newly developed Colorado Produced Water Consortium begin to bear fruit with the development of the Initial Guidance Documents and Case Studies to Promote Best Practices for In-Field Recycling and Reuse of Produced Water Report. The engagement, diversity of views, and expertise of the whole of the Consortium was utilized in the development of this report, which will continue to evolve as more technology, case studies, and research are incorporated in the future as we continue to implement HB23-1242 and explore ways to reduce the amount of freshwater used and increase the amount of reuse and recycling of produced water used in oil and gas operations across the state,โ€ said Consortium Chair John Messner.

The Consortium collaboratively developed this synthesis report by identifying and reviewing over 130 research journal articles, best practices, and case studies. Key themes that promote best practices for in-field recycling and reuse of produced water throughout the state emerged from the review and will be used to inform the Consortiumโ€™s future recommendations. Given the ongoing and evolving nature of produced water research, the library of references is expected to grow over time.

โ€œI congratulate the Consortium in submitting their first deliverable to the Colorado legislature and for working hard to bring together the expertise of a diverse set of stakeholders,” said Dan Gibbs, Executive Director, Colorado Department of Natural Resources. โ€œThis first report builds the expertise of Coloradoโ€™s policy makers and the public on produced water. I look forward to the Consortiumโ€™s continued work to inform produced water policy.โ€

The Colorado Produced Water Consortium was established in the Department of Natural Resources byย HB23-1242 to help reduce the consumption of freshwater within oil and gas operations. The Consortium’s responsibilities also include making recommendations towards developing an informed path for reuse and recycling of produced water inside and potentially outside of oil and gas operations within the state and identifying measures to address barriers associated with the use of produced water.

The Consortium consists of 31 members representing state and federal agencies, research institutions, environmental groups, industry, local governments, environmental justice groups, and disproportionately impacted communities.

The full report is available online:ย  Initial Guidance Documents and Case Studies to Promote Best Practices for In-field Recycling and Reuse of Produced Water Report.

This is all just a part of a natural cycle, right? — @KHayhoe #ActOnClimate

All this worry about warming when itโ€™s just a natural cycle. The climate is always changing and todayโ€™s no different — right? Global Weirding is produced by KTTZ Texas Tech Public Media and distributed by PBS Digital Studios. New episodes every other Wednesday at 10 am central. Brought to you in part by: Bob and Linda Herscher, Freese and Nichols, Inc, and the Texas Tech Climate Science Center.

No sign of greenhouse gases increases slowing in 2023 — NOAA #ActOnClimate

Greenhouse-gas monitoring equipment. Credit: Lauren Lipuma

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website (Theo Stein):

Levels of the three most important human-caused greenhouse gases โ€“ carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide โ€“ continued their steady climb during 2023, according to NOAA scientists. 

While the rise in the three heat-trapping gases recorded in the air samples collected by NOAAโ€™s Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) in 2023 was not quite as high as the record jumps observed in recent years, they were in line with the steep increases observed during the past decade. 

โ€œNOAAโ€™s long-term air sampling program is essential for tracking causes of climate change and for supporting the U.S. efforts to establish an integrated national greenhouse gas measuring, monitoring and information system,โ€ said GML Director Vanda Grubiลกiฤ‡. โ€œAs these numbers show, we still have a lot of work to do to make meaningful progress in reducing the amount of greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere.โ€ย 

The global surface concentration of CO2, averaged across all 12 months of 2023, was 419.3 parts per million (ppm), an increase of 2.8 ppm during the year. This was the 12th consecutive year CO2ย increased by more than 2 ppm, extendingย the highest sustained rateย of CO2ย increases during the 65-year monitoring record. Three consecutive years of CO2ย ย growth of 2 ppm or more had not been seen in NOAAโ€™s monitoring records prior to 2014. Atmospheric CO2ย is now more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels.

This graph shows the globally averaged monthly mean carbon dioxide abundance measured at the Global Monitoring Laboratoryโ€™s global network of air sampling sites since 1980. Data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. Credit: NOAA GML

โ€œThe 2023 increase is the third-largest in the past decade, likely a result of an ongoing increase of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, coupled with increased fire emissions possibly as a result of the transition from La Nina to El Nino,โ€ said Xin Lan, a CIRES scientist who leads GMLโ€™s effort to synthesize data from the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network for tracking global greenhouse gas trends.

Atmospheric methane, less abundant than CO2ย but more potent at trapping heat in the atmosphere, rose to an average of 1922.6 parts per billion (ppb). The 2023 methane increase over 2022 was 10.9 ppb, lower than the record growth rates seen in 2020 (15.2 ppb), 2021(18 ppb)ย  and 2022 (13.2 ppb), but still the 5th highest since renewed methane growth started in 2007. Methane levels in the atmosphere are now more than 160% higher than their pre-industrial level.

This graph shows globally-averaged, monthly mean atmospheric methane abundance determined from marine surface sites for the full NOAA time-series starting in 1983. Values for the last year are preliminary, pending recalibrations of standard gases and other quality control steps. Credit: NOAA GM

In 2023, levels of nitrous oxide, the third-most significant human-caused greenhouse gas, climbed by 1 ppb to 336.7 ppb. The two years of highest growth since 2000 occurred in 2020 (1.3 ppb) and 2021 (1.3 ppb). Increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide during recent decades are mainly from use of nitrogen fertilizer and manure from the expansion and intensification of agriculture. Nitrous oxide concentrations are 25% higher than the pre-industrial level of 270 ppb.

Taking the pulse of the planet one sample at a time
NOAAโ€™s Global Monitoring Laboratory collected more than 15,000 air samples from monitoring stations around the world in 2023 and analyzed them in its state-of-the-art laboratory in Boulder,

Colorado. Each spring, NOAA scientists release preliminary calculations of the global average levels of these three primary long-lived greenhouse gases observed during the previous year to track their abundance, determine emissions and sinks, and understand carbon cycle feedbacks.

Measurements are obtained from air samples collected from sites in NOAAโ€™sย Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, which includes about 53 cooperative sampling sites around the world, 20 tall tower sites, and routine aircraft operation sites from North America.ย 

Carbon dioxide emissions remain the biggest problem 

By far the mostย important contributor to climate changeย is CO2ย , which is primarily emitted by burning of fossil fuels. Human-caused CO2ย pollution increased from 10.9 billion tons per year in the 1960s โ€“ which is when the measurements at theย Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaiiย began โ€“ to about 36.8 billion tons per year in 2023. This sets a new record, according to theย Global Carbon Project, which uses NOAAโ€™sย Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Networkย measurements to define the net impact of global carbon emissions and sinks.

This graph shows annual mean growth rates of carbon dioxide based on globally averaged marine surface data. Decadal averages of the growth rate are plotted as horizontal lines. Credit: NOAA GML

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere today is comparable to where it was around 4.3 million years ago during the mid-Pliocene epoch, when sea level was about 75 feet higher than today, the average temperature was 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than in pre-industrial times, and large forests occupied areas of the Arctic that are now tundra. 

About half of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to date have been absorbed at the Earthโ€™s surface, divided roughly equally between oceans and land ecosystems, including grasslands and forests. The CO2 absorbed by the worldโ€™s oceans contributes to ocean acidification, which is causing a fundamental change in the chemistry of the ocean, with impacts to marine life and the people who depend on them. The oceans have also absorbed an estimated 90% of the excess heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases. 

Research continues to point to microbial sources for rising methane

NOAAโ€™s measurements show that atmospheric methane increased rapidly during the 1980s, nearly stabilized in the late-1990s and early 2000s, then resumed a rapid rise in 2007. 

Aย 2022 studyย by NOAA and NASA scientists and additionalย NOAA research in 2023ย suggests that more than 85% of the increase from 2006 to 2021 was due to increased microbial emissions generated by livestock, agriculture, human and agricultural waste, wetlands and other aquatic sources. The rest of the increase was attributed to increased fossil fuel emissions.ย 

โ€œIn addition to the record high methane growth in 2020-2022, we also observed sharp changes in the isotope composition of the methane that indicates an even more dominant role of microbial emission increase,โ€ said Lan. The exact causes of the recent increase in methane are not yet fully known. 

NOAA scientists are investigating the possibility that climate change is causing wetlands to give off increasing methane emissions in a feedback loop. 

To learn more about the Global Monitoring Laboratoryโ€™s greenhouse gas monitoring, visit: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/.

Media Contact: Theo Stein, theo.stein@noaa.gov, 303-819-7409

Audubon: New Rule for #FossilFuel Development on Federal Lands Long Overdue #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Great Sage-Grouse. Photo: Evan Barrientos/Audubon Rockies

Click the link to read the release on the Audubon website (Jason Howe):

(Washington, DC-April 12, 2024) โ€“ The U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) today announced a rule updating the cost of doing business on public lands and helping to balance the extraction of natural resources with the conservation of wildlife habitat and the preservation of landscapes sacred to Indigenous peoples.  

In addition to siting oil and gas development away from wildlife habitat and cultural  resources, the new regulations increase fees โ€“ including royalty and rental rates, and minimum bids associated with oil and gas development โ€“ bringing them in line with what many states require; and reduce so-called โ€œspeculative leasingโ€, where companies hold leases on land with little potential for development. 

The BLM manages 245 million acres, nearly 40 percent of U.S. public lands. The agency is charged with balancing the protection of Americaโ€™s natural legacy with managing the 30 percent of the nationโ€™s mineral wealth that lies beneath the surface. But over the past 50 years, the agency has mainly focused on extractive uses (coal, and oil and gas), applying rules governing that extraction that have been unchanged for decades. An estimated 300 bird species spend at least part of their lives there, including Burrowing Owls and the Greater Sage-Grouse, which is already under stress across much of its range.

“When BLM oil and gas leasing policy was last updated, Gerald Ford was in the White House, the Bee Gees were on the radio and a gallon of gas cost an average of 59 cents,” said Christopher Simmons, senior manager of public lands policy for the National Audubon Society. “The BLMโ€™s approach to oil and gas leasing has been the equivalent of a polyester leisure suit โ€“ painfully outdated. This is a big step forward towards the BLM fulfilling its mission, delivering common-sense policies that balance responsible development with land and wildlife conservation.” 

For decades, oil and gas policies prioritized development on public lands over activities like hunting, fishing, birding, hiking, grazing and restoration. When oil and gas companies left behind a mess on public lands, American taxpayers were previously forced to foot the bill. Before todayโ€™s update, taxpayers could have been responsible forย as much as $15 billionย in clean-up costs.ย 

Greater sage grouse range map via the USFWS.

A classic comeback for Old Man Winter — The #Aspen Daily News

Click the link to read the article on The Aspen Daily News website (Scott Condon). Here’s an excerpt:

April 10, 2024

The snowpack for the Aspen-area mountains was about 46% below the 30-year median after a dry November and was about 35% below in December, according to Sam Collentine, a Basalt-based chief operating officer and meteorologist forย OpenSnow.com. Conditions improved slightly in January when the snowpack ended up 3% above the 30-year median for the month, despite a dry stretch for a good share of the month. Conditions finally flipped in February, when the snowpack was 20% above median, and especially in March, which ended at plus 74%…The season started with a lot of promise with two big snowstorms in October that established an impressive base. But, as is typical for Colorado, conditions dried out in November and into December…

Snowmass collected 94.6 inches of snow in March, or 172% of normal. Aspen Mountain recorded just shy of 86 inches or 175% of normal, according to Aspen Weather…OpenSnowโ€™s Collentine took a look for snowfall at the Aspen-Snowmass ski areas for Oct. 1 into early April and found Aspen Highlands nosed out Snowmass with 312 inches to 310 inches. Highlands finished the season at 105% of the 30-year median while Snowmass was at 101%. Aspen Mountain recorded 257 inches or 107% of median while Buttermilk was at 161 inches and 106%…

As a whole, the Roaring Fork basinโ€™s snowpack was at 115% of median on Tuesday. Collentine noted that conditions around Aspen were similar to those in the Upper Colorado River Basin and the state as a whole. The Upper Colorado Basin, which the Roaring Fork is part of, is at 106% of the 30-year median and the statewide snowpack is at 108%.

#Colorado lawmakers applaud 20-year pause on Thompson Divide oil and gas drilling — Colorado Newsline

Screenshot from the Thompson Divide Coalition website: https://www.thompsondivide.org

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Newsline website (Chase Woodruff):

April 3, 2024

Colorado lawmakers on Wednesday hailed the announcement by federal officials that 220,000 acres of national forest land on Coloradoโ€™s Western Slope will be protected from oil and gas development and mining for at least the next 20 years.

The U.S. Interior Department confirmed that it would withdraw the Thompson Divide area near Crested Butte from federal mineral leasing, following an 18-month review process and more than a decade of advocacy by local conservationists and Colorado officials.

โ€œThis announcement is a testament to the persistence of Coloradoโ€™s farmers, ranchers, hunters, anglers, recreationists, wildlife enthusiasts, and conservation groups, who were unrelenting in their work to protect the landscape we all love,โ€ Bennet, a Democrat who has long championed the move, said in a press release.

โ€œThe Thompson Divide area is a treasured landscape, valued for its wildlife habitat, clean air and water, and abundant recreation, ecological and scenic values,โ€ said U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland. โ€œThe Biden-Harris administration is committed to ensuring that special places like these are protected for future generations.โ€

Prohibiting mineral leasing in the Thompson Divide area is one component of the Colorado Outdoor Recreation and Economy Act, a public lands package championed by Democrats in the stateโ€™s congressional delegation since 2019. With the bill stalled by Republican opposition, President Joe Biden in 2022 moved to implement several CORE Act provisions through executive action, including the designation of the Camp Haleโ€“Continental Divide National Monument near Leadville.

While oil and gas trade groups opposed the move, a U.S. Forest Service assessment last year found the impact on the industry would be negligible, while โ€œthe proposed action would protect the agricultural, ranching, wildlife, air quality, recreation, ecological, and scenic values of the Thompson Divide area for both intrinsic and economic value to local communities.โ€

The withdrawal order applies to nearly 200,000 acres of in the White River and Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison national forests, in addition to 20,000 acres of public land administered by the Bureau of Land Management. The Federal Land Policy and Management Act authorizes the Interior Department to order such withdrawals for a maximum of 20 years.

The CORE Act, which Colorado Democrats have reintroduced for a third time in Congress, still aims to make the withdrawal permanent. The bill stands little chance of being passed by the Republican-controlled House, where GOP lawmakers including Rep. Lauren Boebert of Windsor have called it a โ€œ400,000-acre land grab.โ€

But a long list of local elected officials and conservation advocates say Wednesdayโ€™s announcement has been a long time coming.

โ€œWe have worked for almost two decades to secure meaningful protection for the Divide, with ranchers, hunters, anglers, mountain bikers, off road vehicle users, and environmentalists coming together in an unlikely alliance to preserve the current uses of these lands,โ€ Jason Sewell, a rancher and president of the Thompson Divide Coalition, said in a statement. โ€œWhile we will continue to advocate for permanent protections for the Thompson Divide as afforded in the CORE Act, we could not be more thrilled to know that this landscape will continue for the next 20 years to provide the recreational opportunities, jobs, and wildlife habitat that it has for generations.โ€

U.S. Senators John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet Cheer Final Rule to Curb Harmful #Methane Leaks from Public Lands #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Interested in methane and other greenhouse gas emissions near you? Check out http://climatetrace.org, which allows you to see emissions from oil and gas fields, large individual facilities, and more. You can also break it down by industry.

Click the link to read the release on Senator Hickenlooper’s website:

March 27, 2024

Final rule established after Hickenlooper and Bennet pushed federal government to follow Coloradoโ€™s lead

WASHINGTON โ€“ Today, U.S. Senators John Hickenlooper and Michael Bennet applauded the announcement of a final rule from the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) that will reduce methane emissions from the production of oil and gas on federal and Tribal lands, conserving billions of cubic feet of gas that might otherwise have been vented, flared, or leaked.

โ€œColorado has led the way in reducing methane emissions. Taking basic steps to cut harmful emissions will go a long way to slowing climate change and keep pollutants out of our atmosphere. Now, the rest of the country will follow Coloradoโ€™s lead so we can meet our climate goals,โ€ said Hickenlooper. 

โ€œColorado has led the nation in limiting methane emissions from the oil and gas industry, and has long recognized the harm caused by routine venting and flaring. These practices waste valuable natural resources, risk the health of surrounding communities, and pollute the environment,โ€ said Bennet. โ€œIโ€™m glad BLM followed our stateโ€™s example and is taking steps to cut down on these wasteful practices on our public and Tribal lands.โ€

The final rule comes after Hickenlooper and Bennet urged the agency last year to follow Coloradoโ€™s lead by eliminating routine venting and flaring from oil and gas operations on public and Tribal lands. This final rule will conserve billions of cubic feet of gas and keep harmful methane emissions from entering our atmosphere, while generating more than $50 million in additional natural gas royalty payments each year. This conserved gas will be available to power American homes and industries.

Routine flaring is the practice of regularly burning off excess gas during oil and gas production and processing as a waste product; venting allows excess gas to escape directly into the atmosphere without burning it. Methane, a harmful climate pollutant many more times more potent than carbon dioxide, can be released into the atmosphere in pollution from flaring and venting. Human-caused methane emissions are responsible for at least 25 percent of the climate warming we are experiencing today. 

As governor, Hickenlooper brought together environmentalists and the oil industry to create the worldโ€™s first methane regulations. Those regulations were used by President Obama as a model for national standards which in turn were used as a basis for the international methane pledge in 2021.

Hickenlooper and Bennet have consistently worked to cut methane emissions and strengthen federal oil and gas methane rules, modeled on Coloradoโ€™s. In 2021, Hickenlooper and Bennet led members of the Colorado congressional delegation to push the EPA for stronger methane regulations for the oil and gas sector. Last year, the senators urged the EPA to use data from innovative monitoring technologies like satellite imaging, and tighten restrictions on routine flaring to strengthen methane emission standards. In November, the senators urged the EPA to more accurately track methane emissions. In January, Hickenlooper celebrated the announcement of a conditional commitment from the Department of Energy for up to $189 million in loan guarantees from the Inflation Reduction Act to support the fabrication and installation of a real time methane emissions monitoring network across Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, North Dakota, and New Mexico. 

#Colorado joins multi-state coalition to defend EPA #methane rule — Colorado Politics #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Interested in methane and other greenhouse gas emissions near you? Check out http://climatetrace.org, which allows you to see emissions from oil and gas fields, large individual facilities, and more. You can also break it down by industry.

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Politics website (Scott Weiser). Here’s an excerpt:

Battle lines have been drawn in a fight between oil-producing red states and environmentally-driven blue states over a new regulation by the Environmental Protection Agency…Led by the attorneys general of Texas and Oklahoma, 26 states are suing the EPA over a final rule published March 8 that, in part, sets new regulations for existing methane infrastructure. Twenty other states, including Colorado and the District of Columbia, filed a motion to intervene in the case in support of the new federal regulation Tuesday…

Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser said the new rule must be defended in a Monday news release announcing the state’s intervention in the Texas case.

โ€œThese protections must remain in place at the federal level for effective oversight of methane emissions from surrounding states; thatโ€™s why we are committed to defending the federal methane rule,โ€ Weiser said in the release…

The new rule from the EPA regulates methane emissions from both new sources and existing infrastructure, something the EPA has never done before. This raises the question of whether the EPA has legal authority to expand its statutory mandate without asking Congress for permission. The โ€œmajor questionsโ€ doctrine states that federal agencies must have explicit permission to newly regulate politically and economically significant issues, rather than assuming they have unbridled regulatory authority.

Misplaced Trust: Stolen Indigenous land is the foundation of the land-grant university system. #ClimateChange is its legacy — Grist

Eliseu Cavalcante / Grist

Click the link to read the article on the Grist website (Tristan Ahtone, Robert Lee, Amanda Tachine, An Garagiola, and Audrianna Goodwin):

February 7, 2024

This project was supported by the Pulitzer Center, the Data-Driven Reporting Project, and the Bay & Paul Foundation.

Alina Sierra needs $6,405. In 2022, the 19-year-old Tohono Oโ€™odham student was accepted to the University of Arizona, her dream school. She would be the first in her family to go to college.

Her godfather used to take her to the universityโ€™s campus when she was a child, and their excursions could include a stop at the turtle pond or lunch at the student union. Her grandfather also encouraged her, saying: โ€œYouโ€™re going to be here one day.โ€

โ€œEver since then,โ€ said Sierra. โ€œI wanted to go.โ€

Then the financial reality set in. Unable to afford housing either on or off campus, she couch-surfed her first semester. Barely able to pay for meals, she turned to the campus food pantry for hygiene products. โ€œOne week I would get soap; another week, get shampoo,โ€ she said. Without reliable access to the internet, and with health issues and a long bus commute, her grades began to slip. She was soon on academic probation.

โ€œI always knew it would be expensive,โ€ said Sierra. โ€œI just didnโ€™t know it would be this expensive.โ€

Alina Sierra poses for a photo while wearing a locket containing the ashes of her godfather. โ€œHe would tell me, like, โ€˜Further your education, education is power,’โ€ she said. โ€œBefore he passed away, I promised him that I was going to go to college and graduate from U of A.โ€ Bean Yazzie / Grist

She was also confused. The university, known as UArizona, or more colloquially as U of A by local residents and alumni, expressed a lot of support for Indigenous students. It wasnโ€™t just that the Tohono Oโ€™odham flag hung in the bookstore or that the university had a land acknowledgment reminding the community that the Tucson campus was on Oโ€™odham and Yaqui homelands. The same year she was accepted, UArizona launched a program to cover tuition and mandatory fees for undergraduates from all 22 Indigenous nations in the state. President Robert C. Robbins described the new Arizona Native Scholars Grant as a step toward fulfilling the schoolโ€™s land-grant mission. 

Sierra was eligible for the grant, but it didnโ€™t cover everything. After all the application forms and paperwork, she was still left with a balance of thousands of dollars. She had no choice but to take out a loan, which she kept a secret from her family, especially her mom. โ€œThatโ€™s the number one thing she told me: โ€˜Donโ€™t get a loan,โ€™ but I kind of had to.โ€

Cacti grow behind a sign for the University of Arizona. Bean Yazzie / Grist

Established in 1885, almost 30 years before Arizona was a state, UArizona was one of 52 land-grant universities supported by the Morrill Act. Signed into law by President Abraham Lincoln, the act used land taken from Indigenous nations to fund a network of colleges across the fledgling United States. 

By the early 20th century, grants issued under the Morrill Act had produced the modern equivalent of a half a billion dollars for land-grant institutions from the redistribution of nearly 11 million acres of Indigenous lands. While most land-grant universities ignore this colonial legacy, UArizonaโ€™s Native scholars program appeared to be an effort to exorcise it. 

But the Morrill Act is only one piece of legislation that connects land expropriated from Indigenous communities to these universities. 

In combination with other land-grant laws, UArizona still retains rights to nearly 689,000 acres of land โ€” an area more than twice the size of Los Angeles. The university also has rights to another 705,000 subsurface acres, a term pertaining to oil, gas, minerals, and other resources underground. Known asย trust lands, these expropriated Indigenous territories are held and managed by the state for the schoolโ€™s continued benefit.

A parcel of land in Willcox, Arizona, granted to the University of Arizona. Eliseu Cavalcante / Grist

State trust lands just might be one of the best-kept public secrets in America: They exist in 21 Western and Midwestern states, totaling more than 500 million surface and subsurface acres. Those two categories, surface and subsurface, have to be kept separate because they donโ€™t always overlap. What few have bothered to ask is just how many of those acres are funding higher education.

The parcels themselves are scattered and rural, typically uninhabited and seldom marked. Most appear undeveloped and blend in seamlessly with surrounding landscapes. That is, when they donโ€™t have something like logging underway or a frack pad in sight.

In 2022, the year Sierra enrolled, UArizonaโ€™s state trust lands provided the institution $7.7 million โ€” enough to have paid the full cost of attendance for more than half of every Native undergraduate at the Tucson campus that same year. But providing free attendance to anyone is an unlikely scenario, as the school works to rein in a budget shortfall of nearly $240 million.

UArizonaโ€™s reliance on state trust land for revenue not only contradicts its commitment to recognize past injustices regarding stolen Indigenous lands, but also threatens its climate commitments. The school has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2040. 

The parcels are managed by the Arizona State Land Department, a separate government agency that has leased portions of them to agriculture, grazing, and commercial activities. But extractive industries make up a major portion of the trust land portfolio. Of the 705,000 subsurface acres that benefit UArizona, almost 645,000 are earmarked for oil and gas production. The lands were taken from at least 10 Indigenous nations, almost all of which were seized by executive order or congressional action in the wake of warfare. 

Over the past year, Grist has examined publicly available data to locate trust lands associated with land-grant universities seeded by the Morrill Act. We found 14 universities that matched this criteria. In the process, we identified their original sources and analyzed their ongoing uses. In all, we located and mapped more than 8.36 million surface and subsurface acres taken from 123 Indigenous nations. This land currently produces income for those institutions.

โ€œUniversities continue to benefit from colonization,โ€ said Sharon Stein, an assistant professor of higher education at the University of British Columbia and a climate researcher. โ€œItโ€™s not just a historical fact; the actual income of the institution is subsidized by this ongoing dispossession.โ€

Indigenous landgranted to universities

The amount of acreage under management for land-grant universities varies widely, from as little as 15,000 acres aboveground in North Dakota to more than 2.1 million belowground in Texas. Combined, Indigenous nations were paid approximately $4.7 million in todayโ€™s dollars for these lands, but in many cases, nothing was paid at all. In 2022 alone, these trust lands generated more than $2.2 billion for their schools. Between 2018 and 2022, the lands produced almost $6.7 billion. However, those figures are likely an undercount as multiple state agencies did not return requests to confirm amounts.

