โItโs been pretty significant, the jump that weโve received in the last roughly week or so,โ said James Heath, division engineer for the Colorado Division of Water Resources.
Before this past week, โWe were tracking alongside some of our worst years for snowpack,โ such as 2002, 2012 and 2018, Heath said. But double-digit snowfall, which for some mountain areasย translated to multiple feet of snow,ย caused snowpack levels to surge.
Some regions are trending above the state average, such as the Colorado Headwaters River Basin, which includes central and northern mountain areas. As of Tuesday,ย the basin was at 96% of the average…Snowpack measures the amount of water held in the snow, which is referred to as the snow water equivalent. In an average season for the Colorado Headwaters, the snow water equivalent will peak at 17.5 inches, representing the amount of water predicted to melt and become runoff in the late spring and early summer.ย Within the past week, the snowpack netted roughly 2 inches of water, rising from 5.4 inches on Jan. 9 to 7.7 inches on Jan. 16. Tracking the snow water equivalent can be a critical indicator for how full reservoirs will be come summer…
Systemic roadblocks in the U.S. legal system have thwarted efforts to advance the rights of nature movement. The Colorado advocates are testing a new approach.
A town in Colorado has appointed two legal guardians to act on behalf of natureโin this case, a section of Boulder Creek and its watershed situated within the town of Nederland.
Activists are hailing the move as the first time humans have been appointed to act as legal guardians for nature within the United States, where the so-called rights of nature movement has had a hard time advancing laws that recognized the rights of rivers, forests, animals and ecosystems.
Earlier this month, the Board of Trustees in Nederland, 45 miles northwest of Denver, authorized the appointment of two guardians to represent Boulder Creek and the watershed for purposes of preparing annual reports about the ecosystemsโ health and to make recommendations on improving water quality, wildlife habitats and wetlands protection.
The board, the townโs legislative body, approved Nederland residents Alan Apt, an author and former board member, and Rich Orman, a retired lawyer, as the ecosystemโs first guardians.ย
Legal guardians are regularly appointed by courts to make decisions for, and represent the interests of, children, incapacitated adults and bankrupt organizations.
Importantly, the Nederland board did not give Apt and Orman authority to sue on behalf of the watersheds or to be sued. That exception was aimed at averting pushback from opponents, according to Gary Wockner, the Colorado-based executive director and founder of Save the Worldโs Rivers and a rights of nature advocate.
In Florida and Ohio, where communities have passed rights of nature laws, the agriculture industry has successfully pushed for the enactment of state-level legislation preempting the local ordinances, rendering them void.
Rights of nature laws generally provide higher levels of protection to ecosystems and species than conventional laws, worrying some industry groups who say the laws could be used to block development.
Overcoming such preemption legislation requires a state level law or constitutional change. Even before voters in Orange County, Florida, overwhelmingly approved a ballot referendum in 2020 recognizing the legal rights of five waterways to exist, the conservative Florida legislature passed a law prohibiting localities from enacting such measures.
With those lessons in mind, advocates, including Wockner, are using a different tactic in Colorado, where there currently is no rights of nature preemption law on the books.ย
โWe chose to take a soft approach aimed at winning peoplesโ hearts and minds,โ Wockner said, adding that Nederlandโs resolution is aimed in part at educating people about the shortcomings of existing environmental laws.
Those shortcomings, according to Wockner, include who has legal standing to go to court and enforce environmental protection laws. Typically, to meet standing requirements, plaintiffs must, among other things, show that they have been injured and that the court has the capacity to grant some sort of relief that would benefit them, which has generally required that they be human.
Rights of nature advocates say that the system is based on the flawed premise that natureโfrom individual species to whole ecosystemsโis merely property that humans generally have the right to destroy. Typically, mainstream legal systems only consider the wellbeing of nature indirectly. For example, if land is illegally polluted, the owner of that land could ask a court to order a remedy for his economic, health or other damages. Generally, there is no way for the court to account for harm to the land in its own right.
That human-centered approach is criticized by advocates who argue that legal systems should be based on the reality that humans are part of nature and that, similar to humans, the natural world inherently possesses certain rights. They also point out that mainstream legal systems have long recognized that corporations, nation states and other non-human entities have legal rights and the ability, through guardians or other designated representatives, to go to court and enforce those rights.ย
Nature, too, advocates say, should have legal standing to assert its rights and request relief, such as for ecosystem restoration, even when there is no immediate human interest at stake.
In 2021, Nederland town took a step in that direction when it issued a nonbinding declarationย recognizingย that, within town limits, Boulder Creek and its watershed were โlivingโ entities possessing โfundamental and inalienable rights,โ such as to exist, to be restored and to provide an adequate habitat to native wildlife such as black bears, bobcats, brown trout and giant pine trees.ย
A previous attempt to advance the so-called rights of nature movement in Colorado was shut down in 2017. Attorney Jason Flores-Williams filed a lawsuit in federal court on behalf of the Colorado River Ecosystem and others, and against the state of Colorado, seeking judicial recognition of the ecosystemsโ rights to exist, flourish, regenerate and naturally evolve.
Coloradoโs then attorney general moved to dismiss the complaint, asserting that the suit contained various procedural deficiencies and threatened to sanction Flores-Williams, who, in response, withdrew the lawsuit.ย
Colorado Rivers. Credit: Geology.com
Since then, the town of Nederland and three other Colorado municipalities have enacted nonbinding resolutions recognizing the rights of theย Uncompahgre River,ย Grand Lake andย St. Vrain Creeks.ย
โWeโre working within the confines of the Colorado and U.S. legal systems, and nibbling away at them,โ said Wockner, the Fort Collins-based advocate. โItโs absolutely a long game, but there are a lot of people who think this way.โ
The Whanganui is a major river on the North Island of New Zealand. The Whanganui River is a major river in the North Island of New Zealand. It is the country’s third-longest river, and has special status owing to its importance to the region’s Mฤori people. In March 2017 it became the world’s second natural resource (after Te Urewera) to be given its own legal identity, with the rights, duties and liabilities of a legal person. The Whanganui Treaty settlement brought the longest-running litigation in New Zealand history to an end. Dana Zartner, CC BY-ND via The Conversation
At least six countriesโEcuador, Bolivia, Panama, Uganda, New Zealand and Spainโas well as some Native American tribes, have some form of national law recognizing the rights of nature or legal personhood for ecosystems. Many more nations have some form of court recognition or local laws recognizing the rights of ecosystems or individual species.
Some of those laws strictly recognize that nature possesses particular rights, like the rights to exist and regenerate, while other laws recognize the legal personhood of an ecosystem, which generally implies that the ecosystem also bears duties.
The U.S. Supreme Court has in multiple cases recognized legal personhood for non-humans, most prominently in Citizens United v. Federal Elections Commission, where it recognized the legal personhood of corporations.
Rights of nature laws also vary in who can go to court on natureโs behalf. Some provide legal standing to any person, while others, like Nederlandโs resolution, appoint specific guardians. In Colombia, where there is judicial recognition of the rights of the Atrato River, a court created a guardianship body, including members of riverine communities, to enforce the Atrato riverโs rights.
Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website (Laura Ciasto and Amy Butler):
January 16, 2024
Across the United States, many are experiencing the first big blast of Arctic air of 2024. Coats and gloves are emerging from the closets, and heaters are working overtime, with temperatures dropping more thanย 25 degrees below normal in some parts of the country.ย But the question on our mindsโฆthe ever-looming question everyone asks when the cold air spreads across the country โฆ the question that motivated this blog: Is the stratospheric polar vortex playing a role in this cold snap? Read on to find out!
Like parts of the United States, some flowers arenโt used to the cold and snow. Photo credit: Laura Ciasto.
Stratospheric shenanigans
If we had to characterize the behavior of the stratospheric polar vortex over the last week, weโd say itโs actingโฆsquirrely. Living up to the celebrity status we bestowed upon it, the stratosphere seems to know everyone is watching and has decided to do something unexpected.
For weeks now, weโve talked about the warming of the temperatures and weakening of the polar vortex winds that are 19 miles above us over the Arctic. So far, this disruption of the polar vortex has been minor, falling short of the wind reversal (west-to-east โ east-to-west) that defines a major sudden stratospheric warming. Ourย postย last week explained that this major warming event has been elusive so far due to the lack of waves propagating from the troposphere below to the main level of the stratospheric polar vortex. Minor warmings themselves are not unexpected. Nor are they generally expected to be felt all the way down at the surface.
Atmospheric conditions over the last week. In the last several days (left panel), the vortex in the lower stratosphere has been pulled apart from below with two smaller lobes emerging, one of which has been hanging out well above eastern North America. Itโs only in the last day or two (right panel) that this splitting of the vortex has extended up towards 10-hPa. NOAA Climate.gov image based on Global Forecast System data provided by Laura Ciasto.
But what makes the stratosphereโs current behavior unexpected and somewhat rare is that the polar vortex seems to be more disrupted at the lower levels, closer to the stratosphere-troposphere boundary. For more than a week, high pressure has been sitting in the troposphere over Greenland [footnote #1]. Itโs possible that the recent minor stratosphere warming reinforced this Greenland high pressure, which then drove a wedge into the stretched-out polar vortex in the lowest part of the stratosphere, splitting it into two lobes.
This lower stratosphere disturbance has been affecting the winds above it and looks to become just strong enough to fully reverse the winds of the polar vortex in the mid-stratosphere. A major sudden stratospheric warming is forecast to likely occur tomorrow. Normally, thatโs when the excitement about whether weโll see any surface impacts begins, as changes in the polar vortex communicate their way down to the lower stratosphere and sometimes the troposphere. But since the lower stratosphere has been perturbed for a while now, weโve already been on the lookout for changes in the troposphere.
Teasing the troposphere
Though we will have to wait and see how much this brief but major disruption of the polar vortex may influence weather patterns over the next few weeks, it appears as though the minor warming during the first week of January and the subsequent destruction of the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere were enough to at least help set the stage for the cold air outbreak over North America this past weekend. We havenโt talked much about the surface impacts yet, but we tend to think of it in a probabilistic sense: a disrupted polar vortex increases the odds that the tropospheric jet stream will stay shifted farther south, which increases the risk for cold air outbreaks over the eastern United States and Europe. Most importantly, this โloading of the diceโ for cold air can persist for up to 6 weeks after the vortex is disrupted, making these events relevant for weather timescales, but also for longer sub-seasonal forecasts (e.g., Week-2 to Monthly Outlooks).
Differences from average atmospheric thickness (standardized geopotential height anomalies) in the column of air over the Arctic from the troposphere to the stratosphere since mid November 2023. The lower stratosphere and upper troposphere have been most strongly connected for the last several days as denoted by the high thickness anomalies (orange areas, suggesting a weaker-than-average polar vortex). Based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) model, that connection may last for a few more days before weakening as indicated by the forecasted low tropospheric thickness anomalies (purple area) that do not extend into the stratosphere. NOAA Climate.gov image adapted from original by Laura Ciasto.
Itโs important to note that while the polar vortex may have played a part in nudging the current jet stream south, and may help that pattern persist, there are many other factors that go into a cold air outbreak. Other climate processes like the ongoing El Niรฑo also impact the location of the jet stream throughout the winter. And the jet stream doesnโt always need to be nudged by climate processes in the tropics or the stratosphere; it can nudge itself (what weโd call internal variability).
Lasting impressions?
Based on the recent forecast models, the full breakdown of the polar vortex into a major sudden stratospheric warming is expected to be brief. After that, the forecast average suggests the vortex will cease its shenanigans and strengthen again back to its normal speed. While the polar vortex in the mid-stratosphere tends to recover quickly after these disturbances, any effects on the tropospheric jet stream and its weather patterns could potentially stick around for a while. This doesnโt automatically mean more cold air outbreaks like weโve seen this week, but gives us a heads up that the risk of these events is slightly higher in the weeks to come.
Observed and forecasted (NOAA GEFSv12) wind speed in the polar vortex compared to the natural range of variability (faint shading). Based on the January 15, 2024 forecast, the stratospheric polar vortex winds will decrease to zero, just reaching the threshold of a major sudden stratospheric warming, in the next day or two. This major warming status will be brief and the winds are forecast to become westerly again, strengthening to their near normal state in the next week. The vortex may even become stronger than normal, based on the average of all individual forecasts, but that outcome is uncertain due to the large range of the individual forecasts. NOAA image by Laura Ciasto.
Footnotes
Sometimes a high pressure center will set up over a region (like Greenland) and sit there for multiple days. When this happens, the weather patterns that normally move from west to east are โblockedโ and have to move either north or south of the high pressure center. The persisting high pressure over Greenland is not uncommon in the winter and is sometimes called a Greenland block.
Image from Grand County on June 6, 2020 provided courtesy of Jessica Freeman via Colorado Parks and Wildlife.
Click the link to read the article on The Summit Daily website (Elliott Wenzler). Here’s an excerpt:
January 12, 2024
Wolves
While talking about his goals for the environment, the governor mentioned the reintroduction of gray wolves in Colorado, which began in December, as a way the state is โstrengthening native biodiversity and restoring balance to our ecosystems.โ
โWe also need to protect that progress by continuing to invest in nonlethal conflict minimization that works to help our farmers and ranchers thrive,โ he said…
Reducing fire insurance costs
Polis kicked off his speech talking about his top priority: housing. While he mostly focused on policies he hopes will help boost housing stock across the state, he also mentioned he would be supportive of legislation aimed at reducing the cost of fire insurance.
โEspecially in the face of increasing climate-related disasters like the Marshall Fire,โ he said.
A bill on the topic is expected to be introduced this session.
Mountain rail
Polis has also emphasized improved transit as a way to help make housing costs more affordable by allowing more density and making commutes easier. Part of that plan includes converting existing rail tracks from Winter Park to northwest Colorado into passenger rail. Itโs a concept thatโs been talked about for years and often thought of as an impossible โmoon shot,โ as Polis put it.
โIโm here to tell you itโs within reach,โ Polis said…
Water
In one of his only comments on the topic, Polis said the state โremains committed to aggressively defending Coloradoโs interests and rights in the Colorado River negotiations.โ
[…]
Polis also said the state is on track to meet its goal of reaching 80% clean electricity by 2030 and will soon release new goals for greenhouse gas reduction. โNow we need to cut red tape that is holding back local investments and unprecedented federal resources in renewable and clean energy,โ he said. Rep. Elizabeth Velasco, who represents Eagle, Garfield and Pitkin counties, said she was glad to hear the governorโs emphasis on clean air. โThose are things I see as very relevant towards our districts in rural communities in the Western Slope.โ
This photo depicting local river conditions in Mineral County, Nevada, shows some flows into braided channels, with surrounding hills and some tributaries dry. Photo submitted Dec. 28, 2023, via CMOR .
US Drought Monitor one week change map ending January 2, 2024.
US Drought Monitor 6 week change map ending January 9, 2024.
Changes to drought conditions varied widely across the U.S. during December. Improvements to ongoing drought conditions occurred in parts of the central Gulf Coast, central and southern Great Plains, Mid-Atlantic and western Carolinas, and Washington and Oregon. Degradations occurred across parts of the Ozarks, middle Mississippi and lower Ohio River valleys, northern Colorado, and southwest Montana and adjacent Idaho, among a few other areas. Outside of the contiguous U.S., some degradations to drought conditions occurred in Puerto Rico, while widespread improvements to ongoing drought occurred in Hawaii.
Nationwide, exceptional drought coverage dropped from 1.78 to 1.02%. Extreme or worse drought coverage dipped from 6.54 to 5.25%. Severe or worse drought coverage declined from 17.12 to 13.88%. Moderate or worse drought coverage decreased from 30.28 to 27.59%.
Drought Forecast
U.S. Monthly Drought Outlook for January 2024. Courtesy of NOAAโs Climate Prediction Center.
According to the January drought outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, drought improvement is likely in parts of the Pacific Northwest, from the Four Corners area to the U.S.-Mexico border, and from eastern Texas northeastward through the southeastern part of the Appalachian Mountains.
Within the contiguous U.S., drought is forecast to persist in areas where drought was ongoing near the end of December. Degradation is forecast across much of Puerto Rico and on the island of St. John, while improvement is likely on Maui, Kahoolawe, far western Molokai, far western Oahu and parts of the Big Island of Hawaii.
Temperature
Departure from normal temperature from Dec. 1 to Dec. 31, 2023. Courtesy of High Plains Regional Climate Center.
Most of the contiguous U.S. saw warmer-than-normal temperatures during December, with a few exceptions in southern parts of the Southeast region. The northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions all had much warmer-than-normal temperatures for December, especially in Minnesota, where most sites reported temperatures at least 12 degrees above normal for the month.
Elsewhere, temperatures in the West, southern Great Plains, and Northeast were primarily 3 to 9 degrees warmer than normal, with isolated warmer values. Southeast Alaska and the North Slope regions saw temperatures range from 2 to about 8 degrees above normal, while south-central and southwest Alaska were mostly 2 to 6 degrees below normal. Temperature observations in Hawaii were within a couple degrees of normal, with the exception of an observing site in the center of the Big Island. Temperature anomalies in Puerto Rico varied from 3 degrees warmer than normal to 1 to 2 degrees cooler than normal.
Precipitation
Departure from normal precipitation from Dec. 1 to Dec. 31, 2023. Courtesy of High Plains Regional Climate Center.
Percent of normal precipitation from Dec. 1 to Dec. 31, 2023. Courtesy of High Plains Regional Climate Center.
Drier-than-normal weather enveloped parts of central and western Montana, much of northern Wyoming, much of western Utah and portions of Nevada. Dry weather also occurred from northeast Texas to western Ohio, including portions of Mississippi and central Alabama.
Above-normal precipitation fell in southern Louisiana, the Florida Panhandle and along much of the Atlantic Coast. Wetter-than-normal weather also occurred in the Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, much of Kansas and Nebraska, and in eastern South Dakota and Minnesota.
Southeast Alaska received above-normal precipitation in December. In Hawaii, a mix of above- and below-normal rainfall occurred on Kauai and Oahu, while mostly below-normal precipitation occurred elsewhere. Well below-normal rainfall fell across northwest and parts of northeast Puerto Rico.
Regional Overviews
South Drought Monitor map January 9, 2024.
South
Warmer-than-normal temperatures were common across much of the South during December. Temperatures in Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, northern Mississippi and Tennessee ranged mostly from 2 to 6 degrees above normal. In a few locations in the northern reaches of Oklahoma and Arkansas, it was even warmer than that, with temperatures topping out from 6 to 8 degrees above normal.
Drier-than-normal weather enveloped parts of eastern Texas, central and northern Louisiana, southeast and northern Arkansas, much of Mississippi, and most of central and western Tennessee. A quarter or less of normal December precipitation fell near the Corpus Christi area, and less than half of normal precipitation fell at many places from northeast Texas through northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, northern Mississippi, and central and western Tennessee.
Wetter-than-normal weather occurred in south-central and southeast Louisiana, the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and northwest Oklahoma. Many locations in northwest Oklahoma and in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles recorded at least double their normal December precipitation.
A mix of drought degradations and improvements occurred across the South in December. Widespread multiple-category improvements occurred in southern Louisiana and Mississippi where above-normal rain amounts fell, and conditions improved by multiple categories in a small area of eastern Tennessee. Scattered one- and two-category improvements occurred in central and western north Texas, the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, and parts of northeast Oklahoma.
