At last, juice from Taylor Park Dam: It took awhile to make this happen but it immediately is cheaper energy for Gunnison County Electric Assocation — Allen Best (@BigPivots)

Taylor Park Dam. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

September 25, 2024

When work was completed on Coloradoโ€™s Taylor Park Dam in 1937, at least some thought existed that it would eventually be modified to produce electricity.

In 2024, it is finally happening. The first commercial power production has or will very soon happen in the first days of autumn.

The new 500-kilowatt hydroelectric turbine and generator installed in the dam will operate at or near full capacity 24/7/365. It is projected to produce an average 3.8 million kilowatt-hours annually. That compares to a  2.5-megawatt fixed-til solar array.

The electricity will get used by Gunnison County Electric Association. Mike McBride, the manager, says the electricity delivered will immediately save the cooperative money compared to the power delivered by Tri-State Generation and Transmission.

Under its contract with Tri-State, Gunnison County Electric can generate up to 5% of its own power. This hydroelectric facility will get it to 3%. The association is working to gain the other 2% from local solar array developments, one near Crested Butte and the other near Gunnison.

Map of the Gunnison River drainage basin in Colorado, USA. Made using public domain USGS data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=69257550

The Taylor River originates on the west side of Cottonwood Pass in the Sawatch Range. The road across the pass connects Buena Vista and Crested Butte and Gunnison. After being impounded by the dam that creates Taylor Park Reservoir, the river descends to meet the East River, which originates near Crested Butte. Together they become the Gunnison River.

Grand opening of the Gunnison Tunnel in Colorado 1909. Photo credit USBR.

The 206-foot-high earthen dam is owned by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation but operated by the Uncompahgre Valley Water Users Association, which delivers water to the Montrose and Delta area via [the Gunnison Tunnel].

In 2020, that water association joined with the Gunnison County Electric Association to form a legal entity to finance the $3.6 million project.

George Sibley, a historian of all things water in the Gunnison Basin (and beyond), said the dam was originally intended for storing water for July through September.

In the 1970s that changed in a collaboration of the Bureau, the Uncompahgre water district, and Upper Gunnison Regional Water Conservation District. That collaboration allowed them to store water from Taylor in Blue Mesa Reservoir. This allowed water to be released continuously through the year.

โ€œThat year-round flow potential made it more possible to think of the Taylor Dam as a possible year-round power source,โ€ he says.

But the coal-burning units at Craig were delivering plenty of cheap power. Only in the last couple of decades have the electrical cooperative started getting pressure from some members and โ€œother cultural entitiesโ€ to reduce emissions associated with their electricity, he says.

A study was commissioned in 2009 and wrapped up in March 2010. Beyond were more complications โ€” but now success.

Trump and Harris have clashing records on clean energy, but the clean power shift is too broad for any president toย control

Intersect Powerโ€™s Oberon Solar + Storage Facility in Riverside, Calif. Michael Slider, U.S. Department of Energy/Flickr, CC BY-ND

Daniel Cohan, Rice University

Although Vice President Kamala Harris touts clean energy and Donald Trump makes misleading assertions and false claims about it, neither candidate has set forth a comprehensive energy plan. Even if they do, a gridlocked Congress would be unlikely to pass it.

Instead, the next presidentโ€™s greatest influence on clean energy will come through their handling of legislation and regulations put in place since 2021 under the Biden-Harris administration. As an environmental engineer who studies energy and climate change, I expect that Harris, who has strongly supported these policies, would follow through on them, while Trumpโ€™s record as president suggests that he would try to roll them back. Trade policies toward China, the leading producer of clean energy technologies, will also be key. https://www.youtube.com/embed/hoycdE1G0C0?wmode=transparent&start=0 Donald Trump and Kamala Harris discuss clean energy policy during their presidential campaign debate on Sept. 10, 2024.

Legislation and regulations

Three bills passed by Congress under Biden and Harris โ€“ the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act โ€“ have transformed U.S. energy policy. The three bills allocated hundreds of billions of dollars for building infrastructure, providing incentives for clean energy manufacturing and purchases, and funding clean energy research.

None of these measures is likely to be completely overturned, since each funds numerous projects in red states. But implementation by the next administration will determine how effectively they stimulate clean energy growth.

For example, the Treasury and Energy departments will decide which projects can receive incentives and loans. Other agencies, such as the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy, known as ARPA-E, will allocate clean energy research funding.

The Environmental Protection Agency will also play a crucial role. Under the Biden-Harris administration, the EPA issued its most stringent regulations ever for controlling emissions from fossil fuel power plants and motor vehicles. Those rules could accelerate the transition to clean electricity and electric cars.

However, a Trump-led EPA could reverse course, much as it overturned Obama-era regulations designed to reduce carbon emissions from power plants in 2019 and weakened vehicle emissions rules in 2020. Trump also appointed three Supreme Court justices who voted to constrain EPAโ€™s power to reduce emissions.

The role of market forces

Whatever policies the next president sets, domestic energy trends will depend largely on market forces. Both Trump and Biden oversaw a boom in domestic oil and gas production. At the same time, as the costs of wind turbines, solar panels and utility-scale batteries have plummeted, these technologies have dominated new electricity generating capacity.

Currently, the U.S. has a backlog of nearly 2,600 gigawatts of projects waiting to be added to the nationโ€™s electricity grids. Thatโ€™s roughly eight times the amount of wind and solar generating capacity on U.S. grids today.

However, Congress is deadlocked over competing proposals for streamlining permitting rules. State and local governments and regional grid operators also play key roles and are not easily swayed by federal action.

Still, the next president can influence policy through his or her selection of commissioners to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which regulates interstate transmission of oil, gas and electricity. Presidents also can push Congress to pass permitting reforms.

Trade policy

As fast as U.S. clean energy manufacturing and deployments have grown under the Biden-Harris administration, that increase is dwarfed by Chinaโ€™s output. Chinese companies manufacture over three-quarters of the worldโ€™s solar cells and modules, more the half of the worldโ€™s wind turbines and three-quarters of the advanced batteries needed for electricity storage and electric cars. China also sells more electric cars than the rest of the world combined. https://www.youtube.com/embed/rkxMdmipYqM?wmode=transparent&start=0 Chinaโ€™s dominance in clean energy manufacturing poses challenges for nations wary of relying on Chinese components.

Like it or not, Americaโ€™s ability to rapidly deploy clean energy and electric cars will require importing at least some materials from China. After falling behind for decades, thereโ€™s simply no way to scale up U.S. manufacturing fast enough to meet national climate goals. Even if solar panels, batteries or electric cars are assembled here, theyโ€™ll depend upon critical minerals that are mostly refined in China.

As president, Trump waged a trade war with China. He has vowed to extend existing tariffs to other products from China if he is elected to a second term.

Biden and Harris have also tried to tilt the playing field to favor U.S. companies. The administration is offering loans and incentives for domestic manufacturing, and has also imposed a 100% tariff on electric vehicles and a 50% tariff on solar cells from China.

Such policies may shelter domestic manufacturers for a while, but are unlikely to make them competitive on global markets that are pivoting to electric cars and solar energy.

U.S. standing under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, a legally binding treaty that sets targets for curbing climate change, will also be key. Countries around the world have pledged to shift to clean energy to reduce emissions. The European Union is enacting carbon border tariffs that will penalize imports from high-emitting producers.

If Trump were to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement again, as he did in 2017, and roll back emissions rules, U.S. manufacturers could face new hurdles in exporting their products overseas. For her part, Harris has supported the Paris accord and criticized Trumpโ€™s decision to withdraw the U.S. from it.

No reversing the revolution

Markets worldwide are rapidly transitioning to renewable energy and electric cars, which are becoming cheaper, cleaner and more appealing than their fossil-fueled alternatives. Popular subsidies for clean energy would be difficult to claw back. Chinaโ€™s dominance in clean energy technologies will not soon be shaken, whatever trade policies the next administration adopts.

Based on their records, Harris could be expected to build on the legislation and regulations passed under the current administration, while Trump would be likely to roll back some but not all of its advances. Neither candidate is proposing policies as transformative as the ones enacted in the past several years. Whoever is elected will govern within a clean energy landscape that has been reshaped by those policies, and by market forces that are beyond the control of any president.

Daniel Cohan, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rice University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The #Colorado River District 2024 Annual Water Seminar: โ€˜Meet the Momentโ€™ — KKCO11News.com #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification

View of Shoshone Hydroelectric Plant construction in Glenwood Canyon (Garfield County) Colorado; shows the Colorado River, the dam, sheds, a footbridge, and the workmen’s camp. Creator: McClure, Louis Charles, 1867-1957. Credit: Denver Public Library Digital Collections

Click the link to read the article on the KKCO11News.com website (Ja’Ronn Alex). Here’s an excerpt:

September 20. 2024

The 2024 Annual Water Seminar was hosted by the Colorado River District at Colorado Mesa University. The event featured many big names in the community including John Marshall, Andy Mueller, David Payne, Merrit Linke, Bart Miller, Cleave Simpson, and many more…Their goal was to highlight the challenges the Western Slope faces now and will face in the future. These challenges pertain to the ever-present climate change crisis and bureaucracy…

According to Andy Mueller, the general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, one of those bureaucratic obstacles is an agreement that was signed in the 1920s. This limits our entitlement to around 55% of the flow of the Colorado River. Another issue he tells us is communities in the Lower Basinโ€”areas in California and Arizonaโ€”are keen on securing water. And with a growing population on the Front Range, Mueller says there is a heightened emphasis on securing the Shoshone Water Rights. โ€œWe are concerned that if we do not lock in the Shoshone Water Rights, we will see more water leave the Colorado River Basin, and there will be less water for the population and environment on the Western Slope.โ€

The Shoshone Water Plant is expected to have a $99 million price tag and is slated to increase the amount of available water to farmers and consumers. So far, we are told $56 million has been raised.

“New plot using the nClimGrid data, which is a better source than PRISM for long-term trends. Of course, the combined reservoir contents increase from last year, but the increase is less than 2011 and looks puny compared to the โ€˜holeโ€™ in the reservoirs. The blue Loess lines subtly change. Last year those lines ended pointing downwards. This year they end flat-ish. 2023 temps were still above the 20th century average, although close. Another interesting aspect is that the 20C Mean and 21C Mean lines on the individual plots really donโ€™t change much. Finally, the 2023 Natural Flows are almost exactly equal to 2019. (17.678 maf vs 17.672 maf). For all the hoopla about how this was record-setting year, the fact is that this year was significantly less than 2011 (20.159 maf) and no different than 2019” — Brad Udall

Click the link to read “Climatologist: Warming of state almost certain to continue” on the Grand Junction Daily Sentinel website. Here’s an excerpt:

September 21, 2024

On the heels of Grand Junctionโ€™s hottest summer on record, Coloradoโ€™s state climatologist advised Friday that the stateโ€™s warming trend over recent decades is all but certain to continue in coming ones. Russ Schumacher, also director of the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University, said at an event at Colorado Mesa University that temperatures in Colorado and globally have been warming and the projection is for continued warming in the future, โ€œand there is very high confidence in that.โ€

Colorado statewide annual temperature anomaly (F) with respect to the 1901-2000 average. Graphic credit: Becky Bolinger/Colorado Climate Center

Thereโ€™s less certainty about what the future holds for precipitation levels in the future in the state, other than that they will continue to be highly variable. But increasing temperatures will have water-related impacts even if precipitation patterns donโ€™t change much, he said during the Colorado River Districtโ€™s annual water seminar. He said seven of Coloradoโ€™s nine warmest years on record, averaged across the state, have occurred since 2012 and the warming trend has been particularly notable in the summer and fall. This yearโ€™s climatological summer, from June through August, tied for the sixth-warmest on record in the state, and the nine hottest summers all have been since 2000, he said. The average summer temperature at the Grand Junction Regional Airport this year was the hottest on record, he said…lows in the Colorado River have been declining since 2000. Annual flows at Lees Ferry below Lake Powell averaged 15 million acre feet during the 20th century but have averaged about 12.5 million acre feet since 2000, which has had some very dry years, he said…

The Colorado Climate Center addressed the impacts of climate change in the state in a report it issued in January. It projects that by 2050, under a medium-low carbon emissions scenario, Colorado statewide annual temperatures will warm between 2.5 to 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit compared to a 1971-2000 baseline, and 1 to 4 degrees compared to today.

Shumacher said that although thereโ€™s less certainty how climate change will affect precipitation in the state, warmer temperatures along with wind and low humidity result in increased evaporative demand, with dry air pulling moisture from trees, soils, crops and surface waters. That means there are times even when precipitation levels are higher that the water doesnโ€™t go as far. Higher evaporative demand also increases the odds of drought happening and makes droughts more intense…At the Colorado River at Dotsero, peak flows already are declining and there has been about a 25% decline in flows in July and August, he said. Climate projections for the river at Dotsero show increased streamflows in the spring as runoff happens earlier due to earlier snowmelt, but then big declines in flows in July and August, โ€œwhich is when you really need (water), especially if you donโ€™t have storage,โ€ Schumacher said. The changing climate also is expected to result in a continued trend of more and bigger wildfires, and possibly cause more extreme precipitation and flooding, among other hazards. But Schumacher said itโ€™s important to remember that what is projected to happen in the Colorado Climate Center report isnโ€™t all locked in, as it is a trajectory based on where things are headed now in terms of carbon emissions and the climate policies currently in place.

The absolute urgency of voting with the climate in mind — @HighCountryNews

Denver School Strike for Climate, September 20, 2019.

Click the link to read the article on the High Country News website (Ruxandra Guidi):

September 23, 2024

The upcoming election may be the most important one of your lifetime. It is no less than a referendum on our climate and our future. It is that serious and urgent.

According to a study by the nonprofit Climate Central, large fires that burn 1,000 acres or more have tripled in the Western U.S. between 1970 and 2015. Last year was the warmest on record, a trend that is expected to continue. The country has been warming more rapidly than the global average since the late 1970s, and the West and Alaska have been at the forefront of that trend.

Concerns about the economy, housing, transportation infrastructure, farming, public health are climate issues, too โ€” and increasingly so. Any vote this election, whether local or national, will be a vote on the climate.

Iโ€™m not trying to fan your doomsday fears. Quite the opposite: I want to try to drive us all into action. We must move from climate despair to climate repair, even though that can feel so abstract and seemingly insurmountable.

One reason climate repair feels out of reach involves the kind of people weโ€™ve been choosing to represent us. Currently, there areย 123 climate deniersย in the U.S. Congress who have received lifetime fossil fuel contributions totaling $52,071,133, according to data analyzed by the Center for American Progress policy institute. If you happen to live in Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Colorado, Idaho, Arizona, California, Nevada or Oregon, you have elected officials who may be single-handedly blocking the way to climate-friendly policies. Three-fourths of the congressional representatives of Western states publicly claim that climate change isnโ€™t real and are therefore unwilling to invest any time and resources in climate solutions.

These public officials arenโ€™t just refusing to work on solutions to our climate reality โ€” they are outright denying that a problem exists. If that doesnโ€™t make you mad, it should. But what are you going to do about it? Anger, like repair, can be abstract and insurmountable; anger can even be harmful unless we can channel it toward change. Toward votes.

Iโ€™ve been thinking a lot about this since last year, when the Pew Research Center found that half of people living in the West said that climate change is going make life in their region harder over the next three decades. As someone who has lived in the Southwest for most of my adult life, I have witnessed those rising temperatures and longer wildfire seasons and worsening drought conditions, and I share in this collective fear.

But hereโ€™s what else last yearโ€™s Pew data pointed to: Younger adults are more likely than older adults to expect adverse impacts from climate change in their communities. Whether they lean Democratic or Republican or are unaffiliated, people between 18 and 29 years old say that they are more concerned about climate impacts than the rest of us. The older we get and the farther we live from the reality of wildfires and the floods, the less alarmed we seem to be about climate change.

This shouldnโ€™t surprise anyone. Young people have been carrying the climate action torch these last few years, filing lawsuits against Big Oil and protesting fossil fuel-friendly public officials. And now, just two months before the presidential election, polls are showing that the teenagers and the 20- and 30-year-olds will continue to lead the rest of us.

Earlier this summer I spoke with Magaly Saenz, a 33-year-old small-business owner who runs Tres Leches Cafรฉ in Phoenix with her partner. In her free time, she volunteers with Chispa Arizona, a grassroots group that invites local Latinos into environmental justice actions and conversations. She also volunteers with the Sierra Club and The Wilderness Society, advocating for the protection of Arizona public lands.

โ€œHistorically, when our (the Democratic) party is in office, when we have a majority in the House and in the Senate, we get very complacent and we make excuses (for public officials),โ€ she told me. โ€œWeโ€™ll say, โ€˜At least theyโ€™re not that guy.โ€™โ€ So, Magaly said, when she compared them to other politicians that were even worse on climate issues, she generally let it go. Magaly told me that she used to be the kind of person who thought of voting as a document you sign every four years. She would cast her vote, but didnโ€™t push to get measures into the ballot to begin with. Then, five years ago, she began volunteering and protesting, talking with other Latino families and encouraging them to do the same. Her coffee shop has become a hub for grassroots political activism, a place where people come to brainstorm about the best ways to use their civic muscle.

โ€œYounger generations are looking at (most politicians today) and saying, โ€˜Nope.โ€™ Theyโ€™re lighting a lot of fires,โ€ she said. โ€œAnd hopefully this will inspire other people to run for office.โ€

There is already some change underway: The number of climate deniers in Congress continues to go down โ€” from 150 four years ago, around the time Magaly became politically engaged, to 123 today. If we want to see more public officials embrace climate repair in the way we need, we need to take that one basic first step: Vote for the right people. Do your part. (If you arenโ€™t yet registered to vote, you can do it here: https://www.usa.gov/register-to-vote .)

โ€œEncountersโ€ is a serial column exploring life and landscape during the climate crisis.

Reaction to demolition of smokestacks at San Juan Generating Station — Tรณ Nizhรณnรญ รnรญ

Credit: Ecoflight and Benjamin Hunter

Click the link to read the release on the Tรณ Nizhรณnรญ รnรญ website (Mike Eisenfeld, Jane Pargiter,ย Robyn Jackson, Eleanor Smith,ย Rose Rushing):

August 24, 2024

Advocates have been working for years to facilitate a transition to clean energy, ending coalโ€™s polluting legacy and the regionโ€™s economic over-dependence on fossil fuels.

Waterflow, N.M. โ€“ At 9 a.m. on Saturday morning, explosions rocked the bases of the four massive smokestacks that dotted the horizon just west of Farmington for a half century, and they then came crashing down in a thundering cloud of dust. The demolition of the 400-foot-tall behemoths at San Juan Generating Station (โ€œSJGSโ€) marks the close of yet another chapter in more than 50 years of coal and its domination of the economy in the Four Corners region. 

The San Juan Generating Station in mid-June of 2022 The two middle units (#2 and #3) were shut down in 2017 to help the plant comply with air pollution limits. Unit #1 shut down mid-June 2022 and #4 was shut down on September 30, 2022. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

The plant opened in 1973 and originally had four coal-burning units. Units 2 and 3 were closed in 2017 and Units 1 and 4 continued operating until September 2022, when they were also retired permanently. Units 1 and 2 were jointly owned by Public Service of New Mexico (โ€œPNMโ€) and Tucson Electric Power. Units 3 and 4 provided power to PNM and a mix of municipal utilities and rural electric cooperatives in New Mexico, Colorado, Utah and as far as California.

Operating at full capacity, the plant was a major source of pollution, pumping more than 12 million tons a year of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and emitting more than 10,000 tons of nitrogen oxides annually, a major component of the regionโ€™s notoriously smoggy air. It also consumed billions of gallons of water every year from the San Juan River. 

Following are reactions of local and regional advocates who collectively have been working for decades to accelerate the regionโ€™s transition from polluting fossil fuels to renewable resources for generating electricity, most of which serves distant communities.

***

โ€œIndigenous advocates have long brought attention to the many adverse public health, land, and water quality impacts resulting from the operations at SJGS and Four Corners Power Plant (โ€œFCPPโ€), pointing out the environmental injustice that Indigenous and local communities were saddled with in living so close to two coal mines and plantsโ€, said Robyn Jackson, executive director of Dinรฉ C.A.R.E. โ€œWe can remember the terrible air quality that both plants produced in our region. It therefore came as no surprise that health disparities existed among our population, compared to the rest of the U.S. general population when it came to childhood asthma, as well as other illnesses like heart disease, cancer, and stroke. Our tribal-led organization recognizes that it is necessary and inevitable that our local economy be rebuilt around development that is renewable, sustainable, and regenerative. The health of our communities, economy and climate will require a transition away from fossil fuels if we are to survive and succeed.โ€

***

โ€œWe are hopeful that after the demolition of San Juan Generating Station, the Four Corners area and its communities will no longer have to sacrifice our health and safety for fossil fuels,โ€ said Rose Rushing, attorney at Western Environmental Law Center. โ€œThere is work to be done to ensure that the region can transition to a sustainable, diversified economy, starting with fulfilling the commitments of the Energy Transition Act. We look forward to working with community groups in the next year to make sure our community receives the full benefits the Energy Transition Act promises.โ€ 

***

โ€œThe closure and demolition of PNMโ€™s San Juan Generating Station marks yet another milestone, a step in the right direction away from fossil fuels and a step toward what we hope will be a just and equitable transition to more fossil-free energies such as wind, solar, and other sustainable, renewable, and real solutions that will truly combat climate change, said Eleanor Smith,  Community Organizer of the Dinรฉ grassroots community organization Tรณ Nizhรณnรญ รnรญ. โ€œOur hope is also that false solutions such as blue hydrogen and carbon capture sequestration are not sought nor implemented. The Navajo Nation and the Four Corners area have long histories of environmental injustices that continue to contribute to the climate chaos we are in.  Now is the time for us, the impacted people who live and work in the Four Corners area, to plan and write the narrative of our fossil-free energy future, rather than the historical dictation by industry, energy companies, or others.  We must say Kโ€™adรญ (stop) the harm to Nihimรก Nahasdzรกรกn, our Mother Earth, which includes us all.โ€   

***

โ€œIโ€™ve lived in Farmington for 26 years, and it wasnโ€™t until 2022 when the plant finally shut down that the brown haze lifted and we could see to the horizon,โ€ said Mike Eisenfeld, the climate and energy program director for San Juan Citizens Alliance. โ€œItโ€™s always difficult to close one chapter and begin a new one, but knowing that children can breathe air that isnโ€™t as polluted and being able to see this region for its beauty, which has been cloaked in smog for 50 years, is a good thing. There is huge potential for clean energy development and for diversifying our economy beyond just energy, and the demolition of these smokestacks is important symbolically for turning that page.โ€

After less than two years of careful mitigation efforts and demolition work, the former Martin Drake Power Plant has been taken to ground level — @MayorofCOS

Thank you to Colorado Springs Utilities and the Utilities Board for their leadership in helping to chart a bright future for our city. A changing energy future means a fresh outlook on what is possible, including new opportunities. I appreciate Utilitiesโ€™ work and diligence in implementing the right balance of clean energy, cost management and reliability while also prioritizing the needs of our community.

In 2023, Earthโ€™s major atmospheric greenhouse gasesโ€”carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxideโ€”reached record highs again — @NOAANCEI #ActOnClimate

See

CIRES scientistsโ€™ contributions in the State of Climate 2023 report: https://bit.ly/2023BAMSSotC

The stacks go down, the energy transition moves forward: Plus: Wacky Weather Watch — Jonathan P. Thompson (www.landdesk.org) #ActOnClimate

The San Juan Generating Station in mid-June of 2022 The two middle units (#2 and #3) were shut down in 2017 to help the plant comply with air pollution limits. Unit #1 shut down mid-June 2022 and #4 was shut down on September 30, 2022. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article (and to view the cool video from EcoFlight.com) on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

After five decades of spewing sulfur dioxide, ash, mercury, arsenic, carbon dioxide, and other pollutants into the northwestern New Mexico air, the four stacks of the San Juan Generating Station were brought down in spectacular fashion this past weekend. Sadly, I missed it in real life, but even the videos leave me feeling a bit giddy, as the controlled demolition heralds a new, cleaner, hopefully more just era in the Four Corners. 

Itโ€™s symbolic, of course: The real action happened in September 2022, when the last of the plantโ€™s four units burned through the final ton of coal and the turbine [quit] turning for good. But what a symbol it is, for the region and for me, personally: The power plant, and, to an even larger degree, itโ€™s older, bigger sister plant, Four Corners, have loomed over my existence ever since I was very young. 

Four Corners was constructed in 1964, and was the flagship of a massive effort by a consortium of utilities called WEST, or Western Energy Supply and Transmission Associates. They hoped to construct six massive coal-fired power plants and accompanying mines across the Colorado Plateau, which would then ship power hundreds of miles to rapidly growing Los Angeles, San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Albuquerque across high-voltage lines. 

Not only did the growing supply of cheap power โ€” and air-conditioning and water pumping โ€” help the population of the Southwestโ€™s cities soar, but the marketing caused the average Americanโ€™s electricity consumption to grow four-fold between 1946 and 1968. โ€œWe are, in short, on an energy binge,โ€ Harvey Mudd, Director of the Santa Fe-based Central Clearing House told the congressional committee in 1971, โ€œwhich, like all binges, can only end in disaster.โ€

Muddโ€™s warning may even be more timely in 2024, as we embark on a new electricity binge to power the proliferation of energy-hungry AI-processing and cryptocurrency-mining data centers. 

Four Corners Power Plant was the first of the six to go online, sprouting on the edge of the Navajo Nation, atop the Fruitland formation, about 15 miles from Farmington. The relatively sparse population, along with the dearth of environmental regulations, allowed the mine and plant largely to be built under the radar. But once it started churning out juice, and pollution โ€” to the tune of over 400 tons of particulate matter per day, along with sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and mercury โ€” no one could miss the behemoth. The facility, along with the smog its pollutants gave way to, became a smoke-spewing symbol of energy colonialism, landscape-scale industrialization, and humansโ€™ ability to spoil the environment. 

It helped give rise to a regional environmental movement, made up of elected officials, concerned residents, and advocates, which protested the pollution and implored a congressional committee in 1971 to block further power plant construction. 

But the impassioned rhetoric fell on deaf ears. After Four Corners came Mojave, Navajo Generating Station near Lake Powell, Huntington in Utah, and San Juan Generating Station, just across the river from Four Corners. They all had better pollution control systems than Four Corners did initially, but together they still kicked out thousands of tons of pollutants along with tens of millions of tons of planet-warming carbon dioxide each year, leaving the Four Corners Region to appear as if it had once again been inundated by a vast sea, only instead of water it was comprised of smog. Only the largest of all those slated to be built, the 5,000-megawatt Kaipairowitz plant, which would have sat on the western shore of Lake Powell eating up coal from land that was later included in Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument, was not constructed.

I was born in the midst of the Big Buildup in 1970, and not long after I became conscious of the world around me I learned that the haze in the air that blotted out the once-expansive views of my homeland was not natural. And I learned that the main culprit were the new coal-burning power plants that loomed over the sere landscape. It was probably my first understanding of environmental destruction. 

A decade and some years later, on a mid-summerโ€™s eve, when I was in my late teens or early 20s, I drove my 1967 AMC Rambler station wagon west from my dadโ€™s house in Cortez, over undulating gravel roads past hay fields, with their perfectly cubical hay bales lined up in a row, casting long shadows across the bright green, monsoon-moistened, freshly cut field. I was headed to The Point, atop the McElmo Dome, out beyond the last bean and hay fields. It was a nice place to camp because of its proximity to Cortez, but more importantly because of the views. You could see all the way to Monument Valley and Navajo Mountain โ€” if the air was clear, which was rare. 

I didnโ€™t like the smog, but I also didnโ€™t really know anything different, since the smog was there before I was, and never really abated, given that the power plants churned round-the-clock, every day of the year. I had resigned myself to it; call it normalized degradation.

Navajo Mountain March 2023. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

After watching the smog-enhanced sunset, punctuated by distant lightning strikes, I lay out my sleeping bag on the sandstone rim and covered it with a tarp and fell asleep. Deep in the night I was woken by lightning and thunder and huge raindrops pelting the tarp. I snuggled up underneath and let it lull me back asleep. When I awoke before sunrise I was startled by the clarity of the air. I not only could see the landforms of Monument Valley and the dark curve of Navajo Mountain, but I could see fissures in the sandstone and canyons on the mountainside. It was truly glorious to watch the sunlight spread across the landscape like that. 

But my revery soon was interrupted. A yellowish-gray amoeba, coming from the south, oozed its way up the canyons toward me. It was no mystery. It was smog, rushing in from the Four Corners and San Juan plants to replace the stuff that had been washed out by the nightโ€™s heavy rains. A sadness and anger rose up in me then, and I think itโ€™s lingered ever since, motivating much of what I do.

So it was with a sense of satisfaction that I watched the video of the smokestacks falling into a cloud of their own demise. 

This graph shows the full record of monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The carbon dioxide data on Mauna Loa constitute the longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of 1958 at the NOAA Weather Station on Mauna Loa volcano. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by Scripps since. (Image credit: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory)

Notes from the energy transition — Jonathan P. Thompson

April 19, 2024

Photo credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/Land Desk

โ€œEAT USA BEEF DRILL USA OIL.โ€ So said the sign, in red and blue lettering against a white background, along a La Plata County road I took on a little trip down to northwestern New Mexico last week. It must have had some effect on me. Because after taking a run through the coalbed methane fields, I headed straight to Blakeโ€™s Lotaburger in Aztec and partoโ€ฆ

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โ›ˆ๏ธ Wacky Weather Watchโšก๏ธ

Weather is weird. Always has been. But the last few weeks have been especially wacky in the West, as massive wildfires and resulting smoke meet up with record-breaking high temperatures, monsoonal deluges, and the resulting landslides and flash floods. 

Weโ€™ve covered the high temps here, so letโ€™s look at the moisture, which should bring relief, but actually wreaks destruction. 

  • For the third time this summer, the monsoon mobbed Moab as a series of thunderstorms pounded the area and triggered flash flooding in and around the town. The National Weather Service showed rainfall amounts ranging from .76 inches at the Arches National Park HQ, to .95 inches at Canyonlands, to 1.01 inches at La Sal โ€” all falling in a very short period of time. Mill Creek, which is normally a clear, gurgling brook that flows through the south side of downtown, turned into a raging, chocolate-milk-colored, debris-tossingย monsterย โ€” peaking out at 6,810 cubic feet per second, according to the USGS streamgage. And this one put the โ€œflashโ€ back into โ€œflash floodโ€: On the morning of Aug. 23, the stream was a mere trickle at .36 cfs; by 8 p.m. that night it had ballooned up to 900 cfs; and it hit its 6,810 cfs high point at 8:30 p.m. before rapidly subsiding.
The streamflow gage reading for Mill Creek below its The streamflow gage reading for Mill Creek below its confluence with confluence with Pack Creek in Moab. Notice how fast it rose and subsided. Source: USGS.
  • Havasu Falls in the Grand Canyon โ€” known for its luminous blue waters โ€” swelled up so quickly after intense rainfall that it overwhelmed the stream gage: The readings simply disappear during the highest flows. But the torrent, whichย killed one hikerย and forced the helicopter evacuation of more than 100 others, was recorded in other forms and itย looks like it was a whopper. The Havasupai tribal council has closed their lands to tourists indefinitely in the floodโ€™s aftermath.ย Good viewย of how the falls went from captivating to terrifying in a matter of minutes.
  • The dry winter in the Northern Rockies is coming home to roost in the form of big wildfires in northern Wyoming and southern Montana, including:ย 
    • Flat Rock and Constitution Fires: Together they have charred nearly 80,000 acres near the massive coal mines and in the coalbed methane fields near Gillette, Wyoming.
    • House Draw Fire has burned across about 175,000 acres east and south of Buffalo, Wyoming.
    • The Remington Fire has scorched nearly 200,000 acres straddling the Wyoming-Montana border east of Sheridan.
    • The Fish Creek Fire in Teton County is around 11,000 acres.

And, in Alaska, unusually intense rainfallย triggered a landslide/debris flowย on a slope in Ketchikan, killing one person, injuring three more, and destroying homes and infrastructure.ย 

It can be tempting to attribute all of this wackiness to climate change โ€” some media outlets are even blaming it for a freak yacht-sinking off of Sicily โ€” itโ€™s not prudent and probably not accurate to do so. Neither the rainfall, nor the floods that resulted, are unprecedented (okay, itโ€™s hard to know with Havasu Falls since the gage failed at the moment of truth). USGS data show that peak streamflows on Mill Creek in Moab, for example, are trending downward over time.

But it is fair to say that as the planet warms, we can expect weather to get wackier and more extreme. What weโ€™re seeing now may just be a mild prelude to whatโ€™s yet to come.

San Juan Generating station demolition — Megan Gleason (@fabflutist2716) #ActOnClimate #coal

San Juan Generating Station smokestacks come down

When will climate change turn life in the U.S. upside down? — Yale #Climate Connections

Painting by Henry C. Pitz showing John Wesley Powell and his party descending the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon, presumably during the historic 1869 expedition. (Image credit: Smithsonian Institution, Bureau of American Ethnology)

Click the link to read the article on the Yale Climate Connections website (Jeff Masters):

August 19, 2024

Intensifying extreme weather events and an insurance crisis are likely to cause significant economic and political disruption in the U.S. sometime in the next 15 years.

The words of explorer John Wesley Powell on the eve of his departure into the unexplored depths of the Grand Canyon in 1869 best describe how I see our path ahead as we brave the unknown rapids of climate change:

Powellโ€™s expedition made it through the canyon, but the explorers endured great hardship, suffering near-drownings, the destruction of two of their four boats, and the loss of much of their supplies. In the end, only six of the nine men survived.

Likewise, we find ourselves in an ever-deepening chasm of climate change impacts, forced to run a perilous course through dangerous rapids of unknown ferocity. Our path will be fraught with great peril, and there will be tremendous suffering, great loss of life, and the destruction of much that is precious.

It is inevitable that climate change will stop being a hazy future concern and will someday turn everyday life upside down. Very hard times are coming. At the risk of causing counterproductive climate anxiety and doomism, I offer here some observations and speculations on how the planetary crisis may play out, using my 45 years of experience as a meteorologist, including four years of flying with the Hurricane Hunters and 20 years blogging about extreme weather and climate change. The scenarios that I depict as the most likely are much harsher than what other experts might choose, but Iโ€™ve seen repeatedly that uncertainty is not our friend when it comes to climate change. This will be a long and intense ride, but if you stick through the end, I promise there will be a rainbow.

By late this century, I am optimistic that we will have successfully ridden the rapids of the climate crisis, emerging into a new era of non-polluting energy with a stabilizing climate. There are too many talented and dedicated people who understand the problem and are working hard on solutions for us to fail.

Figure 1. America is about as unprepared for a dangerous trip down the rapids of climate change as this group would have been going down the rapids of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon. Photo taken at the Colorado River crossing at Hite Ferry, Utah, in 1946. (Image credit: Utah Historical Society)

Jump to a section of this essay

What is a dangerous level of climate change?

The 1974 made-for-TV movieย Hurricaneย included a subplot loosely based on the hurricane party that allegedly occurred during the 1969 landfall of category 5 Hurricane Camille in Mississippi. The predictable catastrophic end to the party is depicted at 0:05-second mark of the trailer above.ย Though the party never happened, legendary TV anchorman Walter Cronkite perpetuated the hurricane party story during one of his broadcasts after the hurricane. As the camera panned over the cement slab littered with debris that marked the former location of the Richelieu Apartments, Cronkite narrated:ย โ€œThis is the site of the Richelieu Apartments in Pass Christian, Mississippi. This is the place where 23 people laughed in the face of death. And where 23 people died.โ€

Although there is a major climate change hurricane approaching, weโ€™re busy throwing a hurricane party, charging up our planetary credit card to pay for the expenses, with little regard to the approaching storm that is already cutting off our escape routes. This great storm will fundamentally rip at the fabric of society, creating chaos and a crisis likely to last for many decades.

The intensifying climate change storm will soon reach a threshold I think of as a category 1 hurricane for humanity โ€” when long-term global warming surpasses 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures, a value increasingly characterized over the last decade as โ€œdangerousโ€ climate change.

For humanity as a whole, this amount of warming is risky, but not devastating. Global warming is currently at about 1.2-1.3 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures and is likely to cross the 1.5-degree threshold in the late 2020s or early 2030s.

Assuming that we donโ€™t work exceptionally hard to reduce emissions in the next 10 years, the world is expected to reach 2 degrees Celsius of warming between 2045 and 2051. In my estimation, that will be akin to a major category 3 hurricane for humanity โ€” devastating, but not catastrophic.

Allowing global warming to exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius will cause category 4-level damage to civilization โ€” approaching the catastrophic level. And warming in excess of 3 degrees Celsius will likely be a catastrophic category 5-level superstorm of destruction that will crash civilization.

We must take strong action rapidly to rein in our emissions of heat-trapping gases to avoid that outcome โ€” and build great resilience to the extreme climate of the 21st century that we have so foolishly brought upon ourselves.

According to the Carbon Action Tracker (see tweet below), we are on track for 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming; if the nations of the world meet their targets for reducing heat-trapping climate pollution, warming will be limited to 2.1 degrees. Thereโ€™s a big difference between being hit by a Cat 4 versus a Cat 3, and every tenth of a degree of warming that we prevent will be critical.

Climate changeโ€™s impacts will be highly asymmetric

As climate scientist Michael Mann explains in his latest book, โ€œOur Fragile Moment,โ€ great climate science communicator Stephen Schneider once said, โ€œThe โ€˜end of the worldโ€™ or โ€˜good for youโ€™ are the two least likely among the spectrum of potential [climate] outcomes.โ€ So forget sci-fi depictions of planetary apocalypse. That will not be our long-term climate change fate.

But the impacts of climate change will be apocalyptic for many nations and people โ€” particularly those that are not rich and White. People and communities with the least resources tend to be the first and hardest hit by climate change, not only because poorer people and communities are inherently more vulnerable to the impacts of any disaster, but also because the extremes induced by climate change tend to be worse in the tropics and subtropics, home to many poor nations.

In the U.S., climate change has already turned life upside down for numerous communities. For example, in North Carolina, the financially strapped, Black-majority towns of Fair Bluff and Princeville are in danger of abandonment from hurricane-related flooding (from Hurricane Floyd in 1999, Matthew in 2016, and Florence in 2018). Seven Springs, North Carolina (population 207 in 1960, now just 55) is largely abandoned.

Climate change was a key contributor to these floods; a 2021 study found that about one-third of the cost of major U.S. flood events since 1988, totaling $79 billion, could be attributed to climate change. And for the town of Paradise, California โ€” utterly destroyed by the devastating Camp Fire of 2018, which killed 85 and caused over $16 billion in damage โ€” climate change has been apocalyptic.

An immediate U.S. climate change threat: an insurance crisis

In the U.S., the most likely major economic disruption from climate change over the next few years might well be a collapse of the housing market in flood-prone and wildfire-prone states. Billion-dollar weather disasters โ€” which cause about 76% of all weather-related damages โ€” have steadily increased in number and expense in recent years and would be even worse were it not for improved weather forecasts and better building codes. The recent increase in weather-disaster losses has brought on an insurance crisis โ€” especially in Florida, Louisiana, California, and Texas โ€” which threatens one of the bedrocks of the U.S. economy, the housing and real estate market.

In California, the insurer of last resort, the FAIR plan, had only about $250 million in cash on hand as of March 2024.

โ€œOne major fire near Lake Arrowhead, where the Plan holds $8 billion in policies, would plunge the whole scheme into insolvency,โ€ observed Harvardโ€™s Susan Crawford, author of โ€œCharleston: Race, Water, and the Coming Storm.โ€

It is widely acknowledged that higher weather disaster losses result primarily from an increase in exposure: more people with more stuff moving into vulnerable places, including those at risk of floods. Martin Bertogg, Swiss Reโ€™s head of catastrophic peril, said in a 2022 AP interview that two-thirds, perhaps more, of the recent rise in weather-related disaster losses is the result of more people and things in harmโ€™s way.

But this balance will likely shift in the coming decades. Increased exposure will continue to drive increased weather disaster losses, but the fractional contribution of climate change to disaster losses โ€” at least for wildfire, hurricane, and flood disasters โ€” is likely to increase rapidly, making the insurance crisis accelerate.

Figure 2. County-level overvaluation of property from flood risk. Florida had the highest property overvaluation โ€” about $50 billion. In 2021, Floridaโ€™s real estate industry accounted for $294 billion, or 24% of the gross state product, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors. (Image credit: Gourevitch et al., 2023, Unpriced climate risk and the potential consequences of overvaluation in US housing markets, Nature Climate Change volume 13, pages 250โ€“257)

A 2023 study (Fig. 2) drew attention to a massive real estate bubble in the U.S.: the vast number of properties whose purported value doesnโ€™t account for the true costs of floods. The study estimated that across the U.S., residential properties are overvalued by a total of $121-$237 billion under current flood risks. This bubble will likely continue to grow as sea levels rise, storms dump heavier rains, and unwise risky development continues.