This work builds upon previous investigations that examined how land grabs capitalized and transformed the U.S. university system. The new data reveals how state trust lands continue to transfer wealth from Indigenous nations to land-grant universities more than a century after the original Morrill Act.

It also provides insight into the relationship between colonialism, higher education, and climate change in the Western United States. 

Nearly 25 percent of land-grant university trust lands are designated for either fossil fuel production or the mining of minerals, like coal and iron-rich taconite. Grazing is permitted on about a third of the land, or approximately 2.8 million surface acres. Those parcels are often coupled with subsurface rights, which means oil and gas extraction can occur underneath cattle operations, themselves often a major source of methane emissions. Timber, agriculture, and infrastructure leases โ€” for roads or pipelines, for instance โ€” make up much of the remaining acreage. 

By contrast, renewable energy production is permitted on roughly one-quarter of 1 percent of the land in our dataset. Conservation covers an even more meager 0.15 percent.

However, those land use statistics are likely undercounts due to the different ways states record activities. Many state agencies we contacted for this story had incomplete public information on how land was used. 

โ€œPeople generally are not eager to confront their own complicity in colonialism and climate change,โ€ said Stein. โ€œBut we also have to recognize, for instance, myself as a white settler, that we are part of that system, that we are benefiting from that system, that we are actively reproducing that system every day.โ€

Students like Alina Sierra struggle to pay for education at a university built on her peoplesโ€™ lands and supported with their natural resources. But both current and future generations will have to live with the way trust lands are used to subsidize land-grant universities. 

In December 2023, Sierra decided the cost to attend UArizona was too high and dropped out. 

UArizona did not respond to a request for comment on this story.

Acreage now held in trust by states for land-grant universities is part of Americaโ€™s sweeping history of real estate creation, a history rooted in Indigenous dispossession. 

Trust lands in most states were clipped from the more than 1.8 billion acres that were once part of the United Statesโ€™ public domain โ€” territory claimed, colonized, and redistributed in a process that began in the 18th century and continues today.

The making of the public domain is the stuff of textbook lessons on U.S. expansion. After consolidating statesโ€™ western land claims in the aftermath of the American Revolution, federal officials obtained a series of massive territorial acquisitions from rival imperial powers. No doubt youโ€™ve heard of a few of these deals: They ranged from the  Louisiana Purchase of 1803 to the Alaska Purchase of 1867. 

Backed by the doctrine of discovery, a legal principle with religious roots that justified the seizure of lands around the world by Europeans, U.S. claims to Indigenous territories were initially little more than projections of jurisdiction. They asserted an exclusive right to steal from Indigenous nations, divide the territory into new states, and carve it up into private property. Although Pope Francis repudiated the Catholic Churchโ€™s association with the doctrine in 2023, it remains a bedrock principle of U.S. law.

Native land loss 1776 to 1930. Credit: Alvin Chang/Ranjani Chakraborty

Starting in the 1780s, federal authorities began aggressively taking Native land before surveying and selling parcels to new owners. Treaties were the preferred instrument, accompanied by a range of executive orders and congressional acts. Behind their tidy legal language and token payments lay actual or threatened violence, or the use of debts or dire conditions, such as starvation, to coerce signatures from Indigenous peoples and compel relocation. 

By the 1930s, tribal landholdings in the form of reservations covered less than 2 percent of the United States. Most were located in places with few natural resources and more sensitive to climate change than their original homelands. When reservations proved more valuable than expected, due to the discovery of oil, for instance, outcomes could be even worse, as viewers of Killers of the Flower Moon learned last year.   

The public domain once covered three-fourths of what is today the United States. Federal authorities still retain about 30 percent of this reservoir of plundered land, most conspicuously as national parks, but also as military bases, national forests, grazing land, and more. The rest, nearly 1.3 billion acres, has been redistributed to new owners through myriad laws.

A waste pond on a land-grant parcel in Carlsbad, New Mexico. Eliseu Cavalcante / Grist

When it came to redistribution, grants of various stripes were more common than land sales. Individuals and corporate grantees โ€” think homesteaders or railroads โ€” were prominent recipients, but in terms of sheer acreage given, they trailed a third group: state governments. 

Federal-to-state grants were immense. Cram them all together and they would comfortably cover all of Western Europe. Despite their size and ongoing financial significance, they have never attracted much attention outside of state offices and agencies responsible for managing them.

The Morrill Act, one of the best known examples of federal-to-state grants, followed a well-established path for funding state institutions. This involved handing Indigenous land to state legislatures so agencies could then manage those lands on behalf of specifically chosen beneficiaries.  

Many other laws subsidized higher education by issuing grants to state or territorial governments in a similar way. The biggest of those bounties came through so-called โ€œenabling actsโ€ that authorized U.S. territories to graduate to statehood. 

Every new state carved out of the public domain in the contiguous United States received land grants for public institutions through their enabling acts. These grants functioned like dowries for joining the Union and funded a variety of public works and state services ranging from penitentiaries to fish hatcheries. Their main function, however, was subsidizing education.

Since time immemorial, Indigenous peoples have lived with, and cared for, the lands they call home. But as settlers moved west, U.S. government and military officials forced those communities from their lands, sometimes through the signing of treaties, sometimes through military action. Once ceded, those lands became territories and then states. With statehood, those lands became part of America’s real estate system.

Lands inside newly formed states were overlaid with the Public Land Survey System โ€” a rectangular survey system designed by early colonists to map newly acquired Indigenous lands. One 6-by-6 mile square on the grid is known as a township. Inside each township are 36 more 1-by-1 mile squares called sections.

In most states, sections 16 and 36 of every township were automatically set aside to fund K-12 schools, known as common schools at the time. From the remaining 34 sections, states could choose which lands would benefit other public institutions, like hospitals, penitentiaries, and universities.

In the years since statehood, some of these lands have been sold or swapped, but most Western states have held onto their trust lands. Spread across the Western U.S. land grid, trust lands are often unseen, landlocked, and anonymous on the landscape.

Primary and secondary schools, or K-12 schools, were the greatest beneficiaries by far, followed by institutions of higher education. What remains of them today are referred to as trust lands. โ€œA perpetual, multigenerational land trust for the support of the Beneficiaries and future generationsโ€ is how the Arizona State Land Department describes them.

Higher education grants were earmarked for universities, teachers colleges, mining schools, scientific schools, and agricultural colleges, the latter being the means through which states that joined the Union after 1862 got their Morrill Act shares. States could separate or consolidate their benefits as they saw fit, which resulted in many grants becoming attached to Morrill Act colleges.  

Originally, the land was intended to be sold to raise capital for trust funds. By the late 19th century, however, stricter requirements on sales and a more conscientious pursuit of long-term gains reduced sales in favor of short-term leasing. 

The change in management strategy paid off. Many state land trusts have been operating for more than a century. In that time, they have generated rents from agriculture, grazing, and recreation. As soon as they were able, managers moved into natural resource extraction, permitting oil wells, logging, mining, and fracking. 

Land use decisions are typically made by state land agencies or lawmakers. Of the six land-grant institutions that responded to requests for comment on this investigation, those that referenced their trust lands deferred to state agencies, making clear that they had no control over permitted activities.

Credit: Grist

State agencies likewise receive and distribute the income. As money comes in, it is either delivered directly to beneficiaries or, more commonly, diverted to permanent state trust funds, which invest the proceeds and make scheduled payouts to support select public services and institutions. 

These trusts have a fiduciary obligation to generate profit for institutions, not minimize environmental damage. Although some of the permitted activities are renewable and low-impact, others are quietly stripping the land. All of them fill public coffers with proceeds derived from ill-gotten resources.

For a $10 fee last December, anyone in New Mexico could chop down a Christmas tree in a pine stand on a patch of state trust land just off Highway 120 near Black Lake, southeast of Taos. The rules: Pay your fee, bring your permit, choose a tree, and leave nothing behind but a stump less than 6 inches high.

โ€œThe holidays are a time we should be enjoying our loved ones, not worrying about the cost of providing a memorable experience for our kids,โ€ said Commissioner of Public Lands Stephanie Garcia Richard, adding that โ€œthe nominal fee it costs for a permit will directly benefit New Mexico public schools, so it supports a good cause too.โ€ The offer has been popular enough to keep the program running for several years.

The New Mexico State Land Office, sometimes described by state legislators as โ€œthe most powerful office youโ€™ve never heard of,โ€ has been a successful operation for a very long time. Since it started reporting revenue in 1900, itโ€™s generated well over $42 billion in 2023 dollars.

All that money isnโ€™t from Christmas trees.

For generations, oil and gas royalties have fueled the stateโ€™s trust land revenue, with a portion of the funds designated for New Mexico State University, or NMSU, a land-grant school founded in 1888 when New Mexico was still a territory.

New Mexico State University, as seen in an aerial view, is a land-grant school founded in 1888. Eliseu Cavalcante / Grist

The oil comes from drilling in the northwestern fringe of the Permian Basin, one of the oldest targets of large-scale oil production in the United States. Corporate descendants of Standard Oil, the infamous monopoly controlled by John D. Rockefeller, were operating in the Permian as early as the 1920s. Despite being a consistent source of oil, prospects for exploitation dimmed by the late 20th century, before surging again in the 21st. Today, itโ€™s more profitable than ever.

In recent decades, more sophisticated exploration techniques have revealed more โ€œrecoverableโ€ fossil fuel in the Permian than previously believed. A 2018 report by the United States Geological Survey pegged the volume at 46.3 billion barrels of oil and 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which made the Permian the largest oil and gas deposit in the nation. Analysts, shocked at the sheer volume, and the money to be made, have taken to crowningthe Permian the โ€œKing of Shale Oil.โ€ Critics concerned with the climate impact of the expanding operations call it a โ€œcarbon bomb.โ€

As oil and gas extraction spiked, so did New Mexicoโ€™s trust land receipts. In the last 20 years, oil and gas has generated between 91 and 97 percent of annual trust land revenue. It broke annual all-time highs in half of those years, topping $1 billion for the first time in 2019 and reaching $2.75 billion last year. Adjusted for inflation, more than 20 percent of New Mexicoโ€™s trust land income since 1900 has arrived in just the last five years.

โ€œEvery dollar earned by the Land Office,โ€ Commissioner Richard said when revenues broke the billion-dollar barrier, โ€œis a dollar taxpayers do not have to pay to support public institutions.โ€

Credit: Grist

Trust land as a cost-free source of subsidies for citizens is a common framing. In 2023, Richard declared that her office had saved every New Mexico taxpayer $1,500 that year. The press release did not mention oil or gas, or Apache bands in the state.

Virtually all of the trust land in New Mexico, including 186,000 surface acres and 253,000 subsurface acres now benefiting NMSU, was seized from various Apache bands during the so-called Apache Wars. Often reduced to the iconic photograph of Geronimo on one knee, rifle in hand, hostilities began in 1849, and they remain the longest-running military conflict in U.S. history, continuing until 1924.

In 2019, newly elected New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham began aligning state policy with โ€œscientific consensus around climate change.โ€ According to the stateโ€™s climate action website, New Mexico is working to tackle climate change by transitioning to clean electricity, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, supporting an economic transition from coal to clean energy, and shoring up natural resource resilience.

โ€œNew Mexico is serious about climate change โ€” and we have to be. We are already seeing drier weather and rising temperatures,โ€ the governor wrote on the stateโ€™s website. โ€œThis administration is committed not only to preventing global warming, but also preparing for its effects today and into the future.โ€

No mention was made of increasingly profitable oil and gas extraction on trust lands or their production in the Permian. In 2023, just one 240-acre parcel of land benefiting NMSU was leased for five years for $6 million. 

NMSU did not respond to a request for comment on this story.


More than half of the acreage uncovered in our investigation appears in oil-rich West Texas, the equivalent of more than 3 million football fields. It benefits Texas A&M.

Take the long drive west along I-10 between San Antonio and El Paso, in the southwest region of the Permian Basin, and youโ€™ll pass straight through several of those densely packed parcels without ever knowing it โ€” theyโ€™re hidden in plain sight on the arid landscape. These tracts, and others not far from the highway, were Mescalero Apache territory. Kiowas and Comanches relinquished more parcels farther north.

A flare glows on a land-grant parcel in Pyote, Texas, associated with Texas A&M. Eliseu Cavalcante / Grist

In the years after the Civil War, a โ€œpeace commissionโ€ pressured Comanche and Kiowa leaders for an agreement that would secure land for tribes in northern Texas and Oklahoma. Within two years, federal agents dramatically reduced the size of the resulting reservation with another treaty, triggering a decade of conflict.

The consequences were disastrous. Kiowas and Comanches lost their land to Texas and their populations collapsed. Between the 1850s and 1890s, Kiowas lost more than 60 percent of their people to disease and war, while Comanches lost nearly 90 percent.

If this general pattern of colonization and genocide was a common one, the trajectory that resulted in Texas A&Mโ€™s enormous state land trust was not.

Texas was never part of the U.S. public domain. Its brief stint as an independent nation enabled it to enter the Union as a state, skipping territorial status completely. As a result, like the original 13 states, it claimed rights to sell or otherwise distribute all the not-yet-privatized land within its borders.

Following the broader national model, but ratcheting up the scale, Texas would allocate over 2 million acres to subsidize higher education. 

Texas A&M was established to take advantage of a Morrill Act allocation of 180,000 acres, and opened its doors in 1876. The same year, Texas allocated a million acres of trust lands, followed by another million in 1883, nearly all of it on land relinquished in treaties from the mid-1860s.

Today, the Permanent University Fund derived from that land is worth nearly $34 billion. Thatโ€™s thanks to oil, of course, which has been flowing from the universityโ€™s trust lands since 1923. In 2022 alone, Texas trust lands produced $2.2 billion in revenue.

The Kiowa and Comanche were ultimately paid about 2 cents per acre for their land. The Mescalero Apache received nothing. 

Texas A&M did not respond to a request for comment on this story.


For more than a century, logging has been the main driver of Washington State Universityโ€™s trust land income, on land taken from 21 Indigenous nations, especially the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation. About 86,000 acres, more than half of the surface trust lands allocated to Washington State University, or WSU, are located inside Yakama land cessions, which started in 1855. Between 2018 and 2022, trust lands produced nearly $78.5 million in revenue almost entirely from timber. 

But it isnโ€™t a straight line to the universityโ€™s bank account.

โ€œThe university does not receive the proceeds from timber sales directly,โ€ said Phil Weiler, a spokesperson for WSU. โ€œLands held in trust for the university are managed by the Washington State Department of Natural Resources, not WSU.โ€

In 2022, WSUโ€™s trust lands produced about $19.5 million in revenue, which was deposited into a fund managed by the State Investment Board. In other words, the state takes on the management responsibility of turning timber into investments, while WSU reaps the rewards by drawing income from the resulting trust funds. 

โ€œThe Washington legislature decides how much of the investment earnings will be paid out to Washington State University each biennium,โ€ said Weiler. โ€œBy law, those payouts can only be used to fund capital projects and debt service.โ€

This arrangement yielded nearly $97 million dollars for WSU from its two main trust funds between 2018 and 2022, and has generally been on the rise since the Great Recession. In recent decades, the money has gone to construction and maintenance of the institutionโ€™s infrastructure, like its Biomedical and Health Sciences building, and the PACCAR Clean Technology Building โ€” a research center focused on innovating wood products and sustainable design. 

That revenue may look small in comparison to WSUโ€™s $1.2 billion dollar endowment, but it has added up over time. From statehood in 1889 to 2022, timber sales on trust lands provided Washington State University with roughly $1 billion in revenue when Grist adjusted for inflation. But those figures are likely higher: Between 1971 and 1983, the State of Washington did not produce detailed records on trust land revenue as a cost-cutting measure. 

Meanwhile, WSU students have demanded that the university divest from fossil fuel companies held in the endowment. But even if the board of regents agreed, any changes would likely not apply to the schoolโ€™s state-controlled trust fund, which currently contains shares in ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, and at least two dozen other corporations in the oil and gas sector.

โ€œWashington State University (WSU) is aware that our campuses are located on the homelands of Native peoples and that the institution receives financial benefit from trust lands,โ€ said Weiler. 


In states with trust lands, a reasonably comfortable buffer exists between beneficiaries, legislators, land managers, and investment boards, but that hasnโ€™t always been the case. In Minnesotaโ€™s early days, state leaders founded the University of Minnesota while also making policy that would benefit the school, binding the stateโ€™s history of genocide with the institution. 

Those actions still impact Indigenous peoples in the state today while providing steady revenue streams to the University.

Henry Sibley began to amass his fortune around 1834 after only a few years in the fur trade in the territory of what would become Minnesota, rising to the role of regional manager of the American Fur Company at just 23. But even then, the industry was on the decline โ€” wild game had been over-hunted and competition was fierce. Sibley responded by diversifying his activities. He moved into timber, making exclusive agreements with the Ojibwe to log along the Snake and Upper St. Croix rivers. 

His years in โ€œwild Indian countryโ€ were paying off: Sibley knew the land, waterways, and resources of the Great Lakes region, and he knew the people, even marrying Tahshinaohindaway, also known as Red Blanket Woman, in 1840 โ€” a Mdewakanton Dakota woman from Black Dog Village in what is now southern Minneapolis.

Sibley was a major figure in a number of treaty negotiations, aiding the U.S. in its western expansion, opening what is now Minnesota to settlement by removing tribes. In 1848, he became the first congressional delegate for the Wisconsin Territory, which covered much of present-day Minnesota, and eventually, Minnesotaโ€™s first governor. 

But he was also a founding regent of the University of Minnesota โ€” using his personal, political, and industry knowledge of the region to choose federal, state, and private lands for the university. Sibley and other regents used the institution as a shel corporation to speculate and move money between companies they held shares in.

n 1851, Sibley helped introduce land-grant legislation for the purpose of a territorial university, and just three days after Congress passed the bill, Minnesotaโ€™s territorial leaders established the University of Minnesota. With an eye on statehood, leaders knew more land would be granted for higher education, but first the land had to be made available. 

That same year, with the help of then-territorial governor and fellow university regent Alexander Ramsey, the Dakota signed the Treaty of Traverse De Sioux, a land cession that created almost half of the state of Minnesota, and, taken with other cessions, would later net the University nearly 187,000 acres of land โ€” an area roughly the size of Tucson.

Among the many clauses in the treaty was payment: $1.4 million would be given to the Dakota, but only after expenses. Ramsey deducted $35,000 for a handling fee, about $1.4 million in todayโ€™s dollars. After agencies and politicians had taken their cuts, the Dakota were promised only $350,000, but ultimately, only a few thousand arrived after federal agents delayed and withheld payments or substituted them for supplies that were never delivered. 

The betrayal led to the Dakota War of 1862. โ€œThe Sioux Indians of Minnesota must be exterminated or driven forever beyond the borders of the state,โ€ said Governor Ramsey. Sibley joined in the slaughter, leading an army of volunteers dedicated to the genocide of the Dakota people. At the end of the conflict, Ramsey ordered the mass execution of more than 300 Dakota men in December of 1862 โ€” a number later reduced by then-president Abraham Lincoln to 39, and still the largest mass execution in U.S. history

That grisly punctuation mark at the end of the war meant a windfall for the University of Minnesota, with new lands being opened through the stateโ€™s enabling act and another federal grant that had just been passed: the Morrill Act. Within weeks of the mass execution, the university was reaping benefits thanks to the political, and military, power of Sibley and the board of regents. 

Between 2018 and 2022, those lands produced more than $17 million in revenue, primarily through leases for the mining of iron and taconite, a low-grade iron ore used by the steel industry. But like other states that rely on investment funds and trusts to generate additional income, those royalties are only the first step in the institutionโ€™s financial investments.

Today, Sibley, Ramsey, and other regents are still honored. Their names adorn parks, counties, and streets, their homes memorialized for future generations. While there have been efforts to remove their names from schools and parks, Minnesota, its institutions, and many of its citizens continue to benefit from their actions.

The iron and taconite mines that owe their success to the work of these men have left lasting visual blightwater contaminationfrom historic mine tailings, and elevated rates of mesotheliomaamong taconite workers in Minnesota. The 1863 federal law that authorized the removal of Indigenous peoples from the region is still on the books today and has never been overturned.


Less than half of the universities featured in this story responded to requests for comment, and the National Association of State Trust Lands, the nonprofit consortium that represents trust land agencies and administrators, declined to comment. Those that did, however, highlighted the steps they were making to engage with Indigenous students and communities.

Still, investments in Indigenous communities are slow coming. Of the universities that responded to our requests, those that directly referenced how trust lands were used maintained they had no control over how they profited from the land. 

And theyโ€™re correct, to some degree: States managing assets for land-grants have fiduciary, and legal, obligations to act in the institutionโ€™s best interests. 

But that could give land-grant universities a right to ask why maximizing returns doesnโ€™t factor in the value of righting past wrongs or the costs of climate change.

โ€œWe can know very well that these things are happening and that weโ€™re part of the problem, but our desire for continuity and certainty and security override that knowledge,โ€ said Sharon Stein of the University of British Columbia.

That knowledge, Stein added, is easily eclipsed by investments in colonialism that obscure university complicity and dismiss that change is possible.

Though itโ€™s a complicated and arduous process changing laws and working with state agencies, universities regularly do it. In 2022, the 14 land-grant universities profiled in this story spent a combined $4.6 million on lobbying on issues ranging from agriculture to defense. All lobbied to influence the federal budget and appropriations.

But even if those high-level actions are taken, itโ€™s not clear how it will make a difference to people like Alina Sierra in Tucson, who faces a rocky financial future after her departure from the University of Arizona.

In 2022, a national study on college affordability found that nearly 40 percent of Native students accrued more than $10,000 in college debt, with some accumulating more than $100,000 in loans. Sierra is still in debt to UArizona for more than $6,000.

โ€œI think that being on Oโ€™odham land, they should give back, because itโ€™s stolen land,โ€ said Sierra. โ€œThey should put more into helping us.โ€ 

In January, Sierra enrolled as a full-time student at Tohono Oโ€™odham Community College in Sells, Arizona โ€” a tribal university on her homelands. The full cost of attendance, from tuition to fees to books, is free. 

The college receives no benefits from state trust lands.

CREDITS

This story was reported and written by Tristan Ahtone, Robert Lee, Amanda Tachine, An Garagiola, and Audrianna Goodwin. Data reporting was done by Maria Parazo Rose and Clayton Aldern, with additional data analysis and visualization by Marcelle Bonterre and Parker Ziegler. Margaret Pearce provided guidance and oversight. 

Original photography for this project was done by Eliseu Cavalcante and Bean Yazzie. Parker Ziegler handled design and development. Teresa Chin supervised art direction. Marty Two Bulls Jr. and Mia Torres provided illustration. Megan Merrigan, Justin Ray, and Mignon Khargie handled promotion. Rachel Glickhouse coordinated partnerships.

This project was edited by Katherine Lanpher and Katherine Bagley. Jaime Buerger managed production. Angely Mercado did fact-checking, and Annie Fu fact-checked the projectโ€™s data.

Special thanks to Teresa Miguel-Stearns, Jon Parmenter, Susan Shain, and Tushar Khurana for their additional research contributions. We would also like to thank the many state officials who helped to ensure we acquired the most recent and accurate information for this story. This story was made possible in part by the Pulitzer Center, the Data-Driven Reporting Project, and the Bay & Paul Foundation. 

The Misplaced Trust team acknowledges the Tohono Oโ€™odham, Pascua Yaqui, dxสทdษ™wส”abลก, Suquamish, Muckleshoot, puyalษ™pabลก, Tulalip, Muwekma Ohlone, Lisjan, Tongva, Kizh, Dakota, Bodwรฉwadmi, Quinnipiac, Monongahela, Shawnee, Lenape, Erie, Osage, Akimel Oโ€™odham, Piipaash, Oฤhรฉthi ล akรณwiล‹, Dinรฉ, Kanienสผkehรก:ka, Muh-he-con-ne-ok, Pฮฑnawฮฌhpskewi, and Mvskoke peoples, on whose homelands this story was created.

The amount of acreage under management for land-grant universities varies widely, from as little as 15,000 acres aboveground in North Dakota to more than 2.1 million belowground in Texas. Combined, Indigenous nations were paid approximately $4.7 million in todayโ€™s dollars for these lands, but in many cases, nothing was paid at all. In 2022 alone, these trust lands generated more than $2.2 billion for their schools. Between 2018 and 2022, the lands produced almost $6.7 billion. However, those figures are likely an undercount as multiple state agencies did not return requests to confirm amounts.

Creeks tainted by produced water unable to sustain aquatic life, regulators say — @WyoFile #KeepItInTheGround #ActOnClimate

A DEQ worker collects samples from Alkali Creek below where produced water from the Moneta Divide Field is discharged. (Wyoming DEQ)

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile website (Angus M. Thuermer Jr.):

March 20, 2024

Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality acknowledges years of built-up pollution from Moneta Divide field but has no plan to remove black sludge 6 feet deep

Two creeks tainted by decades of dumping from Moneta Divide oilfield drillers are officially โ€œimpairedโ€ and unable to sustain aquatic life, state regulators say in a new report.

Parts of Alkali and Badwater creeks in Fremont County are polluted to the point they donโ€™t meet standards for drinking, consumption of resident fish or sustaining aquatic life, a report by the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality states. The agency listed 40.8 miles of the creeks as impaired in aย biannual reportย required by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

The project is being developed by Aethon Energy Management and Burlington Resources Oil and Gas Company. Aethon Energy Management and its partner RedBird Capital Partners acquired the Moneta Divide assets from Encana Oil and Gas in May 2015. The environment impact assessment (EIA) process of the Moneta Divide field was commenced in 2011, while the final environmental impact statement (EIS) and resource management plan (RMP) for the project were released in February 2020. Photo credit: NS Energy

Parts of the creeks are polluted by oilfield discharges, including hydrogen sulfide, ammonia and chloride. The industrial activity is responsible for low levels of oxygen in the water, turbidity and a black sludge that critics say is up to 6 feet deep.