Meanwhile, primarily one- or two-category degradations occurred in parts of northeast Texas, southern and northern Arkansas, northwest Mississippi, and central and western Tennessee.
Exceptional drought coverage decreased from 10.17 to 5.44%. Extreme or worse drought coverage declined from 21.85 to 18.56%. Severe or worse drought coverage dropped from 36.13 to 31.94%. Moderate or worse drought coverage dipped from 55.05 to 52.4%.
High Plains Drought Monitor map January 9, 2024.
High Plains
Warm temperatures covered almost the entire High Plains region during December. The northeast half of South Dakota and most of North Dakota saw temperatures of 9โ12 degrees above normal, reaching 12โ15 degrees above normal in eastern North Dakota. The rest of the High Plains saw temperatures from 3 to 9 degrees warmer than normal, with a few higher readings mixed in. Above-normal precipitation fell across much of south-central and eastern Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas and the eastern Dakotas. Precipitation in Wyoming was primarily below normal, while precipitation anomalies varied in western South Dakota and western Nebraska.
Primarily drought improvements occurred in eastern Colorado, parts of Kansas, eastern Nebraska and southeast North Dakota. Degradations were common in north-central Colorado, the Black Hills, central and northern Wyoming, and eastern South Dakota. Exceptional drought coverage dipped slightly, from 0.56 to 0.03%. Extreme or worse drought coverage declined a bit, going from 3.31 to 1.97%. Severe or worse drought coverage decreased from 12.62 to 8.8%. Moderate or worse drought coverage dropped from 24.38 to 22%.
West Drought Monitor map January 9, 2024.
West
Warmer-than-normal temperatures covered most of the West during December. Temperatures from 3 to 9 degrees above normal were common across most locations, with central and eastern Montana reaching 9 to 15 degrees above normal. Drier-than-normal locations for December across the region included most of western Utah, much of Nevada, parts of northwest Arizona, much of Montana and parts of Idaho. Parts of eastern Washington, southern Arizona and New Mexico saw wetter-than-normal weather for December.
Improvements to drought or abnormal dryness were widespread in western Washington and Oregon, eastern Washington and northeast Oregon, the Idaho Panhandle, southwest Arizona and New Mexico. Degradations occurred in southwest Montana and adjacent parts of Idaho, as well as parts of northern Arizona and central Utah. Exceptional drought coverage was unchanged, remaining at 0.66%. Extreme or worse drought coverage declined slightly, from 5.22 to 4.67%. Severe or worse drought coverage dropped from 16.29 to 13.17%. Moderate or worse drought coverage dipped from 27.59 to 25.08%.
The long drive between Salt Lake City, Utah and Reno, Nevada on Interstate 80 feels endless, the landscape timeless. But these basins and ranges of the Great Basin Desert are changing dramatically.
Wildfire, climate change and aridification are transforming plant communities, while animals, including humans, try to figure out how to respond. Meanwhile, the dwindling Great Salt Lake risks becoming a toxic dust bowl.
Sagebrush now covers only half the territory it did before European settlers arrived with their livestock in the 1800s. Exotic annual grasses, including cheatgrass, have increased eightfold here since 1990, accelerating the fire cycle, outcompeting native plants and decreasing the available forage for grazers, wild and domestic.ย
Cheatgrass is an annual invasive plant that crowds out native plants in sagebrush range. Near Elko, Nevada. Photo credit: The Sagebrush Initiative
I called this place โthe sagebrush oceanโ when I first wrote about it in the 1980s. Now, scientists mourn the loss ofย 1.3 million acresย of healthy sagebrush each year, threatening animals that need sagebrush, like the Greater Sage Grouse and pygmy rabbit. Recent photographs of Nevada and Utah West Desert basins document a cheatgrass sea.
Researchers and federal lands staffers chant the management mantra for sagebrush ecosystems: โidentify the core, protect the core, grow the core, mitigate impacts.โ
But what is this dwindling core? Think intact ecosystems with abundant sagebrush and native understory, with minimal threats from invasive grasses, encroaching conifers or modification by people. Not much land fitting that description is left.
The core thatโs left is rare and vulnerable. Although the Intermountain West is no longer the exclusive domain of the livestock industry, grazing continues to affect more acres than any other human use. Large expanses of sagebrush with grasses and wildflowers eaten down to nubs by cattle do not constitute โrestoration.โ
That is why land managers are hard put to save threatened animals that need sagebrush, like the greater sage grouse and pygmy rabbit.
But the dilemma is this: Saving sagebrush puts the aromatic shrublands at odds with piรฑon-juniper woodlandโa landscape just as beloved, just as vital. Range ecologists believe that growing the sagebrush core means that half of the Great Basin woodlands need โtreatmentโโremoving younger stands of trees while retaining old growth forest. Treatment means ripping the trees from the earth with a chain stretched between bulldozers or โmasticatingโ trees to shreds.
A spree of โtreatmentsโ approved at the end of the Trump administration in 2020 opened millions of acres of woodland in the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau to destruction. I happened upon one such project in the Kern Mountains of easternmost Nevada last summer, where a crew had been contracted to thin a dense woodland. The crew created a firebreak, but I felt Iโd entered a war zone, with the scattered corpses of hundreds of trees littering newly cleared ground.
Before 1860, two-thirds of Great Basin landscapes in woodland habitat were treeless. Today, less than one-third is treeless, as trees decrease the acreage and vitality of sagebrush. But itโs unclear if sagebrush animals will repopulate cleared habitat anytime soon.
No more than half of tree treatments result in the regrowth of native grasses. Meanwhile, flocks of Pinyon Jays that depend on the trees suffer steep declines.
Hereโs the rub: both sagebrush and woodland landscapes harbor incredible biodiversity. Piรฑon or sagebrushโwhich matters most? To sage grouse, pygmy rabbits and piรฑon mice? To backcountry recreationists, to cattlemen? To Indigenous Great Basin Washoe, Paiute and Shoshone peopleโcitizens of what ethnobotanist Gary Nabhan calls โPiรฑon Nut Nation?โ
Piรฑon pine (Juniperus_occidentalis). Photo credit: Wikimedia
When you live in a piรฑon-juniper woodland, you live with the trees, not under them. โTreeโ usually means tall, vertical, but these trees often are round, comforting. I have enormous affection for the โp-j,โ my home territory. Yet who doesnโt love the smell of sagebrush after a rain and cherish its native wildlife?
As sweeping change comes to the Great Basin, federal managers need to address causes, not symptoms. Their challenge is huge: to confront invading cheatgrass and junipers and reverse the decline of sagebrush, nut harvests, native grass and birds. All this, while ensuring that mule deer and cows flourish.
If we want to heal the land and restore the balance between sagebrush and woodland, we need to treat these landscapes as we would with those we loveโusing every bit of wisdom from both western and Indigenous traditions for the benefit of our collective future.
Stephen Trimble is a contributor to Writers on the Range, an independent nonprofit dedicated to spurring lively conversation about the West,ย writersontherange.org. A 35thย anniversary edition of his book,ย The Sagebrush Ocean: A Natural History of the Great Basin, will be published this year.
Map showing the Great Basin drainage basin as defined hydrologically. By Kmusser – Own work, Elevation data from SRTM, all other features from the National Atlas. Rand McNally, The New International Atlas, 1993 used as reference., CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=12079426
The Women in Wildland Fire Crew led in line by Ashlynn Buschschulte, Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests, 2023. (USDA Forest Service photo by Julianne Nikirk)
Click the link to read the article on the USFS website (Julianne Nikirk):
January 5, 2024
Last summer, when a wildfire started near her hometown, McClane Moody saw groups of scruffy men running around in dirty yellow shirts, green pants and muddy boots. They were wildland firefighters working to control the blaze. Moody was intrigued. She wanted to help her community when it faced emergencies, too, but wasnโt exactly sure how. It never occurred to her that women also serve as wildland firefighters.
This would all change when she came across a wildland firefighter training program specifically for women in the rolling mountains of Alpine, Arizona where she, herself, got a taste of the physical and mental challenges that come with being a wildland firefighter. And learned that she could do it.
A Women in Wildland Fire cadet practices hoselays during Women in Wildfire Training, 2023. (USDA Forest Service photo by Julianne Nikirk)
โI didnโt even know this was a career field up until this past summer. I am definitely going to apply for a job in the field,โ Moody said after completing the week-long intensive program that introduces wildland firefighting to women.
With under 15% of wildland fire employees identifying as women, the Women in Wildfire Training Program aims to overcome barriers to equity that are still very much present in the industry. For participants, the intentional inclusion of women signals a โsafe spaceโ to learn and be among peers, encouraging people to explore a career in wildland fire management. In fact, many program participants, called cadets, would not have applied for the program if it was not geared specifically towards women.
โRepresentation matters. When you see yourself represented, you feel more welcome inherently and know youโll learn how to overcome some of those obstacles together,โ said Aubrey Hoskins, a recent program cadet.
Women in Wildland Fire cadets construct fireline during a training exercise, Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests, 2023. (USDA Forest Service photo by Julianne Nikirk.)
The obstacles Hoskins refers to include hours of digging handline, pushing through exhaustion while managing stress and demonstrating personal responsibility โ all skills needed for the job. The program forms women into firefighting crews to give them an โauthentic experienceโ of working on a real wildfire incident. Even in this simulated emergency environment, by design, the mental and physical fortitude required is very real.
According to the training organizers, known as the cadre, this is all part of the โtype two fun,โ a reference to the entry-level firefighter (type 2) qualifications the cadets are seeking. After successfully completing the program, these women leave with certifications that allow them to apply for wildland firefighter jobs. They also connect with an ever-expanding network of like-minded people and strong support structures.
โIt was great to learn together and not have gender be a barrier,โ recalled Cheyenne Lopez, a program cadet. โEveryone was super open to making connections and building relationships. I hope to see these people again someday.โ
And she very well may. Many of the people that organize the training were once standing in the cadetsโ boots. Over several years the program has hosted 65 students, half of whom gained employment in the Forest Service wildland fire program immediately upon completion. Now these same firefighters are sharpening their own leadership skills while giving back to the women following in their footsteps.
Ashlynn Buschschulte, a former cadet, now Squad Boss Trainee and member of the training cadre, shared her reflections.
โThe transition from cadet to cadre has been an opportunity to find a leader in myself and that capability of being able to make sure what Iโm doing is safe and effective for my crew. I have a better sense of responsibility for my crew. Itโs made me more confident in my choices and the way I think about fighting fire,โ she said.
Women in Wildland Fire cadets observe fire behavior on a prescribed burn, 2023. (USDA Forest Service photo by Julianne Nikirk)
While getting accepted into the program is competitive due to the limited number of cadet spots, the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests, which hosts the training, is working to keep up with the growing applicant pool. Placing new recruits in wildland fire jobs across the country is critical to addressing the nationโs wildfire crisis. And with the U.S. Forest Service employing more than 11,000 firefighters each year, the need is never-ending.
As Jasper Lanning, a training cadre member, explained, โTo get people that are passionate and actually want to be involved in this line of work takes time to build those experiences and give them a taste of what theyโre getting into.โ
Women in Wildland Fire cadets practice medical evacuation procedures, 2023. (USDA Forest Service photo by Julianne Nikirk)
The hope is investments like this will pay off by building a more inclusive future in an industry dominated by men. For the women who seek the challenge of the Women in Wildfire program they come away ready to help their communities by doing one of the most difficult jobs โ a calling that, regardless of gender, comes from deep inside.ย Colville National Forest,ย Employee Resources,ย Fire,ย Fire Prevention,ย Firefighters, employees,ย employment,ย women,ย women firefighters
Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website:
January 12, 2024
Earth had its warmest year on record; Upper-ocean heat content was record high while Antarctic sea ice was record low
Highlights:
NOAA ranks 2023 as the warmest year in its global temperature record, which dates back to 1850.
There is a one-in-three chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023 and a 99% chance that 2024 will rank among the five warmest years on record.
Upper ocean heat contentโthe amount of heat stored in the top 2000 meters of the oceanโwas record high in 2023.
Average annual Arctic sea ice extent was among the 10 lowest since 1979, and Antarctic sea ice extent was the lowest on record.
There were 78 named tropical storms across the globe in 2023, which was below average, and 20 in the North Atlantic, which was well above average.
Surface Temperature
In 2023, global surface temperature was 2.12ยฐF (1.18ยฐC) above the 20th-century average. This ranks as the highest global temperature in the period 1850โ2023, beating the next warmest year (2016) by a record-setting margin of 0.27ยฐF (0.15ยฐC). The 10 warmest years since 1850 have all occurred in the past decade. In 2023, global temperature exceeded the pre-industrial (1850โ1900) average by 2.43ยฐF (1.35ยฐC).
Temperatures were warmer than average over the vast majority of the Earthโs surface in 2023. Areas of notable warmth include the Arctic, northern North America, central Asia, the North Atlantic and the eastern tropical Pacific. Temperatures were cooler than average over relatively smaller areas, such as eastern and western Antarctica, the Southern Ocean near western Antarctica and southern Greenland.
Looking ahead, there is a one-in-three chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023 and a 99% chance that 2024 will rank among the top five warmest years.
Ocean Heat Content
Upper ocean heat contentโthe amount of heat stored in the top 2000 meters of the oceanโwas record high in 2023. Ocean heat content is a key climate indicator because the oceans store 90% of the excess heat in the Earth system. The indicator has been tracked globally since 1958, and there has been a steady upward trend since about 1970. The five highest values have all occurred in the last five years.
Snow Cover
Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent averaged 9.4 million square miles in 2023, which was slightly below average. Monthly extent ranged from 17.8 million square miles in January to just under 1.0 million square miles in August, both of which were below average. Snow cover extent records began in 1967.
Sea Ice Extent
Arctic sea ice extent averaged 4.05 million square miles in 2023, ranking among the 10 lowest years on record. The maximum extent in March was 5.64 million square miles, which ranked fifth lowest, while the minimum extent in September was 1.63 million square miles, which ranked sixth lowest. Sea ice extent records begin in 1979.
Antarctic sea ice extent averaged 3.79 million square miles in 2023, the lowest on record. The maximum extent in September was 6.55 million square miles, which was the lowest by a record margin. The minimum extent in February was 690,000 square miles, which set a record low for the second consecutive year.
Tropical Cyclones
Seventy-eight named storms occurred across the globe in 2023, which was below the 1991โ2020 average of 87.5. Forty-five of those reached tropical cyclone strength (โฅ74 mph), and 30 reached major tropical cyclone strength (โฅ111 mph). These also included seven storms that reached Category 5 (โฅ157 mph) on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. The global accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) was about 8% above the 1991โ2020 average.
The North Atlantic had 20 named storms, which was much above the 1991โ2020 average of 14.4. Seven of those were hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. The ACE was about 18% above normal. Idalia was the only billion-dollar hurricane to impact the continental United States in 2023. Hurricane Lee was the strongest storm in the Atlantic in 2023 and the only Category 5 storm.
December 2023
Global surface temperature in December 2023 was 2.57ยฐF (1.43ยฐC) above the 20th-century averageโthe warmest December on record. For the ninth consecutive month, the global ocean surface was record warm. Regionally, North America and South America each had their warmest December on record.
Credit: NOAA
Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in December ranked as the 11th-lowest December extent in the 58-year record. North America and Greenlandโs combined extent was well below average, ranking as the third-smallest December on record. Eurasian snow cover extent for December was slightly above average.
Global average sea ice extent in December ranked as the second-lowest December extent in the 44-year record (after 2016). Arctic sea ice extent was 4.63 million square miles, the ninth-lowest December on record. Antarctic sea ice extent was 3.35 million square milesโ16% below average and the second lowest for December on record.
Three named tropical storms occurred across the globe in December, which is half of the long-term average. Jasper reached major tropical cyclone strength (โฅ111 mph). The global accumulated cyclone energy was less than 50% of the long-term average for December.
In 2023, global surface temperature was 2.12ยฐF (1.18ยฐC) above the 20th-century average. This ranks as the highest global temperature in the period 1850โ2023, beating the next warmest year (2016) by a record-setting margin of 0.27ยฐF (0.15ยฐC). The 10 warmest years since 1850 have all occurred in the past decade. In 2023, global temperature exceeded the pre-industrial (1850โ1900) average by 2.43ยฐF (1.35ยฐC).
Last year, more than 40 percent of the Earthโs surface was at least 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than in the late 1800s, a Washington Post analysis of temperature data released by the nonprofit Berkeley Earth found…Roughly one-fifth of the globe has already warmed by more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6F) compared with the late 1800s, before humans started burning fossil fuels on a large scale. Around 5 percent of the planet has warmed more than 3 degrees Celsius (5.4F) โ a fast-warming area around the Arctic…Swaths of Canada and the northern U.S. saw temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, contributing to Canadaโs worst ever recorded wildfire season…Brazil, Paraguay and Bolivia all experienced unusual temperature spikes in 2023 despite warming more slowly in recent decades, according to Berkeley Earth data…2023 saw record levels of heat in the oceans too.
A bipartisan group of 16 U.S. senators representing ten western states on Thursday called on the leaders of the Senate Agriculture Committee to provide more resources to address long-term drought challenges in the region. The senators drafted the letter after conversations with Senate Ag committee staff have left them “concerned that drought provisions are at risk of not being included in the farm bill, a Senate staffer informed DTN…
Western farmers and ranchers need more resources to help conserve water, improve watershed scale planning, upgrade water infrastructure and protect the land from erosion. The farmers and ranchers in western states need a farm bill that provides support to conserve water, improve watershed scale planning, upgrade water infrastructure, protect land from erosion to help create more long-term resiliency to extreme drought conditions, the senators stated.
Perkins County Canal Project Area. Credit: Nebraska Department of Natural Resources
Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Alex Hager). Here’s an excerpt:
January 11, 2024
Nebraska is moving forward with plans to build a canal that would redirect some South Platte River water out of Colorado. The state bought about 90 acres of land in Colorado as part of construction plans. The purchase marks an important step for the Perkins County canal project, since critics haveย questioned its feasibilityย from the start. The canal was first pitched in January 2022 by then-Governor Pete Ricketts as a way for Nebraska to protect its water supply against rapid development on Coloradoโs Front Range. The plan would take advantage of a 1923 legal agreement about sharing the South Platte. The late-December land purchase is so far the only one Nebraska has made in conjunction with the canal project. The state spent about $90,000 on the parcel southeast of Julesburg. Jesse Bradley, the stateโs deputy director of Natural Resources, said it could be used โin conjunction with construction activitiesโ and may not contain the canal itself…
[Jim] Yahn detailed a few hurdles that could get in the way of the projectโs completion. First, they might have trouble filling the canal with water in the first place. Some nearby Colorado reservoirs have legal priority over Nebraska water users, and because the bulk of the water would be moved during non-irrigation season, it could literally get frozen by wintertime temperatures on its way to Nebraska. Yahn, who formerly served as the Colorado Water Conservation Boardโs director for the South Platte basin, also said Nebraska should be prepared to spend a lot of money in order to acquire land along the canalโs path.
The South Platte River Basin is shaded in yellow. Source: Tom Cech, One World One Water Center, Metropolitan State University of Denver.
Theย Colorado Climate Centerโs reportย on the 2023 climate year and its outlook on the future of our climate and our snowpack, is full of data that shows a trend we all saw coming: the seasons are getting warmer, the melt-off is happening sooner, and most of all, the snowpack is decreasing year after year.ย
Coloradoโs average temperature, season after season, since 1980 has increased by an average of 2.3 degrees. The winter has seen a 1.0 degree increase; spring has increased by 1.7 degrees; summer at 2.5 degrees; and autumn has seen an increase in temperature by 3.1 degrees.