Likewise, U.S. properties at risk of wildfires are collectively overvalued by about $317 billion, according to David Burt, a financial guru who foresaw the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Insurers are already pulling out of the areas most at risk, threatening to make property ownership too expensive for millions and posing a serious threat to the economically critical real estate industry.

Climate futurist Alex Steffen has described the climate change-worsened real estate bubble this way:

Something brittle is prone to a sudden, catastrophic failure and cannot easily be repaired once broken. The popping of the real estate Brittleness Bubble will potentially trigger panic selling and a housing market collapse like a miniature version of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 but focused on the 20% of American homes in wildfire and flood risk zones. In his 2023 Congressional testimony, Burt estimated that a wildfire and flood-induced repricing of risk of the U.S. housing market could have a quarter to half the impact of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis.

However, the 2008 crisis was relatively short-lived, as fixes to the financial system and a massive federal bailout led to a rebound in property values after a few years. A climate change-induced housing crisis will likely be resistant to a similar fix because the underlying cause will worsen: Sea levels will continue to rise, flooding heavy rains will intensify, and wildfires will grow more severe, increasing risk.

Science writer Eugene Linden wrote in 2023, โ€œas we saw in 2008, a housing crisis can quickly morph into a systemic financial crisis because banks own most of the value, and thus the risk, in housing and commercial real estate.โ€

Crawford of Harvard recently wrote: โ€œBecause insurance can help communities and households recover more quickly from disasters, and because so much of the U.S. economy is driven by spending on housing, the inaccessibility and unaffordability of insurance poses a threat to the stability of the entire economy.โ€

As Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat from Rhode Island, said earlier this year, โ€œThe thing about economic crises is that they come on slowly, until they come on fast.โ€

How the insurance crisis may play out: the โ€œWholly irrational and completely ad-hoc pirate capitalismโ€ solution

In his blunt 2023 essay, โ€œInsurance Politics at the End of the World,โ€ journalist Hamilton Nolan offers these thoughts on the potential ways this climate change-induced insurance crisis could be addressed:

When will the Brittleness Bubble pop?

When might this โ€œcrash into the wall of realityโ€ happen and the Brittleness Bubble pop? Politicians are working extremely hard to keep their jobs by delaying this day of reckoning, artificially limiting insurance rate rises and offering state-run insurance plans of last resort. This approach โ€” the equivalent of giving a blood transfusion to the injured, without stopping the bleeding โ€”ย does not fix the underlying problem and all but guarantees that the pain of the eventual national reckoning will be much larger. Insurance is designed to transfer risk, but risk is rising everywhere. [ed. emphasis mine]

Crawford addressed the issue in a 2024 essay, โ€œWho ends up holding the bag when risky real estate markets collapse?โ€ Citing financial guru Burt, she concluded: โ€œ2025 or 2026 is when things give way and it becomes very difficult to offload houses and buildings in risky places where mortgages are suddenly hard to get, much less insurance.โ€ When asked in anย interview with Marketplaceย if the market is due for another correction, as homeowners in places with growing risk of flooding and wildfire have to pay more for insurance, Burt said:

In the same Marketplace story, though, Ben Keys, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvaniaโ€™s Wharton School, said, โ€œThe idea that we would expect there to be a huge wave of defaults or delinquencies feels relatively unlikely.โ€

But like Burt, climate change futurist Steffen predicts the real estate Brittleness Bubble will pop within five years (10 at the most).

This reckoning could come sooner for Florida if another $100-billion hurricane hits. The Florida insurance and coastal property market did manage to withstand the $117-billion cost of Category 4 Hurricane Ian of 2022, but another blow like that might well cause a severe downward spiral in the Florida real estate market from which it might never fully recover. This vulnerability was underscored by Florida Gov. DeSantis during a 2023 radio interview with a Boston host, when DeSantis suggested homeowners should โ€œknock on woodโ€ and hope the state didnโ€™t get hit by a hurricane in 2024.

But โ€œknocking on woodโ€ is not an effective climate adaptation strategy for Florida. Because of climate change, Mother Nature is now able to whip heavier bowling balls with more devastating impact down Hurricane Alley. Itโ€™s only a matter of time before she hurls a strike into a major Florida city, causing an intensified coastal real estate and insurance crisis. And the odds of such a strike are higher than average in 2024 because of record-warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, combined with a developing La Niรฑa event.

Like this hyper-strike rolling robot, Mother Nature is now able to whip heavier bowling balls with more devastating impact down hurricane alley because of the extra heat energy in the oceans from human-caused global warming.

Watch out for increased coastal flooding in the mid-2030s

We may manage to avoid a coastal real estate market crash in the next 10 years if we get lucky with hurricanes and if our politicians continue to pump huge amounts of money to bail out the failing system.

But it will become increasingly difficult to keep the coastal property market propped up beginning in the mid-2030s, because of accelerating sea level rise combined with an 18.6-year wobble in the moonโ€™s orbit. Thus, I expect that the longest we might stave off the popping of the coastal real estate Brittleness Bubble is 15 years.

Figure 3. Predicted change in minor flooding days (>1.74 feet above high tide) in St. Petersburg, Florida, under an โ€œintermediate-highโ€ sea level rise scenario (5.33 feet of sea level rise in 2100 compared to 2000). (Image credit: NASA sea level rise tool)

As I wrote in my 2023 post, 30 great tools to determine your flood risk in the U.S., beginning in 2033, the moon will be in a position favorable for bringing higher tides to locations where one high tide and low tide per day dominate. This will bring a rapid increase in high tide flooding to the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico, the Southeast, the West Coast, and Hawaii. This expected acceleration in the mid-2030s is obvious for St. Petersburg (Fig. 3), plotted using NASAโ€™s Flooding Analysis Tool and Flooding Days Projection Tool. The rapid acceleration in coastal flooding simultaneously along a huge swathe of heavily developed U.S. coast in the mid-2030s will be sure to significantly stress the coastal housing market. And according to the Coastal Flood Resilience Project, the nation is flying blind on the possible impacts: There are no national assessments of the potential loss of major, critical infrastructure assets to coastal storms and rising seas.

A second potential immediate U.S. climate change threat: a global food shock

Another immediate danger: a series of global extreme weather events affecting agriculture, causing global economic turmoil.

In my 2024 post, โ€œWhat are the odds that extreme weather will lead to a global food shock?โ€ I reviewed aย 2023 reportย by insurance giant Lloydโ€™s, which modeled the odds of a globally disruptive extreme food shock event bringing simultaneous droughts in key global food-growing breadbaskets. The authors estimated that a โ€œmajorโ€ food shock scenario costing $3 trillion globally over a five-year period had a 2.3% chance of happening per year (Fig. 4). Over a 30-year period, those odds equate to about a 50% probability of occurrence โ€” assuming the risks are not increasing each year, which, in fact, they are.

Figure 4. The 2023 โ€˜Extreme weather leading to food and water shockโ€™ scenario from Lloydโ€™s. (Image credit: modified from this image)

โ€œBlack swanโ€ and โ€œgray swanโ€ extreme weather events

Yet another concern for the U.S. is the risk of wholly unanticipated โ€œblack swanโ€ extreme weather events that scientists didnโ€™t see coming. As Harvard climate scientists Paul Epstein and James McCarthy wrote in a 2004 paper, โ€œAssessing Climate Instabilityโ€: โ€œWe are already observing signs of instability within the climate system. There is no assurance that the rate of greenhouse gas buildup will not force the system to oscillate erratically and yield significant and punishing surprises.โ€

One example of such a punishing surprise was Superstorm Sandy of 2012, that unholy hybrid spawn of a Caribbean hurricane/extratropical storm that became the largest hurricane ever observed and one of the most damaging, costing $88 billion. And who anticipated that a siege of climate-change-intensified wildfires in western North America beginning in 2017, causing multiple summers of horrific air quality that would significantly degrade the quality of life in the West? Or the jet stream experiencing a sudden increase in unusually extreme configurations over the past 20 years, leading to prolonged periods of intense extreme weather over multiple portions of the globe simultaneously? As the late climate scientist Wally Broecker once said, โ€œClimate is an angry beast, and we are poking at it with sticks.โ€

Just as concerning might be future โ€œgray swanโ€ events โ€” extreme weather events that climate models anticipate could happen but exceed anything in the historical record. (โ€œGray swanโ€ is an expression first coined by hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel in his 2016 paper, โ€œGrey swan tropical cyclones.โ€) Several potential gray swan events I have written about include a $1 trillion California โ€œARkStormโ€ flood, the potential failure of the Old River Control Structure during an extreme flood that allows the Mississippi River to change course, or a storm like 2015โ€™s Hurricane Patricia, with winds over 200 mph, hitting Miami, Galveston/Houston, Tampa, or New Orleans. The risk of gray swan events is steadily increasing.

A โ€œnew normalโ€ of extreme weather has not yet arrived

Iโ€™m often asked if the absurdly extreme weather events weโ€™ve been experiencing recently are the new normal. โ€œNo!โ€ I reply. โ€œHeat is energy, so the energy to fuel more intense extreme weather events will increase until we reach net-zero emissions. At that time, the climate will finally stabilize at a new normal with a highly dangerous level of extreme weather events.โ€

Barring a series of extraordinary volcanic eruptions or a majorย geoengineeringย effort, even under an optimistic โ€œlowโ€ emissions climate scenario, the earliest the climate might stabilize is in the mid-2070s (Fig. 5); thus, the weather will grow more extreme, on average, for at least the next 50 years. Considering that CO2 emissions have not yet peaked and may be following the โ€œIntermediateโ€ pathway shown below, there is considerable danger that the weather will still be growing more extreme when todayโ€™s children are very old early next century. But even when net zero emissions are reached, sea level rise will continue to occur at a pace difficult to adapt to, and the climate crisis will continue to intensify.

Figure 5. Wishful thinking: Weโ€™ve reached a โ€œnew normalโ€ of extreme weather. In reality, the weather will keep growing more extreme until net-zero emissions are reached. Under the optimistic โ€œLowโ€ scenario presented here, that will not occur until the mid-2070s. (Image credit: 2023 U.S. National Climate Assessment, with annotation added)

Longer-range concerns: global catastrophic risk events

The high probability that the weather will grow more extreme throughout the lifetime of everybody reading this essay means that we have to take seriously some very bad long-term threats. As I wrote in my 2022 post, โ€œThe future of global catastrophic risk events from climate change,โ€ a global catastrophic risk event is defined as a catastrophe global in impact that kills over 10 million people or causes over $10 trillion (2022 USD) in damage. Since the beginning of the 20th century, there have been only three such events: World War I, World War II, and the COVID-19 pandemic. But climate change is a threat multiplier, increasing the risk of five types of global catastrophic risk events:

  • Drought
  • War
  • Coastal flooding from sea-level rise and land subsidence
  • Pandemics
  • Collapse of theย Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulationย (AMOC), the powerful currents that circulate warm water in the tropical Atlantic Ocean to the Arctic and back (anย August 2024 studyย gave a 59% chance of an AMOC collapse occurring before 2050)

The likeliest of these is a global catastrophic risk event from sea level rise, which is highly likely to occur by the end of the century. For example, a moderate global warming scenario will put $7.9-12.7 trillion dollars of global coastal assets at risk of flooding from sea level rise by 2100, according to a 2020 study, โ€œProjections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st century.โ€ Although this study did not take into account assets that inevitably will be protected by new coastal defenses, neither did it consider the indirect costs of sea level rise from increased storm surge damage, mass migration away from the coast, increased saltiness of fresh water supplies, and many other factors. A 2019 report by the Global Commission on Adaptation estimated that sea level rise will lead to damages of more than $1 trillion per year globally by 2050.

Furthermore, sea level rise, combined with other stressors, might bring about megacity collapse โ€” a frightening possibility when infrastructure destruction, salinification of freshwater resources, and a real estate collapse potentially combine to create a mass exodus of people from a major city, reducing its tax base to the point that it can no longer provide basic services. The collapse of even one megacity might have severe impacts on the global economy, creating increased chances of a cascade of global catastrophic risk events. One megacity potentially at risk of this fate is the capital of Indonesia, Jakarta, with a population of 10 million. Land subsidence of up to two inches per year and sea level rise of about an eighth of an inch per year are causing so much flooding in Jakarta that Indonesia is constructing a new capital city in Borneo.

I also expect one or more climate change-amplified global catastrophic risk events from drought will occur this century. Mexico City, with a metro area population of 22 million, has suffered record heat over the past year, is in danger of its reservoirs running dry, and is drilling ever-deeper wells to tap an overtaxed aquifer. Though the city will muddle through the crisis now that the summer rains have come this year, what is the plan for 30 years from now, when the climate is expected to be drier and much, much hotter? Although Mexico City can greatly improve its water situation by fixing a poorly maintained system that has a 40% loss rate, it is unclear how the city will be able to survive the much hotter and drier climate of 30 years from now. And at least 10 other major cities are in a similar bind.

Technology can help us adapt to a hotter climate by providing air conditioning (if you are rich enough), but technological solutions to create more water availability when the taps run dry are much more difficult to achieve. I believe water shortages will drive a partial collapse of and mass migration out of multiple major cities 20-40 years from now, significantly amplifying global political and economic turmoil. For example, a 2010 study, โ€œLinkages among climate change, crop yields and Mexico-US cross-border migration,โ€ found that a 10% reduction in crop yields in Mexico leads to an additional 2% of the population emigrating to the United States.

In his frightening 2019 book โ€œFood or War,โ€ science writer Julian Cribb documents 25 food conflicts that have led to famine, war, and the deaths of more than a million people โ€” mostly caused by drought. Since 1960, Cribb says, 40-60% of armed conflicts have been linked to resource scarcity, and 80% of major armed conflicts occurred in vulnerable dry ecosystems. Hungry people are not peaceful people, Cribb argues.

Devastating impacts from climate change are accelerating

Though climate change itself is not accelerating faster than what climate scientists and climate models predicted, devastating impacts from climate change do seem to be accelerating. That is because the new climate is crossing thresholds beyond which an infrastructure designed for the 20th century can withstand. These breaches are occurring in tandem with an increase in exposure โ€” more people with more stuff living in harmโ€™s way โ€” which is the dominant cause of the sharp increase in weather-disaster losses in recent years. Itโ€™s sobering to realize that the current U.S. insurance crisis has primarily been driven by increased exposure and foolish insurance policies that promote development in risky places โ€” not climate change โ€” and that climate changeโ€™s relative contribution to the crisis is set to grow significantly.

Accelerating sea level rise alone is sure to cause a massive shock to the U.S. economy; according to a 2022 report from NOAA, sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, 10-12 inches (0.25-0.30 meters) in the next 30 years (2020-2050), which will be as much as the rise measured over the last 100 years (1920-2020). At this level, 13.6 million homes might be at risk of flooding by 2051, triggering a mass migration of millions of people away from the coast.

If we add to sea-level-rise-induced migration the additional migration that will result from climate change-intensified wildfires, heatwaves, and hurricanes, we are forced to acknowledge the reality that a nation-challenging Hurricane Katrina-level climate change storm has already begun in the U.S., one which has the potential to cause catastrophic damage. As I wrote in my June post, The U.S. is finally making serious efforts to adapt to climate change, there have been some encouraging efforts to prepare for the coming mass migration. But, as I argued in my follow-up post, The U.S. is nowhere near ready for climate change, we remain woefully unprepared for what is coming.

And my subsequent post, Can a colossal extreme weather event galvanize action on the climate crisis?, argues that we should not expect that any future extreme weather event or breakdown of the climate system will galvanize the type of response needed โ€” weโ€™ve already had at least 13 events since 1988 that should have done so, yet have not. Even if such an event did prompt strong, transformative change, itโ€™s too late to avoid having life turned upside-down by climate change. Itโ€™s like weโ€™ve waited until our skin started getting red before seeking shade from the sun, and weโ€™re only now taking our first stumbling steps toward shade. Well, itโ€™s a long hike to shade, and a blistering sunburn is unavoidable.

Given the unprecedented nature and complexity of this planetary crisis, there is huge uncertainty on how this drama may unfold; there are climate scientists who offer a more optimistic outlook than I do (for example, Hannah Ritchie, author of โ€œNot the End of the Worldโ€), and those who are more pessimistic (James Hansen).

I suggest that you make the most of the current โ€œcalm before the stormโ€ and prepare for the chaotic times ahead, which could begin at any time. I will offer my recommendations on how to do this in my next post in this series, โ€œWhat should you do to prepare for the climate change storm?โ€

Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology

The urgency to rapidly deal with the climate crisis was succinctly summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its latest summary report: โ€œThere is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a livable and sustainable future for all.โ€

But taking advantage of that window of opportunity is difficult because of human psychological and political realities. In climate scientist Peter Gleickโ€™s 2023 book, โ€œThe Three Ages of Water,โ€ he quotes Harvardโ€™s E.O. Wilson, father of sociobiology, who perhaps said it best: โ€œThe real problem of humanity is the following: We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology. And it is terrifically dangerous, and it is now approaching a point of crisis overall.โ€

The boat of civilization has already hit multiple rocks along the rapids of climate change and is taking on water. Perilous rapids with even more dangerous rocks and waterfalls lie before us, but the course of our boat cannot be so easily altered to avoid the rocks, because of our Paleolithic emotions and medieval institutions. As a result, we may have only a few more years โ€” or perhaps as long as 15 years โ€” of relative normalcy in our everyday lives here in the U.S. before the approaching climate change storm ends our golden age of prosperity. But this โ€œgolden ageโ€ was made of foolโ€™s gold, paid for with wealth plundered from future generations.

Figure 6. The North Rose window of Chartres Cathedral, France, 1190-1220 CE. The stained glass window shows scenes of Jesus Christ, the prophets and 12 kings of Judah. (Image credit: Walwyn) Licensed under Creative Commons BY-NC.

Hope for the future via โ€˜cathedral thinkingโ€™

Though this essay has dwelt on some grim realities, I am optimistic that we will prevent climate change from becoming a civilization-destroying category 5-level catastrophe. But we must fight extremely hard to correct the course of our boat and not allow its inertia to carry us into the rocks that stud the rapids of climate change. This is not a task that can be accomplished in our lifetimes.

Susan Joy Hassol, the climate communication veteran who served as a senior science writer on three National Climate Assessments, put it this way in an interview with Yale Climate Connections contributor Daisy Simmons: โ€œThis is the fight of our lives, and itโ€™s a multigenerational task. We need whatโ€™s been called โ€˜cathedral thinking.โ€™ That is, the people who started working on that stone foundation, they never saw the thing finished. It took generations to get these major works done. This is that kind of problem. And we have to all do our part. The more I act, the better I feel, because I know Iโ€™m part of the solution.โ€

Actions we take now will yield enormous future benefits, and the faster we undertake transformative actions to adapt to the new climate reality, the less suffering will occur. The Global Commission on Adaptationย saysย that โ€œevery $1 invested in adaptation could yield up to $10 in net economic benefits, depending on the activity.โ€ We should work to build our cathedral of the future with the thought that each action we take now will multiply by a factor of 10 in importance in the future.

But some of the hardest work has been done: The cornerstone of this cathedral of the future has already been laid. The clean energy revolution is here and has progressed far more rapidly than I had dared hope. Passage of the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and 2023 Inflation Reduction Act has been instrumental in getting this cornerstone laid. Solar energy is now the cheapest source of energy in world history, and the costs of wind power and battery technology have also plummeted. Two recent reports were optimistic that climate-warming carbon dioxide emissions had finally peaked in 2023, and GDP growth has decoupled from carbon dioxide emissions in recent years, giving hope that economic growth can still occur without making the planet hotter.

At its heart, the root of the climate crisis is humanityโ€™s spiritual inharmoniousness: We overvalue the pursuit of material wealth and we worship billionaires but undervalue growing more connected to our spiritual selves and acting to preserve and appreciate the natural systems that sustain us. Making yourself more peaceful and loving through quiet spiritual pursuits and time spent in nature will help counteract the anxiety and fear sparked by the climate crisis. But in tandem with your increased peace must come a righteous anger to โ€œthrow the money changers out of the templeโ€ and topple the might of the fossil fuel industry and its enablers.

So put your shoulder to an oar! Help us power the boat of civilization through the rapids of climate change. All of humanity shares the same boat, and you have the opportunity to make your own unique and valuable contribution to the effort.

Figure 7. A portion of a 360-degree rainbow seen from a NOAA P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft as it flew through a rain shower near South Florida in 1988. (Image credit: Jeff Masters)

As promised, here is the rainbow at the end. Itโ€™s the intro image from my first and last Weather Underground blog posts, โ€œThe 360-degree Rainbow,โ€ and โ€œSo long, wunderground!โ€ My unique and valuable contribution to building our new cathedral has not yet reached the end of the rainbow, for a rainbow has no end โ€” it is a full circle. One just has to fly high in a rainstorm where the sun is shining to see it.

I will continue to make my voice heard as long as climate science-denying politicians, corporations, media pundits, and wealthy individuals continue to row the boat of civilization into the rocks of climate-change catastrophe. I encourage those of you who have learned about extreme weather and climate change from me to do the same. To get started, learn from one of the best communicators in the business, climate scientist Katherine Hayhoe:

Recommended reading:

Susan Joy Hassol (@ClimateComms) and Bob Henson (@bhensonweather) provided helpful edits for this post.

Article: Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks — Nature Communications #ActOnClimate

a Schematic fold-bifurcation diagram of a model tipping element with global mean temperature (GMT) as a forcing parameter and two stable states separated by the unstable manifold. The red arrows indicate the feedback direction of the entire system if a forcing occurs. This means, that if the system is pushed across the unstable manifold, it will move towards the opposite stable equilibrium state. b Illustrative time-evolution of one sample model run of each tipping element: Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS), West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), Amazon Rainforest (AMAZ), including the threshold for state evaluation (dashed grey line). Credit: Nature Communications

Click the link to access the article on the Nature Communications website (Tessa Mรถller,ย Annika Ernest Hรถgner,ย Carl-Friedrich Schleussner,ย Samuel Bien,ย Niklas H. Kitzmann,ย Robin D. Lamboll,ย Joeri Rogelj,ย Jonathan F. Donges,ย Johan Rockstrรถmย &ย Nico Wunderling). Here’s the abstract:

August 1, 2024

Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5โ€‰ยฐC is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10โ€“90% range: 23โ€“71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5โ€‰ยฐC. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1โ€‰ยฐC of overshoot above 1.5โ€‰ยฐC and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0โ€‰ยฐC. Achieving and maintaining at least netย zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the longย term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability. [ed. emphasis mine]

#FossilFuels made the Olympics 5 degrees hotter: So did deforestation and animal agriculture — Heated #ActOnClimate

Opening ceremony Summer Olympics Paris 2024. Photo credit: Olympics.com

Click the link to read the article on the Heated website (Emily Atkin). Here’s an excerpt:

August 1, 2024

I havenโ€™t had time to analyze media coverage of the 2024 Olympic Games. So Iโ€™m not sure how many stories aboutย Tuesdayโ€™s dangerous heat in Parisย mentioned thatย the high temperatures were fueled by climate change. But just in case you didnโ€™t see, hereโ€™s an important stat:ย Fossil fuels, deforestation, and animal agriculture made outdoor temperatures at Tuesdayโ€™s Olympics about 5.2ยฐF degrees hotter than they would have normally been.

The reason we know this is because of incredible recent advancements inย attribution science, which uses observational data and statistical methods to figure out how likely and severe an extreme weather event would be today, compared to how it would have played out in a world un-warmed by human activities. Specifically, the 5.2ยฐF number comes fromย a โ€œsuper rapid analysisโ€ published Wednesdayย by World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international group dedicated to conducting and communicating attribution science. It foundย the heat wave thatโ€™s plagued France and other Mediterranean countries this July would have been anywhere from 4.5ยฐF (2.5ยฐC) to 5.9ยฐF (3.3ยฐC) cooler in a pre-climate-changed world.ย The average of that range is 5.2ยฐF.

And the idea that fossil fuels, deforestation, and animal agriculture caused this 5.2ยฐF increase comes from basic climate science. Approximately 75 percent of current anthropogenic CO2 emissions come from fossil fuels, and anywhere from 13 to 20 percent come from agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU), according to the IPCC. In the AFOLU category, 45 percent of emissions come from deforestation, and 41 percent of global deforestation comes from beef production.

I spell all this out because I want to make it clear: If we want the summer Olympics to continue to exist and be safe for athletes, we need to rapidly reduce emissions from these sectors. Iโ€™ve said it before, but Iโ€™ll say it again: Itโ€™s not enough to say that โ€œclimate changeโ€ is screwing with the things we love. Communicators have to also be clear about why climate change is happening, so itโ€™s equally clear what must be done.

The American Westโ€™s last quarter-century ranks as the driest in 1,200 years, research shows — The Los Angeles Times #ActOnClimate

NASA satellite images show water decline in Lake Mead from 2000, at left, to 2022. Credit: Colorado State University

Click the link to read the article on The Los Angeles Times website (Ian James). Here’s an excerpt:

July 30, 2024

Three years ago, climate researchers shocked drought-weary Californians when they revealed that the American West was experiencing its driest 22-year period in 1,200 years, and that this severeย megadroughtย was being intensified by global warming. Now, a UCLA climate scientist has reexamined the data and found that, even after two wet winters, the last 25 years are still likely the driest quarter-century since the year 800.

โ€The dryness still wins out over the wetness, big time,โ€ said UCLA professor Park Williams.

The latest climate data show that the years since 2000 in western North America โ€” from Montana to California to northern Mexico โ€” have been slightly drier on average than a similar megadrought in the late 1500s. Williams shared his findings with the Los Angeles Times, providing an update to his widely cited 2022ย study, which he co-authored with scientists at Columbia Universityโ€™s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The new findings reveal that even the unusually wet conditions that drenched the West since the start of 2023 pale in comparison to the long stretch of mostly dry years over the previous 23 years. And that dryness hasnโ€™t been driven by natural cycles alone. Williams and his colleagues have estimated that a significant portion of the droughtโ€™s severity โ€” roughly 40% โ€” is attributable to warming driven by the burning of fossil fuels and rising levels of greenhouse gases. The warming that has occurred in the region, an increase of more than 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit since recordkeeping began more than a century ago, has intensified the dry conditions, making the latest megadrought significantly more severe than it would be without climate change.

But are we still in a megadrought? How will we know when the megadrought is finally over? Williams said those questions will take some time to answer, and the conclusions will only become clear in hindsight.

โ€œBased on the definition of megadrought that weโ€™ve been using, which involves looking at the past 10 years to see if dry or wet conditions prevailed, we can only see the termination of a megadrought in hindsight,โ€ Williams said. โ€œIf the next few years are on average wet, that will mark the end of the megadrought. If theyโ€™re dry, the megadrought will continue.โ€

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2) in parts per million (ppm) for the past 800,000 years. On the geologic time scale, the increase to todayโ€™s levels (orange dashed line) looks virtually instantaneous. Graph by NOAA Climate.gov based on data from Lรผthi et al., 2008, via the NOAA NCEI Paleoclimatology Program.

The water nexus in #Coloradoโ€™s energy transition — Allen Best (@BigPivots) #YampaRiver #GreenRiver #ColoradoRiver #COriver #aridification #SouthPlatteRiver #ArkansasRiver #ActOnClimate

Coal fired plant near Hayden with the Yampa River 2015. Photo credit: Ken Nuebecker

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

August 17, 2024

Will there be a water bonus as we close coal plants? In the short term, yes. Itโ€™s harder to say in the long term. Hereโ€™s why.

Use it or lose it. Thatโ€™s a basic premise of Colorado water law. Those with water rights must put the water to beneficial use or risk losing the rights to somebody who can. Itโ€™s fundamentally anti-speculative.
But Colorado legislators this year created a major exception for two electric utilities that draw water from the Yampa River for coal-burning power plants. They did so through Senate Bill 24-197, which Gov. Jared Polis signed into law in Steamboat Springs in late May.

The two utilities, Xcel Energy and Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, plan to retire the five coal-burning units โ€” two at Hayden and three at Craig โ€” they operate in the Yampa River Basin by late 2028. These units represent Coloradoโ€™s largest concentration of coal plants, 1,874 megawatts of generating capacity altogether. Thatโ€™s 40% of Coloradoโ€™s total coal-fired electrical generation. Together, they use some 19,000 acre-feet of water each year.

What will become of those water rights when the turbines cease to spin? And what will replace that power? The short answer is that the utilities donโ€™t know. Thatโ€™s the point of the legislation. It gives the utilities until 2050 to figure out their future.

While the legislation is unique to the Yampa Valley, questions of future water use echo across Colorado as its coal plants โ€” two units at Pueblo, one near Colorado Springs, one north of Fort Collins, and one at Brush โ€” all will close or be converted to natural gas by the end of 2030.

This story was originally published in the July 2024 issue of Headwaters Magazine. Photo above of the Hayden Generating Station and the Yampa River was taken by Ken Neubecker in spring 2015. All other photos by Allen Best unless otherwise noted.

Both Xcel and Tri-State expect that at least 70% of the electricity they deliver in 2030 will come from wind and solar. The final stretch to 100%? Thatโ€™s the hard question facing utilities across Colorado โ€” and the nation and world.

Natural gas is expected to play a continued role as backup to the intermittency of renewables. Moving completely beyond fossil fuels? No one technology or even a suite of technologies has yet emerged as cost-effective. At least some of the technologies that Xcel and Tri-State are looking at involve water.

Fossil fuel plants use less than 1% of all of Coloradoโ€™s water. Yet in a state with virtually no raw water resources left to develop, even relatively small uses have gained attention. Coloradoโ€™s power future will have implications for its communities and their water, but how exactly that will look remains unknown.

Emissions Goals

The year 2019 was pivotal in Coloradoโ€™s energy transition. State lawmakers adopted legislation that specified a 50% economy-wide reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and 100% by 2050. A decade before, that bill would have been laughed out of the Colorado Capitol. Even in 2019, some thought it unrealistic. But proponents had the votes, and a governor who had run on a platform of renewable energy.

Something approaching consensus had been achieved regarding the risks posed by climate change. Costs of renewables had plummeted during the prior decade, 70% for wind and 89% for solar, according to the 2019 report by Lazard, a financial analyst. Utilities had learned how to integrate high levels of renewables into their power supplies without imperiling reliability. Lithium-ion batteries that can store up to four hours of energy were also dropping in price.

Colorado lawmakers have adopted dozens of laws since 2019 intended to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Tied at the legislative hip to the targets adopted in 2019 were mandates to Coloradoโ€™s two investor-owned electric utilities, Xcel Energy and Black Hills Energy. By 2030 they must reduce emissions by at least 80% compared to 2005 levels. Both aim to do even better.

Xcel, the largest electrical utility in Colorado, was already pivoting. In 2017, it received bids from wind and solar developers in response to an all-sources solicitation that caused jaws across the nation to drop. In December 2018 shortly after the election of Gov. Polis, Xcel officials gathered in Denver to boldly declare plans to reduce emissions by 80% by 2030. Platte River Power Authority, the provider for Fort Collins and three other cities in the northern Front Range, later that month adopted a highly conditioned 100% goal. In January 2020, Tri-State announced its plans to close coal plants and accelerate its shift to renewables โ€” it plans to reduce emissions by 89% by 2030. In December 2021, Holy Cross Energy, the electrical cooperative serving the Vail and Aspen areas, adopted a 100% goal for 2030. It expects to get to 91% by 2025.

Colorado Springs Utilities burned the last coal at the Martin Drake power plant along Fountain Creek in August 2022. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Coloradoโ€™s emissions-reduction goals are economy wide, not just for power production. In practice, this means replacing technologies in transportation, buildings and other sectors that produce greenhouse gas emissions with low- or no-emissions energy sources. As coal plants have closed, transportation has become the highest-emitting sector. Colorado had 126,000 registered electric vehicles and hybrids as of June but hopes to have 940,000 registered by 2030. Buildings pose a greater challenge because most of us donโ€™t replace houses the way we do cars or cell phones. Solutions vary, but many involve increased use of electricity instead of natural gas.

A final twist that has some bearing on water is Coloradoโ€™s goal of a โ€œjust transition.โ€ House Bill 19-1314 declared that coal-sector workers and communities were not to be cast aside. Efforts would be made to keep them economically and culturally whole.

Possible Water Dividends

The Cherokee Generating Station north of downtown Denver is now a natural gas-fired power plant.

Where does this leave water? Thatโ€™s unclear and, as the 2024 legislation regarding the Yampa Valley spelled out, it is likely to remain unclear for some time. The law prohibits the Division 6 water judge โ€” for the Yampa, White and North Platte river basins โ€” from considering the decrease in use or nonuse of a water right owned by an electric utility in the Yampa Valley.

In other words, they can sit on these water rights through 2050 while they try to figure what technologies will emerge as cost competitive. Xcel Energy and Tri-State will not lose their water rights simply because theyโ€™re not using them during this time as would, at least theoretically, be the case with other water users in Colorado.

Conversion of the Cherokee power plant north of downtown Denver from coal to natural gas provides one case study of how energy shifts can affect water resources. Xcel converted the plant to natural gas between 2010 and 2015. Its capacity is now 928 megawatts.

Richard Belt, a water resources consultant for Xcel, says that when Cherokee still burned coal, it used 7,000 to 8,000 acre-feet of water per year; since 2017, when natural gas replaced coal, it uses 3,000 to 3,500 acre-feet per year.

Does that saved water now flow downstream to farmers in northeastern Colorado?

โ€œIf the wind is really blowing, there could be some water heading downstream on certain days,โ€ Belt answered. In other words, thereโ€™s so much renewable energy in the grid that production from the gas plant at times is not needed. A more concrete way to look at this conversion, Belt says, is to step back and look at Xcelโ€™s water use more broadly across its system. It also has the Rocky Mountain Energy Center, a 685-megawatt combined-cycle natural gas plant along Interstate 76 near Keenesburg that it bought in 2009 and began operating in 2012. With the plant came a water contract from Aurora Water.

Xcel has been renegotiating that contract, which it projects will be effective in early 2025. The new contract will allow Xcel to take water saved at Cherokee and instead use it at the Rocky Mountain Energy Center. That will allow it to use 2,000 acre-feet less of the water it has been leasing from Aurora each year. Belt says it will save Xcel customers around $1 million a year in water costs.

โ€œAnother way to look at this dividend is that weโ€™re going to hand [Aurora] two-thirds of this contract volume, around 2,000 acre-feet a year, and they can use that water within their system,โ€ Belt explains.

Other coal-burning power plants have also closed in recent years, with water dividends of their own. One small coal plant in southwestern Colorado at Nucla, operated by Tri-State, was closed in 2019. In 2022, Xcel shut down one of its three coal units at the Comanche Generating Station in Pueblo.

Colorado Springs Utilities stopped burning coal at its Martin Drake coal-fired plant in 2021, which is located near the cityโ€™s center, and replaced it with natural gas. It used some 2,000 acre-feet of water per year in the early 2000s, and was down to only 14 acre-feet per year in 2023. Colorado Springs Utilities โ€” a provider of both electricity and water โ€” delivers 70,000 to 75,000 acre-feet of water annually to its customers. Whatever water savings were achieved in that transition will be folded into the broader operations. The cityโ€™s remaining coal plant, Ray Nixon, burns both coal and natural gas. The city delivers about 2,000 acre-feet per year to Nixon to augment groundwater use there.

The 280-megawatt Rawhide coal-fired power plant north of Fort Collins is to be shut down by 2030. Platte River Power Authority, which owns and operates the plant, had not yet chosen a replacement power source as of June 2024. Platte River delivers electricity to Estes Park, Fort Collins, Longmont and Loveland.

The Cherokee plant along the South Platte River north of downtown Denver uses significantly less water since tis conversion from coal to natural gas. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

That leaves just the 505-megawatt Pawnee among Coloradoโ€™s existing coal plants. The plant near Brush is to be retrofitted to burn natural gas by 2026. The water dividend? Xcel is trying to keep its options open.

The one commonality among all the possible power-generating technologies that Xcel may use to achieve its goal of emissions-free energy by 2050 is that, with the exception of some battery technologies, they all require water, says Belt. And that, he says, means it would be unwise to relinquish water without first making decisions about the future.

Thatโ€™s why this yearโ€™s bill was needed. Coloradoโ€™s two biggest electrical providers, Xcel and Tri-State, both with coal plants retiring in the Yampa Valley, have questions unanswered.

The Future of Energy

Strontia Springs Dam and Reservoir, located on the South Platte River within Waterton Canyon. It is ranked #32 out of 45 hydroelectric power plants in Colorado in terms of total annual net electricity generation. Photo by Milehightraveler/iStock

What comes next? Obviously, lots more wind and solar. Lots. The graph of projected solar power in Colorado through this decade looks like the Great Plains rising up to Longs Peak. Construction of Xcelโ€™s Colorado Power Pathway, a 450-mile transmission line looping around the Eastern Plains, will expedite renewables coming online. Tri-State is also constructing new transmission lines in eastern Colorado. The plains landscape, San Luis Valley, and other locations could look very different by the end of the decade.

Very little water is needed for renewables, at least once the towers and panels are put into place.

You may well point out that the sun goes down, and the wind doesnโ€™t always blow. Storage is one holy grail in this energy transition. Lithium-ion batteries can store energy for four hours. That works very effectively until it doesnโ€™t. Needed are new cost-effective technologies or far more application of known technologies.

One possible storage method, called iron-rust, will likely be tested at Pueblo in 2025 by a collaboration between Xcel and Form Energy, a company that proclaims it will transform the grid. It could provide 100 hours of storage. Tri-Stateโ€™s electric resource plan identifies the same technology.

Granby Dam was retrofitted at a cost of $5.1 million to produce hydroelectricity effective May 2016. It produces enough electricity for about 570 homes. Photo/Northern Water

Other potential storage technologies involve water. Pumped-storage hydropower is an old and proven technology. It requires vertical differences in elevation, and Colorado has that. In practice, finding the right spots for the two reservoirs, higher and lower, is difficult.

Xcel Energyโ€™s Cabin Creek project between Georgetown and Guanella Pass began electrical production in 1967. In this closed-loop system, water from the higher reservoir is released through a three-quarter-mile tunnel to the second reservoir 1,192 feet lower in elevation. This generates a maximum 324 megawatts to help meet peak demands or to provide power when itโ€™s dark or the wind stops blowing. When electricity is more freely available, the water can be pumped back to the higher reservoir. Very little water is lost.

Near Leadville, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation has a pumped-storage hydropower project at Twin Lakes, the Mt. Elbert Power Plant, with a more modest elevation difference. The plant can generate up to 200 megawatts of electricity.

Graphic credit: Joan Carstensen

A private developer with something similar in mind has reported reaching agreements with private landowners along the Yampa River between Hayden and Craig. With private landowners, the approval process would be far easier than if this were located on federal lands. Cost is estimated at $1.5 billion.

Belt points out that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has streamlined the permitting process for pumped-storage hydro but that technology remains expensive and projects will take probably 10 to 12 years to develop if everything goes well.

โ€œDuring that 10 to 12 years, does something new come along? And if youโ€™re committed to pumped storage, then you canโ€™t pivot to this new thing without a financial impact,โ€ he says, explaining a hesitancy around pumped storage.

Green hydrogen is another leading candidate in the Yampa Valley and elsewhere. It uses electrolysis to separate the hydrogen and oxygen in water. Renewable energy can be used to fuel the electrolysis. Thatโ€™s why it is called green hydrogen as distinct from blue hydrogen, which uses natural gas as a catalyst. A news story in 2023 called it a โ€œdistant proposition.โ€ Costs remain high but are falling. Tax incentives seek to spur that innovation.

Gov. Polisโ€™ administration remains optimistic about hydrogen. It participated in a proposal for federal funding that would have created underground hydrogen storage near Brush. That proposal was rejected, but Will Toor, the chief executive of the Colorado Energy Office, has made it clear that green hydrogen and other emerging technologies remain on the table. Xcel says the same thing. โ€œItโ€™s not something we are going to give up on quite yet,โ€ says Belt. The water savings from the conversion of coal to natural gas could possibly play into those plans.

Gov. Jared Polis stopped by the Good Vibes River Gear in Craig in March 2020 prior to attending a just transition workshop. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Polis is bullish on geothermal, both kinds. The easier geothermal uses the relatively constant 55 degree temperatures found 8 to 10 feet below ground to heat and cool buildings. The Colorado Capitol has geothermal heating, but the most famous example is Colorado Mesa University, where geothermal heats and cools about 80% of the campus. This technology may come on strong in Colorado, especially in new construction.

Can heat found at greater depths, say 10,000 feet or from particularly hot spots near the surface, be mined to produce electricity? California generates 10.1% from enhanced geothermal, Nevada 5.1%, and Utah 1.5%. Colorado generates zero. At a June conference, Polis said he thought geothermal could produce 4% to even 8% of the stateโ€™s electricity by 2040. Geothermal for electric production would require modest water resources.

Nuclear? Those plants, like coal, require water. Many smart people believe it may be the only way that civilization can reduce emissions as rapidly as climate scientists say is necessary to avoid catastrophic repercussions. Others see it as a way to accomplish just transition as coal plants retire.

Costs of traditional nuclear remain daunting. Critics point to projects in other states. In Georgia, for example, a pair of reactors called Vogtle have been completed but seven years late and at a cost of $35 billion, more than double the projectโ€™s initially estimated $14 billion price tag. The two reactors have a combined generating capacity of 2,430 megawatts.