Arsenic also is present, but state monitoring couldnโ€™t determine its origin.

The report catalogs pollution downstream of discharge points where produced water โ€” effluent from natural gas and oil production โ€” flows from the 327,645-acre energy field operated mainly by Aethon Energy Operating in Fremont and Natrona counties.

The โ€œimpairedโ€ listings are a good thing that set the table for action, said Jill Morrison, who works on the pollution issue for the conservation group Powder River Basin Resource Council. But the listing comes only after years of badgering an agency that now should look to clean up the creeks.

โ€œWhat we are saying is โ€˜thank youโ€™ for stepping up to address these issues,โ€ Morrison said. โ€œWe wish it was done sooner. Youโ€™ve got enforcement power; what steps are you taking to make Aethon clean this up?โ€

Wyoming rivers map via Geology.com

Environmental stewards

The DEQ issued a revised permit to the private Dallas company in 2020 allowing it to discharge oilfield waste into Alkali Creek, which flows into Badwater Creek and the Boysen Reservoir, a source of drinking water for the town of Thermopolis. The permit calls for monitoring and testing, among other things.

About a year ago, however, the DEQ sent the company a letter of violation for โ€œreoccurring exceedancesโ€ of water quality standards for sulfide, barium, radium and temperature. Thatโ€™s a violation of the Wyoming Environmental Quality Act, state rules and regulations, and the permit itself.

The April 28 letter states that the DEQ hopes to resolve the violation through โ€œconference and conciliation.โ€ DEQ wants Aethon โ€œto show good faith efforts toward resolving the problem and to prevent the need for more formal enforcement action by this office.โ€

The alleged kid-glove treatment rankles Powder Riverโ€™s Morrison. โ€œThey trade, back and forth, nice conversations and nothing happens,โ€ she said.

An Aethon pump jack in the Moneta Divide oil and gas field east of Shoshoni. (Angus M. Thuermer Jr./WyoFile)

DEQ asked Aethon for a response within 30 days. WyoFile requested on March 6 that the agency provide a copy of Aethonโ€™s response but had not received it by publication time. Aethon typically does not respond to media questions regarding regulatory enforcement and did not answer a recent request for comment.

The 2020 permit also requires Aethon to dramatically reduce the amount of chloride โ€” salty water โ€” it pumps onto the landscape. DEQ said the company is preparing to meet a late-summer deadline for that standard.

โ€œAethon continues to diligently work toward resuming treatment of effluent using the Neptune reverse osmosis treatment plant,โ€ DEQ said in an email, โ€œin accordance with the established chloride compliance schedule.โ€

Aethonโ€™s website says the company has a โ€œcommitment to protect the environment and our people [and] operate responsibly.โ€ The company is a โ€œsteward of the environment,โ€ the website states.

Black sludge

The DEQโ€™s โ€œimpairedโ€ listing addresses surface water in the two creeks through whatโ€™s known as a draft Integrated 305 (b) report. It is open for comments through March 25. 

But thereโ€™s another issue that rankles critics, including the Wyoming Outdoor Council and the Powder River group โ€” black sludge.

DEQ surveys of the creeks revealed โ€œbottom depositsโ€ containing mineral deposits, iron sulfides and dissolved solids, all contributing to low oxygen levels that kill aquatic life. After a phone conference with DEQ in February, Powder Riverโ€™s Morrison said she learned that the bottom deposit of black sludge extends for about three miles and is from 6 inches to 6 feet deep.

A retired University of Wyoming professor who worked with the Powder River group analyzing Aethonโ€™s permit called the sediments โ€œtotally loaded.โ€ Harold Bergman said โ€œthat contaminated sediment will be leaching out contaminants into Boysen Reservoir for decades to come.โ€

He and Joe Meyer, a retired chemist who also worked with the conservation group, wrote that DEQโ€™s Aethon permit did not require enough testing for deleterious substances, did not consider what impact the mix of substances together has on aquatic life, and allowed as much as five times the proper amount of dissolved solids to flow out of the oilfield.

โ€œYou would not have that black gunk sediment if it werenโ€™t for the Aethon discharge,โ€ Meyer said.

A report of monitoring between 2019-โ€™22 shows that aluminum exceeded discharge standards up to 17% of the time. Other than that, thereโ€™s still a question of what else is in the sludge.

This image of Alkali Creek shows flows downstream of the Frenchie Draw oil and gas field discharge point in October 2021, according to the image title. The Powder River Basin Resource Council obtained this and other public records through a request to Wyoming DEQ. (DEQ)

โ€œWe donโ€™t know about individual organic chemicals,โ€ Meyer said. Reports only mention โ€œthe gross measures of organic compounds,โ€ he said.

โ€œThat doesnโ€™t tell us about individual chemicals,โ€ Meyer said. How much, if any, BTEX chemicals โ€” Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene and Xylenes that are harmful to humans โ€” are in the sludge โ€œwe have no way of knowing.โ€

He stopped short of accusing DEQ of avoiding the question. For now, โ€œthey just wanted to get an overview analysis,โ€ he said.

DEQ said it has a plan for the sludge. โ€œDEQโ€™s Water Quality Division is monitoring any sediment flow in lower Badwater Creek to determine if there are any sediments that may mobilize towards Boysen Lake,โ€ an agency official said in an email.

For Morrison, โ€œthe big question is what DEQ is going to require Aethon to do to clean up this mess,โ€ she wrote in an email. Meyer and Bergman say simply dredging up the sludge is likely too dangerous because such an operation would dislodge substances and send them downstream. A more complex plan would be needed, they said.

Morrison criticized what she sees as the DEQโ€™s priorities. โ€œTheyโ€™re not putting the health and safety of these streamsโ€™ water quality, fish and downstream water users above the interests and profits of Aethon.โ€

Heat pumps slash emissions even if powered by aย dirty grid — Grist

The shiny new cold-weather air source heat pump installed during summer 2023 at Coyote Gulch Manor.

Click the link to read the article on the Grist website (Alison F. Takemura):

Installing a heat pump now is better for the climate, even if it’s run on U.S. electricity generated mostly by fossil fuels. Hereโ€™s why.

March 17, 2024

This story was originally published by Canary Media.

You might consider heat pumps to be a tantalizing climate solution (they are) and one you could adopt yourself (plenty have). But perhaps youโ€™ve held off on getting one, wondering how much of a difference they really make if a dirty grid is supplying the electricity youโ€™re using to power them โ€” that is, a grid whose electricity is generated at least in part by fossil gas, coal, or oil.

Thatโ€™s certainly the case for most U.S. households: While the grid mix is improving, itโ€™s still far from clean. In 2023, renewable energy sources provided just 21 percent of U.S. electricity generation, with carbon-free nuclear energy coming in at 19 percent. The other 60 percent of power came from burning fossil fuels.

So do electric heat pumps really lower emissions if they run on dirty gridย power?

The answer is an emphatic yes. Even on a carbon-heavy diet, heat pumps eliminate tons of emissions annually compared to other heating systems.

The latest study to hammer this point home was published in Joule last month by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The team modeled the entire U.S. housing stock and found that, over the applianceโ€™s expected lifetime of 16 years, switching to a heat-pump heater/โ€‹AC slashes emissions in every one of the contiguous 48 states. 

In fact, heat pumps reduce carbon pollution even if the process of cleaning up the U.S. grid moves slower than experts expect. Theย NRELย team used six different future scenarios for the grid, from aggressiveย decarbonizationย (95ย percent carbon-free electricity byย 2035) to sluggish (onlyย 50ย percent carbon-free electricity byย 2035, in the event that renewables wind up costing more than their current trajectories forecast). They found that depending on the scenario and level of efficiency, heat pumps lower household annual energy emissions on average byย 36 percent toย 64 percent โ€” orย 2.5ย toย 4.4ย metric tons ofย CO2ย equivalent per year per housing unit.

Thatโ€™s aย staggering amount of emissions. For context, preventingย 2.5ย metric tons ofย CO2ย emissionsย is equivalent toย not burningย 2,800ย pounds of coal. Or not driving for half aย year. Or switchingย to aย vegan dietย forย 14ย months. And at the high end of the studyโ€™s range,ย 4.4ย metric tons ofย CO2ย is almost equivalent to the emissions from aย roundtrip flight from New York City to Tokyo (4.6ย metric tons).

Eric Wilson, senior research engineer at NREL and lead author of the study, told me, โ€‹โ€œI often hear people saying, โ€‹โ€˜Oh, you should wait to put in a heat pump because the grid is still dirty.โ€™โ€ But thatโ€™s faulty logic. โ€‹โ€œItโ€™s better to switch now rather than later โ€” and not lock in another 20 years of a gas furnace or boiler.โ€

Emissions savings tend to be higher in states with colder winters and heaters that run on fuel oil, such as Maine, according to the study. (Maine seems to be one step ahead of the researchers: Heat pumps have proven so popular there that the state already blew past its heat-pump adoption goal two years ahead of schedule.)

A dirty grid, then, doesnโ€™t cancel out a heat pumpโ€™s climate benefits. But heat pumps can generate emissions in the same way standard ACs do: by leaking refrigerant, the chemicals that enable these appliances to move around heat. Though itโ€™s being phased down, the HVAC standard refrigerant R-410A is 2,088 times more potent a greenhouse gas than CO2, so even small leaks have an outsize impact.

Added emissions from heat-pump refrigerant leaks barely make aย dent, however, given the emissions heat pumps avoid, theย NRELย team found. Typical leakage rates of R-410A increase emissions on average by onlyย 0.07ย metric tons ofย CO2ย equivalent per year, shaving the overall savings ofย 2.5ย metric tons by justย 3ย percent, Wilson said.

2023 analysis from climate think tank RMI further backs up heat pumpsโ€™ climate bona fides. Across the 48 continental states, RMI found that replacing a gas furnace with an efficient heat pump saves emissions not only cumulatively across the applianceโ€™s lifetime, but also in the very first year itโ€™s installed. RMI estimated that emissions prevented in that first year were 13 percent to 72 percent relative to gas-furnace emissions, depending on the state. (Canary Media is an independent affiliate of RMI.)

Both the RMI and NREL studies focused on air-source heat pumps, which, in cold weather, pull heat from the outdoor air and can be three to four times as efficient as gas furnaces. But ground-source heat pumps can be more than five times as efficient compared to gas furnaces โ€” and thus unlock even greater greenhouse-gas reductions, according to RMI.

How much could switching to aย heat pump lowerย yourย homeโ€™s carbon emissions? For aย high-level estimate,ย NRELย put outย an interactive dashboard. In theย โ€‹โ€œstatesโ€ tab, you can filter down to your state, building type and heating fuel. For instance, based on aย scenario of moderate grid decarbonization in my state of Colorado, aย single-family home that swaps out aย gas furnace for aย heat pump could slash emissions by aย whoppingย 6ย metric tons ofย CO2.

You can also get an estimate from Rewiring Americaโ€™s personal electrification planner, which uses more specific info about your home, or ask an energy auditor or whole-home decarbonization company if they can calculate emissions savings as part of a home energy audit.

One final takeaway Wilson shared: If every American home with gas, oil, or inefficient electric-resistance heating were to swap it right now for heat-pump heating, the emissions of the entire U.S. economy would shrink by 5 percent to 9 percent. Thatโ€™s how powerful a decarbonizing tool heat pumps are.

Article: US oil and gas system emissions from nearly one million aerial site measurements — Nature #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Natural gas flares near a community in Colorado. Colorado health officials and some legislators agree that better monitoring is necessary. Photo credit the Environmental Defense Fund.

Click the link to access the article on the Nature website (Evan D. Sherwin, Jeffrey S. Rutherford, Zhan Zhang, Yuanlei Chen, Erin B. Wetherley, Petr V. Yakovlev, Elena S. F. Berman, Brian B. Jones, Daniel H. Cusworth, Andrew K. Thorpe, Alana K. Ayasse, Riley M. Duren, & Adam R. Brandt). Here’s an excerpt:

As airborne methane surveys of oil and gas systems continue to discover large emissions that are missing from official estimates, the true scope of methane emissions from energy production has yet to be quantified. We integrate approximately one million aerial site measurements into regional emissions inventories for six regions in the USA, comprising 52% of onshore oil and 29% of gas production over 15โ€‰aerial campaigns. We construct complete emissions distributions for each, employing empirically grounded simulations to estimate small emissions. Total estimated emissions range from 0.75% (95% confidence interval (CI)โ€‰0.65%, 0.84%) of covered natural gas production in a high-productivity, gas-rich region to 9.63% (95% CI 9.04%, 10.39%) in a rapidly expanding, oil-focused region. The six-region weighted average is 2.95% (95 % CI 2.79%, 3.14%), or roughly three times the national government inventory estimate. Only 0.05โ€“1.66% of well sites contribute the majority (50โ€“79%) of well site emissions in 11 out of 15โ€‰surveys. Ancillary midstream facilities, including pipelines, contribute 18โ€“57% of estimated regional emissions, similarly concentrated in a small number of point sources. Together, the emissions quantified here represent an annual loss of roughly US$1โ€‰billion in commercial gas value and a US$9.3โ€‰billion annual social cost. Repeated, comprehensive, regional remote-sensing surveys offer a path to detect these low-frequency, high-consequence emissions for rapid mitigation, incorporation into official emissions inventories and a clear-eyed assessment of the most effective emission-finding technologies for a given region.

424.47 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in air 01-Mar-2024 — @Keeling_curve #ActOnClimate

Data Dump: Western Farms: We dig into the latest agricultural census numbers — Jonathan P. Thompson (@Land_Desk)

Photo credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

February 23, 2024

Happy Agricultural Census time! Last week, the USDA released the 2022 Census of Agriculture โ€” a once-every-five-year event โ€” and, as always, itโ€™s chock full of data on the state of the nationโ€™s farming. I like to peruse the numbers and compare them to those from previous censuses to try to get a sense of how the Westโ€™s agricultural landscape is changing, and to get answers to questions like: How are farmers responding to aridification? Is residential development really gobbling up all the farmland? 

The report only offers numbers, without a lot of context. So drawing firm conclusions isnโ€™t possible. But the data are interesting, and sometimes enlightening, nonetheless. Letโ€™s start with an overview:

Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

I gotta say, I had to double- then triple-check the numbers on this one. New Mexico has way more farmed acres than California โ€” Say what!? But yeah, they do. Keep in mind that this is not cropland, but farm land, which can include sprawling ranches and just land that someone is calling agricultural for tax reasons. So take it with a grain of salt. Farm acreage is decreasing in all the states, which is hardly surprising. 

But before you freak out about the death of American farming, consider this: The total number of farms has increased everywhere since 1997 except in California.

Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

Other data suggest that small farms are making a big comeback, especially in Colorado (though there was a slight dip in farm numbers between 2017 and 2022). 

Now letโ€™s look at alfalfa, since hay is not only fodder for horses but also for fighting over these days, especially in the Colorado River Basin. We hear a lot about how much water alfalfa uses and about how the federal government is paying farmers in the Lower Colorado River Basin not to grow the stuff. And so, one might expect to see a big drop in alfalfa production in those places. 

That didnโ€™t happen. In fact, several places produced significantly more alfalfa in 2022 than in 2017. It seems weird, but there are a few things to consider. First, even though the Colorado River Crisis was well under way by 2022, most of the programs paying farmers to stop farming hadnโ€™t yet kicked in in 2022. Also, farmers arenโ€™t really being paid to stop farming or plow up their crops. Theyโ€™re being paid to use less water. Or, another way to look at it: The feds are leasing the farmersโ€™ water from them in order to keep it in the reservoirs. Which means farmers can keep growing if they want; they just canโ€™t irrigate as much. And alfalfa, it turns out, is fairlyย drought tolerant, unlike, say, almonds or lettuce or broccoli. So it makes some sense to see alfalfa production hold steady or even climb during a drought.

Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

Once again, Imperial County, California, is the Westโ€™s biggest alfalfa producer. And the Imperial Irrigation District remains the largest single water user on the Colorado River. Maricopa County, Arizona, is in second place for alfalfa tonnage, which just goes to show that Phoenix sprawl may be gobbling up farm- and desert-land, but the hayfields endure (and Maricopa County is ginormous). And alfalfa production increased substantially between 2017 and 2022 in those places, though it fell in most of the other counties surveyed. 

And hereโ€™s something else that doesnโ€™t show up on the graph: Eddy County, New Mexicoโ€™s alfalfa acreage and production fell by more than 50% between 1997 and 2022. I donโ€™t know the reason, but I wouldnโ€™t be surprised if it had to do with the Permian Basin oil and gas drilling boom, some of which surely is taking place on farmland. Just a guess. It also might have to do with ongoing drought, I suppose. 

Of course, most of that alfalfa is going to feed livestock, either in the U.S. or elsewhere. And a surprisingly (for me, at least) large percentage of that livestock in the West are dairy cattle. So eschewing beef, alone, in order to save water ainโ€™t gonna be enough. You gotta ditch the whole enchilada, cheese and all! (Ainโ€™t happening).

Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

California, especially Tulare and Merced Counties, is dairy country. The state is home to nearly 1.7 million dairy cattle. Idaho runs a distant second for the West, with a mere 664,000. Nearly a half-million dairy cattle call New Mexico home, while Maricopa County has about 103,000 dairy cows. Montana is the Westโ€™s beef-cow leader, with California, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico rounding out the top five, in that order. Weld County, Colorado, (home of the Greeley stench) is the beefiest county in the West, with Fresno, Kern, and Tulare in California up there, too. 

$36 million; $14 million; $45 million: Amount spent in 2018 on energy for on-farm irrigation-pumping in the Rio Grande; Upper Colorado; and Lower Colorado watersheds, respectively. 

626,000; 1.4 million Acres of almond orchards in California in 2002 and 2022, respectively. (Aridification ainโ€™t keeping these water hogs at bay, apparently!)

546; 1176 Number of farms in Colorado harvesting vegetables for sale in 1997; 2022, respectively. (A small-farm/farmers market revolution?)

$671,000; $2 million Average value of a Colorado farmโ€™s land and buildings in 1997; 2022, respectively (That amounts to $618/acre then vs. $2,401/acre now, meaning itโ€™s a lot more expensive to get into farming these days if you donโ€™t already have any land). 

37; 105 Number of farms in Nevada harvesting vegetables for sale in 1997; 2022, respectively.

85,446; 58,831ย Acres of potatoes harvested in Colorado in 1997; 2022, respectively.ย (Thatโ€™s a big drop. I plan to look into this one a bit more in a future dispatch).

2,038,456; 606,105 cwt (approx. 100 lbs) of dry beans harvested in Colorado in 1997; 2022, respectively (Ack! Whatโ€™s going on?!)

6.8 million; 9.4 million Bushels of corn produced in Arizona in 1997; 2022, respectively. (Another counterintuitive one. Warrants further investigation!)

860,000; 313,000 Bales of cotton harvested in Arizona in 1997; 2022, respectively. 

73,603; 58,492 Acres of land in orchards in Arizona in 1997; 2022, respectively. (Those citrus groves have been displaced by subdivisions, Iโ€™m afraid). 

2.7 million; 4.1 million Acres of land in orchards in California in 1997; 2022, respectively. (Wow! A lot of these acres are planted with almonds, surely.) 

2.6 million; 1.8 million Number of hogs and pigs sold by Utah operations in 2012; 2022, respectively. (Yes, Utah is hog-farm central. Smithfield Foods contracts with a bunch of factory hog farming operations in Beaver County. They are cutting back operations, however.)

And the most heartbreaking data point? Dove Creek isnโ€™t even close to being the Pinto Bean Capital of the World anymore. Hell, itโ€™s not even the bean capital of Colorado. Dolores and Montezuma Counties together produced about 25,000 cwt of dried beans in 2022. Yuma County, Colorado, harvested 270,000 cwt. Okay, granted, thatโ€™s for alldry beans, not just pintos (the census doesnโ€™t break them out by variety). Still โ€ฆ How the mighty have fallen! 

Are you curious about specific ag stats for your county or state? Drop the Land Desk a line or put your question in the comments below and weโ€™ll try to track down an answer.

Alfalfaphobia? 

JONATHAN P. THOMPSON

SEPTEMBER 23, 2022

Golf course at Page, Arizona, with Glen Canyon Dam and the diminished Lake Powell in the background. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

In recent weeks I’ve written a piece or Two about Alfalfa. My thesis: As the biggest single water user in the Colorado River Basin, the crop must plan an equally large role in contributing two the cuts necessary to keep the river from drying out. I know, it doesn’t seem like a hot-button topic. I mean, it’s just hay, after all.

Read full story

A follow up

This cool map by the Grand Canyon Trustโ€™s Stephanie Smith shows how these projects usually work and gives a sense of scale and impacts. Source: Grand Canyon Trust.

When I wrote earlier this week that federal regulators hadย nixed all of the still active proposals for pumped hydropower energy storage facilities on the Navajo Nation, I overlooked one: the proposed Big Canyon Pumped Storage Project on a tributary of the Little Colorado River. Seems that when the Phoenix-based companyย surrendered permitsย for two other Little Colorado projects back in 2021, it kept a third proposal alive. Since I hadnโ€™t heard anything about it, I had assumed it had simply faded away. Not quite.ย 

Confluence of the Little Colorado River and the Colorado River. Climate change is affecting western streams by diminishing snowpack and accelerating evaporation. The Colorado Riverโ€™s flows and reservoirs are being impacted by climate change, and environmental groups are concerned about the status of the native fish in the river. Photo credit: DMY at Hebrew Wikipedia [Public domain]

This week FERC issued a notice seeking public input on the Pumped Hydro Storageโ€™s application for a preliminary permit for the project, which would be located on Navajo Nation lands. 

So why didnโ€™t FERC reject this project like it did the other proposals? Because back in 2020, when the application was initially submitted, the tribe intervened in the case, but didnโ€™t express outright opposition. Now they have the chance to do so, which presumably would result in the permitโ€™s rejection per FERCโ€™s new policy.ย The Hopi Tribe has alsoย weighed in on FERC policyย and these projects.

Parting Shot

A cow in the desert. Jonathan P. Thompson photo

Wyoming Governor Gordon: Biden policies frustrate #Wyomingโ€™s budget plans and #climate ambitions — @WyoFile #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Gov. Mark Gordon spoke with Advance Casper members Feb. 13 2024 in Casper. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

February 14, 2024

Governor Mark Gordonโ€™s push for carbon capture at coal-fired power plants and for pumping planet-warming carbon dioxide underground to produce more oil isnโ€™t a climate crusade, he told business leaders Tuesday in Casper. Itโ€™s an acknowledgment of where policies outside Wyoming have driven markets.

Wyoming, the nationโ€™s top coal producer and among its top oil and natural gas producers, can help meet the goal โ€” and the market reality โ€” of reducing carbon emissions into the atmosphere, he said. But the state doesnโ€™t have to abandon its fossil fuels to do it. 

Instead, Gordon is on a mission to prove that integrating carbon capture with fossil fuel production and use is not only economically and technically viable, itโ€™s necessary to fill in the energy-availability gaps that renewable energy introduces into the western electricity grid when the sun doesnโ€™t shine and the wind doesnโ€™t blow.

And if people are honest about the full cost and complete carbon life cycles of both renewables and fossil fuel energy, more states will get on board, he said.

Gov. Mark Gordon visits with Casper business leaders Feb. 13 2024 in Casper. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

โ€œIf we can extend the life of these coal plants [by retrofitting them to capture carbon] for a period of time, we can meet that gap,โ€ Gordon told members of Advance Casper, the cityโ€™s business and economic development group.

Gordon has been aggressively sharing his energy vision of late. He spoke last fall at Harvard University, which drew a strong rebuke from Wyomingโ€™s far right. He also appeared on โ€œ60 Minutes,โ€ where the governor discussed making the state carbon-negative

One challenge, Gordon explained to members of Advance Casper, is that states that are demanding low-carbon or carbon-free electricity are not fairly distributing those costs, which include the loss of viewsheds and wildlife habitat from wind and solar farms in Wyoming. At the same time, those states donโ€™t want to help pay to capture carbon at Wyoming coal plants, despite their own carbon policies that push costs onto Wyoming ratepayers.

โ€œWe need to be able to have the grid pay for the desire to reduce carbon emissions โ€” thatโ€™s consumers acrossโ€ the West, Gordon said.

To that end, Gordon has been lobbying his counterparts in the Western Governors Association. Gordon was elected WGA president last summer, and he established โ€œDecarbonizing the Westโ€ as his signature initiative during his one-year tenure.

A sticker at Nerd Gas Co. in Casper. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

The initiative spans an all-of-the-above energy strategy, from nuclear and geothermal power to smarter siting of wind and solar development. Bringing some of those western state leaders onboard with his ideas for adding carbon capture to fossil fuels is still a challenge, Gordon said.

Meantime, the Biden administration โ€” although itโ€™s onboard with Wyomingโ€™s carbon capture research efforts โ€” continues to present existential threats to the stateโ€™s struggling fossil fuel industries through restrictive rulemakings to cut carbon emissions, the governor maintains.

State of the stateโ€™s energy

In his State of the State address on Monday at the Capitol, Gordon said the Legislatureโ€™s task of crafting a state budget for the next two years is particularly challenging under the weight of federal policies that the Biden administration continues to pile on fossil fuels โ€” an industry that has โ€œanchored our economy for over a century,โ€ Gordon said.

The weight of Wyomingโ€™s fossil fuel economic anchor has varied greatly in recent years, and itโ€™s the largest factor in setting the stateโ€™s budget โ€” in boom times and in bust. Although revenue from Wyomingโ€™s carbon-based energy industries rebounded after the economic shock of the pandemic, markets have begun to settle back into broader trends that point to aย continued decline in Wyoming coal consumptionย and the potential forย even more volatilityย for oil and natural gas.ย 

Gov. Mark Gordon gives his State of the State address Feb. 12, 2024, at the Capitol in Cheyenne. (Ashton J. Hacke/WyoFile)

What looked to be an extra $50.3 million in extra discretionary budget spending, according to Wyomingโ€™s revenue forecast in August, was dialed back in January to $37 million.