โAnnually,โ the report says, โthe greatest warming has been observed over the Southwest and San Luis Valley climate regions.โ
The seven of the 10 hottest years on record have occurred since 2010. The rise in temperature means a reduced snowpack. Nothing is more of a key indicator for the health and wellness of Colorado than its snowpack.
Snowpack serves as a seasonal reservoir that stores upwards of 15 million acre-feet, on average, across the state. Colorado is a โheadwaters state,โ which means that four major rivers have their headwaters right here: the Colorado River, the Rio Grande, the Arkansas River and the Platte River.
Precipitation from snow is more likely to end up as runoff than precipitation from rain.
Credit: Climate Change in Colorado: A Report for the Water Conservation Board, Executive Summary
The 21st century record, which ranges from 2001 to 2022, showed an average of three percentto 23 percent lower snow water equivalent on April 1 than the 1951 to 2000 average.
Snow water equivalent (SWE) is the amount of water you get if you melted the snow down and were able to measure what was left. These measurements are more accurate than snowfall or snow depth, because those measurements donโt always account for a wide array of snow densities.
โThe largest decreases occurred in the southwestern portion of the state, specifically in the San Juan and Rio Grande basins.โ
Credit: Climate Change in Colorado: A Report for the Water Conservation Board, Executive Summary
Projections show a negative five percent to negative thirty percent measure of snow water equivalent by the year 2050. April 1 to May 15 is historically when true mountain runoff starts to occur with a change in temperature, but projections show that by 2050 that date will shift earlier by a few days then to a few weeks.
The 114 SNOTEL sites that give us this information are mostly situated between 8,500 feet and 11,000 feet elevation, and report data every hour. They are all monitored by the National Resource Conservation Service.
Studies showed that snowpack has decreased in many of Coloradoโs major river basins; however the percentage of decline when compared to other Mountain West regions was โgenerally smallerโ due to Coloradoโs higher elevations and colder winters.
โThese studies also found that warming temperatures were an important cause of the observed SWE declines, while below-normal fall and spring precipitation in the past few decades has also played a role.โ
Credit: Climate Change in Colorado: A Report for the Water Conservation Board, Executive Summary
Although larger snowpacks have become less common, big snowfall years like 2019 can and will occur.
Severe droughts are projected to increase, as well. โRegardless of changes in precipitation, it is likely that warmer temperatures will contribute to more frequent and severe droughts. Warmer temperatures will also decrease the benefit of wetter years.โ
โSouthwestern and South-central Colorado have experienced the largest magnitude
of warming.โฏ The observed warming trend in Colorado is strongly linked to the overall human influence on climate and recent global warming.โ
Over the next several decades, the report suggests, further and significant warming is expected in all parts of Colorado, in all seasons.
KEY REPORT FINDINGS
Temperature
Statewide annual average temperatures warmed by 2.3ยฐF from 1980 to 2022.
Only one year in the 21st century has been cooler than the 1971-2000 average. 2012 remains the stateโs warmest year in the 128-year record, at 48.3ยฐF (3.2ยฐF warmer than the 1971-2000 average).
The greatest amount of warming has occurred in the fall, with statewide temperatures increasing by 3.1ยฐF from 1980-2022.
Southwestern and South-central Colorado have experienced the largest magnitude of warming.
The observed warming trend in Colorado is strongly linked to the overall human influence on climate and recent global warming. The observed warming over the last 20 years is comparable to what was projected by earlier climate models run in the 2000s.
Further and significant warming is expected in all parts of Colorado, in all seasons, over the next several decades.
By 2050 (the 2035-2064 period average), Colorado statewide annual temperatures are projected to warm by +2.5ยฐF to +5.5ยฐF compared to a 1971-2000 baseline, and +1.0ยฐF to +4.0ยฐF compared to today, under a medium-low emissions scenario (RCP4.5).
By 2070 (the 2055-2084 period average), Colorado statewide annual temperatures are projected to warm by +3.0ยฐF to +6.5ยฐF compared to the late 20th century, and +1.5ยฐF to +5.0ยฐF compared to today, under RCP4.5.
By 2050, the average year is likely to be as warm as the very warmest years on record through 2022. By 2070, the average year is likely to be warmer than the very warmest years through 2022.
Summer and fall are projected to warm slightly more than winter and spring.
Precipitation
Colorado has observed persistent dry conditions in the 21st century. According to water year precipitation accumulations, October 1 โ September 30, four of the five driest years in the 128-year record have occurred since 2000.
Drying trends have been observed across the majority of the state during the spring, summer, and fall seasons.
Northwest Colorado summer precipitation has decreased 20% since the 1951-2000 period.
Southwest Colorado spring precipitation has decreased 22% since the 1951-2000 period.
Precipitation is slightly more favorable over the northern mountains during a La Niรฑa winter. For most regions and the remaining seasons, wetter conditions are slightly enhanced during an El Niรฑo.
The direction of future change in annual statewide precipitation for Colorado is much less clear than for temperature. The climate model projections for 2050 range from -7% to +7% compared to the late 20th century average, under a medium-low (RCP4.5) emissions scenario.
The model projections for precipitation change by 2070 are very similar to those for 2050.
Most climate models project an increase in winter (Dec-Feb) statewide precipitation; the model consensus is weaker for the other seasons. The models do suggest enhanced potential for large decreases (-10% to -25%) in summer precipitation.
“New plot using the nClimGrid data, which is a better source than PRISM for long-term trends. Of course, the combined reservoir contents increase from last year, but the increase is less than 2011 and looks puny compared to the โholeโ in the reservoirs. The blue Loess lines subtly change. Last year those lines ended pointing downwards. This year they end flat-ish. 2023 temps were still above the 20th century average, although close. Another interesting aspect is that the 20C Mean and 21C Mean lines on the individual plots really donโt change much. Finally, the 2023 Natural Flows are almost exactly equal to 2019. (17.678 maf vs 17.672 maf). For all the hoopla about how this was record-setting year, the fact is that this year was significantly less than 2011 (20.159 maf) and no different than 2019” — Brad Udall
What do you call a situation that remains a crisis, but has ever so slightly improved?
Iโm asking myself this as I look at the latest water level data for Lake Powell, the reservoir in Arizona and Utah that feeds the Glen Canyon hydropower plant and is a conduit for drinking water for parts of several states.
The level on Monday was 3,568 feet above sea level, according to the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that manages the reservoir and the power plant.
On the same day last year, the water was at 3,525 feetโa difference of 43 feet. That was close to the reservoirโs lowest level since it was initially being filled in the 1960s.
Both the current level and last yearโs are much lower than is optimal, following years of drought and overallocation of the reservoirโs water. But officials have some breathing room thanks to last yearโs wet winter, which led to an above average, and in some areas, record snowpack that helped replenish some of what had been lost.
โWeโve kind of been digging ourselves out of a hole,โ said Bart Miller, the healthy rivers director at Western Resource Advocates, a conservation nonprofit based in Boulder, Colorado. โThe one wet year that we had is only getting a part of the way there โฆ We still have a lot of work to do to put our demands for water back into balance with what the river provides.โ
Heโs talking about the Colorado River, which passes through Lake Powell. The Colorado River Basin is a source of water and hydropower for about 40 million Americans.
The lake and its 1,320-megawatt power plant get a lot of attention because of their importance to millions of water and electricity consumers, and because the water level has gotten perilously close to shutting off the flow to the power plant.
Lake Powell key elevations. Credit: Reclamation
If the level falls to 3,490 feetโ78 feet below this weekโs readingโwater will be too low to spin the turbines that generate electricity.
If the level falls to 3,370 feetโ198 feet below this weekโs readingโit would reach โdead poolโ status, when the water is too low to flow downstream from the dam. The results would be catastrophic for communities south of the dam, as David Dudley explained last year in Sierra magazine.
The Bureau of Reclamation does regular forecasts to have an idea of these risks. A report issued in August projects that there is essentially a zero percent chance that the power plant will be forced offline this year, but a 3 percent chance the water level will drop enough to force a shutoff in 2028.
Lake Powell is one several prominent examples of water resources that are at risk because of drought that climate change has exacerbated and the overallocation of the Colorado River. Downriver is another example, Lake Mead, whose low water levels have led to heightened concerns about the Hoover Dam power plant, as Rhiannon Saegert wrote for the Las Vegas Sun in August.
The Biden administration is working with states that rely on the Colorado River to find ways to conserve water and maintain adequate flow through Lake Powell and Lake Mead. The administration revised the operating guidelines for the lakes in April, including measures to better give notice to operators of irrigation systems and water utilities about water delivery reductions, and giving the Bureau of Reclamation more flexibility to conserve and store water.
โFailure is not an option,โ said Tommy Beaudreau, who was then deputy secretary of the Interior, in an April statement.
Hydroelectric Dam
Letโs take a few steps back. Hydropower plants have long been some of the most reliable sources of carbon-free electricity. The country gets 6 percent of its electricity from hydropower, which is more than any other utility-scale renewable source except for wind.
But drought and other extreme weather events are making hydropower increasingly volatile. The ups and downs show up in national figures; 2021 and 2022 were two of the three lowest years for hydropower generation since 2010, according to the Energy Information Administration. (This doesnโt include 2023, for which full-year records are not yet available.)
The shifts look ever more drastic at the state level.
From October 2022 to September 2023, hydropower generation in Washington Stateโthe national leader in hydropowerโwas down 23 percent compared to the previous 12-month period.
In that same timeframe, California increased its hydropower generation by 72 percent.
Credit: Inside Climate News
The โwhyโ comes down to local factors such as drought or recovery from drought. For grid operators, the takeaway is that hydropower isnโt as steady as it used to be.
There also is a growing view among environmental and justice advocates that hydropower has harmful effects on plants and animals, and can lead to an increase in methane emissions. And, construction of reservoirs has often displaced Indigenous communities.
Some of those advocates, with support from farmers, are saying the Colorado River should be allowed to flow freely through the area where the Glen Canyon Dam now stands in order to improve the availability of water south of the dam, among other benefits. Ian James of the Los Angeles Times wrote about this in September.
While the idea doesnโt have widespread support, itโs not being dismissed in the way it might have been a decade ago, when the problems with the dam were less apparent.
Federal officials have resources to prepare for declining water levels on Lake Powell, but they are dealing with symptoms of larger problems: climate change and a demand for water that exceeds a shrinking supply.
For now, the news is better than it was last year at this time, but Miller isnโt treating this like a victory.
โWe havenโt solved the problem,โ he said. โWeโre still in this place where we need to do a lot of work.โ
Sites in Archuleta County received more than a foot of snow from the weekendโs storm. As of Thursday, Jan. 4, Archuleta County had received around 2 inches of snow and Wolf Creek Ski Area had received 3 inches. Saturday night and Sunday brought the biggest snowstorm of the season, accumulating between 7 and 14 inches in areas of Archuleta County, according to the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) website. Wolf Creek Ski Area reported 29 inches in a report on Jan. 8…
According to snoflo.org, the Wolf Creek summit, at an elevation of 11,000 feet, had a 48-inch snowpack (84 percent of normal), up from 56 percent of normal on Jan. 3. The website reports that it is low for this time of year. According to the Natural Resources Conservation Service, on Jan. 4, the Wolf Creek summit had 28 inches of snow and 7.8 inches of snow water equivalent. As of Jan. 9, the agency reports 51 inches of snow and a snow water equivalent of 9.6 inches.
According to the myriad press releases I receive from the industrial self-care complex, we are in the thick of January Blues season โ the downtime that follows the month of consumerism, er, the holidays. I donโt know about that, but I do know that olโ Mother Snow must be feeling a little blue about the news these days.
Sure, it finally snowed a fair amount in the Four Corners region, blanketing high and even lowlands with white, slicking up the roads, and freshening up the slopes.
In Durango, enough snow accumulated to allow nordic skiing at the Hillcrest golf course, my favorite winter health indicator. And, because the new snow fell on a weak, faceted base layer, it elevated avalanche hazard in some areas, including at the Palisades Tahoe ski resort in eastern California.
Placer County Sheriffโs Office on Instagram: โOLYMPIC VALLEY, Calif. — At approximately 9:30 a.m. today at Palisades Tahoe, an avalanche occurred on the Palisades side of the ski resort, specifically above the GS bowl area of KT-22.
Olympic Valley Fire Department responded to Palisades Tahoe for word of an avalanche in the ski area. OVFD contacted ski patrol, who confirmed an avalanche in the GS Bowl of KT 22. OVFD began recruiting allied agencies and pooling resources in support of Palisades Ski Patrol efforts: OVFD, PCSO, and Palisades Tahoe.
Placer County Sheriffโs Office assisted Olympic Valley Fire and Palisades Tahoe with the search and rescue operation. Tahoe Nordic Search and Rescue was activated along with allied agency partners and assets from the west side. PCSO is investigating the coronerโs case.
The avalanche caused one fatality and one injury. Our thoughts and prayers are with their family members at this difficult time.
No further missing persons have been reported. More than 100 Palisades personnel participated in a beacon search, and two probe lines have been completed. The mountain is closed for the remainder of the day.
The avalanche debris field is approximately 150 feet wide, 450 feet long and 10 feet deep.
We will update with more information as it becomes available. A press conference will be scheduled at 2:30 p.m. at Basecamp at Palisades Tahoe.
WHAT: Palisades Tahoe avalanche incident press conference WHO: Olympic Valley Fire Department Chief Brad Chisholm, Placer County Sheriffโs Office Sgt. Dave Smith, Placer County Sheriffโs Office Lt. Don Nevins, Placer County District 5 Supervisor Cindy Gustafson
WHERE: Palisades Tahoe, Basecamp Conference Room, 1960 Olympic Vly Rd, Olympic Valley, CA 96146
WHEN: Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2:30 p.m. #palisadestahoe #olympicvalleyโ
JANUARY 12, 2024
And yet, it will take a constant barrage of such storms to pull much of the West out of the snow drought. Even if that does happen (and itโs still possible), the science is indicating that the winters we once knew are a thing of the past, and the snowpack โ and water supplies โ will keep getting thinner, on average, with each passing decade. So here are the hot takes on the hot world:
Itโs now official: 2023 was the planetโs hottest year on record (going back to 1850). Thatโs according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which keeps tracks of this sort of thing. It was also the โfirst time on record that every day within a year has exceeded 1ยฐC above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level.โ Some days in November were even 2 ยฐC above the pre-industrial level. Yikes.
Earth was record warm in 2023.
The U.S. didnโt experience its hottest year ever, but it was warmer than average(especially from July onward). The Western side of the country actually had it a bit better than Texas and the East; we were merely โabove averageโ for the year. Balancing it out, much of the West also got above average precipitation. Unfortunately the Four Corners, after a bountiful winter, got robbed of the big monsoon come summer, bringing levels down to average and even below that in New Mexico, where the drought persists. December was especially warm and dry across most of the West and was even the hottest December ever in the Upper Midwest and Northern Rockies.
Overnight, minimum temperatures keep getting warmer, even more so than the maximum daytime highs. Source: NOAA
And a warm and dry December brings the January snowpack blues to the mountains that feed the Colorado River. The 130 SNOTEL stations in the Upper Colorado River Basin are recording a snowpack on a par with the dismally dry 2021 winter, which brought Lake Powell down to crisis levels. The snowpack is even thinner than it was on this date in 2002. Ack! Still, check out the trajectory for 2023: After an average beginning, winter really took off from January into about mid-April. So thereโs still time for a recovery. Really.
Overnight, minimum temperatures keep getting warmer, even more so than the maximum daytime highs. Source: NOAA
That aligns with the findings of a new peer-reviewed study recently published in Nature, showing that human-caused warming has been shrinking mountain snowpacks globally since at least 1981. The findings are nuanced: The shrinkage isnโt happening everywhere (colder areas are less vulnerable to the rising temperatures, so far), itโs happening at different rates in different places, and it isnโt always attributable to human-caused global warming. In fact, while the Rio Grande has โsuffered large historical snowpack declines of over 10% per decade โฆ there is little agreement that forced temperature and precipitation changes have caused those declines, reinforcing the notion that low-frequency variability can overwhelm forced signals in snow and hydroclimate, even on multidecadal timescales.โ The Colorado River Basinโs snowpack has also shrunk at a rapid rate, and in that case the authors did find a link to anthropogenic global warming. And because of the nonlinear sensitivity of snow to warming, the future may be even less snowy. Iโll let the authors explain:
“Under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2โ4.5, a โmiddle-of-the-roadโ emissions scenario, the most highly populated basins are expected to see strong declines in spring runoff as a result of nonlinear snow loss, even in the face of relatively modest warming projected in those regions. The western USA, for example, is poised to see particularly sharp spring runoff declines in the upper Mississippi (84โmillion people, 30.2% spring runoff decline), Colorado (14โmillion, 42.2%), Columbia (8.8โmillion, 32.7%) and San Joaquin (6.8โmillion, 40.9%) river basins.“
And, yes, Coloradoโs snows and streamflows will be a victim of this same phenomenon, according to the latest climate change report for the Colorado Water Conservation Board. The report finds:
Statewide annual average temperatures warmed by 2.3ยฐF from 1980-2022 โ with a strong link to human influence on climate โ with the greatest warming occurring in the south-central and southwestern parts of the state, and during the fall.
By 2050 statewide temperatures are projected to warm by 2.5ยฐF to 5.5ยฐF compared to the 1971 baseline, making the average year in the 2050s and beyond warmer than the hottest years on record now.
Precipitation has decreased 22% in southwestern Colorado and 20% in northwestern Colorado since the 1951-2000 period, but the future trends are less clear than temperatures โ precipitation may even increase by as much as 7%, with the largest gains during winter, though more of it is likely to fall as rain.
Snowpack has also decreased and future warming likely will lead to further reductions, even if precipitation increases, and the seasonal snowpack peak is projected to shift earlier by as much as several weeks by 2050, which could be accelerated by increased dust-on-snow events.
April 1st snowpack by major river basin. Credit: The Land Desk
A shrinking snowpack and earlier runoff will further diminish streamflows.
Soil moisture has generally been on the decline in high-elevations since 1980 and future warming is expected to lead to future decreases in summer soil moisture, which can, in turn, exacerbate warming.
Warming has driven greater evaporative demand โ or atmospheric thirst โ over the last four decades, this means crops will need more irrigation to thrive, increasing water consumption even as water supplies dwindle.
Potentail Evapotraspiration (PET) 1980-2022. Credit: The Land Desk
Well, if you didnโt already have the January Blues (or didnโt even know such a malady existed), you just might have them now. Iโm sorry, but it will help to go up to the golf course and do some nordic skiing, I promise. And for more on the Colorado climate report read Heather Sackettโs excellent piece for Aspen Journalism.
NASA announced that 2023 was the hottest year on record, according to an analysis of annual global average temperatures by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Scientists who maintain the temperature record, which begins in 1880, calculate a global temperature anomaly each year to determine how much temperatures have changed compared to temperatures from 1951โ1980.
Every month from June through December 2023 came in as the hottest month on record. July ranked as the hottest month ever recorded.
But what caused 2023, especially the second half of it, to be so hot? Scientists asked themselves this same question. Here is a breakdown of primary factors that scientists considered to explain the record-breaking heat.
The long-term rise in greenhouse gases is the primary driver.