New reactor designs may lower costs. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 2023 certified design of a small-modular reactor by NuScale. It was heralded as a breakthrough, but NuScale cancelled a contract later that year for a plant in Idaho, citing escalating costs.

With a sodium fast reactor, integrated energy storage and flexible power production, the Natrium technology offers carbon-free energy at a competitive cost and is ready to integrate seamlessly into electric grids with high levels of renewables. Graphic credit: http://NatriumPower.com

Greater optimism has buoyed plans in Wyoming by the Bill Gates-backed TerraPower for a 345-megawatt nuclear plant near the site of a coal plant at Kemmerer. It has several innovations, including molten salt for energy storage and a design that allows more flexible generation, creating a better fit with renewables. Ground was broken in June for one building. An application for the design is pending with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Gates has invested $1 billion and expects to invest many billions more in what he estimates will be a $10 billion final cost. He also hopes to see about 100 similar plants and reduced costs. Other companies with still other designs and ideas say they can also reduce costs. All these lower-cost nuclear solutions exist in models, not on the ground. Uranium supply remains problematic, at least for now, but more difficult yet is the question of radioactive waste disposal.

Into The Future

The potential for nuclear is balled up in the issue of just transition. Legislators in 2019 said that coal communities would not be left on their own to figure out their futures. What this means in practice remains fuzzy.

Consider Pueblo. Xcel Energy on August 1 is scheduled to submit to the Colorado Public Utilities Commission what is being called the Pueblo Just Transition Electric Resource Plan. Through that plan, Xcel must determine to what extent it can, through new generating sources, leave Pueblo economically whole after it closes the coal plants. Existing jobs will be lost, although others in post-closure remediation of the site will be gained. What, then, constitutes a just transition for Pueblo?

What will Xcel propose in October for Pueblo as it makes plans for the retired of the last of the Comanche coal-burning units in 2030? Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

A task force assembled by Xcel Energy in January delivered its conclusions after nearly a year of study: โ€œOf all of the technologies that we studied, only advanced nuclear generation will make Pueblo whole and also provide a path to prosperity,โ€ concluded the task force. They advised that a natural gas plant with carbon capture would be a distinctly secondary choice.

What will happen with the water in Pueblo? Xcel Energy has a take-or-pay water contract with Pueblo Water for 12,783 acre-feet per year for the Comanche Generating Station. It must pay for the water even if it does not take it. Pueblo Water has a similar take-or-pay contract for 1,000 acre-feet annually for the 440-megawatt natural gas plant operated by Black Hills Energy near the Pueblo airport.

The draw of these water leases from the Arkansas River isnโ€™t that notable, says Chris Woodka, president of the Pueblo Water board, even in what he describes as a โ€œsmall year,โ€ with low flows in the river. These water leases constitute some 5% or less of the riverโ€™s water, Woodka says. Xcel could tap that same lease for whatever it plans at Pueblo. And if it has no use? โ€œWe havenโ€™t had many conversations around what we would do if that lease goes away, because it is so far out in the future.โ€

Xcel and Tri-State both own considerable water rights in the lower Arkansas Valley, near Las Animas and Lamar. Neither utility has shared plans for using the water, as the ideas of coal or nuclear power plants that initially inspired the water purchases never moved forward. Water in both cases has been leased since its acquisition to Arkansas Basin agricultural producers in order to maintain an ongoing beneficial use.

Yampa River. Photo credit: Yampa River Integrated Water Management Plan website

Why donโ€™t Tri-State and Xcel lease their water in the Yampa River as they do in the Arkansas? Jackie Brown, the senior water and natural resources advisor for Tri-State, explains that there is no demand for additional agricultural water in the Yampa Basin. About 99% of all lands capable of supporting irrigated agriculture already get water. This is almost exclusively for animal forage. This is a valley of hay.

However, the Yampa River itself needs more water. The lower portion in recent years has routinely suffered from low flows during the rising heat of summer. Some summers, flows at Deerlodge, near the entrance to Dinosaur National Monument, have drooped to 20 cubic feet per second. Even in Steamboat, upstream from the power plants, fishing and other forms of recreation, such as tubing, have at times been restricted.

One question asked in drafting the legislation this year was whether to seek protection with a temporary instream flow right for some of the 45 cfs that Tri-State and Xcel together use at the plants at Craig and Hayden. The intent would have been to protect the delivery of some portion of that water to Dinosaur National Monument through 2050. That idea met resistance from stakeholders.

Instead, a do-nothing approach was adopted. Those framing the bill expect that most of the time, most of the water will flow downstream to Dinosaur anyway. In most years, no demands are placed on the river from November through the end of June. The challenge comes from July through October. The amount of water, used formerly by coal plants, that reaches Dinosaur will depend upon conditions at any particular time. Have the soils been drying out? Has the summer monsoon arrived?

The Yampa River at Deerlodge Park July 24, 2021 downstream from the confluence with the Little Snake River. There was a ditch running in Maybell above this location. Irrigated hay looked good. Dryland hay not so much.

โ€œEven if youโ€™re adding even half of that [45 cfs], it is a big deal,โ€ says Brown. โ€œIf you can double the flow of a river when itโ€™s in dire circumstances itโ€™s a big deal.โ€

A study conducted by the Colorado River Water Conservation District several years ago examined how much water released from Elkhead Reservoir, located near Hayden, would reach Dinosaur. The result: 88% to 90% did.

Brown says river managers will be closely studying whether the extra water can assist with recovery of endangered fish species and other issues. โ€œThereโ€™s a lot of learning to be done. My key takeaway is that thatโ€™s really going to contribute to the volume of knowledge that we have and the future management decisions that are made.โ€

A larger takeaway about this new law is that it gives Coloradoโ€™s two biggest electrical providers time. Xcel and Tri-State donโ€™t know all the answers as we stretch to eradicate emissions from our energy by mid-century. Many balls are in the air, some interconnected, each representing a technology that may be useful or necessary to complement the enormous potential of wind and solar generation now being created. All of these new technologies will require water. Some water in the conversion from coal is being saved now, but itโ€™s possible it will be needed in the future.

No wonder Xcelโ€™s Belt says its โ€œimprudent in a very water-constrained region to let go of a water asset that you may not get back, until you know how some of these balls are going to land.โ€

#Coal continues its precipitous decline — Writers on the Range #ActOnClimate

Click the link to read the article on the Writers on the Range website (Peter Gartrell):

August 5, 2024

The coal mining industry reacted with outrage when the Bureau of Land Management recently announced plans to stop issuing new coal leases on the eastern plains of Wyoming and Montana.

From its headquarters in Washington, D.C., the National Mining Association predicted โ€œa severe economic blow to mining states and communities,โ€ while the industryโ€™s political allies likened the move to declaring โ€œwarโ€ on coal communities.

The truth is that coal has been steadily falling from its past dominance as energy king for nearly two decades. Domestic coal consumption dropped to 512 million tons in 2022, down 55 percent since its 2007 peak.

With the downward trajectory expected to continue, the Biden administrationโ€™s decision to end coal leasing in the Powder River Basinโ€”the nationโ€™s largest coal-producing regionโ€”reflects clear market trends. And far from killing coal, the administrationโ€™s plan allows mining to continue as the market transitions. 

Billions of tons of previously leased federal coal remain available for mining from 270 tracts across the nation, which combined cover an area larger than Rocky Mountain National Park. One Montana mine has enough coal to keep operating until 2060. Taken together, economic effects related to ending new coal leasing in the Powder River Basin may not be felt until the 2040s and beyond.

Coal companies are well aware that U.S. energy markets have rapidly changed, a fact they soberly tell investors: โ€œOver the last few years, customers have shifted to long-term supply agreements with shorter durations, driven by the reduced utilization of (coal) plants and plant retirements, fluidity of natural gas pricing and the increased use of renewable energy sources,โ€ Wyomingโ€™s largest coal producer, Peabody Energy, disclosed in its 2023 financial filing.

Even with declining markets, the Biden administration did not come to the decision on its own. Arguing that BLMโ€™s past reviews of coalโ€™s contributions to climate change were inadequate, a coalition of environmental groups sued the government and won. That forced the agency to revisit whether more coal leasing was warranted.

โ€œFor decades, mining has affected public health, our local land, air, and water, and the global climate,โ€ said Lynne Huskinson, a retired coal miner. Sheโ€™s a member of the Powder River Basin Resource Council, a Wyoming landownersโ€™ group that was among the plaintiffs.

Now, she said, โ€œwe look forward to BLM working with state and local partners to ensure a just economic transition for the Powder River Basin as we move toward a clean energy future.โ€

Huskinson lives in Gillette, Wyoming, where a dozen highly mechanized strip mines sprawl across the grasslands of the Powder River Basin. The Wyoming mines alone produce 40 percent of U.S. coal while employing less than 10 percent of the nationโ€™s 44,000 coal workers.

The Basinโ€™s mines have leased 8 billion tons of federal coal since the 1990s, a cheap and plentiful supply for the industry. The leasing process allows companies to nominate desired tracts, and then bid with little or no competition. Winning bidders often pay less than $1 a ton for coal, plus a nominal annual rent and a royalty after final sale.

There is little question that leasing helped launch and sustain the regionโ€™s energy boom. But in his 2022 decision, Judge Brian Morris of the Federal District Court of Montana cast his eye toward the future. Morris wrote that federal law required BLM to consider โ€œlong-term needs of future generationsโ€ that included โ€œrecreation, range, timber, minerals, watershed, wildlife and fish, and natural scenic, scientific, and historical values.โ€

The judge also gave the federal agency an out: โ€œCoal mining represents a potentially allowable use of public lands, but BLM is not required to lease public lands.โ€

Morrisโ€™ words cleared the way for BLM to stop leasing, a decision that dovetails with a Colorado College poll that found most residents in eight Rocky Mountain statesโ€”including Wyoming and Montanaโ€”want Congress to prioritize conservation over energy development on public lands.

Peter Gartrell

The legal wrangling will likely continue, with the BLM reviewing protests from the coal industry and its political allies that lay the groundwork for more lawsuits. For now, though, it seems the Biden administrationโ€™s decision to keep coal in the ground not only follows the market and the law, but public opinion, too.

Peter Gartrell is a contributor to Writers on the Range, writersontherange.org, an independent nonprofit dedicated to spurring lively conversation about the West. He is a consultant in Washington, D.C., and covered coal leasing issues as a journalist and congressional staffer.

A truck-and-shovel crew removes overburden at the North Antelope Rochelle mine in Wyomingโ€™s Powder River Basin in January 2020, as a coal shovel works below. (Alan Nash/WyoFile)

Project 2025โ€™s extreme vision for the West: The demolition of public lands, water and wildlife protections are part of conservativesโ€™ plan for a second Trump term — @HighCountryNews

An aerial view of Assignation Ridge in the Thompson Divide area of Colorado. Project 2025 calls to restore mining claims and oil and gas leases in the Thompson Divide withdrawal area. (Courtesy of EcoFlight)

Click the link to read the article on the HIgh Country News website (Michelle Nijhuisย andย Erin X. Wong:

If Donald Trump is re-elected president in November, a coalition of more than 50 right-wing organizations known as Project 2025 will be ready with a plug-and-play plan for him to follow, starting with a database of potential administration appointees carefully vetted by coalition members; an online โ€œPresidential Administration Academyโ€ run by coalition members to school new appointees; and a 920-page policy platform called Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise.

Written by former members of the Trump administration and other conservative leaders, Mandate for Leadership exhorts its readers to โ€œgo to work on Day One to deconstruct the Administrative state.โ€ Among many other measures, it calls for radical reductions in the federal workforce and in federal environmental protections, and for advancing a โ€œTrump-era Energy Dominance Agenda.โ€

The full text of Mandate for Leadership is below, preceded by an agency-by-agency overview of the proposals that could have the greatest impact on Western land, water and wildlife โ€” as well as on Westerners themselves.

DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR (p. 517)

The Project 2025 recommendations for the Department of the Interior were primarily authored by attorney William Perry Pendley, a vociferous opponent of protections for public lands and wildlife. As acting director of the Bureau of Land Management during the Trump administration, he transformed the agency into what one high-level employee described as a โ€œa ghost ship,โ€ in which โ€œsuspicion,โ€ โ€œfearโ€ and โ€œlow moraleโ€ abounded.

Energy Policy

Pendley notes that the energy section was written โ€œin its entiretyโ€ by Kathleen Sgamma of theย Western Energy Alliance, an oil and gas industry group; Dan Kish of theย Institute for Energy Research, a think tank long skeptical of human-caused climate change; and Katie Tubb of The Heritage Foundation. They recommend reviving the โ€œTrump-era Energy Dominance Agendaโ€ by:ย 

  • reinstating a dozen industry-friendly orders issued by the Trump administrationโ€™s secretaries of the Interior (p. 522);
  • expanding oil and gas lease sales onshore and offshore (p. 522);
  • opening the large portions of Alaska, including theย Alaska Coastal Plainย and most of theย National Petroleum Reserve, to oil and gas exploration and development (pp. 523, 524);
  • halting theย ongoing review of the federal coal-leasing programย and working โ€œwith the congressional delegations and governors of Wyoming and Montana to restart the program immediatelyโ€ (p. 523);
  • restoringย mining claims and oil and gas leasesย in theย Thompson Divide of the White River National Forest in Coloradoย and the 10-mile buffer around Chaco Cultural Historic National Park in New Mexico. (p. 523);
  • and expanding theย Willow Project, a ConocoPhillips oil-drilling operation on Alaskaโ€™s North Slope (p. 530).
William Perry Pendley. By Bureau of Land Management

Agency Operations

The projectโ€™s organizers plan to upend federal land-management agency operations by:

Land Conservation

The project aims to undo large landscape protections by:

The Cascade-Siskiyou National Monument was expanded via proclamation from President Obama in 2017, making the new monument approximately 112,000 acres. Bob Wick/Bureau of Land Management

Wildlife 

Pendley expresses particular hostility toward the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, whose work he described as โ€œthe product of โ€˜species cartelsโ€™ afflicted with group-think, confirmation bias, and a common desire to preserve the prestige, power, and appropriations of the agency that pays or employs them.โ€ He recommends:

  • delisting the grizzly bearย in the Greater Yellowstone and Northern Continental Divide Ecosystems (p. 534);
  • delisting the gray wolfย in the continental U.S. (p. 534);
  • putting states in charge of managing theย greater sage-grouse;
  • ending the reintroduction of โ€œexperimental populationsโ€ outside a speciesโ€™ historic range (p. 534);
  • abolishing the Biological Resources Division of the U.S. Geological Survey โ€” which will be difficult to do, as it no longer exists as such and is now part of theย National Park Service(p. 534);
  • and reinstating Trump-era limitations on theย Endangered Species Actย and theย Migratory Bird Treaty Actย (p. 524).ย 

DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (p. 289)

The free-market advocate behind Project 2025โ€™s section on the USDA has long railed against the subsidies and food stamp programs administered by the agency. As a fellow at The Heritage Foundation, Daren Bakst penned a lengthy report, Farms and Free Enterprise, that objects to many aspects of the farm bill, which funds annual food assistance and rural development programs. His vision, documented in the report, is present throughout Project 2025โ€™s proposed agency overhaul.

Agency Organization

Project 2025 seeks to limit regulation in favor of market forces by:

  • reducing annual agency spending, including subsidy rates for crop insurance andย additional programsย that support farmers for lost crops (p. 296);ย 
  • removingย protections for wetlands and erodible landย that farmers must comply with to participate in USDA programs (p. 304);ย 
  • eliminating theย Conservation Reserve Program, which pays farmers to enrich and protect parts of their land from agricultural production (p. 304);ย 
  • removing climate change and equity from the agencyโ€™s mission (p. 290, 293);ย 
  • and working with Congress to undo theย federal labeling law, which requires consumer products to disclose where they were made and what they contain, as well as encouraging voluntary labeling (p. 307).ย 

Forestry

The project will reduce forests on public lands by:

Logging within the Cougar Park timber sale in Kaibab National Forest in 2018. The timber project was part of an initiative intended to treat more than 2.4 million acres of ponderosa pine forest across northern Arizona. Dyan Bone/U.S. Forest Service

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (p. 417) 

Prior to serving as the EPAโ€™s chief of staff during the Trump administration, Mandy Gunasekara was famous for handing Republican Sen. James Inhofe a snowball to disprove the existence of human-caused climate change. At the EPA, she played a key role in the United Statesโ€™ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and in the dismantling of the Obama-era Clean Power Plan. Gunasekaraโ€™s vision for the EPA is characterized by staff layoffs, office closures and the embrace of public comment over peer-reviewed science. 

Agency Organization

The plan will diminish the agencyโ€™s scope of work by:

  • reducing full-time staff and cutting โ€œlow-valueโ€ programs (p. 422);
  • shuttering offices dedicated toย environmental justice and civil rights,ย enforcement and compliance,ย environmental education,ย childrenโ€™s healthย andย international and tribal affairs, and distributing their functions elsewhere (p. 421);ย 
  • eliminating all research that is not explicitly authorized by Congress (p. 436);
  • restructuring scientific advisory boards and engaging the public in ongoing scrutiny of the agencyโ€™s science โ€” potentially opening the door to a wave of pushback against theย international consensusย on climate change (p. 422, 436-438);
  • eliminating the use of catastrophic climate change scenarios in drafting regulation (p. 436);
  • relocating a restructured American Indian Office to the West (p. 440);
  • partially shifting personnel from headquarters to regional offices (p. 430);
  • and striking the regulations, including a program to reduce methane and VOC emissions, that enable the EPA to work with external groups to help enforce laws (p. 424).

Natural Resources

The project would jeopardize clean air and water by:

  • limiting Californiaโ€™sย effort to reduce air pollutionย from vehicles by ensuring that its standards and those of other states avoid any reference to greenhouse gas emissions or climate change (p.426);
  • supporting the reform of the Endangered Species Act to ensure a full cost-benefit analysis during pesticide approval (p. 434-435);ย 
  • repealing some regulations imposed by the Biden administration to limit hydrofluorocarbons, a particularly potent greenhouse gas (p. 425);
  • and undoing the expansion of theย Good Neighbor Program, which requires states to reduce their nitrogen oxide emissions, beyond power plants to include industrial facilities like iron and steel mills (p. 424).

Full text of Project 2025 via Document Cloud

#Climate leaders say Vice President Kamala Harris has โ€˜lit an electric sparkโ€™ with young voters — The Washington Post

Denver School Strike for Climate, September 20, 2019.

Click the link to read the article on The Washington Post website (Maxine Joselow). Here’s an excerpt:

July 30, 2024

More than 350 prominent climate advocates on Tuesday endorsed Vice President Harris for president, a sign that environmental leaders believe hercampaign will energize like-mindedvoters in a way thatย President Bidenย could not. In aย letterย shared first with The Washington Post, big names in the environmental movement โ€” including former U.S. climate envoyย John F. Kerry, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D)โ€” wrote that Harrisย has long prioritized climate actionย and would continue to do so as president.

โ€œWe know that protecting our planet for ourselves and future generations requires the kind of bold leadership that Kamala Harris has demonstrated her whole life,โ€ they wrote. โ€œWe are proud to support her and be in the fight against climate change with her.โ€

Inslee, whose ambitious climate proposals duringย his 2020 presidential campaignย influencedย Bidenโ€™s climate policies, said Harris could help mobilize young voters, a crucial Democratic constituency.ย Polls showย that climate change is a top concern for young people, who are more likely than older generations to faceย raging wildfires,ย rising seasย and stronger storms in their lifetimes.

โ€œHer candidacy instantly lit an electric spark under young people across the country,โ€ Inslee said. โ€œThatโ€™s going to bode well for our fortunes.โ€

Kerry, who left the Biden administration in March, said in an interview that Harris was a โ€œterrific allyโ€ on climate policy. He noted that she was an early advocate of the United States reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century, and she delivered a forceful speech at theย U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubaiย last fall.

The American Westโ€™s last quarter-century ranks as the driest in 1,200 years, research shows — The Los Angeles Times #ActOnClimate

Lake Mead shipwreck. Photo credit: John Fleck

Click the link to read the article on The Los Angeles Times website (Ian James). Here’s an excerpt:

July 30, 2024

Three years ago, climate researchers shocked drought-weary Californians when they revealed that the American West was experiencing its driest 22-year period in 1,200 years, and that this severe megadrought was being intensified by global warming. Now, a UCLA climate scientist has reexamined the data and found that, even after two wet winters, the last 25 years are still likely the driest quarter-century since the year 800.

โ€The dryness still wins out over the wetness, big time,โ€ said UCLA professor Park Williams.

The latest climate data show that the years since 2000 in western North America โ€” from Montana to California to northern Mexico โ€” have been slightly drier on average than a similar megadrought in the late 1500s…Williams shared his findings with the Los Angeles Times, providing an update to his widely cited 2022 study, which he coauthored with scientists at Columbia Universityโ€™s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The new findings reveal that even the unusually wet conditions that drenched the West since the start of 2023 pale in comparison to the long stretch of mostly dry years over the previous 23 years. And that dryness hasnโ€™t been driven by natural cycles alone. Williams and his colleagues have estimated that a significant portion of the droughtโ€™s severity โ€” roughly 40% โ€” is attributable to warming driven by the burning of fossil fuels and rising levels of greenhouse gases. The warming that has occurred in the region, an increase of more than 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit since recordkeeping began more than a century ago, has intensified the dry conditions, making the latest megadrought significantly more severe than it would be without climate change…Scientists and policy experts widely agree that adapting to aridification driven by climate change in the western U.S. will require major changes in how limited water supplies are managed for farms, cities and the environment.

โ€œRegardless of what happens in the next few years, which will be dictated mostly by the randomness of weather, as the atmosphere continues to warm we should expect it to continue to degrade our water supply,โ€ Williams said. โ€œA warmer atmosphere is a thirstier atmosphere, and without a compensating increase in precipitation, which has not occurred, humans and ecosystems will be left with less water.โ€

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (CO2) in parts per million (ppm) for the past 800,000 years. On the geologic time scale, the increase to todayโ€™s levels (orange dashed line) looks virtually instantaneous. Graph by NOAA Climate.gov based on data from Lรผthi et al., 2008, via the NOAA NCEI Paleoclimatology Program.

Extreme heat is breaking global records: Why this isnโ€™t โ€˜just summer,โ€™ and what #ClimateChange has to do withย it — The Conservation #ActOnClimate

Visitors walk past a sign reading โ€˜Stop: Extreme Heat Dangerโ€™ in Death Valley National Park during a heat wave on July 7, 2024. Etienne Laurent/AFP via Getty Images

Mathew Barlow, UMass Lowell and Jeffrey Basara, UMass Lowell

A month into summer 2024, the vast majority of the U.S. population had already experienced at least one extreme heat wave, and millions of people were under heat alerts, with forecasts warning of more ahead.

Death Valley hit 125 degrees Fahrenheit (51.7 Celsius) or higher for nine consecutive days in early July. Las Vegas broke its all-time heat record at 120 F (48.9 C). Days of 100-degree heat dried out the California landscapes, fueling wildfires there and in the Northwest. Oregon reported several suspected heat deaths.

Globally, the planet had its hottest day in at least eight decades of recordkeeping on July 21 โ€“ and then broke the record again on July 22, according to the European Unionโ€™s Copernicus Climate Change Service.

The extreme heat is part of a longer trend: Each of the past 13 months has been the hottest on record for that month globally, including the hottest June, the EU service reported in early July. It also found that the average temperature for the previous 12 months had been at least 1.5 C (2.7 F) warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

A chart shows yearly averages and the trend line going out 10 more years before it crosses 1.5 C for the 30-year average.
Global temperatures showing the trend line averaged over 30 years. Copernicus Climate Change and Atmosphere Monitoring Services

The 1.5 C warming threshold can be confusing, so letโ€™s take a closer look at what that means. In the Paris climate agreement, countries worldwide agreed to work to keep global warming under 1.5 C, however that refers to the temperature change averaged over a 30-year period. A 30-year average is used to limit the influence of natural year-to-year fluctuations.

So far, the Earth has only crossed that threshold for a single year. However, it is still extremely concerning. We study weather patterns involving heat. The world appears to be on track to cross the 30-year average threshold of 1.5 C within 10 years.

Heat is becoming a global problem

Several countries have experienced record heat across the Americas, Africa, Europe and Asia in 2024. In Mexico and Central America, weeks of persistent heat starting in spring 2024 combined with prolonged drought led to severe water shortages and dozens of deaths.

Extreme heat turned into tragedy in Saudi Arabia, as over 1,000 people on the Hajj, a Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, collapsed and died. Temperatures reached 125 F (51.8 C) at the Grand Mosque in Mecca on June 17.

A large number of people in traditional clothing covering them from their necks to their wrists and ankles walk on wide pathway, some carrying umbrellas for shade.
Muslim pilgrims spent hours in extreme temperatures and humidity during the Hajj in June 2024 in Saudi Arabia. Over 1,000 people died in the heat. AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool

Hospitals in Karachi, Pakistan, were overwhelmed amid weeks of high heat, frequent power outages, and water shortages in some areas. Neighboring India faced temperatures around 120 F (48.9 C) for several days in April and May that affected millions of people, many of them without air conditioning.

Japan issued heatstroke alerts in Tokyo and more than half of its prefectures as temperatures rose to record highs in early July.

Large parts of Europe were suffering through a long-running heat wave as the 2024 Summer Olympics prepared to open in Paris in late July.

The climate connection: This isnโ€™t โ€˜just summerโ€™

Although heat waves are a natural part of the climate, the severity and extent of the heat waves so far in 2024 are not โ€œjust summer.โ€

A scientific assessment of the fierce heat wave in the eastern U.S. in June 2024 estimates that heat so severe and long-lasting was two to four times more likely to occur today because of human-caused climate change than it would have been without it. This conclusion is consistent with the rapid increase over the past several decades in the number of U.S. heat waves and their occurrence outside the peak of summer.

These record heat waves are happening in a climate thatโ€™s globally more than 2.2 F (1.2 C) warmer โ€“ when looking at the 30-year average โ€“ than it was before the industrial revolution, when humans began releasing large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions that warm the climate.

Two global maps show much faster warming per decade over the past 30 years than in the past 120 years.
Global surface temperatures have risen faster per decade in the past 30 years than over the past 120. NOAA NCEI

While a temperature difference of a degree or two when you walk into a different room might not even be noticeable, even fractions of a degree make a large difference in the global climate.

At the peak of the last ice age, some 20,000 years ago, when the Northeast U.S. was under thousands of feet of ice, the globally averaged temperature was only about 11 F (6 C) cooler than now. So, it is not surprising that 2.2 F (1.2 C) of warming so far is already rapidly changing the climate.

If you thought this was hot

While this summer is likely be one of the hottest on record, it is important to realize that it may also be one of the coldest summers of the future.

For populations that are especially vulnerable to heat, including young children, older adults and outdoor workers, the risks are even higher. People in lower-income neighborhoods where air conditioning may be unaffordable and renters who often donโ€™t have the same protections for cooling as heating will face increasingly dangerous conditions.

Extreme heat can also affect economies. It can buckle railroad tracks and cause wires to sag, leading to transit delays and disruptions. It can also overload electric systems with high demand and lead to blackouts just when people have the greatest need for cooling.

The good news: There are solutions

Yes, the future in a warming world is daunting. However, while countries arenโ€™t on pace to meet their Paris Agreement goals, they have made progress.

In the U.S., the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act has the potential to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by nearly half by 2035.

Switching from air conditioners to heat pumps and network geothermal systems can not only reduce fossil fuel emissions but also provide cooling at a lower cost. The cost of renewable energy continues to plummet, and many countries are increasing policy support and incentives.

A chart shows the number of heat waves is likely to be four times higher in a world 2.7 F (1.5 C) warmer and nearly five times higher in a world 6.3 F (3.5 C) warmer. Both scenarios are possible as global emissions rise.
Actions to reduce warming can limit a wide range of hazards and create numerous near-term benefits and opportunities. National Climate Assessment 2023

There is much that humanity can do to limit future warming if countries, companies and people everywhere act with urgency. Rapidly reducing fossil fuel emissions can help avoid a warmer future with even worse heat waves and droughts, while also providing other benefits, including improving public health, creating jobs and reducing risks to ecosystems.

This is an update to an article originally published on June 26, 2024.

Mathew Barlow, Professor of Climate Science, UMass Lowell and Jeffrey Basara, Professor of Meteorology, UMass Lowell

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

#Coal’s Big Breakdown is Back!: A chart for a sizzling Friday — Jonathan P. Thompson (The Land Desk) #ActOnClimate

Photo credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

July 12, 2024

Itโ€™s Friday, itโ€™s hot, the world seems to be collapsing in multiple ways, so I thought Iโ€™d bring you a bit of good news for a change: Coalโ€™s big breakdown is back. Okay, so itโ€™s not great news for coal-company CEOs, or for the industry workers who will lose their jobs. But for the planet and all the folks who have had to live with coal mining and coal burning and all of its deleterious effects, itโ€™s got to be a relief.

In his excellent book, Fire on the Plateau, the late, great scholar Charles Wilkinson coined the term โ€œBig Buildupโ€ to describe the flurry of postwar development of coal plants (and dams, uranium mining, oil and gas, etc.) on the Colorado Plateau. The Big Breakdown refers to the decline of the coal industry in the West, as big coal plants are mothballed and the mines shut down and, hopefully, reclaimed, and the air cleans itself up as a result.

The Breakdown began back in 2008, during the global financial crisis, when power consumption plummeted. The economy recovered. Coal did not โ€” it had become more expensive than other energy alternatives and is dirtier, besides, so utilities rushed to rid themselves of the old smoke-spewing behemoths. But then, in the wake of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, coal bounced back, sparking a bit of panic among clean air lovers everywhere. And lawmakers in Utah, Wyoming, and other fossil-fuel-fetishizing states rushed to pass laws to interfere in the free market and prop up the dying industry.

Alas, it isnโ€™t working, as todayโ€™s chart โ€” showing both electricity consumption and coal consumption โ€” reveals. Iโ€™ve run this chart here before, but I wanted to update yโ€™all because I really like it. Not only does it show how the grid is getting cleaner, but also provides a nice graphic look at U.S. energy history over the last 75 years.

Credit: Jonathan P. Thompson/The Land Desk
  • A. Coal was the king of the Industrial Age, of course, providing power to run mines and mills and factories and trains, while also heating homes. But by the 1950s the industry was struggling somewhat, as diesel locomotives supplanted the steam ones, natural gas gained ground for heating and cooking, and huge hydroelectric dams blocked rivers across the West to generate power. As of 1955, only 10% of the Western Gridโ€™s power was generated from coal; nearly all the rest was from hydropower.
  • B. Congress established the Office of Coal Research in 1960 โ€œto encourage and stimulate the production โ€ฆ of coal (and to) maximize the contribution of coal to the overall energy market.โ€
  • C. The Big Buildup began in the 1960s with the construction of Four Corners Power Plant on the Navajo Nation in northwestern New Mexico. The construction and operation of the plant and adjacent mine wereย rife with environmental injustice.
  • D. The Clean Air Act passed in 1970. You might think that would be the death knell for coal, pretty much the dirtiest fuel out there. But no, it did little to slow coal-burning and it actually boosted relatively low-sulfur coal from Western mines which emits less sulfur dioxide when burned.
  • E. In 1973 OPEC stopped sending oil and natural gas to the U.S. and its allies to retaliate for U.S. support of Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Further unrest in the Middle East continued to drive up oil and natural gas prices, motivating utilities to burn more coal to generate power.
  • F. President Jimmy Carter took office during these crises in 1977, the same year Atlantic Richfield Company opened its Black Thunder Mine in the Powder River Basin, which would go on to become the worldโ€™s largest coal mine. Carter was a walking contradiction, boosting solar and other clean energy and public lands protections on the one hand, and going all in on coal mining and burning on the other.ย He pushed domestic coalย to displace oil or natural gas (much of which was imported) then used to generate power. Carter also hoped to make synthetic transportation fuels from coal and oil shale and he and Congress put billions toward synfuel subsidies.
  • G. In 1978 Congress passed the Industrial Fuels Power Act, which basically banned the construction of any new natural gas power plants (another reaction to the energy crises). Coal was the big winner of that one.
  • H. Carter was also a big pusher of conservation, in rhetoric and policy, and high energy prices bolstered his cause. Electricity consumption flattened and even dropped in the 1980s for the first time in three decades. Yet coal use shot up tremendously at the same time. Under Reagan, electricity use climbed again, but coal consumption dropped. Why? Because OPEC decided to flood the market with oil, lowering oil and gas prices to make them the cheapest fossil fuels for generating electricity.
  • I. Congress amends the Clean Air Act to tackle the acid rain problem, especially in the East and Midwest. Instead of hurting the coal industry, however, it again gave an even bigger boost to the Western mines. The Powder River Basin solidified its status as the nationโ€™s coal bin.
  • J. Peak Coal occurred in 2007. There is virtually no chance U.S. mines will ever produce or plants burn as much coal as they did that year.
  • K. Electricity use plummeted during the 2008 Financial Crisis and coal use dropped with it. As the economy recovered, something strange happened: Electricity use stayed fairly flat, thanks to efficiency and other measures. Coal burning started to recover, but โ€ฆ
  • L. In 2009 natural gas prices crashed after the combination of horizontal drilling and multi-stage hydraulic fracturing opened up vast stores of methane previously believed to be unrecoverable. That glutted the market with gas, making it cost-competitive with coal. Meanwhile, Democrats and even some national environmental groups were pushing natural gas as a โ€œbridge fuelโ€ to get from dirty coal to renewables. At the same time, oodles of solar and wind generating capacity were being brought online, in part thanks to federal incentives. All of this combined to knock King Coal off its throne. Itโ€™s been in freefall (with a blip or two) ever since due mostly to fluctuations in natural gas prices.
  • M. The first wave of the pandemic and measures taken to slow its spread helped Americans reduce their electricity use considerably. Because coal was one of the most expensive sources of power on the grid, utilities ditched it first, so the dirty fuel took an even bigger blow. Coal plant retirement plans accelerated and it seemed as if coal could be in its final throes.
  • N. But then the economy recovered along with power use. At the same time, extreme heat drove up demand for more power, hydropower waned, and utilities needed to fill the gap between supply and demand. They turned first to natural gas, which caused prices of that fuel to increase, andย then to coal. Thus the Big Breakdownโ€™s dramatic pause in 2021.
  • But the Big Breakdown is back on. In 2023, coal use plummeted once again. And judging by the first quarter of 2024, there will be even less use this year, even as power demand creeps higher.

“Power Madness” in America, the Big Buildup of coal, and a Senate hearing from five decades ago — JONATHAN P. THOMPSON OCTOBER 1, 2020

https://www.landdesk.org/p/power-madness-in-america-the-big-buildup-of-coal-and-a-senate-hearing-from-five-decades-ago Read full story

๐Ÿฅต Aridification Watch ๐Ÿซ

Thereโ€™s a lot of big fires burning out there, with dozens of new starts daily across the West. The McDonald Fire in Alaska was first noticed on July 9; itโ€™s now up to about 150,000 acres. The Cow Valley Fire in Malheur County, Oregon, has grown to 20,000 acres; it was ignited just yesterday. The Silver King Fire in Utahโ€™s Tushar Mountains has charred through about 14,000 acres and forced the cancellation of a major gravel bike race there. Thereโ€™s also the Babylon Fire south of Dark Canyon within the boundaries of Bears Ears National Monument. Itโ€™s grown to about 200 acres in a remote location that, frankly, could use a little bit of therapeutic burning (thanks to our favorite fire lookout readers for tipping us off to it.) Be careful out there, folks!


๐Ÿ“ธย Parting Shotย ๐ŸŽž๏ธ

A datura flower in southern Utah: shy by day; flirtatious and lascivious by night. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

A coal community without the #coal — Allen Best (@BigPivots) #ActOnClimate

Craig station. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

July 9, 2024

Colorado legislators said coal communities should be helped in the energy transition. This agreement with Craig and Moffat County provides a picture of what that looks like in practice.

No other place in Colorado may be so dependent upon one company, one industry, as Craig and Moffat County.

Snow matters greatly to Aspen and Vail and the other ski towns who are linked at the hip, sometimes uncomfortably, with the big ski companies who sell the thrill of sliding downhill. But summer tourism, less dependent on uphill conveyance, has been coming on for decades. In Crested Butte, summer surpassed winter in the 1990s. Second-home development itself is a major economic sector, skiing just one of the amenities. Sales tax figures between a good snow year and a bad year vary relatively little.

In Craig, the mining and burning of coal has delivered the community a paycheck for nearly a half-century. The coal plant and the two primary coal mines that deliver fuel to the plant generate 43% of the total property taxes paid to Moffat County and various school, fire, and other districts this year. The 437 jobs in this smaller community that are being lost are, according to one analysis, the equivalent of 141,000 jobs in metropolitan Denver-Aurora.

Now, with the last coal-burning units to close down by 2028, a settlement agreement has been reached that some call a landmark. Tri-State Generation and Transmission Association, the operator and primary owner of the three coal-burning units at Craig Generation Station and Colowyo, one of the two coal mines that supply it, has agreed to pay the local community up to $73 million in payments beginning in 2026.

In addition, Tri-State has also agreed to give Moffat County augmentation water rights with a value estimated by Moffat County at $2 million to $3 million.

This agreement has been submitted to the Colorado Public Utilities Commission which can amend it, even reject it. If the past is precedent, the PUC commissioners are likely to approve it with little change.

Local officials involved in the negotiating say that it wonโ€™t make their community economically whole, but it will help them as they try to figure out how to rebuild their economy. One hope is that a revitalized rail service authorized by state legislators this year from Denver to Craig may interest manufacturers or create a stronger, safer connection to the Steamboat resort economy. Others have suggested that expanding tourism amenities can soften the departure of coal; others stoutly reject the idea of becoming โ€œsheet changers.โ€

The Tri-State settlement agreement also applies to the broader electric resource plan being reviewed by the PUC. It has several major provisions:

  • Addition of 940 megawatts of renewable generation and 310 megawatts of battery storage to its generating capacity in its territory.
  • Retirement of Craig Unit 3, previously scheduled for 2030, by Jan. 1, 2028.
  • Solicitation of 290 megawatts of dispatchable combined-cycle gas plant, with first preference in Moffat County but somewhere in western Colorado or southwestern Wyoming if the bids for a Craig-area plant arenโ€™t competitive.
  • Retirement of a coal-burning unit in eastern Arizona called Springerville 3 that was commissioned in 2006. That unit is to be closed by September 15, 2031, leaving Tri-State with ownership in just one coal-burning unit at the Laramie River Station in Wyoming.

Tri-State expects to achieve an 89% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 as compared to 2005 levels.

Important in Tri-Stateโ€™s pivot from coal in Colorado and Arizona is whether Tri-State gets federal aid. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 carved out $9.7 billion to assist electrical providers in rural America with stranded assets. Individual G&Ts can apply for up to 10% of the total amount in the New ERA program. That means that Tri-State may have applied for up to $970 million. Tri-State has not disclosed publicly how much it has applied for. The agreement, however, is not dependent upon whether Tri-State gets federal money. It will be needed, though, given the existing debt on the coal infrastructure.

Matt Gearhart, an attorney representing the Sierra Club in the proceeding, noted the importance of the New ERA funding in allowing utilities to think about retiring even relatively new coal-fired plants. Springerville came on line in 2006.

He also noted that the major natural gas plant in Craig is not a given. Whether that makes sense beyond providing local tax base and jobs is a discussion for a later day…

The settlement agreement can be found in the PUC files; itโ€™s proceeding number 23A-0585E.

The three units of Craig Station were constructed from 1974 to 1984. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Coal is abundant in northwest Colorado. Thatโ€™s why Public Service Co., now a subsidiary of Xcel Energy, in the 1960s built a coal plant near Hayden, 15 miles to the east of Craig and far distant from most of the utilityโ€™s consumers in metro Denver and elsewhere in the state.

Construction of the coal-burning units at Craig were started in 1974, a time when demand for electricity was soaring and utilities had learned how to build ever-bigger coal plants. Coal-plant construction was also induced by the expectation that oil shale in the nearby Piceance Basin would drive demand for greater amounts of electricity. That demand did not materialize, and in the late 1980s the utility, Colorado Ute, was forced into bankruptcy. Tri-State and other utilities picked up the pieces.

Tri-State owns the third unit outright but is a minority owner in the first two units. Other owners are Arizona-based Salt River Project (29%), the Oregon-based PacifiCorp (19.28%), Fort Collins-based Platte River Power Authority (18%), and Public Service Co., a.k.a. Xcel Energy (9.2%).

In 1979, during the construction years, I was in Craig briefly to work on local newspapers but returned rarely until 2015.

New EPA regulations governing pollutants had dampened the prospects of coal. WildEarth Guardians had launched an anti-coal campaign. Among its supporters was New Belgium, the brewery in Fort Collins.

I arrived on a September Sunday to conduct interviews. Later, out of curiosity, I wandered into a liquor store just before a Denver Broncos game. Beer was moving by the case, but none were Fat Tire or other New Belgium brews. They had become brews non grata in Craig, a place where coal was akin to religion.