Biden administration policies โ€” such as oil and gas leasing reformsmethane emission reduction rulescoal power plant emissions and a restrictive proposal for energy development in the Bureau of Land Managementโ€™s Rock Springs Resource Management Plan โ€” are a significant driver of forecasted revenues and cause for a conservative approach to the stateโ€™s budget, according to Gordon. 

They also represent a federal policy agenda that is โ€œmisguided,โ€ โ€œwarpedโ€ and โ€œunwiseโ€ โ€” and, borrowing from a phrase by Gulf War military leader Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, they amount to โ€œpure, unadulterated โ€˜bovine scatology,’โ€ Gordon declared.

โ€œWyoming people know how these policies have left our nation more vulnerable to put our economy โ€” our very way of life โ€” at risk,โ€ Gordon said.

Mauna Loa is WMO Global Atmosphere Watch benchmark station and monitors rising CO2 levels Week of 23 April 2023: 424.40 parts per million Weekly value one year ago: 420.19 ppm Weekly value 10 years ago: 399.32 ppm ๐Ÿ“ท http://CO2.Earthhttps://co2.earth/daily-co2. Credit: World Meteorological Organization

The World Is Losing Migratory Species at Alarming Rates — Inside #Climate News #ActOnClimate

Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Katie Surma):

A first of its kind U.N. study by conservation scientists finds nearly half of internationally protected migratory species are on their way to extinction.

Humans are driving migratory animalsโ€”sea turtles, chimpanzees, lions and penguins, among dozens of other speciesโ€”towards extinction, according to the most comprehensive assessment of migratory species ever carried out.

The State of the Worldโ€™s Migratory Species, a first of its kind report compiled by conservation scientists under the auspices of the U.N. Environment Programmeโ€™s World Conservation Monitoring Centre, found population decline, a precursor to extinction, in nearly half of the roughly 1,200 species listed under the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS), a 1979 treaty aimed at conserving species that move across international borders.

The reportโ€™s findings dovetail with those of another authoritative U.N. assessment, the 2019ย Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, that found around 1 million of Earthโ€™s 8 million species are at risk of extinction due to human activity. Since the 1970s, global biodiversity, the variation of life on Earth, has declined by a whopping 70 percent.

Scientists and economists use complicated models to try to predict how fast the world can transition away from fossil fuels. The Washington Post analyzed 1,200 modeled pathways for the world to shift to clean energy and found that only four of them showed the world hitting the 1.5C target without substantially overshooting or using speculative technology (like large-scale carbon capture) that doesnโ€™t yet exist. At this point, many experts believe that the economy is too stuck on fossil fuels to transition fast enough for 1.5 degrees.

Does that mean weโ€™ll pass catastrophic tipping points?

Arctic Ocean. Photo credit: The European Commission

Thatโ€™s a more difficult question. Scientists donโ€™t know exactly when certain tipping points โ€” like theย collapse of the Greenland ice sheetย or the release of greenhouse gases from thawing permafrost โ€” will occur. Itโ€™s very hard to predict and model these types of catastrophic changes.

And 1.5C isnโ€™t a magic threshold; itโ€™s not as though as soon as we pass that number, Antarctic ice sheets will collapse and ocean circulations will grind to a halt. But one thing is certain: For every tenth of a degree of warming, tipping points are more likely. Two degrees is worse than 1.9 degrees, which is worse than 1.8 degrees, and so on.

And at each tenth of a degree, the infrastructure and systems that the world has built โ€” electric grids, homes, livelihoods โ€” will become more strained. Our modern world simply was not designed for temperatures this high. At some level, the final temperature of the planet isnโ€™t what matters most. Itโ€™s where countries can actually get carbon emissions to zero โ€” and stop contributing to future warming altogether.

Earth breached a feared level of warming over the past year. Are we doomed? The world still hasn’t missed its #climate goal — The Washington Post #ActOnClimate

Virga during a sunset. By ะ’ะธะบั‚ะพั€ ะะปะตะบัะตะตะฒ – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=112499661

Click the link to read the article on The Washington Post website (Shannon Osaka). Here’s an excerpt:

Itโ€™s official: For the past 12 months, the Earth wasย 1.5 degrees Celsius higherย than in preindustrial times, scientists said Thursday [February 8, 2024], crossing a critical barrier into temperatures never experienced by human civilizations. According to the European Unionโ€™s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the past 12 months clocked in at a scorching 1.52 degrees Celsius (2.74 degrees Fahrenheit) higher on average compared with between 1850 and 1900. At some level, thatโ€™s not surprising โ€” the past 12 months have been scorching, as a warmย El Niรฑo cycleย combined with the signal ofย human-caused warmingย generated heat waves and extreme weather events around the globe.

โ€œThis El Nino maximum is riding on top of a base climate that is continuously warming due to climate change,โ€ Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University, said in an email. โ€œThe combination of them is whatโ€™s giving us such hot global temperatures.โ€

But does this mean that the worldโ€™s most famous climate goal is out of reach? Not … exactly. Hereโ€™s what you need to know:

In the 2016 Paris climate agreement, almost 200 nations agreed to keep the global average temperature from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels โ€” and to โ€œpursue effortsโ€ to keep it below 1.5 degrees Celsius. The latter addition largely came from pressure from small-island states, who are at risk of disappearing under rising seas if temperatures get much higher. Scientists have shown that holding the temperature riseย to 1.5C could mean the survival of coral reefs, the preservation of Arctic sea ice and less deadly heat waves…

Does this mean we have missed the 1.5C climate goal? No. Thereโ€™s actually someย disagreementย about what exactly counts as breaching that threshold โ€” but scientists and policymakers agree that it has to be a multiyear average, not a single 12-month period. Scientists estimate that without dramatic emissions reductions, that will happen sometime in theย 2030s. But there could be other single years or 12-month periods that cross the line before then.

Can we still avoid passing 1.5C? Most scientists say passing 1.5C is inevitable. โ€œThe 1.5-degree limit is deader than a doornail,โ€ Columbia University climate scientist James Hansen said in a call with reporters late last year.

#Colorado fines Suncor $10.5 million for air pollution violations — Denver7.com #KeepItInTheGround #ActOnClimate

Denver, Colorado, USA – January 12, 2013: The Suncor Energy refinery in Denver, Colorado. Based in Calgary, Alberta, Suncor Energy is a Canadian oil and gas company with revenues of over 35 Billion Canadian Dollars. Photo credit: City of Boulder

Click the link to read the article on the Denver7.com website (Robert Garrison). Here’s an excerpt:

February 5, 2024

The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment slapped Suncor Refinery with a $10.5 million fine for air pollution violations from July 2019 through June 2021, the agency announced Monday. The Commerce City refinery must also double the number of air pollution monitors compared to the refineryโ€™s original fenceline monitoring plan, according to the CDPHEโ€™s largest enforcement package against a single facility. Of the $10.5 million Suncor has to pay the state, only $2.5 million of that is related to penalties it accumulated in the time period specified above and includes:

  • Exceeding sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides emissions limits.
  • Exceeding hydrogen sulfide concentration limits.
  • Exceeding opacity and visible emissions standards.
  • Failing to meet certain operating parameters.
  • Violations due to causes other than power disruptions.

No less than $8 million will go toward projects Suncor must complete, the CDPHE said in a news release.

#NewMexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham unveils 50-year water action plan — Source NM

New Mexico Lakes, Rivers and Water Resources via Geology.com.

Click the link to read the article on the Source NM website (Danielle Prokop):

January 31, 2024

Even as New Mexico water supplies are predicted to decline by more than 25% over the next five decades, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham said she always views the glass as half-full, in the Tuesday presentation of a long-awaited report addressing the stateโ€™s water needs for the next 50 years.

Or really: โ€œ45 years, since it took us five years to write it,โ€ the governor quipped.

Over the next 50 years, due to human-driven climate change, scientists say New Mexico will be hotter, drier and lead to less water. Hotter weather shrinks the snowbanksparches the soils and shrivels the rivers. Less available water in rivers puts more pressure on New Mexico aquifers and reduces the chances to refill them. Climate change also turns up the heat on wildfires, which decimate watersheds, and will deepen droughts and worsen flooding.

Without action, New Mexico will have a shortage of 750,000 acre feet of water in that time period, according to the document.

The 23-page document proposes using water conservation, new water supplies and protections for watersheds to address the shortfall. It breaks down further into 11 subsections with points to develop public education campaigns, improve infrastructure, modernize wastewater treatment plants and protect and restore watersheds.

โ€œIt conserves water and it reduces waste,โ€ Lujan Grisham said. โ€œIf itโ€™s leaking, and itโ€™s evaporating, we donโ€™t know where it is, and if weโ€™re not protecting it and if it gets polluted.โ€

During an hour-long press conference before the document was made public, Lujan Grisham advocated again for a plan to invest half a billion dollars to develop a market in desalination and oil wastewater treatment technology.

Lujan Grisham described the quantities of brackish water (salty water) in deep underground aquifers to be as vast as an โ€œocean.โ€

โ€œWe should not be using our fresh drinking water in a number of industries,โ€ she said. โ€œBecause we donโ€™t need to make that choice between your safe drinking water and your business. We have the chance here to do both. And thatโ€™s exactly the path weโ€™re on.โ€

Lujan Grisham said that treated produced and brackish water would not be used for drinking water or agricultural sources, but only in manufacturing and industrial uses, at this time.

Itโ€™s unclear how much brackish water would be available to support the governorโ€™s goals, said State Geologist J. Michael Timmons, because the New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources has not received full funding for an aquifer mapping project. An executive budget request asked for $9 million dollars for aquifer mapping.

โ€œThere are probably vast amounts of water, we need to better understand the quantity and quality of that water,โ€ Timmons said. โ€œIt leads to the details of how accessible it is, to draw it through the rock formations. Thereโ€™s a lot of work to be done on our part as a state agency, and others, to better understand those resources.โ€

At the press conference, Lujan Grisham was joined by the governors from Sandia and Santa Clara Pueblos, the New Mexico Environment Department secretary, the Clovis mayor and several lawmakers.

Some water advocates celebrated the priorities in the plan upon first review. Allyson Siwik, the executive director of Gila Resources Information Project, said she was pleased to see watershed pollution protections, restoration projects, stormwater management and drinking water infrastructure included.

Others said the plan did not address the issues facing New Mexicoโ€™s water crisis, including Melissa Troutman, a climate and energy advocate for WildEarth Guardians.

โ€œThe governorโ€™s water plan ignores critical water threats in New Mexico, such as daily oil and gas spills that go unpenalized,โ€ Troutman said in a written statement. โ€œAnd her Strategic Water Supply incentivizes water-intensive industrial development like hydrogen, manufacturing, and fossil fuels that are inappropriate for any arid bioregion.โ€

How did we get here?

Lujan Grisham has been calling for a 50-year water plan since 2019. While lawmakers declined to fund the plan  in prior years, New Mexico In Depth reported lawmakers provided $250,000 annually for the 50-year water plan and granted $500,000 in a one-time appropriation to the Office of the State Engineer in 2023.

A draft of the 50-year water plan circulated in 2022. What was presented today, โ€œevolvedโ€ from that draft, said the governorโ€™s spokesperson Maddy Hayden.

โ€œThe Action Plan released today evolved from the draft 50-Year Water Plan shared with the public and Water Task Force members in 2022 and reflects the Governorโ€™s priority actions to provide water security for future New Mexicans,โ€ Hayden wrote.

Hayden continued to say that the plan  โ€œcomplements many ongoing state agency programsโ€ and that the implementation will have community involvement.

The 50-year plan is separate from the state water plans, which must be reviewed every five years.

The action plan is based on input from state agencies, a 29-member task force, two working groups which focused on tribal water and acequias, and a 192-page report analyzing the science of climate change impacts based on peer-reviewed research in New Mexico.

It bears little resemblance to those other reports.

The New Mexico Water Policy and Infrastructure Taskforce led by state environmental agencies, but also with lawmakers, conservation nonprofits, local water districts, tribal governments and more, issued a 90-page report that included detailed recommendations for funding more data collection. The group outlined dollar amounts for future legislation and staffing levels to sustain these water plans.

The 50-year action plan asks for recurring funding of $1.25 million per year for aquifer mapping and any additional funds would provide more than 100 monitoring wells in the next 12 years.

The other funding request in the plan asks for $500 million in 2024 and 2025 for the Strategic Water Supply Project. The โ€œReturn on Investmentโ€ for that project, according to the document, would be 100,000 acre feet of new water by 2028. By 2035, the report says, 50,000 feet to treat brackish water would be available for โ€œrecharging freshwater aquifers,โ€ or used for โ€œcommunities, farms, aquatic ecosystems and interstate compact compliance.โ€

The report assigns deadlines for actions in the next few years, but does not indicate how much the goals cost to accomplish.

In one section, the report says in order to address contaminated groundwater across hundreds of sites โ€“ including legacy uranium sites, petroleum releases and other polluted spots, New Mexico will โ€œdevelop a dashboard of all known contaminated groundwater sites, including the status and estimated cost of cleanup for each site.โ€

It would then, โ€œlaunch a state program to pay for the remediation of 100 neglected sites with no responsible party,โ€ by 2025.

The #USGS & @BLMNational have release a report with new oil and gas surface management guidance to support successful #reclamation at existing and future well pads — USGS

Click the link to read the release on the USGS website:

The report provides specific and comprehensive reclamation guidance for surface oil and gas exploration and development.ย 

The U. S. Geological Survey, in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management, recently published anย oil and gas reclamation techniques and methods reportย that will, for the first time, give land managers and oil and gas operators specific tools to successfully reclaim disturbed lands during and after oil and gas activities.ย 

Pronghorns using habitat near oil and gas infrastructure. Sources/Usage: Public Domain.

Resource inventory, monitoring and protection of oil and gas sites are mandated by federal statutes and regulations, yet this is the first publication defining standards and guidelines for how to reclaim, monitor, and successfully reclaim disturbed oil and gas sites available at a national level. 

The report also emphasizes the importance of best management practices, clear standards, effective monitoring and minimizing surface disturbance for successful land reclamation. 

Initiated through an interagency agreement with the BLM, USGS and BLM drew upon existing federal reclamation policy, scientific literature review, practical field experience and expertise from various sources such as federal and state agencies, oil and gas contractors, and academia to produce the document, intended to be used for each reclamation step from start to finish.

“The BLMโ€™s land management experience and the USGSโ€™s best available science come together to create this powerful tool in the toolbox for federal agencies working on surface management of oil and gas to ensure environmentally responsible outcomes,โ€ saidย Benjamin Gruber, BLM Acting Assistant Director for Energy, Minerals and Realty Management. โ€œWeโ€™re proud to partner with the USGS to produce this guide that is relevant for all parts of the processโ€”from the time a company develops its drilling application to monitoring reclamation activities after wells are plugged.โ€

Successful oil and gas Pad reclamation established grass Utah May 17, 2022. Sources/Usage: Public Domain.

New, comprehensive guidelines

Prior to this report, the industry relied on a set of guidelines known as the โ€˜Gold Bookโ€™ for practical information about oil and gas leasing and permitting, operations, bonding and reclamation planning processes. However, the Gold Book lacks the type of precise guidance often found in instructional memorandums and handbooks produced by surface management agency offices, multi-jurisdictional groups or state agencies. 

To maximize the efficacy of reclamation efforts, a set of national guidance and policies specific to oil and gas monitoring and assessment were needed.

This new USGS-BLM report supplements the Gold Book and other existing guidance by providing thorough and definitive steps and metrics for reclamation surface management. The report provides these kinds of uniform monitoring protocols and standards covering standardized soil and vegetation field monitoring methods, indicators, benchmarks, appropriate designs and analyses and electronic data capture and repositories supports planning procedures, leasing, permitting processes and bond release decisions.

While it was designed to be specific to the oil and gas industry, many of the reportโ€™s concepts and practices hold the potential to benefit reclamation of other fluid minerals development and land disturbance, including wind and solar energy development.

Vegetation data collection at a reclaimed wellpad April 26, 2021. Sources/Usage: Public Domain.

Leveraging ecological science to achieve success

Land reclamation, in essence, is aimed at techniques that set highly disturbed or degraded ecosystems on a trajectory that benefits native plants and animals and restores functioning habitats and ecological communities similar to surrounding, naturally occurring environments. During this process, the impacts of oil and gas development are minimized. 

This means a major component of land reclamation involves repopulating the landscape with locally appropriate vegetation. Therefore, the report provides useful information about repositories and data collection platforms such as the Landscape Data CommonsEsri ArcGIS Online Survey123, the Database for Inventory Monitoring and Assessment (DIMA) and LandPKS

The report also provides guidance for developing quantitative benchmarks to determine if erosion and vegetation standards have been met, including indicators of erosion and site stability, species composition and community structure.

โ€œThis technical publication provides a solid foundation based on current ecological science. It is the product of a collaborative effort between leading ecologists and reclamation scientists at the BLM, USGS, other agencies, and private organizations,โ€ said USGS Deputy Associate Director for Ecosystems Paul Wagner. โ€œThe report addresses the need for well-managed data collection to inform reclamation plans, operations, approval decisions, and adaptive management strategies.โ€

Factors such as climate change, drought, intense storms, swings in temperature and invasive species all affect seedling survival rates. Ensuring that seedlings survive is crucial for agencies and operators to meet federal requirements and achieve reclamation success.

Successful reclamation is achieved when the standards defining soil and vegetation recovery are met, and a self-sustaining, vigorous, diverse, native, or approved plant community that minimizes visual land disturbance, provides forage, stabilizes soils and prevents noxious weeds from taking hold is in place.

Near Farmington, New Mexico. Photo credit: USGS

Who does this report support?

In conjunction with the Gold Book, this report supports the BLM โ€” the largest surface management agency in the U.S. โ€” with tools to monitor oil and gas reclamation and ensure environmentally responsible outcomes. BLM field office staff guide operators to create reclamation plans and to ensure that reclamation goals and expectations are clear. They inspect reclamation projectsโ€™ progress and status, complete quality assessments and quality control of operatorsโ€™ monitoring data, and provide feedback. 

This report will also be particularly useful for operators and contractors who conduct oil and gas activities on U.S. federal or Tribal lands, surface management agencies who are responsible for advising and enforcing those activities, stewards of private lands and other landowner reclamation projects.

Reclamation has several phases, including interim and final reclamation, which each have differing overall goals. The report can help foster relationships between surface management agencies and operators, highlight timeframes, and provide operators with specific steps and goals in the reclamation process. 

The report may prove particularly useful for restoration efforts funded by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, which provides $4.7 billion for orphaned well site plugging, remediation and reclamation across federal, Tribal, state and private lands (see Through President Bidenโ€™s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, 24 States Set to Begin Plugging Over 10,000 Orphaned Wells). 

Read the full report online:ย Oil and gas reclamationโ€”Operations, monitoring methods, and standards: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods

USFWS, BLM, and USGS examining a large, newly reclaimed oil or gas pad. Sources/Usage: Public Domain.

Energy Guru Says Energy Gap Can be Bridged — Writers on the Range #ActOnClimate

Click the link to read the article on the Writers on the Range website (David Marston):

January 22, 2024

The experts tell us an energy gap looms. Fossil fuels are phasing out, and solar and wind power canโ€™t produce enough electricity to meet the demand in coming decades.

But thatโ€™s not the thinking of Amory Lovins, the 76-year-old co-founder of RMI, formerly the Rocky Mountain Institute in western Colorado.

A Harvard and Oxford dropout whoโ€™s been called the โ€œEinstein of Energy Efficiency, Lovins said recently: โ€œIf we do the right things, weโ€™ll look back and ask each other, โ€˜What was all the fuss about?โ€™โ€

Lovins became famous in the 1970s after his research told him that building more polluting coal-fired power plants was a destructive mistake. His solution then was greater efficiency and reliance on renewables, and they, he insists, are still the answer.

โ€œThough itโ€™s invisible, efficiency will cut 50% of energy use and up to 80% if we do the right things,โ€ he told me recently. โ€œMost of the energy we use is wasted, which makes it much cheaper to save it, rather than buy it or burn it.โ€

According to a recent Princeton paper, heโ€™s right: 84% of all energy consumed goes to waste during delivery or by leakage.

To prove it decades ago, he built a passive solar, super-insulated house at 7,100 feet of elevation in Old Snowmass, Colorado. It never had a heating system though winters regularly recorded 40 degrees below-zero temperatures.

When I arrived there recently at 8 a.m. it was 12 degrees F. Yet the house featured banana and papaya trees growing in natural light around a koi pond.

We became acquainted when he read my January 2023 Writers on the Range column entitled; โ€œThe energy gap nobody wants to tussle with.โ€ Iโ€™d advocated building small modular nuclear reactors to bolster the grid when the wind doesnโ€™t blow and the sun doesnโ€™t shine.

The Crossing Trails Wind Farm between Kit Carson and Seibert, about 150 miles east of Denver, has an installed capacity of 104 megawatts, which goes to Tri-State Generation and Transmission. Photo/Allen Best

Lovins became famous in the 1970s after his research told him that building more polluting coal-fired power plants was a destructive mistake. His solution then was greater efficiency and reliance on renewables, and they, he insists, are still the answer.

โ€œThough itโ€™s invisible, efficiency will cut 50% of energy use and up to 80% if we do the right things,โ€ he told me recently. โ€œMost of the energy we use is wasted, which makes it much cheaper to save it, rather than buy it or burn it.โ€

According to a recent Princeton paper, heโ€™s right: 84% of all energy consumed goes to waste during delivery or by leakage.

To prove it decades ago, he built a passive solar, super-insulated house at 7,100 feet of elevation in Old Snowmass, Colorado. It never had a heating system though winters regularly recorded 40 degrees below-zero temperatures.

When I arrived there recently at 8 a.m. it was 12 degrees F. Yet the house featured banana and papaya trees growing in natural light around a koi pond.

We became acquainted when he read my January 2023 Writers on the Range column entitled; โ€œThe energy gap nobody wants to tussle with.โ€ Iโ€™d advocated building small modular nuclear reactors to bolster the grid when the wind doesnโ€™t blow and the sun doesnโ€™t shine.

Lovins called to set me straight, and after a second conversation and more research, Iโ€™m beginning to think heโ€™s right.

Though Lovins has many solutions for the energy gap, he touts three major ways to find more energy in what we already do. Tops on the list is changing how we build and retrofit existing structures because buildings consume 75% of the electricity we buy.

Most energy jobs in the United States are already increasing efficiency, ranging from upgrading windows and other retrofits, far outpacing the shrinking fossil fuels industry. (energy.gov)

As one example, Lovins advocates โ€œoutsulationโ€ for older structures, defined as adding exterior insulating panels to save heat. Courtesy of the European Union, my Irish in-laws recently had their house โ€œwrappedโ€ and saw their heating bills plummet.

His second way is demand-response, which Lovins calls flexiwatts. An example is cycling air conditioners off for 15-30 minutes at a time, a barely noticeable adjustment that cuts demand for peaker-power plants, those big emitters of greenhouse gases. 

His third way is using renewables more effectively. Diversifying renewables by location and type within a region evens gaps from windless and cloudy weather.

Coyote Gulch’s shiny new Leaf May 13, 2023

As for electric cars being a drain on the grid, they will prove to be sources of electricity, he said, as the next generation batteries will be cheaper and likely have double the storage. Daytime solar stored in vehicles will be bi-directional, spooling out power during peak evening demand.

Lovins also cites LED lights dramatically cutting the cost of energy. In just a decade, theyโ€™ve become 30 times more efficient, 20 times brighter and 10 times cheaper.

Lovins is quick to admit that an energy gap remains, but he predicts a single-digit gapโ€”6%โ€”between what renewables produce and whatโ€™s needed. That, he said, can be made up by stored, green hydrogen or ammonia, manufactured from water and air with solar energy, and burned in existing gas plants.

As for nuclear power plants, Lovins said even the best-case scenarios for the next generation of nuclear generators are at least a decade away, and at least eight times more costly than renewables today.

โ€œItโ€™s better to use fast, cheap and certain rather than slow, costly and speculative,โ€ he said.

Though cutting loose from fossil fuels is a massive undertaking, Lovins said America is on track. โ€œWe are on or ahead of schedule on renewables, with 85% of net new additions to the grid from renewables, and $1 billion invested in solar in the United States daily.โ€

For these reasons and more, Lovins sees our energy future as more of what weโ€™re already doingโ€”only smarter and faster. [ed. emphasis mine]

Letโ€™s hope that heโ€™s right. Dave Marston is the publisher of Writers on the Range,ย writersontherange.org, an independent nonprofit that exists to spur lively dialog about the West. He lives in Durango, Colorado.

Denver Waterโ€™s administration building is powered by solar panels. Photo credit: Denver Water.

Forest Service withdraws key permit for controversial #Utah oil-train project opposed by Coloradans — #Colorado Newsline #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

A train of tanker cars travels the tracks along the Colorado River near Cameo on May 16, 2023. (Chase Woodruff/Colorado Newsline)

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Newsline website (Chase Woodruff):

January 18, 2024

A controversial Utah oil-train proposal opposed by Colorado communities and environmentalists was dealt another blow this week when the U.S. Forest Service withdrew a key permit for the project.

In an announcement published Wednesday, Ashley National Forest Supervisor Susan Eickhoff blocked the issuance of a permit to the Uinta Basin Railway to construct 12 miles of railroad track through a protected area of the national forest in northeast Utah. The stretch of track in question is part of the proposed railwayโ€™s 88-mile connection between the oil fields of eastern Utahโ€™s Uinta Basin and the existing national rail network.