For more than 100 years, humans have been burning fossil fuels such as coal, gas, and oil to power everything from lightbulbs and cars to factories and cities. These actions, along with changes in land use, have led to a rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.ย Greenhouse gasesย act like a blanket trapping heat around the planet. The more of them you add, the thicker that blanket becomes, further heating Earth.
Carbon Dioxide swirling around the Earth. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
In May 2023, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere peaked at 424 parts per million at NOAAโs Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. The annual peak has been steadily rising since measurements began in 1958. (Other global carbon measurement projects showed similarly high numbers.) Extending the record back even further with ice cores, carbon dioxide concentrations are the highest they have been in at least 800,000 years.
โWeโre going to continue to have records be broken because the baseline temperature is moving up all the time,โ said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASAโs Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City. โThe cause of that warming trend over the last 50 to 60 years is dominated by our changes to greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide and methane.โ
The return of El Niรฑo added to the heat.
On top of the long-term global warming trend are natural variations in the climate. One of the largest sources of such year-to-year variability is the El Niรฑo Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which occurs in the tropical Pacific.
June 1 – 10, 2023. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
ENSO transitions between three phases: El Niรฑo, La Niรฑa, and neutral, or average. During El Niรฑo, trade winds weaken; that is, winds that normally blow from east to west in the tropical Pacific weaken. The sea surface around the equator in the central and eastern Pacific near South America also becomes warmer (and higher) than normal. El Niรฑo often coincides with the warmest years in the global average.
During La Niรฑa, the opposite happens: the trade winds strengthen and the sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are cooler than normal. This can help offset some of the rising temperatures from long-term global warming.
From 2020โ2022, the Pacific saw three years of La Niรฑa conditions. Then El Niรฑo returnedbeginning in May 2023. This El Niรฑo has not yet been as strong as those in 2015โ2016 or 1997โ1998, both of which caused large global average temperature spikes. However, when you add this ocean warming to the long-term warming trend from greenhouse gases, the start of El Niรฑo helped temperatures jump enough to create a new record for heat.
โFor the most part, itโs us and El Niรฑo,โ said Josh Willis, a climate scientist at NASAโs Jet Propulsion Laboratory. โAt the end of the day, humans are heating the planet, and El Niรฑo is dancing on our heads.โ
Globally, long-term ocean warming and hotter-than-normal sea surface temperatures played a part.
Looking more broadly, the tropical Pacific wasnโt the only part of the ocean that was hotter than normal this year. The global sea surface temperatureย set new records in 2023, with the North Atlantic and other parts of the ocean experiencing several marine heat waves.
August 21, 2023. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
โJust like global temperatures, ocean temperatures are on the rise,โ said Willis. โThey have been rising for the last century or more, and they are not slowing down. If anything, they are speeding up.โ
Whatโs behind the rise in ocean temperatures? Greenhouse gases warming the planet. Around 90 percent of the heat trapped by rising greenhouse gases is absorbed by the ocean. That means that as greenhouse gases continue to increase, so will ocean temperatures, which raises temperatures across the globe.
Aerosols are decreasing, so they are no longer slowing the rise in temperatures.
Another global trend that scientists are monitoring is a change in aerosols in the atmosphere.ย Aerosolsย are small particles in the airโsuch as smoke, dust, volcanic gases, sea spray, air pollution or sootโthat canย impact the climate. Airborne particles can either reflect sunlight, causing a slight cooling of the air, or absorb sunlight, causing a slight warming of it.
June 26, 2023. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
As governments have passed regulations to reduce air pollution and improve air quality, the abundance of aerosols has been decreasing in most areas. Many of these human-produced particles are the type that cool the climate slightly, so with less of them in the air, the result is a slight warming effect. But this contribution is quite small in comparison to the much greater warming from rising greenhouse gases.
Scientists at NASA and around the world are investigating how a reduction in aerosols from new shipping regulations potentially change how much solar energy is reflected back into space. While these changes can be notable on regional scales, the global impact is likely small, Schmidt said.
Scientists found that the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haโapai volcanic eruption did not substantially add to the record heat.
In January 2022, the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haโapai undersea volcano blasted an unprecedented amount of water vapor and fine particles, or aerosols, into the stratosphere. Water vapor, a greenhouse gas, can produce a warming effect on the atmosphere, so scientists investigated the impact of the eruption on the global temperature.ย Sulfate aerosols from eruptions, on the other hand, have sometimes led to some global cooling events.
Hunga Tonga-Hunga Haโapai volcanic eruption. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
A recent study found that the volcanic sulfate aerosols reflected some sunlight away from Earthโs surface, leading to a slight cooling of less than 0.1 degrees in the southern hemisphere following the eruption. Essentially, the warming that occurred from the increase in water vapor in the stratosphere was offset by the cooling caused by volcanic sulfate aerosols leading to a slight cooling lower in the atmosphere. This means the eruption likely did not add to the record heat in 2023.
โWe are very interested in the weather and extremes of any particular year because those are the things that impact us,โ said Schmidt. โBut the key difference between this decade and the ones before is that the temperatures keep rising because of our activities, principally the burning of fossil fuels.โ
The current water level of Lake Mead behind the Hoover Dam July 2023. Photo credit: Reclamation
Click the link to read the article on the NOAA website (Peter Goble, Russ Schumacher):
January 9, 2024
The Colorado River is perhaps the most critical resource to the southwestern United States, providing water to over 40 million people. In an average year, over half of this water comes from western Colorado, primarily in the form of snowmelt when high-elevation seasonal snowpack dissipates in the spring.
The Colorado River has been managed with a large series of reservoirs. Seasonal water supply forecasts made by agencies like the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) and the National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) using data from high-elevation Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations offer water managers insight into how much water to expect each year. These forecasts allow for less uncertainty and better management of these important reservoirs.
However, 2020 and 2021 were low water supply years, much lower than one would expect based on snowpack values alone. Researchers from the Colorado Climate Center questioned whether very low, if not record low, soil moisture levels at high elevation were causing a smaller fraction of snowmelt to runoff than in a normal year, and further, whether these conditions are likely to occur more frequently in a warmer climate. โOn the Sources of Water Supply Forecast Error in Western Coloradoโ is the result of a research project funded by NOAAโs National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) to explore this question.
The research team created hindcasts of AprilโAugust streamflows using SNOTEL snowpack and precipitation data from 1981โ2021, inputting modeled soil moisture and groundwater data to predict streamflow. In this case, โhindcastโ refers to a prediction of streamflow in a previous subset of years using a statistical model that was trained based on a separate subset of years. In this way, the researchers mimicked an actual water supply forecasting environment without including the known answer into the model (See the AMS article for a more detailed explanation of the methods).
The researchers paid special attention to hindcasts using the data available on April 1. April 1 is near peak snowpack season, and these numbers have historically been used as a benchmark for how much water to expect in the coming spring. In 2021, for instance, adding soil moisture data from the Western Land Data Assimilation Systemโs km resolution land surface model reduced April 1 streamflow hindcast in all four major basins, and lowered hindcast error across the board.
Results indicate that a much larger fraction of the error in the hindcast is attributable to the weather that occurs after April 1 and 2021 was no exception. While antecedent soil moisture conditions were record-low in western Colorado, 2021 also had a much drier-than-normal spring for western Colorado with a record dry April. This was not well predicted or incorporated in operational streamflow forecasts. April 1 numbers do not tell the whole story, because what happens before the snowpack season, and what happens from April 1 through early June, also have a marked impact on the yearโs water supply.
The findings from this study are important because they establish a ceiling for how skillful we can expect water supply forecasts to be without significant, successful investments in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting over the Intermountain West. Soil moisture data can be implemented more effectively in the future and incrementally lower water supply forecast error for this crucial region. However, with time, larger-scale errors in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction will need to be addressed to create a consistently accurate forecast of water supplies.
Documenting the rate, magnitude and causes of snow loss is essential to benchmark the pace of climate change and to manage the differential water security risks of snowpack declines. So far, however, observational uncertainties in snow mass have made the detection and attribution of human-forced snow losses elusive, undermining societal preparedness. Here we show that human-caused warming has caused declines in Northern Hemisphere-scale March snowpack over the 1981โ2020 period. Using an ensemble of snowpack reconstructions, we identify robust snow trends in 82 out of 169 major Northern Hemisphere river basins, 31 of which we can confidently attribute to human influence. Most crucially, we show a generalizable and highly nonlinear temperature sensitivity of snowpack, in which snow becomes marginally more sensitive to one degree Celsius of warming as climatological winter temperatures exceed minus eight degrees Celsius. Such nonlinearity explains the lack of widespread snow loss so far and augurs much sharper declines and water security risks in the most populous basins. Together, our results emphasize that human-forced snow losses and their water consequences are attributableโeven absent their clear detection in individual snow productsโand will accelerate and homogenize with near-term warming, posing risks to water resources in the absence of substantial climate mitigation.
Black Canyon July 2020. Photo credit: Cari Bischoff
From email from Reclamation (Erik Knight):
The next coordination meeting for the operation of the Aspinall Unit is scheduled for Thursday, January 18th2024, at 1:00 pm.
This meeting will be held at the Holiday Inn Express in Montrose, CO. There will also be an option for virtual attendance via Microsoft Teams. A link to the Teams meeting will be emailed next week along with the meeting handouts.
The meeting agenda will include a review of operations and hydrology since August, current soil and snowpack conditions, a discussion of hydrologic forecasts, the weather outlook, and planned operations for this water year. There will also be a presentation by American Whitewater on the development of the Environmental & Recreational Flow Tool.
It was a stormy week across much of the eastern lower 48 states leading to widespread drought improvements east of the Rockies. A winter storm pummeled the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast over the weekend (January 6-7). Then a second system in its wake was ramping up across the Mississippi Valley toward the end of this week (Tuesday, January 9), bringing heavy rainfall to the Lower Mississippi and the Deep South. More than 2 inches of rain fell in many areas, with localized amounts upwards of 5 inches. Heavy snow also fell across parts of the Central Plains and Midwest as it moved slowly eastward, with snowfall still ongoing across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes by the end of this week. Across the Intermountain West, it was a wet and snowy week mainly for parts of the Pacific Northwest and isolated locations in the Great Basin and Four Corners region, leading to some targeted improvements. However, several areas experiencing antecedent dryness and drought missed out on the precipitation, leading to further degradations, particularly across the northern Rockies, Front Range, and across parts of the western Colorado Plateau in Arizona. In Alaska, no changes to the drought depiction are warranted this week. In Hawaii, a Kona low spinning off to the north brought heavy bands of precipitation to western portions of the island chain, warranting some improvements to drought conditions. Conversely, another week of warm temperatures and below normal rainfall in Puerto Rico resulted in widespread deterioration of the drought depiction…
Storminess in recent weeks has resulted in widespread improvements across the Central Plains. Additional improvements were again warranted this week in the Central Plains, where a couple of storm systems brought wintry precipitation, with weekly snowfall totals of over 5 inches for many areas (locally more than 10 inches), further increasing short-term precipitation surpluses. Unfortunately, the storm track has predominantly been displaced southward across the southern half of the U.S. over the past couple of months, which has led to slow deterioration of drought conditions across portions of the western High Plains and along the Front Range of the Rockies. With another week of below normal precipitation, degradation was again warranted this week. Seasonal snowfall remains below average for many locations and daytime temperatures have been running above normal (and above freezing), exposing soils to evaporation, predominantly from high winds…
Colorado Drought Monitor one week change map ending January 9, 2024.
Targeted improvements are warranted across parts of the Pacific Northwest and New Mexico, where 7-day precipitation totals, in combination with storminess in recent weeks, have improved some of the long-term drought indicators, even improving seasonal snowpack to be closer to normal for several locations. However, some degradation was also warranted in locations that missed out on heavier precipitation amounts this week, and who have experienced below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures over the past few months. Seasonal snowpack is running below normal throughout much of the Intermountain West, although interior portions of the Great Basin are faring a little better. So much of the recent improvements can be attributed to rainfall and improving soil moisture and stream flows…
Much needed rain fell this week across much of the South, with many locations across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys picking up well over 2 inches of rainfall. However, long-term drought conditions still very much remain in place across much of the Lower Mississippi Valley, with several areas across Louisiana and Mississippi experiencing upwards of 20-inch rainfall deficits over the past year. There are marked improvements in the upper layers of the soils and in some of the short-term drought indices in recent weeks, as the storm track has been active across the Gulf Coast states. However, more rainfall will be needed to dig into the long-term precipitation deficits and recharge groundwater. Improvements to drought conditions are also warranted across parts of the Southern Plains this week, where widespread precipitation totals in excess of 1 inch were received…
Looking Ahead
During the next five days (January 11-15), a storm system is forecast to develop and intensify east of the Rockies, bringing potentially heavy rain and snow to parts of the eastern U.S. In the wake of this storm system bitterly cold temperatures are forecast to spill southward from Canada, leading to dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills across portions of the central and northern U.S.
The Climate Prediction Centerโs 6-10 day outlook (valid January 16-20), favors enhanced chances of below normal temperatures across much of the lower 48 states, with the highest chances (greater the 90%) centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Conversely, above normal temperatures are favored in the southwest U.S., underneath a mid-level ridge of high pressure that is forecast. Below normal precipitation is favored across many areas east of the Rockies during the next 6-10 days, as dry air moves in behind a departing storm system. However, a frontal boundary is forecast to remain draped across the Gulf of Mexico, bringing increased above normal precipitation chances to southern Texas and the Florida Peninsula. Above normal precipitation is also favored across parts of the West Coast, northern Rockies, and northern High Plains, associated with moist southwesterly flow into the northwestern U.S.
US Drought Monitor one week change map ending January 9, 2024.
Perhaps youโve seen the latest viral Facebook meme about the ungodly amount of mined material needed to manufacture an electric vehicle. If not, youโve probably seen one like it, maybe bashing EVs, maybe solar panels or wind turbines or some other clean energy technology (often accompanied by a gory image of a purported lithium mine). The implication is always the same: That โgreenโ technology youโre so fired up about isnโt green at all โ in fact, itโs destroying the earth.ย
Normally I wouldnโt give these things a second thought. After all, they are memes, which by their very nature are simplistic and aimed at triggering the most primal emotional response, usually some flavor of fear.
But this particular one โ an inventory of the many tons of ore that must be mined to produce the materials in a Tesla model Y battery โ has been especially infectious, it seems, and has made its way onto many of my social media palsโ feeds. Some of my friends have used it to argue against purchasing an EV, others have rightly questioned its veracity, while still others have posted counter-memes debunking it.
Since the Land Desk covers lithium mining and other impacts of the clean energy transition, I figured Iโd use this meme โ circulated by someone named Jackie โ as an opportunity to add some context. Thatโs because, regardless of whether the meme is accurate or not, it does bring up an important question: Are electric vehicles merely an instance of problem shifting, or transferring the equivalent environmental impacts from one technology to another?
The post in question, letโs call it Jackieโs Meme, claims that 250 tons of earth must be moved to obtain the lithium, nickel, manganese, and cobalt in a typical EV battery, and a Caterpillar 994A used for this purpose would burn about 264 gallons of diesel in 12 hours, offsetting the carbon emissions reductions youโd get from driving the car.
These are certainly eye-opening numbers, even if they are a bit off (I came up with a figure of 69 tons of material moved, not 250, but more on that later). But they are also irrelevant in isolation, since the only thing we can conclude is that manufacturing an EV requires mining, just like mining was required to produce the laptop Iโm writing this on, the desk itโs sitting atop, and the data center responsible for delivering the information to you. In other words, building an EV has an impact on the environment, maybe even a big one.
Coyote Gulch’s shiny new Leaf May 13, 2023
But you donโt buy an EV because itโs good for the environment. You buy it because itโs less bad for the environment than a conventional vehicle (and for other reasons, such as performance, fuel savings, and so forth). Without including a comparison of how much material and mining is needed for a conventional vehicle vs. an electric one, the meme is useless, meant only to scare people away from doing anything.
And that may have been the intent. But another reason for the omission is that accurate apples to apples comparisons of the total amount of mined material needed for an average ICE vehicle vs. an average EV are hard to find. That said, we do know that EVs generally are heavier than their gas-powered counterparts due to the large, dense batteries (although they have far fewer moving parts). And we do know that EVs require far more of certain minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and copper.
This IEA graphic is a good one for those particular minerals:
Source: International Energy Agency
Manufacturing an electric vehicle, then, requires about six times as much of the listed materials as a conventional car. I suspect this disparity might shrink somewhat if steel (iron), aluminum, and molybdenum were also included, but it wouldnโt change the basic fact: EVs are more mineral intensive than ICE cars.
And whether the mineral is steel or nickel, cobalt or platinum, extracting it requires moving, hauling, milling, and smelting huge amounts of rock to get a relatively minuscule amount of target mineral. Thatโs why the Bingham Copper Mine near Salt Lake City is 2.5 miles wide and nearly 4,000 feet deep. And the more rock and ore you mine, the larger the volume of waste, or tailings and waste rock and, generally speaking, the greater the environmental impact1. Hereโs a great graphic showing the ratio of total material moved to ore mined to commodity produced:
From the Energy Transitions Commission. Hat-tip to Hannah Ritchieโs excellent Sustainability by the Numbers newsletter for pointing me to this resource.
Jackie apparently used this sort of math to get to the 250-tons figure. I think sheโs off: using the IEA figures and the above graphic, I find that an EV would actually require moving about 69 tons of earth. But when youโre talking dozens of tons, it doesnโt really matter that much. Jackieโs point still stands: Youโve gotta mine a lot of stuff to make an EV.
So, go ahead, buy that gasoline guzzler and feel good about it. Youโre doing the planet a favor!
Just kidding.
Sure, maybe when they come out the factory door, a new EV has a larger environmental footprint than its gasoline-powered counterpart. But once you start driving the things, the gasoline carโs impact grows at a much faster rate than the EVโs because of, well, gasoline.
Letโs say you live in New Mexico, and drive your car about 14,400 miles per year (the average for the state per registered vehicle), and you have an average car that gets about 22 miles per gallon. Youโll burn through 654 gallons of gasoline and your tailpipe will spew out about 6.4 tons of climate-warming carbon dioxide each year, along with a nasty cocktail of health-harming and smog-forming pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, benzene, and particulates.
Thatโs on top of the impacts of drilling for the oil from which the gasoline is derived. Drilling and hydraulic fracturing a single well can use 10 million gallons or more of fresh water. The 1,300 gallons of crude oil needed to produce your carโs annual gasoline use will be accompanied by as much as 7,800 gallons of briney, contaminated wastewater that must be disposed of โ often in deep injection wells that can trigger earthquakes. Planet-warming methane, along with harmful volatile organic compounds, can spew from oil wells, pipelines, and refineries. Pipelines rupture regularly, spilling wastewater, oil, or diesel โ sometimes they even explode. And petroleum refineries are major pollution sources as well.
Electric vehicles donโt have tailpipes, so youโre not polluting the neighborhood by driving one around2. Yes, electric vehicles must be charged, and yes, some of that electricity is likely to be generated by burning fossil fuels, which requires extraction and creates pollution and other environmental impacts. But EVs generally are more efficient than gasoline powered cars, especially the gargantuan SUVs Americans are so enamored with, so even if you charge on a natural gas-generation-dominated grid youโre likely emitting less carbon per mile. Study after cradle-to-grave study has found that EVs have lower emissions over their lifecycle than their gasoline-powered counterparts, even when battery production3 and raw material mining is accounted for.