In September 2015, Craig was feeling under siege as enforcement of federal regulations began drawing a smaller circle around emissions from the three coal-fired electrical generating units. Photo/Allen Best

But while locals virtuously posted signs that said โ€œCoal: It Keeps Our Lights On,โ€ renewables were increasingly doing so, too, and with rapidly declining prices.

In April 2018, Tri-State brought on board a new chief executive, Duane Highley, with a clear mission to begin the pivot. In January 2020, in a ceremony at the Colorado Capitol, Highley announced that Tri-State planned to shut down the last of the coal units at Craig by 2030.

If the writing had been on the wall, there was still disbelief among many. That was evident in a March 2020 session at the high school in Craig. Anger was evident in remarks made to state representatives, but the more common thread was disbelief. What would replace the jobs, the tax base? And why was this necessary?

Among those listening that night and in a session the following day at Northwest Colorado Community College was Wade Buchanan. That week he had started as the first administrator of Coloradoโ€™s new Office of Just Transition. The department had been created by state legislators the previous spring. At that time, he had no staff and not much budget.

While adopting sweeping legislation to accelerate Coloradoโ€™s response to climate change, state legislators in 2019 had made it clear that coal-dependent communities were to be given a helping hand as Colorado made the necessary pivot from coal because of the climate and health impacts of burning coal.

The just transition law,ย HB19-13140,ย said this: โ€œColorado must ensure that the clean energy economy fulfills a moral commitment to assist the workers and communities that have powered Colorado for generations, as well as the disproportionately impacted communities who have borne the costs of coal power pollution for decades, and to thereby support a just and inclusive transition.โ€

What exactly that means in practice for Craig, though, was not spelled out. Other legislation more precisely laid out the expectations of Xcel Energy for its remaining coal communities. Legislators clearly thought that Xcel Energy, the stateโ€™s largest utility, and its customers needed to help out the Pueblo and Hayden communities, where coal plants will be retired, and at Brush, where the coal plant will be converted to burn natural gas.

Tri-State, if the stateโ€™s second largest electrical generator, has a different business model. Itโ€™s an electrical cooperative that was formed by its member cooperatives to deliver power. It has no overt profit motive.

Coal for the Craig units comes principally from two coal mines in Moffat County. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Tri-State insisted, even days prior to the settlement agreement, that it was not required by state law to submit a community assistance plan or a workforce transition plan. It further pointed out that, unlike Xcel Energy, its member cooperatives โ€œserve some of the most economically disadvantaged rural consumers in the West, many of whom reside outside of Colorado.โ€ Indeed, Tri-State has members in four states, including Arizona, Wyoming and Nebraska.

However, even in 2022, Tri-State had agreed in a prior settlement to participate in planning that would provide community assistance.

Discussions about what that would look like became more vigorously discussed in monthly meetings facilitated by the Great Plains Institute that were held in Craig beginning in June 2023.

Tri-Stateโ€™s first proposal was for community improvement projects, such as a new swimming pool.

Craig Mayor Craig Nichols says that after considering the offer, the local leaders quickly decided that wasnโ€™t the best option.

โ€œOnce they closed the local plants and were gone, how would we continue to pay for those things?โ€ says Nichols. โ€œSo we switched our No. 1 priority to the payments into a perpetual trust for the community.โ€

Joseph Pereira, the deputy director of the Office of Utility Consumer Advocate, the state agency charged with looking after the interests of consumers in utility matters, entered key arguments.

โ€œThis is an issue of fundamental fairness,โ€ said Pereira in a May filing. โ€œIt would be fundamentally unfair to treat coal communities differently dependent upon what type of utility (investor owned or cooperative) generated energy. Moreover, it is difficult to conceive the intent of the legislature was to ensure a community like Pueblo, served by PSCo (Xcel), should be provided community assistance, but Craig is left to fend for itself.โ€

Buchanan, in his filing on behalf of the Office of Just Transition, painted a dark picture.

โ€œCraig and Moffat County face a near-existential threat by the end of this decade. When a handful of entities that generate 43% of the property taxes in a community go out of business at the same time, it signals the potential for a broad, deep, and long-lasting โ€“ perhaps even permanent โ€“ decline in economic activity and opportunities from which no community can quickly or easily recover.โ€

Jennifer Holloway, the executive director of the Craig & Moffat County Chamber of Commerce, points to a memorial at the one-time mining coal mining camp of Mt. Harris where her grandfather lost his life in 1942. Mt. Harris lies about 25 miles east of Craig. Mining no longer occurs there. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

In his testimony, Buchanan compared Craig and Moffat County with other places in Colorado. The property tax hit is probably twice that of local jurisdictions where the Comanche and Pawnee coal plants are located in Pueblo and Morgan counties, and 2.9 times that of the coal plant at Hayden, in Routt County.

The job loss was also outsized compared to the other locations: 5.1 times the percentage loss in nearby Routt County, 16.8 times the expected percentage loss in Morgan County and 33.7 times the expected percentage loss in Pueblo County.

โ€œThose three will also warrant sizable community and worker assistance commitments by Xcel Energy, the primary owner and operator of the coal plants,โ€ Buchanan said in his testimony. โ€œBut none of the impacts in these counties will come close to those faced by Moffat County.โ€

Since it created the Office of Just Transition with a skimpy budget, legislators have allocated $35 million to the office and its efforts. Buchanan estimated that more than $17 million of that money will be awarded to Yampa Valley communities, mostly in Craig and Moffat County, in grants or to assist in what are called pre-closure strategies for potentially dislocated workers and their families. Somebody with the very unusual job description of โ€œtransition navigatorโ€ has been hired to help workers figure out their futures.

One grant of $40,000 went to Moffat County and Craig to develop infrastructure in the Yampa River to attract outdoor-based tourism.

Another $150,000 was given Moffat County to fund a socio-economic study to assess the impacts of a proposed pumped-storage hydro power project that could create 300 construction jobs and 30 high-paying permanent jobs โ€” and also generate property tax.

Still another grant of $50,000 was given to help Moffat County retain independent legal counsel. In PUC proceedings, Denver and Boulder routinely enter filings in cases they deem important to their interests. Pueblo does, too. But this was something of foreign terrain for the northwest Colorado communities.

The settlement โ€œis a big deal,โ€ said Buchanan when I talked with him after the settlement agreement had been filed. He identified what he saw as several key elements.

One, he and his staff found their footing. โ€œWe realized that from the stateโ€™s perspective, that if we were going to do our job, we first and foremost had to be an effective partner with the affected communities. No coming and telling them what to do or how to do it or that we had the answers for the challenges they were facing,โ€ he said.

The message was that โ€œwe are here to stand with you in this transition.โ€œ

Thatโ€™s why the money was allocated for an outside attorney, to give the local communities an opportunity to have a voice.

The Office of Just Transition plans to make the same offer for Hayden and Routt County, he said.

Part of it was the stakeholder process facilitated by the Great Plains Institute.

A second key element was that Tri-State, despite its legal protestations of exemption from requirements, decided to step up. โ€œThe commitment they made in that settlement agreement is pretty significant.โ€ It will โ€œgreatly empower the communities to have the resources to drive their own transition in the future.โ€

Third is that these communities have evolved in their thinking. The transition remains a huge challenge, and for the most part, โ€œthey donโ€™t like the ideaโ€ of making this change. But they have โ€œresolved to do what they can to take control of the transition they are a part of. Thatโ€™s a very important thing.โ€

In summary, โ€œwe found our footing about how to do our work, Tri-State stepped up to the plate, and Craig and Moffat County found their voice in the process.โ€

Buchanan recommended that the PUC require Tri-State to provide $118 million in community assistance. How should the settlement of $73 million be seen? One individual involved in the case, talking only for background, said that it reflects the normal negotiating process. You ask for high and accept something less.

Nichols, the mayor of the city of 9,000 people, praised Tri-State for doing โ€œmore than they had to do. They had to do nothing. It really set the bar for future transitions.โ€

โ€œThis shows what the actual cost of decarbonization looks like,โ€ he added.

Randy Looper, now a city council member, at the Elk Run Inn that he operated in 2020. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Randy Looper, a city council member and retired hotelier, said he doesnโ€™t expect overnight transformation but he expects Craig can achieve a more diversified economy.

Looper especially likes the structure of the aid. Moffat County and Craig are to get $22 million in direct payments from 2026 to 2029. The money is to be used at their discretion.

From 2028 to 2038, Tri-State has agreed to provide up to $48 million more. But the agreement also specifies that this can be reduced if Tri-State reinvests in Craig and Moffat County. If Tri-State builds a natural gas plant that pays $2 million in property taxes, that can be deducted from the $7 million that Tri-State would ordinarily pay the city and county.

โ€œThey have incentive to build new things in Moffat County,โ€ Looper said. โ€œItโ€™s a win-win for Craig and Moffat County.โ€

I met Looper maybe 10 years ago on a visit to Craig. He himself had left a job in banking in downtown Denver many years before, first to run a motel in Iowa until, becoming weary of the muggy summers, relocated to Craig. The older motel that they operated in Craig was wonderfully esoteric. His wife had advised wildlife themes for each room, and this went far beyond hanging photos or other art. Even toilet fixtures managed to have that unitโ€™s theme. I stayed in the sheep, elk, and antelope roomsโ€“ and many more โ€” but not the rattlesnake room. I wouldnโ€™t have slept well.

In March 2020 I was there for the mildly stormy meeting at the high school. Two days later, Gov. Jared Polis arrived in Craig and toured a boating store. It was just Polis and the two store owners โ€“ and me. That afternoon, he was at the Hayden Town Hall to hear testimony. Sometime that afternoon, word was sent out that Colorado had its first confirmed case of Covid-19.

That summer, instead of sinking real estate prices, Craigโ€™s market actually gained. People were ready to leave behind the cities, whether in Colorado or Utah or wherever, for more rural living, if they could. Today, Craig hasnโ€™t gained population, but neither has it lost any, said Looper. That has occurred even as the employment at the coal plant has dropped significantly, from about 300 to about 110.

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis stopped by a store in Craig devoted to boating gear prior to a meeting about coal closures in early March 2020. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

The larger question is what exactly does this agreement represent and how may it influence other cases in Colorado? Xcel even now is readying an application for a just transition electric resource plan that will speak to how it can help Pueblo, Hayden, and Morgan County as the coal plants close or, in the case of the latter, get converted to natural gas. The application is due Aug. 1.

No doubt, this settlement agreement will in some way influence the other cases in Colorado. How could it not.? (And to be fair, some of Xcelโ€™s agreements to Pueblo influenced this settlement).

โ€œI donโ€™t want to speculate about how this one will inform other commitments, but Iโ€™m pretty sure it will,โ€ Buchanan told me.

A still larger question is how do we see this component of just transition in the broader conversation of this energy transition?

The coal communities thought they were doing good, meaningful work โ€” and work that happened to pay well. Not like the high-tech jobs in Boulder or Denver, but good enough for a solid living. Craig is not a place of extremes in wealth. Itโ€™s solidly working class, middle class. Big pickups, sure, but not enormous houses.

Inevitably, when your job is digging and burning coal, your identity gets tied up in those duties. Then, to be told that what youโ€™re doing is somehow wrong? That would be hard to reconcile.

True, even in the 1950s and 1960s, we had very strong, very firm evidence that putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere was a very risky endeavor. A book I recently read, โ€œFire Weather: A True Story from a Hotter World,โ€ makes that even more clear than I had previously understood. But as a society, we had not made that decision.

In the absence of other technologies, electricity generated by combustion of coal made our lives easier.

Now, at least in Colorado, and to a large degree in the United States and the world, we have concluded we must change directions. How, as the legislators put it, do we achieve a just transition, not leaving the coal communities behind?

Buchanan, in his filings and in our conversation, repeatedly emphasized the enormity of change for fossil fuel communities. โ€œThey served our economy well, and now they are being asked to do something that is extraordinarily difficult and potentially quite painful.โ€

What Colorado is trying to do is make this transition a little less painful. Pereira, at the Office of Utility Consumer Advocate, emphasized the social contract between energy communities and the broader society.

โ€œIf you create bogeymen out of communities, youโ€™re undercutting the ultimate goal you are trying to achieve. We are not trying to decarbonize for the sake of climate. We are trying to decarbonize for social reasons, so we have a better place to live. If you are not including the social aspect of taking care of the communities, you are undercutting your overall goals.โ€

Downtown Craig has freshened up but has lost business to the chain retailers on the cityโ€™s edge. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

This particular case was more difficult because there was no defined policy solution in regulations.

โ€œThe Legislature defined what it wanted for investor-owned utilities. This was unique because it required purely novel arguments. So there was new advocacy by our office, these novel arguments, to come to a position that worked for them.โ€

To get there required strong community advocacy, which Craig and Moffat County delivered.

The result was a very rare outcome over public policy. It was not a matter of somebody wins, somebody loses. โ€œYou know how rare that is in policy making?โ€ he said.

How much of this applies to Pueblo? There, an advocacy group aligned with Xcel has made the case that Xcel should build a nuclear power plant to replace the lost jobs and revenue from Comanche Generating Station. That argument is hard to accept divorced from the reality of the current cost of nuclear technology. Weโ€™ll see where this lands.

As the mayor of Craig mentioned, there is a cost to the decarbonization. True, renewables are coming in cheaper, but there is a cost. Every utility manager recites โ€œcost and reliabilityโ€ morning, noon, and night. So what do we make of the cost here? Tri-State will spread its costs among its members, as will Xcel among its customers.

Among the parties to the settlement agreement was a member cooperative based in Holyoke called Highline Electric. Dennis Herman, the general manager, did not speak to the assistance to Craig and Moffat County, but he did testify in a press release that Tri-Stateโ€™s plans will add significant renewable resources while demonstrating how to deliver reliable power to its members, even in extreme events.

Less than 20 years ago I traveled to Holyoke for a story about why the farmers there supported another Tri-State coal plant in Kansas. There, in the land of center pivots, theyโ€™ve made a big pivot in their thinking, as has Tri-State altogether and Colorado altogether.

Yampa River Basin via Wikimedia.

#ClimateChange’s coal-smudged fingerprints: A survey of heat-related news from across the West — Jonathan P. Thompson #ActOnClimate #coal

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

July 9, 2024

๐Ÿฅต Aridification Watch ๐Ÿซ

Writing about weather in the climate crisis-era is like navigating an obstacle course littered with critics. One faction chides me if I write about insane rainstorms and flash flooding without attributing them to human-caused climate change; another blasts me for bringing up climate change too often, whether itโ€™s to explain an especially active avalanche cycle or a long-term drought. Even the spate of โ€œbillion-dollar disastersโ€ in recent years could be blamed on climate change, sure, but also on more development and humanity in the path of those disasters. 

Quite often those critics are the voices in my own head. Part of this is due to my hankering to learn the history of a place, particularly southwestern Colorado. Every time thereโ€™s an โ€œunprecedentedโ€ drought or flood, I can look back into my mental archives and find an example of an equally severe one. There was the huge snow year of 1932, when the Durango-to-Silverton train was blockaded for 90 days straight; the great floods of 1911, 1884, 1927, and 1970, which wreaked havoc along the regionโ€™s streams and rivers; the dismally dry and warm winter of 1878-79 that preceded the Lime Creek Burn; and the grainy 1918 photo of a water-wagon doing dust control on Silvertonโ€™s streets โ€” in January. 

Weather is and always has been wacky, with or without human-caused climate change. So Iโ€™m always careful before saying some meteorological event is โ€œunprecedented.โ€ 

But this heat? Damn. It sure does look unprecedented โ€” if the temperature alone isnโ€™t shattering records, the duration of the heat waves are.

A better term than climate change is climate heating, because thatโ€™s exactly whatโ€™s happening: The planet is heating up as a result of Industrial (and Information) Age humans spewing oodles of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. And while it may be difficult to find climate changeโ€™s figurative fingerprints on every incidence of severe weather, its coal-smudged paw-prints appear to be all over the longer and more severe spells of extreme heat weโ€™ve been perspiring through in recent years. No, every record-breaking high temperature cannot be attributed unequivocally to climate change, but climate change does make these events far more likely to occur.

Last year was the warmest year on our planet since global record-keeping began in 1850, clocking in at 2.12 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the 20th century average of 57ยฐ F. And guess what? This year will likely be even hotter: This June was the hottest June on record, globally, and the 13th consecutive monthly high temperature record. Eeek. 

So, when the mercury in Las Vegas tops out at 120 degrees F and shatters the previous record of 117ยฐ F, as occurred last week, I think itโ€™s not a stretch to attribute this specific weather wackiness to the warming climate (with a helping hand from the urban heat island effect, of course). And when this sort of heat stretches across a good portion of the West, follows record-setting, flash-flooding rainfall by a few weeks, and coincides with a hurricane ripping through the Carribean, well, itโ€™s probably safe to assume that itโ€™s all connected, via a warming climate. It is not safe, however, to go outside. 

So, with that out of the way, hereโ€™s a rundown of some of the wackiness of late: 

  • Phoenix just endured its hottest June on record, with an average monthly temperature of 97ยฐF, or nearly six degrees above the 1990-2020 normal. So far this summer the daily high temperature has reached 110ยฐ F or warmer on 21 occasions, and 118ยฐ F on two days; the city has received just .02 inches of precipitation since April 2. Maricopa County officials have confirmed heat caused or contributed to 13 deaths so far this year, with another 162 fatalities under investigation. Thatโ€™s significantly more than last year at this time.
  • Dozens of monthly maximum high temperature records were broken across the West in June and early July, especially along the West Coast, where the mercury was โ€” and still is โ€” reaching the triple digits day after day. Oregon officials suspect five deaths in the western part of the state in recent days areย heat-related.ย 
  • Las Vegasย shattered its all-time high heat recordย with 120 degrees F on July 7. The previous record was 117.ย 

  • A new daily record was set in Death Valley, at 129 F. A motorcyclist touring through the national parkย died of heat exposure.ย 
  • Sixteen locations in the West set monthly precipitationย recordsย in June, including:
    • Hovenweep National Monument, with 1.05 inches on June 28;
    • Arches National Park, 1.58โ€ on June 28;
    • Panguitch, Utah, 1.50โ€ on June 26;
    • Quemazon, New Mexico, 5.50โ€ on June 21;
    • Arivaca, Arizona, 2.25โ€ on June 24;
    • Ely, Nevada, 1.58โ€ on June 26;
    • Mormon Mountain, Arizona, 2.30โ€ on June 27.ย 

  • Major wildfires are burning across the West. Before I get into the details, do spare a thought for the thousands of people fighting these fires. Not only do the flames and smoke threaten their health and lives, but so does the brutal heat. This is a sampling of some of the new starts (stats as of early a.m. July 9):
    • Silver King in Piute County, Utah, at 10,026 acres, 0% containment;ย 
    • Deer Springs in Kane County, Utah, (north-northeast of Kanab) at 11,000 acres, 0% containment;ย 
    • Fisher in Socorro County, New Mexico, at 2,500 acres, 1% containment;
    • Lake in Santa Barbara County, California, at 21,763 acres, 8% containment;ย 
    • Shelly in Siskiyou County, California, at 4,203 acres, 0% containment (this one is likely to burn a โ€œcarbon offsetโ€ forest, where corporations pay the owner to not chop down trees so they can continue polluting). Whoops.;
    • Salt Creek Rd in Jackson County, Oregon, 1,700 acres, 2% containment;
    • North in Modoc County, California, 4,380 acres, 50% containment;ย 
    • Thompson in Butte County, California, which is 100% contained after burning 3,789 acres. I include it here because it forced the shutdown of transmission lines, taking the Oroville Dam hydropower plant offline and depriving the California grid of valuable energy when it needs it to keep air-conditioners running. Itโ€™s yet another example of how extreme weather can strain the power grid.ย 

Explainer: Warming planet, failing grid — JONATHAN P. THOMPSON JUNE 16, 2021

A scorcher has settled over the entire Southwestern United States, with highs expected to hit the triple digits for several days in a row from Bakersfield to Las Vegas to Grand Junction. Phoenicians will be doing the Summer Solstice Swelter during that long day and short nightโ€”the — Read full story

Itโ€™s difficult to see how this is sustainable. Consider for a moment the misery the more than 9,000 unhoused people in Phoenix must be experiencing each and every day this summer. Many of them live on the streets and sidewalks, literally, where the concrete and asphalt can reach 160ยฐ F or more, hot enough to cause severe burns. Poorly insulated housing without cooling can be nearly as bad. Public cooling centers provide refuge, of course, but are there enough?

Sure, if you can afford it, you can hunker down in your home and crank up the air-conditioner and simply wait out the heat. But you could be waiting for quite some time these days; meanwhile, the growing fleet of air-conditioners will strain the grid, increasing the risk of a widespread power outage, which literally could be deadly in this heat.

There is a limit to this sort of thing, and it seems as if we must be getting close to the point where some places simply become uninhabitable. But if weโ€™ve already reached that point, a lot of folks arenโ€™t aware of it: Maricopa County remains one of the fastest growing metros in the U.S. And during the 12 months from June 2023 through May 2024, 48,000 building permits were issued in the metro area for new, private housing structures โ€” numbers not seen since the great housing bubble of a couple decades ago.

Surely the housing bubble will burst, as it has in the past, before too long. But what about the air-conditioning bubble? Can it really last forever?


๐Ÿ  Random Real Estate Room ๐Ÿค‘ 

Speaking of people moving to hostile environments, the Amangiri resort near Lake Powell (and the polygamist settlement of Big Water) is now selling lots to those who can afford it. But donโ€™t worry! While homeowners can avail themselves of the resort amenities, they are separated from those low-brow folks (who are forking out up to $6,500 per night to stay there) by a big slab of sandstone โ€” saving them from having to rub elbows with the Kardashians next to the pool under 100ยฐ+ heat. And it will only cost you between $5 million and $12 million. For the lot, that is. Gross.

Follow Up

Remember my diatribe from a couple weeks ago about data centersโ€™ excessive power use?ย Well, the pitfalls of all of that are playing out as I write this. Arizona Public Service, the stateโ€™s biggest utility, predicts its customers collectively willย set new electricity-demand recordsย this year. And itโ€™s not because of all those new folks moving in or the new homes being built โ€” efficiency gains have actually led to a 5% decrease in overall residential power consumption. Itโ€™s thanks to those data centers, of which there are 79 in the state (71 in Phoenix, seven in Tucson, and one in Nogales). Itโ€™s all fine and good until the grid crashes on a 118ยฐ F day.

A Dog Day Diatribe on AI, cryptocurrency, energy consumption, and capitalism — JONATHAN P. THOMPSON — June 28, 2024

๐Ÿ Things that get my Goat ๐Ÿ I will begin this rant with a thank you to a kind reader for this little tidbit that appeared in their response to a column of mine: Ironically, reducing energy consumption will be counterpโ€ฆRead full story

A String of Supreme Court Decisions Hits Hard at Environmental Rules — The New York Times #ActOnClimate #WOTUS

Click the link to read the article on The New York Times website (Coral Davenport). Here’s an excerpt:

June 29, 2024

This term, the courtโ€™s conservative supermajority handed down several rulings that chip away at the power of many federal agencies. But the environmental agency has been under particular fire, the result of a series of cases brought since 2022 by conservative activists who say that E.P.A. regulations have driven up costs for industries ranging from electric utilities to home building. Those arguments have resonated among justices skeptical of government regulation. On Friday [June 28, 2024], the court ended the use of what is known as the Chevron doctrine, a cornerstone of administrative law for 40 years that said that courts should defer to government agencies to interpret unclear laws. That decision threatens the authority of many federal agenciesย to regulate the environment and also health care, workplace safety, telecommunications, the financial sector and more…

But more remarkable have been several decisions by the court to intervene to stop environmental regulations before they were decided by lower courts or even before they were implemented by the executive branch. On Thursday, the court said the E.P.A. could not limit smokestack pollution that blows across state borders under a measure known as the โ€œgood neighbor rule.โ€ In that case, the court took the surprising step of weighing in while litigation was still pending at the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

Iron Fen. Photo credit from report “A Preliminary Evaluation of Seasonal Water Levels Necessary to Sustain Mount Emmons Fen: Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre and Gunnison National Forests,” David J. Cooper, Ph.D, December 2003.

The court also acted in an unusually preliminary fashion last year when itย struck down a proposed E.P.A. ruleย known as Waters of the United States that was designed to protect millions of acres of wetlands from pollution, acting before the regulation had even been made final…Similarly, in a 2022 challenge to an E.P.A. climate proposal known as the Clean Power Plan, the courtย sharply limited the agencyโ€™s ability to regulate greenhouse gas emissionsย from power plants, even though that rule had not yet taken effect.

That kind of intervention has little in the way of precedent. Usually, the Supreme Court is the last venue to hear a case, after arguments have been made and opinions have been rendered by lower courts…Collectively, those decisions now endanger not only many existing environmental rules, but may prevent future administrations from writing new ones, experts say…

For example, the courtโ€™s decision to curtail the E.P.A.โ€™s authority to regulate wetlands and so-called ephemeral streams means that aboutย half the nationโ€™s wetlands could be polluted or paved without federal penalty, potentially harming thousands of species of plants and animals. In addition,ย new research has shown that the courtโ€™s decisionย also makes major American river basins vulnerable to pollution.

What was left unsaid in Pueblo? — Allen Best (@BigPivots) #ActOnClimate #nuclear

Comanche Generating Station. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

June 26, 2024

In one sense, Adam Frisch was an anomaly on the agenda of an energy conference held in Pueblo last Friday. Heโ€™s a Democrat, making a second run for Congress after narrowly losing in 2022 to Lauren Boebert in Coloradoโ€™s Republican-leaning 3rd Congressional District. The districtโ€™s largest city, Pueblo, once was reliably Democratic but has become a political toss-up.

Republican legislators, both current and former, were present at the conference, but I didnโ€™t notice any Democratic legislators, even from Pueblo. Why that is, itโ€™s hard to say.

Credit Frisch with knowing how to play to his crowd. He tipped his hat to natural gas several times even as he talked about how geothermal would use much the same skills sets and machinery.

He talked extensively about domestic energy mining and energy production. โ€œThereโ€™s no green energy without mining, just none,โ€ he said. He suggested that even now, burning wood may produce more energy than solar โ€“ although he did acknowledge Colorado has far more solar capacity than the national average. He took swipes at the โ€œColorado Capitol,โ€ a reference to the Democrats who have run the show since the 2018 election and who have passed dozens of bills with the intent of pushing and pulling Colorado into a giant pivot that will dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

For the conference on the Pueblo campus of Colorado State University, Frisch dressed in a style that suggested allegiance to his party: blue jeans, blue shirt and blue sports jacket. But he has some tip-toeing to do in this Congressional district. Heโ€™s an Aspen resident, a member of the city council when that cityโ€™s municipal utility, Aspen Electric, succeeded in achieving 100% renewables. And Frisch by no means disavows climate change.

โ€œWhether Iโ€™m in Durango or Boulder or up in Rangely, Colorado, I would say the same thing, that there is a climate crisis,โ€ he said at the outset of his remarks in the conferenceโ€™s opening session. โ€œItโ€™s hotter and drier. Everybody knows this. People are planting at different times, theyโ€™re harvesting at different times, theyโ€™re hunting at different times. But we need to figure out if we truly want to try to solve this problem.โ€

When running as an โ€œoutsider,โ€ itโ€™s useful to point to perceived hypocrisies among the elites. In Colorado, the prime candidate is Boulder.

โ€œI need to poke fun a little bit at my former zip code, because in 2019 Boulder County, of the 3,147 counties in the country, (had) on a per-capita basis the most greenhouse gas emissions per person in the country.โ€

Congressional candidate Adam Frisch explains why generation will be important. Photo/Allen Best

True? Well, not really. It wasnโ€™t Boulder County but one zip code within the county that spawned many stories in 2020. And it wasnโ€™t total greenhouse gas emissions per capita, but only those provoked by buildings. For that matter, the University of Michigan researchers reported that were able to include only two-thirds of the nationโ€™s counties in the study.

With those caveats in mind, they did find that the buildings in zip code 80510 produced 23,811 pounds of carbon dioxide per person. That zip code is in and around Allenspark, along the road between Boulder and Estes Park. Itโ€™s a place of knotty-pined cabins that burn a lot of propane gas as well as newer and some very large homes that likely use electricity.

The methodology of the researchers also examined the sources of electricity, and by that measure the heavy coal in the electrical mix bumped the figures higher. That area is served by a member cooperative of Tri-State Generation and Transmission or Xcel Energy, and in 2019 both were still very heavily invested in coal โ€” including coal burned at Pueblo.

One other detail: that same study found that a zip code in San Francisco, the bastion of woke politics, actually had the nationโ€™s lowest per-capita greenhouse gas emissions for buildings.

Details, details, details

That was par for the day. Just as important as who was at this energy summit and the information they shared was who was not there and what was not said.

The event was sponsored by Action Colorado, formerly known as Colorado 22, a reference to the counties of southwestern Colorado and the San Luis Valley that are included. Think of it as patterned after the much older Club 20.

The morning agenda had various speakers, but most notable was a defense of natural gas in buildings. The afternoon was almost entirely about the promise of nuclear energy.

Interspersed through the day were speakers from the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, or IBEW. They told about their lives and about their work. They spoke very well, very effectively. I spent eight years in Toastmasters trying to smooth my tongue of rusted iron into moments of silver. These guys were like professionals as they talked about growing up on ranches, about the dangers of working with electricity, about building better lives for themselves and their families.

The background question for the dayโ€™s conversation was what will happen when the last of Puebloโ€™s three coal-burning units becomes quiet. One of the three coal-burning units at Comanche Generating Station has closed, another will in 2025, and the third is to become silent no later than Jan. 1, 2031, as per the decision by the Colorado Public Utilities Commission.

(In my message to Big Pivots subscribers of June 13, I vaguely and imprecisely referred to 2030. To add some confusion, Gov. Jared Polis last week said 2029.)

What will replace the tax base and jobs in Pueblo and Pueblo County?

President Joe Biden visited the CW Wind factory in Pueblo, the worldโ€™s largest manufacture of towers for wind turbines, in November 2023. Photo/Allen Best

Pueblo is a river town, bisected by the Arkansas River. Itโ€™s a transportation hub for both highways and rail. It is above all a place that makes things. I am sure it has Ph.D.s among its 111,000 residents, but it has blue-collar DNA. Work gloves could be the cityโ€™s logo.

The steel mill was first and maybe even now remains foremost, hulks of rust rising above I-25 even as a new mill is now taking shape. The mill began producing rail in 1882, and thatโ€™s still the primary product, if the lengths have been extended to quarter-mile sections. It was called CF&I when I was young, and although I have no personal memories, Pueblo was still a rich ethnic stew in the mid-20th century, a cauldron of immigrants who labored under a film of coal smoke. You donโ€™t have to go far to find people whose fathers and grandfathers and perhaps great-grandfathers had walked to the mill, lunch buckets in hand, from their houses in the Bessemer and other close-by neighborhoods.

That includes the former mayor, Nick Gradisar, and the fellow I had lunch with at the conference, Joseph Griego. Gradisar, a former board chair for Action Colorado, the organization sponsoring this conference, had a vison of pivoting Pueblo to a green-energy economy. He was handily defeated in the election last year.

Some of that pivot, however, had already started before he even became mayor.

On Saturday morning, after the conference, I awoke in our motel room on Puebloโ€™s north side soon after daybreak and set out to get photographs. I drove south on I-25, pausing during shift change at the gates of the steel mill, which is now owned by EVRAZ North America. Based in London, majority ownership was held by Russian oligarchs, cronies of Putin, most notably Roman Abramovich, who alone owned between a quarter and a third of the company. Evraz said in 2022 after the Russian invasion of Ukraine that it would sell its North American assets, but nothing has come of that. As best I can tell, Putin cronies still have a stake in Pueblo.

Continuing south out of the city, I turned off from I-25 at the Stem Beach turnoff, then headed northeast on Lime Creek Road, putting Greenhorn Mountain in the rearview mirror.

Greenhorn was originally Cuerno Verde, the name given by Spanish colonizers to two leaders, the father and son, of a band of Comanches. They were known for their distinctive headdress.

The younger Cuerno Verde was killed there in 1779 by the Spanish troops led by Juan Batiste de Anza and their Apache, Ute and Pueblo allies. And with the Comanche weakened, the Great Plains in Colorado with their plentiful bison became more available to some other immigrants, the Cheyenne and Arapahoe.

The alignments of what became Colorado were, in the 18th century, as convoluted as they are in the 21st century, but the conflicts for the time being now draw only figurative blood. By that measure, these disagreements about the energy transition are mild indeed even if one former legislator at the Pueblo conference described the politics he left behind at the Colorado Capitol as โ€œtoxic.โ€

The Lime Creek Road constitutes Puebloโ€™s industrial alley. First in this sequence is the former wind turbine factory formerly owned by the Danish company Vesta but purchased in 2021 by CS Wind, a South Korean company. The factory produces towers that are 90 meters tall and weigh 240 tons. President Joe Biden was there last November to give a pep talk about the clean energy agenda.

A little farther along is a turnoff to another set of gray industrial buildings rising up from the plains, the GCC cement plant and limestone quarry, one of two remaining cement plants in Colorado with the recent closure of a plant at Lyons.

The day before, a speaker at the conference โ€“ in the morning, non-nuclear session โ€” representing a company called Carbon America, had spoken about the hopes to sequester carbon dioxide under cap rock in a geologic formation northeast of Pueblo. Two potential partners exist in the Pueblo area, this one and another near Florence. They manufacture cement from lime.

Carbon America sees carbon dioxide created in this process โ€“none of it through combustion โ€” as being one market for carbon sequestration along with the almost pure stream of carbon dioxide being emitted by corn ethanol plants. The companyโ€™s office is about a mile from my own in suburban Denver.

As I continued north, the three giant smokestacks of Comanche 3 rose higher. Before I got there, though, I first saw the low-rising rows of solar panels, a virtual sea of them amid the cacti.

The first solar farm, located directly east of the coal plant, was developed by Eric Blank, who has now become the chair of the Colorado Public Utilities Commission. Then, in 2021, completion of a far larger array of solar panels was completed. This project, Bighorn, was on land owned by Evraz around Comanche Station. It can generate 300 megawatts of direct current or 240 megawatts of alternating current. Through the artifice of credits, the solar production allows the steel mill to proclaim it has solar-made steel. (It also matters that the plant works with recycled steel, which requires less heat).

Still heading toward Comanche, I drove under transmission lines. whether generated by solar or for by coal units. However electricity is generated, it must be transmitted to metro Denver and wherever else. Will a nuclear plant transmit electricity at Comanche sometime in the 2030s?

The Pueblo area has Coloradoโ€™s two remaining limestone quarries and cement kilns, including this one along Lime Creek Road. Photo/Allen Best

The tone for the conference was set by the panel that followed Adam Frisch.

The panel consisted of representatives of three of Coloradoโ€™s four privately-owned utilities that sell methane, the primary constituent in natural gas, to consumers for building heat and water cooling.

Curbing methane emissions from Coloradoโ€™s buildings may be Coloradoโ€™s most difficult nut to crack. We donโ€™t swap out buildings the way we do cars or cell phones.

Ken Fogle is a marketing vice president for Atmos Energy, one of Coloradoโ€™s two regulated gas-only utilities, meaning that they donโ€™t also sell electricity. Black Hills Energy does sell both electricity and gas, but not necessarily in the same place. It was represented by Tom Henley, the senior public affairs director. And there was Michael Sapp, the state public affairs director for Xcel Energy, with sells both gas and electricity, and in largely the same areas.

The Monday prior to the conference, the Colorado PUC commissioners had issued their formal 141-page decision about Xcelโ€™s proposed clean heat plan. The PUC commissioners rejected a lot of Xcelโ€™s ideas.

The plan was in response to legislation adopted in 2021 that said that the gas utilities needed to figure out how to start reducing emissions from the natural gas they delivered to their customers for heating of space and water. Itโ€™s one of maybe a half-dozen bills taking aim at methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that the Environmental Defense Fund says is responsible for about 30% of todayโ€™s global warming driven by human action.

โ€œFor those of you donโ€™t know, natural gas has been kind of under the microscope, shall we say, for a number of years now down at the state capitol,โ€ said Black Hillsโ€™ Henley.

The panelists in Pueblo said they thought the clean-heat legislation adopted in 2021 required too much, too soon. A major grievance is that the legislation required a 4% reduction in emissions by 2025 compared to a 2015 baseline โ€“ but ignoring the role of population growth. In effect, said several panelists, this means a 20% reduction.

Nobody argued whether climate change is real or the role of greenhouse gas emissions in causing climate change. That debate has, at least formally, passed. The argument is whether the reduction goals are realistic.

Itโ€™s a legitimate question. But this was not a panel created to further the dialogue. Instead, aided by softball questions, the remarks drifted toward preserving the status quo. These are companies who donโ€™t want to change their business models in light of the evidence of climate change.

โ€œHow do we support legislators who favor an all-of-the-above energy mix,โ€ they were asked.

โ€œWeโ€™ve  got to talk to people that are electing their officials to make sure they know what their officials are doing in Denver,โ€ said Fogle, the Atmos representative. โ€œI donโ€™t think a lot of folks would agree with whatโ€™s happening in Denver when you go to these places like the Western Slope or Southeastern Colorado. I donโ€™t think theyโ€™d agree with whatโ€™s happening in Denver. So you got to get the people involved and activate the base.โ€

Then another question. โ€œDems control the House, Senate and governorโ€™s office, how do you navigate policies that are aimed at mandated, forced beneficial electrification, and what strategies do you try to deploy to work with that agenda?โ€

The key strategy that emerged in the remarks of panelists is to emphasize cost of adopting other technologies that will end the need for natural gas in buildings. Going electric is expensive, and natural gas is affordable. And thereโ€™s truth to that. Staying the course is the cheapest alternative. Cost can matter.

Ironically, along the way in this discussion about natural gas, there was a plug for nuclear. But when the agenda moved to nuclear that afternoon that cost almost entirely disappeared from the conversation.

That seems to be a pattern.

Former PUC commissioner Frances Koncilja explains the task force perspective as to what Pueblo needs after all the units in the Comanche Generating Station close. Photo/Allen Best

While some reading this might conclude otherwise, I am actually neutral about nuclear as a long-term solution. As Iโ€™ve written before, one of the leading climate change scientists, James Hansen, has embraced the need for nuclear. I know people in Boulder County โ€“ yes, in that place that many want to see as a hotbed of cross-breeding of privilege and wokeism โ€” who believe it is necessary.

It would certainly solve a lot of problems. Even now, 20% of U.S. power comes from nuclear power plants.

Then thereโ€™s the matter of Coloradoโ€™s declared intention of not leaving behind coal communities in this transition. Frances Koncilja, a former PUC commissioner, in 2023 co-chaired a task force created by Xcel Energy that produced a report in January. The Pueblo Innovative Energy Solutions Advisory Committee Report heartily recommended a nuclear power plant to replace Comanche.

Pueblo County has done its part to reduce emissions, she said. Pueblo County will be responsible for a 36% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by Xcel Energy and 20% statewide from the electric sector.

She emphasized the obligation of Colorado. โ€œJust transition means that coal communities should not only be no worse off with the closure of coal facilities but also replace the coal generation with high-paying and highly-skilled jobs and lost tax base so that coal communities have an opportunity to prosper, grow and reimagine their local economies.โ€

Koncilja did not specifically cite the 2019 law, which in my read is a little more fuzzy than how she  summarized it. Colorado does not owe Pueblo a one-for-one replacement.

The law says the โ€œeffects of coal plant closures on works and communities have the potential to be significant if not managed correctly.โ€ It also mentions the stateโ€™s intention to โ€œassist workers and communities impacted by changes in Coloradoโ€™s coal economy.โ€ It also mentions a โ€œmoral commitment.โ€

The Pueblo Innovative Energy Solutions Advisory Committee she co-chaired recommended nuclear because of the 300 jobs with a salary range of $60,000 to $200,000 and annual tax payments of $95 million. In 2021, Xcel and its two co-owners of Comanche 3, one of the coal-burning units, collectively paid $31 million.

She also pointed to strong comparisons in wealth to other counties in Colorado, specifically Aspen/Pitkin County, Vail/Eagle County, Boulder County and Denver.

Exploitation of fossil fuels has left Pueblo far, far behind these other locations.

One unit of Comanche Generating Station has ceased operation and the other two will before 2031 gets underway. Photo/Allen Best

The afternoon was rich with speakers with a wealth of information about different types of nuclear technology that are in some stage of development. There were many details, but almost entirely absent were those most useful for relevancy in Pueblo and Colorado altogether. That begins with cost.

One speaker said his companyโ€™s technology will be able to deliver electricity for 3 cents a kilowatt-hour โ€“ making it competitive with renewables. But, of course, it has not been deployed yet.

When the representative from nuclear powerhouse Westinghouse concluded, she took several questions. The first was: What is the cause of the most significant pushback you get?โ€ Cost, she replied.

Cost infamously rose to $35 billion, more than double original projections, on the two Vogtle units that have come on line recently in Georgia.

But what about the advanced nuclear designs? True enough, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in early 2023 approved the design of small modular reactors. But NuScale, the company that had sought the approval for deployment at Idaho Falls, just a few months later cancelled the order. The problem? Escalating costs.