The project hasย drawn fierce opposition from Coloradans. A federal โ€œdownline analysisโ€ estimated that 90% of the resulting oil-train traffic โ€” as many as five fully loaded, two-mile-long trains of crude oil tankers per day โ€” would be routed through environmentally sensitive and densely populated areas in Colorado, en route to oil refineries on the Gulf Coast. The oil trains would more than quadrupleย the amount of hazardous materialsย being shipped by rail through many Colorado counties.

Coloradoโ€™s Eagle County and five environmental groups sued to overturn the Uinta Basin Railwayโ€™s approval, and in August 2023 a panel of federal judges ruled that the approval process contained โ€œnumerousโ€ and โ€œsignificantโ€ violations of the National Environmental Policy Act. The ruling vacated portions of the projectโ€™s environmental impact statement and ordered the federal Surface Transportation Board to redo its analysis of key environmental risks.

Because the Forest Serviceโ€™s decision in August 2022 to grant a right-of-way permit to the project was based on that flawed analysis, the agency has withdrawn its decision pending further proceedings at the STB.

This map, included in U.S. Forest Service documents evaluating the Uinta Basin Railway proposal, shows the 88-mile length of the route. Tunnels are shown in yellow.
CREDIT: COURTESY IMAGE

โ€œIf the deficiencies are addressed and resubmitted for consideration, the Forest Service may issue a new decision,โ€ Eickhoff wrote in a Jan. 17 letter.

โ€œThis is wonderful news for the roadless forest in Utahโ€™s Indian Canyon and the wildlife who call it home,โ€ said Ted Zukoski, senior attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity, one of the groups that sued to block the project. โ€œItโ€™s a victory for the Colorado River and nearby communities that would be threatened by oil train accidents and spills, and for residents of the Gulf Coast, where billions of gallons of oil would be refined. If the oil trainโ€™s backers attempt to revive this dangerous scheme, weโ€™ll be there to fight it again.โ€

In a press release, Democratic U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado, who had urged multiple federal agencies to put a stop to the project, applauded the Forest Serviceโ€™s move.

โ€œA derailment along the headwaters of the Colorado River could have catastrophic effects for Coloradoโ€™s communities, water, and environment,โ€ Bennet said. โ€œIโ€™m glad the Forest Service has taken this important step to protect the Colorado River and the tens of millions of people who depend on it.โ€

Backers of the railway project include the Seven County Infrastructure Coalition, a group of Utah county governments in the oil-rich Uinta Basin. The coalitionโ€™s petition for a rehearing of the case by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit was denied in December, though the ruling could still be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

โ€œWeโ€™re still looking at options,โ€ Greg Miles, a Duchesne County commissioner and co-chair of the coalition, said during a Jan. 11 public meeting. โ€œWe may be making a decision here within the next month.โ€

Dirt track to the right leads to a borehole site for a tunnel under the Ashley National Forest roadless area, part of the Uinta Basin Railway proposal which U.S. Forest Service officials approved in July 2022.
CREDIT: AMY HADDEN MARSH/ASPEN JOURNALISM

12 not-so-easy steps to decarbonize the grid: Electrifying will make a difference if that power comes from clean sources — Jonathan P. Thompson (@HighCountryNews) #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Click the link to read the article on The High Country News website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

When it comes to the countryโ€™sย climate change culprits, the biggest offenders lurk in the transportation sector: Altogether, planes, trains and automobiles, etc., emit 28% of the nationโ€™s greenhouse gases, plus other nasty pollutants that harm anyone who lives near highways and airports. Industrial sources โ€” factories, cement plants, steel mills, etc. โ€” spew nearly one-fourth of our climate-warming pollutants, while commercial and residential buildings are responsible for 13%, and agriculture contributes 10%.

Experts generally agree that the best way to reduce all these emissions is to electrify everything: Just replace petroleum-powered vehicles, natural gas-fired heaters and stoves and coal-fired cement kilns and steel furnaces with their electric analogs. After all, an electric vehicleโ€™s tailpipe emits zero greenhouse gases or other pollutants. In fact, electric vehicles donโ€™t even have tailpipes.

There is one nagging little detail, though: The energy producing all that electricity has to come from somewhere, generally from greenhouse gas-emitting fossil fuels. The electric power sector is the nationโ€™s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, after transportation. Electrifying everything might do little more than redistribute emissions from buildings and cars to the power grid. Unless, that is, the power grid is decarbonized, a simple โ€” but monumental โ€” task: The electric power sector needs to quit fossil fuels, cold turkey. And that requires massive investments in new power sources and innovation to remake the grid for a carbon-free world.

SOURCES: Energy Information Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, Oregon Solar Dashboard, California Independent System Operator, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Illustrations by Hannah Agosta/High Country News

$3.5 million
Funding the New Mexico Mortgage Finance Authority has allocated to help install rooftop solar on low-income households. 

21,894 megawatt-hours
Amount of electricity produced by utility-scale solar facilities in Oregon in 2015. 

1.69 million megawatt-hours
Amount produced in 2022.

500 megawatts 
Amount of battery storage on Californiaโ€™s grid in 2018. 

8,000 megawatts
Amount of battery storage on Californiaโ€™s grid today.

SOURCES: Energy Information Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, Oregon Solar Dashboard, California Independent System Operator, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Illustrations by Hannah Agosta/High Country News

103.5%
Amount of Californiaโ€™s total demand met by solar power on May 8, 2022, a record. 

16,044 megawatts
Amount of solar generation on the California grid on Sept. 6, 2023, just after noon, the all-time record so far. 

1,000
Feet of irrigation canal to be covered by solar panels at a Gila River Indian Community project in Arizona.

SOURCES: Energy Information Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, Oregon Solar Dashboard, California Independent System Operator, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Illustrations by Hannah Agosta/High Country News

1.05 billion tons
Amount of coal burned for electricity generation in the U.S. in 2007.

469 million tons
Amount burned in 2022.

7.1 trillion cubic feet
Amount of natural gas burned for electricity generation in the U.S. in 2007.

12.4 trillion cubic feet
Amount burned in 2022.

SOURCES: Energy Information Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, Oregon Solar Dashboard, California Independent System Operator, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Illustrations by Hannah Agosta/High Country News

371.5 million metric tons
Carbon dioxide emissions from burning natural gas to generate electricity in 2007.

661 million metric tons
Amount emitted in 2022.

2.33 billion 
2007 total emissions (natural gas and coal).

1.5 billion
2022 total emissions.

SOURCES: Energy Information Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, Oregon Solar Dashboard, California Independent System Operator, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Illustrations by Hannah Agosta/High Country News

Illustrations by Hannah Agosta/High Country News

Jonathan Thompson is a contributing editor atย 
High Country News. He is the author ofย Sagebrush Empire: How a Remote Utah County Became the Battlefront of American Public Lands.ย 

Yes, Biden broke a promise. And it’s okay: Looking at the administration’s record on public lands and energy — Jonathan P. Thompson (@Land_Desk) #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Pumpjacks in southeastern Utah. Jonathan P. Thompson photo

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

January 16, 2024

A few weeks ago, for myย monthlyย High Country Newsย column, I tried to unravel the puzzle posed by wildly divergent interpretations of President Bidenโ€™s record on climate, fossil fuels, and public lands. On the one hand, the Republican National Committee whined about how the administration is waging a war on energy, particularly fossil fuels. On the other, the college arm of the Democratic National Committee was accusing Biden of โ€œclimate indifference.โ€ย 

My conclusion was more or less this: Biden has been good โ€” maybe the best president โ€” when it comes to protecting certain public lands from fossil fuel energy development, even though he has made some questionable decisions. Thatโ€™s hardly climate indifference. And yet, during his watch, the U.S. oil industry has produced more crude and exported more natural gas than ever before, mostly on the strength of a drilling frenzy in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico. If Bidenโ€™s waging a war on energy, his side is losing. 

In other words, neither side is correct (although I have to say the Republicans are wayoff. What donโ€™t they understand about record-high oil production levels and multi-billion dollar oil corporation profits?). And probably both sides should quit their kvetching.

Some readers seemed to appreciate my willingness to explore the liminal spaces; others not so much. Hereโ€™s an excerpt from one of the responses to the story: 

โ€ฆ I was pretty dismayed over his exclusion of Biden’s central campaign promise, which was ‘No more drilling on Federal land.’  โ€ฆ Why wasn’t this mentioned in Thompson’s piece? โ€ฆ In fact, I found it to be pretty disappointing that none of this was even brought up in his article, especially given how outraged and betrayed many young voters like myself feel re this. โ€ฆ If it was a Republican president who had broken a central campaign promise, my intuition is that it would have been pointed out in an article like the one Thompson wrote.

Iโ€™m pretty sure the letter writer, weโ€™ll call them Jay, isnโ€™t alone in their assessment of the Biden administrationโ€™s stance on federal land drilling โ€” or of my column. And I have to admit, I struggled a little bit with coming up with an honest response that didnโ€™t sound overly cynical. After all, telling someone who is outraged and feeling betrayed to just get over it is a bit harsh. But when it comes to the broken promise thing? Get over it. 

Wait! Donโ€™t stop reading yet. Bear with me as I explain. 

Yes, during the 2020 campaign, Biden did promise to end oil and gas drilling on public lands. I know that because the RNC listed all the instances of such pledges, holding them up โ€” ironically โ€” as evidence that Biden is waging that aforementioned war on energy. And no, he hasnโ€™t done that โ€” and probably wonโ€™t. Promise broken, outrage ensues. 

And I get it. Itโ€™s annoying and maddening to listen to politicians make promises they know they canโ€™t keep. But it also happens all of the time. During the 2020 campaign, Sen. Elizabeth Warren made a very similar promise, even including it in her energy plan. Would she have lived up to it? Highly unlikely. 

The President is not a dictator, thankfully, and canโ€™t simply make a massive change like ending all drilling on federal lands with a snap of the finger. Both Warren and Biden knew that. But that doesnโ€™t mean they were lying in order to secure more votes. Rather they were simply signaling their intent, setting a sort of Platonic-ideal goal to which theyโ€™d aspire and which they might achieve if there was no obstructionist Congress or courts or political gamesmanship to navigate. They are telling a certain type of voters that they will represent their interests, while telling another type (the fossil fuel-fetishizing RNC, for example) that they wonโ€™t. 

All of which is to say that judging a politician on promises kept or broken may not be that productive. Better to judge them on their policies and how they play out on the ground. And the Biden administration has made big strides in this direction, including: 

  • Halting all new oil and gas leasing on federal lands shortly after they took office, a move that had it remained in place would have eventually phased out new drilling. However, the courts shot down the moratorium, forcing the administration to hold new lease sales.
  • But those new sales donโ€™t look like the lease sales of old. For example, the BLM quietly pulled over 100 parcels from Wyoming auctions to protect sage grouse and big game habitat, and has angered industry by allegedly withholding some of the most productive parcels.
  • Restoring the original boundaries of Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monuments, putting those lands off-limits to new oil and gas leases or mining claims. 
  • Banning โ€” for the next 20 years โ€” new oil and gas leasing within a 10-mile radius of New Mexicoโ€™s Chaco Culture National Historical Park and canceling Trump-era oil and gas leases in Alaskaโ€™s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
  • Proposing the withdrawal of nearly 4 million acres of federal land from new oil and gas leases in western Colorado and Wyomingโ€™s Red Desert.
  • Finalizing a plan to declare an additional 225,000 acres of the Thompson Divide in western Coloradoโ€™s high country off-limits to new oil and gas leasing and mining claims for the next 20 years.
  • Raising minimum bids for oil and gas leases and royalty rates on new drilling from 12.5% to 16.67% and increased reclamation bond amounts to help ensure that the oil companies โ€” not the taxpayers โ€” clean up the messes they make. 
  • Establishing the Baaj Nwaavjo Iโ€™tah Kukveniโ€”Ancestral Footprints of the Grand Canyon National Monument in northern Arizona, thereby protecting nearly 1 million acres from potential uranium mining.

  • Finalizing Environmental Protection Agency rules aimed at reducing methane emissions from oil and gas infrastructure, which are expected to prevent the release of 58 million tons of methane emissions โ€” the short-term climate-warming equivalent 4.9 billion tons of carbon dioxide* โ€” as well as 16 million tons of health-harming volatile organic compounds.
  • Implementing a new per-ton fee on methane emissions from oil and gas facilities, which should incentivize petroleum companies to cut not only that potent greenhouse gas, but also to reduce emissions of human-harming compounds that typically spew from wells.  
  • Proposing a Bureau of Land Management rule that would put conservation on a par with other public land uses, such as energy development and grazing.
  • Allocating billions of dollars to states and tribes to plug and reclaim abandoned and orphaned oil and gas wells that are prone to leakage and generally make a mess of things. This not only is good for the environment, but it is helping to create a new well-plugging industry in places where drilling has declined, thereby creating a land-healing economy. 

Not too shabby. And Iโ€™d say these actions do show that Biden has lived up to the intent behind his pledge, if not living up to the word of the promise. At least for the most part. 

Of course, all that good is offset at least somewhat by the administrationโ€™s approval of ConocoPhillipsโ€™ massive Willow oil and gas development in Alaska. Biden aimed for a sort of compromise, allowing for three drilling sites rather than the proposed five, nearly cutting the project in half. And yet the sheer magnitude of the development, which will include nearly 200 miles of roads and pipelines and various other infrastructure, is mind-numbing still. And putting some other Arctic lands off-limits to drilling doesnโ€™t exactly make up for the impacts this will wreak on the climate and the local environment and nearby communities. 

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Land Management under Biden issued 3,800 drilling permits for public lands, about 2,500 of which were in the Permian Basin, during fiscal year 2023. Thatโ€™s a lot, and seems to fly right in the face of Bidenโ€™s pledge to end federal land drilling. And, yes, it is more than Trump issued during his first two years in office, but far fewer than in Trumpโ€™s last two years. (Not that comparing anyone to Trump on these issues does anyone any good, since presidents donโ€™t control this sort of thing. The W. Bush administration issued nearly 7,000 permits during a single year, by the way).

At first glance it may look like Biden handed out an insane number of permits during his first year in office. In fact, most of the permits for fiscal year 2021 were issued by Trump in his final months in office. Apparently oil companies feared Biden would cut off the spout, so they went crazy with applications. Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

At times it can seem as if the Biden administration is erratically indecisive on these issues. But I would say that what appears to be fickleness is actually shrewd political pragmatism. Had Biden canceled Willow altogether, he would have drawn the ire of Sen. Lisa Murkowski, one of the few rational Republicans in Congress, and Rep. Mary Peltola, a Democrat and Native Alaskan who is an ardent supporter of Willow and Alaska energy development in general. And attempting to directly thwart Permian Basin drilling by shutting down permitting or leasing there would threaten the massive budget surpluses resulting from an oil and gas tax revenue bonanza, which in turn would surely cause problems for the Democrats who make up most of the stateโ€™s political leadership, from the governor to the congressional delegation to the state legislature. Biden would alienate his allies and then heโ€™d likely lose in court. [ed. emphasis mine]

It is disappointing that our leaders have to play these games, especially given whatโ€™s at stake. But is it a betrayal? Or climate indifference? I think not. As for the outrage, I would suggest aiming it not at Biden, but at the oil corporations pumping out crude โ€” and raking in profit โ€” at record high levels, all the while whining about even the most incremental efforts to slow them down and protect the planet. [ed. emphasis mine]

Five Factors to Explain the Record Heat in 2023 — NASA Earth Observatory

Earth was record warm in 2023. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

Click the link to read the article on the NASA Earth Observatory website:

NASA announced that 2023 was the hottest year on record, according to an analysis of annual global average temperatures by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Scientists who maintain the temperature record, which begins in 1880, calculate a global temperature anomaly each year to determine how much temperatures have changed compared to temperatures from 1951โ€“1980.

Every month from June through December 2023 came in as the hottest month on record. July ranked as the hottest month ever recorded.

But what caused 2023, especially the second half of it, to be so hot? Scientists asked themselves this same question. Here is a breakdown of primary factors that scientists considered to explain the record-breaking heat.

The long-term rise in greenhouse gases is the primary driver.

For more than 100 years, humans have been burning fossil fuels such as coal, gas, and oil to power everything from lightbulbs and cars to factories and cities. These actions, along with changes in land use, have led to a rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.ย Greenhouse gasesย act like a blanket trapping heat around the planet. The more of them you add, the thicker that blanket becomes, further heating Earth.

Carbon Dioxide swirling around the Earth. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

In May 2023, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere peaked at 424 parts per million at NOAAโ€™s Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The annual peak has been steadily rising since measurements began in 1958. (Other global carbon measurement projects showed similarly high numbers.) Extending the record back even further with ice cores, carbon dioxide concentrations are the highest they have been in at least 800,000 years.

โ€œWeโ€™re going to continue to have records be broken because the baseline temperature is moving up all the time,โ€ said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASAโ€™s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City. โ€œThe cause of that warming trend over the last 50 to 60 years is dominated by our changes to greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide and methane.โ€

The return of El Niรฑo added to the heat.

On top of the long-term global warming trend are natural variations in the climate. One of the largest sources of such year-to-year variability is the El Niรฑo Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which occurs in the tropical Pacific.

June 1 – 10, 2023. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

ENSO transitions between three phases: El Niรฑo, La Niรฑa, and neutral, or average. During El Niรฑo, trade winds weaken; that is, winds that normally blow from east to west in the tropical Pacific weaken. The sea surface around the equator in the central and eastern Pacific near South America also becomes warmer (and higher) than normal. El Niรฑo often coincides with the warmest years in the global average.

During La Niรฑa, the opposite happens: the trade winds strengthen and the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are cooler than normal. This can help offset some of the rising temperatures from long-term global warming.

From 2020โ€“2022, the Pacific saw three years of La Niรฑa conditions. Then El Niรฑo returnedbeginning in May 2023. This El Niรฑo has not yet been as strong as those in 2015โ€“2016 or 1997โ€“1998, both of which caused large global average temperature spikes. However, when you add this ocean warming to the long-term warming trend from greenhouse gases, the start of El Niรฑo helped temperatures jump enough to create a new record for heat.

โ€œFor the most part, itโ€™s us and El Niรฑo,โ€ said Josh Willis, a climate scientist at NASAโ€™s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. โ€œAt the end of the day, humans are heating the planet, and El Niรฑo is dancing on our heads.โ€

Globally, long-term ocean warming and hotter-than-normal sea surface temperatures played a part.

Looking more broadly, the tropical Pacific wasnโ€™t the only part of the ocean that was hotter than normal this year. The global sea surface temperatureย set new records in 2023, with the North Atlantic and other parts of the ocean experiencing several marine heat waves.

August 21, 2023. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

โ€œJust like global temperatures, ocean temperatures are on the rise,โ€ said Willis. โ€œThey have been rising for the last century or more, and they are not slowing down. If anything, they are speeding up.โ€

Whatโ€™s behind the rise in ocean temperatures? Greenhouse gases warming the planet. Around 90 percent of the heat trapped by rising greenhouse gases is absorbed by the ocean. That means that as greenhouse gases continue to increase, so will ocean temperatures, which raises temperatures across the globe.

Aerosols are decreasing, so they are no longer slowing the rise in temperatures.

Another global trend that scientists are monitoring is a change in aerosols in the atmosphere.ย Aerosolsย are small particles in the airโ€”such as smoke, dust, volcanic gases, sea spray, air pollution or sootโ€”that canย impact the climate. Airborne particles can either reflect sunlight, causing a slight cooling of the air, or absorb sunlight, causing a slight warming of it.

June 26, 2023. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

As governments have passed regulations to reduce air pollution and improve air quality, the abundance of aerosols has been decreasing in most areas. Many of these human-produced particles are the type that cool the climate slightly, so with less of them in the air, the result is a slight warming effect. But this contribution is quite small in comparison to the much greater warming from rising greenhouse gases.

Scientists at NASA and around the world are investigating how a reduction in aerosols from new shipping regulations potentially change how much solar energy is reflected back into space. While these changes can be notable on regional scales, the global impact is likely small, Schmidt said.

Scientists found that the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haโ€˜apai volcanic eruption did not substantially add to the record heat.

In January 2022, the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haโ€˜apai undersea volcano blasted an unprecedented amount of water vapor and fine particles, or aerosols, into the stratosphere. Water vapor, a greenhouse gas, can produce a warming effect on the atmosphere, so scientists investigated the impact of the eruption on the global temperature.ย Sulfate aerosols from eruptions, on the other hand, have sometimes led to some global cooling events.

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haโ€˜apai volcanic eruption. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory

recent study found that the volcanic sulfate aerosols reflected some sunlight away from Earthโ€™s surface, leading to a slight cooling of less than 0.1 degrees in the southern hemisphere following the eruption. Essentially, the warming that occurred from the increase in water vapor in the stratosphere was offset by the cooling caused by volcanic sulfate aerosols leading to a slight cooling lower in the atmosphere. This means the eruption likely did not add to the record heat in 2023.

โ€œWe are very interested in the weather and extremes of any particular year because those are the things that impact us,โ€ said Schmidt. โ€œBut the key difference between this decade and the ones before is that the temperatures keep rising because of our activities, principally the burning of fossil fuels.โ€

NASA Earth Observatory map (top) by Lauren Dauphin, based on data from the NASAย Goddard Institute for Space Studies.ย Carbon dioxide animationย by Helen-Nicole Kostis, NASAโ€™s Scientific Visualization Studio.ย Sea surface height anomaly mapย by Lauren Dauphin, using modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2023) processed by the European Space Agency and further processed by Josh Willis, Severin Fournier, and Kevin Marlis/NASA/JPL-Caltech.ย Sea surface temperature anomaly mapย by Lauren Dauphin, using data from the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) project.ย Wildland fire smoke imageย by Lauren Dauphin, using Terra MODIS data from NASA EOSDISย LANCEย andย GIBS/Worldview.ย Eruption imageย courtesy of NOAA and theย National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Serviceย (NESDIS). Story by Angela Colbert (NASA JPL), with Sally Younger (NASA JPL).

References & Resources

About that FB EV-bashing meme — Jonathan P. Thompson (@Land_Desk) #ActOnClimate

The Bingham Canyon Copper Mine in Utah, one of the planetโ€™s largest human-made excavations. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

January 10, 2024

Perhaps youโ€™ve seen the latest viral Facebook meme about the ungodly amount of mined material needed to manufacture an electric vehicle. If not, youโ€™ve probably seen one like it, maybe bashing EVs, maybe solar panels or wind turbines or some other clean energy technology (often accompanied by a gory image of a purported lithium mine). The implication is always the same: That โ€œgreenโ€ technology youโ€™re so fired up about isnโ€™t green at all โ€” in fact, itโ€™s destroying the earth.ย 

Normally I wouldnโ€™t give these things a second thought. After all, they are memes, which by their very nature are simplistic and aimed at triggering the most primal emotional response, usually some flavor of fear. 

But this particular one โ€” an inventory of the many tons of ore that must be mined to produce the materials in a Tesla model Y battery โ€” has been especially infectious, it seems, and has made its way onto many of my social media palsโ€™ feeds. Some of my friends have used it to argue against purchasing an EV, others have rightly questioned its veracity, while still others have posted counter-memes debunking it. 

Since the Land Desk covers lithium mining and other impacts of the clean energy transition, I figured Iโ€™d use this meme โ€” circulated by someone named Jackie โ€” as an opportunity to add some context. Thatโ€™s because, regardless of whether the meme is accurate or not, it does bring up an important question: Are electric vehicles merely an instance of problem shifting, or transferring the equivalent environmental impacts from one technology to another? 

The post in question, letโ€™s call it Jackieโ€™s Meme, claims that 250 tons of earth must be moved to obtain the lithium, nickel, manganese, and cobalt in a typical EV battery, and a Caterpillar 994A used for this purpose would burn about 264 gallons of diesel in 12 hours, offsetting the carbon emissions reductions youโ€™d get from driving the car.

These are certainly eye-opening numbers, even if they are a bit off (I came up with a figure of 69 tons of material moved, not 250, but more on that later). But they are also irrelevant in isolation, since the only thing we can conclude is that manufacturing an EV requires mining, just like mining was required to produce the laptop Iโ€™m writing this on, the desk itโ€™s sitting atop, and the data center responsible for delivering the information to you. In other words, building an EV has an impact on the environment, maybe even a big one. 

Coyote Gulch’s shiny new Leaf May 13, 2023

But you donโ€™t buy an EV because itโ€™s good for the environment. You buy it because itโ€™s less bad for the environment than a conventional vehicle (and for other reasons, such as performance, fuel savings, and so forth). Without including a comparison of how much material and mining is needed for a conventional vehicle vs. an electric one, the meme is useless, meant only to scare people away from doing anything.

And that may have been the intent. But another reason for the omission is that accurate apples to apples comparisons of the total amount of mined material needed for an average ICE vehicle vs. an average EV are hard to find. That said, we do know that EVs generally are heavier than their gas-powered counterparts due to the large, dense batteries (although they have far fewer moving parts). And we do know that EVs require far more of certain minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. 

This IEA graphic is a good one for those particular minerals:

Source: International Energy Agency

Manufacturing an electric vehicle, then, requires about six times as much of the listed materials as a conventional car. I suspect this disparity might shrink somewhat if steel (iron), aluminum, and molybdenum were also included, but it wouldnโ€™t change the basic fact: EVs are more mineral intensive than ICE cars. 

And whether the mineral is steel or nickel, cobalt or platinum, extracting it requires moving, hauling, milling, and smelting huge amounts of rock to get a relatively minuscule amount of target mineral. Thatโ€™s why the Bingham Copper Mine near Salt Lake City is 2.5 miles wide and nearly 4,000 feet deep. And the more rock and ore you mine, the larger the volume of waste, or tailings and waste rock and, generally speaking, the greater the environmental impact1. Hereโ€™s a great graphic showing the ratio of total material moved to ore mined to commodity produced: 

From the Energy Transitions Commission. Hat-tip to Hannah Ritchieโ€™s excellent Sustainability by the Numbers newsletter for pointing me to this resource.