This is a Euro-centric graph from Carbon Brief, but it gets the point across. And believe me, an average โEuro carโ is likely far more efficient than an average U.S. conventional car. Source: Carbon Brief.
EVsโ environmental advantages will continue to build as the electricity grid is further decarbonized and fossil fuel generation is displaced by solar, wind, geothermal, small hydropower, and nuclear. Large-scale battery recycling efforts are ramping up, which will reduce the amount of mining needed to build the things, and battery technology is advancing: They are becoming more energy dense and new lithium-, cobalt-, and nickel-free batteries are being developed. Researchers and startups are working to extract lithium from geothermal brine, allowing them to generate electricity and produce battery materials in one shot. And some hardrock mining operations are electrifying their haul trucks and other equipment and building solar arrays to power operations.
The upshot: If you need to purchase a new vehicle, and youโre trying to choose between an electric one or a gasoline-powered one, the EV probably would be a better choice for the environment over the long haul โ regardless of the scare-memes.
Still, even that meme serves a purpose: It reminds us that we wonโt get out of this mess by producing and consuming more stuff, no matter how โgreenโ it may be. [ed. emphasis mine] Simply clogging up the roads with electric vehicles, blanketing the deserts with solar panels, building new dams, or filling our homes with โsustainableโ goods wonโt solve the problems created in the first place by overconsumption and waste. Economic and cultural systems must be overhauled or even overthrown. And the incessant hunger for more, more, more must be tempered at last.
Most of us have a slate of hope for the New Year. Denver Water does too!
Weโre hoping for a bump in the snowpack as winter unfolds.ย
A half-frozen North Saint Vrain creek gurgles through Wild Basin in Rocky Mountain National Park, where warm temperatures and spotty snowpack in early January signaled a slow start to the snow season. Photo credit: Denver Water.
We entered January with ho-hum conditions, with snowpack in the mid-60s in terms of percentage of normal in Denver Waterโs two water supply river basins โ the South Platte and the Colorado.
That is not a banner start to the 2024 snowpack.
The last time the Colorado River snowpack started off near the current level was in 2013. For the South Platte however, snowpack is close to where it was last year.
โIโd rather be ahead than behind, but thereโs still plenty of time for improvement,โ noted Nathan Elder, Denver Waterโs manager of supply. โThe deficits we see currently can still be made up with one big storm.โ
In the mountain watersheds where Denver Water collects its water supply, the percentage of water held in the snowpack (called the snow water equivalent or SWE), was far below normal as of Jan. 7, 2024, but additional mountain snow is in this week’s forecast. Image credit: USDA National Resources Conservation Service.
Another way to look at the snowpack so far this season is by plotting current snow water equivalent percentages against the normal trajectory through the winter and spring. This graphic looks at Colorado’s snow water equivalent percentages in early January 2024 compared to normal.
This image shows the natural rhythm of Coloradoโs snowpack, the stateโs frozen water reservoir, as it builds from winter to spring and then melts in the spring runoff. The black line shows Coloradoโs snow water equivalent, or SWE, on Jan. 3, 2024, as compared to normal (the green line), and the historical minimum and maximum of snowpack peaks in the spring. Image credit: USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service.
Thereโs another point that can be made to push back on any early pessimism: Reservoir storage levels are the best since 2019 for Denver Water, at 86% of average versus the 83% that is typical this time of year. Statewide, too, reservoirs are in good shape following a good snow (and rain!) year in 2023.
Last yearโs boost in reservoir levels is critical, as the extra water could help nurse water providers through a tough year should conditions remain underwhelming during the next four months of 2024.
Notably, reservoir conditions on the Eastern Plains are strong, too, boosted by a snowstorm that hit northeast Colorado the day after Christmas. Having high water storage levels for farmers and ranchers is always important because that reduces the potential that Denver Water might need to send more water downstream to meet the demands of older, more senior water rights holders.
“Below-normal snowpack is always concerning. Recent storms brought a little improvement and we continue to watch the weather and plan for this year’s spring runoff โ while hoping for more snow,โ Elder said.
Now is a good time toย check for water leaksย inside your home, because indoor use in the wintertime matters. Every bit we save in these colder months is water available to us when the warm months arrive.โ
Colorado lawmakers will be asked to weigh in on more than a half-dozen proposed water bills this year that will likely include support for improving the water quality in Grand Lake, significant new funding for replacing thirsty lawns, a pilot program to test using natural systems โ such as plants and soils, rather than water treatment plants, to clean up water โ and new state-level protection for wetlands.
A resolution asking lawmakers to support work to improve the clarity of water in Grand Lake, under consideration for months, is receiving broad-based support from powerful water interests, including Northern Water, said Mike Cassio, president of Grand Lakeโs Three Lakes Watershed Association. Cassio is among a group of advocates who have been trying to improve the lakeโs once-clear waters for decades.
โNothing official until it makes it to the floor, and it is passed.ย However, we are further than ever,โ Cassio said.
Forget bluegrass lawns
Ambitious plans are also on the table to boost to $5 million the amount of money the state is putting into an existing turf replacement program. Gov. Jared Polis as well as members of a special Colorado River Drought Task Force have asked that the program be expanded. It was approved by lawmakers in 2022 and given $2 million in funding.
โI would love to see the project continue,โ said state Sen. Cleave Simpson, a Republican from Alamosa, โand $5 million seems appropriate,โ at least initially.
Simpson, who is general manager of the Rio Grande Water Conservation District, is a sponsor of a bill that would provide at least $1 million to launch a pilot program testing so-called โgreenโ infrastructure, a term that refers to using such things as plants, wetlands and soils to clean up water, helping offset the use of more expensive tools, such as water treatment plants.
Thatโs only part of what could be another record-breaking year for funding Colorado water projects, according to Sen. Dylan Roberts, a Democrat from Frisco.
Last year, lawmakers approved $92 million in water funding, Roberts said, money that helps pay for water conservation, planning, dams and irrigation projects, and new technology, among other things.
โLast yearโs projects bill (the legislative tool through which funding is approved) was the largest amount of funding on record,โ he said. โI am hopeful we can break that record this year.โ
Roberts said he also hopes to introduce legislation expanding the amount of water available to protect streams and to add more protection for farmers and ranchers who agree to place their water into conservation programs benefiting the Colorado River and potentially other waterways.
Replacing federal wetland protections
Another major initiative likely to surface is a plan to create a state-level program to protect streams and wetlands affected by road-building and construction. Last year, the U.S. Supreme Court, in its Sackett v. EPA decision, drastically narrowed the definition of what constitutes a protected stream or wetland under rules known as waters of the United States. The decision left vast swaths of streams and wetlands in the American West and elsewhere unprotected.
Colorado is among a handful of states seeking to set up its own program to ensure its streams and wetlands are safe even without federal oversight. Last year, theย Colorado Department of Public Health and Environmentย (CDPHE) took temporary, emergency action to protect streams, but state lawmakers must approve any new, permanent program.
The CDPHE has been working with a large group of people on the issue, including farm and water interests, environmentalists, and construction and development firms. But what the new program might contain and how it will fare in the legislature is not clear.
โI think there is a lot of desire to get something like this done,โ said John Kolanz, a Loveland-based attorney and water quality expert who represents construction interests. โThe Sackett opinion really changed things. Some people estimate that it has reduced coverage of streams by 50% or more.โ
As a result, Kolanz said, โThe new state program is going to have to be quite large and it will have significant land-use implications. Weโve got to get it right on the front end.โ
Fresh Water News was launched in 2018 as an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed at wateredco.org.
More by Jerd SmithJerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email at jerd@wateredco.org or @jerd_smith.
Monthly global surface air temperature [1] anomalies (ยฐC) relative to 1991โ2020 from January 1940 to December 2023, plotted as time series for each year. 2023 is shown with a thick red line while other years are shown with thin lines and shaded according to the decade, from blue (1940s) to brick red (2020s). Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
An astonishing seven consecutive months of record-breaking warmth have culminated in a grim milestone for humanity: 2023 was, officially, Earthโs hottest year on record.
That assessment, announced Tuesday by the European Unionโs Copernicus Climate Change Service, follows a year in which extreme heat smothered multiple continents simultaneously, pushed ocean temperatures to alarming highs and spurred dire warnings about the worsening effects of climate change.
โ2023 was an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes,โ read a statement from Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Copernicus. โNot only is 2023 the warmest year on record, it is also the first year with all days over 1 degree Celsius warmer than the preindustrial period. Temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years.โ
Westwide SNOTEL basin filled map January 11, 2024 via the NRCS.
Click the link to read the article on the InkStain website (John Fleck):
Three months into the 2023-24 water year, we have our first early look at what sort of runoff to expect on the Rio Grande in the coming year, and it doesnโt look great. The January NRCS median forecast for March-July runoff is 42 percent of โnormalโ at Otowi, the critical forecast point where the Rio Grande enters New Mexicoโs Middle Rio Grande. Itโs still early in the snow season, with a wide range of possible outcomes depending on the storm patterns over the next few months. But the best possible outcome (statistically a one chance in 20 of this much water) is still below the 30-year median.
In other words, weโre pretty clearly on track for a below-average runoff year.
The biggest uncertainty is always the weather, but Iโm excited to see the new, improved statistical models shifting from the research world to operations.
Click the link to read the release on the NRCS website:
Dry conditions have dominated the water year until recently, and the below median precipitation and snowpack has led to below median streamflow forecasts for all major basins. The water year is still young and with recient storms there is still time for conditions to improve.
Denver, CO โ January 9th, 2024 โย The New Year brings a cautious yet hopeful outlook, following early January storms that have begun to pivot the state from a dry start to a more promising winter season. Recent climatic fluctuations, characteristic of the current El Niรฑo phase, have led to a below-average snowpack statewide. NRCS Hydrologist Nagam Gill offers a hopeful perspective: โThe early January storms have served as a pivotal juncture for our stateโs snowpack levels, which initially raised concerns. Weโre now witnessing signs of improvement, indicative of the dynamic and responsive nature of our watershed to meteorological influences.โ As of January 1st, snowpack was at 68 percent of normal, reflecting the need for consistent snowfall to reach average winter accumulations. Yet, the data signals an upward trend, with statewide snow water equivalent improving from 68 to 71 percent of normal in the first week of January. The San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan River basin showed significant improvement, rising from 62 to 71 percent of normal in just a week. โWhile the Upper Rio Grande River basin remains low, there has been improvement with the most recent storm cycle from 55 to 63 percent of normal. This is a testament to the rapidity with which conditions can evolve,โ Gill comments on the potential for swift changes in the wake of each new storm.ย
Colorado snowpack basin-filled map December 31, 2024 via the NRCS.
Streamflow forecasts for January 1st reflect a mixed picture, with some basins like the Arkansas reaching 85 percent of normal and the San Miguel-Dolores-Animas-San Juan at 68 percent of normal. Late summer precipitation trends offer a glimpse into soil conditions, with Julyโs drier spell particularly evident in the southern basins, ranging from 22 to 42 percent of median. However, a shift in the late season brought about above-normal rainfall in the northern regions and significantly improved moisture in the south from 63 to 112 percent of median, setting a favorable stage for runoff. Gill remarks, โA late summer uptick in soil moisture, lays the groundwork for priming basins for efficient hydrological response come spring.โ
Contrasting with the snowpackโs slow start, reservoir storage offers a silver lining and is faring better than the previous year, thanks to last seasonโs generous snowpack. As the year concluded, reservoirs across the state have reported healthy storage levels at 99 percent of median. The Upper Rio Grande and Arkansas basins report reservoir storages at 121 and 112 percent of median, respectively. Gill mentions the broader implications: โThese reservoir levels are more than just numbers; theyโre a buffer – This increased capacity provides a much-needed buffer against the variability of snowpack accumulation and positions Colorado to better handle the ebb and flow of seasonal precipitation.โย
Existing green growth policies are leading nowhere fast, so scientists say itโs worth exploring alternatives like degrowth to stay within planetary boundaries.
With Earthโs average annual temperature speeding toward 1.5 degrees Celsius faster than expected and global climate policy on a treadmill, an increasing number of researchers say itโs time to consider a โrestorative pathwayโ to avoid the worst ecological and social outcomes of global warming.
In a study published today in Environmental Research Letters, an international team of scientists wrote that reaching global goals could require focusing on ways to drive rapid changes in the way people live, move, work and eat; on making sure that global wealth is distributed more equitably; and on restoring and protecting biodiversity and ecosystems like forests, oceans, fields and rivers that are critical to removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
The restorative approach should be considered soon because the pace of climate impacts to ecosystems and communities is speeding up, the authors said. Climate extremes are outpacing decades of efforts to cap global warming with tools like carbon trading and offsets. Those are hallmarks of the green growth path mapped out by various United Nations-sponsored climate pacts like the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, as well other ancillary agreements. They all aim to keep growing the global economy while reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050โpartly based on assuming that large quantities of carbon dioxide will be directly removed from the air and stored by giant machines by then.ย
Many countries, like France, Sweden and the United States, have reduced emissions while continuing to grow their economiesโcalled decouplingโover the last few decades, but research shows itโs not happening nearly fast enough to cap global warming.
Total global emissions, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and the global average temperature all climbed to record highs during the past 30 years, amounting to about half the total greenhouse gas accumulations in the atmosphere since the start of the industrial age.
โItโs almost too late. We need to get cracking with this,โ said Manfred Lenzen, a sustainability researcher at the University of Sydney and co-author of the new paper. โA lot of people think 1.5 is dead already, that we have to realistically aim for staying below 2C,โ he said, adding that green growthโdecoupling emissions from economic expansionโmight have worked if the world had taken it seriously in 2000.
Starting then, it would have taken only a 2 percent annual reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to reach net zero by 2050; starting now means cutting global emissions by 7 percent a year, but the green growth approach is not cutting emissions by anywhere near the required rate, he said. And, particularly as outlined in the policy guiding reports fromย International Panel on Climate Change, it relies on deployment of unproven technologies.
A future of carbon removal? Credit: Inside Climate News
Carbon-removal technology, for example, is still decades away from deployment at a scale that would match the IPCCโs pathways to cap global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius, as per the Paris Climate Agreement, said Lenzen.
Lenzen also co-authored a 2021 paper describing a โdegrowthโ alternative to the existing IPCC options, based on the idea of shrinking economies in rich countries in a controlled way by reducing production and consumption, in order to protect natural resources and reduce environmental damage while improving well-being.
Degrowth Research is Going Mainstream
A 2023 study in The Lancet Planetary Health journal showed that, even in countries with falling emissions and growing economies, emissions are not declining at rates compliant with the Paris Agreement. At the current rates, it would take those countries on average more than 220 years to reduce their emissions by 95 percent, the goal targeted for 2050.
The authors of that study wrote that those decoupling rates in high-income countries โcannot legitimately be considered green โฆ To achieve Paris-compliant emission reductions, high-income countries will need to pursue post-growth demand-reduction strategies, reorienting the economy towards sufficiency, equity, and human wellbeing, while also accelerating technological change and efficiency improvements.โ
Another 2023 paper in Nature described widespread scientific skepticism, especially in high-income countries, about the existing strain of tech-driven green growth, and also called for exploring โpost-growth perspectives, including [growth-neutral] and degrowth strategies, to cultivate a more comprehensive discourse on sustainable development strategies.โ
In any case, Lenzen added, โWeโre not giving technology the chance to catch up with consumption, and that has been the dynamics over the past decade,โ he said, describing a decades-long trend that is now leading researchers to look at alternative economics built on ecological sustainability and social justice.
The new paper doesnโt specifically use the term โdegrowth,โ but shares common themes, like focusing on human wellbeing and reduction of inequality. That โopens the possibility of talking about alternative sustainability scenarios without being too provocative about it,โ said Lorenz Keyรer, a degrowth researcher at the University of Lausanne. That could make it more palatable to a wider audience, he added, including to the community of scientists who build the complex climate models that integrate human behavior with climate physics.
โCompared to their pathway, I think degrowth thinking is more explicit in terms of the proposed changes,โ he said. โAnd itโs more openly โradicalโ in the sense of being more pessimistic about green growth and decoupling, and in favor of a more transformative approach, which also includes ruptures and conflict.โ
But research on degrowth, and similar related concepts like circular economies, or donut economics, is growing, and the European Parliament last year tasked its research service to study โbeyond growthโ alternatives, including a hard look to determine whether the European Union Green Deal is really sustainable.
Developing country leaders also recently spelled out steps that could have a huge cumulative impact and help protect vulnerable countries from climate impacts.
Speaking at COP28 in the context of global equity in climate financing, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley said a global financial services tax of 0.1 percent could raise $420 billion, and a 5 percent tax on oil and gas profits would raise another $200 billion, while a 1 percent tax on the value of shipping would raise $70 billion.
And there would have to be some new global compact that โallows countries to recognize that they cannot only act in their own deliberate interest, but they have to also act in the interest of the preservation of global public goods,โ Mottley said.
โWe happen to be talking about climate,โ she added. โBut we could easily be talking about pandemics and big pharma. We could easily be talking about the digital divide and big tech.โ
โRadical Incrementalismโ
Oregon State University ecologistย William Ripple, co-author of the new paper, said the findings show that their restorative pathway should be included in climate models along with the five โshared socioeconomic pathways,โ or SSPs, that are used by the U.N.โs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Current emissions trends, societal denial and lack of political will make their scenario a tough sell, but he said its merits canโt be honestly debated if itโs not included as an option for policy makers.
Their findings suggest a path of โradical incrementalism,โ with small short-term steps to achieve big changes, like reducing the need to mine for metals or log forests to levels that donโt threaten biodiversity and ecosystem integrity, with per capita GDP stabilizing over time.
Oil and gas infrastructure is seen on the Roan Plateau in far western Colorado. (Courtesy of EcoFlight)
โEnding fossil fuel subsidies and public lands fossil fuel extraction projects would be great first steps for the U.S. and other developed countries, where applicable,โ he said. โThese actions would be low-hanging fruit and a good start in the process of radical incrementalism.โ
Directly phasing out fossil fuel use is also critical, Ripple added. โAn important step in this direction would be the adoption of a global coal elimination treaty since the coal industry has extremely harmful impacts on the climate and human health.โ
For the paper, the team compiled a 500-year dataset for several key global climate indicators to measure humanityโs consumption of resources over the period.
โThe results show a great acceleration of resource use and impacts since about 1850,โ he said. โThis illustrates that climate change is a symptom of the broader problem of ecological overshoot, the overexploitation of the Earth, which is driving several environmental crises.โ The restorative pathway was designed to tackle this underlying issue, he added.
*As our current predicament makes clear, business-as-usual isnโt working and continued economic growth in wealthy countries isnโt sustainable,โ Ripple said. โThis motivated us to call for a shift toward post-growth economics where quality of life and societal wellbeing are the main priority.โย
The key to curbing ecological overshoot means greatly reducing overconsumption and waste, especially by the wealthy, and implementing ecological economics that would focus on social justice rather than continued growth, he said.
One of the global measures they used dating back to 1820 shows the top 10 percent of the worldโs wealthiest have consistently received at least 50 percent of all income, illustrating global economic inequality over the long term.
โThe magnitude of this inequality,โ he said, โprovides further evidence that we need a dramatic change. We face multiple serious and interrelated social and environmental crises. We need economic policies that guide humanity toward more equitable resource use patterns.โ
Screen shot from episode of “Tom Talks” April 2020.