Can Bill Gates disprove us naysayers? He was in Wyoming on Monday to help break ceremonial ground for a nuclear plant near the site of a coal plant at Kemmerer. The company has a pending application with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the plant design. Gates and company hope for completion in 2030, a brisk pace.

Gates has put in $1 billion into TerraPower and the U.S. Department of Energy has $2 billion promised for the project. Gates, in an interview on Face the Nation on Sunday morning (see transcript), said he expects to invest several billion more. He estimated completion price at $10 billion. He also said he hopes to 100 projects using the same nuclear technology โ€œto really make an impact.โ€

A sea of solar panels exists around Comanche Generation Station along with many transmission lines that export the power to Xcel Energyโ€™s customers. Photo/Allen Best

In a seminar several weeks before, Duane Highley, chief executive of  Tri-State Generation and Transmission, said he thought the price will not be bent down until about 2035 or beyond to a point where it can be justified for his members in places like the San Luis Valley and the corn-and-millet and wheat-and-ranch country of eastern Colorado.

To be fair, Highley said the cost of geothermal for electrical production is no better at this point. The comparison may not be the most useful. The technologies compete in two different cost arenas. Simply put, nuclear is a bigger gamble, the entry bid at a higher level.

But the larger point is that we have a whole host of technologies competing to be the final answer to 100% emissions-free energy โ€” and nuclear is just one.

So why the bandwagon for nuclear? Will Colorado really throw cost considerations out the window and became the test lab for advanced nuclear technologies?

Highley, in his interview,(which you can read elsewhere in this issue), said he wished the federal government would bankroll the next-generation nuclear technology, such as for use on military bases. That would get us over this gigantic hump of price.

It would still leave us with puddles of radioactive waste hither and thither with that huge issue unresolved. Our past recklessness in places such as Rocky Flats, between Arvada and Boulder, leaves many uncomfortable.

And finally, there is this question: Why do nuclear advocates in Colorado think they can continue to make their case without addressing these hard questions.

The best I can figure is that nuclear has become a stand-in for coal and a political statement that borders on religion. Because Aspen, Boulder  and Denver likes renewables, we need to be for nuclear. Thatโ€™s why I found the talking points of the congressional candidate from Aspen so interesting. (And, to be honest, speaking to a Pueblo crowd and leading with the fact that youโ€™re from Boulder likely would not be the wisest way to introduce yourself).

But what was Xcel Energy up to in creating this task force? What did it truly hope to accomplish? A mere distraction, a way to gain leverage against the Democratic majority at the Colorado Capitol?

Iโ€™m still scratching my head. I probably will be still until Xcel submits its proposal to the PUC in five weeks.

#Colorado Attorney General Phil Weiser: Supreme Court ruling threatens to create regulatory uncertainty, higher costs and greater harms

Perchlorate Pollution by State

Click the link to read the release on the Colorado Attorney General’s website:

June 28, 2024

Attorney General Phil Weiser released the following statement regarding todayโ€™s U.S. Supreme Court decision overruling 40 years of regulatory law precedent:

โ€œUnder 40 years of precedent known as the Chevron doctrine, the Supreme Court has given reasonable deference to federal agencies to implement statutes passed by Congress, notably, when a statute is unclear. As the court has consistently acknowledged, it is impossible for Congress to legislate every detail needed to carry out and enforce complex laws.

โ€œWith todayโ€™s opinion inย Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, the Supreme Court appoints itself as the super regulator. The court says that it knows better than highly trained experts when it comes to protections for the air we breathe, the water we drink, public lands, worker safety, food and drug safety, public safety, disaster relief, public benefits, or any other regulation that affects American lives. [ed. emphasis mine] The courtโ€™s decision in this case threatens to create regulatory uncertainty for businesses, government agencies, and everyday Americans. As a result, it promises not only confusion, but also higher costs and greater harms. Rather than clarifying the scope of the Chevron doctrine, the court chose to sow chaos and uncertainty.

โ€œTodayโ€™s decision does not impact state regulations promulgated under Colorado state law. The Department of Law will continue to work with state agency partners to implement and enforce state regulations.โ€

Colorado was part of a coalition of state attorneys generalย that filed a court brief defending the Chevron doctrineย in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo.

U.S. Supreme Court flips precedent that empowered federal agencies — #Colorado Newsline

Atlantic herring. Credit: NOAA Fisheries/Calvin Alexander

Click the link to read the article on the Colorado Newsline website (Jacob Fischler):

June 28, 2024

The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a precedent Friday that had for decades limited judicial power to strike executive branch regulations, in a decision immediately criticized for potentially undermining decisions by scientists and agency experts.

The 6-3 and 6-2 decisions in two cases brought by fishing operators in New Jersey and Rhode Island challenged a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration rule and overturned the principle known as Chevron deference.

That precedent gave federal agencies broad discretion to use their judgment to resolve any ambiguity Congress left in a federal statute.

The courtโ€™s six conservatives reasoned that courts โ€œroutinely confront statutory ambiguitiesโ€ that have nothing to do with the authority of regulatory agencies, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion.

โ€œOf course, when faced with a statutory ambiguity in such a case, the ambiguity is not a delegation to anybody, and a court is not somehow relieved of its obligation to independently interpret the statute,โ€ Roberts wrote.

Under the 40-year-old precedent, courts gave up their interpretive role and deferred to agencies, Roberts wrote.

But they shouldnโ€™t, he added. Judges should apply their own legal reasoning to reach a sound decision.

โ€œCourts instead understand that such statutes, no matter how impenetrable, do โ€”  in fact, must โ€” have a single, best meaning.โ€

1984 ruling overturned

The decision overturned Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council, a 1984 Supreme Court ruling that said courts must defer to federal agenciesโ€™ expertise when considering legal challenges to a rule. The 1984 ruling significantly raised the bar for overturning an agency rule.

The precedent strengthened the executive branch under presidential administrations of both parties, but experts worry its reversal will strip agencies of the power to enact regulatory safeguards across a broad spectrum of issues including clean air and public health.

In a dissenting opinion, the courtโ€™s three liberals โ€” not including Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson in one of the cases, after she recused herself because sheโ€™d heard the case as an appeals court judge before joining the Supreme Court โ€” said the majority erred by misunderstanding the roles of three branches of government.

Congress knows it cannot โ€œwrite perfectly complete regulatory statutes,โ€ Justice Elena Kagan wrote in a dissent. Interpretation of those statutes is a given, and Congress usually prefers a โ€œresponsible agencyโ€ instead of a court.

Agencies are more politically accountable and have greater technical expertise in a given issue than courts, she wrote.

โ€œPut all that together and deference to the agency is the almost obvious choice,โ€ Kagan wrote.

Kagan went on to criticize the decision as a power grab by the judiciary at the expense of agency experts.

โ€œA rule of judicial humility gives way to a rule of judicial hubris,โ€ she wrote. โ€œIn one fell swoop, the majority today gives itself exclusive power over every open issue โ€” no matter how expertise-driven or policy-laden โ€” involving the meaning of regulatory law.โ€

Liberals see a weakening of safeguards

Liberal groups and elected Democrats worried the reversal will strip agencies of the power to enact strong regulatory safeguards across a broad spectrum of issues, especially climate and environmental regulations.

โ€œIt weakens our governmentโ€™s ability to protect us from the climate crisis, threats to worker safety, public health, clean air and water, safe medicines and food, a sound financial system, and more,โ€ Manish Bapna, president of the environmental group NRDC Action Fund, wrote in a statement.

โ€œTodayโ€™s reckless but unsurprising decision from this far-right court is a triumph for corporate polluters that seek to dismantle common-sense regulations protecting clean air, clean water and a livable climate future,โ€ Wenonah Hauter, the executive director of the advocacy group Food & Water Watch, said in a statement.

Rachel Weintraub, the executive director of the Coalition for Sensible Safeguards, a group that advocates for strong federal regulations, said in an interview before the decision was released that Chevron deference has allowed a host of regulations affecting consumer safety, labor, environmental protections and other issues.

โ€œThe important role that government plays in ensuring the health and safety of our families and the fairness of our markets could be undermined here,โ€ she said.

The ruling takes power away from the experts on a particular subject of a federal regulation โ€” traffic engineers at the Department of Transportation, disease experts at the Food and Drug Administration or scientists at the Environmental Protection Agency, for example โ€” and gives it to the federal judiciary, Weintraub said.

U.S. Rep. Raรบl Grijalva, an Arizona Democrat who is the ranking member on the U.S. House Natural Resources Committee, called the ruling a gift to polluters and the fossil fuel industry.

โ€œFor 40 years, Congress has passed laws with the understanding that the interpretation of those laws is for the courts, but the implementation laid in the hands of the scientific and policy career experts at our federal agencies,โ€ Grijalva said in a statement.

โ€œBut now, thanks to this extremist power-grab, our most fundamental protections will be at the whim of individual judges โ€” many of whom are far-right ideologues โ€” regardless of their lack of expertise or political agenda.โ€

Conservatives applaud rollback

Republicans in Congress and conservative activists praised the decision for weakening the administrative state, saying it would return power to the legislative branch.

โ€œThe Constitution vests Congress with the sole authority to make law,โ€ Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said in a statement. โ€œAfter forty years of Chevron deference, the Supreme Court made it clear today that our system of government leaves no room for an unelected bureaucracy to co-opt this authority for itself.โ€

Rep. Bruce Westerman, an Arkansas Republican who chairs the House Natural Resources Committee, said Fridayโ€™s ruling should spur Congress to write more prescriptive laws.

โ€œCongress has sidestepped our legal duties for far too long and todayโ€™s ruling puts us back in the driverโ€™s seat when it comes to rulemaking and regulatory authority,โ€ Westerman said in a written statement. โ€œWeโ€™re no longer going to let federal agencies fill in the details when it comes to the policies we enact.โ€

Roman Martinez, an attorney who argued on behalf of the Rhode Island fishing operators, called the ruling a โ€œwin for individual liberty and the Constitution.โ€

โ€œThe Court has taken a major step to shut down unlawful power grabs by federal agencies and to preserve the separation of powers,โ€ Martinez said in a statement distributed by the conservative public relations firm CRC Advisors. โ€œGoing forward, judges will be charged with interpreting the law faithfully, impartially, and independently, without deference to the government.โ€

No plans to reopen old cases

In the majority opinion, Roberts said the court did not plan to reopen cases that had been decided by Chevron โ€œdespite our change in interpretive methodology.โ€

Even prior to Fridayโ€™s decision, the court had used Chevron less often. During theย oral argument, Roberts cited a study that the court had relied on the precedent sparingly over the past 14 years.

The courtโ€™s conservative majority has shown a willingness to move away from deference to agency decision-making, demanding more explicit congressional instruction.

In West Virginia v. EPA in 2022, for example, the court ruled that the EPA lacked the authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate greenhouse gas emissions.

Daniel Wolff, an administrative law attorney at the law firm Crowell & Moring, downplayed the effect the ruling would have on the administrative state.

Congress at times explicitly directs agencies to craft regulations, and those rules will still be subject to the same standard that they were written reasonably, Wolff said in an interview prior to the decision.

Rules with solid legal and statutory foundations would survive under either standard, he said.

โ€œRolling back Chevron is simply going to mean agencies donโ€™t get the benefit of the doubt in the case of a tie,โ€ Wolff said. โ€œThey have to come into the court and persuade the court that they have the better reading of the statute.โ€

Fishing operators

The cases decided Friday was brought by herring fishing operators from New Jersey and Rhode Island who challenged a NOAA rule requiring the operators to pay for the federal monitors who regularly join fishing boats to ensure compliance with federal regulations.

The fishing operators said the rule forced them to hand over up to 20% of their profits.

After a lower court relied on Chevron deference to rule in favor of NOAA, oral arguments at the Supreme Court in January focused almost entirely on Chevron.

During a year of extremes, carbon dioxide levels surge faster than ever: The two-year increase in Keeling Curve peak is the largest on record — NOAA

Atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at NOAAโ€™s Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory peaked in May 2024 at a monthly average of 426.9 parts per million, establishing another high mark in the 66-year record of observations on the Hawaiian volcano. Credit: NOAA

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website (Theo Stein):

June 6, 2024

Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than ever โ€” accelerating on a steep rise to levels far above any experienced during human existence, scientists from NOAA and theย Scripps Institution of Oceanographyoffsite linkย at the University of California San Diego announced today.

This graph shows the full record of monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The carbon dioxide data on Mauna Loa constitute the longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. They were started by C. David Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in March of 1958 at the NOAA Weather Station on Mauna Loa volcano. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by Scripps since. (Image credit: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory)
CO2 measurements sending ominous signs

Scientists at Scripps, the organization that initiated CO2 monitoring at Mauna Loa in 1958 and maintains an independent record, calculated a May monthly average of 426.7 ppm for 2024, an increase of 2.92 ppm over May 2023โ€™s measurement of 423.78 ppm. For Scripps, the two-year jump tied a previous record set in 2020.

From January through April, NOAA and Scripps scientists said CO2 concentrations increased more rapidly than they have in the first four months of any other year. The surge has come even as one highly regarded international reportoffsite link has found that fossil fuel emissions, the main driver of climate change, have plateaued in recent years.

โ€œOver the past year, weโ€™ve experienced the hottest year on record, the hottest ocean temperatures on record and a seemingly endless string of heat waves, droughts, floods, wildfires and storms,โ€ said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. โ€œNow we are finding that atmospheric CO2 levels are increasing faster than ever. We must recognize that these are clear signals of the damage carbon dioxide pollution is doing to the climate system, and take rapid action to cut fossil fuel use as quickly as we can.โ€ 

Ralph Keeling, director of the Scripps CO2 program that manages the institutionโ€™s 56-year-old measurement series, noted that year-to-year increase recorded in March 2024 was the highest for both Scripps and NOAA in Keeling Curve history. 

โ€œNot only is CO2 now at the highest level in millions of years, it is also rising faster than ever,โ€ said Keeling. โ€œEach year achieves a higher maximum due to fossil-fuel burning, which releases pollution in the form of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Fossil fuel pollution just keeps building up, much like trash in a landfill.โ€ 

These graphs compare the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in Mauna Loa and global records.The decadal average rate of increase of CO2 in the graphs on the right are depicted by the black, horizontal lines. (Image credit: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory)
Like a giant heat-trapping blanket

Like other greenhouse gases, CO2 acts like a blanket in the atmosphere, preventing heat radiating off of the planetโ€™s surface from escaping into space. The warming atmosphere fuels extreme weather events, such as heat waves, drought and wildfires, as well as heavier precipitation and flooding. About half of the carbon dioxide humans release into the air stays in the atmosphere. The other half is absorbed at Earthโ€™s surface, split roughly equally between land and ocean.

The record two-year growth rate observed from 2022 to 2024 is likely a result of sustained high fossil fuel emissions combined with El Nino conditions limiting the ability of global land ecosystems to absorb atmospheric CO2, said John Miller, a carbon cycle scientist with NOAAโ€™s Global Monitoring Laboratory. The absorption of CO2 is changing the chemistry of the ocean, leading to ocean acidification and lower levels of dissolved oxygen, which interferes with the growth of some marine organisms.

A longstanding scientific partnership

For most of the past half century, continuous daily sampling by both NOAA and Scripps at Mauna Loa provided an ideal baseline for establishing long-term trends. In 2023, some of the measurements were obtained from a temporary sampling site atop the nearby Mauna Kea volcano, which was established after lava flows cut off access to the Mauna Loa Observatory in November 2022. With the access road still buried under lava, staff have been accessing the site once a week by helicopter to maintain the NOAA and Scripps in-situ CO2 analyzers that provide continuous CO2 measurements. 

Scripps geoscientist Charles David Keeling initiated on-site measurements of CO2 at NOAAโ€™s Mauna Loa weather station in 1958. Keeling was the first to recognize that CO2 levels in the Northern Hemisphere fell during the growing season, and rose as plants died in the fall. He documented these CO2 fluctuations in a record that came to be known as the Keeling Curveoffsite link. He was also the first to recognize that, in addition to the seasonal fluctuation, CO2 levels rose every year. 

NOAA climate scientist Pieter Tans spearheaded the effort to begin NOAAโ€™s own measurements in 1974, and the two research institutions have made complementary, independent observations ever since. 

While the Mauna Loa Observatory is considered the benchmark climate monitoring station for the northern hemisphere, it does not capture the changes of CO2 across the globe. NOAAโ€™s globally distributed sampling network provides this broader picture, which is very consistent with the Mauna Loa results. 

The Mauna Loa data, together with measurements from sampling stations around the world, are incorporated into the Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, a foundational research dataset for international climate scientists and a benchmark for policymakers attempting to address the causes and impacts of climate change.

427.43 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in air 13-Jun-2024 — @KeelingCurve

Plenty of outrage. Was it justified?– Allen Best (@BigPivots) #coal #ActOnClimate

Trains load with Powder River Basin coal at the Black Thunder Mine in May 2011. Photo/Allen Best

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

May 30, 2024

Wyoming politicos were furious, some enviros elated. But the Biden administration decision about Powder River coal leasing actually had no real consequence. Hereโ€™s why in a richer, deeper read.

Hisses and cheers, outrage and elation. These were predictable responses when the Biden administration announced that it plans no new leasing for coal in the Powder River Basin.

Wyomingโ€™s congressional delegation had their usual talking points. Sen. John Barrasso called it part of President Joe Bidenโ€™s war on Wyoming.

โ€œThis will kill jobs and could cost Wyoming hundreds of millions of dollars used to pay for public schools, roads, and other essential services in our communities,โ€ Barrasso said in a statement. โ€œCutting off access to our strongest resource surrenders Americaโ€™s greatest economic advantages โ€” to continue producing affordable, abundant, and reliable American energy.โ€

Other politicos from Wyoming echoed his words. This will cause the United States to become dependent on energy from other countries. It will create more pollution in other countries who donโ€™t have access to Wyomingโ€™s clean coal. And so forth.

My e-mail revealed some hurrahs from those in the environmental camp. โ€œWow,โ€ said one individual. Organizations were supportive but more restrained. โ€œA monumental decision,โ€ said an individual from Earthjustice.

My take? It was a decision without consequence. Several people in Wyoming confirmed my reaction.

Provided to YouTube by CDBaby Wyoming Wind ยท Terry Yazzolino & Dan Thomasma Good Medicine โ„— 2007 Medicine Tree Music Released on: 2007-01-01

โ€œThis is a symbolically significant decision for the climate but in terms of practicality it means absolutely nothing,โ€ Shannon Anderson, the staff attorney for the Powder River Basin Resource Council in Sheridan, Wyo., told me.

At current rates of extraction, coal companies that mine in the Powder River Basin have enough deposits to continue mining until 2041, she pointed out, citing research by the Bureau of Land Management. The BLM, the federal agency, is responsible for leasing coal from the subterranean land. It does so only in response to proposals from mining companies. In other words, the companies must ask to mine more coal. They havenโ€™t done so lately.

None have done so since 2012. Two pending leases have stalled since 2015, awaiting action by the companies. The door was open for a long time without any coal companies walking in.

โ€œIt doesnโ€™t make sense to make federal land available for coal leasing if the coal industry doesnโ€™t want that land,โ€ said Anderson.

In its announcement of the end of new coal leases in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming, the BLM noted that coal continues to be extracted from 12 surface mines in the field. They produced 220 million short-tons of coal in 2022, compared to 400 million tons in 2008, the peak year for coal extraction in both the Powder River Basin and the United States altogether.

Coal trains two-abreast wound their way through Denverโ€™s LoDo district in March 2018. Demand from Colorado power plants for Powder River Basin coal has already slackened and will cease altogether before 2031. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Paramount is the decline in demand for coal. Weโ€™re burning less coal but thatโ€™s not because it is less available. Rather, itโ€™s because we have cheaper alternatives and ones that produce fewer or no greenhouse gas emissions.

Colorado burns Powder River Basin coal, but not as much as it once did. Two coal-burning units went down in 2022, one in Pueblo and the second in Colorado Springs.

Two more at Pueblo will follow plus one near Colorado Springs (Nixon), and one north of Fort Collins (Rawhide). Near Brush, the Pawnee coal plant will be converted to natural gas no later than 2026.

All burn Powder River coal, and all will be closed by the end of 2030, perhaps earlier.

On X, the social media platform, I noticed the reaction of Larry Wolfe, who lives in Cheyenne and was for 30 years an attorney specializing in energy with legal heavyweight Holland and Hart.

โ€œYou are not watching the news, John (Barrasso), the coal industry is going out of business,โ€ he had written the day after the announcement. โ€œThey donโ€™t need new leases. They donโ€™t have the demand for the coal they already own. Down 20% this year, with the companies forecasting 10% annual declines. Done in WY in 10 years or less.โ€

I called Wolfe to get a keener understanding of Wyoming coal and energy more broadly.

โ€œIf you are going to be realistic about this, you have to look at some of these coal companies,โ€ he told me. โ€œTheyโ€™re not great companies anymore. They used to be โ€” Peabody and Arch and a couple of others. They are not great companies anymore.โ€

Arch and Peabody were among the 60 coal companies who declared bankruptcy between 2012 and 2020. In addition to mines in the Powder River Basin, they also have mines in Colorado.

Colorado for a couple years had the coal equivalent of man bites dog. A company had reopened a mine west of Trinidad. Then it, too, closed. My research suggests limited coal mining in northwest Colorado beyond 2028, when the last power plant there closes.

West Elk, near Paonia, the stateโ€™s largest producer, which is owned by Arch Resources, may last longer. It has reserves of 10 to 12 years at current rates of extraction. It produces about one-tenth the volume of the companyโ€™s Black Thunder Mine in the Powder River Basin.

See: โ€œColoradoโ€™s biggest and smallest coal mines,โ€ Big Pivots, Feb. 18, 2023.

The West Elk Mine near Paonia in March 2022. Photo/Allen Best

On the campaign trail in 2016, Donald Trump promised to bring back โ€œclean, beautiful coal.โ€ He didnโ€™t.

In November 2020, after the election, S&P Global Market Intelligence recalled Trumpโ€™s campaign vow. Instead, said S&P, a market analyst, coal jobs had declined 24% during his presidency. In leaving the White House he will likely leave the nation with the โ€œlowest coal production and job figures in recent history.โ€

Coal undeniably benefited Wyoming. Wyoming accumulated $2 billion in just coal lease bonuses. The money was used to upgrade almost every school in the state, says Wolfe. That went away after about 2015-2016.

The hard-right component of the Republican Party of Wyoming professes to believe that the world around Wyoming has not changed except for the lunk-headed Democrats in Washington D.C. and maybe wayward states like Colorado.

Gov. Mark Gordon, also a Republican, has a more moderate view. He wants to see carbon capture and sequestration technology emerge as the answer that will allow Powder River coal to have a future. There are several coal plants near Gillette and, of course, Powder River coal for decades was delivered to power plants as far away as Georgia.

In his year as chair of the Western Governors Association, Gordon has made CCS (also called carbon capture storage and utilization, or CCSU) his key initiative, the way that Colorado Gov. Jared Polis the prior year had made geothermal his key initiative.

Wyoming also adopted a law that required its coal plants to test carbon capture.

In Colorado, the Polis administration sees a more limited role for carbon capture, such as for sequestering emissions from ethanol plants. Tri-State Generation and Transmission also proposes a new natural gas plant in concert with carbon capture technology.

The Colorado Land Board seems to think this can constitute a revenue stream in years ahead. It has already leased lands near Yuma, Pueblo, and in Weld County.

With his eye on Wyoming, Wolfe is skeptical the technology will pan out.

โ€œCarbon capture doesnโ€™t work very well. Itโ€™s not any kind of salvation. The trouble the carbon capture people have is they want to put this technology on old (coal) generation stations that have outlived their useful lives.โ€

Doing so will require spending perhaps a  half-billion dollars per plant. And that will mean having to operate the coal plants for another 30 to 50 years to monetize the additional cost.

Wolfe calls it one of those โ€œlittle naughty problems that lawyers bring up that people donโ€™t want to talk about, but which are very real.โ€

Electric utilities โ€œhave been passing along research costs to consumers, and those costs have been tolerable. But they have to start making major investments about how to figure out everything,โ€ says Wolfe. โ€œThe consumers will just go ballistic, because they wonโ€™t want to absorb the cost of what is likely to be a unproductive technology.โ€

Can carbon capture and sequestration technology be demonstrated to be economically feasible at the Jim Bridge Station in southwestern Wyoming? Photo/Allen Best

Jim Bridger, Wyomingโ€™s largest coal plant, has a capacity of almost 2,442 megawatts โ€” alone equal to the four coal plants on Coloradoโ€™s Eastern Slope. It has been identified as among the coal plants that may get retrofitted with carbon capture equipment.

WyoFileโ€™s Dustin Bleizeffer, in an April 2, 2024, story, reported that two electric utilities were planning advanced engineering studies and analysis of potentially retrofitting  Bridgerโ€™s four coal-burning units. Wyoming ratepayers, he reported, were already paying more than $3 million annually for the initial phases of study but will soon be paying $10 million to $20 million โ€” โ€œwith no guarantee that a single coal plant might ultimately be retrofitted with the technology.โ€

In 2023, he reported, Rocky Mountain Power had estimated a cost of $1 billion per coal unit to install the technology. Another utility, Black Hills Energy, had reported the cost of retrofitting a power plant near Gillette called Wygen II at between $500 million and $668 million. The company in 2008 had estimated the cost at $182.5 million, or the equivalent of $268 in current dollars).

See: โ€œDespite staggering costs and logistic challenges, carbon capture studies at Wyoming coal plants advance.โ€

Where might the demand for coal-fired power come from? Cheyenne has been loading up on data centers. They can be seen while driving west from Cheyenne on Interstate 80. Microsoft has two and Meta just weeks ago was revealed to be the company behind a 945-acre data center development in Cheyenne. An 800,000-square-foot facility is planned.

Low electricity costs and Cheyenneโ€™s coolish temperatures โ€“ spring comes about a month after it does in Denver just 100 miles to the south โ€“ help explain the draw. Resource adequacy could conceivably revive the coal market somewhat, although a safer bet would be on natural gas.

The same questions are starting to be asked in Colorado. The stateโ€™s energy office estimates that demand for electricity will increase 50% by 2040.

Wolfe predicts a cascading decline for Powder River coal. Multiple mines will close, leaving just a few that will be highly efficient, using autonomous mining machinery. Railroads โ€“ essential to delivery of Powder River coal โ€“ will lose interest in serving the much-diminished industry. โ€œThey will be wanting to repurpose the engines,โ€ says Wolfe.

โ€œThis notion of a sort of glide path down, I wouldnโ€™t count on that for a moment. If you have a couple of back-to-back winters that are really warm and the utilities are maintaining large stockpiles, the companies are going to get into desperate straits.โ€

Coal

Biden wages a war on #coal-burning. Really!: But supports U.S. #uranium mining with Russia import ban — Jonathan P. Thompson (www.landdesk.org)

Okay, it isnโ€™t the Powder River Basin, but it is a coal mine: The West Elk near Somerset, Colorado. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

BIG NEWS: On May 16, the Bureau of Land Management proposed ending new federal coal leasing in the Powder River Basin in Wyoming and Montana, which is by far the nationโ€™s largest coal-producing region. The announcement comes on the heels of the finalization of a trio of more stringent rules for power plants. Together, the two moves could one day substantially diminish coal-fired electricity generation in the U.S., if not wipe it out altogether.

CONTEXT: Can we please stop accusing President Biden of โ€œclimate indifferenceโ€ โ€” and worse? I mean, seriously, folks: He may not have ended oil and gas drilling on public land, but he is standing up to the fossil fuel industry more potently than any president before him. 

Granted, this is not a ban on coal mining. The gargantuan mines of the Powder River Basin will continue to churn out the carbon-intensive fuel for years. But when they deplete their current lease areas, which is expected to occur between 2035 and 2060, depending on the mine and region, they wonโ€™t be able to expand. That could potentially keep more than 48 billion tons of coal in the ground that otherwise would be mined and burned, thereby avoiding a heck of a lot of greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutant-spewing.

โ€œThis decision opens new doors to a future where our public lands are not sacrificed for fossil fuel profits and, instead, can prove a bulwark of ecological and community resilience in the face of a warming climate,โ€ saidย Erik Schlenker-Goodrich, executive director of the Western Environmental Law Center, in a written statement.

The coal industry, as one might expect, is enraged, as are Wyoming and Montana leaders. Even Sen. Jon Tester, the Montana Democrat running for re-election against a full-blown climate change denier, is pushing back and considering ways to kill the plan. You can count on lawsuits challenging the plan, but keep in mind that the proposed leasing halt is the outcome of environmentalists challenging a Trump-era land-use plan.

Thing is, if the coal-burning industry continues to follow current trajectories, it may have perished on its own by the time this leasing ban kicks in. Yes, the Big Breakdown of coal has faltered somewhat in places: Rocky Mountain Power recently announced it was extending the life of some of its coal plants, for example. But itโ€™s still underway as can be seen in the Powder River Basin, where first quarter 2024 coal production was more than 20% lower than a year earlier.

Coal-burning is going bye-bye, one way or another. Instead of trying to fend off the inevitable, local and state officials would be far better off seeking alternatives and ways to ensure that the transition is just and less painful.

Waste rock from the Sunday Mine Complex near Slick Rock, Colorado. Western Uranium & Vanadium hopes to start producing ore here in the next year or so. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

On May 13, President Biden signed into law the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act, which does exactly what it says: bans imports of low-enriched uranium from Russia or Russian entities. And the domestic uranium mining industry is radiating with joy (see what I did there?) over the possibility it will boost efforts to reopen long-idled mines in the West. 

Sen. John Barrasso, the Republican from Wyoming, first introduced the legislation back in 2022, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, as a way to cut off funding for Putinโ€™s war machine. Sen. Ted Cruz put it on ice, purportedly to get his way with some other legislation, but finally removed his hold on it this spring. And, despite the MAGA GOPโ€™s growing fondness for Putin, the bill finally made it through the House and Senate earlier this year before heading to Bidenโ€™s desk.

This is a big deal because U.S. utilities currently get almost all of their nuclear reactor fuel, i.e. uranium, from non-domestic suppliers. In 2022, about 12% of U.S. uranium purchases โ€” or 4.9 million pounds of it โ€” came directly from Russia. And another 25%, or some 10 million pounds, came from Kazakhstan, where the mines are mostly operated byย Uranium One, a subsidiary of the Russian state-owned firm Rosatom. Uranium One also operates in Namibia and Tanzania. (Uranium One formerly owned mines and in-situ operations in Wyoming, too, but sold out of the U.S. in 2021).ย 

In other words, the ban potentially creates a 15-million-pound gap between supply and demand that must be filled to keep reactors running. And domestic suppliers are scrambling to fill the void by reopening long-idled mines and constructing new ones in Utah, New Mexico, Arizona, Wyoming, and Colorado. Energy Fuels โ€” which owns the White Mesa uranium mill in southeastern Utah, the Pinyon Plain near the Grand Canyon, and several other projects in Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming โ€” was giddy over the ban, tweeting: โ€œWe stand ready to help supply the #nuclear market with responsibly produced US #uranium.โ€ 

As the Land Desk has written before, much of the talk of a uranium mining renaissance is merely hype intended to mine investorsโ€™ bank accounts more than to extract actual ore. And most of the press releases about this or that upcoming firmโ€™s latest exploratory drilling results are just a bunch of ballyhoo. Even if they do pan out, it wouldnโ€™t be until years or even decades from now. 

But the import ban, paired with sustained high uranium prices โ€” around $90 per pound for the past six months โ€” certainly will shoot some adrenalin into the figurative veins of established producers, which have been in a zombie state for the past several years. Energy Fuels, for instance,ย reportsย that it is producing uranium ore at its Pinyon Plain (Arizona) and La Sal and Pandora (Utah) mines, though it is stockpiling the rock for now rather than shipping it to its Utah mill for processing. The company is also preparing its Nichols Ranch (Wyoming) mine for production as well as its Whirlwind Mine, which lies along the Colorado-Utah state line on the eastern slopes of the La Sal Mountains outside of Gateway.

But even Energy Fuelsโ€™ outlook is tempered: They say theyโ€™ll start shipping ore, start producing at other mines, and ramp up permitting for other projects, if market conditions remain strong. And they may not. Miners in Canada and Australia may respond to the high prices and the Russia ban by substantially ramping up production and exports to the U.S., which would dampen prices and make it once again unfeasible for American mines to operate. 

But in the short-term, it appears that uranium country is going to experience at least a mild mining resurgence. And itโ€™s happening under some of the same mining laws that failed to mitigate the devastating impacts of past booms. 

See where the hypeโ€™s all about at the Land Desk Mining Monitor Map. 

๐Ÿ  Random Real Estate Room ๐Ÿค‘

One of the ways I like to procrastinate โ€” er, learn new things โ€” is to cruise around the West via Zillow in search of the last affordable place to buy a home. Usually I donโ€™t find much. But last week, theย Los Angeles Timesย did my work for me by publishing a list of the only towns in the state where the median home sale price is $150,000 or less. LA Times staffer Terry Castletonย writes:

Damn, I thought, these sound like some nice little secret gems! So I read on. These are some of the towns they came up with: Trona, Dorris, Macdoel, Tulelake, Boron, Yermo, Hinkley, Johannesburg.

Now, you might be thinking: Why is this jerk sharing this? Isnโ€™t he worried the towns will be overrun and gentrified if the word gets out?

Well, no, Iโ€™m not too worried. First of all, it already appeared in a very big newspaper. Second of all, Iโ€™m not sure most of these towns are prime candidates for gentrification. I mean, consider Trona: a tiny little place sandwiched between an old coal plant/soda ash processing facility and a sprawling borax evaporation ponds.

Trona, California, from the sky. Itโ€™s still affordable and wonderful for folks who want to live in an industrial site. Source: Google Earth.

Hereโ€™s a sampling of homes on the market in Trona:

So, yeah, not bad prices, really. Especially considering that beyond the industrial facility is a bunch of desert expanse that Iโ€™m sure is beautiful.

Yermo, also on the list, looks similar, but itโ€™s far less remote. And the LA Times story seems to have gone to its head, real estate-wise. The four homes on the market arenโ€™t all that cheap (between $175k and $229k) โ€” possibly due to its proximity to that desert gem of a city, Barstow. Ditto with Hinkley, famous for being the polluted place in Erin Brokovich. Yay.

I actually considered moving to Boron, another one on the list, after I graduated from college. The local high school was desperate for teachers and willing to hire folks without a teaching certificate. It was tempting, I must admit, especially for a desert rat like myself who could appreciate the sublimity of living on the edge of an open pit borax mine. Thing is, a lot of the land around there is an air force base, and the mountains are kind of far away, limiting exploration. I demurred.

Anyway, itโ€™s worth checking out the other towns on the list if youโ€™re seeking something affordable. They may be the only places left in all the Western U.S.

Feds to end coal leasing in #PowderRiver Basin, nationโ€™s largest source of coal: The U.S. Bureau of Land Managementโ€™s decision to end future #coal leasing in the region is likely to be challenged — @WyoFile #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Arch Resources’ Black Thunder mine in the Powder River Basin. (Alan Nash)

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

May 16, 2024

In a historic move, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management has proposed ending federal coal leasing in the Powder River Basin. The region, which extends from northeast Wyoming to southern Montana, is the nationโ€™s largest coal supplier, and for 50 years a pillar of Wyomingโ€™s economy.

The federal agency on Thursday issued its final supplemental environmental impact statement and proposed amendment to its Buffalo Field Office land use plan, selecting a โ€œno future coal leasing alternative.โ€ Mining companies can still develop their existing federal coal leases, which would allow for the regionโ€™s current rate of production to continue through 2041, according to the agencyโ€™s estimates.

The BLM was required by court order to rework its land use plan updates for the Buffalo, Wyoming and Miles City, Montana field offices after local conservation groups successfully argued it had not fully considered environmental, climate and human health impacts resulting from further coal leasing in the region. The agencyโ€™s action this week opens a 30-day โ€œprotestโ€ period, and a final order is due later this year.

To submit a written protest, visit the BLMโ€™s Filing a Plan Protest page for instructions. Protests must be submitted by June 17.

Though the Powder River Basin coal industry has been in decline since 2008, the BLMโ€™s decision โ€” even if it is defeated by legal challenges โ€” sends a strong signal to the industry, as well as Wyoming and Montana leaders, that mining in the region will come to an end, said Shannon Anderson, attorney for the Sheridan-based landowner advocacy group Powder River Basin Resource Council.

โ€œThis recognizes the reality of where things are headed and provides us certainty,โ€ Anderson told WyoFile. โ€œIt also provides the opportunity to responsibly close these mines to ensure reclamation gets done.โ€

Coal trucks prepare to dump their payload at Arch Resourcesโ€™ Black Thunder coal mine in northeast Wyoming. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Wyomingโ€™s congressional delegates blasted the decision.

โ€œThis will kill jobs and could cost Wyoming hundreds of millions of dollars used to pay for public schools, roads, and other essential services in our communities,โ€ Sen. John Barrasso, a Republican and vocal industry advocate, said in a statement. โ€œCutting off access to our strongest resources surrenders Americaโ€™s greatest economic advantages โ€” to continue producing affordable, abundant, and reliable American energy.โ€

Retired Powder River Basin coal miner Lynne Huskinson, also a member of the Powder River Basin Resource Council and Western Organization of Resource Councils that challenged the BLM, applauded the agencyโ€™s decision.

โ€œAs someone who lives near some of the largest coal mines in the nation, Iโ€™m thankful for the leadership from the BLM in finally addressing the long-standing negative impacts that federal coal leasing has had on the Powder River Basin,โ€ Huskinson said in a statement. โ€œFor decades, mining has affected public health, our local land, air, and water, and the global climate. We look forward to BLM working with state and local partners to ensure a just economic transition for the Powder River Basin as we move toward a clean energy future.โ€

Wyoming coal production โ€” primarily in the Powder River Basin โ€” recently fell 20% with forecasts for lower-than-average demand for the rest of the year.

Despite declining demand, Wyoming Mining Association Executive Director Travis Deti believes cutting off coal leases will bring dire consequences. โ€œIn a time of deteriorating grid reliability and soaring electricity demand, make no mistake about it โ€” the lights are going out,โ€ Deti said in a prepared statement.

Gordon promises to sue

The BLMโ€™s coal leasing decision is the latest in a series of federal rules aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas and other pollutants from fossil fuels, earning accolades from environmental groups and ire from states dependent on coal, oil and natural gas production.

The actions hit particularly hard in Wyoming where the BLM manages 18 million surface acres and about 43 million acres of subsurface minerals, including the vast majority of coal in the Powder River Basin.

  • The agency recently released a draft managementย planย for sage grouse habitat that couldย further restrict oil and gas development.ย 
  • The BLM in March announced its โ€œfinal Methane Waste Ruleโ€ requiring oil and gas producers to curb greenhouse gas emissions from operations on federal and tribal lands โ€” designations that describe 70% of Wyomingโ€™s mineral acreage.
  • The agency is finalizingย another ruleย to put conservation on par with the โ€œmultiple-useโ€ doctrine guiding federal lands โ€” another threat to Wyomingโ€™s oil and gas industry, according to opponents.
  • The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in April issuedย four โ€œfinalโ€ rules aimed at drastically cutting coal pollution, including aย mandateย that existing coal-fired power plants cut or capture 90% of their planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions by 2032 or convert to natural gas or close altogether.

The culmination of Biden administration actions, according to Gov. Mark Gordon, appears to be a deliberate attack on fossil fuel jobs and the economies of energy-producing states.

Gov. Mark Gordon spoke with Advance Casper members Feb. 13 2024 in Casper. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

โ€œWith this latest barrage in President Joe Bidenโ€™s ongoing attack on Wyomingโ€™s coal country and all who depend upon it, he has demonstrated his lack of regard for the environment, for working people, and for reliable, dispatchable energy,โ€ Gordon said in a statement. โ€œThis decision [to end coal leasing], compounded by the recent EPA rules, ensures President Bidenโ€™s legacy will be about blackouts and energy poverty for Wyomingโ€™s citizens and beyond.โ€

Gordon promised to โ€œfully utilize the opportunities available to kill or modify this Record of Decision before it is signed and final.โ€

Praise for federal environmental actions

Environmental groups say the bold federal actions to curb planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions are long overdue.

โ€œThe only way to address the climate crisis is to transition to a renewable energy economy, and Americaโ€™s public lands are at the center of that transition,โ€ Center for Western Priorities Deputy Director Aaron Weiss said in a statement. โ€œWeโ€™re thankful to Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, BLM Director Tracy Stone-Manning, and all of the hard-working scientists and land managers who prepared these [Powder River Basin coal leasing] management plans.โ€

The main operations of the North Antelope Rochelle coal mine, as captured by satellite image. (Google Earth)

Conservation groups have also noted that the pollution reduction rules are accompanied by unprecedented spending via the Inflation Reduction and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs acts, injecting billions of dollars into communities throughout the nation, including funds that are specifically targeted to help energy communities transition away from fossil fuels.

Though many Wyoming communities are eager to take advantage of the federal dollars, theyโ€™ve struggled to muster the professional resources necessary to compete for them, while Gordon has rejected some of the federal programs.