Jackie apparently used this sort of math to get to the 250-tons figure. I think sheโ€™s off: using the IEA figures and the above graphic, I find that an EV would actually require moving about 69 tons of earth. But when youโ€™re talking dozens of tons, it doesnโ€™t really matter that much. Jackieโ€™s point still stands: Youโ€™ve gotta mine a lot of stuff to make an EV.  

So, go ahead, buy that gasoline guzzler and feel good about it. Youโ€™re doing the planet a favor! 

Just kidding. 

Sure, maybe when they come out the factory door, a new EV has a larger environmental footprint than its gasoline-powered counterpart. But once you start driving the things, the gasoline carโ€™s impact grows at a much faster rate than the EVโ€™s because of, well, gasoline. 

Letโ€™s say you live in New Mexico, and drive your car about 14,400 miles per year (the average for the state per registered vehicle), and you have an average car that gets about 22 miles per gallon. Youโ€™ll burn through 654 gallons of gasoline and your tailpipe will spew out about 6.4 tons of climate-warming carbon dioxide each year, along with a nasty cocktail of health-harming and smog-forming pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, benzene, and particulates.

Thatโ€™s on top of the impacts of drilling for the oil from which the gasoline is derived. Drilling and hydraulic fracturing a single well can use 10 million gallons or more of fresh water. The 1,300 gallons of crude oil needed to produce your carโ€™s annual gasoline use will be accompanied by as much as 7,800 gallons of briney, contaminated wastewater that must be disposed of โ€” often in deep injection wells that can trigger earthquakes. Planet-warming methane, along with harmful volatile organic compounds, can spew from oil wells, pipelines, and refineries. Pipelines rupture regularly, spilling wastewater, oil, or diesel โ€” sometimes they even explode. And petroleum refineries are major pollution sources as well. 

Electric vehicles donโ€™t have tailpipes, so youโ€™re not polluting the neighborhood by driving one around2. Yes, electric vehicles must be charged, and yes, some of that electricity is likely to be generated by burning fossil fuels, which requires extraction and creates pollution and other environmental impacts. But EVs generally are more efficient than gasoline powered cars, especially the gargantuan SUVs Americans are so enamored with, so even if you charge on a natural gas-generation-dominated grid youโ€™re likely emitting less carbon per mile. Study after cradle-to-grave study has found that EVs have lower emissions over their lifecycle than their gasoline-powered counterparts, even when battery production3 and raw material mining is accounted for.

This is a Euro-centric graph from Carbon Brief, but it gets the point across. And believe me, an average โ€œEuro carโ€ is likely far more efficient than an average U.S. conventional car. Source: Carbon Brief.

EVsโ€™ environmental advantages will continue to build as the electricity grid is further decarbonized and fossil fuel generation is displaced by solar, wind, geothermal, small hydropower, and nuclear. Large-scale battery recycling efforts are ramping up, which will reduce the amount of mining needed to build the things, and battery technology is advancing: They are becoming more energy dense and new lithium-, cobalt-, and nickel-free batteries are being developed. Researchers and startups are working to extract lithium from geothermal brine, allowing them to generate electricity and produce battery materials in one shot. And some hardrock mining operations are electrifying their haul trucks and other equipment and building solar arrays to power operations.

The upshot: If you need to purchase a new vehicle, and youโ€™re trying to choose between an electric one or a gasoline-powered one, the EV probably would be a better choice for the environment over the long haul โ€” regardless of the scare-memes. 

Still, even that meme serves a purpose: It reminds us that we wonโ€™t get out of this mess by producing and consuming more stuff, no matter how โ€œgreenโ€ it may be. [ed. emphasis mine] Simply clogging up the roads with electric vehicles, blanketing the deserts with solar panels, building new dams, or filling our homes with โ€œsustainableโ€ goods wonโ€™t solve the problems created in the first place by overconsumption and waste. Economic and cultural systems must be overhauled or even overthrown. And the incessant hunger for more, more, more must be tempered at last.

New Research Explores a Restorative #Climate Path for the Earth — Inside Climate News

Source: ClimateScience โ€“ Economics & Climate from ClimaTalk: ClimaTalk

Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Bob Berwyn):

January 9, 2024

Existing green growth policies are leading nowhere fast, so scientists say itโ€™s worth exploring alternatives like degrowth to stay within planetary boundaries.

With Earthโ€™s average annual temperature speeding toward 1.5 degrees Celsius faster than expected and global climate policy on a treadmill, an increasing number of researchers say itโ€™s time to consider a โ€œrestorative pathwayโ€ to avoid the worst ecological and social outcomes of global warming.

In a study published today in Environmental Research Letters, an international team of scientists wrote that reaching global goals could require focusing on ways to drive rapid changes in the way people live, move, work and eat; on making sure that global wealth is distributed more equitably; and on restoring and protecting biodiversity and ecosystems like forests, oceans, fields and rivers that are critical to removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The restorative approach should be considered soon because the pace of climate impacts to ecosystems and communities is speeding up, the authors said. Climate extremes are outpacing decades of efforts to cap global warming with tools like carbon trading and offsets. Those are hallmarks of the green growth path mapped out by various United Nations-sponsored climate pacts like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, as well other ancillary agreements. They all aim to keep growing the global economy while reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050โ€”partly based on assuming that large quantities of carbon dioxide will be directly removed from the air and stored by giant machines by then.ย 

Many countries, like France, Sweden and the United States, have reduced emissions while continuing to grow their economiesโ€”called decouplingโ€”over the last few decades, but research shows itโ€™s not happening nearly fast enough to cap global warming. 

Total global emissions, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the global average temperature all climbed to record highs during the past 30 years, amounting to about half the total greenhouse gas accumulations in the atmosphere since the start of the industrial age. 

โ€œItโ€™s almost too late. We need to get cracking with this,โ€ said Manfred Lenzen, a sustainability researcher at the University of Sydney and co-author of the new paper.  โ€œA lot of people think 1.5 is dead already, that we have to realistically aim for staying below 2C,โ€ he said, adding that green growthโ€”decoupling emissions from economic expansionโ€”might have worked if the world had taken it seriously in 2000. 

Starting then, it would have taken only a 2 percent annual reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to reach net zero by 2050; starting now means cutting global emissions by 7 percent a year, but the green growth approach is not cutting emissions by anywhere near the required rate, he said. And, particularly as outlined in the policy guiding reports fromย International Panel on Climate Change, it relies on deployment of unproven technologies.

A future of carbon removal? Credit: Inside Climate News

Carbon-removal technology, for example, is still decades away from deployment at a scale that would match the IPCCโ€™s pathways to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, as per the Paris Climate Agreement, said Lenzen. 

Lenzen also co-authored a 2021 paper describing a โ€œdegrowthโ€ alternative to the existing IPCC options, based on the idea of shrinking economies in rich countries in a controlled way by reducing production and consumption, in order to protect natural resources and reduce environmental damage while improving well-being.

Degrowth Research is Going Mainstream

2023 study in The Lancet Planetary Health journal showed that, even in countries with falling emissions and growing economies, emissions are not declining at rates compliant with the Paris Agreement. At the current rates, it would take those countries on average more than 220 years to reduce their emissions by 95 percent, the goal targeted for 2050.

The authors of that study wrote that those decoupling rates in high-income countries โ€œcannot legitimately be considered green โ€ฆ To achieve Paris-compliant emission reductions, high-income countries will need to pursue post-growth demand-reduction strategies, reorienting the economy towards sufficiency, equity, and human wellbeing, while also accelerating technological change and efficiency improvements.โ€

Another 2023 paper in Nature described widespread scientific skepticism, especially in high-income countries, about the existing strain of tech-driven green growth, and also called for exploring โ€œpost-growth perspectives, including [growth-neutral] and degrowth strategies, to cultivate a more comprehensive discourse on sustainable development strategies.โ€

In any case, Lenzen added, โ€œWeโ€™re not giving technology the chance to catch up with consumption, and that has been the dynamics over the past decade,โ€ he said, describing a decades-long trend that is now leading researchers to look at alternative economics built on ecological sustainability and social justice.

The new paper doesnโ€™t specifically use the term โ€œdegrowth,โ€ but shares common themes, like focusing on human wellbeing and reduction of inequality. That โ€œopens the possibility of talking about alternative sustainability scenarios without being too provocative about it,โ€ said Lorenz KeyรŸer, a degrowth researcher at the University of Lausanne. That could make it more palatable to a wider audience, he added, including to the community of scientists who build the complex climate models that integrate human behavior with climate physics.

โ€œCompared to their pathway, I think degrowth thinking is more explicit in terms of the proposed changes,โ€ he said. โ€œAnd itโ€™s more openly โ€˜radicalโ€™ in the sense of being more pessimistic about green growth and decoupling, and in favor of a more transformative approach, which also includes ruptures and conflict.โ€

But research on degrowth, and similar related concepts like circular economies, or donut economics, is growing, and the European Parliament last year tasked its research service to study โ€œbeyond growthโ€ alternatives, including a hard look to determine whether the European Union Green Deal is really sustainable.  

Developing country leaders also recently spelled out steps that could have a huge cumulative impact and help protect vulnerable countries from climate impacts.

Speaking at COP28 in the context of global equity in climate financing, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley said a global financial services tax of 0.1 percent could raise $420 billion, and a 5 percent tax on oil and gas profits would raise another $200 billion, while a 1 percent tax on the value of shipping would raise $70 billion.

And there would have to be some new global compact that โ€œallows countries to recognize that they cannot only act in their own deliberate interest, but they have to also act in the interest of the preservation of global public goods,โ€ Mottley said. 

โ€œWe happen to be talking about climate,โ€ she added. โ€œBut we could easily be talking about pandemics and big pharma. We could easily be talking about the digital divide and big tech.โ€

โ€œRadical Incrementalismโ€

Oregon State University ecologistย William Ripple, co-author of the new paper, said the findings show that their restorative pathway should be included in climate models along with the five โ€œshared socioeconomic pathways,โ€ or SSPs, that are used by the U.N.โ€™s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Current emissions trends, societal denial and lack of political will make their scenario a tough sell, but he said its merits canโ€™t be honestly debated if itโ€™s not included as an option for policy makers. 

Their findings suggest a path of โ€œradical incrementalism,โ€ with small short-term steps to achieve big changes, like reducing the need to mine for metals or log forests to levels that donโ€™t threaten biodiversity and ecosystem integrity, with per capita GDP stabilizing over time.

Oil and gas infrastructure is seen on the Roan Plateau in far western Colorado. (Courtesy of EcoFlight)

โ€œEnding fossil fuel subsidies and public lands fossil fuel extraction projects would be great first steps for the U.S. and other developed countries, where applicable,โ€ he said. โ€œThese actions would be low-hanging fruit and a good start in the process of radical incrementalism.โ€

Directly phasing out fossil fuel use is also critical, Ripple added. โ€œAn important step in this direction would be the adoption of a global coal elimination treaty since the coal industry has extremely harmful impacts on the climate and human health.โ€

For the paper, the team compiled a 500-year dataset for several key global climate indicators to measure humanityโ€™s consumption of resources over the period. 

โ€œThe results show a great acceleration of resource use and impacts since about 1850,โ€ he said. โ€œThis illustrates that climate change is a symptom of the broader problem of ecological overshoot, the overexploitation of the Earth, which is driving several environmental crises.โ€ The restorative pathway was designed to tackle this underlying issue, he added.

*As our current predicament makes clear, business-as-usual isnโ€™t working and continued economic growth in wealthy countries isnโ€™t sustainable,โ€ Ripple said. โ€œThis motivated us to call for a shift toward post-growth economics where quality of life and societal wellbeing are the main priority.โ€ย 

The key to curbing ecological overshoot means greatly reducing overconsumption and waste, especially by the wealthy, and implementing ecological economics that would focus on social justice rather than continued growth, he said.

One of the global measures they used dating back to 1820 shows the top 10 percent of the worldโ€™s wealthiest have consistently received at least 50 percent of all income, illustrating global economic inequality over the long term. 

โ€œThe magnitude of this inequality,โ€ he said, โ€œprovides further evidence that we need a dramatic change. We face multiple serious and interrelated social and environmental crises. We need economic policies that guide humanity toward more equitable resource use patterns.โ€

Romancing the River: Sun and Water — George Sibley (Sibley’s Rivers)

Credit: Sibley’s Rivers

Click the link to read the article on the Sibley’s Rivers website (George Sibley):

I was planning for this post to be tip-toeing into a conversation about the prior appropriation doctrine, a conversation which we badly need to have throughout the interior West, but which will likely be vigorously, even violently, opposed by those holding senior water rights in every western watershed.

But instead of that โ€“ Iโ€™ve been captured by the season, the dark season of long nights and short days that has made us โ€“ all the way back to our distant ancestors living in stick-and-mud wickiups (maybe especially them) โ€“ want to take a break from the daily round, and instead contemplate the larger problem of helping the sun return. So โ€“ a short break here, from worrying about the water we donโ€™t have, or about 2026 and a new set of bandaids and splints for dragging into the future the Marleyโ€™s Chain that we call the Law of the River. No big bonfire either, or Saturnalia or Christmas or Kwanzaa just yet, although each in its good time. Instead, just a celebration, or at least acknowledgement, of our currently fading sun โ€“ and a revisit to the relationship between the sun and the water that the sun giveth and taketh away, the two things without which we would not be here.

A study by MIT researchers confirms that the planet harbors a โ€œstabilizing feedbackโ€ mechanism that acts over hundreds of thousands of years to pull the climate back from the brink, keeping global temperatures within a steady, habitable range. Credits: Image: Christine Daniloff, MIT; NASA

Think, for starters, of the planet misnamed โ€˜Earth,โ€™ held by the mysterious force of gravity in an uneven circle around the sun at about 66,000 miles per hour, too fast for gravityโ€™s centripetal force to pull it into the sun, but not so fast that centrifugal force would let it leave the sunโ€™sโ€™pull on a straight line into the black night of space โ€“ a delicate kind of dynamic balance.

But โ€“ โ€˜Earthโ€™: had we seen it first from above like we can now, from satellites on the upper edge of our atmosphere, we would have called the planet โ€˜Water,โ€™ or maybe more romantically, โ€˜Oceania.โ€™ Water covers 70 percent of the planet; we are a planet awash in water. Where the water came from, we can only hypothesize; but we have it โ€“ and we are also just the right distance from the sun we circle so that a lot of our water is in its liquid form. A few million miles closer to the sun and our water would be vapor in the atmosphere, as on Venus; a few million miles farther away, and the oceans and land would lie under deep layers of ice โ€“ the recent Pleistocene writ larger. But we are in the โ€˜sweet spotโ€™ between those extremes, where the tilt of the planet is such that in our yearโ€™s passage around the sun, most of us are getting a taste of both the water-as-ice world and the water-as-vapor world, winter and summer; but thanks be, water-as-liquid continues to be where, or what, most of the water is.

Diagram credit: USGS

The majority of that water, of course โ€“ 97 percent of it โ€“ is too salty for land-based life on the 30 percent of the planet currently not underwater. We know that the presence of any water at all on that 30 percent of the planet depends on the sun turning water-as-liquid to water-as-vapor โ€“ in effect, โ€˜desalinatingโ€™ it โ€“ then wafting some of that cleansed water-as-vapor over the land on winds also generated by the sun, where the water-as-vapor cools as it rises over the land and condenses as precipitation โ€“ water-as-ice or water-as-liquid, but either way, what we call โ€˜freshwater,โ€™ and need more than any other single resource (with the possible exception of the sun).

More than two-thirds of the freshwater that falls over the land gets โ€˜bankedโ€™ on the planetโ€™s remaining glaciers and ice sheets, mostly useless to life. A majority of the remaining third (of just 3 percent of the total water, remember) soaks in as groundwater, some of it โ€˜tributaryโ€™ (eventually working its way underground into streams), and the rest non-tributary (going into โ€˜deep-storageโ€™ in aquifers). The top layer of water that soaks into the ground is what most of our land-based plants depend on for life and living.

The diminished remainder โ€“ less than one percent of all the water on the planet โ€“ is surface water: the rivers, streams and lakes we see, use, play in and generally love to death. This is the water that most of the animal life on earth, including us mammals, depend on for life and living. We human mammals, however, have learned how to pump groundwater up to the surface for animal uses.

Sunset over the Yampa River Valley August 25, 2016.

But this is the point at which the sun ceases to be just a good friend. Its propensity for turning water-as-liquid into water-as-vapor does not stop at the edge of the ocean, and as soon as the sun and its agent winds deliver the precipitation to us โ€“ mostly water-as-ice in the Colorado Riverโ€™s mountains โ€“ it goes to work converting it back to water-as-vapor.

Western Water Assessment/Nature Conservancy/USDA Snowtography guide cover January 2022.

The sun and wind donโ€™t even wait till the water-as-ice turns to water-as-liquid; the wind goes to work as soon as the snow lands, the sun as soon as the clouds disperse; both sun and wind begin turning an unknown quantity of the water-as-ice directly into water-as-vapor, through the process of sublimation. Only snow that falls on the lee and shaded side of rocks, trees or ridges, or falls through a forest to the ground, is safe from the sun and wind. If it is intercepted on the branches of forest trees, it is sublimated from there too. Estimates of the amount of a snowpack lost to sublimation on exposed areas range as high as 30 percent. Researchers on a large Department of Energy project are making a very complex and instrument-intensive effort to determine more accurately how much is lost to sublimation, and studies are going on in the Western forests to see if there are management strategies that would better protect the snow from sublimation.

The snowpack that survives the winter melts in the spring and early summer, water-as-liquid that either soaks into the ground or runs off in streams, both processes in which its meets other sets of challenges from the sun. The sun that soaks into the ground is eagerly sought out by the roots of plants, and is carried up into their stems, leaves and flowers. There, around 5-10 percent goes into the growth of the plants, and most of the rest is transpired through leaves into the atmosphere as vapor, partly to create a favorable micro-environment around the plant, and โ€“ one irrationally suspects โ€“ patly because thatโ€™s what their lord and master sun wants them to do. (False fact alert.)

The water that runs off, either because the slope is too steep or rocky to soak in or because the ground is already saturated, encounters other challenges. Bouncing down the mountainsides in whitewater streams, dry air catches and vaporizes tiny droplets. Then once the water-as-liquid calms down in the valleys, it encounters lots of users, including us. Much of it is captured by plants, some โ€˜wild,โ€™ some domesticated, with a large portion of that being transpired back to the atmosphere. Anywhere it is exposed to the sun, some of it is evaporated. In the Colorado River Basin, the water-as-liquid eventually encounters a dam and reservoir, where it becomes a sitting duck for the sun. The hotter the reservoirโ€™s environment, the more is lost โ€“ although reservoirs in the upper reaches of the river are only partially exempted from evaporation; they lose water-as-liquid into thinner dry air. Again, we donโ€™t have an accurate measure of evaporation from the sun and its sidekick winds, but estimates Iโ€™ve seen are around 800,000 acre-feet in โ€˜system lossesโ€™ (mostly evaporation) from the states above the canyons, and 1.2 million acre-feet system losses from the states below the canyons. Nearly a sixth of the river as it has been running the past 20 years โ€“ and those numbers get a little worse in dry years of low precipitation.

Low soil moisture can soak up snow runoff, leaving less for rivers and reservoirs. Image credit: Denver Water.

So the sun giveth and the sun taketh away. A 2022 summary study of Colorado River science cites findings that only 10 percent of the precipitation that falls over the Colorado River Basin actually shows up in the river. A goodly portion of the rest undoubtedly goes to groundwater โ€“ but a recent US Geological Survey study (too complex in its science for me to really comprehend) shows that roughly half of the riverโ€™s water below the snowpack zone (roughly 8,000 feet elevation and above) is groundwater making its way into the stream. Since about 85 percent of the riverโ€™s water originates above the 8,000 foot elevation, the sun clearly does quite a lot of its taking-away before the streams ever emerge in what could be called the human-use region.

There is, however, another co-conspirator with the sun, in determining the ratio of water-as-liquid to water-as-vapor, and that is the planetโ€™s atmosphere โ€“ what isย inย the atmosphere. The atmosphere has a regulatory function for the ratios of water-as-ice to water-as-liquid, and water-as-liquid to water-as-vapor. Small changes in the amount of carbon and nitrogen gases in the atmosphere change those ratios significantly. At the height of the Pleistocene Epoch (most of the past two million years plus) the quantity of carbon gases in the atmosphere had dropped to less than 200 parts per million (ppm), decreasing the capacity of the atmosphere to hold solar heat, and the precipitation that fell as snow and piled up in glaciers in the mountains and ice sheets on the leveler land โ€“ ice masses with a weight sufficient to crack and depress the continental crust, leaving depressions that filled up with the Great Lakes when the ice melted.

Sometime in the last half-million years or so, however, something caused the carbon gases in the atmosphere to begin slowly increasing, and the balance of water on earth began to shift back from the cold dry epoch of water-as-ice toward water-as-liquid. Perhaps volcanic activity, perhaps fires in forests dried out for want of water, maybe some assistance from paleo-people burning forests and grasslands to keep forage optimal for the animals they hunted โ€“ some combination of factors and events bumped up the carbon gases in the atmosphere to 300 ppm plus or minus, and the planetary climate grew warmer and wetter, mellowing into the Holocene Epoch these past 10,000-15,000 years.

So comparatively mellow was the Holocene, with water-as-liquid replacing water-as-ice in comparative abundance, that all the forms of life that had survived the Pleistocene thrived โ€“ thrived so well that many species, plant and animal, experienced episodes of the โ€˜trauma of successโ€™: outgrowing their resource base in episodes of swarming, and ultimately being brought back into balance through rough action by the rest of their environments, by โ€˜natureโ€™ โ€“ a menu of measures that includes pandemic disease, famine, infighting, social breakdown, and all the other consequences of too many individuals competing for too little food, water, and โ€˜elbow room.โ€™

We are certainly in that category of swarming species, but are a unique case, being not locked into instinctual behavior, but either blessed or cursed with the capacity to see whatโ€™s going on and take steps to adapt culturally, thus avoiding (or at least deferring) the depredations of famine, pandemic disease and war over food, water and land. But our adaptations get ever more complex and difficult to maintain, and usually have unforeseen consequences that have to be dealt with through even more complexity.

Virga during a sunset. By ะ’ะธะบั‚ะพั€ ะะปะตะบัะตะตะฒ – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=112499661

Our current success in staying ahead of the disasters that usually brings swarming species back into balance quickly, if brutally, has depended heavily on releasing carbon substances long sequestered in the ground, burning them โ€“ and consequently driving up the capacity of the atmosphere to hold the sunโ€™s heat. The good news there is that weโ€™ve probably precluded the usual interstadial return to the Pleistocene winter. But the bad news is that we have begun to significantly increase the conversion of water-as-liquid to water-as-vapor. Weโ€™ve all seen the summerย virga,ย when falling precipitation over a desert is evaporated by rising heat before it can get to the ground โ€“ beautiful in the desert, but not something we want to see everywhere and all the timeโ€ฆ.

But time next year for all that. Wishing you all a meaningful and (if itโ€™s not contradictory) joyful holiday season. See you again in 2024 โ€“ when weโ€™ll again go down by the river and all its problems (for which a good primer would be to look at the Seven Principles of Kwanzaa).

#COP28: Key outcomes agreed at the UN #climate talks in Dubai — @CarbonBrief #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Credit: Carbon Brief

Click the link to read the article on the Carbon Brief website (Multiple Authors):

Nearly every country in the world has agreed to โ€œtransition away from fossil fuelsโ€ โ€“ the main driver of climate change โ€“ at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.

It is the first time such an agreement has been reached in 28 years of international climate negotiations.

The commitment is included in the first โ€œglobal stocktakeโ€ of how countries can accelerate action to meet the goals of the landmark Paris Agreement.

However, many countries walked away from the talks frustrated at the lack of a clear call for a fossil-fuel โ€œphase-outโ€ this decade โ€“ and at a โ€œlitany of loopholesโ€ in the text that might enable the production and consumption of coal, oil and gas to continue. 

Despite an early breakthrough on launching a fund to pay for โ€œloss and damageโ€ from climate change, developing countries were left disappointed by a lack of new financial commitments for transitioning away from fossil fuels and adapting to climate impacts.

COP28 president and oil executive Dr Sultan Al Jaber hailed the โ€œworld-firstโ€ achievement of getting โ€œfossil fuelsโ€ in a UN climate change agreement.

However, his presidency was overshadowed by allegations the UAE intended to use COP28 to make oil-and-gas deals.

Away from the negotiations, COP28 brought a wave of new international pledges โ€“ covering everything from oil-and-gas company emissions and tripling renewables, through to food systems and how the world can better integrate action on climate change and biodiversity loss.

Here, Carbon Brief provides in-depth analysis of all the key outcomes in Dubai โ€“ both inside and outside the COP.

Share your input: Planning greenhouse gas emissions reductions for midstream oil and gas facilities — #Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Denver, Colorado, USA – January 12, 2013: The Suncor Energy refinery in Denver, Colorado. Based in Calgary, Alberta, Suncor Energy is a Canadian oil and gas company with revenues of over 35 Billion Canadian Dollars. Photo credit: City of Boulder

From email from CDPHE:

Join the Air Pollution Control Division to discuss further reducing greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas operations. The division is leading a workgroup that is making a plan to address emissions from the industry’s midstream facilities.ย Midstream facilities include compressor stations and natural gas processing plants. Fuel combustion equipment at these facilities emit greenhouse gases and other air pollutants. This equipment includes engines, boilers, reboilers, heaters, and turbines.

Public feedback will help the workgroup draft an emissions reduction plan. The draft plan will be open for public comment in 2024. See below for more details and opportunities to comment on the draft plan, once available.