Click the link to read the editorial on the AZCentral.com website. Here’s an excerpt:
December 29, 2023
The Colorado River Indian Tribes and Gila River Indian Community beganย irrigating farmlandย thousands of years agoย using water from the rivers that are now their namesake. Water stewardship is an inextricable part of their community fabric and identity, and its leaders carry a deep obligation to care for what the Creator has provided. The rest of us are relatively new to the water management debate, not the other way around…
Lewis and Colorado River Indian Tribes Chairwoman Amelia Flores have become influential water caretakers in Arizona and across the Colorado River basin. And their leadership comes at a crucial time for us all, as sustained drought and ever-increasing temperatures slash the amount of water flowing through the river on which 40 million people rely. That makes them The Arizona Republicโs 2023 Arizonans of the Year…
Lewis and Flores were born and raised on their reservations โ Lewis just south of metro Phoenix and Flores about 150 miles west of the city. Lewis grew up with a front-row seat to history as his father, the late Rod Lewis, fought to secure the communityโs water rights after upstream dams had decades earlier dried up many of its farms, leading to one of the nationโs largest water settlements…
Flores, meanwhile, spent nearly three decades as the tribesโ archivist, where elders mentored her on the communityโs history and traditions, many of which revolve around water. She was elected the communityโs first chairwoman in 2020. Her community holds one of Arizonaโs largest and oldest Colorado River water allocations, laying claim to roughly 720,000 acre-feet of first-priority water.
Both have a clear vision for their communities and a relentless drive to achieve it.
Gila River Indian Community (GRIC) Gov. Stephen Roe Lewis advocates early engagement of tribes in the decision-making process. (Source: Water Education Foundation)
Amelia Flores, chairwoman of the Colorado River Indian Tribes. (Source: CRIT)
There was not much loss in reservoir storage in the Colorado River basin in December 2023. Total storage in the basinโs reservoirs only declined by 17,000 acre feet during the month, and the combined contents of Lake Mead and Lake Powell increased by 68,000 acre feet. At yearโs end, the basinโs water users have only consumed 21% of the gain in storage caused by the large snowmelt of 2023.
Here are a few graphs depicting where we stand at the start of the new year.
1. The amount of water stored in the basinโs reservoirs remains at an unprecedented low condition. On 31 December 2023, total basin storage was 28.0 million acre feet (af), of which 17.5 million af was in Lake Mead and Lake Powell (Fig. 1). The total amount of water stored in the basin is the same as it was in early May 2021. At that time, storage was less than at any other time in the 21stย century, but we drained the reservoirs much more in the summer and fall of 2021 and 2022. The recovery of storage caused by the large runoff in 2023 provided some relief to the ongoing water-supply crisis, but water storage remains critically low.ย
Figure 1. Graph showing active water storage in 42 reservoirs in different parts of the Colorado River basin. Conditions at the end of December 2023 are comparable to conditions in early May 2021, indicated by the black arrows. Data downloaded at https://www.usbr.gov/
2. Most of the basinโs water storage is in Lake Mead and Lake Powellย (Fig. 2). Releases from Lake Powell and reductions in Lower Basin water use were sufficiently large that there was significant recovery of storage in Lake Mead. At the end of December,ย storage in Lake Mead (9.05 million acre feet) exceeded storage in Lake Powell (8.44 million acre feet) by approximately 600,000 acre feet. The difference in storage between the two reservoirs is much less than during the previous two years when more water was stored in Lake Mead.
Figure 2. Graph showing water storage since January 2021. Note that storage in Lake Mead was significantly greater than in Lake Powell in 2021 and 2022. Large spring runoff in 2023 was captured in Lake Powell, and some of that accumulated inflow was subsequently released to Lake Mead. The rate of reduction in storage in reservoirs upstream from Lake Powell significantly slowed after mid-fall 2023. The category โother Upper Basin reservoirsโ includes Strawberry, Granby, McPhee, Dillon, Starvation, Nighthorse, and smaller reservoirs. Water storage in Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu remains nearly constant. Note that the vertical axis is an arithmetic scale that has a break. Data downloaded at https://www.usbr.gov/
3. The rate of loss in reservoir storage this year remains low relative to the rate of loss in previous yearsย (Fig. 3), especially the rate of decline of the combined storage in Lake Mead and Lake Powell. (Fig. 4) The basinโs water managers are doing a good job of reducing use and conserving water in reservoirs. Reclamationโs estimate of probable consumptive water use in the Lower Basin in 2023, issued 31 December 2023, is 5.78 million acre feet, nearly 900,000 acre feet less than Lower Basin consumptive use in 2022. Will that degree of water conservation be enough? That depends on how much snowmelt occurs this spring.
Figure 3. Graph showing the rate of reduction in basin-wide reservoir storage in each of the past ten years. The reduction in storage has been at a much slower rate than in other years. Each year that plots lower than 2023 on this graph reflects a higher rate of loss in storage than this year.
Figure 4. Graph showing the rate of reduction in the combined storage in Lake Mead and Lake Powell in each of the past ten years. The reduction in storage has been slower than in any other recent year. Each year plotting lower than 2023 on this graph reflects a higher rate of loss in storage than in this year.
Acknowledgement: Eric Kuhn and John Fleck provided helpful suggestions that improved this posting.
The new Climate Change in Colorado report combines and synthesizes relevant climate science information to help inform future management of the stateโs water resources. Photo credit: Colorado State University
Previous editions of the report in 2008 and 2014 were among the first state-level climate change assessments ever conducted in the U.S. The new report was created by researchers at CSU in the Department of Atmospheric Science within in the Walter Scott, Jr. College of Engineering. Funding and support came from the Colorado Water Conservation Board and Denver Water.
CSU Research Scientist Becky Bolinger served as the lead author for the report and is the assistant state climatologist for Colorado. She said the report describes trends in Coloradoโs climate and hydrology, interprets model-based projections for the future, and considers potential hazards stemming from changes in climate. It also verifies projections found in earlier reports and updates them to extend out through 2050 and beyond.
What does the report say about future temperatures in Colorado?
The report notes that temperatures in Colorado have been warmer than average in the last few years and that the models are confident in predicting that trend to continue around the state well into the future. In general, statewide annual average temperatures warmed by 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit from 1980 to 2022 with the greatest amount of warming happening during the fall season.
Bolinger noted that the observed warming trend is strongly linked to the overall human influence on climate and that further and significant warming is expected in all parts of Colorado โ in all seasons โ over the next several decades.
โSouthwestern and south-central Colorado have experienced the largest magnitude of warming and will continue to see hotter temperatures than the rest of the state in the future,โ she said. โBy 2050 Colorado statewide annual temperatures are projected to warm by 2.5 to 5.0 degrees Fahrenheit compared to the late 20th century and 1 to 4 degrees compared to what we see today.โ
CSU Research Scientist Becky Bolinger served as the lead author for the report and is the assistant state climatologist. Credit: Colorado State University Photography
What does the report say about future changes in Coloradoโs water resources?
Colorado has seen persistent dry conditions in the 21st century with four of the five driest years in the total 128-year record occurring since 2000, but future trends in precipitation remain uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, the report notes that warmer temperatures will likely reduce water supply. Models predict a 5-30 percent reduction in both stream flow volume and snow-water equivalent โ the amount of liquid water that would result if the snowpack were melted down โ by 2050 due to future warming.
โSnow-water equivalent during the twenty-first century has already been 3 to 23 percent lower than the 1951-2000 average across Coloradoโs major river basins,โ Bolinger said. โFuture warming will continue that trend and the seasonal peak snowpack date is actually projected to occur earlier in the spring than it does now by 2050. We would need a large overall increase in precipitation to offset the effects of warming there โ an outcome that appears unlikely.โ
What does the report say about future climate extremes and hazards in Colorado?
For the first time the report deals directly with climate extremes and hazards โ noting that warming temperatures have and will continue to increase the frequency and severity of heat waves, drought and wildfires in the state. The report touches on multiple hazard categories but specifically predicts that future warming will lead to an increase in wildfire events with a greater chance for them to occur in the fall, winter and spring months than we are seeing now.
In the last seven days, snowpack gains at the Upper Colorado sites and the South Platte sites were well below normal. Luckily, the pattern looks to be changing as stormier weather is in the forecast.
Westwide SNOTEL basin-filled map January 9, 2024 via the NRCS.
Under skies made hazy by wildfire smoke, flows in the Crystal River near Carbondale dipped to around 8 cfs in 2018. A new report on climate change in Colorado projects more frequent and intense wildfires and reduced streamflows in the future.ย CREDIT:ย HEATHER SACKETT/ASPEN JOURNALISM
Scientists predict with high confidence that Coloradoโs future spring runoff will come earlier; soil moisture will be lower; heat waves, droughts and wildfires will be more frequent and intense; and a thirstier atmosphere will continue to rob rivers of their flows โ changes that are all driven by higher temperatures caused by humans burning fossil fuels.
These findings are according to the third Climate Change in Colorado Assessment report, produced by scientists at the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University and released Monday. Commissioned by the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the reportโs findings have implications for the stateโs water managers. Borrowing a phrase from climate scientist Brad Udall, climate change is water change โ which has become a common maxim for those water managers.
The report focuses on 2050 as a planning horizon and projects what conditions will be like at that time. According to the report, by 2050, the statewide annualย temperatures are projected to warmย by 2.5 to 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit compared with a late-20th-century baseline and 1 to 4 degrees compared with today. Colorado temperatures have already risen by 2.3 degrees since 1980. By 2050, the average year is likely to be as warm as the hottest years on record through 2022.ย
This warming, which scientists are very confident will come to pass, will drive the other water system changes that Colorado can expect to see. As temperatures rise and streamflows decline, water supply will decrease.
According to the report, by 2050 there will be an annual reduction of 5-30% in streamflow volume; a 5-30% reduction of April 1 snow-water equivalent (a measure of how much water is in the snowpack) and an 8-17% increase in evaporative demand (a measure of how โthirstyโ the atmosphere is). A hotter, drier atmosphere can fuel dry soils and wildfire risk. Peak snowpack, which usually occurs in April, is also predicted to shift earlier by a few days to several weeks.
โStreamflows are primarily driven by snowpack that melts in the spring,โ said Becky Bolinger, CSU research scientist, assistant state climatologist and lead author of the report. โWhen you are warming your temperatures, you are first changing the timing of when that snowpack will melt. And because weโre losing more to the atmosphere, that means we have less to run off in our rivers and be available for us later.โ
Scientists are less certain about whether precipitation will increase or decrease in the future. Dry conditions have persisted across the state over the past two decades, with four of the five driest years occurring since 2000. Most climate models project an increase in winter precipitation, but they suggest the potential for large decreases in summer precipitation. But even if precipitation stays the same, streamflows will dwindle because of increased temperatures.
This graph shows the projected monthly streamflows for the Colorado River at Dotsero for 2050. A report on climate change in Colorado projects a 5-30% reduction in annual streamflow volume by 2050.
Planning for less water
CWCB officials hope water managers across the state will use the report to help plan for a future with less water. Many entities have already shifted to developing programs that support climate adaptation and resilience.
โI think we can say with confidence that it is more likely that we will have water shortages in the future,โ said Emily Adid, CWCB senior climate adaptation specialist. โI think this report is evidence of that and can help local planners and people on the ground plan for those reductions in streamflow.โ
Denver Water is one of those water providers that will use the reportโs findings in its planning. The utility, which is the oldest and largest in the state, provides water to 1.5 million people and helped to fund the report. Denver Water has been preparing for a future with a less-reliable water supply through conservation and efficiency measures, reservoir expansion projects and wildfire mitigation.ย
โProjected future streamflows is a huge challenge for the water resources industry,โ said Taylor Winchell, Denver Waterโs senior planner and climate adaptation specialist. โThe same amount of precipitation in the future means less steamflow because temperatures will continue to warm. โฆ All this leads to this concept of uncertainty. We really need to plan for a variety of ways the future can happen essentially.โ
Another finding of the report is that temperatures have warmed more in the fall than other seasons, with a 3.1 degrees Fahrenheit increase statewide since 1980, a trend that is expected to continue. Although itโs hard to pinpoint the exact cause of fall warming, Bolinger said it may have to do with the summer monsoons pattern, which can bring moisture with near-daily thunderstorms, but which have been weaker in recent years. That precipitation is critical, she said.
โFirst, youโre keeping the temperatures from getting too hot because youโre clouding over and getting storms,โ Bolinger said. โAnd generally, with higher humidity, youโre going to have less evaporative loss from the soil. What weโve been seeing in recent years is that weโre not getting that moisture in the late summer and into the fall.โ
Less moisture and higher temperatures in the fall also leads to lower soil moisture and kicks off a vicious cycle of decreased water supplies. The dry soil gets locked in under the winterโs snowpack, and when spring melting begins, the water must first replenish the soils before feeding rivers and streams. This is what occurred in the upper Colorado River basin in 2021 when a near-normal snowpack translated to just 31% of normal runoff and the second-worst inflow ever into Lake Powell.
Some water-use sectors already experience shortages, especially those with junior water rights. Initiatives set up to support the environment and recreation are also at risk with shortages. And those shortages are likely to get worse in the future. In addition to grant programs, one of the ways CWCB aims to help these water users adapt is with a future avoided cost explorer (FACE) tool, which is outlined in the 2023 Water Plan. This modeling tool can help water managers figure out the costs of addressing โ or failing to address โ hazards such as wildfires, droughts and floods.
According to the report, extreme climate-driven events such as heat waves, droughts and wildfires are expected to be more frequent and intense.
โThat gives you a little bit of perspective to say, โWell, what if I invest to mitigate this now, how can I lessen the potential impact in the future?,โโ said Russ Sands, chief of CWCBโs water supply planning section. โIโm not trying to scare people; what weโre trying to do is motivate change and help them invest early.โ
Despite the near-certainty of continued warming and resulting changes to the water system, Bolinger said there is a bright spot. Since the last time that a Climate Change in Colorado report was issued, in 2014, the world has begun to take action on reducing fossil fuel use and has shifted away from the worst-case scenario. Earlier projections were based on a โbusiness as usualโ assumption, with no climate mitigation.
โWe do have things that have been put into place internationally like the Paris Accord,โ Bolinger said. โWe are more along the lines of a middle-case scenario. As long as we continue to take the actions that have been planned out, we are going to follow that middle scenario, which does show warming, but itโs not as bad.โ
The next coordination meeting for the operation of the Navajo Unit is scheduled for Tuesday, January 16th 2024, at 1:00 pm. This meeting is open to the public and will be held as a hybrid meeting with the following attendance options:
In-person: Farmington Civic Center,ย 200 West Arrington, inย Farmington, New Mexico.ย ย
Virtual attendance:ย For those who wish to remain remote, there is a Teams video option below.ย This link should open in any smartphone, tablet, or computer browser, and does not require a Microsoft accountย You will be able to view and hear the presentation as it is presented.ย ย ย
We hope the options provided make it possible for all interested parties to participate as they are able and comfortable. If you are using a virtual option, please try to log on at least 5-10 minutes before the meeting start time. For technical issues, feel free to call the number below.
A copy of the presentation and meeting summary will be distributed to this email list and posted to our website following the meeting. If you are unable to connect to the video meeting, feel free to contact me (information below) following the meeting for any comments or questions.
The meeting agenda will include a review of operations and hydrology since August, current soil and snowpack conditions, a discussion of hydrologic forecasts and planned operations for remainder of this water year, updates on maintenance activities, drought operations, and the Recovery Program on the San Juan River.
If you have any suggestions for the agenda or have questions about the meeting, please call Susan Behery at 970-385-6560, or emailย sbehery@usbr.gov.ย ย Visit the Navajo Dam website atย https://www.usbr.gov/uc/water/crsp/cs/nvd.htmlย for operational updates.
Click the link to read the release on the USGS website:
Measuring streamflow is critical for assessing the health and status of river systems. One of the longest continuous records of streamflow is just north of Yellowstone National Park, at Corwin Springs!
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.
Map of SNOTEL snowpack telemetry sites (blue dots) and streamgages (red dots) in and around Yellowstone National Park.
Yellowstone Caldera Chronicles is a weekly column written by scientists and collaborators of the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory. This week’s contribution is from Blaine McCleskey, research chemist with the U.S. Geological Survey.
John Wesley Powell, the second Director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from 1881 to 1894 and explorer of the Colorado River and Grand Canyon, recognized that water availability was a significant challenge in the western United States. During Powellโs USGS tenure, systematic inventorying of streams and their flows in the USA began in earnest.
In January 1889, the first USGS streamgage was established along the Rio Grande near Embudo, New Mexico. Streamgages typically contain equipment to continuously measure the rate and volume of streamflow. Streamgages in the western USA are particularly challenging to install and maintain because the river stage (or height) and flow can vary greatly between the dry months (late summer-winter) and periods of snowmelt, and in many cases the riverbeds are soft and unstable. The equipment and techniques developed at the Embudo gage site became the foundation of USGS streamgaging methods. Since the establishment of the Embudo gage site, there has been a consistent increase in the number of established gages in the United States.
Currently, the U.S. Geological Survey measures discharge at approximately 8,500 sites across the United States. Most of the streamflow data are delivered in near real-time via theย USGS National Water Dashboard(https://dashboard.waterdata.usgs.gov/app/nwd/en/?region=lower48&aoi=default). These flow data are used for planning, forecasting, and warning about floods and droughts; managing water rights and transboundary water issues; operating waterways for power production and navigation; monitoring environmental conditions to protect aquatic habitats; describing impacts to streamflow from changing land and water uses; assessing water quality and regulating pollutant discharges; determining if streams are safe for recreational activities; designing reservoirs, roads, bridges, drinking water and wastewater facilities; and many scientific investigations. Users of these data include water, utility, environmental, and transportation managers. More than 880 million requests for streamflow or water level information were fulfilled during the 2020 water year (which runs from October 1 to September 30 of the following year)!
There are currently 15 streamgages in and around Yellowstone that are used to monitorย hydrothermal activityfrom the more than 10,000ย thermalย features, manage water supplies, and that are used to prepare for and investigate the impacts ofย floods.
Hydrograph showing discharge in cubic feet per second for Corwin Springs streamgage site on the Yellowstone River, MT, spanning 1889-2023.ย The spike in 2022 is from the June floods of that year. Sources/Usage: Public Domain.
While the Embudo streamgage site in New Mexico was the first USGS gage site, the gage on the Yellowstone River at Corwin Springs, just north of the national park boundary, is nearly as old! Daily average discharge at the site was first reported on August 1, 1889 and continued through October 31, 1893. Discharge measurements started again in 1910 and continue today. The discharge record at Yellowstone River at Corwin Springs is one of the longest in the United States! The hydrograph, which plots the level of stream flow over time, from the site appears to be saw-toothed, with the peaks generally representing higher flows in the spring as a result of snowmelt.
Sources/Usage: Public Domain.
Plot of specific conductance, discharge, and temperature measured at the Yellowstone River at Corwin Springs, Montana, during early-mid 2023. The anomalous spikes in temperature and specific conductance on May 23, 2023, are thought to be when a large sand and bar was deposited at the site. May 23 is also the peak flow in 2023.
The highest instantaneous discharge measured at the Corwin Springsโ gage was during the June 2022 flood, when the maximum discharge was determined to be 54,700 cubic feet per second (CFS) (1,549 cubic meters per second), compared to a median peak during snowmelt of 12,000 CFS (340 cubic meters per second). The June 2022 flood is estimated to be a 500-year flood event, meaning that an event like this is likely to occur only once in 500 years.