Though coal has long powered the nation, markets are already adapting to cleaner forms of energy that will allow the nation to move beyond the greenhouse gas-emitting fuel, according to the Western Organization of Resource Councilsโ€™ Board Chair Paula Antoine.

โ€œBLMโ€™s announcement recognizes that coalโ€™s era is ending,โ€ Antoine said in a statement, โ€œand itโ€™s time to focus on supporting our communities through the transition away from coal, investing in workers, and moving to heal our lands, waters and climate as we enter a bright clean energy future.โ€

Coal

Carbon dioxide (COโ‚‚) levels set a new record high in April 2024 ~ 427 ppm — @ZLabe #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

0 years ago April averaged ~402 ppm. Preliminary data: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/

Academics and Lawmakers Slam an Industry-Funded Report by a Former Energy Secretary Promoting Natural Gas and LNG: “One has to distinguish between reality and wishful thinking” — Inside #Climate News #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Official photograph of [former] United States Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz. By Department of Energy – Office of the Secretary of the Department of Energy, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26224045

Click the link to read the article on the Inside Climate News website (Phil McKenna):

May 5, 2024

With a pair of fossil-fuel friendly senators at his side, former U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz on Tuesday released a favorable report on U.S. natural gas and liquified natural gas (LNG), funded by the natural gas industry.  

The report, โ€œThe Future of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon World,โ€ was written by the EFI Foundation, a nonprofit Moniz founded, and released at the U.S. Capitol. The report examined the role of natural gas in advancing energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability in the United States, Europe and Asia.

The EFI report comes at a pivotal moment for the U.S natural gas and LNG export industry. The Biden Administration paused the approval of new LNG export capacity in January while the Energy Department considers the climate and financial impacts to U.S. gas consumers of additional LNG exports. The document seeks to broaden the discussion on U.S. LNG exports. 

โ€œThe study, as youโ€™ll be hearing, examines the role of natural gas in addressing what is sometimes referred to as the โ€˜energy trilemmaโ€™: energy security, energy equity and environmental sustainability,โ€ said Moniz,ย president of the EFI Foundation and chair of the advisory committee that oversaw the report. โ€œUnfortunately, too often, the discussion around those three priorities tends to devolve into stovepipes, as opposed to recognizing that progress on all of them requires treating it as one conversation.โ€

One of the reportโ€™s specific recommendations was to include an โ€œenergy security determinationโ€ in evaluating future permits for additional U.S. LNG export capacity.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), the largest recipient of oil and gas money in Congress, and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), representing a state that derives a significant share of its revenue from oil and gas, joined Moniz as โ€œkeynoteโ€ speakers at the event.

Murkowski spoke of the need for an โ€œall of the aboveโ€ energy policy, which was the U.S. energy policy during the Obama administration when Moniz was Secretary of Energy.

Manchin called for lifting the pause on approvals for new LNG export capacity.

The report referred repeatedly to the โ€œessentialโ€ role of natural gas. 

The same day as the reportโ€™s release, Democrats in Congress released a report of their own, the culmination of a three-year investigation, concluding the oil and gas industry has misled Americans for decades about climate change.

โ€œThe fossil fuel industry engaged in an elaborate campaign of deception and doublespeak โ€ฆ as well as disinformation about the climate safety of natural gas and its role as a bridge fuel to a fossil-free future,โ€ the Democratsโ€™ report concluded.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), who released the report as chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, said the oil and gas industry seeks academic partnerships to legitimize its reports.ย 

โ€œDocuments explicitly discuss leveraging โ€˜third party endorsementsโ€™ and partnerships with academic institutions to bolster Big Oilโ€™s disinformation campaign,โ€ Whitehouse said in a written statement to Inside Climate News.

Referring explicitly to the new Moniz report on natural gas, Whitehouse said โ€œthis report is yet another example of the industry deceiving the public about the compatibility of continuedโ€”or even expandedโ€”production of natural gas with the scientific emission reduction targets we must achieve in order to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and avoid the very worst effects of climate change.โ€

A spokeswoman for Democrats on the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability added that industryโ€™s disinformation campaign โ€œcontinues to this day, including, as [Monizโ€™s] recent report shows, their portrayal of natural gas as a green and climate friendly fuel even though they have failed to address methane emissions associated with natural gas. We know that Big Oil is intent on entrenching natural gas into both the U.S. and global energy economies for the foreseeable future by any means necessary.โ€

Some climate researchers echoed her conclusion that the new report may be a continuation of industry-funded misinformation.  

โ€œMy concern is that Moniz isโ€”and perhaps has been since his time in the administrationโ€”an advocate for polluters over people and the planet,โ€ said Michael Mann, an earth and environmental science professor at the University of Pennsylvania and the director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media.ย 

โ€œIt strains credulity to believe this is a coincidence,โ€ Mann said of the reportโ€™s favorable view of natural gas, given its gas-industry funding. โ€œUnfortunately, the old adage โ€˜follow the moneyโ€™ seems quite relevant here.โ€

In addition to his role at EFI, Moniz is an emeritus professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a โ€œspecial advisorโ€ to MIT president Sally Kornbluth.

The EFI Foundation declined to respond publicly to criticisms of the report, and MIT did not respond to a request for comment.

The United States is the worldโ€™s largest exporter of LNG. Additional projects already approved by the Energy Department and not subject to the ongoing pause would triple existing U.S. export capacity. 

The pause followed the pre-release of a study that is still undergoing peer review by Robert Howarth, a professor at Cornell University.ย Howarthโ€™s studyย concluded the climate impact of LNG fuel is worse than burning coal.

Natural gas flares near a community in Colorado. Colorado health officials and some legislators agree that better monitoring is necessary. Photo credit the Environmental Defense Fund.

When burned, natural gas emits roughly half as much carbon dioxide as coal. However, methane, the primary component of natural gas, is a highly potent greenhouse gas, more than 80 times more effective at warming the planet than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. If even a small amount of methane is leaked, vented, or otherwise emitted into the atmosphere before the gas is burnedโ€”as it commonly isโ€”the climate impact of natural gas can be worse than that of other fossil fuels.

Whitehouse challenged the energy security claims in the Moniz report.

โ€œThere is no energy security for American families and businesses when the price of energy is determined by geopolitical events outside our control and by an industry that frequently engages in cartel-pricing,โ€ he said. โ€œTrue energy security will be achieved when we fully transition to renewable energy sources, the โ€˜fuelsโ€™ for whichโ€”wind, sunlight, flowing water, the earthโ€™s heatโ€”are free and not controlled by any one country or cartel.โ€

Nonetheless, the European Commissionโ€™s executive vice president for the European Green Deal, Maroลก ล efฤoviฤ, whose responsibilities include leading the European Commissionโ€™s work on becoming climate-neutral by 2050, praised the Moniz report in a video address shown at the release event.

โ€œNatural gas has a role to play as a transitional fuel, something reflected in the COP28 conclusions,โ€ ล efฤoviฤ said, referring to the 2023 U.N. climate conference in Dubai. โ€œIt will help ensure our energy security and energy equity as our economies decarbonize.โ€ 

โ€œSo with Europe, having taken decisive action to reach net zero by 2050 including by accelerating the clean energy transition, we also recognize the importance of natural gas, notably in the medium term, and LNG in particular will continue to represent a significant source of gas for the EU,โ€ ล efฤoviฤ added.ย 

Funders or โ€œsponsorsโ€ of the report, which was not peer-reviewed, included Chesapeake Energy, one of the largest independent gas producers in the U.S, and U.S. LNG export companies Venture Global LNG and Tellurian. The American Petroleum Institute and three other gas industry organizations or industry PR groups also provided funding.

Additional money came from the Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation, named after the late George P. Mitchell, who is often referred to as the โ€œfather of frackingโ€ for his role in developing the drilling technology known as hydraulic fracturing. The Institute of Energy Economics, a think tank in Japan, the worldโ€™s largest importer of LNG, also provided support.

The report states that the โ€œEFI Foundation maintains editorial independence from its public and private sponsors.โ€ However, more than half of the reportโ€™s โ€œadvisory committeeโ€ was comprised of individuals representing the reportโ€™s funders.

โ€œEFIโ€™s report reinforces more than a decadeโ€™s worth of independent and government-led research that has consistently shown the long-term role of natural gas in the global energy mix and its ability to accelerate global climate progress while strengthening global energy security,โ€ API spokesperson Scott Lauermann said.

Joseph Romm, a researcher also at the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media, said the reportโ€™s โ€œenergy trilemmaโ€ framing that looks at energy security, equity and environmental sustainability downplays the importance of climate change.

โ€œClimate is the overriding issue,โ€ Romm said. โ€œNot that the others arenโ€™t important, but if you donโ€™t do climate, the others donโ€™t matter.โ€

Romm noted that in 2018, the International Energy Agency, a global energy watchdog, concluded that the world could not afford to build any new carbon dioxide emitting projects if the planet were to stay within 2 degrees Celsius of warming, when compared to pre-industrial times. 

Six years later, there is even less room for new fossil fuel developments, Romm said.

The EFI report states that carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is an effective option for reducing CO2 emissions across the natural gas supply chain, even though to date such technology has never been successfully deployed at a commercial level. As the report notes, โ€œthere is no natural gas-fired power plant with CCUS in operation worldwide as of July 2023.โ€

The Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law have provided tax incentives and billions of dollars for large-scale carbon sequestration projects.   

โ€œYou shouldnโ€™t go around telling people that, โ€˜Oh, youโ€™re going to solve whatever your natural gas problem is with carbon capture, utilization and storageโ€™ when there isnโ€™t a single one in operation,โ€ Romm said. โ€œOne has to distinguish between reality and wishful thinking.โ€ [ed. emphasis mine]

The Moniz report also says that LNG shippers have started to offer their customers โ€œcarbon-neutral LNG cargo,โ€ in which emissions from LNG production are offset through the purchasing of carbon credits. 

Carbon offsets have come under increasing scrutiny in recent years as offset projects have failed to live up to their emission reduction claims. Even if the projects offset the emissions of LNG production, there would still be significant emissions when the fuel is burned.

The report acknowledges the climate impact of methane emissions associated with natural gas and says โ€œmethane emissions reductions are also critical.โ€ The report also notes that โ€œthe carbon footprint of natural gas, while lower than some alternatives, must be dramatically reduced furtherโ€ and โ€œovercoming these challenges will ultimately determine whether natural gas is indeed a transitional fuel or an integral part of the long-term global energy mix.โ€

In releasing the report, Moniz said the gas industry โ€œcan do a lot more in terms of having the pause be a pause by taking care of some of the homework that needs to be done,โ€ such as on methane emissions reductions. 

However, the report focuses less on methane emissions and more on the carbon dioxide emissions reductions that can be achieved by switching from coal to gas.

Interested in methane and other greenhouse gas emissions near you? Check out http://climatetrace.org, which allows you to see emissions from oil and gas fields, large individual facilities, and more. You can also break it down by industry.

Whitehouse said the focus on carbon dioxide emissions over methane emissions is misleading, intentional and not new.

โ€œInternal documents obtained in our recent investigation demonstrate that fossil fuel companies knew methane leaks made natural gas just as harmful to the climate as coal but sought to discredit the scientific evidence and paint natural gas as a clean fuel and a crucial part of the energy mix,โ€ Whitehouse said.

One such document obtained through the Congressional investigation was an August 2016 email from Amory Lovins, the cofounder and, at the time, chief scientist for the Rocky Mountain Institute, a clean energy and sustainability research organization now known as RMI. The email was addressed to Rex Tillerson, then the chief executive of ExxonMobil.

Tillerson had just been appointed the chair of the National Petroleum Council, a federal advisory committee to the Secretary of Energy, a position then held by Moniz.

Lovins, who served as an environmental representative on the council, warned Tillerson of increasing methane emissions monitoring by โ€œcitizen activists.โ€ He urged Tillerson, the countryโ€™s leading oil and gas executive, and his industry to โ€œget ahead of that emerging movementโ€ and โ€œfix the leaksโ€ before the โ€œsloppy operators further damage the good firmsโ€™ reputation.โ€

Another record obtained through the Congressional investigation isย a document from Chevron marked โ€œclassified,โ€ย which includes a presentation Lovins gave to the oil and gas companyโ€™s board of directors at a meeting in Pebble Beach, California, in 2018.

In the presentation, Lovins notes that the โ€œ#1 threat to gasโ€ is โ€œmethane โ€˜slip,โ€™โ€ or emissions. Lovins added that โ€œ2.3% of US gas output is now lostโ€ as emissions, making gas โ€œlittle/noโ€ better for the climate than burning coal. Lovins added that LNG is โ€œworseโ€ for the climate than coal.  

LNG has higher greenhouse gas emissions than natural gas due to the energy it takes to liquify and then regasify natural gas, not counting the additional methane emissions that occur during the transport of LNG in ships.

โ€œRMI experts routinely share their independent analysis and research with a variety of stakeholders, and in this case, we presented our understanding of the climate risks of methane to the oil and gas industry, in the hopes that the facts would lead to solutions,โ€ Lovins said in an email. โ€œThe facts presented then and subsequent research from RMI and peers have confirmed that leaks of methane, the main ingredient in natural gas, even at small amounts, make it as bad as or worse than coal for the climate and not necessarily the cleaner alternative it was once thought to be.โ€

Peer-reviewed studies published since 2018 suggest the climate impact of natural gas is worse than previously thought.ย A study published last month in Natureย found that 2.95 percent of U.S. gas output is emitted rather than the 2.3 percent figure Lovins used in 2018. For the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico, where much of the natural gas that is exported from the U.S. as LNG originates, emissions are far higherโ€”9.6 percentโ€”according to the Nature study.

Other factors, such as the use of a 20-year rather than 100-year timeframe for measuring the climate impact of methane, can result in an even smaller leak rate, making natural gas worse than coal. A study published last year in Environmental Research Letters by RMI researchers found a โ€œmethane leakage rate as low as 0.2 percent brings a gas systemโ€™s climate risk on par with coal.โ€

For Howarth, the Cornell professor, recent events elicit a sense of dรฉjร  vu. In 2011, Howarth published one of the first studies suggesting the climate impact of natural gas may be worse than coal. 

The same year, Moniz, then the director of the MIT Energy Initiative, was co-chair of a non-peer-reviewed Energy Initiative report funded largely by industry, โ€œThe Future of Natural Gas,โ€ a title nearly identical to the EFI report Moniz and colleagues published this week.

The 2011 report led by Moniz downplayed Howarthโ€™s findings and called for federal policies that โ€œencourage the development of a [global liquid natural gas] market.โ€

โ€œIt feels familiar,โ€ Howarth said of the new โ€œFuture of Natural Gasโ€ report. โ€œShale gas is clearly as bad or worse than coal, no matter what industry funded people want to spin.โ€ 

โ€œAnd even if I were wrong,โ€ Howarth added, โ€œItโ€™s just not the time to be promoting any fossil fuels.โ€

#Wyoming Files Two Lawsuits Challenging Biden Administrationโ€™s EPA Rules that Target Wyomingโ€™s #Coal Industry #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

This graph shows the globally averaged monthly mean carbon dioxide abundance measured at the Global Monitoring Laboratoryโ€™s global network of air sampling sites since 1980. Data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. Credit: NOAA GML

Click the link to read the release on Governor Gordon’s website:

May 9, 2024

CHEYENNE, Wyo. โ€“ Governor Mark Gordon announced that Wyoming has filed two lawsuits challenging new rules from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that target Wyomingโ€™s coal and natural-gas fired power plants. 

Today, Wyoming joined a coalition of 24 states challenging the Biden Administrationโ€™s recently released power plant regulations. The states argue that the new rule exceeds EPAโ€™s authority and ignores the United States Supreme Courtโ€™s 2022 decision vacating Obama-era greenhouse gas limits for power plants. The suit asks the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to review and declare the regulations unlawful.

On May 8, Wyoming and 22 other states filed a lawsuit challenging another EPA rule that would require certain air emissions from coal-fired plants to be reduced drastically, with no corresponding health benefits and with great costs to Wyoming and its industries.

โ€œThe Biden Administrationโ€™s EPA seems determined to use unlawful rulemaking to continue its attacks on Wyomingโ€™s core industries,โ€ Governor Gordon said. โ€œThe only goal appears to be destroying Wyomingโ€™s fossil fuel industry by further burdening our power plants, increasing costs to consumers, and threatening the stability of our nation’s electrical grid.โ€

#Vermont passes bill to charge #FossilFuel companies for damage from #ClimateChange

This graph shows the globally averaged monthly mean carbon dioxide abundance measured at the Global Monitoring Laboratoryโ€™s global network of air sampling sites since 1980. Data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. Credit: NOAA GML

Click the link to read the article on the NBC News website (Maura Barrettย andย Lucas Thompson). Here’s an excerpt:

May 7, 2024

Vermont lawmakers passed a bill this week that is designed to make big fossil fuel companies pay for damage from weather disasters fueled by climate change. The legislation is modeled after the Environmental Protection Agencyโ€™s superfund program, which requires the companies responsible for environmental contamination to either clean sites up themselves or reimburse the government for the costs of work to do so.ย  Vermontโ€™s bill, referred to as itsย Climate Superfund Act, would similarly mandate that big oil companies and others with high emissions pay for damage caused by global warming.

The amounts owed would be determined based on calculations of the degree to which climate change contributed to extreme weather in Vermont, and how much money those weather disasters cost the state. From there, companiesโ€™ shares of the total would depend on how many metric tons of carbon dioxide each released into the atmosphere from 1995 to 2024. The law passed with just three no votes in Vermontโ€™s state Senate in early April, followed by approval in the state House on Monday. The Senate will deliver a final vote later this week before the bill heads to Republican Gov. Phil Scottโ€™s desk.ย  State Sen. Anne Watson, a co-sponsor of the bill, said she hopes that if the law goes into effect, it pushes big oil companies โ€œto become purveyors of renewable energy sources and keep fossil fuels in the ground.โ€

#Wyoming Governor Gordon promises to sue after Environmental Protection Agency moves to slash #coal emissions — @WyoFile #ActOnClimate

Ceremonial shovels mark the location of the Innovation Center coal refinery field demonstration project north of Gillette on Sept. 2, 2022. It will be co-located with Atlas Carbon’s facility that produces activated carbon products. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the aricle on the WyoFile website (Dustin Bleizeffer):

April 26, 2024

Biden administrationโ€™s suite of coal pollution rules a win for climate and health, advocates say, but a major blow to one of Wyomingโ€™s bedrock economic drivers.

Gov. Mark Gordon has promised to sue over a new suite of federal rules that most observers agree will hasten the U.S. thermal coal industryโ€™s trajectory toward extinction โ€” an existential threat to many Wyoming communities and one of the stateโ€™s main economic drivers.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday issued four โ€œfinalโ€ rules aimed at drastically cutting coal pollution, including a mandate that existing coal-fired power plants cut or capture 90% of their planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions by 2032 or convert to natural gas or close altogether. The agencyโ€™s other rules set timelines for significant cuts to smokestack emissions of mercury and other toxic metals, polluted wastewater from coal power plants and more stringent standards for coal ash disposal.

The โ€œpower plantโ€ rules make good on President Joe Bidenโ€™s promise to address human-caused climate change, according to the EPA. The actions are also intended to help curtail illness and premature deaths from coal pollution while providing a clear regulatory framework for utilities to shift to renewable sources of energy.

The agency also noted that it consulted with coal-reliant utilities about their existing plans regarding coal facilities and crafted the implementation schedules to allow for planning that avoids electrical power supply issues.

Gov. Mark Gordon and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan held a joint press conference at the University of Wyoming on August 9, 2023. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

โ€œBy developing these standards in a clear, transparent, inclusive manner, EPA is cutting pollution while ensuring that power companies can make smart investments and continue to deliver reliable electricity for all Americans,โ€ EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said in a prepared statement.

Coal proponents in Wyoming are furious.ย 

This graph shows the globally averaged monthly mean carbon dioxide abundance measured at the Global Monitoring Laboratoryโ€™s global network of air sampling sites since 1980. Data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. Credit: NOAA GML

While the rules target coal-fueled power plants, they also put Wyoming coal mines on notice: Their already waning U.S. customer base has an expiration date.

โ€œIt is clear the only goal envisioned by these rules released by the Environmental Protection Agency today is the end of coal communities in Wyoming,โ€ Gordon said in a prepared statement Thursday. โ€œEPA has weaponized the fear of climate change into a crushing set of rules that will result in an unreliable electric grid, unaffordable electricity and thousands of lost jobs.โ€

The Wyoming Mining Association also discounted climate change as an excuse to attack the coal industry. 

โ€œWyoming is once again the sacrificial lamb on the altar of the climate change cult,โ€ the associationโ€™s Executive Director Travis Deti said. 

The rules

Theย carbon dioxide emissions ruleย applies to coal-fired power plants as well as new natural gas-fired facilities, requiring them to prevent at least 90% of greenhouse gasses from entering the atmosphere.ย 

โ€œExisting coal-fired power plants are the largest source of [greenhouse gas] from the power sector,โ€ the EPA stated in the rule. โ€œNew natural gas-fired combustion turbines are some of the largest new sources of [greenhouse gas] being built today, and these final standards will ensure that they are constructed to minimize their [greenhouse gas] emissions.โ€ 

The rule updating Mercury and Air Toxics Standards tightens emissions by about 70%, an especially significant reduction for plants that burn lignite โ€” a lower-value coal than Wyomingโ€™s subbituminous product โ€” according to the agency.

Coal-fueled power plants will also be required to reduce various โ€œpollutantsโ€ associated with wastewater by more than 660 million pounds annually, and follow more stringent standards to prevent leaks at coal-ash storage facilities.

Implications for Wyoming

Wyoming remains the nationโ€™s largest coal producer, although production has plummeted by nearly half since 2008, with companies shipping some 237 million tons in 2023, according to the Wyoming State Geological Survey. More than 90% of coal mined in the state is sold to power plants in the U.S., which is why itโ€™s often referred to as โ€œthermal coalโ€ โ€” unlike โ€œmetallurgic coalโ€ that is sold to steel manufacturers.

Wyoming coal production has decreased by nearly half since 2008. (University of Wyoming)

Coal mining contributed some $650 million in taxes, royalties and fees to the state in 2019 and employed more than 5,000 workers, according to the Wyoming Mining Association.

The vast majority of coal mining occurs in the Powder River Basin in the northeast corner of the state, while several communities host nearby coal-fired power plants: Gillette, Glenrock, Wheatland, Kemmerer and Rock Springs.

Although Wyoming has experienced declines in both coal production and coal-fired power, the industry still serves as a major economic backbone for the state โ€” and a significant source of government revenue. The potential loss of coal-fired power facilities is an especially daunting prospect for nearby communities.

Those communities have wrestled with the knowledge of potential plant closures for a long time already, and the EPAโ€™s new rules only serve to clarify that potential reality, said Robert Godby, associate professor at the University of Wyomingโ€™s Economics Department.

โ€œIt really just kind of steepens the glide path to what we all knew was happening anyway,โ€ he told WyoFile on Friday.ย 

Explosive materials are loaded into a โ€œblast holeโ€ at a coal mine. (Dyno Nobel)

The new rules are likely to be challenged in court, not only by Wyoming, but also by other coal-reliant states, Godby said. Politics will also continue to play a role โ€” particularly if a Republican wins the presidential election this year. He noted, however, that former President Donald Trump was not able to make good on a promise to turn around the coal industryโ€™s decline.

Regardless, utilities are under increasing pressure to make long-term investment decisions in a quickly changing energy environment, and the EPAโ€™s actions this week diminish the likelihood that theyโ€™ll find the regulatory certainty needed to invest in coal-fueled power.

โ€œIt makes it more likely theyโ€™re going to retire [coal plants] and announce firm dates,โ€ Godby said. โ€œThatโ€™s going to create more certainty for the communities that are affected.โ€

Meantime, Gordon, who has touted technologies to reduce carbon dioxide from coal power plants, has vowed to fight the rules.

โ€œThese rules are a travesty, and their effects are devastating,โ€ Gordon said. โ€œI have directed the Wyoming Attorney General to engage with and lead a coalition of states to challenge the power plant emissions rule, and we are prepared to apply our litigation strategy to the oncoming wave of federal regulatory actions that threaten Wyoming.โ€

The University of Wyoming’s School of Energy Resources, and its partners, are advancing multiple CO2 capture and sequestration demonstration projects at Basin Electric’s Dry Fork Station north of Gillette, seen here on Sept. 2, 2022. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

Newย EPA rules will force fossil fuel power plants to cut pollution

by Robert Zullo, Utah News Dispatch
April 25, 2024

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday released a sweeping set of rules aimed at cutting air, water and land pollution from fossil fuel-fired power plants.

Environmental and clean energy groups celebrated the announcement as long overdue, particularly for coal-burning power plants, which have saddled hundreds of communities across the country with dirty air and hundreds of millions of tons of toxic coal ash waste. The ash has leached a host of toxins โ€“ including arsenic, mercury, lead, cadmium, radium and other pollutants โ€“ into ground and surface water.

โ€œToday is the culmination of years of advocacy for common-sense safeguards that will have a direct impact on communities long forced to suffer in the shadow of the dirtiest power plants in the country,โ€ said Ben Jealous, executive director of the Sierra Club, one of the nationโ€™s oldest and largest environmental organizations. โ€œIt is also a major step forward in our movementโ€™s fight to decarbonize the electric sector and help avoid the worst impacts of climate change.โ€

But some electric industry and pro-coal organizations blasted the rules as a threat to jobs and electric reliability at a time when power demands are surging. They also criticized the ruleโ€™s reliance on largely unproven carbon capture technologies.

Americaโ€™s Power, a trade organization for the nationโ€™s fleet of about 400 coal power plants across 42 states, called the number of new rules โ€œunprecedented,โ€ singling out the new emissions standards that will force existing coal plants to cut their carbon emissions by 90% by the 2032 if they intend to keep running past 2039.  Michelle Bloodworth, the groupโ€™s president and CEO, called the rule โ€œan extreme and unlawful overreach that endangers Americaโ€™s supply of dependable and affordable electricity.โ€

The Pennsylvania Coal Alliance, a nonprofit organization representing Pennsylvania coal mining companies, called the new rule โ€œa haphazard and dangerous threat to our gridโ€™s electricity supply, national security and our economy,โ€ in a news release.

โ€˜This forces thatโ€™

Many experts expect the regulations to be litigated, particularly the carbon rule, since the last time the EPA tried to restrict carbon emissions from power plants, a group of states led by West Virginia mounted a successful legal challenge that went to the U.S. Supreme Court.

But Julie McNamara, deputy policy director with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the agency took great pains to conform the rule to the legal constraints outlined by the court.

โ€œThis rule is specifically responsive to that Supreme Court decision,โ€ she said. โ€œWhich doesnโ€™t mean that it wonโ€™t go to the courts but this is so carefully hewn to that decision that it should be robust.โ€

The four rules EPA released Thursday mainly target coal-fired power plants.

โ€œBy developing these standards in a clear, transparent, inclusive manner, EPA is cutting pollution while ensuring that power companies can make smart investments and continue to deliver reliable electricity for all Americans,โ€ EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said.

In some ways, they attach a framework to a sea change in electric generation that is already well under way, McNamara said.

Coal accounted for just 16% of U.S. electric generation in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In 1990, by comparison, it comprised more than 54% of power generation. However, some states are more reliant on coal power than others.

In 2021, the most coal-dependent states were West Virginia, Missouri, Wyoming and Kentucky, per a 2022 report by  the EIA.

โ€œThis rulemaking adds structure to that transition,โ€ McNamara said. โ€œFor those who have chosen not to assess the future use of their coal plants, this forces that.โ€

The same EIA report found that Ohio and Pennsylvania had the largest declines in coal-fired capacity over the past two decades. Both states shifted from coal to natural gas as their largest source of electricity over that period.

Heather Oโ€™Neill, president and CEO of the clean energy trade group Advanced Energy United, said the new regulations are a chance for utilities to embrace cheaper, cleaner and more reliable options for the electric grid.

โ€œInstead of looking to build new gas plants or prolong the life of old coal plants, utilities should be taking advantage of the cheaper, cleaner, and more trusty tools in the toolbox,โ€ she said.

The carbon rule 

In 2009, the EPA concluded that greenhouse gas emissions โ€œendanger our nationโ€™s public health and welfare,โ€ the agency wrote, adding that since that time, โ€œthe evidence of the harms posed by GHG emissions has only grown and Americans experience the destructive and worsening effects of climate change every day.โ€

The new carbon emissions regulation will apply to existing coal plants and new natural gas plants. Coal plants that plan to operate beyond 2039 will have to capture 90% of their carbon emissions by 2032. New gas plants are split into three categories based on their capacity factor, a measure of how much electricity is generated over a period of time relative to the maximum amount it could have produced.

The plants that run the most (more than 40% capacity factor) will have to capture 90% of their carbon emissions by 2032. Existing gas plants will be regulated under a forthcoming rule that โ€œmore comprehensively addresses GHG emissions from this portion of the fleet,โ€ the agency said.

Michelle Solomon, a senior policy analyst for Energy Innovation, an energy and climate policy think tank, predicts that most coal plants will close rather than install the costly technology to capture carbon emissions.

โ€œClimate goals aside, the public health impacts of the rules in securing the retirement of coal fired power plants is so important,โ€ she said. Coal power in the U.S. has been increasingly pressured by cheaper gas and renewable generation and mounting environmental restrictions, but some grid operators have still been caught flat-footed by the pace of coal plant closures.

โ€œI think the role of this rule, to provide that certainty about where weโ€™re going, is so crucial to get the entities that have control over the rate of the transition to start to take action here,โ€ she said. But the National Rural Electric Cooperative Associationโ€™s CEO, Jim Matheson, called the rules โ€œunlawful, unrealistic and unachievableโ€ noting that it relies on technology โ€œthat is not ready for prime time.โ€

And Todd Snitchler, president and CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association, a trade group for competitive power suppliers, called the rule โ€œa painful example of aspirational policy outpacing physical and operational realitiesโ€ because of its reliance on unproven carbon capture and hydrogen blending technologies to cut emissions.

A beefed up Mercury and Air Toxic Standards rule

The EPA called the revision to the Mercury and Air Toxic Standards  โ€œthe most significant update since MATS was first issued in February 2012.โ€ It predicted the rule would cut emissions of mercury and other air pollutants like nickel, arsenic, lead, soot, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and others. It cuts the mercury limit by 70% for power plants fired by lignite coal, which is the lowest grade of coal and one of the dirtiest to burn for power generation.

For all coal plants, the emissions limit for toxic metals is reduced by 67%. The EPA says the rule will result in major cuts in releases of mercury and other hazardous metals, fine particulate matter, nitrogen oxides and carbon dioxide.  The agency projects โ€œ$300 million in health benefits,โ€ including reducing risks of heart attacks, cancer and developmental delays in children and $130 million in climate benefits.

Stronger wastewater discharge limits for power plants

Coal fired power plants use huge volumes of water, and when the wastewater is returned to lakes, rivers and streams it can be laden with mercury, arsenic and other metals as well as bromide, chloride and other pollution and contaminate drinking water and harm aquatic life.

The new rule is projected to cut about 670 million pounds of pollutants discharged in wastewater from coal plants per year. Plants that will cease coal combustion over the next decade can abide by less stringent rules.

โ€œPower plants for far too long have been able to get away with treating our waterways like an open sewer,โ€ said Thomas Cmar, a senior attorney at Earthjustice, a nonprofit environmental law organization, during a briefing on the new rules earlier this week.

Closing a coal ash loophole 

Coal ash, whatโ€™s left after coal has been burned for power generation, is one the nationโ€™s largest waste streams. The 2015 EPA Coal Combustion Residuals rule were the first federal regulations for coal ash. But that rule left about half of the ash sitting at power plant sites and other locations โ€“ much of it in unlined disposal pits โ€“ unregulated because it did not apply to so-called โ€œlegacy impoundmentsโ€ that were not being used to accept new ash.

โ€œWeโ€™re going to see a long-awaited crackdown on coal ash pollution from Americaโ€™s coal plants, and itโ€™ll be a huge win for Americaโ€™s health and water resources,โ€ said Lisa Evans, a senior attorney with Earthjustice. โ€œThey are all likely leaking toxic chemicals like arsenic into groundwater and most contain levels of radioactivity that can be dangerous to human health.โ€

Groundwater monitoring data shows that the vast majority of ash ponds at coal plants are contaminating groundwater, said Abel Russ, a senior attorney with the Environmental Integrity Project. Butunder the old rule, Russ said, facilities could dodge cleanup requirements by blaming contamination on older ash dumps not covered by the regulation.

โ€œThis is a huge loophole,โ€ Russ said. โ€œYou canโ€™t restore groundwater quality if youโ€™re only addressing half of the coal ash sources on site.โ€

However, several attorneys on the Earthjustice briefing said the new rules, which will require monitoring at clean up and hundreds of more ash sites, will only be as good as the enforcement.

โ€œItโ€™s meaningful only if these utilities obey the law. Unfortunately to date, many of them have not,โ€ said Frank Holleman, a senior attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center.

Utah News Dispatch is part of States Newsroom, a nonprofit news network supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Utah News Dispatch maintains editorial independence. Contact Editor McKenzie Romero for questions: info@utahnewsdispatch.com. Follow Utah News Dispatch on Facebook and Twitter.

Is Biden a public-lands protector?ย 

by Jonathan Thompson, High Country News
April 25, 2024

Welcome to the Landline, a monthly newsletter from High Country News about land, water, wildlife, climate and conservation in the Western United States.  Sign up to get it in your inbox.

On March 27, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland signed an order withdrawing nearly 222,000 acres of federal land in western Coloradoโ€™s Thompson Divide area from future mining claims and oil and gas leases. The protected area includes aspen forests, alpine ridges, piรฑon-juniper-dotted mesas and high-country meadows โ€” diverse habitat that is home to an array of big game species and other wildlife. It stretches from Glenwood Springs to Crested Butte and over to Paonia, home of High Country Newsโ€™ headquarters.

The move was a big deal for the eclectic ensemble of local ranchers, environmentalists and recreational users who had spent the last two decades fighting proposed mining and fossil fuel development in the area. It solidified a decade-old ban on new oil and gas leases while also driving a nail into the coffin of a thwarted bid to mine molybdenum on the โ€œRed Lady,โ€ a wildflower-strewn mountain outside Crested Butte.

The Thompson Divide protections cover just one-tenth of 1% of the land administered by the Bureau of Land Management. So a cynic might see this temporary withdrawal โ€” it expires in 2044 โ€” as little more than a mildly consequential attempt by President Joe Biden to further differentiate himself from his Republican rival and perhaps regain the support of voters disillusioned by his administrationโ€™s failure to end or significantly curtail fossil fuel development on public lands.

Zoom out a bit, though, and a much different picture reveals itself: The Thompson Divide withdrawal, like the Chaco region leasing ban, is merely one piece in a far larger policy puzzle. Taken alone, theyโ€™re not terribly significant. But the whole is far greater than the sum of the parts: Itโ€™s the most significant shift in public-land management since Congress passed the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976, which mandated multiple use and sought to rid the BLM of its reputation as the โ€œBureau of Livestock and Mining,โ€ in the process rocking the Western political landscape and sparking the Sagebrush Rebellion.

Marcelina Mountain in the Raggeds Wilderness is seen from Gunnison National Forestโ€™s Horse Ranch Park trail, Colorado. A portion of the scene is part of a withdrawal of nearly 222,000 acres of federal lands in Coloradoโ€™s Thompson Divide area from future mining claims and oil and gas leases.

The administration has issued so many public-lands-related orders, rules and protections over the last several weeks that Iโ€™ve had a tough time keeping up. Tracking the environmentalistsโ€™ fluctuating responses โ€” along with the growing outrage from Republican officials โ€” has been downright exhausting, and at times exasperating. The recent acts include:

The BLM finalized its methane waste prevention rule on March 27, requiring operators on public lands to find and repair leaks and to reduce flaring and venting of the potent greenhouse gas. Each year, oil and gas facilities on federal land lose about 44.2 billion cubic feet of methane โ€” i.e., natural gas โ€” and other associated gases to venting and flaring alone. This equates to burning 2.7 million tons of coal, and it also robs American taxpayers of as much as $32 million per year in lost royalties. The rule will not only require drillers to capture or reuse methane when feasible, it will also charge royalties on wasted gas, bringing in tens of millions of dollars annually in additional revenue.

The administration blocked new oil and gas leases on 13 million acres โ€” or just over half โ€” of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. The move is a bittersweet victory for environmentalists; it doesnโ€™t affect the gargantuan Willow Project, which the Biden administration approved last year, or any other active leases in the reserve. Alaska Republicans slammed Biden nonetheless, calling his action an โ€œillegalโ€ blow and a โ€œone-two punchโ€ to the stateโ€™s economy.

The administration revoked a Trump-era approval for the proposed 211-mile Ambler industrial road through northwestern Alaska wilderness, saying it would violate environmental laws and harm wildlife and Indigenous subsistence hunters. The road would give mining companies access to a massive copper deposit buried beneath ecologically sensitive lands.

The Biden administration also blocked new mining claims and oil and gas leases on 4,200 acres of federal land near Placitas, New Mexico, for the next 50 years. The Pueblos of San Felipe and Santa Ana consider the land in question sacred.  

The administration finalized rules raising royalty rates and reclamation bonding amounts for oil and gas drilling on federal land. Environmentalists welcomed the new rules, which mark one of the most significant changes to the Mineral Leasing Act since it became law in 1920. However, some argued that they did not go far enough to reduce hydrocarbon production โ€” or reduce the resulting emissions โ€” from public lands. And a ProPublica/Capital & Main investigation found that the new bonding amounts, which were based on flawed math, would not be nearly enough to cover the actual costs of cleaning up all the wells. Meanwhile, New Mexicoโ€™s oil and gas industry, which has enjoyed record-high profits in recent years, whined: โ€œThe new anti-oil and gas development policies will substantially handcuff production opportunities for small producers.โ€

The Biden administration just blocked new oil and gas leases on over half of Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve.

Probably the most intense reactions โ€” of both elation and anger โ€” came in response to last weekโ€™s finalization of the public-lands rule, designed to put conservation on a par with oil and gas development, grazing and other extractive uses. The rule directs the agency to prioritize landscape health and creates a mechanism enabling outside entities to lease public land for restoration projects, much as a rancher or oil and gas company might lease BLM land. It also allows firms to lease land for mitigation work to offset impacts from development elsewhere on public lands, and it clarifies the process for designating areas of critical environmental concern, or ACECs, where land managers can add extra regulations to protect cultural or natural resources. And it directs the agency to incorporate Indigenous knowledge into decision-making, particularly when considering ACECs.

Environmentalists lauded the decision. In a written statement, Wilderness Society President Jamie Williams called it a โ€œgeneration-defining shift in how we manage our shared resources.โ€ It was met by an equally fervent but entirely opposite response from conservative lawmakers. Rep. Lauren Boebert, a Colorado Republican, denounced it as a โ€œland grabโ€ that would โ€œend federal grazingโ€ and block access to public lands โ€” a misguided worry that was echoed by a variety of her GOP colleagues.

Both responses are likely to prove excessive. The rule doesnโ€™t add any new restrictions or put any public land off-limits to development, nor does it give greens the power to expel a legitimate drilling, mining or grazing operation in order to do a restoration project. It simply provides new tools to help the BLM uphold the multiple-use charge that Congress mandated nearly 50 years ago, before the agency went astray during the Reagan and successive Bush administrations. And Boebertโ€™s notion that it will hurt grazing is especially off-base: While Biden has occasionally stood up to the oil industry, he has done nothing to reform public-lands grazing policy, much to conservationistsโ€™ dismay.

Again, taken on its own, the new rule is hardly radical or revolutionary. But combined with the administrationโ€™s other actions โ€” from significantly reducing the amount of land leased to oil and gas companies, to restricting energy development via resource management plans, to establishing new and restoring shrunken national monuments โ€” it begins to amount to something important.  At long last, a coherent โ€” if imperfect โ€” public-lands climate policy has begun to take shape.

This article first appeared on High Country News and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.

A flurry of public land protections: Biden’s rushing to get new rules in place, just in case โ€ฆ — Jonathan P. Thompson (LandDesk.org)

Beeweed and pumpjack. San Juan Basin, New Mexico. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

Click the link to read the article on The Land Desk website (Jonathan P. Thompson):

The public lands beat has been rather busy, to put it mildly, as the Biden administration rushes to finalize rules, orders, and protections as soon as possible to make them less vulnerable to being rolled back if Biden were to lose in November to, ummm, a more hostile candidate. Maybe Bidenโ€™s also working to more clearly distinguish himself on environmental issues from Trump in advance of the election โ€” as if the stark contrast isnโ€™t abundantly clear already. 

So much has happened that Iโ€™ve fallen behind. So forget the pre-amble, letโ€™s get to it:

In late March, the Bureau of Land Management finalized its methane waste prevention rule, which requires oil and gas operators on federal lands to find and repair leaks in their infrastructure and to phase out flaring and venting of methane โ€” a.k.a. natural gas. The rules complement the EPAโ€™s similar regulations finalized earlier this year. 