The division invites all Coloradans to participate. In particular, the division would like to hear from:

The public meeting agenda will include:

  • A plain language presentation.
  • An opportunity to provide public comments.
  • A question and answer session.

Registration is required. Language interpretation services are available upon request. 

Registration:

Questions? Contact cdphe_apcd_outreach@state.co.us. Please include โ€œMidstream Public Meetingโ€ in the subject line. More information is available on the divisionโ€™s website, including a fact sheet

Draft emission reduction plan for oil and gas midstream facilities

Join us in spring 2024 for public meetings on the draft emission reduction plan. The plan will focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions from midstream oil and gas facilities. 

The draft emissions reduction plan will be available on the divisionโ€™s website. The draft plan will also be open for a 30-day public comment period once available, starting likely in mid-April 2024. 

The meeting agenda will include:

  • An opportunity to provide verbal public comments.
  • Information on how to submit a written public comment.

Registration is required. Language interpretation services are available upon request. 

Registration:

Questions? Contact cdphe_apcd_outreach@state.co.us. Please include โ€œMidstream Public Meetingโ€ in the subject line.

Background on Coloradoโ€™s greenhouse gas reduction planning

This work is part of Coloradoโ€™s ongoing efforts to achieve greenhouse gas reduction targets. 

Coloradoโ€™s Greenhouse Gas Pollution Reduction Roadmap outlines targets by sector. 

The Colorado Environmental Justice Act set statewide greenhouse gas reduction targets for the industrial sector. This includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions 20% by 2030 below the 2015 baseline for fuel combustion equipment in the oil and gas midstream segment. 

For more information, please visit the divisionโ€™s greenhouse gas reduction planning program webpageRegister to receive email updates.  

Meeting accommodation notice 

Auxiliary aids and services for individuals with disabilities may be provided upon request. Please notify cdphe_apcd_outreach@state.co.us and the Nondiscrimination Coordinator at cdphe_nondiscrimination@state.co.us or 303-692-2102 at least one week prior to the meeting to make arrangements. 

Climate strike week 278. The final outcome of #COP28 is not a ‘historic win’ — @GretaThunberg

It is yet another example of extremely vague and watered down texts full of loopholes that in no way is even close to being sufficient for staying within the 1,5ยฐ limit and ensure climate justice.

#COP28 ends with deal on transition away from #fossilfuels — @CarbonBrief #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Hydrocarbon processing in the Wattenberg Field east of Fort Lupton, Colo., on July 2, 2020. Photo/Allen Best

Click the link to read the roundup on the Carbon Brief website:

For the first time ever, COP28 ended with a deal to transition the world away from fossil fuels, Bloomberg reports. It says the United Arab Emirates (UAE) president Sultan Al Jaber arrived at a deal โ€œstrong enough for the US and EU on the need to dramatically curb fossil fuel use while keeping Saudi Arabia and other oil producers on boardโ€. It notes that Al Jaber brought the gavel down on the so-called โ€œglobal stocktakeโ€ text on Wednesday morning โ€“ a day later than when COP28 was scheduled to conclude โ€“ and was greeted by applause and cheers by delegates. The draft text of the global stocktake deal, which was published early this morning, โ€œcalls on parties to contribute to the following global effortsโ€, including โ€œtransitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net-zero by 2050โ€, Le Monde reports. It notes that the text does not include a request to โ€œphase outโ€ fossil fuels as many countries and civil society groups hoped for. According to the Press Association, the agreement โ€œdefied the expectations of many observers who thought that the host country being a major oil exporter would be too much of a conflict of interestโ€. The Guardian notes that โ€œclimate-justice advocates said the text fell far short of what was needed for a fair transitionโ€. The New York Times lists some of the textโ€™s other commitments, including calling  on nations to triple the amount of renewable energy installed around the world by 2030 and to slash emissions of methane. The Guardianand BBC News have both been live-blogging the latest reaction to the final text before and after it was agreed. 

Coverage from yesterday โ€“ published prior to the emergence of the new text โ€“ details how, as BusinessGreen describes it, the presidency and negotiating delegations had reportedly been up until 4am โ€œattempting to broker a compromise on the global stocktake textโ€. The i newspaper says both the US and the UK had been branded โ€œhypocritesโ€ by climate campaigners for โ€œcriticising countries that do not agree to a โ€˜phase outโ€™ of fossil fuels while continuing to develop oil and gas fields domesticallyโ€. The Financial Times frames the disputes that had been taking place as โ€œthe majority of countries present clash[ing] with Saudi Arabiaโ€.

In wider COP28 news, theย Independentย has a piece about Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, and her effort to secure a more ambitious outcome for her country. Theย Guardianย has an explainer detailing the importance of โ€œmeans of implementationโ€ โ€“ climate finance and other support measures โ€“ for developing countries.ย New Scientistย has a piece about how COP28 has โ€œchanged the conversationโ€ around fossil fuels.

Directional drilling from one well site via the National Science Foundation

#COP28 Does Not Deliver Clear Path to Fossil Fuel Phase Out — Inside #Climate News #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

From the Alliance of Small Island States website: https://www.aosis.org/mvi-part-1-for-the-future-of-sids/

Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Bob Berwyn and Marianne Lavelleย ):

Small island states that arrived after the document was approved, donโ€™t accept the outcome as a consensus decision.

December 13, 2023

Going into overtime under the cover of a dark winter night in Dubai, climate negotiators at COP28 cooked up a weak sauce of climate half-measures that fail to adequately address the existential risk of global warming to millions of people around the globe, according to leading climate experts at the conference.

Theย UAE Consensus, COP28 president Sultan al-Jaber said, represents a clear step in a just transition away from fossil fuels, but the tarnished image of theย United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, and its process requiring consensus among nations, took another big hit because 39 small island states most affected by global warming were not in the room when al-Jaber signaled acceptance during theย closing plenary.

As a result, there will be an asterisk next to COP28 in the future. To activists and many country delegates, the way the outcome came about further undermined al-Jaberโ€™s leadership, which had been questioned since it was announced last year due to his apparent conflict of interest as head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, one of the biggest fossil fuel producers in the world.

The conference started Nov. 30 with a growing coalition of countries calling for a fossil fuel phase out, and earlier drafts of the decision documents all included some iteration of that language, raising hopes that the UNFCCC would face the heart of the problem head-on.ย 

But the finalized text calls only for accelerating efforts to โ€œphase downโ€ the use of unabated coal power, to โ€œ[transition] away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner,โ€ and to accelerate action toward that transition โ€œin this critical decade.โ€

Some of the speakers at the closing plenary, including Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry, said the mere mention of moving away from fossil fuels could be interpreted as a successful outcome for the climate summit. Al-Jaber tooted his own horn during the closing plenary by saying, โ€œWe have delivered a robust action plan to keep 1.5 in reach.โ€ 

That reference to the Paris accordโ€™s goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels elicited an immediate response from some climate scientists, including Rob Larter, a polar researcher with the British Antarctic Survey. 

โ€œWhen you see statements like this you know youโ€™re being lied to,โ€ Larter wrote in aย social media post. โ€œWhatโ€™s been agreed certainly does not keep 1.5C in reach.โ€

Larter was one of the first scientists to highlight the abrupt and alarming decline of Antarctic sea ice this year. The vast expanses of ice at the poles function as one of the planetโ€™s main cooling systems by reflecting a lot of incoming solar energy back into space. A permanent reduction of that surface would lead to additional heating of the atmosphere.

Other scientists at COP28 warned that the current level of warming, set to come close to 1.5 degrees Celsius this year, is already driving parts of the planetโ€™s climate system toward irreversible tipping points

The statement about a transition away from fossil-fuels remains too vague, โ€œwith no hard and accountable boundaries for 2030, 2040 and 2050,โ€ said Johan Rockstrรถm, co-director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

He faulted the statement for ignoring that carbon dioxide removal technologies will need to be scaled up massively to meet the 1.5 degree Celsius goal, and said there is still no convincing plan on how the transition away from fossil fuels will occur.ย 

โ€œWe know it will not happen through national voluntary means alone. Collective, global agreements, on finance, carbon pricing, and technology exchange, are also needed, at a scale that vastly exceeds what is now on the table,โ€ he said.

The new COP28 agreement also calls for โ€œaccelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030,โ€ and for speeding the reduction of emissions from road transport, as well as โ€œphasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible.โ€

Kerry said the document should be seen as a significant achievement, given the challenge of trying to win consensus among 200 parties. โ€œFor the first time in the history of our regime, the decision supported by all nations of the world calls for transitioning  away from fossil fuels in energy systems, so as to achieve net zero by 2050,โ€ Kerry said. 

โ€œThat is clear,โ€ he said, even if it is not as strong as many would have liked. 

Kerry said the applause that rang out in the plenary for the small island state representatives was โ€œa clarion call to all of us about our obligation and responsibility over these next months to make sure weโ€™re reaching as far as we can to implement as fast as we can.โ€

Consensus, or Not?

Theย Alliance of Small Island Statesย addressed its absence during the decision-making phase of the final plenary directly.

โ€œWe are a little confused about what just happened,โ€ the delegate from Samoa said on behalf of AOSIS. โ€œIt seems that you gavelled the decisions, and the small island developing states were not in the room. We were working hard to coordinate the 39 small island developing states that are disproportionately affected by climate change, and so were delayed in coming here.โ€

The agreement falls far short of what would be needed to prevent some island states from being swamped by rising seas by the end of the century, AOSIS wrote, referring to it as a โ€œdraft decision,โ€ which implies that the group doesnโ€™t consider the document finalized.

โ€œThe course correction that is needed has not yet been secured,โ€ the AOSIS statement continues. โ€œWe have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step-change in our actions and support โ€ฆ We do not see any commitment or even an invitation for Parties to peak emissions by 2025.โ€

Mauna Loa is WMO Global Atmosphere Watch benchmark station and monitors rising CO2 levels Week of 23 April 2023: 424.40 parts per million Weekly value one year ago: 420.19 ppm Weekly value 10 years ago: 399.32 ppm ๐Ÿ“ท http://CO2.Earthhttps://co2.earth/daily-co2. Credit: World Meteorological Organization

Although the decision frequently refers to science showing that fossil fuels must be phased out, the agreement doesnโ€™t include a path toward the needed actions, the island states said.

โ€œIt is not enough for us to reference the science and then make agreements that ignore what the science is telling us we need to do,โ€ the group wrote.

โ€œI think AOSIS wanted to highlight that this decision could not be seen as being adopted in their name,โ€ said Sรฉbastien Duyck, a senior attorney with the Center for International Environmental Law. โ€œThe outcome is not enough to protect their sovereign rights, human rights of future generations.โ€

That, he said, could be important in an international legal context, with the International Court of Justice preparing to look at the responsibility of states in the context of climate change.

โ€œA Leaky Canoeโ€

Statements from other countries during the closing plenary showed that the consensus touted by al-Jaber is fragile, and was reached mainly to avoid the appearance of a disappointing failure.

The German delegate said there were tears in the room, but that they were not all tears of joy, and spoke directly to island states: โ€œSamoa, Marshall Islands, we see you, we feel you, we know this might not be enough.โ€

Some oil producing countries from the Arab League said the new agreement veered too far off the Paris Agreement by ignoring the principle of national self-determination, by mentioning a timeline, however vague, for the energy transition, and by shifting the conversation away from emissions to the source of emissions.

COP28 followed a now-familiar pattern: Heads of state, heads of governments and ministers flying in on private jets at the beginning of the talksโ€”in the case of the United Kingdom,ย three high-level representatives all arriving on separate private jetsโ€”and making flashy announcements about scientifically unfounded non-binding deals.ย [ed. emphasis mine]

The ice sheets of Antarctica are one of the worldโ€™s most noted tipping elements. Melt water from the Nansen ice shelf fracture in Antarctica. Photo by Stuart Rankin (CC BY-NC 2.0)

Representatives for Indigenous communities and civil society environmental groups said the agreement doesnโ€™t go nearly far enough to ensure the fossil fuel phase out science demands, or toward ensuring climate justice for developing countries. 

Missing is language to ensure that rich nations go first and fast to end their fossil fuel addiction, and the groups pointed out that planned oil and gas developments in just a handful of rich, developed countries are enough to โ€œbust the goal of 1.5 degrees.โ€

Native land loss 1776 to 1930. Credit: Alvin Chang/Ranjani Chakraborty

The outcome perpetuates a 500-year legacy of colonialism and will lead to more inequality in the future by continuing to encourage the commodification of nature, the Indigenous representatives said. And even though the final documents recognize the role of Indigenous people as the guardians of Mother Earth, โ€œOur rights and knowledge continue to be sidelined in these discussions,โ€ an Indigenous representative said.

The head of the Marshall Islands delegation, John Silk, called the outcome dishonest.

โ€œI came from my home islands to work with you to solve the greatest challenge of our generations, to build a canoe together for my country โ€ฆโ€ he said. โ€œWe have built a canoe with a weak and leaky hull. Yet we have to put it into the water because we have no other option,โ€ he said.

โ€œI appreciate the effort that has gone into this outcome, but it has not been inclusive,โ€ he said. โ€œThe fact that the decision was gavelled without a major group in the room โ€ฆ is unacceptable โ€ฆ This is a small step in the right direction in this process, a good signal. But in the context of the real world, where temperatures are rising and people are dying, it is not enough. And so as we sail this leaky canoe together, letโ€™s agree to patch the holes so we can keep the canoe afloat for the sake of all of us, especially the most vulnerable.โ€

Oil and gas infrastructure is seen on the Roan Plateau in far western Colorado. (Courtesy of EcoFlight)

At #COP28, a Growing Sense of Alarm Over the Harms of Air Pollution — Inside #Climate News

Denver’s Brown Cloud via the Denver Regional Council of Governments.

Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Victoria St. Martin):

In one home video, Ella Adoo-Kissi-Debrah bops to a choreographed Beyoncรฉ dance. In another, she looks at the camera, and her mom and plants a big kiss on her lips. Then there is a photo of her mid-laugh when she told her mom she could not climb any more steps at a monument. And in some of the final images taken of Ella as she neared the end of her all-too-brief life, the 9-year-old lies in a London hospital room struggling to breathe, an oxygen mask covering nearly all of her tiny, oval face.

When she died in 2013, after years of seizures and a long struggle with asthma, Ellaโ€™s death marked a grim milestone in the planetโ€™s battle against climate change: She is believed to be the first person for whom โ€œair pollutionโ€ was listed as her official cause of death.

โ€œNot only do you have to grieve, but to carry this and to fight this is huge,โ€ Ellaโ€™s mother, Rosamond Adoo-Kissi-Debrah, said of her work as an advocate for clean air during the decade since her daughterโ€™s death. โ€œYou do have to thank God for His mercy. But I think itโ€™s the injustice of it all, seeing it all continue. I think thatโ€™s also quite heartbreaking.โ€

If, in the years since her death, Ella Adoo-Kissi-Debrah has emerged as a symbol of the fight against air pollution, then this yearโ€™s COP28 conference on climate change in Dubai stands as a reminder of how the crisis continues to worsen.

On the eve of the conference, a peer-reviewed study in the British Medical Journal found that there were more than 8 million deaths each year that are attributable to air pollution and fine particulate matter. Roughly 5 million of those deaths, the scientists said, could be directly traced to the air pollution caused by fossil fuels.

โ€œI think itโ€™s easy when we hear these statistics to let them wash over us,โ€ said Jane Burston, chief executive officer and founder of the Clean Air Fund, during the conferenceโ€™s first ever โ€œHealth Dayโ€ on Sunday. โ€œTheyโ€™re big, big numbers; we listen to them, and then we forget. But the people that donโ€™t forget are the families who are absolutely devastated by the quality of life of their loved oneโ€™s deteriorating, and ultimately their death.โ€

Burston noted that deaths from air pollution are risingโ€”a 2020 study cited 6.6 million related deaths in 2019โ€” and are expected to double by 2050.

Those deaths are also expected to disproportionately affect low-income communities and people of color, who, researchers say, because of limited economic opportunities, bias and other systemic factors are often compelled to live in areas where air quality is worse than their wealthier and white counterparts.

With that in mind, many attended the conference, which began Nov. 30 and ends on Dec. 13, with environmental justice and equity as issues at the top of mind.

Robert Bullard, a distinguished professor of sociology at Texas Southern University who is regarded as the father of the environmental justice movement, was in attendance at the conference and said in an interview that he was disappointed by the relative dearth of attention paid to addressing systemic inequities.

Bullard said that he was also discouraged by comments from Sultan al-Jaber, the president of the conference, who said last week that there was โ€œno scienceโ€ to support the contention that phasing out the use of fossil fuels could slow global warming.

Robert Bullard, a Texas Southern University professor, was disappointed by the handling of environmental justice issues at this yearโ€™s COP28. Credit: Courtesy of Robert Bullard

โ€œItโ€™s almost like ignoring the facts, ignoring the data and ignoring all of the studies that are showing the health benefits of getting off of fossil fuels,โ€ Bullard said. โ€œThis is not some low-level bureaucrat. This is the person over this whole thing. And if thatโ€™s the framing, then it means that going forward, thereโ€™s probably less of a chance of taking health as seriously. Itโ€™s as if you were going to keep doing the same thing.โ€ย 

Bullard noted that the handling of environmental justice issues contrasts sharply with what he experienced at last yearโ€™s gathering in Egypt, an event where organizers seemed determined to โ€œbring the worldโ€™s climate justice, environmental justice, organizations and institutions and friendly governments under one big umbrella and one big tent.โ€

This year?

โ€œThis COP seems to be taken over by the oil and gas, fossil fuel entities,โ€ he said. โ€œAnd itโ€™s to the point where itโ€™s really a bit disturbing given the urgency in which we need to move away from that type of energy.โ€

Given that this yearโ€™s meeting was held in the United Arab Emiratesโ€”which produces about 2.8 million barrels of oil a dayโ€”Bullard said that he expected a significant presence from industry officials.

โ€œBut to have it come forward in such an in-your-face way is a bit disturbing,โ€ he said.ย 

Many researchers were encouraged by a declaration on climate and health that was signed by over 100 countries recognizing โ€œthe urgency of taking action on climate changeโ€ and noting โ€œthe benefits for health from deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, including from just transitions, lower air pollution, active mobility, and shifts to sustainable healthy diets.โ€ 

In addition to concerns about air pollution, the conference also focused attention on other ways that climate change is affecting public healthโ€”from weather changes to the spread of illnesses and pathogens.

โ€œI think it just bears reminding that the evidence abounds showing that rising temperatures and sea levels, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, the heavy rains and typhoons, cyclones, heat waves, floods,โ€ said Avril Benoรฎt, executive director of Doctors Without Borders. โ€œIn addition to all these events, weโ€™re seeing altered patterns of infectious diseases, malaria, dengue, shifting to new zones.โ€ 

Benoรฎt said she hopes that this COP will highlight these issues and drive home the important link between the environment and our health. 

โ€œYou need concrete political action to implement all those solutions that we know are out there to limit climate change, to limit the devastating impacts of it on humanitarian crises,โ€ she said.

Cecilia Sorensen, a physician andย director of the Global Consortium on Climate and Health Education at Columbia University, said that researchers have found evidence of air pollution in placentas.ย 

โ€œIt gets into this very, very, fragile, delicate developing child system,โ€ Sorensen said. โ€œAnd this is why the World Health Organization predicts something like 90 percent of health impacts are going to be on this next generation because they start experiencing these exposures even before theyโ€™re born.โ€

Sorensen said those impacts are amplified throughout the life of the child.

โ€œThereโ€™s been really good data looking at when youโ€™re able to shut down fossil fuel producing facilities and in neighborhoods where thereโ€™s populations who are pregnant, that birth outcomes improve,โ€ she said. โ€œYou can think about the benefits of that to the health and longevity of those individuals, but also about the avoided health costs and the benefits to the economy and to society. Itโ€™s huge.โ€

Mitigating those crises in her own small way is now Rosamond Adoo-Kissi-Debrahโ€™s mission. She continues to work to keep other families from experiencing the pain that has endured for her family since Ellaโ€™s death.

Tri-State Generation &Transmissionโ€™s plans for its #coal plants — Allen Best (@BigPivots) #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Craig Station. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

December 1, 2023

Wholesale power provider for 42 electrical cooperatives hopes for federal help as it pivots from coal-heavy portfolio during the next few years.

In planning for the years 2026-2031, Tri-State Generation and Transmission wants to hasten its exits from two coal plants and add a ton of new wind and solar generation plus battery storage. This is to supplemented by new electrical production from natural gas.

The electric resource plan is to be filed with the Colorado Public Utilities by 5 p.m. [December 1, 2023]. However, these details were obtained by Big Pivots from a memorandum sent to members of the Colorado Solar and Storage Association. Important details were confirmed by other stakeholders.

Two accelerated coal plant retirements will be identified in the PUC filing. At Craig, in northwest Colorado, the utility proposes to advance the retirement of its last coal-burning unit to no later or earlier than Jan. 1, 2028, two years earlier than is currently the plan.

The proposal also calls for retirement of Springerville Unit 3, a 400-megawatt coal-burning unit in Arizona. Tri-State had not previously announced plans for retiring the plant, in which it holds a 51% interest, according to a September 2023 Securities and Administration filing. The proposal calls for a retirement no later than Sept. 15, 2031, but leaves the door open for a sooner date.

Tri-State does not see getting out of fossil fuels. It will retain an interest in a coal plant near Wheatland, Wyo., called Laramie River Station.

It also proposes to augment its existing natural-gas-burning fleet with a combined-cycle gas plant. That plant could also be coupled with carbon capture and sequestration technology. Tri-State has 8 member cooperatives in Wyoming in addition to 18 in Colorado, with others in New Mexico and Nebraska. Tri-State has significant transmission across the four-state region.

Not least, Tri-State proposes to add 1,240 megawatts of new renewable generation plus 210 megawatts of energy storage in four installations.

Many of these ambitions depend almost entirely upon federal funding to buy down debt on assets stranded as the United States tries to dampen its greenhouse gas emissions. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 allocated $9.7 billion for a national program called New ERA (Empowering Rural Communities).

In September, Jeff Wadsworth, chief executive of Poudre Valley Electric, one of the largest of Tri-Stateโ€™s 42 member cooperatives, told Big Pivots that the New ERA was the โ€œsingle biggest investment for electric cooperatives since the New Deal.โ€ The law creating the Rural Electrification Administration was passed by Congress in 1936, providing federal aid for extension of electrical lines to rural areas.

As the IRA was being crafted in 2022, Tri-State representatives lobbied Congress and the Biden administration hard to carve out funds for the energy transition in rural communities.

Tri-State has filed a letter of interest in applying for $970 million in federal funds. Whether it will get full funding is uncertain. In its SEC filing Tri-State reported overall long-term debt of $2.9 billion.

The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association, or NRECA, in September pointed out that the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the federal agency responsible for administering the program, had received 157 letters of interest from electric co-ops for 750 projects. The money is to be divided between small- and medium-sized cooperatives as well as Tri-State and other large cooperatives.

The federal agency has not set a timeline for a decision on federal funding, but stakeholders in the Tri-State process at the PUC expect a decision from commissioners by early summer. This presumed a decision by federal funding by mid-spring.

In a memo sent to some members of the Colorado Solar and Storage Association on Tuesday, the organizationโ€™s president, Mike Kruger, and general counsel, Ellen Howard Kutzer, said they believe it is best to support Tri-State in its quest for federal aid.

โ€œWe continue to believe it is better for the Colorado energy market to have a solvent and functioning Tri-State making an energy transition,โ€ they said.

COSSA and several other key groups involved in the proceeding at the PUC agree to a stipulation that expresses their broad support while reserving the right to push back on elements that arenโ€™t part of the plan that presumes federal money through the New ERA program. Other signatories include Western Resource Advocates, the Sierra Club, and the Colorado Energy Office as well as two of Tri-State member cooperatives. At least two other groups declined.

The Office of the Utility Consumer Advocate, the state agency with the mission of speaking on behalf of consumers, also supported the narrow agreement.

โ€œWe are supportive of the broad concept that Tri-State has laid out in their electric resource plan, although we think there is a lot of work to do,โ€ said Joseph Pereria, deputy director of the agency. โ€œThere are a lot of unknowns, but a good process has been started.โ€

Tri-Stateโ€™s insistence that it needs more natural gas backup for its major expansion into renewables is likely to be a major source of disagreement going forward. Xcel Energy and Platte River Power Authority are making the same argument as they prepare for a life of making electricity without coal.

Another major discussion will likely be about what constitutes just transition for Craig as it closes its coal-burning units. In adopting its goals for dramatic decarbonization in 2019, Colorado legislators also created an Office of Just Transition. The mission as summarized by the agency is to help โ€œworkers transition to new, high-quality jobs, to help communities continue to thrive by expanding and attracting diverse businesses, and to replace lost revenues.โ€

What this means in practice, though, is unclear. In the case of Pueblo, Xcel Energy has agreed to pay property taxes for 10 years after the last of the three coal-burning units at the Comanche Generating Station closes by 2031. As part of that process, Xcel will be conducting what is called a just transition electric resource plan. Xcel will see what kind of assets needed for its business can be located in Pueblo to replace the lost tax base and jobs.

Northwest Colorado communities need the same level of consideration and assistance, said Pereira.

Pueblo has started the conversation. โ€œCraig and Moffat County are in a different part of the state, with different needs and concerns,โ€ he said. โ€œSo itโ€™s important that we listen to those communities and that we think big about how we can help them plan for a future without coal.โ€

Wade Buchanan, director of the Office of Just Transition, said only that itโ€™s useful to have certainty when planning for retirements of coal plants and mines.