The gage house at Corwin Springs narrowly escaped serious damage from the 2022 flood, as the streambank about 164 feet (50 meters) downstream eroded away. However, the gage did not emerge completely unscathed. During the flood, monitoring equipment was washed away and the streambed changed its shape. In addition, the site continues to see changes to the bank and stream bed after the flood. During the 2023 spring high-flow runoff, a largeย unconsolidatedย sand and gravel bar migrated downstream and was deposited on top of the newly installed monitoring equipment at the gage! Approximately 2โ3 feet (60โ90 centimeters) of debris was deposited along the bank covering the piping that housed scientific monitoring equipment. The new gravel bar was probably deposited at the site on May 23, 2023, which corresponds to the highest flow in 2023, based on anomalous temperature and specific conductance measurements.
Streamgage site and profiling tool on the Yellowstone River at Corwin Springs, Montana.ย The gage house narrowly avoided damage during the June 2022 flood, which eroded the downstream bank.ย The river profiling instrument helps to map the river bottom to assess streamflow rates and conditions.ย USGS photo by Mike Poland, July 31, 2023. Sources/Usage: Public Domain.
Clearly the riverbeds and banks are still unstable as a result of the June 2022 flood! But the Corwin Spring gage keeps on measuring, continuing one of the longest continuous records of stream flow in the United States!
Although recent storms haveย thrashed the California coastlineย and boosted reservoir levels, the downpours have so far failed to deposit significant snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, which experts say is in the grips of a severe, early season โsnow drought.โ
[…]
โIn some cases there is literally no measurable snow on the ground at all,โ Swain said during a briefing Tuesday. โWhat this means is that right now, as of today, snowpack is at or below all-time record-low numbers for the beginning of January, and I know thatโs pretty alarming.โ
[…]
On Tuesday, state officials conducted their first snow survey of the season at Phillips Station, near South Lake Tahoe, where the ground was a patchy mixture of grass and powder. The monthly surveys in winter and spring are key to forecasting how the stateโs resources will be allocated each year. Snowpack at the location measured 7.5 inches, with a snow water content of 3 inches, said Sean de Guzman, manager of the California Department of Water Resourcesโ snow surveys and water supply forecasting unit. That amounts to just 30% of average for the date, and 12% of the average for April 1, when snowpack is typically at its deepest…Electronic readings from 130 stations across California indicate the snow water content statewide is just 2.5 inches, or 25% of average for the date, compared with 185% at the same time last year…
โSnow drought conditions will continue to evolve throughout the winter,โ the NIDIS said on its website. โEarly in the season, snow drought recovery can happen quickly. Recovery from snow drought in late winter and early spring, when snowpack is typically near peak, can be more difficult.โ
Unlike a typical drought, which refers to a total lack of moisture, a snow drought refers to a deficit in the expected amount of snow, Swain said.
As the West pushes toward its ambitious climate goals, the delicate balance between clean energy development and land conservation has become paramount. While WRA and environmental advocates have passed legislation and won commitments that put electric utilities on track to reduce emissions, advance clean cars and trucks, electrify buildings, and decarbonize gas utilities, this requires more clean energy than ever before. To be successful in meeting these goals, we must focus on the next step in this process โ where to place clean energy infrastructure through smart energy siting.
As WRAโs energy siting policy advisor, I work at the critical nexus of the climate and biodiversity crises in the Interior West. I bring a unique perspective and experience to this role, too. I joined WRA as a clean energy policy fellow, working with our Clean Energy team to identify federal funding opportunities to advance climate change solutions. Now, as a part of the Western Lands team, I pull from that experience to help craft balanced policy solutions that advance WRAโs clean energy goals while ensuring the build-out of new clean energy projects does not exacerbate habitat loss or place development on important natural and working lands.
Right now, the major focus of my work is on Colorado. Building the clean energy projects necessary to meet the state of Coloradoโs ambitious climate goals will require a significant amount of land for wind and solar energy production, the largest driver of new land use change in the coming decades. To meet this need in a manner that does not exacerbate habitat loss and accelerate further loss of biodiversity requires a new approach to development planning.
WRA advocates for a smart energy siting approach that not only looks at the climate benefits of new clean energy projects but also accounts for the carbon impacts of land use change, ensures that conservation values are incorporated in the location and design of a project, and directly benefits host communities.
When done thoughtfully, new clean energy projects can provide the energy we need for a prosperous economy while minimizing the impact of these large projects on wildlife and ecosystems and provide direct economic benefits, from increased tax revenue to good paying jobs, in host communities. A smart energy siting approach assesses all these factors to maximize the benefits of new development and minimize conflicts that can often slow or stall projects.
.GIF credit: Western Resource Advocates.
WRA, as part of the Colorado Energy Siting Coalition, has been working over the last year to develop, advocate for, and implement a siting policy framework that ensures new clean energy projects in the state follow a smart siting approach to meet the states climate and conservation goals. WRA is a founding member and has been helping to coordinate the Coalitionโs efforts to understand the perspectives of stakeholders across the state that are driving, or will be impacted by, the clean energy transition. We are also providing policy research and analysis to develop a policy framework that meets Coloradoโs diverse needs and considerations.
Given the stateโs abundant clean energy resources, ambitious climate goals, and natural heritage, WRA believes Colorado can be a national leader in smart energy siting policy that minimizes conflicts with wildlife and accelerates the clean energy transition to address climate change. And this transition to a clean energy economy will touch all parts of the state.
To better understand the various perspectives across the state, the Coalition held several rounds of stakeholder meetings to understand and address disparate needs. This outreach and engagement process culminated in October with a Clean Energy Siting Summit that brought together over 80 stakeholders from across the state to learn from one another and co-develop policy solutions to promote smart energy siting for Colorado.
Participants included local and state government officials (county commissioners, state legislators, state agency directors and their staff, and the Governorโs policy advisors), renewable energy developers, electric utilities and co-ops, clean energy trade alliances, and environmental justice, conservation, agricultural, and wildlife organizations. This broad group, working altogether and in small groups, assessed policy options focused on:ย
Balancing state and local authority;ย ย
Providing resources to local governments;ย ย
Integrating environmental protections;ย ย
Facilitating public engagement and establishing and defining community benefits;ย ย
Streamlining and expediting the permitting process.ย ย
Building on the momentum of the summit and the ideas and perspectives shared, the Coalition is working to synthesize this information and incorporate the various considerations of stakeholders into a policy framework proposal that WRA and the Coalition will advocate for during the 2024 legislative session.ย ย
Photo credit: Western Resource Advocates
Photo credit: Western Resource AdvocatesPhoto credit: Western Resource Advocates
The amount of wind and solar energy needed to meet Coloradoโs energy needs and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with science-based targets will require a significant amount of land. According to recent modeling by the Colorado Energy Office, the state will need to build approximately 12.5 gigawatts of wind and 12.5 gigawatts of solar capacity over the next two decades to meet this goal. If not properly planned for, this will cause irreparable harm to Coloradoโs wildlife, natural habitats, and important agricultural lands. The good news is, according to the best available science, we can achieve both our clean energy goalsย andย protect important natural and working lands.
Accomplishing a just and equitable transition that occurs fast enough to address climate change is no small task. WRA and the Coalition recognize that to meet the moment โ and this challenge โ will require a thoughtful, smart approach to siting clean energy projects that incorporates conservation and community priorities. To do this we must ensure that all those driving or being impacted by the clean energy transition โ including communities that have been previously left out of the decision-making process โ are able to shape the transition and that the rights of nature and wildlife are protected.
Addressing the climate and biodiversity crises requires new, thoughtful approaches to meeting our energy needs, reducing emissions, and conserving and protecting the natural landscapes that make Colorado unique. During the upcoming legislative session, WRA will be challenging legislators to institute this critical balance into law.ย ย
In February 2020, Dave Herrero drove into the canyon country here in southeastern Utah to visit a slice of land that was up for sale โ a 320-acre ranch that stretched deep into the red-rock canyon near the small town of Bluff…In July, his California-based employer, the nonprofitย Wildlands Conservancy, purchased the ranch for $2.5 million from the family that owned it and began writing a deed that it hopes will become a model for working with tribes to protect wilderness in the American West from real estate developers, mining companies and oil drillers. In what would be a novel arrangement, the deed is expected to include a coalition of five tribes as co-owners and managers with Wildlands โ an effort to acknowledge the history of the land, which the conservation group named Cottonwood Wash.
โThere are once tribes that lived in these areas that were forcibly removed,โ said Davina Smith, a member of the Dinรฉ, or Navajo, who has worked with different organizations to protect land in the Four Corners region. โWe have to recognize that.โ
[…]
The traditional model of conservation in the West has long followed the lead of environmentalists such as John Muirโ the โfather of the national parksโ โ who saw untracked wilderness as a sort of Eden that would fall to corruption under manโs influence. His model of conservation was simple: Keep people out…That school of thought feels foreign to Natives such as [Davina] Smith, 49.ย
โYou have all these prominent writers writing about the West, but they focus on the landscape,โ she said. โThey donโt think about the Native tribes who have always actually been living in this landscape.โ
[…]
In 2015, a coalition of five tribes โ Hopi, Navajo, Uintah and Ouray Ute, Ute Mountain Ute and Zuni โ sent a letter to then-President Obama proposing the creation of the Bears Ears National Monument in Utah on land known as the Colorado Plateau. Under a novel co-management scheme, the tribes would have direct say in ecological stewardship and how to regulate economic activity and recreation…Less than a year after Obama issued a presidential proclamation creating the monument on Dec. 28, 2016,ย then-President Trump undid itย at the urging of the Utah state government, which wanted to leave the land open to uranium mining, oil drilling and cattle grazing. When President Biden took office in 2021, one of his first acts was reestablishing Bears Ears…The Cottonwood Wash lies within the boundaries of the Bears Ears Monument, but because itโs private property, it wasnโt included as part of the monument. That gave Wildlands a playbook. In 2022, its leaders approached the Bears Ears Inter-Tribal Coalition, the official alliance of the five tribes, to say they were considering buying the Cottonwood Wash and were interested in joint ownership and management. As part of their push, Herrero and Haney drove to four reservations to meet with tribal leaders. Some were suspicious at first. Anthony Sanchez, the head councilman for the Pueblo of Zuni, explained that non-Native groups will sometimes use supposed ties to tribes to boost their own PR.
Fort Collins had a very dry and warm December 2023
The city received no measurable snowfall in December, which is the first time that happened since 2002. Before 2002, it happened only three other times, the last of which was in 1935.
The city received 0.14 inches of precipitation, which fell as rain. It was the driest December since 2018.
The average temperature was 37.3 degrees, which was the warmest for December since 1980.
December reached above 60 degrees five times, including the high of 65 degrees on Dec. 6 and the last balmy day of 62 degrees on Dec. 21.
It never got colder than 15 degrees. That happened on Christmas night and was the highest minimum temperature for the month since the beginning of city weather record-keeping in 1889. Compare that to December 2022, when we dropped to minus 17 degrees, the coldest temperature recorded of any month since the 1990s.
Despite a dry December, 2023 was a wet one for Fort Collins
2023 was the fourth-wettest year on record, ending with 24.36 inches of precipitation, which was 153% of our 1991-2020 normal of 15.88 inches.
Theย last wetter yearย was in 1997, the year of the Spring Creek Flood, when we received 25.23 inches.
The city’s record for precipitation in a calendar year is 28.28 inches in 1961.
Following the U.S. Supreme Courtโs decisionย narrowing the reach of the Clean Water Act, states including Colorado must now pick up the slack to protect water the federal government no longer will.ย
The new definition of โwaters of the United States,โ or WOTUS, excludes a large number of wetlands that now require state regulation if they are to be protected. Brett Hartl, government affairs director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said the clear impact of the 2023 Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency case is that many small streams and wetlands are no longer protected by the Clean Water Act.
Hartl said the sooner Colorado acts to create regulations around wetlands the better, because right now it would be legal if someone wanted to dredge and fill a wetland for development. He said the state should start by simply looking at what used to be protected by the Clean Water Act and create a similar regulation system where people need to apply for a permit and mitigate damage.
Millions of acres of wetlands recently lost federal protection under the Clean Water Act after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling. Some states are attempting to fill the void, but permitting programs โ and the staff needed to enforce them โ have proven costly. Flickr/USDA NRCS TX
โMy guess is that the state has a fairly good idea of what areas within the state face the most development pressure at any given time โ a wetland high up in the mountains inside a park or wilderness area or state forest or whatever is probably not at as great a threat as something maybe on the outskirts of Boulder or Denver where thereโs intense pressure to develop,โ Hartl said.
Katherine Jones, a spokesperson for Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, said up to 50% of state waters are at risk of no longer being protected by the Clean Water Act following the Sackett decision. Coloradoโs Department of Public Health and Environmentโs Water Quality Control Division said the Sackett ruling โwill likely result in all ephemeral and many intermittent waters, which constitute the majority of Coloradoโs stream miles, being outside the scope of federal Clean Water Act jurisdiction.โ
Polisโ proposed 2024 budget included โa placeholder of $600,000โ to serve as an initial investment toward a clean water program, Jones said. CDPHE requested supplemental funding from the Colorado Legislature so it can prepare for development of a program to protect vulnerable waters and has engaged with interested stakeholders since the Trump administrationโs efforts to change the Clean Water Act in 2020.
โOne of Governor Polisโ top priorities is protecting Coloradoโs environment and our precious, clean water resources for the health and safety of Coloradans, as well as industries like agriculture and recreation,โ Jones said in a statement.
As the state gets started, Hartl said it could quickly establish an interim standard to maintain the status quo and to prevent anyone from โcynically taking advantage of the situationโ as it takes the time to determine the best course of action.
โEnforcement actionsโ
The Water Quality Control Division approved an enforcement policy in July so the state can track unpermitted discharges of dredge and fill material into state waters. The new policy encourages entities to notify the state when they plan to dredge and fill in state waters, and it also leaves room for unspecified โenforcement actionsโ in cases when an entity pursues dredge and fill activity in waters that would have been protected before the Sackett ruling. It does not apply to larger projects that would require significant mitigation and previously would have required a federal 404 permit.
Kelly Hunter Foster, senior attorney for Waterkeeper Alliance, said itโs good how quickly CDPHE took action after the Sackett decision, but that action is not a long-term solution. Creating a permanent system can be complex, she said, as the state must develop a permitting system, standards and mitigation requirements.
โThere is a need to figure out what can be added to existing regulations and what statutory changes are necessary in order for the state to step in,โ Foster said. โIn particular, a permitting program will have to be set up for dredging and filling of wetlands and other waters that lost federal protections, and I think that the state agency needs additional resources to fill the major hole in clean water protections that was left as a result of the Sackett decision.โ
Colorado Parks and Wildlife has a Wetland Wildlife Conservation Program that offers funding for projects that will protect wetland habitats, with over $1.1 million available. Joey Livingston, spokesperson for Parks and Wildlife, said the program has been around since 1997.
โThe level of federal protection for wetlands has fluctuated over the years, so the importance of voluntary, incentive-based wetland conservation programs (like ours) is highlighted during times like these,โ Livingston said of the Sackett decision.
Hartl said the loss of any one wetland wonโt have drastic consequences, but more cumulative impacts arise as more and more wetlands are destroyed. In particular, he said wetlands help with flood mitigation as they soak up excess water, and floods have continuously gotten worse the more wetlands are lost. Hartl said itโs well documented how the U.S. has seen evidence of this with wetlands being dredged and filled since colonization, and โthe court just ignored it.โ
โWetlands store pollution, they address flooding and runoff, they are very much part of what helps maintain clean water and drinking water as well as healthy ecosystems that support wildlife,โ Hartl said. โIf you get rid of all of those natural functioning systems and you pour concrete over them, when rain happens and when there is a wet year or floods, this is why oftentimes floods get worse, because weโve eliminated all the natural ability to slow those floods.โ
Healthy mountain meadows and wetlands are characteristic of healthy headwater systems and provide a variety of ecosystem services, or benefits that humans, wildlife, rivers and surrounding ecosystems rely on. The complex of wetlands and connected floodplains found in intact headwater systems can slow runoff and attenuate flood flows, creating better downstream conditions, trapping sediment to improve downstream water quality, and allowing groundwater recharge. These systems can also serve as a fire break and refuge during wildfire, can sequester carbon in the floodplain, and provide essential habitat for wildlife. Graphic by Restoration Design Group, courtesy of American Rivers
There is an ongoing debate in the Pacific Northwest around whether hydropower as a whole is โgoodโ or โbadโ. But this conversation misses important details and nuance.
There are thousands of dams blocking rivers across the Northwest. Many dams provide energy, transportation, flood control, and irrigation. But many are causing more harm than good โ and they are falling apart. As a society, we are making choices about the costs and benefits of dams: Which ones can be operated in a more environmentally friendly and economically viable way? And which dams need to be removed?
Dams harm rivers. They can destroy fish and wildlife habitat, degrade water quality, and turn free-flowing rivers into slow moving reservoirs that emit methane, a potent greenhouse gas that causes climate change. Dams in the Pacific Northwest have been a main cause of salmon extinction and a source of painful injustice for the regionโs Tribal Nations.
American Rivers has always taken a pragmatic, solutions-oriented approach to dams and hydropower. While we lead the movement to remove outdated dams, we are also a founding member of the Hydropower Reform Coalition, working to improve the operations of dams whose continued operation is important for our energy supply and economy. For the past several years, weโve also been working with the hydropower industry in the โUncommon Dialogue on Hydropower, River Restoration, and Public Safetyโ โ finding common ground on plans to retrofit and rehabilitate dams that still serve an important purpose and remove dams that pose a safety risk.
Simply put: American Rivers is ensuring our nation prioritizes healthy rivers, whether thatโs by making hydro dams more river- and fish-friendly, maximizing the performance and efficiency of dams, and removing dams whose costs outweigh their benefits.
So, what does this look like in the Pacific Northwest where 50 percent of our annual energy generation comes from hydro? Major dams, including those on the Columbia River, helped build our world-class economy and will continue to support our vibrant region. But we must take a hard look at dams that are causing far more harm than good.
The lower four Snake River dams, which stretch between Tri-Cities, WA and Lewiston, ID, were constructed between 1957 and 1972. These dams provide around 900 average megawatts of power โ around 4% of the Northwestโs energy generation. They also provide irrigation for crops grown around the Tri-Cities, as well as transportation for barge traffic between the Tri-Cities and Lewiston. While the services the lower four Snake River dams provide are valuable to surrounding communities, those services can be replaced with alternative technologies. Breaching the earthen portion of the dams is the best solution we have to solve the significant impacts the dams are having on salmon, steelhead, killer whales, Tribal Nations, and economies that rely on these species.
Unlike the mainstem Columbia dams, the lower four Snake River dams are โrun of the riverโ projects that do not provide flood control and store relatively little water in the reservoirs behind each dam. In summer months, those reservoirs bake in the hot sun, raising water temperatures and creating harmful conditions for cold water-dependent salmon and steelhead. In 2015, warm water in the lower Snake was responsible for killing over 95% of the yearโs adult sockeye salmon run. Impacts on juvenile salmon are harder to measure, but conservative estimates are that upwards of 50% of juvenile salmon die between Lower Granite Dam on the Snake and Bonneville Dam on the Columbia during their journey to the ocean, and that figure is likely much greater in years when water temperatures rise above 70 degrees.
As we mentioned before, the lower four Snake River dams combined produce an average of around 900 megawatts. Compare that with John Day Dam on the mainstem Columbia 50 miles east of Hood River, which by itself produces around 1,200 average megawatts, and you begin to see why these four dams are the target of so much attention. Four times the negative impacts from dams and their harmful slackwater reservoirs, for less power than John Day Dam alone just doesnโt make sense as we envision a new clean energy future.
Granite Dam on the Snake River | Photo: Army Corps of Engineers
Finally, no form of energy can be considered clean if it leads to the extirpation of as many species as the lower four Snake River dams continue to cause, particularly when you consider the value those species have for Tribal Nations that have lived in the Columbia Basin since time immemorial. The American Fisheries Society, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Trout Unlimited, and many other science-based organizations all recognize that breaching the lower four Snake River dams must be the centerpiece action for restoring salmon populations in the Columbia Basin.
Tribal Nations across the Northwest are leading this initiative to breach the lower four Snake River dams because of these negative impacts. The largest impact being to the salmon populations; their dwindling numbers directly impact the culture and traditions of tribal members and their future generations. In addition, with the harm placed on salmon by these dams, treaties made between the U.S. Government and the Tribes are being violated. We have a moral and ethical obligation to uphold our treaty promises and to save Snake Basin salmon and steelhead from extinction.
As we work to develop a bold new clean energy future for the Pacific Northwest, hydropower will continue to be an important part of our generation portfolio. When measured on the whole, it becomes clear that the lower four Snake River dams cannot be a part of that vision. We must build a system that is reliable, resilient, and equitable. We must continue working together to achieve a future of healthy rivers, abundant salmon, and affordable, reliable clean energy.
Map of the Snake River watershed, USA. Intended to replace older File:SnakeRiverNicerMap.jpg. Created using public domain USGS National Map data. By Shannon1 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=62294242
Negotiators are seeking an agreement that would prepare for extraordinary cuts in the amount of river water that can be tapped.
“New plot using the nClimGrid data, which is a better source than PRISM for long-term trends. Of course, the combined reservoir contents increase from last year, but the increase is less than 2011 and looks puny compared to the โholeโ in the reservoirs. The blue Loess lines subtly change. Last year those lines ended pointing downwards. This year they end flat-ish. 2023 temps were still above the 20th century average, although close. Another interesting aspect is that the 20C Mean and 21C Mean lines on the individual plots really donโt change much. Finally, the 2023 Natural Flows are almost exactly equal to 2019. (17.678 maf vs 17.672 maf). For all the hoopla about how this was record-setting year, the fact is that this year was significantly less than 2011 (20.159 maf) and no different than 2019” — Brad Udall
โHow do we live with the river that we have, not the river that we hope and dream for?โ said Becky Mitchell, the lead negotiator for the state of Colorado…
The rules that govern the distribution of Colorado River water expire at the end of 2026. Negotiators are trying to reach a deal quickly, in case the White House changes hands. Itโs not the prospect of a Republican administration that is particularly concerning, negotiators said, but rather a change in personnel and the time required to build new relationships between state and federal officials…
โWhenever thereโs an administration change, that significantly disrupts things,โ said JB Hamby, chairman of the Colorado River Board of California and that stateโs lead negotiator. โIf we can get a draft ready and in place by the end of the year, that will ensure that we get the hard work done.โ
From left, J.B. Hamby, chair of the Colorado River Board of California, Tom Buschatzke, Arizona Department of Water Resources; Becky Mitchell, Colorado representative to the Upper Colorado River Commission. Hamby and Buschatzke acknowledged during this panel at the Colorado River Water Users Association annual conference that the lower basin must own the structural deficit, something the upper basin has been pushing for for years. CREDIT: TOM YULSMAN/WATER DESK, UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO, BOULDER
The San Juan National Forest installed a new breakwater near the boat ramp at McPhee Reservoir to protect those using the ramp from dangerous waves. (Courtesy of the San Juan National Forest)
The structure installed to prevent waves from interfering with operations at the boat ramp consisted of roughly 200 oversize tires strung together with cables. The remnants of a previous breakwater โ also a pile of car tires โ lay stuck in the lake bed, exposed by dropping water levels. But after years of waiting, the trash was removed and an 800-foot shiny new wave attenuator was installed in 2023, thanks to a federal grant and the work of the San Juan National Forest, which manages recreation at the site.
The new breakwater near the boat ramp at McPhee Reservoir cost nearly $600,000 by the time the work and removal of the previous system was completed. (Courtesy of the San Juan National Forest)
The new breakwater, like the one at Lake Nighthorse, is a Wave Eater system composed of floating cylindrical drums that cause surface waves to break and dissipate. The total cost of the installation and removal of trash exceeded $600,000. In 2015, Montezuma County spent over $150,000 of a Colorado Parks and Wildlifeย grant to build a new breakwater.ย But the design was lacking, said Tom Rice, recreation staff officer of the Dolores Ranger District…The new breakwater is made of durable yellow and orange polypropylene drums, which, when combined with new, lighted no wake buoys, greatly improve visibility in all weather conditions, day or night, a SJNF spokeswoman said in an email.
Guided by resident input, the award-winning 39th Avenue Greenway project at the edge of Denverโs RiverNorth neighborhood is an example of One Water in action. The project restored a discontinued rail corridor to improve the aesthetic, create an accessible recreational amenity, and provide stormwater conveyance and filtration as well as 100-year flood protection for the area. (Blake Gordon, Courtesy DHM Design)
Chemically, the water that nature creates is always H2O, regardless of whether itโs suspended in clouds, falling as droplets of rain, or coursing across the land in streams. Itโs all one water that cycles through earth and atmosphere. People, however, tend to form water teams that focus on singular aspects of waterโs role in our environment and communities.
Some managers oversee dams and reservoirs, while others treat water for drinking. Stormwater, flood control, distribution and piping, wastewater, watersheds and the environment, agricultural ditches and canalsโall of these water sectors developed as specialties that donโt, necessarily, join forces or even communicate about overlapping projects and goals. Thatโs largely because each specialty has had to negotiate separate regulations and policies dictating the howโs and whyโs of their water niche. Over time, siloes developed that hindered communitiesโ and water managersโ ability to take a holistic approach to water use and planning.
But by the early 2000s, a number of water professionals across the globe started to envision a new paradigm. โWhat if these systems could be collaborating and together break down the divides?โ asks Scott Berry, director of policy and government affairs for the US Water Alliance, established in 2008 to facilitate communication and development of what have been coined โOne Waterโ principles. The One Water movement was initiated with a utility-centric focus that sought to create dialogue between stormwater, wastewater and drinking water divisions. But the notion of One Water has since evolved to include a broader, more diverse tapestry of stakeholders, says Berry.
The goals of One Water often vary by site, but in most places, One Water initiatives link water and land planning. Whereas integrated water resource plans usually focus on water alone, a One Water ethic recognizes waterโs integration with broader landscapes. Communities can then put that ethic into action by developing a formal One Water plan, which aims to have all of a watershedโs major players at the table in order to craft more sustainable water systems. This means that local governments; private businesses; developers; farmers and agricultural industries; transit authorities; nonprofit organizations; drinking water, wastewater, stormwater, flood and watershed managers; land use planners; environmentalists; and others can all collaborate to share needs and solutions that help finite water resources go farther and achieve multiple benefits for communities and environments.
This countryโs largest cities have led the movement to attempt One Water frameworks, with Los Angeles creating its influential One Water plan in 2018. Other cities, such as New York, Seattle, Honolulu and Denver have followed. And now, surveys conducted by the US Water Alliance indicate that about 80 communities across the country are currently pursuing One Water plan development. Most, including Denver, are managing the interrelated aspects of their water systems in a more collaborative way to improve resiliency in the face of climate change and to stretch water resources to serve growing human populations.
โCollaboration can be unwieldy,โ acknowledges Berry. But it can also avoid costly and wasteful inefficiencies in spending, and it may even help tackle social injustice. โOne Water approaches can address the ways that different neighborhoods have historically received different treatment, and can propose durable solutions that are integrated and equitable,โ says Berry.
Itโs up to each community to identify a set of objectives that address local priorities: One city might emphasize stormwater reuse, while another might elevate water quality higher on its list.
Sunrise Denver skyline from Sloan’s Lake September 2, 2022.
Colorado Plans and Visions
In September 2021, Denver became the first Colorado entity to pursue integrated One Water strategies through the publication of its One Water plan.
Denver collaborators include those involved in water and land use on many levels: the cityโs water and wastewater providers, urban drainage and flood control, various representatives from different departments within the city and county governments, the state, and those who are looking out for the river itself. And they prioritized action items that include promoting water reuse, encouraging overlap between land use and water planning, and developing water policies that support sustainable practices.
Work implementing Denverโs plan is just getting off the ground with monthly meetings among the planโs collaborators who share ideas, outreach opportunities, and areas where their work overlaps.
For example, the 39thย Avenue Greenway project in the Cole and Clayton neighborhoods of north Denver predates the cityโs One Water plan (it was completed in 2020) but exemplifies the kind of multi-benefit project that the plan will prioritize. Flood control was the developmentโs marquee goal, but the design also installed pollutant-filtering green spaces to improve environmental health and playgrounds for families that had historically been underserved by city parks and recreational facilities.
Of course, One Water approaches donโt have to be all-encompassing, as Denverโs is. โYou donโt have to do everything, everywhere, all at once,โ explains Berry.
Coloradoโs leaders are calling for sweeping visions at the state level but not necessarily looking to blanket the state with full-on One Water plans. In the 2023 update to the Colorado Water Plan, the authors urge communities across the state to follow in Denverโs footsteps by including water in โevery city and countyโs comprehensive plan in ways that embrace the One Water ethic and support inclusion in water and land use planning at the local level.โ
โThe local level is where the important planning decisions are made for a more sustainable and water-conscious future,โ says Kevin Reidy, senior state water efficiency specialist for the Colorado Water Conservation Board (CWCB), the agency that led the development and update to the state water plan and supports water plan goals with project funding and direction. The new 2023 water plan specifically calls out the โOne Water ethicโ for all communities across the state โ going beyond a goal in the initial 2015 Colorado Water Plan, which said that 75% of Coloradans would live in communities that had incorporated water-saving actions into land use planning. The state hasnโt yet conducted a formal survey to measure communitiesโ progress.
โWith more One Water planning happening there can be a growing awareness, cataloging of best practices and tools that make adoption easier as well as documenting case studies that can help achieve a larger vision,โ says Reidy. โUltimately, that vision is strongest when it can integrate water conservation, land use and community values around water.โ
One community thatโs begun to yoke synergies is Fort Collins.
This northern Colorado city is unusual in that, in contrast to how things work in Denver, it owns and operates all three traditional water utilities: drinking water, stormwater and wastewater. But each had become siloed, to the point that various arms of the system often competed for funding and purpose. Two years ago, the city hired a consultant to conduct an assessment of the water system, and the resulting recommendation was to align the utilities under a One Water framework.
Jason Graham was hired a year and a half ago to oversee the transformation, and although his job title, executive director of water, doesnโt reference One Water, that movement nevertheless guides his efforts with Fort Collinsโ water services at the management level and regionally. That means achieving more overlap between planning, engineering and operationsโsectors that had been working in a vacuum, without awareness of what one another was doing. It also requires a landscape-level view of Fort Collinsโ water system, upstream to downstream. โThe goal is to develop One Water from Cameron Pass through Fort Collins to the South Platte,โ says Graham.
The effort is still in its early stages. The leadership team and group structures are established, and now, those teams are about to start defining the cityโs strategic principles and priorities for integration. โGiven what we have planned, weโre leading the One Water movement certainly within Colorado, and weโre one of the national leaders that people havenโt yet heard about,โ says Graham.
The potential overlaps extend far beyond the utilities, to include businesses, developers, neighborhoods, parks, golf courses, citizens, elected leaders and their equivalents in the adjacent county. โPromoting that engagement is a big part of One Water, because thatโs what creates a balanced approach to addressing water issues,โ says Graham, who has already begun dialogues with area agricultural providers and neighboring water providers.
Surrounding Fort Collinsโ urban boundary is an area served by about 20 different water utilities that respond independently to their communitiesโ widely varying attitudes toward growthโand Graham plans to have conversations in order to explore potential collaborations with all of them.
โWhether our development code and our policies on xeriscaping can be supported by those other water providers, thatโs very tricky,โ Graham explains. Some citizens support growth while others oppose itโand that struggle links in topics such as affordable housing and social equity, Graham notes, because if you stifle housing creation in a locale that already experiences rising property values, you price out lower-income residents. So while limiting growth may look good from a water-use standpoint, it can also heighten social inequities.
โIt can be daunting,โ Graham acknowledges. He doesnโt yet know what the limits will be for local collaboration, or how big is too big when it comes to the number of stakeholders involved. โBut regardless of whether we can leverage all that, there is a need to have these conversations,โ he concludes. And the future benefits of pursuing integration seem worth the present uncertainty, whether surrounding communities work with Fort Collins or not.
He also expects to enjoy cost savings for rate-payers once formerly separate budgets and projects are aligned. โOne area would conduct a study that no one else knew about, but now, that one study can do more by serving all buckets,โ he explains.
Integration also promises to make Fort Collins more resilient in the face of regional water pressures. โLooking at the Colorado River Compact and the future of northern Colorado, we want to be strategic about the resources that we have,โ Graham says. The time for inefficiency has passed. Says Graham, โThe community is ready for this conversation to happen. Weโre the stewards of this conversation and the protection of this resource.โ
Roadmaps for Future One Water Communities
On the campus of Colorado State University, just a few miles from Jason Grahamโs office, Mazdak Arabi, PhD, is putting the final touches on a report thatโs likely to help many communities across the country understand and embark on One Water integration. The research was performed at Arabiโs One Water Solutions Institute, established within CSU to develop science-driven, evidence-based pathways to water integration. Marrying pure science with practical application is โextremely rewarding for me and the other folks in the One Water Solutions Institute,โ says Arabi.
Dr. Mazdak Arabi Photo credit: Colorado State University
The report cites a ladder that they can climb to approach One Water ideals. โItโs a self-assessment framework, not a competitive comparison,โ Arabi emphasizes. But, like similar rubrics used by Leadership for Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) to recognize sustainable construction, the forthcoming self-assessment describes three levels of One Water involvement: Onboarding, Progressing and Advancing. Each level describes specific actions that municipalities can follow to identify where theyโre at and how to progress.
There is no ultimate state of One Water perfection. Even the most accomplished โlevel threeโ municipalities, those who have made the most One Water advances, will continue to self-monitor and engage their communities in pursuit of ongoing innovation. That quest promises dividends for entire communities, says Arabi.
โAt the core of our research, weโre looking at ways to make a community more livable, more resilient to changes in population or climate or other pressures,โ Arabi explains.
Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. WEco is funded by multiple donors. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed at wateredco.org.
Also on the agenda for Will, Velasco, and other Western Colorado lawmakers is water issues. Earlier this month, the lawmakers both attended the announcement of the Colorado River Districtโs purchase ofย the Shoshone water rightย at the Hotel Colorado in Glenwood Springs…
โPurchase of the Shoshone water rights keeps water in the river. Thatโs good for fish, thatโs good for recreation, thatโs good for agriculture, thatโs good for West Slope Colorado,โ Will said.
The River District will pay nearly $100 million for the water right, and is fundraising now to be able to complete the purchase. Velasco and Will were both confident the assembly would be able to help with the funding to see the deal to the finish line.
Westwide Snow Water Equivalent percent NRCS 1991-2020 Median January 6, 2024.
Click the link to read the article on the KUNC website (Alex Hager). Here’s an excerpt:
January 2, 2024
Across the West, the winter is off to a dry start. Wide swaths of the Rocky Mountains have lower-than-average snow totals for this time of year, but scientists say thereโs still plenty of time to end the โsnow droughtโ and close the gap. High-altitude snowpack has big implications for the regionโs water supply. Two-thirds of the Colorado Riverโs waterย starts as snowย in Coloradoโs mountains before melting and flowing to about 40 million people across seven states. Nearly every part of Colorado, Utah and Wyoming has significantly less snow than usual for late December. Theย latest dataย from a region-wide network of snow sensors shows snow in many areas with snow totals around 60 or 70% of normal.
โItโs really going to be dependent on what we see in January and February,โ said Becky Bolinger, Coloradoโs assistant state climatologist. โWeโre really going to need an active January and February to make up these deficits and be okay.โ
“New plot using the nClimGrid data, which is a better source than PRISM for long-term trends. Of course, the combined reservoir contents increase from last year, but the increase is less than 2011 and looks puny compared to the โholeโ in the reservoirs. The blue Loess lines subtly change. Last year those lines ended pointing downwards. This year they end flat-ish. 2023 temps were still above the 20th century average, although close. Another interesting aspect is that the 20C Mean and 21C Mean lines on the individual plots really donโt change much. Finally, the 2023 Natural Flows are almost exactly equal to 2019. (17.678 maf vs 17.672 maf). For all the hoopla about how this was record-setting year, the fact is that this year was significantly less than 2011 (20.159 maf) and no different than 2019” — Brad Udall
Even a few consecutive wet winters arenโt enough to seriously fix the supply-demand imbalance that fuels the Westโs water crisis. More than 20 years of dry conditions, fueled by climate change, have shrunk the Colorado Riverโs water supply, and policymakers have beenย unable to agreeย on significant, long-term cutbacks to water use. Experts say it would take five or six consecutive above-average winters to close that supply-demand gap, which is unlikely to happen as climate change makes the regionย warmer and drier. Dan McEvoy, regional climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center and Desert Research Institute, said last yearโs wet winter was an โanomaly.โ
โLots of data, lots of research, projections, modeling, all point to this continuing trend of warmer winters, less snow and in some cases, less precipitation,โ he said.
U.S. winter (Dec-Feb) precipitation compared to the 1981-2010 average for the past 7 strong El Niรฑo events. Details differ, but most show wetter-than-average conditions across some part of the South. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on data from NOAA Physical Science Lab online tool.
From the wettest three-month period along the Front Range to the stateโs largest hailstone, 2023 was a year of climate extremes for Colorado โ and the world. After three years of cool waters, the currents in the Pacific Oceanย flipped to an El Niรฑoย cycle โ an ocean climate pattern that can have a profound effect on landlocked, mountainous Colorado.ย Typically, a strong El Niรฑo pattern increases the likelihood of increased snow across much of the state, said state climatologist Russ Schumacher. So far this winter, however, the state has received less snow than is typical for this time of year โ a stark contrast to last winter, during which heavy snowfall and a wet spring refilled reservoirs and waterways, kicked off the growing season and tamped down on wildfires.
Historically, both the El Niรฑo warming pattern and the related cooling pattern known as La Niรฑa mean more predictable weather patterns for Colorado. With global temperatures soaring โ 2023 wasย the worldโs warmest ever recordedย โ Schumacher that predictability might not hold true for 2024 and beyond…While it has become increasingly more difficult to predict seasonal climate patterns, Schumacher said extreme weather events โ fromย hailstormsย andย tornadoesย toย wildfiresย โ are becoming the new [normal] for Colorado.
They find it was the warmest year on record by a large margin, at 1.48C above preindustrial levels, higher than the 1.43C that JRA-55 reported earlier this week