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, having about 86 times the warming potential of carbon dioxide over the near-term (methane in the atmosphere breaks down into carbon dioxide and water over the long-term). While methane โ€” which occurs alongside oil in underground reservoirs โ€” can be captured and marketed as natural gas, oil drillers tend to vent or flare it and other associated gases, since it isnโ€™t as profitable as oil.ย 

Flaring and venting of methane and other gases shot up after horizontal drilling-multistage hydraulic fracturing opened up vast new stores of oil. Source: Bureau of Land Management.

Between 2010 and 2020, after the โ€œfrackingโ€-enabled shale revolution got underway, oil and gas operations on federal and tribal land vented and flared an average of 44.2 billion cubic feet of methane annually. Thatโ€™s as bad for the climate as burning around 9 million tons of coal. And since operators donโ€™t pay royalties on gas they throw away,  that cost American taxpayers some $166 million in lost revenue over a decade. 

The rules look to rein that in by gradually decreasing the maximum amount of methane that can be flared or vented and charging royalties on the gases that are wasted. It is expected to slash greenhouse gas emissions and result in about $50 million annually in added royalty revenue.ย 

Methane Madness: Part I — Jonathan P. Thompson

***

A few days later, the administration finalized its ban on new oil and gas leases and mining claims on about 220,000 acres along Western Coloradoโ€™s Thompson Divide. The protections cover a stretch of high-country BLM and USFS land between Glenwood Springs, Crested Butte, and Somerset. It does not affect valid, existing leases or claims. 

In the early 2000s an eclectic group of environmentalists, ranchers, and recreational users banded together to protect the Divide from the growing threat of oil and gas development. Their efforts goaded the feds to halt new development and cancel existing leases on much of the acreage, long before this springโ€™s move. Meanwhile, a similar uprising in the Crested Butte area blocked a proposed molybdenum mine on Mt. Emmons, or the Red Lady. 

The administrationโ€™s withdrawal bolsters these efforts and blocks new development for the next 20 years. By then, one would hope, the administrationโ€™s demand-side efforts to reduce fossil fuel consumption โ€” including encouraging clean energy development and pushing zero-emission cars โ€” will have kicked in.ย 

***

And Biden and Interior Secretary Deb Haaland raised royalty rates and reclamation bonding amounts for oil and gas drilling on federal land. This one was a long-time coming. The previous 12.5% royalty rate has remained unchanged since Congress passed the Mineral Leasing Act in 1920. And oil and gas drillers have been getting away with posting bonds for all of their wells in a state that donโ€™t get anywhere near covering the cost of cleaning up a single well. 

Environmentalists welcomed the reforms, but also criticized them for failing to address climate impacts of oil and gas development on public lands. Oh, and then thereโ€™s the thing about the faulty math: Mark Olalde and Nick Bowlin, for ProPublica and Capital & Main, found that even the new bonding amounts wouldnโ€™t cover clean up. The problem? A BLM staffer miscalculated the cost to plug and reclaim a single well, and the inaccurate figure got incorporated into the analysis and final rule. Whoops. 

***

The administration blocked new oil and gas leases on 13 million acres of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. Thatโ€™s a huge amount of land and especially remarkable given that itโ€™s in a petroleum reserve and itโ€™s likely to result in some 50% less greenhouse gas emissions than Trumpโ€™s plan for the same area. Still, it may not be enough for the climate hawks who remain livid over the administrationโ€™s approval of a scaled-back, but still gargantuan, Willow (a.k.a. โ€œcarbon bombโ€) drilling project in the reserve. Meanwhile, Bidenโ€™s Willow approval is not enough to soothe the anger of Alaskaโ€™s congressional delegation โ€” including Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola โ€” who blasted Biden for ignoring Alaskaโ€™s love for fossil fuels and called it an โ€œillegalโ€ move that dealt a โ€œone-two punchโ€ to the stateโ€™s economy. You just canโ€™t win for losing, can you? 

***ย 

Light and texture. Big Gypsum Valley, Colorado. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

And last, but certainly not least: The Bureau of Land Management finalized its public lands rule, designed to put conservation on a par with oil and gas development, grazing, and other extractive uses.

The ruleโ€™s main provisions include:ย 

  • It directs the agency to prioritize landscape health in all decision making, which is what itโ€™s already supposed to do when assessing grazing allotments. It hasnโ€™t done a very good job at that, so far.ย 
  • It creates a mechanism for outside entities โ€” states, tribes, or nonprofits โ€” to lease public land for restoration projects โ€” much as a rancher or oil and gas company might lease BLM land.ย 
  • It allows firms to lease land for mitigation work to offset impacts from development elsewhere.ย 
  • It clarifies the process for designating areas of critical environmental concern, or ACECs, where land managers can add extra regulations to protect cultural or natural resources.ย 
  • And it directs the agency to incorporate Indigenous knowledge into decision-making, particularly when considering ACECs.ย 

The rule is being hailed by conservationists as a โ€œgeneration-defining shiftโ€ in public land management, and lambasted by Sagebrush Rebel-wannabes as a โ€œmisguided land grab meant to prevent oil and gas production โ€ฆ <and> โ€ฆ an attack on our ranchers and farmers that will end grazing on federal lands and will also prevent Coloradans from accessing their public lands.โ€ (A gold star to whoever guesses which MAGA-loving congress member made the latter grossly misinformed quote!).

Honestly, Iโ€™m not sure either sideโ€™s hoohas are warranted. Itโ€™s hard to see how a couple new leasing categories will be generation defining, I kinda doubt the rules will affect oil and gas production, and Iโ€™m absolutely certain they wonโ€™t end grazing or otherwise block access to public lands. 

The rule doesnโ€™t add any new restrictions or put any land off-limits to development. It doesnโ€™t give greens the power to kick a legitimate drilling, mining or grazing operation off public land to do a restoration or mitigation project. The mitigation leases could actually facilitate energy development. As for grazing, the Biden administration has indicated it considers ranching to be a type of land conservation, a theory that is manifested in the BLMโ€™s policy of veering away from public lands grazing reform. Grazing is allowed in most ACECs. And the agency just set the 2024 grazing fee at $1.35 per animal unit month, the minimum Congress allows. I think the cows and their ranchers will be just fine under this new rule.

It seems to me that this ruleโ€™s provisions are fairly open to interpretation. That means the actual implementation โ€” and how it plays out on the ground โ€” will depend largely on BLM state, regional, and field-office managers. And those local-level bureaucrats can be swayed by the prevailing attitudes of the communities where they live and work, and by pressure from local or state officials.ย 

In the end, the rule is essentially a reminder to the BLM that their job is not just to bend over for corporate and extractive interests, but to actually care for the land that belongs to all Americans. It is simply reinforcing the multiple-use charge Congress set forth when it passed the Federal Lands Policy and Management Act back in 1976. Itโ€™s not that big of a deal. But then again, FLPMA helped spark the Sagebrush Rebellion in the late 1970s. So who knows what this rule might inspire now…

๐Ÿ“ธ Parting Shot ๐ŸŽž๏ธ

Eagles in a tree near Norwood, Colorado. Jonathan P. Thompson photo.

How much water remains in southeast #Coloradoโ€™s aquifers?: Colorado legislative committee approves many millions for water projects in Colorado โ€” including $250,000 for a study crucial for Baca County — Allen Best (@BigPivots) #OgallalaAquifer #RepublicanRiver #RioGrande

Corn in Baca County. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

Unanimous votes in the Colorado Legislature are rare, but they do happen. Consider HB24-1435, the funding for the Colorado Water Conservation Board projects.

The big duffle bag of funding for various projects was approved 13-0 by the Senate Water and Agriculture Resources Committee. It had bipartisan sponsors, including Rep. Marc Catlin, a former water district official from Montrose.

โ€œColorado has been a leader in water for a long, long time, and this is bill is an opportunity for us to stay in that leadership position,โ€ said Catlin, a Republican and a co-sponsor.

โ€œThis is one of my favorite bills,โ€ said Rep. Karen McCormick, a Democrat from Longmont and former veterinarian. She is also a co-sponsor.

This historical photo shows the penstocks of the Shoshone power plant above the Colorado River. A coalition led by the Colorado River District is seeking to purchase the water rights associated with the plant. Credit: Library of Congress photo

The bill has some very big-ticket items, including $20 million for the Shoshone power plant agreement between Western Slope interests and Public Service Co. of Colorado, better known by its parent company, Xcel Energy. Andy Mueller, the general manager of the Glenwood Springs-based Colorado River District, called the effort to keep the water in the river โ€œincredibly importantโ€ to those who make a living in the Colorado River Basin.

This map shows the 15-mile reach of the Colorado River near Grand Junction, home to four species of endangered fish. Map credit: CWCB

Mueller also pointed out that keeping water in the river will benefit of four endangered species of fish that inhabit what is called the 15-mile stretch of the Colorado River near Grand Junction.

Another $2 million was appropriated for the turf-replacement program in cities, a program first funded in 2022. Another mid-range item is telemetry for Snotel sites, to keep track of snow depths, the better to predict runoff. It is to get $1.8 million.

Among the smallest items in the budget is a big one for Baca County, in Coloradoโ€™s southeast corner. The bill, if adopted, would provide the Colorado Water Conservation Board with $250,000 to be used to evaluate the remaining water in aquifers underlying southeastern Colorado. There, near the communities of Springfield and Walsh, some wells long ago exhausted the Ogallala aquifer and have gone deeper into lower aquifers, in a few cases exhausting those, too. Farmers in other areas continue to pump with only modest declines.

What exactly is the status of the underground water there? How many more decades can the agricultural economy dependent upon water from the aquifers continue? The area is well aside from the Arkansas River or other sources of snowmelt.

A study by the McLaughlin Group in 2002 delivered numbers that are sobering. Wes McKinley, a former state legislator from Walsh, at a meeting in February covered by the Plainsman Herald of Springfield, said the McLaughlin study numbers show that 84% of the water has been extracted. That study suggested 50-some years of water remaining. If correct, that leaves 34 years of water today.

Tim Hume, the areaโ€™s representation on the Colorado Groundwater Commission, has emphasized that he believes this new study will be needed to accurately determine how water should be managed.

How soon will this study proceed? asked Rep. Ty Winter, a Republican from Trinidad who represents southeastern Colorado. Tracy Kosloff, the deputy director of the Colorado Division of Water Resources, answered that the technical analysis should begin sometime after July. โ€œI would think it is reasonable to finish it up by the end of 2025, but that is just an educated guess.โ€

She said the state would work with the Baca County community to come up with a common goal and direction โ€œabout how they want to manage their resources.โ€

Ogallala Aquifer groundwater withdrawal rates (fresh water, all sources) by county in 2000. Source: National Atlas. By Kbh3rd – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6079001

Unlike the Republican River area of northeastern Colorado, where farmers also have been plunging wells into the Ogallala and other aquifers, this area of southeastern Colorado has no native river. In the Republican Basin, Colorado is trying to remove 25,000 acres from irrigation by the end of 2029 in order to leave more water to move into the Republican River.ย See story. A similar proposition is underway in the San Luis Valley, where farmers have also extensively tapped the underground aquifers that are tributary to the Rio Grande.ย See story.

San Luis Valley Groundwater

The closest to critical questioning of the bill came from Rep. Richard Holtorf, a Republican who represents many of the farming counties of northeastern Colorado. He questioned the $2 million allocated to the Office of the Attorney General.

He was told that $1 million of that constantly replenishing fund is allocated to the Colorado River, $110,000 for the Republican River, $459,000 for the Rio Grande, $35,000 for the Arkansas and $200,000 for the South Platte.

Then thereโ€™s the litigation with Nebraska about the proposed ditch that would begin in Colorado near Julesburg but deliver water to Nebraskaโ€™s Perkins County. Colorado hotly disputes that plan.

Lauren Ris, the director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, said Colorado is โ€œvery confident in our legal strategy.โ€

Holtorf also noted that the severance tax provides 25% of the funding for the water operations. The severance tax comes from fossil fuel development. As Colorado moves to renewable energy, โ€œwhat happens to this Colorado water if we kill the goose that lays the golden egg?โ€

Ris replied said future declines in the severance tax is a conversation underway among many agencies in Colorado state government.

The South Platte Hotel building that sits at the Two Forks site, where the North and South forks of the South Platte River come together. Photo: Brent Gardner-Smith/Aspen Journalism

Column: Changing our lives is scary. But the #climatecrisis is way scarier — @Sammy_Roth (The Los Angeles Times) #ActOnClimate

Colstrip Power Plants 1-4 from right to left. By P.primo (talk) – I created this work entirely by myself., Public Domain, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?curid=18292329

Click the link to read the column on The Los Angeles Times website (Sammy Roth). Here’s an excerpt:

April 19, 2024

Yet as Iโ€™veย traversed the American Westย over the last two years with my L.A. Times colleagues, exploring how the transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy is reshaping sensitive ecosystems and rural communities, one lesson has risen above the rest: If we donโ€™t embrace change now, while we still have a choice, far worse changes will eviscerate us later. That lesson crystallized for me over the last few months, as I wrote about a Montana coal town struggling to accept that its West Coast customer base no longer wants coal power โ€” you canย read my full story hereย โ€” and as I struggled personally to figure out what kinds of stories I want to tell going forward, after a decade of reporting on challenges facing the energy transition…

Folks in Colstrip [Montana] and similar towns are justifiably worried that if big cities replace fossil fuels with renewable energy, their lives will change for the worse. Theyโ€™re not totally opposed to wind and solar, but theyโ€™re skeptical those technologies will ever fully replace fossil fuels, in terms of the bountiful jobs, tax revenues and other economic benefits that coal, oil and gas have provided.

2024 #COleg: Keeping water rights on the #YampaRiver while utilities figure out future technologies — Allen Best (@BigPivots)

Power distribution lines in the Yampa River Valley October 2020. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

April 18, 2024

Bill moving through Colorado Capitol that would allow Xcel Energy and Tri-State G&T to keep water rights for 20 years after last coal plant closes

Coloradoโ€™s Yampa River Valley has five coal-burning units that will cease operations from 2025 to 2030. Two are at Hayden and three are at Craig. All require water for cooling.

What will become of that water once the coal plants close?

SB24-197, a bill that is rapidly moving through the Colorado Legislature, would allow Xcel Energy and Tri-State Power and Generation to hold onto their water rights, even if they are not using them, until 2050. That is a precedent-setting exception to Coloradoโ€™s famous use-it-or-lose-it provision in water law.

The utilities say they may very likely need the water once they figure out how they will replace the coal generation. Neither utility has announced specific plans, but in response to a question at the billโ€™s first hearing in a Senate committee last week, Xcel Energyโ€™s Richard Belt identified pumped-storage hydro and hydrogen as leading candidates. The federal government has devoted considerable funding and support for development of both technologies, he said.

โ€œThose are the two leaders,โ€ said Belt. โ€œThere arenโ€™t many on the horizon that would fill the niche in that decree.โ€

Both technologies would provide storage. Xcel and other utilities are on their way to having massive amounts of cheap renewable energy. Still to be solved is how to ensure reliability when winds quiet for long periods. And the sun, of course, always goes down.

Storage will be essential and perhaps some kind of baseload generation. Xcelโ€™s current plans call for an increase in natural gas capacity to ensure reliability even if the natural gas plants are used only infrequently, say 1% or 2% of the time. Xcel Energy is also adding literally tons of four-hour lithium-ion battery storage.

Cabin Creek pumped hydro reservoir. Photo credit: EE Online

The companyโ€™s biggest storage device is still its oldest, the 324-megawatt Cabin Creek pumped storage unit. Water from the upper reservoir is released to generate electricity when it is needed most, then pumped back uphill when power is relatively plentiful.

A developer has secured rights from landowners at a site between Hayden and Craig. See story. Another pumped-storage hydro possibility has been identified in the area between Penrose and Colorado Springs.

Hydrogen has less of a track record, at least in Colorado. However, it is part of  Coloradoโ€™s all-of-the-above approach. See story. Hydrogen can be created from natural gas, but to meet Coloradoโ€™s needs it must be created from water. It would then be stored. Like pumped-storage hydro, it would be created when renewables are producing excess electricity, and the hydrogen could then be tapped to create electricity when needed most. That electrical generation would also use water for cooling, Belt said.

The bill, said Belt, proposes to allow Xcel the time for the economic and feasibility details of these emerging technologies to be resolved โ€œinstead of forcing a near-term decision driven by the processes of current water law.โ€

Normally, utilities would be required to demonstrate purpose of water, which can take several years, or risk abandonment. Because they will not have to, some see this as allowing the utilities to speculate. The utilities insist that itโ€™s too soon to know exactly what their future water needs will be. But in addition to owning land in the Yampa Valley and water, they have expensive transmission linked to the rest of Colorado.

State Sen. Cleave Simpson, a Republican from Alamosa โ€” and a former lignite coal-mining engineer, made note of that infrastructure on the floor of the Senate on Monday morning when he spoke in favor.

The bill will allow the utilities to hold onto the water in Western Colorado โ€œso the region can have a true just transition and so hopefully it can continue to be an energy producing

region using existing infrastructure.โ€ Upon advice of the Colorado Attorney Generalโ€™s Office, the bill was amended by the Senate to specify that the water must remain in the Yampa River Basin.

Coyote Gulch near the confluence of the Little Snake and Yampa Rivers July 2021.

Since Colorado adopted carbon reduction targets in 2019, there have been questions about what might happen to the water in the Yampa Valley. Itโ€™s not a huge amount of water, but it can matter in a basin that since 2018 has had several calls on the river after having none for the previous 150 years.

The issue was hashed out by the legislatively-created Drought Task Force in 2023. The task force called attention to the idea of allowing utilities to preserve their water rights until 2050, but the idea failed to get a full endorsement.

Sen. Dylan Roberts, a prime sponsor, explained at the Senate Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee meeting that additional work in recent months has produced legislation that has ended objections. Indeed, Western Resource Advocates supported the full bill, as did others.

Jackie Brown, who represented Tri-State on the task force, told the Senate committee members that the measures in SB24-197 โ€œprovide Tri-State certainty that our water resources remain intact and available for future dispatchable carbon-free generation as needed and is projected in our electric resource plan. While we continue our planning process, keeping this utility water in the Yampa River helps all water users, creating a win-win situation.โ€

The Glenwood Springs-based Colorado River District in 2021 conducted a study of what happens to water when released from the Elkhead Reservoir, which is located near Hayden. The study found that 14% of the water was picked up by irrigators, 10% was lost to transit โ€“ and the rest of it flowed downstream. That suggests what will become of this water while it is not used.

Downstream lie segments of the Yampa where endangered fish species live. Those stretches have become nearly non-existent during the hot and dry summers of recent years.

Routt County Commissioner Tim Corrigan said his county supports the bill. He said hebelieved that Moffat County did also. He emphasized that the solution will help the environment as well as other users. The energy transition in northwest Colorado, he said โ€œwill take place over a very long time.โ€

The bill also has provisions applicable across Colorado. It allows the owner of a decreed storage water right to loan water to the Colorado Water Conservation Board for a reach of river for which the board does not hold a decreed instream flow water right. It also requires the CWCB to establish an agricultural water protection program in each of the stateโ€™s water divisions.

Simpson, on the Senate floor, also explained that the bill would create what he called a much-needed program, crafting a pathway to loan water from water storage for a reservoir to benefit an instream flow program โ€œwithout going through the whole CWCB process with getting an adjudicated flow.โ€

Yampa/White/Green/North Platte river basins via the Colorado Geological Survey

This is all just a part of a natural cycle, right? — @KHayhoe #ActOnClimate

All this worry about warming when itโ€™s just a natural cycle. The climate is always changing and todayโ€™s no different — right? Global Weirding is produced by KTTZ Texas Tech Public Media and distributed by PBS Digital Studios. New episodes every other Wednesday at 10 am central. Brought to you in part by: Bob and Linda Herscher, Freese and Nichols, Inc, and the Texas Tech Climate Science Center.

No sign of greenhouse gases increases slowing in 2023 — NOAA #ActOnClimate

Greenhouse-gas monitoring equipment. Credit: Lauren Lipuma

Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website (Theo Stein):

Levels of the three most important human-caused greenhouse gases โ€“ carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide โ€“ continued their steady climb during 2023, according to NOAA scientists. 

While the rise in the three heat-trapping gases recorded in the air samples collected by NOAAโ€™s Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) in 2023 was not quite as high as the record jumps observed in recent years, they were in line with the steep increases observed during the past decade. 

โ€œNOAAโ€™s long-term air sampling program is essential for tracking causes of climate change and for supporting the U.S. efforts to establish an integrated national greenhouse gas measuring, monitoring and information system,โ€ said GML Director Vanda Grubiลกiฤ‡. โ€œAs these numbers show, we still have a lot of work to do to make meaningful progress in reducing the amount of greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere.โ€ย 

The global surface concentration of CO2, averaged across all 12 months of 2023, was 419.3 parts per million (ppm), an increase of 2.8 ppm during the year. This was the 12th consecutive year CO2ย increased by more than 2 ppm, extendingย the highest sustained rateย of CO2ย increases during the 65-year monitoring record. Three consecutive years of CO2ย ย growth of 2 ppm or more had not been seen in NOAAโ€™s monitoring records prior to 2014. Atmospheric CO2ย is now more than 50% higher than pre-industrial levels.

This graph shows the globally averaged monthly mean carbon dioxide abundance measured at the Global Monitoring Laboratoryโ€™s global network of air sampling sites since 1980. Data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. Credit: NOAA GML

โ€œThe 2023 increase is the third-largest in the past decade, likely a result of an ongoing increase of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, coupled with increased fire emissions possibly as a result of the transition from La Nina to El Nino,โ€ said Xin Lan, a CIRES scientist who leads GMLโ€™s effort to synthesize data from the NOAA Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network for tracking global greenhouse gas trends.

Atmospheric methane, less abundant than CO2ย but more potent at trapping heat in the atmosphere, rose to an average of 1922.6 parts per billion (ppb). The 2023 methane increase over 2022 was 10.9 ppb, lower than the record growth rates seen in 2020 (15.2 ppb), 2021(18 ppb)ย  and 2022 (13.2 ppb), but still the 5th highest since renewed methane growth started in 2007. Methane levels in the atmosphere are now more than 160% higher than their pre-industrial level.

This graph shows globally-averaged, monthly mean atmospheric methane abundance determined from marine surface sites for the full NOAA time-series starting in 1983. Values for the last year are preliminary, pending recalibrations of standard gases and other quality control steps. Credit: NOAA GM

In 2023, levels of nitrous oxide, the third-most significant human-caused greenhouse gas, climbed by 1 ppb to 336.7 ppb. The two years of highest growth since 2000 occurred in 2020 (1.3 ppb) and 2021 (1.3 ppb). Increases in atmospheric nitrous oxide during recent decades are mainly from use of nitrogen fertilizer and manure from the expansion and intensification of agriculture. Nitrous oxide concentrations are 25% higher than the pre-industrial level of 270 ppb.

Taking the pulse of the planet one sample at a time
NOAAโ€™s Global Monitoring Laboratory collected more than 15,000 air samples from monitoring stations around the world in 2023 and analyzed them in its state-of-the-art laboratory in Boulder,

Colorado. Each spring, NOAA scientists release preliminary calculations of the global average levels of these three primary long-lived greenhouse gases observed during the previous year to track their abundance, determine emissions and sinks, and understand carbon cycle feedbacks.

Measurements are obtained from air samples collected from sites in NOAAโ€™sย Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, which includes about 53 cooperative sampling sites around the world, 20 tall tower sites, and routine aircraft operation sites from North America.ย 

Carbon dioxide emissions remain the biggest problem 

By far the mostย important contributor to climate changeย is CO2ย , which is primarily emitted by burning of fossil fuels. Human-caused CO2ย pollution increased from 10.9 billion tons per year in the 1960s โ€“ which is when the measurements at theย Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaiiย began โ€“ to about 36.8 billion tons per year in 2023. This sets a new record, according to theย Global Carbon Project, which uses NOAAโ€™sย Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Networkย measurements to define the net impact of global carbon emissions and sinks.

This graph shows annual mean growth rates of carbon dioxide based on globally averaged marine surface data. Decadal averages of the growth rate are plotted as horizontal lines. Credit: NOAA GML

The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere today is comparable to where it was around 4.3 million years ago during the mid-Pliocene epoch, when sea level was about 75 feet higher than today, the average temperature was 7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than in pre-industrial times, and large forests occupied areas of the Arctic that are now tundra. 

About half of the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to date have been absorbed at the Earthโ€™s surface, divided roughly equally between oceans and land ecosystems, including grasslands and forests. The CO2 absorbed by the worldโ€™s oceans contributes to ocean acidification, which is causing a fundamental change in the chemistry of the ocean, with impacts to marine life and the people who depend on them. The oceans have also absorbed an estimated 90% of the excess heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases. 

Research continues to point to microbial sources for rising methane

NOAAโ€™s measurements show that atmospheric methane increased rapidly during the 1980s, nearly stabilized in the late-1990s and early 2000s, then resumed a rapid rise in 2007. 

Aย 2022 studyย by NOAA and NASA scientists and additionalย NOAA research in 2023ย suggests that more than 85% of the increase from 2006 to 2021 was due to increased microbial emissions generated by livestock, agriculture, human and agricultural waste, wetlands and other aquatic sources. The rest of the increase was attributed to increased fossil fuel emissions.ย 

โ€œIn addition to the record high methane growth in 2020-2022, we also observed sharp changes in the isotope composition of the methane that indicates an even more dominant role of microbial emission increase,โ€ said Lan. The exact causes of the recent increase in methane are not yet fully known. 

NOAA scientists are investigating the possibility that climate change is causing wetlands to give off increasing methane emissions in a feedback loop. 

To learn more about the Global Monitoring Laboratoryโ€™s greenhouse gas monitoring, visit: https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/.

Media Contact: Theo Stein, theo.stein@noaa.gov, 303-819-7409

La Plata Electric bids adieu to Tri-State G&T — Allen Best (@BigPivots) #ActOnClimate #KeepItInTheGround

Downtown Durango on a Sunday morning. Photo credit: Allen Best/Big Pivots

Click the link to read the article on the Big Pivots website (Allen Best):

March 26, 2024

Directors say they see less risk going solo than staying tethered to their long-time wholesale provider

In putting together their annual meetings for members, Tri-State Generation and Transmission tries to put on a happy face of good health, team spirit, and forward movement. Thatโ€™s what associations do, of course.

A happy face will be harder to muster when Tri-State holds its annual meeting next week at the Westminster Westin hotel. On May 1 it will lose its single largest member, United Power, which alone is responsible for more than 20% of the electricity supplied by Tri-State.

And on Monday morning [March 22, 2024], directors of another cooperative, Durango-based La Plata Electric Association, voted to serve notice of the coopโ€™s plans to exit in two years. La Plata is the fifth largest of Tri-Stateโ€™s 42 members, responsible for 5.7% of the total demand over a three-year period.

โ€œWe have kicked the tires,โ€ said one of the directors, Rachel Landis, moments before the 9-to-3 vote. โ€œWe have been staying up late at night.โ€

โ€œItโ€™s a big day, a monumental day,โ€ said Ted Compton, the chair of the board of directors, in a later interview with Big Pivots. โ€œNobody thinks that this decision will make our lives in this coop easy at all, but we have self-determination to make the choice that we want and our members want.โ€

La Plata has been studying its options for the last five years. At one point, in 2021, it chose a partial-requirements contract with Tri-State. The co-op even had an alternative supplier for 50% of the generation. But that approach went nowhere as the formula got balled up in the review by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, or FERC. Still, it left a sour taste still evident on the tongues of some directors.

Smaller tent needed

In 2026, when La Plata leaves, Tri-State will be left with 38 members. Also leaving in the interim will be Granby-based Mountain Parks Electric in Colorado and Nebraskaโ€™s Northwest Rural Public Power District.

For many years Tri-State had 44 members. The exodus began in 2016 when Kit Carson Electric of Taos, N.M., left Tri-State to pursue a different vision. Some wondered about the disaster ahead. Kit Carson had to pay $37 million to break its all-requirements contract to 2040. It hooked up with a new company, Denver-based Guzman Energy, which had no power generation of its own โ€” although it now does.

Instead of a disaster, Kit Carson has triumphed. In June 2023 it made the final payment to Tri-State while also completing enough new solar to meet 100% of daytime needs in its service territory in northern New Mexico. It has also been building microgrids and pursuing hydrogen as a storage solution.

A retired Tri-State employee who lives in the Durango area urged the directors to stick with Tri-State. The utility can do renewables at scale, he said.

โ€œPlease do not try to get out of this contract with Tri-State,โ€ said one woman, who said she was from rural La Plata County.

Another speculated that La Plata will have to pay $200 million or more to break its contract with Tri-State. Even if La Plata saves money, he added, โ€œMy kids will have grown up by the time we recoup $200 million.โ€

Compton, in his interview with Big Pivots, declined to give a figure. Tri-State, in a statement posted after the La Plata decision,  said that the estimated value of La Plataโ€™s contract termination payment to Tri-State is estimated at $209.7 million, with a final amount to be calculated prior to withdrawal.

Mark Pearson, a Durango resident, pointed to Kit Carsonโ€™s success. โ€œItโ€™s not  like weโ€™re the first one out of the gate,โ€ he said. He cited a number of solar projects west and south of Durango. โ€œThere are an abundance of local energy sources that would be cheaper than our current contract with Tri-State.โ€

Directors supporting the exit emphasized their views that Tri-State has failed to be a viable partner. The contract to 2050 โ€“ agreed to in 2006 โ€” does not meet La Plataโ€™s needs now, they said.

โ€œWe need the ability to make decisions, be nimble, have flexibility, to have local generation,โ€ said Tim Wheeler. โ€œAnd the contract with Tri-State to 2050 does not present that at all. It represents something from 20 years ago.โ€

Decision to seek FERC regulation

Wheeler also cited the decision by Tri-State to seek regulation under FERC, which is far more complex,  expensive and time consuming than regulation under the state PUC. To do so, Tri-State had to create a new class of members in 2019 who are not electrical cooperatives. For example, it added a greenhouse near Fort Lupton and a hunting guide from near Craig.

Joe Lewandowski, a director from Durango, urged La Plata members to take the long view of 5, 10 to 20 years when viewing costs. He also suggested that there was more risk to staying with Tri-State.

Asked about risk, Compton offered a couple of analogies.

โ€œA lot of  people simplistically see this as a decision to stay on a stable ship and get what need or jump off and swim on your own. That is not the way that La Plata has evaluated this. We currently do not see Tri-State as a stable ship. There are a lot of chinks in their armor, and it makes us nervous to be attached to that.โ€

La Plata, he added, feels more comfortable charting its own course. Tri-State, he said, got off course by seeking federal regulaton.

Tri-State went into the energy transition carrying heavy debt. It has pinned much hope on federal aid through the inflation Reduction Act to cover the cost of retiring stranded assets even as it builds lower cost renewables and natural gas.

But Wall Street analysts in the last couple of years have taken an increasingly dim view of Tri-Stateโ€™s financials. For several years they have downgraded Tri-Stateโ€™s credit-worthiness in a series of financial appraisals.

And Compton observed that Tri-State has encountered many problems at FERC.

In its statement, Tri-State made its case for why it should be seen as a viable wholesale provider going forward. In 2030, when 70% of its energy comes from renewables, Tri-State is forecast to achieve an 89% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in Colorado from a 2005 baseline.

Tri-State  has not raised its wholesale rates since 2017 โ€“ with an average 6.36% wholesale rate increase proposed to go into effect in 2024. That is being held up at FERC.

โ€œTri-Stateโ€™s members have created tremendous momentum toward an energy transition that will provide long-term reliability and rate competitiveness, while reducing emissions and increasing flexibility to provide industry-leading optionality for members,โ€ said Duane Highley, Tri-Stateโ€™s CEO. La Plataโ€™s โ€œboard has chosen not to be part of this future and go it alone on a different path, even as the region faces increasing reliability challenges.โ€

Why now for this decision?

Why a special meeting for the decision? And why just 10 days after Jessica Matlock, the general manager for the five previous years, left for a job at a larger organization in the Pacific Northwest?

Compton said the timing of the decision had nothing to do with Matlockโ€™s departure.

But why not wait until April and the regularly scheduled board meeting? Because, he said, the board had decided the time was right to make the decision. It had all the information it needed.

He dismissed an observation made by the chief executive of another Colorado co-op that the timing allows La Plata to use its 2023 financials in its application to FERC. That will make La Plata exempt from any capital investments going forward such as new generation and transmission planned by Tri-State โ€” and hence might lower the amount that La Plata will have to pay Tri-State to exit.

Compton repeatedly characterized that observation as speculative. โ€œIt was just one of one of many factors that we saw coming in the April 1 timeline,โ€ he said.

La Plata has been a member of Tri-State since 1992 when it and other electrical cooperatives from Western Colorado joined in the wake of the bankruptcy by their former wholesale supplier, Colorado Ute.

Colorado Ute had over-extended itself to build three coal-burning units at Craig for an oil-shale industry that never arrived. Tri-State took over Colorado Uteโ€™s members and its coal plants at Craig. Now, Tri-State is struggling in part because of the cost burden of those coal plants that will be closed between 2025 and 2030.

Craig Station in northwest Colorado is a coal-fired power plant operated by Tri-State Generation & Transmission. Photo credit: Allen Best

Misplaced Trust: Stolen Indigenous land is the foundation of the land-grant university system. #ClimateChange is its legacy — Grist

Eliseu Cavalcante / Grist

Click the link to read the article on the Grist website (Tristan Ahtone, Robert Lee, Amanda Tachine, An Garagiola, and Audrianna Goodwin):

February 7, 2024

This project was supported by the Pulitzer Center, the Data-Driven Reporting Project, and the Bay & Paul Foundation.

Alina Sierra needs $6,405. In 2022, the 19-year-old Tohono Oโ€™odham student was accepted to the University of Arizona, her dream school. She would be the first in her family to go to college.

Her godfather used to take her to the universityโ€™s campus when she was a child, and their excursions could include a stop at the turtle pond or lunch at the student union. Her grandfather also encouraged her, saying: โ€œYouโ€™re going to be here one day.โ€

โ€œEver since then,โ€ said Sierra. โ€œI wanted to go.โ€

Then the financial reality set in. Unable to afford housing either on or off campus, she couch-surfed her first semester. Barely able to pay for meals, she turned to the campus food pantry for hygiene products. โ€œOne week I would get soap; another week, get shampoo,โ€ she said. Without reliable access to the internet, and with health issues and a long bus commute, her grades began to slip. She was soon on academic probation.

โ€œI always knew it would be expensive,โ€ said Sierra. โ€œI just didnโ€™t know it would be this expensive.โ€

Alina Sierra poses for a photo while wearing a locket containing the ashes of her godfather. โ€œHe would tell me, like, โ€˜Further your education, education is power,’โ€ she said. โ€œBefore he passed away, I promised him that I was going to go to college and graduate from U of A.โ€ Bean Yazzie / Grist

She was also confused. The university, known as UArizona, or more colloquially as U of A by local residents and alumni, expressed a lot of support for Indigenous students. It wasnโ€™t just that the Tohono Oโ€™odham flag hung in the bookstore or that the university had a land acknowledgment reminding the community that the Tucson campus was on Oโ€™odham and Yaqui homelands. The same year she was accepted, UArizona launched a program to cover tuition and mandatory fees for undergraduates from all 22 Indigenous nations in the state. President Robert C. Robbins described the new Arizona Native Scholars Grant as a step toward fulfilling the schoolโ€™s land-grant mission. 

Sierra was eligible for the grant, but it didnโ€™t cover everything. After all the application forms and paperwork, she was still left with a balance of thousands of dollars. She had no choice but to take out a loan, which she kept a secret from her family, especially her mom. โ€œThatโ€™s the number one thing she told me: โ€˜Donโ€™t get a loan,โ€™ but I kind of had to.โ€

Cacti grow behind a sign for the University of Arizona. Bean Yazzie / Grist

Established in 1885, almost 30 years before Arizona was a state, UArizona was one of 52 land-grant universities supported by the Morrill Act. Signed into law by President Abraham Lincoln, the act used land taken from Indigenous nations to fund a network of colleges across the fledgling United States. 

By the early 20th century, grants issued under the Morrill Act had produced the modern equivalent of a half a billion dollars for land-grant institutions from the redistribution of nearly 11 million acres of Indigenous lands. While most land-grant universities ignore this colonial legacy, UArizonaโ€™s Native scholars program appeared to be an effort to exorcise it. 

But the Morrill Act is only one piece of legislation that connects land expropriated from Indigenous communities to these universities. 

In combination with other land-grant laws, UArizona still retains rights to nearly 689,000 acres of land โ€” an area more than twice the size of Los Angeles. The university also has rights to another 705,000 subsurface acres, a term pertaining to oil, gas, minerals, and other resources underground. Known asย trust lands, these expropriated Indigenous territories are held and managed by the state for the schoolโ€™s continued benefit.

A parcel of land in Willcox, Arizona, granted to the University of Arizona. Eliseu Cavalcante / Grist

State trust lands just might be one of the best-kept public secrets in America: They exist in 21 Western and Midwestern states, totaling more than 500 million surface and subsurface acres. Those two categories, surface and subsurface, have to be kept separate because they donโ€™t always overlap. What few have bothered to ask is just how many of those acres are funding higher education.

The parcels themselves are scattered and rural, typically uninhabited and seldom marked. Most appear undeveloped and blend in seamlessly with surrounding landscapes. That is, when they donโ€™t have something like logging underway or a frack pad in sight.

In 2022, the year Sierra enrolled, UArizonaโ€™s state trust lands provided the institution $7.7 million โ€” enough to have paid the full cost of attendance for more than half of every Native undergraduate at the Tucson campus that same year. But providing free attendance to anyone is an unlikely scenario, as the school works to rein in a budget shortfall of nearly $240 million.

UArizonaโ€™s reliance on state trust land for revenue not only contradicts its commitment to recognize past injustices regarding stolen Indigenous lands, but also threatens its climate commitments. The school has pledged to reach net-zero emissions by 2040. 

The parcels are managed by the Arizona State Land Department, a separate government agency that has leased portions of them to agriculture, grazing, and commercial activities. But extractive industries make up a major portion of the trust land portfolio. Of the 705,000 subsurface acres that benefit UArizona, almost 645,000 are earmarked for oil and gas production. The lands were taken from at least 10 Indigenous nations, almost all of which were seized by executive order or congressional action in the wake of warfare. 

Over the past year, Grist has examined publicly available data to locate trust lands associated with land-grant universities seeded by the Morrill Act. We found 14 universities that matched this criteria. In the process, we identified their original sources and analyzed their ongoing uses. In all, we located and mapped more than 8.36 million surface and subsurface acres taken from 123 Indigenous nations. This land currently produces income for those institutions.

โ€œUniversities continue to benefit from colonization,โ€ said Sharon Stein, an assistant professor of higher education at the University of British Columbia and a climate researcher. โ€œItโ€™s not just a historical fact; the actual income of the institution is subsidized by this ongoing dispossession.โ€

Indigenous landgranted to universities

The amount of acreage under management for land-grant universities varies widely, from as little as 15,000 acres aboveground in North Dakota to more than 2.1 million belowground in Texas. Combined, Indigenous nations were paid approximately $4.7 million in todayโ€™s dollars for these lands, but in many cases, nothing was paid at all. In 2022 alone, these trust lands generated more than $2.2 billion for their schools. Between 2018 and 2022, the lands produced almost $6.7 billion. However, those figures are likely an undercount as multiple state agencies did not return requests to confirm amounts.

This work builds upon previous investigations that examined how land grabs capitalized and transformed the U.S. university system. The new data reveals how state trust lands continue to transfer wealth from Indigenous nations to land-grant universities more than a century after the original Morrill Act.

It also provides insight into the relationship between colonialism, higher education, and climate change in the Western United States. 

Nearly 25 percent of land-grant university trust lands are designated for either fossil fuel production or the mining of minerals, like coal and iron-rich taconite. Grazing is permitted on about a third of the land, or approximately 2.8 million surface acres. Those parcels are often coupled with subsurface rights, which means oil and gas extraction can occur underneath cattle operations, themselves often a major source of methane emissions. Timber, agriculture, and infrastructure leases โ€” for roads or pipelines, for instance โ€” make up much of the remaining acreage. 

By contrast, renewable energy production is permitted on roughly one-quarter of 1 percent of the land in our dataset. Conservation covers an even more meager 0.15 percent.

However, those land use statistics are likely undercounts due to the different ways states record activities. Many state agencies we contacted for this story had incomplete public information on how land was used. 

โ€œPeople generally are not eager to confront their own complicity in colonialism and climate change,โ€ said Stein. โ€œBut we also have to recognize, for instance, myself as a white settler, that we are part of that system, that we are benefiting from that system, that we are actively reproducing that system every day.โ€

Students like Alina Sierra struggle to pay for education at a university built on her peoplesโ€™ lands and supported with their natural resources. But both current and future generations will have to live with the way trust lands are used to subsidize land-grant universities. 

In December 2023, Sierra decided the cost to attend UArizona was too high and dropped out. 

UArizona did not respond to a request for comment on this story.

Acreage now held in trust by states for land-grant universities is part of Americaโ€™s sweeping history of real estate creation, a history rooted in Indigenous dispossession. 