President Biden puts a plug in oil and gas flatulence: @EPA finally finalizes meaningful #methane rules — Jonathan P. Thompson (@Land_Desk) #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Interested in methane and other greenhouse gas emissions near you? Check out http://climatetrace.org, which allows you to see emissions from oil and gas fields, large individual facilities, and more. You can also break it down by industry.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

A bunch of world leaders, a handful of activists and oodles of fossil fuel lobbyists are convened in the United Arab Emirates for the annual United Nations climate conference, or COP28. Theyโ€™re doing a lot of talking about climate, but are they doing any doing to solve the climate crisis? Not a lot, but they did do some talking about doing. 

The Biden administration used the occasion to announce that it has finalized a rule aimed at slashing emissions of methane and other harmful pollutants from new and existing oil and gas wells, including low-producing or stripper wells. While itโ€™s not the fossil fuel phaseout advocates may be hoping for, it is meaningful action that will protect the climate and the people who live in and near the nationโ€™s oil and gas fields

Methane is theย main ingredient in natural gas and is a potent greenhouse gas, having about 86 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over the near-term (methane in the atmosphere breaks down into carbon dioxide and water over the long-term). Methane naturally occurs in coal seams and in oil and gas reservoirs. Oil wells also contain methane and other โ€œassociated gasesโ€ that can include health-harming volatile organic compounds and deadly hydrogen sulfide.

Sometimes the methane is captured, processed, and marketed as natural gas. But the entire system is prone to leakage, some of it intentional, most not. And when the driller is focused on oil, the methane and other gases are often vented directly into the air or flared, i.e. burned off. Either way, the oil and gas industry emits gobs of methane and other compounds, including nasty carcinogens like benzene. This is not only bad for the environment, but also wasteful: Natural gas lost to leaks or flaring is not taxed and generates no royalties, meaning the state and federal governments โ€” i.e. the taxpayers โ€” are losing out on millions of dollars each year

The Obama administration and then the Biden administration worked for years on regulations to tackle these emissions, but previousย proposals have often come up short. Obamaโ€™s EPA, for example, implemented rules that would only coverย newย oil and gas wells, leaving the tens of thousands of wells contributing to the Four Corners Methane Hot Spot, for example, untouched (the BLM had its own set of rules for existing facilities). Earlier iterations also werenโ€™t strong enough on flaring, didnโ€™t regulate pneumatic controllers (a major emissions source) and exempted the low-producing wells that are common in the Western U.S. and that tend to be leakier than the big producers.ย 

The new rules, while providing some flexibility for operators, fill in most of the gaps in earlier drafts. They will phase out flaring on new wells; require leak-detection surveys on a monthly, bimonthly, or quarterly basis (depending on type and size of facility); and require even low-producing wells to pipe associated gases to market or use them to replace other fuels onsite if at all possible. The rules also allow the EPA to โ€œleverage data collected by certified third parties to identify and address โ€˜super emittingโ€™ sources.โ€ 

Land and public health protectors generally have praised the new rule. โ€œThe U.S. EPA has taken bold action to cut methane pollution from oil and gas production,โ€ said Robyn Jackson, Executive Director of Dinรฉ C.A.R.E., in a written statement. โ€œInspections at smaller wells with leaky equipment are especially important at the older infrastructure we see in Navajo Country.โ€ Jackson emphasized that it is now up to the Navajo Nation EPA โ€” and other tribal nations and state governments โ€” to implement the rules for existing sources, adding: โ€œBoth federal and tribal government action is critical to protect our communities, our health, and our future.โ€

For more on this topic, check out our four-part series, Methane Madness, from 2021:

Methane Madness: Part I

Methane producers in Southwest Colorado (a coalbed methane well and cattle). Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Methane, itโ€™s all the rage these days. Or maybe it would be better to say that itโ€™s the outrage, since thatโ€™s what this greenhouse gas, consisting of one part carbon and four parts hydrogen, is causing. The alarm and outrage have surged in the wake oโ€ฆ

Read full story

 Data Dump #

Some folks will read the news about the methane rule and whatnot and get all upset about Biden waging a war on American energy production and compromising our energy independence and putting a bunch of roughnecks out of work. The data say: Not quite, buddy

In fact, U.S. crude oil production hit a new all-time daily record high in September of this year and is on pace to set a new annual record, as well. That is to say, the hundreds of thousands of wells that pockmark the nation will suck nearly a billion more barrels of oil from the earth this year than they did during the energy crises of the 1970s and 80s. Ack!

Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

Most of the gains are due to a drilling frenzy in the Permian Basin, which stretches across southeastern New Mexico and western Texas. Itโ€™s one of the most productive fields in the world; itโ€™s also one of the planetโ€™s largest methane emitters.

  • 1.36 million: Tons of methane emitted from the New Mexico side of the Permian Basin oil and gas fields in 2022. 
  • 3.38 million: Tons of methane emitted from the Texas side of the Permian Basin oil and gas fields in 2022.
  • 133: Tons of methane emitted by the HollyFrontier Navajo Refinery in southeastern New Mexico in 2022. 
  • 35,951: Tons of methane emitted from the Colorado side of the San Juan Basin coalbed methane fields in 2022. 
  • 19,010: Tons of methane emitted from the now defunct San Juan Coal Mine in northwestern New Mexico in 2022. 
Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

And when you hear about how the new methane rules are going to hit oil and gas operators in the pocketbook, just keep this one number in mind:

$26.33 billion:ย Third quarter 2023 combined profits for the Permian Basinโ€™s ten largest operators: Pioneer, EOG, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Occidental, Diamondback, Devon, Chevron, Mewbourne, and Endeavor. Yes, thatโ€™s for just one quarter!

This isnโ€™t happening because of Biden, necessarily, but itโ€™s also not happening in spite of his administrationโ€™s policies. Indeed, Biden is walking a fine line on oil and gas, approving big projects like Willow up in Alaska and approving thousands of drilling permits on public lands, while also implementing new regulations, establishing national monuments, and withdrawing millions of acres of federal lands from future oil and gas leasing.

Biden is approving public land drilling permits at about the same rate as Obama did during the height of the drilling boom. Note: The high numbers in fiscal year 2021 are mostly attributable to the Trump administration, which issued thousands of permits in the months before Biden was inaugurated. So even though more permits were issued in 2023 than in 2022, Bidenโ€™s approval pace is still slower than Trumpโ€™s was in his final two years in office. Source: BLM; graphic by Land Desk.

Parting Shot

Photo credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

Feds field questions about #Wyomingโ€™s first #nuclear power plant — @WyoFile #ActOnClimate

More than 100 people attended the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s public information sessions Nov. 7, 2023, in Kemmerer. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

KEMMERERโ€”TerraPower, backed by billionaire Bill Gates and the U.S. Department of Energy, plans to build the pilot โ€œNatriumโ€ liquid-sodium-cooled nuclear energy plant here, hoping its success will spur theย deployment of Natriumย and other small nuclear reactors throughout the nation and around the world.

A schematic of TerraPowerโ€™s proposed Natrium nuclear power plant. Credit: TerraPower

The next-generation technology presents myriad considerations for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, which has authority over the safety, security and environmental implications of such facilities. It would also be the first industrial nuclear facility in Wyoming, and locals have many questions:

Does the NRC take seismic activity into account? When might the spent radioactive fuel waste be shipped off to a permanent storage facility? Will there be regular NRC inspections, and how often?

Sen. Dan Dockstader (R-Afton), however, shares another concern that is top-of-mind for locals who are eager for the economic boost that developers promise: Can the NRC speed up the approval process โ€œif you get the right people in place?

โ€œIโ€™m running out of time planning and creating legislation to make sure this all comes together,โ€ he said.

Dockstader was among more than 100 local residents who attended the NRCโ€™s two information sessions here Tuesday. The agency sent a dozen staff members to this isolated southwestern Wyoming town of 2,400 to field questions about what many anticipate will be an expedited review process.

Review process

TerraPower and its contractors have already drilled more than 100 boreholes here to help โ€œinvestigateโ€ the suitability of the location,ย according to the company, and it plans to begin construction of the sodium testing facility and other non-nuclear portions of the 345-megawatt Natrium nuclear reactor energy plant in 2024.ย 

Sen. Dan Dockstader (R-Afton) poses a question to Nuclear Regulatory Commission officials during a public meeting Nov. 7, 2023, in Kemmerer. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

The nuclear plant will be โ€œco-locatedโ€ next to PacifiCorpโ€™s Naughton power plant just outside of Kemmerer. One coal-burning unit at the plant was converted to natural gas, and the two remaining units there will be converted to natural gas in 2026.

Before the company can begin assembling the nuclear components, however, it must complete a licensing application that can pass the NRCโ€™s review process, which includes several opportunities for the public to weigh in on the proposal. The NRC expects to receive TerraPowerโ€™s application, and initiate the official review process in March. 

โ€œNow is an opportune time to conduct this initial outreach and to explain the analysis process of reviewing applications for construction and operation,โ€ NRCโ€™s Chief of Advanced Reactor Licensing William Jessup said. 

Although the NRC is developing a new review process specific to โ€œadvancedโ€ reactors such as Natrium, which uses molten sodium as a coolant instead of water, TerraPower has tentatively agreed to seek approval via the long existing โ€œPart 50โ€ review, according to Jessup. It includes multiple review tracks, each with a safety and environmental component: one to consider a construction permit, and another to consider an operating license. The process requires the NRC to produce an environmental impact statement โ€” all of which include public input and multiple opportunities for the normal administrative and legal challenges that come with large federal permitting activities, Jessup explained.

Typically, the arduous NRC review can take up to seven years or more to complete โ€” with no guarantee of final approval. Last year, the NRC denied Oklo Power, LLCโ€™s application to build a โ€œfast reactorโ€ in Idaho for allegedly failing to provide sufficient information on the facilityโ€™s design.

TerraPower โ€” which is embarking on its first NRC licensing attempt โ€” hopes to win approval much sooner, however, thanks in part to the 2019 Nuclear Energy Innovation and Modernization Act. The law โ€” championed by Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyoming) โ€” set a maximum review timeline of 36 months. Additionally, TerraPower expects to help the NRC trim that timeline even further by filing information ahead of schedule.

It all depends on TerraPower submitting thorough information that doesnโ€™t require many requests to fill in unanswered questions, according to the NRC.

Patricia Vokoun, Mallecia Sutton and William Jessup of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission field questions during a public meeting Nov. 7, 2023, in Kemmerer. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

โ€œIf we have all of these discussions and address all of these topics before the application even comes in, then you would expect that it may make the review go faster,โ€ Jessup told WyoFile.

Questions

Many locals are eager for the potential economic boon the $4 billion project might bring to this region, which has long relied on the diminishing coal industry to power its economy. But many of the same people, and others, are concerned about the high-stake risks that come with a nuclear facility.

Does the NRC take seismic activity into account?

Yes, NRC officials said, adding that they are aware that there is seismic activity in the Rocky Mountain Region.

Several residents, including Rep. Scott Heiner (R-Green River), asked when the radioactive spent fuel might be transported to a permanent storage facility.

โ€œIs there a permanent solution for waste that is being worked on at this time?โ€ Heiner asked.

No, there is no permanent nuclear fuel waste repository in the U.S. at the moment, NRC officials said. Though NRC staff in attendance indicated they โ€œanticipateโ€ one will be built, others have long indicated that thereโ€™s no clear path to building a permanent repository, which has been discussed for decades.

For now, that means spent nuclear fuel will be โ€œtemporarilyโ€ stored on site โ€” for how long, nobody knows.

The NRC also fielded questions about how nuclear fuel will be transported to the facility and how safety of those radioactive materials will be ensured. The NRC, along with several other federal agencies, closely manage the transport of such materials in cooperation with state agencies, according to staff members. A specific plan, however, will be worked out in the NRCโ€™s review, they said.

NRC representatives also assured locals that they will maintain partnerships with local emergency managers and state environmental authorities. 

Many questions about TerraPowerโ€™s Natrium design, however โ€” such as water consumption and where the company will find enough construction and permanent workers โ€” are up to the company to answer. However, most of those details โ€” with the exception of information that the NRC agrees to deem proprietary โ€” will be included in the application and public review, according to NRC staff.

โ€œThatโ€™s the reason weโ€™re here tonight,โ€ Jessup said. โ€œWeโ€™re here to get the message out early about our process and how to interact.โ€

Hereโ€™s a link to the NRCโ€™s TerraPower/Natrium project webpage where the agency will maintain information about the project.

How about 98.5% emissions-free electricity by 2040? — Allen Best (@BigPivots)

Downtown Denver from the Denver Art Museum. Photo/Allen Best

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

Study finds that existing technology can get Colorado to near-zero electricity without need for breakthroughs in geothermal, nuclear or other realms. It will require a bit of natural gas.

Colorado can decarbonize its electricity very deeply by 2040 without busting the bank. But thereโ€™s a catch.

To hit this 98.5% decarbonization level will require accepting natural gas as 1% of the mix along with a small percentage of carbon-based electricity imported into Colorado. And getting there will not require still-costly emerging technologies.

Thatโ€™s the take-away from a modeling study commissioned by the Colorado Energy Office.

How about 100% emissions-free electricity? That can be achieved, and in several different ways โ€” all of them at a higher price, according to the modeling conducted by Ascend Analytics, a Boulder-based company.

The company modeled two other scenarios deploying deep levels of geothermal, hydrogen, and advanced nuclear reactors as well as other emerging technologies. Still another scenario examined the cost of using simply wind, solar, and existing battery technology. And one scenario emphasized local generation.

These five other scenarios came in at prices of $47.1 billion to $56.2 billion in net-present value โ€” all substantially higher than the $37.5 billion of the less-than-perfect scenario using some natural gas.

Burning natural gas on an as-needed basis to ensure reliability will produce 565,000 metric tons of emissions in 2040. That compares with 40 million tons in 2005, according to the modeling study. This scenario also envisions a higher share of electricity , about 17%, being imported into Colorado.

All the scenarios in the modeling assume substantial amounts of improved energy efficiency, in effect partially eliminating the need for new generation. All models also assume that Colorado utilities will, as required by a state law, be participating in some sort of regional market for electricity by 2030.

Will Toor, director of the Colorado Energy Office, called the study results โ€œhuge.โ€

โ€œThe biggest takeaway of the study is understanding that we can get very deep emissions reductions, nearly zero emissions by 2040 while minimizing costs to utility customers. That is not something that we understood going into this study,โ€ he said in an interview.

โ€œAs we look at developing the policy framework for 2040, it will be very much informed by that understanding,โ€ he added.

The modeling study will likely deliver the justification for a bill in the legislative session beginning in January that would propose a new emissions-reduction target for Coloradoโ€™s electrical utilities. Laws adopted in 2019 and in subsequent years tasked those utilities with reducing emissions 80% by 2030. Most and perhaps all seem to be on track to get there with relative ease.

Some moving higher more quickly

Some utilities expect to get far higherโ€”and soon. Notable is Holy Cross Energy, the electrical cooperative based in Glenwood Springs. It expects to achieve 92% emissions-free electricity by early in 2024 and has a goal of 100% by 2030.

Bryan Hannegan, chief executive of Holy Cross, has long said that the path to 90% was reasonably clear. The hard part, with answers still unknown, he has said, will be that final 10%. And unlike the path to 90%, that final leg will likely be more expensive.

The modeling has any number of assumptions. Some likely are further out on the limb than others.

All the scenarios assume a 40% increase in electrical demand across Colorado during the next 17 years. Population growth will drive some of this new demand. Increased demand will also result from electricity replacing fossil fuels in both transportation and building and water heating.

To satisfy this increased demand will require new generation. Just how much new generation will depend upon the type. Wind and solar exclusively from generators within Colorado coupled with battery storage would require 74,492 megawatts of installed capacity. Having natural gas available will require far less, 44,474 megawatts.

On a more micro level and with a concrete challenge, Platte River Power Authority โ€” the supplier to Fort Collins, Loveland, Estes Park and Longmont โ€” is putting together its resource plan looking out to 2030. Directors in 2018 identified a goal of 100% renewables by 2030 but also attached a handful of conditions to that goal. Five years later, Platte Riverโ€™s planners donโ€™t see a way to 100% by 2030, at least not without risking reliability or absorbing considerable costs. One scenario calls for 85% renewables. The plan, however, is not scheduled to be completed until June.

For an explanation of the reasoning for a unanimous resolution by Platte Riverโ€™s board of directors,ย see a blog by Fort Collins Mayor Jeni Arndt, her cityโ€™s board representative.

The Crossing Trails Wind Farm between Kit Carson and Seibert, about 150 miles east of Denver, has an installed capacity of 104 megawatts, which goes to Tri-State Generation and Transmission. Photo/Allen Best

Transmission, seen by many as critical to deep levels of emissions reductions, gets relatively little mention in the modeling report. Arguably, an entire scenario could be built around potential for transmission upgrades, such as greater ease of moving electricity between the Western Interconnection grid, of which Colorado is a part, and the Eastern Interconnection, which starts at Kansas and Nebraska.

Ascend Analytics had conducted similar modeling about deep, deep decarbonization of electricity for Los Angeles Water and Power. The question in that study was what would it take for Los Angeles to achieve zero-emissions electricity?

Twenty years ago Colorado and its electrical utilities almost entirely embraced coal generation as the cheapest energy source far into the future. By 15 years ago, that resolve had weakened. Voters had adopted the stateโ€™s first renewable energy mandate and legislators had upped it. Wind prices were swooping down. Not least utilities had become confident of keeping lights on while deploying wind and solar.

A watershed year was 2017. Xcel Energy, Coloradoโ€™s largest utility, which supplies roughly half of the electricity in the state, sought bids for new electrical generation. The low prices for wind and solar dramatically undercut those of fossil fuels. Proponents of renewables were elated. A year later, Xcel Energy announced its plans for 80% decarbonization by 2030. The paradigm had shifted.

Most of those wind, solar, and storage projects bid in 2017 have now or soon will go on line. Statistics for 2023 are not yet available. However, as of 2022, renewable energy accounted for 37% of the stateโ€™s electrical generation, with wind power accounting for four-fifths of that renewable generation, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Two coal plants have closed since 2017 and now eight more will be laid down before the end of 2031. One, Pawnee, located at Brush, is to be converted to natural gas.

Toor said his agency began having discussions in 2022 about the next steps beyond 2030. The questions guided creation of the modeling study. The state called in utilities, environmental groups, industrial sectors, and others for conversations about how to frame the study.

What some said

Ean Tafoya, the Colorado director for GreenLatinos, a national advocacy group, said he remembers the first meeting occurring in May. Based on the number of those interested in environmental justice invited to participate as stakeholders, he suspects dozens of stakeholders were involved.

The results of the modeling Tafoya described as โ€œvery promising.โ€

โ€œIt shows me that the emerging technologies that my community has been very concerned about, that we donโ€™t need them,โ€ he said, referring to hydrogen, carbon capture and sequestration and direct-air capture as well as deep-well geothermal.  โ€œAnd if we can do this by 2040 without change of policy, that is very exciting.โ€

If Colorado can find ways to leverage capital through green infrastructure banking and address workforce training, Colorado โ€œcan truly be a leader nationally and globally,โ€ he added.

Xcel Energy issued a statement that said the company was โ€œencouraged by the Colorado Energy Officeโ€™s findings.โ€

โ€œWe agree there is a need for new 24/7 carbon-free technology to achieve deep carbon reductions. The stateโ€™s policies will enable us to reduce carbon emissions greater than 80% by 2030 and will inform our future investments into the local infrastructure necessary to move clean energy reliably into our customersโ€™ homes โ€“ while keeping bills low.โ€

Do Coloradoโ€™s modeling results suggest a template for other states or regions of the United States, even other countries? Toor thinks so.

โ€œIt is saying that you can get to near-zero greenhouse gas emissions and pollution from electricity generation within the next 20 years โ€”with no incremental cost to customers. Thatโ€™s true with other states, and it doesnโ€™t matter whether youโ€™re a red state or blue state. โ€œRegulators and utilities should be excited about the ability to minimize costs to customers while nearly entirely eliminating emissions. I think that is a really important conclusion.โ€

That said, added Toor, other states are starting at different places. โ€œWe have already had substantial progress.โ€

Colorado also is blessed with renewable resources. It has wind โ€“ not the best, but among the best. It also has strong solar. Again, not the best, but very good.

โ€œI want to be careful about claiming insight into other states, but I do think it is a very striking result that you can achieve such deep pollution reductions simply by developing the lowest-cost resources,โ€ said Toor.

In creating the documents, Ascent based its projected costs of various technologies on projections by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory but also Ascendโ€™s Market Intelligence Team.

How fast will technology move?

Even with those presumably careful calculations based on strong information, how good are they? After all, 20 years ago, the cost numbers argued for coal. Incredibly, some people still try to make that argument.

Also 20 years ago, many smart people projected the imminent arrival of both peak oil and, by extension, peak natural gas. Those projections, based on rear-view mirror data, failed to anticipate the rapid incremental advances in hydrofracturing, horizontal drilling and other extraction technology. From $14.50 per million Btu in 2008, natural gas prices plummeted to $2.50 with the recession โ€“ but never returned to the stratospheric levels that justified poking very deep holes across the Piceance Basin southwest of Craig. Meantime, the U.S. became a net exporter of oil.

Of course, we have had similar cost curves with wind, then solar, and now storage prices.

Might the same thing occur with geothermal, using underground heat to produce electricity, as is already done in California and some other places? Sarah Jewett, vice president for strategy at Fervo Energy, suggested cause for similar optimism in her industry during her remarks at the Colorado Rural Electric Association conference on Monday. The cost curve in recent projects in Utah and Nevada has been bending downward, she said.

Earlier that same day, a panel of experts about nuclear energy reported cause for optimism about nuclear, while yet another panel predicted reason to believe hydrogen will play an important role in the future.

Toor acknowledged the unexpected cost declines for many technologies. โ€œItโ€™s quite possible that hydrogen and other technologies will be lower cost than now projected,โ€ he said.

Regardless, he added, these near-zero or zero-emissions pathways should become the baseline.

โ€œI think it would be important that utilities are looking at new technologies and that utility regulators are able to look at getting to even deeper reductions based on what the actual cost trajectories turn out to be,โ€ he said.

Coloradoโ€™s energy regulation framework is well suited to achieving those deep reductions โ€”even deeper than the low-cost 98.5% emissions-free that this modeling suggests will be possible.

A final report, after review by stakeholders, is expected in December.

Following are what the modeling study cites as its key findings. The language is verbatim from the report:

  • The Economic Deployment scenario, which relies on current state and federal policies and is projected to meet demand at the lowest cost, is projected to reliably meet electricity needs in 2040 while achieving 98.5% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2040 from a 2005 level while also achieving near zero emissions reduction in nitrous oxide and sulfur oxide.
  • Wind and solar will be the main source of electricity in Colorado in 2040. In the Economic Deployment scenario, 76% of electricity comes from in-state wind and solar; 16% comes from out-of-state imports of near zero-emissions electricity (mostly wind from a wholesale electricity market); and 10% from energy efficiency, with the rest coming from other sources. Across all other scenarios, in-state wind and solar account for more than 90% of electricity.
  • In the Economic Deployment scenario, gas-fired electricity generation meets only about 1% of total need for electricity.
  • Under current cost assumptions, the Optimized 100 scenario, which achieves zero emissions by 2040 using a technology-neutral, least-cost approach, selects a substantial amount of hydrogen and a modest amount of geothermal to complement wind, solar, and batteries. It is 25% more expensive than the economic deployment scenario.
  • The Wind, Solar and Battery scenario is 20% more expensive than the Optimized 100 scenario and 50% more expensive than the least cost Economic Deployment scenario. The Accelerate Geothermal scenario is 11% more expensive than the Optimized 100.
  • The Optimized 100 scenario retires all gas-fired generation by 2040. It replaces retiring gas capacity primarily with clean hydrogen starting in 2032. By 2040, this scenario has 5,061 MW of clean hydrogen and 125 MW of geothermal generation.
  • The model does not select gas with carbon capture or advanced modular reactors in any scenario because of the cost.
  • The Accelerated Geothermal scenario adds a requirement to have 10% of demand met with geothermal in 2040, which results in 1,989 MW of installed capacity (compared to 125 MW in the Optimized 100 scenario).
Mauna Loa is WMO Global Atmosphere Watch benchmark station and monitors rising CO2 levels Week of 23 April 2023: 424.40 parts per million Weekly value one year ago: 420.19 ppm Weekly value 10 years ago: 399.32 ppm ๐Ÿ“ท http://CO2.Earthhttps://co2.earth/daily-co2. Credit: World Meteorological Organization

#ClimateChange is turning swaths of #Californiaโ€™s mountains into โ€˜zombie forestsโ€™ — The Los Angeles Times #ActOnClimate

Pinus ponderosa subsp. ponderosa. Photo credit Wikimedia.

Click the link to read the article on The Los Angeles Times website (Alex Wigglesworth and Ian James). Here’s an excerpt:

The expanse of Sierra National Forest near Shaver Lake is a relic of the climate before global warming. Scientists believe that the conifers wonโ€™t be able to survive the current conditions. Researchers at Stanford University found inย a recent studyย that roughly one-fifth of all conifer forests in the Sierra are mismatched with the warmer climate and have become โ€œzombie forests.โ€

[…]

The findings indicate that these lower-elevation Sierra conifer forests, which include ponderosa pine, sugar pine and Douglas fir, are no longer able to successfully reproduce. Conditions have become too warm and dry to support conifer saplings, whose shallow roots require plenty of water if they are to survive into adulthood, Hill said. Giant sequoias also grow in lower-elevation areas of the Sierra Nevada, but the researchers didnโ€™t analyze the risks specific to those trees.

When these forests burn in high-severity wildfires โ€” or are wiped out by drought, disease or pests โ€” they will likely be replaced by other types of trees and brush, the scientists said. That could dramatically slash how much carbon the region can store; provide a habitat for invasive species; and displace plants and animals that call the forests home.