Trust lands in most states were clipped from the more than 1.8 billion acres that were once part of the United Statesโ€™ public domain โ€” territory claimed, colonized, and redistributed in a process that began in the 18th century and continues today.

The making of the public domain is the stuff of textbook lessons on U.S. expansion. After consolidating statesโ€™ western land claims in the aftermath of the American Revolution, federal officials obtained a series of massive territorial acquisitions from rival imperial powers. No doubt youโ€™ve heard of a few of these deals: They ranged from the  Louisiana Purchase of 1803 to the Alaska Purchase of 1867. 

Backed by the doctrine of discovery, a legal principle with religious roots that justified the seizure of lands around the world by Europeans, U.S. claims to Indigenous territories were initially little more than projections of jurisdiction. They asserted an exclusive right to steal from Indigenous nations, divide the territory into new states, and carve it up into private property. Although Pope Francis repudiated the Catholic Churchโ€™s association with the doctrine in 2023, it remains a bedrock principle of U.S. law.

Native land loss 1776 to 1930. Credit: Alvin Chang/Ranjani Chakraborty

Starting in the 1780s, federal authorities began aggressively taking Native land before surveying and selling parcels to new owners. Treaties were the preferred instrument, accompanied by a range of executive orders and congressional acts. Behind their tidy legal language and token payments lay actual or threatened violence, or the use of debts or dire conditions, such as starvation, to coerce signatures from Indigenous peoples and compel relocation. 

By the 1930s, tribal landholdings in the form of reservations covered less than 2 percent of the United States. Most were located in places with few natural resources and more sensitive to climate change than their original homelands. When reservations proved more valuable than expected, due to the discovery of oil, for instance, outcomes could be even worse, as viewers of Killers of the Flower Moon learned last year.   

The public domain once covered three-fourths of what is today the United States. Federal authorities still retain about 30 percent of this reservoir of plundered land, most conspicuously as national parks, but also as military bases, national forests, grazing land, and more. The rest, nearly 1.3 billion acres, has been redistributed to new owners through myriad laws.

A waste pond on a land-grant parcel in Carlsbad, New Mexico. Eliseu Cavalcante / Grist

When it came to redistribution, grants of various stripes were more common than land sales. Individuals and corporate grantees โ€” think homesteaders or railroads โ€” were prominent recipients, but in terms of sheer acreage given, they trailed a third group: state governments. 

Federal-to-state grants were immense. Cram them all together and they would comfortably cover all of Western Europe. Despite their size and ongoing financial significance, they have never attracted much attention outside of state offices and agencies responsible for managing them.

The Morrill Act, one of the best known examples of federal-to-state grants, followed a well-established path for funding state institutions. This involved handing Indigenous land to state legislatures so agencies could then manage those lands on behalf of specifically chosen beneficiaries.  

Many other laws subsidized higher education by issuing grants to state or territorial governments in a similar way. The biggest of those bounties came through so-called โ€œenabling actsโ€ that authorized U.S. territories to graduate to statehood. 

Every new state carved out of the public domain in the contiguous United States received land grants for public institutions through their enabling acts. These grants functioned like dowries for joining the Union and funded a variety of public works and state services ranging from penitentiaries to fish hatcheries. Their main function, however, was subsidizing education.

Since time immemorial, Indigenous peoples have lived with, and cared for, the lands they call home. But as settlers moved west, U.S. government and military officials forced those communities from their lands, sometimes through the signing of treaties, sometimes through military action. Once ceded, those lands became territories and then states. With statehood, those lands became part of America’s real estate system.

Lands inside newly formed states were overlaid with the Public Land Survey System โ€” a rectangular survey system designed by early colonists to map newly acquired Indigenous lands. One 6-by-6 mile square on the grid is known as a township. Inside each township are 36 more 1-by-1 mile squares called sections.

In most states, sections 16 and 36 of every township were automatically set aside to fund K-12 schools, known as common schools at the time. From the remaining 34 sections, states could choose which lands would benefit other public institutions, like hospitals, penitentiaries, and universities.

In the years since statehood, some of these lands have been sold or swapped, but most Western states have held onto their trust lands. Spread across the Western U.S. land grid, trust lands are often unseen, landlocked, and anonymous on the landscape.

Primary and secondary schools, or K-12 schools, were the greatest beneficiaries by far, followed by institutions of higher education. What remains of them today are referred to as trust lands. โ€œA perpetual, multigenerational land trust for the support of the Beneficiaries and future generationsโ€ is how the Arizona State Land Department describes them.

Higher education grants were earmarked for universities, teachers colleges, mining schools, scientific schools, and agricultural colleges, the latter being the means through which states that joined the Union after 1862 got their Morrill Act shares. States could separate or consolidate their benefits as they saw fit, which resulted in many grants becoming attached to Morrill Act colleges.  

Originally, the land was intended to be sold to raise capital for trust funds. By the late 19th century, however, stricter requirements on sales and a more conscientious pursuit of long-term gains reduced sales in favor of short-term leasing. 

The change in management strategy paid off. Many state land trusts have been operating for more than a century. In that time, they have generated rents from agriculture, grazing, and recreation. As soon as they were able, managers moved into natural resource extraction, permitting oil wells, logging, mining, and fracking. 

Land use decisions are typically made by state land agencies or lawmakers. Of the six land-grant institutions that responded to requests for comment on this investigation, those that referenced their trust lands deferred to state agencies, making clear that they had no control over permitted activities.

Credit: Grist

State agencies likewise receive and distribute the income. As money comes in, it is either delivered directly to beneficiaries or, more commonly, diverted to permanent state trust funds, which invest the proceeds and make scheduled payouts to support select public services and institutions. 

These trusts have a fiduciary obligation to generate profit for institutions, not minimize environmental damage. Although some of the permitted activities are renewable and low-impact, others are quietly stripping the land. All of them fill public coffers with proceeds derived from ill-gotten resources.

For a $10 fee last December, anyone in New Mexico could chop down a Christmas tree in a pine stand on a patch of state trust land just off Highway 120 near Black Lake, southeast of Taos. The rules: Pay your fee, bring your permit, choose a tree, and leave nothing behind but a stump less than 6 inches high.

โ€œThe holidays are a time we should be enjoying our loved ones, not worrying about the cost of providing a memorable experience for our kids,โ€ said Commissioner of Public Lands Stephanie Garcia Richard, adding that โ€œthe nominal fee it costs for a permit will directly benefit New Mexico public schools, so it supports a good cause too.โ€ The offer has been popular enough to keep the program running for several years.

The New Mexico State Land Office, sometimes described by state legislators as โ€œthe most powerful office youโ€™ve never heard of,โ€ has been a successful operation for a very long time. Since it started reporting revenue in 1900, itโ€™s generated well over $42 billion in 2023 dollars.

All that money isnโ€™t from Christmas trees.

For generations, oil and gas royalties have fueled the stateโ€™s trust land revenue, with a portion of the funds designated for New Mexico State University, or NMSU, a land-grant school founded in 1888 when New Mexico was still a territory.

New Mexico State University, as seen in an aerial view, is a land-grant school founded in 1888. Eliseu Cavalcante / Grist

The oil comes from drilling in the northwestern fringe of the Permian Basin, one of the oldest targets of large-scale oil production in the United States. Corporate descendants of Standard Oil, the infamous monopoly controlled by John D. Rockefeller, were operating in the Permian as early as the 1920s. Despite being a consistent source of oil, prospects for exploitation dimmed by the late 20th century, before surging again in the 21st. Today, itโ€™s more profitable than ever.

In recent decades, more sophisticated exploration techniques have revealed more โ€œrecoverableโ€ fossil fuel in the Permian than previously believed. A 2018 report by the United States Geological Survey pegged the volume at 46.3 billion barrels of oil and 281 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, which made the Permian the largest oil and gas deposit in the nation. Analysts, shocked at the sheer volume, and the money to be made, have taken to crowningthe Permian the โ€œKing of Shale Oil.โ€ Critics concerned with the climate impact of the expanding operations call it a โ€œcarbon bomb.โ€

As oil and gas extraction spiked, so did New Mexicoโ€™s trust land receipts. In the last 20 years, oil and gas has generated between 91 and 97 percent of annual trust land revenue. It broke annual all-time highs in half of those years, topping $1 billion for the first time in 2019 and reaching $2.75 billion last year. Adjusted for inflation, more than 20 percent of New Mexicoโ€™s trust land income since 1900 has arrived in just the last five years.

โ€œEvery dollar earned by the Land Office,โ€ Commissioner Richard said when revenues broke the billion-dollar barrier, โ€œis a dollar taxpayers do not have to pay to support public institutions.โ€

Credit: Grist

Trust land as a cost-free source of subsidies for citizens is a common framing. In 2023, Richard declared that her office had saved every New Mexico taxpayer $1,500 that year. The press release did not mention oil or gas, or Apache bands in the state.

Virtually all of the trust land in New Mexico, including 186,000 surface acres and 253,000 subsurface acres now benefiting NMSU, was seized from various Apache bands during the so-called Apache Wars. Often reduced to the iconic photograph of Geronimo on one knee, rifle in hand, hostilities began in 1849, and they remain the longest-running military conflict in U.S. history, continuing until 1924.

In 2019, newly elected New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham began aligning state policy with โ€œscientific consensus around climate change.โ€ According to the stateโ€™s climate action website, New Mexico is working to tackle climate change by transitioning to clean electricity, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, supporting an economic transition from coal to clean energy, and shoring up natural resource resilience.

โ€œNew Mexico is serious about climate change โ€” and we have to be. We are already seeing drier weather and rising temperatures,โ€ the governor wrote on the stateโ€™s website. โ€œThis administration is committed not only to preventing global warming, but also preparing for its effects today and into the future.โ€

No mention was made of increasingly profitable oil and gas extraction on trust lands or their production in the Permian. In 2023, just one 240-acre parcel of land benefiting NMSU was leased for five years for $6 million. 

NMSU did not respond to a request for comment on this story.


More than half of the acreage uncovered in our investigation appears in oil-rich West Texas, the equivalent of more than 3 million football fields. It benefits Texas A&M.

Take the long drive west along I-10 between San Antonio and El Paso, in the southwest region of the Permian Basin, and youโ€™ll pass straight through several of those densely packed parcels without ever knowing it โ€” theyโ€™re hidden in plain sight on the arid landscape. These tracts, and others not far from the highway, were Mescalero Apache territory. Kiowas and Comanches relinquished more parcels farther north.

A flare glows on a land-grant parcel in Pyote, Texas, associated with Texas A&M. Eliseu Cavalcante / Grist

In the years after the Civil War, a โ€œpeace commissionโ€ pressured Comanche and Kiowa leaders for an agreement that would secure land for tribes in northern Texas and Oklahoma. Within two years, federal agents dramatically reduced the size of the resulting reservation with another treaty, triggering a decade of conflict.

The consequences were disastrous. Kiowas and Comanches lost their land to Texas and their populations collapsed. Between the 1850s and 1890s, Kiowas lost more than 60 percent of their people to disease and war, while Comanches lost nearly 90 percent.

If this general pattern of colonization and genocide was a common one, the trajectory that resulted in Texas A&Mโ€™s enormous state land trust was not.

Texas was never part of the U.S. public domain. Its brief stint as an independent nation enabled it to enter the Union as a state, skipping territorial status completely. As a result, like the original 13 states, it claimed rights to sell or otherwise distribute all the not-yet-privatized land within its borders.

Following the broader national model, but ratcheting up the scale, Texas would allocate over 2 million acres to subsidize higher education. 

Texas A&M was established to take advantage of a Morrill Act allocation of 180,000 acres, and opened its doors in 1876. The same year, Texas allocated a million acres of trust lands, followed by another million in 1883, nearly all of it on land relinquished in treaties from the mid-1860s.

Today, the Permanent University Fund derived from that land is worth nearly $34 billion. Thatโ€™s thanks to oil, of course, which has been flowing from the universityโ€™s trust lands since 1923. In 2022 alone, Texas trust lands produced $2.2 billion in revenue.

The Kiowa and Comanche were ultimately paid about 2 cents per acre for their land. The Mescalero Apache received nothing. 

Texas A&M did not respond to a request for comment on this story.


For more than a century, logging has been the main driver of Washington State Universityโ€™s trust land income, on land taken from 21 Indigenous nations, especially the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation. About 86,000 acres, more than half of the surface trust lands allocated to Washington State University, or WSU, are located inside Yakama land cessions, which started in 1855. Between 2018 and 2022, trust lands produced nearly $78.5 million in revenue almost entirely from timber. 

But it isnโ€™t a straight line to the universityโ€™s bank account.

โ€œThe university does not receive the proceeds from timber sales directly,โ€ said Phil Weiler, a spokesperson for WSU. โ€œLands held in trust for the university are managed by the Washington State Department of Natural Resources, not WSU.โ€

In 2022, WSUโ€™s trust lands produced about $19.5 million in revenue, which was deposited into a fund managed by the State Investment Board. In other words, the state takes on the management responsibility of turning timber into investments, while WSU reaps the rewards by drawing income from the resulting trust funds. 

โ€œThe Washington legislature decides how much of the investment earnings will be paid out to Washington State University each biennium,โ€ said Weiler. โ€œBy law, those payouts can only be used to fund capital projects and debt service.โ€

This arrangement yielded nearly $97 million dollars for WSU from its two main trust funds between 2018 and 2022, and has generally been on the rise since the Great Recession. In recent decades, the money has gone to construction and maintenance of the institutionโ€™s infrastructure, like its Biomedical and Health Sciences building, and the PACCAR Clean Technology Building โ€” a research center focused on innovating wood products and sustainable design. 

That revenue may look small in comparison to WSUโ€™s $1.2 billion dollar endowment, but it has added up over time. From statehood in 1889 to 2022, timber sales on trust lands provided Washington State University with roughly $1 billion in revenue when Grist adjusted for inflation. But those figures are likely higher: Between 1971 and 1983, the State of Washington did not produce detailed records on trust land revenue as a cost-cutting measure. 

Meanwhile, WSU students have demanded that the university divest from fossil fuel companies held in the endowment. But even if the board of regents agreed, any changes would likely not apply to the schoolโ€™s state-controlled trust fund, which currently contains shares in ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, and at least two dozen other corporations in the oil and gas sector.

โ€œWashington State University (WSU) is aware that our campuses are located on the homelands of Native peoples and that the institution receives financial benefit from trust lands,โ€ said Weiler. 


In states with trust lands, a reasonably comfortable buffer exists between beneficiaries, legislators, land managers, and investment boards, but that hasnโ€™t always been the case. In Minnesotaโ€™s early days, state leaders founded the University of Minnesota while also making policy that would benefit the school, binding the stateโ€™s history of genocide with the institution. 

Those actions still impact Indigenous peoples in the state today while providing steady revenue streams to the University.

Henry Sibley began to amass his fortune around 1834 after only a few years in the fur trade in the territory of what would become Minnesota, rising to the role of regional manager of the American Fur Company at just 23. But even then, the industry was on the decline โ€” wild game had been over-hunted and competition was fierce. Sibley responded by diversifying his activities. He moved into timber, making exclusive agreements with the Ojibwe to log along the Snake and Upper St. Croix rivers. 

His years in โ€œwild Indian countryโ€ were paying off: Sibley knew the land, waterways, and resources of the Great Lakes region, and he knew the people, even marrying Tahshinaohindaway, also known as Red Blanket Woman, in 1840 โ€” a Mdewakanton Dakota woman from Black Dog Village in what is now southern Minneapolis.

Sibley was a major figure in a number of treaty negotiations, aiding the U.S. in its western expansion, opening what is now Minnesota to settlement by removing tribes. In 1848, he became the first congressional delegate for the Wisconsin Territory, which covered much of present-day Minnesota, and eventually, Minnesotaโ€™s first governor. 

But he was also a founding regent of the University of Minnesota โ€” using his personal, political, and industry knowledge of the region to choose federal, state, and private lands for the university. Sibley and other regents used the institution as a shel corporation to speculate and move money between companies they held shares in.

n 1851, Sibley helped introduce land-grant legislation for the purpose of a territorial university, and just three days after Congress passed the bill, Minnesotaโ€™s territorial leaders established the University of Minnesota. With an eye on statehood, leaders knew more land would be granted for higher education, but first the land had to be made available. 

That same year, with the help of then-territorial governor and fellow university regent Alexander Ramsey, the Dakota signed the Treaty of Traverse De Sioux, a land cession that created almost half of the state of Minnesota, and, taken with other cessions, would later net the University nearly 187,000 acres of land โ€” an area roughly the size of Tucson.

Among the many clauses in the treaty was payment: $1.4 million would be given to the Dakota, but only after expenses. Ramsey deducted $35,000 for a handling fee, about $1.4 million in todayโ€™s dollars. After agencies and politicians had taken their cuts, the Dakota were promised only $350,000, but ultimately, only a few thousand arrived after federal agents delayed and withheld payments or substituted them for supplies that were never delivered. 

The betrayal led to the Dakota War of 1862. โ€œThe Sioux Indians of Minnesota must be exterminated or driven forever beyond the borders of the state,โ€ said Governor Ramsey. Sibley joined in the slaughter, leading an army of volunteers dedicated to the genocide of the Dakota people. At the end of the conflict, Ramsey ordered the mass execution of more than 300 Dakota men in December of 1862 โ€” a number later reduced by then-president Abraham Lincoln to 39, and still the largest mass execution in U.S. history. 

That grisly punctuation mark at the end of the war meant a windfall for the University of Minnesota, with new lands being opened through the stateโ€™s enabling act and another federal grant that had just been passed: the Morrill Act. Within weeks of the mass execution, the university was reaping benefits thanks to the political, and military, power of Sibley and the board of regents. 

Between 2018 and 2022, those lands produced more than $17 million in revenue, primarily through leases for the mining of iron and taconite, a low-grade iron ore used by the steel industry. But like other states that rely on investment funds and trusts to generate additional income, those royalties are only the first step in the institutionโ€™s financial investments.

Today, Sibley, Ramsey, and other regents are still honored. Their names adorn parks, counties, and streets, their homes memorialized for future generations. While there have been efforts to remove their names from schools and parks, Minnesota, its institutions, and many of its citizens continue to benefit from their actions.

The iron and taconite mines that owe their success to the work of these men have left lasting visual blight, water contaminationfrom historic mine tailings, and elevated rates of mesotheliomaamong taconite workers in Minnesota. The 1863 federal law that authorized the removal of Indigenous peoples from the region is still on the books today and has never been overturned.


Less than half of the universities featured in this story responded to requests for comment, and the National Association of State Trust Lands, the nonprofit consortium that represents trust land agencies and administrators, declined to comment. Those that did, however, highlighted the steps they were making to engage with Indigenous students and communities.

Still, investments in Indigenous communities are slow coming. Of the universities that responded to our requests, those that directly referenced how trust lands were used maintained they had no control over how they profited from the land. 

And theyโ€™re correct, to some degree: States managing assets for land-grants have fiduciary, and legal, obligations to act in the institutionโ€™s best interests. 

But that could give land-grant universities a right to ask why maximizing returns doesnโ€™t factor in the value of righting past wrongs or the costs of climate change.

โ€œWe can know very well that these things are happening and that weโ€™re part of the problem, but our desire for continuity and certainty and security override that knowledge,โ€ said Sharon Stein of the University of British Columbia.

That knowledge, Stein added, is easily eclipsed by investments in colonialism that obscure university complicity and dismiss that change is possible.

Though itโ€™s a complicated and arduous process changing laws and working with state agencies, universities regularly do it. In 2022, the 14 land-grant universities profiled in this story spent a combined $4.6 million on lobbying on issues ranging from agriculture to defense. All lobbied to influence the federal budget and appropriations.

But even if those high-level actions are taken, itโ€™s not clear how it will make a difference to people like Alina Sierra in Tucson, who faces a rocky financial future after her departure from the University of Arizona.

In 2022, a national study on college affordability found that nearly 40 percent of Native students accrued more than $10,000 in college debt, with some accumulating more than $100,000 in loans. Sierra is still in debt to UArizona for more than $6,000.

โ€œI think that being on Oโ€™odham land, they should give back, because itโ€™s stolen land,โ€ said Sierra. โ€œThey should put more into helping us.โ€ 

In January, Sierra enrolled as a full-time student at Tohono Oโ€™odham Community College in Sells, Arizona โ€” a tribal university on her homelands. The full cost of attendance, from tuition to fees to books, is free. 

The college receives no benefits from state trust lands.

CREDITS

This story was reported and written by Tristan Ahtone, Robert Lee, Amanda Tachine, An Garagiola, and Audrianna Goodwin. Data reporting was done by Maria Parazo Rose and Clayton Aldern, with additional data analysis and visualization by Marcelle Bonterre and Parker Ziegler. Margaret Pearce provided guidance and oversight. 

Original photography for this project was done by Eliseu Cavalcante and Bean Yazzie. Parker Ziegler handled design and development. Teresa Chin supervised art direction. Marty Two Bulls Jr. and Mia Torres provided illustration. Megan Merrigan, Justin Ray, and Mignon Khargie handled promotion. Rachel Glickhouse coordinated partnerships.

This project was edited by Katherine Lanpher and Katherine Bagley. Jaime Buerger managed production. Angely Mercado did fact-checking, and Annie Fu fact-checked the projectโ€™s data.

Special thanks to Teresa Miguel-Stearns, Jon Parmenter, Susan Shain, and Tushar Khurana for their additional research contributions. We would also like to thank the many state officials who helped to ensure we acquired the most recent and accurate information for this story. This story was made possible in part by the Pulitzer Center, the Data-Driven Reporting Project, and the Bay & Paul Foundation. 

The Misplaced Trust team acknowledges the Tohono Oโ€™odham, Pascua Yaqui, dxสทdษ™wส”abลก, Suquamish, Muckleshoot, puyalษ™pabลก, Tulalip, Muwekma Ohlone, Lisjan, Tongva, Kizh, Dakota, Bodwรฉwadmi, Quinnipiac, Monongahela, Shawnee, Lenape, Erie, Osage, Akimel Oโ€™odham, Piipaash, Oฤhรฉthi ล akรณwiล‹, Dinรฉ, Kanienสผkehรก:ka, Muh-he-con-ne-ok, Pฮฑnawฮฌhpskewi, and Mvskoke peoples, on whose homelands this story was created.

The amount of acreage under management for land-grant universities varies widely, from as little as 15,000 acres aboveground in North Dakota to more than 2.1 million belowground in Texas. Combined, Indigenous nations were paid approximately $4.7 million in todayโ€™s dollars for these lands, but in many cases, nothing was paid at all. In 2022 alone, these trust lands generated more than $2.2 billion for their schools. Between 2018 and 2022, the lands produced almost $6.7 billion. However, those figures are likely an undercount as multiple state agencies did not return requests to confirm amounts.

Heat pumps slash emissions even if powered by aย dirty grid — Grist

The shiny new cold-weather air source heat pump installed during summer 2023 at Coyote Gulch Manor.

Click the link to read the article on the Grist website (Alison F. Takemura):

Installing a heat pump now is better for the climate, even if it’s run on U.S. electricity generated mostly by fossil fuels. Hereโ€™s why.

March 17, 2024

This story was originally published by Canary Media.

You might consider heat pumps to be a tantalizing climate solution (they are) and one you could adopt yourself (plenty have). But perhaps youโ€™ve held off on getting one, wondering how much of a difference they really make if a dirty grid is supplying the electricity youโ€™re using to power them โ€” that is, a grid whose electricity is generated at least in part by fossil gas, coal, or oil.

Thatโ€™s certainly the case for most U.S. households: While the grid mix is improving, itโ€™s still far from clean. In 2023, renewable energy sources provided just 21 percent of U.S. electricity generation, with carbon-free nuclear energy coming in at 19 percent. The other 60 percent of power came from burning fossil fuels.

So do electric heat pumps really lower emissions if they run on dirty gridย power?

The answer is an emphatic yes. Even on a carbon-heavy diet, heat pumps eliminate tons of emissions annually compared to other heating systems.

The latest study to hammer this point home was published in Joule last month by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The team modeled the entire U.S. housing stock and found that, over the applianceโ€™s expected lifetime of 16 years, switching to a heat-pump heater/โ€‹AC slashes emissions in every one of the contiguous 48 states. 

In fact, heat pumps reduce carbon pollution even if the process of cleaning up the U.S. grid moves slower than experts expect. Theย NRELย team used six different future scenarios for the grid, from aggressiveย decarbonizationย (95ย percent carbon-free electricity byย 2035) to sluggish (onlyย 50ย percent carbon-free electricity byย 2035, in the event that renewables wind up costing more than their current trajectories forecast). They found that depending on the scenario and level of efficiency, heat pumps lower household annual energy emissions on average byย 36 percent toย 64 percent โ€” orย 2.5ย toย 4.4ย metric tons ofย CO2ย equivalent per year per housing unit.

Thatโ€™s aย staggering amount of emissions. For context, preventingย 2.5ย metric tons ofย CO2ย emissionsย is equivalent toย not burningย 2,800ย pounds of coal. Or not driving for half aย year. Or switchingย to aย vegan dietย forย 14ย months. And at the high end of the studyโ€™s range,ย 4.4ย metric tons ofย CO2ย is almost equivalent to the emissions from aย roundtrip flight from New York City to Tokyo (4.6ย metric tons).

Eric Wilson, senior research engineer at NREL and lead author of the study, told me, โ€‹โ€œI often hear people saying, โ€‹โ€˜Oh, you should wait to put in a heat pump because the grid is still dirty.โ€™โ€ But thatโ€™s faulty logic. โ€‹โ€œItโ€™s better to switch now rather than later โ€” and not lock in another 20 years of a gas furnace or boiler.โ€

Emissions savings tend to be higher in states with colder winters and heaters that run on fuel oil, such as Maine, according to the study. (Maine seems to be one step ahead of the researchers: Heat pumps have proven so popular there that the state already blew past its heat-pump adoption goal two years ahead of schedule.)

A dirty grid, then, doesnโ€™t cancel out a heat pumpโ€™s climate benefits. But heat pumps can generate emissions in the same way standard ACs do: by leaking refrigerant, the chemicals that enable these appliances to move around heat. Though itโ€™s being phased down, the HVAC standard refrigerant R-410A is 2,088 times more potent a greenhouse gas than CO2, so even small leaks have an outsize impact.

Added emissions from heat-pump refrigerant leaks barely make aย dent, however, given the emissions heat pumps avoid, theย NRELย team found. Typical leakage rates of R-410A increase emissions on average by onlyย 0.07ย metric tons ofย CO2ย equivalent per year, shaving the overall savings ofย 2.5ย metric tons by justย 3ย percent, Wilson said.

A 2023 analysis from climate think tank RMI further backs up heat pumpsโ€™ climate bona fides. Across the 48 continental states, RMI found that replacing a gas furnace with an efficient heat pump saves emissions not only cumulatively across the applianceโ€™s lifetime, but also in the very first year itโ€™s installed. RMI estimated that emissions prevented in that first year were 13 percent to 72 percent relative to gas-furnace emissions, depending on the state. (Canary Media is an independent affiliate of RMI.)

Both the RMI and NREL studies focused on air-source heat pumps, which, in cold weather, pull heat from the outdoor air and can be three to four times as efficient as gas furnaces. But ground-source heat pumps can be more than five times as efficient compared to gas furnaces โ€” and thus unlock even greater greenhouse-gas reductions, according to RMI.

How much could switching to aย heat pump lowerย yourย homeโ€™s carbon emissions? For aย high-level estimate,ย NRELย put outย an interactive dashboard. In theย โ€‹โ€œstatesโ€ tab, you can filter down to your state, building type and heating fuel. For instance, based on aย scenario of moderate grid decarbonization in my state of Colorado, aย single-family home that swaps out aย gas furnace for aย heat pump could slash emissions by aย whoppingย 6ย metric tons ofย CO2.

You can also get an estimate from Rewiring Americaโ€™s personal electrification planner, which uses more specific info about your home, or ask an energy auditor or whole-home decarbonization company if they can calculate emissions savings as part of a home energy audit.

One final takeaway Wilson shared: If every American home with gas, oil, or inefficient electric-resistance heating were to swap it right now for heat-pump heating, the emissions of the entire U.S. economy would shrink by 5 percent to 9 percent. Thatโ€™s how powerful a decarbonizing tool heat pumps are.

424.47 parts per million (ppm) CO2 in air 01-Mar-2024 — @Keeling_curve #ActOnClimate

#ClimateChange denial heats up at #Wyoming Capitol — @WyoFile #ActOnClimate

Senator Cheri Steinmetz (R-Lingle) chairs an official Senate Agriculture, State and Public Lands and Water Resources Committee hearing at the Wyoming Capitol in February 2024. (Mike Koshmrl/WyoFile)

Click the link to read the article on the WyoFile website (Mike Koshmrl and  Dustin Bleizeffer):

February 15, 2024

Sen. Cheri Steinmetz was clear: The committee chairwoman did not want to hear prevailing viewpoints about carbon dioxide and climate change.

Those who accept what climate scientists have known for decades โ€” that the planet is warming because of human-caused CO2  emissions โ€” need not speak up, the Lingle Republican said.

โ€œIf proponents of a different viewpoint wish to express that,โ€ Steinmetz said, โ€œthey are free to have a hearing of their own.โ€ 

That left room for only alternative theories, those that deny or discount the world-changing effect carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses are having on human beings, other species and the climatic conditions of the planet. 

Purported experts invited to testify, and other speakers, including each lawmaker who spoke, expressed either disbelief that climate change was happening, or a belief that it is inconsequential, even beneficial.

Speakers with the CO2 Coalition testify at a Senate Agriculture, State and Public Lands and Water Resources Committee hearing. The advocacy group is known for spreading disproven claims about climate change. (Ashton J. Hacke/WyoFile)

Flanking Steinmetz in the Wyoming Capitol extension building auditorium were four members of the Senate Agriculture, State and Public Lands and Water Resources Committee: Sens. Dan Laursen (R-Powell), John Kolb (R-Rock Springs), Tim French (R-Powell) and Bob Ide (R-Casper). 

They nodded and smiled as they listened to presentations from speakers brought in from the CO2 Coalition. The group touted its theory โ€” discredited by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other climate scientists โ€” that loading more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will not tip the planetโ€™s climate into unlivable conditions.

William Happer, a physicist and co-founder of the CO2 Coalition, told lawmakers and attendees that those who believe climate science have been brainwashed. 

โ€œI donโ€™t know how you deprogram people from a cult,โ€ Happer said, โ€œitโ€™s really sort of a cult.โ€

Pamphlets distributed by an advocacy group, the CO2 Coalition, were distributed at a Wyoming Legislature hearing this week. On the front, the pamphlet declares: โ€œCO2 should be celebrated, not captured.โ€ (Ashton J. Hacke/WyoFile)

But the science is clear. In fact, human-caused climate change has pushed Wyomingโ€™s annual mean temperature upward by 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit from 1920 to 2020, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data. Wyomingโ€™s highest elevations are warming even faster, already changing the seasonal pulse of water flows that the stateโ€™s economy is built around.

Climate change, which is already changing peopleโ€™s lives in Wyoming, will have a dramatic effect on temperature regimes all across the state, according to University of Wyoming climate scientist Bryan Shuman. A place like Jackson, he said, will go from virtually never touching 90 degrees to getting that warm with regularity. 

โ€œOn the track weโ€™re on by 2050, [Jackson] will pretty easily start to have about two weeks of 90 degree weather,โ€ said Shuman, one of the lead authors of the Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment. โ€œBy 2100, depending on whether we mitigate carbon emissions or not, [Jackson] either ends up staying around that two-week level or it gets up to about two months of 90 degree weather.โ€

Deniersโ€™ road trip

The CO2ย Coalitionโ€™s participation at the legislative hearing was part of a three-stop engagement in Wyoming. The Wyoming Republican Party teamed up with conservative group Turning Point USA to host speakers from the coalition for a series of events this week in Gillette, Cheyenne and at the University of Wyoming in Laramie.

Laramie resident Laurie Richmond attended the UW event and said sheโ€™s very concerned about Gov. Mark Gordonโ€™s policy goal to capture and store more carbon than is emitted. 

The governor, Richmond told WyoFile, wonโ€™t even give the CO2 Coalition speakers โ€œthe time of dayโ€ โ€” and she wasnโ€™t happy about it. 

Richmond worried about the economic burden of current state policies that attempt to force carbon capture retrofits at Wyoming coal-fired power plants. So far, Wyoming ratepayersย are being forced to cover more than $3 million in costsย for utilities to study the feasibility of adding carbon capture at five coal-burning units in the state โ€” studies that were mandated by the Wyoming Legislature. If the utilities actually implement carbon capture at the coal plants, Black Hills Energy customers in Wyoming could be tapped for up to $1 billion, and Rocky Mountain Powerโ€™s Wyoming customers could pay more than $2 billion, according to preliminary filings with the state.

William Happer, co-founder and Chairman of the CO2 Coalition, in the red tie, arrives at the University of Wyoming in Laramie Feb. 14, 2024. (Dustin Bleizeffer)

โ€œThis is all about government grifting,โ€ Richmond said. โ€œCan we really afford $1,000 electrical bills every month? So Gov. Gordonโ€™s got a problem coming.โ€

In the Capitol, Steinmetz said at the onset that the Senate Agriculture hearing wasnโ€™t intended to be a personal attack on the governor. That didnโ€™t stop speakers from taking shots at his policies. 

โ€œCO2 capture is unnecessarily costly and dangerous and therefore, it is not worth pursuing for the state of Wyoming โ€” or anyone, for that matter,โ€ Frits Byron Soepyan, a chemical engineer, told lawmakers. 

Gordon has defended his policies on national television, during his State of the State address and again Tuesday in Casper. 

The governor responds

โ€œThere are people that are going to say, โ€˜Climate is not changing.โ€™ Or theyโ€™ll say, โ€˜Itโ€™s better to have more CO2.โ€™ We can talk about all of that, but that doesnโ€™t really matter,โ€ Gordon said while speaking to business leaders in Casper on Tuesday.

More than 20 years of climate policy dictated from outside the state has moved markets toward lower-carbon energy sources, Gordon said. If Wyomingโ€™s coal, oil and natural gas are going to remain viable, those industries must have technical solutions to reduce their carbon emissions, the governor has maintained.ย 

Gov. Mark Gordon visits with City of Casper leaders during an Advance Casper event on Feb. 13, 2024. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

โ€œThe reason I say that it doesnโ€™t really matter [where Wyomingites stand on climate change] is that what we are seeing is a regulatory environment that says, โ€˜We need to move away from fossil fuels because thatโ€™s the only way that we can save the planet, and we need to move to renewables because thatโ€™s the only way that we can save the climate,โ€™โ€ Gordon said.  

โ€œThe most important thing is that Wyoming not stick its head in the sand,โ€ he continued. โ€œIf [carbon capture] isnโ€™t going to happen here, itโ€™s going to happen โ€” it is already happening in places like Texas and places like Louisiana. We really need to make sure that Wyoming is competitive, that it is a leader and that it is a place that people come to find the solutions.โ€ 

Gordon and his chief energy advisor, Randall Luthi, are working with Sen. Cale Case (R-Lander) and others on an idea that more equitably distributes both the cost of adding renewables and the cost of integrating fossil fuel carbon capture into the western electricity grid. All those capital costs โ€” as well as long-term benefits โ€” should be spread โ€œsystem wide,โ€ Luthi told WyoFile.

Wind turbines north of Medicine Bow, pictured Feb. 9, 2024. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

It will be a tough sell among Wyomingโ€™s counterparts on the western grid, Gordon admitted. But itโ€™s part of his signature โ€œDecarbonizing the Westโ€ initiative as chairman of the Western Governors Association. Ultimately, Wyoming cannot impose such a system-wide โ€œfeeโ€ on its own, Gordon told WyoFile. But the current electrical power regulatory regime doesnโ€™t fairly distribute the cost of pursuing a net-zero electrical grid. 

โ€œWeโ€™re all in this together,โ€ Gordon said. โ€œInstead of being a victim, Wyoming can say, โ€˜If youโ€™re really interested in doing something about CO2, we got the answer. We got the answer from the bottom to the top.’โ€

A state of climate denial 

Steinmetz and other far-right lawmakers in the Legislature have tried to capitalize politically on Gordonโ€™s carbon-capture advocacy. Itโ€™s fair to say their criticisms land with some residents of Wyoming, a state long financially dependent on revenue from carbon-producing industries and where fewer than half of residents believe humankind is driving climate change.

Approximately 38% of Wyoming residents believe โ€œclimate change is an extremely or very serious problem,โ€ and 46% โ€œhave noticed significant effects from climate change over the past 10 years,โ€ according to Colorado Collegeโ€™s annual Conservation in the West Poll, released earlier this month. Fifty-four percent โ€œthink that the low level of water in rivers is a serious problem,โ€ according to the poll.

Still, Steinmetzโ€™s and othersโ€™ efforts to make a spectacle of Gordonโ€™s carbon policies havenโ€™t gone over seamlessly. There was a fight, for example, over whether the Senate Agriculture Committeeโ€™s climate denier-led hearing should have been considered an official legislative event.ย 

In late January Steinmetz spread word of the hearing onย official Wyoming Legislature letterhead. She challenged the governorโ€™s authority to pursue a carbon-negative policy: โ€œThe Legislature must have a true cost-benefit analysis in order to make an informed policy decision regarding the governorโ€™s decarbonization plans for the state of Wyoming,โ€ the Goshen County senator said in a press release.ย 

CO2 Coalition Executive Director Gregory Whitestone spoke at the University of Wyoming on Feb. 14, 2024. (Dustin Bleizeffer/WyoFile)

The Legislatureโ€™s leadership didnโ€™t appreciate it. Two days later the speaker of the House, Rep. Albert Sommers (R-Pinedale) and the Senate president, Sen. Ogden Driskill (R-Devils Tower) sent out another press release purportedly uncoupling the event from the Ag Committee. 

Notice of the hearing, however, remained on the Legislatureโ€™s website, and under the banner of the committee chaired by Steinmetz. 

The Legislative Service Office explained the decision in an email: โ€œUnder the Senate Rules a chairman can convene a meeting of their committee at any point during a legislative session to discuss items they deem to be relevant.โ€ 

House Majority Floor Leader, Rep. Chip Neiman (R-Hulett), thought that leaving the hearing sanctioned was โ€œappropriate,โ€ given how โ€œdeeply involved agriculture is in the whole issue of climate change.โ€ 

Parroting disproven claims 

Shuman, the UW climate scientist, missed Turning Point USAโ€™s event with the CO2 Coalition speakers due to a conflict, but afterward he looked into their resumes and a short report they produced about Wyoming and climate change. 

โ€œThey are not climate scientists,โ€ Shuman said.

The University of Wyoming professor took issue with some of the graphics the CO2 Coalition speakers presented. He was โ€œshocked,โ€ he said, by one graph purporting that annual average max temperatures have declined over the last 90 years in Wyoming, a โ€œtruly misleadingโ€ assertion.ย 

โ€œBasically, every single weather station across the state refutes that this is the trend,โ€ Shuman said.ย 

Sen. Cheri Steinmetz (R-Lingle) gives remarks at a press conference that followed a legislative hearing that promoted disproven claims about climate change. (Mike Koshmrl/WyoFile)

Nevertheless, the CO2 Coalition speakers had a receptive audience with the Senate Ag Committee. The next day, Steinmetz and other hardline Republican members of the Legislature gathered for a follow-up press conference. 

โ€œOur voters โ€” the citizens of Wyoming โ€” are rightly skeptical of this so-called crisis and permanent carbon capture and sequestration,โ€ Steinmetz said. 

Ten members of the Legislature, plus Secretary of State Chuck Gray, spoke after Steinmetz. Some doubted climate change was happening, while others challenged the need to act and take steps like sequestering carbon. Yet other legislators repeated the CO2 Coalitionโ€™s primary disproven message: that the primary gas accelerating the climate crisis is actually beneficial. 

โ€œWe all know CO2 is good,โ€ said Sen. Dan Laursen (R-Powell), a hydrographer with the State Engineerโ€™s Office. โ€œPlants have to have it. The more there is there, the plants do better.โ€ 

Sen. Tim French (R-Powell) agreed.ย 

Sen. Tim French (R-Powell) gives remarks at a press conference that followed a legislative hearing that promoted disproven claims about climate change. (Mike Koshmrl/WyoFile)

โ€œAs a farmer, I need a lot of CO2 to grow my crops,โ€ French said. โ€œThereโ€™s a lot of hype out there from different individuals, but in my world, my business, I really need it.โ€ 

Climate scientists, however, came to consensus decades ago that the atmosphere needs less CO2 โ€” at least if the goal is to inhabit a planet resembling the one we know today. In the middle of the 20th century the average annual temperature in Wyoming was about 40 degrees, Shuman said. Today, itโ€™s approaching 43 degrees. 

โ€œWhile that doesnโ€™t sound like a huge amount, itโ€™s worth keeping in mind that the difference between the last ice age and today is only about 5 to 7 degrees,โ€ Shuman said. โ€œEven a few degrees makes a big difference.โ€ย 

The Global Monitoring Division of NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory has measured carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases for several decades at a globally distributed network of air sampling sites. Credit: NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory